Survey of 102 cities reveals more than 40,000 new viruses

A study involving Brazilian researchers analyzed samples from subway stations, hospitals, bank branches, soil, and sewage in 31 countries. The researchers used genetic screening with a tool developed at the University of São Paulo.

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo

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A global mapping project revealed tens of thousands of previously unknown viruses circulating in environments with high human traffic, such as transit stations, hospitals, and sewage systems. The study, detailed in an article published in the journal Nature Communications, analyzed 2,922 samples collected in 102 cities across 31 countries, including São Paulo, Brazil. An international team, including Brazilian researchers, used this data to compile the UPVAtlas (Urban and Peri-urban RNA Virus Atlas), cataloging 54,945 viral species, 77% of which had never been described before. The study sheds light on vast, previously unknown biological diversity, revealing the complexity of microorganisms invisible in everyday city life.

The research focused on RNA viruses, which store their genetic instructions in RNA molecules rather than DNA. These viruses cause diseases such as dengue, Zika, the flu, yellow fever, and, most recently, COVID-19. Much of what is known about this group comes from studying these diseases.

“We were familiar with several disease-causing viruses, but we greatly underestimated viral diversity in nature. When you search for a virus based on a disease, there’s already a bias because all viruses that don’t cause disease end up being ignored. Once we’re able to analyze what’s present in a sample without that bias, we gain a broader view of viral diversity,” says Antônio Pedro Camargo, a professor in the Department of Biochemistry at the Institute of Chemistry of the University of São Paulo (IQ-USP) and one of the authors of the study. He is also a member of the Biology of Bacteria and Bacteriophages Research Center (RIDC B3), a Research, Innovation, and Dissemination Center supported by FAPESP.

Metatranscriptome

The MetaSUB consortium, which investigates the microbiome of urban environments, collected most of the material – 1,862 of the 2,922 samples. Between March and July of 2020, during the pandemic, the consortium collected the samples using a standardized protocol. A swab was rubbed against frequently touched surfaces, such as handrails, benches, and ticket machines. The remaining samples were retrieved from a public sequencing database and represent various aspects of the urban environment, including soil, sediment, freshwater, sewage, and greenhouses.

The materials were analyzed using metatranscriptomics, a technique that allows for the simultaneous sequencing of all RNA molecules present in a sample. “Imagine you pick up a handful of dirt. In there, you’ll find bacteria, bacterial viruses [bacteriophages], other microorganisms, insects – everything you can imagine,” Camargo explains. Rather than isolating each organism, the researchers extract and sequence the entire set of RNA from the sample.

The result is a large volume of unidentified fragments. “You’ll have a bunch of genome fragments, and at first, you won’t know what they are. They’re just sequences of letters. The challenge is figuring out what each piece of the genome corresponds to. Is it a bacterium? Is it a virus? If it’s a virus, what type?” the researcher explains.

This screening was performed using geNomad, a bioinformatics tool developed by Camargo. According to him, the program “allows us to process millions of genetic material sequence fragments and determine which correspond to viral genomes.”

To organize their findings, the researchers compared the sequences of an enzyme present in all RNA viruses, RdRP (RNA-dependent RNA polymerase), which is responsible for viral replication, and reconstructed the phylogenetic relationships among them. Some sequences were so different from anything previously described that the authors proposed creating new categories to accommodate them, including two phyla, a new class, and several unclassified groups. The proposal is preliminary. “This is all computational. You need more information to formally state that these are, in fact, completely new groups,” Camargo notes.

However, the survey revealed only a fraction of the actual microbial diversity. The accumulation curves, which measure the number of previously unknown viruses that appear with each new sample analyzed, did not stabilize in virtually any type of sample. This is a sign that the nearly 55,000 cataloged viruses represent only a fraction of what exists in these locations.

“There’s a very high level of viral diversity – greater than we previously knew. I think that’s the main point of the article,” says Camargo.

Hosts

This discovery does not mean that cities are teeming with new viruses capable of causing human disease. Only about one-third of the sequences had potential hosts identified, and more than half of those corresponded to viruses that infect bacteria.

However, a small portion has the potential to infect vertebrates. By cross-referencing the data with the Global Virome in One Network (VIRION) database, which compiles documented associations between viruses and vertebrates, the authors identified 60 viruses with a high probability of infecting humans and 47 that could infect other mammals. Of the 60 viruses, 19 were found in urban environments, and 34 were found in animal samples.

The study also identified 166 bacteriophages, which are viruses that specialize in attacking and destroying bacteria, with a history of infecting four strains from the ESKAPE group, which includes clinically significant microorganisms such as Staphylococcus aureus. According to the study, this finding could lead to research on using these viruses to combat these pathogens through a treatment known as phage therapy.

Surveillance

In general, urban surfaces, such as streets, banks, stations, and stores, exhibited lower viral diversity than natural environments, such as soil and sediment. According to the authors, this indicates that human activity tends to homogenize these communities. However, sewage was an exception, exhibiting one of the highest levels of diversity in the survey. This finding reinforces the potential of sewage for environmental monitoring.

Among hospital samples, São Paulo, Brazil, and Islamabad, Pakistan, had a higher abundance of vertebrate-pathogenic viruses than Baltimore, United States, and Seoul, South Korea. Camargo urges caution when interpreting these data: “It’s very difficult to infer any biological explanation from that. It may simply be a sampling issue.” The study itself acknowledges this limitation; some countries are represented by only one environment, making it impossible to separate the effect of location from that of the country.

UPVAtlas compiles sequences from different cities and environments into a single catalog, creating a starting point for future comparisons. It will be possible to compare a city’s current viral community with its future one and investigate how viral communities change depending on the environment and location.

Understanding this diversity is important to Camargo precisely because viruses are constantly evolving. “This process is closely related to their ability to infect organisms because viruses only survive if they can reproduce within host cells,” he says.

About São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP)

The São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) is a public institution with the mission of supporting scientific research in all fields of knowledge by awarding scholarships, fellowships and grants to investigators linked with higher education and research institutions in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. FAPESP is aware that the very best research can only be done by working with the best researchers internationally. Therefore, it has established partnerships with funding agencies, higher education, private companies, and research organizations in other countries known for the quality of their research and has been encouraging scientists funded by its grants to further develop their international collaboration. You can learn more about FAPESP at www.fapesp.br/en and visit FAPESP news agency at www.agencia.fapesp.br/en to keep updated with the latest scientific breakthroughs FAPESP helps achieve through its many programs, awards and research centers. You may also subscribe to FAPESP news agency at http://agencia.fapesp.br/subscribe.

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Journal

Nature Communications

DOI

10.1038/s41467-026-73605-z

Article Title

Diversity and distinctive characteristics of the global RNA virome in urban and peri-urban environments

Newly discovered viruses reveal an evolutionary missing link

Using AI-powered tools and vast DNA databases, University of Miami researchers identified previously unknown viruses that offer new clues about the origins of life

University of Miami

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image: 

Abelardo Aguilar at work in the laboratory of Antoni Luque Santolaria. 

 

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Credit: Ingrid Miranda/University of Miami

Researchers at the University of Miami have identified a group of previously unknown viruses that bridge an evolutionary gap between viruses and cellular protein compartments, a discovery with important implications for both biotechnology and scientists’ understanding of the origins of life.

The findings, published in Nature Communications, challenge the theory that these cellular compartments, called encapsulins, simply evolved from viruses. Instead, the researchers found evidence that viruses and encapsulins evolved from one another repeatedly over millions of years.

The researchers focused on a group of proteins that adopt a specific three-dimensional structure called the HK97-fold and assemble into protein shells. They are found in both viruses and encapsulins. The newly identified viruses—whose genomes are smaller and simpler than those of other viruses that form HK97-fold protein shells—share features with both viruses and encapsulins, making them a possible missing link between the two that could shed light on how complex biological systems first emerged. 

“What makes the HK97-fold proteins so interesting is that they can form shells that enclose biochemical reactions in cellular lineages, archaea, and bacteria. But they also serve genetic purposes in viruses, storing and protecting their viral genome,” said Abelardo Aguilar, the first author and a Ph.D. student in the Department of Biology at the University of Miami College of Arts and Sciences. “These proteins build compartments with two different roles, which connects directly with the study of the origin of life and its early evolution because if you think about it, life at its core is about enclosing reactions and also enclosing information that can be inherited so those reactions can happen in the future.”

To identify these new viruses, Aguilar worked under the supervision of Antoni Luque Santolaria, an associate professor in the Department of Biology who has secondary appointments in the Department of Physics in the College of Arts and Sciences and the Department of Chemical, Environmental and Materials Engineering in the College of Engineering, and the senior author of the study, which included collaborators across different institutions. The team used bioinformatics tools, biophysical models, and AI-based tools, including protein language models and AlphaFold, to mine structural information from databases containing billions of DNA sequences. The sequences in the databases—which included IMG/M, a database affiliated with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Joint Genome Institute and the University of California, Berkeley—come from samples of soil, seawater, wastewater, the human gut, and other environments that were collected around the world.

“The majority of viruses cannot be grown in the lab. But now through sequencing, we have access to information on viruses for which we don’t know the host, that we can’t culture in the lab, but that are everywhere,” Luque explained. “That means there are multiple questions in relation to evolution and how viruses have adapted to the world that it’s now possible to explore bioinformatically.”

The Nature Communications article also outlines the potential molecular mechanism by which viruses and encapsulins may have evolved from one another. This mechanism shows how procapsids, which are immature viral protein shells (capsids), could allow evolutionary transitions and carry both genomic and metabolic roles.

“One implication of this research is the possibility that viral capsids could also facilitate biochemical reactions, which would open up the potential roles that capsids have in environments as a whole,” Aguilar explained.

These findings raise new questions about viruses that Aguilar and Luque said warrant further investigation.

Antoni Luque Santolaria Photo: Jenny Abreu/University of Miami

“When we’re looking at viruses, we tend to look only at the particles that are infective, and this study points out that we might need to start putting more emphasis on the non-infective versions of the virus and what other functions those viral-like particles may have that we have overlooked in the past.”

The research, which was supported by funding from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and the U.S. National Science Foundation, demonstrates the potential of new AI-based bioinformatics tools to explore other unanswered questions about viruses.

“If you have the right question and you pair it with the right tools and physical insights, it gives researchers an opportunity to look at viruses in a way that we didn’t have an opportunity to do before,” Luque said. “There are evolution questions, but there are also questions about emerging pathogens or emerging viruses. The set of tools that we use can be moved forward in different contexts.”

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Journal

Nature Communications

DOI

10.1038/s41467-026-78136-1

Method of Research

Data/statistical analysis

Article Title

Small viruses reveal bidirectional evolution between HK97-fold viruses and encapsulins via procapsids

Article Publication Date

14-Oct-2026

 

New tool closes gap on untapped potential of phages

University of Otago

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A new tool to mutate bacteriophages – viruses that infect bacteria – provides a “big leap” forward in both our understanding of how they function, and our ability to harness their full potential.

Developed by researchers in the University of Otago – Ōtākou Whakaihu Waka, New Zealand, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, the method features on the latest cover of prestigious international journal Nature Microbiology.

Senior author Professor Peter Fineran says bacteriophages, or simply phages, have “huge potential” to combat the antimicrobial resistance crisis, and for increasing sustainable agriculture as an alternative to agrochemicals, because they can destroy bacteria.  

“But our knowledge of phages is probably like the understanding of antibiotics back in the 1950s. Many phage genes are currently in the area of microbial dark matter – encoding functions we just don’t understand – which is limiting our ability to use phages in healthcare and biotechnology.

“This new development is a big leap in how we can rapidly understand phage biology and then use that knowledge to make phages work better to help achieve our goals.” 

Co-lead author Dr Manuela Fuchs says the new method allows for genome-wide mutagenesis of bacteriophages using CRISPR-Cas technology.

The researchers utilised transposon insertion sequencing – using a mobile piece of DNA which can jump in and disrupt a gene – combined with CRISPR-anti-CRISPR-based selection, to select phages that have been mutated. This allows them to identify genes that are essential and genes that are non-essential for phage survival.

“Once we had that established, we thought we could expand the technique and also use it to add genes directly into the phage genomes. We essentially found it is possible to load additional genes on that transposon, not just our anti-CRISPR protein. While we added a fluorescent marker, it could be used to, for example, add additional anti-defence genes to phages, to improve their therapeutic potential,” Dr Fuchs says.

Senior author Dr Leah Smith says the method enables genes to be automatically inserted somewhere while maintaining phage function.

“This is a systematic, broadly applicable, and cost-effective way to not only investigate gene function, but also rapidly engineer phage genomes.

“This opens up new opportunities for both fundamental research and future therapeutic development.”

One particular example of this would be biofilms, which can cause hard-to-treat infections on prosthesis implants and medical devices.

“With this new technique, we could quickly load phages to have more things that stop some bacterial defences so that they can be harnessed to kill pathogens more easily,” Dr Smith says.

Funding: 

This research was supported by Professor Fineran’s Royal Society of New Zealand – Te Apārangi James Cook Research Fellowship, Dr Smith’s Royal Society Marsden Fund grant and L’Oréal-UNESCO For Women in Science Fellowship, Dr Fuchs’ Feodor Lynen Research Fellowship from the Alexander von Humboldt Stiftung, and Natalie Kyte’s University of Otago Doctoral Scholarship.
 

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Journal

Nature Microbiology

DOI

10.1038/s41564-026-02486-1

Article Title

Defining the essential genome of diverse phages with phage Tn-seq

Article Publication Date

25-Sep-2026

25 Years After Amerithrax: The Changing Landscape Of Biosecurity – Analysis




September 21, 2026
Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA)

By Aayushi Sharma and Ajey Lele

Key Takeaways:

The case never quite closed. Anthrax letters after 9/11 killed five. FBI shut Amerithrax in 2010 on USAMRIID’s Bruce Ivins (suicide, 2008); Hatfill won a settlement after a false-accusation suit. An independent review said the evidence fit Ivins but did not prove him. Brief: bioterror became health, police, intel, and security at once.

What followed. U.S. Bioterrorism Act (2002), Project BioShield (2004), DHS BioWatch. WHO IHR (2005), GHSI (2001). Surveillance now includes wastewater, pharmacies, animals, plants—One Health with WOAH and FAO still loosely joined. Attribution stays hard; the text notes mail, air, and other paths without a recipe.

Dual-use and a thin treaty. Synthesis, editing, and AI speed vaccines and sequencing; consortium DNA-order checks are mostly voluntary. The brief flags LLM and dual-use risk, not a method. BWC still lacks verification and a standing S&T body; 2011 review named terrorism; UNSCR 1540 and the Australia Group fill gaps. COVID showed accident and attack share the same kit. Author: keep funding detection, stockpiles, and the talks.

The 2001 anthrax attacks in the US led to the emergence of biological terrorism as a public health, law enforcement, intelligence, and national security problem, highlighting the need for an integrated approach to addressing the threat. Advances in biotechnology, synthetic biology, and emerging technologies have defined the biological threat landscape over the past 25 years.

Introduction

The deadly attacks of 11 September 2001 were followed by another critical terrorist incident in the United States, wherein anonymous letters laced with the deadly anthrax spores were sent to several media companies and post offices. The attacks claimed the lives of five people through the inhalation of anthrax and infected several others who came in contact with the postal envelopes. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) codenamed the investigation ‘Amerithrax’.[1] The ‘Amerithrax Task Force’ was created to determine the source of this terrorist attack. The FBI subsequently released an ‘Amerithrax Investigation Report’ detailing the course of the investigation.[2] The investigation focused primarily on scientists associated with the US biodefence establishment, especially the US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID) at Fort Detrick, Maryland.


The investigation subsequently went through a series of phases which were deemed controversial. Several scientists were designated as ‘persons of interest’ and came under surveillance and investigation. In several cases, the suspects also pushed back against the allegations of deliberately releasing anthrax. One known suspect, Steven Hatfill, a pathologist and a biological weapons expert, ultimately received a large government settlement after pursuing legal action over being falsely accused in connection with the attacks.[3] In 2008, another biodefence scientist, Bruce Ivins, a senior biodefence researcher at USAMRIID who was identified as the principal suspect, died by suicide.[4] The FBI formally closed the investigation in 2010, concluding that Ivins was the actual culprit and that he had acted alone. However, an independent scientific review found that the evidence was consistent with Ivins being the culprit, but still inadequate to conclusively establish his responsibility.[5]

Along with the rapid investigations, the anthrax attacks also triggered a major national public health and law enforcement response, widespread disruption to postal services, and extensive decontamination efforts. Executed only a week after one of the worst terrorist attacks in modern history, the anthrax attacks added to the already heightened threat perceptions regarding terrorism. As a result of these attacks, biological terrorism emerged as a public health, law enforcement, intelligence, and national security problem, highlighting the need for an integrated approach to addressing the threat. Biological terrorism or bioterrorism, however, was not a novel phenomenon. There have been numerous accounts of non-state actors using or attempting to use hazardous biological materials as weapons to create widespread harm.[6]


This brief addresses response mechanisms, bio-surveillance, and emerging technology challenges to contextualise where the world stands today on bio-preparedness, 25 years after the 2001 Anthrax attacks. It explores the critical implications and opportunities for the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) in shaping the future of global biosafety and biosecurity. The brief evaluates how two-and-a-half decades of science, technology, and policy evolution have shaped our preparedness against biological and toxic threats, and the challenges that persist.

Biodefence and Response Mechanisms

Response mechanisms and biodefence are a critical interdisciplinary field focused on protecting human life and agriculture. Key organisations involved include laboratories studying biological science, agricultural research centres, medical sciences, public health agencies, pharmaceutical companies, and national security agencies. Over the last 25 years, states worldwide have developed specific agencies associated with biological threats. Some states have developed advanced biodefence strategies and institutional mechanisms, while others are still working on them. It is also important to recognise that this threat has always been dynamic, so continued attention is required when deciding on response mechanisms and biodefence practices.

When it comes to addressing the risks posed by biological weapons, it is important to focus on the unique characteristics and vulnerabilities regarding biological agents. These agents include infectious pathogens and biotoxins that are non-transmissible. These weapons often have delayed effects and variable incubation periods, which add to the challenges of building robust response mechanisms for such threats. The case of anthrax attacks in the US made it fundamentally clear that investigations into biological weapons attacks are often met with attribution challenges. The challenge of effective attribution persists and is often exacerbated by rapid advances in biotechnology and easily accessible biological design tools.


The fragmented nature of biological weapons dissemination also challenges preparedness and response. While in the US, anthrax spores were dispersed through the postal mail, such agents can also be disseminated through aerosols or even contamination of important resources such as crops or water supplies, causing widespread damage. Therefore, as these threats rapidly evolve, delivery mechanisms for such agents are easily accessible to non-state actors, further complicating attribution.

The 2001 anthrax attacks exposed massive vulnerabilities in the public health detection and response systems, intelligence gathering, and inter-agency coordination mechanisms in the US. The US hence worked to build national capacities through the Public Health Security and Bioterrorism Preparedness Act of 2002 to strengthen prevention, preparedness, and response mechanisms against biothreats and to develop stringent standards for securing dangerous biological agents. The Act also imposed strict regulations on the possession, use, and handling of specific biological agents. To build on these response capabilities, Congress enacted the Project BioShield Act in 2004, which incentivised companies to research, develop, and stockpile medical countermeasures against CBRN threats.[7] Incentivising research in medical countermeasures also heightens capabilities to address novel bio-risks and leverage technological advancements to improve detection and response mechanisms.


Globally, funding surged for biodefence and preparedness research, as well as for high-containment facilities, to build scientific, defence, and policy capabilities to counter such threats.[8] The preparedness gaps to deal with bioterrorism threats were significantly highlighted in the aftermath of the anthrax attacks. The World Health Organization (WHO) developed the International Health Regulations in 2005 to legally require signatory countries to build national capacities for detecting, analysing, and surveilling public health emergencies of international concern.[9]

Additionally, the Global Health Security Initiative (GHSI) emerged in 2001 as a cross-regional multilateral grouping to improve cooperation in public health preparedness mechanisms to respond to CBRN terrorism threats, with WHO as the technical advisor.[10] The anthrax attacks thus led to growing attention on improving biodefence, international coordination in public health preparedness, and response capabilities, not just within the US but worldwide.

Thus, in 2001, bioterrorism emerged as a pressing challenge requiring coordination across public health, national security, and law-and-order agencies. However, contemporary issues relating to emerging technologies, AI integration, dual-use research of concern (DURC), and the evolving capabilities of biotechnology are creating new pathways to biological misuse and redefining the biosecurity landscape.

Bio-Situational Awareness and Intelligence Gathering Mechanisms

One of the most effective ways to address novel threats is to build robust disease surveillance systems that track unusual occurrences that may signal a public health emergency. Disease surveillance is therefore a key pillar of early recognition and detection. Bio-surveillance essentially involves gathering and analysing relevant data to provide periodic information on biological threats affecting human, animal, plant, and environmental health. Strong bio-surveillance systems build bio-situational awareness and early detection, improving national and global capacities to address bio-risks.


Various approaches may be used to develop such systems, such as syndromic surveillance, which involves gathering data through public health officials reporting on suspected threats based on the reported symptoms of a given population, or event-based surveillance, which involves a wider range of information systems involving newspaper reports, social media, or publicly reported incidents.[11] Epidemiological studies have also become central to early detection by understanding disease patterns and transmission.

However, the anthrax attacks revealed that public health surveillance may not only deal with accidental bio-risks but also deliberate attacks. The resulting policy shift led the US to treat biological risks as a national security problem. The Department of Homeland Security created the BioWatch system as a direct result. BioWatch served as an early-warning system to detect the aerosolised release of certain pathogens through a network of sensors.[12]

Gathering public health data and developing bio-situational awareness is beneficial not only in the context of deliberate biothreats but also accidental ones. Therefore, even after 25 years of terrorist attacks using anthrax, efforts are underway to develop global bio-surveillance mechanisms to build transnational capacities to tackle such threats. Integrated bio-surveillance efforts would require simultaneous data collection from several sources, including public health institutions, high-containment laboratories, pharmacies and wastewater facilities.[13] Current efforts extend surveillance beyond public health data to include animal, plant, and environmental health. This One Health approach to bio-surveillance and intelligence gathering requires active global cooperation frameworks that go beyond national implementation.[14]


To build global coordination mechanisms, organisations like the WHO have worked to develop early warning detection systems and transnational response systems to address the threats posed by pathogens with pandemic potential. WHO has several initiatives, including the International Pathogen Surveillance Network (IPSN) and the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN), which provide technical coordination to identify and respond to public health emergencies.

The Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources Initiative (EIOS) and the WHO Hub for Pandemic and Epidemic Intelligence also provide technical assistance to countries to improve detection and monitoring capabilities.[15] While these initiatives exist, building an integrated approach to intelligence sharing and data gathering, along with inter-agency coordination, such as the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), for a One Health framework remains a challenge.

Translating these bio-surveillance capabilities into effective early warning systems also comes with its own set of nuances. For global early warning systems to work well in deliberate and accidental disease outbreaks, capacities need to be built towards interoperable systems capable of operating in diverse demographic and geographic settings.[16] One major driver of continued efforts to build better, more integrated bio-surveillance, early warning, and detection systems is the increased perception of biological risk in recent years. Even after more than two decades of anthrax attacks, the challenge of keeping biological weapons capabilities out of the hands of non-state actors persists due to the novel risks posed by artificial intelligence (AI) as well as developments in biotechnology.

Emerging Technologies: Boon and Bane

Rapid advances in biotechnology, synthetic biology, gene editing, AI and related technologies are strengthening biodefence while simultaneously lowering barriers to biological misuse. Developments in biotechnology continue to offer immense potential to enhance biological defence capacities by supporting research into rapid detection, diagnosis, and improved medical countermeasures, including vaccine development and other prophylactic treatments. Advances in life science research capabilities have also expanded the potential of gene sequencing methods such as metagenomic sequencing to provide simultaneous, independent analysis of the total genetic material in a sample.[17]

Biotechnology developments, when considered alongside accessible AI integration, also present opportunities to improve drug discovery, vaccine development, and other pharmaceutical interventions. AI models can also help with biological data analysis, as well as structuring and synthesising large databases to support research. Targeted attention is also being paid to improving medical measures against drug-resistant bacteria and viruses through frontier AI models along with improved gene editing capabilities.[18] Therefore, a case can be made for responsible and governed use of AI in biotechnology and life science research. This integration could help address longstanding concerns and improve the biosecurity landscape.

While the opportunities presented by AI and biotechnology are widely recognised, they are also accompanied by concerns about potential risks, especially in the absence of integrated governance and regulatory frameworks. Improvements in biotechnology capabilities over the years have also created space for faster, cheaper, and more accessible DNA synthesis technologies, driving market expansion among DNA synthesis providers. However, screening protocols for ordered DNA sequences have not been implemented to the same extent.

These capabilities require structured, standardised, and uniform screening regulations to verify customer identities comprehensively. These regulations are crucial for ensuring that DNA sequences of potentially dangerous pathogens are only provided to legitimate research facilities with adequate institutional biosafety standards in place. Currently, DNA providers primarily belong to the International Gene Synthesis Consortium, a commercial group of providers in the global market.[19] The Consortium has established the Regulated Pathogen Database (RPD) to verify given orders and detect the sequences of concern.[20]

They may either conduct customer screening to establish the identity of the ordering parties or screen the sequences ordered to identify potentially dangerous and controlled pathogens or biotoxins. However, without a legal mandate within the Consortium, screening DNA synthesis orders before fulfilment is largely voluntary. This staggered safeguards landscape creates gaps in screening and contributes to biosecurity concerns about unregulated access to hazardous biological materials.

The integration of AI into this biotechnology landscape therefore adds another layer of complexity. While certain frontier AI models may be instrumental in synthesising large datasets to aid biological research, they may also lower technical thresholds, especially open-source large language models (LLMs), by disseminating information on biological design.[21] A study auditing 32 LLMs found that most complied with requests to design and generate novel toxin sequences.[22] Similarly, recent scientific research shows that generative AI models can develop genome sequences for novel viruses that target bacteria resistant to natural bacteriophages.[23] This development also raised concerns about diverting these capabilities to engineer drug-resistant, human-infecting viruses.


Safeguards on the end of AI developers also become significant in this case. Anthropic’s newer models have safety classifiers in place, with evaluations conducted on refusal benchmarks to assess the models’ ability to handle prompts related to the hazardous use of biological weapons.[24] However, despite these mechanisms, Anthropic’s recent threat assessment report revealed several attempts to bypass the safety classifiers and retrieve questionable information on gene editing of infectious pathogens and toxin design.[25] Thus, in the context of deliberate biothreats, greater access to bio-design tools and open-source AI platforms equipped with the requisite knowledge are among the most pressing challenges in the current global biosecurity discourse.

Strengthening Global Norms for Biosecurity

Biosecurity is a crucial pillar of the international security architecture. Considering the broad spectrum of biological risks, ranging from natural and accidental outbreaks to deliberate weaponisation of infectious pathogens and biotoxins, the global norms on biosecurity are embedded in various institutional mechanisms. Major international frameworks on deliberate biothreats include the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) and UNSCR 1540, while the WHO sets norms for public health issues such as biosafety standards, disease surveillance, detection, preparedness, and response mechanisms. The voluntary export control groupings such as the Australia Group are significant in managing transnational trade in controlled substances with relevance to chemical and biological weapons.

The ‘biological weapon taboo’, or the perceptions against the use of biological materials as weapons, was recognised through the prohibition of use under the 1925 Geneva Protocol.[26] This development was further strengthened and legally enforced through the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC), which entered into force in 1975.[27] While the BTWC has largely succeeded in establishing the norm against biological weapons, contemporary challenges relate to enforcing these norms through practical frameworks that adequately address emerging risks.

The Convention legitimises the use of biological materials for peaceful life science research while prohibiting any use not intended to be peaceful. In theory, this may seem like a significant qualifier for what the regime permits and prohibits. However, questions and uncertainties arise as the dual-use characteristics of life science research and subsequent AI integration in biotechnology take shape.

With frontier AI models, scientists are increasingly studying capacity-building in medical countermeasures to address drug-resistant pathogens, which requires careful use of gene-editing technologies. However, the same capabilities can also be diverted towards more lethal use of genetically engineered pathogens for harmful purposes. Therefore, without international verification mechanisms, determining the legitimacy of biological research for peaceful purposes becomes a mammoth challenge for the existing regime.

Current structural challenges in the Convention also include the lack of a Science and Technology Advisory Body to monitor and routinely conduct a scientific review of the treaty. This development would be necessary to adequately assess the Convention’s capacity to address emerging biosecurity risks. The ongoing working group discussions to strengthen the Convention are a significant step forward in this regard. The Convention’s scientific capacities can also be enhanced by developing networks of high-containment laboratories with strong biosafety standards.


The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has provided a precedent for such a structure, with designated biomedical and environmental facilities also in place.[28] Such a network for the BTWC could facilitate independent, regulated research into sequencing novel pathogens and toxins to develop stronger verification mechanisms for the treaty. Building effective regulatory practices without infringing on or curtailing scientific progress is a pressing challenge for the BTWC.

Alongside laboratory security measures, research verification, international cooperation and compliance, efforts to prevent misuse by non-state actors are also significant to strengthening global biosecurity norms. The anthrax attacks of 2001 widened the perceptions around biosecurity to include the threats posed by non-state actors as well as inadequate regulatory oversight of research facilities. Hence, stronger norms backed by practical frameworks are essential for improving biosecurity in response to bioterrorism threats.

Deliberations at BWC review conferences signal a careful yet staggered recognition of the threat of bioterrorism. The final declaration of the seventh review conference of 2011, for the first time, condemned terrorism ‘in all its forms and manifestations’ in the context of using biological agents, further highlighting the role of UNSCR 1540.[29] In the absence of verification and implementation mechanisms for the Convention, instruments such as UNSCR 1540 and its oversight mechanism through the 1540 Committee provide important frameworks for advancing global security protocols against bioterrorism.[30]

Given the plethora of emerging challenges surrounding synthetic biology, open-source AI models, and rapidly evolving biotechnology capabilities, institutionalising appropriate safeguards and building an integrated approach is essential to strengthening biosecurity normative frameworks.

While the anthrax attacks presented a case of deliberate use of biotoxins to inflict harm, hence a biological weapons attack, the experience of COVID-19 presented the need to consider pandemic preparedness and response as an international security issue.[31] Many response and biodefence capabilities that support defence against accidental biothreats and natural outbreaks also support defence against deliberate threats. Thus, lessons should be learned from the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, and the institutional inadequacies that hindered global coordination should be addressed to build international capacity.

Conclusion

The anthrax attacks of 2001 revealed that mitigating biological threats requires an integrated approach towards bringing together public health, law enforcement, bio-surveillance and national security frameworks. Twenty-five years later, amid a rapidly advancing emerging risk landscape, the reality remains the same. The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 is particularly significant in this regard. The pandemic exposed gaps in current detection and preparedness capabilities and underscored that global biodefence mechanisms must support robust, transnational early detection and response.


Developments in biotechnology, synthetic biology, gene editing, and AI models offer immense opportunities to advance life science research. Still, they also heighten concerns about access to biological materials, lowered technological thresholds, and deliberate misuse. While AI integration in biotechnology cannot replace tacit laboratory knowledge, institutions need to strengthen biosafety mechanisms and regulatory oversight to prevent accidental exposure and outbreaks. Similarly, safeguards around DNA synthesis acquisition and screening mechanisms are essential to reduce perceived threats around the availability of controlled and high-risk sequences.

Additionally, effective bio-surveillance mechanisms become important for improving early-warning systems, preparedness, and detection capabilities. While national frameworks for addressing bio-risks exist in practice, existing international frameworks are still essential for building multilateral and transnational capacity against these risks. Efforts are underway to address longstanding issues in the BTWC, especially regarding legally binding verification mechanisms, international assistance and cooperation, and stronger compliance.[32] While these developments largely reflect state obligations, continued deliberations on threats posed by non-state actors are also crucial within the Convention.

After more than two decades, the anthrax attacks provide a strong vantage point to evaluate the priorities of the existing biosecurity landscape. The experience of anthrax and COVID-19 indicates that biological threats cannot be treated simply as low-probability possibilities. Sustained investment in prevention, detection, attribution, medical countermeasures, and international cooperation remains essential

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Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Manohar Parrikar IDSA or of the Government of India.

About the authors:

Aayushi Sharma is a Research Analyst at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi.

Group Captain (Dr) Ajey Lele (Retd.) is the Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA. Earlier, he was a Senior Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses and a part of its Centre on Strategic Technologies. He started his professional career as an officer in the Indian Air Force, and took early retirement from the service to pursue his academic interests. He has a Masters degree in Physics from Pune University, and Masters and MPhil degrees in Defence and Strategic Studies from Madras University.

About Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA)

The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), is a non-partisan, autonomous body dedicated to objective research and policy relevant studies on all aspects of defence and security. Its mission is to promote national and international security through the generation and dissemination of knowledge on defence and security-related issues. The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) was formerly named The Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA).
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