It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Deepfakes weaponised to target Pakistan’s women leaders
B yAFP December 2, 2024 In Pakistan, deepfakes are being weaponised to smear women in the public sphere with sexual innuendo deeply damaging to their reputations in a country with conservative mores - Copyright AFP Amna YASEEN
Juliette MANSOUR, Shrouq TARIQ
Pakistani politician Azma Bukhari is haunted by a counterfeit image of herself — a sexualised deepfake video published to discredit her role as one of the nation’s few female leaders.
“I was shattered when it came into my knowledge,” said 48-year-old Bukhari, the information minister of Pakistan’s most populous province of Punjab.
Deepfakes — which manipulate genuine audio, photos or video of people into false likenesses — are becoming increasingly convincing and easier to make as artificial intelligence (AI) enters the mainstream.
In Pakistan, where media literacy is poor, they are being weaponised to smear women in the public sphere with sexual innuendo deeply damaging to their reputations in a country with conservative mores.
Bukhari — who regularly appears on TV — recalls going quiet for days after she saw the video of her face superimposed on the sexualised body of an Indian actor in a clip quickly spreading on social media.
“It was very difficult, I was depressed,” she told AFP in her home in the eastern city of Lahore.
“My daughter, she hugged me and said: ‘Mama, you have to fight it out’.”
After initially recoiling she is pressing her case at Lahore’s High Court, attempting to hold those who spread the deepfake to account.
“When I go to the court, I have to remind people again and again that I have a fake video,” she said.
– ‘A very harmful weapon’ –
In Pakistan — a country of 240 million people — internet use has risen at staggering rates recently owing to cheap 4G mobile internet.
Around 110 million Pakistanis were online this January, 24 million more than at the beginning of 2023, according to monitoring site DataReportal.
In this year’s election, deepfakes were at the centre of digital debate.
Ex-prime minister Imran Khan was jailed but his team used an AI tool to generate speeches in his voice shared on social media, allowing him to campaign from behind bars.
Men in politics are typically criticised over corruption, their ideology and status. But deepfakes have a dark side uniquely suited to tearing down women.
“When they are accused, it almost always revolves around their sex lives, their personal lives, whether they’re good mums, whether they’re good wives,” said US-based AI expert Henry Ajder.
“For that deepfakes are a very harmful weapon,” he told AFP.
In patriarchal Pakistan the stakes are high.
Women’s status is typically tied to their “honour”, generally defined as modesty and chastity. Hundreds are killed every year — often by their own families — for supposedly besmirching it.
Bukhari describes the video targeting her as “pornographic”.
But in a country where premarital sex and cohabitation are punishable offences, deepfakes can undermine reputations by planting innuendo with the suggestion of a hug or improper social mingling with men.
In October, AFP debunked a deepfake video of regional lawmaker Meena Majeed showing her hugging the male chief minister of Balochistan province.
A social media caption said: “Shamelessness has no limits. This is an insult to Baloch culture.”
Bukhari says photos of her with her husband and son have also been manipulated to imply she appeared in public with boyfriends outside her marriage.
And doctored videos regularly circulate of Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz Sharif — Bukhari’s boss — showing her dancing with opposition leaders.
Once targeted by deepfakes like these, women’s “image is seen as immoral, and the honour of the entire family is lost”, said Sadaf Khan of Pakistani non-profit Media Matters for Democracy.
“This can put them in danger,” she told AFP.
– Fighting the fakes –
Deepfakes are now prevalent across the world, but Pakistan does have legislation to combat their deployment in disinformation campaigns.
In 2016, a law was passed by Bukhari’s party “to prevent online crimes” with “cyberstalking” provisions against sharing photos or videos without consent “in a manner that harms a person”.
Bukhari believes it needs to be strengthened and backed up by investigators. “The capacity building of our cybercrime unit is very, very important,” she said.
But digital rights activists have also criticised the government for wielding such broad legislation to quash dissent.
Authorities have previously blocked YouTube and TikTok, and a ban on X — formerly Twitter — has been in place since after February elections when allegations of vote tampering spread on the site.
Pakistan-based digital rights activist Nighat Dad said blocking the sites serves only as “a quick solution for the government”.
“It’s violating other fundamental rights, which are connected to your freedom of expression, and access to information,” she told AFP.
Online harassment reaches new heights as 'emboldened manosphere' emerges: report
In the days following Donald Trump's presidential victory, an alarming surge in misogynistic rhetoric and threats against women has emerged online and in real life, according to a report from the Associated Press. Dubbed the 'emboldened manosphere', the trend has left many women feeling unsafe and compelled to take protective measures.
Sadie Perez, a 19-year-old political science student in Wisconsin profiled in AP's report, now carries pepper spray with her on campus. Her mother ordered self-defense kits for her and her sister.
This reaction stems from the rise of right-wing 'manosphere' influencers who have seized on Trump's win to amplify misogynistic content online.
A troubling trend is the appropriation of the pro-choice slogan "My body, my choice" into "Your body, my choice," a phrase that has spread rapidly online. Attributed to a post by far-right figure Nick Fuentes, it garnered 35 million views on its first day on X. The slogan has since appeared in middle schools, college campuses, and even on t-shirts — which were later removed by Amazon.
Online declarations calling to "Repeal the 19th" Amendment (which gave women the right to vote) have gained millions of views.
While Trump himself isn't directly amplifying this rhetoric, his campaign's focus on masculinity and repeated attacks on Kamala Harris's gender and race have contributed to the current climate. Dana Brown from the Pennsylvania Center for Women and Politics suggests that for some men, Trump's victory represents a chance to reclaim traditional gender roles they feel they're losing.
Despite the fear and disgust many women feel, some are fighting back. Perez and her peers are supporting each other, celebrating wins like female majorities in student government, and encouraging women to speak out against the misogynistic rhetoric. As Perez puts it, "I want to encourage my friends and the women in my life to use their voices to call out this rhetoric and to not let fear take over."
WHEN good men and women can’t speak the truth, when facts are inconvenient, when integrity and character no longer matter, when ego and self-preservation are more important than national integrity, then there is nothing left to stop the triumph of tyranny.
I find myself lost in anger and anguish. The answer for how I can go through this inner convulsion is to put pen to paper for the benefit of all those who should be deeply afraid for the future of our nation.
What is at stake in our benighted land? To put it bluntly: collective suicide is actually in progress, with conscious efforts at denial, distortion and deceit by the ruling elite, which is bent upon sowing discord and discontent through their ‘psy-ops’ techniques. This recipe for disaster will lead to the unravelling of our state and society. Erasmus wrote in The Praise of Folly (1509): “The less talent they have, the more pride, vanity and arrogance they have. All these fools, however, find other fools who applaud them.”
An illegitimate coalition of power-hungry politicos provides a democratic façade to the machinations of the deep state. Everyone is aware that the results of the Feb 8 national polls this year were manipulated in favour of those who do not represent the majority, which was denied its mandate. Some people justify the rigging by pleading that almost all previous elections were also manipulated by the actual string pullers. There is truth in this premise of political engineering by the establishment. However, the blatant misuse of power mixed with persecution and corruption within the state agencies responsible for holding the last general elections has crossed all limits. The institutions constitutionally responsible for holding free and fair elections failed miserably in their duty.
The experiment of putting together neutral, apolitical caretaker administrations for holding free and fair elections has been an abject failure. Cabinets, including the chief executives, were selected by the deep state whose agenda was perceived to be advanced by the outgoing prime minister and leader of the opposition.
The biggest disappointment has been the Election Commission of Pakistan. The chief of the electoral watchdog brought the civil services into such disrepute that his erstwhile colleagues openly condemned his conduct as undignified and unprincipled. He has caused irreparable damage to a constitutional office of great responsibility and public trust, and flouted the orders of the apex court by pandering to the political engineers running the current political charade.
Collective suicide is in progress, with conscious efforts at denial, distortion and deceit.
The judiciary, of all the premier national institutions, has suffered the most. The open bickering and infighting among the judges of the apex court has shattered the administrative and operational autonomy of the institution required to safeguard the Constitution and ensure the fair administration of justice to the people. A farcical display of manipulation and arm-twisting within parliament resulted in a constitutional amendment that has dealt a severe blow to the judiciary. The apex court had settled the matter of appointment of the chief justice by recognising the principle of seniority; the senior-most judge after the chief justice was assured of his place at the pinnacle and there was no dispute.
The present ruling elite did not want the senior-most judge after the chief justice to take over the mantle and therefore, a constitutional amendment that can only be described as person-specific was rubber-stamped by parliament and that too without any debate or deliberation.
A parallel constitutional court has been established, with junior judges predominantly selected by the executive, to adjudicate and preside over highly sensitive issues of great public significance such as the trial of civilians in military courts and the review of the recent award of reserved minority seats to a political party by most Supreme Court judges. Unfortunately, the judiciary faces this predicament due to the strife within its own ranks.
The bureaucracy and police services have broken all previous records of becoming handy tools of a callous ruling elite. Some spineless seniors are dragging their junior officers into very awkward and embarrassing situations where human rights violations are endemic. Arguably, in no previous era, including periods of military rule, were such acts of persecution and indignity witnessed. Certain senior police officers are openly defying court orders. Political agitation and protests are handled through brutal tactics, which include late-night raids on the homes of political activists and office-bearers who are illegally detained and allegedly tortured. This kind of brutality reflects an autocratic mindset in the top echelons of the law-enforcement institutions.
There are extremely serious challenges on the internal security front. Balochistan is burning. The recent carnage in Kurram is a manifestation of the festering violence that has engulfed much of KP. The entire focus of our security establishment should be on dealing with these crises. The military and the intelligence agencies must ensure that the writ of the state is restored.
They are already engaged in kinetic operations against militant organisations in Balochistan. It has been announced recently that a full-fledged military operation is being launched to restore peace and order in the vast province. Since the last few years, the military has already been dealing with the insurgency. Staying away from an operation that entails gross human rights violations, the military must focus on winning the hearts and minds of the Baloch youth.
Finally, what has happened in Islamabad recently in a brutal crackdown on the participants of a political protest, should be cause for serious introspection by those who are calling the shots. History will judge them on how they dealt with a political crisis of this magnitude, which has been developing since the elections earlier this year. It is time to change course to fulfil the democratic aspirations of the people of Pakistan. The writer is a former inspector-general of police.
IN recent days, we saw economic and social life in almost all of Punjab and KP come to a standstill. The air quality in Punjab, the most populous and most urbanised province of the country and parts of KP endowed with pristine mountains has become a more serious climate crisis than the magnitude of the 2022 floods.
With almost 100 million people inhaling polluted air — 10 times more toxic than WHO standards — the scale of this crisis has become a health emergency. The rain will provide temporary respite as it will help improve visibility but not permanently bring pollution levels down to healthy standards.
The problem has not emerged suddenly, nor can it be resolved quickly. How can Pakistan reverse the rapidly deteriorating situation? We need to set realistic targets for 2047 to commemorate our first 100 years as a nation.
The brewing challenge was recognised in 2014, by a World Bank-compiled study Air Quality in Pakistan: A Review of the Evidence, revealing that Pakistan’s urban air pollution ranked among the worst globally, and significantly exceeded international limits.
The report showed that air pollution contributed to approximately 235,000 premature deaths and over 80,000 hospital admissions annually. The air quality reduced life expectancy by up to 2.7 years across Pakistan. It seems that the report in 2014 was predicting the newspaper headlines of November 2024.
The problem of pollution has not emerged suddenly, nor can it be resolved quickly.
The warnings were ignored by policymakers, even though the study also pointed out that air pollution was costing up to 6.5 per cent of GDP annually. Healthcare expenditures amount to $47.7 billion (about 5.8pc of GDP), while lost labour output reaches $6.6bn. The cost of environmental degradation at the time was estimated at Rs365bn annually.
Given the gravity of the challenge, the study set a target of 70pc reduction in air pollutants by 2030 and 81pc by 2040. These goals required coordinated interventions across transportation, industry, agriculture, and waste management sectors, supported by strengthened institutional capacity and regulatory frameworks.
The Lahore High Court’s Smog Commission (2017) and the Judicial Water & Environment Commission (2019), could not persuade the provincial government to bring the issue to the forefront.
Ironically, it was only in March last year that the National Clean Air Policy was approved. Within a month, it was followed by the Punjab’s Clean Air Plan. Both NCAP and PCAP have shifted the signposts: achieving a 38pc reduction in PM2.5 emissions by 2030, compared to baseline levels, and to 81pc by 2040. In reality, a credible scientific baseline still does not exist. The policies’ effectiveness is further compromised by limited air quality monitoring infrastructure. While Punjab has begun to install such infrastructure, Balochistan, KP, Sindh, and Gilgit-Baltistan lack monitoring networks entirely.
Several complex factors drive this crisis. Some developing countries have used the following five framework principles to orient their policy on clean air:
First: adaptation and mitigation are intrinsically linked. We need to bust the myth that as a developing country, emissions reduction or mitigation is not our priority, and only adaptation is. The present air pollution crisis is proof that it is perilous for Pakistan to ignore mitigation measures.
Second: policies are for implementation. Starting with the National Environment Policy (2005), a stack of policies have highlighted the need for ambient air quality. Despite several trillion rupees worth of PSDP, air quality hardly received any investments.
Further, the policies beg implementation, not a downward revision of targets. NCAP and PCAP have both relaxed air quality parameters that fall behind the WHO’s 2021 guidelines. No reasons are offered for lowering standards. By reverting to pre-2021 WHO interim targets, Pakistan has effectively loosened the existing National Environmental Quality Standards from 2013. Some experts believe that it will potentially raise PM2.5 levels by more than 50pc.
Regrettably, some functionaries are now also arguing for reducing the ambitions of Nationally Determined Contributions (2021). Instead of assessing the barriers for its slow implementation, an important thought leader has recently stated that NDC 2.0 has “unrealistically high ambition”. In reality, the NDCs still lack an implementation plan, costing, or a secretariat to monitor its progress. Far from scaling down its sovereign commitments, Pakistan needs to scale up climate action for a convincing narrative for greater access to climate finance.
Third: align with global trends. The present crisis provides Pakistan an opportunity to join the global drive for decarbonisation, now gaining new momentum after Donald Trump’s announcement of exiting the Paris Agreement. This is the right time for Pakistan to commit to net zero. At this time, about 75pc of states have set net-zero targets accounting for 98pc of global GDP and 88pc of greenhouse gas emissions. The list includes our neighbours Bangladesh, China, India and the Maldives. This decision can serve as a compass for the direction of our journey.
Fourth: decentralised clean air plans and engaging stakeholders. Technical capacities as well as willingness exists in academia, think tanks, start-ups, and the private sector to engage in data generation, map emissions hotspots, deliver research analytics and carry out advocacy campaigns. This is particularly important as the data generated by the government is expensive, delayed, and unusable. The Punjab government can give legitimacy to independent datasets and spearhead their environmental data generation.
Fifth: formally engage with the government of Indian Punjab. Air quality is a transboundary issue, even if crop-burning is a small contributory factor. A dialogue is needed for cleaner air on both sides of the border, and for early closure of two coal-fired power plants closer to the border: Guru Hargobind Thermal Plant and Guru Gobind Singh Super Thermal Power Plant. The agenda and purpose, however, has to be collaborative rather than accusatory.
Finally, the 18th Amendment has not clearly delineated all environmental issues. The provinces can agree with the federal government to firewall Rs1.28tr to be collected as petroleum levy for urban transportation, pre-agree on the quality of imported fuel and vehicles, agree on subsidies and incentives for energy transition for two and three-wheelers away from combustion engines, and fast-track the phasing out of rickshaws. Afterall, 2047 is only 23 years away. The writer is an Islamabad-based climate change and sustainable development expert.
Published in Dawn, November 21st, 2024
Friday, November 22, 2024
PAKISTAN
At war with itself
IT could not have been more bizarre: the government is taking its war against social media to a new level
After banning X, the government now seeks to restrict the use of VPN (Virtual Private Networks).
To do so, it has gone to the extent of obtaining a fatwa from the Council of Islamic Ideology, which initially termed the use of the network ‘un-Islamic’.
The statement by the head of the CII came the same day as the remarks made by the army chief at an Islamabad-based research institute that “Unrestricted freedom of speech is leading to the degradation of moral values in all societies”. The army chief also called for the enforcement of “comprehensive laws and regulations” to stop what has been referred to as “digital terrorism” by those who hold the reins of power.
Although it is not unusual for senior establishment figures in Pakistan to delve into policy matters, such comments on regulating freedom of speech give cause for concern, especially in a country that is already witnessing increasing curbs not only on social media platforms but also on mainstream media. The government’s move to downgrade internet services and restrict the use of VPNs seems to be a part of the effort to stifle freedom of expression and to prevent access to information.
What is most alarming is that all such restrictions are being enforced in the name of national security. It leaves us wondering how the country can be made a safer place by shutting down social media and curbing the freedom of expression. It may be true that social media is also being used for negative propaganda and to spread fake news. But how does that threaten our national security? If anything, it is restrictions on democratic and media freedoms that make the country more insecure.
There is no denying that social media campaigns against the security forces have heightened over the past few years. But our leadership has yet to understand that this is a reflection of the existing tensions caused by the narrowing of democratic space and greater involvement of non-political forces in political power games. Instead of addressing the public’s growing disenchantment with the existing system, the leadership has responded with more stringent measures to stifle dissent.
The move to control mainstream media was bound to give greater space to social media platforms. Notwithstanding its negative side, it’s a fact that people now trust social media more, with a large section of the mainstream media losing its credibility in the eyes of the public.
Installing firewalls and limiting digital services will not help resolve the crisis the state faces.
Stringent regulatory measures and attempts to further curtail freedom of expression will only push the public to rely more on social media to access information as well as voice their views. Given the massive advancement in information technology, it will be hard for the state to completely control this platform, despite attempts to install a firewall whose cost is estimated to be in billions of rupees. The only way to counter fake news and negative propaganda is to restore democratic rights and remove restrictions on freedom of expression.
It might be true that social media has become a major venue for anti-establishment views over the past few years. But to simply term them as ‘enemy-sponsored propaganda against the state’ is to overlook the increasing public concern over the involvement of non-political forces in civilian affairs.
More distressing is the growing public alienation in insurgency-infested areas, despite the large number of casualties suffered by the security forces. It is also a fact that social media has now become a venue for protest particularly among young people seeking to change the status quo. Any repressive measure is bound to widen their alienation. This is the lesson of history that our civil and military leadership have yet to learn.
It is not anyone’s job to judge society’s moral values or for those outside the civilian sphere to talk about regulating freedom of expression. Instead, those in the security sphere should focus more on the grave security challenges the country is facing, which is crucial to winning and maintaining the public’s trust.
Blaming social media for all evils is not going to help tackle what is clearly an existentialist threat. The situation is further compounded by the fact that KP and Balochistan, both strategically important provinces, are caught in the midst of insurgencies, which are by far the biggest threat to national security today.
There has been a marked upsurge in the number of terrorist attacks in recent months, with growing political instability in the country and the weakening of local administrations in the two provinces. Nothing could be worse for the leadership of a country in the throes of a conflict than to lose the trust of its own people. In this situation, it has become imperative for the civil and military leadership to restore political stability in the country. Setting up firewalls and restricting digital services will not help resolve the crisis that the state faces.
It is not just about the political aspects but also the economic costs of internet disruptions. The damage to the economy could be devastating. According to an IT firm, internet restrictions and the firewall could inflict “devastating financial losses estimated to reach $300 million, which can further increase exponentially”. Other restrictions on online services can exacerbate the crisis.
Access to X has been blocked since the time of the elections in February and more restrictions could come with the opposition PTI threatening to storm the capital to increase pressure on the coalition government.
The confrontation is likely to escalate, with no sign of any side relenting. More restrictions on freedom of expression and curbs on social media would only worsen the situation. The government’s actions are pushing the country into a war with itself. The writer is an author and journalist. zhussain100@yahoo.com X: @hidhussain
CONSIDERING that Balochistan has been experiencing a steady wave of terrorist violence over the past few months, particularly involving Baloch separatist groups, it is no surprise that the state has decided to use armed force to quell the insurgency.
Using the platform of the Apex Committee, the civil and military leadership said on Tuesday that an operation would be launched to counter terrorism and separatist violence in the province, while Nacta would be revitalised under the vision of Azm-i-Istehkam. The meeting also announced that a National and Provincial Intelligence Fusion and Threat Assessment Centre would be created and a “whole-of-system approach” adopted.
It is clear why the state has to take firm action to restore peace in Balochistan. In August, terrorists launched a coordinated series of attacks in different parts of the province; such incidents have been occurring since then with disturbing regularity. They include the massacre of miners in Dukki in October, as well as the bombings in Mastung and at the Quetta railway station earlier this month. In fact, the railway station atrocity, in which a large number of civilians were martyred along with security personnel, may have played a decisive role in the state’s decision to launch a military operation.
Apart from these incidents, there have been numerous grisly murders of non-Baloch workers, as well as the suicide bombing in October outside Karachi airport in which two Chinese nationals were killed. The latter incident threatened to imperil Pakistan’s relationship with Beijing. All these violent acts have been linked to Baloch separatists.
Yet it should be remembered that although Balochistan has witnessed numerous military operations over the decades, they have largely failed to bring long-lasting peace to the province. This time, with Nacta on board, things could be different. While the state goes after terrorists, innocent people should not be hauled away and there must be transparency regarding the operations. If relatives of the insurgents, especially women and children, are targeted in the name of tackling terrorism, it will be counterproductive and breed more disaffection.
As this paper has said before, while restoring peace is essential, addressing Balochistan’s socioeconomic deprivation is equally important as terrorists exploit poverty and underdevelopment in the resource-rich province to turn people against the state. Moreover, the state will need to keep channels open with the Afghan Taliban to ensure that Baloch insurgents are not able to find sanctuary in their country.
Better ties with Kabul can help thwart the malignant designs of the “hostile foreign powers” that the Apex Committee identified. Some regional states, such as India, are deepening relations with the Afghan Taliban. For peace in Balochistan and elsewhere in the country, Pakistan cannot afford to ignore these developments and must keep the lines open with Kabul.
Published in Dawn, November 21st, 2024
Saturday, November 16, 2024
PAKISTAN
Unrestricted freedom of speech contributing to degradation of moral values in societies: army chief
Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Asim Munir speaking in Islamabad on Nov 15, 2024. — @PTVNewsOfficial on X
Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Asim Munir on Friday addressed the impact of technology in spreading false information, reiterating that unrestricted freedom of speech was “contributing to the degradation of moral values in all societies.”
Gen Munir was speaking on the topic of “Pakistan’s role in peace and stability” at the Margalla Dialogue 2024 in Islamabad, organised by the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI).
According to a statement issued by state broadcaster PTV on X, the army chief said, “Unrestricted freedom of speech is leading to the degradation of moral values in all societies.”
He said that while technology had played an important role in the dissemination of information, “the spread of misleading and incorrect knowledge was a major challenge”.
“Without comprehensive laws and regulations, false and misleading information, and hate speech will continue to destabilise political and social structures,” he said.
Today’s statement was the latest in a long line of warnings from the army chief and the military about the dangers of misinformation, that particularly spreads through social media posts.
Over the past couple of years, social media campaigns against the army have escalated, reflecting broader tensions within the country’s political and social fabric. The government, often in tandem with the military, has responded with stringent measures aimed at controlling the narrative and stifling dissent.
These measures have led to numerous arrests and legal actions against journalists and social media users accused of spreading “negative propaganda” about the military and the state, resulting in restricted internet access and bans on platforms like X.
Previously, Gen Munir warned that social media was being exploited to spread anarchy and false information aimed at the armed forces, while the term ‘digital terrorism’ is now being used to describe the actions of online critics accused of spreading falsehoods.
In August, during an Independence Day speech, the army chief stressed the importance of investigating and verifying information so as not to cause consternation among the people.
He had said that while the Constitution allowed for freedom of speech, it also contained “clear limits to what constitutes free speech.”
“To the inimical forces, let it be clear; that regardless of the multilayered and multidimensional threats piled up against us we stand united and reassured. Traditional or non-traditional, dynamic or proactive, whatever form of warfare is applied against us, our retribution will be sharp and painful and we will certainly strike back,” he had said.
“For indeed, we know that freedom is not for free, it costs many great sons and daughters, and we are always ready for that. I have full faith and confidence that the people of Pakistan and its security forces will never relent and let anyone cast an evil eye on this great country.”
‘TTP home to all terrorist proxies worldwide’
During his speech, Gen Munir also talked about how violent non-state actors and state-sponsored terrorism had become major global challenges.
“Terrorism is a common challenge for all humanity globally, and Pakistan has an unwavering commitment to the fight against terrorism,” he said.
He also stated that a robust border management system had been implemented to secure Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan against Fitna al Khawarij, who he said was “home to all the terrorist organisations and proxies of the world”.
In July, the government, through an official notification, designated the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as Fitna al Khawarij, while mandating all institutions to use the term khariji (outcast) when referring to the perpetrators of terrorist attacks on Pakistan.
The country has lately witnessed a sharp uptick in the number of attacks targeting security forces, other law enforcement agencies, and security checkpoints, particularly in Balochistan and KP.
Attacks escalated after the TTP broke a fragile ceasefire agreement with the government in 2022 and vowed to target security forces.
Islamabad maintains that the TTP uses Afghan soil to launch attacks in Pakistan and has repeatedly asked Kabul to deny safe havens to the outlawed group and to hand over its leadership to Pakistan. Afghanistan has denied the allegations.
“Pakistan expects the Afghan Interim Government not to allow Afghan territory to be used for terrorism and to take strict measures in this regard,” Gen Munir reiterated today.
ISLAMABAD: Army Chief General Asim Munir on Friday observed that unrestricted freedom of speech was leading to the degradation of moral values in all societies.
In wide-ranging remarks at the Margalla Dialogue, hosted by the Islamabad Policy Research Institute, subjects such as India’s Hindutva ideology, occupied Kashmir, Pakistan’s role in peacekeeping missions, terrorism from Afghan soil, border management, freedom of speech, false information, etc all came up.
The army chief reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to remaining neutral in international conflicts and staying away from bloc politics while continuing its role in fostering global peace and stability.
Addressing the growing issue of fake news, he said, “While technology has played a pivotal role in the dissemination of information, the spread of misleading and incorrect information has become a significant challenge.”
Says country will stay away from bloc politics; speaks of TTP’s potential threat beyond Pakistan’s borders
“Without comprehensive laws and regulations, false and misleading information, along with hate speech, will continue to destabilise political and social structures,” Gen Munir stated, advocating for stricter regulation of social media and a reduction in online freedoms.
Interestingly, the session featuring Gen Munir’s remarks was held a day after the two-day conference officially concluded.
The audience comprised members of the diplomatic community, serving military officials, and representatives from Islamabad-based think tanks.
Non-alignment policy
The event served as a platform for the army chief to reiterate Pakistan’s long-standing policy of non-alignment, as he said, “We will not become part of any global conflict but will continue to play our role for peace and stability in the world.”
Pakistan’s policy of avoiding bloc politics has been a consistent part of its foreign policy. However, the timing of this renewed emphasis is significant, coinciding with Washington’s preparations for a transition following Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.
The escalating rivalry between the US and China remains the defining global competition of the current era, with profound implications for international alliances, economic systems, and strategic stability. This high-stakes contest is shaping the future of global governance and international order.
Gen Munir’s message was apparently addressed to both Washington and Beijing, emphasising Pakistan’s commitment to peace and neutrality.
However, notably absent from the publicly shared details of his speech was any mention of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
The army chief focused instead on Pakistan’s broader contributions to global peace and stability. He highlighted Pakistan’s significant role in the UN peacekeeping missions, noting that 235,000 Pakistanis have served in these missions, with 181 making the ultimate sacrifice.
In a pointed message to the West, particularly the United States, the army chief underscored that the extremist ideology espoused by India’s ruling junta is not only a threat to Pakistan but also poses risks to Indian-origin citizens in America, the UK, and Canada.
While speaking about India’s ongoing atrocities in occupied Jammu and Kashmir, Gen Munir described these actions as an extension of the Hindutva ideology.
“The resolution of the Kashmir dispute, in accordance with United Nations resolutions and the aspirations of the Kashmiri people, is inevitable,” he asserted.
Addressing the terrorism threat from Afghanistan, Gen Munir emphasised Pakistan’s expectation that the Taliban administration would prevent the use of Afghan territory for terrorist activities and take stringent measures to curb such threats.
“A comprehensive border management regime has been established to secure our western borders,” he stated, highlighting Pakistan’s efforts to prevent unauthorised cross-border movement.
He also warned about the potential for the banned TTP to evolve into a threat beyond Pakistan’s borders.
Referring to the proscribed group as Fitna al-Khawarij, he pointed out its connections to several international terrorist organisations and proxies.
Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2024
Mobile internet services suspended in certain areas of Balochistan to ‘ensure public safety’, says PTA
The Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) on Friday announced that mobile internet services in certain parts of Balochistan have been suspended to “ensure public safety”.
Pakistan, particularly the Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces, has witnessed a sharp uptick in terrorism-related incidents over the past year.
At least 26 people were killed and 62 injured after a suicide blast ripped through a Quetta Railway Station on November 9, local authorities and hospital officials said.
On September 26, at least two policemen were among a dozen people injured by a bomb attack, which targeted a police vehicle in Quetta.
Officials said that unidentified miscreants had parked an explosives-laden motorcycle in the Bhosa Mandi area of Eastern Bypass. When a police vehicle reached the spot, an explosion was triggered, ostensibly using a remote-controlled device.
“The general public is hereby informed that, under the directives of authorised departments, mobile internet services have been temporarily suspended in certain areas of Balochistan,” Friday’s statement said.
The statement added that the step was taken “to ensure public safety given the security situation in these areas”.
It, however, did not specify the areas where mobile internet services have been suspended or provide details on the duration of the suspension.
To ensure security within the province, the Balochistan government decided to develop a provincial action plan to significantly enhance governance and security across the province.
Balochistan Chief Secretary Shakeel Qadir Khan on Wednesday briefed a high-level meeting, presided over by Chief Minister Sarfraz Bugti, on the proposed plan.
The chief secretary said that a comprehensive strategy is being developed to effectively counter terrorism, crime, extortion and smuggling cases with a focus on enhancing enforcement measures.
THOSE who govern us may have expertise in multiple areas, but their ability and propensity to score own goals seem without parallel. None of us will have to look too hard to find examples. The latest of these are curbs on the internet.
Pakistan often competes with India because it sees its eastern neighbour as a fierce rival and often gives the impression it has the desire and the ability to match it in all spheres. But does any Pakistani who believes this ever reflect with honesty on whether it is true?
India is about four times bigger than Pakistan in terms of land mass and five to six times larger in population. Now, if we were competing like for like, we’d have been justifiably smug if, for example, our trade volume, foreign exchange reserves, GDP and other key development indicators reflected this proportion.
Who doesn’t know the history which tells us that while our eastern neighbour had political (leadership) continuity well past its first decade as an independent state (16 years to be precise), saw meaningful land reforms and investment in education, with at least five world class IITs (Indian Institutes of Technology) set up within the first 14 years of its existence. Not forgetting the passage of its first constitution in 1950.
Hugely power-hungry players and their petty agendas take precedence over what is vital for the collective good.
In our case, a similar period of our existence saw the father of the nation passing away within 13 months of independence, assassination of his political heir apparent a few years later, and then a devastating and debilitating game of thrones which witnessed politicians and civil-military bureaucrats passing through a revolving door in power grabs, sanctioned by a superior judiciary that sullied itself and set the theme for years to come.
While India stayed on the democratic course, Pakistan strayed and strayed and strayed from it, in a tradition that continues to this day. The one area where Pakistan appeared to be ahead was in economic growth and development, funded by throwing in its lot with the West (read: the US) during the Cold War years and beyond.
In different forms, this slight edge continued till the early 1990s, when Manmohan Singh became India’s finance minister and embarked on an unprecedented reform and deregulation plan, which was to transform India’s economy and fate within a few years. There has been no looking back for it since.
Of course, critics of any such analysis would ask if Indian society is any better than Pakistan’s as a result of this economic growth and development. They’d cite the rise of Hindutva ideology and list its negative impact on the country and its unity. That would be valid criticism, as that is true.
Any such analysis does not for a moment suggest that Quaid-i-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah was wrong in seeking and securing a separate homeland for the Muslims of the subcontinent. He was right. It was his tragic death soon after independence that pushed Pakistan off track and into the direction in which it finds itself today.
The religious intolerance and strife in society and the extra-constitutional role and transgressions of various power players in the country since Mr Jinnah’s passing would have enraged him no end, and, frankly, they would not have happened had he lived through the initial years of Pakistan. But he did not.
What we have as a result is an unmitigated mess where various hugely power-hungry and self-righteous players and their petty agendas take precedence over what is vital for the collective good of the country and its citizens.
While many executives of Indian origin are now at the helm of global technology giants (a tribute to the quality education imparted by the IITs, 23 of which exist today with an enrolment of nearly 100,000 students at any given time), we are still debating whether free access to the internet is highly desirable or anathema to our society.
I became aware through an anecdote of the quality of IIT education when, in the early 1990s, my nephew, then at MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), told me that he was quite surprised to see some Indian students transferring directly from IITs to MIT undergrad programmes.
The result of this education and Dr Singh’s reform was that the Indian tech sector grew exponentially, like the rest of the economy. India today is home to some of the world’s leading technology companies, and their software exports total more than $200 billion a year, and are likely to grow further. India’s exports are services-led. So should ours.
Pakistan’s software exports are around $3.2bn annually. By no means is this comparison meant to run down our companies and IT professionals but merely to demonstrate the growth potential. Our firms have performed so well even when unsupported by government policy — not just unsupported, but often restricted, as is happening with this new VPN allergy that the rulers have developed.
Whatever the rationale they have cited for restricting free access to the modern tools of communication and information technology, it will not stand the test of time nor sanity. Contentious political issues will not be resolved by turning off the IT tap.
In fact, it is tantamount to turning off the water, food supply (even oxygen) to an entire city’s population because hiding among them are some terrorists. Any law enforcement has to be targeted and pinpointed. This collective punishment is self-defeating.
Instead of scoring own goals, those running the country should reflect and ask themselves whether they wish to see Pakistan as a modern developing/ developed state with its abundant youth talent contributing to its development, earning it billions in badly needed foreign exchange, or a dysfunctional isolationist security state perpetually in need of bailouts with all their negative consequences.
THE deadly terrorist attack in Quetta has reignited debates surrounding the security situation in Balochistan. Predictably, hawkish voices have sought to discredit advocates for political reconciliation. This knee-jerk reaction merits a nuanced response.
There is no question that the escalation of violence by Baloch separatists has resulted in appalling attacks against innocent civilians, notably labourers, coal miners, truck drivers and others. These acts warrant unequivocal condemnation, and it is imperative that we stand united in denouncing violence against citizens merely seeking to work and live in peace.
Nonetheless, during such tragic situations, we must also guard against those who push their agenda for intensified repression of the Baloch people. Here’s why we should not adopt their hawkish narrative.
First, the Baloch insurgency is rooted in a deeply entrenched popular grievance stemming from decades of systemic political exclusion and socioeconomic marginalisation and exploitation. This grievance is pervasive, resonating across the spectrum of pro-state Baloch leaders, nationalists, and insurgents alike. Baloch grievances have historically been met with a combination of political engineering — co-optation and installation of pliant political voices — and coercion. This dual strategy may have produced an illusion of stability, but it has reinforced the underlying resentment and perception of disenfranchisement.
The reality is that insurgents have drawn strength from the very policies intended to curtail them.
The post-18th Amendment period presented a critical opportunity to foster political reconciliation and stability. Yet this opening was largely squandered. While the amendment was inadequate in its ability to address the underlying institutional drivers of Balochistan’s marginalised status, it still represented a major step towards federal harmony.
Through political and fiscal decentralisation, the amendment briefly pacified tensions, as Baloch nationalists largely engaged in the parliamentary process with renewed hope. However, this optimism was short-lived. The establishment’s de facto power at the provincial level not only endured but expanded.
Indeed, political developments since the 18th Amendment have only amplified grievances. Over the past decade, the province has seen a rapid turnover of six elected chief ministers (excluding caretaker leaders). At least two exited through the threat of no-confidence votes, allegedly backed by powerful elements in the establishment. The irony is that, despite the frequent reshuffling, the principal actors have remained nearly the same, though the political parties involved have changed because this cohort of ‘electables’ shifts political allegiances every five years at the behest of the state. This cycle of political musical chairs has left governance and public service delivery in a shambles, with little accountability.
Public procurement, jobs, and development funds have become prime conduits for rent-seeking and corruption. Street-smart politicians have adopted a simple formula for securing and retaining the chief minister’s post: the development budget is effectively parcelled out to MPAs, with the largest shares allocated to key ministers, heads of coalition partners, and non-elected ‘notables’. This approach has proven so effective that MPAs have often disregarded party lines to support the treasury benches, even when in opposition. Hence an elite class of ever-green politicians, along with their allies in the military and civil bureaucracy, have allegedly accumulated wealth and influence.
In the past, my critique of the corruption and misgovernance in Balochistan has been used by some to argue against the 18th Amendment and the seventh NFC Award. However, these issues are not a failure of decentralisation per se. Rather, the situation is an indictment of elite capture perpetuated primarily by state-sponsored political engineering.
The practice of political engineering has only intensified. The current provincial government, brought to power after the widely criticised elections of February 2024, arguably stands as one of the least legitimate coalitions in the last three decades. This persistent installation of pliant figures has eroded the legitimacy of parliamentary politics in the eyes of citizens. At the same time, state heavy-handedness has grown more pronounced: enforced disappearances of Baloch students and activists, mistreatment of peaceful protesters, and the recent strong-arming of BNP-M senators have fuelled distrust.
What state officials fail to realise is that such tactics serve only to bolster the Baloch insurgents’ narrative, who adeptly exploit these actions to portray the federal parliamentary system as ineffective and indifferent to Baloch grievances. Akhtar Mengal’s resignation from parliament stands as a striking illustration of this unfortunate reality.
In light of these realities, any strategy for peace that fails to address the foundational grievances underlying the insurgency is bound to fail.
Secondly, those advocating a more aggressive response appear to suffer from political amnesia. This hawkish stance has been the prevailing strategy for over two decades. The outcomes speak for themselves. The bitter reality is that insurgents have drawn strength from the very policies intended to curtail them.
Genuine political reconciliation, with few exceptions, has rarely been given a chance. One notable instance was the short-lived efforts of Dr Abdul Malik Baloch, whose tenure as chief minister saw an attempt at reconciliation undermined by the establishment, whose reliance on their Baloch protégés took precedence over fostering an authentic dialogue with Baloch nationalists.
The oversimplified question posed by hawks —‘how can one negotiate with those who don’t want to talk?’— obscures a more complex reality. In the climate of alienation, we may be approaching a point of no return. The situation has been compounded further by the changed character of the Baloch insurgency, where a younger, educated and more radical cadre calls the shots. The insurgency’s increasingly urban and decentralised nature renders traditional reconciliation efforts insufficient, even if all other factors were conducive.
Clearly, there are no simple solutions or quick fixes. However, confidence-building measures could help lay the groundwork for future political engagement. At a minimum, such CBMs should achieve these objectives: ensuring genuine political representation, ending enforced disappearances, and reducing the reliance on force. CBMs along these lines could open the door to a path of political reconciliation. Short of such CBMs, the future of Balochistan looks bleak.
BALOCHISTAN has again captured the spotlight, courtesy of Nawaz Sharif’s strategic foray into the province to court electables from BAP and other parties in a bid to solidify PML-N’s position ahead of the polls. The influx of over two dozen electables into PML-N begs a critical evaluation of Islamabad’s approach towards Balochistan. The national discourse has almost always attributed the plight of Balochistan to its own predatory and corrupt political elite, particularly the tribal sardars. While Balochistan’s people generally agree with this assessment, they stress a crucial exception: these predatory elites owe their sustenance primarily to the patronage emanating from Islamabad.
The genesis of the predatory political behaviour of traditional elites in Balochistan can be traced to the tribal governance system of the British. Popularly known as the ‘Sandeman system’, the colonial frontier governance model corrupted tribal social structures and fortified the position of tribal sardars by extending to them patronage in exchange for performing specific administrative functions. Tribal sardars thus became integral to a two-way patron-client relationship, acting as both clients of the colonial state and patrons of their tribal subjects.
The postcolonial state perpetuated this policy of ‘indirect rule’ through the tribal sardars. Although the introduction of representative democracy opened avenues for commoners to enter the political arena, the de facto power of the sardars endured, courtesy of the patronage received from Islamabad. The Islamabad-sardar alliance symbolises a marriage of convenience, with the state providing patronage in return for sardars’ countering assertive Baloch nationalists and downplaying thorny issues straining Baloch-Islamabad ties.
Since Balochistan’s establishment as a province in 1970, it has predominantly witnessed rule by Islamabad-backed tribal elites. In the period from 1970 to 2023, Balochistan experienced civilian rule for only 28 years, with countrywide parties governing for approximately 22 years (82 per cent), leaving ethno-regional parties with a mere six years (18pc). Countrywide parties like the PML-N, PPP, and PTI have remained primary conduits for the traditional sardars and newly emerging electables, generally hailing from the mercantile class. They have switched political allegiances frequently. Despite their penchant for political nomadism, these turncoats find ready acceptance in the very parties they had deserted previously.
Ruling through electables has hindered parties’ organic growth.
In the current scenario, the influx of electables into the PML-N raises eyebrows about the party’s strategy for the restive province. Given the proclivity, and proven track record, of these electables to change political loyalties opportunistically, the PML-N leadership should prioritise the medium- and long-term goal of cultivating a genuine support base among the masses. Of all the parties, the PML-N should know better that these electables are trustworthy neither in the short nor medium term.
It was only in 2018 that the PML-N chief minister in Balochistan, Nawab Sanaullah Zehri, was deserted by more than two-thirds of his own party members in support of a no-confidence motion filed by the opposition. Requiring a simple majority (33 votes) to continue as Leader of the House, the PML-N, with 21 members in the provincial assembly, should have comfortably thwarted the motion with the support of coalition partners whose combined strength was 25. However, it couldn’t retain the loyalty of even nine out of 21 members and collapsed like a house of cards. Despite this experience, the PML-N leadership appears reluctant to learn from the past. The opportunistic and inconsistent behaviour of countrywide parties towards political turncoats renders them susceptible to external manipulation when political fortunes reverse.
This policy of ruling the province through electables has hindered the organic growth of political parties and fostered the growth of non-partisan, predatory political behaviour in the province.
Further, it has fostered and cemented patronage-based provision of public goods and services at the expense of systemic reforms and service delivery. Lastly, it has weakened the public accountability of elected representatives, who increasingly rely on state patronage rather than popular support to enhance their chances of re-election.
In conclusion, the embrace of proven turncoats carries damaging implications for both political culture and public service delivery. Moving forward, the countrywide parties and the ruling elite in Islamabad, at the minimum, must acknowledge their complicity in Balochistan’s crisis of political leadership rather than shifting the blame onto the province’s citizens.
The writer is a public policy and development specialist from Balochistan. X: @rafiullahkakar
IF health is a human right, then the inability to pay for essential healthcare should not be a barrier. This is why financial protection for healthcare is an integral component of universal health coverage (UHC).
In poor countries with weak economies, inadequate healthcare systems, and lack of fiscal prioritisation of healthcare, the vast majority of people are not covered in terms of healthcare service coverage and financial protection. How, then, do people access healthcare? They spend out of their incomes, savings and loans; hence the term, ‘out-of-pocket health expenditures’ (OOPHE).
When already poor or almost poor people have to resort to OOPHE, it badly affects their household incomes and they have to make tough choices between other essentials — maybe food or children’s education.
When a household ends up spending more than 10 per cent and 25pc (both thresholds are used) of its total consumption or income, the World Health Organisation (WHO) defines it as ‘catastrophic OOPHE’, which hurts the poor most, especially the women, children and elderly among them. Catastrophic health expenditures push people into poverty and deepen the poverty of the already poor.
In March 2024, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics published the National Health Accounts 2021-22. The report presents the findings of the ninth round of National Health Accounts in Pakistan. NHA was initiated in Pakistan with the support of the WHO in 2005-06 and before the recent report, eight rounds had been completed for eight fiscal years.
NHA is a standard methodology for tracking national health expenditures, their sources and the way they are used, in order to develop policies to enhance the performance of national health systems. The standard methodology was jointly developed by WHO and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Together, they published A System of Health Accounts in 2011 and they maintain a database of global health expenditures and continue to produce global reports and provide trainings to their national counterparts to undertake NHAs.
Financial protection is an integral component of universal health coverage.
As part of the latest Pakistan NHA report for 2021-22, a special OOPHE survey was also undertaken. The survey covered 24,809 households spread over almost the whole of urban and rural Pakistan.
According to the survey, per capita annual OOP health expenditure in FY2021-22 was Rs4,334. People spent a total of over Rs983 billion out of their pocket on healthcare. The provincial breakdown shows that out of the total OOPHE, Punjab’s share was the highest (53pc), followed by Sindh (23pc), KP (17pc) and Balochistan (6pc).
A closer look at OOPHE survey data reveals that in Pakistan, around 73pc of the total OOP health expenditures are incurred on outpatient services (primary healthcare), while only around 20pc of total OOP spending is incurred on inpatient care. The percentage share of outpatients is highest in Punjab (77.46pc) followed by KP (72.01pc), and Balochistan (69.06pc), while the lowest share is that of Sindh (60.01pc). Also, 58.89pc of OOPHE takes place in urban centres and the rest in rural areas, which basically means that a sizeable proportion of people from the rural areas also travel to the urban areas and spend money to buy healthcare.
The people of Pakistan spend 82.79pc of OOPHE on buying healthcare from the private health sector, and the rest, 17.21pc, is spent in the public sector.
The breakdown of these expenditures shows that at the national level, more than half of OOP, that is, 50.63pc, is spent on buying medicines, followed by doctors’ fee (12.93pc), and lab tests (8.22pc), while 7.7pc of it is incurred on transportation costs.
The top diseases to which OOPHE caters include heart disease (9.73pc), flu/fever (9.55pc), muscular pain — knee, backbone, etc — (7.21pc), and diabetes (7.09pc).
What does all this data on OOPHE tell us and how should it feed into future health polices?
Three major points can be discerned. One, OOPHE is quite high in Pakistan and this is especially concerning with reference to the poor population, which numbers more than 110 million. This segment of the population needs financial protection for healthcare.
Second, since 73pc of OOPHE is being incurred by ambulatory patients seeking primary healthcare, it is critical that the poor segment of the population is provided financial protection for primary healthcare. Though financial protection is available for hospitalisation through the Sehat Sahulat Programme, there is a major need for financial protection at the PHC level.
Third, more than 80pc of OOPHE is made in the private sector. Combining it with the above two facts, it is clear that the people’s maximum out-of-pocket expenditures on health and their need for protection from financial hardship, especially for the poor and most vulnerable, is on PHC and in the private sector.
Currently, PHC in the private sector is the most uncovered area in terms of financial protection and hence there is slow advancement of UHC.
It is also the least regulated area in terms of quality of care and cost of care. Medicines, doctors’ fee and diagnostics are the main areas where people are spending money out of their pocket when they seek healthcare. For the poor, these items are unaffordable.
Who provides PHC in the private health sector: individual clinics of general practitioners or family physicians and outpatient departments of a variety of private sector hospitals.
If financial protection is not extended by expanding the Sehat Sahulat programme in these areas, then a vast majority of the poor and almost poor population will remain vulnerable to catastrophic and impoverishing OOPHE.
Policymakers also have to consider that the burden of disease in Pakistan has shifted to non-communicable diseases, which are chronic in nature and hence require lifelong healthcare. As this survey also shows, the top categories of diseases and conditions where OOPHEs are being incurred are non-communicable, and these are ongoing expenditures. This further necessitates financial protection.
The writer is a former health minister and currently a professor of health systems & population health at Shifa Tameer-i-Millat University.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told COP29 that 'We must protect nature, with men at its core'
- Copyright AFP Alexander NEMENOV
Laurent THOMET
Global leaders offered competing views on how to tackle climate change at UN-led talks Wednesday as a new report warned the world must reach carbon neutrality much sooner than planned.
Planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions from oil, gas and coal rose to a new record high this year, according to preliminary research from an international network of scientists at the Global Carbon Project.
The report came as leaders gathered in Azerbaijan for COP29 climate talks aimed at reaching a deal on boosting funding to help poorer nations adapt to climate shocks and transition to cleaner energy.
The research found that to keep the Paris agreement’s ambitious goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius in sight, the world would now need to reach net-zero CO2 emissions by the late 2030s — instead of 2050.
The warning also follows concerns about the future of the fight against climate change following the election of Donald Trump.
Trump, who has vowed to again pull the United States out of the Paris agreement, named his head of the Environmental Protection Agency Tuesday with a mandate to slash pollution regulations.
Some leaders in Baku defended fossil fuels during two days of speeches while others from countries plagued by climate disasters warned that they were running out of time.
– ‘Slower’ path –
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni called for a “realistic global outlook” on Wednesday, saying that world population growth will boost energy consumption demand.
“It is equally a priority that decarbonisation takes into consideration our production and social system’s sustainability,” she said.
“We must protect nature, with man at its core. An approach that is too ideological and not pragmatic on this matter risks taking us off the road to success,” the far-right leader said.
“Currently there is no single alternative to fossil fuel supply.”
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis called for a “smart” Green Deal, the European Union’s ambitious climate plan which aims to make the bloc carbon-neutral by 2050.
“We cannot drive ourselves into industrial oblivion,” the conservative leader said.
“We need to ask hard questions about a path that goes very fast, at the expense of our competitiveness, and a path that goes somewhat slower, but allows our industry to adapt and to thrive,” he said.
Their views contrasted with leaders from countries beset by climate catastrophes and rising sea levels.
“Tuvalu sincerely hopes that this COP’s concluding decisions will deliver a clear signal that the world is promptly phasing out fossil fuel,” said the Pacific island’s Prime Minister Feleti Penitala Teo.
“For Tuvalu and similarly placed countries, there is simply no time to waste,” he said.
– Money fight –
As leaders spoke, negotiators released a fresh draft of a deal with a raft of options to raise funding for poorer countries, while leaving unresolved sticking points that have long delayed an agreement.
Most developing countries favour an annual commitment from wealthy countries of at least $1.3 trillion, according to the latest draft of the long-sought climate finance pact.
This figure is more than 10 times the $100 billion annually that a small pool of developed countries — among them the US, the EU and Japan — currently pay.
Some donors are reluctant to promise large new amounts of public money from their budgets at a time when they face economic and political pressure at home.
The prime minister of the hurricane-vulnerable Bahamas, Philip Davis, said small island nations have spent 18 times more on debt repayment than they have received in climate finance.
“The world has found the ability to finance wars, the ability to mobilise against pandemics,” Davis said.
“Yet when it comes to addressing the most profound crisis of our time, the very survival of nations, where is that same ability?”
Nations approve new UN rules on carbon markets at COP29
By AFP November 11, 2024 Carbon credits are generated by activities that reduce or avoid planet-heating greenhouse gas emissions, like planting trees or replacing polluting coal with clean-energy alternatives - Copyright AFP Tony KARUMBA
Governments at the COP29 talks approved Monday new UN standards for international carbon markets in a key step toward allowing countries to trade credits to meet their climate targets.
On the opening day of the UN climate talks in Azerbaijan, nearly 200 nations agreed a number of crucial ground rules for setting a market in motion after nearly a decade of complex discussions.
Other key aspects of the overall framework still need to be negotiated, experts said, but the decision brings closer a long-sought UN-backed market trading in high-quality credits.
“It’s hugely significant,” Erika Lennon, from the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL), told AFP in Baku, saying it would “open the door” for a fully-fledged market.
Carbon credits are generated by activities that reduce or avoid planet-heating greenhouse gas emissions, like planting trees, protecting carbon sinks or replacing polluting coal with clean-energy alternatives.
One credit equals a tonne of prevented or removed heat-trapping carbon dioxide.
Since the Paris climate agreement in 2015, the UN has been crafting rules to allow countries and businesses to exchange credits in a transparent and credible market.
The benchmarks adopted in Baku will allow for the development of rules including calculating how many credits a given project can receive.
Once up and running, a carbon market would allow countries — mainly wealthy polluters — to offset emissions by purchasing credits from nations that have cut greenhouse gases above what they promised.
Purchasing countries could then put carbon credits toward achieving the climate goals promised in their national plans. – ‘Big step closer’ –
“It gets the system a big step closer to actually existing in the real world,” said Gilles Dufrasne from Carbon Market Watch, a think tank.
“But even with this, it doesn’t mean the market actually exists,” he added, saying further safeguards and questions around governance still remain unanswered.
An earlier UN attempt to regulate carbon markets under the Paris accord were rejected in Dubai in 2023 by the European Union and developing nations for being too lax.
Some observers were unhappy that the decision in Baku left unresolved other long-standing and crucial aspects of the broader crediting mechanism, known in UN terms as Article 6.
“It’s not possible to declare victory,” said a European diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.
There are hopes that a robust and credible UN carbon market could eventually indirectly raise the standards of the scandal-hit voluntary trade in credits.
Corporations wanting to offset their emissions and make claims of carbon neutrality have been major buyers of these credits, which are bought and exchanged but lack common standards.
But the voluntary market has been rocked by scandals in recent years amid accusations that some credits sold did not reduce emissions as promised, or that projects exploited local communities.
And the idea of offsetting as a whole faces deep scepticism from many.
“No matter how much integrity there is in the sort of the carbon markets, if what you are doing is offsetting ongoing fossil fuels with some sort of credit, you’re not actually reducing anything,” said Lennon.
Lame-duck US climate team vows to be ‘effective’ at COP29
By AFP November 12, 2024 US officials vow to be 'effective' participants at COP29 despite the election climate-sceptic Donald Trump - Copyright AFP Alexander NEMENOV
Laurent THOMET
They may be out of a job when Donald Trump takes office in two months, but US officials kept a busy schedule at UN climate talks, reminding jittery countries that global action had survived his first term.
President Joe Biden’s lame-duck climate envoy, John Podesta, scurried back and forth to meetings and events across the cavernous halls of the COP29 conference in Baku.
Among the slew of pavilions put up by countries to host panel discussions, it was business as usual at the US site, where it is hosting chats throughout the two-week gathering.
The United States is also in the thick of complex negotiations to reach a deal on dramatically increasing financing to help poorer countries adapt to climate change and transition to cleaner energy.
But the return of climate-sceptic Trump, who has vowed to pull the US out of the Paris agreement again, remained a hot topic of conversation.
“There’s no doubt that the lack of federal action on climate change is a big problem, and it’s going to hobble US climate action,” said Rachel Cleetus, a policy director at the Union of Concerned Scientists.
“But here at COP29 the Biden administration is still a government, and we expect them here to show leadership, take responsibility and push for ambitious outcomes at this COP in the negotiations in the next two weeks,” she said.
– ‘Effective participant’ –
Podesta, who only took the job earlier this year, kicked off his visit Monday by seeking to reassure countries that work to contain climate change would continue in the US, even if Trump puts the issue on the “back burner”.
On Tuesday, he co-headlined a summit on methane alongside his Chinese counterpart and the COP29 president during which he announced that oil and gas companies would be charged a fee for methane emissions in the US.
For his part, Ali Zaidi, Biden’s climate adviser, said Tuesday that he has been pointing out “what we witnessed between 2017 and 2021” — Trump’s first term.
Trump was unable to roll back former president Barack Obama’s solar and wind tax credits, while multilateral development banks continued to ramp up their capacity on climate finance, he said.
He added that developed countries were still able to meet a target of providing $100 billion in annual climate aid to poorer countries in 2022, a year after Trump left office. (That was two years later than promised, however).
“My big picture view on climate finance is (that) we’ve seen not just the US, but other countries zig and zag over the course of… COPS,” Zaidi said.
“There’s been a benefit in setting ambitious targets far out.”
Ramping up climate finance is at the heart of the negotiations in Baku, with some nations pushing for the aid to be increased tenfold to $1 trillion per year.
“I think we will be an effective participant in a conversation that should conclude successfully over the course of the next two weeks,” Zaidi said.
– ‘Don’t hide behind US election’ –
A veteran negotiator from an African country told AFP that it appears that US negotiators might be making modest demands in the hope that the next administration would not object to the outcome of COP29.
Cleetus said other countries should put pressure on the US during the talks.
“Countries should not hide behind the US election outcome not to do the right thing, because everybody knows what’s needed right now to secure our climate goals,” she said.
Germany’s climate negotiator, Jennifer Morgan, said she saw “strong determination” from countries to work together despite the US election’s outcome.
“The mood here is a very determined mood to move forward in implementing and accelerating the energy transformation that we decided last year (at COP28 in Dubai) and in getting an ambitious and fair climate finance outcome,” she told AFP.
COP29: Is addressing debt the way to achieve climate targets?
DIGITAL JOURNAL COP29 will focus on climate finance for developing countries -
Copyright AFP Alexander NEMENOV
The major climate change conference, taking place in Azerbaijan’s capital Baku, has begun – COP29 (29th meeting of the Conference of the Parties). World leaders from around 200 nations are attending this year’s summit to discuss climate change and how to fight it. At the same time, the World Meteorological Organisation has declared 2024 to be the hottest on record.
Many scientists are seeking to persuade the governments of high income countries to raise over a trillion dollars in finance for the developing world to prepare and mitigate climate crisis.
Azerbaijan is a controversial choice for the 29th United Nations event, due to the country being heavily reliant on oil.
“We mustn’t let 1.5 slip out of reach. Even as temperatures rise, the implementation of our agreements must claw them back. Clean energy and infrastructure investment will reach two trillion dollars in 2024. Almost twice that of fossil fuels. The shift to clean-energy and climate-resilience will not be stopped. Our job is to accelerate this and make sure its huge benefits are shared by all countries and all people.”
How successful will COP29 be? For many it is simply a bridging conference until COP30, when greater action against climate change is expected.
As COP29 kicks off, Digital Journal has heard from environmental and economic experts from the University of Oxford.
Sam Fankhauser, Professor of Climate Economics, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment explains that while COP29 is a smaller event that some previous climate conferences it remains essential that advancements are made: “It is important that we make progress on issues such as a new climate finance goal, the rules on global carbon trading and the next round of national commitments to keep global warming well below 2oC. I hope our research can give parties the confidence to sign up to meaningful new commitments and maintain the integrity of the Paris process.”
As to what these actions could be, Injy Johnstone, Research Associate in Net Zero Aligned Offsetting, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, outlines areas that need to be addressed: “During COP29, my focus will be on improving the net zero alignment of carbon markets. This includes active engagement in the Article 6 negotiations, major elements of which are set to be finalised this COP29, as well as mapping gaps and opportunities to scale durable carbon removal to address the growing ‘CDR gap’, including by implementing the Oxford Offsetting Principles.”
As to what could be delivered, Johnstone states: ” My hope at COP29 is that negotiators will see environmental integrity as central to rather than a barrier to establishing the international carbon market under Article 6 and that, ultimately, it sets a new global baseline from which we can go further and faster on climate mitigation.”
Professor Thomas Hale, Professor of Global Public Policy, Blavatnik School of Government expresses the view that improved political commitment and governmental action is needed: “I hope COP29 will send countries a clear signal that they need to upgrade their pledges under the Paris Agreement, due next year, and match top-level targets with concrete rules and regulations that drive implementation. A trust-building deal on the new finance goal can give countries confidence to reach their maximum ambition.”
Addressing issues with economics, including climate funding remains important. Here, Dr Brian O’Callaghan, Lead Researcher, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment says: “I’m advocating for a climate finance solution that makes economic sense—one that accounts for needs as well as technical factors like financial discounting.”
In particular, O’Callaghan urges: “Developing countries need a fighting chance to tackle climate change alongside development; their success is the world’s success. In most cases, this requires a target well over $1 trillion per year, clawback mechanisms for missed payments, and a public finance backstop on private finance commitments.”
Further with the economic aspects, Dr Nicola Ranger, Director, Global Finance and Economy Group & Resilient Planet Finance Lab, indicates: “COP29 has been billed as the finance COP. We need to see agreement on a new, ambitious climate finance goal for developing economies to support them to build resilience to climate change and transition toward low-carbon and nature-positive growth paths. The world cannot achieve its climate goals if we do not bring all countries with us.”
Debt remains an obstacle to joined-up economic planning. Ranger hopes: “As part of this, we need to see meaningful steps toward addressing the debt challenge – developing countries face a triple whammy of rising climate impacts, debt, and transition risks which amplify and reinforce each other. If we don’t address this directly and support countries to build both fiscal and climate resilience, the spiralling debt and setbacks to development in the poorest countries will have massive implications for all.”
Previous financial pledges on climate change yet to materialise, PM Shehbaz tells COP29 summit
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif gives a speech during the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku on Nov 13, 2024. — Reuters
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif highlighted on Wednesday that financial pledges made at the previous two United Nations’ annual climate summits — COP27 and COP28 — were yet to materialise.
He made the remarks during the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP29, that is being held in Azerbaijan’s capital of Baku. The premier presented Pakistan’s case on the second and final day of the World Leaders Climate Action Summit.
Pakistan is ranked among the top 10 most climate-vulnerable countries, according to the Global Climate Risk Index. It has faced increasingly frequent and severe weather events, such as unprecedented floods, intense monsoon rains, devastating heat waves, rapid glacial melting and glacial lake outburst floods.
Addressing the summit, PM Shehbaz asserted that COP29 should “make this understanding loud and clear that we will have to fulfil those financial pledges” committed at COP27 and COP28.
“And yet, I think, those huge financial commitments have to be materialised.”
The prime minister said the event was aimed at understanding the “calamities which, unfortunately, some of the countries have already faced and some will if we do not act”.
At COP27 in 2022, which was also attended by PM Shehbaz, countries had adopted a hard-fought final agreement to set up a “loss and damage fund” to help poor countries battered by climate disasters.
At COP28 last year, then-caretaker premier Anwaarul Haq Kakar had called for immediately executing the $100 billion in commitments for climate finance.
According to the UN, around $700 million have been pledged so far for the loss and damage fund, with France, Italy, Germany and the UAE being the biggest contributors.
At COP29 today, PM Shehbaz also spoke about the devastating monsoon floods of 2022, highlighting they had resulted in 1,700 deaths, massive displacement, destruction of houses and crops, and $30m loss to the country’s economy.
He called on the international community “to take measures which are so important at this point in time to have a conducive environment” to combat climate change.
The prime minister stressed that Pakistan was one of the countries that “hardly contribute” to global emissions, yet it was vulnerable to climate change and listed as one of the “10 countries which can, God forbid, face this kind of devastation again”.
“My memories are still fresh,” he said, recalling a meeting with flood affectees in Balochistan, including a boy named Ikramullah who had “lost everything”.
“His entire village was erased from the face of the earth, his home was completely demolished, and his school was also submerged. And we had arranged his education [in] another part of Pakistan,” he said.
PM Shehbaz stated he would not want “other countries to face the plight Pakistan faced back in 2022”.
Describing Pakistan as a “resilient, hard-working and responsible nation”, the premier affirmed his country was “fully committed to being part of the global climate solutions”.
Concluding his speech, the prime minister expressed the hope that under Azerbaijan’s leadership, COP29 can transform into a “finance COP by restoring confidence in the pledging process and scaling up climate finance”.
“I strongly feel that climate finance must be grant-based and not add to the debt burden of vulnerable developing countries,” he said, reiterating his remarks from yesterday on the sidelines of the summit.
“Two years ago, I warned, and I warned at the top of my voice, that the future would never forgive our inaction. Today, I echo the same,” PM Shehbaz asserted. ‘We shouldn’t brave impact of emissions by others’
Referring to the 2015 Paris Agreement, PM Shehbaz said: “Ten years ago in Paris, we had failed to stop the rise in emissions and catastrophic global warming, and those pledges in Paris 10 years ago, which were made have yet to see the light of the day.”
“As the minus-one emitters, we should not brave the impact of emissions realised by others without even the tools to finance resilience,” he emphasised.
“Without climate justice, there can be no real resilience,” the prime minister asserted.
The premier further said Pakistan would “go through a renewable energy revolution”, noting that the country last year presented a “comprehensive National Adaptation Plan”.
He continued: “This year, we have developed our National Carbon Market Framework. But we cannot do it alone. Pakistan needs international support to deliver on its climate ambitions.”
“My government has taken concrete actions to deliver on its commitment of producing 60 per cent of all energy from green sources and shifting 30pc of our vehicles to EVs (electric vehicles) by the end of this decade,” he told the summit.
PM Shehbaz stated that developing countries would need an estimated $6.2 trillion by 2030 to implement less than half of their current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
“The same goes for adaption and loss and damage,” he added, recalling the efforts at COP27 led by then-climate change minister Sherry Rehman. ‘Debt cannot be new normal’
Speaking at a Pakistan-organised conference at COP29 yesterday, PM Shehbaz had said debt cannot become the “acceptable new normal” in climate financing.
He had explained that financing in the form of loans pushes developing nations towards “mounting debt traps”, which he referred to as “death traps”.
Speaking at Glaciers 2025: Actions for Glaciers, the prime minister had also linked humanity’s survival with the health of glaciers, saying Pakistan was ready to work with the world on the matter.
Participating world leaders and delegates pose for a group photo during the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku on Nov 12, 2024. — AFP
PM Shehbaz also met with various world leaders on the sidelines of the summit, including UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, UK PM Sir Keir Starmer and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as well as those from South and Central Asia.
Dozens of world leaders convened in Azerbaijan for COP29 but many big names skipped the UN climate talks where the impact of Donald Trump’s election victory was keenly felt.
US President Joe Biden, China’s President Xi Jinping, India’s PM Narendra Modi and France’s President Emmanuel Macron were among the G20 leaders missing the event.
Pakistan witnessed devastating floods during the 2022 monsoon season, induced by climate change, resulting in the loss of at least 1,700 lives.
With 33 million people affected and swathes of agricultural land washed away, the damage incurred losses worth $30 billion, according to government estimates.
In June 2024, a heat wave brought record-high temperatures, severely impacting public health and agriculture.
More to follow
China plays key role in global climate action
By Li Wei and Yao Yuxin | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2024-11-11
The 29th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) is scheduled to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from Nov 11 to 22.
During a recent interview with China Daily, Michael Toman, a senior fellow at Resources for the Future and former lead economist on climate change at the World Bank, highlighted that China plays a key role in global climate action.
Toman emphasized that China's emission reduction policies are robust, well-crafted, and are geared towards achieving carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. These actions not only provide critical guidance for global climate efforts but also set a strong example for other countries to follow.
OVER 140,000 people displaced by flooding in Sindh this August are living in unbearable conditions. They sleep in tents, scrape by on one meal a day, and die from waterborne diseases. They fear more hunger as, according to Amnesty International, 500,000 acres of the province’s farmland lies flooded. Most are steeped in crushing debt, having taken fertiliser on credit to sow fields that remain waterlogged. This is the long tail of climate catastrophe.
The fate of our climate-affected compatriots lies in the hands of world leaders gathering today in Baku for COP29, the UN climate change conference. Unfortunately, the mood is despondent. Donald Trump’s re-election as US president has given this COP the air of a non-starter. Trump’s climate denial threatens to rationalise inaction by countless others.
The host’s priorities also raise questions about the sincerity of the COP process. Azerbaijan is hooked on fossil fuels, with oil comprising 90 per cent of its exports. Videos leaked this week show the chief executive of the country’s COP29 team seeking to strike more fossil fuel deals on the summit’s sidelines.
This poor momentum will be further derailed by low turnout by key stakeholders. Leaders from France, Germany, the US, China, India and Brazil aren’t bothering to show up, nor is the prime minister of Papua New Guinea, one of the most climate-vulnerable island nations, describing the summit as a “waste of time”.
What we’ll get in Baku is a reality check.
Thankfully, Pakistan is attending. What we’ll get in Baku is a reality check.
Pakistan last year launched an ambitious National Adaptation Plan but its main climate plan still takes the form of a demand for climate finance. This is not an irrational position given that by World Bank estimates we need investments totalling $348 billion over the next seven years to tackle climate change. COP29 will clarify that we need more than a begging bowl to address this need.
Baku is being termed the ‘Finance COP’ because the key agenda item is determining a ‘new collective quantified goal’ — a new global funding plan for climate action. The ask is material — the UN Standing Committee on Finance estimates $9 trillion are needed for mitigation and adaptation over the next five years.
Agreeing on a climate finance target is one challenge. Then the world must jointly decide who pays, when, how much, and how. Negotiations will be fraught and possibly unproductive, but there are some certainties that Pakistan should plan for. The era of handouts is over. Developed countries will not hand over climate finance without a fight, especially not since over 40pc of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been produced in the past 30 years, and two-thirds of these by developing countries. Developed economies will not contribute more unless developing yet high-emitting countries such as China, Russia, Brazil and India chip in too.
Consequently, climate finance may appear in various guises. It’s no longer just about loss and damage grants or multilateral development bank projects. China, for example, resists official climate commitments under COP agreements, but going by a Centre for Global Development (CGD) analysis, is already a net provider of climate support totalling $34bn between 2013 and 2021, primarily through lending by its state banks.
Diversified climate financing will require recipient countries to beware of climate debt. Most funding will take the form of ‘global investment flows for climate action’ rather than dole-outs. Expect more private sector involvement (in the form of loans), mobilisation promises, and diversions of existing development finance and aid. Learning lessons from CPEC, Pakistan should avoid climate packages that increase the debt burden.
The direction of travel is towards self-sufficiency.
Countries need to revamp their Nationally Determined Contributions (proposing GHG cuts and adaption plans) by February ahead of COP30 in Brazil. Agreements at Baku will also increasingly take the form of co-financing, for example, the ‘buy one get one free’ model proposed by Jonathan Beynon for the CGD which envisages developed countries matching every dollar committed to climate mitigation or adaptation by developing countries.
One thing is certain, the climate finance agreed in Baku this week will go to countries that will put it to good use. So far, that’s not us. As a recent Institute of Strategic Studies brief points out, our political instability, weak governance, lack of bankable projects, and paucity of data to evidence climate needs are all deterrents to climate funding. So are sociopolitical dynamics such as the disinterest in community engagement and tendency to suppress grassroots initiatives, which are seen as the bedrock of climate action. It’ll take more than asking to address our climate challenge.
The writer is a political and integrity risk analyst.
As the world melts around them, climate refugees in Hunza pin hopes on COP29
As world leaders gather for COP29, the Ismail family is among the millions whose plight serves as a stark reminder of the human cost of climate change.
In the remote highlands of northern Pakistan, the Ismail family once lived in harmony with the towering glaciers that crowned their village. They had deep ties to the land —an enduring connection forged through generations of farming, herding, and living in the shadows of the majestic mountains.
In 2022, however, a catastrophic glacier outburst flood (GLOF) ravaged their home, and with it, their way of life. The flood swept through their village, leaving them with nothing but the painful memories of a once-thriving existence.
Ismail, the sole breadwinner of the family, recalls the fateful day as if it were yesterday. “I was in the fields when the earth began to shake. By the time I got back to the house, the water was already at our doorstep. My wife and children were trapped inside. I had no choice but to grab them and run,” he said, his voice breaking with the weight of the loss. The family barely escaped with their lives, but their home, along with their crops, livestock, and belongings, were swept away by the torrent of water and debris.
Ismail’s family consists of seven members: himself, his wife Zahra, their three children — Sana, Bilal, and Rashid — and his elderly parents, Zulfiqar and Shahida. Before the flood, their lives revolved around farming and raising livestock.
“We lost more than just our home; we lost a part of ourselves,” said Zahra, looking out across the barren landscape where their once-flourishing farm stood. “My children don’t play the way they used to. They look at the mountains with fear now, not with wonder.”
Ismail’s elderly parents, Zulfiqar and Shahida, are still in shock. “We never thought something like this could happen to us,” Zulfiqar says, his frail voice trembling. “We’ve lived here all our lives. These glaciers were our protection, our lifeblood. Now, they have turned against us.” Climate refugees
The May 2022 flood displaced over 1,000 families across Hunza and Nagar districts in Gilgit-Baltistan. In Hunza alone, around 500 families were forced to leave their homes, particularly in Hassanabad and nearby villages, as floodwaters swept away homes, infrastructure, and agricultural land, leaving hundreds stranded and in urgent need of assistance.
In Hassanabad, the idea of leaving their ancestral land fills many residents with disbelief. These families have lived on the lush orchard fields, nestled among towering mountains, for over 400 years, cultivating crops and grazing livestock in the high plains. For many, the village is not just home — it’s where their ancestors are buried, and the thought of relocating feels unimaginable. With limited resources and deep emotional ties to the land, most say they simply cannot afford to leave the place that has been their life for generations.
The Ismail family, like many others in the region, has become climate refugees — forced to flee their ancestral land as rising temperatures and melting glaciers increasingly threaten their way of life. With no permanent shelter, they have sought refuge in nearby towns and villages, living in temporary shelters and struggling to find work and rebuild their shattered lives. But even in displacement, they face the ongoing fear of future climate events, as the threat of floods, landslides, and extreme weather events continues to loom large. Hope melting fast
Pakistan is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to Glofs, with an estimated 800,000 people living within 15 km (9.3 miles) of a glacier. Many residents in the Karakoram Range have built their homes on fertile land along rivers fed by glaciers, unaware of the growing risks posed by the melting ice. These glaciers, once stable, are rapidly retreating due to rising temperatures, increasing the likelihood of catastrophic floods that can sweep away entire communities and their livelihoods.
Amna Batool, a schoolgirl from Hassanabad, vividly recalls the harrowing day in 2022 when part of her town, along with a crucial highway bridge, was swept away by the torrents of meltwater cascading down the Hunza River, a tributary of the Indus.
“The flood didn’t just destroy my home and belongings; it took away all my childhood memories,” she said, her eyes fixed on the pile of rubble where her house once stood. The flooding was triggered by unusually high temperatures that caused a lake to form behind the Shisper Glacier. As the glacier’s meltwater accumulated, the lake grew larger and more unstable. Eventually, the pressure became too great, and the lake breached, unleashing a devastating wave of water and debris down into the steep-sided valley below.
For Batool, the destruction was deeply personal. That fateful day, she was at home with her parents and younger brother when the floodwaters arrived. “We had just finished breakfast when we heard a loud rumbling sound, like a thunderstorm, but it was much closer,” she recalled. “Before we could even understand what was happening, the water came rushing in, tearing through everything in its path.”
Batool’s father, Amjad Ali, who worked as a carpenter, tried desperately to secure the family’s belongings, but the force of the water was too powerful. Her mother, frantic with worry, grabbed her younger brother and led them to higher ground. “We ran as fast as we could, but the water was already swallowing our house,” she said.
The flood took everything. “Not only did we lose our home, but our memories, too. The walls that held my childhood, my father’s tools, my mother’s kitchen — everything was gone,” she said, her eyes lingering on the debris that was once their life. The family, now displaced and struggling, holds on to the hope that one day they can rebuild their lives. All eyes on COP
According to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), glaciers in South Asia are on track to lose up to 75pc of their ice by the century’s end due to global warming. As a result of this melting, Pakistan experienced 14 glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) between 2018 and 2021, but that number surged to 75 in 2022, according to data gathered by the UNDP.
Dr Miriam Jackson, senior Cryosphere Specialist at ICIMOD, has discussed at length the alarming shift in the Karakoram region, where glaciers that were once stable or growing are now melting at an accelerated rate. A 2023 ICIMOD report revealed that glacier melt has increased by 65pc over the past decade (2010-2019) compared to the previous one. This is particularly concerning for agriculture, which relies on glacier meltwater, as shrinking glaciers will eventually lead to reduced runoff.
Dr Jackson emphasised that reducing greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to slowing glacier melt, urging countries, including Pakistan, to cut emissions and prioritise public transport. She also called for more research on the cryosphere, as the current knowledge of glaciers and snow is limited. She stressed that COP must focus on urgent climate action to meet the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, warning that millions of people, especially in downstream regions, will be affected by changes in water resources, hydropower, and climate-induced migration.
As world leaders gather for the 29th Conference of the Parties on Climate Change (COP29) — and many others skip it altogether — the Ismail family is among the millions whose plight serves as a stark reminder of the human cost of climate change. Their story is one of resilience but also one of profound loss — loss not just of material possessions, but of a way of life that has been passed down through generations.
The Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is a key international summit where countries discuss and negotiate actions to combat climate change, focusing on goals such as limiting global warming to 1.5°C, reducing emissions, and funding climate adaptation. COP29 is crucial for strengthening global climate commitments, particularly for vulnerable countries like Pakistan, which face severe climate impacts such as floods, melting glaciers, droughts and food insecurity.
Since the Paris Agreement (COP21) in 2015, global climate pledges have aimed to limit warming to 1.5°C and provide $100 billion annually for climate finance. However, progress has been slow.
Despite pledges at COP26 (held in 2021) to phase out coal and reduce methane emissions, many countries are still not meeting their targets. A year on, COP27 (2022) established a loss and damage fund for vulnerable nations, but funding gaps remain.
At COP28 (2023), the focus was on emissions reductions and climate justice, but the lack of binding commitments and slow implementation continues to hinder progress. Overall, while awareness and some actions have increased, global emissions are still rising, and the world remains off track to meet the 1.5°C target.
This year, Pakistan is presenting its case to the international community at COP29 being held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11-22. This is a critical opportunity to amplify its voice and underscore that the climate crisis is not a distant threat, but a present-day reality jeopardising the lives and livelihoods of millions. The Ismail family’s suffering, like that of many others displaced by climate disasters, is not just a matter of physical loss but a profound socio-economic upheaval. Expectations from 2029
Pakistan has high expectations for COP29, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif attending the conference today (Nov 12). The country’s delegation includes key representatives from the Ministry of Climate Change and the National Disaster Management Authority.
Romina Khurshid Alam, the Prime Minister’s Coordinator on Climate Change and Environmental Coordination (MoCC&EC), stressed the crucial role of COP29 as a platform for Pakistan to showcase its climate actions, challenges, and potential solutions. She stressed the importance of global collaboration to achieve climate diplomacy goals, promote gender equality, and advance smart agriculture initiatives through greater private sector involvement.
Alam also highlighted the urgent need to address climate change in Pakistan, one of the world’s most vulnerable nations. Despite contributing less than 1pc of global carbon emissions, she pointed out, Pakistan is bearing the brunt of severe climate disasters — such as floods and droughts—that have devastated infrastructure and livelihoods.
According to Alam, Pakistan, alongside other vulnerable nations, will strongly urge wealthy, high-emission countries to fulfill their climate finance commitments. This funding is crucial to help developing countries cope with the worsening impacts of climate change and support their transition to a low-carbon future through adaptation and mitigation strategies. More importantly, it will decide whether Ismail’s family — and millions like them — get the assistance they so desperately need to restart their lives.
Thus, finance has taken centre stage at COP29, with the Baku summit already being dubbed the “Finance COP.” This focus is largely due to the spotlight on the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG).
An evolution of the 2015 Paris Agreement, the NCQG is designed to replace the previous target of USD100 billion in annual climate finance from developed to developing countries. This target, established in 2009, was meant to be met by 2020. However, most analyses indicate that the actual funding provided has fallen short, despite contrary claims.
For the Ismail family — and millions of others like them — COP29 isn’t just about seeking aid; they are calling for comprehensive policies and long-term solutions that address the root causes of forced migration and provide displaced families like theirs with the tools they need to rebuild their lives and secure a sustainable future. The socio-economic challenges they face are emblematic of the broader crises affecting millions of climate refugees around the world, making urgent action at the global stage more critical than ever.
Header illustration created with generative AI
Nations to submit boosted climate plans at COP29: What’s at stake?
Nearly 200 countries are supposed to publish updated climate plans by early February, but so far only three have done so.
Nations have begun setting carbon-cutting targets for the decade ahead, and how ambitious these pledges are could make or break global efforts to avoid dangerous levels of climate change.
Nearly 200 countries are supposed to publish updated climate plans by early February, but so far only three have done so.
On Wednesday, the UK became the latest, announcing during the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan that it would raise its target to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
All eyes will be on other big polluters like China, India, and the United States, though future US climate action is unclear following Donald Trump’s election. Why do they matter?
The world has agreed to try and limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, but is nowhere near on track.
Above this threshold, scientists say humanity risks disastrous consequences from volatile weather to major ecological “tipping points” at land and sea.
Last month, the United Nations warned that even if all existing plans are implemented in full, temperatures would rise 2.6°C by the century’s end, a catastrophic outcome.
The UN says the next round of climate plans must show a “quantum leap” in ambition to avert the worst.
The G20 — which accounts for 77 per cent of total greenhouse gas emissions — is under particular pressure to step up. Early movers
Just before COP29 opened in Azerbaijan, the United Arab Emirates announced a 47pc reduction in emissions by 2035 compared with 2019 in its updated climate plan.
Observers said the roadmap failed to account for exported emissions —including those from its sales of crude oil abroad.
Next year’s UN climate host, Brazil, has partly unveiled its plan, increasing its emissions reduction target from a 59pc cut by 2035, from 2005 levels, to a 67pc reduction.
It is expected to unveil a more complete plan during COP29.
Plans from other major emitters, like the European Union and China, are not expected until next year.
And the current US government could soon outline Washington’s new pledge, despite questions over Trump following through once in office.
David Waskow, of the World Resources Institute, said it would help guide American cities, states and businesses wishing to continue climate action under Trump.
“It also sends an important signal internationally, a set of benchmarks for what the US ought to do,” he added. What do countries need to do?
By signing the Paris accord, nearly 200 nations agreed to halt rising temperatures “well below 2°C” and strive for the safer goal of 1.5°C.
But it did not prescribe how to get there.
The deal left it up to countries to voluntarily chart their own plans and targets, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
These include emission reduction targets and measures to achieve them, such as rolling out renewable energy, electrifying transport, and ending deforestation.
There is no set template for countries to follow but richer countries —historically the largest emitters — have a responsibility to pledge the deepest emission cuts.
The plans must be reviewed every five years, with each update supposed to be more ambitious than the last. This time around countries are expected to improve their 2030 targets and outline economy-wide action they will take to 2035. What’s the aim?
An agreement at last year’s COP28 climate summit “encouraged” countries to come forward with plans aligned with halting warming to 1.5°C.
To have a hope of meeting that goal, emissions must be slashed 42pc by 2030 and 57pc by 2035, the UN’s Environment Programme said last month.
Currently, however, emissions are continuing to rise.
Keeping 1.5°C on track would require a collective effort “only ever seen following a global conflict”, it added.
Without pulling together “on a scale and pace never seen before… the 1.5°C goal will soon be dead,” said UNEP executive director Inger Andersen.
The big moment for assessing progress towards the 1.5°C goal comes at a crunch COP30 climate summit in Brazil next year. What about fossil fuels?
Scientists and the International Energy Agency have said that developing new fossil fuel projects is incompatible with halting warming to 1.5°C.
But many fossil fuel-producing countries argue that new oil and gas projects will be needed as the world transitions to net zero emissions.
Countries are under pressure to outline in their updated plans how they intend to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels, something all nations agreed on at last year’s COP.
Header image: This picture taken on November 12 shows a wind turbine at the lignite-fired power station operated by German energy giant RWE near Neurath, western Germany.
— AFP
UNFCCC COP29 side event in Baku to highlight the role of Open Science and science-policy communication in biodiversity and climate change
Pensoft Publishers
image:
Pensoft Publishers is set to host an open side event at the UNFCCC’s COP29 on 21 November 2024
Pensoft Publishers is set to host an open side event at the UNFCCC’s COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan. This event will showcase how Open Science and Science Communication shape the Science-Policy Interface (SPI) that can effectively support the implementation of knowledge-based policies and tackle critical biodiversity challenges related to climate change.
The 29th Conference of Parties (COP29) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is to be held from 11 to 22 November 2024, will take forward some of the discussions started at the 16th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP16). The two multilateral agreements are set to align their efforts towards the creation of a coordinated climate and biodiversity action to address global priorities of the highest importance.
On the 21st of November, at the national pavilion of the Republic of Bulgaria at COP29 (Baku, Azerbaijan), academic publisher and science technology provider Pensoft Publishers will host a side event to shed light on how open-access research and science communication in the field of biodiversity enables the SPI to effectively support the implementation of the Paris Agreement and the Kunming-Montreal Biodiversity Framework (KM-GBF).
The topic of the event is highly relevant to the dialogue between climate and biodiversity research and political decision-making. Effective science-policy interface is pivotal for informing evidence-based policies, enabling effective strategies and actions under the biodiversity and climate frameworks.
Side Event: Supporting Climate and Biodiversity Policy Through Open Science and Science Communication
Date: 21 November 2024
Time: 13:30 - 14:30 (GMT+4)
Location: Country pavilion of the Republic of Bulgaria, COP29, Baku, Azerbaijan
This event will demonstrate the importance of open science for achieving efficient evidence-based political decision making, as well as showcase prominent examples of EU-funded projects that shape the SPIs integrating scientific research into policy frameworks to ensure the successful implementation of the KM-GBF.
The event is expected to attract delegates and attendees of the COP29 summit, including policymakers, researchers, and civil society representatives, as it offers a platform for a highly impactful and engaging dialogue.
Find out more information about the upcoming events, the organisers, and research results related to biodiversity policy at the dedicated COP29 webpage.
Interviews with event organisers and panellists can be arranged upon request.
For more information or to schedule interviews, please contact: Alexandra Korcheva a.korcheva@pensoft.net Pensoft Publishers
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About Pensoft Publishers:
Pensoft is an independent academic publishing company, well known worldwide for its novel cutting-edge publishing tools, workflows and methods for text and data publishing of journals, books and conference materials; as well as its open-access journal portfolio of over 50 peer-reviewed scientific titles, most of them dedicated to the domains of biodiversity and ecology. Through its Research and Technical Development department, the company is involved in various research and technology projects funded by EU programmes such as Horizon 2020 and Horizon Europe.
