China Splits Port Investments Between High- and Low-Income Countries

The operator of the port of Piraeus is majority-owned by China COSCO (Apaleutos25 / CC BY SA 4.0)

Published Mar 9, 2026 4:24 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

The protracted port dispute in Panama involving the Chinese operator CK Hutchison has revealed how strategic harbors could act as a flashpoint in global power competition. In a world where geopolitical tensions continue to rise, control over critical ports is being seen as a means to assert sea power - particularly when it comes to Chinese control.  

Last week, AidData, a research lab at the College of William and Mary, released a new dataset capturing the unprecedented rise of Chinese influence in foreign ports. The report traces Beijing’s global ports footprint spanning over two decades between 2000 and 2025. Over the course of that period, Chinese entities and state-owned enterprises provided loans and grants worth nearly $24 billion for 168 ports across 90 countries.

While AidData has previously investigated Beijing’s financing of ports around the world, the 2026 update provides new data on Chinese-funded shoreside equipment, including cranes and scanners. It also includes proposed port investments which are yet to be funded, including Lobito port in Angola, Sandino port in Nicaragua and Mubarak Al-Kabeer port in Kuwait.

Notably, AidData noted that its research rarely found evidence to support the ‘debt trap’ narrative, popularly used to describe Chinese overseas ports financing.

If anything, this new report strengthens the argument that China does not seek sovereign control of overseas territory as much as it does strategic security,” said Alexander Wooley, AidData’s Director of Partnerships and Communications.

Wooley added that China’s overseas port network provide an anchor for its global maritime supply chains. The network provides a geopolitical benefit: a parallel logistics system that offers Beijing strategic independence, free from interference from rivals, and permits it to contemplate a military counter to potential blockades that could be attempted by an enemy in any future conflict.

Indeed, the report found that Chinese state-owned creditors are increasingly co-locating port financing with other investments vital for China’s national security, such as critical minerals mining. The report identified 22 Chinese-financed mines within a 500-kilometer radius of Chinese-funded seaports. Leading examples include the Port of Chancay in Peru and its proximity to the Las Bambas copper mine, as well as the Port of Morébaya in Guinea, developed by Chinese investors together with the Simandou Iron mining project.

Most importantly, the report clarifies a common misconception that Chinese port investments are focused on developing economies.

"Chinese financing for global seaports is almost evenly split between high-income and low- and middle-income countries,” said Rory Fedorochko, the report’s co-author and Program Manager at AidData. “Some $10.8 billion supports 29 port locations across 20 high-income countries including Greece, Spain, Australia, New Zealand and Singapore- for projects where the intent is generally commercial, rather than geopolitical.”

Some of the ports heavily financed by China include Hambantota in Sri Lanka ($1.97 billion), Port of Newcastle in Australia ($1.32 billion), the Autonomous Port of Kribi in Cameroon ($1.17 billion), the Port of Melbourne in Australia ($1.14 billion) and Haifa Port in Israel ($1.13 billion).

Top image: Apaleutos25 / CC BY SA 4.0

CK Hutchison Seeks $2B in Damages from Panama as It Takes More Legal Steps

Panama asserts both ports are operating normally as Hutchison continues to challenge the ruling (President of Panama)

Published Mar 6, 2026 2:53 PM by The Maritime Executive

CK Hutchison and its Panama-based subsidiary, the Panama Ports Company, have taken a series of additional legal steps in the ongoing dispute over the concession to operate terminals in the ports of Balboa and Cristobal. As part of the action, the Panama Ports Company (PPC) clarified that under the already filed international arbitration, it is seeking at least $2 billion in damages, a figure it says Panama has been misrepresenting.

Before the Supreme Court decision was published finalizing the ruling that the contracts were unconstitutional, Hutchison had already said it would begin an arbitration under the rules of the International Chamber of Commerce. The ruling was finalized, and Panama seized the two ports on February 23 and immediately entered into temporary contracts with divisions of Maersk and MSC to operate the ports.

Both PPC and its parent company, CK Hutchison, report they have increased the legal actions, saying they will “not relent and they are not coming for some token relief.” They are calling the actions of Panama “radical breaches” while continuing to assert the actions were inconsistent with applicable law, contract, and treaty rights.

CK Hutchison, in today’s statement (March 6), continues to say Panama has a pattern of disregarding communications and discontinuing consultations. They assert it was part of a “state campaign” that had been carried out over the past year. It also accuses the state of “various inaccurate remarks,” which it says have “further aggravated the circumstances.”

The company has filed an administrative petition seeking reconsideration of the decree that empowered what Hutchison calls the “occupation” of the ports and the taking of its property and personnel. 

PPC says it is seeking recourse related to the decree based on its extreme scope mandating the taking of all its property. It is also challenging the “radical implementation” of the decree, and the seizure and misuse of property, it says, is unrelated to port operations.

They are asserting that Panama entered a private storage facility and unlawfully seized documents. They are demanding immediate access to and return of property and legally protected documents and information. Investigators for Panama had confirmed they searched the company’s offices, saying it was related to new information about possible crimes.

Panama said when it took over the operations of the port terminals that it was also taking control of all the equipment and information. It, however, was careful not to claim ownership but instead said it was controlling the equipment needed to continue the operation of the terminals.

The Panama Maritime Authority reported that as of February 28, terminal operations were back to 100 percent in Balboa under the management of APM Terminals. It said that operations had been open at Cristobal under the management of Terminal Investment Limited (TiL), a division of MSC, since February 27. The authority has said the country’s intent is to hold new tenders within 18 months and that companies would be limited to operating the terminals in one port to further increase competition.

FEATURE

The world is facing a global copper shortage

LONG READ

Thanks to the growing combined demand from AI, EVs and the green energy revolution, global demand is going to outstrip supply and copper prices are already soaring in anticipation.  / bne IntelliNews

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By Ben Aris in Berlin February 2, 2026

The world is on track to run short of copper that could pose a “systemic risk” to global economic growth, driven by the energy transition and the booming artificial intelligence sector’s demand for the red metal, S&P Global said in a report on January 8

The looming deficit is forecast to reach 10mn tonnes — equivalent to almost one-third of current global demand — by 2040, in the absence of a “meaningful expansion of supply”, according to S&P Global .

“The shortage would be 23.8% shy of the projected demand of 42mn tonnes by 2040, even as recycled copper scrap more than doubles to 10mn tonnes,” according to the "Copper in the Age of AI: The Challenges of Electrification" study.

“The supply gap threatens to constrain technological advancement and economic growth as copper becomes increasingly essential for AI data centres, electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure and defence systems,’ the report said.

Production shortfall

Without significant changes to supply, global copper production is projected to peak at 33mn tonnes in 2030 before declining, while demand is expected to surge 50% from current levels.

“The widening disconnect highlights copper's dual role as both enabler and potential bottleneck for the energy transition and digital transformation,” S&P Global said.

Four key demand vectors are driving copper consumption higher. Core economic demand from construction, appliances and traditional industries is expected to reach 23mn tonnes by 2040, representing 53% of global demand. Energy transition demand from electric vehicles, battery storage and renewable power is projected to increase by more than 7.1mn tonnes to 15.6mn tonnes over the same period.

In addition, AI and data centre demand is expected to triple by 2040 as total installed capacity reaches 550 GW, more than five times 2022 levels, according to the study. The world’s biggest mining group BHP estimated in January that the amount of copper used in data centres worldwide will grow “sixfold by 2050”.

Another largely hidden demand factor is defence spending that could double to $6 trillion by 2040 amid rising international tensions.

Together just data centres and defence represent a combined 4mn tonnes of additional copper demand.

Demand for copper is being boosted by the construction of grid infrastructure for the green transition as well as data centres for artificial intelligence. These need between 27 and 33 tonnes of copper per megawatt of power, according to miner Grupo México, over twice the requirement of conventional data centres.

The study also identifies humanoid robots as a potential fifth demand vector; 1bn units in operation by 2040 would require about 1.6mn tonnes of copper annually, equivalent to 6% of current demand.

The study estimates that an additional 10mn tonnes of primary supply will be required by 2040 beyond increased recycling. However, without significant investment, global primary production could reach just 22mn tonnes by 2040, 1mn tonnes below current levels.

Supply side constraints

On the supply side, declining ore grades, rising energy and labour costs, complex extraction conditions and lengthy permitting processes combine to limit new mine development, the report said.

Supply chain concentration adds another layer of risk. Only six countries are responsible for roughly two-thirds of mining production, according to the study. The International Energy Agency said this year that by 2035, production from existing and planned mines was on track to meet only 70% of global demand.

Existing mines, some dating back more than a century, are getting older and less productive, while large untapped deposits are becoming harder to find. 20 mines produce about a third of the copper mined globally. Of the 239 copper deposits discovered between 1990 and 2023, only 14 were discovered in the past decade, according to the IEA.

China accounts for approximately 40% of global smelting capacity and 66% of copper concentrate imports, making the global supply vulnerable to policy shocks and trade barriers, the report said.

Analysts are expecting shortfalls as soon as this year, with consultancy Wood Mackenzie forecasting a 304,000-tonne shortfall of refined copper in 2025, a gap it says will widen in 2026. Prices have already risen to record levels in anticipation. 

Prices rising

Copper is the “new gold” and has already made record gains as fears of a global shortfall mount, rising by the highest amount in over a decade

Copper soared to a record high of more than $13,000 per tonne on January 2 compared with around $8,500 two years ago, as concerns over supply disruption and tariffs extended a rally that has pushed up the price of the metal by almost a third since October, after disruptions at several large mines.

Analysts at BMI, part of Fitch Group, said they expected the price of copper to average $11,000 per tonne this year, while prices would reach $17,000 per tonne in 2034.

US President Donald Trump added to the uncertainty in December, adding copper to a list of critical minerals vital for the US economy. Fears that the Trump’s administration may impose additional import tariffs on the metal have also driven up demand The amount of copper in US Comex warehouses has jumped to a record high of more than 450,000 tonnes, compared with less than 100,000 tonnes a year ago and about 400,000 at the start of December, the Financial Times reports.

Country breakdown of the main copper producers.

Chile

·       Annual copper production (2022): 5.2mn tonnes

·       Proven copper reserves: 190mn tonnes (USGS estimate, 2023)

·       Major companies: Codelco (state-owned), BHP, Anglo American, Antofagasta PLC, Freeport-McMoRan

Chile is the world’s largest copper producer and holds the largest proven reserves globally. State-owned miner Codelco dominates domestic output, followed by major multinational operations, including BHP’s Escondida mine — the largest copper mine in the world. Despite resource abundance, the sector has faced recent challenges, including declining ore grades, water scarcity in arid regions, labour unrest, and regulatory uncertainty linked to environmental reforms and proposed tax changes. Nonetheless, Chile remains the cornerstone of global copper supply.

Peru

·       Annual copper production (2022): 2.4mn tonnes

·       Proven copper reserves: 92mn tonnes

·       Major companies: Southern Copper Corporation, MMG, Glencore, Freeport-McMoRan, Anglo American

Peru is the second-largest global producer of copper and has rapidly expanded its mining capacity over the past decade. The Las Bambas, Antamina, and Cerro Verde mines are among the country’s most significant operations. Copper accounts for a substantial share of Peru’s export revenue. While the government has maintained a generally investment-friendly stance, mining projects often face delays due to community opposition and social conflicts, particularly in rural Andean regions. Infrastructure and political instability continue to impact investment flows.

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

·       Annual copper production (2022): 2.2mn tonnes

·       Proven copper reserves: 25mn tonnes

·       Major companies: China Molybdenum (CMOC), Glencore, Ivanhoe Mines, Gécamines (state-owned)

The DRC has emerged as a top-three copper producer, driven by heavy Chinese investment and joint ventures with state-owned Gécamines. The Tenke Fungurume and Kamoa-Kakula complexes are among the most productive and rapidly expanding copper sites globally. While rich in high-grade deposits, the sector is hindered by governance risks, poor infrastructure, and fluctuating mining policies. Nevertheless, output continues to rise, positioning the DRC as a key supplier for future green energy demand.

China

·       Annual copper production (2022): 1.8mn tonnes

·       Proven copper reserves: 26mn tonnes

·       Major companies: Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Zijin Mining, China Nonferrous Mining Corp

China is the world’s largest consumer of copper accounting for around 58% of 2025 demand and among the top five producers, although it relies heavily on imports to meet domestic demand. Copper production is concentrated in several provinces, including Jiangxi and Yunnan. State-owned firms dominate the sector, and the government continues to invest heavily in both domestic mining and overseas copper assets. Environmental regulations have tightened in recent years, leading to modernisation and consolidation in the domestic industry.

China itself only produces around 9% of the world’s mined copper, but that figure rises to around 20% after taking into account overseas projects it has ownership stakes in, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. China now controls around half of copper smelting capacity worldwide. The US, by contrast, has just two operational copper smelters.

In China, the domestic build-out of smelters has been so dramatic in recent years that there is not enough copper ore to feed all the facilities globally. Miners used to pay smelters to process their ore; now it is the other way around. The prospect of new copper smelters opening outside China in the short term — something western policymakers want, in order to reduce their reliance on Beijing — is unlikely. They are expensive to build, energy-intensive to operate and run on thin profit margins.

United States

·       Annual copper production (2022): 1.2mn tonnes

·       Proven copper reserves: 48mn tonnes

·       Major companies: Freeport-McMoRan, Rio Tinto, Grupo México (via Asarco), Capstone Copper

The US copper sector is led by Freeport-McMoRan, which operates the Morenci and Bagdad mines in Arizona. Domestic production has been relatively stable but is challenged by permitting delays, environmental opposition, and aging infrastructure. Projects such as Rio Tinto’s Resolution Copper remain stalled due to legal and community opposition. Nevertheless, the US retains significant untapped reserves and has seen renewed policy interest in critical minerals, including copper, amid supply chain and energy transition concerns.

Australia

·       Annual copper production (2022): 900,000 tonnes

·       Proven copper reserves: 87mn tonnes

·       Major companies: BHP, Glencore, OZ Minerals (acquired by BHP), Sandfire Resources

Australia is a leading copper reserve holder, with large-scale operations such as BHP’s Olympic Dam and Glencore’s Mount Isa complex. The country benefits from a stable regulatory environment, advanced infrastructure, and strong ESG standards. In 2023, BHP completed its acquisition of OZ Minerals, consolidating control over several copper and nickel assets critical to the energy transition. While not among the top three in annual output, Australia is well-positioned for long-term supply growth.

Russia

·       Annual copper production (2022): 900,000 tonnes

·       Proven copper reserves: 62mn tonnes

·       Major companies: Norilsk Nickel, Ural Mining and Metallurgical Company (UMMC), Russian Copper Company

Russia holds large copper reserves and maintains significant domestic production, largely consumed by its own industrial base or exported to Asia. The sector is dominated by vertically integrated giants like Norilsk Nickel, which also produces palladium and nickel. Since the onset of Western sanctions in 2022, Russia has faced reduced access to equipment and capital markets, which may hinder future development and investment in the copper sector.

After more than a decade in the making, strip-mining operations began in the depths of Siberia at Udokan, one of the largest copper deposits in the world, in August 2020. As bne IntelliNews reported, the mine belongs to Alisher Usmanov, one of the richest men in Russia and contains an estimate 26.7mn tonnes of copper ore that was discovered in Soviet times, but proved technically difficult to develop thanks to its remote location in the region near Lake Baikal. Usmanov have invested some $3bn into developing the mine,

Mongolia

·       Annual copper production (2022): 350,000 tonnes

·       Proven copper reserves: 30mn tonnes (estimated)

·       Major companies: Rio Tinto (via Turquoise Hill Resources), Erdenes Oyu Tolgoi (state-owned), Mongolyn Alt (MAK)

Mongolia is a rising copper producer with significant long-term potential, driven primarily by the massive Oyu Tolgoi mine — one of the largest known copper and gold deposits in the world. Located in the South Gobi Desert, Oyu Tolgoi is operated by Rio Tinto and co-owned with the Mongolian government through Erdenes Oyu Tolgoi. Underground development of the mine began commercial production in 2023, substantially boosting national output. Mongolia’s copper sector is strategically important due to its proximity to China, which receives the bulk of its exports. However, the country faces logistical challenges, regulatory uncertainties, and the need to balance foreign investment with national resource sovereignty. Additional deposits such as Tsagaan Suvarga and projects under MAK may further expand production in the coming decade.

Kazakhstan

·       Annual copper production (2022): ~600,000 tonnes

·       Proven copper reserves: ~20mn tonnes

·       Major companies: Kaz Minerals, KAZ Minerals Group (formerly part of ENRC), Glencore (via Kazzinc), East Copper Company (ERG)

Kazakhstan is a significant copper producer in Central Asia, with a well-established mining sector and extensive undeveloped mineral potential. The industry is led by Kaz Minerals, which operates several large-scale open-pit mines, including Bozshakol, Aktogay, and Artemyevsky. These assets have undergone major expansion since 2015, boosting national output and positioning the company as a key supplier to China. Glencore, through its subsidiary Kazzinc, is also active in the sector, operating polymetallic mines with copper by-products.

The country’s copper sector is supported by substantial reserves and improving infrastructure, including rail and energy links to China and Europe. State-backed industrial policy has prioritised mining investment, though challenges persist around environmental regulation, water availability, and fluctuating export demand. The sector is also home to East Copper Company, part of the Eurasian Resources Group (ERG), which operates copper concentrate facilities as part of its diversified mining portfolio. Kazakhstan is considered strategically important for the global copper supply chain due to its location, resource base, and growing trade ties with China and the Eurasian Economic Union.

MONOPOLY CAPITALI$M

Rio Tinto-Glencore merger may need asset sales to win over China

Reuters | January 16, 2026 | 

Oyu Tolgoi open pit has been producing since 2012. (Image courtesy of Turquoise Hill.)

The proposed tie-up between Rio Tinto and Glencore could require asset sales to secure regulatory approval from top commodity buyer China, which has longstanding concerns about resource security and market concentration.

The two mining giants revealed last week that for the second time in two years they were in early merger talks – potentially creating the world’s largest mining company with a market value of more than $200 billion.

But analysts and lawyers said the scale of their sales to China means any deal will need approval from Beijing, as have past mining mega-deals such as Glencore’s $35 billion purchase of Xstrata in 2013.

China’s antitrust regulator is likely to be concerned about a combined entity’s concentration in copper production and marketing as well as iron ore marketing, several analysts and lawyers told Reuters. Beijing may also see an opportunity to force asset sales to friendly entities, they added.

Even before the Glencore talks were made public, Rio Tinto had already been exploring an asset-for-equity swap aimed at trimming the 11% holding of its biggest shareholder, state-run Aluminium Corporation of China, known as Chinalco. Rio Tinto’s Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea and Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia were among the assets of interest to Chinalco, sources said then.

To get the Glencore deal over the line, assets in Africa are especially likely sales candidates as Latin America has become less accepting of Chinese investment, according to Glyn Lawcock, an analyst at Barrenjoey in Sydney.

“China will see this as an opportunity to squeeze out assets,” he said.

China’s commerce ministry, its market regulator and Chinalco did not respond to questions about the deal. Glencore and Rio Tinto declined to comment.

Glencore precedent

Glencore has been here before. In 2013, Chinese regulators forced the Swiss-based company to sell its stake in the Las Bambas copper mine in Peru, one of the world’s largest, to Chinese investors for nearly $6 billion in exchange for blessing its takeover of Xstrata.

“The Las Bambas deal is still looked at as a very successful solution and it’s going to be a potential playbook that regulators can draw on,” a China-based partner at an international law firm said on condition of anonymity.

Glencore also agreed to sell Chinese customers minimum quantities of copper concentrate at certain prices for just over seven years as Beijing was concerned the merged group would have too much power over the copper market.

 

Rio Tinto, Glencore mull ASX coal spin-off

Cecilia Jamasmie | January 15, 2026

Glencore is one of Australia’s largest coal exporters, operating 13 mines in New South Wales and Queensland. (Image courtesy of Glencore.)

Rio Tinto (RIO) and Glencore (GLEN) are said to be examining whether a coal-heavy business could be spun off into an ASX-listed vehicle as part of early-stage talks on a potential merger that would create the world’s largest mining company.

The companies confirmed last week they are discussing a possible combination of some or all of their businesses, sparking speculation about how assets that sit awkwardly together would be handled, particularly coal and Glencore’s lucrative trading arm. 

“All we know is that they are trying to hammer out important details, like the price, the premium, who would run the new company, exactly what structure it would have,” Clara Ferreira Marques, Bloomberg’s Asia-Pacific head of commodities, said on the The Australia Podcast on Thursday.

“They’re hiring banking teams to help them do that, and they really have to come up with some sort of proposal by the fifth of February to meet the UK takeover panel rules.”

One option under consideration is carving out coal assets, potentially into a separately listed Australian vehicle, echoing BHP’s (ASX, LON: BHP) South32 demerger a decade ago.

Glencore’s coal operations across NSW, Queensland, central Africa and Latin America would account for about 8% of a combined group’s $45.6 billion in EBITDA and could be worth tens of billions of dollars. Glencore’s trading arm, which would represent about 9% of earnings, remains another sensitive piece of the puzzle.

Analysts have also floated alternatives, including Glencore spinning off coal ahead of any transaction or Rio bidding only for Glencore’s copper assets, following Glencore’s decision last year to abandon a self-driven coal separation.

Why now

The renewed talks come as pressures that were present a year ago have intensified, particularly around copper, scale and market positioning.

“What has changed since the last time they held talks is that some of the issues that were already there a year ago have become a lot more stark,” Ferreira Marques said. “You look at the copper price, we’re now over $13,000 a tonne. That makes the case for adding copper to your portfolio not only compelling, but urgent.”

Courtesy of Benchmark’s Copper Service.

She added that Rio’s recent share price performance has improved the financial logic of a deal, while the sector’s shrinking relative size has become harder to ignore. 

Demand for the metal is anticipated to rise by as much as 50% by 2040, according to S&P Global Energy & Market Intelligence, leading to a projected production deficit of up to 10 million tonnes annually by that time.

A Rio Tinto-Glencore tie-up would position the new company as the leading copper producer globally, accounting for approximately 7% of the world’s output.

“You look at Rio Tinto at about $141 billion, and then you look at Nvidia at $4.5 trillion,” she said. “The problem of scale is very important. It’s not just about being the biggest, it’s about being able to attract generalist investors, talent and opportunities.”

1. Includes copper demand from construction, cooling, appliances, fossil power generation, machinery and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. 2. Includes copper demand from clean energy technologies, transmission and distribution and EVs. (Courtesy of S&P’s Copper in the Age of AI.)

Leadership changes have also helped reset the dynamic. Rio now has a new chief executive in Simon Trott and a more deal-minded chair in Dominic Barton, while Glencore is led by Gary Nagle, who has called the tie-up the “most obvious” deal in mining. 

Previous talks in late 2024 stalled over valuation, culture and control, but people familiar with the discussions say both sides now appear more open to compromise.

Hurdles ahead

Price remains the primary obstacle, followed closely by cultural fit, coal exposure and regulatory risk. Rio exited thermal coal in 2018, and some investors remain constrained by mandates that bar coal holdings, even as the political climate in the US has softened and coal profitability has endured longer than expected.

Antitrust scrutiny would be significant, particularly given China’s role as a major stakeholder in Rio, and the operational risks tied to Glencore’s copper assets in jurisdictions such as the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Speculation that BHP could attempt to disrupt the talks with a rival bid for Glencore has so far been played down.

“At this point, it’s unlikely,” Ferreira Marques said. “BHP is not a company that jumps on things at the last minute. The signalling is very much that they wouldn’t step in.” 

She cautioned, however, that early-stage deals can still unravel. “When companies talk about an M&A deal, they basically tell the world that they need to do something,” she said, adding that BHP’s earlier bid for Anglo American (LON: AAL) helped reopen the door to mega-deals across the sector.

Whether the talks culminate in a full merger that gives rise to a GlenTinto, a RioCore or something else entirely, a partial asset deal or yet another false start, the discussions underscore how urgently the world’s biggest miners are hunting for growth in an increasingly copper-constrained world.

Copper assets are in even higher demand today given the metal’s role in the green transition and artificial intelligence. Rio Tinto and Glencore are shifting their focus to the metal, as are rival miners including Australia’s BHP.

Chinese regulators will also be examining a planned $53 billion copper-focused merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources, Teck CEO Jonathan Price said in September.

Political challenges

Copper’s rising importance is politicizing the metal. The White House has alluded to China’s dominance over the supply chain as a direct threat to national security, and it remains to be seen how it would react to major mineral asset sales to Chinese interests.

A combined Rio Tinto-Glencore would market about 17% of global copper supply, according to Lawcock, although analysts at Barclays say the share of mine production is only 7.5% and unlikely to trigger major antitrust concerns.

Nonetheless politics has doomed deals before.

US chipmaker Qualcomm walked away from a $44 billion deal to buy NXP Semiconductors in 2018 after failing to get approval from Chinese regulators in what was seen as a response to the trade war then underway between Washington and Beijing. The inability to get Chinese regulators on board similarly sank Nvidia’s proposed takeover of Arm Ltd.

In previous resource deals, however, Beijing has given approval as part of a bargain. A year before the sale of Las Bambas, Beijing required major changes to a tie-up between Japan’s Marubeni and US grain merchant Gavilon, citing food security concerns.

“Clearly this would be a long, complicated deal from a regulatory approval perspective,” Mark Kelly, CEO of advisory firm MKI Global Partners, wrote in a note, “and the presence of Chinalco on Rio’s shareholder register always complicates this picture further.”

(By Lewis Jackson, Amy Lv, Melanie Burton, Anousha Sakoui and Clara Denina; Editing by Veronica Brown, Tony Munroe and Jamie Freed)

 

Copper’s next shortage is structural, not hype: analyst

Cecilia Jamasmie | December 17, 2025 | 

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Copper cathodes at Gabriela Mistral mine. (Image courtesy of Codelco.)

Copper is heading into a structural deficit from 2026 as demand from electrification accelerates faster than new supply, according to BloombergNEF, with geopolitical intervention now the single biggest force shaping metals markets.

In its December report, Transition Metals Outlook 2025, BloombergNEF says copper faces the most acute pressure among transition metals, driven by rapid growth in data centres, grid expansion and electric-vehicle adoption. Energy-transition demand for copper is set to triple by 2045, pushing the market into persistent deficit unless investment and recycling ramp up.

Kwasi Ampofo, head of metals and mining at BloombergNEF, told MINING.COM the imbalance reflects rising demand colliding with slow project delivery. “Copper, platinum and palladium have experienced very slow capacity addition at a time where demand is growing,” he said, calling them the commodities under the greatest near-term pressure.

Supply constraints are already visible. Disruptions in Chile (Quebrada Blanca, El Teniente), Indonesia (Grasberg) and Peru (Las Bambas, Constancia), paired with slow permitting, have tightened the market. BloombergNEF estimates the copper shortfall could reach 19 million tonnes by 2050 without new mines or significant gains in scrap collection.

Short-term price moves

Prices are up 35% so far this year and heading for their largest gain since 2009. While the copper-shortage debate often blurs short-term price moves with long-term fundamentals, Ampofo said BloombergNEF’s outlook is grounded in structural supply-demand trends. Bringing new supply online this decade will require sustained investment to expand existing projects, streamlined permitting and better recycling systems.

That long-term view is increasingly shared by miners. BloombergNEF notes renewed capital spending and consolidation across producers including Anglo American (LON:AAL), BHP (ASX:BHP), Glencore (LON:GLEN), Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO), Vale (NYSE:VALE) and Zijin (HKEX:2899). Ampofo said the surge in mergers and acquisitions signals copper’s growing strategic value, a conclusion the firm’s analysis supports.

The others

While copper dominates near-term concerns, the report highlights diverging paths across other metals.

Aluminum supply remains heavily concentrated in China, which produces half the world’s output. A government cap aimed at curbing emissions has left little room to grow, and BNEF says the ceiling’s constraint on supply could persist unless raised. China’s share declines to 37% by 2050 in the Economic Transition Scenario, while India more than doubles production over the next decade.

Graphite demand rises from 2.7 million tonnes in 2025 to 6.7 million tonnes in 2050, driven by its central role in lithium-ion battery anodes. The market is expected to slip into technical deficit in 2032 as secondary supply from retired batteries fails to match the slowdown in primary-supply growth.

Lithium supply, by contrast, continues to grow. Total capacity could hit 4.4 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2035, up from 1.5 million tonnes in 2025, supported by new South American and African projects, maturing direct-extraction technologies and rising secondary supply. Prices remain low after falling from a 2022 peak of $80,000 per tonne, though recent disruptions and subsidy reductions have triggered a modest recovery.

Manganese supply remains broadly aligned with demand through 2050 thanks to stable ore availability and dominant use in steelmaking, which accounts for 97% of consumption. Short-term risks persist due to logistics challenges in South Africa and Gabon’s planned 2029 export ban.

Cobalt prices have rebounded after the Democratic Republic of Congo imposed a four-month export ban in February, later replaced with a quota system that caps annual exports at 96,600 tonnes for 2026–27, a 50% cut from 2024 levels. Prices climbed 128% from February to October as the market tightened.

China’s dominance

Despite broad investment in critical-minerals supply chains, China retains dominance across most midstream refining, especially in aluminum, graphite, manganese, cobalt, nickel and rare earths. Europe and the US remain heavily exposed in graphite, manganese, nickel and lithium, while Japan and South Korea rely on diversified imports and recycling. 

Geopolitics now underpins many of those strategies. Ampofo said government involvement can unlock capital but also heightens the risk of conflict, and warned that subsidies alone will not resolve supply-chain concentration. Looking ahead, he said price signals in 2026 will be critical, either encouraging new supply or curbing demand through substitution.

The report also underscores the need to decarbonize metals used in clean-energy infrastructure. Steel, aluminum and copper carry the highest embodied emissions, and while solar and wind projects offset those emissions within months of operation, BloombergNEF cautions that slow progress upstream could lengthen the carbon payback period.