American Meteorological Society and partners issue statement on public availability of scientific evidence on climate change

Statement responds to removal of climate science from U.S. judicial reference manual and proposed removal of the same information by the National Academies

American Meteorological Society

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The American Meteorological Society, joined by partner societies including the Ecological Society of America, the American Statistical Association, the Woodwell Climate Research Center, and the American Institute of Biological Sciences, has released a statement on “Public Availability of Scientific Information and Scientific Evidence on Climate Change” in response to the decision by the Federal Judiciary Center (FJC) to remove the climate science chapter from the Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, Fourth Edition and a February letter from 21 state attorneys general urging the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) to omit similar guidance regarding climate change.

The AMS statement emphasizes that the removed chapter reflects the broad scientific conclusions reached through decades of rigorous research and comprehensive assessments conducted by thousands of independent scientists and scientific organizations.

AMS and the co-signing societies warn that removing this material could limit access by public officials—including those in the legal system—to the best available scientific understanding of climate change, while also potentially discouraging scientists from contributing expertise to public decision-making.

The statement begins as follows:

“The American Meteorological Society and the scientific societies listed below are surprised and concerned with the decision by the Federal Judiciary Center (FJC) to remove the climate science chapter from the Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, Fourth Edition and the subsequent letter of February 19, 2026 from 21 attorneys general to the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM). 

We are surprised because the climate science chapter from the Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, Fourth Edition, is consistent with all other comprehensive, robust, and rigorous assessments of the science that we are familiar with. It reflects the broad scientific conclusions that result from comprehensive evaluations of evidence and that are based on the efforts of thousands of independent scientists.1 The evidence relating to climate change has been comprehensively assessed hundreds of times by subject matter experts and scientific organizations that are motivated to be scientifically accurate—people and organizations whose credibility increases with scientific accuracy or diminishes with scientific errors.

Therefore, the FJC decision and the subsequent letter appear to us to be at odds with decades of intensive scientific investigation.

We also have two concerns: 1) that removal of the chapter will mean that public officials will not have access to the best available scientific knowledge and understanding with respect to climate change, and 2) that the actions of people in positions of power will discourage scientists from providing public officials with the best available knowledge and understanding.”

Footnote: 1. The science of climate change spans dozens of fields and sub-fields within the physical, natural, and social sciences relating to the Earth and environment. These include (but are not limited to) atmospheric physics, atmospheric chemistry, oceanography (physical, chemical, and biological), cryology, glaciology, biology, physiology, biogeography, biogeochemistry, health, and economics, among others. Each of these disciplines has hundreds of practicing scientists—tens of thousands of scientists overall.

Read the full statement here.

The statement reiterates several key scientific conclusions: that climate change is occurring at an unusual rate and scale, that human activities are the primary driver, that the impacts are harmful and increasing, and that these findings reflect overwhelming agreement among experts who study the evidence.

AMS and its partners urge reinstatement of the climate science chapter and reaffirm their readiness to assist public officials in accessing and applying the best available scientific knowledge.
 

 

AMS Science Preview: Mississippi River, ocean carbon storage, gender and floods

Early online research from journals of the American Meteorological Society

American Meteorological Society

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The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Many of these articles are available for early online access–they are peer-reviewed, but not yet in their final published form. Below are some recent examples of online and early-online research.

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JOURNAL ARTICLES

21st Century Hydrological Trends in the Mississippi River Basin Intensify the East to West Moisture Gradient
Journal of Climate

Models suggest precipitation and evaporation will both increase in the Mississippi basin. A study combining 19 climate models suggests that under a medium-high carbon emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0), precipitation will increase throughout the Mississippi River basin in the 21st century. However, soil moisture is likely to decrease due to increased evaporation. Water runoff and river discharge appear to vary among the different models and river sub-basins, but in general runoff tends to increase in eastern areas, with drying more likely in the Missouri River sub-basin.

Understanding the Role of Climate Skepticism in Climate Change Adaptation: a case study of Western U.S. ranchers
Weather, Climate, and Society

Western U.S. ranchers are skeptical of climate change. They adapt anyway. Interviews with 23 ranchers in western U.S. rangelands found that most professed doubt about anthropogenic climate change, yet were very aware of changes in their environment. They adopted a range of adaptation strategies without attributing them to climate change. The researchers suggest that a position of climate skepticism allows ranchers to adapt to protect their livelihoods while preserving personal identity and community beliefs.

Stronger Southern Ocean Anthropogenic Carbon Uptake in Eddying Ocean Simulations
Journal of Climate

High-resolution models show increased Southern Ocean carbon absorption. Low-resolution Earth system models often fail to simulate medium-scale ocean eddies and similar features. A new study finds that higher-resolution models of the Southern Ocean, which do simulate those eddies, show the Southern Ocean taking up about 10% more anthropogenic carbon. This helps explain discrepancies between models and observations, and suggests that low-resolution models may underestimate carbon storage in the Southern Ocean.

The Role of Gender in Flood Mortality in European and Mediterranean Territories
Weather, Climate, and Society

Men are overrepresented in European flood deaths. Data from 2,875 flood fatalities in European and Mediterranean areas finds that men accounted for 61% of deaths. Male fatalities were more likely to occur in high-risk, active, and outdoor settings such as crossing rivers, while women were more likely to die in indoor and more passive settings such as being trapped at home by flood waters.

Projected Future Changes of Atmospheric Rivers by a High- and Low-resolution CESM
Journal of Climate

High-and low-resolution simulations agree atmospheric rivers will be more frequent and intense under warming. Most projections of future atmospheric rivers (ARs) rely on low-resolution climate models; a new study suggests these models underestimate the actual values of AR frequency, intensity, and precipitation by up to 40%. Despite this, high- and low-resolution models agree that ARs will become around 30% more frequent, 40% more intense, and 30% rainier under climate change.

An Ultra-Fine Resolution Numerical Investigation of the Influence of Terrain on Tornado Behavior
Monthly Weather Review

Interacting with terrain may widen and strengthen tornadoes. A novel, very-high-resolution numerical study modeled tornadoes in idealized terrain as well as a digitized version of real terrain. In the idealized terrain, slopes and hills increased the width, intensity, and peak wind speed of simulated tornadoes in ways that varied with the shape and slope of terrain. This was also true in a simulated version of real terrain, but the effects were smaller and more complex.

Association between Political Ideology and Climate Change Risk Perception in Anglo-Saxon Countries: Does Perceived Extreme Weather Experience Matter?
Weather, Climate, and Society

Extreme weather experience can reduce polarization around climate change. Cross-national survey data from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia finds that of the three countries, U.S. residents overall have the lowest and most divided perceptions of climate change risk.  Individuals with right-leaning ideology have a significantly lower risk perception. Perceived extreme weather experience raises risk perception in all three countries and, in the U.S., weakens the role of ideology, especially among the right-leaning public. 

Seasonal & Geographical Patterns of Lightning Incidence in New Mexico
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

New Mexico’s most dangerous areas for lightning. 22 years of data from the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network suggest that New Mexico counties near the Texas border (especially Roosevelt County) have the highest density in the state of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning strikes, which can initiate dangerous wildfires. In addition, there are high rates of CG lightning in forested mountain areas, with the Gila and Lincoln National Forests showing the highest incidence.

Modeling the Impact of Rural-Urban Migration on Carbon Intensity: An environmentally constrained dual urban-rural DSGE approach
Weather, Climate, and Society

Rural-urban migration and wage fairness appear to reduce carbon emissions in China. A modeling study suggests that Chinese policies encouraging rural-to-urban migration reduce overall carbon emissions (emissions increase in cities, but this is outweighed by a reduction in rural areas) and increase economic growth; however, this effect is dampened when rural-to-urban migrants experience wage discrimination. Following periods of increased migration, a gradual rollback of policies incentivizing rural-urban migration also appears to reduce emissions and enhance growth.

Land-Atmosphere Interaction Responses of Burn Scar Heat Islands: A Case Study of the 2018 Camp Fire
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

The 2018 Camp Fire created “heat islands” in Northern California by altering heat and moisture exchange between the land and atmosphere. Researchers using satellite imagery and numerical models found that subsequent changes in local wind, cloud, and precipitation patterns persist for long periods, especially in areas with complex terrain, highlighting the need for improved post-fire planning.

Uneven Climate Adaptation: Mapping Socio-Institutional Vulnerability across Europe’s Secondary Cities
Weather, Climate, and Society

Mismatch between climate impacts and adaptation capacity means uneven vulnerability for smaller European cities. Combining statistics from many sectors across 30 medium-sized cities in Central and Southern Europe finds that Central European cities tend to have more institutional capacity to adapt to climate change, even though they exhibit deeper social inequalities. In Southern European cities, citizens are frequently more civically engaged but administrative capacity and financial resources for climate adaptation are limited.

Warming and Wetting Induced by Urbanization and Anthropogenic Heat over a Fast-Developing Large River Delta
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Rapid urbanization is causing hotter, wetter summers for city dwellers in China’s Pearl River Delta. The Pearl River Delta is one of the world’s most rapidly urbanizing areas. A simulation study suggests that the conversion of vegetated land to impervious surface is driving observed increases in summer air temperature and rainfall. This is intensified by increased heat generated by buildings, vehicles, and people.

When Climate Justice Frame Backfires in China: Personal Norms as a Key Moderator
Weather, Climate, and Society

Climate justice framing fails to encourage public engagement in China. An online survey of 242 people in China found that framing issues in terms of climate justice encouraged those with existing personal intentions to act on climate, and discouraged those without them, with a negative effect on participants’ support for climate policies and intentions for pro-environment behavior. The researchers suggest this may be due to a framing of climate change as others’ responsibility (e.g., Western nations and elites) and a cultural environment encouraging institutional rather than individual action.

Mapping Synchronous Heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere: Insights from Climate Network Analysis
Journal of Climate

Areas continents apart are prone to sync up on extreme heatwaves. Simultaneous extreme heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe in the Northern Hemisphere. This study maps out the areas most prone to having extreme heat at the same time. Southeast Asia and western North America tend to synchronize with the Caspian Sea, while East Asia and southern North America often synchronize with north-central Europe.

You can view all research published in AMS Journals at journals.ametsoc.org.

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About the American Meteorological Society

The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society. Founded in 1919, AMS has a membership of around 12,000 professionals, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes 12 atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic science journals; hosts more than 12 conferences annually; and offers numerous programs and services. Visit us at www.ametsoc.org/.

About AMS Journals

The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Some AMS journals are open access. Media login credentials are available for subscription journals. Journals include the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Weather, Climate, and Society, the Journal of Climate, and Monthly Weather Review.

Study: A Fire Tornado Could be Used to Clean Up Oil Spills

ANOTHER REALLY DUMB IDEA

Courtesy Texas A&M

Published Feb 16, 2026 10:29 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

When the worst large-scale oil spills happen, responders turn to methods that have tradeoffs. Dispersants make the visual problem go away, causing the slick to break up and disappear into the water column before reaching shore, but have environmental effects. Burn-offs - intentional or accidental - reduce the volume of concentrated oil pools on water, but they also generate toxic smoke. A new study by a team at Texas A&M suggests that oil burn-offs can be carried out far more efficiently if the burning pool is subjected to a vortex of swirling air, known to wildland firefighters as a "fire whirl" or "fire tornado."

For first responders in wildland firefighting, the fire whirl evokes risk: the burning tornadoes can increase spread rate in a forest fire or move erratically, potentially overrunning fire teams. But that extra intensity might also be an asset, if it could be harnessed. A team led by by Dr. Elaine Oran and Dr. Qingsheng Wang of Texas A&M and Dr. Michael Gollner of UC Berkeley set out to determine whether a fire whirl could do a better job at burning off crude oil, and they found success. 

The team set up a test apparatus at a firefighting experiment lab to see how a fire whirl would work over water. They arranged a set of three walls in a triangular formation around their test-scale oil fire, thereby inducing circular air movement - a vortex - as air flowed through the gaps between the walls and into the interior chamber. It worked, and they got a clean-burning pillar of flame. 

According to their results, the whirl burned off 95 percent of the oil in the trial pool, and it produced 40 percent less soot in the process. In a cleanup scenario, this would mean far less toxic mess left behind. Best of all, it does its work in half the time of a normal burn-off fire. In spill-response, speed is everything, as the goal is to slow the spread of the slick.

“This the first time anyone has conceived using fire whirls for oil spill remediation, and it’s really just the beginning,” said Dr. Oran, who is an aerospace engineer. “Our goal is to harness the chaotic nature of fire whirls as a powerful, precise restoration tool."

There are limits, though. In deeper pools of fuel, the fire caused the underlying water to boil, resulting in water vapor that extinguished the fire early, the team found. The impact of high or gusty wind conditions was not assessed, so for now, the findings have more relevance for calm conditions. And as a practical matter, the mechanics of inducing a vortex and creating a fire whirl on the water are not yet clear.

"The experimental setup, involving three walls to generate fire whirls, is not directly applicable to open ocean environments where large oil spills typically occur. Future research should explore applicable methods for inducing fire whirls in open water conditions, possibly through the use of mobile or deployable structures, or by leveraging natural atmospheric conditions fitting for fire whirl formation," the team concluded.

SMOKERS’ CORNER: 

MIRACLES AND MATERIALITY

Nadeem F. Paracha 

Published February 1, 2026 

EOS/DAWN
Illustration by Abro

A recent video showing a Quran that survived the devastating fire at Karachi’s Gul Plaza has reignited a centuries-old conversation. Throughout history, accounts of Bibles, Qurans or Buddhist sutras emerging unscathed from catastrophic floods and fires have been celebrated as Divine interventions. While these events offer profound spiritual solace, a closer look reveals a fascinating intersection of material physics and psychological bias.

From a physical standpoint, Dougal Drysdale, Professor Emeritus at the University of Edinburgh, suggests that a hardbound book’s survival is often due to the ‘Closed Book Effect.’ When shut, a book functions as a dense, oxygen-starved block of cellulose. Because fire requires a steady flow of oxygen to consume fuel, the tightly packed pages resist ignition by preventing airflow from reaching the interior.

In the event of a flood, the surface tension of water against tightly pressed pages creates a natural barrier. This prevents deep seepage for a significant period, often leaving the heart of the book perfectly dry.

American psychologist Thomas Gilovich explains that when a sacred text survives a disaster, it often becomes more than just a book. It is elevated to a sacred relic. This transformation, according to Gilovich, can significantly redefine a community’s cultural path. In the aftermath of the 2011 Joplin tornado in Missouri, US, survivors and news outlets frequently highlighted the ‘miraculous’ discovery of intact Bibles among the rubble of flattened homes.



The survival of holy texts in the aftermath of natural catastrophes is often termed ‘Divine protection’, revealing the cultural and spiritual narratives people love to attach to such instances

While hardbound dictionaries and cookbooks likely survived in the same ruins due to their similar physical construction, these secular items were ignored by the media as mere debris. The surviving Bibles were immediately elevated from functional reading material to sacred relics, often being framed and displayed as symbols of Divine protection.

By focusing on these specific books, the media triggered a cognitive bias that led people to view the event through a supernatural lens rather than recognising the simple physical durability of bound paper.

British scholar Susan Whitfield, in her 2004 work The Silk Road: Trade, Travel, War and Faith, details the discovery of the Mogao Caves in China. In that instance, the sealing of the Buddhist text the Diamond Sutra (868 CE) within a dry, walled-up chamber created a “natural vault” that protected the world’s oldest-dated printed book from the degrading effects of humidity and oxygen for nearly a millennium. The perception of such objects often shifts from the literary to the ‘miraculous’.

During World War I, pocket Bibles carried by soldiers occasionally stopped shrapnel due to the high density of their compressed paper. This led many soldiers to treat the Bibles as protective talismans.

The Codex Amiatinus, frequently referred to as the ‘Grandfather’ of Latin Bibles, has survived for over 1,300 years due to its immense physical durability. According to Drysdale, this enormous volume, created around 700 CE in Northumbria, England, weighs over 34 kilogrammes and was crafted from the skins of more than 500 calves.

The use of high-quality parchment makes the Bible significantly more resistant to fire and decay, as organic animal skins lack the highly flammable, oxygen-trapping fibres found in wood-pulp paper. This Bible remained virtually untouched for a millennium, preserved by the stable environment of an Italian abbey that served as a ‘natural vault.’

In West Africa, the Desert Manuscripts of Timbuktu offer a compelling example of texts surviving environmental factors, a story often framed as miraculous. When Islamist militants set fire to the Ahmed Baba Institute in 2013, there was widespread global concern over the potential loss of thousands of ancient Islamic manuscripts. However, according to the researcher Mauro Nobili, the extreme aridity of the Sahara desert was critical in aiding their preservation for centuries.

The persistently low humidity prevented mould growth and kept the delicate ink stable, allowing for their long-term survival, which many viewed as a modern miracle. However, the more vulnerable manuscripts were secretly shifted to safer locations before the militants set fire to the Ahmed Baba Institute.



During the Viking raid on Lindisfarne — a tidal island off the northeast coast of England — in 793 CE, a legend emerged concerning a sacred book, Lindisfarne Gospels, which was said to have been dropped into the sea by fleeing priests. Three days later, it washed up perfectly dry. While this specific account is often considered apocryphal, the physical survival of such ancient texts is frequently due to their durable leather and metal bindings, which act as a protective shell for the internal vellum.

Gilovich would point to stories such as this ‘dry’ recovery of a Bible as prime examples of how the media and oral tradition prioritise miraculous narratives over the mundane reality of material science, thereby reinforcing spiritual beliefs.

According to the prominent professor of psychological sciences J. Park, communities frequently transform these survival stories into powerful symbols of “Divine protection” as a means of processing the profound trauma of disasters. This phenomenon ultimately highlights a dynamic intersection, where material science meets deep human sentiment.

While the inherent fire-resistant properties of vellum offer logical, scientific explanations for the physical survival of many books, the human psychological element remains paramount. The inherent human need to find order, meaning and hope within chaos is what elevates these surviving sacred objects from mere material items to vital spiritual anchors for a community’s recovery and continuity.

The endurance of these texts represents a profound intersection between material science and human psychology. It is not merely the density of vellum, the chemical stability of ancient inks or the aridity of a desert that ensures survival. Rather, it is the way these physical realities interact with our inherent drive to find order in the wake of destruction.

Gilovich’s research posits that when a community witnesses the survival of a sacred text, they are not simply observing a quirk of physics. They are engaging in what Park describes as “meaning-making”, using the survived sacred object to process trauma and reclaim a sense of ‘Divine protection.’ Whether through the preservation of the Diamond Sutra in caves, or a Bible or a Quran found amidst the ruins of a modern disaster, these serve as a bridge between the tangible and the transcendent. Their survival is a testament to the fact that, while fire and time may consume the material, the cultural and spiritual narratives we attach to them remain indestructible.

Yet, it is equally important that we recognise the physical realities of their endurance, acknowledging that the science of material durability does not diminish the ‘miracle’, but rather provides a rational foundation for understanding how the written word survives the very elements meant to destroy it.

Published in Dawn, EOS, February 1st, 2026

Nadeem F. Paracha is a researcher and senior columnist for Dawn Newspaper and Dawn.com. He is also the author of ten books on the social and political history of Pakistan.

He tweets @NadeemfParacha

Survivors Slam Kristi Noem Over FEMA’s Response to Deadly Disasters


FEMA workers say the agency is being gutted under Trump, putting disaster victims at risk.

By Mike Ludwig ,

Truthout

December 16, 2025

Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem answers questions from members of congress during the House Committee on Homeland Security on December 11, 2025, in Washington, D.C.Marvin Joseph / The Washington Post via Getty Images

Independent journalism at Truthout faces unprecedented authoritarian censorship. If you value progressive media, please make a year-end donation today.

Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem is under fire from disaster survivors for mismanaging the federal government’s response to recent storms, floods, and deadly wildfires as staffing cuts and controversial policy changes continue to cause chaos at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

Disaster survivors from 10 states and Puerto Rico gathered Monday on Capitol Hill for an emotional press conference to demand accountability from Noem for “systemic failures” at Noem’s department, which oversees FEMA. The survivors said communication shortfalls and mismanagement of emergency relief funds that in some cases caused months-long delays left officials and residents on the ground frustrated and confused after disaster struck.

Among the attendees were survivors of the devastating floods in central Texas, which claimed more than 130 lives in July. The survivors demanded a meeting with Noem and a personal visit from her to the flood-ravaged communities. They also are calling for a congressional hearing on the government’s response to the disaster.

“When FEMA cannot fully function, real people pay the price, and what happened in Sandy Creek cannot be allowed to happen again.”

“When FEMA cannot fully function, real people pay the price, and what happened in Sandy Creek cannot be allowed to happen again,” said Brandy Gerstner, who survived flash floods with her family in Leander, Texas.

The activism from the disaster survivors comes as President Donald Trump’s administration continues to bring controversy to FEMA. Earlier this month, the Trump administration installed an election denier and conspiracy theorist with no official government disaster response experience as a top administrator at FEMA. Gregg Phillips, a human resource official for the Texas state government, reportedly only has experience responding to disasters with religious groups and nonprofits. In one social media post, Phillips described himself as a “very vocal opponent of FEMA.”

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“The danger posed to our collective communities … is very real,” said one employee who signed a public letter. By Sasha Abramsky , Truthout  August 30, 2025

Rafael Lemaitre, a former FEMA public affairs director and member of the advisory council to Sabotaging Our Safety, a FEMA watchdog group, said the hiring of Phillips to manage FEMA’s Office of Response and Recovery is part of a larger pattern of dismantling FEMA piece by piece.

“The only thing Gregg Phillips seems qualified for is running the Flat Earth Society — yet Trump put him in charge of saving American lives,” Lemaitre told Truthout in an email. “This clearly isn’t about keeping Americans safe when disaster strikes.”

Then, on December 12, officials abruptly canceled a much-anticipated meeting of a FEMA review council after significant changes made by Noem’s office to a report recommending sweeping cuts to FEMA leaked to the media. The three officials, who spoke to the Associated Press on condition of anonymity to discuss the issue with the media, said the report shrunk from over 160 pages to roughly 20.

Created by a policy “review council” created by Trump, the draft report recommends a dramatic overhaul and downsizing of FEMA, including a 50 percent reduction in staff. Noem’s office reportedly made significant cuts to the review council’s draft and rejected some of the recommendations. The report is now undergoing additional internal vetting and has not been released publicly, according to The Washington Post.

CNN first reported on the leaked policy recommendations, which include changing the name of the agency to “FEMA 2.0” at least temporarily.

“It is time to close the chapter on FEMA,” the draft report states. “A new agency should be established that retains the core missions of FEMA, while highlighting the renewed emphasis on locally executed, state or tribally managed, and federally supported emergency management.”

Such an overhaul at FEMA would leave cities and states shouldering the costs of disaster preparation, response, and recovery — costs most states cannot afford — and put disaster victims at risk of serious harm, especially those with fewer financial resources, according to Shana Udvardy, a senior climate resilience policy analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists.

“That means the next time a hurricane or horrific wildfires materialize we may again experience a disturbing FEMA fiasco on par with Hurricane Katrina, as FEMA staff warned about in their recent petition to Congress,” Udvardy said in a statement on December 12.

Udvardy was referring to The FEMA Katrina Declaration, a petition against the Trump administration’s FEMA overhaul organized by current and former FEMA workers. The petition states that key Trump appointees running FEMA have little experience in emergency management, and points to Hurricane Katrina as a warning. FEMA’s infamous failure to assist stranded Black residents of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina devastated the city in 2005 left a racist stain on the administration of President George W. Bush, which helped pave the way for the election of President Barack Obama in 2008.

Fast forward 20 years, and communities in central Texas are still recovering from deadly flash floods unleashed by storms over the summer. Abby McIlraith, an emergency management specialist at FEMA, said she joined colleagues and signed the Katrina Declaration to call out the Trump administration for harming disaster survivors after the floods claimed dozens of lives in Kerrville, Texas. A day after the petition was published, McIlraith and other whistleblowers were placed on leave.

“Secretary Noem took only 36 hours to illegally retaliate against us as whistleblowers, but 72 hours — twice as long — to send search and rescue to Kerrville,” McIlraith told reporters on December 15. “Her insistence on personally approving major FEMA expenses, combined with these retaliatory actions, left disaster survivors waiting for help when hours and days mattered most.”

Gerstner said her family in Leander felt abandoned by FEMA and local authorities after flash floods destroyed the life they built over the past 36 years, including three homes, a business, and their sense of safety. The flood is fading from the local headlines, but Gerstner said the community is still struggling with recovery months later.


“We lost neighbors, were stranded for days without help, and watched as FEMA response was delayed while families were left to survive on their own.”

“We lost neighbors, were stranded for days without help, and watched as FEMA response was delayed while families were left to survive on their own,” Gerstner said. “More than five months later, many are still homeless, and only 36 percent of FEMA claims in our area have been approved.”

Victims of a federally recognized disaster can file claims with FEMA for financial assistance to cover the cost of emergency repairs, transportation, and hotel rooms when homes are destroyed, for example. It’s a notoriously slow and byzantine process disaster victims have complained about for years. Federal emergency funds only become available to states and local communities after the president issues an official disaster declaration, often in response to a request from a state governor and a recommendation from FEMA.

Since taking office, Trump has made it clear that he wants to shift the financial burden of disaster relief from the federal government to the states and has suggested phasing out FEMA altogether, a position Noem echoed in interviews. Dismantling FEMA entirely would require an act of Congress, but the Trump administration did not wait on lawmakers to slash staff and budgets at the agency while shifting DHS resources toward Trump’s mass deportation campaign.

Advocates and disaster survivors say emergency relief for communities impacted by fires, hurricanes, tornadoes, and other disasters has been delayed for months at a time as a result of the Trump administration’s assault on FEMA.

For example, FEMA announced on December 12 it would send $350 million to local governments and electric utilities in Georgia for relief efforts after Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Debby, which both hit in 2024. The payment comes two months after Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Georgia) released a report showing that nearly $500 million in Hurricane Helene disaster relief was unpaid, according to the Associated Press.

“Hurricanes and natural disasters are not political; they do not care if you voted red or blue, and Georgia counties and cities went right to work recovering from Helene’s destruction with the understanding the federal government would fulfill its promises and pay their share,” Warnock said in a statement. “It should not have gotten to this point.”

Dr. Michael McLemore, a local organizer with community and racial justice groups in St. Louis, Missouri, survived a violent tornado that devastated residential areas and claimed at least five lives on May 16. McLemore said he lost the roof of his house and witnessed “our community’s systems fail at every level.” Trump did not declare the tornado a federal disaster until June 10, which delayed FEMA’s response.

“Sirens didn’t sound, local officials delayed response, and FEMA, under Secretary Kristi Noem, was nearly a month late in declaring a major disaster — leaving seniors and residents without transportation to fend for themselves,” McLemore said.

Like other disaster survivors, McLemore supports the 2025 FEMA Act, a bipartisan bill that would make FEMA an independent, cabinet-level agency and make major reforms to streamline the process for providing disaster relief. Introduced in the House by leaders of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee from both parties, the bill has 40 bipartisan co-sponsors but remains in committee as the House Republican majority struggles to pass even basic legislation.

“Disasters don’t discriminate, but disaster recovery does,” McLemore said.

 

AMS Science Preview: Railways and cyclones; pinned clouds; weather warnings in wartime

Early online research from journals of the American Meteorological Society

American Meteorological Society

FacebookXLinkedInWeChatBlueskyMessageWhatsAppEmail

The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Many of these articles are available for early online access–they are peer-reviewed, but not yet in their final published form. Below are some recent examples of online and early-online research.

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JOURNAL ARTICLES

Remote Effects of Urbanization on Temperatures in Adjacent Cities: A Case Study in Utah
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Adjacent urban areas appear to exacerbate each other’s heat island effects. A modeling study of greater Salt Lake City (SLC) and the smaller Utah cities of Ogden and Provo suggests that SLC may raise the temperature in neighboring urban areas by up to 1°C. The smaller cities also amplify heat effects in SLC.

The Critical Need for Hindcast Infrastructure in Climate Science and Sectoral Applications
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

U.S. hindcasting infrastructure is “fragile and underfunded” compared with Europe. Re-running an old forecast with a new component added (hindcasting) allows researchers to correct errors and test how much a new technique or technology improves forecasting. Hindcasts are vital to many sectors, yet this paper’s authors find that the forecast archives on which U.S.-specific hindcasts depend are patchy and underfunded.

“The U.S. currently has an underfunded, fragile hindcast archive infrastructure upon which a tremendous amount of investment and decision support depends. It is critical that our hindcast archive infrastructure be brought into the 21st century.”

Monitoring Microscale Heat Stress Patterns in a Medium-Dense Urban Area with Green Spaces
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Trees beat buildings for urban shade. This study finds that consumer-grade portable measurement devices can provide useful assessments of wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT, a heat stress measure) across urban “microenvironments.” Using these observations, the authors found that buildings either increased or decreased urban WBGT depending on the side of the building measured; tree shade decreased WBGT by 3.5 °C., making trees more reliable against heat stress. At night, unpaved surfaces reduce heat stress by 0.8 °C WBGT.

Assessing Tropical Cyclone Risks to China’s High-Speed Rail Network
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

China’s high-speed rail network is vulnerable to tropical cyclones. 42.7% of the China Railway High-speed (CRH) network is exposed to areas with elevated tropical cyclone risk, and 26 of the 30 busiest CRH lines face elevated risks across multiple sections of their routes, the authors find. The Beijing–Shanghai line, the busiest in the network, exhibits risk exposure across 99.8% of its total length, underscoring the need to improve resilience and warning systems.

Pinned Clouds over Industrial Sources of Heat during TRACER
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Industrial facilities create “pinned clouds.” Stereo cameras in a research campaign monitoring aerosols and convection in Houston, Texas, show that around dawn, seemingly stationary plumes of cloud often appear over gas-fired power plant facilities. These “pinned” clouds are not steam emanating from industrial chimneys but rather the result of air rising after being warmed over industrial heating sources. They can stay in the same place for over an hour.

What are the Costs of Heat Spell Mortality in Europe's Urban Areas up to 2050?
Weather, Climate, and Society

Heat waves, pollution interact to drive up cardiopulmonary deaths. Heat-related cardiopulmonary disease (CPD) deaths could triple by mid-century in Europe and Asia minor, costing €90 billion annually in welfare economic costs. The study also finds a strong link between air pollution and heat-related CPD deaths, suggesting that combating air pollution could prevent up to 190,000 heat-related deaths by 2050.

Weathering Conflict: Impacts and Solutions for Protecting Hydrometeorological Infrastructure during Armed Conflict
Weather, Climate, and Society

Armed conflict compromises forecasts and disaster warnings. Damage to weather observing stations and similar infrastructure by armed groups exacerbates disaster risk in conflict zones, according to an analysis of weather and water data combined with conflict reports and expert interviews. The authors found that “conflict limits the collection, protection, and storage of hydrometeorological observations, which are crucial for producing weather forecasts and warnings [and that] hydrometeorological infrastructure has been directly destroyed and damaged by armed groups.”

Characterizing the Relation between Lightning and Wildfires in the Western United States
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Fire-igniting lightning strikes are flashier. Lighting flashes that ignite wildfires are “larger and 3–4 times brighter” than average strikes, and tend to come from weaker, drier storms, according to a study of U.S. western wildfires using data from the National Lightning Detection Network, Geostationary Lightning Mapper, and radar. The study also finds that 11% of ignition-causing flashes have been misclassified as intra-cloud strikes.

Amplified Global Seasonality in Water Availability over Land in Recent Decades
Journal of Climate

Dry seasons getting drier with global warming. Using data from 2000 to 2020, the authors find that the range of seasonal water availability has increased significantly worldwide, primarily driven by water availability minimums sinking lower (with ever-higher levels of evaporation compared with precipitation). According to the authors, this "underscores the growing imbalance in global seasonal water availability with climate warming."

Convective Mode Classification and Distribution of Contiguous United States Tornado Events from 2003–2023
Weather and Forecasting

Tornado weather changes. Analysis of 2003–23 data reveals different distributions for two tornado-producing weather types. Supercell thunderstorms that produce tornadoes were more frequent over a wider area of the U.S., but declined in frequency over the study period. Quasi-linear convective systems (QLCS) that produce tornadoes were concentrated further to the East; QLCS tornado frequency increased over the measured period, though these tornadoes tended to be weaker.

You can view all research published in AMS Journals at journals.ametsoc.org.

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About the American Meteorological Society

The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society. Founded in 1919, AMS has a membership of around 12,000 professionals, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes 12 atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic science journals; hosts more than 12 conferences annually; and offers numerous programs and services. Visit us at www.ametsoc.org/.

About AMS Journals

The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Some AMS journals are open access. Media login credentials are available for subscription journals. Journals include the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Weather, Climate, and Society, the Journal of Climate, and Monthly Weather Review.

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Journal

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology