AMS Science Preview: Turbulence & thunderstorms, heat stress, future derechos

Early online research from journals of the American Meteorological Society

American Meteorological Society

The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Many of these articles are available for early online access–they are peer-reviewed, but not yet in their final published form.

Below is a selection of articles published early online recently. Some articles are open-access; to view others, members of the media can contact kpflaumer@ametsoc.org for press login credentials.

---

JOURNAL ARTICLES

A New Heat Stress Index For Climate Change Assessment
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Heat Index may dramatically underestimate heat stress in extreme temperatures. This work compares the Heat Index (HI), developed to measure heat stress on the human body, to a recently developed Extended Heat Index (EHI) that aims to function better for the kind of extreme humid heat that is becoming more common with climate change. The study finds that during extreme heat waves, “the original [Heat Index] can underestimate heat stress by a considerable amount” (5-10°C) compared to the EHI.

Lengthening Atlantic Hurricane Seasons with Earlier Storm Formation Dates Including Implications from 2020
Journal of Climate

Atlantic hurricane season is lengthening. A statistical analysis of Atlantic hurricane seasons indicates a statistically significant lengthening trend since the 1970s. This is primarily due to more storms forming earlier in the year. “Since the early 1970s, dates for the earliest storms have trended earlier, the last storm’s dissipation dates later, and seasons correspondingly longer,” the authors write.

Spatial Patterns of Turbulence near Thunderstorms
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Thunderstorms cause flight turbulence up to 100 km away. A new study examining radar data and airline reports finds that turbulence risk is up to five times higher than normal within 32 km of a radar-identified storm at flight altitude, and twice as high 70 km away. Elevated risk was found up to 100 km away from a storm. In addition, when flying over a storm, turbulence risk was up to 20 times higher than normal, and never completely dissipated at any height.

Future Derecho Potential in the United States
Journal of Climate

Derechos to increase, intensify in central, eastern U.S. under future climate. Derechos, and other windstorms driven by thunderstorm systems, are due to increase according to the authors’ high-resolution climate simulations. With both intermediate and pessimistic future greenhouse gas concentrations, models suggest increased frequency, intensity, and geographic spread of MCS-driven windstorms across the central and eastern contiguous United States.

Changes in Extreme Daily Precipitation over the Contiguous United States from Convection-Permitting Simulations
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Precipitation extremes to shift across continental U.S. cities, model suggests. A model shown to “admirably” model historical precipitation extremes (the highest 1% of daily rainfall events) found statistically significant increases in these events during winter and spring across the Midwest and Ohio Valley, and decreases in such events during the winter for the southern Great Plains by the end of the century. The authors also found increasing variability in extremes across several U.S. cities, including Seattle, Phoenix, and Minneapolis.

Delayed Impact of Biomass Burning in the Indochinese Peninsula on the Bay of Bengal Monsoon
Journal of Climate

Biomass burning on the Indochinese Peninsula may delay monsoon onset in the Bay of Bengal. A modeling study suggests that aerosols from fires on the Indochinese Peninsula can reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the ocean’s surface, creating a cooler area that suppresses convection and certain atmospheric flows. According to the model, this could lead to a delayed monsoon onset in the Bay of Bengal.

The Efficacy of Red Flag Warnings in Mitigating Human-Caused Wildfires across the Western United States
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Red flag warnings have limited usefulness for reducing human-caused wildfire ignitions. National Weather Service red flag warnings (RFWs) denote weather conditions conducive to extreme wildfires. Examining data from the Western United States, the authors found some evidence to support the idea that fewer people engaged in activities like debris burning on red flag days, while the warnings had no impact on habitual behaviors like smoking, or the incidence of fires caused by infrastructure issues (e.g., power lines).

Burn Period: A use-inspired metric to track wildfire risk across Arizona and New Mexico in the southwest U.S.
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

“Burn period” tracks time windows for wildfire-inducing conditions. A new tool, the Burn Period Tracker, formalizes a term used by wildland fire managers. Burn period (the number of hours each day with atmospheric humidity below 20%) tracks well with fire weather conditions in the U.S. Southwest and allows for improved short-term planning around fire risk.

Projected effects of climate change on meteorological droughts over China: A study based on high-resolution NEX-GDDP data
Journal of Hydrometeorology

Droughts to increase in China under future climate scenarios. The authors’ analysis suggests that moderate and extreme droughts are projected to increase across China under moderate (RCP4.5) and worst-case (RCP8.5) atmospheric greenhouse gas scenarios, respectively.

You can view all research published in AMS Journals at journals.ametsoc.org.

---

AMS BLOG

Tornado damage risk is increasing across the U.S. (even where tornadoes aren’t); peer pressure presents campus tornado safety issues; and bilingual weather warnings are a lifeline for Spanish-speakers. The 31st Conference on Severe Local Storms took place October 20-25, 2024, and the first session dealt with societal risks and perceptions of severe storms. Read about some of the takeaways on the AMS Front Page Blog, including how weather warnings are evolving.

---

About the American Meteorological Society

The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society. Founded in 1919, AMS has a membership of around 12,000 professionals, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes 12 atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic science journals; hosts more than 12 conferences annually; and offers numerous programs and services. Visit us at www.ametsoc.org/.

About AMS Journals

The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Some AMS journals are open access. Media login credentials are available for subscription journals. Journals include the Bulletin of the American Meteorolocial Society, Weather, Climate, and Society, the Journal of Climate, and Monthly Weather Review.

---

Journal

Journal of Climate

How Climate Change Threatens Workers

Worker risk is also a function of workers’ power in the workplace — or lack thereof. Where they work, the conditions they work under and their ability to protect themselves against obvious threats make workers more vulnerable than average citizens.

By Jordan Barab

October 12, 2024

Source: Portside



At least six workers in a Tennessee plastics factory are dead or missing after managers allegedly told them not to evacuate despite urgent warnings of severe flash flooding. What does this tragedy say about the unique threat that workers face from climate change and related adverse weather events?

Climate change is not a hoax, as some politicians continue to argue. It is very real as we witnessed most recently the past several days as a climate change-fueled hurricane wreaked havoc and death from Floridaas far north as eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina. Hundreds are confirmed dead and many more are still missing.

Hurricanes, floods, heat, fires and other severe weather phenomena have the potential of hitting everyone. Some — who may live on the coast or in a fire-prone areas — may be more at risk than city-dwellers, but Hurricane Helene has shown us that few locations are immune, even for people who thought they were protected because they lived in an inland city like Asheville or up in the mountains far from the hurricane-prone coasts.

While anyone can be at risk from adverse weather events, workers bear an added element of risk because of the jobs they do and their lack of control in their workplaces. Must attention has been paid over the past few years to the growing number of worker illnesses and deaths from heat exposure — and the federal government as well as a growing number of cities and states are slowly taking action to protect workers. (At the same time, some states — like Texas and Florida — are heading the other direction — making it more difficult for localities to protect workers from the effects of high heat.) Many of the jobs most at risk, for example agriculture and construction, have large numbers of immigrant workers who may not feel protected complaining to OSHA or other authorities about unsafe working conditions

But the threat to workers is not just from the elements. It’s not just from Mother Nature, however climate-altered she has become. Worker risk is also a function of workers’ power in the workplace — or lack thereof. Where they work, the conditions they work under and their ability to protect themselves against obvious threats make workers more vulnerable than average citizens to the risks posed by climate change.


The threat to workers is not just from the elements. It’s not just from Mother Nature, however climate-altered she has become. Worker risk is also a function of workers’ power in the workplace — or lack thereof. Where they work, the conditions they work under and their ability to protect themselves against obvious threats make workers more vulnerable than average citizens to the risks posed by climate change.

Most people, when they receive hurricane or flood warning, have the option of evacuating from their homes and heading to a safer location. Facing high heat, most people have the ability to live and work in air-conditioned homes and offices, or retreat into air-conditioned shops or cars during a severe heat wave. Even the effects of wildfire smoke can be minimized by staying in a climate-controlled dwelling.

But workers often are not in control of their working conditions or safety. If workers who labor outdoors are not allowed to take rest breaks in the shade without being threatened with discipline, if they don’t have access to water during a heat wave without being or if can’t protect themselves from toxic wildfire smoke without risking their jobs, or if they’re not allowed leave work in the face of and approaching tornado or floods without fear of being fired — what we’re seeing is basic job blackmail: your job or your life.

And these are not just theoretical risk, as we’re now seeing down in Tennessee.
Impact Plastics

This problem for workers was no better illustrated than what we’re learning from the tragedy at Impact Plastics in Erwin, Tennessee, where at least six workers were swept away by the flooded Nolichucky Rive. Three workers died: Rosa Andrade,
Liliana Verdugo, Monica Hernández and Bertha Mendoza. Three remain missing. Many of the workers at the plant are Hispanic.

At least one survivor and families of the missing workers say they were not allowed to evacuate despite increasing urgent warnings. Given the known path of the Hurricane, workers are wondering why they were even forced to come to work that day.

Impact Plastics is denying the allegations, claimed that workers were allowed to leave on time, and their jobs weren’t threatened if they left. “When water began to cover the parking lot and the adjacent service road, and the plant lost power, employees were dismissed by management to return to their homes in time for them to escape the industrial park. At no time were employees told that they would be fired if they left the facility.”

The company claims that they allowed employees to leave when water began covering the parking lot, but “While most employees left immediately, some remained on or near the premises for unknown reasons. ”

But Impact workers tell a different story.

Robert Jarvis, a worker at the plant, reported that his bosses were hesitant to let employees leave the premises until it was too late.

“We were all working, and the power went out, and I got a text right when the power went out from another employee saying that the parking lot was flooded. I started walking out towards the break room — that’s where you walk out at to the parking lot — and I seen the parking lot flooded,” Jarvis recalled. “And I was like, ‘what do I do?’ And they told me to move my car. So I went to go move my car to higher ground, which it was still in water, there was no dry ground in that parking lot, I got out, I said ‘Can we leave?’ And the woman said ‘no, not until I speak with Gerry [Impact Plastics founder Gerald O’Connor].”

“About 10 minutes later she came back and said ‘y’all can leave.’ It was too late,” Jarvis continued. “We had one way in, one way out, and when they told us we could leave, the one way out was blocked off. So we were stuck in traffic blocked on that road waiting to see what we were gonna do. Because everyone knew it was one way.”

Another worker described how the company ignored the imminent threat until it was too late:

Jacob Ingram, a mold changer at the company, told the Knoxville News Sentinel that as the flooding started, managers instructed employees to move their cars away from the rising water – but would not let them leave. “They should’ve evacuated when we got the flash flood warnings, and when they saw the parking lot,” he said to the newspaper. “When we moved our cars, we should’ve evacuated then … we asked them if we should evacuate, and they told us not yet, it wasn’t bad enough.

“And by the time it was bad enough, it was too late – unless you had a four-wheel drive.”

Ingram told the Knoxville News Sentinel that he and 10 other employees later tried to leave by taking refuge on an open-bed truck. Debris hit the truck, made two people fall into the water and eventually caused the truck to flip.
Weak Legal Protections

The Occupational Safety and Health Act, passed in 1970, was supposed to eliminate job blackmail. Employers were given full responsibility for maintaining a safe workplace and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration was created to enforce the law and the standards that OSHA established. No longer would workers be forced to choose between their jobs and their lives.

But the promise of OSHA was never fully realized. The agency has been chronically underfunded, new standards can take decades to issue, workers who are not represented by unions have trouble exercising their rights under the law — especially the right to refuse imminently dangerous work — and the political power of the business community and the Republican party have obstructed efforts to address these problems.

The impact of climate change and severe weather events on workers has been especially difficult for OSHA to address. The agency is working on a heat standard which was launched early in the Biden administration. But it will likely take close to two years before that standard is finalized — and only if Kamala Harris wins the presidency. A re-elected President Trump will do the bidding of his business backers and stall the standard indefinitely.

There are no OSHA standard directly addressing the problems faced by the workers at Impact Plastics.

OSHA faced a similar situation in December 2021 when 16 workers were killed when huge tornadoes ripped into the Mayfield Consumer Products plant in western Kentucky and an Amazon warehouse in Edwardsville, Illinois. OSHA investigated the Amazon plant, where six workers died, but the agency declined to cite the company because there was no OSHA standard specifically covering that situation. When there is no specific OSHA standard that covers a hazard, OSHA turns to legally burdensome General Duty Clause — Section 5(a)(1) of the OSHAct — which requires employers to provide a safe workplace. But the General Duty Clause is vulnerable to legal challenge and in the Amazon case, OSHA eventually determined that “no OSHA standard applies and it is not considered appropriate at this time to invoke Section 5(a)(1).”

Instead, the agency sent Amazon a Hazard Alert Letter (HAL) describing three major failures in Amazon’s emergency response program that led to the fatalities. OSHA sends HALs when there is not enough evidence to sustain a General Duty Clause violation. The letter identified risk factors and recommended to the employer “that you voluntarily take the necessary steps to eliminate or materially reduce your employees’ exposure to the risk factors described above.”

Kentucky OSHA took a more aggressive approach, issuing a $40,000 citation against Mayfield Consumer Products. The main standards cited addressed the plant’s failure to secure exit routes or develop emergency action plans and alarms.
What Is To Be Done?

Climate change is here, it is getting worse, and as citizens of Tennessee and western North Carolina who live far from the hurricane-prone coast have learned, no place is safe anymore. Workers have much less control over how to respond to climate emergencies than the general population. Worker safety laws are weak, and there are few adequate OSHA standards covering climate emergencies. OSHA is working on a heat standard, and a standard that would protect emergency responders, but no work has been done to address the hazards that killed the Impact, Amazon or Mayfield workers.

Workers desperately need enhanced protections — OSHA standard or laws, for example that allow workers to leave a workplace or shelter in place in the face of severe weather alerts. Workers and supervisors need to be trained in how to respond to the growing variety of threats facing the world — particularly the world of work.

And employers need to face consequences for threatening workers with their jobs when the seek to protect themselves.

Immigrant rights groups like the Tennessee Immigrant and Refugee Rights Coalition (TIRRC) are working with the Impact workers and providing needed legal support. TIRRC Executive Director Lisa Sherman Luna stated that

From providing multilingual warnings and information before, during, and after instances of severe weather to prioritizing outreach and recovery efforts in under-resourced communities, it’s clear all cities across the state must do more to ensure they are prepared for the next time disaster strikes. And while today we focus on meeting the needs of people displaced by this impact of climate change, we must also call our government to take steps to reverse the course of climate change, from investing in clean energy and common sense measures to protect our environment, so that Tennesseans have the freedom to breathe fresh air, drink clean water, and thrive for generations to come.

The Labor Council for Latin American Advancement (LCLAA) issued a statement, stating in part:

“Any loss of life is a tragedy, but the preventable loss of life, where productivity is prioritized over human safety, is nothing short of disgraceful,” said LCLAA’s National President, Evelyn DeJesus. This tragedy has profoundly hit the growing Latino community in Erwin, Tennessee, especially hard and should serve as a sobering reminder to local officials. Latinos make up 8% of the population here, and they must not be treated as expendable. Distressed families have questioned officials on why they had not been asked for photos or information to help identify their missing loved ones. They have expressed frustration at the lack of support in locating their loved ones, which is simply unacceptable, and we must do better.

Local authorities are responding. Tennessee OSHA is now investigating Impact Plastics, as well the fact that Impact did not notify Tennessee OSHA of the workers’ deaths. The Texas Bureau of Investigation (TBI) has also launched an investigation. The TBI has more authority to pursue criminal charges than OSHA.

But it’s not enough to act after workers have already died. Congress, state legislatures and Federal, state and local authorities need to put a special focus on the unique problems that workers face as a result of climate change-related weather events. It’s already too late for some, but the threat of climate change –and the need to address related workplace issues — will only get more urgent.

Hurricane Milton rips off the roof of MLB’s Tropicana Field, home to the Tampa Bay Rays

Rhian Lubin and Josh Marcus
Thu 10 October 2024 

Hurricane Milton rips off the roof of MLB’s Tropicana Field, home to the Tampa Bay Rays

Hurricane Milton has ripped the roof off the Tropicana Field Stadium, home to the Tampa Bay Rays, dramatic pictures and footage show, the latest sign of damage from a storm that’s killed an estimated 11 people since making landfall.

Winds of over 100 mph battered St. Petersburg, Florida, on Wednesday night as the baseball stadium’s roof, made of Teflon-coated fiberglass, was torn away.

Drone images show debris littered across the field, which was supposed to be a base for 10,000 responders supporting the clean-up effort after the storm passed. The cots and beds for the responders are visible in the pictures.

The stadium’s roof, supported by 180 miles of cables connected by struts, was built to withstand winds of up to 115 miles per hour, according to the team’s media guide.

Storm chaser and journalist Jonathan Petramala filmed the damage on a drone and told CNN the stadium “had no chance.”

Dramatic images show damage to the stadium’s roof after Hurricane Milton struck (Tampa Bay Times/ZUMA Press Wire/)

“It’s surreal to see the roof shredded like that,” he said. “I was able to get my hands on a piece of that roof, it feels like thick vinyl. It had no chance against those winds of Hurricane Milton.”

No one was injured at the facility during the storm, according to the team.

“Our priority is supporting our community and our staff,” the Rays wrote in a statement on X on Thursday. “We are fortunate and grateful that no one was hurt by damage to our ballpark last night.”

Officials had originally planned to use the stadium as a 10,000-person recovery hub “to support ongoing debris operations and post-landfall responders,” but relocated resources to Jacksonville as Milton approached.

The damage comes just as the Rays finished the season at the Tropicana Field last month. Games cannot be played there without a roof due to the field’s lack of drainage system, the Tampa Bay Times reported.

After much back and forth, a new $1.3bn stadium for the team was scheduled to be built in St Petersburg but won’t be ready until 2028 at the earliest, according to Florida’s Business Observer. The team has been trying for almost 20 years to secure a deal for a “desperately needed” new ballpark in the Tampa Bay area, the outlet reported.

It’s unclear if the roof will be fixed by the time the team opens the 2025 season in March.

Debris litters the field of the Tropicana Field stadium (Tampa Bay Times/Zuma/Shutterstock)

The Rays stadium wasn’t the only landmark to sustain damage in the storm.

A construction crane came down in St. Petersburg, crashing through the offices of the Tampa Bay Times newspaper.


Milton made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane Wednesday night near Sarasota County’s Siesta Key, bringing multiple tornadoes, 28ft waves, strong winds, heavy rainfall, and devastating storm surge.

The landfall’s location, about 70 miles south of Tampa, spared the city from unprecedented damage officials warned it could face from a direct hit.

Florida governor Ron DeSantis said on Thursday that Tampa had avoided the “worst-case scenario,” where storm surge was predicted to overwhelm a city that hasn’t been in the eye of a hurricane in more than a century.

Still, an estimated 70 percent of customers with the city’s Tampa Electric utility remained without power as of Thursday afternoon.

The governor added that some areas received up to 18 inches of rain.

“We will better understand the extent of the damage as the day progresses,” DeSantis said. “We’ve got more to do, but we will absolutely get through this.”

Multiple deaths have already been confirmed after dozens of tornadoes spawned in St Lucie County, seeing a tornado strike Spanish Lakes Country Club retirement village in Fort Pierce, county Sheriff Keith Pearson said.

Federal Emergency Management Agency head Deanne Criswell said the worst damage so far came from the tornadoes and praised officials for ordering people to evacuate.

“The evacuation orders saved lives,” she told Reuters.

More than 3.2 million homes and businesses in Florida have been left powerless, with those in the west-central region the worst impacted.

On Thursday morning, officials with the Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office rescued over 135 residents of the Great American Assisted Living Community in Tampa, a home for seniors.

“This is extraordinary to see this type of flooding, especially in this type of area,” Hillsborough County Sheriff Chad Chronister said in a social media video.

“To see this unprecedented flooding, I can only imagine how scary it was,” he added.

Barrier islands on the east coast of Florida took particular damage after Milton came in from the Gulf of Mexico.

On the island of Matlacha, while fire crews battled blazes overnight, residents will also be without water until at least Monday, according to local officials.

After landfall, Milton has weakened to a Category 1 hurricane and is moving off Florida’s east coast – with residents still battling against brutal winds and storm surge.

“I couldn’t touch the bottom, really,” one resident of Clearwater told The New York Times of her family’s escape through a flooded apartment complex. “I was floating. I think it’s the worst thing I’ve experienced in my life.”

The storm may be moving on, but the rescue and recovery effort is only beginning.

Since Milton made landfall, 106 individuals and 18 animals were rescued by the state’s Urban Search and Rescue Teams and the Florida National Guard, according to the Florida Division of Emergency Management.

The state has nearly 300 shelters open, supporting 80,000 residents displaced by the storm, according to the agency.

The state has partnered with Uber to give residents in evacuation zones free rides from shelters back to their homes.

More than 6,500 members of the Florida National Guard have been activated as part of the relief effort.

Hurricane Milton battered the state less than two weeks after the September 27 arrival of Hurricane Helene, which killed at least 20 people in Florida.

A political storm has accompanied the actual hurricanes, with Kamala Harris and Governor DeSantis each accusing the other of politicizing disaster response by claiming their counterpart is more focused on politics than cooperating.

Top Republicans including Donald Trump have latched onto false claims and conspiracy theories about the federal response to Helene, which local officials say is hampering relief efforts on the ground.

President Joe Biden said on Thursday it will take “several billion dollars” to rebuild after Milton.

“This is going to be a long haul for total rebuilding,” he said.

Helene of Florida: ‘Nightmare’ hurricane makes landfall at 225km/h

By Kate Payne and Heather Hollingsworth
Updated September 27, 2024 

Crawfordville, Florida: Hurricane Helene made landfall in north-western Florida as a Category 4 storm as forecasters warned that the enormous system could create a “nightmare” storm surge and bring dangerous winds and rain across much of the southeastern US. There were at least three storm-related deaths.

The National Hurricane Centre in Miami said Helene roared ashore just before midnight on Thursday (Friday afternoon AEST) near the mouth of the Aucilla River in the Big Bend area of Florida’s Gulf Coast. It had maximum sustained winds estimated at 225km/h. That location was only about 32km north-west of where Hurricane Idalia came ashore last year at nearly the same ferocity and caused widespread damage.


Residents wade through a street flooded in the passing of Hurricane Helene, in Batabano, Mayabeque province, Cuba.CREDIT:AP

Helene prompted hurricane and flash flood warnings extending far beyond the coast up into northern Georgia and western North Carolina. More than 1.2 million homes and businesses were without power in Florida, more than 190,000 in Georgia and more than 30,000 in the Carolinas, according to the poweroutage.us tracking site. The governors of those states and Alabama and Virginia all declared emergencies.

One person was killed in Florida when a sign fell on their car and two people were reported killed in a possible tornado in south Georgia as the storm approached.



“When Floridians wake up tomorrow morning, we’re going to be waking up to a state where very likely there’s been additional loss of life and certainly there’s going to be loss of property,” Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said at a news conference.


Hurricane Helene in the Gulf of Mexico moving towards Florida on Thursday.CREDIT:NOAA/AP

Helene was moving rapidly inland after making landfall, with the centre of the storm set to race from southern to northern Georgia next. The risk of tornadoes also would continue overnight and into the morning across north and central Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and southern North Carolina, forecasters said. Later Friday, there would be the risk of tornadoes in Virginia.

“Helene continues to produce catastrophic winds that are now pushing into southern Georgia,” the hurricane centre said in an update. “Persons should not leave their shelters and remain in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions.”

Even before landfall, the storm’s wrath was felt widely, with sustained tropical storm-force winds and hurricane-force gusts along Florida’s west coast. Water lapped over a road in Siesta Key near Sarasota and covered some intersections in St Pete Beach. Lumber and other debris from a fire in Cedar Key a week ago crashed ashore in the rising water.

Advertisement



Beyond Florida, up to 25 centimetres of rain had fallen in the North Carolina mountains, with up to 36cm more possible before the deluge ends, setting the stage for flooding that forecasters warned could be worse than anything seen in the past century.


The St. Pete Pier is pictured among high winds and waves as Hurricane Helene makes its way toward the Florida panhandle, passing west of Tampa Bay.CREDIT:AP

Heavy rains began falling and winds were picking up earlier in Valdosta, Georgia, near the Florida state line. The weather service said more than a dozen Georgia counties could see hurricane-force winds exceeding 177km/h

In south Georgia, two people were killed when a possible tornado struck a mobile home, Wheeler County Sheriff Randy Rigdon told WMAZ-TV.

The storm made landfall in the sparsely populated Big Bend area, home to fishing villages and vacation hideaways where Florida’s Panhandle and peninsula meet.



“Please write your name, birthday, and important information on your arm or leg in a PERMANENT MARKER so that you can be identified and family notified,” the sheriff’s office in mostly rural Taylor County warned those who chose not to evacuate in a Facebook post, the dire advice similar to what other officials have dolled out during past hurricanes.

Still, Philip Tooke, a commercial fisherman who took over the business his father founded near the region’s Apalachee Bay, planned to ride out this storm like he did during Hurricane Michael and the others – on his boat. “If I lose that, I don’t have anything,” Tooke said. Michael, a Category 5 storm, all but destroyed one town, fractured thousands of homes and businesses and caused some $US25 billion in damage when it struck the Florida Panhandle in 2018.


Charles Starling, a lineman with Team Fishel, is pelted with rain as he walks by a row of electrical line trucks stage in a field in The Villages, Florida, in preparation for damage from Hurricane Helene. CREDIT:AP

Many, though, were heeding the mandatory evacuation orders that stretched from the Panhandle south along the Gulf Coast in low-lying areas around Tallahassee, Gainesville, Cedar Key, Lake City, Tampa and Sarasota.

Among them were Cindy Waymon and her husband, who went to a shelter in Tallahassee after securing their home and packing medications, snacks and drinks. They wanted to stay safe given the magnitude of the storm, she said.



“This is the first time we’ve actually come to a shelter, because of the complexities of the storm and the uncertainties,” she said.


A petrol station employee wraps fuel pumps ahead of Hurricane Helene.CREDIT:AP

Federal authorities staged search-and-rescue teams as the weather service forecast storm surges of up to six metres and warned they could be particularly “catastrophic and unsurvivable” in Apalachee Bay.

“Please, please, please take any evacuation orders seriously!” the office said, describing the surge scenario as “a nightmare”.

This stretch of Florida known as the Forgotten Coast has been largely spared by the widespread condo development and commercialisation that dominates so many of Florida’s beach communities. The region is loved for its natural wonders – the vast stretches of salt marshes, tidal pools and barrier islands.



“You live down here, you run the risk of losing everything to a bad storm,” said Anthony Godwin, who lives about 800 metres from the water in the coastal town of Panacea, as he stopped for gas before heading west toward his sister’s house in Pensacola.

RELATED ARTICLE

Extreme weather
‘Climate breakdown’: State of calamity in Portugal as fires rage out of control

School districts and multiple universities ca classes. Airports in Tampa, Tallahassee and Clearwater were closed, while cancellations were widespread elsewhere in Florida and beyond.

While Helene will likely weaken as it moves inland, damaging winds and heavy rain were expected to extend to the southern Appalachian Mountains, where landslides were possible, forecasters said. Tennessee was among the states expected to get drenched.

Helene had swamped parts of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, flooding streets and toppling trees as it passed offshore and brushed the resort city of Cancun. In western Cuba, Helene knocked out power to more than 200,000 homes and businesses as it brushed past the island.


RELATED ARTICLE


Updated
Extreme weather
After Vietnam, Typhoon Yagi came for war-ravaged Myanmar

Areas 160km north of the Georgia-Florida line expected hurricane conditions. The state opened its parks to evacuees and their pets, including horses. Overnight curfews were imposed in many cities and counties in south Georgia.

“This is one of the biggest storms we’ve ever had,” said Georgia Governor Brian Kemp.

For Atlanta, Helene could be the worst strike on a major Southern inland city in 35 years, said University of Georgia meteorology professor Marshall Shepherd.

Helene is the eighth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season this year because of record-warm ocean temperatures.


AP

DESANTISLAND

FLASH FLOODING |
Several dead as ‘catastrophic’ Hurricane Helene hits Florida as one of the largest storms to strike US


Officials urge evacuations due to catastrophic winds and storm surge




Hurricane Helene's projected storm path.




A drone view shows boats as Hurricane Helene intensifies before its expected landfall on Florida’s Big Bend, in Carrabelle, Florida, U.S. September 26, 2024. REUTERS/Marco Bello.




Amber Hardin, 27, spends time with her dog Ducky while taking shelter from Hurricane Helene at Leon High School near downtown Tallahassee, Florida, U.S. Photo: Reuters

Hurricane Helene made landfall on Thursday in northwestern Florida as a Category 4 storm as forecasters warned of “catastrophic” flooding along the Gulf Coast.

The National Hurricane Centre in Miami said Helene roared ashore around 11.10pm local time near the mouth of the Aucilla River in the Big Bend area of Florida’s Gulf Coast. It had maximum sustained winds estimated at 140 mph (225 kph).

Officials have forecast storm surges of up to 20 feet (six metres) and warned they could be particularly “catastrophic and unsurvivable” in Florida’s Apalachee Bay.

Hurricane warnings and flash flood warnings extended far beyond the coast up into northern Georgia and western North Carolina.

Strong winds already cut power to nearly 900,000 homes and businesses in Florida, according to the tracking site poweroutage.us. The governors of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, the Carolinas and Virginia all declared emergencies in their states.

Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, including numerous significant landslides, is expected across portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday.

Two people were reported killed in a possible tornado in south Georgia as the storm approached.

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee issued an “extreme wind warning” for the Big Bend as the eyewall approached: “Treat this warning like a tornado warning,” it said in a post on X. “Take shelter in the most interior room and hunker down!”

Helene arrives barely a year since Hurricane Idalia slammed into Florida’s Big Bend and caused widespread damage. Idalia became a Category 4 in the Gulf of Mexico but made landfall as a Category 3 near Keaton Beach, with maximum sustained winds near 125 mph (205 kph).

The storm’s wrath was felt widely, with sustained tropical storm-force winds and hurricane-force gusts along Florida’s west coast.

Water lapped over a road in Siesta Key near Sarasota and covered some intersections in St Pete Beach. Lumber and other debris from a fire in Cedar Key a week ago crashed ashore in the rising water.


Beyond Florida, up to 10 inches (25 centimetres) of rain had fallen in the North Carolina mountains, with up to 14 inches (36 centimetres) more possible before the deluge ends, setting the stage for flooding that forecasters warned could be worse than anything seen in the past century.

Heavy rains began falling and winds were picking up in Valdosta, Georgia, near the Florida state line. The weather service said more than a dozen Georgia counties could see hurricane-force winds exceeding 110 mph.

In south Georgia, two people were killed when a possible tornado struck a mobile home on Thursday night, Wheeler County Sheriff Randy Rigdon told WMAZ-TV. The damage was reported as heavy thunderstorms raked much of the state. Wheeler County is about 70 miles (113 kilometres) southeast of Macon.

Forecaster Dylan Lusk said the National Weather Service issued a tornado warning for Wheeler County at 8.47pm on Thursday. He said it is one of 12 tornado warnings the office near Atlanta issued for parts of Georgia between 1pm and 11pm.

Many were heeding the mandatory evacuation orders that stretched from the Panhandle south along the Gulf Coast in low-lying areas around Tallahassee, Gainesville, Cedar Key, Lake City, Tampa and Sarasota.


Among them was Sharonda Davis, one of several gathered at a Tallahassee shelter worried their mobile homes would not withstand the winds.

She said the hurricane’s size is “scarier than anything because it’s the aftermath that we’re going to have to face”.

Federal authorities were staging search-and-rescue teams as the weather service forecast storm surges of up to 20 feet (six metres) and warned they could be particularly “catastrophic and unsurvivable” in Apalachee Bay.

“Please, please, please take any evacuation orders seriously!” the office said, describing the surge scenario as “a nightmare”.

This stretch of Florida known as the Forgotten Coast has been largely spared by the widespread condo development and commercialisation that dominates so many of Florida’s beach communities. The region is loved for its natural wonders — the vast stretches of salt marshes, tidal pools and barrier islands.


“You live down here, you run the risk of losing everything to a bad storm,” said Anthony Godwin, 20, who lives about a half-mile (800 metres) from the water in the coastal town of Panacea, as he stopped for petrol before heading west towards his sister’s house in Pensacola.

School districts and multiple universities cancelled classes. Airports in Tampa, Tallahassee and Clearwater were closed on Thursday, while cancellations were widespread elsewhere in Florida and beyond.

While Helene will likely weaken as it moves inland, damaging winds and heavy rain were expected to extend to the southern Appalachian Mountains, where landslides were possible, forecasters said.

The hurricane centre warned that much of the region could experience prolonged power outages and flooding. Tennessee was among the states expected to get drenched.

Guests at the Magic Kingdom break out ponchos at Cinderella Castle (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel via AP)


Helene had swamped parts of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, flooding streets and toppling trees as it passed offshore and brushed the resort city of Cancun.

In western Cuba, Helene knocked out power to more than 200,000 homes and businesses as it brushed past the island.

Areas 100 miles (160 kilometres) north of the Georgia-Florida line expected hurricane conditions. The state opened its parks to evacuees and their pets, including horses. Overnight curfews were imposed in many cities and counties in south Georgia.

“This is one of the biggest storms we’ve ever had,” said Georgia Governor Brian Kemp.

For Atlanta, Helene could be the worst strike on a major southern inland city in 35 years, said University of Georgia meteorology professor Marshall Shepherd.

Helene is the eighth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season this year because of record-warm ocean temperatures.

In further storm activity, Tropical Storm Isaac formed on Wednesday in the Atlantic and was expected to strengthen as it moves eastward across the open ocean, possibly becoming a hurricane by the end of the week, forecasters said.

Officials said its swells and winds could affect parts of Bermuda and eventually the Azores by the weekend.

In the Pacific, former Hurricane John reformed on Wednesday as a tropical storm and strengthened on Thursday back into a hurricane as it threatened areas of Mexico’s western coast with flash flooding and mudslides.

Mexico President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador raised John’s death toll to five as communities along the country’s Pacific coast prepared for the storm to make a second landfall.

Atavism in the American Mass Psyche

by Joseph Natoli

 September 13, 2024
Facebook

TwitterRedditEmail

Photograph by Nathaniel St. Clair

Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 was a surprise, I conjecture, to Trump himself. I think he was surprised earlier in the Primaries how easy it was to mock and upstage his challengers. He could break all the protocols of proper Primary behavior without check. Perhaps that was the first time he realized there was no one or anything to check him. He was like Sky Masterson in Guys and Dolls at play with the pushovers. But he’s a vainglorious sort and he didn’t let a “Damn, I’m the president!” moment stop him from taking command of, well, a whole lot of governmental stuff he didn’t know shite about. Kind of stop me if you can. Like The Gingerbread Man.

His is not an unusual type. We mass produce hucksters swollen on their own hype and con on the assembly line. What’s unusual is that this type has become president and is now in a wire finish race to become president again. I’ve seen photos of his Dad, the slum, racist landlord, and, once again I conjecture, that Trump got twisted in upbringing. Sad, but I don’t care. But the fact that he’s close to twisting the whole country into the same dark, aberrant pit his mind is in needs to be the focus of real concern.

In his debate with Kamala Harris, he exposed a really scary psyche, full tilt delusions and vile fixations bursting through a net of falsehoods. It was like the scene when the curtain drops in The Wizard of Oz and we see the Wizard is just an old guy with a megaphone. Whether Trump’s entrapped himself in his own net, I don’t care. But why and how are others entrapped? What’s going on within the American mass psyche that when the curtain is pulled, they still see a Wizard?

Trump is not a throwback but we are. We are not in the manner of a mass psychosis drawing us to him. I don’t care about that. We’re drawn to Taylor Swift. Is that a mass psychosis? Whatever is going on there far exceeds what is actually there, whether Donald Trump or Taylor Swift. There’s proper weirdness there.

We are atavistic in the ways in which we know the world. Or, more precisely, the ways in which since the end of magic and scholasticism we have adhered to methods of establishing truth and disclosing reality.

What’s going on when Trump denies all fact and evidence, like a Flat Earther or a Holocaust denier, and some 74 million people voted for him in 2020?

Clearly, the Portfolio class will dismiss the soft and fuzzy of the “human factor” and keep their eye on threats to their investments. Democrats will always be a threat to them as long as ”share the wealth” Bernie and Warren are around.

The Pope/Christian Fundamentalists/Evangelicals/Restorationists class will never vote for a party that “kills babies,” or threatens family values with LGBTQ+.

There’s also the “Anything But Liberals, Socialist, and Communist” block who equate diversity with criminal illegals, distrust what lurks behind the call for economic equity, and see Federal intrusion behind inclusion.

The fourth group are bonded to Trump like Jehovah Witnesses are bound to the End Time prophecy of 1870. That may be the Mass Psychosis written about.

Though the fourth group seems more attuned to ignoring rational/empirical cases made based on Enlightenment reasoning, the other three seem to easily handle dumping those “narratives.” They can do what Trump does, which is magisterially dismiss as fake, false and politically weaponized in a heartbeat whatever and whoever tries to put his craziness in check. Maybe the Western Tradition of Rationality and Realism was junked without a thought because it’s always been a peculiarly American style to be free in their thinking, to assert the autonomy of their own thoughts. Within that way of knowing true and false, real and illusion are personal choices. Here, a kind of pathological subjectivism.

Established: Trump’s a psychiatric case study. But what about the 74 million voters who voted for him in 2020 and who may show up again in the coming election?

Clearly, something has happened beyond the ken of political response. Long existing ways of knowing what truth may be and what reality is being confronted have been thrown overboard. I title this piece “Atavism” because it’s clear we’ve reverted to an irrational way of knowing, not confined to religious faith, but across the U.S. landscape. There’s a mass psyche pathology presenting itself here.

The Scientific Method and its practitioners during Covid received little respect and a lot of abuse and personal attacks. Individuals could out do science with a bottle of bleach. No, you didn’t personally believe in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. This dissing of the Method is astounding. Quantum may turn classical physics on its head but what’s going on here is not a rejection of the Law of Non-Contradiction or Causality. This is whacko.

In a short period of time, established print journalism became just “fake news.” If you cite The New York Timesor The Washington Post you’re sneered at. Gratefully, journals of heterodoxy get a pass as to be heterodox suits the belligerent temper of the times. You get the “real truth” from some self-anointed Influencer online.. You didn’t believe a tornado was reported by the weather service because you had never seen one.

Thirty-four felony convictions rendered by due process trial by jury were crooked, weaponized attacks on Trump by Biden operatives. A jury of your peers is now just a big scam. So, the entire judicial system goes out the door. The electoral system is also rigged and needs to go out the door. Or, in Trump’s view, should be done away with. The House’s impeachments had no facts and was also politically conspired against him. He’s the most defamed man since Jesus.

Unless there was already present some aberration in the American mass psyche, the whole Western Tradition of Rationality and Realism would not so easily been vacated. I wrote much at the advent of postmodernity of its critique of that tradition. What I see now is not a deconstruction of that tradition but a reversion to a kind of subjectivism blind and deaf to conditions outside the limitations of our own perceptions. The mad personalize the world within the distorted dimensions of their own consciousness. It can be seen in the man who wants to be president again but it can also be seen so widespread that the common agreement and understanding that any society needs to survive has left us.

It’s the nature of capitalism, especially in its present financialized form to speculate on the movement of prices and gamble on their direction, no value resulting except fabulous riches to the winners, to be unconcerned with our atavism. The uninformed and the delusional are welcome clients of Wealth Management Advisers.

Those who believe that the facts of this world don’t matter and Armageddon is imminent, believe Truth is God’s to know and it’s written that humans are a miserable, hapless lot that can’t be expected to find Truth. It is in fact heretical to presume to know. Galileo was under house arrest and Giordano Bruno burned at the stake. And so, what humans say is always false. Trump points out those occasions.

I suspect that if Trump’s allegation that immigrants are eating dogs and cats in Springfield suits your view of diversity invasion, then he’s Truth telling.  A kind of virus in the mind is now preempting any search for what the facts may be. It might be the worm in RFK, Jr’s brain that’s gone pandemic, though it’s clearly not left him. This is bewildering, weird indeed but disastrous also.

Kamala Harris has an inquisitorial and not a deranged mind. How do I know this? If she didn’t respect the facts leading to a case based on evidence, wasn’t able to find the holes in such a case, wasn’t able to mount a countering case, she would not have had the career she has had. She seeks a common understanding of the evidence she presents.

Perhaps a return to such respect might be therapeutic for the country as a whole. Biden’s presidency, waylaid by inflation and immigration as Viet-nam was for LBJ, has deflected that movement of wealth from the bottom to the top launched by Reagan. However, the failure of many to be informed of what he has done on their behalf tells us once again that we do not seek to be informed nor do we know now how to do so. Trump spoke vilely about Biden at the debate but, to those informed as to what Biden has done not for the 1% but for the working and middle classes, Biden exceeded all expectations of what he could do in the presidency. Trump lampooned Biden because he, Trump, is of that wealth class Biden targeted.

This debility of mind that has crept into the American mass psyche will most likely find no cure in Trump’s departure. It was there before he arrived. It enabled his arrival, this loss of knowing above our own nave, this atavism of mind.

.

Joseph Phillip Natoli’s The New Utrecht Avenue novel trilogy is on sale at Amazon. Time is the Fire ended what began with Get Ready to Run and Between Dog & Wolf. Humour noire with counterpunches. .