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Tuesday, January 27, 2026

Mark Carney, World Hero


 January 26, 2026

Photograph Source: The White House – Public Domain

I’m not in the habit of touting central bankers as heroes, but Mark Carney definitely hit a home-run in his speech at Davos. He called out Donald Trump’s derangement and outlined the basis for a new structure of international relations that does not rely on the United States to play the leading role.

To his credit, Carney did not glorify the old system, acknowledging that in the “rules-based system” led by the United States, the rules were not always followed when it benefited the United States. He didn’t get into the specifics of the violations, maybe his list wouldn’t be as extensive as some of ours, but at least he acknowledged that all were not equal under the law.

But the key point was the recognition that Trump has destroyed the era of U.S. hegemony, and the rest of the world has to adjust to that fact. Carney called on the “middle powers,” which would include Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Japan, South Korea, and Canada, to band together to craft a new system.

Carney has taken big steps in that direction with Canada. He has moved to make new trade deals with Brazil, the European Union, and even Mexico in the event that Trump decides to nix the current tripartite USMCA that is up for renewal this year.

Perhaps most importantly, Carney has moved to strengthen trade ties with China. This both opens up substantial economic benefits and shows the sort of geo-political pragmatism that Canada and other democracies will need in confronting Trump.

On the economic side, China can be a huge market for Canada’s agricultural output, as well as its oil and natural gas, if Trump decides that he no longer wants it. China also can be a major supplier of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and electric vehicles.

On this last issue, Carney struck the perfect compromise. While Canada, like the United States, imposes prohibitive 100% tariffs on most Chinese EVs, it agreed to import 50,000 EVs a year with very low tariffs. This is similar to the voluntary export restraint (VER) agreement the United States had with Japan in the 1980s. At the time, high gas prices were causing a massive shift in demand from big gas guzzling U.S. cars to well-built high mileage Japanese cars.

In order to protect the domestic industry, the Reagan administration agreed to accept a limited number of Japanese cars. This gave the U.S. industry time to adjust and begin building higher quality small cars. The Carney deal with Chinese EVs can have the same effect. It will allow Canadian drivers to recognize the benefits of the low-cost high quality EVs produced by Chinese will at the same time providing breathing space for its domestic auto industry to produce EVs, likely in collaboration with the leading Chinese companies.

This sort of deal can also be a model for Europe, which is also struggling with Chinese competition in its auto industry. Unlike Donald Trump, the rest of the world recognizes the reality of global warming. This means that they have a very real interest in shifting as quickly as possible to EVs, while still preserving jobs in their auto industry. This will also raise living standards, as people can buy cars that cost less to buy and far less to operate.

Carney’s deals seem to already be paying off for the country’s economy. It added254,000 jobs in 2025, growth of 1.4%. This would be equivalent to an increase in jobs of more than 2.2 million in the United States, roughly four times what we generated last year. In spite of the drop in exports with the United States, Canada’s exports were 0.5% higher in 2025 than in 2024.

While it is common for pundits to boast that the United States economy has left other wealthy countries in the dust, measured in purchasing power parity terms, Canada’s economy has actually grown slightly more rapidly than the U.S. economy since the pandemic.

This doesn’t mean everything is great in Canada. At 6.8 percent, its unemployment rate is considerably higher than in the United States. But this was also true before the pandemic. Canada also has a problem of high housing prices, which Carney is attempting to address by promoting new construction. The jury is still out on that one, but it is helpful to have someone in charge who can think about these issues seriously.

The other part of this story is that Europe and other democracies need to approach China with the same sort of pragmatic clarity as Carney. China is not a democracy, and it has a long list of human rights abuses. Nonetheless, it is an essential ally in a world where Donald Trump insists that he can do whatever he wants.

If closer ties with China seems troublesome, people should look back to the alliance with the Soviet Union in World War II. No one thought Joseph Stalin was a nice guy, but Roosevelt, Churchill and the rest of the anti-fascist alliance understood the necessity of his role in defeating Hitler. It is unfortunate that we have come to the point where China would be seen as the stable super-power, but we have.

It would be great if Canada and other middle powers, to take Carney’s phrase, can reconstruct a international system of laws, where ideally they will be applied equally regardless of the power of the states in question. Hopefully, they will promote democracy and human rights in practice, not just in rhetoric.

But those are issues that will ultimately be determined down the road. For now, the issue at hand is putting together an alliance of countries that can tell Donald Trump he cannot do whatever he wants around the world. And if he doesn’t like it, maybe he can get his friend at FIFA to give him another peace prize.

This first ran on Dean Baker’s Beat the Press blog.

Dean Baker is the senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC. 

Monday, January 26, 2026

Resisting the monstrous trifecta of war, genocide and ecocide


Transnational Institute graphic ecocide imperialism palestine

Everywhere, especially the Global South, is suffering from the ongoing effects of the imperialist carve up of the world in the 19th and early 20th centuries. This was achieved by war, genocide, colonisation and semi-colonialism, and the expropriation and theft of the Global South’s wealth. 

As the damaging legacies of historic imperialism continue to play out, today’s United States-led imperialism and global capitalism has wrought even more destruction of peoples and planet; it has increased economic inequality between the Global North and South, as well as between workers and oppressed people and capitalists.

US-led imperialism and global capitalism are now reaching ever-higher levels of depravity; this is evidenced by more than two years of genocidal war on Gaza, the US’ recent illegal military assault on Venezuela and the global rolling back of already inadequate climate protections, led by US President Donald Trump.

We are now facing a monstrous trifecta of genocide, war and ecocide.

But at the same time, we are witnessing a resurgence in popular resistance to imperialism, particularly in the global movement for Palestine solidarity, Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s and the Democratic Socialists of America’s success in New York, the rise of Your Party and the Greens in Britain, the Gen-Z uprisings, pro-democracy protests in Iran and, potentially, an upsurge in anti-imperialist organising after the events in Venezuela.

Unlike earlier US administrations, the Trump administration no longer keeps up even the pretence of following “international law” because it either no longer deems that necessary, or worth the political or economic cost.

Israel and the US’ genocide in Gaza have already paved the way for the complete flouting of post-World War II institutions — the United Nations, the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice. While each is incredibly flawed, they were set up to purportedly prevent war and promote international human rights.

Trump’s recent actions in Venezuela, and elsewhere, are a big middle finger to these institutions and to humanity in general. When asked on January 9, if there were any limits to his power, Trump said: “Yeah … My own morality. My own mind. I don’t need international law.”

The current international situation is shaped by US imperialism’s (and particularly Trump’s) desire to shed all pre-existing fetters and solidify the US’ global hegemony. 
Jason Hickel put it well on X:

Bombing Venezuela while coordinating a genocide in Palestine while threatening to attack Iran (Again) while destabilising Somalia, while carrying out a heist in the DRC [Democratic Republic of the Congo]. US imperialism is the greatest threat to peace and security in our world today.

Leaders in the Global North have largely failed to condemn the US, although French President Emmanuel Macron and German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier have criticised its aggression and denounced “new colonialism”, although without naming the attack on Venezuela.

If anyone was doubtful that there is a direct, causal link between US-led imperialism and capitalism on the one hand, and war, ecocide and genocide on the other, you only have to read one of Trump’s recent tweets:

I am pleased to announce that the Interim Authorities in Venezuela will be turning over between 30 and 50 MILLION Barrels of High Quality, Sanctioned Oil, to the United States of America. This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America!

It’s clear: war and invasion for the purpose of grabbing resources (in this case oil) to make profits, control the market and create economic “growth”. Oil emissions will increase global warming and ecocide; the profits from oil sales will then be used to fuel and fund further wars and genocides, and the cycle continues.

Threat to ecosystem

We know that capitalism is incompatible with human life and the planet’s ecosystem, but the question is how much longer before it becomes uninhabitable. Many parts of the Earth are already uninhabitable. We have just experienced a record breaking heat wave in the South and Eastern states of Australia, and another bushfire season has started in Victoria. A Lancet climate change report published in October said that “heat-related deaths have risen by 63% since the 1990s, causing, on average, 546,000 deaths annually in 2012–21”.

The World Weather Attribution Annual Report said in 2025 that “human-driven greenhouse gas emissions meant global temperatures were exceptionally high [causing] … prolonged heat waves, worsened drought conditions and fire weather” as well as increasing extreme rainfall and winds associated with severe storms and floods. These have led to thousands of fatalities and displaced millions of people.

“The events of 2025 demonstrate the growing risks already present at approximately 1.3°C of anthropogenic warming and reinforce the urgent necessity of accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels,” it said.

We should note that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said global warming must be limited to a 1.5°C rise by 2030 to avoid “ catastrophic climate breakdown”. 
Global South countries are the most badly impacted, despite being the lowest emitters, historically and currently, as well as being victims of the colonial extractivism of resources.

Recent research by Hickel reveals that the Global North is responsible for 86% of all emissions in excess of the safe planetary boundary, which is set by scientists as 350 parts per million. This figure refers to the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Global North governments, such as Australia, are driving global climate change to seek profits. They are often paid off or supported by billionaire oil and gas magnates. Currently Australia is the second-biggest exporter of greenhouse gas emissions through coal and gas. Climate Analytics says that its global fossil fuel carbon footprint is three times larger than its domestic footprint.

Capitalism incompatible with sustainability

The logic of the capitalist mode of production itself — the need for ongoing economic growth, ever increasing rates of profit and ongoing capital accumulation — is at the root of today’s ecocide.

As John Bellamy Foster states:

Economic growth, based on non-stop capital accumulation, is the main cause of the destruction of the earth as a safe place for humanity.

Renewables are necessary, but in a capitalist system they cannot provide a solution for two main reasons.

First, renewables are attractive for some capitalists, however they are utilising renewables for their own profit-making, rather than to seriously ameliorate the climate crisis.

Secondly, capitalists do not see renewables as capable of providing maximum ongoing profits. Fossil fuels are a better option because they are more marketable. There are significant costs to set up and production of renewables and the profits they return are not deemed high enough to outweigh the costs.

Economist Brett Christophers argues that solar and wind projects are simply not financially viable in a capitalist economy. 

Rather than being able to thrive in the free market, renewables projects are still almost entirely reliant on some extent of state support to remain commercially viable.

The Trump administration has declared war on climate protection policies. Trump’s mantra “We will drill baby drill” is not only applied to the US, but most dramatically, in recent times, to Venezuela.

The news that Trump has withdrawn the US from the IPCC follows a litany of attacks on climate protections after he returned to office. The Trump administration withdrew from the Paris agreement for the second time; ramped up oil and gas production; massively cut funding to climate science; scrapped major offshore wind projects, and rolled back more than 140 environmental rules and regulations including pollution and greenhouse gas emission restrictions. Cutting rules and regulations on pollution and emissions will make whole communities sick.

Trump has also successfully pressured other Global North countries to back track on their existing already too weak climate targets. Following trade pressures, last year Canada agreed to boost oil and gas production. Last December, European Council and European Parliament negotiators caved under pressure from the fossil fuel industry, business associations and the Trump administration, agreeing to major rollbacks of their climate obligations.

COP30 was a cop-out. The climate conference was dominated by fossil-fuel lobbyists, and failed to secure any commitment to cut fossil fuels, protect forests, or commit to adequate financial reparations to Global South countries.

Wellthon Leal, a member of the Global Ecosocialism Network reported from COP30 that the “sustainable solutions” that lobbyists from the Global North were pushing “in reality, deepen the exploitation of Global South countries.

“Never before had the South been so sought after as a carbon-offset zone, a sacrifice area for data centers, and a region targeted for rare-earth extraction — all disguised as investment promises.”

As Hickel explained in a recent article for TriContinental:

The disaster that is being wrought is a direct continuation of colonial violence … when we understand that this is the trajectory that our ruling classes are currently planning to achieve (and which could very easily be avoided), it is difficult to see it as anything other than genocidal.

Although the organised climate movement seems to be at a low ebb in the Global North, indigenous activists are leading actions in Global South countries.

In Belem, Brazil, a People’s Summit was organised in parallel to the official COP; it brought together more than 1000 climate organisations and culminated in a 70,000 strong Global Climate March. Protesters held signs which read “agribusiness is fire”, “there is no climate justice without popular agrarian reform”, and “environmental collapse is capitalist”.

Ecocide: no longer a byproduct of war

The legal use of the term “ecocide” began with scientists raising alarm about the US’ deployment of environmental warfare during the Vietnam War, with Agent Orange and the purposeful destruction of agricultural crops.

From the mid 20th Century onwards, ecocide is no longer just a byproduct of genocide and war, but is increasingly used a weapon in itself.

This has been made painfully clear in Gaza, where Israel has embarked on a systematic process of environmental destruction involving polluting weapons: Gaza is now polluted by 40 million tonnes of debris and hazardous material, much of it containing human remains, which the UN estimates will take decades to clear. On top of this, Israel has purposefully destroyed sewage treatment plants allowing seawater to become contaminated.

Israel has fundamentally altered Gaza’s landscape through a process of forced topographic change caused by constant bombardment and bulldozing, the destruction of about 90% of agricultural land and the large-scale extraction of water.

All this is deliberately aimed at making Gaza uninhabitable. The winter storms there were extremely severe due to the effects of climate change. Israel lost no time in weaponising the storms to kill more Palestinians by preventing them accessing appropriate shelters for wet and cold weather as well as the aid blockade.

The apocalypse in Gaza continues. Israel has violated the fake ceasefire agreement, brokered by Trump in October, by up to 900 times. At least 425 Palestinians have been killed and 1158 injured since the so-called ceasefire began.

Israel has suspended more than 48 humanitarian organisations, including Medicine San Frontiers and the Norwegian Refugee Council “for failing to meet its new rules for aid groups working in the war-ravaged Gaza Strip”.

There is no doubt that the Trump administration has given Israel the green light to do what it wants in Gaza and the West Bank, which is turning increasingly into another Gaza.

Trump also gave Israel the go ahead to attack at least six countries last year, including Iran, Lebanon, Qatar, Syria and Yemen. Israel also carried out strikes in Tunisian, Maltese and Greek territorial waters on the Sumud aid flotillas heading for Gaza.

The US brokered “Peace Plan” is a new colonial project; a Mandate 3.0. It means Gaza will be dominated, occupied and under the military, economic and political control of Israel and the US. It means that Palestinians will lose any possibility of self-determination.

The UN Security Council, on November 17, 2025, endorsed this Peace Plan, with China and Russia abstaining, rather than using their veto power. This seems to confirm that China and Russia, along with other BRICS countries, do not have the political will to stand up against US hegemony on behalf of the Global South.

While the global Palestine solidarity movement continues, with key highlights being the Sumud Flotilla and the general strikes for Palestine in Italy and Spain, the trend is for Global North governments to pass new laws allowing for severe repression of the anti-genocide movement.

The weaponisation of antisemitism has led to the curtailing of basic civil liberties and the right to protest, especially in Britain and Australia. In the latter, the federal and NSW Labor governments are weaponising the Bondi attack to attack anti-genocide activists.

The unceasing horror of Israel’s genocide in Palestine has sharpened anti-colonial consciousness, including that US imperialism needs Israel as its bulwark in the Middle East.

Sudan genocide

In addition, the genocides in Sudan and the Congo are equally horrific. The so-called civil war in Sudan is the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. This genocide is visible from the air—dark spots of blood appear on satellite images.

Since 2023, when the war between Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and RSF (Rapid Support Forces) began, more than 150,000 have been killed, 13 million have been displaced, and half the population is facing famine.

Sidgi Kaball, of the Sudanese Communist Party, says the war in Sudan is not a civil war in the traditional sense but a counterrevolutionary war, conducted by a parasitic comprador elites in the military, who are using the war to completely crush Sudan’s pro-democracy revolution of 2018.

At the same time, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which is bankrolling the RSF, has already extracted and profited from Sudan’s gold and wants to continue to do so.

US allies in the region — Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — have formed the “Quad” group to supposedly take charge of negotiating an end to the ongoing war. They are not neutral actors; all are working to maintain their contracts in Sudan with corporations such as Caltex and BP.

The Quad countries have a direct economic stake in continuing the violence, because they make profits from the resources extracted during the war in Sudan.

Meanwhile, there is now evidence that Australia is involved in the genocide in Sudan. The UAE (which is arming the RSF), purchases most of its military equipment from the US and its Western allies, including Britain, France, Germany, Israel and Australia. According to the UN’s Comtrade database, over the last five years, the UAE has been the single biggest customer for Australian arms exports and Australia was UAE’s fourth-largest supplier of weapons over that same period.

The people of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) are also dealing with a genocide, which has been ongoing for more than 30 years. The wars are being fought over minerals, such as cobalt and gold, and now the various rare-earth minerals used for high tech industry and electronic devices.

The situation escalated in 2025 when the Rwanda-backed M23 militia drove the national Congolese army out of Goma. The ensuing conflict has caused record levels of violence against the civilian population. At the same time rare-earth minerals continue to be extracted providing super profits for capitalists in the Global North and China.

Constant wars the corollary to genocide

US imperialism needs war. A new war with Venezuela and the threat of conflict with the rest of Latin America and Greenland shows up Trump’s hollow claim to want to end all wars.

US-led imperialism faces, but can’t resolve, threats to US hegemony from China’s growing economic strength, the environmental crisis and capitalism’s recurring economic crises.

To counter these threats, the Trump administration is making sure its military domination is unchallenged. Its solution is more war. At the same time, the global imperialist ruling class is falling over itself to defend US hegemony.

The US National Security Strategy (NSS) 2025 document, released in December, unabashedly describes the new policy as a return to unchallenged domination of the Western Hemisphere through a revival of the Monroe doctrine. Trump calls his Monroe doctrine the “Donroe doctrine”.

Rise of the far right

US-led imperialism, in combination with four decades of neoliberal policies, are fuelling the rise of the far right. The ruling class is using the far right to enlist a part of the working class in its battle to defend US hegemony. This is very different to the ways in which fascism was used to crush a huge socialist and communist working class, and its real power, in the 1930s.

The contradiction here is that the ruling class is making more profits than ever; recent statistics show the top 0.001% own three times more wealth than the poorest half of the world’s population combined. US imperialism is still the world’s dominant economic, military and cultural power.

An article in Foreign Affairs early in 2025 noted its corporations still control the commanding heights of the global economy. But, despite this, ideologically their power is uncertain, as is their economic hegemony.

Trump’s demand on NATO countries to increase their military spending proves the point that war is necessary to Trump’s project. It is akin to Hitler’s move to make re-armament a national economic priority before World War II.

But because the US already spends more than any other country on the military, his announcement reveals a certain desperation to hold onto global power and to cement it by any means necessary. Trump claims tariffs will pay for this, but we all know the US’ own working class and oppressed groups are the ones who will pay.

Trump eyes off oil

Although Venezuela is Trump’s key target, he has threatened Colombia and Mexico, and his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has threatened Cuba. Trump wants full domination of the Americas to the exclusion of rival capitalist powers.

The attack on Venezuela was Trump’s most aggressive foreign military action yet, striking Caracas, as well as other parts of the country and kidnapping President Nicolas Maduro and Cilia Flores.

While for more than 20 years, the US has been trying to overthrow the Venezuelan government and has backed coups in Latin America throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, there is a difference in the level of audacity.

This was not a covert operation, but one announced with pride and fanfare. The US military build-up, including warships, planes and soldiers in the Caribbean, was at first posed as necessary to fight drug trafficking and narcoterrorism, despite no evidence being produced.

Trump has since made clear the attack is all about Venezuela’s oil and economic control of the region. Tellingly, Trump tipped off oil CEOs about the attack before he consulted anyone else in his administration. Trump said that, as part of the takeover, major US oil companies would move into Venezuela, which has the world’s largest oil reserves, and refurbish supposedly badly degraded oil infrastructure, a process experts said could take years.

While Socialist Alliance has expressed criticism of Maduro for failing to publicly show the 2024 election results and for his suppression of dissent, it has always condemned the brutal US sanctions and blockade, which has led to the deaths of thousands of Venezuelans and destabilised the country. We demand the US leave Venezuela and allow Venezuelans their right to self-determination.

Latin American unity is unraveling as far-right governments are elected, including Argentinean President Javier Milei, a Trump supporter, and José Antonio Kast in Chile, the son of a Nazi Party member and an admirer of Pinochet.

The attack on Venezuela raises the question of how this will affect Russia’s war on Ukraine, the US’ rivalry with China and other global conflicts. 

The US’ policy of “containing” China and expanding NATO to encircle Russia has not changed.

However, Trump has made clear he wants NATO members and the EU to take greater fiscal responsibility for the Ukraine war. In June they succumbed to pressure and agreed to increase their military spending to 5% of GDP annually. Trump is likely to broker a deal for Ukraine, where Ukraine loses more.

The aggression of countries, including Russia and China, on their neighbours should not be seen as inter-imperialist rivalry, but as attempts to pursue their own independent economic projects and military strategies — which are not in the interests of working people.

However, the ultimate domination of US-led imperialism exacerbates the conflicts and antagonisms of non-imperialist states, with often horrific repercussions. The situation for the Kurds in North East Syria epitomises this.

Kurds have been the target of slaughter at the hands of competing countries, such as Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria, for decades. Now, the Ahmed al-Sharaa Syrian regime, backed by Turkish armed forces and allied mercenary militias, are attacking and destroying Kurdish neighbourhoods of Aleppo, in northern Syria.

Diplomacy, not more war

Four years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with loss of life and environmental destruction in the extreme, it is evident that it is a catastrophe for both countries. According to the British Ministry of Defence, more than one million Russian troops have been killed or injured since February 24, 2022 and between 60–100,000 Ukrainian personnel have been killed with total casualties reaching approximately 400,000.

Diplomacy, rather than more war, is needed to resolve the conflict. But war is profitable, and means that the United States and its Western allies’ can continue to dominate the global capitalist world order. Russia’s war on Ukraine is also profitable for Putin and Russian elites, and for big oil companies which have made billions since the invasion.

China’s response to Venezuela has, so far, been lukewarm and primarily shaped by its desire to protect its economic interests, which include oil, in the country.

China, like other members of BRICS, have been incapable of condemning the US. They are not a real counter to US-led imperialism because they too want to maintain their own capitalist interests; they need to maintain growing profits in the global market and balance their own sovereignty with maintaining a mutually beneficial relationship with the US.

China does not play the role the former Soviet Union (with all its flaws) once did.

US-led imperialism and global capitalism is at the root of ecocide, genocides and constant wars.

What is the antidote? The only force capable of making meaningful cracks in the imperialist and capitalist armour is a mass movement of international ecosocialism. And this is what we need to build.

World not ready for rise in extreme heat, scientists say


By AFP
January 26, 2026


Climate change could mean billions of people face extreme heat around the globe by 2050, mostly in poorer countries but also in cold-climate nations - Copyright AFP Mukesh GUPTA


Nick Perry

Nearly 3.8 billion people could face extreme heat by 2050 and while tropical countries will bear the brunt cooler regions will also need to adapt, scientists said Monday.

Demand for cooling will “drastically” increase in giant countries like Brazil, Indonesia and Nigeria, where hundreds of millions of people lack air conditioning or other means of beating the heat.

But even a moderate increase in hotter days could have a “severe impact” in nations not used to such conditions like Canada, Russia and Finland, said scientists from the University of Oxford.

In a new study, they looked at different global warming scenarios to project how often people in future might experience temperatures considered uncomfortably hot or cold.

They found “that the population experiencing extreme heat conditions is projected to nearly double” by 2050 if global average temperatures rise 2C above preindustrial times.

But most of the impact would be felt this decade as the world fast approaches the 1.5C mark, the study’s lead author Jesus Lizana told AFP.

“The key take away from this is that the need for adaptation to extreme heat is more urgent than previously known,” said Lizana, an environmental scientist.

“New infrastructure, such as sustainable air conditioning or passive cooling, needs to be built out within the next few years to ensure people can cope with dangerous heat.”

Prolonged exposure to extreme heat can overwhelm the body’s natural cooling systems, causing symptoms ranging from dizziness and headaches to organ failure and death.

It is often called a silent killer because most heat deaths occur gradually as high temperatures and other environmental factors work together to undermine the body’s internal thermostat.

Climate change is making heatwaves longer and stronger and access to cooling — especially air conditioning — will be vital in future.



– ‘Dangerously underprepared’ –



The study, published in the journal Nature Sustainability, projected that 3.79 billion people worldwide could be exposed to extreme heat by mid century.

This would “drastically” increase energy demand for cooling in developing nations where the gravest health consequences would be felt. India, the Philippines and Bangladesh would be among biggest populations impacted.

The most significant change in “cooling degree days” — temperatures hot enough to require cooling, such as air conditioning or fans — were projected in tropical or equatorial countries, particularly in Africa.

Central African Republic, Nigeria, South Sudan, Laos and Brazil saw the biggest rise in dangerously hot temperatures.

“Put simply, the most disadvantaged people are the ones who will bare the brunt of this trend our study shows for ever hotter days,” urban climate scientist and research co-author Radhika Khosla told AFP.

But wealthier countries in traditionally cooler climates also “face a major a problem — even if many do not realise it yet”, she added.

Countries like Canada, Russia and Finland may experience steep drops in “heating degree days” — temperatures low enough to require indoor heating — under a 2C scenario.

But even a moderate rise in hotter temperatures would be felt more acutely in countries not designed to withstand heat, the authors said.

In these countries, homes and buildings are usually constructed to maximise sunshine and reduce ventilation, and public transport runs without air conditioning.

Some cold-climate nations may see a drop in heating bills, Lizana said, but over time these savings would likely be replaced by cooling costs, including in Europe where air conditioning is still rare.

“Wealthier countries cannot sit back and assume they will be OK -– in many cases they are dangerously underprepared for the heat that is coming over the next few years,” he said.

Sunday, January 25, 2026

BAD NEWZ

Global Energy Transition Threatened by Critical Transformer Shortages

  • The global clean energy transition is being jeopardized by critical transformer shortages and aging grid infrastructure in the United States and Europe.

  • Skyrocketing demand for transformers, driven by global economic development and AI, has led to a significant supply deficit with domestic manufacturing unable to keep pace, escalating costs and delaying new generating plants.

  • The growing crisis is attributed to years of underinvestment in domestic manufacturing, a post-pandemic surge in construction, and volatility in key material markets like steel and copper.

The global clean energy transition has passed a tipping point as renewable energies have simply become too cheap to fail. Worldwide, nations both rich and poor are rushing to install more and more wind and solar capacity to keep up with rising energy demand rates driven by global economic development and the age of AI. But while countries have been investing heavily into increased production capacity, investments in critical grid infrastructure have not kept pace, leading to a major energy transition bottleneck and a potential threat to energy security for an increasing number of countries.

The United States and Europe are both facing critical transformer shortages and aging and inadequate grid infrastructure, and the threat that this shortage poses to energy security is already being felt through historic blackouts such as last year’s cascading grid failure in Spain and Portugal. While these setbacks have raised the profile of infrastructure investing in European policy spheres, “ambition is not yet being matched by action from governments, policy-makers, investors and businesses,” according to a recent report from the World Economic Forum. 

In the United States, specialists foresee a yearslong transformer crunch, with little to no relief forthcoming. While companies have rushed to ramp up production of power transformers and distribution transformers, keeping up with skyrocketing demand is an impossibly tall order. Wood Mackenzie estimates that, since 2019, U.S. demand for power transformers has jumped by 116 percent, while demand for distribution transformers has shot up 41 percent. 


"This surging transformer demand has created a significant supply deficit, with domestic manufacturing capacity unable to keep pace," Wood Mackenzie Senior Analyst Ben Boucher. "Utilities are routinely turning to the import market to meet project timelines. In 2025, imports will account for an estimated 80% of US power transformer supply and 50% of the distribution transformer supply. This market imbalance is escalating costs and lead times and is delaying our ability to bring generating plants online in pace with the surging energy demand."

However, some experts disagree with this takeaway, arguing that the transformer “shortage” is overblown if not fabricated, and the issue lies in self-inflicted procurement problems. There’s room for debate because the issue is a complex one stretching over many different economic sectors and supply chains. Whether the problem is one of supply or one of procurement, however, the impact is the same – major bottlenecks for new electricity with potential pitfalls for national energy security. 

“Over the past few years, what started as a squeeze has gradually morphed into a crisis,” Power Magazine recently reported. The Power article contends that this growing crisis has been “furnished by years of underinvestment in domestic manufacturing, a sudden surge in post-pandemic construction and electrification, and volatility in grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) and copper markets, which steadily pushed lead times for large power and generator step-up (GSU) transformers beyond historical norms.”

And those driving factors are showing little signs of changing, indicating that delay times for transformer delivery are going to continue to stretch on. Even though demand for these products is now growing exponentially, this spike is coming in the wake of years of lackluster demand, and would-be investors are still warming up to the idea that they’ll get a return on their investment in the sector. 

Hitachi, one major producer of such transformers, for example, has strategically only invested in transformer development when the purchase of those components is already guaranteed and buyer-backed.  “Nobody wants to overinvest” in new production facilities, according to Hitachi Energy CEO Andreas Schierenbeck.

Through these kinds of up-front deals, Hitachi has planned $1 billion in new manufacturing capacity across the United States. However, Schierenbeck told news outlet Semafor this week that these deals are “probably not enough to close the gap between supply and demand… There are still customers who are just in the old world with transactional behavior, and they’ll have to be lucky to get a slot.”

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com 


Why the Humble Capacitor is the Electric Car Industry's New Crisis

  • The shift to 800-volt systems and Silicon Carbide inverters, while increasing efficiency,
  •  imposes extreme thermal and electrical stress on passive components like capacitors, effectively trading short-term battery range for long-term hardware durability.

  • Failures in high-voltage systems, such as a blown $25 fuse in the sealed Integrated Charging Control Unit (ICCU), lead to repair bills between $3,000 and $4,500 because the entire assembly must be replaced, resulting in an impending "totaling" crisis for older EVs.

  • The supply chain for critical capacitor materials, including high-purity etched aluminum foil and ultra-thin polypropylene film, is dangerously concentrated among a handful of manufacturers, which poses a significant and unaddressed risk to future EV production targets.

Lego car

The global electric vehicle transition is currently being sold as a triumph of mineral procurement and gigafactory scaling... a narrative where lithium mines and nickel refineries are the only hurdles between us and a decarbonized fleet. 

But while the industry fixates on the battery, it is ignoring the passive electronic components that must handle the violent throughput of high-voltage energy.

The market for EV capacitors has ballooned to $5.32 billion. This growth is a symptom of a technical crisis. 


The shift to 800V architectures and Silicon Carbide (SiC) inverters has turned the humble capacitor from a commodity into a stubbornly analog, physically massive, and heat- and vibration-prone strategic choke point.

To understand the financial volatility of 2026, one must look past the software and into the etched foil and polypropylene film... because the physics simply isn't adding up to the marketing promises.

The 800-Volt Fever: A Double-Edged Sword

Automakers are currently locked in an arms race to 800-volt systems to enable the 15-minute charge times that consumers demand. On paper, it is a masterstroke of efficiency. In reality, it is a pressure cooker for power electronics.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that global EV spending exceeded $425 billion, but a growing slice of that capital is being eaten by the "multiplier effect" of component density. 

A standard internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle requires roughly 3,000 Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitors (MLCCs). A modern Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) requires up to 22,000.

This represents more high-purity aluminum and specialty ceramic than the existing supply chain was ever designed to extrude... and the friction is starting to smoke.

The DC-link capacitor is the literal dam holding back the reservoir of energy from the battery. In 800V systems, this component must be 20-30% larger to maintain safety margins against electrical arcing. 

Yet, the industry-wide push for "e-axles", where the motor and inverter are one compact unit, forces these larger, more heat-sensitive components into tighter, hotter spaces.

The result is a collision between the marketing department's desire for "fast charging" and the engineering department's struggle with "thermal runaway."

Efficiency at the Expense of Durability

Wall Street loves Silicon Carbide (SiC). It is the material that allows Tesla, BYD, and Hyundai to squeeze 5% more range out of a battery pack by reducing switching losses. 

But SiC is a "violent" switch.

These chips turn on and off in nanoseconds. This speed is what makes them efficient, but it creates a massive dV/dt (change in voltage over time) that hits the capacitor and motor windings like a high-frequency sledgehammer.

"We are effectively trading long-term hardware durability for short-term battery range..."

The high-frequency ripple current generated by SiC switching passes through the capacitor’s internal structure, generating heat through Equivalent Series Resistance (ESR). Since the dominant dielectric—polypropylene—is a thermoplastic, it begins to soften and degrade at 105°C.

In 2026, we are seeing a rising trend of "insulation fatigue." 

You might have a million-mile battery, but if the insulation in your $2,000 inverter is chewed up by the dV/dt of your SiC chips, the car is dead at 100,000 miles. The "efficiency" isn't free... it is being transferred from the battery's Bill of Materials (BOM) to the consumer's future repair bill.

The "Right to Repair" Time Bomb

The most contentious issue at the intersection of finance and hardware is the reparability—or lack thereof—of these high-voltage systems.

Take the Integrated Charging Control Unit (ICCU) failures that have plagued the industry over the last 18 months. When a transient over-current condition—often driven by the very SiC switching we praise—blows an internal high-voltage fuse, the financial fallout is absurd.

The fuse costs roughly $25.

However, because the unit is potted in resin and sealed for liquid cooling, dealers do not open them. They replace the entire assembly. For the owner of a five-year-old EV, this results in a repair bill ranging from $3,000 to $4,500.

This is the EV equivalent of a blown engine caused by a faulty spark plug.

As the first massive wave of 2020-2022 EVs exits warranty in 2026 and 2027, the secondary market is facing a "totaling" crisis. 

A $4,000 repair on a vehicle with $12,000 in remaining equity is an economic death sentence. This "analog entropy" is the silent killer of EV residual values... and it’s a story no OEM wants to tell.

Three Hidden Monopolies: Foil, Film, and Fumes

The supply chain for these components is more concentrated than the market for lithium. If you want to understand the real risk to 2026 production targets, you have to look at the "etched foil oligopoly."

Aluminum electrolytic capacitors rely on high-purity etched foil. This is not kitchen foil; it is an electrochemical marvel that increases surface area hundreds of times through acid-tunnel etching. This process is energy-intensive, environmentally toxic, and almost entirely controlled by a handful of Japanese and Chinese titans: JCC (Japan Capacitor Industrial), Resonac (formerly Showa Denko), and UACJ.

Lead times for these foils have historically blown out to 24 weeks during demand surges.

Then there is the "3-micron bottleneck."

The film capacitors used in 800V inverters rely on ultra-thin, bi-axially oriented polypropylene (BOPP) film. The market leader, Toray Industries, is currently the only supplier that can consistently produce the <3-micron grades required for high-density automotive inverters.

While China is aggressively expanding its capacity, Western OEMs are terrified of the liability. 

A defect in a capacitor film doesn't just make the car stop... it can cause an energetic disassembly (a fire). This risk premium keeps the global supply chain tethered to a few legacy factories in Japan.

Addressing the Supercapacitor Hype

We cannot discuss this market without addressing the hype around supercapacitors. Every few months, a headline suggests supercapacitors will replace batteries.

The data says otherwise.

Supercapacitors have immense power density but pathetic energy density. They are not the "tank"... they are the "booster." 

We see them in high-performance halos like the Lamborghini Sian or in heavy-duty garbage trucks where they capture regenerative braking energy that would otherwise fry a chemical battery.

Skeleton Technologies and Maxwell (now a shadow of its former self) have shown that the real volume is in "shaving the peaks." By using a supercapacitor to handle the instant-on torque or the hard-braking surges, you extend the life of the main battery. It is a protective layer, not a replacement. In 2026, this remains a niche high-cost solution for vehicles that live in a "stop-start" hell.

A Reality Check 

As we look toward the 2030 targets set by the EU, the math for the capacitor supply chain doesn't work without a radical shift in engineering.

The industry is currently running toward a "Hardware Wall."

We have optimized the software, we have scaled the battery chemistry, but we are still relying on a 50-year-old dielectric and a 100-year-old manufacturing process to manage the most advanced powertrains in history.

The financial winners won't be the companies that announce the most pivotal software updates. They will be the ones that solve the serviceability of the inverter and the durability of the insulation.

Short term: The grey market for third-party EV repair will boom as owners realize they don't want to pay $4,000 for a blown fuse.

Long term: The value consolidates around the companies that control the high-purity materials. If you don't own the film or the foil, you don't own the future of the electric vehicle.

The electric transition isn't just a software revolution; it’s an analog brawl... and the capacitor is the one throwing the hardest punches.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com