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Friday, October 25, 2024

What drove Hamas on Oct 7 and what drives them still?

A look into the group's origins and history may explain the violent nature of the ongoing conflict.



Mikail Ahmed Shaikh 
Published October 24, 2024
DAWN


The attacks of October 7, 2023, saw over 1,000 people killed in Israel, while over 250 were taken hostage by Hamas. Israel was caught off guard, as was the rest of the world. Nobody saw it coming, nor did anyone see the Israeli military’s retaliatory scorched-earth campaign in the Gaza Strip
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It’s been over a year since that day, during which time Gaza has borne witness to one of the bloodiest conflicts in the region in decades.

Over 42,000 people have been killed in Gaza, with Israel no closer to rescuing the hostages, although the Israeli military assassinated Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in July and his successor Yahya Sinwar in October, who was the alleged mastermind of the October 7 attacks.

Meanwhile, South Africa has filed a “genocide” case against Israel with the International Court of Justice, while the International Criminal Court has applied for arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Defence Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes.


A Palestinian boy sits as people search the rubble of the Harb family home destroyed in overnight Israeli strikes in the Al Bureij refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip, on June 18, 2024. — AFP/File

Attempts at truce talks and mediation have thus far failed and with an extensive bombing spree in Lebanon having followed — which killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah — there is a very real fear of the conflict expanding into a regional conflagration.

So, it warrants asking why Hamas attacked Israelis in the first place. An attack that led to one of the most violent asymmetric conflicts of the 21st century.

According to a 2023 analysis by Joe Macaron for Qatari state-run broadcaster Al Jazeera, Hamas’ attack was triggered following “growing demands for a response” to far-right Israeli policy in the occupied West Bank, especially surrounding illegal settlements.

“The rising tensions in the West Bank caused by these policies necessitated the shift of Israeli forces away from the south and into the north to guard the settlements,” Macaron writes. “This gave Hamas both a justification and an opportunity to attack.”

Moreover, Macaron argues that the normalisation of Arab-Israeli relations was an additional motive for the attack since the process “further diminished the significance of the Palestinian issue for Arab leaders who became less keen on pressuring Israel on this matter”.


A view of a junction shows the aftermath of a mass infiltration by Hamas gunmen from the Gaza Strip, in the Sderot area, southern Israel on October 7, 2023. — Reuters

On the other hand, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organisation, argues, “One of Hamas’s goals was simply to kill Israelis,” citing a report by The Washington Post which reported that attackers had written instructions to do so.

The CSIS piece also suggests that Hamas was driven by revenge for past Israeli violence and the illegal occupation of the West Bank.

Alternatively, a senior Hamas official told Al Jazeera in October 2023 that the group took hostages and expressed hope that the kidnappings would ensure the release of “all” Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.

“We managed to kill and capture many Israeli soldiers,” said Hamas deputy chief Saleh al-Arouri. “Our detainees in [Israeli] prisons, their freedom is looming large. What we have in our hands will release all our prisoners. The longer fighting continues, the higher the number of prisoners will become.”

But the answer to why the attack was launched on Israel perhaps lies in the group’s past, in how Tel Aviv or the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood influenced the genesis of the group to control the Palestinian sphere of influence before it eventually became powerful enough to outgrow its creators.



October 7


Fighters from the Palestinian group Hamas attacked Israeli towns on Oct 7, 2023, killing and capturing scores of civilians and soldiers in a surprise assault.

The worst attack on Israel for decades unleashed a conflict that both sides vowed to escalate. According to the Rand Corporation, a US-based think tank, at least 1,200 Israelis were killed on October 7, with 250 others taken hostage and moved to the Gaza Strip.

Meanwhile, in retaliatory airstrikes that began the same day, Palestinian health officials reported that more than 230 people were killed and 1,600 were wounded in the Gaza Strip. That number has since ballooned to 42,847 fatalities as of October 24, 2024.

Tel Aviv was enraged as Israelis had been taken hostage, and the country’s self-proclaimed sovereignty was once again challenged. Israeli commanders and intelligence chiefs have since resigned over their failure to prevent the attack.


A man runs on a road as fire burns after rockets were launched from the Gaza Strip, in Ashkelon, Israel October 7, 2023. — Reuters/Dawn

However, it must be noted that in the immediate aftermath, much of what was reported on October 7 had been exaggerated. For example, reports of mass rapes carried out by Hamas remain unsubstantiated or have been proven outright false.

Moreover, the most remote criticism of Israel’s conduct will have one branded as a Hamas sympathiser or, worse, antisemitic.

In his 2024 paper ‘Orientalism and the Discourse on Israel/Palestine’, Marcel Wegner argues that Israel portrays October 7 “as another chapter of endless Jewish suffering” and in doing so, is blurring the line between religion and state policy.

“If one argues this to be the case, it leaves no space for nuance in the discourse,” Wegner writes, adding that Israel’s narrative “creates a hegemonic discourse that is incontestable”.

What is Hamas?


A cursory glance at the group will lead you to believe that it is another in a long line of keffiyeh-wearing Palestinian freedom fighters, challenging the colonial oppressor. However, looking at the group’s origins shows that they were created to serve a different political interest.

The group was founded by Palestinian cleric Sheikh Ahmed Yassin in 1987 during the First Intifada (Arabic for uprising), according to Hamas themselves, to fight the Israeli forces that occupied Gaza at the time.

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), an independent nonprofit organisation, states, “Hamas is a militant movement that has controlled the Gaza Strip for nearly two decades.”


Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Ismail Haniyeh in a file photo from 2003. — Reuters/File

Politically, Hamas’ main rival is the Fatah party, which dominates the Palestinian Authority in the occupied West Bank. Since 2007, Hamas has been the de facto governing party in the Gaza Strip after they won the 2006 Legislative Elections. According to Al Jazeera, Fatah refused to recognise the vote and Hamas took over the enclave following a brief conflict.

To this day, reconciliations remain unfinalised, though both parties have come together as a result of the Israeli military offensive. It is noteworthy that Fatah has formally renounced the use of violence, unlike its rival.

Iran entered the picture after its Islamic Revolution in 1979 and according to the United States Institute for Peace (Usip) — a think tank founded by the US Congress — “Hamas and Iran both wanted to see Israel replaced by the Islamic state of Palestine.”

Despite hailing from different sects, both actors had shared interests, with Ayatollah Khomeini pledging $30 million annually to the group in financial support, Usip states. Israel and its allies allege Iranian backing for Hamas continues to this day.


Palestinian school girls returning home from classes pass a line of Arab men being frisked by Israeli soldiers in the Gaza Strip in this photo from 1986. — Reuters/File

According to a 2012 paper by Jean-Pierre Filiu, a professor of Middle East studies at Paris’ prestigious Sciences Po University, there are two “interpretations” of the origins of Hamas.

In the first, Hamas was created in December 1987, but its roots as an extension of the Muslim Brotherhood in Gaza date as far back as 1946.

Filiu argues that the second interpretation “basically depicts Hamas as a ‘golem,’ a creature in Jewish folklore fashioned from mud and made animate who ultimately escapes his master” — effectively saying that they are a creation of Israel.

Even the group’s name is rooted in both Hebrew and Arabic — in Arabic, it means “zeal” and is an acronym for the Islamic Resistance Movement, while in Hebrew, it translates to “violence”.

The offshoot

Yassin, who was killed in 2004 by an Israeli strike while leaving a mosque, had studied in Egypt and accepted the teachings of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s oldest and largest Islamic organisation, according to the BBC.

The Council on Foreign Relations states that Yassin established Hamas “as the Brotherhood’s political arm in Gaza” in 1987, adding that its “purpose was to engage in violence against Israelis as a means of restoring Palestinian backing for the Brotherhood.”

The group set out its principles in a charter in 1988, calling for the destruction of Israel. However in recent years, to moderate its image, it set out a new charter, which focused more on establishing a Palestinian state, though it does not recognise Israel.

“Palestine is a land that was seized by a racist, anti-human and colonial Zionist project that was founded on a false promise (the Balfour Declaration), on recognition of a usurping entity and on imposing a fait accompli by force,” Hamas’ 2017 ‘Document of General Principles and Policies’ reads.

Palestinian Hamas fighters take part in an anti-Israel military parade in Gaza City August 26, 2015. — Reuters/File

Looking at its “official” history, Hamas’ origins seem to reflect its contemporaries — a resistance organisation rising against an oppressive actor.

Its initial charter suggests that the group is much more reliant on violence compared to its contemporaries like Fatah.

Israeli officials insist that the group’s violent nature has influenced their response and hesitance (or outright refusal) to negotiate a peace deal. From the Israeli perspective, Hamas poses an existential threat to its security, especially given that it is receiving training, funding and other forms of aid from its arch-nemesis Iran.

Speaking on ‘The Ezra Klein Show’ on September 20, New Yorker editor David Remnick, said a great deal can be learned about Hamas by looking at their leader, Yahya Sinwar, who has since been killed in an Israeli military operation in Gaza.

A Pulitzer-prize-winning journalist, Remnick has performed “deep, long-form reporting from Israel for decades”, host Klein said on the episode, adding that Remnick has profiled high-profile figures including Yasser Arafat, Israeli PM Netanyahu and Sinwar himself.

Remnick described Sinwar as “the most powerful person in Gaza and a decider for Hamas”, adding that he went underground after October 7 2023.

“When he was a student at university … he attached himself to Sheikh Yassin,” Remnick said. “Sinwar found himself appointed … one of the leaders of the Majd” — Hamas’ morality police. … He was jailed in the 80s and remained in Israeli jails for a couple of decades.“

During his incarceration, Sinwar wrote a novel titled ‘The Thorn and the Carnation’. “If you want to know anything about Yahya Sinwar, it is very much worth reading,” Remnick said, saying that the book shows “the roots of his politics and fury”.

“There are long passages about Sinwar and his schoolmates being taken … to visit Israel … including a visit to Jerusalem,” Remnick said. “He asks at one point, rhetorically … who will be our great Saladin?”

In the book, Sinwar was referring to who would lead the Palestinian struggle, Remnick says, suggesting, “Clearly at some level, as I’m reading it, he’s positioning himself as that great leader.”

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar looks on as Hamas supporters take part in an anti-Israel rally over tension in Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa mosque, in this file photo from October 2022. — Reuters

“Sinwar isn’t a figure of extraordinary mystery,” Remnick said. “He grew more aware during his time in prison that hostage-taking was effective,” which explains Hamas’ taking captives on October 7, 2023.

Remnick then talks about the kidnapping of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in 2011. “Israeli society was obsessed with this case,” Remnick said, adding that he was “released for a thousand Palestinian prisoners. One of whom was Yahya Sinwar.”

Remnick’s observation suggests that Sinwar had an impact on Hamas’ modus operandi, especially considering that over 200 Israelis were taken captive during the attack.
The ‘Golem’

While Hamas was formed as an extension of the Muslim Brotherhood, there is evidence that it received substantial enough backing from Israel that it can be considered a “creation” of theirs — Filiu’s “Golem”.

Over time, Israeli officials have admitted the country’s role in propping up Hamas as a counterweight to Fatah and how that plan backfired, leading Hamas to resort to violence.

“Hamas, to my great regret, is Israel’s creation,” says retired Israeli official Avner Cohen in a 2009 interview with The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), terming Hamas an “enormous, stupid mistake”.

Cohen says that Israel “encouraged” Hamas as a counterweight to other nationalist factions, such as the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) and its dominant faction, Fatah.


Former Israeli Religious Affairs Official Avner Cohen in a photo from 2017. — Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey



The WSJ piece adds that Israel “often stood aside” when Hamas and their secular left-wing Palestinian rival Fatah battled, sometimes violently, for influence in both Gaza and the West Bank.

While some Israeli officials have viewed this as a catalyst for Hamas’ rise to power, others have attributed it to the alleged backing of Iran and other actors opposed to Israel.

“Hamas in Gaza was built by Iran as a foundation for power, and is backed through funding, through training and the provision of advanced weapons,” said then-Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert in 2009, according to WSJ.

The WSJ further adds that around Yassin’s arrest in 1984, Cohen sent a report to senior Israeli military and civilian officials in Gaza. He warned that Israel’s policy towards Hamas would allow them to develop into a dangerous force.

“I believe that by continuing to turn away our eyes, our lenient approach to Mujama (Hamas) will in the future harm us. I, therefore, suggest focusing our efforts on finding ways to break up this monster before this reality jumps in our face,” Cohen wrote.

A piece by Mehdi Hasan and Dina Sayedalahmed for The Intercept also cites Brigadier General Yitzhak Segev, who served as Gaza’s military governor in the early 1980s. Segev told a reporter for The New York Times, “The Israeli government gave me a budget… and the military government gives to the mosques.” Like Cohen, Segev stated that the aim was to prop Hamas as a counterweight to Fatah.

In a 2018 video for The Intercept, Hasan acknowledges Hamas’ creation as an arm of the Muslim Brotherhood but states that Egypt had repressed the group in Gaza before 1967. After 1967’s Six-Day War, Israel invaded and occupied the Gaza Strip and, according to Hasan, “they didn’t just turn a blind eye to the Islamists, they encouraged them.”






Hasan adds that Hamas has killed more Israeli civilians than any other group and that their leaders are “viciously anti-Israeli and even anti-semitic in their rhetoric”. He says that “the die was cast for blowback”.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said something similar in January 2024. “Yes, Hamas was financed by the government of Israel in an attempt to weaken the Palestinian Authority led by Fatah,” he said in a speech at the University of Valladolid in Spain, Reuters reported. However, he did not elaborate any further.

There is evidence that Israel has been sending funds to Hamas as late as 2018. In December 2023, Dawn published a report stating that Israel appro­ved the transfer of more than $1 billion from Qatar to Gaza, even though there were intelligence warnings that the group was planning large-scale attacks on Israel.

It is now clear that around the 1970s and 1980s, Hamas was patronised by Israel to divide and rule the occupied Palestinian territories and control the Palestinian sphere of influence.

Furthermore, The Times of Israel reported in 2023 that an Israeli ministry drafted a proposal to transfer Gaza’s 2.3 million people to Egypt’s Sinai peninsula, “drawing condemnation from Palestinians and worsening tensions with Cairo”.

Despite being a “concept paper”, putting it in the context of rhetoric from far-right Israeli government figures shows that vacating the Gaza Strip is one of Tel Aviv’s goals.

Israel’s more extreme elements, like National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, have displayed their contempt and prejudice against Palestinians on record numerous times. In July for example, Ben-Gvir said Palestinian prisoners “should be shot in the head instead of giving them more food”.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich recently called thwarting the creation of a Palestinian state “his life’s mission”. Israeli Ambassador to the UK Tzipi Hotovely said on the UK’s Channel 4 that she has “no empathy” for Palestinians in Gaza.


A combination photo showing Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Israeli Ambassador to the UK Tzipi Hotovely. — Dawn/Reuters

The Intercept states: “To be clear: First, the Israelis helped build up a militant strain of Palestinian political Islam, in the form of Hamas and its Muslim Brotherhood precursors; then, the Israelis switched tack and tried to bomb, besiege, and blockade it out of existence.”

Hamas reflects the fate of many other proxy groups — a state wanted an actor under its control to maintain its sphere of influence or to fight a hostile actor and disrupt theirs.

As with Afghanistan, this plan backfired and Frankenstein’s monster is trying to kill its creator. Thus, one can deduce that Israel’s impetus for prolonging the ongoing conflict is not just to eliminate a threat to its security, but also to rectify a grave error.
One year on

The nature of the October 7 attacks, and the subsequent fighting thereafter, fall in line with Hamas’ behaviour as an organisation. They are the most powerful Palestinian faction out of their contemporaries and have made the most of their regional alliances with Iran and other armed groups to further their goals.

Looking at their origins, it is clear that Israel’s patronage of Hamas contributed to the group’s actions since 1987, as well as why the present conflict is unparalleled in its violence. Their activity was enabled by Israel in the 1970s and 1980s, empowering them as a policy option against the more popular, secular Fatah.


A boy looks on at the site of an Israeli strike on tents sheltering displaced people at Al-Aqsa hospital, where Palestinian Shaban al-Dalou was burnt to death, in Deir Al-Balah on October 15. — Reuters

However, this plan backfired, thanks to a lack of forward-thinking, the group’s innate antisemitism having been born during the first Intifada and the presence of a convenient proxy for Israel’s enemies.

Given the unprecedented nature of this conflict, Hamas may grow even more entrenched in its ideology and possibly return to the initial charter from the 1980s, which in turn would invite an even harsher response from Israel — a vicious cycle that will result in more innocents on both sides getting caught in the crossfire.
Mission accomplished?

Having observed the events of the past year, it can be argued that the aftermath of October 7 is something Hamas neither foresaw nor wanted. Their leadership is dead, the Gaza Strip is in ruins and over 42,000 people have been killed — more if one counts the bodies buried under rubble, or not in one piece. They knew Israel would react — it is doubtful they expected a retaliation to this extent.

The impact of the conflict — the spread of disease, famine and a lack of medical facilities — could act against the group, turning what’s left of their support base in Gaza against them.

On the other hand, if they aimed to destabilise or divide Israel, then they have arguably achieved that goal. Israeli politics are deeply divided, with opposition leaders incessantly calling for Netanyahu’s resignation. Israelis are out on the streets protesting the offensive, demanding the return of the hostages and an immediate ceasefire. A ceasefire, it seems, Netanyahu is unwilling to enact, lest he lose his seat at the head of government.


‘Grip on power’

Netanyahu was embroiled in a corruption scandal before the events of October 7. He was accused of receiving luxury goods and disrupting “investigative and judicial proceedings” and was formally indicted in 2019, according to The New York Times. The trial began in 2020.

According to The Times of Israel, Netanyahu’s corruption trial has been delayed until 2025, having been suspended in October 2023 after the attacks. “The prime minister faces charges of fraud and breach of trust in Case 1000 and Case 2000, and charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in Case 4000,” The Times of Israel adds.

The Israeli Army’s former head of operations, Major General Israel Ziv said that the offensive has become a source of “political stability” for the Israeli PM. For Netanyahu and his government“.

A refusal to cease hostilities amid immense pressure both at home and from abroad, even from some of its staunch allies, is causing Tel Aviv to become a political pressure cooker. Something that works to Hamas’ benefit.

Thursday, October 17, 2024

Israeli weapons of mass destruction are a real-life Frankenstein

Israel's dystopian weapons industry poses a threat to humanity, with the Hezbollah pager attacks setting a dangerous precedent, says Richard Silverstein.

Perspectives
NEW ARAB
Richard Silverstein
14 Oct, 2024



Like a spoiled child, whatever Israel wants, Israel gets,
 writes Richard Silverstein [photo credit: Getty Images]

Israel specialises in weapons of mass destruction.

In the 1990s, Israel pioneered the use of armed drones in warfare and was the first to use exploding cell phones in assassinations. Thirty years later, Israel was among the first to use satellite-operated, AI-guided, autonomous weapons, to assassinate an Iranian nuclear scientist.

Israel has also spearheaded various forms of mass surveillance, including facial recognition and social media data mining. It does so via search algorithms targeting keywords which psychologists and intelligence agents have identified as indicators of radical inclination or concrete plans.

More recently, Israeli agents established an elaborate plan to sabotage a shipment of electronic pagers purchased by Hezbollah.

Thousands of the devices were distributed to their members. When they received a text message generated by the Mossad, they all exploded within an hour of each other. The next day they did the same thing with cell phones. They killed 40 Lebanese including three children. Nearly 4,000 were severely injured, many blinded as a result of eye injuries, as they looked at the messages on the screen.

Related
Unfiltered
Ravale Mohydin

Israel's brazen attack represents the first mass sabotage of everyday communication devices, used by much of the world. It sets an unimaginably dangerous precedent.

Imagine if, in the future, Israel or other states devise ways not just to hack, but to explode all communications devices of major companies such as Google or Apple in a specific country. The result could not only damage overall communications infrastructure but also cost the lives of massive numbers of users.

Israel also has mass cyberwarfare capabilities. It used some of them to sabotage Iran’s nuclear program and hack the communication devices of targeted Palestinians.

It has developed facial recognition technology, compiling databases to collect and analyse images of every Palestinian living in the West Bank.

In doing so, it can track their location, identifying who they meet, where, and when. The foremost military SIGINT entity among global armies, Unit 8200 intercepts every form of communication among Palestinians including email, telephone, texts and phone calls. They are used to recruit Shin Bet informants who spy on their families, neighbours and communities. Israeli intelligence uses such information to assassinate Palestinian resistance leaders.

While Israel gains a momentary advantage or degrades the capability of an enemy — these are tactics, not strategy. They attain a short-term gain instead of a long-term interest.

And to obtain even that small advantage, the costs keep rising. The weapons have to get more powerful, the risks increase, and the death count rises. Meanwhile, Israel grows uglier and more hated.

Israel also relies on old-fashioned military operations. In the past few days, it began what Biden national security officials have falsely labelled a “ground operation” or “limited incursion” into southern Lebanon.

Global media have followed suit. Some are calling it a “targeted operation”. The alleged military goal is the return of 70,000 northern Israeli residents to their homes.

In reality, the invasion will fail to achieve this objective. Despite absorbing blows, Hezbollah still retains 150,000 missiles, some among the most advanced in Iran’s arsenal. They are resisting the military assault on their country and will continue to do so, likely intensifying their resistance.

Israel's 'battle-tested' weapons industry


Israel field tests its weapons against enemies in Palestine, Lebanon and Iran. They provide proof of concept persuading armies, weapons engineers and intelligence agencies throughout the world to purchase them.

In turn, they impose precisely the same regime both inside and outside the country. This in turn fuels a lucrative weapons export market. Israel is ranked 10th in the world regarding the value of such products.

Its innovation in the development of such weapons systems is followed closely by the world’s weapons buyers. The former become products exported to failed states and repressive regimes like Myanmar, South Sudan, UAE, Philippines, etc. which use them to suppress dissent and settle scores with their enemies, just as Israeli does.

Whatever weapons Israel wants, but does not have it obtains from the US.

In the case of the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, US-made F35 warplanes, carried US-made bunker-buster bombs, while there are unconfirmed reports of AWAC planes monitoring the assassination in real-time. All were instrumental in the murder plot.

All the while, the Biden administration uses plausible deniability to excuse it all by claiming Israel didn’t warn the US before it acted.

Either the Pentagon is lying to avoid outrage at its role, or it is telling the truth. The latter would indicate that the US is providing its most lethal munitions without any control or restraints.

This violates US law which calls for using exported weapons under international law. The Leahy Law requires the government to end weapons shipments to regimes found to have violated human rights.

The State Department, tasked with such oversight, has deliberately ignored the findings of multiple agencies that Israel was violating both standards, issuing its statement that Israel is not in violation.

Imagine during WWII, if instead of sending thousands of ships filled with food and weapons to Britain to resist the Nazis, the US decided it was in its interest to send an armada to support Hitler’s invasion of the island and the Holocaust. This is akin to what Biden has done, sending a carrier battle group to the region along with 50,000 troops.

Israel's mad march to war


Biden seems to think this threat will cow Iran from attacking Israel. Apparently, it hasn’t worked. After Israel sent its troops into Lebanon, Iran launched 200 missiles targeting Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. Though Iron Dome intercepted most of them, there are not yet reports concerning any that struck their targets.

Israel has vowed retaliation. We are now in a state of calibrated escalation. Iran could have fired salvos of thousands of missiles. Then Israel would have been justified in a massive response, provoking all-out war. Instead, it fired a smaller number knowing Israel would retaliate in kind.

Though neither side wants to be blamed for starting such a war, Netanyahu has numerous reasons to want one. He is doing everything in his power — from the assassinations of Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Mohammed Deif to the assassination of Nasrallah — to incite such a catastrophic conflict.

He needs these wars to distract from his unpopularity at home and to delay his corruption trial. He also seeks the distinction of being the only prime minister to launch direct attacks on Israel’s foremost regional enemy, Iran and its nuclear program. Netanyahu’s march toward mayhem continues unobstructed.

How can President Biden believe the US can play any role in such a process? We have no relations with Iran. We have refused to engage in talks with even Iran’s moderate leaders. We have proven instrumental in murdering the leader of its primary regional ally.
Related

Losing its leverage, Jordan has become Israel's insurance policy
Perspectives
Benjamin Ashraf

The Biden administration seems either oblivious or uncaring regarding the impact this will have on the country’s status in the Arab and Muslim world.

It is implicated in the genocide in Gaza, which some public health experts estimate to be over 300,000 dead from combat and related causes.

It is an accessory to the assassination of one of the most admired leaders in the Muslim world. There is nothing we would not do for Israel. Why would the Arab world not hate America? Even more than it hated this country before these events.

Returning to Israeli cyberwarfare, regulation of these weapons lags far behind their development and use on the battlefield. Neither the UN nor any country regulates their use, permitting Israel to wreak havoc without any restraint from global regulatory authorities. It can develop and manufacture ever more lethal weapons with neither ethical nor legal limits.

Further, international bodies established to prosecute war crimes such as the International Criminal Court and International Court of Justice seem powerless to hold Israel accountable for the use of these weapons of mass mayhem. In the former case, its judges failed to issue arrest warrants for Israel’s Prime Minister and Defense Minister. Despite findings by the ICJ that Israel was committing genocide, it has no enforcement mechanism and Israel has ignored the findings.

The story of Frankenstein by Mary Shelley mirrors the medieval Jewish golem myth. The latter recounted a pogrom in Prague in which the Jews were attacked by their Christian neighbours. The city’s rabbi created a huge creature out of clay to protect the Jews. He succeeded and the violence stopped. But in doing so the rabbi lost control of the protector of the Jews. He ran amok causing even more danger for them.

To end it, the rabbi destroyed him by turning him back into clay. Israel is a golem wreaking havoc in the Middle East and beyond. Unfortunately, there seems to be no one who can control it or turn it back into clay.

Richard Silverstein writes the Tikun Olam blog and is a freelance journalist specialising in exposing secrets of the Israeli national security state. He campaigns against opacity and the negative impact of Israeli military censorship.
Follow him on Twitter: @richards1052


Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The New Arab, its editorial board or staff.

Thursday, July 18, 2024

Israel’s Unseen Second Front

While the war in Gaza rages on, militant Jewish settlers are pushing further into the Palestinian heartland



AUTHOR
Edo Konrad
NEWS | 07/11/2024
Scenes of devastation in the village of Duma in the West Bank following a raid by unknown assailants, 12 May 2024.Photo: Flash90 / Nasser Ishtayeh

LONG READ

On 28 February 2024, some four months into Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip, dozens of young Israeli settlers saw an opportunity to set a precedent. Nearly 20 years after Ariel Sharon’s government evacuated the Jewish settlements from Gaza, a small number of them — some reportedly carrying construction materials, while at least two were armed with the kind of rifles used by the military — stormed the Erez Crossing in a first attempt to rebuild Jewish settlements.


Edo Konrad is a journalist and the former editor-in-chief of +972 Magazine.


“We came here [because] we wanted to go home. I live in a community of deportees from Gush Katif, and we wanted to go back”, one 18-year-old settler told Local Call. “I would like the government to understand [what] the majority of the people already understood: We are here. It is ours … We need to go to Gaza, destroy all the terror there, and build there ourselves”, said another.

The settlers were successful — at least momentarily. They managed to erect a makeshift outpost, not unlike the kind seen in the occupied West Bank, which they named Nisanit Hachadasha (“New Nisanit”) after one of the settlements of Gush Katif, the Jewish settlement bloc that was evacuated as part of the 2005 disengagement plan. But unlike the disengagement, in which police and soldiers forcibly removed 9,000 settlers from a colony built in the heart of the Palestinian civilian population, this time Israeli security forces stood nearby and provided protection as the settlers swarmed. It would take several hours before the police arrived to remove them.

To the untrained eye, Nisanit Hachadasha might appear as a form of marginal political theatre, not to be taken too seriously. But the event in many ways marked the culmination of a vision that has been percolating among the settler movement for decades — one that could only be realized through a paradigm-shifting explosion of violence such as all-out war or ethnic cleansing, permanently thwarting the establishment of a Palestinian state and turning the settlers into the masters of the land.

Israel’s unprecedented onslaught and devastation in the Gaza Strip, which came as a response to the gruesome Hamas attacks on Southern Israel and the capturing of hundreds of hostages on 7 October, has provided the settlers with precisely such an explosion. While the mood among mainstream Israeli society is one of painful sacrifice for a “necessary” and “just” war of defence, the settlers and their representatives in the Knesset have had a hard time disguising their celebratory mood. They believe their moment to make history has come. Indeed, the question is not only whether they will succeed, but what kind of threat potential failure could pose to their entire project.
National Religious Revanchism

On the morning of 7 October, as the horrors of the Hamas attacks were becoming clearer (1,200 Israelis killed, 252 hostages taken, and half-a-dozen kibbutzim destroyed), Israel’s Settlements and National Projects Minister Orit Strock spoke before the cabinet. “First of all, happy holiday”, the far-right settler reportedly said at the top of her remarks, referring to the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah. “A happy holiday this will not be”, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shot back, reflecting the gap between him and the fundamentalist partners key to holding his government together.

As the war dragged on, Strock would come to symbolize what can only be described as a defiant glee that has characterized the National Religious movement since the November 2022 elections brought them to the height of their power, and certainly since the beginning of the war. In May 2024, Strock openly opposed the “terrible” ceasefire agreement, the approval of which would be tantamount to a betrayal of IDF soldiers and Israel’s war aims. In response to American efforts to negotiate a ceasefire, Strock said that the US “does not deserve to be called a friend of the State of Israel”. In early July, she told a group of settlers that Israel had entered a “miraculous” era — the miracle in question being settlement expansion.

She is by no means alone, and the settler movement is certainly not the only segment of Israeli society agitating for more carnage. The entire right wing, from Netanyahu’s allies in the media to right-wing Haredi journalists, is veritably euphoric, joyfully calling for the expulsion of Palestinians and the annihilation of Gaza as we know it.

That euphoria extends deep into mainstream Israeli society, which was shocked by the sheer brutality of Hamas’s attack, enraged by the government and army’s inability to prevent it, and now feels abandoned and betrayed by the world during the Jewish state’s most difficult hours. In this atmosphere, genocidal rap songs have topped the pop charts, large-scale civilian initiatives have been deployed to justify Israel’s ruthlessness, artists who were once associated with multiculturalism have embraced far-right talking points, calls to end the war are often seen as tantamount to treason, and anti-government protests have not reached anywhere near the numbers seen during the movement against the right-wing judicial coup last year.

Were it not for the fracturing of the Israeli public over Netanyahu’s political motivations for quashing any ceasefire deal and the army’s outwardly stated failure to neither defeat Hamas nor rescue the vast majority of hostages through military operations, it is not hard to imagine that the centre and much of the centre-left would still support Netanyahu’s deliberately vague goal of “total victory”. Yet since 7 October, Religious Zionists (the ideology of the vast majority of West Bank settlers) have been the most assiduous supporters of the war and its potential for remaking the country, both demographically and geographically.



Israeli security forces guard as Jews tour the West Bank city of Hebron, 29 June 2024.Photo: Flash90/Wisam Hashlamoun


Religious Rabbis have publicly and unashamedly celebrated the war and the possibilities it opens up for remaking the political order. Settler media outlets such as the radical TV channel Arutz 7 and the more dignified weekly Makor Rishon, widely regarded as the mouthpiece of the settler elite, have been almost unanimous in their celebratory demands for the permanent re-occupation and re-settlement of Gaza. Religious soldiers fighting in the strip — particularly “Hardalim”, far-right nationalists whose political beliefs are imbued with religious zealotry — have used the current war to remake the army in their image and influence soldiers with extremist rhetoric.

Moshe Feiglin, a far-right settler and former member of Knesset for the ruling Likud party, invoked Adolf Hitler while describing what should be done to Palestinians in Gaza. Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s finance minister and one of the most powerful figures in the current government, has publicly demanded permanent military control of Gaza, rejected any accountability for the events of 7 October, and told hostage families that any deal with Hamas to bring back their loved ones would be akin to “collective suicide”.

In Gaza, meanwhile, dozens of soldiers in the Gaza Strip, including officers, have been documented waving orange flags associated with the movement to resettle Gush Katif, displaying posters announcing the renewal of settlements, or calling for the re-establishment of Jewish communities there.


Never have they had this kind of influence over Israeli politics, and Netanyahu is afraid of them bringing down the government, which gives them enormous influence and power to keep the war going.

It is no surprise, then, that the attempt to build a settlement outpost in northern Gaza came only one month after 15 members of the governing coalition, including Smotrich, participated in the “Conference for Israel’s Victory” in Jerusalem, where they demanded the Israeli government promote the re-establishment of settlements in the Gaza Strip. At a time when Israeli soldier casualties were piling up in Gaza, settler leaders were filmed ecstatically dancing. On the wall of the conference hall, a giant map of Gaza could be seen dotted with the locations of potential new settlements to be built on the ruins of cities, villages, and refugee camps. What would happen to the 2 million Palestinians living in the strip was not discussed. A similar conference promoting the settlement of southern Lebanon took place in mid-June.

Within months, the so-called Lobby for the Settlement of the Gaza Strip held its first meeting in the Knesset, where Likud MK Tzvika Fogel called on Israel to “turn Shifa Hospital into a 7 October museum” and Religious Zionist Party member Zvi Sukkot, chairman of the Knesset Subcommittee for Judea and Samaria [West Bank], pledged that one day “our children will play in the streets of Gaza”.

On the ground, settlers and other right-wingers have channelled their power into blocking humanitarian aid trucks and at times destroying cargo to prevent their passage into the Gaza Strip, where the UN says there is an ongoing “full-blown famine”. In some of these cases, police officers simply looked on, doing nothing to stop them.

For Meron Rapoport, a veteran Israeli journalist and editor at Local Call, the settler right’s ecstasy should be taken with a grain of salt. Despite the warmongering and ongoing radicalization, the Israeli public is not interested in sending its children to protect messianic settlers in Gaza. “On the one hand, the influence of the settlers is at its height”, says Rapoport. “Never have they had this kind of influence over Israeli politics, and Netanyahu is afraid of them bringing down the government, which gives them enormous influence and power to keep the war going.” On the other hand, he says, the mainstream Israeli public remains “completely unwelcoming” to the settlers’ messianic vision, particularly after nine months of mass protests against the far right’s attempts to ram through a judicial coup that would neuter the power of Israel’s legal institutions and make it exceedingly difficult to dislodge the Right from power.

According to Rapoport, the settlers know that Israel will not expel the Palestinians from Gaza wholesale, but rather are content with levelling the area and rendering it unliveable, which he says will catalyse a Palestinian exodus. “They believe Israel will create such horrible conditions in Gaza in order to keep the chaos going. Knowing how things work in the West Bank, the settlers believe that the moment the army controls all of Gaza, they will be able to establish communities. If there is no ceasefire deal, and we’re going toward a long war of attrition in Gaza, there is a high likelihood of that happening.”

Nevertheless, he believes the settlers are facing a pivotal moment.


The Right understands that after the war, whenever that will be, the main issue will be the Palestinians after years that they were ignored by the entire world. The settlers fear that a potential future government led by Benny Gantz [Netanyahu’s chief political rival] will accept the premise of a two-state solution, flushing 50 years of work down the drain. They were a step away from realizing God’s plan of emptying the land of its non-Jewish inhabitants and returning it to its “original owners”, and all of a sudden the country is heading toward a conversation on two states? This is the greatest threat to their political project and they won’t have it.
A Long Time Coming

To understand the settler movement in 2024, one must go back not only to its roots, but to the traumas that continue to haunt it today. Up until 1967, the National Religious or Religious Zionist movement was small and relatively powerless, adjoining the ruling Labour Zionist Mapai party that dominated Israel’s political, economic, and cultural order in the early years of the state. But Israel’s breakneck victory during the 1967 War and subsequent occupation of the West Bank, Gaza, East Jerusalem, the Golan Heights, and the Sinai Peninsula — tripling the size of the state — injected a sense of euphoria into the national consciousness. This was particularly true of the National Religious community, which viewed the West Bank, which it calls “Judea and Samaria”, as the cradle of Jewish civilization and the historical heartland of the Jewish people.

The newly occupied territories and their residents were placed under military rule. While East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights were illegally annexed, Israel maintained what would come to resemble a military dictatorship over the West Bank and Gaza. Debates over the fate of the territories kicked off almost immediately after the occupation began, along with government plans to thin out the population and put down any attempted rebellion by the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who had suddenly come under an Israeli administration that denied them basic human and civil rights.

In the immediate aftermath of the war, the Israeli government under Prime Minister Levi Eshkol hesitated to endorse widespread settlement in the Occupied Territories, fearing international backlash for violating the Fourth Geneva Convention would complicate prospects for peace negotiations. Yet, as the settler population grew and established a significant presence in key areas, subsequent governments adopted more accommodating policies, providing incentives and support for settlement expansion.

While most of the first settlements in the Occupied Territories were built by secular Jews who identified with the Israeli Left, it was not long before the National Religious community began to organize itself for colonization. One of the earliest and most influential settler organizations was Gush Emunim, founded in 1974, which advocated for the establishment of Jewish communities in the heart of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Gush Emunim attracted support from Religious Zionists who saw settlement as a fulfilment of biblical prophecy and a means to strengthen Israel’s hold on the new territories.

The settler movement expanded rapidly across the Occupied Territories throughout the 1970s and 1980s, especially after the Likud party was elected in 1977, often with government approval and financial assistance. The new settlements ranged from small outposts to large urban developments, transforming the demographic and geographic landscape of the West Bank and Gaza. By the end of the 1980s, 200,000 Israeli Jews lived in dozens of settlements and outposts across the Occupied Territories.


The 2005 disengagement represented a watershed moment — and betrayal — for the movement, one that it has been hell-bent on rectifying ever since.

The Oslo Accords signed between 1993 and 1995 posed a significant challenge to the settler movement, as Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) agreed, at least on paper, to Palestinian self-rule and Israeli withdrawal from large portions of the Occupied Territories. While some settlers and far-right nationalists opposed the peace process and engaged in acts of violence, including the assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, others reluctantly accepted the prospect of evacuation from certain areas in exchange for the promise of enhanced security and normalized relations. Nevertheless, the failure of the Camp David Summit in 2000 and the outbreak of the Second Intifada soon fuelled a resurgence of settler activism and expansionism.

The 2005 disengagement, when Israel unilaterally withdrew its military and evacuated 9,000 Jewish settlers from the Gaza Strip, represented a watershed moment — and betrayal — for the movement, one that it has been hell-bent on rectifying ever since. “The disengagement was a slap in the face. It was the first major crisis facing the settlement movement, particularly because it came from the Right rather than the Left”, says Aviad Houminer-Rosenblum, deputy director-general of the Berl Katznelson Center and a member of the Faithful Left movement. “After they were evacuated, the settlers began to turn inward and speak directly to the Israeli public — to ingratiate themselves with the mainstream.”

The new, mainstreamed settler movement, Houminer-Rosenblum recounts, sought to undo its image as an elitist, Ashkenazi-dominated, pampered segment of the population, and instead sought to form common cause with the Likud heartland, much of which is comprised of working- and middle-class Mizrahim [Israeli Jews who hail from Arab or Muslim countries, as opposed to Ashkenazim, or Eastern European Jews, who have historically comprised the Israeli upper classes]. “This allowed the settler movement to speak to ordinary secular people without having to use the language of messianism, redemption, or religious nationalism.”

Within just a few years, fundamentalist religious communities called “Torah nuclei” began sprouting up in Israeli cities and towns with relatively low religious populations, or in places where Jews and Palestinians live side-by-side, such as so-called “mixed cities”. The first victim of the intercommunal violence in May 2021 was a Palestinian resident of the city of Lod, allegedly shot dead by a member of the city’s Torah nucleus.

The killing — along with attempted expulsions of Palestinians from Jerusalem’s Sheikh Jarrah neighbourhood, attacks against worshippers at Al-Aqsa Mosque, and Hamas rocket fire from Gaza — sparked days of deadly riots and lynchings between Israeli Jews and Palestinians. Images of settlers being bused in from the West Bank to Lod, where they attacked Palestinian residents, were proof enough that Religious Zionism’s post-disengagement mission of “settling in the hearts” of the Israeli mainstream went hand-in-hand with a kind of violence Palestinians have been familiar with since the early days of the Zionist project.

Children playing in the Bedouin village of Ras Al-Auja north of Jericho in the West Bank, where residents were attacked by Jewish settlers and a number of sheep were stolen, 23 June 2024.Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire


“The disengagement was the big wound, and today the war and the desire to resettle Gaza is the attempt to close that circle”, Houminer-Rosenblum says.

I would be surprised if there isn’t 90-percent support among the settler movement for resettling Gaza. While the Israeli centre-left feels that its dream has been destroyed, the settlement movement feels the opposite. It is saying, “We were right all along, and now we have the opportunity to rectify the situation.” If you look at [settler] media outlets, there is wall-to-wall support for it.

By 2023, close to 520,000 settlers reportedly lived in the West Bank alone, with another 200,000 in Jewish settlements in East Jerusalem, the city Palestinians claim as their future capital. Regardless of whether they will succeed or not, the settlers’ ambitions go much further than simply re-establishing Gush Katif: they want to import West Bank-style annexation, where settler-army collusion has all but become official state policy, colonization of Palestinian land is at an all-time high, and Palestinians are left almost completely defenceless.
Escalation on All Fronts

On 23 June, the New York Times published a disturbing report that hardly made a dent in the Israeli press. According to the piece, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who also serves as a minister in the Defence Ministry with broad powers over the West Bank, was recorded at a recent meeting of settler leaders and supporters stating that the government was engaged in a secret effort to transfer more authority from the military — which has officially run the West Bank since 1967 — to the Civil Administration, the body that effectively runs the day-to-day of the occupation. In effect, this constitutes another step toward annexation and cementing formal control of the territory.

Smotrich, who has called for settling 1 million new Jews in the West Bank, is the most powerful proponent of annexation and mass expulsion of Palestinians in a far-right government that views 7 October as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to bury any possibility of establishing an independent Palestinian state. Yet if Smotrich sought to explode that possibility through politics, settlers on the ground in the West Bank have been just as effective.

Since 7 October, the West Bank has seen a surge of settler violence against Palestinians, particularly in Area C, which is under full military control. Palestinian officials say Israeli troops and settlers have killed at least 550 Palestinians in the West Bank since the war in Gaza began. According to Yesh Din, an Israeli human rights group that tracks violence against Palestinians, settlers have expelled at least 15 Palestinian communities totalling 800 Palestinian families from their villages.

Shahd Fahoum, a data coordinator at Yesh Din, says that in the past, soldiers assigned to protect the Palestinians would stand idly by during settler attacks. But over the last years, she says, they either actively take part in joint militias, or, particularly after 7 October, are deployed as reservists in so-called “regional defence battalions”, part of an emergency call-up that allows settlers to guard their own settlements in a time of war. Under the cover of war, members of these battalions are reportedly engaging in violence, threats, and destruction of property.

Fahoum explains how the settlers’ complete militarization and the creation of joint militias has facilitated unbridled violence against Palestinians.


Today, the soldiers enter villages and towns, and start attacking Palestinians with stones and rocks. Sometimes they set fires to cars. A lot of the time, if people in the villages come to help, the soldiers will open fire at Palestinians. Sometimes the soldiers and settlers come together. Sometimes the settlers come alone and then the soldiers attack the Palestinians who come to defend their village. The Israeli media will inevitably label this as “clashes between Palestinians and security forces”, which completely erases the reality on the ground.

Law enforcement against settler violence is almost non-existent.


You see it in the numbers. In 2023, only 6.6 percent of settlers who had cases opened against them were indicted, down from around 8 percent in the past few years. When it comes to conviction, it’s even lower. When you look at the sentences of the convicted settlers, you will rarely find an acceptable sentence in proportion to the attack. Usually its community service, or time served — a slap on the wrist.

For Fahoum, the lack of law enforcement is a deliberate feature of Israeli rule over Palestinians. “We talk a lot about settler violence as if it is the problem, but it is a symptom of the problem — the real issue is the occupation and settler colonialism. The state itself sees its settlers as a good thing for its expansionist ambitions, so it makes sense that there is less law enforcement against them.”

Like Fahoum, Hagar Shezaf, West Bank correspondent for Haaretz, sees the current surge of settler violence as the culmination of a years-long process, set in motion before this government even came into power. “When I started reporting from the West Bank in 2019, the general feeling was that few people cared about what was happening in the Occupied Territories”, Shezaf says. “We were seeing the steady growth of outposts, but there was a sense that the entire enterprise was totally normalized.”

But by mid-2021, when Netanyahu was replaced by the so-called “government of change” led by Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, and Benny Gantz, things had begun to shift. First, she says, came the building of Evyatar, a wildcat settlement outpost erected near the Palestinian village of Beita, which launched a protracted struggle that led to the killing of ten residents at the hands of Israeli soldiers. The settlers of Evyatar ultimately agreed to abandon the outpost, but left their structures intact. Even today, a group of soldiers continues to guard the empty buildings, laying the groundwork for the settlers’ return.


The last 25 years have seen the steep decline of any real political challenge to the settlers’ supremacy in Israeli politics.

Shezaf also notes that Gantz, who served as defence minister at the time, effectively allowed settlers to permanently return to Homesh — one of four West Bank settlements evacuated during the 2005 disengagement, and which settlers have been trying to re-establish ever since — following the killing of a settler by Palestinian gunmen in the area in December 2021. By May 2021, Shezaf notes, settlers had taken over senior command positions in the West Bank, and began outwardly proselytizing in ways that were simply not accepted previously.

In the decades after the occupation began in 1967, Israel and the settler movement were able to establish a veritable empire that has all but erased the Green Line, swallowed up Palestinian lands, and built a matrix of control through expanding settler-only roads that connect West Bank colonies to what is sometimes known as “Israel proper”. Today, despite international campaigns to boycott the settlements, there is hardly a distinction between the Israeli economy and its settler counterpart.

By the time the current government was elected in November 2022, the path was paved for what anti-occupation group Peace Now called “probably the best year” for the settlement enterprise. Coalition negotiations birthed the most nationalistic, pro-settlement agreements in Israeli history, even going so far as to state that the Jewish people had a “natural right” to the Land of Israel and making promises to expand settlement building and retroactively legalize settlement outposts that were deemed illegal even according to Israeli law. Within months, Smotrich was effectively in charge of the settlements, a record number of housing units were promoted in the West Bank, 15 illegal outposts were advanced, and the government allocated 3 billion Israeli shekels (roughly 740 million euro) for roads in settlements — constituting around 20 percent of the total budget for such investments.
Cracks in the Facade

The last 25 years have seen the steep decline of any real political challenge to the settlers’ supremacy in Israeli politics. The Zionist Left, once the dominant force in Israeli society, collapsed with the breakdown of the Oslo peace process and the spike in Palestinian armed struggle during the Second Intifada in the 2000s. Israel’s entire political spectrum would soon shift to the right.

The Israelis who remained staunch believers in a two-state settlement may still have constituted a numerical majority, but they shifted towards a political centre that prioritized issues such as cost of living, secular-Haredi relations, civil liberties, and combating political corruption. Netanyahu would return to power in 2009 with the help of the Zionist Left and the centre under the pretext of “managing” — rather than solving — the conflict. The occupation, which had been the lynchpin of Israeli politics since 1967, would only return to centre stage following last year’s attacks.

Palestinians and left-wing Israelis do not count on the Israeli public to put an end to Israeli impunity over the settlements. But can the international community still play a role? Since early February, the US, followed by the UK, EU, Canada, and France, have slapped sanctions including asset freezes and travel bans on a number of prominent settlers and settler groups suspected of committing human rights violations.

An Israeli soldier watches over a rising smoke in nearby Duma town near Nablus after it was stormed by Israeli settlers in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, 13 April 2024.Photo: IMAGO / Middle East Images


Michael Schaeffer Omer-Man, director of research for Israel-Palestine at DAWN, says the move comes after years of pressure on the US to take action against settlers, which he calls a consensus issue in the Biden administration. “For a long time, the political will just wasn’t there”, he says, “but that all changed with the new government, which saw National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir ordering the police to not investigate settler violence, Smotrich taking over the Civil Administration, and the near-denial by the Israeli government that there was anything unusual happening on the ground in the West Bank.”

Then came 7 October and the brutal settler attacks that followed. “The White House understood that something had to be done to stop that violence in the West Bank, and this was used as an opportunity”, Schaeffer Omer-Man continues. “So what do they do? They look into their toolbox at a moment when they need to desperately show, somehow, that there are still limits to what Israel can be allowed to do, as well as to what America will support.”

Sanctions, he believes, have opened the floodgates, prompting other countries to follow suit. “The sanctions of settlers could create a backstop that has a lasting effect, especially considering the irreversible political shift happening right now vis-à-vis Israel. It doesn’t matter how many Republicans come into Congress pledging their support for Israel — lines have been crossed, and it’s going to be hard to go back to a place where people aren’t willing to cross them.”


Even if the US tried to force Israel into negotiations over the establishment of a Palestinian state, the facts on the ground are too dangerous to be ignored.

Yet for Lara Friedman, president of the Forum for Middle East Peace, the move is little more than a “valve” for an administration that is facing widespread criticism for its unbridled support for Israel’s war on Gaza. “They want to make it seem like the White House cares about Palestinian lives and international law — but within a certain limit”, Friedman says. “This way, the Biden administration can try to take the pressure off and show they are doing something in the West Bank, while continuing to give cover to Israel’s war.”

That said, Friedman believes that any attempt to draw a bright red line between the settlers and the Israeli army is a futile one.


Anyone who understands how the settlement enterprise works in the West Bank knows that it is co-led, if not actively led, by the Israeli government. Settler violence is state violence, and the fact is that at this point the Americans aren’t even bothering to respond to Israel’s erasure of the Green Line. Going after a few bad apples is good, but if you want to say that this is going to keep the Titanic from sinking, you’d better think again.

Schaeffer Omer-Man is less pessimistic about the potential prospects, saying that the way the sanctions have been written allows for them to encompass local officials, government ministers, military officials, settler organizations — even entire settlements. “They are starting with bad apples, but everyone understands that sanctions programmes tend to ensnare adjacent and connected entities”, he says. “Because the settlement project is a state project, the higher you go up, the closer you get to state institutions. After that, it becomes harder to segregate different parts of the settler economy from that of the Israeli economy.”

“This sanctions programme is not going to end the occupation or the settlements”, Schaeffer Omer-Man adds, “but it is shifting the goalposts in a way that makes a path seem more possible than it did last year. The fact that Israel’s credibility is being challenged is an opening, it doesn’t mean that it will necessarily lead to something, but it’s a crack that didn’t exist before.”

For all its precedent-setting bluster, it is unlikely that sanctions against settlers will be enough to bring about a fundamental shift in the near future, particularly when set against the Biden Administration’s inchoate policies in Gaza, let alone if Donald Trump returns to the White House. Even if the US tried to force Israel into negotiations over the establishment of a Palestinian state — whether by sheer force, by miracle, or by dangling ample incentives à la Saudi normalization — the facts on the ground are too dangerous to be ignored.

The settlement movement today is a sprawling, extraterritorial empire, a golem diligently handcrafted over decades by the most powerful actors in Israeli society. Ultimately, it is a project with too much to lose and everything to win, and any real attempt to undo its power could very well unleash violence between the river and the sea the likes of which the world has never seen.


Sunday, July 07, 2024

VIVE LE GAUCHE


'A lot of hope': French left rejoices at unexpected election win

Elodie Le Maou, Emilie Megnien and Adrien de Calan
Sun, 7 July 2024 at 4:49 pm GMT

French leftists rejoiced at an unexpected win (Dimitar DILKOFF)


As the first projections showed the left in the lead of France's parliamentary polls, against all expectations, a large crowd of left-wing activists erupted in joy in Paris.

"I'm really happy, there's this crazy energy and I'm getting the chills," said Marie Delille, a philosophy student, in the capital's Stalingrad Square.

"It feels good right now, but we're still waiting for the final results," she added at the gathering of the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party.


Many French voters had feared the anti-immigration, Eurosceptic National Rally (RN) party would seize the largest portion of parliament's seats.

But early projections put a broad left-wing alliance including LFI ahead in the race with 177 to 198 seats, in front of both President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance with 152 to 169 seats and the RN with 135 to 145.

Nearby, fellow LFI activist Dalil Diab was also visibly moved.

"We're relieved, there's a lot of hope. There's a lot of hope for the future of France, for the left," said the young man who works in transport logistics.

Hugo Chevalley, a history student, was more tempered in his enthusiasm.

"It's a victory, but it's a relative victory," he said, referring to the large chunk of seats the RN is likely to have gained.

"So we have to continue to fight. It's not over... But it's a relief, that's for sure. We weren't expecting it."

Hundreds of supporters of the left-wing New Popular Front also gathered to celebrate in the capital's Republique Square.

"We've won, we've won," members of the crowd chanted under a blue, white and red France flag marked with the words "France is weaved from migrations".

"No to the RN, no to Macron," read one placard held up by a participant.

- 'I won't give up' -

Macron took the gamble to call the elections after the RN trounced his centrist alliance in June 9 European elections.

Three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen had hoped her RN party would go on to win an absolute majority in the national polls and even form a government.

But that dream was dashed after the left and centre rallied together to ensure there was only one anti-RN candidate in most districts.

In another part of Paris, the mood was less festive for the RN, where leader Jordan Bardella accused the president's party and left of "electoral arrangements".

Olivier Mondet, a 64-year-old nurse, was annoyed that so many people had voted against the far right.

"They tell the French people any old thing and they swallow it all up. They're manipulating them," he said.

Cecilia Djennad, 32, said she was disappointed.

"People have been demonising the RN for years. The extreme left plays on people's fear," she said.

But "I won't give up," she added, looking forward to local elections planned for 2026.

Among a group of young party followers dressed in suits and ties for the occasion, history student Noah Ludon also remained optimistic.

"The RN is a high-speed train. Our voters are increasing," he said.

"Victory will come next time."

burs-adc/ah/sjw/imm

French leftist leader Melenchon says left 'ready to govern'

AFP
Sun, 7 July 2024 

Melenchon was jubilant over the result (Sameer Al-Doumy)

The French left is "ready to govern", divisive hard-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon said Sunday, after predictions showed a broad left-wing alliance could be the largest group in parliament ahead of the far right.

"Our people have clearly rejected the worst-case scenario," said the three-time presidential candidate of the France Unbowed (LFI) party.

Leftist parties including LFI, the Socialist Party, the Greens and the Communist Party joined forces last month to form the New Popular Front (NFP) after President Emmanuel Macron called snap polls.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal "has to go... The New Popular Front is ready to govern", Melenchon said.

It is unclear who might be the alliance's top candidate to be prime minister, with Melenchon a divisive figure even among some supporters of his own party.

Within Melenchon's party, LFI lawmaker Clementine Autain called on the NFP alliance to gather on Monday to decide on a suitable candidate for prime minister.

The alliance, "in all its diversity", needed "to decide on a balance point to be able to govern", she said, adding neither former Socialist president Francois Hollande nor Melenchon would do.

The leader of the Socialist Party (PS) Olivier Faure urged "democracy" within the left-wing alliance so they could work together.

"To move forward together we need democracy within our ranks," he said.

"No outside remarks will come and impose themselves on us," he said in a thinly veiled criticism of Melenchon.

- 'Melenchon... cannot govern' -


Raphael Glucksmann, co-president of the smaller pro-European Place Publique party in the alliance, said everyone was going to have to "behave like adults".

In the projections, "we're ahead, but in a divided parliament... so people are going to have to behave like adults," he said.

"People are going to have to talk to each other."

Communist leader Fabien Roussel, who lost his seat in the first round, said the left would rise up to the task ahead.

"The French have asked us to succeed. And we accept that challenge," he said.

Marine Tondelier, the 37-year-old leader of the Greens, said it was too early to start suggesting the name of a prime minister.

But "we will rule," she said.

Macron made the gamble of calling the parliamentary polls three years early after the far right trounced his centrist allies in European elections.

Stephane Sejourne, the secretary-general of Macron's Renaissance party who has been foreign minister, won a seat in Sunday's polls.

It is "obvious... Melenchon and a certain number of his allies cannot govern France", he said.

"The lawmakers from the centrist bloc will ensure this in parliament."

bur-ah/sjw/imm


French voters deliver a win for the left, a blow for Le Pen and a hung parliament

Updated Sun, 7 July 2024 
By Juliette Jabkhiro, Layli Foroudi and Zhifan Liu

PARIS (Reuters) -France faced potential political deadlock after elections on Sunday threw up a hung parliament, with a leftist alliance unexpectedly taking the top spot but no group winning a majority.

Voters delivered a major setback for Marine Le Pen's nationalist, eurosceptic National Rally (RN), which opinion polls had predicted would win the second-round ballot but ended up in the third spot, according to pollsters' projections.

The results were also a blow for centrist President Emmanuel Macron, who called the snap election to clarify the political landscape after his ticket took a battering at the hands of the RN in European Parliament elections last month.

He ended up with a hugely fragmented parliament, in what is set to weaken France's role in the European Union and elsewhere abroad and make it hard for anyone to push through a domestic agenda.

The election will leave parliament divided in three big groups - the left, centrists, and the far right - with hugely different platforms and no tradition at all of working together.

What comes next is uncertain.

The leftist New Popular Front (NFP) alliance, which wants to cap prices of essential goods like fuel and food, raise the minimum wage to a net 1,600 euros ($1,732) per month, hike wages for public sector workers and impose a wealth tax, immediately said it wanted to govern.

"The will of the people must be strictly respected ... the president must invite the New Popular Front to govern," said hard-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon.

The RN has worked under Le Pen to shed a historic reputation for racism and antisemitism but many in French society still view its France-first stance and surging popularity with alarm.

There were hugs, screams of joy and tears of relief at the left's gathering in Paris when the voting projections were announced.

Republique square in central Paris filled with crowds and a party atmosphere, with leftwing supporters playing drums, lighting flares, and chanting "We’ve won! We’ve won!"

"I'm relieved. As a French-Moroccan, a doctor, an ecologist activist, what the far right was proposing to do as a government was craziness," said 34-year-old Hafsah Hachad.

The awkward leftist alliance, which the hard left, Greens and Socialists hastily put together before the vote, was far from having an absolute majority of 289 seats in the 577-seat assembly.

Official results were trickling in, with the results from most, if not all, constituencies likely in the early hours of Monday. Polling agencies - which are generally accurate - forecast the left would get 184-198 seats, Macron's centrist alliance 160-169 and the RN and its allies 135-143.

The euro fell on Sunday after the vote projections were announced.

"We should get a brief respite in the market ... because we're not seeing an extremist RN majority take place, but it's likely to lead to political gridlock at least until the autumn of 2025," said Aneeka Gupta, macroeconomic research director at WisdomTree.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said he would hand in his resignation on Monday but would stay on in a care-taking capacity as long as needed.

'DIVIDED'

A key question is whether the leftist alliance will stay united and agree on what course to take.

Melenchon, leader of the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI), ruled out a broad coalition of parties of different stripes.

Raphael Glucksmann, from the Socialist Party, urged his alliance partners to act like "grown-ups."

"We're ahead, but we're in a divided parliament," he said. "We're going to have to talk, to discuss, to engage in dialogue."

The constitution does not oblige Macron to ask the leftist group to form a government, though that would be the usual step as it is the biggest group in parliament.

In Macron's entourage, there was no indication of his next move.

"The question we're going to have to ask ourselves tonight and in the coming days is: which coalition is capable of reaching the 289 seats to govern?", one person close to him told Reuters.

Some in his alliance, including former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, envisaged a broad cross-party alliance but said it could not include the far-left France Unbowed.

RN DISAPPOINTMENT

For the RN, the result was a far cry from weeks during which opinion polls consistently projected it would win comfortably.

The left and centrist alliances cooperated after the first round of voting last week by pulling scores of candidates from three-way races to build a unified anti-RN vote.

In his first reaction, RN leader Jordan Bardella called the cooperation between anti-RN forces a "disgraceful alliance" that he said would paralyze France.

Le Pen, who will be the party's candidate for the 2027 presidential election, said however that Sunday's ballot, in which the RN made major gains compared with previous elections, had sown the seeds for the future.

"Our victory has been merely delayed," she said.

Voters punished Macron and his ruling alliance for a cost of living crisis and failing public services, as well as over immigration and security.

Le Pen and her party tapped into those grievances, spreading their appeal way beyond their traditional strongholds along the Mediterranean coast and in the country's northern rust belt, but it was not enough to win power.

($1 = 0.9236 euros)

(Reporting by Tassilo Hummel, Gabriel Stargardter, Sudip Kar Gupta, Michel Rose, Elizabeth Pineau, Blandine Henault, Zhifan Liu, Sybille de La Hamaide, Richard Lough, Dominique Vidalon, Benoit Van Overstraeten; Writing by Ingrid MelanderEditing by Gavin Jones and Frances Kerry)


National Rally pushed into third place in French elections as left-wing coalition comes out on top
Euronews
Sun, 7 July 2024 at 8:36 pm GMT

National Rally pushed into third place in French elections as left-wing coalition comes out on top

A coalition of the French left has won the most seats in the second round of high-stakes legislative elections, beating back the far-right surge but failing to win an outright majority.

According to the final results, the left-wing New Popular Front alliance, formed just three weeks ago, has won 182 seats.

289 seats are needed for a majority in the 577-seat National Assembly.

President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Ensemble (Together) coalition came in second with 168 while the far-right National Rally, widely tipped to win after coming out on top in the first round, finished with 143 seats.

After the first results were published shortly after polls closed, National Rally president Jordan Bardella slammed what he called "the alliance of dishonour" and said they were throwing France to the extreme left.


National Rally president Jordan Bardella delivers a speech in Paris after the second round of the legislative election, July 7, 2024 - Louise Delmotte/Copyright 2024 The AP. All rights reserved.

"Denying millions of French people the chance to see their ideas brought to power will never be a viable destiny for France. Tonight, by deliberately taking it upon himself to paralyse our institutions, Emmanuel Macron has pushed the country towards uncertainty and instability," he told supporters in Paris.

National Rally party leader Marine Le Pen, who intends to run in the 2027 presidential race, said the results meant France would be "deadlocked".

"It's unfortunate, we will lose another year, another year of illegal immigration, another year of purchasing power loss, another year of insecurity exploding in our country. But if that's what it takes, well, then that’s what it takes," she said.

Leader of France Unbowed, the largest party in the winning coalition, Jean-Luc Mélenchon said the result was a clear rejection of the unpopular Emmanuel Macron and that the president should call on the New Popular Front to govern.


France Unbowed party leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon speaks to supporters in Paris after the first results were released, July 7, 2024 - Thomas Padilla/Copyright 2024 The AP. All rights reserved.

"The President must bow and accept this defeat without attempting to circumvent it in any way whatsoever. The Prime Minister must go. He has never received the confidence of the National Assembly. He has just managed the campaign lost by his camp, and he has received a massive popular vote of no confidence," he said.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said on Sunday night that he would tender his resignation to Macron on Monday morning, saying "Tonight, a new era begins."
What happens now?


This is uncharted territory for modern France which has never experienced a parliament with no dominant party.

The weakened Macron could seek a deal with the moderate left to create a joint government, but France has no tradition of this kind of arrangement. A deal could take the form of a loose, informal alliance that would likely be fragile.

And already, leaders of the New Popular Front are pushing Macron to give their alliance the first chance to form a government and propose a prime minister to share power with him.

If he can't make a deal, Macron could name a government of experts unaffiliated with political parties to handle the day-to-day work of keeping one of Europe's largest countries running. But that would require parliamentary approval. And the first session with new members of National Assembly is July 18.

Meanwhile, no clear figure has emerged as a possible prime minister. Macron's office has said he would wait for the new

BELLA CIAO VICHY II
France's far-right suffers setback as voters deny power

NEWS WIRES
Sun, 7 July 2024 



Despite predictions of an outright majority, Marine Le Pen's National Rally suffered a setback, finishing third due to centrist and leftist alliances, exposing internal party issues.

The champagne was on ice at the far-right National Rally's (RN) headquarters, but the celebratory mood swiftly turned to disbelief when the first projected results from Sunday's parliamentary election appeared on TV screens.

For days, Marine Le Pen had confidently predicted that her party would triumph with an outright majority and her protégé Jordan Bardella would be prime minister. Instead, the National Rally was on course to come third, behind a left-wing alliance and President Emmanuel Macron's centrist bloc.


It was undone to a large extent by tactical dealmaking between centrist and leftist opponents, who pulled more than 200 candidates from three-way races to avoid splitting the anti-RN vote.

The projected result brought to a shuddering halt what had appeared to be the far right's relentless rise in France, carefully engineered by Le Pen who had sough to clean up her party's image and tap the grievances of voters angry over living costs, strained public services, and immigration.

To be sure, Le Pen and her party have suffered disappointment before, most recently her 2022 defeat to Macron in the presidential election and have managed to bounce back more strongly than before.

But for now, the outcome was a bitter pill to swallow.

"The results are disappointing, and they don't represent what French people want," said Jocelyn Cousin, 18, who had come to party HQ expecting a victory party.

(REUTERS)






Melenchon Says French Have Voted 'With Their Conscience'
Sun, 7 July 2024 

France’s leftist New Popular Front wins a shock victory – but now the hard part begins

Paul MILLAR
Sun, 7 July 2024 



France's New Popular Front has won the largest number of seats in the final round of snap parliamentary elections, leaving behind the remnants of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist camp and the far-right National Rally trailing in third place. It’s a staggering result for a closely fought election that has left the country without a clear candidate for prime minister – and the hastily assembled broad leftist coalition without an absolute majority that would allow it to push through its ambitious programme.

The dam has held. After finishing first in the opening round of France’s legislative elections, the far-right National Rally (RN) is trailing third in the final round, estimated by Ipsos Talan to have won between 138 and 145 seats in the National Assembly alongside a splinter group of renegade conservatives from Les Républicains. Marine Le Pen’s party needed 289 seats to win an absolute majority in the 577-seat lower house of parliament. They’ve fallen short – far short.

"Our victory has been merely delayed," she said.


French left-wing alliance wins big in unexpected snap election result

RFI
Sun, 7 July 2024 



A left-wing coalition that came together ahead of France’s snap elections has won the most parliamentary seats in the vote, beating the far-right National Rally into third place, according to exit polls. President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance came in second place.

France was on course for a hung parliament in Sunday's election after the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) alliance came out on top.

If confirmed, the NFP would become the largest grouping in the National Assembly with between 172 and 215 seats in the 577-seat chamber, according to projections based on early results.

Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN), beaten into third place, is predicted to win between 115 to 155 seats – a major upset that looks set to bar the party from running the next government, as it had hoped.

President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance Ensemble (Together), was projected to be narrowly second and win 150-180 seats.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said he would offer Macron his resignation on Monday but was ready to serve "as long as duty demands", notably in light of the imminent Paris Olympics.

Cries of joy and tears of relief broke out at the leftist alliance's gathering in Paris when the estimates were announced.

Jean-Luc Mélénchon, leader of the NFP's main component – the hard-left France Unbowed – demanded that the left be allowed to form a government.

Turnout in the snap polls was around 67 percent – the highest since 1981.

(With newswires)




Leftist coalition wins most seats in French elections as far-right falls short

Gregor Young
Sun, 7 July 2024 


French leftist leader Jean-Luc Melenchon called the projections an “immense relief for a majority of people in our country”

A COALITION on the left that came together unexpectedly ahead of France’s snap elections won the most parliamentary seats in the vote, according to polling projections on Sunday.

The surprise projections put President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance in second place and the far right in third.

The lack of majority for any single alliance plunged France into political and economic turmoil.

Final results are not expected until late on Sunday or early Monday in the highly volatile snap election, which was called just four weeks ago in a huge gamble for Macron.

The deeply unpopular president lost control of parliament, according to the projections. Marine Le Pen’s far-right drastically increased the number of seats it holds in parliament but fell far short of expectations.

The snap legislative elections in this nuclear-armed nation and major economy will influence the war in Ukraine, global diplomacy and Europe’s economic stability.

France now faces the prospect of weeks of political machinations to determine who will be prime minister and lead the National Assembly. And Macron faces the prospect of leading the country alongside a prime minister opposed to most of his domestic policies.

French leftist leader Jean-Luc Melenchon called the projections an “immense relief for a majority of people in our country” and he demanded the resignation of the prime minister.

Melenchon is the most prominent of the leftist leaders who unexpectedly came together ahead of the two-round elections.

The projections, if confirmed by official counts expected later on Sunday or early on Monday, plunge a pillar of the European Union and its second-largest economy into intense uncertainty, with no clarity about who might partner with Macron as prime minister in governing France.

The timing of France’s leap into the political unknown could hardly be worse: With the Paris Olympics opening in less than three weeks, the country will be grappling with domestic instability when the eyes of the world are upon it.

He stunned France, and many in his own government, by dissolving parliament’s lower house, the National Assembly, after the far right surged in French voting for the European elections.

Macron argued that sending voters back to the ballot boxes would provide France with “clarification”.

The president was gambling that with France’s fate in their hands, voters might shift from the far right and left and return to mainstream parties closer to the center – where Macron found much of the support that won him the presidency in 2017 and again in 2022. That, he hoped, would fortify his presidency for his remaining three years in office.

But rather than rally behind him, millions of voters on both the left and right of France’s increasingly polarised political landscape seized on his surprise decision as an opportunity to vent their anger and possibly sideline Macron, by saddling him with a parliament that could now largely be filled with politicians hostile both to him and, in particular, his pro-business policies.

Already in last weekend’s first round of balloting, voters massively backed candidates from the far-right National Rally, in even greater numbers than in voting for the European Parliament. A coalition on of parties on the left took second and his centrist alliance was a distant third.

A hung parliament with no single bloc coming close to getting the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the more powerful of France’s two legislative chambers, would be unknown territory for modern France and usher in political turmoil.

Unlike other countries in Europe that are more accustomed to coalition governments, France does not have a tradition of politicians from rival political camps coming together to form a working majority.

The sharp polarisation of French politics is sure to complicate any coalition-building effort. Racism and antisemitism marred the electoral campaign, along with Russian disinformation campaigns, and more than 50 candidates reported being physically attacked — highly unusual for France.

The government said it deployed 30,000 police for Sunday’s runoff vote – an indication of both the high stakes and concerns that a far-right victory, or even no clear win for any bloc, could trigger protests.

Any cobbled-together majority risks being fragile, vulnerable to no-confidence votes that could cause it to fall.

Prolonged instability could increase suggestions from his opponents that Macron should cut short his second and last term. The French Constitution prevents him from dissolving parliament again in the next 12 months, barring that as a route to possibly give France greater clarity.

Surprise election win for left-green coalition plunges France into uncertainty

RFI
Sun, 7 July 2024 


In France's biggest political upheaval in decades, a newly formed left-wing alliance is set to take up a majority of seats in parliament, just ahead of Macron's centrist coalition, with far-right National Rally in third place. While final results are still to be announced, it is clear no one grouping has an absolute majority. So a third round – of jockying for further alliances – now begins.

The snap election – called by President Emmanuel Macron following historic wins by the far-right National Rally in June's European polls – looks like leaving parliament divided into three big groups: the left, centrists, and the far right.

They each have radically different platforms and no tradition of working together.


France's political culture is not one of compromise either, so what happens now is far from certain.

Macron has promised to remain as president, but made no public announcement on Sunday, awaiting final results on Monday.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced he would hand in his resignation on Monday. But he also said he could remain in place temporarily, if required, while a new government was formed and to guide France through the upcoming Paris Olympics.

What is clear is that there is major uncertainty over how a government can be formed in what is the EU's second biggest economy and its leading military power.
A power vaccuum

The left, which wants to cap prices of essential goods like fuel and food, raise the minimum wage to a net 1,600 euros per month, hike wages for public sector workers and impose a wealth tax, immediately said it wanted to govern.

(with newswires)


BOURGEOIS CHICKEN LITTLE ECONOMICS 

 
French poll projections plunge country into political and economic turmoil

Maureen Sugden
Sun, 7 July 2024 

A child votes for a parent in the French election, the result of which has plunged the country into disarray (Image: AP)


A coalition on the left that came together unexpectedly ahead of France's snap elections won the most parliamentary seats in the vote, according to polling projections.

The surprise projections just after the polls closed and put President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance in second place and the far right in third.

The lack of majority for any single alliance plunged France into political and economic turmoil. Final results are not expected until late tonight or early on Monday in the highly volatile snap election, which was called just four weeks ago in a huge gamble for Mr Macron.

The deeply unpopular president lost control of parliament, according to the projections. Marine Le Pen's far right drastically increased the number of seats it holds in parliament but fell far short of expectations.

The snap legislative elections in this nuclear-armed nation and major economy will influence the war in Ukraine, global diplomacy and Europe's economic stability.

France now faces the prospect of weeks of political machinations to determine who will be prime minister and lead the National Assembly. And Mr Macron faces the prospect of leading the country alongside a prime minister opposed to most of his domestic policies.

French leftist leader Jean-Luc Melenchon called the projections an "immense relief for a majority of people in our country" and he demanded the resignation of the prime minister.

Mr Melenchon is the most prominent of the leftist leaders who unexpectedly came together ahead of the two-round elections.

The projections, if confirmed by official counts expected later on Sunday or early on Monday, plunge a pillar of the European Union and its second-largest economy into intense uncertainty, with no clarity about who might partner with Mr Macron as prime minister in governing France.

The timing of France's leap into the political unknown could hardly be worse: With the Paris Olympics opening in less than three weeks, the country will be grappling with domestic instability when the eyes of the world are upon it.

For 46-year-old Mr Macron's centrists, the legislative elections have turned into a fiasco. He stunned France, and many in his own government, by dissolving parliament's lower house, the National Assembly, after the far right surged in French voting for the European elections.

Mr Macron argued that sending voters back to the ballot boxes would provide France with "clarification".

The president was gambling that with France's fate in their hands, voters might shift from the far right and left and return to mainstream parties closer to the centre - where Mr Macron found much of the support that won him the presidency in 2017 and again in 2022. That, he hoped, would fortify his presidency for his remaining three years in office.

But rather than rally behind him, millions of voters on both the left and right of France's increasingly polarised political landscape seized on his surprise decision as an opportunity to vent their anger and possibly sideline Mr Macron, by saddling him with a parliament that could now largely be filled with politicians hostile both to him and, in particular, his pro-business policies.

Already in last weekend's first round of balloting, voters massively backed candidates from the far-right National Rally, in even greater numbers than in voting for the European Parliament. A coalition on of parties on the left took second and his centrist alliance was a distant third.

A hung parliament with no single bloc coming close to getting the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the more powerful of France's two legislative chambers, would be unknown territory for modern France and usher in political turmoil.

Unlike other countries in Europe that are more accustomed to coalition governments, France does not have a tradition of politicians from rival political camps coming together to form a working majority.

The sharp polarisation of French politics is sure to complicate any coalition-building effort. Racism and antisemitism marred the electoral campaign, along with Russian disinformation campaigns, and more than 50 candidates reported being physically attacked - highly unusual for France. The government said it deployed 30,000 police for Sunday's runoff vote - an indication of both the high stakes and concerns that a far-right victory, or even no clear win for any bloc, could trigger protests.

Any cobbled-together majority risks being fragile, vulnerable to no-confidence votes that could cause it to fall.

Prolonged instability could increase suggestions from his opponents that Mr Macron should cut short his second and last term. The French Constitution prevents him from dissolving parliament again in the next 12 months, barring that as a route to possibly give France greater clarity.

This result might be the biggest surprise in the history of French elections

Sky News
Updated Sun, 7 July 2024 


This is an astonishing result, perhaps the biggest surprise in the history of French elections. Nobody saw it coming - the pollsters, the public or the politicians.


France will not have a far-right government, but that answer, that single fact, does not cover another crucial point. The country is still cloaked in uncertainty.

An election that was supposed to deliver clarity has done exactly the opposite. What lies ahead is a confused picture, dotted with political stalemate, public fury, long-standing feuds and a mass of unanswered questions.

What's clear is that the French parliament will be split between three factions.

'Absolute shock' in French election - follow latest

The biggest, but well short of an absolute majority, will be a left-wing coalition, called the New Popular Front. The centrist group, coalesced behind President Emmanuel Macron, has defied all predictions to come second. And the Rassemblement National (RN), the party predicted to be the biggest by just about everyone, stumbled home in third.

There is no affection between these groups. In fact, there is widespread loathing in all directions, which makes the prospect of coalitions hard to gauge.

Macron, for instance, has long been contemptuous of Jean-Luc Melenchon, the leader of the largest party in the left-wing coalition, just as Macron has disdain for Le Pen.

The rest of the left-wing coalition have turned their back on Melenchon, after he made inflammatory comments about Israel and Gaza, but they also need his support.

So when Melenchon now demands that his group lead, that is far from simple - his coalition partners, for instance, won't accept Melenchon as prime minister. So who would get that job? Nobody knows.

All the parties of the left are united by their vehement opposition to the RN, so much so that they joined with the centrist coalition in a tactical plan to thwart the RN in as many constituencies as possible.

Even to the right, there is disagreement - the centre-right Republicans seem split between those who would support the RN in a coalition, and those who would rather resign than help Marine Le Pen.

It is a bear-pit of argument, marked by the most visceral, divisive anger. Macron, who called this election hastily after suffering a chastening defeat in the European elections, is disliked, widely derided as "the president for the rich". But the coalition between left and centre does seem to have worked.

A week ago, after their clear victory in the first round of the election, there were plenty of people predicting an overall majority for the RN, with Jordan Bardella, Le Pen's 28-year-old protege, installed as prime minister.

Now, that has been dashed. France has turned against the RN. Perhaps, just perhaps, this is what Macron intended - to give the French public the vision of an RN government, and trust that they would bristle against the idea.

The question then - is if Bardella's chance at becoming prime minister has gone, and if Melenchon is unpalatable, then who gets the job instead? And nobody knows.

There is no guide to this, no mechanism to fall back upon.

Gabriel Attal, an acolyte of Macron who was appointed as prime minister earlier this year, may simply carry on by dint that he has the job until it changes. Although he has already said he will offer to resign on Monday if the exit poll is accurate.

If he were to stay on - in the absence of a coalition, his power to do anything, or exert any influence, would be even lower than it was before. Which was, by the way, just about nil.

It is a tumultuous time, reflected by the public interest.

The turnout for this election was the highest for decades; there was a thirst to vote - driven largely by the way in which the RN polarise opinion.

Many turned out specifically to back them, but more, it seems, went to the polling stations in this second round with the express desire to stop France embracing its first far-right government since the Second World War.

Take Etienne. We meet as he emerges from a polling station in the 6th arrondissement, moments after dropping his ballot into the transparent box. He's 31, a filmmaker, and says he's worried about the future.

"My grandfather fought against fascists, so I won't accept the Rassemblement National," he tells me, promising to "take to the streets" to protest if the RN takes power. "We are really fighters. I will defend multiculturalism."

Another woman, smiling and unmistakably Parisienne, breaks into a frown as I ask her about the RN, saying she is "scared" of the party, and anxious about Bardella. "If they win, I would feel miserable and frightened, because he looks like he's very clean, but inside I don't know who he is."

Paris, by an overwhelming majority, has rejected the RN, but this is just another fault line created by this election.

Bardella and Le Pen have huge support outside the big cities - in the nation's rural areas, in the north-east and north-west and dotted across the whole country.

Just like in other nations where populist politicians have thrived - take Hungary, as an example - there is a schism between the politics of the big cities, and the rest of the country.

What happens next is difficult to predict.

France, one of the world's wealthiest and most influential nations, is in a state of flux.


The Latest | In a surprise, French leftists win the most seats in legislative elections

The Associated Press
Updated Sun, 7 July 2024 

APTOPIX France Election
People stand in a square as they react to projected results after the second round of the legislative elections, in Lyon, central France, Sunday, July 7, 2024. Polls have closed in France, and polling projections say a coalition on the left that came together unexpectedly has won the most parliamentary seats in the pivotal runoff elections after a high turnout among voters. (AP Photo/Laurent Cipriani)
Final results in France say a leftist coalition that came together to try to keep the far right from power has won the most parliamentary seats in runoff elections. There was high voter turnout Sunday.

President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance has come in second and the far right in third. No one has a majority of parliament seats. The far right has drastically increased the number of seats it holds in parliament but fell far short of expectations.

The prime minister says he will turn in his resignation. Many questions lie ahead.

What happens next in this nuclear-armed nation has potential impact on the war in Ukraine, global diplomacy and Europe’s economic stability.

Here’s the latest:

It’s official: French voters reject a far-right majority in favor of the left

Final results say a coalition of the French left has won the most seats in legislative elections.

The leftist coalition has taken the most seats in parliament, with at least 181. Macron’s centrists have more than 160 seats. Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally have 143 seats after leading in the first round.

There is no majority for anyone, so the unpopular Macron will have to form alliances to run the government.

France now faces the stunning prospect of a hung parliament and political paralysis in a pillar of the European Union. The Paris Olympics are less than three weeks away.

French prime minister says he will resign

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal says he will resign after a leftist coalition surged to the lead in legislative elections.

Attal says he will remain in the post during the upcoming Paris Olympics and for as long as needed, given that polling projections show that no party has won an outright majority. There likely will be weeks of intense political negotiations to choose a new prime minister and form a government.

The leftist coalition dominated in the parliamentary vote, followed by President Emmanuel Macron’s centrists, with the far right in third. The results were a defeat for Macron, with no party in a majority. The unpopular president risks being forced to share power with a prime minister opposed to his pro-business, pro-European Union policies.

Macron will ‘wait’ to make decisions on new government

President Emmanuel Macron’s office says he will “wait for the new National Assembly to organize itself” before making any decisions on the new government.

The National Assembly is scheduled to gather in full session for the first time on July 18. The statement says Macron will ensure the “sovereign choice of the French people will be respected.”

Surprise polling projections say a coalition on the left that came together to try to keep the far right from power has won the most parliamentary seats, with Macron's alliance second and the far-right National Rally third.

A somber far right still claims historic gains

The president of France’s far-right National Rally has claimed historic gains for the party despite surprise projections showing it has fallen far short of expectations.

Jordan Bardella also blamed President Emmanuel Macron for “pushing France into uncertainty and instability.”

In a somber speech after the second-round vote, Bardella denounced the political maneuvering that led the National Rally to fall far short of expectations. An unprecedented number of candidates who qualified for the runoff stepped aside to allow an opponent to go head-to-head with the National Rally candidate, increasing the chances of defeating them.

The anti-immigration, nationalist party still increased its seat count in parliament to an unprecedented high, according to polling projections. No party won a majority.

Leftist leader calls the results an ‘immense relief’

Leftist leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon says the surprise results of the legislative elections are an “immense relief for a majority of people in our country.” He is also demanding the resignation of the prime minister.

Mélenchon is the most prominent of the leftist leaders who unexpectedly came together ahead of the two-round elections. Polling projections have put the leftist coalition in front, followed by President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance and the far right in third.

There is a lack of majority in parliament for any single alliance.

French leftists win most seats in legislative elections, pollsters say

Polling projections say a coalition on the left that came together unexpectedly ahead of France’s snap elections has won the most parliamentary seats.

The surprise projections put President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance in second and the far right in third. The lack of majority for any single alliance has plunged France into political and economic turmoil.

Final results are not expected until late Sunday or early Monday in the snap election that was called just four weeks ago in a huge gamble for Macron.

The deeply unpopular president lost control of parliament, according to the projections. The far right drastically increased the number of seats it holds in parliament but fell far short of expectations.

France now faces the prospect of weeks of political machinations to determine who will be prime minister and lead the National Assembly. And Macron faces the prospect of leading the country alongside a prime minister opposed to most of his domestic policies.

Macron meets with leaders from his alliance before polls close

French President Emmanuel Macron is meeting with leaders from his weakened majority alliance before polls close in Sunday’s second round of legislative elections. Among those present is Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, according to an aide to the president who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door meeting.

Many of Macron’s centrist political allies are furious at his decision to call the surprise elections just three weeks after the far-right National Rally trounced his party in European elections. They fear the centrist coalition will be wiped out in favor of the far right and left.

The first-round vote on June 30 saw major gains for the National Rally, potentially putting the far right in a position to govern France for the first time since World War II. Macron risks being forced to share power with a prime minister opposed to his pro-business, pro-European Union policies.

Some French youth are astonished by support for the far right

Some French youth are astonished by the number of people supporting the far-right National Rally in legislative elections.

Nawel Marrouchi is 15 and wishes she was old enough to vote. “As a binational, I am directly concerned,” the French-Moroccan said in Paris. She fears racism will gain even more ground: “In my class, one guy said once that foreigners shouldn’t get housing. But my father was an immigrant. They should go to these countries to understand why they are coming here.”

Jessica Saada is 31 and says “I think young people have not woken up yet. They don’t realize.” She is baffled by the party’s past and present positions on issues like wearing a headscarf in public: “It’s just going to cause problems and bring more hate.”

Even if the anti-immigration party doesn’t win a majority in parliament, she believes the damage is done.

With three hours before polls close, the turnout is 59.71%

With three hours to go before polls close in France's second round of high-stakes legislative elections, the latest figure on the turnout is 59.71%. It’s the highest turnout since 1981 at this time in the voting day.

The overall turnout is on track to be the highest in four decades. Polls close at 8 p.m. local time.

A pro-independence candidate in New Caledonia wins a parliament seat

In the restive French Pacific territory of New Caledonia, a pro-independence Indigenous Kanak candidate has won a seat in France’s parliament over a loyalist candidate in the second round of voting.

Emmanuel Tjibaou is a political novice and a son of a well-known Kanak independence leader, Jean-Marie Tjibaou, who was assassinated in 1989. He is the first pro-independence candidate to win a seat in the National Assembly since 1986.

Indigenous Kanaks have long sought to break free from France, which took the archipelago in 1853. Polls closed earlier in New Caledonia because of a curfew imposed in response to the violence that flared last month and left nine people dead. There was anger over an attempt by the government of President Emmanuel Macron to amend the French Constitution and change voting lists, which Indigenous Kanaks feared would further marginalize them.

Right-wing candidate and French loyalist Nicolas Metzdorf has won New Caledonia’s second parliament seat.

Macron votes

French President Emmanuel Macron voted in high-stakes legislative elections Sunday that could force him to share power with the rising far right.

Macron called the surprise vote after the anti-immigration, nationalist National Rally made huge gains in the June 9 European elections, taking a huge gamble that French voters would block the far-right party as they always have in the past.

But the National Rally instead won a larger share than ever in the first round on June 30, and its leader Marine Le Pen called on voters to give the party an absolute majority in the second round.

Sunday’s vote determines which party controls the National Assembly and who will be prime minister. If no party wins an absolute majority, forming a government comes only after extensive negotiations.

Early turnout reported

As of noon local time, turnout was at 26.63%, according to France’s interior ministry. That’s slightly higher than the 25.90% reported at the same time during the first round of voting last Sunday.

Parisians worry about future after casting ballots

Voters at a Paris polling station were acutely aware of the elections’ far-reaching consequences for France and beyond.

“The individual freedoms, tolerance and respect for others is what at stake today,” said Thomas Bertrand, a 45-year-old voter who works in advertising. He voted at a school where, as at all French schools, the national motto “Liberty, Equality, Fraternity” was displayed prominently.

Pierre Lubin, a 45-year-old business manager, was worried about whether the elections would produce an effective government.

“This is a concern for us,” Lubin said. “Will it be a technical government or a coalition government made up of (different) political forces?”

Even with the outcome still in doubt, Valerie Dodeman, a 55-year-old legal expert, said she is pessimistic about the future of France.

“No matter what happens, I think this election will leave people disgruntled on all sides,” Dodeman said.

Prime minister casts ballot in Paris suburb

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal cast his ballot in the Paris suburb of Vanves Sunday morning.

Macron is expected to vote later in the seaside town of La Touquet, while Le Pen is not voting after winning her district in northern France outright last week. Across France, 76 candidates secured seats in the first round, including 39 from her National Rally, 32 from the leftist New Popular Front alliance, and two from Macron’s centrist list.

Polls open in mainland France for the second round of high-stakes legislative elections

Voting opened Sunday in mainland France for the second round of high-stake legislative elections that have already seen the largest gains ever for the country’s far-right National Rally party.

French President Emmanuel Macron took a huge gamble in dissolving parliament and calling for the elections after his centrists were trounced in European elections on June 9. The first round on June 30 saw the largest gains ever for the anti-immigration, nationalist National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen. Sunday’s vote determines which party controls the National Assembly and who will be prime minister.

If support is further eroded for Macron’s weak centrist majority, he will be forced to share power with parties opposed to most of his pro-business, pro-European Union policies.

The second-round voting began Saturday in France’s overseas territories from the South Pacific to the Caribbean, Indian Ocean and North Atlantic. The elections wrap up Sunday at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT) in mainland France. Initial polling projections are expected Sunday night, with early official results expected late Sunday and early Monday.

Candidates make hurried deals to try to stop far-right National Rally from leading government

Opposition parties made hurried deals ahead of Sunday's second round of voting to try to block a landslide victory for Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally in the legislative elections, as she said her party would lead the government only if it won an absolute majority — or close to it.

An unprecedented number of candidates who qualified for Round 2 from the left-wing alliance of the New Popular Front and from President Emmanuel Macron’s weakened centrists have stepped aside to favor the candidate most likely to win against a National Rally opponent.

According to a count by French newspaper Le Monde, some 218 candidates who were supposed to compete in the second round have pulled out. Of those, 130 were on the left, and 82 came from the Macron-led centrist alliance Ensemble.


France's elections end up with no clear majority. This is what could happen next
SYLVIE CORBET
Sun, 7 July 2024 at 5:18 pm GMT-6·4-min read






APTOPIX France Election
People stand in Republique Plaza as they react to the projection of results during the second round of the legislative elections, in Paris, France, Sunday, July 7, 2024. Polls have closed in France, and polling projections say a coalition on the left that came together unexpectedly has won the most parliamentary seats in the pivotal runoff elections after a high turnout among voters. Banner at center reads "France is the fabric of migratation."
 (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)

PARIS (AP) — Election results show French voters have chosen to give a broad leftist coalition the most parliamentary seats in pivotal legislative elections, keeping the far right away from power. Yet no party won an outright majority, putting France in an uncertain, unprecedented situation.

President Emmanuel Macron ’s centrist alliance arrived in second position and the far right in third — still drastically increasing the number of seats it holds in the National Assembly, France's lower house of parliament.

No clear figure has emerged as a possible future prime minister. Macron says he will wait to decide his next steps, and heads to Washington this week for a NATO summit. The new legislators can start work in Parliament on Monday, and their first new session starts July 18.

A hung parliament?

Three major political blocs emerged from the elections — yet none of them is close to the majority of at least 289 seats out of 577.

The National Assembly is the most important of France’s two houses of parliament. It has the final say in the law-making process over the Senate, which is dominated by conservatives.

While not uncommon in other European countries, modern France has never experienced a parliament with no dominant party.

Such a situation requires lawmakers to build consensus across parties to agree on government positions and legislation. France’s fractious politics and deep divisions over taxes, immigration and Mideast policy make that especially challenging.

This means Macron's centrist allies won't be able to implement their pro-business policies, including a promise to overhaul unemployment benefits. It could also make passing a budget more difficult.

Can Macron make a deal with the left ?

Macron may seek a deal with the moderate left to create a joint government. Such negotiations, if they happen, are expected to be very difficult because France has no tradition of this kind of arrangement.

The deal could take the form of a loose, informal alliance that would likely be fragile.

Macron has said he would not work with the hard-left France Unbowed party, but he could possibly stretch out a hand to the Socialists and the Greens. They may refuse to take it, however.

His government last week suspended a decree that would have diminished worker’s rights to unemployment benefits, which has been interpretated as gesture toward the left.

If he can’t make a political deal, Macron could name a government of experts unaffiliated with political parties. Such a government would likely deal mostly with day-to-day affairs of keeping France running.

Complicating matters: Any of those options would require parliamentary approval.

Is the left divided?

The left has been torn by divisions in the past months, especially after the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas on Israel.

France Unbowed has been sharply criticized by other more moderate leftists for its stance on the conflict. Hard-left leaders have staunchly condemned the conduct of Israel’s war with Hamas and accused it of pursuing genocide against Palestinians. They have faced accusations of antisemitism, which they strongly deny.

The Socialists ran independently for the European Union elections last month, winning about 14% of the votes, when France Unbowed got less than 10% and the Greens 5.5%.

Yet Macron's move to call snap legislative elections pushed leftist leaders to quickly agree on forming a new coalition, the New Popular Front.

Their joint platform promises to raise the minimum salary from 1,400 to 1,600 euros, to pull back Macron’s pension reform that increased the retirement age from 62 to 64 and to freeze prices of essential food products and energy. All that has financial markets worried.

Is an interim government needed?

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said he will resign Monday. He also said he is ready to remain in the post during the upcoming Paris Olympics and for as long as needed. An interim government would handle current affairs pending further political negotiations.

Macron’s office says he will “wait for the new National Assembly to organize itself” before making any decisions on the new government.

There is no firm timeline for when Macron must name a prime minister, and no firm rule that he has to name a prime minister from the largest party in parliament.

What about Macron?

The president's term runs until 2027, and he has said he will not step down before its end.

With no majority and no possibility to implement his own plans, Macron comes out weakened from the elections.

In line with France's constitution, he still holds some powers over foreign policy, European affairs and defense and is in charge of negotiating and ratifying international treaties. The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces, and holds the nuclear codes.

There’s a possibility the new prime minister would be unable or unwilling to seriously challenge Macron’s defense and foreign policy powers, and would focus instead on domestic politics.

The prime minister is accountable to parliament, leads the government and introduces bills.

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Follow AP’s global election coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/global-elections/

Shock results in French election: Who are the winners and losers in Paris?

Jack Schickler
Sun, 7 July 2024 


Shock results in French election: Who are the winners and losers in Paris?


The left-wing alliance the New Popular Front has come first in French legislative elections, but failed to obtain a majority of lawmakers needed to control the National Assembly, according to an exit poll.

The predictions from Ipsos represent a setback for the far-right National Rally (RN) – which saw its hopes of an absolute majority shattered by tactical voting and candidates strategically withdrawing.

The New Popular Front (NFP), a hastily formed coalition of socialists, communists, greens and the leftist France Unbowed party, is set to take between 171 and 187 of the chamber’s 577 seats, Ipsos predicted.

It’s followed by the Ensemble coalition of President Emmanuel Macron – which Ipsos predicts will get 152-163 seats, a significant fall from the 245 it gained in the most recent 2022 elections.

Despite topping the polls in a first round held on 30 June, Marine Le Pen’s RN National Rally likely came third with 134-152 seats, which, if confirmed, would dash hopes of installing Jordan Bardella as Prime Minister.

Today’s poll was the second round of snap elections called by Macron on 9 June, after he took a hammering in a vote to select Members of the European Parliament.

Ensemble, previously known as En Marche, was largely assembled around the presidency of Macron, who’s become increasingly unpopular as his second and final term reaches its closing years.

His collapse has largely benefited RN, a long-established radical right-wing party which had zero Assembly seats as recently as 2007.

Leftists up, centre-right founders

The NFP was assembled in June to fend off the threat from the far-right, though it didn’t succeed in achieving full unity; left-wing parties outside the NFP took 14-16 seats, the poll suggested.

In 2022, the equivalent coalition, known as NUPES, gained 131 seats, while other leftists had 22 – though it’s not clear how long the NFP’s disparate alliance will hang together.

The results spell continuing bad news for the Republicans.

The centre-right party of Charles de Gaulle and Nicolas Sarkozy long dominated French politics, but it (and its allies) are now predicted to gain 63-68 seats – albeit that doesn’t count those members, including party leader Eric Ciotti, that pledged allegiance to Le Pen.
Who will be Prime Minister?

Given the results, Macronist Gabriel Attal seems likely to lose his post as Prime Minister, which he’s only held since January – though it’s not clear who will replace him.

The French constitution allows for “cohabitation”, with a President and Prime Minister from different parties. It last happened from 1997-2002, when Socialist Lionel Jospin ruled alongside centre-right President Jacques Chirac.

But it’s unprecedented for no party to win a majority without any obvious ruling coalition, and France may now find itself in an unfamiliar deadlock.

France has a two-round electoral system – only those who scored sufficiently well in a 30 June vote advanced to today’s run-off.

But around 215 successful candidates stepped down over the course of the week, as the “Republican Front” sought to avoid splitting the anti-far-right vote in constituencies where three or more people made it through.

With so much at stake, voters have turned out in droves. As at 6.25pm, turnout was at 67.1%, the highest seen since 1997 and far higher than the 46.2% gained in 2022, Ipsos said.

Already this afternoon, Paris was bracing for potentially violent protests at the outcome, and shops on the swanky Champs-Elysées boarded up their windows in preparation.

UPDATE: this story was updated at 22:00 to reflect latest Ipsos exit polls.

French Jewish people conflicted over voting choices amid antisemitism fears

Lili Bayer in Paris
Sat, 6 July 2024


A demonstrator holds a placard at a rally against the far right at Place de la République in Paris last month.Photograph: Zakaria Abdelkafi/AFP/Getty Images

As France faces a high-stakes second round of elections on Sunday, French Jewish people say they are grappling with tough choices and feel caught between extremes amid concerns about rising antisemitism.

As part of her longstanding efforts to detoxify the image of the far-right National Rally (RN) – currently leading in opinion polls – Marine Le Pen, to the incredulity of many, has sought to present herself as a friend of Jewish people and Israel.

Meanwhile, polling in second place is the left-green New Popular Front (NPF) alliance, which includes the centre-left and greens and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s hard-left party, France Unbowed (LFI). Senior figures within LFI have made comments that many French Jews and others have described as antisemitic.

These dynamics have raised profound questions for French Jewish communities, with many saying they feel stuck in the middle, with antisemitism not being sufficiently addressed.

The Guardian spoke with more than a dozen members of French Jewish communities in the days before the second round of elections, from politicians and public intellectuals to pensioners, student leaders and young professionals. The conversations reflected a diversity of views on political ideology and voting and a broad consensus about fears of rising antisemitic rhetoric and violence.

On Friday, the umbrella group Crif, which represents Jewish organisations in France, and the country’s chief rabbi, Haïm Korsia, were among the signatories of a public statement reiterating their formal stance: “Neither RN nor LFI.”

In an interview in Paris, the writer and philosopher Bernard-Henri Lévy said: “All the Jews I know agree they will of course never vote for France Unbowed, and they will never vote for Marine Le Pen.”

When it came to RN, he said: “There is absolutely no evidence of a deep change on the matter of antisemitism.”

Related: The French republic is under threat. We are 1,000 historians and we cannot remain silent | Patrick Boucheron, Antoine Lilti and others

RN, originally named Front National, was co-founded by Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who is well known for his antisemitic remarks. He has been convicted several times of contesting crimes against humanity, including for his claims that the gas chambers used to kill Jews during the Holocaust were only a “detail” of history.

Early members of the party included former leaders of a Waffen-SS military unit under Nazi command during the second world war. Pierre Bousquet, of the Waffen-SS Charlemagne division, was the party’s first treasurer and a founding member.

Even after its rebranding, RN has continued to face repeated scandals, including election candidates making allegedly antisemitic remarks.

The RN and LFI have repeatedly rejected accusations of antisemitism. Neither party responded to requests for comment on the antisemitism allegations.

For many French Jews, both parties are deemed unacceptable.

In the days before the second round, members of the Union of French Jewish Students (UEJF) travelled to key constituencies to try to convince voters not to vote for extremes. As part of efforts to form a “republican front” against the far right, many centrist candidates who came third in the first round have since pulled out, leaving many voters with a straight choice between an NPF candidate and the RN.

Viviane, who asked to be identified by her first name only, said if the left had entered the second round in her area, she might have been open to voting for the far right, adding: “I’m not sure what I would have done at the last minute – I don’t think I would have managed to cast a ballot for the National Rally.”

In the days leading up to Sunday’s vote, a few people told the Guardian they were planning to vote for the far right, despite not feeling fully comfortable with the party. For many others, casting a vote for the RN remains an unthinkable prospect.

After morning prayers at a synagogue in central Paris on Saturday, there were heated conversations over snacks: is the far right really a lesser evil? Is not voting at all best?

French Jews who identify with the left and support the NPF, meanwhile, have also grappled with dilemmas. Lévy said he believed it had been “a political mistake, a moral fault” to include LFI in the leftwing alliance. Not everyone agrees.

Related: French elections: what is the republican front – and will it head off National Rally?

Alice Timsit, 30, a city councillor and member of Les Écologistes party, described a growing feeling of isolation within the French left since the Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October and Israel’s retaliatory assault on Gaza. “It was very difficult for me to realise that my own political family left us alone,” adding that this was why she had joined Golem, a leftwing French Jewish collective.

Asked about LFI, she said that while some leaders had made antisemitic remarks, it was not antisemitic as a party when it came to policy. “It’s absolutely vital,” she said, to have LFI as part of the NPF because the far right “is a huge, huge risk for democracy”.

Timsit added that antisemitism needed to be addressed, including on the left. “I’m very sure that the left wing can do some great things, but to do that, we have to also face problems. We have to face it, because denying it is the worst thing to do.”

Others on the left share this view – to an extent.

Ariel Weil, a socialist serving as mayor of Paris Centre – an area covering four districts of the capital, said that in his view RN was incompatible with Jewish values, but also raised concerns about elements of LFI, saying he had always been “extremely opposed” to an alliance with them.

“There are only a few places where voters have to choose [on Sunday] between the extreme left wing and the extreme right wing … I’ve said, amongst others, that there are maybe 10 people that you can’t vote for amongst the Mélenchon party. You can’t vote for them because they are fascists from the left wing,” he said.

Aside from those candidates, said Weil, voters must back LFI against its far-right opponents.

“We are trying to walk a fine line,” he said, adding that once the election was over the left would have some challenges to address. “We are going to need to rebuild social democracy – and put an end to this alliance with people that do not share [our values].”