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Tuesday, December 02, 2025

Why America Is Removing Thousands Of Dams And Letting Rivers Run Free – OpEd

The 2024 removal of the Iron Gate Dam, part of the Klamath River restoration, the largest dam removal project in history. Photo Credit: Bob Pagliuco / NOAA Office of Habitat Conservation, Wikipedia Commons



By Tara Lohan

After centuries of dam building, a nationwide movement to dismantle these aging barriers is showing how free-flowing rivers can restore ecosystems, improve safety, and reconnect people with nature.

With more than 550,000 dams in the United States, free-flowing rivers are an endangered species. We’ve dammed, diked, and diverted almost every major river in the country, straightening curves, pinching off floodplains, and blocking passage for fish and other aquatic animals. But this has come at a great cost. Freshwater biodiversity—all the organisms that hail from our rivers, streams, lakes, and wetlands—is among the most threatened on the planet. Dams have played a big role in that demise, pushing fish, mussels, and other animals to the brink, and some over it. In North America, nearly 40 percent of fish are imperiled, and 61 species have blinked out since 1900.

A growing dam removal movement has led to some 2,200 dams being blasted and backhoed from U.S. rivers—most of them in the past 25 years. It’s an extraordinary turn of events for a dam-loving country. Europeans began erecting river barriers soon after they arrived in North America. Massachusetts’s Old Oaken Bucket Pond Dam, built in 1640, is one of the country’s oldest known dams. Thousands more followed across New England, then down the East Coast, and eventually westward. They powered mills that ground corn, cut lumber, forged tack, and produced textiles. As dams raised the height of the water behind them, they also smothered rapids and white water so that logs could be floated from upstream forests—where they were felled—to downstream industry, where they were processed. After hydroelectric power replaced mechanical power in the 1880s, the dams kept towns and cities alight.

As dam building pushed westward, dam heights pushed skyward. Hoover Dam, built in the 1930s with the labor of 21,000 men, sits 726 feet high and more than 1,200 feet long—more a fortress than infrastructure. Grand Coulee Dam on the Columbia River in Washington rises to 550 feet and stretches nearly a mile long. The United States emerged from the Great Depression into a dam-building frenzy that lasted more than 30 years, dubbed the “go-go years” by Marc Reisner in Cadillac Desert, his iconic book on western water. Between 1950 and 1979, approximately 1,700 dams were built each year.

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, which built many of the country’s mammoth dams and reengineered its rivers, had a motto: “Our rivers: total use for greater wealth.” Millions of Americans cashed in on the boom, often without giving it a thought. Politicians and regulators championed dams for their power, flood control, water storage, and recreational potential. Indeed, dams shaped the architecture of the West, irrigating millions of arid acres to grow crops for people and livestock, corralling drinking water for cities hundreds of miles away, churning the engines of war to create aluminum for fighter planes and plutonium for bombs, and turning valleys and canyons into giant swimming pools for our amusement.

Woody Guthrie captured the sentiment of those years in his 1941 song “Grand Coulee Dam,” which refers to the Columbia River as a “wild and wasted stream.” Wasted until it was dammed, that is. The folksinger, spurred by a government paycheck for his efforts, penned 26 songs espousing the virtues of the Columbia River’s dams. That sentiment was also a natural extension of an ethos brought to the Americas by European colonists: Nature should be harnessed, subjugated, bent to the will of those manifesting their destiny. Along the way, any impact on fish and river health was either poorly understood or simply ignored. Often the latter. Also ignored were obligations to tribes that had treaty rights to fish rivers that were quickly becoming empty of fish.



For most Indigenous people, dams didn’t bring enrichment or progress; it was one more theft from the enduring process of colonization in which food, community, ceremony, and sovereignty were stolen. Barry McCovey Jr., a member of the Yurok Tribe in California, called the dams on the Klamath River, where his people reside, “cultural genocide.” Dams have swallowed creation sites, burial grounds, gathering places, fishing holes, homelands, and human history.

In the 1990s, then-Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt reflected that we have been building, on average, one large dam a day every day since the Declaration of Independence. It hasn’t been without ecological consequences either. Dams have decimated migratory fish populations by blocking their access to vital upstream habitat for spawning, feeding, and evading predators. The barriers also obstruct the downstream movement of sediment and nutrients, thus depleting riverbanks and coastal beaches, hastening erosion, and reducing the growth of riverside plants that feed insects, birds, and other animals.

The water that backs up behind a dam—its impoundment—turns a river into an unnatural lake. Migrating young salmon that once quickly rode spring freshets to the ocean must now navigate slow-moving water over a wide expanse, which takes more energy and increases the chances that they’ll end up as dinner to a hungry predator, of which there are many if you’re a tiny fish. And that’s all before they have to run the turbine gauntlet and face the drop from the dam’s height to the water below. The slack water in an impoundment behind the dam can also heat up, turning these reservoirs into bathtubs with lethal temperatures for some fish. The warm water can also spur the spread of invasive species that prey on native residents.

Dams upend so many natural processes that it could be argued a river dammed isn’t really a river at all. It’s also possible that many of us don’t remember how a free-flowing river really looks and sounds. Dam removals can help restore not just river function but our collective memory, and I think we’ll need to do a lot more of it. The U.S. dam-building flurry hit its peak in the 1970s, and since 2000, we’ve been taking down more dams than we’ve been building. But the dam removal movement didn’t happen spontaneously. It was fought for by tribes, conservationists, fishers, and eventually broad, somewhat unlikely coalitions. It was also aided by environmental laws that protect clean water and endangered species, by scientific studies of dam removals and their impacts, and by regulators willing to manage adaptively.

Many people may see removing dams as outlandish. After all, they provide clean, cheap energy, right? But it turns out that only 3 percent of dams produce hydropower. Although hydropower is often placed in the “clean energy” column, dams and reservoirs also produce greenhouse gases, such as methane, and some do so to a significant degree.

Climate change poses yet more challenges. In drought-plagued regions, such as the Colorado River Basin, very little water can leave major reservoirs too low to produce hydropower or deliver water supplies. On the flip side, many dams today aren’t designed to withstand climate-amplified storms, which are increasing in frequency and severity, can threaten public safety, and may leave big cleanup bills. A big storm in 2023 put Montpelier, Vermont, underwater, and experts found that dams actually made the flooding worse.

There are many compelling environmental reasons to remove dams—including the long list of ecological consequences given above—but public safety is also paramount. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) gave the nation’s dam safety a “D” grade in 2021. Until 2019, there were more than 15,000 “high-hazard” dams, where a failure would result in the loss of life. And there’s ample reason to be worried. The average age of our dams is 57 years, and more than 8,000 have surpassed 90 years. Aging dams require regular maintenance to ensure their safety, but this comes at a significant cost. As of 2024, $165 billion was required to rehabilitate all nonfederal dams in need of repair, and another $27 billion was needed for federal dams, according to the ASCE 2021 report.

Dams also don’t have to fail to be dangerous. At U.S. low-head dams, many only a few feet tall, some 1,400 people have drowned because of the unseen and unsafe hydraulics that these dams produce. The 6-foot-tall Dock Street Dam in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, has taken 31 lives between 1913 and April 2025.

Of course, many of our dams serve critical purposes, and I’ve yet to meet a dam removal advocate who thinks that they should all come down. I certainly don’t. But there’s no shortage of low-hanging fruit when it comes to dams worthy of demolition. Tens of thousands of dams—in some states, the majority of dams obstructing rivers and streams—no longer serve a useful purpose. These so-called deadbeat dams include mill dams, where the mills are decades (or centuries) gone, and obsolete dams, such as the 168-foot-tall Matilija Dam in Southern California, which was built for water storage but filled with silt in just 50 years. Some dams are orphans, with no known owner and therefore no one overseeing their upkeep. In many cases, it’s cheaper to take down dams than to refurbish and retrofit them to meet modern safety and environmental laws.

Dam removals can also be a necessary step toward ameliorating harm to Indigenous communities from the loss of food sovereignty, treaty rights, cultural resources, and homelands. More people are now realizing the benefits of restoring nature for nature’s sake—for the bears, birds, and beavers. For the salmon and cedars. Certainly, that’s been the case on the Elwha River in Washington state. People also benefit from ecological restoration. Over the last few decades, we’ve started to better account for what healthy rivers provide. These ecosystem services have helped put a value on something invaluable.

These days, we’re still building dams, although fewer than before, which is a step in the right direction. But to undo centuries of environmental harm, we’ll need bigger leaps.

American Rivers has set an ambitious goal to work with partners to remove30,000 dams and open up 300,000 river miles by 2050. That work is aided by aquatic connectivity teams now operating in 26 states and counting. There are also some other unlikely partners, such as the hydropower industry, although it’s not a booster of every project.

“It has really come down to safety and economics. They’re electing to take out their lower-performing assets,” Brian Graber, senior director of River Restoration at American Rivers, told me. “There are many more dam owners who want to remove dams, and so trade groups, like the National Hydropower Association, are no longer adversaries.”

Opening up rivers, I think, opens up a door of possibilities both for fish and people. It allows us to reimagine how to grow food without emptying rivers of life, how to generate clean energy without driving extinction, and how to move forward without leaving part of the community behind. We can be better neighbors to each other, but also better people on this planet.



Author Bio: Tara Lohan has been a professional environmental journalist and editor for more than 15 years. Her work has been published in the Nation, the American Prospect, Salon, High Country News, Grist, the Revelator, Adventure Journal, and other news outlets. She is the editor of two books on the global water crisis and, most recently, Undammed: Freeing Rivers and Bringing Communities to Life (Island Press, 2025).

Credit Line: This excerpt is adapted from Tara Lohan’s Undammed: Freeing Rivers and Bringing Communities to Life (2025, Island Press). It is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) with permission from Island Press. It was produced for the web by Earth | Food | Life, a project of the Independent Media Institute.


Sunday, November 16, 2025

Saturday, September 06, 2025

How a Century of Anti-Communism Cleared the Way for Trump’s Authoritarianism

This trope has long been used to justify repression of anarchists, communists, liberals, immigrants, and unions.


September 3, 2025

Listening to the incendiary rhetoric emanating from Trump and MAGA world, one would think the United States of today, decades after the collapse of the communist bloc, was enmeshed in an existential struggle against communism. Even before his election win in 2024, Trump claimed his opponents’ economic policies were at the extremes of leftism. Kamala Harris, he said, had gone “full communist.” With Trump setting the tone — and now ensconced in the White House — his minions have amplified that rhetoric as a way of justifying their repressive onslaught. For example, Homeland Security Director, and anti-immigrant stormtrooper, Kristi Noem told the press in July that liberals “are actually turning out to be a bunch of communists and Marxists.” In like fashion, Trump’s Deputy Chief of Staff Steven Miller — speaking in Washington’s Union Station after the military was dispatched to that city, proclaimed, “We’re not going to let the communists destroy a great American city.” The tenor and tone of all this show no signs of abating, as the fascistic moves and raw assertion of power continues.

That the trope of anti-communism is being invoked and retains such power, is in no small measure a testament to the legacy of the anti-communist initiatives of the 20th century. This writer’s forthcoming book, Menace of Our Time: The Long War Against American Communism, takes a deeper dive into that history. Given the moment we find ourselves in, it is worth exploring some.
Beginnings

In 1901, President William McKinley was assassinated at the Pan-American Exposition in Buffalo, New York. What followed was a wave of repression in which his assassin, an erstwhile anarchist named Leon Czolgosz, was tried and executed, all within two months of the shooting. In the aftermath, New York State passed a law proscribing what it called “criminal anarchy,” making it a felony to advocate — not plan for, let alone move to carry out — revolution. The law would serve as a major weapon against organized leftists, specifically communists, who emerged in the early years of the 20th century.

Fast-forward 18 years, and an anarchist bombing at the home of U.S. Attorney General A. Mitchell Palmer triggered the Palmer Raids, a key chapter of what would come to be called the First Red Scare — a government roundup of thousands of anarchists and communists, hundreds of whom would be deported. Arrested in this period and prosecuted under the criminal anarchy law was the then-communist Benjamin Gitlow, convicted and imprisoned for publishing a document called The Left-Wing Manifesto. The conviction, appealed all the way to the Supreme Court, was upheld. As the court wrote in its opinion, “It cannot be said that the State is acting arbitrarily or unreasonably when, in the exercise of its judgment as to the measures necessary to protect the public peace and safety, it seeks to extinguish the spark without waiting until it has enkindled the flame or blazed into the conflagration.” This principle of anti-advocacy — a fundamental negation of the First Amendment — would remain the law of the land for decades. It would also be a major instrument leveled against domestic communists.

This period also saw the rise of a young up-and-comer in the U.S. Justice Department: J. Edgar Hoover. Hoover, who was modernizing the Bureau of Investigation (later the Federal Bureau of Investigation), created a filing system of anarchists and communists that would be a cornerstone of the FBI’s work going forward. The bureau also deployed government informants who gathered intelligence, facilitated raids, and spread insidious rumors about the loyalty of dedicated comrades. It was a methodological template that would come to serve the FBI well.

Related Story

The Red Scare Overlapped With Another State-Sanctioned Panic: The Black Scare
Rooted in white people’s fear of Black Nationalism, the Black Scare was conjoined with the anti-communist Red Scare. By Charisse Burden-Stelly 
UniversityofChicagoPress/TruthoutFebruary 2, 2024

While the fallout from the Palmer Raids subsided by the mid-1920s, the communists, who would cohere into the Communist Party USA (CPUSA or CP), would become the preeminent target of the FBI and other anti-communist forces. In doing so, it confronted the repressive bite of not only the bureau, but also the anti-syndicalism and criminal anarchy laws that had been passed in nearly every state in the U.S. — to say nothing of the routine harassment by right-wing forces and local police.
Depression and World War

Such was the situation as the country entered the Great Depression. It was during this time that rank-and-file communists and their supporters fought for unions, the unemployed, and opposed lynchings and the larger Jim Crow system. In doing so, they confronted unceasing pushback — firings, violent attacks on their meetings, arrests on the picket lines, beatings by police, and even killings. All of this was facilitated by a media sounding a hyperbolic alarm against a communist menace.

That alarm would grow shriller as the country approached World War II. The communists, whose initial anti-war position was at cross purposes with the administration of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, were targeted by early predecessors of the House Committee on Un-American Activities. They also saw their leader, Earl Browder, imprisoned for traveling under a false passport. At the same time, new anti-communist laws were enacted: the Voorhis Act, requiring the registration of agents of a foreign power (i.e., the CP); the Hatch Act, proscribing communists in government; and the Smith Act against teaching the principles of revolution. It was also during this time that Roosevelt bestowed extraordinary powers on the FBI to target domestic communism. That led to measures such as the creation of a custodial detention list — essentially a concentration camp scheme to round up communists if an emergency order was given. When the communists abandoned their anti-war position with the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union, the repression abated — though hardly ended. It was a circumstance that would not last.
Dangerous Public Opinion

With the onset of the Cold War, the government undertook its most aggressive wave of anti-communist repression ever, imprisoning or holding under indictment dozens of the party’s top leaders by way of the Smith Act. This formal repression also fostered a social climate where communists became pariahs of the first order.

An indication of how deeply anti-communist sentiment penetrated the public consciousness could be seen in a 1954 poll by the Opinion Research Corporation. When asked if congressional committees hurt innocent people, 49 percent of the respondents said yes. Then, when asked if innocent people could be hurt in the process, 58 percent said, hurt or not, it was more important to uncover communists. The vast majority of Americans also said that communists should be stripped of citizenship, that the government should be allowed to tap their phones, and that it was a good idea “for people to report to the FBI any neighbors or acquaintances whom they suspected of being communists.” That this repression garnered such support — despite the modest actual influence of U.S. communists — was an example of how a negative consensus could be built through unrelenting demagoguery. In the fifties and to a lesser degree in the sixties, it was communism; in the eighties and nineties, it was terrorism, in the wake of 9/11 it was Islam, first Al Qaeda, then ISIS, and now again it is “the communists” and “the woke left.” The names may have changed, but the methodology has not.

A Vicious COINTELPRO

While the fever pitch of the Second Red Scare would lessen as the fifties gave way to the sixties, the pursuit of the CP did not. This era witnessed the initiation of the FBI’s Counterintelligence Program (COINTELPRO) aimed at the CPUSA, the first and most extensive in this notorious disruption effort.

One example can offer insight into the program’s myriad operations: the case of Aaron Libson, a closeted gay man and communist activist living in Philadelphia. In 1966, Libson was arrested by undercover police in a “tearoom” — a restroom in a public park used for gay encounters — on a sodomy charge. When the FBI, who knew Libson was a communist, learned of the arrest, they snapped into action with a COINTELPRO operation. As an FBI memorialized, the point was to “neutralize Libson with the party and embarrass the party generally.” To achieve this, they anonymously called James Dolsen, the head of the Philadelphia CP, as well as one of their press contacts “who has been used quite successfully in the Counterintelligence Program and has always protected the Bureau’s interests.”

Libson describes what followed:

“When I had the arrest, I pleaded nolo contendere — I do not wish to contend — on a Friday. The next day, Saturday, I woke up and got ready for work, and as I looked at the paper that morning, there was a small article saying, ‘Local Red arrested.’ I had a suicide plan ready just in case it came out, so I thought, OK, this is it and I carried out the plan. … I wasn’t going to do anything at my house where my family would find me, so I rented a room at the Arch Street YMCA. I’d packed some of the crystal stuff you clean toilets in some tin foil, and I swallowed that and laid down and waited for something to happen. Nothing happened. In the interim, I’d called a friend of mine. While I was waiting for something to happen with the poison, I got up and sat on the window ledge — the room was on the fifth floor. As I realized the poison wasn’t working.”

Fortunately, the friend stopped things from going further. For its part, the Bureau counted this as a victory. As the noted in a memo detailing various COINTELPRO operations, “After Libson entered a guilty plea in February 1967, the fact was published in a newspaper, Daniel Rubin, National Organizational Secretary, stated Libson was dropped from the CP.”

While COINTELPRO officially came to an end after being exposed in the early 1970s, the surveillance and attention to the CP did not. In 1978 Congress established the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court which allowed for the legal wiretapping of those the US considered foreign agents, which included the pro-Soviet, CPUSA. The Bureau also kept in place its informant Morris Childs, who was acting as CP General Secretary Gus Hall’s liaison with the Soviets — a paradoxical circumstance of the Bureau both facilitating the funding of the CP, something Child’s was responsible for, while also garnering precious intelligence — and then there was the FBI’s investigation of the Committee in Support of the People of El Salvador (CISPES) because of perceived communist infiltration. With the collapse of the USSR in 1991, the extraordinary attention to the CPUSA ended, if not the legal and extralegal measures against other perceived enemies.

Were all this a matter of the past, it would be bad enough, but this history has thrust itself into the present. The Alien Enemies Act of 1798, used against communists and anarchists during the Palmer Raids of 1920, was leveled in 2025 against Kilmar Abrego Garcia and Mahmoud Khalil. Trump has talked about stripping immigrant citizens of naturalization; meanwhile, the MAGA shock troops have set their sights on the political opposition. Elise Stefanik, the MAGA congresswoman from New York, has called New York City’s mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani a “raging antisemite communist.” The methodology behind this is hardly concealed. Trump, while running for president in the summer of 2024, made this clear: “All we have to do is define our opponent as being a communist or a socialist or somebody who is going to destroy our country.”

While this effort has not been wholly successful, it is a significant problem that no small number of people are swayed by this. In that sense, knowing a little history can serve as a weapon.


This article is licensed under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), and you are free to share and republish under the terms of the license.

Aaron J. Leonardis an author and historian. His current book is Menace of Our Time: The Long War Against American Communism (Rutgers University Press).

Tuesday, August 19, 2025

 'Kick in the teeth': Key indicator comes in ‘scorching hot’ just as Trump tariffs hit



August 17, 2025 |


A leading inflation indicator surged much more than expected last month, just as the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs started to weigh on American businesses and consumers.

New Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers released on Thursday showed that wholesale prices rose by 0.9% over the last month and by 3.3% over the last year. These numbers were significantly higher than economists' consensus estimates of a 0.2% monthly rise and a 2.5% yearly rise in producer prices.

PPI is a leading indicator of future readings of the Consumer Price Index, the most widely cited gauge of inflation, as increases in wholesalers' prices almost inevitably get passed on to consumers. Economists have been predicting for months that Trump's tariffs on imported goods, which at the moment are higher than at any point in nearly 100 years, would lead to a spike in inflation.

Reacting to the higher-than-expected PPI number, some economic experts pinned the blame directly on the president.

"So much for foreigners paying tariffs," commented Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at tax consulting firm RSM US, on X. "If they did, PPI would be falling. Wholesale prices up 3.3% from a year ago and 3.7% in the core. The temperature is definitely rising in the core. This implies a hot PCE reading lies ahead."

Liz Pancotti, the managing director of policy and advocacy at the Groundwork Collaborative, took a deep dive into the numbers and found that Trump's tariffs were having an impact on a wide range of products.

"There is no mistaking it: President Trump's tariffs are hitting American farmers and driving up grocery prices for American families," she said. "Wholesale prices for grocery staples, like fresh vegetables (up 39% over the past month) and coffee (up 29% over the past year) are rising, squeezing American families even further in the checkout line."

Pancotti singled out the rise in milk prices as particularly worrisome for American families.

"Milk drove more than 30% of the increase in prices for unprocessed goods, rising by 9.1% in just the past month," she explained. "Tuesday's CPI print showed that milk prices rose by 1.9% in July, and this PPI data suggests further price hikes are on the way."

Betsey Stevenson, who served on former President Barack Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, also pointed the finger at Trump's policies.

"Tariffs will cause higher prices," she said. "Volatility and uncertainty will cause higher prices. The PPI jump is not a surprise, it was inevitable."

On his Bluesky account, CNBC's Carl Quintanilla flagged analysis from economic research firm High Frequency Economics stating that the new PPI numbers were "a kick in the teeth for anyone who thought that tariffs would not impact domestic prices in the United States economy."

The firm added that it "will not be a long journey for producers' prices to translate into consumer prices" in the coming months.

Liz Thomas, the head of investment strategy at finance company SoFi, argued that the hot PPI numbers could further frustrate Trump's goal of getting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates given that doing so would almost certainly boost inflation further.

"The increase in PPI was driven by services, and there were increases in general services costs and in the Trade component (i.e., wholesale/retail margins)," she commented. "The Fed won't like this report."

Ross Hendricks, an analyst at economic research firm Porter & Co., described the new report as "scorching hot" and similarly speculated that it would stop the Federal Reserve from cutting rates.

"Good luck with them rate cuts!" he wrote. "Can't recall the last time we've seen a miss that big on a single monthly inflation number."

Hedge fund manager and author Jeff Macke jokingly speculated that the bad PPI print would cause Trump to fire yet another government statistician just as he fired Erika McEntarfer, the former commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"Whoever compiles the PPI needs to update their CV," he wrote.

Just as with the monthly jobs report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics collects and publishes PPI data.

'Just baffled': Economist questions how Trump claims his plan is 'a win for America'


U.S. President Donald Trump reacts as he meets with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (not pictured) at Trump Turnberry golf club on July 28, 2025 in Turnberry, Scotland, Britain. Christopher Furlong/Pool via REUTERS

August 16, 2025 
ALTERNET

Natasha Sarin, president and co-founder of The Budget Lab at Yale, says she bristles at the thought of President Donald Trump touting his recent E.U. trade deal as a win.

“The idea that taking a tariff rate of 1.5 percent and turning it into a tariff rate of 15 percent plus is somehow a win for Americans — I’m just baffled by the concept,” said the economist to New York Times reporter Ezra Klein. “Because no one would say that if you took the sales tax on certain goods and you increased it 15-fold that was a win for Americans. But effectively, that’s what we’ve done.”

Sarin said the U.S. economy before President Trump took office was doing “quite well” relative to the rest of the world recovering from pandemic, despite many polls. Inflation had been very high, but it was coming back down toward the Fed’s 2 percent target, with just the last mile to go. The labor market, she said, was strong.

And then President Trump took office.

“At the time, many commentators, including myself, said the best-case scenario for the economy is literally if [Trump] did nothing,” Sarin said. “… Instead, beginning on Liberation Day and continuing since, the president and his administration initiated a trade war aimed at remaking the global order. The consequences of the trade war have been some of the most inflationary policies we’ve seen in our lifetimes.”

Now Trump’s trade war is beginning to reverberate.

“The Budget Lab at Yale, which I run, estimates that we’re going to see household prices increase by around $2,000 a year. We’re going to see an inflation uptick, and we’re going to see a weaker labor market as a result of all that has already been done.

Sarin told Klein the only reason most other nations haven’t responded to Trump’s tariffs with retaliatory tariffs of their own is because tariffs “are a bad tax” on their own people by forcing folks at the middle or bottom of the tax code to pay proportionately more for goods and necessities.

Most countries, she said “don’t want to hit low- and middle-income people who consume most of what they earn.”

Plus, if you make it more expensive to buy goods, Sarin said people are going to buy fewer goods, and demand drops. People buy fewer TVs and couches because they’re more expensive — then production and investment in those types of capacities decrease, and the economy goes into a drag.

“Over the last six months our growth rate has been around 1.2 percent,” said Sarin, who is also a law professor. “It was supposed to be — as of last November, when we made projections — basically twice that. So, this is having a real effect on the economy. It’s slowing and shrinking it. That’s exactly what our models predict, and that’s exactly what economists … would expect to happen from these types of policies.”

Read the full New York Times report at this link.



'Gloom' over Trump economy hits worst levels 'since the Great Recession': report


FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speak during a tour of the Federal Reserve Board building, which is currently undergoing renovations, in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 24, 2025. REUTERS/Kent Nishimura/File Photo

August 16, 2025
ALTERNET

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), unemployment in the United States was at 4.2 percent in July — which is far from a recession. But the BLS also found that the U.S. is hurting in terms of job creation; the 4.2 percent figure largely reflects Americans who are holding on to jobs they already have rather than starting new jobs. And President Donald Trump was so angry over the BLS' job creation data that he fired ex-BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and nominated a MAGA loyalist for the position: E.J. Antoni, known for his work with the Heritage Foundation.

In an article published on August 16, Axios' Courtenay Brown lays out some reasons why so many Americans are feeling "gloomy" about the economy.

"Americans haven't been this gloomy about the job market since the Great Recession," Brown reports. "Why it matters: Fears about joblessness have surged since President Trump unveiled plans to impose steep tariffs on foreign goods. The economy might have hit a soft patch, but it has so far dodged the bleak predictions from a few months ago."

Nonetheless, Brown notes that "consumers are still bracing for the worst to come."

"As of early August," Brown explains, "that pessimism was in step with that of the 2008 financial crisis. About 62 percent of consumers believe unemployment will worsen in the year ahead, according to the University of Michigan's latest monthly survey. That's bounced around a little in the last few months, but consistently hung around levels not seen since the Great Recession…. The concerns about higher unemployment are paired with worries about an inflation resurgence."

The University of Michigan's consumer report was released on August 15.

Joanne Hsu, the report's director, is quoted as saying, "Although CPI inflation has not surged, our data show that consumers are still bracing for an increase in inflation to come. Moreover, consumers are also concerned that labor markets will weaken."

Brown notes that The Great Recession was the United States' "worst economic downturn since the Great Depression."

When the stock market crashed in 1929, U.S. unemployment was only 3.2 percent, according to Investopedia. By 1932, it was up to 23 percent. Americans were so angry about the economy that year that Democratic presidential nominee Franklin Delano Roosevelt defeated incumbent GOP President Herbert Hoover by a landslide and picked up a whopping 472 electoral votes.

The Great Recession wasn't as severe as The Great Depression, but Brown recalls that in late 2008 and 2009, "The stock market was falling off a cliff, unemployment filings soared and the jobless rate would ultimately peak at 10 percent."

Brown continues, "Now: The economy is slowing, though fears are worse than the official data suggests so far. The unemployment rate is holding at a historically low 4.2 percent, as of July. Hiring has stalled, but so have layoffs. There are fewer unemployment filings now than in July 2021, when a record-low share of Americans (14 percent) said they anticipated higher unemployment in the year ahead."

Read Courtenay Brown's full report for Axios at this link.


'Buyer’s remorse': Trump’s consumer confidence drops below Biden levels


U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference about deploying federal law enforcement agents in Washington to bolster the local police presence, in the Press Briefing Room at the White House

August 15, 2025  
ALTERNET

U.S. Consumers appear to be dreading their Trumpian future, according to the University of Michigan’s most recent Consumer Sentiment Index.

“Consumer sentiment fell back about 5 percent in August, declining for the first time in four months,” according to the report. “This deterioration largely stems from rising worries about inflation.”

Preliminary results for the month showed consumer confidence down 13.7 percent from a year ago, during former President Joe Biden's term. Despite confidence being higher under the last administration, voters still rolled Biden out of office, largely based on economic dissatisfaction at high prices.

The report also revealed that consumers continue to expect both inflation and unemployment to deteriorate in the future, with “year-ahead inflation expectations” rising from 4.5 percent last month to 4.9 percent this month.

“This increase was seen across multiple demographic groups and all three political affiliations,” the report adds.

The numbers put an end to two consecutive months of receding inflation for short-run expectations and three straight months for long-run expectations.

Social media reacted badly to Bloomberg Reporter Joe Weisenthal posting the “ugly consumer sentiment numbers,” and blamed President Donald Trump for much of the anxiety.

“It’s incredible how back we are,” one commenter snidely posted on X, while another pointed out how thoroughly “the media buried Biden's presidency using data points like this but seem oddly disinterested now that Trump is back in charge.”

Another online commenter posted: “Buyer's remorse is hitting folks earlier than expected,” and blamed the courts, the media, corporate America, the Congressional GOP, and the GOP base for failing to provide “any check on Trump.”

Still another X user warned that “we are just now seeing increasing wholesale inflation as businesses have eaten through their pre-tariff glut. That means we are almost certainly going to see higher prices hitting the shelves very soon."

See the preliminary numbers at this link.


Tariff revenue fails to curb US deficit as July spending hits record highs

An Egyptian man walks past a poster showing a U.S. dollar outside an exchange office in Cairo, Egypt. November 2016.
Copyright Copyright 2016 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

By Una Hajdari
Published on 

Even with customs revenue quadrupling under new tariffs, record-high spending on benefits, healthcare and debt interest drove the largest monthly deficit in US history.

The US federal deficit surged to $291 billion (€248bn) in July, marking a 19% increase from the same month last year and one of the biggest jumps in recent years, according to Treasury Department data.

It’s the largest spending total ever recorded for the month of July, though some other months—particularly during the peak of COVID-19 stimulus—saw even higher outlays overall.

Even though the country is now earning more from tariffs—customs receipts were multiplied by four, going from about $7.1 billion (€6.06bn) in July 2024 to roughly $27.7 billion (€23.7bn) this year—this was not enough to offset a sharp rise in spending.

Why is the US federal deficit increasing?

Spending rose as bigger Social Security checks, increased Medicare and Medicaid costs, and higher interest payments on the national debt combined with pricier defence, education and healthcare programs, pushing the July deficit to a record high

The July figure follows a volatile stretch in the federal government’s monthly balances, driven in part by new import duties and the quirks of the fiscal calendar.

In May, the deficit narrowed to $316 billion (€269.8bn), or $219 billion (€187bn) when adjusted for timing differences, as tariff revenue from newly imposed import taxes provided an early windfall. June appeared at first to show a rare surplus, but this was largely an illusion—when adjusted for payment shifts, the month actually posted a $71 billion (€60.6bn) defici

July’s return to a deep shortfall underscores a broader fiscal reality. Namely, while tariffs have injected tens of billions into the Treasury in recent months, they have not changed the structural imbalance between revenue and expenditure. Spending has continued to outpace receipts, even amid healthy customs income.

June’s brief surplus aside, the government’s shortfall remains substantial, with one-off revenue boosts from tariffs unable to contain the impact of persistent, broad-based spending growth. As the Treasury’s figures show, even months of record customs collections have done little to slow the pace of red ink.