It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
The financial and operational networks that undergird Iran's sanctioned oil trade pass through Dubai, where they operate in the shadows in a lightly-regulated market. That may soon become a problem for Tehran. According to the Wall Street Journal, the UAE - growing tired of Iran's missile and drone attacks - has warned the Iranian government that in retaliation, it may start seizing assets linked to these shell companies.
The freewheeling business environment of the UAE's free trade zone system has been a home for sanctioned oil trading for years, both for Iranian and Russian grades. The shadow fleet of tankers that serve gray-market crude is managed in no small part out of Dubai. As an example, one of the most prominent shadow fleet operators to work in the city, Indian shipowner Capt. Jugwinder Singh Brar, has been accused by the U.S. Treasury of working with Yemen's al-Jamal network to move Iranian oil - a double violation of U.S. sanctions. Brar stands accused of using his fleet of small tankers to pick up Iranian oil cargoes, then blending them with other grades to obfuscate the real source. "The Iranian regime relies on its network of unscrupulous shippers and brokers like Brar and his companies to enable its oil sales and finance its destabilizing activities," said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last year.
Operations like Brar's now-sanctioned network could be a target of opportunity for the UAE, which could use asset seizures to clamp down on Iranian oil smuggling. Iran's kinetic attacks threaten to undermine the Emirates' carefully cultivated reputation for security and stability, the ingredients underpinning the runaway success of Dubai as a luxury destination and financial hub. Iran's drone and missile attacks have created unwanted optics: well-publicized strikes on a hotel, the city's U.S. consulate, and on a tank farm at Fujairah have caused damage to physical infrastructure, but the potential for reputational damage is even more concerning.
An asset seizure targeting Iran's facilitator network in the UAE could be a devastating blow. The Treasury believes that UAE-based front companies account for about 60 percent of the covert Iranian financial activity that passes through the American banking system, the Journal reports, suggesting a target-rich environment.
Beyond financial measures, the UAE is contemplating direct action to seize Iranian shadow fleet tankers in Emirati waters, officials told the WSJ - a major escalation for a nation that maintained neutrality between the U.S. and Iran just last week.
Iranian Bomb Boat Targeted Sonangol Tanker off Kuwait
New footage appears to suggest that Iranian forces used a drone boat to attack the tanker Sonangol Namibe off the coast of Kuwait.
The tanker was at anchor about 30 nm to the southeast of Kuwait's Mubarak al Kabeer port on Wednesday night when an explosion occurred on the port side. The hull was penetrated and the ship has taken on water, according to UKMTO. However, there were no injuries, and the blast did not start a fire, according to the security agency.
The vessel was in ballast at the time of the blast, but satellite imaging taken the day after the strike shows a small petroleum slick emanating from the tanker.
The strike expanded the proven kinetic risk zone to the far northeastern end of the Gulf, confirming the possibility of an Iranian strike at any location within the area. It also showed that the threat picture for shipping will continue to include surface attacks, even though Iran's larger combatant vessels have substantially been eliminated by U.S. forces.
Iran is a longtime operator of unmanned bomb boats: it began providing the technology to Yemen's Houthi rebel group years before the concept was adopted and developed by Ukraine. Drone boats require a different defense strategy to prevent kinetic strikes, and they are difficult to defeat in swarms, as demonstrated by the Black Sea campaign targeting Russian warships and tankers.
The strike may have outsize importance for regional energy production. According to local Basra News, Sonangol Namibe was due to call at an Iraqi loading terminal to take on oil. Iraq is so short on shoreside storage space that it has begun to shut in production; A proven threat to tanker tonnage in Iraq has more immediate implications for the global crude oil supply than a similar threat in Saudi Arabia or the UAE, as Iraq's tank farm capacity is low and any production shut-in will take weeks to restart.
The UKMTO has reported an apparent attack on a tanker at a position off the coast of Kuwait, resulting in a hull breach.
The tanker - identified as the Suezmax Sonangol Namibe - was at anchor about 30 nm to the southeast of Kuwait's Mubarak al Kabeer port on Wednesday night. An explosion occurred on the port side, witnessed by the master. A small craft was seen departing the scene.
The blast penetrated a cargo tank, resulting in a spill of oil in the water, according to UKMTO. In a later statement, the operator said that a ballast tank was breached, but that no oil was spilled. The ship has taken on water as well, according to UKMTO.
No fires have been reported, and the crew are unharmed. Contrary to the initial report, the vessel was in ballast at the time of the blastInvestigations into the circumstances of the attack are under way.
The apparent attack is materially different from other recent maritime strikes in the region, in several ways. Geographically, it is the furthest point west from the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting that the warlike risk zone fully spans the length of the Arabian Gulf. The presence of a small craft also suggests a hand-placed charge - a limpet mine - which would be consistent with past operations attributed to Iran.
In June 2019, two vessels were hit by suspected limpet mine attacks in the Gulf of Oman. One of the devices was spotted intact on the hull of the tanker Kokuka Courageous, and it closely resembled a known Iranian device, according to U.S. Central Command. Suspected Iranian operatives removed the device and departed before U.S. forces could arrive. Cmdr. Sean Kido, a dive team leader with CENTCOM, told Reuters at the time that blast damage elsewhere on the Kokuka Courageous was consistent with a limpet mine attack - not an airborne munition.
Positioning of Unladen Tankers Signals Shipping's Risk-Reward Calculations
Still expecting to profit: empty tankers lined up off Fujairah, Khor Fakkan and Dibba (MarineTraffic)
Shipowners and managers, and ultimately ship masters, have the ultimate responsibility for assessing risk to their vessels and their cargoes. Governments may be keen to persuade operators that the coast is clear, in support of attaining political objectives, but captains always need to be the final arbiter, not the least because lives are at risk.
Hence the behavior of tankers, in particular those with freedom of movement outside the Gulf, gives an indication of how the non-government world is assessing the potential course of the ongoing war with Iran.
If unladen tankers give up holding off Fujairah and Oman, then it is because they assess the risk of loading from terminals on the Gulf of Oman outweighs the reward of record profits to be had from Mideast-to-Asia voyages - or, alternatively, that there is little prospect of the Straits of Hormuz being opened up in the short term. For such tankers, the commercial choice then is to sail away and to find cargoes elsewhere.
From insiders in the oil and gas trading community, it appears that some regard it as too risky to load at present. But most of the unladen tankers off Fujairah and Oman are still sticking around, implying that ship owners and managers consider there is a good prospect of the Iranian grip over the Straits of Hormuz being broken soon. There are for example 17 unladen LNG carriers currently loitering in the Gulf of Oman off Ras al Hadd, numbers not depleted by more than one or two who have given up waiting. This implies there is confidence that the American war plan will move - once local air superiority is achieved - to suppressing the still-active drone threat.
The Iranian threat extends well beyond the immediate Strait of Hormuz area, as it appears that Iran has the wider objective of closing down all oil and gas movements within the region, presumably with the objective of mobilizing oil and gas consuming nations - and China in particular - to press for a cessation of hostilities.
This threat the Gulf nations are having to deal with on their own, with the Americans clearly having their hands full dealing with the primary threat from Iran. But it seems extraordinary that Western nations, and other consumer nations in Asia, do not consider that their national and economic security interests need to be protected and defended from these Iranian attacks. On the contrary, the British Prime Minister, for example, speaking in the House of Commons on March 4, appeared to be only concerned with evacuating British citizens from the area - seemingly unconcerned about the lack of Royal Navy presence in the Gulf or capability to defend other British interests and those of historic and economic partners.
Bandar Abbas Naval Harbor Smoking from Multiple Hits
Bandar Abbas Naval Harbor at 12.00 (UTC) on March 2 (Sentinel-2/CJRC) Yellow: berth of IRINS Kurdestan (K442). Red: berth recently of 2 x Moudge Class frigates. Blue: Berth area of IRINS Zagros (H313) and Hengam Class logistic vessels.
Imagery taken over Bandar Abbas at midday (UTC) on March 2 shows the Naval Harbor wreathed in black smoke. From the smoke pattern and dispersal, it appears that there have been at least three strikes on ships berthed in the harbor.
The heat spots are confirmed in NASA FIRMS imagery, which suggests that the heat spots were initiated perhaps up to 24 hours previously.
The regular Iranian Navy (Nedaja) has consistently moored classes of ships on particular berths in the Naval Harbor, making it easy to predict which ships lie beneath the smoke. Moreover, clear imagery of the harbor was obtained in the immediate days before the launch of Operation Epic Fury, so that one can make a good guess from which particular ships smoke is belching.
At its normal pier in the outer harbor, still afloat, is IRINS Kurdestan (K442), or possibly IRINS Makran (K441), still on fire at its stern.
These two converted tankers have given the Nedaja the ability to provide logistic support for long-range deployments, a capability that the Nedaja lost when IRINS Kharg (K431) caught fire and sank in mysterious circumstances off the coast of Jask on June 2, 2021.
The dockside alongside which three Moudge Class frigates were moored several days ago is ablaze along its length. The vessels concerned, therefore, may be IRINS Sabalan (F73), IRINS Sahand (F74), and/or IRINS Jamaran (F76), which had been spotted moored here on February 27. It has been tentatively reported, however, that IRINS Jamaran (F76) was sunk alongside its berth at the Konarak Naval Base in Chah Bahar.
A large area of smoke covers the area where the Moudge Class intelligence collection frigate IRINS Zagros (H313) is normally berthed, which in turn is adjacent to a pier that normally is home to Hengam Class logistic vessels, veteran but heavily used in support of short and medium range deployments.
On the eastern side of the Naval Harbor, the piers which normally house Kaman Class fast attack craft, and Kilo and Fateh Class diesel electric submarines, are not covered by smoke. Potentially targets in this area could have sunk, hiding any indicators of attack beneath the waters of the harbor.
The evident damage apparent in the imagery of the harbor correlates with the statement from President Donald Trump that nine Iranian Navy ships have been destroyed in Operation Epic Fury. U.S. Central Command on Monday also claimed to have sunk the drone carrier Shahid Bagheri, saying U.S. forces had struck the ship within hours of launching Operation Epic Fury. However, it should be noted that these easy targets were all old ships, which tended to be used for conventional naval operations, rather than the missile-equipped speed boats and fast attack craft used by the IRGC Navy in harassment operations in the Straits of Hormuz.
Jebel Ali Port Resumes Operations as Most Regional Ports Remain Operational
Jebel Ali, the largest container port in the region, briefly suspended operations (DP World)
After widespread reports of a possible missile strike and a fire at the Jebel Ali Port in Dubai, operations resumed on Monday. Most ports across the Middle East report operations are continuing despite the efforts by the Iranians to target ports as part of their campaign to disrupt the region.
Videos circulating online showed a smoke cloud rising from the container port in Dubai, creating concerns as Jebel Ali is the largest port in the region. In addition to being a key import and export location, it is a transshipment hub for much of the region. Reports began circulating that operations were suspended.
The Dubai City Defense force confirmed that it was quickly able to bring the fire under control with minimal damage. Officials are asserting that it was debris from a successful intercept of a drone that caused the fire and not a missile or drone strike on the port. Dubai, however, has been one of the areas heavily targeted by the Iranians, with reports of multiple intercepts and strikes, including on hotels and residential buildings.
DP World, which operates the container port, is saying operations were suspended as a precaution, and they undertook a safety review. As of Sunday evening local time, March 1, it was reporting that all four terminals were operating normally. The Dubai Ports Authority confirmed the operations while saying it was “monitoring developments closely” and would remain in close coordination with the relevant authorities. It said that “enhanced safety and security measures” would remain in place across the Jebel Ali Port.
Ports in the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Qatar, as well as further afield in Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, Israel, and Cyprus, are also said to be operating normally. Inchcape, one of the leaders in providing port services, compiled a comprehensive report on the status of the port.
Ports in Bahrain have reportedly suspended operations temporarily, while Oman has partial restrictions. This comes after the countries were targeted by the Iranians. The Oman News Agency had earlier reported that two drones had targeted the port area and that one person was injured.
The key LNG terminals have, however, also been closed after their operations came under attack. Citing safety concerns, Qatar Energy said it had suspended operations at its Ras Laffan facility, with Inchcape also reporting that Qatar had suspended processing crew visas at Ras Laffan Port. Severe GPS signal interference was also being reported at Ras Laffan.
While the ports remain mostly operational, ships have stopped transits of the Straits of Hormuz due to the repeated attacks by the Iranians and a suspension of war risk insurance. In addition, many of the major shipping lines are reporting that they have placed restrictions on operations. MSC Mediterranean Shipping reported that it was suspending all bookings of the Middle East, while Ocean Network Express also reported it will temporarily suspend acceptance of new bookings for cargo moving both to and from the Persian Gulf until further notice. Maersk and HAPAG-Lloyd were among the companies that reported their vessels would stop transits in the Persian Gulf region. Maersk reported it was suspending reefer, dangerous/special cargo acceptance in and out of UAE, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, and not taking new bookings, including to parts of the Indian subcontinent. It also said all vessels would divert from the Suez Canal – Red Sea corridor.
In response to the ongoing missile attacks, U.S. commanders said they were focusing on quickly addressing Iran’s capabilities to strike neighboring facilities. U.S. Central Command reported on Monday, March 2, that because “Iran continues to maliciously launch ballistic missiles, indiscriminately targeting military and civilian locations throughout the region,” its efforts were being increased. It reported overnight that the massive B-1 bombers had been deployed to strike deep inside Iran to degrade Iranian ballistic missile capabilities. The U.S. released videos of mobile missile launchers being targeted and destroyed, while Iran responded with a video of underground bunkers storing large numbers of drones and missiles that it said it would be launching at the American forces and their supporters.
Cruise Lines Navigate Gulf Conflict Amidst Continued Iranian Strikes
Given the centrality of the oil trade to the GCC states, tankers have rightfully received the most attention of any vessel class in the new conflict in the Gulf. But cruising is increasingly popular in the region, and at least half a dozen cruise ships are in the affected area - including some which may be staying longer than expected due to ongoing Iranian strikes.
One of these vessels is newly homeported in the region. The Saudi cruise ship Aroya Manara (ex name World Dream) is currently moored in Dubai, and independent operator Aroya is deferring plans for a round-trip cruise through the Strait of Hormuz to visit Muscat.
Many others are temporarily based in the UAE or Qatar. German firm TUI Cruises has two vessels berthed in the area - the Mein Schiff 4 in Abu Dhabi and the Mein Schiff 5 in Doha. Abu Dhabi was attacked by Iran in a missile strike over the weekend, and passengers aboard Mein Schiff 4 were able to see Iranian drones hit the water from on board the vessel. Mein Schiff 5 is scheduled to conduct a series of round-trip cruises in the Gulf, and was slated to depart Doha on Saturday.
TUI has temporarily suspended sailings for both vessels, but it is unclear when passengers or crew will be able to depart: with airspace restrictions in place, travel in or out of the GCC is currently difficult.
Shipping giant MSC's cruise division has one vessel currently moored at Doha, MSC Euribia. The ship has about 5,000 passengers on board from its previous voyage, but it will not be departing as planned for its next seven-night cruise in the Arabian Gulf. Instead, it will be staying in port "due to the current situation and the air space closure in the Middle East."
Privately-held Celestyal Cruises, based in Athens, operates two cruise ships; both are in the Gulf, west of Hormuz. The line said in a statement Sunday that the next departures for Celestyal Journey (departing Doha) and Celestyal Discovery (departing Dubai) have been canceled: both were due to sail on Monday, but the line intends to put passenger and crew safety first in light of current circumstances. Guests of the Journey have the option to stay aboard or to go ashore in Doha, but authorities in Dubai have instructed Celestyal Discovery not to disembark passengers for the time being. The UAE has suspended all flights to and from Dubai amidst ongoing Iranian missile and drone attacks, so passengers would have few options for onward travel.
A key figure in Hezbollah’s smuggling operations in Lebanon, and a godfather figure in particular in the Beirut docks, Wafiq Safa resigned his formal position on February 6 as head of Hezbollah’s Liaison and Coordination Unit.
Wafiq Safa is regarded as having had a crucial role for at least 25 years in the organization of Hezbollah smuggling activities through the Port of Beirut. In all likelihood, he was behind a scheme to pilfer the cargo of 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate stored in the Port of Beirut dockside warehouse where it had been offloaded from the impounded MV Rhosus (IMO 8630344) in 2014. By the time the remaining estimated 552 tons exploded on August 2020, most of the ammonium nitrate had probably been shipped to the Syrian government for use in explosives manufacture.
Wafiq Safa, Hezbollah’s Head of Liaison and Coordination, in happier times. After recovery from an Israeli air strike, one of the few senior Hezbollah figures to survive 2024, Wafiq Safa until recently remained a key figure in Hezbollah’s smuggling operations (Tasnim / CC BY)
What is less in doubt is that since the explosion in 2020, which killed 218, injured thousands and devastated the port and a wide area of central Beirut, Wafiq Safa has played a key role in sabotaging the investigation of the incident. This involved getting the investigation by the resolutely brave Judge Tarek Bitar temporarily closed down, but also the murder of four witnesses with crucial evidence who would have testified to Judge Bitar.
Israeli sources reported that journalist Lukman Slim, photographer Joe Bejjani, and two Beirut Port customs officials, Joseph Skaff and Mounir Abou Rjeily, had been murdered by Hezbollah’s internal security Unit 121, to prevent them from testifying.
Unit 121 has a history of murdering even loyal Hezbollah members as a preventative measure to ensure that secrets remain secret, and Wafiq Safa is probably lucky to have avoided a similar fate – so far. By unusually allowing Wafiq Safa to step down, Hezbollah may be signaling that it seeks to reset its relationship with the Lebanese authorities, which in recent months has become increasingly strained as the Lebanese government asserts national sovereignty. Hezbollah has nominated Ahmed Muhanna to be Wafiq Safa’s replacement.
This may be good news for the continuing clampdown on Hezbollah’s smuggling operations. Wafiq Safa’s portfolio of talents covered smuggling (working with the IRGC’s Unit 190) and clandestine control of the Port of Beirut, as well as political liaison. But Ahmed Muhanna’s CV is weak on smuggling and more focused on political and diplomatic engagement. Moreover, with Israel wary of renewed threats from the north, Hezbollah leaders and operatives tend to remain alive only if they are relatively ineffective.
Management and development of the Port of Beirut was taken over by CMA CGM in March 2022, with the French firm having previously taken control of the Tripoli container port in 2021. Under the new CMA CGM regime, these ports are less likely to be used for bulk importation of obviously military items, but smaller and dual-use items will still be sneaked through, albeit in lesser volumes.
The focus for seaborne smuggling may now switch to coastal tramps sailing from Turkey and using small unregulated ports and fishing harbors along the length of the Lebanese coast. Syrian security forces continue to make seizures in border areas of arms and ammunition destined for Hezbollah.
The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.
Bulgaria arrests Russian owner of ship at centre of Beirut port blast that killed 218
The arrest of Igor Grechushkin comes nearly five years after a Lebanese investigative judge issued two arrest warrants through Interpol for him and the vessel's captain.
Copyright AP Photo By Gavin Blackburn Published on 15/09/2025 - EURONEWS
The Russian owner of a cargo ship linked to a supply of ammonium nitrate at the centre of the massive Beirut port explosion in 2020 has been arrested in Bulgaria, Lebanese judicial officials said on Monday.
The arrest of Igor Grechushkin comes nearly five years after a Lebanese investigative judge issued two arrest warrants through Interpol for him and the vessel's captain, Boris Prokoshev, also a Russian national.
The judicial officials said papers are being prepared requesting the transfer of Grechushkin to Lebanon for questioning.
They said that if Grechushkin is not handed over, Lebanese investigators could travel to Bulgaria to question him there.
Wounded people are evacuated as smoke rises from a massive explosion in Beirut, 4 August, 2020 AP Photo
The four Lebanese judicial officials said Grechushkin, who also has Cypriot nationality, was arrested last week at Vasil Levski Sofia airport after arriving on a flight from Cyprus.
They spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations.
Authorities in Bulgaria have been approached for comment. Probe ongoing
The 4 August 2020 blast killed at least 218 people and wounded more than 6,000 others. It devastated large swaths of Beirut and caused billions of euros in damages.
No Lebanese official has been convicted in connection with the incident.
Earlier this year, Lebanon elected President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and a Cabinet on a reformist platform who pledged to complete a probe and hold the perpetrators to account.
Authorities said the disaster was triggered by a fire in a warehouse where a vast stockpile of industrial chemical ammonium nitrate had been haphazardly stored for years.
Graffiti written by Lebanese citizens in front of the scene of the explosion at the port of Beirut, 9 August, 2020 AP Photo
The blast struck amid an economic collapse that the World Bank has dubbed one of the worst in recent history and which is widely blamed on a governing elite accused of corruption and mismanagement.
Since its early days, the probe into the explosion has faced a slew of political and legal challenges.
In December 2020, lead investigator Fadi Sawan charged former prime minister Hassan Diab and three ex-ministers with negligence.
As political pressure mounted, Sawan was removed from the case.
But investigative judge Tarek Bitar summoned senior political, judicial and security officials in July in a renewed push to close the case.
Additional sources AP
Bulgarian Police Arrest Owner o Beirut's Notorious Explosives Shi
Officials in Bulgaria have arrested the owner of the Rhosus, the aging freighter that brought a cargo of explosives-grade ammonium nitrate into Beirut in 2013. In 2020, that cargo exploded, destroying half the port and killing more than 200 people.
The cargo of ammonium nitrate entered Beirut’s port on the Moldovan-flagged ship Rhosus in November 2013. The vessel was detained for PSC deficiencies and seized by port officials. Her cargo was a consignment of 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate, officially intended for a mining firm in Mozambique, but mechanical issues forced the ship to call in Beirut (or to pick up more paying cargo, depending on the account). Rhosus never left: it was detained for PSC deficiencies, then abandoned by the owner, and it later sank at a pier. The cargo was moved to a warehouse on the grain pier, where it stayed until its detonation on August 4, 2020.
After the blast, the FBI estimated that the actual amount that detonated was about one-fifth of that, indicating that a portion of the cargo had been surreptitiously removed. The site had known security gaps: welders were working to secure the doors of the warehouse facility on the day of the blast, and likely triggered the explosion.
Attention quickly focused on the Rhosus' role in the tragedy, and on the owners who abandoned it. Shortly after the investigation into the blast got under way, the investigating judge on the case (at the time) issued an international arrest warrant for the captain and for the owner, Russian-Cypriot dual national Igor Grechushkin. His role in the vessel's operation is disputed: the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) has identified another Cypriot shipping magnate as the vessel's ultimate beneficial owner, and based on OCCRP's paper trail, Grechuschkin appears to have been chartering the vessel.
Grechushkin has been subject to an arrest warrant for many years, but with little effect. This may be in part because of the status of the Lebanese investigation. After the blast, the inquiry almost immediately focused in on the Lebanese political figures who allowed the explosives to sit on a dock near a residential district. The suspects began to fight back: certain officials worked to have the investigating judge removed, and the inquiry under replacement Judge Tarek Bitar also stalled. The case became an oft-cited and unpopular example of self-dealing by powerful members of Lebanon's political class.
After years of stagnation, the investigation got a reboot in January 2025 thanks to the newly-elected government of Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. They campaigned on a pledge to seek justice for the thousands of people who were displaced, injured or killed by the blast, and immediately empowered Bitar to move forward. That inquiry is showing signs of progress at last, and Grechuschkin's arrest is among the first tangible steps.
Tuesday, August 05, 2025
Five years after Beirut port explosion justice and recovery remain elusive
Five years after the deadly explosion at Beirut’s port on 4 August 2020, many Lebanese are still struggling with loss, trauma and broken lives.
Issued on: 04/08/2025 - RFI
The destroyed silos in the port of Beirut on 1 August 2025, five years after the colossal explosion of 4 August 2020. AFP - JOSEPH EID
The blast, caused by hundreds of tonnes of badly stored ammonium nitrate, killed 235 people and injured more than 6,500. It tore through the capital, flattening homes, damaging businesses and gutting historic neighbourhoods.
It was one of the most powerful non-nuclear explosions ever recorded. Beirut was left in ruins. The shockwave could be felt for kilometres. But five years on, there is still no justice, no clear answers and no full recovery.
From the outset, the investigation has faced relentless political obstruction. The first judge tasked with the case, Fadi Sawan, was removed in early 2021 after charging two former ministers – Ali Hassan Khalil and Ghazi Zeaïter – both close allies of powerful political figures.
His successor, Judge Tarek Bitar, has shown determination to press on despite enormous pressure. He upheld the charges and issued arrest warrants for numerous politicians, officials, and port employees.
However, Bitar’s efforts have sparked fierce resistance, particularly from Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, who claim the probe is politically motivated.
This culminated in armed clashes during a protest in October 2021, tragically echoing Lebanon’s civil war. Since then, dozens of legal appeals have been filed to stall the investigation, with the process grinding to a near halt for over a year.
There is now renewed hope. Since January 2025, under a new government less beholden to political factions, Bitar has resumed his work.
With support from the current prosecutor, several fresh arrest warrants have been issued. There are signs that an indictment could finally be issued before the year’s end, potentially paving the way for long-awaited trials.
A metal installation set up across from the Beirut port with a view of its destroyed silos, shows a judge's gavel with a message calling for justice on August 1, 2025, as Lebanon prepares to mark the 5th anniversary of the August 4 harbour explosion that killed more than 250 people and injured thousands AFP - JOSEPH EID
The ambiguity surrounding the cause of the explosion has left insurance payouts in limbo.
Whether the blast is classified as an accident or a terrorist act significantly affects compensation – delays that have left thousands in financial uncertainty.
Added to this is the collapse of the Lebanese state. Bankrupt, politically paralysed, and deeply mistrusted by international donors, the government has failed to lead a proper reconstruction effort.
Corruption and incompetence have blocked plans and funding, and no cohesive state-led strategy has been implemented.
But amidst the frustration, there is resilience. Many residents and small business owners, refusing to be defeated by bureaucracy or despair, have pressed on with rebuilding on their own, relying on community solidarity and limited private support.
Lebanon is no stranger to hardship. Yet five years since the port disaster, the lack of closure continues to cast a long shadow over the country.
Wednesday, May 14, 2025
Uncovering the evolution of Hezbollah’s political communication strategy
Analysis of coverage by Hezbollah’s news outlet reveals the party’s strategic stance towards rival parties in Lebanon
Quantitative text analysis of news coverage by Al-Manar suggests Hezbollah’s stance towards rival parties in Lebanon is driven by strategic considerations.
Credit: Prof. Kota Suechika from Ritsumeikan University, Japan
Lebanon’s consociational democracy is geared towards maintaining political stability in a society that is deeply divided along religious lines. Under this power-sharing system, seats in the parliament and top government offices are allocated to representatives of the nation’s major religious sects. However, the democratic system is characterized by severe political rivalry, which has often resulted in political vacuums. The lack of political consensus has resulted in major positions such as the seat of president laying vacant for several months and severe delays in government formation.
Hezbollah, a major political party in Lebanon, is often blamed for the dysfunction in the country’s democracy. Although Hezbollah plays a leading role in the political coalition, the March 8 Forces, and actively participates in the electoral process, the party continues to maintain its military wing, the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon. Hezbollah is also known to take hardline stances against rival parties, particularly during disputes over disarmament of its military wing.
In a recent study, Professor Kota Suechika from the College of International Relations, Ritsumeikan University, Japan, examined Hezbollah’s political communication strategy towards its rival parties from 2017 to 2023 by conducting a quantitative text analysis of news articles from Al-Manar, the party’s primary media outlet. The findings of the study were published in Nationalism and Ethnic Politics on 20 April 2025.
The analysis of tone of coverage in Hezbollah’s main media outlet revealed Hezbollah’s rational, strategic, and pragmatic political stance in its political communication. In addition, it was found that Hezbollah was increasingly critical of its rival parties during nationwide crises like the October 17 Revolution and the Beirut port blast. The party also adopted a more critical stance during confrontations with Israel. Moreover, it became more cooperative with its rival parties after the restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, it expressed more positive views of its rivals during parliamentary election campaigns.
“This study by employing quantitative text analysis methodologically contributes to an underdeveloped area of Arabic-language political discourse in Middle Eastern studies. The findings of the study revealed that Hezbollah’s political communication is shaped by institutional constraints and strategic considerations within Lebanon’s consociational democracy, challenging the essentialist interpretations of Hezbollah’s conduct,” explains Prof. Suechika.
Thus, the study presents a novel approach, diverging from the primary concept of Islamism or sectarianism. It further highlights that the party is strategically choosing the best option for the organization’s survival in a changing Lebanon’s internal and external political environment. This suggests that Lebanon’s socio-economic and political crises stemmed not from Hezbollah’s uncompromising political stance but from the inherent failures of the consociational democracy itself, which fosters unaccountable elite rule of Lebanon’s long-lasting sectarian oligarchy.
“This paper is a practical example of Area Studies 2.0, which can address the issues of prejudice and discrimination faced by the Middle East and more broadly, the Islamic world from other regions by promoting data-driven and evidence-based research,” concludesProf. Suechika.
About Ritsumeikan University, Japan Ritsumeikan University is one of the most prestigious private universities in Japan. Its main campus is in Kyoto, where inspiring settings await researchers. With an unwavering objective to generate social symbiotic values and emergent talents, it aims to emerge as a next-generation research-intensive university. It will enhance researcher potential by providing support best suited to the needs of young and leading researchers, according to their career stage. Ritsumeikan University also endeavors to build a global research network as a “knowledge node” and disseminate achievements internationally, thereby contributing to the resolution of social/humanistic issues through interdisciplinary research and social implementation.
About ProfessorKota Suechika from Ritsumeikan University, Japan Dr. Kota Suechika is a Professor at the College of International Relations, as well as the Director of the Center for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies (CMEIS) at Ritsumeikan University, Japan. He is a scholar of Middle Eastern politics and obtained his MA degree from CMEIS at the University of Durham and his Ph.D. from Kyoto University. His research interests focus on conflict and authoritarianism, with particular attention to Islamists and non-state actors in the Middle East.
Funding information This work was supported by the JSPS KAKENHI under Grant Numbers JP23H00043, JP22KK0018, and JP19H04374.
Wafiq Safa, Hezbollah’s Head of Liaison and Coordination, in happier times. After recovery from an Israeli air strike, one of the few senior Hezbollah figures to survive 2024, Wafiq Safa until recently remained a key figure in Hezbollah’s smuggling operations (
