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Sunday, November 15, 2026

 

Researchers solved a physics puzzle about radiation. It could lead to tougher electronics.




North Carolina State University

Why does radiation sometimes make electronics explode?

image: 

Researchers have solved a longstanding physics puzzle, explaining why electronic devices can fail catastrophically when exposed to radiation in what is called single-event burnout (SEB). Their findings may hold the key to engineering new electronics that can better withstand extreme environments, with applications ranging from nuclear energy to space exploration. The optical microscope images shown here are of an irradiated diode before and after an SEB event, showing the catastrophic damage inflicted by a single energetic particle.

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Credit: Cristyan Quiñones, NC State University






Researchers have solved a longstanding physics puzzle, explaining why electronic devices can fail catastrophically when exposed to radiation. Their findings may hold the key to engineering new electronics that can better withstand extreme environments, with applications ranging from nuclear energy to space exploration.

The discovery stems from work the researchers were doing on aluminum nitride (AlN), which is an ultrawide bandgap semiconductor. That means AlN can be used in electronic devices that handle large power loads. In theory, AlN also holds promise for use in extreme environments, such as radioactive settings.

To test that theory, the researchers wanted to explore a phenomenon called single-event burnout (SEB), which is when an electronic device is exposed to radiation and a single energetic particle causes catastrophic failure in the device – making the device inoperable and causing structural damage. SEB occurs when high voltage is applied to a device that is exposed to radiation. Different devices can handle different amounts of voltage before SEB occurs.

“We wanted to characterize AlN electronics that we pioneered to see how much power the electronics could handle before SEB took place,” says Cristyan Quiñones, corresponding author of a paper on the work and a recent Ph.D. graduate from North Carolina State University.

“The design of a device affects how much voltage a semiconductor material can sustain before SEB occurs. So, if you want to compare the performance of one material to another, you have to look at electric field rather than voltage. And when we compared the electric field AlN could sustain to other semiconductors, we found that AlN could handle significantly higher fields.”

To better understand what they were seeing, the researchers analyzed the data from their experiments in conjunction with the available data on SEB in other materials. Ultimately, the researchers used computational simulations to develop an analytical model that explains the actual physics behind SEB.

“Before, we knew SEB happened, and we could test a device’s capacity to withstand SEB,” says Quiñones. “But now we know why.”

When a device is exposed to radiation, heavy ions pass through the material. These ions generate charge carriers in the material and, as voltage is applied to the device, the positive and negative charges separate. This creates a localized electric field. And when that electric field reaches a critical magnitude, it triggers an avalanche of electrons – which leads to a lot of energy being released in a very small area. In other words: kaboom. That is the SEB.

“Understanding the actual physics behind SEB is important,” says Ramón Collazo, co-author of the paper and a professor of materials science and engineering at NC State. “Because understanding allows for the possibility of engineering materials for use in radiation-resistant devices, as well as designing more resistant devices themselves.

“We could not do that before, because we did not know what was actually happening in detail,” says Collazo. “This new understanding means we can develop design rules to harden devices against radiation and minimize the damage caused by SEB.”

The researchers tested their analytical model to see whether it was capable of explaining the observed SEB data from other devices and materials and found that it fit the data.

“Our model was able to explain what we were seeing across the board,” says Quiñones. “It was exciting.”

“We think this model will be a valuable tool for developing devices with applications ranging from nuclear energy and space exploration to biomedical technologies and fusion experimentation,” says Collazo.

The paper, “Single-event burnout of AlN diodes under heavy-ion irradiation,” is published in IEEE Transactions on Nuclear Science. The paper was co-authored by Michael Carter, a Ph.D. student at NC State; Zlatko Sitar, the Kobe Steel Distinguished Professor of Materials Science and Engineering at NC State; Jason Osheroff of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; and Pramod Reddy, Dolar Khachariya, Seiji Mita and Ronny Kirste of Adroit Materials, Inc.

This work was supported in part by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under grants FA9550-24-1-0269 and FA9550-19-1-0114; the Army Research Office, under grant W911NF-22-2-0171; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, under grant HR0011-24-9-0457; and a NASA Space Technology Graduate Research Opportunity (NSTGRO 80NSSC22K1198).

Saturday, November 14, 2026

 Why Nuclear Power Won't Save Us (But Might Kill Us All)

Weekend Listening: Episode #104
Why Nuclear Power Won't Save Us (But Might Kill Us All)

with Linda Pentz Gunter
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We are joined on the podcast this month by Linda Pentz Gunter, author of No To Nuclear: Why Nuclear Power Destroys Lives, Derails Climate Progress and Provokes War.

In this episode, Linda unpacks why, contrary to popular belief, nuclear power is not a climate solution, but rather a slow, costly and dangerous distraction that also keeps the back door open to nuclear weapons proliferation.

We talk about the disastrous health impacts of radiation exposure; how uranium mining and weapons testing disproportionately affect Indigenous people and communities of colour; and why, despite its dismal track record, the industry continues to be feted in the US by Republicans and Democrats alike.

No to Nuclear is 40% off on plutobooks.com. Use the coupon PODCAST at the checkout.

Find us on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, or search for 'Radicals in Conversation' wherever you get your podcasts.

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THE AXIS OF EVIL

Trump, Xi, Putin to hold historic meeting in China: White House

Washington (United States) (AFP) – Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping will hold the first three-way meeting between the leaders of the United States, Russia and China at a summit in Shenzhen next week, the White House said Friday.


Issued on: 14/11/2026 - RFI


Trump wants to talk about reducing nuclear arsenals at the trilateral talks on Thursday and is also set to bring up his war in Iran -- but he is not expected to discuss Russia's war in Ukraine, US officials said.

The three leaders will meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in the southern Chinese city, White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales told reporters.

"The president has made it clear that, among other topics, he will discuss the reduction of nuclear weapons in the world. This proliferation, President Trump believes, is very dangerous," Wales said.

One of the major conflicts dominating Trump's second term as president will feature, but the other will not, the US officials said.


"I think the president does intend to talk about Iran in the trilateral meeting with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin," a senior US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters on a call.

Washington has a "whole other track" of negotiations with Kyiv and Moscow aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, the official added, referring to talks that US envoys have had in recent days with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

"China is not really a part of that track, so it doesn't seem appropriate to have the Ukraine discussion there," the official added.
Yalta redux?

The meeting calls back to the 1945 Yalta summit in the Soviet Union, where then-US president Franklin D. Roosevelt, Britain's Winston Churchill and Soviet leader Joseph Stalin laid out the post-WWII settlement and new territorial boundaries in Europe.

Zelensky has raised the alarm that the meeting in Shenzhen could be a Yalta-like "redistribution of spheres of influence" for the 21st century.

The Trump administration has sought to reassert US dominance over the "Western hemisphere" -- including by capturing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January -- but splitting the world among great powers like it's 1945 may not guarantee security.

Trump will also hold a bilateral working lunch and meeting with the Chinese president on Thursday -- their fourth meeting since the US president's return to power last year.

But Trump is not scheduled to have a separate one-on-one with Putin.

Among other topics, Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang's resignation over an affair with an alleged Chinese spy is not expected to come up in Trump's meetings with Xi, the officials said.

"The situation with Nvidia should not really have any bearing on the trip," a second US senior official said.

The United States also did not plan to discuss export controls on sensitive chip technology, which were at the heart of the Nvidia scandal.

"We do not negotiate American export controls. These are national security matters that we develop in the administration... and we don't expect it to figure at all in any of our conversations with the Chinese while we're there," the second official said.

Tesla and SpaceX boss Elon Musk will accompany Trump on his trip to China but will not be involved in the meeting with Xi and Putin, the officials said.

Trump will leave Washington on Monday and arrive in the Philippines on Tuesday for a summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) before heading to Shenzhen.
Germany Is Dismantling a Nord Stream Power Plant for Ukraine

By RFE/RL staff - Nov 13, 2026

Germany is dismantling the Greifswald power plant in Lubmin for transfer to Ukraine by early 2027.

The facility became economically unviable after Russian gas supplies through Nord Stream ended in 2022.

European countries are donating retired power plants and equipment to help Ukraine repair infrastructure damaged by Russian strikes.



A power plant built at the landfall of the Nord Stream gas pipelines in northeastern Germany was shut down after the pipelines were sabotaged. Now the facility is being dismantled and sent to Ukraine.

The Greifswald industrial power plant in Lubmin is majority owned by Germany’s Securing Energy for Europe (SEFE). Adrianne Montgobert, a spokesperson for the state-owned company, confirmed to RFE/RL that dismantling of the plant is currently under way, with its transfer being managed by a team from Naftogaz, Ukraine’s oil and gas giant.

The Nord Stream pipelines, which run under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, are no longer operational.

The spokesperson said in an e-mail, “all reuse and sale options [for the Lubmin plant] were explored including actual sales negotiations, but no commercially viable solution emerged.” Donating the facility to Ukraine, Montgobert added, was seen as “the best alternative to scrapping it,” after it ceased operation in April 2023.



A September 2022 file photo of the Greifswald industrial power plant, beside the German landfall of the Nord Stream gas pipelines from Russia. The facility heated gas arriving through Nord Stream 1 and supplied electricity to Germany’s power grid.

Ukraine's energy infrastructure has been repeatedly targeted by Russian strikes in recent weeks in a concerted effort to weaponize the coming months of cold and darkness. The Lubmin facility's transfer is set to be completed within "the first quarter" of 2027, Montgobert said.

An unsuccessful motion to halt the plant's transfer to Ukraine was made in May by the main opposition party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), who claimed the plant's removal would "impair future energy policy options." The AfD has supported ending military aid to Ukraine and lifting sanctions on Russia.

Gerold Juergens, president of the Western Pomerania Business Association, appeared to reference allegations Ukraine was behind the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines when he told a German media outlet, "many people's impression is: First they blow up the pipeline and then they take away the power plant. You can't explain that to anyone."

The trial of a Ukrainian special forces officer accused of leading a team in sabotaging the Nord Stream pipelines is currently under way in Hamburg. Kyiv has denied involvement in the explosions that ruptured three of the four undersea Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022.

Montgobert said the decision to gift the Greifswald facility to Kyiv “has been met with understanding” from the workers who ran the plant. Its dismantling has “proceeded smoothly, with no reported concerns from long-time employees or managers,” Montgobert said.



An autotransformer being loaded for shipment from Lithuania to Ukraine in 2023.

The transfer of the Lubmin plant is part of a wider EU-led initiative to transfer components of energy facilities, and in some cases entire decommissioned plants, to Ukraine.

In September, Lithuania pledged to donate hundreds of tons of hardware from the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant, which was decommissioned in 2009. In December 2025, the EU completed the dismantling and relocation of a complete gas-fired thermal power plant from Lithuania to Ukraine.

The Vilnius Combined Heat and Power Plant was delivered through 149 separate shipments with a total weight of 2,399 tons. It was not reconstituted, but used for parts at Ukrainian energy facilities.

An EU spokesperson told RFE/RL that more than 4 billion euros ($4.42 billion) of energy security aid has been supplied to Ukraine since Russia's 2022 invasion, which "could generate power capable of supporting up to approximately 9.6 million people."

“We continue to stand firmly with Ukraine, and we are helping Ukrainians get through this winter,” the spokesperson added, declining to comment on how much of the donated energy infrastructure has been destroyed by Russian missile and drone strikes.


An electrical transformer being prepared for shipment to Ukraine at a warehouse in the EU’s Civil Protection Mechanism’s logistic hub in Romania in July 2023.

A July statement from Ukraine’s energy ministry thanked the EU countries involved for donations of energy plant components and said at the time that further decommissioned energy facilities in Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Austria, Croatia, and the Netherlands had been inspected for possible transfers.

The next facility in line for transfer to Ukraine will be the Riga CHP-2 power plant in Latvia. A source in Brussels told RFE/RL on November 11 that two decommissioned coal-fired plants in Germany are currently being looked at for likely transfer. The EU insider declined to name the German plants due to sabotage concerns.

By RFE/RL

 

Zelensky rejects neutral status for Ukraine

14.11.2026, 

Photo: Irish Defence Forces/PA Wire/dpa

Ukraine continues to reject neutral status, one of Russia's main demands for ending the war, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Saturday.

"If Russian President Vladimir Putin assumes that Ukraine's neutrality will be enshrined, then this will not happen," Zelensky said according to the Interfax-Ukraine news agency. He rejected a constitutional amendment, which would be required for such status.

Since Ukraine is not a NATO member it has no long-range security guarantees, he noted.

Zelensky said US negotiators had offered, as an option, NATO membership for his country in exchange for Ukrainian withdrawal from the parts of the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbass that Kiev still controls.

The Kremlin insists on a complete Ukrainian withdrawal from the Donbass, which includes the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

With Western support, Ukraine has been defending itself against a full-scale Russian invasion since February 2022. Moscow says it started the war to prevent its neighbour from joining NATO, and it demands neutral status for Ukraine.

This past week brought a resumption of US-mediated direct talks between the Russians and Ukrainians, which raised hopes of an early end to the war. 

However, apart from renewed prisoner exchanges, there appears to have been little progress. European representatives are set to take part in the next round of talks.

Russia's plan for Europe seeks all of Donbas, Finland out of NATO, Bild reports

Russia's plan for Europe seeks all of Donbas, Finland out of Nato, Bild reports
One of several proposals in unofficial circulation would trade a Russian nuclear pull-back from Belarus for a Nato rollback on the alliance's north-eastern flank and a federal Moldova. / bne IntelliNewsFacebook
By Ben Aris in Berlin November 13, 2026

Russia wants Finland out of NATO and the rest of Donbas handed over as part of a "new European security order", Bild reported on November 13, in an account carried by Interfax-Ukraine, citing its own sources.

Russian representatives presented the conditions to European officials during the talks in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11, according to the German daily. Moscow would keep the Ukrainian territory it occupies and take the parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions still under Kyiv's control, while Nato would be barred from setting up military bases in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

The list reaches far beyond Ukraine. It would reverse the 2023 enlargement that brought Finland into Nato, and give Moscow a say over the security of three EU members and an EU candidate. It surfaces as European capitals push for a seat at the table, with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urging them to name a single envoy by the end of November.

Ukraine would adopt non-aligned status and drop its bid to join Nato, although its accession to the EU would not be challenged, Bild reported. Russia also wants the ports of Odesa and Mykolaiv demilitarised and agreements guaranteeing freedom of navigation in the Black Sea and the Baltic. Moldova would become a federal republic, with Transnistria and Gagauzia given the right to hold independence referendums if the country joins the EU.

In return, Russia would withdraw its nuclear weapons from Belarus, refrain from deploying intermediate-range missiles there and pull its troops out of Transnistria.

The paper stressed that this is only one of several proposals being discussed in unofficial negotiating circles, where several groups of intermediaries, including some linked to the military, are working in parallel and competing with one another. It is not clear whether President Vladimir Putin has endorsed this particular plan.

The account sits awkwardly with Moscow's own. Vladimir Medinsky, who led Russia's delegation in Abu Dhabi, has said the Russian side held no talks with European representatives there, while calling for a sweeping overhaul of Europe's security arrangements on the grounds that they ignore Russia's interests. He has also said Russia could regard as its own any territory its troops have set foot on.

The Abu Dhabi round brought together Ukraine, the US, Europe and Russia and produced agreement on a large prisoner exchange, possibly 1,000 for 1,000 or more. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner then met Putin in Moscow and Zelenskiy in Dublin, and Kushner said the final terms of the swap had been agreed. Washington has been exploring changes to the Donbas line as part of a settlement, and Zelenskiy said the next round could be held in the United Arab Emirates or Switzerland.

Russia’s Demands Are A Big Barrier To A Ukraine Peace Deal: What Are They? – Analysis


November 14, 2026

RFE RL

By Steve Gutterman


Key Takeaways:

After U.S.-mediated talks, Russian officials reiterated hardline demands for full control of the Donbas and the other regions Moscow claims, rejecting partial withdrawals or “gray zones” and insisting the border is the line of demarcation as Russia defines it.

Moscow has also signaled it will not cede territory in Ukraine’s Kharkiv, Sumy or Dnipropetrovsk regions and continues to demand a broader European security architecture resembling a “new Yalta,” including limits on NATO expansion and force posture.

Putin stated that any post-deal deployment of Western troops in Ukraine would be treated as a legitimate target, underscoring the gap between Russian positions and Ukrainian or Western requirements for security guarantees.


After three days of talks with Ukrainian and Russian negotiators and the presidents of both countries, US special envoy Jared Kushner said the diplomacy produced “meaningful progress” toward an elusive agreement to end Moscow’s war against Ukraine.

But there was no public sign that Russia is ready to make concessions that could bring a deal closer. In fact, both President Vladimir Putin and his chief negotiator have sent at times extremely uncompromising signals on key issues, including territorial demands in Ukraine and desired changes in the longstanding European security architecture.


Following two days of trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and separate US meetings with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on November 12, here is a look at Russia’s stated positions on matters that could be crucial to concluding a peace pact.
The Donbas And A Lot More

For many months, Putin and other officials have emphasized that full Russian control over the Donbas, which encompasses the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine, is a prerequisite for any peace agreement.

Russia fomented war in the Donbas in 2014 after seizing the Crimean Peninsula, and it controlled portions of Donetsk and Luhansk long before Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

It now occupies virtually all of Luhansk and about 80 percent of Donetsk. But its forces have been unable to capture the rest of that region, including a “fortress belt” that includes the cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, in years of deadly fighting.


Putin has repeatedly said Russia will take the rest of the region by force if it cannot gain it through diplomacy. Zelenskyy says Kyiv will not, formally or de facto, relinquish land its soldiers have fought hard to defend.

The Kremlin’s appetite does not stop at Crimea and the Donbas, however. In September 2022, Moscow baselessly claimed that the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson regions were all part of Russia.

Russia controls a majority of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions, but it does not hold their eponymous capital cities. Its forces seized Kherson early in the full-scale war but were pushed out, back across the Dnieper River, in November 2022.
Borderlands

At times, Russia has sent mixed signals over whether it is willing to settle for partial control over Kherson and Zaporizhzhya or even potentially retreat from them as part of a peace deal.

There was no such ambiguity this week.

Meeting in the Kremlin on November 12 with Kushner and the other US envoy, Steve Witkoff, Putin claimed Kyiv had been “raising questions about gray zones” and added: “For us, there is only one line of demarcation: the line of the state border.”

The actual state border, since the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, is clear and puts all five regions that Russia claims inside Ukraine, no question.


But Putin wasn’t talking about the actual border. He meant the border as Russia has seen it since 2022, and he meant Moscow wants a peace that would make those regions Russian in their entirety — including the parts now held by Kyiv.

On Russian state TV, Moscow’s chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky made belligerent remarks on the same issue, saying that “wherever the Russian flag has been raised, it must not be lowered” and echoing a past comment by Putin that “wherever the foot of [a] Russian soldier has stepped, that is ours.”

More specifically, he suggested that in addition to the regions Russia formally claims as its own, Moscow doesn’t plan to relinquish its hold on territory along the state border in Ukraine’s Kharkiv and Sumy regions, north of the Donbas. Along with Russian-occupied land in the Dnipropetrovsk region, these swaths of territory have been seen by observers as land Russia might cede as part of a compromise.

But Medinsky noted that Putin had ordered Russian forces to create a “security zone” along the border inside Ukraine, adding: “This zone is now quite substantial. It is expanding, and it will continue to expand. I don’t see any possibility of exchanging these territories.”

Rhetoric is rhetoric, and after the trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11, a US negotiator speaking on condition of anonymity reported detecting “a little bit of flexibility” from both sides.

But whatever Moscow’s intentions, the remarks set an uncompromising tone.

Putin’s statement was “a clear reiteration of the hardline position on territory that has emerged over the last year” and “doesn’t leave a lot of negotiating space — on this issue at least,” Samuel Charap, senior political scientist at the Rand Corporation, wrote on X.
A ‘New, Modern Yalta’

Russian officials have been a little less specific about what, exactly, they want from talks on a subject that is now central to the US-led negotiation process: the potential creation of a new European security architecture.

On November 5, Trump spoke of prospects for a “big, beautiful agreement” that is “going to involve more than Ukraine.” Kushner followed up by writing of what he said was “the need for a broader European security architecture that can help establish conditions for lasting peace.”

While it has emerged only now as a focus of the talks, the idea is far from new for Russia. It goes back at least as far as Putin’s ascent to power over a quarter-century ago, with Moscow seeking a reversal of its Cold War geopolitical losses and a restoration of its clout on the European continent.

Without going into detail, Medinsky sent a menacing message to Kyiv and Europe on the matter by telling Russian TV that Moscow’s goal is to create a “new, modern Yalta and Potsdam” — a reference to meetings in 1945 in which the United States, the USSR, and Britain decided the fate of parts of postwar Europe.


It comes amid Russian hopes for a summit between Putin, Trump, and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the November 18-19 APEC summit in China, which Zelenskyy warned could be a “redistribution of spheres of influence.”

Medinsky said a comprehensive new security system could “preserve peace for decades, perhaps centuries.” But the initiative has raised fears in Europe and Ukraine that larger powers could seek to decide their fate for them — and that Russia, rather than being punished for its aggression, could be rewarded with broader influence.
No Troops Allowed

A clue to Russia’s specific hopes can be found in the draft treaties it sent to Washington and NATO in December 2021, cast by Moscow as proposals but seen as ultimatums delivered as Russia amassed troops on Ukraine’s borders. The full-scale invasion followed two months later.

Russia’s demands were dramatic, amounting to a reversal of some of the Cold War’s outcomes. Agreement would have meant forswearing any further NATO enlargement, barring members from conducting military activity in Ukraine or other regional countries, and pulling military deployments back behind the borders of nations that were part of the alliance in 1997 — before any former Soviet satellites joined.

Even at the time, before the death and destruction Moscow has caused with the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it was astounding to many in the West that Russia would make such demands. But Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov said on November 12 that Putin, at his meeting with Kushner and Witkoff, described them as the foundations of Russia’s vision of an effective security architecture.

“The key provisions [are] the non-expansion of the NATO bloc; non-deployment of weapons systems that pose a threat to us near Russia’s borders; and a return of the alliance’s force posture to the configuration that existed” when a Russia-NATO agreement was signed in 1997, Ushakov said.

And on November 13, The New York Times reported that Russian officials circulated a paper this week that echoed the stance Moscow set out in the December 2021 documents — “sometimes word for word” — including the call for a NATO troop pullback.

The Times said it obtained a copy of the paper from a person involved in the talks, and that another person with knowledge of the negotiations confirmed its authenticity.

In some cases, it’s unclear how close Russia’s current positions in the talks hew to proposals it has made at previous talks during the war such as a call for the size of Ukraine’s military to be strictly limited.

At a conference in Moscow on November 11, a Russian Foreign Ministry official described several types of agreements that could be part of a new European security system, Reuters reported, including a collective defense alliance and bilateral nonaggression or mutual assistance pacts between Moscow and individual NATO members.


Analysts say the Kremlin prefers dealing with European nations on a bilateral basis than with NATO or the EU in part because it enables Moscow to sow divisions.

Meanwhile, Russia has continued to demand Ukraine be barred from ever joining NATO. It has bristled at the idea of security guarantees for Kyiv that would amount to anything close to the alliance treaty’s Article 5, which states an armed attack against one member is considered an attack against all.

And at his meeting with Kushner and Witkoff, Putin suggested any plans for Western troops to be deployed in Ukraine after a peace deal would be unacceptable to Russia, saying: “We have already talked about this: 
For us, they are a legitimate target, meaning the war [would] resume immediately.”


Steve Gutterman is Russia/Ukraine/Belarus editor in RFE/RL’s Central Newsroom in Prague and the author of The Week In Russia newsletter. He lived and worked in Russia and elsewhere in the region for nearly 20 years between 1989 and 2014, including postings in Moscow with the Associated Press and Reuters and over a year based in Kyiv. He has also reported from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and other parts of Asia, as well as Europe and the United States.
Analysis

COP31: Betting on electricity to break the climate deadlock

From November 9 to 20, the international community is gathering in Antalya, Turkey, for the UN COP31 conference. At a time when the energy crisis linked to the war in the Middle East has forced countries to confront their dependence on fossil fuels, this new round of climate negotiations is starting off with a new goal: to push for a massive shift toward electricity.


Issued on: 09/11/2026 - FRANCE24

Video by: Eliza HERBERT

Cover image: This aerial photograph shows wind turbines in Catalca, near Istanbul on November 2, 2026. © Yasin Akgul, AFP
01:32



After biodiversity comes climate. Starting Monday, countries from around the world will gather in Antalya, Turkey, for the 31st Conference of the Parties on climate (COP31).

This year, the major climate negotiations open on a particularly bleak backdrop, amid a tense geopolitical context and following a summer marked by a series of disasters. The goal set in 2015 by the Paris Climate Agreement to limit global warming to +1.5°C now seems impossible to reach. The world is heading towards a 2.8°C rise in temperature by 2100 if nothing changes, and a 2.6°C rise if the international community continues its current efforts, the UN warned once again in its latest annual report published on October 21.

Read moreTurkey to push for 'electrification' drive at COP31 as climate threats mount


A turning point for energy sovereignty

But, paradoxically, this global context is precisely what gives climate advocates a reason for hope.

“This COP is the first since the situation in the Strait of Hormuz plunged the world into an unprecedented energy crisis,” said Gaïa Febvre, head of international policy at the French climate advocacy group Réseau action climat (RAC). “Everywhere, leaders and citizens alike have seen hydrocarbon prices skyrocket, and there has been a growing awareness of our dependence on fossil fuels.”

COP31 Summit in Turkey: 'How do we achieve our climate goals?'
Cover image: Turkey, the host of COP31, is set to launch a global initiative aiming to electrify a third of the world economy. © AFP
05:11



At recent COPs, states failed to target the main culprits of global warming: fossil fuels – gas, coal and oil. While in 2023, during COP28 in Dubai, participants had painstakingly managed to agree on the need to start a “transition away from fossil fuels”, debates on implemention hit a brick wall and COP30 concluded without any mention of the issue in the final text.

“This new summit appears as a perfect opportunity to emphasise the necessity to step away from fossil fuels and accelerate the green transition with the development of renewable energies,” Febvre said. “There is an alignment between issues of energy sovereignty and climate ambitions.”

Seeking to capitalise on this “momentum”, Australia and Turkey – which are co-chairing COP31 – have decided to bring an alternative to the forefront: electricity. During preparatory discussions in Bonn, Germany, back in June, they proposed setting a target for 35 percent of final energy consumption to come from electricity by 2035. The project is titled “35-35”.

Watch moreCountries turn to coal to avoid shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz

“This is the most important pillar in reducing emissions – you need to increase electrification in cities, in manufacturing, in [all aspects of life], and will serve us in the bigger picture, the bigger targets [of the Paris agreement],” said Murat Kurum, Turkey’s Minister of the Environment.

“No one can sanction the sun, no one can blockade the wind,” Australia’s Minister for climate change and energy Chris Bowen said. “Solar energy has to travel 150 million kilometres to Earth, but it does not have to travel 150 kilometres of the Strait of Hormuz,” he added in a direct reference to the blockade of the main transit route for hydrocarbons from the Middle East to the rest of the world.

Europe: How energy crises are accelerating the shift to renewables
Cover image: En thumbnail europe © France 24
01:49



Electrification is expected to be on the COP30 agenda starting Tuesday, a day dedicated to energy. The conference presidency is expected to call on countries to voluntarily commit to the 35-35 target. Several countries – including EU members – have already indicated that they would answer favourably.

This should be a first symbolic step before serious discussions start.

“Turkey is also pushing for this issue to be debated as part of the official negotiations and thus be included in the final COP agreement,” Febvre said.

Countries will then need to find a common objective, as the final text needs a consensus in order to be adopted.


Popularising the use of electricity

“In recent years, electricity has already been accounting for an increasingly large share of the global energy mix,” said Gareth Redmond-King, head of international programme at the UK-based non-profit Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit.

By the end of 2024, it accounted for 23 percent of final energy consumption, according to data from the International Energy Agency.

“At the national level, some countries are ahead of the curve,” Redmond-King said. “Japan, for example, has already reached 35 percent of its energy from electricity. China is approaching 30 percent. The EU and the US are in line with the global average at respectively 23 and 22 percent.”



In France – which has just announced a substantial electrification plan – electricity accounts for about 27 percent of final energy consumption.

Given these figures, is the goal of 35 percent by 2035 achievable? And can it really make a difference for the climate?

According to an analysis from the Climate Action Tracker, if current policies remain unchanged, electricity’s share of energy consumption would reach 28 percent by 2035, with the transportation sector lagging far behind.

“It would require political will and investment from governments, but this goal seems achievable,” said Redmond-King. “Driven by China, in particular, electrification technologies have really taken off in recent years. We’ve seen this, for example, with the widespread adoption of electric cars and heat pumps … And more and more industries are making the shift, attracted by energy that is becoming increasingly cheaper compared to fossil fuels.”

“But for this energy transition to be fair, the most developed countries will have to agree to support countries in the Global South. And the private sector will also have to agree to get involved,” said Febvre.
‘Clean’ and ‘green’: a battle of words

As for the impact on the fight against climate change, it will depend on the actual ambition of states, insisted the two experts, who will be keeping a close eye on the negotiations in Antalya.

To begin with, “35 percent of electrification is interesting, but it must be a floor, not a ceiling,”said Febvre.

Above all, the source of that electricity will need to be looked at: renewable energy, nuclear power or fossil fuels? Febvre expects a “battle of words” behind the scenes at the COP.

“When drafting the agreement, we’ll have to see if countries can reach a consensus among advocates of ‘clean’ energy – that is, renewables and nuclear power – those pushing for ‘green’ energy using only renewables, and those who also want to maintain fossil fuels,” she said.

In other words, “electrification must go hand in hand with decarbonisation,” Redmond-King summarised.

However, India – as well as much of the African continent and oil-producing countries – would surely reject any mention of “clean” or “green” electricity. On the other hand, the EU is likely to push for electricity to come primarily from decarbonised energy sources, including nuclear power.

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For now, the text proposed by the Turkish presidency calls for increasing “electricity’s share of total final energy consumption... in line with pathways consistent with keeping 1.5°C alive and complementary to efforts to expand renewable energy and improve energy efficiency.”

Therefore, nothing explicitly states that the electricity must come from sources that do not emit greenhouse gases. The text can be understood as a call to expand electrification as a whole, while also making efforts to develop renewable energy.

This is exactly Turkey’s model. According to the global energy think-tank Ember, 43 percent of Turkey’s electricity came from clean sources in 2025, including 22 percent from wind and solar power and 16 percent from hydropower, a record figure. But in parallel, the country has continued to build new coal-fired power plants and has not set a formal target for phasing out fossil fuels. The two co-presidents of COP31 are, in fact, historically linked by a coal agreement.
Energy sobriety

Beyond electricity sources, the challenge will also revolve around the amount of energy produced, Febvre said. In 2025, for the first time, renewable energy sources generated more electricity than coal. But in parallel, fossil fuels also increased.

This is due to energy demand continuously rising, whether it’s to power air conditioners or heaters during extreme weather events, or the data centres essential to the development of artificial intelligence.

“Amid all this, we also have to adopt a real energy conservation plan,” said Febvre. “It’s no longer a matter of adding this energy to our current resources, but of permanently replacing fossil fuels.”

The debate is therefore shaping up to be heated. Even if COP31 were to produce an ambitious commitment to electrification, the hardest part would still lie ahead.

“We’ll have to take action to make the plan a reality,” Febvre said. “But this will have to be done fairly, taking into account local realities and the challenges faced by different countries.”

This article has been adapted from the original in French.