BAN DEEP SEA MINING

FIU scientists uncover hidden extinction risks in the deep sea

Florida International University

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Researchers from Florida International University analyzed genetic information from 486 marine specimens to understand how populations of certain lanternfish and deep-sea shrimp have changed over time and how vulnerable they may be to future environmental pressures. 

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Credit: Florida International University

New genetic evidence suggests marine life in the deep Gulf may be more vulnerable than previously believed.

A biodiversity crisis is unfolding across the planet, but the deep sea was thought immune and even a refuge for marine life. New research led by Florida International University scientists suggests that assumption may be alarmingly wrong.

By examining more than a decade of genetic data, the research team uncovered troubling signs of extinction risk among five species living hundreds of meters beneath the surface of the Gulf, raising the possibility that a biodiversity crisis is also unfolding in one of the planet's largest and least understood habitats. Led by FIU marine scientist Pedro A. Peres from the Bracken-Grissom Lab, the study examined three species of lanternfish and two species of deep-sea shrimp collected between 2011 and 2023.

Researchers analyzed genetic information from 486 specimens to understand how populations have changed over time and how vulnerable they may be to future environmental pressures. This is one of only a few studies to examine how the DNA of deep sea animals has changed over time, according to Peres.

All five species exhibited genetic warning signs associated with elevated extinction risk, Peres said. One lanternfish species, Diaphus dumerilii, lost approximately 8% of its genetic diversity over 12 years — a decline comparable to or greater than losses documented in some threatened and endangered animals over much longer periods. The researchers also found that each species had a relatively small effective population size. This doesn't mean there are necessarily few animals. It means relatively few individuals are contributing genetically to future generations.

This challenges the idea that deep-sea species are naturally more resilient because they occupy such vast environments,” Peres said. “It shows how much we can miss when we look only at population abundance without considering their genetic diversity and long-term viability.”

Genetic diversity is essential to a species' survival, according to Heather Bracken-Grissom, assistant director of the Institute of Environment’s Coastlines and Oceans Division. A co-author of this study, she has spearheaded the research investigating the genetic diversity and resilience of deep-sea species.

“Genetic diversity provides the variation populations need to adapt to changing conditions, resist disease and recover from environmental disturbances,” she said. “When that diversity disappears, a species can also lose the ability to withstand future threats.”

The researchers used climate models to predict how suitable the Gulf's deep-sea habitats may become by 2050 and 2100. Four of the five species could experience significant shrinking of suitable habitat in the Gulf — as much as 70%. The findings are particularly concerning, Peres said, because deep-sea species have traditionally been assumed to maintain large, resilient populations due to their extensive habitats and broad distributions.

The research also raises questions about the lasting effects of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Previous studies documented substantial declines in deep-sea animal populations following the disaster.

Although the researchers do not directly attribute the genetic changes to the spill, the findings suggest environmental disturbances may have consequences that persist long after the immediate damage.

“Our results suggest some deep-sea populations may have already been genetically vulnerable before the Deepwater Horizon oil spill,” Peres said. “This has important implications for understanding the consequences of environmental disturbances. Events such as oil spills may affect populations that already have limited genetic resilience.”

The study also includes co-authors Keith Sellers from FIU and Tracey T. Sutton from Nova Southeastern University. The findings demonstrate how genetic monitoring can reveal conservation threats that traditional population surveys might miss.

“This study serves as a wake-up call for the scientific community,” Peres said, “highlighting the urgent need to integrate genetic monitoring into biodiversity assessments and emphasizing the importance of long-term monitoring to better understand and detect changes in marine populations over time.”

---

Journal

Nature Communications

DOI

10.1038/s41467-026-79098-0

Method of Research

Data/statistical analysis

Subject of Research

Animals

Article Title

Extinction risks in deep-sea populations revealed by genomic data and ecological niche modeling

Article Publication Date

12-Nov-2026

How Global Energy Markets Survived Eight Months of Iran War Disruptions

By Robert Rapier - Nov 13, 2026

India found alternative LPG supplies while global fertilizer markets adjusted to wartime disruptions, although high costs and some shortages persisted.

Europe avoided widespread jet fuel shortages but faced higher energy prices and entered winter with unusually low natural gas inventories.

Global oil reserves have fallen sharply as emergency stock releases, longer shipping routes, and reduced consumption helped offset supply disruptions.



Six months ago, I wrote that Americans were experiencing the Iran war primarily through higher prices, while much of the rest of the world was confronting something more serious: actual shortages of fuel and other critical products.

In “The U.S. Feels Higher Prices While The World Is Facing Fuel Shortages,” I highlighted several pressure points created by the disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. India was struggling to secure liquefied petroleum gas, or LPG, fertilizer markets were tightening, Europe faced potential shortages of jet fuel and other refined products, and Asian economies were scrambling to replace energy supplies normally sourced from the Persian Gulf.

At the time, the biggest unknown was how long the disruption would last and how successfully global supply chains could adapt. Six months later, the picture is much clearer. Some of the worst fears did not materialize, but that was largely because countries drew down inventories, rerouted supplies over much longer distances, released emergency stocks, reduced consumption, and paid more to keep products moving. The global energy system proved remarkably adaptable, but much of that adaptation came at a substantial cost.

India Found New LPG Supplies

India provided one of the clearest early examples of a physical shortage. The country traditionally sourced about 90% of its imported LPG from the Middle East, leaving it highly exposed when traffic through Hormuz collapsed. The government reduced LPG allocations to industry to protect household cooking-gas supplies, encouraged some users to switch fuels, and took steps to discourage hoarding as Middle Eastern LPG exports plunged.


India and other Asian buyers eventually found replacement supplies, particularly from the United States. U.S. LPG cargoes were redirected toward Asia, but replacing nearby Gulf production with supplies from the U.S. Gulf Coast meant longer voyages and higher transportation costs. By fall, the immediate shortage had eased as imports diversified and Middle Eastern supplies began to recover.

The episode demonstrated both the strength and the weakness of global energy trade. India did not simply run out of cooking gas, because alternative suppliers responded to higher prices. But securing those alternatives required longer supply chains, higher costs, government intervention, and substantial losses by state fuel retailers that continued selling subsidized LPG below market prices. The shortage eased, but the economic cost did not disappear.

Fertilizer Markets Adapted, but Not Completely

Fertilizer was another major concern because the Persian Gulf plays an outsized role in global agriculture. Gulf producers account for a large share of global urea and ammonia exports, while the region is also important to sulfur markets. Sulfur is a critical input for phosphate fertilizer production, so disruptions can spread well beyond the countries that actually produce it.

Those concerns materialized quickly. Urea prices surged after Hormuz traffic was disrupted, and millions of metric tons of Gulf fertilizer exports were temporarily removed from the market. That raised fears that fertilizer shortages could eventually reduce crop yields and push food prices higher.

The outcome has been less severe than initially feared. China increased urea exports, demand moderated after the Northern Hemisphere application season, and nitrogen fertilizer prices retreated from their wartime peaks. Phosphate markets have remained tighter because sulfur shortages continue to constrain production. Instead of one prolonged worldwide fertilizer shortage, the shock migrated through the supply chain as some bottlenecks eased and others persisted.

That distinction is important. Commodity shortages rarely remain static. High prices encourage conservation, attract new suppliers, and change trade flows, but those adjustments take time and usually impose costs somewhere else in the system.

Europe Avoided Shortages, but Not Higher Costs

Europe may provide the best example of a feared shortage that largely failed to materialize. In April, the loss of Middle Eastern jet fuel raised concerns that European airlines could face physical shortages during the busy summer travel season. Europe had become increasingly dependent on imported jet fuel as domestic refining capacity declined, leaving it vulnerable to the disruption of Gulf supplies.

Instead, European refiners increased jet fuel production while imports from the United States and West Africa helped replace missing Middle Eastern barrels. Inventories provided an additional cushion, and the summer passed without the severe shortage that some had feared.

But that does not mean Europe escaped the consequences. Jet fuel became considerably more expensive, forcing airlines to absorb higher costs and reconsider routes that no longer made economic sense. The market solved much of the physical shortage through higher prices, alternative supply routes, increased refinery output, and reduced demand.

Natural gas presents a similar story. Europe entered this conflict in a stronger position than it occupied during the 2022 Russian gas crisis because LNG import capacity had expanded and supplies had become more diversified. Nevertheless, higher global gas prices made it more expensive to refill storage. Germany entered November with unusually low storage levels for the beginning of winter, leaving Europe with less margin if the coming winter is particularly cold.

The World Used Up Part of Its Safety Margin

The most important development since April may not be any individual shortage, but what happened to the inventories and spare capacity that normally cushion supply disruptions. Global oil inventories have fallen substantially since the war began despite major releases from emergency reserves. Tankers are traveling farther, transportation costs have increased, and diesel inventories remain tight in several regions.

Those buffers are one reason the global system continued functioning despite the loss of a major energy chokepoint. Inventories existed precisely for this sort of emergency, and higher prices encouraged refiners, traders, producers, and consumers to adjust. Yet every barrel drawn from storage and every unit of spare capacity brought into service leaves less protection against the next disruption.

That is especially important because the Iran conflict did not occur in isolation. Refinery outages, hurricanes, a cold winter, another geopolitical crisis, or simply stronger-than-expected demand would now hit a system operating with less slack than it had earlier this year. Avoiding the worst-case scenarios in 2026 does not mean the underlying vulnerabilities have disappeared.

The Big Picture

When I wrote in April that much of the world was confronting shortages while Americans were primarily experiencing higher prices, the concern was that prolonged disruption through Hormuz could spread into transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, and household energy markets.

Six months later, the results are mixed but revealing. India experienced a genuine LPG shortage and found alternative supplies. Fertilizer prices surged, but nitrogen markets adapted while some phosphate constraints remain. Europe avoided a major jet fuel shortage, although airlines and passengers are paying higher fuel costs, and the continent enters winter with less comfortable natural gas inventories.

The global energy system bent much further than many people expected, but it did not break. That is encouraging, and it demonstrates just how effective international trade can be when markets are allowed to redirect supplies toward the places willing to pay for them.

The less comforting conclusion is that much of the flexibility that prevented a worse crisis came from inventories, spare capacity, emergency reserves, longer shipping routes, and demand destruction. Those measures bought the world time, but they also reduced the cushion available for the next shock.

The shortages we worried about in April did not unfold exactly as feared. Markets found substitutes and consumers adjusted, which is what commodity markets eventually do. But the substitutes came at a price, and six months later the global energy system has considerably less room for error.

By Robert Rapier

 

Mining in Canada pays well but wage growth has sunk to near the bottom

Frik Els | November 12, 2026 

Image by Amanda Stutt.

Canada’s miners are the best-paid workers in the country by a wide margin. They are also, this fall, among the worst-rewarded for staying loyal.

New payroll data from ADP Canada, drawn from the paycheques of roughly 1.6 million private-sector workers, shows gross pay for workers who stayed in their jobs in natural resources and mining rose 4.1% year-over-year in October.

Pay increases were unchanged from September and tied for eighth of the ten sectors ADP tracks. It also came in below the national figure of 4.5% for job-stayers. Only “other services” (3.3%), which includes everyone from barbers to pastors, did worse. The sector sharing eighth place with mining and the oil patch is information, the closest thing in the data to tech (but it also includes journalists, for better or worse). Tech may be feeling the first effects of growing AI use especially for junior positions, but finance, which also looks ripe for superintelligence disruption, fared much better, at 5.0%.

Statistics Canada’s payroll survey, which lags the ADP data by two months, puts average weekly earnings in mining, quarrying and oil and gas at C$2,584 in August, against C$1,355 across all industries and C$531 in accommodation and food services. A 5.4% raise on C$531 is about C$29 a week and 4.1% on C$2,584 is about C$106, so any concierge thinking of swapping a Whistler lobby for a Uranium City core shack may want to consider whether C$77 is worth it.

StatCan also shows a significant slowdown in average weekly earnings for those who arrive at work in a cage and carry a self-rescuer – up only 0.8% year-over-year. The all-industry figure rose 3.7%.

Naturally volatile

ADP’s natural resources (mainly oil and gas and a few farmworkers and loggers) and mining category has been the most volatile pay sector in the country over the past three years. It is roughly four times as volatile as manufacturing on the standard deviation of its monthly readings. In July 2023, powder monkeys and rig pigs were living high on the hog, enjoying gross pay growth of 11.5%.

The sector held the top spot for eight straight months. By March 2026 the same series had sunk to 2.9%, the lowest of any sector, where it stayed for five months. Manufacturing’s entire four-year range is no more than 2.4 percentage points while mining’s swings and roundabouts come to 8.6 points. A quick glance at NYMEX or COMEX will explain why.

The onus is on bonus

Base pay – the hourly rate or salary, stripped of overtime, bonuses and commissions – for mining job-stayers is growing at 3.0%. So is base pay in every other sector: all ten are at 3.0% or 3.1%. ADP’s technical notes explain that employers hand out raises in round numbers, and after the inflation tantrum of 2022–2023, the round number Canadian employers have settled on is three.

That matches Canada’s most recent inflation rate of 3.1%, but if you’re planning to escape winter, three won’t do: in September gasoline was 27.8% and air fares 19.4% more expensive than a year earlier. It’s cheaper to party at camp (in between operating heavy machinery, of course): StatCan says alcohol, tobacco and cannabis are only 1.6% dearer.

It’s all boom and bust in mining and gross pay follows the up and down (super)cycles. In October 2023 the sector’s gross pay growth (11.0%) outran its base pay growth (4.5%) by 6.5 points, a bonus-and-overtime gap no other sector came close to. In October 2026 the wedge is 1.1 points, and it has turned negative three times in two years, most recently in March.

FIFO FOMO

Compound the October readings from 2023 through 2026 and miners have seen gross pay grow about 27% since October 2022, the base of ADP’s first Canadian reading. That’s more than any other sector, but only just ahead of reflective-strip-free finance and leisure people, and well clear of the roughly 22% for job-stayers nationally. That one 11% year did a lot of lifting: the best time to be a miner on a fixed payroll was three years ago, the second-best was last summer and the worst was this spring. The minerals may now all be critical, more money for muckers not so much.

Loyalty is for dogs

ADP doesn’t break out job-hopping by sector, but gut feel tells you swapping one cold and remote mine for another is probably less of a temptation than crossing Bay Street to join Frobisher, Quibble & Chase because Whitcomb, Clench & Doolittle won’t make you partner.

Nationally, job-changers saw gross pay rise 10.4% in October against 4.5% for stayers, a 5.9-point premium for switching, the widest since February 2024 and more than three points wider than a year ago, when switchers’ raises bottomed at 7.1%. Base pay tells the same story: 6.0% for changers, 3.0% for stayers.

If the market is paying job-changers 10%, the arithmetic of staying put looks like a grind, least of all for mid-career workers. Among job-stayers across the economy, those aged 35 to 54 saw gross pay rise 4.4% in October, in line with the national average. Those over 55 got 2.9%. Only stayers under 25, at 10.5%, kept pace with switchers, and that is the usual early-career ramp.

For young jobseekers who don’t know what PPE is and won’t mind having it drummed into them for the rest of their working lives, there is good news. Mining is hiring. StatCan’s payroll count for mining, quarrying and oil and gas is up 3.9% year-over-year to 226,600, the fastest growth of any of the 20 sectors it tracks, in an economy where overall payroll employment grew only 0.3%.

Indonesian tycoon said to weigh bid for Eramet’s nickel mine

Bloomberg News | November 11, 2026 | 

Weda Bay Nickel site in Indonesia. (Image: Eramet.)

Indonesian tycoon Andi Syamsuddin Arsyad is considering buying Eramet SA’s stake in one of the world’s largest nickel mines, people familiar with the matter said, in what would be the second major deal by the coal magnate this year.

The billionaire known as Haji Isam may seek to buy part or all of Eramet’s 38.7% stake in PT Weda Bay Nickel, the people said, asking not to be identified because the deliberations are private.

Eramet may seek a valuation of as much as $4 billion for the entire mine, a person familiar with the matter said. Other sources gave a more conservative valuation.

Eramet shares climbed as much as 9.8% in Paris Wednesday, the biggest intraday gain since June 12. The stock has lost 33% this year, giving the French company a market value of €1.1 billion ($1.2 billion).

Other suitors for the holding include Indonesian sovereign wealth fund Danantara, people familiar with the matter have previously said.

Considerations are ongoing and no final decisions have been made, the people said. A representative for Paris-based Eramet declined to comment. Haji Isam didn’t immediately respond to a request seeking comment via his conglomerate PT Jhonlin Group.

Nickel has been performing weaker than most other base metals this year, declining around 3% year to date, as persistent oversupply outweighs concerns over potential production curbs in Indonesia.

A deal for WBN would follow another recent deal by Haji Isam, who in September agreed to acquire a stake in PT Bayan Resources, one of the country’s top coal miners. The billionaire, whose businesses include coal, palm oil, nickel and cryptocurrency, was among the biggest backers of Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s 2024 election campaign and now oversees major government projects.

Eramet has had a presence in Indonesia for about two decades. The government slashed WBN’s production quota earlier this year, forcing it to halt operations. The quota was later lifted in a mid-year revision. Prior to the cuts, WBN was the world’s largest nickel mine, producing 42 million tons of ore. Its other shareholders are Chinese stainless steel conglomerate Tsingshan Holding Group Co. and Indonesian state miner PT Antam Persero.

Eramet in February unveiled plans to raise funds through a capital increase and asset sales to curb its debt, which soared last year amid challenges at some of its overseas operations. Last month, France’s government announced it would become the Eramet’s top shareholder. 

Eramet earlier this week said that it has received expressions of interest from several investors for a significant portion of the group’s stake in WBN, and for a minority stake in its Centenario lithium plant in Argentina. Processes are underway, the company said, adding it agreed to sell undeveloped mining concessions in the Arizaro salar in Argentina for $71 million.

 

Report: Coast Guard Investigates Possible "Magic Pipe" Case on MSC Poesia

"magic pipe" is waste discharge

MSC Cruises handout

By The Maritime Executive 2026-11-13 

The U.S. Coast Guard has launched a criminal investigation into a possible case of "magic pipe" waste discharge aboard the cruise ship MSC Poesia, which was detained for a "regulatory matter" recently at PortMiami, a U.S. official has confirmed to CBS. 

No charges have yet been filed, nor any targets named. The Coast Guard has not made an official statement about the nature of the investigation; after the boarding and inspection, it said only that it had "identified deficiencies with systems on board the vessel" that it was addressing with the operator. 

The "magic pipe" method refers to the use of an informal plumbing arrangement to discharge oily waste over the side, a practice internationally banned under MARPOL. An officer's decision to use a magic pipe arrangement saves the vessel operator money by eliminating disposal costs. Shoreside disposal of oily water can be very expensive, but untreated discharge at sea - bypassing the ship's oily water separator - carries no immediate cost to the company. 

Untreated discharges are rarely punished as a criminal offense abroad. Recurring arrests in U.S. ports - where intentional oil dumping at sea is handled as a federal crime - suggest that the practice occurs with some regularity in foreign-flagged trade. 

In the largest such case on record, Carnival Corporation's Princess Cruises pleaded guilty to seven felony charges and paid a fine of $40 million for a pattern of magic pipe discharges and oil record book falsification aboard at least five ships. Carnival had to undergo a court supervision process lasting years after the plea. 

A magic pipe violation is often uncovered when a crewmember tips off the U.S. Coast Guard. A timely tip line call or a note passed to an inspection official can earn the seafarer up to half of any recovered fine - a life-changing opportunity for some crewmembers, potentially reaching millions of dollars for the worst offenses. A tip-off will lead to a Coast Guard inspection of the engine room and piping, plus a detailed examination of the vessel's oil record book and a round of interviews with the crew.

Trump Extends Jones Act Waiver For Another 90 Days

By Julianne Geiger - Nov 13, 2026

President Donald Trump extended the Jones Act waiver for another 90 days on Friday, keeping foreign-flagged tankers eligible to move oil and other commodities between U.S. ports as the war with Iran continues to drive up fuel costs.

The extension, confirmed by a White House official who spoke to Reuters, continues what is already the longest waiver in the shipping law's history. Foreign vessels will still need approval for individual voyages due to a restriction introduced in August after earlier blanket exemptions drew opposition from the domestic maritime industry.

The 1920 Jones Act requires cargo moving between American ports to travel on U.S.-built, U.S.-owned and U.S.-crewed vessels. Suspending that act allows for a much larger pool of ships.

Phillips 66 was among the first to take advantage of the original waiver, shipping roughly 300,000 barrels of Bakken crude from Texas to Monroe Energy's Trainer refinery in Pennsylvania aboard the Malta-flagged HTM Warrior in April.

The administration has since tightened the rules. Roughly 300 waivers were granted under the earlier blanket exemptions in March and May, compared with just 48 since the switch to individual approvals in August, according to government figures cited by Reuters.

The White House hopes the additional shipping flexibility will help contain gasoline, diesel and fertilizer prices, although previous exemptions have delivered little relief at the pump.

U.S. gasoline averaged $3.91 per gallon Thursday, compared with $2.98 before the Iran war began. Diesel stood at $6.10, up from $3.76, according to AAA.

Shipping accounts for only a small portion of retail gasoline prices, and critics estimate that relaxing the Jones Act would save consumers mere pennies per gallon.

More than 50 Republican lawmakers urged Trump in June to restore the restrictions, citing American maritime jobs and national security concerns.

As it stands currently, shippers must prove that suitable American vessels are unavailable before getting approval for using foreign ships. The latest extension keeps that approval process intact.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

White House Extends Jones Act Waiver Into 2027

Through February, energy companies can choose between American and foreign tankers for shipments within the United States (iStock)

By The Maritime Executive 2026-11-13 

On Friday, President Donald Trump decided to extend the long-running waiver of the Jones Act to allow foreign-crewed tankers to keep carrying energy products in U.S. domestic trade, according to Bloomberg. The renewal provides more transport options for U.S. energy traders and petroleum companies - but American domestic shipping interests say that the policy damages the health of the maritime industrial base, while doing little to help consumers with high gas and diesel prices. 

The extension takes effect Monday, a White House official told Bloomberg. It will push the waiver period's validity out through at least mid-February, with the possibility of further extensions.

Measured by historical standards, it is an exceptionally broad use of the presidential waiver authority, both in time and in scope. The White House says that foreign-crewed, foreign-owned ships have moved about 90 million barrels of petroleum between U.S. ports since the start of the waiver period. Opponents of the waiver say that because none of the shipments are linked to operational national security needs, as is required by law, the program exceeds the White House's capabilities.  

The frequency of shipments has fallen since the latest renewal, as the terms have tightened: the Maritime Administration now must pre-review each shipment to assess whether Jones Act-qualified vessels are available before a foreign-flagged ship may carry out the voyage. That procedural step remains in place for this renewal cycle, and no additional restrictions have been added, according to Bloomberg. 

"We urge the administration to continue scrutinizing all waiver requests under the case-by-case process to ensure that any approved waivers meet the statutory standard of military necessity and are not used to displace American vessels and American workers for routine commercial moves," said the American Maritime Partnership in a statement. "As both the Administration and Congress have made clear, a Jones Act waiver does not relieve users of the responsibility to comply with applicable U.S. laws, including tax, immigration and employment standards."

"The offshore industry has seen this happen before. Every exception gets sold as temporary, and every one leaves fewer opportunities for American vessels and mariners,” added Aaron Smith, President and CEO of the Offshore Marine Service Association (OMSA). “What started as a 60-day measure is now heading into its ninth month, and it still hasn't delivered. Every extension tells investors the market for American vessels can disappear on the whim of a bureaucrat, and that investment goes overseas."

Interview

What Trump’s midterms debacle could mean for US support for Ukraine

The Republican Party's crushing defeat in midterm elections has left Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky optimistic about future support for Kyiv and stronger transatlantic relations. But with US President Donald Trump retaining broad foreign policy powers, the Democratic majority in Congress may have limited scope to bring about substantial change.


Issued on: 06/11/2026 - 
FRANCE24
By: Simon FEISTHAUER FOURNET

US President Donald Trump meets with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky during the 81st United Nations General Assembly in New York on September 22, 2026. © Kylie Cooper, Reuters


The Democrats’ sweeping victory in US midterm elections this week is already reshaping the political map, both domestically and abroad. In Kyiv, the mood is cautiously optimistic, shared FRANCE 24’s correspondent Emmanuelle Chaze, who said Ukrainians understand that US foreign policy still runs through the White House. Few of them expect an immediate shift in how the US approaches the war with Russia, especially given US President Donald Trump’s tense relationship with Ukraine as of late.

Ukrainians 'not expecting drastic change in US policy' after midterms

Cover image: US midterms unlikely to change the war in Ukraine © agences
03:29

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told German public broadcaster ZDF on Thursday that Democrats were “speaking very clearly about supporting Ukraine” and “renewing the connection between the US and Europe”. He added he was hopeful to be able to push for more funding and aid with defence. While the Democrats’ control of Congress could indeed lead to financial relief for Ukraine and more sanctions on Russia, their room for manoeuvre remains limited.

Trump said Friday that a “big, beautiful agreement” to end the war is close – one he claims could involve “all of Europe” – and US-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine are due in Abu Dhabi next week. But the European Union (EU) said “a lot of work” was still needed and EU spokeswoman Paula Pinho noted it would “obviously be up to the EU to decide on matters which affect its security”.

FRANCE 24 spoke with James M. Lindsay, a senior fellow in US foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, about what the results could mean for the war in Ukraine and US-Europe relations.


FRANCE 24: Now that the Democrats have gained control of Congress, how much room will they have to push for greater support for Ukraine? And how likely is it that they will make it a priority?

James M. Lindsay: The incoming Democratic Congress will be more supportive of Ukraine than the Trump administration has been. Congressional Democrats, however, are going to find it difficult to translate their policy preferences on Ukraine into actual policy change. The reason for that is because the president of the US – despite seeing his party lose in historic fashion on election day – retains significant authority over US foreign policy.

But I would anticipate that the Democrats will put ending the war with Iran, reaffirming US support for Ukraine, and reining in President Trump's use of tariffs high on their to-do list.

Read moreTrump’s stillborn diesel deal: Why Russian oil tankers are not heading to the US

How much power does Trump hold over foreign policy and how might he leverage it following the midterms defeat?

First and foremost, the president alone decides who the United States negotiates with and what to negotiate over. Congress can have views on these issues. It can criticise the president in the hope it can persuade him to change his mind. But it cannot dictate the terms of the negotiations. So the big unknown that remains after election day – now that we know what Congress will look like in January – is how President Trump will respond.

Donald Trump prides himself as a dealmaker. Perhaps he will view the results as an opportunity to show how he can negotiate with the Democratic Congress. If so, the desire of many Democrats and many Republicans: to take a tougher line with Russia and to do more to help Ukraine, could have great success.

But if you look at President Trump, he is someone who historically when challenged, doubles down rather than backs down. So perhaps he will continue to push ahead with his policy towards Russia and hostility towards Ukraine.

Read moreDemocrats warn Trump camp to ‘lawyer up’ as anger over corruption drives midterms wipeout

What other challenges will the Democrats face trying to set their foreign policy agenda in Congress?

For Democrats, the victory on Tuesday has sent expectations soaring both inside the United States and abroad about how much a Democratic Congress will be able to redirect US foreign policy. They will find it very hard to satisfy these expectations, which could lead to very big disappointment down the road, both at home and overseas.

One challenge congressional Democrats are going to have – on Ukraine, as well as on the Iran War – is that they won the election in November, but they don't take office until the beginning of January.

Congress is going to have a hard time putting its stamp on policy – no matter how many speeches senators and representatives give, affirming their faith in things like the transatlantic relationship. So in essence, if the president decides that he is going to persist with the disruptive foreign policies he has championed during the first two years of his second term, Congress will find it difficult to rein him in.

This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.

 

Ukraine Hits Russian Corvette With Multiple Drones in the Gulf of Finland

A Buyan-M class corvette (file image courtesy Russian MOD)

By The Maritime Executive 2026-11-13 

In addition to the serious damage inflicted on the Ust-Luga oil terminal in a Ukrainian strike on Wednesday night, a Russian Navy corvette suffered disabling hits and multiple casualties, according to the Estonian Defence Forces. It may be the first instance of a Ukrainian attack on a Baltic Fleet warship while under way, and an additional signal that the high-intensity Black Sea conflict is shifting to another NATO theater. 

In a press briefing Friday, Estonian Defence Forces deputy commander Col. Aron Kalmus gave a thorough and candid account of the Ukrainian drone strike. On Wednesday night, a large-scale, multiprong attack drone force launched at targets in and around St. Petersburg. The drones passed briefly through the edge of Estonian airspace along the Russian border, and fighters were scrambled to monitor their movements. None were shot down for fear of striking Russian territory, Kalmus said. 

The drone force hit the oil and refining complexes in and around Ust-Luga, and large-scale fires were reported on social media. Several oil tanks were damaged, and fires damaged the Novatek hydrocracking unit for gas condensate processing, an LNG terminal, multiple pipelines, and a timber warehouse, according to the Estonian damage assessment. As previously reported, Russian ground-based air defense forces also shot down one or more of their own helicopters during the defense of Ust-Luga, Kalmus confirmed. 

In addition, the Russian Buyan-M class corvette Naro-Fominsk was hit by at least four drones and badly damaged while under way in the Gulf of Finland. With limited onboard point defenses, it was not adequately equipped to defend itself against a heavy strike, Kalmus said.

"It was hit by a significant number of drones. We also know quite precisely how many were hit. I wouldn't go into details . . . [but] it was hit by more than three, which for the Defence Forces would have been a pattern," Kalmus said. "There were fatalities and injuries."

The corvette began making way to St. Petersburg after the attack, but faltered in her progress and required assistance from another vessel. 

Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) has claimed responsibility for the attack on the vessel, but has not provided additional details.