EXPLAINER: Will Israel's election be the end for Netanyahu?

Former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. / Benjamin Netanyahu/Gadi Eisenkot via X

By IntelliNews Tel Aviv bureau October 9, 2026

Israel will face a historic moment on October 27, when its citizens head to the polls to select their next government for the first time in the post-October 7 world.

While personality politics have been at the forefront of Israeli elections for multiple election cycles, with political blocs being divided according to their view of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, multiple key issues have arisen since Israel has been engaged in a multi-front war, including in Gaza and Iran.

The key political question on Israelis’ minds is whether or not Netanyahu will have the ability to hold onto power for another four-year term.

In order to determine the answer, two aspects of the Israeli elections need to be addressed. Firstly, there are the policy issues that are now at the forefront of the national political discussion. Secondly, there is the coalition question, namely whether parties from both sides of the aisle can indeed work together should another political deadlock occur, as was the case in multiple elections leading up to the 2022 vote.

The key issues

With the third anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attacks fresh in the minds of Israelis, voters will be asking themselves whether to put their trust in a government that campaigned heavily on its hawkish security stance, only for the country’s largest-ever security failure to happen under its watch.

Given the uncertainty around who is directly responsible for this failure, there have been theories suggesting that Netanyahu may have used subsequent military actions against Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran, and Syria to exhibit military might and therefore redeem himself in the eyes of voters after October 7, 2023. In fact, the United States’ ambassador to Turkey and Syria, Tom Barrack, went so far as to suggest that the recent Israeli strikes on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur air base may have been a “very aggressive but well-received pre-election concept” by Netanyahu.

Although Barrack’s claim remains unsubstantiated and has not gained popularity in Israel, particularly after Israel’s security establishment claimed that it had intelligence justifying the strike, accountability for the October 7 attacks remains at the forefront in voters’ minds.

There has been a movement in Israel to establish an independent state inquiry into the security failures that allowed the October 7 attacks to occur. While Netanyahu has yet to fulfil this request, Israel's Constitution Committee convened on January 19 to discuss establishing a political investigation committee into the October 7 attacks. For supporters of the opposition, this move appeared suspicious, given that the prime minister only seemed willing to sanction an investigation that is performed under his watch.

Immediately, the question arose: what is Netanyahu trying to hide? Is he directly responsible for the security failure, or is there perhaps another unforeseen controversy in play?

With the question of responsibility for October 7 unresolved, another key issue has been drawn into the spotlight, namely the military exemption for the ultra-Orthodox.

Since October 7, 2023, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) called up an operational force of 530,000 troops at its peak, according to military figures. This included around 360,000 reservists in the first few days of the conflict.

With so many Israelis being called to the front lines, and their families understandably affected, Israelis consider it unjust that ultra-Orthodox citizens receive an exemption from military service.

As Netanyahu’s rifts with political leaders continue to increase, the prime minister was essentially forced to rely on the support of two ultra-Orthodox political parties in order to form a government coalition: Shas and United Torah Judaism.

In the lead-up to the election, this partnership has been at the centre of controversy, particularly after the coalition sought to pass the Haredi draft conscription law in May, after the two ultra-Orthodox parties threatened to withdraw from the coalition and collapse the government.

The bill sought to appease both sides by seeking to implement annual enlistment targets for ultra-Orthodox men, gradually increasing each year. With the bill failing to secure a majority of support in parliament, a stopgap measure was implemented, namely a freeze on the arrest of draft evaders.

With Netanyahu’s Likud party being viewed as hamstrung on the issue due to its reliance on ultra-Orthodox parties, other right-wing voices such as Naftali Bennett and Ofer Winter are looking to capitalise on Netanyahu’s perceived vulnerability.

The main contenders

Given the aforementioned political divide, Israeli political blocs are not cleanly separated by differences in ideology, but rather by personality politics.

According to election poll, former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot has emerged as Netanyahu’s fiercest competitor, rapidly rising in the polls.

Eisenkot has positioned himself as more centrist than Netanyahu, albeit still right-leaning, yet highly critical of the incumbent government. Among his key policies are the establishment of a State Commission of Inquiry into the October 7 security breaches, universal military service (including ultra-Orthodox and Arab citizens of Israel), and reassessing the country’s defence strategy.

Naftali Bennett is another strong contender for the prime minister mantle. In April, Bennett made waves in the media by uniting with the leader of the opposition, Yair Lapid, to form the Beyachad party. This union was particularly notable given Bennett’s stance as a hard-right candidate and Lapid’s appearance as a centrist, sometimes even left-leaning.

While Netanyahu, Eisenkot, and Bennett all seem to have amassed high levels of support according to polls, the formation of a government could prove problematic due to a key mathematical issue.

The coalition crisis

In order to form a government, the party with the highest number of votes needs to form a coalition consisting of at least 61 of the total 120 seats in parliament. Should this party fail to do so, the Israeli president will pass the mandate to the next largest party.

Current polling makes it clear that both Netanyahu and his opponents will struggle to reach the 61-seat mark.

State broadcaster Kan 11 compiled an aggregate of polls for the seven days ending October 9, as depicted in the graph below (created with Google Gemini):

According to this aggregation, the coalition bloc is averaging 51.8 seats, still 10 short of a majority, while the opposition bloc of right-wing, centrist, and left-wing Zionist parties finds itself at 51.2, producing an almost exact deadlock.

Still, there are some kingmakers who could break away from either bloc and crown the next prime minister.

Potential kingmakers

While Bennett finds himself in the opposition camp after crossing the floor in 2021 to become the prime minister of the unity government, he remains a staunch right-winger in terms of policy. Given his opposition to the ultra-Orthodox parties, there could still be a scenario where Netanyahu’s Likud brings its numbers over to Bennett and a coalition agreement between Netanyahu, Bennett, Eisenkot, and potentially Avigdor Lieberman comes into effect.

Despite personal gripes, all four of these parties have commonalities in terms of policies, with Lieberman, Eisenkot, and Bennett all calling for ultra-Orthodox enlistment and hard-line security policies.

The main issue with cobbling together a coalition of this nature is getting the parties to agree on who the prime minister will be.

Another potential kingmaker could be Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael (People of Israel) party. A staunch right-wing military man, Winter has called for ultra-Orthodox enlistment and a hawkish security stance, looking to even facilitate the “voluntary migration” of residents of Gaza.

While Winter has highlighted the vulnerabilities of the current administration, he admitted that he would still recommend Netanyahu as prime minister after election day. Still, he happens to have good ties with some Netanyahu rivals such as Lieberman, having started working together in 2018 when Lieberman served as minister of defence while Winter was his military secretary.

Although Kan News’ aggregation has Winter’s party polling below the electoral threshold, with the most accurate poll ahead of the 2022 election, polls published by i24NEWS, Channel 13, Maariv, and Kan 11 itself have it passing the threshold, indicating that there is still a chance that he could have an impact on the final outcome, potentially becoming a peacemaker who could bring together right-wing voices from both the government and the opposition bloc.

MSF Says Israel Is ‘Asphyxiating’ Gaza, With Palestinians Pushed Into ‘Smaller and Smaller Area’

“The yellow line cannot be treated simply as a line on a map. It has become a mechanism of encirclement and ethnic cleansing.”


A child peers through a hole in a damaged concrete wall in the Al-Tuffah neighborhood of Gaza City, Gaza Strip, near the yellow line, on September 22, 2026.
(Photo by Faiz Qreqa/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

Julia Conley
Oct 05, 2026
COMMON DREAMS

A year after a so-called “ceasefire” deal established the Israel Defense Forces’ “yellow line” in Gaza, separating the IDF-controlled eastern part of Gaza from about 47% of the strip that was originally set aside for Palestinians, the Israeli military has crept westward, block by block—effectively “asphyxiating” Gaza’s population of 2.1 million people, as one aid group said Monday.

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), also known by its English name, Doctors Without Borders, said that the US-backed IDF now occupies about 65% of the Gaza Strip, “squeezing people into a smaller and smaller area” and leaving Palestinians uncertain about where the yellow line begins and ends as they are forced to repeatedly move.

As World ‘Pretends There’s a Ceasefire,’ Israeli Minister Doubles Down on Gaza Expulsion Plan

“People risk being shot by Israeli forces when they approach it, and MSF teams continue to treat people with gunshot wounds sustained nearby,” said the organization.

MSF released its statement on the shifting yellow line and the organization’s struggles to provide medical aid for Palestinians days after the Danish Refugee Council reported on refugee camps near the boundary, where 80% of Palestinians interviewed by the DRC said they’ve faced water shortage and people reported rat and rodent infestations, continued food scarcity despite a ceasefire deal that required a ramp-up of humanitarian aid, and rapid spread of illnesses.

DRC accused Israel of “a policy of protracted displacement,” which was supported by MSF’s reporting Monday.

“The October 2025 ceasefire in Gaza was supposed to end civilians’ suffering,” said DRC. “Nearly a year on, it exists largely in name only. Displacement in Gaza has not ended; it has changed shape.”

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) also warned last month about the IDF’s gradual push westward through demolitions and the movement of military forces, noting that residents have continued living in neighborhoods adjacent to the yellow line, such as Al-Tuffah and Al Zaytoun in Gaza City, “because they have nowhere else to go.”

“Where do we go? This is a question we’ve been asking ourselves for three years,” Safaa Mushtaha of Al-Tuffah told OCHA. “We accepted living near the yellow line, but it’s become unbearable.”

Ibtisam Malika, who also lives near the line, added that “every two to three months, we are forced to move and leave our belongings behind.”

MSF described how families are being “pushed into overcrowded and unlivable conditions” and how the group’s ability to deliver clean water has been impeded when there are attacks near the yellow line.

“The yellow line cannot be treated simply as a line on a map,” says Amande Bazerolle, head of emergency response for MSF in Gaza. “It has become a mechanism of encirclement and ethnic cleansing, while cutting communities off from the infrastructure, healthcare, water, and other essentials they need to survive.”



The medical aid group treated more than 1,500 cases of chickenpox in June and July, and has treated more that 11,000 cases of skin disorders including scabies this year.

One official said a majority of Palestinians in Gaza have less than six liters of water per day for drinking, bathing, and other domestic uses, and Israeli restrictions on the delivery of many items—ones that authorities claim are “dual-use” and could be used by Hamas for military purposes—have left families and medical providers without essentials.

“We are treating gastroenteritis, acute respiratory infections, a lot of skin conditions, hepatitis, bacterial skin infections, scabies, and lice,” said Dr. Murad Asaliyya, medical activities manager for MSF in Gaza. “At the same time, we are facing severe shortages in terms of medical supplies. Even the cream we need to treat scabies has been restricted by the Israeli authorities.”

Other crucial items that have been restricted by Israel include engine oil and spare parts, “crippling the infrastructure needed to keep hospitals, ambulances and water systems running,” said MSF.

MSF emphasized that the area near the yellow line is hardly the only part of Gaza where Palestinians face continued Israeli attacks. In June and July, the group’s medical teams treated more than 1,200 cases of “violent trauma” across the strip, “including blast injuries, burns, gunshot wounds, and injuries resulting from physical assault.”

Since Israel began relentlessly attacking Gaza in October 2023 in retaliation for a Hamas-led attack, the military offensive has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, including more than 20,000 children, with experts warning that the true death toll is likely far higher. About 80% of all structures across Gaza have been damaged, said MSF.

The group released its findings as Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich boasted in an interview about the IDF’s encroachment on the territory that had been ostensibly set aside for Palestinians last year, saying the moving of the yellow line and the destruction of Gaza and its infrastructure “encourages migration” and that “a world will not be built there.”

“Destruction, displacement, and deprivation have become normalized—practices Israel is carrying out with impunity,” said Bazerolle. “Governments must act now to ensure Israel stops the destruction and killing, prevents ethnic cleansing, and stops denying Palestinians the means of survival.”

Explosive CIA leak raises fears of imminent and ‘total collapse’ of major US ally; Israel

Alexander Willis
October 5, 2026 

 RAW STORY


Israeli reservist Lt. Col. Dotan Razili stands at Israel's border with Lebanon, Sept. 17, 2024. (Alexander Willis / Raw Story)

CIA experts warned in a classified report that Israel could be headed toward “civil war” or “total collapse,” Drop Site News reported Monday after being briefed on the assessment by two U.S. sources.

“The writers of this are Israel experts,” one of the U.S. sources told Drop Site News, speaking on the condition of anonymity for the outlet’s report, which was co-published Monday alongside the news outlet Capital & Empire. “This isn’t a fantastical what if — with the upcoming election and the fissures in Israel we should take seriously their conclusion that Israel is one spark away from real internal conflict.”

Titled “Fracture From Within,” the report was compiled in August by Red Cell, an analytical unit within the agency created after the Sept. 11 attacks to “challenge conventional wisdom in the intelligence community” by producing “alternative analysis,” as described by Foreign Policy.

Drop Site News had the content of the report described to it by the two U.S. sources, with the assessment pointing to several “volatile” pressures that appeared to be "converging" ahead of Israel’s Oct. 27 elections, the outlet reported.

Among those pressures straining Israeli society cited in the report are economic struggles, record-high military spending, and mass psychological trauma and “mental illness.” The “deepest fractures in Israeli politics” cited in the report, Drop Site News noted, involved the nation’s growing ultra-Orthodox population, whose men have historically received broad exemptions to Israel’s mandatory military service “while continuing to receive state benefits.”


“Their collective refusal to serve is not rooted in opposition to Israel’s wars, as ultra-Orthodox leaders argue that military service threatens religious life and their obligation to Torah study,” Drop Site News’ report reads. “But after years in which reservists have been repeatedly called away from their jobs and families, the exemption has become a potent source of resentment in Israeli society.”

ORTHODOX FASCISM

Serb separatist politician Milorad Dodik thanks Trump, Putin as he declares victory in contested Bosnia vote

Copyright AP Photo

By Malek Fouda

Published on 05/10/2026 -  EURONEWS

Pro-Russia Serb nationalist politician Milorad Dodik – who is serving a six-year ban from holding public office for defying rulings of Bosnia’s international envoy and Constitutional Court, claimed victory on Sunday, saying his party would hold a “vast majority”.

The former president of Bosnia's Serb statelet, Milorad Dodik, said his party had retained power in the entity and its seat on the shared presidency, as preliminary results showed a drop in turnout for Bosnia's general elections.

Dodik led the declarations for a dizzying number of posts to be decided in the general elections in a complex system that has held the partitioned Balkan country together since the 1995 peace deal.

The key race was for the tripartite presidency, split between Bosnian Muslims or Bosniaks, and the Serb and Croat ethnic groups. Dodik's Serb nationalists ran on a platform of greater autonomy and secessionist rhetoric.

"If it had not been for (US President) Donald Trump's magnificent victory, we would probably be political corpses today," he told supporters in Banja Luka, in a speech that also thanked his close ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"But now, thanks to the new environment, we are political winners," he added.

Zeljka Cvijanovic of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) speaks after the publication of general election results, in Banja Luka, Bosnia, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026 Radivoje Pavicic/Copyright 2026 The AP. All rights reserved

The 67-year-old was not on the ballot after being convicted of overstepping his powers and banned from the presidency for six years.

But he remains a central figure in the Bosnian-Serb Republika Srpska entity.

With 95% of the ballots counted, according to electoral officials, his candidate, Zeljka Cvijanovic, was firmly on track to retain her spot in the presidency.

Meanwhile, Bosniak presidential incumbent Denis Becirovic also claimed victory after results showed him leading a tighter race for his seat.

"A freedom-loving, anti-fascist and civic Bosnia and Herzegovina is alive," Becirovic, from the Social Democrats party, told supporters in Sarajevo.

Denis Becirovic (SDP) poses for a photo with his wife after declaring himself winner of the Bosniak seat of the tripartite Bosnian Presidency in Sarajevo, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026 Armin Durgut/Copyright 2026 The AP. 

Bosnian Croat nationalist candidate Darijana Filipovic also claimed victory in her bid for the Croat presidential seat.

Dodik's party was also projected to retain power in the Serb entity's parliament and local presidency by a large margin.

The US-brokered ‘Dayton agreement’ ended the 1992-95 conflict but entrenched divisions that often paralyse decision-making.

It divided Bosnia into two semi-autonomous entities –s the Serb-run RS and a Muslim-Croat federation – linked by a weak central government.

Turnout dropped nearly 10% from the last election in 2022, to around 42% on Sunday, according to official figures.

A man places his ballot into an electronic ballot box during the general election in Sarajevo, Bosnia, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026 Armin Durgut/Copyright 2026 The AP. All rights reserved

In the Muslim-Croat federation, Becirovic advocates a path toward the European Union and NATO

But if Dodik's party returns to the presidency, it would almost certainly mean the political deadlock that has blocked the necessary reforms for years would remain.

After two decades in power, Dodik and his party have repeatedly clashed with the country's central authorities and vocally oppose EU membership.

Croat nationalist parties are also pushing for electoral reform. They want a greater say in choosing the Croat member of the presidency in the entity they share with the more numerous Bosniaks.

 

 

 

Bosnian Serb strongman claims election win, thanks Trump and Putin

Sarajevo (AFP) – The former president of Bosnia's Serb statelet, Milorad Dodik, said his party had retained power in the entity and its seat on the shared presidency, as preliminary results showed a drop in turnout for Bosnia's general elections.


Issued on: 04/10/2026 -  RFI

Voters fill out ballots as they vote in Bosnia and Herzegovina's general election at voting station in Laktasi, near Banja Luka © - / AFP

Dodik led the declarations for a dizzying number of posts to be decided in the general elections in a complex system that has held the partitioned Balkan country together since the 1995 peace deal.

The key race was for the tripartite presidency, split between Bosnian Muslims or Bosniaks, and the Serb and Croat ethnic groups. Dodik's Serb nationalists ran on a platform of greater autonomy and secessionist rhetoric.

"If it had not been for Donald Trump's magnificent victory... we would probably be political corpses today," he told supporters in Banja Luka, in a speech that also thanked his close ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"But now, thanks to the new environment, we are political winners," he added.

The 67-year-old was not on the ballot after being convicted of overstepping his powers and banned from the presidency for six years.

But he remains a central figure in the Bosnian Serb Republika Srpska entity.

With 95 percent of the ballots counted, according to electoral officials, his candidate, Zeljka Cvijanovic, was firmly on track to retain her spot in the presidency.

Meanwhile, Bosniak presidential incumbent Denis Becirovic also claimed victory after results showed him leading a tighter race for his seat.

Former president of Republika Srpska and former member of Bosnia's tripartite presidency Milorad Dodik casts his ballot © - / AFP

"A freedom-loving, anti-fascist and civic Bosnia and Herzegovina is alive," Becirovic, from the Social Democrats party, told supporters in Sarajevo.

Bosnian Croat nationalist candidate Darijana Filipovic also claimed victory in her bid for the Croat presidential seat.

Dodik's party was also projected to retain power in the Serb entity's parliament and local presidency by a large margin.

The US-brokered Dayton agreement ended the 1992-1995 conflict but entrenched divisions that often paralyse decision-making.

It divided Bosnia into two semi-autonomous entities -- the Serb-run RS and a Muslim-Croat federation -- linked by a weak central government.
Low turnout

The major parties' repeated focus on war-era rhetoric of ethnic division frustrated some voters, who hoped for candidates to address economic concerns in one of Europe's poorest countries.

Economist Merima Cerim Karisik, voting in a northern Sarajevo suburb, told AFP she hoped for change and a turn away from the tired politics of the past.

"That what we have seen over the past 30 years will finally come to an end," she said.

There were no reports of major incidents at polling stations © - / AFP

Amela Hadzic, after casting her ballot at the same polling station, said it felt like the country had gone backwards recently.

"I hope people have seen that things cannot go on like this. I doubt there will be any major changes, but hopefully things will at least get better, however little," Hadzic said.

With the debut of biometric identification and the scanning of paper ballots at thousands of polling stations, authorities said technical issues had caused voting to be extended at some stations, but there were no reports of major incidents.

Turnout dropped nearly 10 percentage points from the last election in 2022, to around 42 percent, according to official figures.

- No progress on EU goals -

In the Muslim-Croat federation, Becirovic advocates a path toward the European Union and NATO.

But if Dodik's party returns to the presidency, it would almost certainly mean the political deadlock that has blocked the necessary reforms for years would remain.

After two decades in power, Dodik and his party have repeatedly clashed with the country's central authorities and vocally oppose EU membership.

Croat nationalist parties are also pushing for electoral reform. They want a greater say in choosing the Croat member of the presidency in the entity they share with the more numerous Bosniaks.

© 2026 AFP

Bosnian elections deliver strong results for country's main ethnic parties

SNSD leader Milorad Dodik celebrates the party's victories at national and entity level. / Milorad Dodik via XFacebook

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By IntelliNews October 4, 2026

Bosnia's main ethnic parties appeared to be strengthening their grip on power in the October 4 elections, preliminary results showed, potentially complicating the country's bid to join the European Union and prolonging a political deadlock that has frustrated voters and Western powers alike.

With 92.3% of polling stations processed, the Bosniak nationalist Party of Democratic Action (SDA) was the largest party in the race for the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina, taking 19.89% of the vote, or 240,762 ballots, according to preliminary data from the Central Election Commission.

The Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), the dominant party among Bosnia's Serbs and led by Milorad Dodik, was second nationally with 16.44%, followed by the multi-ethnic Social Democratic Party (SDP) with 9.39%.

The coalition around the main Bosnian Croat party, HDZ BiH, was fourth with 8%, while a list led by Republika Srpska opposition politician Draško Stanivuković took 5.99%. The results are preliminary and votes are still being processed.

In the race for the three-member presidency, Denis Bećirović, representing the United for the State coalition, led with 38.03% for the Bosniak seat, ahead of SDA leader Bakir Izetbegović on 34.25%. Bećirović is a staunch advocate of Bosnia's EU and Nato integration.

SNSD candidate Željka Cvijanović had a strong lead for the Serb seat, with 55.6% of the vote after 80% of polling stations were processed. HDZ BiH candidate Darijana Filipović was leading for the Croat seat with 48.19%, convincingly ahead of rival candidates.

SNSD victories 

Dodik declared victory for his SNSD across all levels of government after the first preliminary results were released, also indicating a victory for the party's candidate for the presidency of Bosnia's Serb entity Republika Srpska.

"I declare victory at all levels. Thank you to everyone. This is a result similar to that of 20 years ago," Dodik said, reported Klix.ba.

He also linked the result to the political climate in the United States, saying that without Donald Trump's return to the White House, his party might have been in a weaker position.

In Republika Srpska, the Serb entity that makes up one of Bosnia's two autonomous regions, the SNSD was on 38.93% with nearly 87% of votes counted for the entity's parliament, and Dodik's son Igor Dodik topping the list. Stanivuković's Movement for a Safe Srpska was second on 14.19%, followed by SDS on 12.27%. The party's candidate Savo Minić is on track to secure the entity's presidency. 

Complex political system

Bosnia's complex political system was established under the 1995 Dayton peace agreement, which ended the 1992-95 war and divided the country between the Serb-dominated Republika Srpska and the Bosniak- and Croat-majority Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. A weak central government and a three-member presidency link the two entities.

The arrangement has frequently produced political stalemate, with leaders from the two entities and the country's three main ethnic groups often unable to agree on decisions at the state level.

That paralysis has become a major obstacle to Bosnia's EU ambitions. The country received EU candidate status in December 2022 and the bloc agreed in 2024 to open accession negotiations. But formal talks have yet to begin because Bosnia has not completed key reforms, including measures to strengthen judicial oversight and anti-corruption legislation.

A stronger showing by the established ethnic parties could make it harder to overcome those divisions, particularly if the new parliament reproduces the confrontations that have repeatedly blocked state-level decisions.

The election also took place against a backdrop of competing foreign influence. The EU wants to bring Bosnia and other Western Balkan countries into the bloc, while Russia has maintained close ties with the leadership of Republika Srpska and supported its political autonomy. The United States remains a major player in Bosnia, both through its role in the Dayton peace settlement and its broader efforts to limit Russian influence.

Washington is also backing a proposed $1.5bn gas pipeline intended to connect Bosnia to Croatia and provide an alternative to Russian energy supplies. The project has become part of a wider contest over Bosnia's future energy orientation, with the EU raising concerns about the transparency of the selection of the US-linked investor.

Tech issues 

Election day was marked by some problems with the introduction of new voting technology. The election watchdog coalition Pod Lupom said it had recorded 46 serious violations by 9:30 a.m., including problems involving election materials, polling procedures and access for observers. Only 52.1% of polling stations opened at exactly 7 a.m., while another 37% opened within 15 minutes. The new technology was nevertheless operational before voting began at 99% of the polling stations observed, Pod Lupom said.

Turnout was 28.8% by 3 p.m., 8.12 percentage points below the level recorded at the same time in the 2022 elections, according to the election commission. The relatively low participation reflected the frustration of many voters with a political system that has changed little despite years of promises of reform.

 

Bosnia awaits for final general election results as preliminary count remains unclear

By Jeremiah Fisayo-Bambi with AP

Published on 04/10/2026 - EURONEWS

Around 3.4 million eligible voters in Bosnia headed to the polls to choose the three members of the country’s multi-ethnic presidency, lawmakers for the national Parliament, and heads of institutions for the country’s two entities.

Polls have now closed in Bosnia’s general election on Sunday, where preliminary results remain unclear, and the country is waiting for further updates in the coming hours to get a clearer picture of the outcome.

Some 3.4 million voters were eligible to choose the three members of the multi-ethnic presidency, national lawmakers, and leaders of the country's two entities: the Muslim-majority Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Serb-dominated Republika Srpska.

The complex system of institutions was created by the US-brokered 1995 peace agreement to manage divisions among Muslim Bosniaks, Orthodox Serbs and Catholic Croats.

Early reports show voting was delayed at several polling places due to problems with new digital voting technology, which was introduced to address earlier concerns about vote tampering. Bosnia's Election Commission made this decision to prolonge the 7 p.m. voting cutoff at polling stations that experienced problems.

The election comes as many citizens in the multiethnic Balkan state face everyday problems, while some leading politicians stoke the war-era tensions that have kept the country divided since the 1992-95 conflict.

By 3 p.m. around 27% of voters had cast their ballots, according to the commission, a decrease from 35% at the same time during the last national election.

New election security measures

For the first time, authorities were using electronic voter identification and ballot scanning to curb the irregularities and organised manipulation that undermined confidence in earlier elections.

Most of the 75 parties running are organised along ethnic lines. The Bosniak nationalist Party of Democratic Action has campaigned on keeping Bosnia united against Serb separatism, while many Bosnian Croats back ethnic parties such as the local branch of Croatia's ruling Croatian Democratic Union.

Izetbegovic, who was beaten by Becirovic in 2022, is seeking a third term as president of the centre-right SDA, the largest Bosniak party in the nation.

A woman places her ballot into an electronic ballot box during the general election in Sarajevo, Bosnia, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026. (AP Photo/Armin Durgut) AP Photo

Many disillusioned citizens say politicians use nationalism to avoid tackling real problems like low living standards and the exodus of young people. Mostar voter Ivan Silic said nothing has improved since he first voted and that politicians live well while everyone else's situation stays the same.

Dodik looms large despite not being on the ballot

Despite not being on the ballot, the campaign has been dominated by Milorad Dodik, the pro-Russian, separatist former president of Republika Srpska. Dodik is banned from public office after being convicted of defying the international envoy who oversees the peace agreement.

Fresh from meeting Russia's president Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Dodik leads a party, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, that is likely to win in Republika Srpska.

Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, right, and Prime Minister of Republika Srpska Savo Minic enter a hall for the talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin. AP Photo

At a final rally Friday in Banja Luka, attended by Russia's ambassador, Igor Khalabukov, Dodik declared Bosnia is "dead" and "an impossible country". "It doesn't make any sense," he stressed.

Off the ballot for the first time in almost 30 years, he is still in command and is present across the country's media, says Dragan Bursac, an analyst. In Bursac's view, the ban is not working, and Dodik is exploiting it.

Ethnic tensions continue to rise

Bosnia has been peaceful in recent years, but its politicians have kept ethnic divisions alive. Bosnian Serb leaders such as Dodik have pushed for their entity to break away, raising Western fears of renewed instability.

The Balkan nation remains one of Europe's poorest countries, still recovering from a war that began after it declared independence from Serb-led Yugoslavia and ethnic Serbs took up arms to carve out their own state. That conflict killed more than 100,000 people and displaced millions.

The country is formally seeking European Union membership, but progress has stalled despite EU efforts to push its leaders toward reform.

Major powers continue to influence socio-economic and political life in the small Balkan nation. Russia is holding down the EU's efforts to expand its membership throughout the Balkans, including Bosnia, while continuing to back the Republika Srpska.

While a $1.5 billion pipeline project to import US liquefied natural gas is being pushed by a corporation with ties to the Trump administration as part of the US's efforts to gain influence.

Relate

And recently, wartime wounds were reopened by public tributes in Serbia and among Bosnian Serbs to Ratko Mladic, the wartime army commander who died in late August while serving a life sentence for genocide and other war crimes.

Bosnian Serbs regard him as a hero, despite his UN court conviction over the killing of more than 8,000 Muslim men and boys in Srebrenica in 1995.

Senior Bosnian Serb officials attended his funeral in Belgrade, drawing sharp EU criticism and angering Bosniak politicians.

WAR IN UKRAINE

What links matryoshka dolls, Belarusian nuns, French churches and Russian troops?

In recent years, visitors to French churches and cathedrals may have come across Belarusian nuns selling matryoshka dolls, religious icons and honey. They come from the Saint Elisabeth Convent in Minsk and present these sales as a means of funding their charitable work. However, the convent openly supports Russia’s war in Ukraine and has helped collect supplies for Russian soldiers.


Issued on: 01/10/2026 - RFI

Matryoshka dolls – commonly known as "Russian dolls" – are being sold by Belarusian nuns at French churches, with the funds supporting Russian troops. 

© Karl-Josef Hildenbrand / picture alliance / Getty Image

“The nuns at the convent look after orphaned children, who are usually abandoned because they have a physical or mental disability. The orphanage is home to 200 children. The sisters are involved in other social work – in particular, they look after the homeless, alcoholics and drug addicts at a shelter 30km from the convent," notes the announcement of a sale organised by the sisters of Saint Elisabeth Convent at the Sacred Heart parish in Val d’Or, central France, in July 2022.

In May 2023, the Diocese of Paris announced a similar "exhibition and sale" at the parish of Saint-Léon, featuring icons, handicrafts, honey and herbal teas. In May this year, the Belarusian nuns were selling their wares at the Celtic Orthodox Church in Saint-Dolay in Brittany.

During the summer, they ran a stall for several weeks in Les Sables-d’Olonne near Nantes on France's Atlantic coast – which was the subject of an investigation by the newspaper Ouest-France. Because since 2022, members of the convent have taken part in fundraising campaigns for the Russian army, financing vehicles and equipment.

Continent-wide network

Natallia Vassilevitch, a Belarusian theologian in exile, is the founder of the organisation Christian Vision – which has been documenting the monastery’s activities for several years.

She tells RFI the community carefully tailors its message to its audience. "On the Russian-language website, there are photos of children with automatic rifles. They know exactly who they’re addressing. They understand what can be said and what cannot be said."

She continued: "These contacts were first established [by the convent] in the late 1990s and early 2000s. [They] would simply load up a car a bit haphazardly, the nuns would set off, arrive at the parishes and say: 'Hello, we've come from Belarus, we do good work, we help children, can we sell our goods here?' At any Orthodox event, any religious festival, any Christmas market, wherever you go in Europe, the monastery sells its products."

According to Vassilevitch, over the years these nuns have built up a network across the continent. Between them, members of the convent speak several foreign languages and organisations linked to the community have been registered in Germany and Poland.

A 2024 investigation by the Belarusian media outlet Buro described Saint Elisabeth Convent as a veritable "Orthodox business conglomerate" around which several legal entities, dozens of retail outlets and numerous workshops are centred. Around 1,600 people are said to work in the various organisations linked to the monastery.

Vehicles and drones

Christian Vision's StopSEM project tracks fundraising campaigns for Russian military personnel and has gathered publications from the convent and its partner groups documenting examples.

Some of these fundraising operations are channelled through a group called Aid to the Brothers, coordinated by the convent's Sister Alexandra, whose secular name is Liudmila Liakhova.

In 2023, Christian Vision identified at least seven vehicles whose purchase had been financed in whole or in part with the help of the convent's network, and which were intended for the transport of military personnel and the evacuation of the wounded.

 Drones were also supplied.

When questioned about these purchases at the time by Vot Tak, an independent Russian-language media outlet operated by Poland's public broadcaster, Sister Alexandra confirmed that her group was assisting the military by purchasing requested equipment.

According to Vassilevitch, however, the convent's involvement goes beyond sending supplies. She reports that it is encouraging vulnerable men, notably former prisoners, to join the Russian army.

"They tell them these stories with great enthusiasm: 'look, our brother went off to fight, he died over there and became a hero', whereas he could have been a homeless alcoholic who died in a gutter."

A priest decorated by Putin

The convent's spiritual father, Archpriest Andrei Lemeshonok, has since 2022 made numerous statements justifying the Russian invasion. In May 2025, he declared that the convent itself was now "a combat unit".

On 4 November 2025, Lemeshonok was received at the Kremlin and presented by President Vladimir Putin with the Pushkin Medal – a Russian state honour awarded, according to a presidential decree, for his contribution to the preservation and promotion of the Russian language and culture abroad.

During the ceremony, Lemeshonok thanked the Russian president for "the hope" he had restored to the people, comparing his commitment to a journey towards Golgotha, the hill outside Jerusalem where the Christian gospels say Jesus Christ was crucified.

This ideological affinity was nothing new. During mass protests against Belarus's President Alexander Lukashenko in 2020, Lemeshonok took a stand in favour of the Belarusian authorities. In January 2023, Lukashenko himself visited Saint Elisabeth, where he too publicly defended his support for Russians fighting in the war.

Question over visas

Despite this, representatives from the convent continue to make fundraising trips to France.

In Les Sables-d’Olonne, Father Antoine Nouwavi, head of the local parish, explained to Ouest-France that he had refused to welcome the nuns in 2023 and 2024 after discovering the allegations against their convent.

He finally agreed to their return after receiving a letter from the Mother Superior of Saint Elisabeth stating that reports of her support for the war were false and that the money raised in France was intended exclusively for charitable causes.

The priest acknowledged, however, that he did not have the means to verify the final destination of the funds raised.

Christian Vision says it has alerted church leaders in France to the group's activities. According to Vassilevitch, the number of communities willing to welcome the nuns has since fallen.

Other European countries have taken a stricter approach. In Sweden, the Church last year officially recommended that its parishes no longer host the nuns of Saint Elisabeth. Their stalls have also been banned or closed down in Poland, the United Kingdom and Switzerland. In Germany, a member of the Bundestag has called for an investigation into their activities.

Vassilevitch questions why countries continue to grant the nuns visas, given that it is currently difficult for Belarusians to obtain a permit to enter the Schengen zone.

"The question is, why? Why does no one check, when they cross the border, what they are carrying, or whether the use being made of these visas actually corresponds to the reason they were issued, given the various threats Europe is currently facing?"

When asked by RFI about the presence and activities in France of representatives from Saint Elisabeth Convent, the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs replied that it had "no information to provide on this matter".

This article has been adapted from the original version in French by Anya Stroganova.