"Energy Dominance" In Action
Middle East crisis has made the U.S. the marginal supplier
The crisis in the Middle East and in particular the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has upended global oil markets. Both crude oil and refined products are now in short supply. Refiners around the world are desperate to get their hands on alternative sources of crude oil, almost at any price. However, the options are limited and dwindling. The volume of Russian and Iranian oil in floating storage is shrinking fast since the U.S. has lifted some of its restrictions, allowing countries to buy these previously sanctioned barrels. Several countries have tapped into their strategic petroleum reserves, but most of this oil is being allocated to domestic refiners and not traded internationally. So, the focus has shifted to the Atlantic Basin, where several producers (Venezuela, Canada, Brazil) have some capability to ramp up production and exports. However, in this Weekly Tanker Opinion we want to highlight the United States.
The United States is by far the largest oil producer in the world. In 2018 it surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia due to advancements in hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling. U.S. crude oil exports, which (re)started in earnest after the crude export ban was lifted about 10 years ago, quickly ramped up from 500,000 barrels per day in early 2016 to average more than 4.0 Mb/d in 2023 and 2024. According to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, exports climbed to 5.2 million bpd, the highest in seven months. This was due to record demand from Asian and European buyers, who are scrambling to replace barrels from the Middle East that are trapped inside the Persian Gulf because of the war.
U.S. crude oil exporters are expanding their reach. Greece has bought U.S. crude for the first time ever, while Turkey bought a cargo for the first time in a year. The one limitation that could cap the U.S. export potential is the specifications of the U.S. crude. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main U.S. export, is a light sweet crude, while the refiners are trying to replace medium sour barrels from the Middle East. Mars crude is a medium sour grade produced in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, but its production volumes are limited.
At the same time as exports surged, U.S. crude imports took a dive. Imports from Canada were at their lowest level for this year. Flows from Saudi Arabia and Iraq were down significantly as well, for obvious reasons. As a result, net imports of crude oil (the difference between imports and exports), narrowed to 66,000 barrels per day last week, the lowest on record in weekly data that goes back to 2001. This means that the U.S. nearly turned into a net crude exporter last week for the first time since World War II. Exports are expected to increase significantly in the coming weeks and this switch to a net exporter could become reality.
However, as a result of this ramp up in flows, the U.S. is approaching its export capacity. The U.S. is capable to export up to 6.0 Mb/d, according to estimates from industry experts. Pipeline capacity and export infrastructure are the limiting factors. U.S. exporters have become very adept at maximizing exports with a combination of direct loadings in U.S. Gulf ports and reverse lightering in designated areas offshore. However, outside of Corpus Christi, which can partially load a VLCC (only one reverse lightering needed), the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) is the only U.S. facility in the U.S. Gulf that can fully load a VLCC. More deepwater terminals are being planned, but none are available during this crisis.
U.S. refiners have also ramped up production and exports, motivated by strong refining margins and high crack spreads. In recent weeks, we have seen seaborne clean product exports (excluding LPG, lubes and chemicals) exceed 3.5 Mb/d driven by increased flows to Asia. These volumes represent record-highs.
The booming crude oil and refined product exports from the U.S. have benefited all tanker segments. The desire to get access to barrels (and get them quickly) has motivated certain Asian charterers to import crude from the U.S. Gulf on Aframaxes, routing it via the Panama Canal. These are not trades you would expect to see in normal circumstances, but these are not normal circumstances. When the conflict ends, vessels will reposition and eventually normal trade patterns will resume. Until that time, we do expect increased volatility and higher freight rates for most tanker segments to continue.
This research note appears courtesy of Poten & Partners.
The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.
Riding the LNG Wave
(Article originally published in Jan/Feb 2026 edition.)
The age of global LNG is upon us.
In the latter half of 2025, the global supply increased nearly seven percent. This came largely from North America, which frankly has LNG down to a science. It's abundant here. We know how to extract it in an environmentally conscious manner, and we have the infrastructure to process, store and move it.
New U.S. LNG projects reaching final investment decisions in 2025 included Louisiana LNG, Corpus Christi Trains 8 & 9, CP2 phase 1, Rio Grande LNG Train 4 and Port Arthur Phase 2. This new wave further solidifies the U.S.'s position as the world's largest LNG supplier with global market share expected to increase from about 25 percent last year to 33 percent by the end of the decade.
The rise in supply is expected to drive increased global demand in 2026, primarily from Asia, but also from other global markets as they invest in infrastructure to effectively import this clean, abundant energy source.
And as LNG produces 30 percent less CO? than heavy fuel oil and nearly zero sulfur oxides, it's the cleanest of fossil fuels and an ideal choice for meeting emissions targets over the next decade.
Although achieving that goal is not without its challenges.
Class guidance
In ABS's 2025 Sustainability Outlook, "Vision Meets Reality," the authors rightly note that "from a total cost of ownership perspective, clean fuels currently present a weak economic case due to their high costs and limited availability." And while clean fuels such as ammonia may play a role in the energy transition, they're unlikely to achieve significant decarbonization by 2040.
Conversely, LNG offers lower base costs and an established supply chain, contributing to its being specified in over 70 percent of alternative-fuel newbuild orders.
The cruise, ro/ro, car-carrying and container industries have widely adopted alternative fuels over conventional ones. As ABS has become the largest classification society by gross tonnage in service as of 2025 while maintaining a strong presence in the tanker, gas carrier and containership sectors, it stands perfectly positioned to guide shipowners in their transition journey.
Lloyds Register (LR) is another source of expert advice to vessel operators in their energy transition journey.
The energy transition challenge is really a risk management problem. What fuel to choose? What equipment to purchase? Which ones will be readily available long term with the global infrastructure to support them?
LR's approach is not prescriptive – it remains firmly fuel agnostic. The company has invested significantly in the study of all alternative fuels including its involvement in the Methane Abatement in Maritime Innovation Initiative. This collaboration, led by Safetytech Accelerator, unites industry leaders, tech innovators and maritime stakeholders working together toward the goal of significantly reducing methane emissions from LNG use as a marine fuel.
"Methane slip," as it's known, is the release of unburned methane into the atmosphere from engines using natural gas or liquefied natural gas (LNG) as fuel. It occurs when combustion isn't 100 percent efficient. Because methane is a potent greenhouse gas (over 25 times stronger than CO? over 100 years), minimizing slip is crucial for climate change mitigation.
A significant milestone for LR is the recent renewal surveys and drydocks for P&O Cruises' Iona and Carnival Cruise Line's Mardi Gras – the first major LNG drydocks for large passenger vessels in Europe. The work represented the execution of a highly sophisticated technical program, the culmination of more than a year of detailed collaboration, planning and risk management.
Drydocking a LNG-fueled cruise ship is a fundamentally different exercise from a conventional refit. With vessels spending only a brief period out of service, LNG system maintenance windows are correspondingly narrow.
"Starting 18 months in advance," explains Andrew Bennett, Machinery Survey Policy Manager in LR's Technical Directorate, "we worked closely with the client to understand their specific operation, maintenance and drydocking challenges and helped them develop detailed schedules with optimized surveys agreed in advance and aligned to meet their requirements."
Bunkering Expertise
Running on LNG requires a bunkering infrastructure to support the operation.
Headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida, TOTE Services is playing a critical role in bringing LNG fuel to the maritime sector through their design and construction of the bunker barges Clean Jacksonville and Clean Everglades, operated by Seaside LNG.
The Clean Jacksonville was the first membrane LNG barge in the world. Membrane technology provides a better space-to-weight ratio and replaces the older, pressure vessel technology used previously for storage and transport. TOTE has completed over 400 bunkering operations with the Clean Jacksonville since it was first launched.
Another newbuild support vessel entering the market in 2025 was the Soaring Eagle, an inland tug operated by Colonial Towing, a subsidiary of the Colonial Group. It will operate as part of an articulated tug-and-barge unit transporting up to 32,000 barrels of fuel products between Charleston, South Carolina and Jacksonville, Florida. Soaring Eagle is the fourth vessel to join the current active fleet of Colonial Towing.
Also in Florida, Glander International Bunkering is making moves with a recent change of leadership. Michael Cammarata replaced long-time Managing Director Larry Messina, who retired after 34 years of service. Cammarata has spent his entire career in bunkering, having joined the company back in 1988.
As such, he brings decades of experience and deep market insight into his role. He also brings strong relationships across the industry. His appointment ensures continuity for the Florida office. It also supports future growth and long-term success.
Global FIDs
We've looked at the U.S.-based projects. But what about the rest of the world?
Chevron's Gorgon LNG project received a $2 billion final investment decision at the end of 2025 to develop Stage 3 off Australia's northwest coast. The development will be used as backfill for the existing LNG export operation and will link the offshore Geryon and Eurytion natural gas fields to Gorgon's existing infrastructure on Barrow Island.
In Gorgon Stage 3, six wells will be drilled across two fields, part of a series of planned subsea tiebacks.
Shell's plans for drilling at the Crux field, also offshore northern Australia, were accepted around the same time. Crux's gas will be sent as backfill to the Prelude floating LNG vessel, the world's largest.
In southern Australia, U.S. oil company ConocoPhillips has just finished its first exploration well in the region and will now move to a nearby location for a second well.
Chevron also made a final investment decision early in January to expand Israel's Leviathan natural gas field, a move that will significantly boost gas production in the eastern Mediterranean. The decision comes weeks after Israel finalized what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described as the largest energy deal in the country's history – a long-term gas export agreement with Egypt valued at about 112 billion shekels, roughly $35 billion.
The Leviathan expansion provides the upstream capacity needed to support those larger export commitments over time. Chevron operates Leviathan alongside Israeli partners. When the expanded project comes online later this decade, it will further help entrench Israel's role as a regional gas supplier.
A strong outlook
With new projects sanctioned, infrastructure expanding, and class, operators and bunkering providers aligned around practical risk management, the LNG market enters 2026 with strong momentum.
Growth will be in delivered capacity, proven technology and real-world operating experience. As demand accelerates and standards continue to evolve, LNG is positioned to remain the cornerstone of global marine and energy growth through the next decade.
The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.
