DOOMSCROLLING

El Niño Armageddon Qiyamah Has Officially Begun – OpEd

June 12, 2026 
By Rabbi Allen S. Maller


El Niño has officially begun, and it is forecast to intensify into a very strong or “Super” El Niño with major shifts in global weather patterns and an even hotter climate, according to a new report released Thursday morning from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. El Niño is a periodic weather pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean that alters winds and features unusually hot waters in the central and eastern Pacific. These changes in winds and ocean temperatures have knock-on effects on weather patterns worldwide.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is giving this El Niño a 63% chance of becoming a “very strong” event (known as a Super El Niño) and one of the “largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950.” In a sign of the center’s certainty in the forecast, it’s giving 100% odds of El Niño continuing through the fall and extremely high odds continuing into the winter. To be considered a Super El Niño, tropical Pacific water temperatures must be more than 2 degrees above average. Some reliable computer models suggest that bar will be greatly exceeded.

For the past few months, large volumes of unusually hot water have been sloshing from the western Pacific to the eastern tropical Pacific, forced by shifting winds. This unusually hot water has traveled about 600 to 1,000 feet beneath the ocean surface and is beginning to rise to the sea surface thousands of miles to the east, closer to South America. Similar dynamics have played out during past intense El Niños. Super El Niño events are relatively rare, with the most recent ones occurring in 2015-16, 1997-98 and 1982-83.

Because El Niño involves the transfer of a large amount of heat energy from the ocean to the atmosphere, this phenomenon also has implications for the global climate. It boosts global average surface temperatures on top of the human-caused warming trend from fossil fuel pollution, virtually guaranteeing that 2027 will eclipse 2024 to set a record for the planet’s new warmest year. Studies have shown that strong El Niños can reduce countries’ economic growth through disaster losses and food supply disruptions.


There is an extra dose of uncertainty about this Super El Niño’s impacts because this event is occurring when the world is already much hotter than average due to global warming from fossil fuel pollution.

Sea levels are rising faster than at any time in 4,000 years, with China’s major coastal cities at particular risk. The rapid increase is driven by warming oceans and melting ice, while human activities like groundwater pumping make it worse.

Also a group of scientists, whose research was recently published in Science, used satellite data to determine why these severe heat waves are happening. They found that 96% of the world’s ocean surfaces experienced heat wave conditions, compared with a historical (1982–2022) average of 73.7%. They also found that the average duration of heat waves had gone up to 120 days, quadrupling the historical average.

I am a Reform Rabbi who believes our planet and our species will survive and thrive through the coming climate change catastrophes, but the longer humans delay transforming our way of life away from carbon based fuels like gas, oil and coal; the more it will cost us.

The majority of Christians, Jews, and Muslims do not believe that all of humanity is moving closer and closer to a catastrophic Judgement Day. The minority who do think that Judgement Day is coming soon share the usual negative, fear-filled views of most end-times thinkers: Christians, Jews and especially Muslims, who do believe that: “The hour (of Judgement) is near” (Qur’an 54:1); and ˹The time of˺ people’s judgment has drawn near, yet they heedlessly turn away.” (Qur’an 21:1)


According to a 2012 poll by the Pew Research Center, at least half of Muslims in nine Muslim-majority countries believe that the coming of the Mahdi is “imminent,” and could happen in their lifetime. Sadly these end-times thinkers always see pre-ordained threats of a cataclysmic world wide doom; and not just the warning of the consequences if we humans do not repent and change our behavior.

This is clearly a warning for all serious Christians, Jews and Muslims. A World Meteorological Organization forecast for the next several years also predicts a 90% chance that the world will set yet another record for the hottest year by the end of 2026; that the Atlantic will continue to brew more potentially dangerous hurricanes; meteorologists say large parts of land in the Northern Hemisphere will be 1.4 degrees warmer than recent decades, and the U.S. Southwest’s drought will continue.

It is true that human society has changed more rapidly, violently, and fundamentally in the last century of the second millennium than ever before in history. Doctors saved the lives of millions. Dictators sacrificed the lives of millions. Populations exploded and birthrates declined. Technology produced both worldwide prosperity and pollution at the same time.

Knowing all this, should we look upon the first century of the third millennium with optimistic hope or with fatalistic trepidation? Are the world and our society heading towards a wonder-filled new age, or toward a doomsday; or are both occurring concurrently because breakdown is always a prelude to breakthrough?

Many who believe in the Biblical vision of a Messianic Age use the insights of the Prophets of Israel to provide guidance in understanding the social, economic, scientific, and cultural upheavals sweeping society. Usually, it is the dramatic dangers of the pre-Messianic tribulation that are emphasized. I will focus on the positive signs developing throughout the world that accord with the Messianic vision of the Biblical Prophets.


In most non-Abrahamic religious traditions, redemption is defined only in terms of individual enlightenment or personal salvation. However, the Abrahamic Prophets said that redemption is a transformation of human society that would occur through the catalyst of the transformation of the Abrahamic religious community. This transformation, which will take place in this world at some future time, is called the Messianic Age.

The transition to the Messianic Age is called the birth pangs of the Messiah. The birth of a redeemed Messianic world may be the result of easy or difficult labor. If everyone would simply live according to the moral teachings of his or her religious tradition, we would ourselves bring about the Messianic Age. But, if we will not do it voluntarily, it will come through social and political upheavals, worldwide conflicts, and generation gaps. The Messiah refers to an agent of God who helps bring about this transformation.

The Jewish tradition teaches that this agent of God (and there will be three or four such agents) will be a human being, with great spiritual leadership qualities similar to Prophets Moses or Mohammed. For Jews, the Messianic hope helped them to survive many years of oppression and evil. For Christian and Muslims the Messianic hope will be the second coming of Jesus and the Muslim Mahdi, leading up to God’s Judgement Day-Qiyamah vindication for righteous believers; and the establishment of God’s kingdom on Earth…

The arrival of the Messianic Age is what’s really important, not the specific personality of the agents who bring it about since they are simply the instruments of God, who ultimately is the real Redeemer.

The Messianic Age is usually seen as the solution to all of humanity’s basic problems. This may be true in the long run but the vast changes the transition to the Messianic Age entails will provide challenges to society for many generations to come.

The majority of Christians, Jews, and Muslims do not believe that all of humanity is moving closer and closer to a catastrophic Judgement Day. The minority who do think that Judgement Day is coming share the usual negative, fear-filled views of most end-times thinkers: Christians, Jews and especially Muslims, who do believe that: “The hour (of Judgement) is near” (Qur’an 54:1); and ˹The time of˺ people’s judgment has drawn near, yet they heedlessly turn away.” (Qur’an 21:1)

Sadly these end-times thinkers always see pre-ordained threats of cataclysmic world wide doom; and not just as Armageddon being a warning of the consequences if we humans do not repent and change our behavior. Armageddon comes from the name in the Hebrew Bible for the hill of Megiddo, which is about 80 miles north of Jerusalem, and is today only an archaeological site. The word Armageddon does not appear in the Hebrew Bible and appears only once in the Greek New Testament, in Revelation 16:16.

Armageddon is a Greek transliteration of the Hebrew har məgiddô (הר מגידו). Har in Hebrew means “a mountain or hill”. Armageddon is usually seen as the final battle or battles between good and evil which lasts for only a short time; compared to the Messianic Peace that follows Armageddon that lasts until large carnivores eat only Plant based meat. Armageddon is a powerful challenge that can be overcome if most people will stop fighting each other and co-operate to reduce climate change.

Also in our own generation we have seen the dramatic fulfillment of Isaiah’s prophecy: “I will bring your offspring from the (Middle) East and gather you from the (European) West. To the North (Russia) I will say ‘give them up’ and to the South (Ethiopia) ‘do not hold them’. Bring my sons from far away, my daughters from the end of the earth.” (43:5-6)


Isn’t it amazing how people adjust to living in a radically new world and forget the past? Indeed, the Prophet Isaiah himself proclaimed God’s message, “Behold, I create a new Heaven and a New Earth, and former things shall not be remembered.” (65:17)

Where does the Mahdi, Prophet Jesus and the last Messiah fit in with all of this? They will still have lots to do when they arrive. Now that a large part of the Jewish people have returned to the Land of Israel, and resurrected a Jewish State, one might think that rebuilding a temple on the site where Solomon originally built one almost 3,000 years ago, would be relatively simple.

And it would, except for the fact that a Muslim Shrine called The Dome of the Rock presently occupies the Jerusalem Temple of Prophet Solomon site. Often erroneously called the Mosque of Omar, it is not a mosque and it was not built by Omar. It was built in 691 by Abd-Al-Malik and it is regarded by Muslims as the third holiest site in the world. Any attempt to replace the Dome of the Rock would provoke a Muslim Holy War of cataclysmic proportions.

There is open land on the Temple Mount, and a small 3D digital broadcast Jewish house of worship like Solomon’s Temple could be rebuilt as a virtual replica like those made by the Factum Foundation, a Madrid-based nonprofit that creates high-resolution digital replicas of the world’s cultural heritage; could be built near the Dome of the Rock provided the Muslims would cooperate.

Most observers agree that anyone who could arrange such Jewish-Muslim cooperation would really be the Messianic Ruler of Peace (Isaiah 9:5) Christian support for such a cooperative venture would also be very important, and anyone who can bring Jews, Christians, and Muslims together in mutual respect and cooperation would surely fulfill the greatest of all Messianic predictions: “They shall beat their swords into plowshares and their spears into pruning knives; nation shall not take up sword against nation, they shall never again teach war.” (Isaiah 2:4)

Indeed, such Jewish/Christian/Muslim cooperation would not be possible without great spiritual leadership in all three communities. Thus, each community could consider its leadership to be the Messiah and this would fulfill the culminating verses of Isaiah’s Messianic prophecy as enlarged upon by Micah (4:3-5),

“They shall beat their swords into plowshares and their spears into pruning knives. Nation shall not take up against nation, they shall never again teach war, but every man shall sit under his grapevine or fig tree with no one to disturb him, for it is the Lord of Hosts who spoke. Though all peoples walk each in the name of its God, we will walk in the name of the Lord our God forever and ever.”

Then, “On that day there will be a highway from Egypt to Assyria. The Assyrians will go to Egypt and the Egyptians to Assyria. The Egyptians and Assyrians will worship together. On that day Israel will join a three-party alliance with Egypt and Assyria, a blessing upon the heart. The LORD of Hosts will bless them saying, “Blessed be Egypt My people, Assyria My handiwork, and Israel My inheritance.”…(Isaiah 19:23-5)

I know that Prophets Jesus and Muhammad warned their own communities about trying to calculate a specific end-time date for Messianic events. In the New Testament when prophet Jesus was asked in private by his disciples, “What will be the sign for your coming (back) and the end of the (present) age?” (Matthew 24:3) Prophet Jesus warned his disciples about all kinds of upheavals and false Messiahs that will come; and then concludes by saying, “But about that day and hour no one knows, not even the angels in heaven, not even the son: only the Father.” (24:36) A similar statement was made by Prophet Muhammad when he was asked, “Tell me about the Hour”. He replied: “The one questioned about it knows no better than the questioner.” (Muslim book 1:1&4)

Yet we should never give up the positive Messianic hope that if each of the three Abrahamic religious communities truly follows the best of its own religious teachings; God has assured us that the Messiah will arrive, and one way or another, God’s Qiyamah-Judgement Day will arrive and God’s Kingdom of worldwide peace and prosperity will be established.


About Rabbi Allen S. Maller

Allen Maller retired in 2006 after 39 years as Rabbi of Temple Akiba in Culver City, Calif. He is the author of an introduction to Jewish mysticism. God. Sex and Kabbalah and editor of the Tikun series of High Holy Day prayerbooks.
View all posts by Rabbi Allen S. Maller →

A monster is awakening as 'super-El Niño' could devastate the planet in 2026

Bathers enjoy a summer day due to the high temperatures at Agua Dulce beach in the Chorrillos district, Lima, Peru, February 25, 2024. REUTERS/Sebastian Castaneda//File Photo

The Conversation 

June 11, 2026

El Niño is a recurring climate event with impacts across the globe. It has three phases: one cold (known as La Niña), one neutral, and one warm (El Niño).

In 2026, spring in the northern hemisphere took place in a neutral phase, which followed a relatively mild La Niña. Short-term forecast models indicate that by mid-year it is very likely that we will enter an El Niño phase. This El Niño could become very intense towards the end of the year, with talk of a “super-El Niño”. But what effects might it have? And has something similar happened in the past?

An anomalous Pacific current

This occasional anomalous warm ocean current in the Pacific was originally noted by 19th-century Peruvian fishermen. They called it El Niño – “the child” in Spanish – because it often arrived around Christmas time.

It occurred when warm waters from the equatorial Pacific replaced the usual cold waters off the coasts of Ecuador (south of the city of Guayaquil), Peru and northern Chile. These waters are normally quite cold due to the Humboldt Current – which flows from south to north along this sections of South America’s coastline – and due to the upwelling of deep cold waters.

The impact of these currents is significant. Take, for instance, the Chilean city of Antofagasta on the Pacific coast, and Rio de Janeiro on the Atlantic coast. They are at almost exactly the same latitude, the Tropic of Capricorn, but their average sea temperatures are very different: around 18°C in Antofagasta and 24°C in Rio de Janeiro.

For Peruvian fishermen, the arrival of the warmer El Niño current meant the disappearance of their most abundant and prized fish, the anchoveta, which thrives in cold, plankton-rich waters.

An ocean and atmospheric phenomenon

In the 1920s, British physicist and climatologist Gilbert Walker made a surprising discovery. While analysing vast amounts of atmospheric pressure data, he realised that when pressure increased in the South American Pacific, it decreased in northern Australia and Indonesia, and vice versa. In other words, these two regions of the planet, thousands of kilometres apart, were connected in terms of atmospheric pressure behaviour. This is what we now call a teleconnection, a long-distance meteorological link.

This coordinated oscillation in atmospheric pressure across the South Pacific was named the Southern Oscillation. But what does El Niño, an ocean current, have to do with the Southern Oscillation, an atmospheric phenomenon?

As well as having a negative impact on the Peruvian fishing industry, El Niño brings rainfall – sometimes torrential – to the arid regions of Peru and northern Chile, home to the world’s driest desert, the Atacama. In 1957-1958, a very intense El Niño caused torrential rainfall in Peru and other countries, and a severe drought in India and Southeast Asia, spurring further research into the phenomenon.

In the 1960s, Norwegian-American meteorologist Jacob Bjerknes found that the warming of the South American Pacific caused by El Niño was linked to the Southern Oscillation, thereby establishing a close connection between the ocean and the atmosphere.

When the South Pacific tropical anticyclone – with its associated trade wind pattern that blows from South America towards Australia and Indonesia – weakens, the waters of the equatorial Pacific warm and begin to shift towards Central America. There they branch off, mainly southwards, along the coasts of parts of Ecuador, Peru and Chile. This is how El Niño is generated.

Bjerknes demonstrated that the atmosphere and the ocean are closely linked, and that what happens in one part of the climate system has an impact elsewhere. Combining the names of the oceanic and atmospheric components gave rise to the El Niño’s official name: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (often abbreviated to ENSO).

The worst El Niño of the 20th century

In 1982–83, the most intense El Niño of the 20th century caused extreme weather events throughout the world, including floods in the American Pacific and in the southern United States, and droughts in north-eastern Brazil and Indonesia. It also caused a very mild winter in the mid-latitudes of Europe, Asia and North America.

From that point onward it was observed that, from time to time, temperatures in the equatorial Pacific also showed a negative anomaly, meaning they were lower than normal. At the same time, the South Pacific high-pressure system strengthened, along with the trade winds. This situation was the opposite of El Niño and was named La Niña.

In short, El Niño brings warm waters and instability, while La Niña brings colder waters than normal and greater stability to Ecuador, Chile and Peru. These phenomena form recurring cycles, though not over fixed periods of time.

The last intense El Niño of the 20th century occurred in 1997–98, causing severe flooding in California. It received widespread media coverage, as the disasters occurred in the US.

How might the next intense El Niño behave?

A super-El Niño would undoubtedly lead, if not in 2026 then certainly in 2027, to a higher global average temperature – a few tenths of a degree above what would be expected given the current rate of global warming. There would also be heavy rainfall in the aforementioned Andean countries, the Argentinian area of Mar del Plata, East Africa, and parts of the southern United States, with severe droughts in Southeast Asia, parts of Australia and northeastern Brazil.

In the Mediterranean basin, the El Niño-La Niña cycle is weaker, largely due to the region’s unique geographical characteristics. However, during a very strong El Niño event it can expect higher than normal temperatures, and perhaps a greater likelihood of extreme rainfall.

In any case, what once appeared to be a phenomenon confined to Peruvian fishing grounds is now known to be a global interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean, with repercussions that can be catastrophic in regions far removed from its source.

Javier Martín Vide, Catedrático de Geografía Física, Universitat de Barcelona

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

'The big one': CA braces for massive earthquake as fault stress hits 1,000-year peak

Photo by USGS on Unsplash

Sarah K. Burris

June 09, 2026  

ALTERNET

California's fault lines are under the most amount of stress than they've experienced in 1,000 years, researchers revealed.

A new study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, Solid Earth, cites concerns that a major earthquake might be on the horizon. There's no real way of knowing when it could happen, the experts warned.

Gizmodo reported the study on Tuesday, including a visualization from the research team of the tectonic plates in California. These plates are constantly pushing, pulling or sliding. The fault lines are where fractures in the plates accumulate pressure, and stress on those faults can build up over time.

Eventually, when the stress exceeds the friction holding the rocks together, an earthquake occurs as the fault ruptures. The more often there are little earthquakes that release the pressure, the less buildup there can be. The longer it has been since the last quake, the more energy is accumulated. All of that built-up stress energy is released as waves or vibrations that travel through the Earth, moving the ground.

“The question of when and how the next major earthquake will occur in this region is one of the most pressing problems in applied geoscience,” said lead author Liliane Burkhard, a geophysicist and planetary geologist at the University of Bern in Switzerland, in a press release. “Our results provide a clearer, physics-based picture of the current stress state of the fault system, and the framework we developed is not just applicable to California, but also for other complex fault junctions worldwide."

The visualization shows the greatest stress on the fault line northeast of Los Angeles. The last major quake was a magnitude 7.9 in Fort Tejon in 1857. It remains one of the largest on record, Gizmodo recounted. Even the infamous 1994 Northridge quake didn't exceed 7.0, and it cost an estimated $49 billion, the Los Angeles Daily News reported in 2014.

Scientists are fearful that the San Andreas Fault System could move "any day now," the report said.

"Their physics-based earthquake cycle model simulates this process in three spatial dimensions over time," said Gizmodo, citing the research. The scientists put geological data of past quakes into their model, which included things like tree-ring anomalies and radiocarbon dating.

"When they ran it, the results indicated that tectonic stresses along the San Andreas and San Jacinto fault zones have reached and, in some cases, exceeded the highest levels of the last millennium," the report said.

There are two main points in the fault system where the San Andreas and San Jacinto are. Burkhard and her co-researchers called it a kind of "earthquake gate."

“The earthquake gate concept captures something important about how fault junctions work,” Burkhard said in the release. “Cajon Pass doesn’t simply block or channel earthquakes: It responds to stress conditions, and those conditions change over centuries.”

When stress builds up on both faults, it's more likely that one'll rupture at a major joint and cross both systems, the study said. That's why they fear it could be more substantial than quakes in past centuries.

Big Oil execs 'doing everything they can' to warn Trump of inflation surge

President Donald Trump holds a Cabinet meeting, Wednesday, April 30, 2025, in the Cabinet Room. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)

Thomas Kika 

June 11, 2026 

ALTERNET


Inflation is primed to become catastrophically worse in one of the most important sectors, and according to The Washington Post, executives are still "doing everything they can" to get that fact across to President Donald Trump before it is too late.

As the Post laid out in a Thursday report, executives in the oil industry are sounding the alarm about prices at the pump shooting up to a degree even higher than they already have, and are working to make sure Trump hears those warnings as he attempts to negotiate a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

"Oil and gas executives have warned the White House that gasoline prices could surge in the coming months as fuel inventories fall to critical lows, complicating the Trump administration’s efforts to contain inflation that has already rattled American consumers," the report detailed.


It continued: "Industry officials say they are doing everything they can to sound an alarm that prices are about to soar as the commercial and government inventories that have mitigated price rises so far are rapidly depleting, according to multiple people familiar with the conversations, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation from the administration. Some inventories could be wiped out within weeks, the executives have warned, coinciding with the peak summer travel season."

While the dwindling shipments out of the Gulf States has so far caused gas prices to increase well over $1 on average across the U.S., if the key shipping route remains closed or unsafe for much longer, it will quickly reach the point where stockpiles begin to reach critical levels. At that point, prices will potentially increase to astronomical levels, and gas rationing might also have to be implemented.


For the time being, some of the sources that the Post spoke to are trying to remain optimistic.

“I have absolutely no doubt the White House — from the president on down — is fully aware of the nearly universal alarm among oil companies and analysts about the direction of travel for oil prices this summer,” Bob McNally, a former energy adviser under George W. Bush and founder of the research firm, Rapidan Energy Group, said in a statement to the outlet.

“We’re sounding the alarm on these inventories going to record lows,” American Petroleum Institute CEO Mike Sommers said during an appearance on a Fox Business show that Trump is known to watch. “We should be concerned about what prices we’re going to see over the next few weeks. We have to solve this problem in the Strait of Hormuz.”

Trump handed a warning shot ahead of World Cup with troubling new poll

Brad Reed, Common Dreams
June 11, 2026 

A woman of the Otomi Indigenous community holds a rubber head depicting U.S. President Donald Trump during anti-World Cup protests calling for social justice in Mexico City, Mexico, June 6, 2026. REUTERS/Quetzalli Nicte-Ha TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

As soccer fans from across the world travel to the United States this month to cheer on their countries’ teams at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, a poll released Wednesday by Data for Progress suggests Americans don’t believe many visitors have warm feelings toward the host country after a year-and-a-half of President Donald Trump’s leadership.

Overall the poll found that 62% of American voters think the country’s reputation has deteriorated under Trump, with just 32% saying it’s gotten better.

Republicans were the only political faction to believe Trump has improved global views of the US, while Independents and Democrats overwhelmingly said the president has made them worse.

The poll also found 52% of US voters believed Trump’s mass deportation policies have hurt the country’s image in the world, with just 34% saying the deportations have helped.

Trump’s immigration policies collided with the World Cup earlier this week when Somali referee Omar Artan, who was selected by the International Federation of Association Football (FIFA) to work at the celebrated event, was barred from entering the US despite having a valid visa.

A Trump administration official claimed Artan had an “association with suspected members of terror organizations,” but provided no evidence for the allegation. US Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) called his treatment by the US “a disgrace.”

Polling data published last year by Pew suggests that Democrats and Independents are more accurately measuring global public sentiment of the US under Trump’s leadership than Republicans.

Specifically, Pew found that net positive perceptions of the US dropped by 10 percentage points or more among residents in a dozen countries between 2024 and 2025, including in key allies such as Canada, Mexico, Germany, and France.

What’s more, Pew found only five countries where the United States’ reputation has improved since Trump’s election: South Africa, India, Israel, Nigeria, and Turkey.

Trump during his second term has taken a number of actions that have sparked anger from foreign governments, including making repeated threats to seize Greenland as a US territory, invading Venezuela and abducting its president, imposing an oil blockade on and threatening to take over Cuba, launching a global trade war, and waging an illegal war of choice on Iran.

Far-right news sites see traffic crash as Trump support collapses: report

Tom Boggioni
June 11, 2026 

RAW STORY



Daily Wire Co-Founder & The Ben Shapiro Show Host Ben Shapiro takes part in the panel 'Future of news: How creators and influencers are reshaping journalism', at the Reuters NEXT conference, in New York City, New York, U.S., December 3, 2025. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

As President Donald Trump's approval ratings hit record lows, far-right media outlets are experiencing a parallel collapse, with major conservative websites posting devastating traffic declines in May.

According to media watchdog Status, The Righting—which monitors website traffic—reported catastrophic numbers across the conservative media landscape. The top 20 right-wing news websites all posted year-over-year declines in May visits, with 90 percent experiencing double-digit drops.

The carnage was severe.

Among the biggest casualties were The Federalist (down 52 percent), Ben Shapiro's Daily Wire (down 47 percent), and The Blaze (down 46 percent). Only two sites managed single-digit declines: the Epoch Times (down 2 percent) and Truth Social (down 9 percent).

The decline wasn't limited to conservative outlets, however. Mainstream news organizations also experienced traffic losses, though notably not as steep as outlets like The Federalist and Daily Wire.

Howard Polskin of The Righting described the trend as accelerating.

"The trend in 2026 has definitely been downward, but it feels like the descent is accelerating despite major events like the war with Iran which should have attracted visits. May's numbers represent the first time this year that every site I track has shown negative year-over-year growth," he wrote.

News of the traffic collapse comes weeks after the Daily Wire announced layoffs.

According to Nashville Scene, "Once seen as a Digital Age successor to Fox News, The Daily Wire — which relocated from Los Angeles to Nashville in 2020 as it neared a market peak — has suffered layoffs and a failed attempt to build a right-wing Hollywood over the past 12 months. Its audience has been in free fall across platforms while competing against independent personalities like Tucker Carlson, Nick Fuentes and former DW principal Candace Owens.“

 

Algeria’s Gas Advantage Is Real. So Are Its Production Problems.

By Natalia Katona - Jun 10, 2026

• Algeria’s 2026 upstream round puts 2.1 billion barrels of oil and 66.5 billion m3 of natural gas on the table just as Europe is desperately locking in non-Russian supply.
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• With Algeria already covering around 18% of EU gas imports, the tender could turn today’s geopolitical premium into longer-term export leverage.
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• The problem is deliverability: current fields are increasingly depleted and domestic demand is growing, leaving less spare gas for pipelines and LNG.
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Algeria’s 2026 hydrocarbon bidding round is arriving at a moment when timing may matter as much as geology. Oil and gas prices have been lifted by the prolonged Middle Eastern crisis, Europe is still trying to hardwire non-Russian gas into its supply system, and former Middle Eastern investors are reassessing where long-cycle upstream capital can be redirected without excessive security risk. For Algiers, this creates a sudden opening to cement its position as Europe’s second-largest natural gas supplier but also exposes the scale of the challenges it must overcome.

In early June, the Algerian National Agency for the Valorisation of Hydrocarbon Resources (ALNAFT) has launched seven onshore conventional oil and gas blocks, with bids and ratification due in November. The offer is estimated to contain around 2.1 billion barrels of oil and 66.5 billion m³ of gas, spread across a mix of existing discoveries and exploration areas. Four of the seven blocks are in the Illizi-Ghadames basin near the Libyan and Tunisian borders, while the rest cover more oil-oriented potential in the Oued Mya and Sahara basins.

That geography matters. Algeria’s 2024 round (the first out of 5 planned) was more weighted toward gas-prone south-western acreage, where resources are attractive, but infrastructure is far less developed, thus exploration and production timelines are longer. The 2026 round shifts attention to the south-east, where the Berkine and Illizi-Ghadames basins are more mature, better connected and easier to bring to market. That makes this tender more commercially relevant in a high-price environment.

The previous round was not a failure, but it was not a roaring success either. Five of six licences were awarded, yet competition was moderate, reflecting the legacy of years in which Algeria’s upstream terms struggled to attract enough foreign capital. The 2014 round had exposed that problem clearly, with investors deterred by high taxes, heavy state control and limited commercial flexibility. The 2019 hydrocarbons law was meant to repair the damage by widening contract options and removing the previous requirement for Sonatrach to hold at least 51% in upstream projects.

The 2024 awards showed that the reset had begun. QatarEnergy entered Algeria alongside TotalEnergies in the Ahara licence, with Total as operator and each company holding 24.5%. Eni and Thailand’s PTTEP took the gas-oriented Reggane 2 project. Chinese companies also deepened their position, with Sinopec taking Hassi Berkane North and pursuing gas exploration at Guern El Guessa, while the lesser known Zhongman Petroleum (China) entered the Zerafa II gas block. Since then, Eni has signed a $1.35 billion production-sharing deal in the Zemoul El Kbar perimeter, expected to produce 415 million barrels of oil equivalent including 9.3 billion m³ of gas, while Saudi Arabia’s Midad Energy signed a $5.4 billion contract for Illizi South near the Libyan border.

This investor mix is important. Eni has been present in Algeria since 1981 and has been producing around 140,000 boe/day, making the country a core part of its portfolio. TotalEnergies is both an upstream investor and a major offtaker of Algerian LNG. QatarEnergy brings LNG expertise and strong financial backing. PTTEP, Sinopec and the Saudi entry shows that Algeria’s upstream opening is no longer just a European story. Talks with Chevron and ExxonMobil, focused largely on shale and unconventional gas potential, are still ongoing, but they point to another possible layer of interest if the commercial terms remain attractive.

The reason this matters is simple: Algeria’s export position is strong, but its production base is not. The country is Africa’s largest gas producer and natural gas accounts for roughly 49% of its hydrocarbon output. Total recoverable resources are estimated at 2.5 - 3.4 trillion m³ of gas and around 10.5 billion barrels of oil. But currently developed fields are mature, domestic demand is rising, and the export surplus is being squeezed. Production increased from around 278 million m³/day in 2021 to 287 million m³/day in 2023, but that 2023 number appear to have marked a peak rather than the start of a sustained growth cycle.

Algeria’s upstream backbone is Hassi R’Mel, the country’s largest gas field and still the main pillar of its production base after 65 years in operation. Having peaked in the mid-1990s, the field is now deeply mature, with its initial 3 trillion m³ resource base depleted to roughly 20% of its former volume (a trend mirrored by Algeria’s giant oil field Hassi Messaoud). Satellite fields and nearby tie-ins have helped slow down the decline, but Sonatrach’s room for manoeuvre is narrowing as the pool of readily available discoveries becomes narrower. Much of today’s pressure is the delayed consequence of Algeria’s 14-year ban on production-sharing and service contracts for natural gas fields between 2005 and 2019, which held back upstream momentum just as incremental supply from the discoveries of the 1980s and 1990s was beginning to fade.

Pipeline gas is still the backbone of Algeria’s export system. Around two-thirds of exports move by pipelines, mainly through the TransMed route via Tunisia and Sicily into Italy, and the Medgaz subsea link directly to Almeria in Spain. TransMed has capacity of about 32–35 billion m³/year and carried roughly 21 billion m³ in recent years. Medgaz can move around 10–10.5 billion m³/year. The third older Morocco-Spain route has been shut since 2021 after Algiers declined to renew the transit agreement amid political tensions with Rabat.

Italy is now Algeria’s central gas customer, taking roughly 20–23 billion m³/year and relying on Algerian supply for about 30% of its gas needs. Spain is more complicated politically but remains structurally important, with Algeria covering roughly 25% of its gas imports. Talks that began in March 2026 to expand Medgaz by up to 1 billion m³/year show that the appetite for Algerian pipeline gas is still there. The constraint is not demand, but deliverability.

LNG tells the same story with more volatility. Algeria has two LNG export hubs: Arzew/Bethioua in the west, with about 20.8 million t/year of liquefaction capacity, and Skikda in the east, operating at around 4.5 million t/year. LNG exports surged after Europe’s break with Russian gas, rising from an average of around 900 kt/month of liquefied gas to a record 1.3 million kt in September 2023, a 60% year on year jump. France, Italy and Spain were the main European buyers, while Turkey took almost a quarter of shipments. By 2025, however, Algerian exports to Europe had slipped to around 9.5 million tonnes of LNG a year, or about 6% of the continent’s LNG imports, down roughly 2 million tonnes year-on-year. Adding the pipeline exports, by 2025 Algeria accounted for around 18% of EU natural gas imports, second only to Norway and ahead of Russia. That gives Algiers strategic leverage, especially with Italy and Spain. But it also raises the stakes: Europe needs Algeria to remain reliable, while Algeria needs new upstream investment to keep up the production.

However, the recent issue has become Algeria’s growing domestic demand. Algeria consumed around 57 billion m³/year of gas in 2025, absorbing more than half of the national output. That means every additional cubic metre must be fought over by power demand, industrial consumption, pipeline contracts and LNG cargoes. For a country where hydrocarbons account for around 10–12% of GDP and more than 90% of export revenues, the shrinking export cushion is not just an energy issue, but also a fiscal and external-balance problem

This is why the 2026 round matters more than the acreage map suggests. Oil remains useful, but Algeria’s OPEC+ membership puts a cap on crude investment for the upcoming years. Gas is the strategic prize. It can strengthen Algeria’s role in Europe’s supply security, preserve market share in Italy and Spain, and give Sonatrach more optionality through LNG. Yet none of that is possible without new field development and infrastructure investment in underdeveloped gas provinces.

Algeria has a rare opening. Europe wants nearby gas, investors want alternatives to the Gulf’s security risk, and the country has made its upstream terms more flexible than they were a decade ago. But the window is not permanent. Mature fields, rising domestic demand and infrastructure gaps will steadily erode export capacity unless new projects move quickly. If the 2026 bidding round brings in serious capital, Algeria can turn today’s geopolitical sudden chance into a longer-term gas advantage. If it disappoints, the country risks becoming a supplier that Europe needs badly, but one with too little spare gas to fully benefit from.

By Natalia Katona for Oilprice.com

After US Airstrikes, Iran Declares Hormuz "Closed" to All Vessel Traffic

Courtesy USN

Published Jun 10, 2026 9:36 PM by The Maritime Executive

Oil futures ticked up Thursday morning as Iran and the United States traded strikes and counterstrikes, with renewed threats of violence prompting energy traders to consider timing predictions for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. 

The escalation cycle began Monday when an Iranian drone downed a U.S. Army helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing the U.S. Navy to launch an inventive and successful rescue operation. Both helicopter pilots survived and were delivered to shore in stable condition.

Following the rescue, the White House ordered "proportionate" counterstrikes targeting Iranian military sites along the perimeter of the strait, including radar installations and air defense sites. (Iran also claims that U.S. fighters hit water storage tanks near the city of Sirik.)

On Wednesday, at the request of President Donald Trump, U.S. forces launched another wave of airstrikes across Iran, hoping to convince the regime in Tehran to agree to U.S. proposals for a long-term ceasefire agreement. U.S. officials assert that no civilian infrastructure was hit. Iran said that it retaliated with ballistic missile counterstrikes targeting U.S. installations in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, including attempted attacks on U.S. 5th Fleet headquarters and Muwaffaq Salti Air Base; the effects (if any) have not been reported, but bystanders on social media recorded extended air defense engagements over these locations. 

In response to the renewed exchange of fire, Iran has changed its official view of the Strait of Hormuz's status. Previously, in Iran's view, the waterway was "completely open" under Iranian management via the "Tehran Tollbooth" permission system. Effective Thursday, it is now "closed effective immediately for the passage of all types of vessels, including oil tankers and commercial ships," and any vessel attempting to make the transit will be attacked, reported government-affiliated outlet Tasnim. While the probability of this threat turning into a kinetic strike is uncertain, it suggests an Iranian attempt to clamp down on a steady leak of U.S.-guided merchant vessel traffic, which has been gradually increasing for the past week. 

"This week has brought wider attacks and further deterioration where the ceasefire is more like a lesser-fire," commented UN Secretary-General António Guterres. "We should not minimize the risks of lesser fire becoming full fire. All parties must work towards a diplomatic settlement. No more attacks. No more excuses."

Traders Are Shorting Oil As If The Hormuz Crisis Is Over

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jun 10, 2026

• Oil traders are increasingly betting on lower prices, with short positions in Brent crude tripling since late March despite the loss of roughly 13 million bpd of supply from the Middle East.
• 
  
• Physical market fundamentals are tightening rapidly, as global inventories have fallen by about 250 million barrels and key storage hubs like Cushing are approaching critically low levels.
• 
  
• Analysts warn the market may be underestimating supply risks, with even a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz unlikely to provide immediate relief.

In yet another sign that the paper oil market may be too complacent about the magnitude of the supply disruption in the Middle East, trades have been boosting their short positions in oil futures for most of the past two months.

Since the beginning of April, portfolio managers have been increasingly betting that oil prices would fall, according to the latest available commitment of traders (COT) data from exchanges as of June 2.

Shorts on Brent Crude tripled between the end of March and the beginning of June, per the data compiled by energy analyst John Kemp.

As of June 2, the short positions in Brent Crude had jumped to their highest level since January, when the U.S. captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and the market expected increased supply from Venezuela in the coming months.

The surge in short positions and the weeks-long selloff of longs in the past eight weeks suggest traders are betting that supply will be restored soon.

The paper market plays on hopes, expectations, sentiments, and fears, and the sum of all these right now appears to be that the hedge fund and portfolio manager community is reluctant to bet on a summer of actual physical supply shortages.

But the paper market may soon face the reality of crumbling global inventories, including in the United States, where stocks at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI Crude, are just a few weeks away from dropping to minimum operational levels.

Too much noise about the ceasefire, which is being tested almost daily with one strike or a retaliatory hit after another, doesn’t help the paper market that may have become too detached from the magnitude of the supply loss.

Traders react to every signal of ‘imminent deal’ with selloffs, only to start buying oil futures again when Israeli strikes in Lebanon, U.S. ‘self-defense’ strikes on Iran, or Iranian hits at regional infrastructure threaten to unravel the fragile ceasefire.

All the while, paper market participants continue to hope for an imminent resolution and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz that would flood the market with oil. And that’s been their hope for three and a half months now.

The thing is, even a full reopening of the Strait would not lead to immediate relief for buyers. First, ship owners and operators will need to have guarantees that they wouldn’t be caught off-guard with stranded tankers again. Then, the oil cargoes will need weeks to reach buyers—weeks that the market may not have amid peak summer demand season.

The world has lost about 13 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil supply, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its market report for May.

“Mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace,” the IEA said, adding that observed global inventories, including oil on water, were drawn down by 250 million barrels over March and April, or by 4 million bpd.

Sooner rather than later, oil on water volumes and onshore inventories will be depleted, leaving demand destruction the only buffer to cap oil price spikes.

Moreover, the extreme price volatility and the noise about a deal coming any day now are sidelining part of the trader community.

“Participants continue to sit on the sidelines, given the market's fluidity, uncertainty, and headline-driven nature,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a note on Wednesday.

“This is reflected in the aggregate open interest in ICE Brent, which has continued to trend lower and stands at its lowest level since August 2025.”

Many traders have been shorting oil since April in the hope that the ceasefire and the negotiations would yield a peace deal before the world runs out of buffers to offset most of the supply disruption.

“The buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down, and the ability for the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished today versus where we started and over the next few weeks,” Chevron’s CEO Mike Wirth said at the Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference at the end of May.

“We're likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices, and there's more upward pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July.”

According to the Wednesday note of ING’s strategists, “With no imminent deal in sight and with the global oil market tightening significantly every day, we see upside to prices, particularly if these disruptions linger into the third quarter, a period of seasonally stronger oil demand.”

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

U.S. Confirms Attack That Left Three Missing from Product Tanker off Oman

U.S. confirmed it struck a tanker with the incident reportedly leaving three Indian seafarers missing (Centcom)

Published Jun 10, 2026 1:09 PM by The Maritime Executive

A Palau-flagged product tanker issued a distress call early on Wednesday morning, June 10, in a position approximately 20 nautical miles off Sohar, Oman. U.S. Central Command later issued a statement saying that for the second consecutive day, U.S. forces disabled another vessel that violated the ongoing blockade by attempting to transport oil from Iran.

Centcom said in its statement that a U.S. aircraft fired precision munitions into the tanker’s engine room after the crew repeatedly failed to comply with directions from American forces.

The reports vary, with the major security firms reporting two crewmembers were missing and one was injured. In an unconfirmed statement from a firm claiming to represent the tanker’s managers, they said three seafarers had lost their lives, while India’s Ministry of External Affairs is reporting that three Indian seafarers are missing and that 21 were rescued.

The first attack by U.S. forces likely to have killed civilian seafarers, is drawing wide condemnation. India’s Ministry issued a statement condemning the attack while calling it “deeply worrisome” and emphasizing that targeting of commercial shipping and civilian infrastructure in the region must end, and that free and unimpeded navigation must be restored at the earliest. It writes that India, “reiterates our call for immediate de-escalation of tensions, and the conclusion of ongoing negotiations for a diplomatic solution so that peace and stability can return to the region.“

International Maritime Organization Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez also issued a statement “expressing deep concern and strong condemnation of the attack.” He said, “All actions affecting international shipping must fully respect international law and the safety of life at sea. The protection of seafarers is a shared responsibility that must remain paramount.”

 

 

The product tanker Settebello (47,198 dwt) radioed that a strike had severely damaged the engine room, causing massive fire and smoke onboard. The Oman Navy was assisting with the evacuation of the crew, while Indian authorities said they were monitoring the situation closely. 

In the past, the Settebello has been linked to the Iranian oil trade. The purported representatives are asserting the vessel was drifting off the coast of Oman, waiting for further orders and not engaged in any cargo operations. Some reports, however, indicate the vessel was partially laden, while Centcom asserts the tanker was attempting to transport oil from Iran.
 
The latest strike comes as tensions are running high in the region after a series of attacks and retaliations. The U.S. on Monday struck another false-flag tanker, the Marivex, which it asserted had ignored multiple warnings. U.S. Central Command reported that eight non-compliant vessels had been disabled, while 134 ships that complied had been redirected, and 42 vessels supporting humanitarian aid had been allowed to pass since initiating the blockade on April 13.

Donald Trump angrily said today that Iran would “have to pay” after having already ordered retaliatory strikes after a U.S. helicopter was shot down on Tuesday. Iran responded by launching missiles it said were targeting U.S. bases across the region. Trump also asserted the effectiveness of the U.S. naval blockade, calling it “the most successful blockade in the history of naval warfare.” Trump wrote that “nothing gets through unless we want it to. It is a steel wall! Iran is doing ZERO business.”

The IMO said it has verified 43 attacks on international shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war. It set the confirmed toll at 11 seafarer fatalities. Dominguez said "This is simply unacceptable."

Trump Say US Conducted Mission to Brings Ships Out of Persian Gulf

Vessels are making the transit through Hormuz as the U.S. and Iran continue to clash (USN file photo)

Published Jun 10, 2026 12:32 PM by The Maritime Executive

With tensions running high in the region and increased rhetoric coming from both the United States and Iran, it is unclear when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen to normal traffic.

Donald Trump seems to think this may occur within days. Noises from the Iranian negotiating team are also sounding more optimistic. But we have been there before, with no good result; the loss of a U.S. Apache helicopter this week and U.S. counterattacks, once again, have provided reason for further delays. In any case, there are plenty of hardliners who would seek to sabotage any agreement, and others who have critical requirements that might not be addressed if a settlement does not re-establish free and innocent passage, as has existed since the IMO Traffic Separation Scheme was agreed upon in 1968, until Iran began blocking traffic in March this year. The course of events is very difficult to predict with any confidence.

But in recent weeks, it has become clear that ships are already traveling through the Strait, and that exfiltrations are increasing. This is despite the Iranian imposition of restrictions on transits, applied through its Persian Gulf Regulatory Authority (PGRA), and the U.S. blockade on Iranian ships and ports. Ship owners inevitably are being discreet and are not advertising the names of their breakout ships.

Donald Trump announced in a social media posting on Wednesday afternoon, June 10, that he had ordered the U.S. to execute a secret mission to support oil tankers and other commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. "Today, I am pleased to announce that this effort has resulted in more than 100 million barrels of oil making its way through the Strait, and into the open market. More than 200 commercial ships have safely traveled through the Strait. This wildly successful effort is because the United States of America controls the Strait of Hormuz — not Iran."

Vessels getting through the Strait are using one of two routes:

The Larak Island route, used by those who are cleared for transit by the PGRA, and who plot a course around Larak Island on the PGRA-approved route. Some of these ships will have paid for the privilege, thereby contravening U.S. sanctions on the PGRA. Others may have been on the cleared list as a consequence of agreements made politically with the Iranians, without having had to pay a fee.

The Oman Coastal route, used by others who leave the Gulf, hugging the Omani Musandam coast to lessen the risk of interdiction, and do so either having liaised with U.S. naval authorities to receive guidance on safe routing, or who take the route independently, trusting their own judgement of the prevailing risk. In both cases, it would be foolhardy to attempt such a transit without advising the Omani naval authorities responsible for controlling traffic in the Omani segment of the Strait, but some are taking this route anyway. About 15 vessels per day are using this route, and more are being encouraged to do so.

 

Limit of Omani territorial waters (yellow), the PGSA Larak Island route (pink) and the Omani Coastal route (green) (Google Earth/CJRC)

 

Whereas the Iranians will attempt to interdict any vessel not complying with their PGRA control regime, U.S. naval authorities are only interested in Iranian ships, those seeking to dock at Iranian ports, or anyone who breaches OFAC sanctions by transacting with the PGRA and handing over any toll fee. Hence, foreign-flagged ships using the Larak Island route may not be contravening the U.S. naval blockade, provided they are neither visiting Iranian ports nor paying the PGRA any money.

So whether using the Larak Island or the Omani Coastal route, ships are getting out, and the numbers are rising.

Lloyds List identified 17 specialist vehicle carrier vessels that became trapped inside the Gulf at the beginning of the war. The first, Marshall Island-flagged Jiuyang Bonanza (IMO 9330616), left using the Larak Island route on April 11, broadcasting on AIS that it had a Chinese crew. Of the remaining 16, two Chinese Anji Cosco ships, An Ji 23 (IMO 9776858) and Anji Phoenix (IMO 9190858), are now in Singapore, and a third, Xiang Jiang Kou  (IMO 9985394), is in Brisbane. Hence, all the Chinese vessels carrying SAIC vehicles have now left, using the Larak Island route. 

Five Japanese-interest vehicle carriers are still stuck in the Gulf - Antares Leader (IMO 9539169), Capetown Highway (IMO 9565558), Dream Diamond (IMO 9325788), Jana Murni (IMO 9206023, Taurus Leader (IMO 9700550) - while Lotus Leader (IMO 9202883) and Positive Pioneer (IMO 9304514) for some reason are now supposedly loitering in the Gulf of Guinea, and Grand Diamond (IMO 9303223) is in Mundra, India. Of the remaining four vessels on the original Lloyds List, European and Korean interests both have one ship still stuck in the Gulf, and one that has escaped. In total, therefore, of the original 17 ships stuck inside the Gulf, seven remain, and ten have escaped, including all four Chinese-interest ships.

On the LNG tanker front, The Maritime Executive knows of six tankers which have loaded Emirati LNG at Das Island since February 28 and which are now outside the Gulf, with four - Marigold (IMO 9230062), Umm al Ashtan (IMO 9074652), Mraweh (IMO 9074638) and Mubaraz (IMO 9074626) having delivered to terminals in Japan, India and China in the last three weeks. Six tankers similarly have loaded at Qatar’s Ras Lafan LNG terminal, with four – Al Kharaitiyat (IMO 9397327), Mihzem (IMO 9986635), Fuwairit (IMO 9256200), and Al Rayyan (IMO 9086734) delivering to LNG import terminals in Pakistan, and a fifth - Al Daayen (IMO 9325702) – is due in China on July 6.

All these LNG tankers have made passage through the Strait since both the Iranian and U.S. restrictions have been imposed. Chinese vessels and those delivering LNG to Pakistan are likely to have used the Larak Island route, with politically negotiated permission, rather than having paid a fee. On balance, the Emirati LNG shipments are likely to have taken the Oman Coastal route, given relations between Iran and the UAE. The substantial number of Japanese ships still stuck in the Gulf suggests that they were neither willing to brave the Oman Coastal route, nor to pay the PGRA for the privilege of departing. 

U.S. naval authorities are likely to have a much longer and more accurate list, with a better understanding of who may have committed breaches. No doubt OFAC will be taking action against anyone known to be on the naughty list. A vessel that appears to have been in breach was the unladen, false-flagged tanker Marivex (IMO 9464156), which was disabled with a shot into the engine room off Masirah on June 8. The Palau-flagged product tanker Settebello (IMO 9162916), which was struck early on June 10 off Sohar, may also have been in breach.

In the meantime, IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez issued a statement on June 9, urging ship owners to give the highest priority to the safety and lives of seafarers, saying that “they must not be exposed to conditions where the risks are known, significant, and clearly beyond mitigation.” His statement is no doubt prompted by concerns that this is precisely what is happening.

Markets Expect Oil Shortage if Hormuz Stays Shut, Oversupply Once it Opens

iStock / SHansche

Published Jun 9, 2026 7:10 PM by The Maritime Executive

The oil market is telling two distinct stories, and future pricing depends upon which one prevails. In the short run, energy markets are leaning hard on drawdowns, run cuts, refined product inventories and demand destruction in order to keep prices in check. If the situation continues unchanged, falling inventories could drive prices skyward by midsummer. On the other hand, the market faces an oversupply situation as soon as the Strait of Hormuz reopens and a flood of Mideast oil comes back on the market, according to Fitch Ratings - and the financial markets are pricing in this scenario. As ever, the outcome depends upon the timing of a ceasefire deal between the U.S. and Iran, and on how much oil can slip through the blockades in the meantime.

Given the current shutdown in the strait, the inventory picture is not favorable for low pricing. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced Tuesday that OECD oil inventories are on track to reach their lowest level since recordkeeping began in 2023, and will keep dropping until December even in the event of a Hormuz restart. 

"Under our assumptions, we expect global oil inventories will fall by an average of 6.3 million b/d in 2Q26 and by 7.6 million b/d in 3Q26," EIA wrote, adding that this will likely drive Brent back up above $100 per barrel over the summer. The high price of crude and expanding government interventions are also driving down demand, and EIA forecasts that the world will consume about 1.1 million barrels per day less than it did in 2025 - a rare decline not seen since the pandemic (and a meaningful contribution to global CO2 emissions reduction). 

The real question for market pricing, according to Kpler research director Matt Smith, is when the U.S. will cease exporting crude and refined products abroad. With China's refining sector implementing steep run cuts and ceasing product exports, undersupplied fuel markets have come to the U.S. Gulf Coast to source export cargoes instead. Asian refiners have come looking for crude, too. "The US is putting all these barrels onto the market, but US inventories are getting depleted," said Smith in a recent interview. "When the US stops sending those barrels out, that's when kind of the music stops."

Smith notes that the White House has had excellent results in talking down the price of oil futures with peace-deal announcements, making analysts who previously forecast $110+ crude decide to go quiet for reputational reasons - but on a rational basis, he sees skyrocketing prices as more likely than ever. "I don't know who needs to take up this mantle of calling for $200 oil. I'll pick it up, you know, I'll take an additional hit of being wrong," Smith said. 

The most dire forecasts depend upon the strait remaining closed; once it opens, the situation may change fast. According to Fitch Ratings, oil prices will plummet as soon as the strait is cleared because the world will be structurally oversupplied within weeks. "We project the market to return to oversupply from September 2026 due to a lack of material damage to the regional oil infrastructure, rapid recovery in Middle East production, strong non-OPEC supply growth and potential OPEC output increases beyond pre-conflict quotas," predicted Fitch. The ratings agency predicts a full-year average price for Brent of $87 per barrel, below current levels. 

If the strait doesn't reopen by July or August, that will be a decisive point, multiple analysts suggest. "The first 100 days of the Hormuz crisis proved oil markets can adapt to even the direst disruption of supply. The next 100 days may tell us how markets respond when they reach the limits of adaptation," commented Karim Fawaz, Director of the Energy Advisory group at S&P Global.