EU clash between worker shortages, anti-immigrant politics

Anchal Vohra in Brussels

DW

11/21/2024

As aging populations exacerbate worker shortages, European countries are quietly luring skilled foreign workers — even as pressure from the far right to keep immigration down has increased.

Italy is facing a major nursing shortage

Matteo Bazzi/REUTERS


With immigration the top political issue in Europe, particularly with the surge of the far right, pressure on governments to keep the numbers down has increased.

And yet several countries, even those with a publicly anti-immigrant stance, are luring foreign workers to fill a large labor void and keep the economies in an aging continent running.

The European Union has identified 42 occupations that face labor shortages and has come up with an action plan to attract foreign workers. Nearly two-thirds of small and medium-sized businesses in the bloc say they cannot find the talent they need.

On the face of it, many European leaders, especially those on the far right, have advocated deals with third countries to curb the entry of immigrants or repatriate them elsewhere. And yet, amid much less fanfare, signs of a policy shift acknowledging the need for immigrants have come to light.
Italy to recruit Indian nurses

Italy's far-right government, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, has decided to recruit hundreds of thousands of foreign workers desperately needed to plug the gaping shortages.

"For the three-year period [from] 2023-2025, the government expects a total of 452,000 entries,'' the Italian government said last year, also admitting it is much less than the "detected need of 833,000'' workers over that period of time.

According to the IDOS Study and Research Center, Italy needs 280,000 foreign workers annually until 2050 to meet the labor shortfall in various sectors such as agriculture, tourism and health care — about half the number of asylum applications filed last year. The country faces labor shortages in 37 occupations, with nurses and other health care professionals in the most demand.

The government recently announced it will recruit 10,000 nurses from India to help make up a shortage that is three times that much. Italian Health Minister Orazio Schillaci said in October that India has an oversupply of nurses. "There are 3.3 million nurses" in India, he said. "We want to bring here about 10,000."

Italy sends migrants to Albania under new asylum scheme  02:26

Schillaci said the Indian nurses are professionally capable and will be recruited directly by Italian regions and placed wherever needed, once their ability to speak in Italian has been determined.

Maurizio Ambrosini, a professor of sociology and a migration expert at the University of Milan, told DW that Meloni's government has been compelled to change policy by employers who are in desperate need of workers.

"Italian employers were very silent on the migration debate for years. I suppose they didn't want a battle with the right-wing parties,'' he said over the phone. "But no longer."

Many, even in her own coalition, see the policy as a strong reversal from Meloni, who once referred to pro-immigration policies as part of a left-wing conspiracy to “replace Italians with immigrants."

"I hoped now that we finally have a right-wing government the situation would change, but the right is getting worse than the left,'' said Attilio Lucia, a member of the far-right League party and the deputy mayor of Lampedusa, a tiny island that is the arriving port for many migrants.

Netherlands wants to retain 'knowledge migrants'

Businesses may have also affected the thinking in the new Dutch government led by far-right lawmaker Geert Wilders' Freedom Party.

ASML, the country's largest company that manufactures semiconductor equipment, has said its success depends on talented people, wherever they come from. The company has suggested that inbound migration must not be restricted. Nearly 40% of the company's employees are foreign workers.

"We have built our company with more than 100 nationalities," Christophe Fouquet, ASML's CEO, said at the Bloomberg Tech Summit in London last month. "Bringing talent from everywhere has been an absolute condition for success, and this has to continue."

Netherlands offers tax break scheme for skilled migrants  02:34

The Netherlands has sought an exemption or an "opt-out'' from the EU asylum system, which treats asylum as "a fundamental right and an international obligation for countries." Media reports have suggested that high anti-immigrant rhetoric perpetuated by the far right has made skilled workers feel less welcome in the country.

But even the far-right political groups must grapple with the reality of just how much the companies need foreign workers to stay competitive.

The Netherlands has only marginally reduced the tax incentive for foreign workers — from 30% to just 27%. This tax break has been among the most attractive features for talented youth to move to the country, or "knowledge migrants" as the government calls them.

"This is a relatively small change in the total net income of highly skilled foreign workers," said Lisa Timm, a researcher on migration at the University of Amsterdam, "I think it will have a negligible effect on migrant arrivals."

Germany introduces 'Opportunity Card'

Germany is on course to issue 200,000 visas to skilled workers this year, a 10% increase from 2023. This is due to an "Opportunity Card" scheme, residence permits that allow workers from countries outside the EU to come to Germany and seek employment, introduced in June.

On a recent visit to India, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany is "open for skilled workers" and agreed to smooth out bureaucratic hurdles and increase visas for Indians from 20,000 to 90,000 annually.

German Labor Minister Hubertus Heil (left) met with students in Delhi earlier this yearImage: DW

Germany needs around 400,000 new skilled employees a year to cover worker shortages, especially in the fields of engineering, IT and health care, and sees a potential workforce in trained Indians.

On the other hand, the rise of the far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) in regional elections and a knife attack in the western German town of Solingen over the summer compelled Scholz to sign off on internal border checks in the EU "to curb migration."

Speaking on the issue in July, Scholz said irregular migration to Germany must "come down" but also stressed the country's need for skilled foreigners.
A public and a silent policy

Nearly all European countries face the same problem — labor shortages in an aging population. Despite an influx of immigrants, they don't want to appear to be allowing for migrant arrivals without visas.

Ambrosini, the University of Milan professor, said European countries are having trouble reconciling two different immigration policies, one for public consumption that calls for "border enforcement agreements with transit countries like Tunisia, or deportation to external facilities like Italy's Albania agreement.

"On the other hand, it is becoming clearer that they need workers, and they are coming up with new policies to attract a workforce that is not only skilled but also seasonal workers," he said. "This second policy is kept a bit hidden, not too much publicized, and can be visible only to the employer associations."

In the end, it's about the governments being able to say they are in control of who is coming in and who gets to stay, said Ambrosini. But that's a myth, at least regarding blue-collar jobs, since employers receive references from those already in Europe for whom to hire.

"How will the employer know who to get from Peru, for instance?"

Edited by: Davis VanOpdorp

Anchal Vohra Brussels-based European correspondent

G20

Biden becomes first US president to visit Amazon as Trump signals climate policy shift


Joe Biden became the first US president to visit the Amazon on Sunday, flying over drought-hit regions and fire-damaged rainforests, in a bid to highlight climate change's toll on the vital ecosystem. His visit to Latin America comes as the incoming Trump administration signals reduced US climate commitments.


Issued on: 18/11/2024 
By: NEWS WIRES
Video by: FRANCE 24

00:54

US President Joe Biden walks with Henrique Pereira, Director of the National Institute for Research in the Amazon, as he tours the Museu da Amazonia in Manaus, Brazil on November 17, 2024. © Leah Millis, Reuters




Joe Biden toured the drought-shrunken waters of the Amazon River’s greatest tributary Sunday as the first sitting American president to set foot in the legendary rainforest, while the incoming Trump administration seems poised to scale back the US commitment to combating climate change.

The massive Amazon region, which is about the size of Australia, stores huge amounts of the world’s carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that drives climate change when it's released into the atmosphere. But development is rapidly depleting the world's largest tropical rainforest, and rivers are drying up.

Flying over a stretch of the Amazon in a helicopter, Biden saw severe erosion, ships grounded in the Negro River tributary, and fire damage. He also passed over a wildlife refuge and the expansive waters where the Negro River joins the Amazon. He was joined by Carlos Nobre, a Nobel Prize-winning scientist and expert on how climate change is harming the Amazon.

Biden met indigenous leaders — introducing his daughter and granddaughter to them — and visited a museum at the gateway to the Amazon as he looks to highlight his commitment to the preservation of the region. Three indigenous women shook maracas as part of a welcoming ceremony.

Read more  Macron and Lula announce €1 billion investment plan for the Amazon

“I’m proud to become the first sitting president to visit the Amazon,” Biden said before he signing a US proclamation designating Nov. 17 as International Conservation Day.

His administration announced plans last year for a $500 million contribution to the Amazon Fund, the most significant international cooperation effort to preserve the rainforest, primarily financed by Norway.

So far, the US government said it has provided $50 million, and the White House announced Sunday an additional $50 million contribution to the fund.

“It’s significant for a sitting president to visit the Amazon. ... This shows a personal commitment from the president,” said Suely Araújo, former head of the Brazilian environmental protection agency and public policy coordinator with the nonprofit Climate Observatory. “That said, we can’t expect concrete results from this visit."

She doubts that a “single penny” will go to the Amazon Fund once Donald Trump is back in the White House.

The incoming Trump administration is highly unlikely to prioritize the Amazon or anything related to climate change. The Republican president-elect already said he would again pull out of the Paris agreement, a global pact forged to avert the threat of catastrophic climate change, after Biden recommitted to the accord.

Deforestation fell in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest by 30.6 percent in the year-to-year period beginning in August 2023, according to the National Institute for Space Research (INPE). © Mauro Pimentel, AFP

Trump has cast climate change as a “hoax” and said he will eliminate energy efficiency regulations by the Biden administration.

Still, the Biden White House on Sunday announced a series of new efforts aimed at bolstering the Amazon and stemming the impact of climate change.

Among the actions is the launch of a finance coalition that looks to spur at least $10 billion in public and private investment for land restoration and eco-friendly economic projects by 2030, and a $37.5 million loan to an organization to support the large-scale planting of native tree species on degraded grasslands in Brazil.

Biden also plans to highlight that the US is on track to reach $11 billion in spending on international climate financing in 2024, a sixfold increase from when he started his term.

The Amazon is home to Indigenous communities and 10% of Earth’s biodiversity. It also regulates moisture across South America. About two-thirds of the Amazon lies within Brazil, and scientists say its devastation poses a catastrophic threat to the planet.

The forest has been suffering two years of historic drought that have dried up waterways, isolated thousands of riverine communities and hindered riverine dwellers’ ability to fish. It's also made way for wildfires that have burned an area larger than Switzerland and choked cities near and far with smoke.

When Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took office last year, he signaled a shift in environmental policy from his predecessor, far-right Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro prioritised agribusiness expansion over forest protection and weakened environmental agencies, prompting deforestation to surge to a 15-year high.

Lula has pledged “zero deforestation” by 2030, though his term runs through the end of 2026. Forest loss in Brazil’s Amazon dropped by 30.6% in the 12 months through July from a year earlier, bringing deforestation to its lowest level in nine years, according to official data released last week.

In that 12-month span, the Amazon lost 6,288 square kilometers (2,428 square miles), roughly the size of the US state of Delaware. But that data fails to capture the surge of destruction this year, which will only be included in next year’s reading.

Despite the success in curbing Amazon deforestation, Lula’s government has been criticized by environmentalists for backing projects that could harm the region, such as paving a highway that cuts from an old-growth area and could encourage logging, oil drilling near the mouth of the Amazon River and building a railway to transport soy to Amazonian ports.

While Biden is the first sitting president in the Amazon, former President Theodore Roosevelt traveled to the region with the help of the American Museum of Natural History following his 1912 loss to Woodrow Wilson. Roosevelt, joined by his son and naturalists, traversed roughly 15,000 miles, when the former president fell ill with malaria and suffered a serious leg infection after a boat accident.

Biden is making the Amazon visit as part of a six-day trip to South America, the first to the continent of his presidency. He traveled from Lima, Peru, where he took part in the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit and met with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

After his stop in Manaus, he was heading to Rio de Janeiro for this year's Group of 20 leaders summit.

(AP)

 

Keeping the lights on and the pantry stocked: Ensuring water for energy and food production

Stanford University

A new study, focused on a remote region of the Peruvian Andes where the waters of the Amazon originate, carries lessons for hydropower operators and farming communities worldwide: collaborating on sustainable land management is the best decision they can make for the long-term viability of their businesses and livelihoods. It also opens opportunities for restoration of degraded ecosystems. Research from the Stanford-based Natural Capital Project (NatCap) in Communications - Earth & the Environment integrates hydropower operations with watershed processes and climate projections in a novel, high-resolution modeling approach for the Huallaga River Basin, upstream of the Chaglla Dam. It provides a detailed picture of how climate change will increase water shortages, and points to investments in upstream reforestation and sustainable irrigation as the most effective paths toward meeting these challenges.

“This study is exciting because this is the first time climate change, hydropower, and land management practices have been put together in a robust decision-making approach,” said Zhaowei Ding, a postdoctoral researcher at NatCap and lead author on the paper. “In this region, people had looked at the relationship between hydropower and deforestation, or hydropower and food, but they were not connected. Now, we can show where water goes in the basin and we can optimize our management suggestions.”  

Climate-induced water shortages turn up the pressure

Despite serious social and environmental impacts, hydropower remains an important source of low-carbon energy in many parts of the world, including Latin America and Asia. However, hydropower dams cannot operate below a certain threshold of water flow. Reduced rainfall resulting from climate change will exacerbate the problem. So too will less rain during the growing season. Farmers upstream of hydropower plants will increasingly turn to irrigation to ensure their livelihoods, reducing the water available downstream. These changes will likely exacerbate conflict between the energy and agricultural sectors.

Waldo Lavado, a co-author and researcher at the National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru, noted that water resources in the Peruvian Andean-Amazonian basin are quite vulnerable to changes in land use and to climate change. “For the first time, this research scientifically documents possible projections of these changes – the first step to understanding the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus in Peruvian basins with increasingly marked human influences.”

The researchers analyzed thousands of possible land and water use scenarios and found no win-win solutions for resolving tensions between water, energy, food, and ecosystems. Unplanned expansion of irrigation in this region could strongly impede the hydropower plant’s ability to function in the dry season, when hydropower is most valuable for the Peruvian power grid. At the same time, thousands of small-scale producers have long relied on rainfed agriculture for their food security and livelihoods, and for contributing to the national market. In this context, irrigation helps farmers mitigate increasing uncertainty. 

Nature offers damage control 

Nonetheless, the study found that impacts to both the energy and food sectors could be lessened using nature-based approaches. Investments in upstream reforestation and the creation of protected areas, by compensating farmers to plant trees instead of crops, would increase water availability for downstream hydropower by reducing irrigation needs. Forests also help retain soil, so this would lessen erosion and sedimentation, which impede dam operations. The modeling helped identify low-yield areas where farms use a lot of water for irrigation but aren’t producing similarly large crops – potentially prime locations for making this switch. This approach could be combined with investments in irrigation efficiency, like drip irrigation systems, in remaining crop production areas to maintain or increase local food production.

“This type of information can contribute to local stakeholders’ decision-making processes around development,” said Andrea Baudoin Farah, assistant professor at Colorado State University, former postdoctoral researcher with NatCap, and a co-author of the paper. “Local farmers and communities are well aware of the need to preserve the ecosystems and landscapes that sustain their production systems, but they face significant challenges in a changing environment.”

Baudoin Farah noted that Andean peasant communities have deep knowledge of the interconnections between ecosystems and food production, despite being historically relegated to the steepest, most marginal lands, and neglected in terms of supportive infrastructure. “Climate change is exacerbating their already-vulnerable livelihoods. Studies like this one point to the need to channel funds to support farmers in their efforts to conserve soils and implement sustainable production systems.”

Scaling the approach in other regions

“This study shows that natural capital approaches, in this case like investing in ecosystems to secure water supplies and reduce sedimentation, are the main lever at this nexus of food, energy, climate, and water,” said Tong Wu a senior scientist & associate director of the NatCap China Program, which collaborated on this research. “They are like the router through which all the different cables go through. It’s not just one solution – it’s the best solution.”

The researchers hope the study’s findings can motivate dialogue between hydropower operators and upstream stakeholders across Latin America. The largest dams in the world are located in Asia, so they are also engaged in ongoing conversations with key actors in the hydropower sector there about scaling up this nature-based approach to addressing the water crisis that is headed their way.

With climate change, the value of water will be higher and competition for it will be stronger. “If hydropower operators want to maintain their revenue, they will need to increase their investments in nature upstream of their dams,” said study senior author Rafael Schmitt, a lead scientist at NatCap and project lead.

“Our team’s modeling framework is an important step forward in defining eco-compensation mechanisms – like paying farmers not to farm, or where to implement protected areas – in a way that is science-based and robust, despite the great uncertainties introduced by future climate change,” Schmitt added.

The Natural Capital Project is based out of the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability and its Woods Institute for the Environment, and the Stanford School of Humanities and Sciences. Other Stanford co-authors are Héctor Angarita, Jesse A. Goldstein, Natasha Batista, and Dave Fisher, all based at NatCap. Additional co-authors are Christian Montesinos Cáceres from the National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru (Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología) and Hua Zheng with the Chinese Academy of Sciences. 

This research was funded by the Moore Foundation.

---

Journal

Communications Earth & Environment

Article Publication Date

18-Nov-2024

 

Amid record year for dengue infections, new study finds climate change responsible for 19% of today’s rising dengue burden

Second study reveals how one Brazilian city escaped a historic outbreak this year by deploying mosquitoes carrying the Wolbachia bacteria that interferes with dengue transmission

American Society of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene

NEW ORLEANS (November 16, 2024) — Climate change is having a massive global impact on dengue transmission, accounting for 19% of the current dengue burden, with a potential to spark an additional 40%-60% spike by 2050 — and by as much as 150%-200% in some areas — according to a new study presented today at the Annual Meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (ASTMH).

The findings from researchers at Stanford and Harvard Universities offer the most definitive evidence to date that climate change is a big factor driving a global surge in the mosquito-borne disease. Countries in the Americas alone have recorded almost 12 million cases in 2024 compared to 4.6 million in 2023, and locally acquired infections have been reported in California and Florida. The study also carries warnings of even sharper increases to come.

“We looked at data on dengue incidence and climate variation across 21 countries in Asia and the Americas and found that there is a clear and direct relationship between rising temperatures and rising infections,” said Erin Mordecai, PhD, an infectious disease ecologist at Stanford’s Woods Institute for the Environment and the study’s senior author. “It’s evidence that climate change already has become a significant threat to human health and, for dengue in particular, our data suggests the impact could get much worse.”

While some dengue infections produce only mild symptoms, others cause excruciating joint pain (earning dengue the nickname “breakbone fever”), and severe cases can lead to bleeding complications and shock. There are no drugs to treat the disease and while there are two licensed dengue vaccines available, some dengue experts have pointed to challenges with both that could limit widespread adoption.

The study finds that amid dengue’s growing threat, moderating global warming by reducing emissions would also moderate climate impacts on dengue infections. The analysis shows that with sharp cuts in emissions, areas now on track to experience a 60% increase would instead see about a 40% rise in dengue infections between now and 2050. However, with global climate models predicting that temperatures will continue to increase even with large reductions in emissions, the researchers found that 17 of the 21 countries studied still would see climate-driven increases in dengue even under the most optimistic scenarios for carbon cuts.

Mordecai said the study was inspired by laboratory tests that found mosquitoes that carry dengue progressively churn out more and more virus as temperatures rise within a specific range. She said this temperature-induced bump starts at about 20 degrees Celsius (68 degrees Fahrenheit), then intensifies before peaking at about 28 or 29 C (about 82 F).

Her team then looked at 21 dengue endemic countries, including Brazil, Peru, Mexico, Colombia, Vietnam and Cambodia, which regularly collect data on infection rates. They also looked at other factors that can affect dengue infection rates — like rainfall patterns, seasonal changes, virus types, economic shocks and population density — in order to isolate whether there was a distinct temperature effect.  

Mordecai said that dengue-endemic areas that are just now entering that 20 C to 29 C sweet-spot for virus transmission — parts of Peru, Mexico, Bolivia and Brazil — could face the biggest future risks, with infections over the next few decades rising 150% to 200%.

Meanwhile, the study found that areas already on the high end of the temperature range, like southern Vietnam, will experience little additional climate impacts and potentially a minor decrease. Overall, the analysis revealed that there are at least 257 million people now living in places where climate warming could cause dengue incidence to double in the next 25 years.

Mordecai said the study probably underestimates the climate-related dengue threat. That’s because researchers were unable to predict potential climate impacts on dengue-endemic areas that have not consistently tracked infections, which includes large parts of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Also, Mordecai said they were unable to quantify future impacts for areas like the southern regions of the continental United States, where dengue is just starting to emerge as a local threat. “But as more and more of the U.S. moves into that optimal temperature range for dengue, the number of locally acquired infections will likely rise, though it’s too early to say how that will affect the global burden,” she said.

A Possible Solution: A Second Study Credits Common Bacteria with Protecting Brazilian City from Dengue Storm

With climate change acting as an accelerant fueling dengue’s surge, new findings presented at the ASTMH Annual Meeting provide some of the best evidence to date that releasing mosquitoes that carry a common bacteria called Wolbachia may offer a powerful tool to fend off intense outbreaks of the disease.

The study by researchers from the World Mosquito Program found that in 2024, as Brazil battled its largest dengue outbreak on record, there was only a small rise in Niterói, a city of half a million people close to Rio de Janeiro. The study credits the fact that five years ago, a partnership between the World Mosquito Program and Brazil’s Ministry of Health blanketed three-quarters of Niterói with mosquitoes infected with Wolbachia, a naturally occurring bacteria that has been shown to inhibit a mosquito’s ability to transmit dengue and other viruses. Deployments into the remaining areas were completed in May 2023.

“We already saw infections essentially flatline in Niterói after the Wolbachia deployment, and while there was a small increase in 2024, the caseload was still 90% lower than before the deployment — and nothing like what was happening in the rest of Brazil,” said Katie Anders, PhD, director of impact assessment at the World Mosquito Program, which has been leading a global effort to fight dengue with Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes. “The fact that Wolbachia has sustained itself in the mosquito population for years now and remained effective during a record year for dengue outbreaks shows that Wolbachia can provide long-term protection for communities against the increasingly frequent surges in dengue that we’re seeing globally.”

Anders said that since Wolbachia has been rolled out across Niterói, dengue incidence has dropped to an average of 84 cases per 100,000 people per year, compared to an average rate of 913 cases per 100,000 people per year in the 10 years pre-Wolbachia. The 1,736 dengue cases reported in Niterói from January to June 2024 represent a rate of 336 per 100,000 in 2024. That’s compared to a rate of 3,121 nationwide and 1,816 in Rio de Janeiro state during the same period. Overall, in 2024, Brazil has recorded 9.6 million dengue cases — more than twice as many as in 2023 — and 5,300 dengue-related deaths. 

Other trials spearheaded by the World Mosquito Program, including large-scale releases in urban areas of Colombia and Indonesia, have reported significant reductions in dengue. They also have shown that Wolbachia is safe for humans, animals and the surrounding environment. But Anders said the protective effect documented in Niterói stands out for occurring amid such an intense wave of disease. 

“In Brazil, we’re in the process of moving past Wolbachia as an experimental measure to its use as a cornerstone of dengue control,” said Luciano Moreira, PhD, the World Mosquito Program project lead in Brazil. “We’ve partnered with the Brazilian government to build a Wolbachia mosquito production facility that will enable deployment in multiple cities simultaneously — with the goal of protecting many millions of people.”

Anders noted that the production facility in Brazil is a significant step because one the biggest barriers to using Wolbachia on a large scale is that it requires releasing a large number of infected mosquitoes to spread the bacteria into the local mosquito population. She also said that governments and donors must be willing to invest with an understanding that Wolbachia is a preventative measure, not a tool for combating an ongoing outbreak — it requires a couple of years to implement and reach full effectiveness.

However, Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes transmit the bacteria to their offspring, which, according to Anders, means its protective effect could persist in a local population for many years. She said that evidence from the site of a 2011 release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in Northern Australia showed the bacteria was still present in 90% of the local mosquito population more than 10 years after releases finished.

###

About the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, founded in 1903, is the largest international scientific organization of experts dedicated to reducing the worldwide burden of tropical infectious diseases and improving global health. It accomplishes this through generating and sharing scientific evidence, informing health policies and practices, fostering career development, recognizing excellence, and advocating for investment in tropical medicine/global health research. For more information, visit astmh.org.

TRUMP SOCK PUPPET

Danielle Smith '1,000 per cent' in favour of ousting Mexico from trilateral trade deal with U.S. and Canada

HOPES TO GET KEYSTONE PIPELINE BUILT

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks at a news conference regarding a new Indigenous energy project with TC Energy in Calgary, Alta., July 30, 2024.

 THE CANADIAN PRESS/Todd Korol

Spencer Van Dyk
CTV News Parliamentary Bureau Writer, Producer
Follow |Contact
Updated Nov. 17, 2024 

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she agrees it could be time to cut Mexico out of the trilateral free trade agreement with Canada and the United States.

"Mexico has gone in a different direction, and it's pretty clear that the Americans have indicated that they want to have a fair trade relationship," Smith told CTV's Question Period host Vassy Kapelos, in an interview airing Sunday. "Mexico is not in a position to be able to offer that, especially with the investment that they have from China."

The trilateral deal was first inked in 1994, at the time called NAFTA, before being renegotiated during former president and now-president-elect Donald Trump's first term.

Trump in this last election campaign vowed to reopen the agreement when it comes up for review in 2026.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford, meanwhile, floated the idea earlier this week of ousting Mexico from the trilateral deal in favour of a bilateral one between just Canada and the U.S., a proposal of which Smith said she is "a thousand per cent" in support.

The majority of what Alberta sends to the U.S. is energy exports. According to Smith, Alberta has a $188-billion trade relationship with the United States, compared to the $2.9-billion trade relationship with Mexico.

"It's important, but our absolute number one priority is maintaining those strong trade ties with (the) United States, and if that requires us to do a bilateral agreement, then that's what we should do," she said.

On Tuesday, Ford accused Mexico of being a "back door" for China to get its products, namely vehicles, into North America, "undercutting" Canadian and American workers.

On Saturday, at the end of the APEC summit in Lima, Peru, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called Mexico a “solid trading partner,” but acknowledged concerns around Chinese investment in its economy that “need to be addressed.”

“I am hopeful that we’re going to be able to work constructively over the coming months and perhaps years to ensure that North America remains an advantageous place for North Americans, for our workers, for our middle class, and creates real growth,” Trudeau said.

Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland told reporters on Wednesday that she's heard concerns from both the outgoing Biden administration and people connected to the incoming Trump administration that "Mexico is not acting the way that Canada and the U.S. are when it comes to its economic relationship with China."

"I think those are legitimate concerns for our American partners and neighbours to have," Freeland said. "Those are concerns that I share."

Derek Burney, who was former prime minister Brian Mulroney's chief of staff when the original NAFTA was negotiated, said a Canadian push to exclude Mexico from the agreement would be "childish."

Burney — who later served as the Canadian ambassador to the U.S. — told Kapelos, also in an interview airing Sunday, that Canada should focus on its own relationship with the U.S., instead of concerning itself with Mexico.

"I don't think we need to be provocative," he said. "I think the Mexicans are doing things that are going to give them enough difficulty with the Americans without our help."

"So no, I wouldn't recommend that we take that action," he added.

Burney said the Canadian focus should be on areas of alignment and potential collaboration with the U.S., namely when it comes to energy, liquified natural gas and critical minerals.

"The Mexicans are going to have a boatload of problems to deal with, with the Americans," Burney also said. "They don't need our help, and they won't seek our help, so let them deal with their own problems with the Americans."

Burney in his interview also discussed the need for Canada to spend more on defence, and faster than it currently plans to, if it wants to be taken seriously on other issues when negotiating with the United States.

And Smith in her interview also discussed the federal government's oil and gas sector emissions cap — a policy she's vehemently opposed — and her efforts to work with the people Trump has announced he plans to bring into his administration.

Parliament gridlock continues amid Canada Post strike

By David Baxter The Canadian Press
Posted November 18, 2024 


WATCH: Canada Post strike: Union president addresses public's concerns




Parliament closes in on its eighth week of gridlock over a privilege motion, as Canada Post employees are on strike and calls emerge to exclude Mexico from upcoming trade talks.

While question period has continued, other house business is on hold due to a Conservative privilege motion calling on the government to turn over unredacted documents on a green technology fund.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and some members of his cabinet are not in Ottawa for the first half of the week, as they attend the G20 meeting in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

2:35

As 2025’s G7 host, Trudeau looks to push climate change initiatives and Ukraine support

At the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Lima, Peru this weekend, Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly said many nations have been approaching Canada on how to work with the incoming Donald Trump administration in the United States.

The Canada-U.S.-Mexico free trade agreement signed during the first Trump presidency is up for review in 2026, and the premiers of Ontario and Alberta say Canada should oust Mexico from the deal over not matching Canadian and American tariffs on imports like electric vehicles. Trudeau says Mexico is a “solid partner,” but acknowledged the concerns.

Meanwhile back in Canada, Canada Post workers hit the picket line Friday, and Labour Minister Steve MacKinnon says that he is ruling out early intervention for now, though he recently ordered binding arbitration in recent job action at ports in Montreal and British Columbia.

  

Canada Post says ‘parties remain far apart’ as strike continues

By Saba Aziz 

 Global News
Posted November 18, 2024 

WATCH Strike could be detrimental to Canada Post as a business


Canada Post and its workers’ union are entering a fresh round of mediated negotiations as a nationwide postal strike enters its fourth day

Both sides return to the bargaining table Monday with a special mediator, Peter Simpson, who was appointed by the federal government last week.

“The focus of the special mediator is for the parties to reach a deal,” Matthieu Perrotin, press secretary for Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon, said in a statement to Global News on Monday.

“Canadians are counting on the parties to reach a deal. Negotiated agreements are always the best way forward.”

More than 55,000 Canada Post workers went on strike Friday, halting mail and parcel services across the country. Some post offices have also been shuttered amid the job action.

On Monday, Canada Post said both “parties remain far apart at the table,” but the talks continue and the Crown corporation is committed to reaching new agreements.

“Canada Post supports the appointment of a special mediator by the Minister of Labour as efforts continue to achieve negotiated agreements with the Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW),” Lisa Liu, a Canada Post spokesperson, told Global News in an emailed statement Monday.

“We remain committed to reaching new agreements at the bargaining table, and not through arbitration. Discussions continue.”

5:28 Retail impacts of Canada Post strike

In an interview with Global News on Sunday, Jan Simpson, national president of the CUPW, said she is hopeful that this new round of bargaining this week will lead to the negotiation of two collective agreements for urban operations unit and the rural and suburban mail carriers (RSMC) unit.

“We’re still on the picket lines right now, we’re going to be there, but on Monday, we go back to the table with the new mediator to see what we can do,” she said.

“So hopefully … we’re able to get two collective agreements in place that meet the needs of everyone involved.”

Canada Post has said that no new items will be accepted until the strike ends, but all mail and parcels that are already in the postal network will be secured and delivered on a first-in, first-out basis once the operations resume.

The Crown corporation has also warned that even once the national strike ends, Canadians will continue to experience impact to services.

“Processing and delivery will be challenged going forward due to the impacts of the strike,” Liu said.

1:59  Canada Post strike could mean a difficult holiday season ahead


The disruption comes during the busy holiday shopping season.

Liu said the strike is negatively impacting small businesses, charities and remote communities.

Canada Post’s parcel volumes declined by 42 per cent last week compared to the same week in the previous year.

“With no new parcel volumes in the system over the four days of the national strike, this situation will only worsen,” Liu said.

The federal government has not indicated that it will consider a back-to-work legislation to end the strike, with MacKinnon saying on Friday that he “is not looking at any other solution other than negotiation.”

Sides in Canada Post strike remain far apart on several issues, union says

Federal government says it's making sure both sides have what they need to reach a deal

CBC News · Posted:   November 17, 2024

Canada Post strike enters 2nd day, Ottawa says it won’t intervene
2 days ago

Duration3:4

Canada Post stopped delivering mail across the country as of Friday as tens of thousands of postal workers went on strike over wages, working conditions and other issues. On Friday, the federal government said it does not have plans to intervene in the strike.

As the Canada Post strike drags on this weekend, a spokesperson for the federal labour minister says the government is making sure both sides have everything they need to reach a deal.

In a statement sent to CBC News on Saturday, spokesperson Matthieu Perrotin pointed out that Peter Simpson, director general of the federal mediation and conciliation service, had been appointed to support negotiations between Canada Post and the union representing its striking workers

Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon initially announced Simpson's appointment on Thursday, before the workers went on strike the next day.


"Parties must reach a deal, and Canadians are counting on them," Perrotin says in the statement. "Negotiated agreements are always the best way forward."

Canada Post workers went on strike early Friday after failing to reach an agreement with their employer, shutting down the corporation's mail service across the country.What impact is the Canada Post strike having on you? What should be done about it? Leave your story, questions and opinions here and we may read them on the Nov. 17 episode of Cross Country Checkup

The Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW) says about 55,000 workers in its urban, rural and suburban mail carrier bargaining units are off the job, adding that little progress has been made during bargaining.

Striking Canada Post workers walk the picket line outside a Toronto sorting facility on Friday. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

"Canada Post had the opportunity to prevent this strike, but it has refused to negotiate real solutions to the issues postal workers face every day," the union said in a statement.

"Instead, Canada Post left us no choice when it threatened to change our working conditions and leave our members exposed to layoffs."

Mail and parcels will not be processed or delivered during the strike, and some post offices will be closed, according to the Crown corporation. Service guarantees will be affected for items already in the postal network, and no new items will be accepted.

What you need to know about your mail during the Canada Post strike

With Canada Post strike underway, small business owners scramble to make other arrangements

The two sides began talks toward a new contract on Nov. 15, 2023.

Canada Post's latest contract offer included annual wage increases that amounted to 11.5 per cent over four years. It also offered protection of the defined benefit pension for current employees, as well as job security and health benefits.
WATCH | Is a shift in Canada Post's business model necessary?:


In wake of strike, is a shift in Canada Post’s business model necessary? 

| Canada Tonight
3 days ago

Duration5:04

Canada Post workers went on strike early Friday after the Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW) said little progress was made during bargaining. York University labour expert Steven Tufts says CUPW has not built the large-scale public campaign needed to pressure Canada Post into changing its business model, despite knowing that Canada Post is struggling financially.

CUPW said that wasn't enough and that the two parties remain far apart on several issues.

Canada Post says it has lost $490 million in the first half of 2024, part of a total $3 billion lost since 2018. The company says a strike will only further contribute to its already dire financial circumstances and that the union's demands will lead to more fixed costs that Canada Post can't afford.


"Both sides are still working towards achieving negotiated settlements and discussions will continue," Canada Post said in a statement on Saturday.
'Pressure is going to become more and more intense'

Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon signalled that the Liberal government is not currently looking to intervene and end the strike, saying Friday that he is "not looking at any other solution other than negotiation right now."

Ian Lee, an associate professor at Carleton University's Sprott School of Business, said there is "a precedent" for the federal government to legislate striking Canada Post workers back to work and that the likelihood of it happening again rises as the job action drags on and third parties call on Ottawa to act.

"I think day by day by day, the pressures on the minister of labour and the government — [from] mayors, MPs, chambers of commerce, Canadian Federation of Independent Business — the pressure is going to become more and more intense," Lee told CBC News.
WATCH | Prolonged Canada Post strike would be 'devastating' for seniors, advocate says:


Prolonged Canada Post strike would leave seniors ‘vulnerable,’ advocate says
2 days ago
Duration5:47

On the second day of the Canada Post strike, the founder and CEO of CanAge, Laura Tamblyn Watts, warns about the ‘devastating’ effect the strike could have on seniors if it goes on for several days or weeks. Watts says seniors overwhelmingly rely on mail for receiving bills and medical prescriptions.

Dan Kelly, president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, said the postal strike is "really bad timing" for small businesses with Christmas and Black Friday around the corner.

The strike has forced Kim Dowds, an Ontario-based small business owner who sells items online from estate sales, to pivot.

Dowds said she'll have to stick to selling smaller items from her online shop, The Red Rooster, because shipping larger orders through private couriers will be too expensive.

---

"I'm going to have to adjust and not sell the big stuff. And the big stuff is sometimes where the money is, right?"

She said she knows some other small business owners in rural or remote areas who will have to put deliveries on hold entirely.

"Because Canada Post is the only game in town, they're going to have to pause during the most important time of the year for selling."

 

Peru Becomes New Center of Rivalry Between the U.S. and China

The U.S. looks to enhance its relationship with Peru through the northern port of Paita (YILPORT)

Published Nov 16, 2024 3:53 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

 

The U.S. has moved to counter China’s investments in a mega port in Peru with the Department of State funding an initiative that will establish a sister relationship between the ports of Hueneme in California and Paita in Peru.

As China’s President Xi Jinping inaugurated the $3.5 billion megaport of Chancay, South America’s first Beijing-funded port infrastructure project, the U.S announced that Hueneme and Paita will establish a sister port relationship, a move that is largely designed to safeguard Washington’s interest. It was a part of a series of agreements the U.S. announced with Peru timed to the start of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum 2024.

The two ports signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) that defines the relationship, with the deliverables being fostering trade relations, enhancing commercial exchanges, and promoting economic development. The key focus areas will include improving transparency in procurement, sharing best practices in port management, exploring green energy initiatives, and collaborating on sustainable port development strategies.

The U.S. embassy in Peru said in a statement that the Department of State is funding the initiative but did not reveal the amount of commitments.

The U.S. wants to secure its interests in South America through the port of Paita which is strategically located on the northern coast of Peru in the Piura Region. This makes the facility, which is jointly owned and operated by Terminales Portuarios Euroandinos (TPE) and DP World, serve as a key gateway for Peru and South American trade to international markets. Over the past decade and a half, Paita has become Peru’s most important port for exporting agricultural goods and seafood products, generating more than 1,000 direct and indirect jobs in the north of the country. It handles about 10 percent of Peru's freight traffic with an annual capacity of 650,000 TEU.

“In the North of Peru, TPE stands out as the main port for agro-exports and is the potential gateway for importing products. This characteristic makes it a strategic port on the West Coast of South America. I have no doubt that the signing of this MoU will bring mutual benefits in terms of development as green ports, commercial strategies, as well as safety and security,” said Eduardo Cerdeira, CEO of TPE.

Establishing the sister relationship between the two ports came on the same day that China and Peru inaugurated Chancay port, which is located approximately 50 north of Lima and is designed to serve as a major hub for Chinese trade with South America. Chancay which has an initial annual capacity of 1 million TEU is expected to strengthen Peru's maritime infrastructure on the Pacific coast, allowing transshipment of cargo to Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Panama. It will permit the countries to bypass ports in Mexico and the U.S. as they trade with Asia while China emphasizes it as a key link to build direct trade.
 

 

WWIII

To Prepare for a Pacific War, U.S. must Harden Southern Flank

Vessel traffic backed up near the Panama Canal in August 2023. (NASA photo)

Published Nov 16, 2024 3:57 PM by CIMSEC

 

 

[By Henry Ziemer]

The United States’ foundations as a global great power rest in no small part on its status as a regional hegemon. No single country in the Western Hemisphere can make a serious bid to balance Washington’s economic and military might, to say nothing of competing with the close but often-overlooked bonds of trade, culture, and family which constitute vital elements of U.S. strength in the region. Because they are so easily forgotten however, the United States has shown an alarming willingness to take its position in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) for granted. The 2022 National Security Strategy proudly proclaims that “No region impacts the United States more directly than the Western Hemisphere,” but the U.S. defense posture in LAC is at risk of being outflanked by extra-hemispheric competitors, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) first among them.

While the PRC has led with economic engagement in its approach to LAC countries, military considerations have not been far behind. China has funded dual-use civilian and military infrastructure, most notably ports and satellite ground stations throughout the region. Today, Chinese-owned or operated ports dot the coastlines of LAC countries, secretive satellite ground stations collect signals intelligence in Argentina, and potentially Cuba, and PRC-supplied weapons have made their way into the hands of dictatorial regimes like Venezuela. In the event of a Pacific War, these capabilities and more would likely be leveraged by China to collect intelligence on and disrupt U.S. operations within the Western Hemisphere, as well as leverage its soft power within the region to court influence and keep LAC governments neutral or even sway some towards overt support of Beijing’s position in the conflict. While it remains improbable that China would seek to contest the Western Hemisphere theater with the United States by 2027, the combination of these hybrid tactics could severely undermine the United States’ position in the very region most critical for U.S. physical security.

Fortunately, the next three years present a number of opportunities for the United States to meaningfully strengthen its southern flank. Specifically, the United States should prioritize better coordination between its Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) and Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) and strengthen ties with regional allies such as Colombia and Argentina. Finally, any strategy aimed at countering China’s expansion in LAC must incorporate a resource-backed counteroffer to PRC investment in strategic sectors like ports, telecommunications, and power generation.

Why LAC Matters to the PRC

China’s relations within its own “near abroad” understandably figure heavily in most analyses of potential Indo-Pacific conflicts and their outcomes. To a lesser extent, scholars have also looked to Africa and the Middle East as regions that would be critical to secure China’s energy imports during a conflict. Even less understood, however, is the importance that the Western Hemisphere holds for the PRC and its ability to wage war from an ocean away. This is a major blind spot, as LAC has emerged over the past two decades as a keystone region for China’s economy and industry, exemplified by Brazil’s longtime status as the single largest recipient of Chinese foreign direct investment.

LAC, and particularly South America, is a vital source of natural resources to China. While the Middle East is crucial for China’s energy supply, the Americas are a linchpin of China’s food and mineral imports. In 2022, Brazil alone accounted for nearly 23 percent of China’s food imports, and nearly 60 percent of its soybean imports in particular. Maintaining access to LAC’s rich agricultural industry will be critical for China to continue to feed its 1.4 billion inhabitants in the event of a major conflagration.

LAC is also a key supplier of critical minerals to China, especially copper and lithium. Chile and Peru together accounted for half of China’s copper imports in 2022, while as of May 2024 Chile and Argentina provided a staggering 97.7 percent of China’s lithium carbonate. These minerals are essential for China’s economy as a whole, but also its defense sector as they are instrumental in everything from high-capacity batteries used to sustain fleets of autonomous systems, to the wiring and interconnects needed for basic vehicles and communications systems. More high-end capabilities depend on a staggering variety of rare minerals and metals, such as niobium, a critical component in advanced aeronautics and hypersonic missiles. Brazil sits roughly 94 percent of global niobium reserves, leading the PRC to assiduously cultivate an ownership stake over roughly a quarter of Brazilian niobium production.

Finally, China, like Russia, has almost certainly realized the benefits that a presence within the Western Hemisphere can accrue in terms of capacity for horizontal escalation. Moscow, under the so-called Primakov Doctrine has practiced this frequently, pursuing military maneuvers in the Western Hemisphere as a tit-for-tat escalation in response to U.S. support for Ukraine. In July 2024 for instance, Russia dispatched two naval flotillas to Cuba and Venezuela in direct response to U.S. easing of restrictions on long-range strikes by Ukraine into Russian territory. For China, the cultivation of dual-use infrastructure, combined with support for anti-U.S. authoritarian regimes like Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, would surely prove an asset in the event of war in the Indo-Pacific.

Understanding the Risks

China’s current position in the Western Hemisphere presents three key wartime risks for the United States: (1) control over ports and maritime choke points, (2) dual use of space infrastructure to degrade U.S. space capabilities and threaten the homeland, and (3) disinformation and diplomatic pressure towards U.S. allies and partners.

The first risk is potentially the most proximate and decisive in the event of a major conflict in the Indo-Pacific. Chinese state-owned or based firms currently own or operate at least twelve ports across the LAC region. This includes the ports of Balboa and Cristobal, located on either side of the Panama Canal. The ports are leased and operated by Hutchison Ports, a Hong Kong-based private company which acquired the sites in 1997. While even at the time observers raised concerns over the potential for the Chinese government to exercise undue influence over Hutchison’s operations along this critical maritime artery, over the past decade the PRC’s steady erosion of Hong Kong’s independence only elevates this risk. Indeed, in 2017 a slew of laws, notably the National Intelligence Law, National Defense Mobilization Law, and National Defense Transportation Law, underscored that the Chinese government can enlist the services of any private company for the purpose of nebulously-defined national security interests. Two PRC state-owned companies, the China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) and China Harbor Engineering Company (CHEC), were also part of the winning bid to build the $1.3 billion fourth bridge over the canal, a major undertaking which (after serious delays) has at last begun to move forward.

The confluence of PRC infrastructure and China’s impressive soft power influence in Panama opens up a potential nightmare scenario for the United States in the event of an Indo-Pacific war. In such a scenario, China could either directly, or through a proxy, sabotage port infrastructure on either side of the canal, disrupting or entirely preventing transit through the choke point for a period of time. Not only would this serious impact U.S. trade and shipping, it would cripple the United States’ ability to quickly shift forces between Atlantic and Pacific theaters. With current wargames suggesting the first phases of a naval clash would result in major losses, the added weeks it would take for reinforcements to transit around the Strait of Magellan rather than through the Canal Zone could prove decisive.

While loss of the Panama Canal is one of the most clear-cut risks presented by China’s power position in LAC ports, it is by no means the only way China could leverage maritime infrastructure to its advantage. Ports by their nature collect massive amounts of data on the shape and flow of international trade. The PRC’s planned port and special economic zone in Antigua, together with other PRC-controlled ports, may grant Beijing a one-of-a-kind window into commerce moving throughout the eastern Caribbean and the sea lines of communication which run through it. In the case of ports directly owned or operated by PRC-based firms, like the Brazilian port of Paranaguá or the planned Peruvian megaport of Chancay, this intelligence-gathering capacity could be turned into an operational capability by strategically delaying or seizing key shipments to snarl supply chains for key goods and apply economic pressure on the United States and allies. Finally, presence in regional ports may allow the PRC to carry out more sensitive sabotage operations targeting associated maritime infrastructure, particularly the undersea cables which comprise the backbone of global internet communications. While perhaps not decisive in their own right, China’s position in LAC ports could accord it a host of benefits that are currently underappreciated in planning around a potential Pacific conflict.

Ports are not the only dual-use infrastructure of note. In recent years, reports have highlighted a proliferation of PRC-operated space infrastructure stretching from the very tip of the Southern Cone through Venezuela, and potentially even into the Caribbean. Most notable among these is the Espacio Lejano Research Station operated by the People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force (PLASSF) and located in Neuquén, Argentina. Authorized in 2014 under the government of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, the site has become notorious as a “black box” which even Argentine government authorities struggle to gain access to. To date, two inspections have been conducted of the facility, one in 2019 and another more recently under the Milei administration in April 2024 – indicating that serious political will is needed to gain access. In both cases, the Argentine delegation coordinated with the Chinese embassy prior to arrival, and the overall inspection process was relatively perfunctory, doing little to assuage U.S. or Argentine concerns about the facility’s potential for military use.

Neuquén was notably also the first ground station operated by the PRC outside Chinese territory and capable of providing telemetry tracking and control (TT&C) which enables the maneuver and operation of satellites and other orbital vehicles. The facility’s strategic location in the southern hemisphere was also particularly important to supply TT&C capabilities for China’s Chang’e 4 and 5 lunar probes. Neuquén, and similar ground stations in turn compliment China’s growing space presence in Antarctica where in 2023 the PRC announced plans to begin construction of a new dual-use satellite ground station at its Zhongshan research base. TT&C is not just important for satellites and other scientific craft, it is vital for the operation of hypersonic glide vehicles, which conduct complex maneuvers that depend on ground data links for guidance and to better evade missile defenses. China, which according the Congressional Research Service, has conducted 20 times as many hypersonic weapon tests as the United States, could use this network of ground stations in the event of a conflict to strike at the United States from the south, in doing so evading U.S. missile defenses which are primarily concentrated on northern approaches. Chinese space infrastructure in LAC could furthermore help the PRC collect key data on the orbits and locations of satellites in doing so enabling PRC anti-satellite warfare capabilities during a Pacific war scenario.

The final risk involves PRC use of diplomatic influence alongside dis- or mis-information campaigns to shape the political environment in LAC to its favor in the event of a war with the United States. Key targets in such a scenario would likely be the seven LAC countries which still recognize Taiwan instead of the PRC. Beijing would undoubtedly seek to isolate and pressure these countries to shift their recognition prior to or even during a PRC invasion of the island. China could cooperate with other U.S. adversaries to magnify the effect of its disinformation campaigns. According to one report, in Argentina, Chinese and Russian media outlets work in concert with one another to produce “a virtuous cycle of disinformation.” Critically, these efforts would not need to actively sway countries into fully backing China’s campaign (with the exception of those regimes like Venezuela and Nicaragua likely predisposed to do so already), but would instead merely need to convince governments to remain on the sidelines. 

China could also use its economic heft as the number one or two trading partner for a majority of LAC countries to ensure neutrality, if not support from countries in the region. Again, the case of Russia proves instructive of how an authoritarian regime can deploy messaging and economic pressure to compel LAC governments. Shortly after his inauguration, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa proposed selling $200 million in legacy Russian and Soviet weaponry to the United States in exchange for new equipment (the United States would presumably pass the weapons it received along to Ukraine). Moscow retaliated by threatening phytosanitary restrictions on Ecuadorian banana imports, while launching a media push to claim that if the deal moved forward, Ecuador would make itself a belligerent on the side of Ukraine. The pressure worked, Noboa relented, and Ecuador’s banana exports continued apace. China, which carries significantly more economic weight in the region than Russia could prove a frightening prospect indeed for any government considering taking a vocal stance against the PRC in wartime. 

Taken together, the PRC has quietly amassed a host of capabilities within the Western Hemisphere to give it both tactical and strategic advantages against the United States in the event of a crisis or conflict in the Indo-Pacific. The United States, for its part, has been slow to react to the scope of this threat and adjust priorities in LAC accordingly.

Bolstering Readiness in the United States’ Shared Neighborhood

There are a number of steps the United States can and should take between now and 2027 to gird itself and its regional allies in preparation for potential conflict with China.

Better Integrate SOUTHCOM in Pacific War Planning: A lack of integration across U.S. combatant commands risks cultivating a myopic view of Pacific war. Given the PRC and PLA’s global ambitions, any future conflict with China is unlikely to be restricted solely to one theater. As the above sections have illustrated, there are a number of areas where China could pursue a horizontal escalation strategy to gain an edge against the United States. Fostering greater exchange and intelligence sharing across combatant commands should be a priority to ensure the United States is ready to fight and win a war on multiple fronts. One early step could be to create a designated role for SOUTHCOM in key Pacific exercises like the Rim of the Pacific maritime warfare exercise. LAC militaries such as Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru, already participate in this exercise. Carving out a greater role for SOUTHCOM could help bolster U.S. defense ties with regional militaries and build closer partnerships across combatant commands.

Another area for increased cooperation could be a cross-cutting effort across SOUTHCOM, INDOPACOM, and partner governments to tackle illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing, a threat which plagues communities and ecosystems across the Pacific. While not directly applicable in a warfighting scenario, such an effort would serve to build greater partnership and information sharing between combatant commands, and build goodwill among partners throughout the Pacific domain. 

Double Down on Defense Cooperation: While China has made headway in defense cooperation activities, the United States remains by far the preeminent security partner for the vast majority of LAC countries. However, more can be done to strengthen these ties and build partner capacity to respond to potential malign PRC activity in the hemisphere. One easy step would be to amend the Department of Defense’s Section 312 and 321 requirements that foreign military education training focus on “developing countries.” The Department of Defense’s current standards for designating a country as “developing” prevent partners like Chile, Panama, Uruguay, and most recently Guyana, from benefiting from U.S. training programs. Amending these to include a more nuanced standard would open the door to a much wider array of military-to-military engagement.

Furthermore, the United States should seek to rise to the occasion in cases where LAC governments have already expressed interest in a closer security partnership. Ecuador, which is currently contemplating reversing a constitutional prohibition on foreign military basing to allow for a reopening of the former U.S. naval base at Manta could be a key ally in this effort. Argentina, which is currently pursuing an ambitious military modernization effort, and has expressed a desire to rise to NATO Global Partner status, could be another.

Harden Allies Against Chinese Economic Coercion: China’s investments in critical infrastructure throughout the region pose risks not only for the United States, but its LAC allies and partners as well. For instance, two PRC based companies, China Three Gorges Corporation and China Southern Power Grid International, now collectively control the entirety of Lima, Peru’s power supply. Combined with the forthcoming port of Chancay, China has a number of vectors through which it can apply pressure against a Peruvian government seeking to pursue a policy against Beijing’s interests. The State Department could lead a regionwide effort with allies and partners to map and evaluate risks posted by Chinese investments in critical infrastructure. The findings of this review should also be passed along to the U.S. Development Finance Corporation for review and to help prioritize investments aimed at reducing the amount of influence China can wield over LAC government through its infrastructure projects and trade links.

Conclusion

Future conflicts will not be constrained to a single geographic region. In the event of a Pacific war between the PRC and United States, LAC will almost undoubtedly find itself a zone of contention, whether it wishes it or not. Failure to incorporate this understanding into U.S. contingency planning for such a conflict therefore creates risks not just for the United States itself, but also its regional allies and partners who may find themselves in the crosshairs of PRC coercive efforts. There is still time to patch key vulnerabilities in the region, but a recognition LAC’s important role in future global crises cannot come soon enough.

Henry Ziemer is an Associate Fellow with the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). His research focuses on great power competition, transnational organized crime, as well as security and defense in the Western Hemisphere. His writing and commentary have been featured in CSIS, War on the Rocks, the Financial Times, and The Wall Street Journal.

This article appears courtesy of CIMSEC and may be found in its original form here. 

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.

OSG's CEO Proposes One-Cent Export Tax to Fund U.S. Tankers

File image courtesy OSG

Published Nov 17, 2024 5:01 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

 

In the event of a major war in the Western Pacific, U.S. forces are going to need fuel, and a lot of it. Government estimates of the supply needs for carriers, warships and ground forces run in the range of 50 million gallons per day, all of which would have to be transported over the vast reaches of the Pacific Ocean. U.S. war planners are well aware that the U.S.-flag tanker capacity to deliver this fuel is insufficient. The U.S. Tanker Security Program (TSP) subsidy has helped to offset this deficiency by recruiting 10 product tankers into the U.S.-flag fleet, but may not be enough in its current form. Sam Norton - CEO of Overseas Shipholding Group - has a plan to do much more, and make foreign consumers of American energy pay to do it. 

According to Norton, a 30-ship Tanker Security Program fleet would go a long way towards bridging the national security gap, but the cost of tripling the program, would be significant. By his calculations, a viable plan for keeping 30 tankers in the TSP would require subsidies of about $400 million to cover the "higher operating costs of crewing and maintaining a US flag vessel." 

Applying a levy of $0.01 per gallon on the 125 million gallons of refined fuel that American exporters ship out of the country every day would raise $400 million a year, Norton pointed out. He noted that this $0.01 per gallon tax on foreign buyers would be a tiny fraction of the $0.184 tax that American citizens pay on each gallon of gasoline at the pump. The gas tax raises billions for the Federal Highway Trust Fund, which is an economic and national-security priority. 

"The US deems maintenance of its federal highway systems a necessity and asks taxpayers to bear the cost of that priority. Doesn’t a similar commitment to maintaining maritime logistical readiness at a cost of only one percent of the money spent on federal highways demand equal attention?" Norton asked. 

China Responds Angrily to Philippines' Plan to Buy U.S. Missile System

Courtesy U.S. Army

Published Nov 14, 2024 9:54 PM by The Maritime Executive

China has responded angrily to news that the Philippine government might purchase an American-made missile system that could be used for coastal defense or medium-range strike. The Philippine military is reorienting its strategy to focus on defense against an external threat, and an intermediate-range missile system would augment its newly-purchased BrahMos antiship missiles. 

Last weekend, the Financial Times reported that Manila might buy the Typhon Mid-Range Capability (MRC), also known as the Strategic Mid-range Fires System (SMRF). The Typhon is a truck-mounted system that can launch the Tomahawk cruise missile and the SM-6 supersonic air defense missile. The latest variants of these two missiles have anti-ship capabilities, and the Tomahawk could reach mainland China from Luzon. 

The U.S. Army deployed one Typhon launcher to the Philippines during an exercise in April, and it has remained in place - much to China's ire. Despite Beijing's objections, Manila may buy the Typhon for its own use, without relying on U.S. forces to operate it. 

"We do intend to acquire such capabilities. We will not compromise our right to obtain these kinds of capabilities in the future within our territory," said Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro, speaking to the FT.

Beijing has been building up its strike capabilities in the region for years: it has constructed seven large artificial island bases off the Philippines' western coastline, and it has fully militarized three of them with strategic runways, fighter squadrons, air defense systems and antiship missile systems, according to U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. The Asia-Maritime Transparency Initiative has observed HQ-9 surface-to-air missile systems and YJ-12B antiship cruise missile batteries at Chinese island installations in the Spratlys since 2018.  

However, China is unwilling to accept similar weapons installations in other countries, and has urged Manila to send the Typhon system home to the U.S. immediately. "The Philippines, by bringing in this offensive strategic weapon, is enabling a country outside the region to fuel tensions and antagonism," said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian on Thursday. "Such a move is provocative and dangerous, and it is an extremely irresponsible choice to its own people and people of all Southeast Asian countries."