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Thursday, April 16, 2026

There Is Nothing New About Trump’s Economic Populism – OpEd


Trump’s policies are not guided by a coherent philosophy; they form a transactional strategy that draws on tactics employed by earlier Republican leaders. All this makes clear that such interventionism is a legacy of the GOP itself—rather than an aberration within the American right—as many analysts wrongly claim.


April 16, 2026 
By MISES
By Lorenzo Cianti


The Supreme Court’s 6–3 decision invalidating Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs, followed almost immediately by the President’s response reinstating and increasing them, reminds us once again how rapidly American politics evolves. Yet, in some cases, it pays to recognize that certain underlying threads in government policy remain constant, regardless of the period or the leaders in charge.

Too often, so-called “experts” weigh in on current events without any real command of economic history. Consider the outrage among prominent Republicans over Trump’s bombastic campaign promises and what his detractors see as troubling moves after returning to office.

In a December 2025 op-ed for The New York Times, former presidential candidate Mitt Romney contended that tariffs “burden lower- and middle-income families,” pointing to analyses showing they act as a regressive tax that hits the poorest Americans hardest. Still, in the same piece, he echoed progressive rhetoric by calling for higher taxes on the rich, himself included. We have no intention of defending Trump here, but one neglected aspect deserves attention.

For decades, a persistent myth has held that the Reagan-era GOP heralded an age of unfettered laissez-faire capitalism, nudging the entire ideological spectrum toward pro-free trade, business-friendly positions. It thus became natural to portray Trump as an outlier in the Republican fold—an irritating, heterodox chapter in the story of a party that, on the surface at least, has long championed individual liberty and small government. The truth, however, is far more nuanced than the dominant narrative would have us believe.

To debunk this simplistic notion, we must dissect the most salient aspects of Trump’s platform and compare them with the GOP’s historical record.

Protectionism


Protectionism stands as the policy Trump touts most proudly, so much so that he has proclaimed himself “Tariff Man.” He went further still, calling “tariff” the most beautiful word in the English language.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Republican Party emerged in the mid-1850s by inheriting Henry Clay’s “American System,” which formed the cornerstone of the Whigs’ agenda: leveraging the federal government to stabilize finance, protect and foster domestic industry, and build national infrastructure.

Whigs and early Republicans both favored higher tariffs not only to generate federal revenue, but also to safeguard and promote US manufacturers, with the goal of developing a more diversified, industrializing economy. As Lew Rockwell aptly noted in the introduction to Murray Rothbard’s For a New Liberty: The Libertarian Manifesto:


The Civil War, in addition to its unprecedented bloodshed and devastation, was used by the triumphal and virtually one–party Republican regime to drive through its statist, formerly Whig, program: national governmental power, protective tariff, subsidies to big business, inflationary paper money, resumed control of the federal government over banking, large–scale internal improvements, high excise taxes, and, during the war, conscription and an income tax.

The US House of Representatives passed the Morrill Tariff on the eve of Lincoln’s presidency. The measure sharply raised tariff rates on dutiable imports and widened the protectionist scope of federal policy. A subsequent adjustment soon pushed rates even higher.

The 1890 McKinley Tariff, named after then-Representative William McKinley, established the highest average tariff level in US history up to that time, with some rates surpassing 100 percent. The Fordney-McCumber Tariff of 1922, enacted under Warren Harding, produced substantial increases in a decade defined by isolationism and protectionist sentiment.

Yet it was the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, signed into law by Herbert Hoover, that delivered the most dramatic escalation of duties in American history to that point. This infamous measure lifted average tariff rates to approximately 60 percent—up from the Fordney-McCumber level of 38 percent—in an effort to shield domestic employment. The result was a cascade of retaliatory tariffs from trading partners around the world.


The Smoot-Hawley Act was a classic example of beggar–thy–neighbor policy, in which one country pursues its own national advantage at the direct expense of others. This zero-sum logic parallels the rationale behind Trump’s tariffs, as the following chart illustrates:



Price Controls

On December 19, 2025, Trump announced nine new agreements with major pharmaceutical companies to lower prescription drug prices for American patients, bringing them in line with the lowest prices paid in other developed countries (known as most-favored-nation, or MFN, pricing). These voluntary deals lower costs for Medicaid programs and certain direct–to–consumer sales, building on earlier MFN efforts from his administration.

The best-known historical precedent came on August 15, 1971, when Richard Nixon declared a 90-day freeze on wages and prices as part of his New Economic Policy. That move aimed to combat runaway inflation and avert a currency crisis amid the collapse of the Bretton Woods system.

It was the first peacetime imposition of mandatory wage and price controls in US history, initially winning broad public support but then proving disastrous. Driven by stagflation and fears of a gold drain after the dollar’s convertibility ended, the inflation rate had climbed above 12 percent by 1974.

The program evolved through multiple phases, including the establishment of the Pay Board and Price Commission to oversee allowable increases. Artificially-suppressed prices quickly led to widespread shortages, most notably in gasoline and steel, with long lines at pumps and rationing conditions. Businesses, unable to cover costs, reduced output, cut quality, or were forced to shut down.

The controls disrupted market signals, prevented economic calculation, and failed to curb long–term inflation, contributing to distortions that lingered for years. Why should we believe similar interventions today would produce different results?


Tax Cuts

Through the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), Trump’s first term delivered the most significant federal tax overhaul since the 1980s.

This mirrors Ronald Reagan’s 1981 Economic Recovery Tax Act—which phased in a 25 percent across-the-board cut in individual rates (top marginal from 70 percent to 50 percent), accelerated depreciation, and inflation indexing—and the 1986 Tax Reform Act, which simplified brackets and dropped the top rate to 28 percent, but left overall revenue roughly intact due to offsets.

As Rothbard asserted in his critique of Reaganomics, these cuts were illusory and temporary in practice, offset by bracket creep, rising payroll taxes, stealth increases, and massive spending growth that ballooned the federal deficit without structural restraint. Although any tax cut should be welcome, in both cases, these were easily reversible measures that drove deficits higher because they were not accompanied by cuts to public spending and government departments.

Government Spending


The Republican embrace of expansive government spending under the banner of “compassionate conservatism” reached new heights during George W. Bush’s presidency.

In 2003, Bush signed Medicare Part D—a massive new entitlement program providing prescription drug benefits to seniors—with initial costs estimated at $400 billion over ten years, later revised upward to $534 billion. The voluntary benefit, administered through private insurers, represented a major expansion of federal involvement in healthcare, adding trillions to long-term liabilities without corresponding offsets.

Similarly, in October 2008, Bush enacted the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) as part of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act, authorizing $700 billion (then capped at $475 billion) to bail out financial institutions by purchasing troubled assets, ultimately disbursing $443 billion with a net cost of $31 billion after recoveries.

These interventions underscored the GOP’s willingness to deploy federal resources during crises and foreshadow Trump’s own big-spending tendencies. Bush’s 2008 Economic Stimulus Act also provided $152 billion in rebate checks to over 130 million households, aimed at boosting spending amid the financial crisis.

That approach finds a counterpart in Trump’s 2020 CARES Act—a $2 trillion package that included $1,200 direct payments per adult as part of broader relief, though on a vastly larger scale (12 percent of GDP in 2020 versus 1 percent in 2008). Both initiatives sought rapid economic stimulus but prioritized short-term aid over fiscal restraint.

Conclusion

Trump’s policies are not guided by a coherent philosophy; they form a transactional strategy that draws on tactics employed by earlier Republican leaders. They are best understood as a somewhat disorganized, contradictory blend of neo-mercantilism, national populism, and old-school protectionism, rooted in the Whig program and traditional Republicanism.

Trumpism combines higher tariffs abroad with “fewer regulations” at home, folding in Nixon’s price controls, Reagan’s tax cuts, and Bush’s expansionary policies. All this makes clear that such interventionism is a legacy of the GOP itself—rather than an aberration within the American right—as many analysts wrongly claim.


About the author:
 Lorenzo Cianti is a student of Political Science and International Relations at Roma Tre University. Passionate about Austrian Economics and political philosophy, he is a regular contributor to L’Opinione delle Libertà—Italy’s oldest continuously published newspaper—and to the online magazine Atlantico Quotidiano. He was a finalist in the 2026 Kenneth Garschina Undergraduate Student Essay Contest for the essay “The Chainsaw Revolution: Javier Milei’s Rothbardian Assault on Argentine Collectivism.”


Source: This article was published by the Mises Institute

The Mises Institute, founded in 1982, teaches the scholarship of Austrian economics, freedom, and peace. The liberal intellectual tradition of Ludwig von Mises (1881-1973) and Murray N. Rothbard (1926-1995) guides us. Accordingly, the Mises Institute seeks a profound and radical shift in the intellectual climate: away from statism and toward a private property order. The Mises Institute encourages critical historical research, and stands against political correctness.

Monday, April 13, 2026

‘Hungary Has Chosen Europe’ as Voters End 16 Straight Years of Orbán’s Far-Right Rule

“Europe has always chosen Hungary,” said the head of the European Union. “Together, we are stronger.”



Jubilant Hungarians wave flags to celebrate the resounding Tisza win in parliamentary elections on April 12, 2026 in Budapest.

(Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

Brett Wilkins
Apr 12, 2026
COMMON DREAMS


Far-right Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Sunday conceded defeat to conservative European lawmaker Peter Magyar in parliamentary elections that ended 16 years of increasingly authoritarian Christian nationalist rule amid overt interference from the Trump administration and alleged covert meddling by Russia.

“The election result is not final yet, but it is understandable and clear,” Orbán said. “The election result is painful for us, but clear. The responsibility and possibility of governing was not given to us. I have congratulated the winner.”

“We will serve our country and the Hungarian nation from the opposition,” he added.

Magyar, who leads the socially conservative but democratic Tisza Party, said on social media that “just now, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has congratulated me on our victory in a phone call.”

Tisza is projected to win 135 seats in the 199-seat Országgyűlés, or Parliament, with nearly half of all votes counted, according to the national election office. Orbán’s Fidesz party is projected to control 57 seats, based on results as of Sunday evening.

Magyar had promised that “step by step, brick by brick, we are taking back our homeland and building a new country, a sovereign, modern, European Hungary.”

Domestic and international critics have long accused Orbán of systematically eroding Hungary’s democratic institutions, tightening his grip over the country’s political system, and consolidating control over much of the media to strengthen Fidesz’s rule.

After serving a single term as prime minister from 1998-2002, Orbán was elected again in 2010 and served four consecutive terms, thanks to passage by Fidesz-led lawmakers of the so-called “Fundamental Law” and other illiberal measures.

Human rights deteriorated markedly during Orbán’s tenure, especially for LGBTQ+ people, migrants, women, and Roma. The European Union has withheld billions of dollars in funding in response.

EU leaders have condemned Orbán’s rule, calling his government a “hybrid regime of electoral autocracy.” Orbán describes it as “illiberal democracy,” while touting its universal appeal to international conservatives, including US President Donald Trump.

European leaders also bristled at Orban’s warm personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, although the Hungarian leader did condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and voted along with the rest of the 27-nation EU to impose economic sanctions on Moscow.

Russia is accused of trying to influence the outcome of the election in favor of Fidesz via a coordinated online disinformation campaign. At a massive election eve rally and concert in Budapest, thousands of attendees chanted in unison, “Russians go home!”



Trump and senior members of his administration had openly backed Orbán, with the president promising “to use the full economic might of the United States to strengthen Hungary’s economy” if the prime minister was reelected.

US Vice President JD Vance traveled to Budapest last week to campaign for Orbán. While decrying what he called “disgraceful” interference by the EU—of which Hungary is a member—Vance added that he wanted to “help as much as I can possibly help” to secure Orbán’s reelection.



Orbán has also accused Ukraine of election interference, although he has provided no evidence supporting his claim.

Responding to alleged foreign meddling, Magyar said on social media that “this is our country.”

“Hungarian history is not written in Washington, Moscow, or Brussels—it is written in Hungary’s streets and squares,” he insisted.

Numerous world leaders congratulated Magyar.

“Europe’s heart is beating stronger in Hungary tonight,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on social media. “Hungary has chosen Europe. Europe has always chosen Hungary. Together, we are stronger. A country reclaims its European path. The Union grows stronger.”

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said: “The Hungarian people have decided. My heartfelt congratulations on your electoral success. I am looking forward to working with you. Let’s join forces for a strong, secure and, above all, united Europe.”

French President Emmanuel Macron wrote on X that “France welcomes what has been a victory in terms of people taking part in the democratic process, and a victory which shows the attachment of the Hungarian people to the values of the European Union and for Hungary’s role in Europe.”

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson cheered “Tisza’s historic victory in the Hungarian election!”

“I look forward to working closely with you—as allies and EU Members,” Kristersson added. “This marks a new chapter in the history of Hungary.”

'Bye bye, Viktor!' Internet erupts as Trump-endorsed far-right leader loses election

Robert Davis
April 12, 2026 
RAW STORY


Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban votes during the Hungarian parliamentary election in Budapest, Hungary, April 12, 2026. REUTERS/Lisi Niesner

The internet erupted on Sunday after a Trump-backed autocrat lost a high-stakes election.

Viktor Orbán, a strongman and staunch Russian ally who has led Hungary for the last 16 years, conceded defeat to opposition party leader Peter Magyar in the country's national election. Orbán has been a symbol of the rise of the far right across Europe as he sought to roll back the country's democratic reforms.

Orbán lost the election despite U.S. Vice President JD Vance traveling to the country to campaign for him. President Donald Trump also endorsed Orbán in multiple Truth Social posts.

Orbán described his loss as "painful," according to a report from the Associated Press.

Political analysts and observers reacted to the news on social media.

"Bye bye Viktor!" former Republican lawmaker Adam Kinzinger posted on X. "MAGA hero is gone."

"Voters in Hungary said no to a strong man. We can do it too," legal expert Joyce Vance posted on X.

"I’m incredibly obsessed with JD Vance sinking Victor Orban," political commentator Molly Jong-Fast posted on Bluesky.

"Off with you, you fascist Putin puppet," author Paul Kemp posted on Bluesky.

"The return of Trump has been dreadful news for hard-right politicians around the world, and now they're disrespecting him by accepting electoral defeat," Larry the Cat, who lives at the U.K. Prime Minister's residence at 10 Downing Street, posted on X.


Trump-endorsed autocrat in Hungary concedes election loss after 16 years in power

Robert Davis
April 12, 2026 
RAW STORY


Viktor Orbán, the autocratic Hungarian president and staunch Russian ally, conceded defeat in the country's national election on Sunday, ending his 16-year reign in power, according to reports.

The Associated Press reported that with 60% of the vote counted, opposition leader Peter Magyar’s party held 52% of the vote compared to Orbán's 38% support. Orbán described the loss as "painful."

"It’s a major blow for Orbán, the European Union’s longest-serving leader and one of its biggest antagonists, who has traveled a long road from his early days as a liberal, anti-Soviet firebrand to the Russia-friendly nationalist admired today by the global far-right," the AP reported.

Trump endorsed Orbán in a Truth Social post on Friday, calling him " a truly strong and powerful leader." Trump added that the U.S. stood ready to "strengthen Hungary's economy," if Orbán won.


'The tears of MAGA will flow': Internet brutally mocks GOP fears over potential Orbán loss

Nicole Charky-Chami
April 11, 2026 
RAW STORY


President Donald Trump shakes hands with Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as they take part in a charter announcement for Trump's Board of Peace initiative aimed at resolving global conflicts, alongside the 56th annual World Economic Forum, in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 22, 2026. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

The internet was mocking MAGA followers over how they could respond to a potential loss for Hungary's authoritarian prime minister Viktor Orbán, a far-right symbol.

Orbán has served four consecutive terms as prime minister in the Eastern European country since 2010 and MAGA was looking to the Sunday election as a signal of what could happen during midterms in the United States. Vice President JD Vance and President Donald Trump have also been vocal supporters, with Vance even heading to Hungary to stump for the prime minister and Trump making multiple endorsements of Orbán, who has been referred to as a dictator by outside observers.

People offered their predictions of what they think MAGA would do if Orbán is not elected again.

"The tears of MAGA will flow like a bitter ocean if their role model Orbán loses," Wajahat Ali, writer, political commentator and host of the "Democracy-ish" podcast wrote on X.

"The palpable desperation of this… shows you how much MAGA have staked on Orbán being their guy in Europe," commentator Mike Galsworthy, Chair of European Movement UK and founder of Bylines Network and Scientists for EU, wrote on Bluesky.

"For Trump and Vance, Orbán must win, because there must only be one inevitable path of history, towards right-wing oligarchy and the end of democracy," Timothy Snyder, University of Toronto professor and modern European history expert, wrote on Bluesky.

"When Orbán loses, that exposes the weaknesses of MAGA: talk of peace but need for war; talk of prosperity but fleecing of the working classes; talk of the nation but dependence on an international oligarchical network," Snyder added.

"This. Viktor Orbán’s far-right extremist agenda is a model for MAGA. Trump and Vance are all-in on this election. If Orbán loses it would also be a political and ideological loss for the Trump regime and MAGA," Tom Joscelyn, Senior Fellow at Just Security, wrote on Bluesky.

"Why does Vance care whether Orban wins? Because if he loses, it will challenge the MAGA belief that history flows in only one direction," Anne Applebaum, staff writer at The Atlantic, wrote on Bluesky.

'Dreadful news': MAGA dismayed after European ally's 'tragic' election loss

Robert Davis
April 12, 2026 
RAW STORY


U.S. President Donald Trump attends UFC 327 at Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, U.S., April 11, 2026. Julia Demaree Nikhinson/Pool via REUTERS

Fans of President Donald Trump's Make America Great Again movement were dismayed on Sunday after one of their European allies suffered a stinging election defeat.

Hungarian autocrat Viktor Orbán conceded defeat to the opposition leader Péter Magyar on Sunday, ending his 16 years in power as Hungary's Prime Minister. Magyar's Tisza party is expected to take a supermajority in the country's legislature, and his victory was hailed as a relief to many across the U.S. and Europe.

However, fans of Trump's MAGA movement spun Orbán's defeat as a sign of Europe's continued decline. They shared their reactions on social media.

"Dreadful news for Hungary and the West," MAGA commentator Michael Knowles posted on X.

"Orban is out. A sad day for Western civilization," Paul Weston, a far-right British lawmaker, posted on X. "In 5 years' time, Budapest will look like every other ruined ex-European city. This makes our Ursula very happy of course."

"This is tragic," MAGA fan Wendy Patterson posted on X.

"The people fell for Magyer’s lies in a month or two people are going to be in an uproar," MAGA fan Tracie James posted on X.

"Hungary was nice while it lasted. Where do I go on vacations in Europe now without my date and my dog being at risk of being raped by a Moslem?" conservative strategist Joey Mannarino posted on X.

Ukraine loan, frozen funds: how could Orban’s ouster unblock EU?

ByAFP
April 13, 2026


Hungarian voters have ousted Viktor Orban after 16 years in power. Will his successor Peter Magyar make things easier for the EU? - Copyright AFP Ferenc ISZA
Max DELANY

After years of holdups and bitter horse trading, EU leaders breathed a resounding sigh of relief at Viktor Orban’s crushing defeat in Hungary’s elections.

From support for Ukraine to sanctions on Russia, the bete noire from Budapest repeatedly stalled some of the EU’s key initiatives.

Now, as his vanquisher Peter Magyar gears up to take power vowing to reset ties, the question is how quickly could these dossiers get unlocked?

Here are five areas to watch:



– 90 billion euros for Ukraine? –



Most pressing is a desperately needed 90-billion-euro loan for Ukraine that Orban took hostage as he made opposition to helping Kyiv a key campaign plank.

Orban’s veto — which he tied to a row with Ukraine over a damaged pipeline pumping Russian oil — enraged his EU counterparts as it came after he gave his initial green light.

Conservative Magyar is no major cheerleader for Kyiv, but if Orban doesn’t budge in his remaining weeks in office then unblocking the loan could be an easy way for the newcomer to win over hearts and minds in Brussels.

It will also take two tango and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky will have to play ball over the pipeline and soften his rhetoric as well.

“Sooner or later this has to resolve itself. Hopefully sooner,” said one EU diplomat, talking as others on condition of anonymity.



– Sanctions on Moscow –



In a similar vein, Magyar could also signal a shift in Budapest’s approach to Russia by backing a stalled package of sanctions on Moscow over the Ukraine war.

Orban — who maintained good ties with Russia’s Vladimir Putin despite the invasion — was slammed by critics as acting like a trojan horse for the Kremlin inside EU summits.

Hungary repeatedly held up previous rounds of punishment on Moscow and, as the electioneering heated up, Orban threw a spanner in the fresh round of sanctions.

By changing tune, Magyar can showcase a switch from Budapest.

That would then leave Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico — the other most Moscow-friendly leader in the EU — as the only holdout.



– Ukraine’s EU membership?



A longer term test will be over Ukraine’s EU membership push.

Orban was an implacable opponent of Kyiv’s bid and to the chagrin of Brussels and Ukraine was vetoing any progress.

Now he is on his way out, Magyar could show willing by greenlighting the opening of so-called negotiating “clusters” that EU officials insist Kyiv has long been ready for.

But Magyar, who has vowed a referendum on Ukraine’s membership, is no pushover and there are still plenty of steps down the road for the push to be held up.

“We shouldn’t expect Hungary to become super pro-Ukraine membership all of a sudden,” said a second senior EU diplomat.

Also, other countries cautious about Kyiv joining had hidden behind Orban’s opposition. They may now have to come out of the shadows more.

“The end of Hungarian obstruction to Ukraine’s accession does not mean it will accelerate,” summed up Sebastien Maillard from the Jacques Delors think tank.



– Frozen funds for Hungary –



It’s not just a one-way street for Magyar: he will be desperate to show that his promise to reset ties with Brussels can bring fast benefits to Hungary and its flagging economy.

The EU has frozen some 18 billion euros in funds earmarked for Budapest over Orban’s democratic backsliding, tackling graft and the treatment of LGBTQ issues.

Magyar has until the end of August to start pushing through reforms to try to secure the 10 billion euros left over from Covid recovery funds, or lose them for good.

Brussels could be willing to move fast on EU funds as it did for Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk after he took power a few years ago.

“It would give Magyar an enormous boost to say ‘look I’m coming back from Brussels with these funds,” said another EU diplomat.



– New mood? –



It may be a little harder to gauge, but EU officials will also be hoping for a more constructive atmosphere around the bloc’s top table.

While they’d learned to live with his grandstanding, Orban’s hardening stance towards the end — and proximity to Moscow — had seriously strained trust between leaders.

“I think everyone will welcome Magyar with renewed enthusiasm,” an EU official said.

That’s not saying that all will now be joy and harmony. EU leaders will still fight their corners tooth and nail, Magyar included.

“Magyar will want, as he did during the campaign, not to be caricatured as being a pawn of Brussels; do not expect him to say yes to everything,” said the second EU diplomat.


Thursday, April 02, 2026

France: Local elections create springboard for left division

Thursday 2 April 2026, by Léon Crémieux



Local elections were held in France on 15 March (first round) and 22 (second round). The confusion that has emerged, one year before the presidential election, is a sign of a fragmentation of the central bloc and the right, which is likely to produce a shift towards the far right and, in the face of this, a splintering of the forces of the Nouveau Front populaire (New Popular Front - NFP) which compromises the construction of a unitary alternative.

Each political party is now obsessed with preparing for the presidential and legislative elections which, barring any mishaps, will take place from April 2027. So, each political leader – and especially each future presidential candidate – impatient to put an end to the Macron years, has taken stock of these municipal elections by affirming, each with equal certainty, that they strengthen their political strategy to prepare for the major institutional deadline of 2027. These municipal elections were therefore obligatory, in their eyes, to be a “warm-up tour” and, following their results, each party wanted to read the augury of its own success in 2027. There has been a cacophony for a week, between and within many parties, with many contradictory insights into the results.

Specificity of local elections

It is nevertheless surprising to claim to draw a “lesson” from these elections – and even less the legitimization of a strategy for 2027 – because local elections have their own characteristics and, moreover, the results are largely mixed for both sides. There is not “one lesson” from the local elections.

In France, local elections (the election of local councils in municipalities) take place every six years, in each of the country’s 34,875 municipalities. These municipalities are the result of a division made during the French Revolution of 1789, essentially modelled on the map of Catholic parishes of the time. Since 1884, each has elected a municipal council, more or less numerous depending on the size of the municipality, and a mayor. In Europe, such a large number of municipalities is exceptional (the Spanish State, Germany and Italy have between 8,000 and 10,000 municipalities). But 32,000 of them have less than 3,500 inhabitants, in rural areas which now account for only 20.8% of the French population. 33,173 municipalities had their mayor elected in the first round on 15 March, so mainly in these rural areas where, two times out of three, there was only one “unlabelled” list.

Growing abstention

The clashes of political lists and their outcome therefore mainly concern municipalities with more than 3,500 inhabitants, which account for 69% of the population in 3,189 cities. First of all, it is important to highlight the constant increase in abstention, in all elections in general, and in local elections in particular. There were 42.7% abstentions this year, as turnout has been falling steadily for decades: they were less than 30% until 1997; in 2014 they were still only 37.8%. All elections in France (regional, European, local) now have an increasing abstention rate, around one in two voters. Only the presidential election has a higher turnout, but abstention is also steadily increasing, with more than one in four voters in 2022. Moreover, according to INSEE studies, more than 10% of the electorate is not, or does not believe itself to be, registered on the electoral rolls.

The only notable exception in this abstention curve was in 2024 the early parliamentary elections (which followed the dissolution decided on by Macron) and which resulted in the victory of the NFP lists: abstentions had fallen from 53% in 2022 to only 33% in the two rounds of this election. The broad mobilization present during this election was obviously out of step with the growing distance from the electoral processes. For these local elections, abstention was higher among young people aged 18 to 25 (56%), 25 to 34 (60%), the electorate having an income of less than €1250 (60%).

Erosion of PS and Republican results

The other specific point of these elections is the gap between the deep crisis of the traditional mainstream parties (the Parti socialiste (PS) and the Republicans) at the national level over the past 10 years and the maintenance of their presence in local institutions. But erosion is very present.

If we refer to the last twenty years, in towns with more than 30,000 inhabitants, the Republicans have gone from 102 town halls (120 with the “plural right”) in 2014 to 48 (97 with the “plural right”) in 2026. The same phenomenon applies to the PS, which has gone from 98 town halls (106 with the “plural left”) in 2008 to 30 in 2026 (52 with the “plural left”). The downward trend of the two old traditional parties is therefore obvious. Moreover, it should be noted that the “plural left” and “plural right” tend to be as important as the mayors affiliated to the Republicans or the PS.

For its part, the Macronist “central bloc” (Horizons, Renaissance, Modem) with 43 town halls maintains the weight that the centre-right already had in the 80s (Bayrou’s Modem or Borloo’s UDI). What is notable is that this “Macronist” current, since 2017, has not structured itself as a national party and has been unable to supplant the traditional parties at the local level.

In towns of more than 30,000 inhabitants, the RN won 12 municipalities and France Insoumise 6 (the French Communist Party (PCF) has 19 municipalites – 25 in 2014). So for these medium-sized and large cities, there is a slow but gradual loss for the Republicans and the Socialist Party.

The Republicans and the break-up of the “central bloc”

These elections take place in two rounds and the lists can merge with each other or remain if they have won more than 10% of the vote. Bruno Retailleau, president of the Republicans, was able to congratulate himself on the evening of the second round by declaring that “the Republicans and their allies have won the largest number of votes and elected representatives. We are still the leading local political force in France.” To invoke such figures, it is necessary to mobilize the results in all cities with more than 3,500 inhabitants where, in fact, the right has elected 1267 mayors and 8.7 million votes. The PS and the “plural left” only have 829 town halls, but 9.2 million votes.

The LR is struggling to hide a serious failure in the big cities, Paris, Lyon, Marseille. The Republicans can only have as trophies the election of three mayors of the “central bloc” which they support: Jean Luc Moudenc in Toulouse (a member of the small France audacieuse group, close to Edouard Philippe’s Horizons party), Thomas Cazenave in Bordeaux, a Macronist from the very beginning, and Antoine Armand in Annecy, both members of Renaissance (Macron’s party). The largest city led by a Republican is Clermont Ferrand, the 24th largest city in France, with 146,000 inhabitants.

Rachida Dati lost in Paris. Martine Vassal was largely outdistanced by the RN in Marseille and a union around the socialist Benoit Payan. There was also a failure in Lyon where Jean Michel Aulas, former president of the Olympique Lyonnais football club, supported by the entire right, was defeated by the outgoing Green mayor Grégory Doucet, whose list had merged with that of LFI. Finally, in Nice, while the Macronist Estrosi was officially supported by LR, Retailleau clearly stated his refusal to support him, sending him back to back with Éric Ciotti, former president of the LR, defector to the far right and now allied with the RN with his new small party UDR. Several LR elected officials from the South-East, such as the mayor of Cannes, have clearly shown their support for Ciotti.

So Retailleau’s triumphalist discourse on “LR being the biggest party in France” (LR gathered 4.8% in the 2022 presidential election and 4.3% in the 2024 parliamentary elections) serves the LR leadership to justify the forward march announced to the party’s Political Bureau: the designation of an LR candidate (either Retailleau directly, or through an internal primary), following this, the party would perhaps propose a common primary for LR and the parties of the central bloc (Renaissance and Horizons). This position is opposed to that of the party’s other main leader, Laurent Wauquiez, who would clearly like to open up to a primary integrating the far-right Reconquête (Knafo/Zemmour) party, a small party that is a member of the ENS group in the European Parliament with the German AfD and the anti-Semites and anti-Roma of the Hungarian MHM.

The real lesson concerning the LR is that this party, already heavily weakened, comes out of these elections clearly fragmented, underestimating the low electoral weight of their party for a presidential election, in the face of Horizons, Edouard Philippe and the remnants of Renaissance on the one hand, and the RN on the other. All this for an organization that is increasingly porous to the themes of the RN and to alliances with the far right. Being a substitute for an Edouard Philippe candidacy or fraying in the face of the RN are the two risks that threaten LR, which nevertheless sees itself as a rallying point with the “central bloc” of the Macronists.

In this camp of the Macronist centre-right and the right, there are nearly a dozen contenders, declared or not, for the presidential election, all wanting (there are no women candidates for the moment in this current) to turn the page on Macron, hoping to cover the same political space that had allowed the surprise victory, in 2017, by Emmanuel Macron. In any case, the central bloc and the right have not yet found the means not to run in 2027.

Rassemblement national

The Rassemblement national did not “turn the table upside down” in these local elections, but with its ally the UDR of Éric Ciotti, it won 57 town halls in the 3,060 cities with more than 3,500 inhabitants, compared to 9 in 2020. Its local weight is still derisory compared to its weight in national elections, but it has reached a real level. The victory in Nice is symbolic, but has difficulty erasing the failure suffered in Marseille and Toulon where a very good score in the first round gave hope of a victory. The RN came up against a front from the right in Toulon and a front from the left in Marseille. Only one RN elected official remains in a city of more than 100,000 inhabitants, Louis Aliot in Perpignan.

However, the RN is making progress in its institutional anchoring, particularly in the Var and the Nord region with several medium-sized municipalities won and now these results may allow the election of several senators. [1] This is one more step in a normalization where the party is nibbling away at votes on the right, the most spectacular image being the place taken by its candidate in Marseille, Frank Alisio, gathering 35% of the vote in the first round, three times more than the LR candidate, Martine Vassal, who appeared to be the favourite in the polls a few months before the election.

All in all, here again, despite everything, these results show the specificity of the local elections and the gap between the real results and the comments of Jordan Bardella, who presented them as “the expression of a profound shift (...) the end of an old world at the end of its rope”. The RN continues its race towards the presidential election with Bardella or Le Pen, if she is not declared ineligible this summer. The municipal elections have shown both the banalisation of this neo-fascist party (and the banalisation also assumed by the right of the small Reconquête party, of Sarah Knafo and Éric Zemmour) and the growing porosity of the electoral base of the hard right and the far right.

Splintering of the NFP

The real problem manifested by these municipal elections is the taking of a further step in the fragmentation of the components of the Nouveau front Populaire (NFP). Local elections have always been the most solid foundation, the network of institutional political life in France (it is essentially the municipal councillors who elect the Senate), and each traditional party has always wanted to “take care” of its presence at this level. La France Insoumise (LFI) had, until then, not been concerned about its municipal presence. After its victory on the left with the New Ecological and Social Popular Union (NUPES) in 2022, LFI had tried to negotiate agreements with its socialist, ecologist and PCF partners to obtain at least one senatorial position in the elections of the same year. Its weak weight in the municipal councils and a shopkeeper logic of the leaders of its allied parties led to a refusal and the continued eviction of LFI from the Senate.

In 2020, LFI only had two mayors in cities with more than 5,000 inhabitants. Beyond this first reason to have a strong influence in 2026, the announced strategy of LFI was to make these elections a springboard for the candidacy of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in 2027. The consequence was the choice to present more than 500 LFI-labelled lists in all cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants and in 80% of cities with more than 30,000 inhabitants, sticking to the areas where the presidential and parliamentary elections had given the best results. It was therefore clearly a choice of apparatus, but also linked to a strategy for 2027 aimed at making the most of the balance of power to impose itself as having the only candidate who could pass the first round. It was therefore out of the question for Mélenchon to present NFP lists again. LFI’s campaigns were, on radical bases taking up the NFP’s program, an affirmation without a unitary approach.

For the PS, the choice was diametrically opposed. To try to rely on the remaining strength of this party at the level of its local presence to give it back national visibility and build a sufficient balance of power, either for an autonomous socialist candidacy in 2027 (with the possibility of a choice of the PS-Place publique with Raphaël Gluksmann), or to participate in a primary of the left with the other components of the NFP (without Mélenchon) as was proposed in Tours in January 2026 by a joint announcement by Olivier Faure, Marine Tondelier, Clémentine Autain, François Ruffin.

In parallel with these preparations, the weeks leading up to the local elections saw the multiplication of centrifugal forces. Alongside the system set up by LFI, the rest of the NFP parties have built alliances of variable geometry, according to local configurations. But while the Ecologists and the PCF left the door open to alliances with LFI against the right, the leadership of the PS, under pressure from the right of the party (Jérôme Guedj and François Hollande, in particular), affirmed “no national agreement in the second round with la France Insoumise”, rejecting LFI as part of the “respectable” left (while leaving the possibility of local agreements quietly). This came after the leaders of the PS multiplied the denunciations of LFI, resuming the despicable campaign of the right after the death of the neo-Nazi Quentin Deranque and the multiplication of the denunciation of Mélenchon as an anti-Semite.

La France insoumise semblait donc mise sur la touche de ces élections et la physionomie du reste de la gauche unie semblait donner du crédit aux partisans d’une recomposition d’une unité de la gauche « à l’ancienne » sous domination sociale-démocrate. Malgré tout, des dynamiques militantes unitaires se sont construites, par exemple à Saint-Denis ou à Toulouse.
The right wing of the party thus seemed to have sealed the party line, forcing Faure to close the page on the NFP and even to rule out an open primary on the left with forces like the Greens and Après (which had rejected the PS’s line in the Assembly of support for the budgets of the Lecornu governments and had voted for censure several times). Marseille and Paris seemed to represent this line of unity of the NFP without LFI since the unity of all the other components (Ecologists, PCF and Après) was achieved behind Emmanuel Grégoire in Paris and Benoit Payan in Marseille.

La France Insoumise therefore seemed to be sidelined in these elections and the physiognomy of the rest of the United Left seemed to give credence to the supporters of a recomposition of an “old-fashioned” left-wing unity under social democratic domination. Despite everything, unitary activist dynamics have been built, for example in Saint-Denis or Toulouse.

The results of the first round of the elections and the days that followed have belied this scenario. If the PS had garnered good results, the spectacular breakthrough came from LFI, which won Saint-Denis, the largest municipality in the Paris region, was in a clear position to win in Roubaix, and came out as head of the left in Toulouse, in particular. The lists made more than 10% in 60% of the suburban municipalities, in 96 cities. These very good local results reduced the press campaign of reaction to nothing and made LFI appear as a local popular force, an essential component of the left.

LFI, reversing its position of isolation from the first round, nationally proposed the merger with the other lists of the left to create an “anti-fascist front2, in practice to defeat the right. Despite the decision of the PS leadership, PS/LFI agreements multiplied in many cities, such as Toulouse, Nantes, Tulle, Limoges, Clermont-Ferrand, signed in several cases by socialists close to Hollande and Guedj, as in Tulles and Nantes. The entire campaign and the positioning of the PS seemed to collapse like a house of cards and the unity of the left was to be rebuilt. But above all, the PS confused its own voters, to whom most of the party’s leaders had repeated that it was impossible to ally with Mélenchon’s party. In Paris and Marseille, the heads of the socialist lists refused to merge the lists. In Marseille, this refusal seemed incomprehensible when the list of the socialist Benoit Payan was only ahead of that of the RN by 1.6%, that the LFI list had gathered 11.94% and that, in any case, many voters of the LR candidate (12.41%) would turn to the RN in the second round, giving the mayoralty to the far right. Despite the sectarian refusal of Benoit Payan, LFI had the intelligence to prefer to withdraw its list, even without a merger, rather than offer the city to the RN.

But the most serious thing is obviously that, in total, the divisions of the first round campaign, the surge of a hateful campaign against LFI and a strong mobilization of the right will have prevented the victory of the LFI candidate at the head of the merged lists in Toulouse and Limoges and a real percentage of PS voters will not have followed the movement. It should be noted that it was only after the first round, in Toulouse for example, that the unions (CGT, FSU, Solidaires) called for a vote for the merged list on the left. These mergers and the voluntary withdrawal of LFI in Marseille have led to victories on the left as well as in Nantes and Lyon. But the majority of the merged LFI/PS lists were defeated, allowing a new offensive within the PS to block any approach to unity on the left.

In total, LFI won its bet of local implantation by winning the elections in 8 cities, including 7 with more than 30,000 inhabitants, mainly in the working-class suburbs of the Paris region, in the North and around Lyon. However, this campaign will have put the left on a track that can only derail it in 2027. The main parties of the left see their action in the coming months only on the institutional terrain, with the electoral preparation of 2027, without any joint campaign on social or democratic issues. In addition, the fragmentation of the left-wing parties has largely slowed down the construction of unitary approaches with the social and trade union movement. The difference with June/July 2024 is obvious from this point of view. On the electoral question, a sad symmetrical game is being played. Olivier Faure has just publicly rejected “any national agreement between the PS and LFI for the presidential and legislative elections”. A statement unimaginable two years ago and demoralizing for tens of thousands of activists of the social and trade union movement who see the arrival of the RN in 2027. On the side of la France Insoumise, all the statements that followed the second round rule out any reference to the NFP, detailing the party’s march towards the presidential election and calling on left-wing currents to join it without proposing any common approach by the NFP parties.

The way therefore seems closed to the construction of a unity on the left on the basis of a break with austerity policies and no social lever appears for the moment that can reverse the centrifugal dynamics, while the popular classes are still suffering new attacks with the increase in the cost of living due to speculation on oil products and in the background, The climate, ecological, health and social crises continue to worsen, boosted in particular by the wars in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, inter-imperialist rivalries and the arms race. It is therefore an imperative necessity, in the face of the programmed victory of Bardella/Le Pen, to build such a unitary alternative of a rupture with neoliberal capitalist policies, a construction that would require the united mobilization of all the forces of the workers’ and democratic movement, as was achieved in 2024, barely two years ago.

Source: Viento Sur

Footnotes

[1The Senate has 348 seats. It is elected by indirect suffrage by 162,000 grand electors, 95% of whom are delegates from municipal councils, plus other regional elected officials, deputies and senators.