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Monday, December 01, 2025

The Fugitive Oligarch, The Cryptocurrency, And A ‘Wild’ Kremlin-Blessed Sanctions Evasion Scheme – Analysis




The Russian State Financial Network Behind A7A5: The A7A5 stablecoin is backed by a network of Russian state-owned banks, with Promsvyazbank (controlled by former spy chief Mikhail Fradkov's son) holding ruble reserves for the token. The scheme involves sanctioned entities including crypto exchanges Garantex and Grinex, and appears designed to facilitate cross-border payments while circumventing international sanctions. Graphic: RFE/RL Graphics, Source: Media reports


December 2, 2025 
RFE RL
By Mike Eckel and Ernist Nurmatov

What do a fugitive Moldovan tycoon and a Kyrgyz-based cryptocurrency have to do with Russia’s efforts to evade Western war sanctions and build an entirely new financial system separate from the West?

Russian President Vladimir Putin provided a clue in early September when he attended a virtual ribbon-cutting ceremony for the opening of a financial services company’s new branch in the Pacific port city of Vladivostok.

It’s not the type of event Putin typically attends. Newly launched battleships? Yes. Kremlin medal-award ceremonies? Yes. Branch openings? Not so much.

But the company, A7 LLC, is not your typical financial services firm.

Its top executives include Ilan Shor, a fugitive oligarch implicated in what’s been called the “theft of the century”: a scandal involving more than $1 billion stolen from Moldova, one of the poorest countries in Europe. His co-executive heads Russia’s eighth-largest bank, closely tied to Russia’s military-industrial complex — and happens to be the son of a former Russian prime minister and former intelligence director.



In short speeches to Putin via video link, the two boasted of how much money their company had handled in the 11 months since A7’s establishment: more than 7 trillion rubles ($12.4 billion).

If true, that’s a lot of money: as much as 12 percent of the foreign trade of all Russian businesses taken together, according to one calculation.

And then there’s the cryptocurrency A7 launched in January.

Called A7A5, the coin recorded $41.2 billion in total transfers by July; by August, it was up to $51.2 billion. As of November, A7A5 — which is the world’s first ruble-pegged stablecoin — had reported some $79 billion in volume since its launch, according to Chainanalysis, a New York-based firm that has done extensive research on A7.

“That is a phenomenal amount of money. That is enormous, for an organization that didn’t exist a year ago,” said Elise Thomas, an Australian researcher and author of multiple reports by the Center for Information Resilience, a London-based NGO that focuses on rights abuses and war crimes. “That’s wild. The scale of it is really significant.”

“The personal involvement of Putin in opening their Vladivostok office, that shocked me as well, that he was sort of willing to personally put his face in connection with the opening of A7,” she said in an interview.

With a thread running from Moldova to the glittery skyscrapers of Moscow’s Federation Tower to Kyrgyzstan, whose leaders want the small Central Asian country to be a mecca for crypto innovation, A7A5, Western and Moldovan officials say, is key to the Kremlin’s efforts to blunt Western sanctions imposed following Moscow’s 2022 all-out invasion of Ukraine.

“The A7A5 token…is a unique sanctions evasion tool,” said Andrew Fierman, head of national security intelligence at Chainanalysis.

And not just sanctions evasion. The Kremlin’s wider goal is to build a parallel financial system, experts say, outside the existing networks where Western banks and the US dollar dominate.

“It’s a big deal because of who Ilan Shor is, and the fact this is designed…to try to operate outside of the reach and influence of the US-dollar denominated, traditional financial systems,” said Carole House, who has served as White House national security council adviser for cybersecurity policy.

“It’s wild to see that kind of support coming directly from the government, but also not surprising given the objectives they want, to offset the impact of sanctions,” she said.

The efforts have not gone totally unnoticed in the West.

On October 23, the European Union announced sanctions against A7A5, A7, and related companies, calling the cryptocurrency “a prominent tool for financing activities supporting [Russia’s ] war of aggression.”

Neither A7 nor A7A5 responded to e-mails sent by RFE/RL seeking comment. Shor did not respond to an interview request.
A Central Asian Mecca For Crypto

Since at least 2021, the government in Bishkek has tried to turn Kyrgyzstan into a cryptocurrency hub, seeking to attract investors, miners, and exchanges. As of 2025, it reported at least 13 crypto exchanges registered, and it has laid the groundwork for a national cryptocurrency called USDKG.

Corporate registry documents obtained by RFE/RL from the Kyrgyz Justice Ministry show that the issuer of the A7A5 stablecoin is a Kyrgyz company called Old Vector, which was first registered in December 2024. The documents also show that the company providing the coin to Old Vector is A7-Kyrgyzstan LLC.

Between January and July, the registered headquarters for Old Vector was a small, ramshackle house surrounded by newer, more upscale buildings and single-family homes.

In July, when RFE/RL reporters visited the house, which is set back from the dirt road behind a rusting blue metal fence and concrete blocks, two young boys who answered the door said they were unaware of any company that was registered at their address. A next-door neighbor said there was no company by that name at that address.

About a month later, Old Vector’s corporate headquarters moved to a different address on the outskirts of Bishkek, a multistory building called South Park made up mainly of apartments.

A7 itself has registered a number of interrelated companies in Bishkek, according to Justice Ministry documents obtained by RFE/RL.

A7-Kyrgyzstan, which was registered on January 17, is housed on the upper floors of a complex that used to be a major shopping center. RFE/RL reporters tried to access the floor where the offices were reported to be, but security guards blocked them from entering.

Another Shor-related entity called Evrazia has also registered trademarks for several similarly named companies in Bishkek. Established in Moscow as a nonprofit organization, Evrazia has been implicated in a range of activities aimed at destabilizing elections in Moldova. The European Union hit Evrazia with sanctions in October 2024.

Though launched in January, A7A5 itself did not begin trading publicly until February, when it appeared on a Moscow cryptocurrency exchange called Garantex.

“Garantex had drawn scrutiny for years from Western law enforcement, which alleged it served as a conduit for funds used in money laundering, ransomware, computer hacking, and sanctions violations. The exchange was popular because, among other things, it allowed an easy way to exchange cryptocurrencies for more popular stablecoins like USDT, which is pegged to the dollar, making it easier to cash out for less volatile currencies.

In 2022, the US Treasury Department hit Garantex with financial sanctions. But it wasn’t until three years later that the exchange shuttered operations after two of Garantex’s principal operators were indicted by a US grand jury for money laundering. US authorities seized several Garantex websites. German and Finnish agencies confiscated servers hosting Garantex’s operations. More than $26 million in cryptocurrencies that officials said was used for money laundering was also seized by the US Secret Service.

In the weeks immediately preceding and following the March 2025 seizure, analysts said billions of A7A5 coins were shifted away from Garantex to a new exchange called Grinex, which was first registered in Kyrgyzstan the previous December. The vast majority of A7A5’s transactions now occur on Grinex and a smaller exchange called Meer.kg.

The connection between Grinex and A7 is unclear. A Kyrgyz man named in Justice Ministry filings as the founder of Grinex refused to comment to RFE/RL on whether his company is related to the crypto exchange of the same name.

US financial investigators, however, say Grinex was created specifically to help traders whose funds were frozen when Garantex was shut down recoup their money — using A7A5.
A Tug-Of-War In Chisinau

Moldova has been at the center of a tug-of-war between Europe and Russia for years.

The 2020 election of Maia Sandu, a Western-trained economist who worked at the World Bank, tilted the scales to the West. Shor wants to tip the scales back toward Russia.

In 2014, Moldova was roiled by a massive bank fraud that resulted in more than $1 billion being siphoned out of the country — nearly one-eighth of its gross domestic product (GDP). Authorities accused Shor of being the mastermind of the “theft of the century” and he fled the country in 2019, splitting his time between Israel, then Moscow. He was sentenced in absentia to 15 years in prison in 2023 by a Chisinau court; his eponymous political party has been banned.

Over at least three election campaigns, Moldovan and Western officials say Shor has repeatedly sought to buy votes, spread disinformation, and even recruited and trained young Moldovans to stoke unrest and provoke police. Among the schemes officials say they uncovered involved money transfers to Moldovans using bank cards issued by Promsvyazbank, the state-owned Russian bank that Shor has partnered with.

Shor worked with “Russian individuals to create a political alliance to control Moldova’s parliament, which would then support several pieces of legislation in the interests of the Russian Federation,” the US Treasury Department said in October 2022, when he was first sanctioned.

In the run-up to last year’s presidential election, Moldovan authorities accused Shor of orchestrating a scheme that funneled more than $15 million from Russian banks to the accounts of more than 130,000 Moldovan citizens.

The scheme included sending pre-loaded bank cards, using the Russian “Mir” card payment system, to people who could travel to the breakaway Transdniester region to withdraw cash. Officially part of Moldova, Transdniester operates in a legal twilight zone, with close economic ties to Moscow.

Shor’s Moscow-based nonprofit group Evrazia also recruited hundreds of young Moldovans to participate in an outreach program, offering free trips to Russia, fine dining, and a shot at millions of rubles in grants.

Moldova’s prime minister later said Russian agents spent nearly $220 million in total trying to influence the 2024 vote, which Sandu won with about 55 percent of ballots cast. A simultaneous referendum asking Moldovans about joining the European Union passed but was far closer than predicted.

Days before September’s parliamentary elections, Moldovan authorities said they had uncovered another destabilization campaign and conducted raids at scores of locations around the country, arresting more than 70 people. Some of those arrested had allegedly traveled to Bosnian and Serbian camps for training to confront and provoke police. The campaign, Moldovan authorities said, used “the Shor group’s network and external resources.”

“The sanctions evasion and the [Moldovan] political interference, I don’t think they are directly connected,” Thomas said. “I think the sanctions evasion is the main game at the moment. Having said that, obviously, Shor has significant personal stakes in Moldova and probably cares about it a lot at a personal level.”

“What Shor’s doing, it’s not just a Moldovan problem,” said one Moldovan official who spoke on condition that he not be named. “He provides Russia with a service, to evade sanctions, and he makes money off of it.”

Promsvyazbank did not respond to messages seeking comment.
‘An Infrastructure Resilient To Any External Influences’

Since around 2022, much of Russia’s banking system has been isolated from Western financial networks, in response to the Ukraine war. The banking sector has been cut off from SWIFT, the messaging system that is essential for global banking operations, while Visa and Mastercard have cut off Russia from their payment systems and Western banks have frozen Russian government accounts.

As a result, Russian authorities have tried to build a parallel financial system. Other countries have signaled support for the effort, including China, Brazil, India, and other major economies.

“The development of the A7A5 token appears to be the next logical step in Russia’s efforts to develop alternative payment systems to circumvent sanctions,” Fierman said.

As Putin watched at the September 4 event in Vladivostok, Shor appeared nervous, shifting from side to side as he described the goals of the “financial hub” called the Far Eastern International Financial and Settlement Center.

“To date, in 10 months of operation, we have conducted more than 7.5 trillion rubles worth of transactions,” he said. “Today, given that more than 50 percent of all our settlements are made to Asian countries, we have decided to open a financial hub here.”

Standing alongside Shor was his co-executive: Pyotr Fradkov, who has headed the Moscow-based Promsvyazbank since 2018. His father is Mikhail Fradkov, Putin’s prime minister from 2004-2007 and director of the Foreign Intelligence Service for nine years after that.

Known as PSB, Promsvyazbank was nationalized by the Russian government that same year amid a banking crisis and repurposed to serve Russia’s growing military industrial sector. In 2022, PSB was hit by Treasury sanctions, as was Pyotr Fradkov.

Promsvyazbank holds 49 percent of A7. The rubles the A7A5 coin is pegged to, making it a stablecoin, are deposits held by the bank.

A7 is housed in the gleaming new modern skyscrapers of Moscow’s Federation Tower — the same location Garantex was registered at, along with several companies alleged to be tied to notorious ransomware schemes.

A7 is also making its own push to become a “brick-and-mortar” company by opening up branches for customers to make deposits, withdraw cash, trade cryptocurrencies, and make cross-border payments. Aside from Moscow and Vladivostok, the company says it is setting up branches in cities abroad such as Harare, Zimbabwe, and Lagos, Nigeria.

In July, A7 announced that PSB clients would be able to buy A7A5 tokens using PSB bank cards.

That same month, the European Union targeted A7 for the first time, saying it was “linked to efforts to influence the presidential elections and the 2024 constitutional referendum on EU accession.”

Around the same time, the number of A7A5 coins in circulation surged by more than 240 percent, according to Elliptic, an analytics firm, with over $1 billion in daily transfers of A7A5.

Chinese companies and individuals are reported to be the largest user of A7 payment platforms to date, according to corporate marketing documents published online and highlighted by the Center for Information Resilience.

Western authorities are struggling to keep up.

In mid-August, about three weeks before Shor and Fradkov appeared in the video conference with Putin, US and British authorities hit A7 and more than a half dozen interrelated companies, including Grinex and Old Vector, with more sanctions.

A month later, however, A7A5’s total market capitalization — essentially, the value of all the coins in circulation — skyrocketed by nearly 250 percent, making it the largest stablecoin not pegged to the US dollar.

“We have already proven that a national digital currency can be not only an alternative to the dollar but also a driver of global change,” A7A5 said in a triumphant post to Telegram.

The European Union then responded on October 23 with more sanctions targeting Russian-linked crypto assets and its second round targeting A7.

In a post to Telegram, A7A5 mocked the announcement.

“What will this change? Nothing!” the company said. “Because from the very beginning, we built an infrastructure that was resilient to any external influences and restrictions.”


Senior International Correspondent Mike Eckel reported from Chisinau and Prague. RFE/RL Kygyz Service Correspondent Ernist Nurmatov reported from Bishkek.



RFE RL

RFE/RL journalists report the news in 21 countries where a free press is banned by the government or not fully established.


Tuesday, November 25, 2025

US sanctions push Serbia’s only refinery toward shutdown

US sanctions push Serbia’s only refinery toward shutdown
NIS' Pancevo refinery has entered “warm circulation”, a reduced operating mode ahead of a full shutdown. / NIS
By Tatyana Kekic in Belgrade November 25, 2025

Serbia’s sole oil refinery could halt operations within days unless Washington grants a new licence to allow majority Russian-owned NIS to continue processing crude, President Aleksandar Vucic told the public on November 25.

Serbia is awaiting a decision from the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on a licence for operations at the refinery after US sanctions on NIS took effect on October 9 due to the company’s majority Russian ownership. NIS previously said it could process crude only until November 25.

Vucic said that the Pancevo refinery had entered “warm circulation”, a reduced operating mode ahead of a full shutdown. “It’s not shut down yet, but it’s at a lower level of operation. We still have four days until the refinery is completely shut down if the licence is not approved by the US government,” he said in a special address.

Vucic said Belgrade had expected approval but now believes Washington wants “to see more things” before deciding. The sanctions have so far had limited impact on consumers, with no fuel shortages or queues reported at NIS petrol stations, though customers have been required to pay in cash or with local Dina cards.

Energy Minister Dubravka Dedović Handanovic met representatives of MOL, EKO and OMV on November 24 to discuss supply security. The government claimed there was “no reason for concern”, citing adequate petroleum product stocks and incoming deliveries, including 20,000 tonnes of Euro diesel and 38,000 tonnes of gasoline for mandatory state reserves in December and January.

Washington has insisted on a full Russian exit from NIS. Moscow has reportedly agreed to sell its 56.15% stake, currently held by its subsidiaries Gazprom Neft and a St Petersburg-based firm called Intelligence. Vucic said Russia was in talks with three potential buyers; Serbian media have speculated that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and Hungary’s MOL are among those interested.

NIS filed a fresh licence request with OFAC on November 18 seeking permission to maintain normal operations at the Pancevo refinery while negotiations continue.

The uncertainty over the refinery’s future comes as the US, Ukraine and Russia engage in discussions on a new peace framework that could lead to a ceasefire in the nearly four-year-old conflict. Analysts say any link between sanctions relief and a peace deal could complicate Moscow’s willingness to sell its overseas assets.

Friday, November 14, 2025

AI Jesus? New Technologies, New Dilemmas For Church Leaders – Analysis



Tumanko, the chatbot created by the Serbian Orthodox Tuman monastery. Photo: manastirtumane.org

November 15, 2025 
 Balkan Insight
By Andreja Bogdanovski


Churches in southeast Europe are under growing pressure to address the theological and practical issues raised by the use of artificial intelligence in religion.

When the 14th century Tuman Orthodox monastery in eastern Serbia unveiled its own chatbot, Tumanko, in September, the priest-like figure dressed in a black robe and holding a smartphone attracted over 800,000 interactions in the first 24 hours, causing its servers to crash.

Tumanko is limited to providing information about the church and its history, but others are going further.

In October, the Metropolis of Nea Ionia in Athens became the first major Church institution to release a fully endorsed chatbot – called LOGOS – offering guidance grounded in Orthodox tradition.

Its chief creator, Athanasios Davalas at HERON ICT Lab, describes LOGOS as “a careful theological assistant”, used most often by those with questions about religious rites and Orthodox history.

LOGOS, Davalas told BIRN, was created to address the “very real pastoral need” of a growing number of people seeking faith-related answers online but who too often encounter generalised, vague and misleading content.

“LOGOS was never meant to replace spiritual guidance, but to offer reliable support grounded in Church teaching,” he said.

But as AI tools proliferate, there is growing pressure on churches in southeast Europe to address the theological and practical aspects of AI use while integrating and supervising these tools within their structures.
Faith powered by ChatGPT

According to Davalas, LOGOS is programmed to respond only with content from officially recognised Orthodox sources, including Scripture, synodal decisions, liturgical texts, and materials previously vetted by the Theological Team of the Metropolis.

“It is explicitly forbidden to answer doctrinal questions based on general internet knowledge or non-Orthodox interpretations,” he said.

Whether an app receives official endorsement from the relevant Church is increasingly becoming a key indicator of legitimacy at launch.

In Russia, for example, a social-networking app called Zosima after a 6th-century saint, and designed for the Russian Orthodox faithful, so far lacks the formal endorsement of the Russian Orthodox Church. Its launch has raised privacy concerns and drew scrutiny for its ability to request highly sensitive personal data including passport details, home address and employment information.

LOGOS, on the other hand, has been developed in partnership with the Holy Metropolis of Nea Ionia, Filadelfia, Heraklion and Chalcedon, which selected the theological reference materials, set content boundaries and doctrinal criteria.

According to its developer, LOGOS is not designed to respond to confessions, political topics, or divisive issues.

Orthodox leaders nevertheless remain cautious about the religious implications of AI.

The impact of new technologies on society was the focus of a conference held in Thessaloniki at the end of September, coinciding with the centenary celebrations of Theologia, the academic journal of the Holy Synod of the Church of Greece, which was attended by theologians and religious leaders, including several Orthodox Patriarchs.

While acknowledging AI’s potential benefits, several church leaders placed greater emphasis on the dangers it might pose.

The Patriarch of Georgia, Ilia II, warned that AI holds the power to lead the world “into an abyss”, while the Bulgarian Patriarch Daniil spoke against the “technologisation of life”.

“We must not let artificial intelligence create the illusion that it can replace or eliminate prayer and asceticism,” Daniil said.

“We must never forget that no matter how much artificial intelligence develops or upgrades, it can never acquire what the Fathers call the ‘mind of Christ.’ The mind receives the gift of grace, within prayerful, Eucharistic and sacramental communion with Christ.”

Technology should be seen as a “gift from God to humanity”, Romanian Patriarch Daniel said; it becomes “problematic when it no longer serves humanity but tends to replace it”.
Is technology ‘spiritually neutral’?

In August last year, an AI-powered Jesus was installed in a confession box in a Catholic church in Lucerne, Switzerland, as part of a years-long collaboration with a local university research lab on immersive reality.

Over a two-month period, more than 1,000 people took the opportunity to interact with the avatar; some engaged deeply on issues of love, war and suffering.

There have been examples elsewhere of AI tools being used to write sermons or bring religious literature, such as the Bible, closer to believers.

In Bulgaria, Archimandrite Nicanor, abbot of the Tsarnogorsky Orthodox monastery, which runs its own agricultural farm in western Bulgaria, said there was no reason to believe that technology can replace “the real spiritual life”.

Technology, he told BIRN, is “spiritually neutral”.

“We must never forget that these are just machines,” Archimandrite Nicanor said. “There is no intelligence or personality behind artificial intelligence. It is simply a sophisticated computer, the essence of which is based on hardware and electrical impulses. There is no life there, just as there is no life in a garden shovel.”

Emphasising the role that the Orthodox church has in AI and digital transformation, Archimandrite Nicanor added: “The Orthodox Church, in order not to become a sect, must educate its followers to have a correct attitude towards the material world around us, and towards digital technologies and AI.”
Orthodoxy in the age of the algorithm

Whether rapidly evolving AI technology is truly neutral in today’s world, where it intersects with social media algorithms, is a topic of growing concern in certain corners of Orthodoxy.

At the centre of the debate in the United States is the power of algorithms that curate and deliver content to users mainly through social media feeds. Some scholars point out that, increasingly, the authority in the online world of religion does not come from the priest or bishops but through viral videos and influencers.

An increasing number of ‘Orthodox influencers’ are gaining popularity by exploiting divisive issues, often aligning with right-wing and Christian nationalist narratives, thereby reshaping Orthodox identities online.

Orthodox Christian culture in US is evolving “due to algorithmically driven consumer-based content in which AI is used to drive optimisation”, said Sarah Riccardi-Swartz, an assistant professor of religion and anthropology at Northeastern University, Boston.

Riccardi-Swartz told BIRN that the Orthodox Church must step up and address how digital technologies are “transforming Orthodox sociality, authority, education, and theological values”.

She pointed to an informal survey carried out by the Orthodox Church in America in 2023, specifically targeting recent US converts to Orthodoxy and concluding that encountering Orthodoxy online has been a significant pull factor.

“Young men are finding Orthodoxy through social media content creators,” Riccardi-Swartz said, underscoring that many of these content creators are “often politically far right and produce content that is misogynistic, racist, and antisemitic”.



Balkan Insight

The Balkan Insight (formerly the Balkin Investigative Reporting Network, BIRN) is a close group of editors and trainers that enables journalists in the region to produce in-depth analytical and investigative journalism on complex political, economic and social themes. BIRN emerged from the Balkan programme of the Institute for War & Peace Reporting, IWPR, in 2005. The original IWPR Balkans team was mandated to localise that programme and make it sustainable, in light of changing realities in the region and the maturity of the IWPR intervention. Since then, its work in publishing, media training and public debate activities has become synonymous with quality, reliability and impartiality. A fully-independent and local network, it is now developing as an efficient and self-sustainable regional institution to enhance the capacity for journalism that pushes for public debate on European-oriented political and economic reform.



KUSHNER REALTY CONDOS

Leaked documents show Belgrade signed secret deal with Kushner to redevelop protected site

Leaked documents show Belgrade signed secret deal with Kushner to redevelop protected site
A company owned by Jared Kushner, son-in-law of US President Donald Trump, plans to redevelop the former General Staff headquarters in central Belgrade.
By Tatyana Kekic in Belgrade November 14, 2025

Serbia’s government quietly signed a joint venture last year with a company owned by Jared Kushner, son-in-law of US President Donald Trump, to redevelop the former General Staff headquarters in central Belgrade, according to documents published by Serbian investigative weekly Radar on November 13.

The leaked 2024 investment agreement shows that Kushner’s firm, Atlantic Incubation Partners LLC, would hold a 77.5% stake in the venture, with the Serbian state retaining 22.5%. The project foresees a luxury hotel, residential units and a museum on the site of the Yugoslav army headquarters, which was bombed by Nato in 1999 and since protected as a cultural landmark.

Under the deal, Serbia committed to demolish all existing buildings and remove the site’s protected heritage status “in a manner satisfactory” to Kushner’s company. The land is to be leased to the US developer free of charge for 99 years, with the option to convert the lease into ownership. If Serbia fails to meet its obligations by May 2026, the company may terminate the contract “at its discretion” and claim millions of euros in damages, the documents show.

The Serbian government has not disputed the authenticity of the published agreement, which was kept from the public until Radar made it available this week. The revelations have intensified criticism of a special law passed by parliament on November 7 that fast-tracks redevelopment of the site as a “project of national importance”.

The lex specialis allows authorities to bypass planning and regulatory procedures that had stalled the project earlier this year, when prosecutors opened an investigation into whether documents used to strip the complex of its protected status had been forged. Goran Vasić, acting head of Serbia’s cultural heritage institute, was arrested in connection with the case; the probe is ongoing.

The parliamentary vote — 130 in favour and 40 against — took place amid nationwide demonstrations led by students and activists protesting corruption, weakening institutions and what they see as government cronyism. This week, demonstrators formed a human chain around the bomb-damaged complex, drawing a symbolic red line in an effort to halt what they call the “sell-off” of one of Belgrade’s most important modernist sites, designed by architect Nikola Dobrović.

Opposition lawmakers condemned the lex specialis, saying it overrides urban planning rules and public interest. Ivana Rokvić of the People’s Movement of Serbia compared the decision to other controversial state-backed developments, including Belgrade Waterfront, arguing the government was trading “a symbol of history and sacrifice” for political favour “and a little bit of Trump’s mercy”.

The project is also seen as Belgrade’s attempt to curry favour with Washington after the US imposed sanctions on Serbian oil company NIS, majority-owned by Russia’s Gazprom. The agreement references an interstate framework with the United Arab Emirates, which also underpins the Belgrade Waterfront development by UAE-based Eagle Hills, a partner in Kushner’s wider regional projects.

Public scrutiny is mounting as details of the deal emerge. The investment agreement published by Radar states that if Serbia does not complete demolition and prepare the land to the investor’s satisfaction by May next year, Atlantic Incubation Partners may walk away and demand compensation.

Despite the backlash, the government has defended the redevelopment as a driver of economic growth and part of a broader strategy to revitalise central Belgrade.

Construction cannot begin until the state meets its contractual obligations — including clearing the ruins that for many Serbians remain a potent symbol of the 1999 conflict.

Wednesday, November 12, 2025

Serbs protest Kushner-backed Belgrade project at army site
DW with AFP, AP

Thousands of Serbs have protested vowing to stop a $500 million luxury project linked to US President Donald Trump's son-in-law. Belgrade has fast-tracked the plan despite anger over corruption and a historical legacy.

The protest against the controversial development has been led by students
Image: Darko Vojinovic/AP Photo/picture alliance

Thousands of protesters in Belgrade staged a dramatic demonstration on Tuesday against the planned redevelopment of Serbia's former Yugoslav Army headquarters, a site destroyed during the 1999 NATO bombing campaign.

The site's protected status as a cultural asset was lifted last year, triggering an investigation into alleged document forgery and anger over perceived corruption.
Why is the site so sensitive?

The student-led rally saw participants form a symbolic human chain around the ruins, which the government has leased for 99 years to Affinity Global Development, a company linked to US President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner.

The crowd drew red lines on the pavement, declaring the area "untouchable."

President Aleksandar Vucic's government last week passed a special law classifying the $500 million (€431 million) project as "urgent” granting it expedited permits despite legal challenges. Critics call the complex an architectural monument and a symbol of Serbia's defiance against the US-led bombing campaign. They say replacing a bombed war relic with luxury towers would erase a painful part of national history still seen by many as unjust "aggression."



Prosecutors are probing whether the revocation was manipulated to clear the way for Kushner's Miami-based firm and its Emirati partner Eagle Hills, which already oversees major redevelopment along Belgrade's Sava River.

"This government has decided to pass a special law to legalize its crime," student activist Valentina Moravcevic told N1 television. "They can now legally destroy this building, but we will not allow it."

Why does Belgrade want the development?


Serbia's government argues the Kushner-backed project will strengthen economic ties with Washington, which has imposed tariffs on Serbian imports and sanctioned the country's Russian-controlled oil monopoly.

The protest is the latest in a yearlong wave of anti-government demonstrations over corruption and safety standards. Anger intensified after a canopy collapse at a train station in Novi Sad last year killed 16 people, an incident widely blamed on crony contracting.

Edited by: Dmytro Hubenko

Richard Connor Reporting on stories from around the world, with a particular focus on Europe — especially Germany.

Monday, November 10, 2025

Montenegro protests expose fragile balance in Serbia-Turkey relations


Issued on: 10/11/2025 - RFI

Anti-Turk protests in Montenegro have added to rising tensions between Serbia and Turkey. The unrest was set off by anger over Ankara’s sale of weapons to Kosovo, and growing fears of Turkish influence in the Balkans.


Demonstrators hold a banner reading "Defending ourselves from further migration, stabbings, rape and occupation" during protest in Montenegro's capital, Podgorica, on 28 October 2025, following the stabbing of a Montenegrin national. AFP - SAVO PRELEVIC

“Turks out!” shouted protesters as they marched through Podgorica, the Montenegrin capital. Several Turkish-owned businesses, among the country’s largest investors, were ransacked during last month’s violence.

The clashes were sparked by a knife attack on a Montenegrin citizen by Turkish nationals.

After the unrest, Montenegro imposed visa requirements on Turkish visitors. Some opposition parties accused Serbia of stoking the protests, pointing to rising friction between Belgrade and Ankara over the arms sale to Kosovo.

“There are those accusing the Serbian region of being behind it,” Vuk Vuksanovic, of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, told RFI. “Although I have seen no material evidence.”


Widening rift

While Serbia has not commented on the accusations, it has the capacity to incite such unrest given its strong influence in Montenegro, Vuksanovic said. “The drama involving Montenegro has built up to this difficult atmosphere in Serbian-Turkish relations,” he said.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic last month accused Turkey of trying to resurrect the Ottoman Empire through the sale of sophisticated drones to Kosovo, which broke away from Serbia in 1999.

Analysts say the weapons deal could shift the balance of power in the region.

“There are the kamikaze drones, which are posing a threat, and there are also strategic drones likely to be used to secure the border itself and more as a show of force,” said Zoran Ivanov, a security expert from the Institute of National History in Skopje, North Macedonia.

“So it poses a direct security threat to Serbia and Serbia has to react to this.


Changing alliances


The tension marks a sharp turnaround. In recent years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had built a close relationship with his Serbian counterpart, and Turkish companies became major investors in Serbia.

However the arms sale to Kosovo reveals a shift in Turkey’s relations with Belgrade, explained international relations professor Huseyin Bagci, of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University.

“Turkey has more leverage than Serbia,” Bagci said. “The relations between Turkey and Serbia, we understand each other, but it is not as happy as before.”

Analysts say the shift reflects Ankara’s wider ambitions in the Balkans.

“Ankara is trying to increase its influence and will do it,” said Bagci, adding that Turkey’s historical and cultural ties to the region run deep – with millions of families tracing their roots back to the former Ottoman territories.

“The Ottoman Empire was a Balkan empire. The Turkish influence is getting bigger, and of course, they don’t like it. But Turkey is the big brother in the Balkans.”

Turkish Cypriot vote could force shift in Erdogan’s approach to divided island


Turkish expansion

Last month, Turkish forces took command of NATO’s KFOR peacekeeping mission in Kosovo. At the same time, Turkish businesses continued expanding across the region.

“They’re expanding their markets; they’re expanding their capabilities; they’re expanding their influence,” Ivanov said.

Turkey’s renewed focus on the Balkans was unsurprising given historical ties, he added. “That’s natural for the Turks to come to invest in the region and now looking for their old roots."

However its expanding presence might feel like history repeating itself, Ivanov warned.

As “a man who is coming from the Balkans,” he said, he sees “the Turks coming as they were in history” – a reminder of a past many in the region have not forgotten.

The European Union has praised Ankara for supporting peacekeeping operations and economic aid in Kosovo. But analysts caution that Turkey must avoid alienating its Balkan neighbours.

“Ankara also has to be mindful of its own limitations of its own Balkan ambitions," Vuksanovic. said. "Because otherwise it can push majority Christian Orthodox nations like the Serbs, Greeks and Bulgarians to work against the Turks if the Turks are perceived to be too provocative or aggressive.”
By:Dorian Jones

Sunday, November 09, 2025

Serbia

The uprising after the collapse at Novi Sad

Sunday 9 November 2025, by Fourth International Serbia delegation


A year after the collapse of the canopy of the Novi Sad train station, which killed 16 people, the Serbian political landscape has been radically shaken by a student social movement of an intensity not seen in decades. A delegation from the Fourth International, composed of comrades from the GA (Gauche anticapitaliste, Belgium) and the NPA-A (Nouveau Parti Anticapitaliste, France), went to meet political, trade union, associative and student activists, to build bonds of solidarity with them and to bring their words back to our countries.

Violence, corruption, nepotism, nationalism: these words would probably not be enough to characterize the police state regime of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, who has been at the country’s helm since 2012. Its hold on the country’s institutions and land heritage is sprawling. To obtain a basic job in many sectors, or even a simple place to live, it is strongly recommended to take your card from the ruling party, the SNS (Serbian Progressive Party), and to participate in its propaganda meetings. Many Serbs consider themselves “under occupation.” And they speak of imperialist interference coming from the East as well as from the West, which closes its eyes to the reality of the regime.
Students as driving force of resistance

The Novi Sad disaster, a symptom of corruption that has devastated the country’s economic infrastructure, acted as a detonator. Teaching staff, going beyond its traditional corporatism, initiated a strike movement. It was quickly joined, and massively, by students from all over the country. Organized in assemblies that apply strict democratic practices, they have set up long marches throughout the country. From village to village, they are welcomed by the inhabitants as heroes. The majority of people enthusiastically supported the movement of those they call “our children.”

One of the most striking and moving symbols was the meeting of students from Novi Pazar, a city with a Muslim and Bosnian majority, with students from the rest of the country: a scene of incredible symbolic force in this region of Europe haunted by a genocidal civil war. “It was the first time I felt like a Serbian citizen,” said a student from Novi Pazar when he arrived in Belgrade.

Movement plans electoral challenge

Since September, the movement has struggled to find a second breath; blockades of universities have stopped almost everywhere. Lack of political coordination? Is the movement running out of steam over the long term? Failed convergence with the trade union movement? Conflictual relationship with a discredited political opposition? Intensification of repression by the regime? Structural blockage linked to Serbia’s position in the world economy? There are many explanations for the current impasses, and they testify to the richness of the strategic debates that run through the Serbian left.

To find a political outlet, the student movement, demanding Vučić’s departure and the holding of free and democratic elections, has chosen to present an independent electoral list. A student list that has engaged in extensive programmatic and organizational work, in conjunction with the rest of the population and civil society. Some polls credit them with more than 45% of voting intentions. The regime has understood this well, rejecting any early election and playing the card of rot and repression to the full. We will stand by them in this perilous fight and send them our full solidarity.

5 November 2025

Attached documentsthe-uprising-after-the-collapse-at-novi-sad_a9254.pdf (PDF - 899.9 KiB)
Extraction PDF [->article9254]

Fourth International Serbia delegation
This delegation visited Serbia in October 2025.


International Viewpoint is published under the responsibility of the Bureau of the Fourth International. Signed articles do not necessarily reflect editorial policy. Articles can be reprinted with acknowledgement, and a live link if possible.

Saturday, November 08, 2025

Depleted uranium: The forgotten legacy of the Kosovo War
DW

In 1999, NATO used uranium ammunition during the Kosovo War. Numerous soldiers subsequently developed cancer, and some were awarded compensation. In Kosovo, the soil remains poisonous to this day.



In March 1999, an American fighter jet was armed with bombs containing depleted uranium off the coast of Albania, which were later used in Kosovo
Image: Mike Nelson/dpa/picture alliance

"I can vividly remember the last day," said Emerico Maria Laccetti, former colonel of the military division of Italian Red Cross.

During the Kosovo War in 1999, he was stationed in Albania, just a few hundred meters from the border with Kosovo. He was the commander of a field hospital for refugees from the province, which at the time belonged to Serbia.

"We stood on containers and watched the bombings," he said. "It was like a perverse New Year's Eve fireworks display. Even at a distance, you could feel the air pressure, the shock waves going through your body. But no, we were not told about the specific dangers of the weapons being used."

In March 1999, NATO's Operation Allied Force intervened in the conflict between the Serbian state and the Albanian majority population in Kosovo, which had been simmering for years. Over 78 days, the alliance flew missions with up to 1,000 aircraft against Serbian security forces. According to official figures, over 28,000 explosive devices were dropped, including controversial uranium ammunition, which is suspected of causing cancer.

This ammunition contained a core of depleted uranium (DU), with high explosive power due to its high density, three times denser than lead. It is therefore used primarily against tanks and armored targets. Its impact can produce fine uranium dust, which continues to emit radiation and can cause health problems, for example, if it is inhaled.

NATO rejects cancer accusations

In response to questions about the health risks posed by DU ammunition, NATO only gave a written statement. "We take health and environmental issues very seriously," it said.

In 2001, a committee on DU concluded that the use of DU ammunition in Kosovo "did not cause any lasting health risk to the population," citing independent findings.

NATO refers to UN reports from 2014. "This is scientific evidence; it was reliable, and we stand by it," the military alliance said in a statement.

However, this contradicts the rulings of Italian courts on lawsuits filed by approximately 500 Kosovo War veterans who developed cancer after coming into contact with depleted uranium ammunition.

Laccetti says he was aware that his field hospital in Morina, Albania, was located in a "hot zone," close to an active conflict, during the NATO bombings — something that would always entail risk.

"What we were never told, however, was that certain types of ammunition can pose long-term danger, even if you are not directly hit — for example, from an unexploded ordnance nearby or from substances used in ammunition production."

Triggering long-term illness

When Laccetti returned home in July 1999, he experienced breathing difficulties and went to the hospital to be examined. "The medical staff suddenly became very flustered," he recalled.

Finally, a doctor showed him the image: "There was something in my lung measuring 24-by-12-by-14 centimeters (9.4-by-4.7-by-5.5 inches)." The then 36-year-old was diagnosed with a very aggressive malignant tumor.

Laccetti was initially treated successfully, but in 2008, he fell ill with cancer again. The results of the tissue examination were alarming. "They found an extraordinary amount of perfectly round ceramic particles — as if I had been standing in a blast furnace."

The conclusion was clear: "These particles had become lodged in my body over many years and could cause new damage through migration or inflammation."


In 1999, NATO used depleted uranium ammunition in the village of Pllenaje in Kosovo
Image: Vjosa Cerkini/DW


Successful lawsuits in Italy

Laccetti learned of other soldiers of the same age who had been stationed nearby and received similar diagnoses. He contacted lawyer Angelo Tartaglia, who represented those affected.

Approximately 500 military personnel successfully sued the state of Italy. Among them was Laccetti, whom a court in Rome certified in 2009 as a victim because he had fulfilled his military duties. The court awarded him compensation.

After the Kosovo War, a commission of the Italian Ministry of Defense investigated a possible link between DU exposure and cancer. It found a statistically significant increase in the incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma, a group of blood cancers, among affected soldiers. However, other studies, such as a WHO report from the same year, found no clear evidence of a direct link between DU and individual cases of disease.

Difficult to prove a cancer link

For Wim Zwijnenburg, a member of the International Coalition to Ban Uranium Weapons (ICBUW), the case is clear-cut.

"The judge recognized that the Italian state had a duty of care, which is why compensation was awarded," explained Zwijnenburg, who has been investigating the use and consequences of DU for over 16 years.

"My conclusion is it is extremely difficult to make a definitive statement," he admits, because depleted uranium only has an effect when it enters the body, usually in the form of fine dust particles that are inhaled. "But the exact amount that people actually absorb has never been properly measured. There are very few reliable long-term studies."

The causes of cancer are often difficult to pinpoint. Unhealthy lifestyles, environmental influences, genetic predisposition and many other factors contribute to the number of cases.

"It's difficult to prove," says Zwijnenburg. "Have those affected ever touched a DU grenade or been near a contaminated tank? Uranium can take a year to penetrate the skin. Doctors cannot make any claims if it is not completely clear. People are looking for a clear cause, but the reality is far more complex."

American uranium ammunition used in Iraq in 2004
Image: STAN HONDA/AFP/Getty Images


Did NATO do enough to clean up Kosovo?


In 2002, the United Nations passed a resolution obliging countries to inform affected states after the use of uranium ammunition and to assist in the cleanup of contaminated areas. It is unclear to what extent NATO fulfilled this responsibility in Kosovo — the NATO peacekeeping force KFOR, which has been stationed there since the end of the fighting to secure peace, does not provide any information.

Visits to the sites show that the population in many regions of Kosovo is unaware of the potential risks, and decontamination measures have not been carried out, except at one site in the west of the country, in the village of Lugbunari near Gjakova.

"NATO could be criticized for using these weapons," said expert Wim Zwijnenburg, "but even more so for not carrying out clean-up operations after the war. There are clear protection protocols for soldiers — but for civilians? Nothing. It is unacceptable to use toxic ammunition and then simply turn away."

Officially, the material that DU ammunition is made of is classified as low- to medium-level radioactive waste. But, Zwijnenburg said, "in humid climates such as the Balkans, shells can corrode and disintegrate, leaving behind dangerous residues."

Wim Zwijnenburg investigates depleted uranium in Iraq 2025
Image: Vjosa Cerkini/DW

The risk doesn't fade with time either, as the half-life of uranium is almost infinite. For Zwiijnenburg, this is evidence of the states' double standards.

"If such a grenade were to be found in a Dutch park, the area would be cordoned off. Special forces in protective suits would place the grenade in a lead container and store it safely." So when it comes to their own population, risks are taken extremely seriously — but elsewhere, they are not.

Laccetti is disappointed that his case and those of many other veterans have not brought about any fundamental changes. "Depleted uranium ammunition is still legal. We have tried in every conceivable way to ban it, like cluster munitions or anti-personnel mines," he said. "We have failed."

With additional reporting by Gabriele Cruciata in Rome and Marjolein Koster in Utrecht.

The research for this article was supported by Journalism fund Europe.

This article was originally published in German.

Vjosa Cerkini 
Reporter focusing on Kosovo and other Western Balkan countries



SEE https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/search?q=KOSOVO

Seeing the Forest for the Trees
Thesis on The Kosovo Crisis and the Crisis of Global Capitalism

(originally written May 1999, Bill Clinton set the stage for George W. to invade Afghanistan and Iraq for humanitarian purposes.)
http://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2005/01/war-whats-it-good-for-profit.html
KUSHNER REALITY INC.
Serbia Adopts Law Fast-Tracking Kushner Development At Bombed Army HQ

Heavily damaged former Yugoslav Army headquarters in Belgrade, Serbia.

 Photo Credit: kallerna, Wikipedia Commons

November 8, 2025 
Balkan Insight

MPs adopted a ‘lex specialis’ to speed up the redevelopment of the former Yugoslav Army headquarters in Belgrade, bombed by NATO in 1999 – an investment project involving Jared Kushner’s company.


By Milica Stojanovic

Serbian MPs on Friday adopted a so-called lex specialis, a special law on redeveloping the former Yugoslav Army General Headquarters in Belgrade, a landmark socialist-era building that was partly destroyed by the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999.

Out of 171 MPs present at the session, 130 voted in favour of the law, 40 were against, and one MP did not vote.

The law aims to declare the redevelopment – which is already linked to the investment firm of Jared Kushner, US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law – a “project of importance for the Republic of Serbia”.

The building was severely damaged in two NATO air attacks, between April 29 and 30, 1999, and again between May 7 and 8 the same year. Parts of the premises were demolished between 2014 and 2017 for safety reasons.

“Competent authorities are obliged in the procedures carried out for the purpose of realising the project to act as a priority and according to urgent procedure,” the draft law says.

The landmark building, designed by architect Nikola Dobrovic for the Yugoslav Socialist authorities and built in the late 1950s and early 1960s, was listed as a protected cultural monument by the state, described as “a significant work of Serbian and Yugoslav post-WWII architecture”.

The redevelopment project and the lex specialis were heavily criticised by the Serbian opposition and architectural experts.

On Tuesday, opposition MPs queried the need to pass a special law to enable the project to be realised.

“Suddenly, a hotel and a residential building are now of national interest,” MP Radomir Lazovic said. “So much so that a special law is passed … it is not enough that we have our own laws, but now we will pass a special law for two buildings – so you can give them to foreigners and buy them to keep quiet about the crimes you are carrying out here.”

The new law does not mention that the project has been agreed with Jared Kushner’s investment company Affinity Partners. According to the New York Times, the Kushner project in Belgrade will involve a luxury hotel and 1,500 residential units and a museum.

The project had been ongoing for some time but was halted in May by a criminal investigation led by the Special Prosecutor’s Office for Organised Crime, over suspicions that the documentation – stripping the Yugoslav Army General Headquarters complex of protection as a cultural asset – had been forged.

The special laws allow the government to bypass normal procedures, including those about public procurements or construction safety.

Such special laws first came to public attention in Serbia in 2015, when the ruling Progressive Party, SNS, used one to advance a multi-billion-euro deal to develop riverfront land in Belgrade with a United Arab Emirates property developer.

In 2020, the Serbian parliament adopted an overarching lex specialis for all future big infrastructure projects, effectively suspending public procurement rules for them forever.


Balkan Insight

The Balkan Insight (formerly the Balkin Investigative Reporting Network, BIRN) is a close group of editors and trainers that enables journalists in the region to produce in-depth analytical and investigative journalism on complex political, economic and social themes. BIRN emerged from the Balkan programme of the Institute for War & Peace Reporting, IWPR, in 2005. The original IWPR Balkans team was mandated to localise that programme and make it sustainable, in light of changing realities in the region and the maturity of the IWPR intervention. Since then, its work in publishing, media training and public debate activities has become synonymous with quality, reliability and impartiality. A fully-independent and local network, it is now developing as an efficient and self-sustainable regional institution to enhance the capacity for journalism that pushes for public debate on European-oriented political and economic reform.

Thursday, November 06, 2025


Demographic Crime: How Russia Is Repopulating Occupied Territories – Analysis

IMPERIALISM BY ANY OTHER NAME



November 6, 2025

 IWPR
By Anastasiia Hrubryna


Experts believe that – beginning with the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the seizure of parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions – Russia is engaging in a systematic campaign to change the demographic composition of Ukraine’s occupied territories.

This policy involves forcibly deporting Ukrainians to distant parts of Russia while repopulating seized lands with other ethnic groups. Such actions are a flagrant violation of international law, particularly the Fourth Geneva Convention, which protects civilians in wartime.

“We are able to document these cases thanks to our active, concerned citizens in the temporarily occupied territories who provide us with this information,” explained a spokesperson from The National Resistance Centre (NRC), a body created by the Special Operations Forces immediately after the full-scale invasion to support training and coordinating efforts against the occupation of Ukraine.

The spokesperson, who uses the alias Lypa for security reasons, said that most of the investigations into forced demographic changes in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions remained in the pre-trial phase. However, a few cases were now proceeding to court.

Two Russian citizens have been sentenced in absentia to ten years in prison for deporting Ukrainians from the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia region. Another trial is also underwayagainst Russian officials and collaborators for the deportation of Ukrainian children from the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions.

The main concern is that Russian nationals, brought into Ukraine’s occupied territories, are moving into the homes of Ukrainians whose fates remain unknown. Lypa said that while legal proceedings were underway regarding the settlement of Russians in Ukrainian homes, no court decisions have been made public yet.

“Cities along the Sea of Azov are the most affected by this resettlement,” she continued. “The Russian authorities are marketing this housing and the region as a whole as luxury seaside property, even in places where the buildings are nothing but ruins.”

Lypa highlighted Mariupol as effectively a propaganda tool for the Kremlin, which first claimed to be liberating the city and is now supposedly rebuilding it.

“This is also happening in other cities like Berdiansk, Henichesk, Donetsk and Luhansk. Demographic changes are still underway in these areas, as Ukrainians who have fled the occupied territories find it extremely difficult to prove their property rights to the Russian authorities.”

According to Lypa, Russian authorities frequently declare the homes of Ukrainians ownerless and then seized them for their own purposes.

In other cases, Ukrainians are declared to be enemies of the people, saboteurs or spies for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They may also be told that an attack on the area is imminent and that leaving is necessary.

Lypa said that the largest groups moved into the occupied territories were indigenous peoples of the Russian Federation including Buryats, Ossetians and Dagestanis. Russia uses them as a labour force to rebuild cities.

Russian authorities are also encouraging the so-called educated elite – teachers and doctors – to relocate to the occupied territories.

“There are substantial payments for teachers,” said Lypa. “At first, it was a one-time bonus of one million roubles (12,500 US dollars), which later became two million (25,000 dollars). The salaries are high. They were even given a status equivalent to combat participants with corresponding social benefits packages.”

Cases of repopulation are documented using various information sources, primarily, from the testimonies of Ukrainians living in these areas. Concerned citizens send information about Russian activities to a chatbot for the National Resistance Centre. This information is then verified by units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, intelligence services and Special Operations Forces.

“We have a very large network of our own people and resistance members in the temporarily occupied territories. They check and confirm the information. This is how we document these crimes,” said Lypa.

Crimes involving Ukrainians who collaborate with the Russians are investigated as a separate category. Cases where this cooperation was forced and necessary for survival are also taken into consideration.

Holding Russia Accountable

Human rights advocate Serhii Lankin explained that Russia was violating international humanitarian law by moving its own citizens into occupied Ukrainian territories. This action breaches numerous international agreements, including the Fourth Geneva Convention (Article 49), Additional Protocol I (Article 85), the 1907 Hague Convention (IV) and the Rome Statute.

While evicting Russian settlers may appear legally straightforward – as Ukrainian and international law support the restitution of property – the process of holding the Russian occupiers accountable is a much greater challenge.

A precedent can be found in the case of the Yugoslav People’s Army (JNA) and Serbian paramilitary forces during the ethnic cleansing in Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina in the early 1990s. At that time, thousands of Croats and Muslims were forcibly displaced from their homes. The act was classified as a war crime under Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention.

“Ukraine has already submitted a referral to the International Criminal Court regarding the deportations, particularly of Ukrainian children, and the pressure on Ukrainians in Crimea and other regions as a war crime,” Lankin explained.

Challenges in cooperation extend to the International Criminal Court (ICC). Prior to 2022, the ICC had not opened a single case concerning deportations from Crimea, despite

The Prosecutor’s Office of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea is investigating Russia’s forced demographic changes as a war crime. However, Ukrainian law currently lacks specific statutes addressing crimes such as deportation, changing the ethnic composition of a region or repopulation.

Vitalii Sekretar, the first deputy head of the Prosecutor’s Office for the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, said that investigators were searching for eyewitnesses and victims of repopulation, but that in most cases people who left the occupied territories were afraid to testify about what they have witnessed. These Ukrainian victims primarily fear reprisals from the Russians, either against themselves or their relatives who remain under occupation.

Sekretar said his office’s work was currently focused on deportation cases, adding, “The crime of deportation is unique in that the deportation of even a single person is considered a war crime.”

Investigators have established that 12,000 people were deported from Crimea through court rulings.

“This is a situation where a person was in Crimea but refused to obtain Russian citizenship,” Sekretar said. “Currently, a team of just five prosecutors with specialised experience is handling the investigation into the deportation of Ukrainians from the peninsula.”

To date, they have identified 18 suspects accused of forcing Ukrainians to leave by applying Russian occupation laws, with 15 of these cases sent to court. The Prosecutor’s Office for the Autonomous Republic of Crimea has already secured six convictions for war crimes related to deportation and repopulation – the first such verdicts for Russian crimes in Crimea. All convicted individuals remain at large in the occupied territories or in Russia itself. Most of the suspects are judges – both Ukrainian collaborators who sided with the occupation authorities and Russian nationals appointed to courts in Crimea. Three more suspects were identified in late September 2025.

For the crime of deportation, Russian citizens and Ukrainian collaborators face sentences of ten to 12 years in prison. However, all verdicts issued to date have been in absentia.



About the author: Anastasiia Hrubryna is a journalist at the Vikna-Novyny STB website, focusing on social and political issues, Ukrainian servicemen, and survivors of Russian crimes.


Source: This article was published by IWPR




IWPR

The Institute for War & Peace Reporting is headquartered in London with coordinating offices in Washington, DC and The Hague, IWPR works in over 30 countries worldwide. It is registered as a charity in the UK, as an organisation with tax-exempt status under Section 501(c)(3) in the United States, and as a charitable foundation in The Netherlands. The articles are originally produced by the Institute for War and Peace Reporting.