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Thursday, November 07, 2024

TRUMPISTAN
Litman: Will Trump launch a reign of terror against his list of enemies? There's little to stop him

Opinion by Harry Litman


President Nixon with transcripts of White House tapes after he announced that he would turn them over to House impeachment investigators in 1974. The Watergate scandal led to Justice Department reforms that are unlikely to survive the second Trump administration. ((Associated Press))© (Associated Press)


During his ultimately victorious campaign for the presidency, Donald Trump made no bones about his intention to use the legal levers of government to go after his perceived enemies. When he takes office in January, we should therefore expect him to launch a reign of terror against dozens of people he sees as having crossed him. And his vengeance will be enabled by the Supreme Court opinion granting presidents broad immunity from prosecution.

A recent National Public Radio analysis determined that Trump has threatened more than 100 federal investigations or prosecutions to settle scores. They run the gamut from President Biden and his family, whom the president-elect has promised to pay back on Day 1 of his tenure by appointing a special prosecutor to investigate unspecified crimes; to former Rep. Liz Cheney, whom he recently suggested should face something like a firing squad; to judges involved in his prosecutions; and journalists who refuse to give up their sources.

Granted, Trump frequently gives the impression that he has little understanding of or even interest in many of the policies he pressed on the campaign trail. But retribution against his enemies is clearly something that gets him up in the morning. From well before his entry into politics, Trump has been single-minded in intimidating and exacting retribution against his opponents.

A passage from one of his tacky books that was read into evidence at his New York criminal trial declares, “My motto is: Always get even. When somebody screws you, screw them back in spades.”

Trump is in this respect not unique in the annals of the American presidency. The desire to “screw” one’s enemies, a hallmark of the insecure leader, is the impulse that brought down Richard Nixon. Watergate originally sprang from Nixon’s vendetta against Daniel Ellsberg, whom he was determined to embarrass for exposing the Pentagon Papers.

In the wake of Nixon’s abuses, the country put in place a series of laws, regulations and norms designed to prevent government by vengeance. These included a prohibition on White House meddling in Justice Department prosecutions that took on canonical status.

I was a Justice official at the beginning of what became the Whitewater scandal, and it would have been unthinkable at the time for a White House official to try to direct the department to investigate a political enemy. No administration would have dared, and no department official would have acquiesced.

Since Watergate, the only administration that failed to fully respect that principle was Trump’s. His political appointees repeatedly pushed the department to at least provide information about continuing prosecutions. In those difficult years, the department sometimes resisted but sometimes relented. Biden’s attorney general, Merrick Garland, made it a priority to rebuild the wall between the White House and the Justice Department.

Trump has made it clear that he intends to raze that wall in his first days in office. Working off the blueprint of Project 2025, Trump has announced that he plans to hollow out the department’s career staff and replace them with political appointees who will serve at his pleasure and be loyal to him, not the Constitution.

At that point, there will be no real impediment to the use of federal power for revenge against Trump’s long list of enemies. It will be the opposite of the department’s proud aspiration to do “justice without fear or favor.”

Moreover, Trump has said he will rely on the Supreme Court’s immunity opinion to provide full cover against any legal resistance. When asked recently how he would handle special counsel Jack Smith, who led his two federal prosecutions, Trump replied, "It's so easy — I would fire him within two seconds," adding that he would enjoy “immunity at the Supreme Court.”

The irony and tragedy of Trump’s invocation of the opinion is that the court declared it was ruling not for Trump but “for the ages.” But it is indeed Trump whose unscrupulous ambition it has served. And while the court reasoned that immunity is needed to safeguard aggressive, nimble and presumably lawful presidential action, Trump takes the lesson that he can violate the Constitution with impunity.

The corrupt use of prosecutorial power can amount to a crime. For starters, the federal code criminalizes conspiring to injure any person because of their exercise of constitutional rights or their race. But the Supreme Court has ensured that Trump could carry out unlawful prosecutions: He can commit crimes but can't be made to answer for them.

Trump’s retribution agenda may encounter other roadblocks. Grand juries may not go along with prosecutions that reek of vengeance, and trial juries and judges are more likely to resist.

Also, presidential immunity doesn’t extend to other executive branch officials, and Trump will need confederates in the Justice Department to do his bidding. But with a clear Republican majority in the Senate, Trump is likely to get any senior official he wants confirmed. That could include the likes of the right-wing activist and attorney general hopeful Mike Davis, who wrote Wednesday of Trump’s opponents, “I want to drag their dead political bodies through the streets, burn them, and throw them off the wall. (Legally, politically, and financially, of course.)”

As a practical matter, by far the most important protections against vengeful prosecutions are career federal prosecutors’ nonpartisan professionalism and the norms forbidding the White House from telling them whom to prosecute. Trump is plainly fixing to lay waste to those safeguards. That alone would constitute a giant step away from the rule of law and toward autocracy.

Harry Litman is the host of the “Talking Feds” podcast and the “Talking San Diego” speaker series. @harrylitman

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.


Massachusetts Governor Vows to Refuse Trump Request for Help with Mass Deportations: 'Absolutely Not'


The Democratic governor warned other states of the pressure they will face following Trump's election

By Maryam Khanum
Published 11/07/24

Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey expressed that she would refuse to assist in mass deportations in her state, and warned other states of the pressure they will face. Getty Images

Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey said that she would refuse to assist in mass deportations in her state, and warned states of the pressure they will face to penalize and deport undocumented immigrants.

"If the Trump administration requested, would the Massachusetts State Police assist in mass deportations?" MSNBC's Lawrence O'Donnell asked the governor.

"No. Absolutely not," Healey responded.

Massachusetts Governor says her state won’t assist with deportations if President Trump’s administration asks.

She says she will protect the illegals in her state. pic.twitter.com/I3oHWmtg8I— Daily Loud (@DailyLoud) November 7, 2024

"I do think it's important that we all recognize that there's going to be a lot of pressure on states and state officials, and I can assure you, we're going to work really hard to deliver," Healey continued.

Former President Donald Trump was declared the winner of the 2024 presidential election in the early hours of Wednesday morning, making him the 47th president of the United States. Trump largely targeted undocumented immigrants present within the United States over the course of his campaign, promising "to have the largest deportation in the history of our country" if elected.

"While I'm sure there may be litigation ahead, there's a lot of other ways that people are going to act and need to act for the sake of their states and their residents," Healey told MSNBC.

"I think that the key here is that, you know, every tool in the toolbox has got to be used to protect our citizens, to protect our residents and protect our states. And certainly, hold the line on democracy and the rule of law as a basic principle," she continued.

Originally published by Latin Times.


Climate ‘flashpoint’ looms for Trump’s China-centric focus on Pacific: US analysts

Deepening U.S. engagement with the Pacific is now firmly a consensus issue in Washington.

By Harry Pearl for BenarNews
2024.11.07

Then-President Donald Trump sports a flower lei after arriving aboard Air Force One at Hickam Air Force Base, Hawaii, Nov. 3, 2017. (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)

Growing U.S. security and diplomatic ties with Pacific island nations are unlikely to slow even if American foreign policy undergoes a major shake-up during Donald Trump’s second term, say former White House advisers and analysts.

Following decades of neglect, Washington has in recent years embarked on a Pacific charm offensive to counter the growing influence of China in the region.

While Trump’s unpredictably and climate change skepticism could be potential flashpoints in relations, deepening U.S. engagement with the Pacific is now firmly a consensus issue in Washington.

Trump is likely to maintain focus on the relationship, experts say, but he will have to prove that U.S. attention extends beyond just security-related matters.

“President Trump saw a strategic rationale for increased engagement in the Indo-Pacific and increased engagement in the Pacific islands,” said Alexander Gray, a senior fellow in national security affairs at the American Foreign Policy Council.

“While the reality is that the security lens is going to galvanize our commitment of resources and time on the region, it’s important for us to send a message that we have other interests beyond just security,” added Gray, who was the first-ever director for Oceania & Indo-Pacific security at the National Security Council.

“We have to show an interest in development, economic assistance and economic growth.”

A number of firsts

Trump’s first term between 2017-21 contained a number of firsts for relations between the world’s No. 1 economy and Pacific islands.

Then-President Donald Trump meets with, from left, Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine, Federated States of Micronesia President David Panuelo and Palau President Tommy Remengesau on May 21, 2019. (US Embassy Kolonia/White House via Facebook)

He invited the leaders of Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia and Palau for a historic visit to the White House in May 2019. Later that year Mike Pompeo became the first-ever secretary of state to visit the Federated States of Micronesia.

In 2019, the White House announced more than US$100 million in new assistance to the region under its so-called Pacific Pledge, with additional funding provided the following year. Money was funneled into USAID operations in Pacific islands nations, maritime security, internet coverage, environmental challenges and disaster resilience.

The Biden-Harris administration built upon that relationship, including twice inviting Pacific Islands Forum leaders to meet at the White House in 2022 and 2023.

“The importance of the Pacific is bipartisan in the U.S. system. In fact, re-engagement with the Pacific islands started under the previous Trump administration,” said Kathryn Paik, who served as director for the Pacific and Southeast Asia at the NSC under President Joe Biden.

“This was largely due to increased Chinese interest in the region and the growing understanding within the U.S. system of the strategic importance of these islands.”

In particular, the Biden administration’s commitment to tackling climate change chimed well with Pacific nations, which are vulnerable to rising sea levels and extreme weather events like cyclones that are predicted to become more frequent as the planet warms.

Radically different approach

Trump has taken a radically different approach — pledging to ramp up oil production and threatening to pull out of the Paris climate agreement for a second time.

In June 2017, Trump announced the U.S. would formally withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, the first nation in the world to do so.

That could make climate change a potential “flashpoint” between Pacific nations and another Trump administration, said Benjamin Reilly, a visiting professor at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.

“The climate change issue is right at the top of the agenda for Pacific island leaders. It creates lots of difficulties when you have an administration that’s seen as downplaying the importance of that,” he told BenarNews.

President Joe Biden (R) meets with presidents of Pacific island nations at the U.S.-Pacific Island Country Summit in Washington, D.C., Sept. 29, 2022. (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)

Paik, who is now a senior fellow with the Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the climate factor would complicate the relationship, but it was unlikely to “completely sink” it.

Despite Trump’s open skepticism about dangerous planet warming, U.S. support for resilience efforts across the Pacific might not be affected, some observers said.

“The Pacific certainly didn’t agree with us on our macro approach to climate change,” said Gray, who visited the region a number of times, including for the 2019 Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) in Tuvalu. “But we made tremendous progress in advancing our relationships in the region because we were able to talk about resilience issues that affect people day to day.”

Shared values, mutual respect

Following Trump’s sweeping victory on Tuesday, Pacific island leaders tried to stress their shared interests with the U.S.

“We look forward to reinforcing the longstanding partnership between our nations, grounded in shared values and mutual respect,” said Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape.

Tonga’s Prime Minister Siaosi Sovaleni and Fiji’s Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabukia both said they looked forward to advancing bilateral relations and Pacific interests.

Pacific island nations have sought to benefit from the China-U.S. rivalry by securing more aid and foreign investment. But they have expressed alarm that their region is being turned into a geopolitical battleground.

Reilly said a danger for any new president was treating the Pacific islands as a “geopolitical chess board.”

“That’s a terrible way to actually engage and win hearts and minds and build enduring partnerships,” he said.

Paik said the U.S. now needs to build on the successes of the first phase of American re-engagement.

The U.S. renewed its compact of free association deals with Micronesia, Palau and the Marshall Islands earlier this year, but “some of the implementation is still pending,” she said. The deals give the U.S. military exclusive access to their vast ocean territories in exchange for funding and the right for their citizens to live and work in the U.S.

“Some of the embassies have been opened, but we still only have one or two diplomats on the ground,” said Paik. “We still need to open an embassy in Kiribati and potentially other locations.

“We need to get ambassadors out to the region. We need a permanent ambassador to the PIF.”

No sitting U.S. president has ever visited a Pacific island nation.



Wednesday, November 06, 2024

Something Weird Happened 15 Minutes Before the Giant Tonga Eruption of 2022

A previously overlooked seismic signal portended the gargantuan volcanic eruption.
Published November 5, 2024 
A satellite image of the Tonga eruption.
Images: NASA Earth Observatory / Joshua Stevens / Lauren Dauphin / CALIPSO data from NASA/CNES, MODIS and VIIRS data from NASA EOSDIS LANCE and GIBS/Worldview and the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership, and GOES imagery courtesy of NOAA and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS)

Two years ago, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano blew its top, destroying the island of the same name, forcing mass evacuations, covering Tonga in ash, and causing several deaths. Predicting these sorts of natural disasters are exceedingly difficult, but a surprising new finding suggests some volcanoes give off a clue in the minutes preceding a cataclysmic eruption.

According to a team of researchers that reviewed some overlooked data from that data, the huge volcanic eruption that rocked the Pacific Ocean in 2022 was preceded by a seismic wave that shot across Earth’s surface. The data was collected by faraway seismometers, but the recent team posits that even those distant signals can help people prepare for future surprise eruptions.

Early warning systems for natural disasters—earthquakes, eruptions and tsunamis, as well as more predictable events like hurricanes, tornadoes, and typhoons—save lives. Any amount of notice is better than none, as even critical minutes of warning can make the difference between life and death.

“Early warnings are very important for disaster mitigation,” said study co-author Mie Ichihara, a volcanologist at the University of Tokyo, in an American Geophysical Union release. “Island volcanoes can generate tsunamis, which are a significant hazard.”

The team inspected seismometer data from stations in Fiji and Futuna—over 466 miles (750 kilometers) from the eruption. In that data, the researchers found a certain kind of surface-traveling seismic wave—called a Rayleigh wave—that emanated from the direction of the cataclysmic eruption about 15 minutes before the event itself. The Rayleigh wave was imperceptible to humans, but the seismometers had no problem picking it up.

“Referring to other seismic signals and satellite images, we concluded that the Rayleigh wave was the most significant eruption precursor with no apparent surface activity,” the researchers wrote in their work, published Monday in Geophysical Research Letters. “Including our findings and results of previous studies, we propose a scenario of the beginning of the caldera-forming eruption.”

The record-breaking eruption occurred on January 15, 2022. The eruption’s 36-mile-high (58-kilometer-high) volcanic plume was the largest ever recorded, and reached Earth’s mesosphere in just half an hour. The previous record-holder was the huge 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines.

As the team notes, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha‘apai eruption was not preceded by any “apparent surface activity.” Consequently, the Rayleigh wave was the main indicator of the imminent destruction.

“When a usual earthquake occurs, seismic waves including the Rayleigh wave are instantaneously used to estimate the source parameters,” such as the epicenter, depth, magnitude, and mechanism, Ichihara told Gizmodo in an email. “Then, the source parameters are used to disseminate Tsunami early warning. However, there is no existing infrastructure to use the Rayleigh wave from an eruption precursor like the one identified in our article, though we believe it useful.”

“At the time of the eruption, we didn’t think of using this kind of analysis in real-time.”

In their paper, the researchers suggest that a fracture in the oceanic crust beneath the volcano’s caldera wall released the seismic wave detected in Fiji and Futuna. Then, magma from beneath the crust and ocean water above it poured into the volcano’s magma chamber beneath the surface, which caused the land above to collapse and kick off the eruption.

The team suggests that analyzing data from seismic stations located even hundreds of miles from an eruption can reveal the event before its worst impacts occur. “At the time of the eruption, we didn’t think of using this kind of analysis in real-time,” Ichihara said. “But maybe the next time that there is a significant eruption underwater, local observatories can recognize it from their data.”



Sunday, October 20, 2024

 

Royal Navy Helps Recover Evidence After Loss of New Zealand Survey Ship

HMS Tamar raced to assist, and helped collect debris after the sinking - including the lost ship's deck log

Wreck site of HMNZS Manawanui off Samoa, October 2024 (NZDF)
Wreck site of HMNZS Manawanui off Samoa, October 2024 (NZDF)

Published Oct 18, 2024 10:52 PM by Royal Navy News

 

 

New Zealand has thanked the Royal Navy for its help in responding to the sinking of the survey ship HMNZS Manawanui off Samoa. 

HMNZS Manawanui ran aground while mapping waters around a reef on October 5, subsequently capsizing and sinking after all her crew had been safely evacuated.

HMS Tamar, which had just left Fiji on a patrol to stop illegal fishing activities in the region, was on her way to Samoa within a minute of receiving the call.

She arrived 23 hours later after a 650-mile dash at full speed through heavy seas – learning on the way that the Manawanui had sunk.

Tamar was still needed, however, to help with the aftermath of the sinking: protecting the wreck site, helping to prevent any illegal activities or snoopers, and helping New Zealand recover any official material/equipment and personal effects from the waters around Samoa.

The deputy head of the Royal New Zealand Navy Commodore Andrew Brown, who is in Samoa to oversee the recovery and relief operation, visited HMS Tamar when the British ship put into harbor to convey his nation’s gratitude to Commander Tom Gell and his sailors.

The fate of the Manawanui is particularly poignant for Tamar’s crew, who have worked with the ship this year and were treated to a traditional p?whiri – Maori greeting – from her sailors only last month when the British warship visited the New Zealand naval base in Devonport. 

“The phone call from our headquarters was truly shattering,” said Commander Gell. 

HMNZS Manawanui has run aground on a reef south of Upolou, they are abandoning ship, make best speed.

“Within one minute we had increased to maximum speed and were charging into the sea to reach them as quickly as possible,” Commander Gell continued.

Manawanui were our host ship during our recent visit to Devonport – we know the team well and have also worked with them previously in Tonga. They are our friends and they are highly professional, fellow mariners.”The two ships had appeared side-by-side earlier this year at the International Fleet Review in Tonga.

While Tamar’s dash across the Pacific could not save the stricken New Zealand vessel, Commander Gell said there was widespread relief among his 50 crew when they learned all the Manawanui’s sailors had safely abandoned ship.

When the British ship arrived off the wreck site at sunrise on Sunday, the bridge team had expected to find the surrounding waters littered with flotsam: shipping containers and debris, plus a potential oil slick.

None of that was to be seen, but Tamar was soon directed to debris by a long-range Royal New Zealand Air Force P8 patrol aircraft, scouring the area. It was recovered and has been returned to the New Zealanders.

HMS Tamar will remain in support of the diving/recovery operation as long as she is needed.

“When we operate at sea, often a long way from help and support, we take a degree of risk. This is something that people who volunteer to serve in navies accept,” Commander Gell added. “When HMS Nottingham hit Wolf Rock in 2002, in the most dire situation, HMNZS Te Mana and other Royal New Zealand Navy assets were first on scene to render support to us."


Salvage of Lost Survey Ship Will Pause for King Charles' Visit to Samoa

Manawanui
Courtesy U.S. Embassy in Samoa

Published Oct 18, 2024 7:35 PM by The Maritime Executive


The salvage response to the lost New Zealand Navy survey vessel HMNZS Manawanui will pause for a week while Samoa hosts a high-profile Commonwealth meeting, attended by King Charles III. The king's lodgings will be within a few miles of the wreck site, and work will be limited to observation and monitoring for the duration of his stay. 

Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mata'afa told reporters Friday that response work, including dive and coastline operations, would be paused for the duration of the conference. 

As of Thursday, a contractor was preparing to remove three lost shipping containers from the reef off the coast of Tafitoala. The local contractor, ARK Marine, plans to float the boxes off the reef intact. One has already been emptied by responders; one contains trash, and the last one contains food. The boxes are small 10-foot units, but may be harder to move because of the site. "The containers are not watertight and have sustained some structural damage, and are being moved by tides and swell," the New Zealand Defence Force told local media.

The job is expected to take three days, NZDF spokesman Commodore Andrew Brown told New Zealand's 1News, assuming favorable weather conditions. It was unclear if the container removal element of the response would be paused, as suggested by Prime Minister Mata'afa.

New Zealand's military says that only a slight quantity of diesel fuel has escaped from the Manawanui's engine room, and that the ship's main tanks are intact. No shoreline impacts have been observed, and a minor surface slick seen from the air has been dissipating out at sea. However, local residents have been instructed not to fish in the area during the salvage operation, and many are upset about the risk of pollution. Samoa's economy is less developed, and many residents are dependent upon subsistence fishing for their income and sustenance. 

Fishermen and tourism operators near the wreck site have called for compensation for loss of income, but New Zealand's government has so far resisted the question, suggesting that it is too early to understand the impact of the sinking - particularly since the evidence released so far suggests only limited amounts of pollution. This view is not shared by all local stakeholders: Samoa's Marine Pollution Advisory Committee believes that the ship lost about 200,000 liters of fuel, or about 17 percent of the 950 tonnes of diesel on board. The NZDF believes that the true size of the release was far smaller, since all of the main fuel tanks are undamaged. 


Thursday, October 10, 2024

 

New Zealand imperialism in the Pacific in the 21st century

Published 
New Zealand Defence Force

First published at ISO Aotearoa.

The Pacific is our family, and being here is a great opportunity to reaffirm New Zealand’s position as a close and trusted partner.

Visiting Niue in June 2024, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon trotted out this familiar official story about the New Zealand government’s relationship to the peoples of Te Moana-Nui-a-Kiwa — one told by National and Labour politicians alike.

The official story is a myth.

Closer to the truth is the view recently given in an interview with the Green Party spokesperson for Pacific Peoples, Teanau Tuiono: “The relationship with New Zealand and the Pacific has been a problematic one, as well. New Zealand has used the Pacific as a place to extract resources or to bring in cheap labour. So that relationship is part of history.”

But any suggestion that New Zealand’s Pacific imperialism is no more than a part of history would be mistaken.

A vision of New Zealand as a launching pad for Western imperialism in the Pacific was present in the minds of British colonisers from their early arrival in Aotearoa. In a speech to the House of Commons in 1845, Charles Buller — Member of Parliament and director of the New Zealand Company — declared:

A British colony in New Zealand would be the natural master of this ocean… You might make it in truth the Britain of the southern hemisphere: there you might concentrate the trade of the Pacific; and from that new seat of your dominion you might give laws and manners to a new world.

Successive 19th century New Zealand politicians — from Governor George Grey to Premiers Julius Vogel, Robert Stout and Richard Seddon — petitioned the Colonial Office in London to turn this vision into a reality and annex a host of Pacific nations — including Fiji, Tonga, Sāmoa, New Hebrides (Vanuatu) and even French controlled territories. They met with with little success. British imperialists were more focused at the time on protecting their existing empire from European rivals and indigenous revolts.

Growing dissatisfied with London’s reluctance, attention turned to imposing direct rule from Wellington on Britain’s behalf. In 1901, the New Zealand government assumed control over the Cook Islands and the location of Christopher Luxon’s recent myth-making, Niue. This was followed by the military invasion of Western Samoa (1914), followed by control of Nauru (1923, in partnership with Australia and the UK) and Tokelau (1926). Direct rule did not end until the election of the first Ulu-o-Tokelau (Tokelauan head of government) in 1993. The brutal history of New Zealand’s imperial rule over these peoples has been documented before. But military intervention and New Zealand imperialism in the Pacific, now in partnership with Australia and the United States, has continued unabated into the 21st century.

Bougainville

In 1997, New Zealand troops were dispatched to Bougainville as a Truce Monitoring Group, marking the end of a nine-year war between the Bougainville Revolutionary Army and the government of Papua New Guinea (PNG). They famously landed on the island armed only with guitars. Many of the personnel still have vivid memories of helping Bougainville’s people. But whatever the personal motivations of individual soldiers, they were being used to serve New Zealand government interests.

The official story portrays New Zealand’s intervention as serving the people, a majority of whom longed for peace. PNG forces had killed 12,000 Bougainvilleans out of a population of 160,000. A third of the people were driven from their homes. But Bougainvilleans also wanted independence and an end to the environmental destruction caused by the huge Panguna copper mine on the island.

The Panguna mine was jointly owned by the PNG government and Australian multinational corporation Rio Tinto. Opening in 1972, the mine generated billions of dollars in profits for Rio Tinto and provided the PNG government with a fifth of its income. Only 1 percent of the profit went back to the people of Bougainville. Meanwhile more than a billion tonnes of tailings from the mine, contaminated with toxic waste, were dumped in the rivers, killing fish, birds and other animals. Tribal lands, home to the spirits of ancestors, were desecrated.

Australia opposed independence for Bougainville and backed the PNG government’s war against its people. They funded the PNG military and supplied them with training, ammunition, aircraft, weapons and even personnel. Phosphorous incendiary munitions which were dropped on villages in 1994 were supplied by Australia. Phosphorous is a weapon of indiscriminate terror, which sticks to various surfaces, including skin and clothes and burns at temperatures of 800–2500 °C. Its use against civilian targets is banned under international law.

Unsurprisingly, the Bougainville Revolutionary Army refused to allow Australian troops onto the island to monitor the truce. “Australia is clearly not neutral because it was a major party to the nine-year war on Bougainville”, said the President of the Bougainville Interim Government, Francis Ona. “The Australian government’s real interest is to allow the safe return of Rio Tinto to mining Panguna.”

Yet five months after New Zealand troops arrived, in April 1998, 250 Australian troops were landing on Bougainville and New Zealand was handing over command of the operation to brigadier Bruce Osborne of the Australian army. “New Zealand had to get involved at the outset to open the door for Australia”, said Reuben Siara, legal advisor to the Bougainville Interim Government.

The 1997 peace agreement included a promise of a referendum on Bougainville’s independence. It took 22 more years for that referendum to be held. Despite 97 percent voting in favour of independence in 2019, the PNG government has so far refused to accept the result and despite a long-running claim for compensation no money has been paid by Rio Tinto. New Zealand’s military intervention in Bougainville has ensured above all that Western imperial interests are protected.

Timor Leste

In 1999, New Zealand troops deployed to East Timor as part of a United Nations operation led by Australia. The territory had been under a brutal Indonesian occupation since 1975, when Indonesian forces launched a massive air and sea invasion to crush Timorese independence.

Elections in the former Portuguese colony that year had delivered victory to the Frente Revolucionária de Timor-Leste Independente (Revolutionary Front of Independent East Timor, or Fretilin). Indonesia’s military dictator, President Suharto, ordered the invasion due to Cold War fears about the spread of communism, along with the discovery of oil and gas reserves in the seabed between East Timor and Australia. Amnesty International estimates that up to 200,000 Timorese people — a quarter of the population — were subsequently killed during Indonesia’s 24 year occupation.

Declassified documents have shown that the United States and Australia fully supported the invasion. The reason at the time is on the public record. Australian politician Justin O’Byrne salivated in a speech to the Senate in 1973 about East Timor’s “gas and oil in quantities that could match even the fabulous riches of the Middle East.”

The New Zealand government also supported Indonesia’s invasion. A telegram sent in 1975 by Frank Corner, Secretary of Foreign Affairs, to the New Zealand embassy in Australia said: “The government had a private, and a public position on the problem. Privately, we recognised… integration with Indonesia. The government couldn’t state this openly however, and it stressed that the wishes of the Timorese people were the fundamental factor.” Throughout the 1980s and early 1990s, Western government support for the initial invasion extended to Indonesia’s ongoing occupation.

The change in policy came in 1998. The previous year, Indonesia’s President Suharto had been overthrown by a popular revolution. The new reformist government was open to greater autonomy for East Timor. Australia’s right wing Prime Minister John Howard saw the opportunity to cut out the middle man and bully a fledgling government in an independent East Timor to grab a slice of the resources. And with thousands of Australian troops on the ground effectively holding the new Fretilin government hostage, John Howard got his way.

On 20 May 2002, the very first day of formal independence for the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste, the Timor Sea Treaty was signed granting billions of dollars worth of reserves to Australia and ensuring Australian control over all exploration and processing of oil and gas in a “Joint Petroleum Development Area”.

The official account of New Zealand’s deployment to East Timor tells of the troops defending Timorese people from rogue Indonesian militia opposed to independence. “The real agenda for the UN ‘peacekeeping force’”, explained investigative journalist John Pilger at the time, “is to ensure that East Timor, while nominally independent, remains under the sway of Jakarta and Western business interests.”

Impoverished by decades of occupation and saddled with an unfavourable oil treaty, the new nation state was desperately poor. Wages were capped at US$3 a day. The UN reported that half the population were living on less than US$0.55 a day. In 2000, President Xanana Gusmao warned that East Timor’s underpaid soldiers led an impoverished “subhuman existence” and might eventually revolt. In 2006, his prediction came to pass. New Zealand troops returned to Timor Leste, again under Australian command. The uprising was suppressed. The Fretilin Prime Minister, who was courting Chinese investment to build up oil and gas processing facilities in Timor Leste, was forced to resign and a new government more compliant with Western imperialism was installed.

Solomon Islands

In 2003, New Zealand troops landed at Honiara, capital of the Solomon Islands. The official mission of the Australian-led force was to “restore order”. Five years of inter-ethnic conflict had cost more than 100 lives. Around 40,000 people had been driven from their homes. The New Zealand soldiers would stay on for a decade, and return again after that.

Prior to the 1880s, the Solomons were a collection of separate, self-governing islands. In 1883, they were colonised by Germany and Britain, forcing disparate ethnic groups with different languages and customs into a single nation.

Ethnic tensions created by colonisation were further heightened by the US occupation of the Solomons during World War Two, when they shifted the nation’s capital from the island of Malaita to a neighbouring island, Guadalcanal (known in the indigenous language as Isatabu). American demand for labour also drove mass migration of Malaitans to the new capital, putting pressure on land held by Isatabu people. Women have the primary rights to land on Guadalcanal. On Malaita, it is the men. Over time, Malaitan men married Guadalcanal women, gaining land rights on the island.

When the 1998 Asian economic crisis threw thousands out of work, simmering ethnic tensions boiled over. The Isatabu Freedom Movement launched attacks on Malaitan migrants. The Malaitan Eagle Force took up arms in response. Announcing the New Zealand military deployment, Foreign Minister Phil Goff labelled the Solomon Islands a “failed state” which needed outside intervention by Australia and New Zealand.

But the real reasons for intervention were plainly stated in a report titled Our Failing Neighbour, published in 2003 by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Firstly, “Australia’s standing in the wider world – including with the United States — is at stake.” New Zealand agreed, with Foreign Minister Winston Peters commenting in 2006 that “New Zealand’s involvement in the Solomon Islands and Timor Leste are good examples of where our international contribution coincides with American interests.” And secondly, according to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, “the collapse of Solomon Islands is depriving Australia of business and investment opportunities.”

In 1998, Australian multinational Delta Gold had opened a huge mine on Guadalcanal. The lucrative mine accounted for a quarter of the Solomon Islands economy, but the benefits did not flow to local people. The extreme inequality in the Solomons meant that in 2003, 1 percent of households were receiving 52 percent of all income. Australian intervention was not intended to change this. It was to get the gold mine, seized by Guadalcanal militants in 2000, back under Australian management. The mine did reopen under new Australian owners, Allied Gold, and two years later the last New Zealand and Australian troops left — only to return after further unrest in 2021.

Tonga

In 2006, New Zealand and Australian troops were sent to the Kingdom of Tonga — again to “restore order”. Tonga was a deeply unequal society dominated by the king and his nobles. Of the 33 MPs in the Tongan parliament, fourteen were appointed by the king for life and nine more by the 33 members of the country’s nobility. Only nine were directly elected by the “commoners”.

The royal family used their power to amass huge personal fortunes in offshore bank accounts in collaboration with international capitalists. The king made US$26 million selling Tongan passports — mainly to Hong Kong residents ahead of the territory’s transfer back to China in 1997. Forbes magazine put the wealth of his daughter, princess Pilolevu, at over US$30 million. Average income in Tonga in 2005 was less than US$40 a week.

That same year, mass protests demanding democracy saw a tenth of the total population take to the streets. A six week strike by public sector workers demanded pay rises of 60-80 percent and a Royal Commission to be established immediately “to review the Constitution to allow a more democratic government to be established.” The 2005 general election delivered seven of the nine directly-elected seats to the Human Rights and Democracy Movement, headed by MP ʻAkilisi Pōhiva.

When King Tāufaʻāhau Tupou IV died in September 2006 and unpopular Prince George Tupou V was named as his successor, popular anger boiled over into riots. Troops arrived from Australia and New Zealand to enforce martial law.

Foreign Minister Winston Peters said, “Our presence is not about taking sides. New Zealand has been fully supportive of peaceful democratic reform in Tonga.” But ʻAkilisi Pōhiva condemned the foreign intervention. The chair of the National Committee for Political Reform, Dr Sitiveni Halapua, said the foreign troops were there “to make people afraid and to support the government.” Once order was restored, ʻAkilisi Pōhiva and other pro-democracy MPs were arrested and charged with sedition.

The pressure for change in Tonga was unstoppable, but the revolutionary potential of 2006 was blunted by the New Zealand military so that when democratic reform eventually arrived four years later, the wealthy and powerful were protected. The net worth of today’s reigning king, Tupou VI, is $100 million.

PACER Plus

While direct military intervention is the most visible expression of New Zealand imperialism in the Pacific, it is only the tip of the spear. Behind the use of armed force is diplomatic pressure and the wielding of economic power over Pacific nations, including through “aid programmes” with strings attached. Aid conditions include requirements for Pacific governments to implement policies favourable to Western business interests. Sometimes they require aid recipients to spend the money on goods and services from the donor country. This “boomerang aid”, which mainly benefits Western businesses, has long been a feature of Australian foreign policy and is now part of New Zealand’s approachas well.

A clear example New Zealand’s economic imperialism is the Pacific Agreement on Closer Economic Relations (PACER) and the resulting multilateral free trade agreement known as PACER Plus.

PACER began as an attempt to sabotage the Pacific Island Countries Trade Agreement (PICTA), a Pacific-led initiative launched in 2001 to expand trade in goods among 14 members of the Pacific Islands Forum, excluding Australia and New Zealand. The sabotage was successful. Pressure was applied to Pacific nations not to ratify the deal and PICTA never came into force.

The PACER Plus free trade deal came into effect in 2020. Officials at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) say the deal will “boost sustainable economic development and contribute to a more stable and resilient Pacific region.”

But independent analyses found that the removal of import tariffs will deprive Pacific nations of $US60 million each year in government revenue, cost 75% of Pacific manufacturing jobs and have negative health impacts due to an increase in cheap, unhealthy foods as well as threats to healthy, culturally appropriate food production.

The real aims, also touted by MFAT, say that PACER Plus will “improve market access” for New Zealand businesses, “provide greater consistency, certainty and transparency trading in the Pacific region” and “generate opportunities to invest or partner with Pacific businesses.” A petition signed by 171 prominent individuals and 33 organisations in the region, including the Australian Council of Trade Unions and the New Zealand Council of Trade Unions, called on Pacific governments not to sign.

Imperialism

Imperialist expansion and domination of the Pacific has been a feature of New Zealand’s foreign policy since the earliest stages of colonisation. It is not the result of decisions taken by this politician or that political party. As Marxists like Vladimir Lenin and Nikolai Bukharin pointed out over a century ago, imperialism is an inevitable product of capitalism. Summarising their work, US socialist Brian Jones writes:

Capitalism, in its “classic” phase was characterized by competing commodity producing firms within unified national markets… Bukharin and Lenin set out to show, however, that the era of small business competition necessarily led to the creation of giant trusts and cartels.

What is a “trust” or a “cartel” for that matter? These are simply organizations within an industry or even across industries that form to confer the advantages of monopoly on their participants… Lenin uses the example of a German coal syndicate that came to dominate 87 percent of coal output in its area in 1893, and 95 percent by 1910. There are countless modern examples. The worldwide media were controlled by fifty corporations worldwide in 1983, by 2004 there remained only five. Their goal is to use their immense size to destroy their competition, not increase it. By means of buying political influence, under-selling small producers, and so on, large enterprises systematically choke to death their smaller rivals… this concentration reached a point over 100 years ago where certain industries became fused with the national state…

The national borders are too narrow for the growth of these industries, and they are compelled to constantly acquire new markets, new sources of raw material, and new outlets for investment outside the “home” nation. Once the world was already carved up among the world powers, they are forever pushed by market competition toward rearranging who owns what, and have no other way to settle who gets what except by force. Thus, the era of imperialism is one of constant economic competition between states that breaks out again and again into open military competition.

Each state may employ various policies—but imperialism is not reducible to a particular policy. The policies themselves must be seen as flowing form a worldwide system of imperialist competition.

This not only explains why New Zealand governments have always acted to suppress Pacific self-determination and to secure Western control of resources, by also why they whip up fear of “Chinese influence” in the Pacific, and why they sometimes even criticise “French colonialism”.

Liberation in the Pacific first of all requires that working people in Aotearoa see through the smokescreen of official lies about New Zealand’s role. Ultimately however, it also requires the end of the capitalist system which — to varying degrees — oppresses all of us in Te Moana-Nui-a-Kiwa.

Pacific island nations swamped by global drug trade


By AFP
October 8, 2024

Police said Wednesday they had seized enough cocaine to supply New Zealand for 30 years, after snaring a massive bundle of drugs floating in the Pacific Ocean
 - Copyright New Zealand Defence Force/AFP Handout

Steven TRASK

A surge of drugs is engulfing the paradisal South Pacific, as cartels and triads use far-flung island nations to channel narcotics across the globe, top police and UN officials have told AFP.

Pacific islands such as Fiji and Tonga sit at the crossroads of largely unpatrolled ocean-trafficking routes used to shift cocaine from Latin America and methamphetamine and opioids from Asia.

This illicit cargo is increasingly spilling over into local hands, feeding drug addiction in communities where serious crime had been rare.

“We’re a victim of our geographical location. An ideal transit point for vessels crossing the Pacific,” Tonga Police Commissioner Shane McLennan told AFP.

“We have a massive ocean territory, and we’ve got 176 islands that, by and large, are unprotected.”

Bricks of drugs are unloaded during stops in sleepy Pacific island ports, where they are repacked en route to lucrative markets elsewhere.

“The information coming our way is that illicit substances are coming through in general cargo that is shipped through Tonga,” said McLennan.

“At the moment it’s mostly methamphetamine.”

Methamphetamine use has become so rampant in Tonga — a deeply Christian nation of 105,000 people — that the Global Organized Crime Index likens it to an “epidemic”.

“It’s a problem here,” taxi driver Latimuli Taliauli, 39, told AFP as he waited for a passenger at the tumbledown Talamahu markets in Tonga’s capital Nuku’alofa.

“There are some people walking around here that are damaged from the methamphetamine,” he added, pointing out a dishevelled man staggering between rows of vegetables and local handicrafts.



– Drug highway –



Data on drug use, addiction and crime is scarce or non-existent in many of the Pacific’s developing nations.

But courthouse records show a Tongan legal system clogged with drug users and dealers, from builders and mechanics to accountants and teachers.

A teenage thief and a 20-year-old accomplice appeared before court this year for ransacking the Tonga National Museum and stealing dozens of prized artefacts, a sentencing report obtained by AFP shows.

These treasures were traded away for a single gram of methamphetamine, the report showed, a hit worth as little as US$100.

Recent busts hint at the size of the so-called “Pacific drug highway”.

Four tonnes of methamphetamine were seized in Fiji this year, concealed in plastic-wrapped packages labelled “universal tile adhesive”.

It put Fiji — a nation far better known for tourism than trafficking — on par with the “biggest” seizures reported in global methamphetamine hubs like Thailand or Hong Kong.

Cocaine started trickling through Pacific island nations at least 20 years ago, as Latin American cartels looked to feed Australia’s hunger for hard drugs.

Although Australia used only two percent of the world’s cocaine by volume, sky-high prices meant that by 2008 it was already the third most lucrative market in the world, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).



– Spreading poison –



The trans-continental cocaine pipeline has in recent years been flooded with synthetic methamphetamine and the Pacific drug trade now follows two distinct routes.

Smugglers from Latin America and the United States sail through the island chains of Polynesia, en route to Tonga, Fiji and sometimes Samoa.

On the other side of the Pacific rim, drugs cooked in the jungle labs of Southeast Asia flow down through Melanesian states like Palau and Papua New Guinea.

While cash-poor Pacific nations were only ever seen as a transit point for expensive cocaine, locals can more readily afford the cheaper, highly addictive meth.

“From what we have been gathering on the ground, it is not just in urban areas but also in villages and rural areas,” Fijian drug outreach worker Kalesi Volatabu told AFP.

“We are seeing lawlessness across the communities, in schools, and the risks and dangers in rural villages where these poisons are being spread.”

Court documents seen by AFP reference the murky presence of “organised and sophisticated drug cartels” in Fiji, and “international drug trafficking syndicates” in Papua New Guinea.

Jeremy Douglas, chief of staff at the UNODC, told AFP: “The Pacific is being used by Latin American cartels, Asian syndicates and Triads, Australian and New Zealand bikers, and US street gangs.”

Global Initiative, a Geneva-based think tank, singled out Mexico’s powerful Sinaloa cartel as “the most prominent in the arena”.



– In plain sight –




US Treasury sanctions meanwhile list the 14K triad — one of Hong Kong’s largest organised crime groups — as a major threat in Palau.

Alongside drugs, the presence of organised crime has spurred money laundering, prostitution, and illegal casinos.

Sometimes, large drug consignments are attached to buoys and left to ride the ocean currents.

New Zealand’s navy last year found a three-tonne raft of cocaine bound together with cargo netting.

Police said it had been dropped at a “floating transit point”, hiding in plain sight until it could be picked up and sailed to Australia.

“For a long time the Pacific has been a region where not too many outsiders have been engaged,” said Australian National University researcher Sinclair Dinnen.

“It’s relatively new in this part of the world. But it seems to be increasing.”

Wednesday, October 02, 2024

Climate Change and Geopolitics Collide at COP29

  • Azerbaijan's financial aid to small island nations for COP29 participation is viewed as a strategic move in its geopolitical feud with France.

  • The initiative aligns with Azerbaijan's efforts to counter France's support for Armenia and criticize its policies in the Pacific region.

  • While Azerbaijan frames its support as climate-focused, observers see it as a way to challenge France's influence and amplify its own voice on the international stage.

Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev is stoking a geopolitical grudge with France, issuing a pledge to fund the participation of small island developing states, some of which have French connections, in the upcoming COP29 environmental conclave.

Azerbaijan’s financial assistance would cover airfare, accommodation and per diems for up to four delegates for each island state participating in COP29, which will be held in Baku in November. The assistance offer comes several months after Aliyev proposed establishing a special fund to help small island states address the effects of climate change.

Azerbaijani officials portray the initiative in altruistic terms, motivated by a desire to “amplify the voices” of nations that stand to be the hardest hit by global warming and rising ocean levels.

“We will not have an inclusive process [at COP29] if we do not take every measure to ensure participation from frontline communities,” said Azerbaijan’s Ecology Minister Mukhtar Babayev, who is also president-designate of the annual UN environmental conference. “We need these perspectives and experiences to guide our approach and strongly believe in our moral duty to support these nations.”

Some observers see a more cynical purpose in packing COP29 with representatives of small island nations — a desire on Aliyev’s part to get under the skin of French President Emmanuel Macron. The two leaders have been engaged in a tit-for-tat feud for more than a year, revolving around the aftermath of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which ended with Azerbaijan’s decisive defeat of Armenian forces and Baku’s reconquest of the territory.

France has been an unwavering supporter of Armenia amid Yerevan’s efforts to negotiate a lasting peace deal with Azerbaijan, rankling Aliyev. In turn, Aliyev’s administration has antagonized the French leadership, accusing France of “neo-colonial” behavior in the Pacific region. In the late spring of this year, Paris accused Baku of stirring up separatist sentiment in the French Pacific dependency of New Caledonia, after earlier recalling the French envoy to Azerbaijan. The initiative to fund a robust islander presence at COP29 can be seen as an extension of Azerbaijan’s antagonism toward France. Aliyev is on record as saying COP29 will “spotlight” the need to protect island states from the consequences of global warming.

In August, Babayev participated in a meeting hosted by the island nation of Tonga during which participants from 56 countries, including 33 island states, signed a memorandum “aimed at enhancing climate action” beneficial to signatories. Azerbaijan announced in late September a contribution of $10 million to the group’s joint efforts to promote “climate resilience, improve disaster preparedness and support sustainable development.”

The recent UN General Assembly session in New York witnessed another round of Franco-Azerbaijani verbal sparring. Macron reiterated strong support for Armenia, saying “the international community must be there to ensure that [Armenia-Azerbaijani] peace negotiations are successful and internationally recognized borders are preserved.” The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry portrayed the French stance on the peace process “unconstructive.” Babayev, meanwhile, touted the environmental cause of small island states during the general assembly.

By Eurasianet.org