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Thursday, November 07, 2024

WE HAVE WINNERS!

‘We have won’: Russians envision new global system with Trump victory

Francesca Ebel and Catherine Belton | The Washington Post
Nov 8, 2024 

MOSCOW - Donald Trump’s stunning political comeback has created an opening for Russia to shatter Western unity on Ukraine and redraw the global power map, according to several influential members of the Russian elite.

In Moscow’s corridors of power, the win for Trump’s populist argument that America should focus on domestic woes over aiding countries like Ukraine was hailed as a potential victory for Russia’s efforts to carve out its own sphere of influence in the world.

In broader terms, it was seen as a victory for conservative, isolationist forces supported by Russia against a liberal, Western-dominated global order that the Kremlin and its allies have been seeking to undermine.

‘Irrevocably disappearing’

In his first remarks since the election, President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that the West’s post-Cold War monopoly on global power was “irrevocably disappearing” before praising Trump for behaving “courageously” during an attempt on his life this summer.

“His words about his desire to restore relations with the Russian Federation and to help resolve the Ukrainian crisis, in my opinion, deserve attention,” he said during his annual speech at the Valdai Forum in Sochi.

Members of Russia’s elite were more blunt in their response to Trump’s victory.

“We have won,” said Alexander Dugin, the Russian ideologue who has long pushed an imperialist agenda for Moscow and supported disinformation efforts against Kamala Harris’s campaign. “The world will be never ever like before. Globalists have lost their final combat,” he wrote on X.

The deputy speaker of Russia’s upper house of parliament, Konstantin Kosachev, said on his Telegram channel: “The victory of the right in the so-called ‘free world’ will be a blow to the left-liberal forces that dominate it. It is not by chance that Europe was so openly ‘rooting’ for Harris, who would, in fact, preserve the rule of the Obama-Clinton ‘clan.’”

Konstantin Malofeyev, the Russian Orthodox billionaire who has funded a conservative agenda promoting traditional Christian values on the far right and far left across the West, said on Telegram that it would be possible to negotiate with Trump “both about the division of Europe and the division of the world. After our victory on the battlefield.”


In more immediate terms, Trump’s election victory was expected to have a dramatic impact on Russia’s war in Ukraine, according to Leonid Slutsky, head of the parliament’s foreign affairs committee.

‘Matter of months, if not days’

“Judging by the pre-election rhetoric … the Republican team is not going to send more and more American taxpayer money into the furnace of the proxy war against Russia,” he said. “Once the West stops propping up [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky’s neo-Nazi regime, its downfall will happen in a matter of months, if not days.”

But others were more circumspect, and some warned that Trump’s presidency could lead to a more unpredictable era. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia would wait to see if Trump’s campaign rhetoric, criticizing support for Ukraine and calling for an end to the war, translated into “concrete actions.” Peskov declared that the United States remains “an unfriendly country that directly and indirectly is involved in a war against our state.”

Russian lawmaker Maria Butina, who served 15 months in a U.S. federal prison after being convicted of operating as an unregistered foreign agent, told The Washington Post that this was “a good chance for U.S.-Russian relations to improve.” She added, “Hopefully this time … Trump will keep his promise to truly be a peacemaker.”

In the weeks before the election, Russian officials had sought to downplay their interest in the vote, but that public stance was belied by what U.S. officials said were intensifying Kremlin-directed disinformation operations seeking to stoke chaos and target Harris. The operations built on earlier efforts to stoke isolationist sentiments, according to documents previously reported on by The Post.


In the end, Russian efforts to interfere in the 2024 election were “pretty marginal to the overall trend of voter sentiment,” said Eric Ciaramella, a former White House official now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, especially compared with 2016, when U.S. intelligence officials concluded that a Russian hack-and-leak operation had helped change the narrative in support of Trump.

Changed the mainstream political debate

But analysts also noted that more than a decade of Russian propaganda operations amplifying anti-establishment, isolationist voices through increasingly sophisticated social media operations, including on X, had changed the mainstream political debate in a way that would never have been possible via traditional media.

“On a digital platform, your ability to do these things works,” said Clint Watts, the head of Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center. After the vote, X owner Elon Musk hailed the result as cementing the power of his platform to provide alternative views over “legacy media.”

Russia’s business community also could not hide its sense of optimism that Trump’s victory would change things for the better, in the Russian view.

Shares on the Moscow stock exchange surged nearly 3% in early trading as the election results came in, amid widespread speculation that Trump could lift sanctions against Russia in return for an end to its military action.

“Trump is someone who is used to doing deals,” said one Moscow businessman, speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution. “The expectation is that under Trump, decisions will be reached faster to end the conflict and ease sanctions.”

“For big business, Trump’s election is a hopeful factor,” he added. “Sanctions are strangling the economy, and costs are soaring.”

Risks remain high

But share prices later settled, and some analysts said risks remain high that relations could run aground and that the standoff could worsen under Trump. Alexei Venediktov, the well-connected longtime editor of the Echo of Moscow radio station, said the possible Republican capture of both houses of Congress would break the longstanding deadlock in the U.S. political system, letting the government reach decisions at far greater speed and creating new risks.

The Republican majority “is the threat from the Kremlin’s point of view, because there are no internal contradictions, no internal chaos,” Venediktov said. “It was important for the Kremlin that the winning candidate was Mr. or Mrs. Chaos.”

A clear sign of the lack of Kremlin trust in President-elect Trump, Venediktov said, was Putin’s decision not to immediately congratulate him as other leaders had. “This is actually an insult,” he said. “It’s a signal.”

Putin waited until the third hour of his annual speech Thursday to congratulate Trump, first discussing inequality, artificial intelligence and climate change.

But others said Putin’s move was, in fact, a sign of the Kremlin’s growing confidence. Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected political analyst, said the expectation is that Trump will eventually, though not immediately, call Zelensky and Putin and propose a cease-fire deal along the lines of one already floated by his running mate, JD Vance, which appears to hand Russia the Ukrainian territory it already controls.


Under this proposal, a cease-fire would be reached along the current front line, together with the creation of a large demilitarized buffer zone, with new borders to be ratified under later referendums. “If everything goes okay, then Trump will lift sanctions” to pull Moscow out of China’s orbit, Markov said.

Putin unlikely to agree

But Markov and other analysts said Putin is unlikely to agree to any deal that does not include the complete demilitarization of Ukraine, which even Trump might reject. “Putin wants what no one can give him,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

One possibility, though, would be an agreement in which Moscow and Kyiv halt strikes on energy and power infrastructure, Markov suggested, an arrangement that was under discussion this summer, until Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. “This would be a colossal victory for Trump,” Markov said.

Thomas Gomart, director of the French Institute for International Relations, said other far-right and far-left political forces in Europe - many of which have been supported by Moscow - could be boosted by Trump’s win.

They could call for a U.S. rapprochement with Russia, potentially ushering in a new era in which politics would be dominated by autocrats and in which the winning coalition of Trump, Vance and Musk would introduce a new disruptive ideology. “In a sense, it could be a new realignment in Europe,” Gomart said.

“This is a very good moment against the globalist deep state,” said Jean-Luc Schaffhauser, a far-right French politician and former member of the European Parliament who once facilitated a 9.4 million euro ($10.1 million) loan from a Russian bank to the presidential campaign of the French far right’s Marine Le Pen. “It’s a moment for Europe to make a bridge with conservative America” and align with Russia, he said.

“It can be a new era,” Schaffhauser said.

Friday, November 01, 2024

 

Prioritising anti-US imperialism, Maduro’s Venezuela and the complexities of critical solidarity: An interview with Steve Ellner

Published 
Venezuela Uncle Sam

Steve Ellner is an Associate Managing Editor of Latin American Perspectives and a retired professor of the Universidad de Oriente in Venezuela. He has recently written a series of articles in Monthly ReviewScience and Society and Latin American Perspectives arguing in favour of the left prioritising the struggle against US imperialism. In this broad-ranging interview with Federico Fuentes for LINKS International Journal of Socialist Renewal, Ellner lays out his views on anti-US imperialism, how this should factor into the left’s appraisal of China and Latin America’s Pink Tide governments, and what this means for international solidarity activists.

In recent articles, you say the left needs to prioritise the struggle against US imperialism. Why is this the case?

The basic contradiction of capitalism is at the point of production, the contradiction between the interests of the working class and those of capitalists. That is fundamental to Marxism. But any analysis at the world level of the relations between nations has to place US imperialism (including NATO) at the centre. In my articles, I question the thesis on the left that there is a convergence of China and the US as imperialist powers.

The debate regarding China often centres on how one defines imperialism. How do you define imperialism? Is US imperialism the only imperialism that exists?

John Bellamy Foster points out that [Vladimir] Lenin explained imperialism as “ multifaceted”. I would add that it has two basic heads: the political-military element and the economic one. On that basis, Foster questions the validity of two opposite interpretations of imperialism.

One tendency is to equate imperialism with the political domination of the US empire, backed of course by military power, which was the view put forward by Leo Panitch and Sam Gindin. They overestimated Washington’s political ability to preserve order and stability in accordance with US economic interests. Of course, what they wrote over a decade ago appeared to be more accurate at the time than today, given declining US prestige and global economic instability.

At the other extreme are those left theorists who focus on the dominance of global capital and minimise the importance of the nation-state. They view progressive governments in Latin America as incapable of defying global capital, and Washington as the custodians of transnational capital, rather than as a defender of a range of interests, including US geopolitical and economic interests. The prime example of US economic interests is defence of the hegemony of the dollar. Paradoxically, a prime example of the geopolitical factor is weaponising the dollar in the form of sanctions, which induces nations to create mechanisms to sidestep the dollar for international transactions. The end result is the weakening of the dollar as an international currency, which is exactly what is happening.

I argue that this position, which mainly focuses on transnational capital, is somewhat misleading. In my exchange with William Robinson in Latin American Perspectives, I noted the importance of his work on transnational capital and globalisation, which I have long admired, and its political implications today. Robinson takes issue with my reference to territorial-based imperialism, saying Lenin’s theory of imperialism is “class-based”. But it is both. I am not saying that Lenin’s concept of imperialism is applicable today in all its aspects, but I disagree with Robinson’s denial of the territorial aspect of imperialism, both in Lenin’s writings and today, for various reasons.

First, in Imperialism: The Highest Stage of Capitalism, Lenin attributes World War I to the clash between European superpowers in dividing up territories now known as the Global South. What could be more territorially based than that? Second, there is a whole body of Marxist literature — [Antonio] Gramsci, [Louis] Althusser and [Nico] Poulantzas being the most important theoreticians — that questions the simplistic notion that the state consists of the dominant class, namely the capitalist class or dominant fraction of it, dominating and determining everything else. The interests of transnational capital do not trump everything else because the state is not the exclusive instrument of any one class fraction. In addition, the cause-and-effect relationship of structure and superstructure is complex, a la Althusser. That is to say, the economic interests of the transnational class do not override political, geopolitical and military considerations, which sometimes collide in the short run with economic interests.

In the long run, of course, economics and geopolitics are intricately linked, if not inseparable. Robinson and others address geopolitics, but they do not assign it the weight it deserves. In effect, transnational capital subsumes other key factors, such as their discussion of BRICS [Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa]. If geopolitics is not relegated to a superficial superstructure but considered a basic element of imperialism, then China cannot be thrown in the same category as US imperialism. How can you place the US, with its 750 overseas military bases, in the same general category as China, which has one? Washington’s military deployment throughout the world, its use of sanctions and its justification for interventionism on the basis of R2P [right to protect] or “humanitarian interventionism” have no equivalent in Beijing’s relations with the rest of the world and the South in particular.

How do you reconcile your position on the need to prioritise US imperialism with the US’ declining global influence and China’s concurrent rise?

Marxists agree that everything is in flux, and that is the case with US world hegemony. But [Karl] Marx and [Friedrich] Engels also polemicised against the utopian socialists of their day, whose futuristic visions blinded them to the reality of the present. In essence, Marx and Engels said you cannot impose the future on the present. Thus from a Marxist perspective there are two components: the dialectics which analyses the transformations embodied in the present that cast light on the future; and the importance of timing, which means there is a right time and place for everything.

With regard to US influence, sure it is in decline. But the US is hardly a paper tiger. The Gaza conflict symbolises this reality. The US and its proxy, Israel, have not achieved a military victory in Gaza in spite of the billions of dollars invested in the conflict. You might draw the conclusion that Gaza is more evidence of US decline, just like Vietnam and Afghanistan. But look at all the destruction in human lives, personal traumas and property. There is no need to go into detail about how US power in its military expression, as well as its regime change capacity and use of economic blackmail, have such a potent and destructive impact. There is no qualitative comparison with other superpowers, the Ukrainian conflict notwithstanding. And it is misleading to say “the Chinese are almost there” and will soon be just as imperialist as the US. This may eventually happen, but it is not a foregone conclusion.

I believe you raised this issue of not mixing the future and the present in your recent articles…

Yes, I did, and in different contexts. First, with regard to writers who are jumping the gun by overstating the importance of the transnational state. The transnational state is not displacing the nation-state, even while the nation-state has lost much of the fiscal leverage it had during the years in which Keynesian economics was in vogue. It has not lost its military capacity, which the transnational state nearly completely lacks. Extrapolation into the distant future is no substitute for analysis of the here and now.

An example of the global focus which plays down the nation-state is Immanuel Wallerstein’s theory that the 1968 counter-hegemonic movements from Columbia University to Mexico City and Czechoslovakia were what he called a “ single revolution”, in which local conditions were not fundamental explanatory factors. In reality, 1968 was hardly a world revolution, and in all three cases local conditions were the main drivers. One thing is the “demonstration effect”, whereby revolutionary events in one country influence politics in another country. But this is quite different from a simultaneous world revolution. Here, Wallerstein was “jumping the gun”, in that a futuristic vision of world revolution was imposed on the present.

Second, the same tendency of imposing the future on the present can be seen with those who view Pink Tide governments through the lenses of Gramsci’s theory of passive revolution and conclude that they have betrayed their movements’ original goals. These writers claim that what they call the Pink Tide’s “project” condemns those nations to a return to the oppressive social relations of the past. It may well be that Pink Tide alliances with certain business sectors that opposed regime change attempts supported by other business sectors may end up allowing a fifth column to penetrate and take complete control of those governments. But, as I argue in my Monthly Review article, what is going on in these countries is highly dynamic, making the future of Pink Tide governments hard to predict. For instance, the degree to which US imperialism suffers major blows will leave Pink Tide governments in a better position to move in the opposite direction, the direction of socialism.

In this sense, the state in Pink Tide countries is more like a battleground, as Poulantzas described, than a dual state process in which the new state displaces the old state or the old state eradicates the fledgling new state. For Marta Harnecker, both processes — the battleground of the old state and the dual state phenomenon — took place simultaneously under Chávez. In any case, this complexity is misrepresented by the determinism displayed by passive revolution writers, who argue that with governments coopting social movement leaders and granting concessions to business interests, the bleak future of the Pink Tide is inescapable.

Finally, the debate over the multipolar world slogan also involves the issue of the present and the future. Those on the left who question the progressive content of the slogan tend to conflate the two. In the future, a multipolar world may well lead to the kind of inter-imperialist rivalry that led the way to World War I. But we are in the present, not the future. In the present, the multipolar world is designed to counter US hegemony and US imperialism, which is without equal anywhere in the world.

Given all this, what are the ramifications for the US left of prioritising the struggle against US imperialism? Why should the left focus on foreign policy issues, as you argue, when workers are often more concerned with domestic politics?

Even in the sphere of US domestic politics, there are pragmatic reasons why the left needs to place greater emphasis on imperialism. The distinguishing features that separate “liberals” or centre-leftists from the left are issues related to foreign policy.

Take Bernie Sanders, for example, who I would label a liberal or centre-leftist. Following Israel’s invasion of Gaza, Sanders at first refused to call for a ceasefire, then only called for a “pause” in the fighting. As a result, he came under heavy attack from progressives and the Arab-American community. When Sanders entered the 2016 presidential race (if not earlier), he made a conscious decision to downplay foreign policy and instead stress domestic issues. He also chose to be very circumspect about what he said about US adversaries such as [the late Venezuelan president] Hugo Chávez and Cuba. This was not because he was less interested in foreign policy or has limited knowledge about those issues. Rather, as a veteran politician, he knew where the ruling class draws the line on what can be tolerated. The fact a politician such as Sanders, who calls himself a socialist and advocates fairly important pro-working-class reforms but is not anti-imperialist, was not ostracised or demonised is telling. It shows the ruling class prioritises imperialism over strictly economic demands; that it is more inclined to declare war on anti-imperialists than those who call themselves socialists.

Anti-imperialism is one effective way to drive a wedge between the Democratic Party machine and large sectors of the party who are progressive but vote for Democratic candidates as a lesser of two evils. This tendency is a major obstacle for the US left in its efforts to build an independent progressive movement. Many people reason: “I can’t vote for a third-party candidate because the danger that the right — and now with [Donald] Trump the far-right — will control the White House is too daunting.” They are right to an extent. The Democratic Party is better than the Republican Party on domestic issues, though some on the left deny this. Trump lowered corporate taxes from 35% to 21% and he screams “drill, baby drill” as a panacea to the energy crisis. The Republicans are vehemently anti-union, favour capital punishment and want to criminalise abortion. That is why it is so hard to convince voters to support third-party candidates who address their real needs.

But foreign policy is a different story. There may be differences between the two major parties at a given moment (Trump is slightly better on Ukraine than [Kamala] Harris, at least rhetorically), but as a whole both parties are equally bad. That is exactly why the Democratic Party, and liberals in general including the liberal media, shy away from foreign policy issues. If you listened to the Democratic Party convention in August, at best 2% of the speeches by speakers referred to foreign policy. And that 2% focused on the bogus issue of the need to defend US national security. The two decent things that President [Barack] Obama did — the thaw in relations with Cuba and the Iran nuclear deal — were dropped by [Joe] Biden, with no references to them at the convention. The discourse at the convention may have had an element of rationality with regard to values, and some issues of substance such as ethnic diversity, reproductive rights, etc, certainly in contrast to the Republicans, but when it comes to foreign policy it is completely irrational. The cornerstone of its narrative on the need to intervene abroad is national security. Yet there is no country in the world that threatens the US, militarily or otherwise.

The left’s message has to stress that you cannot have both guns and butter, and that the Pentagon is the number one polluter on the planet. We have to devise slogans that demand politicians (including liberal ones) and the corporate media address these issues.

Another reason why anti-imperialism needs to be emphasised is that it provides progressive governments in the Global South with breathing space. This allows them the chance to move forward with their progressive agenda in a democratic setting, and to deepen their nation’s democracy. In the case of Venezuela, such breathing space may have changed the course of events at a time when US aggression had a devastating effect and limited the government’s options. From Cuba and Venezuela to the Soviet Union, the Pentagon’s strategy has always been to force adversary governments to allocate immense resources to their armed forces in order to undermine their consumer economy, knowing full well that no country can match the US on the military front.

Does prioritising anti-US imperialism mean the left should turn a blind eye to the shortcomings of governments under attack from US imperialism?

No, they should not. Some on the left say otherwise. They say the left in the Global North should not criticise progressive Global South governments and that its sole duty or role is to oppose imperialist intervention. But criticism of errors is essential and nobody can, or should, question the right of anybody to formulate criticisms. However, those who are critical need to seriously consider the knotty issue of how and when to criticise anti-imperialist governments or other governments under attack from US imperialism.

Take, for instance, Hamas’ actions on October 7 and Israel’s subsequent invasion of Gaza. The pro-Palestinian solidarity movement is divided between activists who disagree with Hamas’ incursion and others who defend it on grounds of the right to resist. Those in the first category face a dilemma. They have a legitimate position, which those in the second category should respect in the name of unity. But it would be damaging to the cause, for example, to criticise October 7 at a rally protesting Israel’s genocide in Gaza. Referencing October 7, albeit passingly, would dampen the enthusiasm of protesters. There are other reasons why the solidarity movement may want to avoid any passing reference to October 7. Doing so may run the risk of playing into Israel’s hands by implying that both sides are equally responsible for a conflict that has brought such immense suffering to the Palestinian people. Another reason is that passing references can simplify and decontextualise Hamas’ decision and the strategy behind it.

One way to look at it is to consider that freedom of speech is not an absolute principle — it depends on the circumstances. In certain situations, such as wartime, there are limitations. The same can be applied to strategic decisions by solidarity activists regarding criticisms of the governments they are defending.

What about a country such as Venezuela, which is not engaged in a military war with US imperialism and where there are clearly different approaches towards its government on the left?

Venezuela has been in a war-type situation for many years. Prior to Chávez, no Venezuelan economist would have imagined that if the country could not export oil the government would survive for more than a week. That is exactly what the sanctions are all about. On top of that you have had assassination attempts against the president, months of violent regime-change disturbances, an invasion by mercenaries from Colombia, an attempted coup, and abundant evidence of sabotage, including through cybernetics — the latest documented in Anya Parampil’s book Corporate Coup. These were all engineered or actively supported by the US. The coup attempt in April 2019, for instance, went hand in hand with the Trump administration’s explicit call on the Venezuelan military to overthrow Maduro.

Some left analysts fault Maduro for taking off the gloves and not abiding by the norms of liberal democracy. In some cases, the criticisms are valid but they have to be contextualised. Furthermore, how liberal is US democracy? And the US is hardly being threatened by a foreign power, the ludicrous Russiagate scandal notwithstanding.

The issue is that often criticisms are seen as “aiding” US imperialism’s campaign against Venezuela. Are there no limits when it comes to muting criticisms?

You have to draw a line in the sand. Electoral fraud, for instance, is unacceptable. Furthermore, no criticism should be vetoed, it is just a question of context; that is, under what circumstances do you formulate the criticism. In addition, we have to recognise that certain situations constitute grey areas in which left analysts cannot be certain of all the facts. In those cases we can only make educated guesses and need to recognise there are important gaps in what we know that cannot be easily filled. The left has to make an effort to define these grey areas to distinguish what we know for certain.

For instance, after the first sanctions were imposed on Venezuela with the Obama executive order in early 2015, and then scaled up by the Trump administration which called for a military coup, one grey area was the Venezuelan military. There was no way for an analyst who lacked inside information to really know what options Maduro had. The calls for a military coup by the world’s foremost military power undoubtedly strengthened the hands of Diosdado Cabello, the number two man who has close ties with the military and does not have Maduro’s leftist background. It is easy to say Maduro should have responded to the threats by radicalising the process, which is what several Venezuelan Trotskyist parties advocated. Maduro went in the opposite direction by making concessions to the private sector. As a result, he lost the backing of the Communist Party of Venezuela.

There were some on the Venezuelan left who told me at the time that the Chavistas should have given up power so as not to be identified with the terrible economic conditions resulting from US sanctions. That position underestimates the importance of state power. Lenin recognised this. What would history have been like had Lenin relinquished power in response to the extreme hardships caused during the period of War Communism?

But what if, in the name of holding onto state power, electoral fraud is committed? How should the left deal with this?

As I said above, electoral fraud needs to be ruled out, and for various reasons not just ethical ones. But in the case of Venezuela there are complex issues. Those who claim that fraud was committed on July 28 need to factor them into their analysis.

For example, a victory for the opposition would most likely have resulted in a bloodbath against the Chavistas and others as well. The candidacy of Edmundo González was deceptive because he was a mere puppet; the real candidate was María Corina Machado. Some analysts pointed to González’s conciliatory tone, but he was not and is not calling the shots — everybody knows that. If you look at Machado’s statements over the years, you will see her plan was to “neutralise” Chavismo, a euphemism for Pinochet-style repression that goes beyond the organised left.

Recognising how formidable the challenges facing the Chavista leadership are can help break down the divide between those on the left who claim fraud was committed and those who do not. One key question is the following: is there a significant area of convergence — or unity — taking in those who validate the official results of July 28 and those who question them. I believe that, as tenuous as that coexistence may be, there is a potential that needs to be encouraged.

Several factors would bolster such a relationship. First, recognising that the violence and destabilisation following the July 28 elections was in large part undertaken or promoted by organised domestic and external political actors, as the Maduro government has documented in some detail. Second, questioning the official results should not imply accepting the results announced by Machado-González. Discrepancies in their statements regarding the number of voter tally sheets in their possession and the total lack of transparency in the opposition’s presidential primaries last October are just two of many reasons why their pronouncements should not be taken at face value. And third, a convergence of Maduro supporters and left critics should be based on recognising certain positive features of his government. His foreign policy tops the list, but there is more. As harsh as the criticisms of his domestic policies may be, the claim that Maduro is a bona fide neoliberal is untenable. Left critics point to the government’s failure to fulfil Chávez’s plea of “ Commune or nothing.” Nevertheless, the government has provided the communes with a degree of support, in the context of a rank-and-file impetus. Its record on this front is mixed, but it has positive aspects, as Chris Gilbert points out in his recent book on the subject.

I am not saying the issue of the July 28 elections should be swept under the rug or placed on the back burner. But the discussion should not get in the way of the larger issue, which is US imperialism and recognising that the Maduro government’s errors have to be contextualised. Its errors, to a large degree, are erroneous reactions to US imperialism. That, however, is not to minimise the gravity of the errors or to absolve leaders of responsibility for committing them.

Where does this leave us more generally? There will always be certain issues that we cannot be too sure of. Does this mean we can throw certain issues into the too-hard basket?

I am certainly not proposing a post-modernist philosophy, or that there are many truths. No, there is only one truth and we should strive to know what it is. But at the same time, we should attempt to determine grey areas, where we recognise we cannot come up with definitive conclusions because not all the facts are clear. In situations like this, we should be especially tolerant of opposing views on the left. This is what Mao called “the correct handling of contradictions among the people.

I am also not saying that July 28 is one of those “grey areas”. But I am saying that much of what led up to July 28 consists of grey areas. One example that I gave was the situation within the Venezuelan armed forces, which may have limited Maduro’s options. For this reason, I am in favour of greater tolerance between pro-Maduro Chavistas and many of their left critics — as difficult as that may be.

Does prioritising US imperialism mean we cannot extend solidarity to, for example, workers striking against Brazilian and Chinese capitalists, to pick two examples of governments in conflict with US imperialism?

Certainly not. The left needs to support workers’ struggles against companies owned by Brazilian and Chinese capitalists, or those of anywhere else for that matter. That is a dimension no one on the left can downplay.

But its importance should not eclipse the geopolitical dimension. The importance of geopolitics is underrated by those who accuse solidarity activists of being “ campist” or belonging to the “ Manichean left,” an unfortunate term used by Robinson in a recent article, and which I take up in the Science and Society symposium. Robinson invokes the term to refer to honest revolutionaries, such as Vijay Prashad, simply because they praise the Chinese leadership. In doing so, Robinson fails to underscore basic distinctions between the Chinese state, state capital and political leaders, on the one hand, and Chinese private capital on the other. In the same breath, he slams solidarity activists such as CODEPINK, even though that organisation is rather neutral on the internal politics of other countries. Leftists, and solidarity activists in particular, have the right to prioritise anti-US imperialism without being accused of Manichaeism. The use of the term should be left to the McCarthyites on the right.

Similarly, the term “campist” is applied to leftists who supposedly reduce all conflicts to the clash between US imperialism and its adversaries, specifically Russia and China, and prioritise the struggle against US imperialism. It is assumed that they are blind to exploitation by capitalists who are outside of the US camp and that they blindly support all US adversaries.

Take the case of the Ukrainian conflict. Few leftists defend Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but most leftists do not align themselves with Ukraine’s side in the conflict. One exception is Howie Hawkins, the Green Party’s presidential candidate in 2020, who used the term “campist” to criticise a recent statement arguing that NATO provoked Russia into invading Ukraine. Hawkins makes the accusation without indicating whether or not the authors of the statement defend [Vladimir] Putin’s decision to invade. A big chunk of the anti-war movement does not approve of Russia’s invasion, and even suggests territorial ambitions are at play, but believes NATO deserves the greater part of the blame. That position may be open to debate, but it is a far cry from being “campist” or located in the pro-Russian camp.

Hawkins takes issue with “partisans of states” that challenge Western dominance and support multipolarity, claiming they see China as leading the way. The pro-China “campist” category assumes that Cold War II is a rerun of Cold War I, when Communist parties were aligned with, and loyal to, the Soviet Union. But Chinese Communist leaders, unlike those of the old Soviet Union, are not for the most part exporting any model. And not many on the left defend the Chinese model per se. Those who praise China are mainly praising its foreign policy, which is based on the principle of defence of national sovereignty. Talk of “campism” is a throwback to the Cold War when leftists were told they had to balance criticism of US policy with criticism of the Soviet Union. The price you paid for refusing was getting called a “fellow traveller,” at best.

That said, there are people and groups on the left who align with China, not only because of Beijing’s foreign policy, but because they are attracted to the Chinese model. We have to take off the blinders to objectively analyse the Chinese case. I am not an expert on the subject, but I know enough to say that what is happening in China is as important for the left to analyse as it is complex. Attacking China supporters through the use of shibboleths reminiscent of the old Cold War gets in the way of much-needed, open and honest debate.

There can be a problem though when prioritising US imperialism leads to a kind of “lesser evil” politics in which genuine democratic and worker struggles are not just underrated, but directly opposed on the basis that they weaken the struggle against US imperialism. Is there ever a case when geopolitics should trump solidarity and the rights of others in struggle?

No. One does not negate the other. But the issue you raise can be viewed from a broader perspective. The organised left in the Global North is divided in three categories. Some leftist activists form part of the anti-imperialist movement; others, who identify as orthodox Marxists, prioritise the working class; and others are social movement activists involved in struggles around racism, immigration, reproductive rights, LGBTQ+ issues, etc. The banners of all three reinforce one another, as intersectionality brings together different oppressed groups.

At the same time, there are discrepancies and tensions between these activists. This is natural and inevitable. If the post-Marxists and post-modernists are correct about one thing, it is that social and political movements for change in contemporary society are more complex, at least on the surface, than was the case 100 years ago. That said, there is much room for debate to determine priorities and strategies. For example, a number of articles in Jacobin criticise the identity politics of some social movements for viewing class as just one more identity. Another example is the works of the Italian Communist Domenico Losurdo, who viewed anti-imperialism as the main driver of leftist advances beginning in 1917.

In my recent articles, I take issue with anti-Pink Tide writers who see worker and social movement mobilisations as practically the only driver of progressive change, while leaving anti-imperialist governments largely out of the picture. But my articles also call into question the validity of an exclusively geopolitical focus. We are not quite in a situation like World War II, when Communists promoted a no-strike policy for the labour movement. The exclusively geopolitical focus falls short in many situations. For instance, it may justify Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, without considering political options available to Russia as a response to NATO expansion and threats. Also, the logic behind the exclusively geopolitical focus is to place [former Iraqi leader] Saddam Hussein in the same anti-imperialist category as Chávez, since both were subject to Washington's regime-change schemes, without considering domestic factors that clearly differentiated the two.

My main point is on the need to be realistic. Much open discussion is needed and should be welcomed. But we are not going to arrive at a blueprint or even a synthesis because societal contradictions are just too profound. We can, however, aim for common denominators based on common assumptions.

One of those assumptions is that anti-US imperialism has to be prioritised, though of course not as the only priority. Take the debate around BRICS and the banner of a multipolar world. Some leftists recognise the importance of BRICS in undermining Washington’s weaponisation of the dollar in the form of sanctions against Cuba, Venezuela, etc, while questioning the goal of multipolarity as a long-term strategy. Maduro and many of his staunch defenders see it as a fundamental tool in advancing toward socialism. Those are differences that we can live with. But I do not see any easy reconciliation with those who completely deny the importance of the multipolar world slogan and who lash out at the Maduro government for being a pro-neoliberal sellout. These writers tend to argue that US imperialism is not the only bully on the block. This may be the case, but it is certainly by far the most dangerous one.

This discussion has been quite clarifying. Is there anything else you would like to add?

Sure. Certain policies and actions by anti-imperialist governments and movements in the Global South are unprincipled or blatantly incorrect and need to be criticised in no uncertain terms. Others are less black and white and involve complex issues. With regard to the second category, the left should not overemphasise criticisms; it needs to contextualise them and should be careful as to when and how such criticisms are formulated. Distinguishing between the two categories requires serious consideration. The use of simplistic terms such as “Manichean left” and “campist” impedes much-needed objective analysis and belies the complexity of what probably will be a relatively long path of socialist transition.

Steve would like to thank Andrew Smolski for his useful insights regarding the issues raised in this interview.

Monday, October 28, 2024

SLAVO UKRIANA

'Wiped off the face of the Earth': How Russia erased a Ukrainian city

Boris BACHORZ
Sun 27 October 2024 

Part of the ruined centre of Ukrainian city of Vovchansk in mid-September (Handout) (Handout/Armed Forces of Ukraine/AFP)

"It barely exists anymore," said the mayor of Vovchansk, an industrial town razed by a Russian onslaught shocking even for the killing fields of eastern Ukraine.

Vovchansk has no great history but its geography could not be more tragic. Just five kilometres (three miles) from the Russian border, drone footage from the Ukrainian military this summer shows a lunar landscape of ruins stretching for miles.

And it has got worse since.


"Ninety percent of the centre is flattened," said mayor Tamaz Gambarashvili, a towering man in uniform, who runs what is left of Vovchansk from the regional capital of Kharkiv, an hour and a half's drive away.

"The enemy continues its massive shelling," he added.

Six out of 10 of Vovchansk's buildings have been totally destroyed, with 18 percent partially ruined, according to analysis of satellite images by the independent open-source intelligence collective Bellingcat. But the destruction is much worse in the city centre, which has been levelled north of the Vovcha River.

AFP and Bellingcat joined forces to tell how, building by building, an entire city was wiped off the map in just a few weeks -- and to show the human toll it has taken.

The sheer pace of the destruction dwarfed that of even Bakhmut, the "meatgrinder" Donbas region city where some of the most brutal killing of the war has been done, a Ukrainian officer who fought in both cities told AFP.

"I was in Bakhmut, so I know how the battles unfolded there," Lieutenant Denys Yaroslavsky insisted.

"What took two or three months in Bakhmut happened in just two or three weeks in Vovchansk."

- Invaded, then freed -

Vovchansk had a population of about 20,000 before the war. It now lives only in the memories of the survivors who managed to flee.

Beyond its factories, the city had a "medical school, a technical college, seven schools and numerous kindergartens," Nelia Stryzhakova, the head of its library, told AFP in Kharkiv.

It even had a workshop that made "carriages for period films. We were even interesting, in our own way," insisted Stryzhakova, 61.

Add to that a regional hospital, rebuilt in 2017 with nearly 10 million euros ($10.8 million) of German aid, a church packed for religious feasts, and a vast hydraulic machinery plant. Once the town's economic lifeblood, its ruins are now being fought over by both armies.

Vovchansk was quickly occupied by the Russian army after it invaded Ukraine in February 2022, but was then retaken by Kyiv in a lightning counter attack that autumn.

Despite enduring regular Russian bombardment, it was relatively calm. Then something very different happened on May 10.

- Badly defended -

Exhausted after weeks of hard fighting 100 kilometres to the south, the Ukrainian 57th Brigade was regrouping near Vovchansk when one of its reconnaissance units noticed something strange.

"We spotted two Russian armoured troop carriers that had just crossed the border," recalled Lieutenant Yaroslavsky, who was leading the unit.

They were the advance guard of one of the most intense Russian offensives since the beginning of the war, with Moscow throwing several thousand soldiers at the city.

"There were no fortifications, no mines" to slow down their advance, Yaroslavsky said, still furious at the "negligence or corruption" that allowed this to happen.

Some "17,000 people lost their homes. Why? Because someone didn't build fortifications," fumed the 42-year-old officer.

"We control the city today, but what we control is a pile of rubble," he added bitterly.

President Volodymyr Zelensky cancelled an overseas trip to rush to Kharkiv, admitting that the Russian army had pushed between five and 10 kilometres into Ukraine.

The people of Vovchansk, meanwhile, were living a nightmare.

- 'Drones like mosquitoes' -

"The Russians started bombing," said Galyna Zharova, who lived at 16A Stepova Street -- an apartment building now reduced to ruins, as images analysed by Bellingcat and AFP confirmed.

"We were right on the front line. No one could come and get us out," added the 50-year-old, who now lives with her family in a university dormitory in Kharkiv.

"We went down to the cellar. All the buildings were burning. We were crammed into basements (for nearly four weeks) until June 3," her husband Viktor, 65, added.

Eventually, the couple decided to flee on foot. "Drones were flying around us like wasps, like mosquitoes," Galyna remembered. They walked for several kilometres before being rescued by Ukrainian volunteers.

"The city was beautiful. The people were beautiful. We had everything," sighed librarian Stryzhakova. "No one could have imagined that in just five days, we would be wiped off the face of the Earth."

The 125,000 books in the library she had run at 8 Tokhova Street went up in smoke.

More than half of the families in eastern Ukraine have relatives in Russia. In Vovchansk, before the war in the Donbas region began in 2014, people crossed the border daily to shop, with Russians flocking to the city's markets.

"There are many mixed families," said Stryzhakova. "Parents, children, we're all connected. And now we've become enemies. There's no other way to put it."

The Russian defence ministry did not respond to AFP's questions asking for its account of what happened in the city.

Mayor Gambarashvili, who was hit in the leg by shrapnel as he oversaw the city's evacuation, shook his head when asked to estimate the number of civilian casualties.

Dozens, no doubt. Perhaps more. There were still around 4,000 people in Vovchansk on May 10, mostly older people, since most families with children had been evacuated months earlier.

- Families divided by war -

Kira Dzhafarova, 57, believes her mother, Valentina Radionova, who had lived at 40 Dukhovna Street in a small house with a charming garden, is likely dead.

Their last phone conversation was on May 17. "At 85, I'm not going anywhere," her mother insisted. Satellite images and witnesses have since confirmed that the house was completely destroyed.

"Since then I know it's over," sighed Kira, who provided DNA for identification, if and when the fighting ends.

In a particularly cruel irony, her mother, a Russian national, had moved to Vovchansk so she could be equidistant between her two children, who had fallen out.

Kira has lived in Kharkiv for 35 years and became officially Ukrainian two years ago. Her older brother, who she believes supports Russian President Vladimir Putin, remained in Belgorod, the family's hometown and the first big Russian city on the other side of the border.

Kira, a psychiatrist, now only refers to him as her "former brother".

AFP was unable to contact him directly.

Volodymyr Zymovsky, 70, is also missing. On May 16, he decided to flee the bombardment in a car with his 83-year-old mother, his wife Raisa, and a neighbour. Zymovsky and his mother were both shot dead, "most likely by a Russian sniper", Raisa said.

Amid the hail of bullets, the 59-year-old paediatric nurse had barely got out of the car when she was grabbed by Russian soldiers and held for two days. She managed to escape, hid in a neighbour's cellar for a night, and eventually fled through the forest.

She recounted her harrowing odyssey in a calm, measured voice. One thing alone seems to matter to her now: finding the bodies of her husband and mother-in-law and giving them a proper burial.

- 'They took my son' -

A rumour has circulated among the survivors that the bodies that littered the streets of Vovchansk for days were thrown into a mass grave. Where and by whom, no one knows.

A handful of civilians still remain in Vovchansk. Oleksandre Garlychev, 70, claims to have seen at least three when he returned to his former apartment on a bicycle in mid-September to retrieve belongings.

Garlychev lived at 10A Rubezhanskaya Street, in a southern part of the city that was relatively spared. He only left on August 10.

Vovchansk's survivors -- and even a few of its officials -- quietly wonder whether it will ever be rebuilt given its proximity to the border, regardless of how the war ends.

Asked whether she could ever forgive her husband's killer, Raisa Zymovska fell silent for a long time. Then, in a whisper, she replied: "I don't know, I really don't. As a Christian, yes, but as a human being... What can I say?"

As for the librarian Stryzhakova, she can no longer bring herself to open a Russian book, even the classics, since her only son Pavlo was killed in the Battle of Bakhmut.

"I know that literature is not to blame, but Russia, all of it disgusts me. They took my son, it's personal."

Faithful try to keep flame of flattened Ukraine city alive

Boris BACHORZ
Sun 27 October 2024 

Father Igor and his flock outside their church in Vovchansk before it was razed (-) (-/HANDOUT/AFP)


Vovchansk's copper-domed basilica was always packed at feasts like Easter, with worshippers overflowing out into the Ukrainian city's central square.

But Father Igor Klymenko's displaced congregation -- forced from their homes by a Russian onslaught that has pounded their border city to dust -- was reduced to just nine on the autumn morning AFP caught up with them in the nearest big city, Kharkiv.

"The strongest people, truly the strongest, stayed" in Vovchansk, said the bear-like bearded cleric. "They are there behind me," he added, gesturing to the few women in headscarves and white-haired men, heads bowed in prayer behind him.

"And they too left after May 10," when Russia launched a military assault of rare ferocity even for the killing fields of eastern Ukraine.

Ninety percent of central Vovchansk has been razed, according to the city's mayor -- worse even than the destruction of the "meat grinder" that was Bakhmut -- and the shelling is still going on.

Even so in June, the orange-bricked mass of the Myrrh Bearers Church still stood stubbornly intact amid the devastated centre of the city, where 20,000 people once lived.

No longer. Little more than a few charred walls are visible in satellite imagery this month analysed by Bellingcat, the open-source investigative collective that has been working alongside AFP to see what has happened to the city.

- Sliced by shrapnel -

Ever since Father Igor was made parish priest in October 2022 when Vovchansk -- which is only five kilometres (three miles) from the Russian border -- was briefly retaken by Ukraine, he has lost count of the number of his flock who have perished.

The first was Olga, "killed by shrapnel in our vegetable patch on a Sunday."

It was on October 8, 2023. "She had gone to fetch carrots to bring them back to the church, when shrapnel sliced into her."

Father Igor -- a cheery man with a striking resemblance to the famously humble Orthodox saint Seraphim of Sarov -- is not originally from Vovchansk.

He was parish priest in the neighbouring village of Rubizhne, where he also ran a farm.

"I had a horse, two bulls, two sows, 12 piglets and hens. We had to abandon Rubizhne on May 22 when it was our turn to be bombarded. We left everything behind. All I was able to take were the holy books and objects from the church," he said.

- 'Pray for us, it is hell' -

Father Igor is 55, "but everyone thinks I'm 70", he laughed.

He gave his last sermon in Vovchansk on May 5. He was to return as usual the following Sunday, "but on the night of Thursday May 9 to May 10, everything began.

"Raisa (one of his parishioners) messaged me in the middle of the night. 'Father, pray for us, because here it is hell,'" she told him.

"She called me back in the morning and I could hear shells bursting, bursting," he recalled, emotional at the memory.

Raisa Zymovska's husband Volodymyr was killed, most likely by a Russian sniper, during their attempt to flee Vovchansk by car on May 16.

Father Igor recently celebrated a funeral mass "in absentia" at a Kharkiv cemetery -- a rite that offers a symbolic burial for the soul -- for all the dead whose bodies were left behind.

- Humble endurance -

The cleric belongs to the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which answers to the Moscow Patriarchate which has blessed the invasion.

An Orthodox Church of Ukraine independent from Moscow was created in 2018 -- and the schism is an extremely sensitive subject. Father Igor begged not to talk about such "politics" in a region where people have relatives on both sides of the border.

His parishioners have lost everything in Vovchansk. But have kept their deep faith, their sense of solidarity and their staggering endurance.

Seventy-year-old Oleksandre Garlychev risked his life to briefly return to his home last month "to collect parts for my car", a 44-year-old Soviet GAZ-24 Volga, he said with a smile.

"But mainly for my hymn book, which I have used for 24 years. We need more goodness, more compassion between us," he said.

bb/ju/fg

Thursday, October 17, 2024

THE NON-RUSSIAN RUSSIA: THE DECOLONIAL LITERATURES


People and Languages Reduced to Tourist Brochures

To regional officials and entrepreneurs, the relatively unknown linguistic and ethnic diversity within the Russian Federation is a great resource. Travel agencies use enticing terms like “northern nomads” or “Siberian shamans”. Read Stefan Ingvarsson's essay about the projection of language and people in today's Russia.


CREDITSTEXT: STEFAN INGVARSSON 
 OCTOBER 17 2024

In Moscow, a grand, interactive exhibition opened last fall, where each of the country’s regions shows off its distinctive character, attractions, advancements, and progress. Close to a tenth of Russia’s total population has visited the pavilions to date, according to official numbers, and the whole thing should be considered a tremendous success for the official self-image. The area is described as a large-scale projection of the vast, mighty Russia in all its diversity and abundance. One explicit goal is emphasizing how multifaceted the country is. To an outside observer, this may seem quite unexpected. Have the leaders of the country finally decided to change course from uniformity to acknowledging diversity. Isn’t this what Russia’s nearly two hundred ethnic groups have long been hoping for?

To foreign visitors, the impression of homogeneity has always been striking. Like many empires, the Russian and Soviet ones have left layers of uniformity behind, a monotonous repetition of government buildings, housing projects and railway stations. Anyone who’s formed an idea of the country through the window of a Trans-Siberian Railway car tends to conclude that the largest state in the world is remarkably one-note. Sure, there is variation depending on whether buildings are tsarist or Soviet, Stalinist or bear the stamp of the Brezhnev-era prefab blocks, but across thousands of miles from Moscow to Vladivostok, these fluctuations occur within a limited architectural framework. In addition, modern-day Russia has erected an astonishingly monotonous set of offices, shopping malls, and public monuments. The landscape doesn’t change a whole lot either, until the train nears Lake Baikal – traveling through similar-looking taiga forests with a few birch trees sprinkled in.

It is in light of this uniformity – which does represent one side of the coin – that regional tourism offices in Russia have shown such an interest in minority cultures. Finding whatever differences can be found following a century of exceptional, and often violent, homogenization. Until recently, the Russian middle class was a hard-to-please demographic, preferring to visit other parts of Europe, Turkey, Egypt, or Thailand – but during the pandemic, and especially following Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, more and more people are choosing to vacation domestically. At the same time, the number of foreign tourists in the country plummeted, and the hospitality industry has been bending over backwards to attract new visitors. The industry has shifted gears to court domestic and Asian audiences. The number of Chinese tourists is slowly growing. The main draws are dramatic mountain ranges of the Caucasus and the Altai, the bears and volcanoes of Kamchatka, the warmth along the Black Sea coast, and the distinctly German atmosphere in the preserved suburbs of Kaliningrad. In the hunt for hotel guests, or simply in efforts to put one’s own region on the map, there is careful stocktaking of whatever stands out.

To regional officials and entrepreneurs, the relatively unknown linguistic and ethnic diversity within the Russian Federation is a great resource. Travel agencies use enticing terms like “northern nomads” or “Siberian shamans.” Any Komi, Evenk, Nenets, Nganasan, or Altaians willing to package their handicraft, songs, dances, traditional dress and dwellings in a way that benefits local tourism can count on support and revenue, not to mention some long-awaited visibility. Provided, that is, that they choose expressions that fit into the pre-approved image of patriotic unity within a “large and diverse” Russian nation, as is the officially mandated formula. A nation that now lays claim to the occupied, and since September 30, 2022, formally annexed, parts of Ukraine. These, too, are now included and, as such, are a natural part of the great expo in Moscow.

Indigenous peoples and minorities with few other options – in other words, those most vulnerable and marginalized – are particularly exposed to this new attention. It is hard to turn down visibility and opportunities that have rarely been on offer before. Especially if one’s own language and culture are under threat. The picture looks slightly different in regions characterized by fairly large minorities like Tatars, Chuvash, Mari, Tyvans, Buryat, or Ingush, or regions like Dagestan or Bashkortostan where groups other than ethnic Russians make up the majority. Here, minority languages have been in stronger positions and had significant institutions, but even these federal subjects are now being controlled by elites mainly seen as guardians of Moscow’s interests, and even in these regions, there is pressure to force one’s own culture and identity into a limited and simplified box. Not unlike the great expo.

Russia is not only the largest country in the world; it is also in a phase of territorial expansion. The ideological foundation of this expansion – and thus of the war of aggression against Ukraine – can be summed up by the term “the Russian world.” It is the belief in “Russian civilization” as wholly unique, but it also contains the claim that this “Russian world” does not end at the current borders of the Russian state. In this view, Russia extends to wherever someone claims to belong to that world; anyone who speaks Russian or has a Soviet background is welcome. What is proven by the war of aggression in Ukraine is that no one is expected to reject such an offer. The brutality wrought upon Ukrainian civilians by the Russian state sends a clear and horrific message, not just to Russia’s other neighboring countries, but in equal measure to the non-Russian population within the country itself. The attempt to invade Ukraine was preceded by several years of rolling back the rights of non-Russian peoples. And among those currently being mobilized as cannon fodder in this war, those peoples are clearly overrepresented. The situation was already difficult for many groups looking for a way to survive; it has now become critical.

To provide more specific examples, I’d like to bring you to the inland of the Kola Pensinsula, to a village I visited a few years ago with writer and journalist Liza Alexandrova-Zorina. She grew up in this landscape of lakes and mountain birch. Spoken here, sixty or so miles east of the border with Finnish Lapland, was the now-extinct language of Akkala Sámi, an Eastern Sámi dialect. In the last three decades, a handful of languages have gone extinct within the borders of the Russian Federation, while about twenty others risk facing the same fate very soon. Different reports give slightly different estimates since language activists and researchers use differing criteria, and since few have access to a truly comprehensive picture.

In the Soviet Union, like in the Nordic countries, the Sámi endured harsh assimilation policies. This could mean forced slaughter of entire reindeer herds and the relocation of former fishermen or reindeer herders to places where collective farms, mines, and large forestry operations were established. Many Sámi, primarily men, also fell victim to the terror of the Stalin era and were imprisoned or executed. Following World War II, Akkala Sámi was spoken by a small group of women who had managed to survive and hold on to their identity. Most of them married men recruited to the peninsula as workers from elsewhere in the Soviet Union, many of them miners from Ukraine. Around these parts, Sámi identity and Sámi customs mixed with newly arrived ones. If anything was passed down, it was passed down by the mother. The last woman fluent in Akkala Sámi passed away in 2004 and the language died with her, but in the small village of Jona, there are still women who protect their Akkala Sámi roots and know a few words and sentences in the language of their grandmothers. Some of them joik in a mixture of Russian and Sámi. Opinions differ among the women of the village on how to ensure the survival of their Sámi heritage. Some cling for dear life to what is known about and preserved from the culture of their foremothers, while others, in the time before the war and the closing of the borders, traveled to Norway and got their hands on blue gáktis in a cut that never existed in this part of Sápmi. Women in such colorful and more complete ensembles are rewarded by local authorities and brought on stage for local holidays and festivals. On those occasions, no mind is paid to whether clothes, drums and joiks are truly local or have been borrowed from other Sámi traditions.

The tiny fragment of Sámi descendants in the village is too small and under too much outside pressure for these differing views on their shared heritage to cause any true enmity, but the difference in attitudes does create obvious tensions. One woman feels she has made a connection with beings in the surrounding landscape and now considers herself a noaidi. She has acquired a drum in Norway. More traditionally minded women dismiss this as pure fancy with no basis in the customs they have inherited. They let their spiritually reborn neighbor do her thing, but fiercely cherish whatever has been passed down to them, even if it is incomplete and rife with holes. The woman with the drum, in turn, is convinced that local customs will go extinct unless elements are borrowed from a still-living Sámi culture, and in comparison, the Sámi cultures of her neighboring countries seem vibrant and well on their way to recover from a form of oppression not entirely unlike theirs. To the women of Jona, the Sámi of Norway are almost strong enough to be an assimilating force in itself, given how little remains of their own heritage.

Before Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine, this tiny fragment of Sámi women wouldn’t dare meet foreigners without prior approval from the FSB security agency. Today, all contact with the Nordic countries is cut off and would be downright dangerous. It was because the Sámi had ties across borders that they were persecuted and executed by Stalin’s secret police, and today, they are afraid of history repeating itself. The border with Finland is not a well-guarded fence but a firebreak through a forest. Yet it seems more and more like a new iron curtain.

It is increasingly evident that the emperor of the newly reborn Russian Empire has no clothes. The violence the Russian state is perpetrating against civilians in the occupied parts of Ukraine speaks volumes about the true view of national community in Putin’s Russia. This may not have been a coherent ideology at first. The inner circle around Putin tried out different political strategies, but over time a beaten path becomes accepted as truth. Historically, Russian nationalism has made no distinction between East Slavs who trace their roots back to medieval Rus. “Being Russian,” or perhaps more accurately “being of Russia,” where the ”Russian world” reaches far beyond the borders of the Russian Federation, is definitely inclusive of, and open to, any Ukrainian who chooses to belong, but any Ukrainian who holds on to the notion that their culture is distinct from Russian culture becomes an enemy in need of reeducation, deportation or, ultimately, execution. Even non-Slavs are included in this “Russian world” if they agree to certain common codes and the centrality of the Russian language. This inclusion is not free of problems, particularly for those whose looks don’t read Slavic, but any identities that once served as alternatives to being Russian/being from Russia are being pushed down. The sole exception is Chechnya, functioning as a de facto satellite state. Russia is more centralized today than ever before. This is the paradox behind the multitude of customs and traditional clothing on display at the Moscow expo. Past empires that were ruled from Moscow and St. Petersburg relied on a high degree of autonomy for the peoples they conquered or offered protection. With the exception of Stalin’s time in power in the Soviet Union, none of them hold a candle to the Russia of today in terms of top-down control. During Putin’s public addresses and state ceremonies, TV cameras zoom in on lamas, muftis, and rabbis in traditional garb in the back rows, while the Orthodox Patriarch is always at the very front. A new message is conveyed about a vast and varied nation recognizing its diversity, albeit one where the Russian people, the Russian language and the Russian Orthodox Church serve to lead, unite, and uphold the state.

How, then, does this mesh with the growing visibility of minorities in travel brochures and at cultural festivals? Since Vladimir Putin came to power, linguistic and cultural rights have been under heavy attack. In 2018, education in any language other than Russian was made optional by a new federal law. This applied to the so-called national federal subjects or republics. Historically, these regions have given special status to their titular nationality, such as the Komi in the Komi Republic or the Khakass in Khakassia. Preceding the new language legislation was an official visit to the republic of Mari El in 2017, during which Putin expressed the opinion that forcing people – ethnic Russians being the implication – to learn a language other than their native tongue in school was unforgivable, while also draining resources from important Russian classes. This comment was made regarding the then-compulsory Mari language classes for all residents of the republic. His statement was met by acts of protest in the neighboring republics of Tatarstan and Chuvashia emphasizing the importance of their respective native tongues. Mikael Nydahl tells me about Putin visiting Chuvashia as well around the same time, and local leaders changing all the bus stop signs, which were usually bilingual, to Russian-only signs. Following his visit, the bilingual signs were put back. Nevertheless, all resistance had been squashed within a year. In line with increasing repression against independent media and civil society in general, organizations representing ethnic minorities in each region were seen as a potential venue for resistance and were pushed down or banned. Anything that might be able to channel for discontent or dissent is removed in today’s Russia. Conditions for minority languages in the Russian Federation have changed radically over the past six years. Languages that used to be mandatory for everyone in a republic are now relegated to a facultative periphery where they are expected to wither away. The repressive political line is suspicious of all forms of ethnically based organizing.

In 2019, the new language policy was met by a one-man protest in Udmurtia’s capital Izhevsk. Albert Razin, an Udmurt researcher and activist, took a stand outside the regional parliament holding two posters. One of them read, in Russian: “If my language dies tomorrow, then I’m ready to die today,” and the other asked: “Do I have a fatherland?” The first poster quoted Dagestani poet Rasul Gamzatov, who wrote in his native tongue of Avar. Remaining in that position for a while, Razin then set himself on fire and later died from his burns.

Self-identified Udmurt people currently make up a little over a third of the population in the republic where they are the titular nationality. Fewer and fewer speak the language. The capital is a center for domestic arms production, led by the world-famous Kalashnikov factories. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, malls in the city have been converted into drone factories. Russia’s need for munitions creates new jobs, which in turn attract workers from far beyond the borders of the republic. Earlier legislation would have ensured their children learned basic Udmurt in school and knew a thing or two about the culture that shaped these areas; today, they will at most see some local handicraft at a city festival. It is not without reason that a new generation of Udmurt activists embrace Razin as a role model and a whistleblower.

Things are progressing along a few contradictory paths. One of them leads through the travel brochure version of diversity seen at the Moscow expo and at televised state ceremonies. To those who lack other options, this heavily conditioned form of visibility may offer some hope. Another path is lined with decisions revoking language rights and canceling funding for some organizations representing ethnic minorities while banning others. Beneath these two paths is a third, one more difficult to spot, driven by the will to say something true about oneself, one’s home and one’s history. This path finds ways forward that can’t always be controlled or banned.


Stefan Ingvarsson works as analyst at Stockholm Center for Eastern European Studies, SCEEUS. He has a background in publishing, journalism and literary translation. From 2015 to 2020 Stefan was the cultural council at the Swedish embassy in Moscow. Before that he worked as the producer of the international festival Stockholm Literature at Moderna Museet.

Tuesday, October 15, 2024

Imperialism as antagonistic cooperation

Published 
Biden Xi

In the months before US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s uneasy visit to Beijing last year, the CEOs of J.P. Morgan, Starbucks, Apple, General Motors, and Tesla had amiable meetings with former Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang.1 Reaffirming what Xi Jinping and other Chinese ministers have declared on an annual basis, Qin assured Elon Musk that China “remain[s] committed to fostering a better market-oriented, law-based and internationalized business environment.”2

What some pundits label the decoupling of strategic industries in this period of intercapitalist tensions must be critically examined. Economic interdependence has shown surprising resilience even across rival geopolitical blocs. Existing theories of imperialism fail to fully account for these seemingly contradictory dimensions of today’s world system. Tricontinental theorizes the current stage of imperialism as “hyper-imperialism,” characterized by a unipolar “US-Led Military Bloc” as the sole imperialist force that renders all other global contradictions secondary or “non-antagonistic.”3 For the authors at Tricontinental, this imperialist bloc is being challenged by a multipolar “socialist grouping led by China,” representing “growing aspirations for national sovereignty, economic modernization, and multilateralism, emerging from the Global South.” Such a perspective disregards the implications of both the interdependence between the two blocs and the emergent role of certain intermediate economies — for example, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia — in developing regional hegemonies that facilitate imperialism amidst geopolitical tensions.

In contrast to Tricontinental, some see the form of imperialism today as an interimperialist conflict in the same vein as the First World War, which Bolshevik revolutionaries V. I. Lenin and Nikolai Bukharin first theorized.4 This view overly downplays the decline of US hegemony while overestimating the rise of new imperialists as a counterbalance to US imperialism. These faulty conceptions are two sides of the same coin: they overstate the dynamics of rivalry, thus obscuring salient sites of interconnection in the imperialist system that can yield powerful opportunities for solidarity across antisystemic struggles.

Of course, deep antagonisms between nations nonetheless exist and have already generated a disastrous human cost, as in the US-Israeli assault on Gaza and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But, we must not miss capitalism’s readjustment of its own constitution to develop new terms for recovery and stabilization. Antagonistic cooperation, a conceptual framework developed by Marxists in postwar Germany and Brazil, provides the best tools for analyzing this particular stage of imperialism. Unlike the unipolar theorization of Tricontinental or the multipolar rivalry of those following the Bolshevik theorists, which both overemphasize rivalry between imperialist powers, antagonistic cooperation understands the imperialist system as an interdependent totality that can accommodate interdependence between and beyond geopolitical blocs. Additionally, unlike the two models described above, antagonistic cooperation also allows for heterogeneity of power relations within this paradigm even as the overall structure of dependency between core and periphery economies continues to exist. For one, the rivalry between the United States and China does not imply their equality in the global imperialist system, which is still led and dominated by the former. What Claudio Katz calls “empires-in-formation,” and other intermediate or subimperial countries, are also cultivating the ability to occasionally check US power through military, economic, or other means.5 But this signals neither an anti-imperialist affront to US hegemony nor a straightforward leveling of the playing field as a new terrain of interimperialist rivalry.

Antagonistic cooperation must also be distinguished from different individual (or branches of) capitalists competing with each other for profits while maintaining the system as a whole as a class. The concept specifically denotes how, as Enrique Dussel puts it, “the international social relation of domination between national bourgeoisies determines…the transfer of value in world competition.”6 In other words, antagonistic cooperation concerns the terms in which the relations of domination between nations take shape today. This essay identifies and explores three main characteristics of antagonistic cooperation: 1) the coexistence of a degree of antagonism between imperialist countries, empires-in-formation, and other intermediate, subimperial, and regional hegemons with their interdependence and cooperation; 2) the key role intermediate and regional economies play in maintaining global accumulation by developing a degree of political and economic autonomy to interface between geopolitical antagonisms; 3) the ever-deepening fusion of finance and state-led industrial capital that secures these two characteristics.7

Defining antagonistic cooperation

In the 1960s, the Brazilian Marxist collective Política Operária (POLOP) gathered socialists from different traditions to investigate the role of the national bourgeoisie in periphery countries within a larger imperialist world system. They developed the concept of antagonistic cooperation, first coined by German communist August Thalheimer in his 1946 pamphlet, Basic Principles and Concepts of World Politics after World War II (Grundlinien und Grundbegriffe der Weltpolitik nach dem 2. WeItkrieg). POLOP encountered Thalheimer’s ideas through its Austrian-born member Erich Sachs, who had been exposed to Thalheimer and Bukharin during his brief stay in Moscow as a Jewish refugee in the 1930s.8 In his pamphlet, Thalheimer observes that though the fundamental contradictions of capitalism only sharpened (verschaerft) in the wake of the Second World War, unlike the outcome of the First World War, “the acuteness of inter-imperialist antagonisms has been interrupted (“den innerimperialistischen Gegensaetzen die Spitze abgebrochen”).9 He admits that, within the imperialist camp, “not all antagonistic forces have disappeared, but the fundamental result is the predominance of their unity over the two remaining groups: the Soviet state with its sphere of influence and the group of colonial and semi-colonial nations.”10 Thalheimer takes the example of the shifting relationship between the United Kingdom and the United States after the war, arguing that United Kingdom’s subordination to the US imperialist bloc does not mean the former has lost all its autonomy. On the contrary:

Although the United States is the military, economic, and ultimately political leader, it is not the sole determinant. There is a kind of interpenetration of mutual imperial interests and domains. It is both cooperation and competition, whereby cooperation predominates. One could use the term “antagonistic cooperation,” coined in physiology. Cooperation against the abolition of colonial rule and exploitation in general and against the socialist sphere, and competition for a share in the exploitation of the colonial territories. Both this cooperation and this competition are taking on forms of their own.11

Thalheimer’s conception of antagonistic cooperation illustrates how a single dominant hegemon does not foreclose the possibilities of antagonisms in its bloc, though such forces can unite to maintain the dependency of periphery economies. This relation of dependency is, as Dussel defines it, a moment in the competition of national capitals itself on a global scale.12 So, more accurately, we can modify Thalheimer’s definition and consider antagonistic cooperation a particular stage of imperialism in which the terms for competition between national capitals take shape through or are mediated by the “interpenetration of mutual imperial interests and domains,” rather than cooperation and competition as distinct tendencies.13 Thalheimer also reminds us that the “form” of antagonistic cooperation “is not fixed once and for all.” This framework does not completely preclude the reemergence of intensified interimperialist rivalry as in the First World War, but characterizes a particular stage of the imperialist system upon the rise of US hegemony.

Thalheimer’s view of imperialism treats the world economy as a kind of interdependent totality, building on Bukharin’s understanding of imperialism as a distinct stage of capitalism in which “the capitalist relations of production dominate the entire world and connect all the parts of our planet with a firm economic bond. Nowadays the concrete manifestation of the social economy is a world economy. The world economy is a real living unity.”14 Bukharin sees that rivaling national economic blocs may arise within this interdependence in the form of “state capitalist trusts.” Bukharin writes: “Being in opposition to each other, these trusts are rivals not only as units producing one and the same ‘world commodity, ’ but also as parts of a divided social world labor, as units which are economically complementary. Hence their struggle is carried on simultaneously along both horizontal and vertical lines: this struggle is complex competition.”15 The expansion of finance capital fortifies this unity, as “monopolistic employers’ associations, combined enterprises, and the penetration of banking capital into industry created a new model of production relations, which transformed the unorganized commodity capitalist system into a finance capitalist organization.”16 The expansion of finance capital fortifies this unity, as “monopolistic employers’ associations, combined enterprises, and the penetration of banking capital into industry created a new model of production relations, which transformed the unorganized commodity capitalist system into a finance capitalist organization.”17 Rather than tending to equilibrium, this “living unity” of imperialism that Bukharin describes tends toward unevenness in maintaining the expansion of profits on a global scale.

POLOP extends this analysis to differentiate periphery economies. Its members argue that the antagonistic cooperation of the world economy propels the peripheries’ uneven development. This unevenness helps develop a certain degree of political and economic autonomy for some nations despite the persistence of dependency. POLOP member Ruy Mauro Marini — most known for his theorization of subimperialism — builds on Ernest Mandel to explain that periphery economies are not homogeneously dependent on the core in the same way. Like Mandel, Marini distinguishes a semiperipheral layer of semi-industrializing countries (like Brazil) from other periphery regions. Marini observes that the speed of technical progress in advanced countries compelled capitalists to replace their fixed capital before it fully wore out (what Marx calls moral depreciation), and so, “these countries increasingly found it necessary to export equipment and machinery that had become obsolete to the periphery before they fully depreciated.”18 This bolstering of certain dependent countries leads Marini to believe that dependency is malleable and dynamic, and it “affect[s] different Latin American countries in diverse ways, according to their specific social formations.”19 Mandel describes this incongruity as “inter-zonal differences of development, industrialization and productivity [that] are steadily increasing.”20 As Katz notes, the approach to unequal exchange and dependency that Marini and Mandel endorse tracks “the heterogeneous dynamic of accumulation, which increases the disparity between the components of a single world market as it expands.”21 In other words, the antagonistic cooperation of the imperialist system also complicates a straightforward understanding of the polarization between the core and the periphery.

This understanding of core/periphery relations as uneven and dynamic entails, as Thalheimer correctly argues, that the form of antagonistic cooperation is not fixed. Marini’s analysis enables us to recognize a certain degree of political and economic autonomy among lesser Western imperialist countries subordinated to the US bloc and in the intermediate economies below the upper rungs of imperialist countries. Other theorists of POLOP further explore this analysis to unpack how some countries cultivate contradictory political relations with other imperialist powers in the world system. POLOP’s 1967 program articulates that an interdependent and cooperative capitalist system can make room for different kinds of antagonistic relationships between states: “With the postwar development, the imperialist system has entered the phase of antagonistic cooperation. This is a cooperation aimed at the conservation of the system and which has its basis in the very process of centralization of capital, and which does not eliminate the antagonisms inherent in the imperialist world. Cooperation prevails and will prevail over antagonisms.”22 As Sachs explains in another essay:

[This antagonistic cooperation between rivaling imperialist powers] finds its logical extension in the relations between them and the national bourgeoisies of the underdeveloped capitalist world. In Latin America and Brazil, this has had the following general consequences: a) a limited field of maneuver for the native bourgeoisie, who have periodically been able to exploit the contradictions between imperialist powers (the United States, England, Germany, etc.) to improve their own positions; b) an acceptance of and growing dependence on the domination of US imperialism in an economic association, in which imperialist capital participates in industrialization, occupies virtual command positions and decisively influences the pace of economic activity.23

In other words, these intermediate economies can play an indispensable role in facilitating the operations of the imperialist system without necessarily challenging or joining the ranks of major imperialists. The subimperial autonomy of such regimes, guided by their “native bourgeoisie” seeking to maximize their profits in the world market, may even buttress the power of existing imperialists. From the perspective of the dominant imperialists, the developing political power of certain intermediate economies can also provide opportunities to secure the expansion of capital against working-class unrest.

We may extend Leon Trotsky’s formulation of uneven and combined development — which he describes as “an amalgam of archaic with more contemporary forms (of production)” to understand the heterogeneity of intermediate economies. While intermediate states like Turkey, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (despite their continued ties to the United States) are developing relatively autonomous spheres of political and economic hegemony in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa, they are, strictly speaking, not imperialist formations. However, such levels of independent regional influence mean that subimperialism is not always a useful analytic. These intermediate economies show that countries can project hegemonic forms of regional power robust enough to check imperialism without becoming full-fledged imperialists or anti-imperialist forces. This schema permits us to understand how the rise of international financial institutions and multinational firms affords unprecedented cooperation in the global capitalist class, which can remain durable in geopolitical crises. As Sachs writes:

Antagonistic cooperation does not free the capitalist world from internal shocks at all levels, ups and downs. There are moments when antagonism seems to predominate, when the national bourgeoisies threaten an “independent” foreign policy, rebel against the schemes of the International Monetary Fund, and nationalize particularly unpopular foreign companies. The same phenomenon occurs among the imperialist powers themselves in moments of periodic relaxation of international tension. It disappears when there is a new upsurge in international tension and, as in France in 1968, when the capitalist regime is put in check. In the long run, cooperation for the maintenance of the system prevails.24

This model of cooperation can thus account for substantial instances of disruption. Sachs’s example of the national bourgeoisie occasionally rebelling against the IMF proves particularly prescient in understanding the actions of BRICS today. These reactions testify to the real existence of crises and instability in the era of imperialist antagonistic cooperation, which is itself situated in a broader geopolitical consensus committed to preserving the expansion of capital accumulation.

The strength and relevance of POLOP’s framework of antagonistic cooperation lies in its recognition that capitalism can creatively renegotiate new terms for survival. On the other hand, Tricontinental’s hyperimperialism thesis mistakenly sees the China-led multipolar order as an opportunity to break from the reproduction of the capitalist economy. Some adherents of the theory of revived interimperialist rivalry argue that today’s profitability crisis may compel more military confrontation among imperialists to stabilize the system.25 While this is not incorrect, we must not overlook how such conflicts would take shape through a deeper nexus of intercapitalist interdependence than obtained in the systemic crises of the 1890s and 1930s (resolved by full-scale global warfare). However, we must also not mistake this interdependence for an inert tendency of the system toward equilibrium. In reality, the maintenance of this cooperation requires continual upkeep, especially as the capitalist system is forced to address the repeating appearance of crises stemming from its internal contradictions. The crises of profitability in the 1970s and the 2000s, for example, required fundamental transformations in how capitalism is organized in order to restore growth (and the suppression of working-class insurgency).

Thus, the terms for cooperation must be consciously reinvented to be maintained. Indeed, the Soviet Union’s collapse threatened the stability of interimperialist cooperation. Another POLOP member, Victor Meyer, presages that “competition among cartels progressively increases, regional defensive blocs multiply, and they clash with each other” and “conflicts born within the capitalist system tend to become fiercer.”26 But Meyer underestimates the strength of the integration of nation-states into the international financial system. This process continues to propel the expansion of accumulation into new markets, even as rivalries deepen. Without downplaying the ever-present threat of antagonistic crises and rivalries between states, this analysis foregrounds the capacity of the imperialist world system to maintain cooperative dynamics to maximize paths for global accumulation. However, we must not mistake this striving for the guarantee that they can successfully restore a new long wave of peaceful growth of profits. As Mandel points out, subjective factors like “intensified class struggle” and other social forces also help determine whether “capital can implement the restructuring necessary to decisively redress the rate of profit.”27 Nonetheless, this framework helps explain the durability of the capitalist system — despite heightening internal antagonisms. While US unipolarity has cohered the capitalist world system for decades, the United States may be joined by a host of new actors in this role.

Antagonistic cooperation today

The interdependence between the United States, Russia, and China shows that even the most threatening antagonisms cannot fully sever the ruling class’s commitment to global accumulation. The role of finance capital in structuring the world economy that Bukharin tracks has grown to monstrous proportions today — a key engine that has allowed capitalism to continually displace its contradictions into new geographies, as Rosa Luxemburg and David Harvey have theorized. Stephen Maher and Scott Aquanno identify the “formation of a new finance capital” after the 2008 financial crisis, as the rise of asset managers has concentrated capital to an extreme degree through their ownership of highly diverse portfolios of industrial and other corporate firms.28 The United States still retains its predominant role in facilitating this system. For example, Paolo Balmas and David Howath show that the growing internationalization of the renminbi through investment channels does not supplant the dollar’s hegemony.29 This concentration of capital that persists through national rivalries exemplifies Nicos Poulantzas’s treatment of the capitalist state as a “strategic field and process of intersecting power networks, which both articulate and exhibit mutual contradictions and displacements.”30 Maher and Aquanno, analyzing the resilience of the US Fed despite Donald Trump’s efforts to contain it, pinpoint “institutional barriers circumscribing ‘political’ interference were reinforced by the organic linkages between the financial branch and the financial system.”31 Internal processes within states connect with global financial forces to counteract efforts to completely unify the different ruling classes’ interests at the level of the state. The antagonistic cooperation of the world system exacerbates these contradictions between the state and the capitalist classes, generalizing them on a global level. National development and industrial policies pivotally depend on global finance, as states take on more financial risk to expand capital accumulation. This convergence of finance and industry has readjusted the terms of imperialist dependency in the peripheries. Development no longer functions as the antithesis of neoliberalism, but, as Verónica Gago writes:

The developmentalist moment, if we no longer oppose it to financial hegemony and its colonization of the state in the last decade of the twentieth century, could then be seen as a moment of internalization of neoliberal power, which is boosted through rentier resources, intertwining elements that seemed contradictory (and that continue to be so according to certain rhetorics): rent and development, renationalization of companies and increased financialization, social inclusion and mandatory banking.”32

A major consequence of this global reorganization of capital is an unprecedented level of economic interdependence among the financial and industrial institutions of new rival geopolitical blocs. For one, Vanguard is now one of the largest shareholders in both Exxon and the Chinese state-owned Sinopec. Despite the emergence of geopolitical tensions between the West and the BRICS bloc alongside other “refurbished state capitalisms,” as Christopher McNally puts it, the latter “are deeply enmeshed in the global political economy and their practitioners own immense amounts of global financial assets, most significantly US treasury debt. Both models of capitalism are thus simultaneously co-dependent and in competition.”33 Ilias Alami and Adam Dixon go further to say that the world economy today features “not a clash of neatly distinct, rival models of capitalism, but multilinear, hybrid, recombinant landscapes of state intervention, which both shape and are shaped by world capitalist development.”34 Not all economies outside the Western bloc that have developed some degree of political and economic autonomy are equivalent: Brazil and China, for example, do not play the same geopolitical function. In any case, this “asymmetric multipolar world order” still features the United States at its helm, as Ashley Smith describes, but with new challengers like China, Russia, and other regional ones that the United States cannot fully control, in which “countervailing tendencies mitigate them from developing into open warfare.”35

In this sense, the framework of antagonistic cooperation enables us to understand how US imperialist dominance can coexist with emergent imperialists, lesser imperialists, subimperialists, and other regional hegemons. For example, Western sanctions on Russia for the invasion of Ukraine have not led to a straightforward severing of economic interdependence. Chevron, Mobil, and other Western firms continue to support Russian gas through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (which has seen an increase of $200 million in revenue between 2023 and 2024).36 One set of capitalists’ push for decoupling faces resistance from counterparts within their own ranks.37 And so, new forms of state power and geopolitical blocs do not signify that all major capitalists share the same interests as their own national states. In particular, German and American corporations have been eager to call for the stabilization of relations between the United States and China. The competition between Chinese planemaker Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) and Boeing did not obstruct a new joint agreement to deepen collaboration at a joint research center in late 2022.38 Most COMAC supply chains still involve Western firms. Despite new Chinese sanctions on Raytheon early last year, the company continues to play a significant role in supplying materials for China’s domestically produced jets through its subsidiaries.39 Raytheon’s chief executive Greg Hayes admits it still has “several thousand suppliers in China and decoupling … is impossible.” The rise of public-private partnerships is another expression of this desire against decoupling, evidenced by the growth of companies like Yanfeng Automotive Interiors, the world’s largest auto interiors supplier, jointly owned by a Chinese state-owned enterprise and a global multinational corporation, or other joint ventures around the world between Chevron and Sinopec. Researchers from the Bank for International Settlements reported last year that while supply chains are becoming longer and more indirect, they have not grown more dense — suggesting that China remains a key player in global supply chains.40

The growing complexity of supply chains also reflects the power of mid-sized and other regional states to mediate the terms of the imperialist system. From the United Arab Emirates’s role in shaping the conflicts in Sudan and Yemen to Iran’s regional hegemony in the Middle East, more and more countries far from the upper rungs of the imperialist system are developing their own extractive, imperialist-like, spheres of influence. And while US hegemony and structures of dependency persist, empires-in-formation and intermediate economies play increasingly important roles in mediating the imperialist system. Katz perceives that “intermediate formations occupy a significant place that breaks the strict parallel between subimperial powers and economic semi-peripheries, as the geopolitical weight of some countries differs from the integration into globalized production achieved by others.”41 Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Israel, Tanzania, and Mexico, among other countries, are playing both sides with the US and China to fund new developmental projects, which, as Seth Schindler and Jessica DiCarlo put it, “are more than manifestations of geopolitical competition—they are also constitutive of regional, national, and local visions and aspirations.”42 US tariffs negatively impact Chinese imports, but the latter continues to boom for items from electric vehicles to batteries. The drop in Chinese imports to the United States in 2023 is linked to the rise in Mexican imports: Chinese businesses are rerouting commodities to the United States through Mexico to avoid tariffs — a phenomenon some have labeled nearshoring. Tanzania and Kenya have courted IMF and Chinese loans to further privatize domestic resources in the name of development.43 Earlier in June, Kenyan President William Ruto secured billions of dollars from the United States to construct a new railway mere days after confirming China’s support in extending an existing railway.44 He states Kenya is “neither facing West nor East; we are facing forward where opportunities are.” These instances exemplify what Patrick Bond identifies as an often understated aspect of unequal ecological exchange, which recognizes that imperialist dependency is not challenged, but rather “facilitated by BRICS extractivism” when factoring in “depleted non-renewable resources, local pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and unpaid social reproduction of labor” in the global South.45 In this sense, empires-in-formation, subimperial, and other intermediate countries provide an outlet for the contradictions of imperialism to be mollified — at least for the foreseeable future.

That said, we must not downplay the antagonistic part of this cooperation. Catastrophic wars of national oppression still erupt, as Palestinians, Tigrayans, and Ukrainians have witnessed in recent years. Karl Kautsky’s theory of ultraimperialism, which sees the capitalist system developing into a peaceful period of “a federation of the strongest, who renounce their arms race,” remains false.46 Lenin and Bukharin’s dictum still rings true: socialists must staunchly organize against our own countries’ imperialistic tendencies, no matter how economically connected or disconnected they become. But for now, objective conditions prohibit us from drawing a strict definitive line between rivaling imperial blocs as different state capitals continue to overlap. The increased integration of state-owned enterprises into global finance reinforces an unprecedented level of intercapitalist collaboration and economic interdependence — but one that is more unstable than ever. This reality reflects a dynamic that neither interimperialist rivalry nor Kautsky’s ultraimperialism can fully account for. Indeed, global economic integration still existed in salient forms during the First World War, but mostly just contained within geopolitical camps, which historian Jamie Martin calls “strained interdependence.”47 However, the rise of neoliberalism has developed a level of interdependence that endures even across rival state blocs, thus undercutting the possibility of open interimperialist warfare witnessed in the first two World Wars.

So, we must consider how new overseers of the imperialist world system dictate new terms for how these antagonisms take shape, amidst entrenched interdependence between states and firms. Azerbaijan’s ethnic cleansing of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh shows the interconnections between the West and Russia, despite Putin’s colonial invasion of Ukraine. While the West has looked to build links with Azerbaijan to tap into its oil resources as an alternative energy source to Russia, Azerbaijan has also deepened links with Russia to import its gas to keep up with this demand. Turkish imports of Russian crude oil also reached an all-time high late last year, with a Russia-Turkey gas hub in the works.48 It is doubtful if the drop in Russia-Turkey trade this year, thanks to pressure from US sanctions, would persist, especially with the deal signed last year between Russia’s Lukoil and Azerbaijan’s Socar to enable the Turkish STAR refinery to expand production. Turkey’s balancing act rests on the country’s hopes to benefit from playing different sides by laundering Russian gas to the West as “Turkish gas” (thus bypassing US sanctions). US ally India now imports 40 percent of its crude oil from Russia — a 1000 percent increase since Russia’s war on Ukraine started in 2021.49 Such links are particularly notable in the case of Israel. While the United States undoubtedly remains the decisive sponsor of Israel’s genocide in Palestine, as Michael Karadjis observes, “the main culprits” who are keeping Israel’s oil and coal supply running to maintain its war efforts are those countries that “have been publicly critical of Israel’s actions, including BRICS members Russia, Brazil, Egypt and China.”50

Israel’s ongoing genocidal onslaught on Palestine is a sharp reminder that the current iteration of antagonistic cooperation does not erase the existence of the core-periphery relation that structures imperialism, but maintains it with new actors and dynamics. Marini and Mandel’s amendments to models of dependency provide a crucial starting point for understanding this. Their framework registers how the semiperiphery unevenly combines core and periphery aspects. On the other hand, an orthodox core-periphery model does not account for this unevenness outside of core economies. An adequate understanding of today’s economy precisely rests on this differentiation among the periphery and semiperiphery economies, as they can now cultivate increasingly autonomous spheres of influence without challenging US dominance of the world system. While the United States remains Israel’s staunchest ally and military supplier, Israel’s trade with China has skyrocketed in recent years. Upon Israel’s genocidal leveling of Gaza, China has rightly pressured Israel for a ceasefire, but nonetheless, still reaffirms the two-state solution. As Israel has looked to diversify its political and economic allies, China balances its deep commitments to both Israeli and various Arab bourgeoisies by endorsing a highly compromised vision of Palestinian sovereignty. In response to the Houthis’s threats in the Red Sea in solidarity with the Palestinian liberation struggle, China responded by pressuring Iran to rein in the Houthis.51 The point is not that China plays just as disastrous of a role as the United States in the genocide in Gaza, but that, at decisive moments, it helps to uphold the global imperialist order, rather than upending it as a genuine counterweight to empire. The antagonistic cooperation of the world system accommodates rivalry without fully disrupting the ruling class’s collective drive toward global capital accumulation. Contemporary antagonisms in the world system have only reconfigured the terms in which global accumulation continues, without positing alternatives for a more democratic and liberatory social order.

Resisting antagonistic cooperation

Antagonistic cooperation requires constant upkeep and reinvention through new techniques, as capitalists still struggle to recover profitability and productivity in the face of overaccumulation.52 However, the constant denominator of each phase of imperialism remains the same: the active suppression of proletarian power. Geopolitical antagonisms may — but not necessarily — create better conditions for struggle. POLOP helps us understand how the bourgeoisie of subimperial countries can deepen exploitation in their own countries as they grant concessions to anti-imperialist and progressive forces in movements from below. Countries that play a subimperial or lesser imperial role from the perspective of value transfer in the world system may also express imperial modes of domination by other means, like resource imperialism in their own internal colonies.53 Thus, effectively building a global movement to challenge capital that links proletarian forces from the core to the peripheries demands a clear understanding of how imperialism functions today.

An inadequate understanding of imperialism can lead to dangerous political errors in the work of socialist internationalism. On the one hand, subscribing to an orthodox model of interimperialist rivalry that overestimates the decline of US hegemony risks downplaying the enduring force of the US empire in containing avenues for struggle through a variety of means, from its military capacity (evidenced in the genocidal destruction of Gaza) to its soft power through non-governmental organizations, human rights organizations, among other institutions. For one, while Ukraine has every right to defend itself against Russia’s colonial invasion, pro-Ukraine solidarity groups on the left must do more to disentangle its struggle for self-determination from NATO — an imperialist formation that has harmed many communities across the world.54 As Gilbert Achcar writes, socialist support for Ukrainian self-determination is not unconditional: we must “oppose anything that might tilt the balance toward turning this war into an essentially inter-imperialist one.”55 On the other hand, underestimating the role of intermediate, regional, and lesser imperialist powers in maintaining the imperialist system amidst US hegemony can lead to a problematic illusion that such forces represent an alternative to imperialism. Such a belief has induced some to apologize for or ignore the crimes of such states against their workers, national minorities, and other democratic movements.56 Groups like the Party for Socialism and Liberation, for example, have uncritically supported reactionary regimes that peddle anti-imperialist rhetoric, like the Syrian and Nicaraguan governments, even as they brutalize dissidents in diverse opposition movements by pigeonholing them all as lackeys of US imperialism.57

Understanding the world system’s antagonistic cooperation can expose the ideological fictions, like the so-called “New Cold War,” mustered by rivaling imperialists and other regional hegemons. This could provide opportunities for socialists to articulate links between struggles that do not falsely champion any one capitalist state as a stalwart of anti-imperialism or democracy against another. Rather than endorsing the threatening agenda of such states — exemplified by the uneven degrees of militarization of the Indo-Pacific by the United States and China, socialists can target sites of collaboration between capitalist powers that persist despite their antagonisms. For example, the Palestinian Youth Movement’s “Mask Off Maersk” campaign pressures Maersk, the world’s largest shipping and logistics company that plays a pivotal role in facilitating trade for most major geopolitical actors, to cease arms shipments to Israel.58 The Chinese diaspora-led Palestine Solidarity Action Network has developed a campaign against Chinese state-owned companies like Hikvision that are complicit in Israel’s surveillance of Palestinians, while promoting ongoing boycotts and actions against Western firms for Chinese-speaking audiences.59 Such efforts invite Sinophone communities to join with others to recognize the intersections of US and Chinese power in their mutual economic support of Israel’s apartheid state, thus expanding the scope of the BDS movement and Palestinian solidarity struggle in the United States. In another case, the Counter-Summit against the IMF and the World Bank in Marrakech in 2023 gathered over 170 grassroots organizations from the global North to South. It released a comprehensive set of demands that “reject all forms of oppression, domination, imperialism, and foreign military interference that threaten peace and national sovereignty, whatever their origin (French, American, Chinese, Russian).”60 Recent mass protests emerging from cost-of-living crises for working-class communities in Argentina, Sri Lanka, and Kenya all implicate their regimes’ dependency on both US-led and Chinese institutions to varying degrees. These movements are based on the correct understanding that complicity between various imperialist and other hegemonic formations facilitates global capitalism. A renewed antiglobalization movement building on such existing struggles is possible and necessary, as it can address interdependent roots of social ills, and provide opportunities for international solidarity and struggle that refuse to sacrifice the struggles of one people against oppression for another.

Far from undoing the neoliberal world order, the capitalist class innovates new terms for maintaining and reforming globalization. Theories of imperialism must account for economic barriers that prevent a clean break in today’s geopolitics. Indeed, the sphere of politics can act autonomously in relation to that of economics. But, we must also not underestimate how the persistence of tendencies that maintain globalization still plays a crucial role in determining the limits of politics. Moreover, understanding such dynamics can expose new sites of global working-class and anti-imperialist solidarity against ruling elites who strive to contain these possibilities in their rivalry and cooperation. Thus, the struggle against Western imperialism demands expanding our horizons to target the innumerable ways Western imperialist institutions and other imperialists are entangled. Supply chains, public-private partnerships, the portfolios of Blackrock and Vanguard, international climate agreements between national bodies, and the IMF — such actors can be crucial sites of struggle. From Blackrock’s neoliberal post-war reconstruction plan for Ukraine to jointly owned enterprises between US and Chinese state capital, there are many opportunities to develop an internationalist horizon from existing regional movements. Working-class struggles have already made crucial nodes of antagonistic cooperation visible in recent years. It remains for the left to build organizations and political strategies to further articulate them as salient sites of revolutionary struggle.

Promise Li is a socialist from Hong Kong and now based in Los Angeles. He is a member of Tempest Collective and Solidarity, and has been active in higher education rank-and-file union work, international solidarity and antiwar campaigns, and Chinatown tenant organizing.