Showing posts sorted by date for query VOLCANO. Sort by relevance Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by date for query VOLCANO. Sort by relevance Show all posts

Saturday, May 23, 2026

Rediscovering science: new knowledge hidden in old data



The next scientific breakthrough may come not from new experiments, but from rediscovering knowledge hidden in old data




Advanced Institute for Materials Research (AIMR), Tohoku University

Figure 1 

image: 

(a) Epoxide selectivity as a function of ethylene conversion over unpromoted Ag-based catalysts, summarized from representative experimental studies. (b) Volcano activity model of ethylene partial oxidation as a function of O binding energy. (c) Current densities of TMOs measured at 0.6 V/RHE, categorized by host anion. (d) Comparison of CO FE for various DACs reported experimentally. (e) Experimental Faradaic efficiencies for C2+ products and (f) HER from CO2RR over Cu-based single-atom alloys (SAAs), summarized from the DigCat Platform.

view more 

Credit: Hao Li et al.





What if the knowledge that could fuel the next scientific breakthrough has simply been forgotten in an old graph or table? Valuable scientific insights may already exist across decades of published experiments, yet remain buried in old research papers, waiting to be rediscovered.

Researchers from the Advanced Institute for Materials Research (WPI-AIMR) at Tohoku University have investigated ways to transform old date into new discoveries. In a review published in the journal Chemical Communication, they showed how extracting knowledge from past experiments and scientific literature is fundamentally reshaping research in chemistry and materials science.

"Modern science produces an overwhelming amount of information, making it increasingly difficult for researchers to see the bigger picture hidden across thousands of studies," said Hao Li, Distinguished Professor at Tohoku University's Advanced Institute for Materials Research (WPI-AIMR)." Today, by combining AI and data science with existing literature, we can uncover patterns and connections that could help drive future discoveries."

The researchers highlight examples from catalysis, solid-state electrolytes, and hydrogen storage to demonstrate how hidden knowledge can be extracted from existing data.

Within catalysis research, data-driven approaches reveal new phenomena and limitations in existing theoretical models, greatly accelerating materials design and screening.

For solid-state electrolytes, AI-based methods help deepen the understanding of underlying physical mechanisms and support the discovery of new electrolyte materials for batteries.

Meanwhile, in hydrogen storage research, the review demonstrated a pathway from old data to structured knowledge and ultimately to autonomous materials design. In this field, data-driven approaches are reshaping the discovery and optimization of hydrogen-storage systems.

This study highlights the growing importance of database construction and AI agents in next-generation materials research. By connecting knowledge extracted from old data with theoretical simulations and experimental validation, the researchers envision a future in which materials discovery becomes faster, more connected, and increasingly driven by a digital materials ecosystem.

"Scientific discovery is no longer driven only by creating new data," added Hao Li. "Instead of relying on slow trial-and-error methods, the next breakthrough may come from seeing old knowledge in a completely new way with the help of AI."

With that said, the researchers believe that the future of materials discovery may depend not only on generating new data, but rather on uncovering hidden insights within decades of existing knowledge - showing that, in science, everything old can become new again.

Friday, May 22, 2026

Against the tribunal left: DSA, moralism and the problem of socialist discipline


DSA banner

Internal fights with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) over “cancel culture,” “political correctness” and “call-out culture” are not side dramas. They are symptoms of a deeper organisational sickness: the inability of a would-be mass socialist organisation to distinguish political discipline from moral punishment, comradely correction from public shaming, and class struggle from subcultural boundary maintenance.

Let us state the matter plainly. A socialist organisation must be absolutely serious about racism, sexism, transphobia, harassment, chauvinism and abuse. These are not “distractions” from class politics. They are among the ways capitalism divides the working class, cheapens labour power, polices bodies, disciplines social reproduction and fractures solidarity. Any “class politics” that treats oppression as a nuisance is not Marxism. It is economism with a lunch pail.

But the opposite error is just as destructive: a politics that turns every disagreement into an accusation, every clumsy formulation into a moral indictment, every political dispute into a question of personal purity, and every organisational problem into a demand for exclusion. That is not socialist accountability. It is liberal moral management wearing a red hoodie.

DSA’s own formal standards recognise the need for conduct rules. The national Code of Conduct prohibits harassment on the basis of sex, gender, gender identity or expression, sexual orientation, disability, race, religion, national origin, class, age and other protected categories. Its meeting code also asks members to refrain from demeaning or harassing speech, exercise consideration and “share analysis and opinions rather than accusations.” That last phrase is crucial. It points toward a socialist culture of debate, not a permanent tribunal.

The issue, then, is not whether DSA should have standards — of course it should. The question is the standards to be enforced, the politics involved and the organisation’s purpose.

DSA says in its Workers Deserve More programs that it wants to bring together millions of people across the United States to fight for a democracy where working people control their lives, government and economy. That is a mass-political ambition, not a boutique affinity group.

A mass organisation cannot operate like a graduate seminar, a nonprofit HR department or a social-media pile-on machine. It has to organise real workers as they exist: uneven, contradictory, wounded by capitalism, shaped by reactionary common sense, capable of transformation, and often more interested in rent, wages, health care, transit, war and the boss than in mastering the latest activist vocabulary.

A socialist organisation cannot require people to arrive already purified. If it does, it will not build a working-class movement. It will build a political boutique for people who already know the password.

The false choice between class or anti-oppression politics 

The worst version of this debate counterposes “class” to “identity.” This is lazy, and worse, politically disarming.

Marxism does not require indifference to oppression. Capitalism does not exploit an abstract worker floating above history. It exploits workers who are racialised, gendered, sexualised, disabled, criminalised, documented or undocumented, paid or unpaid, housed or unhoused. The working class is not a grey block of identical wage-earners. It is internally divided because capital actively organises those divisions.

So, the socialist answer cannot be: “Stop talking about oppression and go back to economics.” That is not class politics. That is class politics stripped of its actual class content.

Yet the moralistic answer is no better. The fact that oppression is real does not mean every conflict should be handled through denunciation. It does not mean accusation is analysis. It does not mean discomfort is violence. It does not mean disagreement is harm. It does not mean the loudest or most wounded person in the room automatically has the correct political line. Furthermore, it does not imply that bureaucratic punishment is the path to liberation.

The real divide is this: one’s politics try to integrate struggles against oppression into working-class organisations; the other substitutes moral adjudication for political struggle.

The first asks: How do we build solidarity across real differences? How do we politically educate one another? How do we transform people through struggle? How do we make the organisation safer without making it brittle, paranoid and afraid of debate?

The second asks: Who is harmful? Who is unsafe? Who must apologise? Who must be removed? Who has failed the vocabulary test? Who can be made an example?

The first builds a movement. The second builds a courtroom with worse rules of evidence.

Solidarity is not niceness

Twin Cities DSA’s “solidarity culture” statement is useful because it comes from the labour movement rather than from the moralistic etiquette wing of progressivism. 

It argues that in unions, solidarity means honouring picket lines, protecting coworkers from bosses, and having heated debates from the standpoint of a united front against the boss. It explicitly contrasts these principles with call-out dynamics that isolate people rather than build collective power.

That is the key insight: solidarity is not the absence of conflict; solidarity is conflict disciplined by a shared enemy and a shared project.

In a workplace, workers must assemble with people who do not agree with them on everything. The union must organise a diverse group of coworkers, including the MAGA supporter, the liberal, the apolitical individual, the one who makes inappropriate comments, the person who has never attended a political meeting, and the coworker who believes socialism means Joseph Stalin personally stealing their pickup truck.

This does not mean anything goes. A union cannot allow racist harassment, sexual abuse, homophobic intimidation or anti-trans cruelty to fester. That would destroy solidarity from within. But the labour movement, at its best, does not begin with purification. It begins with common struggle, collective discipline, democratic debate and transformation through action.

A socialist organisation must do the same. It must be able to say: “That behaviour is unacceptable.” But it must also be able to say: “This person can be corrected.” 

It must be able to say: “This political line is wrong.” But it must also be able to say: “Wrong is not the same as evil.” 

It must be able to say: “This conduct requires consequences.” But it must also be able to say: “Consequences are not revenge.”

Without those distinctions, accountability becomes arbitrary. And arbitrary accountability does not produce political clarity. It produces silence, resentment, factional manipulation and fear.

Professional class-style punishment

The problem is not merely that some people are “too sensitive.” That is a shallow diagnosis. 

The more profound issue is that DSA has absorbed much of the political culture of the contemporary professional-managerial progressive milieu: nonprofit procedure, academic jargon, HR-style harm language, social-media reputational punishment, and a tendency to convert political disagreement into ethical contamination.

This culture has a class basis. It is not simply a set of undesirable ideas floating in the air. It reflects the habits of people trained in institutions where power often works through credentials, language, reputation, access, compliance and informal social sanction. In these spaces, individuals accumulate status by demonstrating correct awareness and lose it by violating norms that are often unstable, unspoken and unevenly enforced.

Jo Freeman’s classic essay “ The Tyranny of Structurelessness” remains useful here. Freeman argued that supposedly structureless groups do not abolish power; they merely make power informal, opaque and less accountable. Informal cliques, hidden rules and invisible hierarchies replace democratic structures.

That applies directly to activist moralism. A group can claim to be horizontal, anti-authoritarian and decentralised, while still being governed by informal status hierarchies based on who knows the language, who has the right friends, who can mobilise outrage, who can frame the accusation, and who can define the room’s emotional reality. The result is not democracy. It is rule by those most fluent in the culture of accusation.

This is why “call-out culture” is not actually anti-bureaucratic. It frequently lays the foundation for bureaucracy. First comes the informal pile-on. Then comes the demand that the leadership “do something.” Then comes the disciplinary procedure under pressure. Then comes precedent. Then comes fear. Then comes silence. Congratulations — the revolution now has a complaints department.

The Bowman lesson: Accountability or expulsion reflex?

The Jamaal Bowman controversy revealed this contradiction in public form. 

Bowman’s 2021 Israel trip, sponsored by J Street, and his vote for Iron Dome funding produced a serious conflict inside DSA. DSA’s BDS and Palestine Solidarity Working Group, along with several chapters, demanded expulsion unless Bowman explicitly supported BDS. The National Political Committee ultimately declined to expel him but stated that he would not be re-endorsed unless he demonstrated solidarity with Palestine in alignment with DSA expectations.

This was not a trivial matter. Palestine is not a decorative issue. US imperialism, Israeli apartheid, military funding and socialist internationalism are core political questions. A socialist organisation has every right to hold its endorsed candidates accountable. Indeed, it must. Otherwise, endorsements become branding exercises for ambitious politicians who borrow the rose and forget the class struggle.

But the Bowman fight also exposed DSA’s underdeveloped theory of discipline. What does accountability mean for elected officials? What commitments are binding? Who decides? What is the sequence of correction, public pressure, censure, non-endorsement and expulsion? Is expulsion a first resort, a last resort, or a factional weapon? How does the organisation distinguish betrayal from contradiction, tactical disagreement, cowardice, district pressure and outright political rupture?

A serious socialist organisation needs answers to those questions before the crisis hits. Otherwise, every controversy becomes a referendum on everyone’s moral seriousness. One side accuses the other of betrayal; the other accuses the first of purity politics; the media publishes a story about socialist chaos; members learn that politics is mostly procedural combat; and the working class, once again, is invited to watch the left eat itself with utensils made of recycled bylaws.

The problem is not that Bowman should have been above discipline — no elected official should be. The problem is that the DSA often oscillates between two failures: loose electoral opportunism and punitive overcorrection. It adapts too much, then panics too late. It tolerates ambiguity until members explode, then tries to resolve political weakness through moral emergency.

That is not strategy. That is indigestion.

Censorship, memory and the fear of debate

The same contradiction appears in debates over publications and speech.

In 2018, Democratic Left published an editorial on article removal and censorship after coordinated calls to remove pieces or authors from the publication’s archives. The editorial resisted the idea that already-published pieces should be removed simply because of retrospective ideological disagreement, while recognising that socialist publications need ethical and political standards.

This is precisely the kind of distinction DSA needs more of. There is a difference between refusing to publish reactionary garbage and pretending that disagreement can be solved by making old arguments disappear.

A socialist organisation needs archives, memory, debate, correction, polemic and public development. It should not be terrified of its own past. Every living political tradition contains errors, fights, reversals, unsatisfactory formulations and unfinished arguments.

The bourgeoisie has its reason for erasing history: it wants to hide exploitation. The left should not imitate that impulse in miniature by hiding disagreement. We should argue. We should annotate. We should rebut. We should say: “This was wrong, and here is why.” But removal is not clarification. It is often just avoidance dressed up as justice.

A movement that cannot survive the existence of an old bad article is unprepared to survive the state.

Moralism is not materialism

Marxism begins with social relations, not moral essence. It asks what structures produce behaviour, what interests are at stake, what forms of power are operating, and what kind of collective action can transform the situation. Moralism begins with guilt, contamination, accusations and purification.

This does not mean Marxists have no morality — obviously we do. Exploitation is monstrous. Imperialism is monstrous. Racism and misogyny are monstrous. Capitalism is essentially organised barbarism operating through a payroll system. But Marxism does not stop at moral condemnation. It moves from condemnation to analysis, from analysis to organisation, and from organisation to power.

The tribunal rarely gets that far. It often mistakes accusations for politics. But accusing is easy. Organisation is hard. Denunciation is easy. Recruitment is hard. Expulsion is easy. Transformation is hard. Calling someone out is easy. Building a durable working-class majority in the most powerful capitalist country on Earth is, regrettably, a bit more demanding than writing “do better” in the tone of an assistant dean.

The Communist Manifesto argues that communists do not form a separate party opposed to other working-class parties, and that they have no interests separate from the proletariat as a whole. It also insists that the proletariat must constitute itself as a class and fight politically. That is the standard: not subcultural distinction, but class formation.

A socialist organisation should ask of every internal norm the following: does this help constitute the working class as a political force? Or does it merely distinguish the enlightened from the suspect?

If a norm helps workers fight bosses, landlords, police violence, imperialism, racism, sexism and ecological destruction, good. Keep it. Strengthen it. Teach it. Institutionalise it democratically.

If a norm mostly helps insiders police outsiders, veterans humiliate newcomers, factions weaponise grievances, and educated activists display refinement over ordinary members, throw it into the nearest procedural compost bin.

The subculture trap

The danger for DSA is not that it has too many standards. The danger is that it has too many informal, unstable, moralised standards and not enough democratic, political, transparent ones.

A mass socialist organisation should be demanding. It should expect discipline, seriousness, study, accountability, anti-racism, anti-sexism, internationalism and commitment. But demanding is not the same as precious. 

A revolutionary organisation cannot be built around the emotional reflexes of the most conflict-averse people in the room. Nor can it be built around the punitive reflexes of those who experience every disagreement as an opportunity to prosecute.

The working class is not recruited by lowering politics to the lowest common denominator. That is not the argument. The working class is recruited by connecting socialist politics to lived antagonisms: wages, rent, debt, schools, healthcare, war, climate, policing, reproduction, time, dignity and power. 

People can grow politically when they enter a serious organisation that treats them as capable of growth. They do not grow when they are treated as walking liabilities.

A socialist organisation must be a school of class struggle. Schools are correct. They do not merely expel. They set standards. They also teach. They distinguish ignorance from malice, confusion from sabotage, and contradiction from betrayal. A school that expels every student who enters without already knowing the curriculum is not an educational institution. It is a club.

What socialist accountability should look like

The answer is not “anything goes.” Such an approach would be idiotic and, even worse, it would leave vulnerable members at the mercy of those who can dominate the room. Socialist democracy requires conduct rules.

But those rules must be clear, political, proportional and democratically controlled.

First, DSA should distinguish sharply between political disagreement, bad formulation, oppressive conduct, harassment and abuse. These are not the same. Treating them as identical destroys trust.

Second, discipline should be proportional. Correction, mediation, education, warning, temporary suspension, removal from leadership, non-endorsement and expulsion are different tools. A serious organisation does not use a hammer for every repair unless it wants the house to look like it lost a fight with a toddler.

Third, accusations should not substitute for evidence. A socialist organisation cannot reproduce carceral logic in red packaging, but neither can it abandon due process. Due process is not liberal weakness. It is protection against arbitrary power.

Fourth, political education must be central. If members keep violating norms because they do not understand the politics behind them, the answer is not endless punishment. The answer is systematic education, mentorship and collective discussion.

Fifth, elected officials need explicit discipline mechanisms before crises emerge. Endorsement agreements, reporting requirements, public accountability processes and defined consequences should be clear in advance. No more improvising socialist discipline in the middle of a media firestorm.

Sixth, DSA must rebuild the art of the polemic. A polemic is not a denunciation. It is a political weapon aimed at clarification. A good polemic names the line, explains the stakes, defeats the argument and leaves the person room either to change or to reveal their unwillingness to change. A bad polemic just throws someone into the volcano and calls the smoke “accountability.”

Conclusion: No more tribunal socialism

DSA faces a strategic choice. It can become a mass socialist organisation rooted in workplaces, tenants’ struggles, anti-imperialist politics, electoral fights and democratic class formation. Or it can become a self-policing progressive subculture whose main product is internal discipline and whose main emotional register is suspicion.

The first path requires standards. The second path also has standards. The difference is that the first uses standards to build solidarity, while the second uses standards to ration belonging.

A socialist organisation must not tolerate bigotry, harassment, abuse or chauvinism. But it also must not confuse socialist politics with moral purification. It must not turn every contradiction among the people into an enemy proceeding. It must not import the punitive habits of the nonprofit office, the university seminar, the HR department and the social media pile-on, and then call the result liberation.

The working class does not need a tribunal. It needs an organisation.

It needs a place where people can fight, learn, argue, change and act together. It needs discipline without bureaucratic moralism. It needs accountability without ritual humiliation. It needs anti-oppression politics rooted in class struggle, not class politics amputated from oppression or oppression politics amputated from class.

The question is not whether DSA should be “nice.” Niceness is cheap. The question is whether DSA can become serious. And a serious socialist organisation does not ask, “Who can we punish to prove we are righteous?” It asks: “What must we build to win?”

Anthony Teso is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, Tempest Collective and Solidarity in the United States.

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

 

Ice core discovery finds volcanic eruptions could cause greater global disruption than previously thought




University of St. Andrews
Ice core 

image: 

Ice cores were sampled during international drilling campaigns in Greenland 

view more 

Credit: Michael Sigl





New research from the University of St Andrews has precisely dated an eruption from Newberry Volcano and discovered that its ash spread more than 5000 km across the globe, far further than previously thought for an eruption of its size.

Published today (21st May) in Quaternary Science Reviews, researchers identified ash particles from the Newberry Pumice eruption of Newberry Volcano (Oregon, USA) in a Greenland ice core by geochemical fingerprinting – matching the chemical elements in the far-flung ash particles to volcanic deposits of the Newberry Pumice ash from its most recent “Big Obsidian” eruptive period.

Previous dates had narrowed the timing of the eruption to an approximate 140-year window around the turn of the 7th Century AD. Finding the ash in the ice allowed researchers to pinpoint the timing of the Newberry Pumice eruption to within two years of 686AD, due to the very precise age models that have been developed for Greenland ice cores.

Lead author Dr Helen Innes from the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of St Andrews, said: “When we find tiny (0.02 mm) ash fragments in the ice core, it can be really challenging to trace them to their precise volcanic source. So it was a really exciting moment when we compared the geochemical fingerprint to Newberry and it was an exact match. Discoveries like this can unlock so much critical information about past eruptions, their precise timings and importantly, their hazards on a very large scale. Finding such an abundance of ash particles from Newberry thousands of kilometres from the eruption site is key for improving our understanding of how far Cascades volcanoes can send very fine ash particles and what risks they pose in the future to the North Atlantic region.”

The Newberry eruption is categorised as a VEI 4 event (Volcanic Explosivity Index), which is  around 10 times smaller than the Mount St Helens eruption in 1980 which ranks as VEI 5 (very large), and  about 10 times bigger than the VEI 3-4 (moderate-large) Eyjafjallajökull Icelandic eruption in 2010 which caused mass disruption in  European airspace with far travelled ash

Globally, eruptions the size of this one from Newberry typically happen a few times a decade.

However, researchers found that what was exceptional about this eruption was that its ash was transported across the United States and the Atlantic, over 5000 km from its source

This shows that even relatively minor eruptions can potentially pose hazards across the North Atlantic.  Improving understanding of the risks these relatively frequent eruptions can pose far from the volcano is essential for disaster response management. 

Co-author Dr William Hutchison from the University of St Andrews, said; “Iceland usually grabs the headlines as our restless volcanic neighbour, but this study is an important reminder that there are huge numbers of volcanoes across North America, Russia and Japan that can spread vast quantities of ash across the Northern hemisphere

The North Atlantic is one of the busiest flight routes on Earth, and the discovery of such large quantities of ash in Greenland is a striking example of the global reach of even relatively minor eruptions. It shows that size isn’t everything when it comes to volcanic eruptions; a small but very ash rich eruption in a busy place could cause huge amounts of upheaval. Its really difficult to forecast when and where the next globally disruptive eruption is going to take place but vital that governments and international agencies are ready to respond in a co-ordinated way when they do.”

The Newberry volcano sits in the Cascade Volcanic Range in the US, the same range as Mount St Helens. It’s still an active volcano and is classed as “very high threat potential” by the U.S Geological Survey National Volcano Early Warning System. The 686 AD eruption researchers identified in the ice cores is the most recent eruption from it.

Scientists who have previously studied this Newberry Pumice eruption see that the ash close to the volcano itself is deposited in a very narrow, elongated way, which they’ve used to suggest there were strong winds at the time of eruption. Researchers suggest that this likely helped transport so much very fine ash across North America and to Greenland.

Professor Andrea Burke from the University of St Andrews who led the ice core analysis, said: "This discovery was really surprising for us. We never would have expected to find so much ash that far away from a moderate sized eruption. This result really highlights the value of investigating past eruptions to understand risks."

ENDS

  

Cores were collected from the Greenland ice sheet 

Credit

Michael Sigl

Aerosol fallout preserved in ice core 

Ice cores preserve detailed records of the ash and aerosol fallout from past volcanic eruptions 

Credit

Joe McConnell

Tuesday, May 12, 2026

Support local people to protect world’s nature, new report urges, as deadline for global conservation target looms






University of Cambridge

Small-scale agriculture within the crater of Pululahua volcano in the Pululahua geobotanical reserve, Ecuador 

image: 

In a conservation approach designed to protect as many different species and ecosystems as possible, the study found that 46% of all people worldwide would live inside or within 10 kilometres of a conservation area. This patchwork of small farms inside the Pululahua volcanic crater, Ecuador, is within a protected landscape shaped by local livelihoods.

view more 

Credit: Javier Fajardo




For better or worse, a huge number of people will be affected by efforts to achieve ‘30x30’ - the internationally-agreed conservation goal to protect and conserve at least 30% of the world’s land and seas by 2030. How many people, and who they are, will depend on which aspects of nature are prioritised for protection - but in all scenarios this human context must be a key consideration if plans are to succeed for both people and nature.

That’s the message of a new report published today in the journal Nature Communications, led by researchers at the University of Cambridge Conservation Research Institute and involving a diverse international team of researchers and practitioners.

The team considered three approaches to conservation that would enable the world to reach 30x30, with the aim of reversing the decline of nature and boosting our resilience to climate change.

In an approach designed to protect as many different species and ecosystems as possible, they found that 46% of all people worldwide would live inside or within 10 kilometres of a conservation area.

Other approaches would affect fewer people overall, but a higher proportion would be socially vulnerable, showing that implementation choices profoundly shape both the number and social profile of people affected.

Living in or close to conservation areas can have positive, negative or neutral implications for livelihoods and wellbeing. Potential benefits include securing a sustainable supply of clean water or access to cultural sites, whereas costs can include people being prevented from living in an area or using it to collect resources.

The final impacts of new conservation areas will depend on how they are designed and managed. For example, there is a major difference between a strict national park and an Indigenous protected area. Whichever approach is taken, making sure that local people do not lose out will require substantial investment, and processes to give local people a voice in decision-making, says the team.

“If you look at where new conservation sites might be located, these are not empty landscapes - often a lot of people live there, especially in countries like the UK. Planning land-use change to achieve national and global conservation targets must consider the impacts on local people,” said Professor Chris Sandbrook, Director of the University of Cambridge Conservation Research Institute and senior author of the report.

He added: “As an example, recent debates about whether to establish a new National Park in Wales highlight the balance that needs to be struck. While supporters say it could reduce flooding, lock up carbon and improve access to nature, critics fear tourism will overload local infrastructure, loss of farmland, and potential impacts on future housing availability.”

Protected natural spaces, when properly implemented, can benefit local people. For example, forests can prevent flooding, wildflowers can support insects that pollinate crops, wild harvesting can sustain local livelihoods, and access to natural spaces is important for human wellbeing.

“In addition to local benefits, protected natural areas can take carbon out of the atmosphere and help mitigate climate change, which at a grand scale is hugely important for us all. In many cases, however, it’s the people who live closest to conservation areas who tend to experience the downsides,” said Dr Javier Fajardo, a researcher in the University of Cambridge Conservation Research Institute and first author of the report.

He added: “If the global conservation target is achieved in the right way it could be really beneficial for people as well as nature. It’s an ambitious target, and to get there we need an equally ambitious commitment to supporting local people who are central to achieving it.”

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework sets out an ambitious pathway to achieving the vision of a world living in harmony with nature by 2050. The 30x30 goal is part of this Framework. 196 countries, including the UK, made formal commitments to reach this target during the UN Biodiversity Conference (COP15) in 2022.

With only four years left to go and less than 20% of global land and sea protected, the team expects efforts to achieve the 30x30 target will now ramp up significantly. There are ongoing debates about which areas of land and sea should be conserved, and how to ensure successful implementation across the world.

Alternative approaches

The team also considered two other theoretical approaches to achieving 30x30, to explore how different priorities might shape social outcomes. The second focuses on protecting large areas of habitat - mainly in the Amazon and the Congo - that provide natural ‘services’ for people around the world, like nutrient cycling and carbon capture. The third prioritises areas with important conservation value that are governed and managed by Indigenous Peoples and local communities.

While these alternative approaches would affect significantly fewer people than one focused on protecting the most species, a higher proportion of the people impacted would be very poor, and vulnerable in various ways.

The team says there is no ‘socially optimal’ approach to conserving nature - the impact on people will vary wildly depending on the priorities by which land is chosen for protection and how the selected sites are governed and managed.


Wind pump at How Hill National Nature Reserve, UK. Water levels are carefully managed to strike a balance between nature and food production in the area.

Credit

C. Sandbrook

Small-scale fishing activity on the rocky coast of Tayrona National Natural Park, Colombia brings income to locals living within a protected coastal landscape.

Credit

Javier Fajardo

Credit

Children in a small canoe on Limoncocha lagoon, Limoncocha Biological Reserve, Ecuador, where daily life is closely tied to protected wetland ecosystems.