Unravelling active magma by drilling in the heart of volcanoes

Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München

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LMU volcanologists decipher the behavior of magma beneath an active volcano and reveal how it reacts to drilling.

Although volcanic eruptions are spectacular natural events that occur around the world every day, most volcanoes spend the majority of their time not erupting. To accurately forecast volcanic activity, it’s important to characterise the magma before an eruption is imminent. A team lead by LMU volcanologist Dr. Janine Birnbaum has managed to directly reconstruct the prevailing conditions in a magma chamber for the first time and reveal how magma reacts to drilling. The results, which were published in the journal Nature, provide important insights that could improve the monitoring of magma and pave the way for new applications.

Magma slowly moves from deep within the Earth toward the surface. It often temporarily stops in the crust, where it may reside for years, decades, or even millennia. In that time, it cools, crystallizes, ingests the surrounding crustal rocks, and loses or gains dissolved gases – primarily water and carbon dioxide – that power volcanic eruptions. An eruption occurs when the magma system is perturbed through the addition of heat, new magma from depth, or the formation of bubbles – like an overheated can of soda that expands and eventually bursts.

Drilling in Krafla volcanic field in Iceland

To understand how volcanoes behave between and before eruptions, it is important to have detailed information about the temperature, pressure, and gas content of the magma in the Earth’s crust. However, magma often resides deep below the Earth’s surface and is not accessible to direct measurements.

For their new study, the researchers exploited the fact that magma beneath the Krafla volcanic field in the northeast of Iceland comes surprisingly close to the surface. During operations at the Krafla Geothermal Station in 2009, the Iceland Deep Drilling Project 1 (IDDP-1) well unexpectedly intersected a magma body at a depth of just over 2 km. Cold drilling fluids dumped water on the magma, quenching it into tiny chips of glass.

When researchers looked at these chips, they encountered a puzzle: Although the quenched magma had many small bubbles, it held less dissolved gas than the magma was capable of holding at the expected temperature and pressure. To solve this question, the LMU researchers used a new numerical model which showed that the magma reacted to the drilling and lost gas before it fully solidified into glass. Previous measurements had shown that the magma requires several minutes to cool from an initial temperature of about 900 °C to become a glass at around 520 °C. According to the researchers’ hypothesis, this gives the gas enough time to escape from the melt and to cause the observed bubbles to form.

Gas escapes within five minutes

As such, the gas content in the chips of glass does not reflect the original conditions, but is the product of this dynamic process. “It’s like a blurry photo,” explains Birnbaum. “But if we know our exposure time and how fast our system moves, we can unravel where it started.” By simulating how fast the gas escapes, the researchers were able to reconstruct the original gas content. This revealed that the ‘missing’ gas was lost in under five minutes during drilling.

According to the researchers, these findings can help make future endeavors in geothermal fields on active volcanoes safer, while also paving the way for targeted drilling into magma for purposes such as monitoring and green energy extraction.

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Journal

Nature

DOI

10.1038/s41586-026-10317-w 

Article Title

Disequilibrium response to tapping crustal magma reveals storage conditions

Article Publication Date

25-Mar-2026

How do giant caldera volcanoes fill up?

Kobe University

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We know very little about the processes that lead to a reeruption of supervolcanoes such as the mostly underwater Kikai caldera in Japan (pictured) and are therefore ill-equipped to make predictions.

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Credit: SEAMA Nobukazu

The magma reservoir of the largest volcano eruption of the Holocene is refilling. This Kobe University insight on the Kikai caldera in Japan allows us to understand giant caldera volcanoes like Yellowstone or Toba more generally and gets us closer to predicting their behavior, too.

Some volcanoes erupt so violently, ejecting more magma than could cover all of Central Park 12 km deep, that all that’s left is just a wide and rather shallow crater, a so-called “caldera.” Examples of such supervolcanoes are the Yellowstone caldera, the Toba caldera and the mostly underwater Kikai caldera in Japan, which last erupted 7,300 years ago in what was the largest volcano eruption in the current geological epoch, the Holocene. We know that these volcanoes can and do reerupt but we know very little about the processes that lead up to an eruption and are therefore ill-equipped to make predictions. “We must understand how such large quantities of magma can accumulate to understand how giant caldera eruptions occur,” says Kobe University geophysicist SEAMA Nobukazu.

That the Kikai caldera is mostly underwater is, in fact, an advantage to tackle questions like this. Seama explains, “The underwater location allows us to implement systematic, large-scale surveys.” Thus, the Kobe University researcher teamed up with the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) and used airgun arrays that cause artificial seismic pulses together with ocean bottom seismometers that listen to how that seismic wave propagates through the Earth’s crust to understand its condition.

In the journal Communications Earth & Environment, the team now publishes its findings. They found that there is indeed a region that consists to a large degree of magma directly underneath the volcano that erupted 7,300 years ago and characterized the reservoir’s size and shape. Seama says, “Due to its extent and location it is clear that this is in fact the same magma reservoir as in the previous eruption.”

But this magma is likely not a remnant of that eruption. Researchers had become aware that in the center of the caldera a new lava dome has been forming over the past 3,900 years, and chemical analyses showed that the material produced by this and other recent volcanic activity is of a different composition than what was ejected in the last giant eruption. “This means that the magma that is now present in the magma reservoir under the lava dome is likely newly injected magma,” summarizes Seama. This allows the researchers to propose a general model for how magma reservoirs under caldera volcanoes refill.

“This magma re-injection model is consistent with the existence of large shallow magma reservoirs beneath other giant calderas like Yellowstone and Toba,” says Seama, hoping that his team’s findings may contribute to understanding the magma supply cycles following giant eruptions. He concludes, saying: “We want to refine the methods that have proved to be so useful in this study to more deeply understand the re-injection processes. Our ultimate goal is to become better able to monitor the crucial indicators of future giant eruptions.”

This research was funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) (The Third Earthquake and Volcano Hazards Observation and Research Program (Earthquake and Volcano Hazard Reduction Research)) and the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (grant 20H00199). It was conducted in collaboration with researchers from the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC).

Kobe University geophysicist SEAMA Nobukazu and his team found that there is a region that consists to a large degree of magma directly underneath the volcano that erupted 7,300 years ago and characterized the magma reservoir’s size and shape. He says, “Due to its extent and location it is clear that this is in fact the same magma reservoir as in the previous eruption.”

Credit

© A. Nagaya et al. (2026), Communications Earth & Environment (DOI 10.1038/s43247-026-03347-9)

 

The current survey allows the researchers to propose a general model for how magma reservoirs under caldera volcanoes refill. “This magma re-injection model is consistent with the existence of large shallow magma reservoirs beneath other giant calderas like Yellowstone and Toba,” says Kobe University geophysicist SEAMA Nobukazu.

Credit

A. Nagaya et al. (2026), Communications Earth & Environment (DOI 10.1038/s43247-026-03347-9)

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Journal

Communications Earth & Environment

DOI

10.1038/s43247-026-03347-9 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Melt re-injection into large magma reservoir after giant caldera eruption at Kikai Caldera Volcano

Article Publication Date

27-Mar-2026

Lava flows reach Indian Ocean on France's Réunion Island

Issued on: 16/03/2026 - FRANCE24


One month after the Piton de la Fournaise volcano began erupting on Réunion Island, lava continues to flow and has reached the ocean for the first time in 19 years. Two lava flows have also cut the national road linking the southern and eastern parts of the French island in the Indian Ocean.

 

New study reveals how volcanic eruptions and internal climate cycles jointly shape Asian monsoon rainfall

Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

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Major volcanic eruptions inject aerosols into the stratosphere, triggering sea surface temperature changes that can mimic natural climate cycles and reshape monsoon rainfall patterns across Asia.

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Credit: Wenmin Man

From the rice paddies of South Asia to the wheat fields of northern China, summer monsoon rains sustain the livelihoods of billions. Yet these vital rains fluctuate dramatically from decade to decade—a variability that has long puzzled climate scientists.

Now, a study led by Dr. Wenmin Man at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, offers new insight into what drives these swings. The research reveals that volcanic eruptions can trigger rainfall patterns remarkably similar to those produced by natural climate variability—effectively "projecting" their influence onto the ocean-driven cycles that scientists have long studied.

Published in Geophysical Research Letters, the findings help untangle a longstanding question: when Asian monsoon rainfall shifts from one decade to the next, are those changes driven by forces outside the climate system—like volcanic aerosols—or by natural oscillations within it?

The answer, it turns out, is both—and the interplay is more complex than previously understood.

Using paleoclimate reconstructions and model simulations covering the past millennium, the research team identified a distinct "tripolar" pattern of summer rainfall variability across Asia. In this pattern, when South Asia gets wetter, Southeast Asia tends to get drier, while northern East Asia's rainfall aligns with South Asia's.

This large-scale pattern, the study confirms, is primarily driven by a natural climate phenomenon known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)—a long-lived cousin of El Niño that shuffles heat and moisture across the Pacific Ocean, with ripple effects reaching far into Asia.

But the story doesn't end there. When the team analyzed periods following major volcanic eruptions, they found strikingly similar rainfall patterns emerging. Volcanic aerosols injected into the stratosphere can trigger sea surface temperature changes that resemble an IPO-like pattern, effectively tricking the climate system into producing the same tripolar rainfall response.

"Volcanic forcing can 'project' onto the internal variability mode that naturally drives these precipitation patterns," explains Dr. Man. "This means that even when the IPO itself isn't active, large eruptions can create conditions that mimic its influence on Asian rainfall."

Despite these similarities, the researchers found that volcanic-driven and IPO-driven patterns remain distinguishable—with important implications for both past climate understanding and future planning.

The key difference lies in symmetry. IPO-related temperature anomalies tend to be roughly symmetric around the equator. Volcanic forcing, by contrast, produces a distinctly asymmetric pattern, with cooling more pronounced in one hemisphere depending on the eruption's location and timing.

These subtle but systematic differences provide scientists with a way to tease apart how much of any given decadal shift in Asian rainfall comes from internal variability versus external forcing.

The findings carry particular relevance as scientists explore "climate intervention" strategies—deliberate attempts to cool the planet by injecting aerosols into the stratosphere, mimicking the effects of volcanic eruptions.

"If we're considering stratospheric aerosol injection as a potential tool, we need to understand exactly how such interventions might affect regional rainfall patterns," says Dr. Man. "Our research suggests they wouldn't simply counteract warming uniformly—they'd interact with the climate system in complex ways, potentially amplifying or modifying the natural variability that billions of people depend on for their water supply."

The study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42588201).

 

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Journal

Geophysical Research Letters

DOI

10.1029/2025GL118463 

 

‘Everyone should buckle up’: Scientists change El Nino labelling to keep up with temperature spike

Copyright AP Photo/Channi Anand, File

By Seth Borenstein with AP

Published on 23/02/2026 - EURONEWS

Scientists have had to update how they label El Nino and La Nina because of rapid weather changes caused by global warming.

The natural El Nino cycle, which warps weather worldwide, is both adding to and shaped by a warming world, meteorologists say.

A new study calculates that an unusual recent twist in the warming and cooling cycle that includes El Nino and its counterpart La Nina can help explain the scientific mystery of why Earth's already rising temperature spiked to a new level over the past three years.

Separately, scientists have had to update how they label El Nino and La Nina because of rapid weather changes caused by global warming. Increasingly hot waters globally have caused the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration this month to alter how it calculates when the weather pattern has flipped into a new cycle. It's likely to mean that more events will be considered La Nina and fewer qualify as an El Nino for warming tropical waters.

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Earth's average monthly temperature took a noticeable jump up from the long-term upward trend connected to human-caused climate change in early 2023, and that increase continued through 2025. Scientists have many theories about what's happening, including an acceleration of greenhouse gas warming, a reduction in particle pollution from ships, an underwater volcano eruption and increased solar output.

In a new study in Nature Geoscience this month, Japanese researchers look at how the difference in energy coming to and leaving the planet – called Earth's energy imbalance – increased in 2022. An increased imbalance, or more trapped heat, then leads to warmer temperatures, scientists say. The researchers calculate that about three-quarters of the change in Earth's energy imbalance can be attributed to the combination of long-term human-caused climate change and a shift from a three-year cooling La Nina cycle to a warm El Nino one.

A man carries usable belongings salvaged from his flood-hit home across a flooded area in Shikarpur district of Sindh province, of Pakistan, Wednesday, Aug. 31, 2022. AP Photo/Fareed Khan, File

What's El Nino vs La Nina

El Nino is a cyclical and natural warming of patches of the equatorial Pacific that then alters the world's weather patterns, while La Nina is marked by cooler than average waters.

Both shift precipitation and temperature patterns, but in different ways. El Ninos tend to increase global temperatures and La Ninas depress the long-term rise.

La Ninas tend to cause more damage in the United States because of increased hurricane activity and drought, studies have shown.

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Why weather cycles switch from warm to cool

From 2020 to 2023, Earth had an unusual 'triple dip' La Nina without an El Nino in between. In a La Nina, warm water sticks to a deeper depth, resulting in a cooler surface. And that reduces how much energy goes out into space, says study co-author Yu Kosaka, a climate scientist at the University of Tokyo.

She compares it to what happens when people have fevers.

“If our body's temperature is high then it tends to emit its energy out, and the Earth has the same situation happening. And as the temperatures increase, it acts to emit more energy outward. And for three-year La Nina, it’s opposite,” Kosaka says.

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So more energy – which becomes heat – is trapped on Earth, she says. La Ninas more typically correspond to a one- or two-year buildup of extra energy imbalance, but this time it was longer so the difference was more noticeable and included hotter temperatures, Kosaka says.

“When there is a transition from La Nina to El Nino, it's like the lid is popped off,” releasing the heat, explains former NOAA meteorologist Tom Di Liberto, who's now with Climate Central.

About 23 per cent of the energy imbalance driving the recent higher temperatures comes from this unusually long La Nina pattern, with slightly more than half coming from gases from the burning of coal, oil and gas, the study authors say. The rest can be other factors.

Scientist Jennifer Francis of the Woodwell Climate Research Center, which wasn't involved in the study, says the research makes sense and explains an increase in energy imbalance that some scientists were attributing to accelerated warming.

Changing how El Ninos and La Ninas are labelled

For 75 years when meteorologists calculated El Ninos and La Ninas, it was based on the difference in temperature in three tropical Pacific regions compared to normal. An El Nino was 0.5 degrees Celsius warmer than normal and La Nina was cooler than normal by the same amount.

The trouble in a warming world is what's considered normal keeps shifting.

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Until now, NOAA used the 30-year average as normal. It updated the 30-year average every decade, which is how often it updates most climate and weather measurements. Then the water warmed so much for El Ninos and La Ninas that NOAA updated its definition of normal every five years, but that wasn't enough either, says Nat Johnson, a meteorologist at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab.

So NOAA came up with an El Nino index that's relative, starting this month. This new index compares temperatures to the rest of Earth's tropics. Recently that difference between the old and new methods has been as much as half a degree Celsius, and “that's enough to have an impact,” Johnson says.

That's because what really matters with El Ninos and La Ninas is the way the waters interact with the atmosphere. And recently the interactions didn't match the old labelling, but they do match the new method, Johnson says.

This will likely mean a few more La Ninas and fewer El Ninos than in the old system, Johnson says.

Here comes another El Nino

NOAA's forecast is for an El Nino to develop later this year in the late summer or autumn. If it comes early enough, it could dampen Atlantic hurricane activity. But it would also mean warmer global temperatures in 2027.

“When El Nino develops, we’re likely to set a new global temperature record,” Woodwell's Francis says in an email. “'Normal' was left in the dust decades ago. And with this much heat in the system, everyone should buckle up for the extreme weather it will fuel.”