Monday, April 13, 2020

Coronavirus: The US clothing firms now making gowns and gloves

BBC April 12, 2020


The US, like other countries, is grappling with shortages of medical supplies, but shies away from central directives

In a normal year Michael Rubin's athletic apparel factory in Pennsylvania would be ramping up for the start of baseball season, churning out team uniforms and clothing to sell to fans. Instead his company, Fanatics, has remade itself into a gown and mask manufacturer for hospitals facing shortages of protective gear as they fight the coronavirus.

Fanatics isn't alone. Thousands of companies across the US have responded to pleas for help from hospitals facing shortages of critical health supplies.

Clothing companies like Gap and Hanes are making gowns and scrubs. Ford and General Motors are repurposing fans and batteries, typically used in cars, to make ventilators. Boeing and Apple are making face shields. Luxury brands, distilleries - even state prisoners - are producing hand sanitiser.

"We felt it was our responsibility to help pitch in," says Mr Rubin. Firms responding in what he calls this "dire time of need" aren't necessarily going to profit from the enterprise but they are proving a point: The private sector is famously good at responding nimbly and quickly to changing demands.

Fanatics used baseball uniform material to make non-surgical masks
'Supply chain 101'

The shortages in the US are are not unique, nor is the response from the private sector.

In the UK, engineering firm Dyson has designed a new ventilator; in France, Chanel is contributing masks; in Germany, Volkswagen and other firms are manufacturing protective equipment.

But the White House has been notably hands-off when it comes to establishing any co-ordinated, centralised response, says Nada Sanders, professor of supply chain management at Northeastern University. This has led to a free-for-all, as local governments and hospitals competed to buy products or find donations, scam artists emerged, and prices skyrocketed.

The US has allowed "pure capitalism to serve as an incentive" says Dr Sanders.

"Companies want to step up to the plate and so many are. I really applaud them, but I also find it even more frustrating because I see the chaos."


What are ventilators and why are they important?
Coronavirus: New York warns of major medical shortages
Coronavirus: Can we 3D-print our way out of the PPE shortage?

In the European Union, the shortages were caused by inadequate reserves of equipment, as coronavirus cases surged and shipments from overseas were delayed. But in the US, which has a national stockpile of supplies, including badly-needed ventilators, a slow federal response has added to the problem, says Prashant Yadav, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development and a professor at INSEAD.

"Outcomes are pretty bad in both [Europe and America], but in one place they don't have large resources in a stockpile. They didn't have a large manufacturing base," he says. "Our decision-making wasn't working right or our coordinating mechanisms weren't working right."

Converting factories to make basic products like sanitiser or masks isn't necessarily that difficult or expensive. Mr Rubin's factory shipped its first masks within three days and now produces about 10,000 daily.

But getting companies to start making machines like ventilators - which have dozens of parts sourced globally - is far more complex and requires government intervention, says Dr Sanders.

While some states, including California, have voluntarily sent existing ventilators to virus hotspots like New York, Dr Sanders says a national response is needed, to ensure there is a clear inventory of what's on hand and the ability to shift resources to the places that need it most.

"This is supply chain 101 ... it's not like it's really that hard," she says. "The lack of coordinated national response is really infuriating."
'A national system'

Under pressure to act, President Donald Trump has targeted some companies with orders to produce items in high demand and banned exports of medical supplies. Federal health officials also announced a $50m deal with General Motors to produce 30,000 ventilators.

But for weeks Mr Trump resisted using the full extent of his authority to compel firms to produce equipment and prioritise deliveries.

"We're a country not based on nationalising our business," he said last month. "Call a person over in Venezuela. Ask them, how did nationalisation of their businesses work out? Not too well. The concept of nationalising our business is not a good concept."

New York Senator Chuck Schumer, a leading Democrat, last week called on the president to appoint a national 'czar' to oversee distribution and production. "The hunting and pecking isn't working," he told reporters.

It is not clear that the president will change tack.

Luckily in some places the private sector efforts are coming through. St Luke's University Health Network, which worked with Fanatics to design its masks, now has about 30 days worth of protective gear on hand, says vice president Chad Brisendine. Contributions from non-traditional suppliers account for "a quarter or more" of that.

"Between the external, local, non-traditional suppliers, plus the donations, that really helped us," Mr Brisendine says.

But the Pennsylvania hospital system has still been forced to introduce new cleaning procedures so it can reuse masks and other equipment more intensively, he adds.

Mr Brisendine says he's worried the wider needs are so great, even a stronger federal response wouldn't resolve the problems his health network now faces.

"I just wonder how fast they can move," he says. "When you need it, you needed it yesterday."


• Food services company Aramark’s ARMK, -4.07% uniform services division has shifted production lines to make much-needed personal protective equipment for health care and other essential. The Philadelphia-based company will make scrubs, masks and isolation gowns, instead of its usual lab coats, work shirts, pants and coveralls. The company managed to convert its facilities in just one week and expects to produce millions of pieces of equipment once it is fully operational. A first shipment of scrubs and gowns was delivered last week and respirator and medical mask delivery is expected to begin mid-July. The PPE will be shipped from plants in Mexico to clients across the U.S. in the health care, pharmaceutical, biotech, medical device and other industries where it’s needed
3D PRINTING 
Boeing, Nucor spearhead efforts to build protective gear for health care workers 

A Boeing worker shows the plastic protective face shield the company has rapidly designed, in partnership with Seattle nonprofit Design that Matters. Boeing delivered its first donated shipment of 2,300 face shields Friday to the federal government.
JOANNA WINGBERMUEHLE | BOEING

By Andrew McIntosh – Staff Writer, Puget Sound Business Journal
Apr 10, 2020

Two manufacturing heavyweights, jet maker Boeing and steel maker Nucor, have stepped up to design, manufacture and donate clear protective face shields for health care workers battling the COVID-19 pandemic.

The shipments address shortages of personal protective equipment across the United States.

Boeing's Puget Sound facilities in Auburn, Everett, Renton, and Tukwila, as well as Portland, have joined a companywide effort to make 3D-printed face shields for hospitals and frontline medical professionals fighting the pandemic, in coordination with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

Boeing said an initial shipment of 2,300 face shields was delivered to the Department of Health and Human Services Friday morning, hours after it was reportedly weighing plans to cut 10 percent of its 161,000 workforce.


Howard Rolleston, a Boeing additive manufacturing innovation cell leader in Philadelphia, said “people have been coming out of the woodwork” to volunteer on the jet maker's protective face shield for healthcare workers project.

FEMA will now deliver the shields to the Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center in Dallas, an alternate care site that's been created to treat patients with COVID-19.

Nucor workers at the company's West Seattle facility have also designed and produced shields. Workers donated their first batch of 20 to the Providence Mount St. Vincent assisted living facility for seniors in that part of the city on April 2. "The Mount" is a 300,000-square-foot facility in Seattle that employs nearly 500 workers on its four-city-block campus.

Since then, and with community support, the Seattle engineers and others for the Charlotte-based steel maker have now made and delivered around 500 face shields to area hospitals, clinics, and care facilities, Nucor Seattle Environmental Manager Patrick Jablonski said.

After the early effort was highlighted by the West Seattle Blog, several area high schools, technical schools and local residents stepped forward, loaning idle equipment and personal equipment to assist the effort at the steel mill, Jablonski said.


Engineers and other staffers at Nucor West Seattle are making face shields, as seen here, that are being donated to health care facilities. After learning of their efforts, Puget Sound region schools have loaned equipment to the group to increase production.
NUCOR WEST SEATTLE


Nucor now estimates it can make around 100 face shields per day and that's growing. Its school partners include: Franklin Pierce School District, West Sound Tech, Seattle Christian, the Chehalis School District, and Tacoma School District, Jablonski said.

"When our community learned of this effort, they stepped up to help and we have gone from 100 face shields in a week to about 100 face shields per day," he said. "We are proud to be able to use our resources to contribute to solutions, but we are even more humbled by the response and immediacy with which our neighbors acted to help. We are all in this together.”

Nucor says its engineers who specialize in additive manufacturing are also now researching and designing various forms of respirator components that can be fitted with household media like coffee and vacuum filters.

Meanwhile, Boeing said it partnered with Design that Matters, a Redmond-based nonprofit group, on a design, which includes a 3D-printed frame with an adjustable headband. That allows the Boeing version of the clear plastic face shield to be easily snapped onto the frame.

Two major Boeing suppliers are playing important roles on the volunteer project, the jet maker said. Solvay is supplying clear film for shields. Its composite materials division has done business with Boeing for decades. Trelleborg Sealing Solutions, another longtime supplier, is donating straps needed for adjustable headbands.


Eaton and Regional Manufacturing Partners Support Ohio Medical Workers with 360,000 Face Shields in Battle Against New Coronavirus


Business Wire April 9, 2020

Eaton leverages manufacturing expertise, 3D printing capabilities to rapidly develop face shields and help address critical protective equipment shortages


Collaboration with Thogus and Cleveland’s Manufacturing Advocacy and Growth Network helps scale production, boost Ohio’s crisis response inventory

The global COVID-19 crisis is placing unprecedented demands on government and healthcare organizations, driving a critical need for front line workers’ access to personal protective equipment (PPE). Power management company Eaton (NYSE:ETN) is using its manufacturing, 3D printing expertise and partner network to fulfill a JobsOhio order for rapid production of 360,000 reusable face shields to strengthen the state’s fight against the virus.

This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200409005733/en/

Eaton used 3D printing to address critical protective equipment shortfalls. Hundreds of thousands of face shields are being supplied to hospitals in the fight against COVID-19. (Photo: Business Wire)

Eaton collaborated with multiple hospitals and Cleveland’s Manufacturing Advocacy and Growth Network (MAGNET) to optimize the face shield design for production. Now, Eaton is working with Thogus, a local family-owned custom plastic injection molder, to rapidly produce the critical equipment at scale.

"Ten business days ago, this project was just a concept. Today, we’re moving forward with production and looking to expand further," said Michael Regelski, senior vice president and chief technology officer, Electrical Sector at Eaton. "By leveraging our advanced manufacturing capabilities and strong network of partners, we’re helping Ohio quickly respond to current inventory challenges and maximize accessibility of critical PPE resources for front line teams combatting COVID-19."

Eaton’s additive manufacturing capabilities are instrumental to fast-paced design incorporating customer feedback and ability to easily scale production to meet the immediate needs of communities around the world.

Learn more about how Eaton is joining the fight against COVID-19.

Eaton’s mission is to improve the quality of life and the environment through the use of power management technologies and services. We provide sustainable solutions that help our customers effectively manage electrical, hydraulic, and mechanical power – more safely, more efficiently, and more reliably. Eaton’s 2019 revenues were $21.4 billion, and we sell products to customers in more than 175 countries. We have approximately 97,000 employees.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200409005733/en/


Lowe’s boosts employee pay, cuts hours and steps up social-distancing protocols amid COVID-19 crisis
Lowe's has more than 2,200 stores. MELISSA KEY/CBJ

COMPANIES
IN THIS ARTICLE
Lowe's Cos. Inc.

Mooresville, NC

Retailer

$71.3BRevenue

175KEmployees

By Jennifer Thomas – Senior Staff Writer, Charlotte Business Journal
Apr 2, 2020

Lowe’s Cos. Inc. (NYSE: LOW) is taking steps to protect its employees and customers as the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, continues to spread.

The Mooresville-based retailer announced operational changes on Thursday, including plans to close stores at 7 p.m., limit the number of customers allowed in each store and take additional steps to better enforce social-distancing protocols.

That list also includes a pay bump of $2 per hour for full-time, part-time and seasonal hourly employees throughout the month of April. The home-improvement giant has more than 300,000 employees at 2,200 stores. Roughly 90% of employees at Lowe’s stores, contact centers and supply-chain facilities in the U.S. and Canada are hourly employees.

The company is in the process of hiring 30,000 additional employees.

"We are continually working on ways to protect and support our associates and our customers during this time when we are all adjusting how we work and live," says Marvin Ellison, Lowe’s president and CEO.

The changes come two days after Lowe’s confirmed two employees in Charlotte had tested positive for COVID-19. Rival Home Depot announced stricter safety protocols on Wednesday as well.

Other changes dial in on store layout and social-distancing measures.

Lowe’s has developed a new app that allows store managers to monitor foot traffic and limit entrance by customers based on guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and local officials. Social-distancing ambassadors are being added to monitor customer flow in garden centers and front-end areas and enforce occupancy limits for proper social distancing. Floor markers spaced 6 feet apart have been added to guide customers. Those add to existing signage encouraging social distancing and overhead announcements every 15 minutes to remind customers.

Plexiglass shields have been installed at all points of sale. The retailer is also making gloves and masks available to all employees.

Lowe’s has updated store layouts to open up aisles by removing displays from main aisles and removing racing and tables in other aisles to open up space. It has expanded space dedicated to the Buy Online, Pick Up in Store option and for returns.

The 7 p.m. closing — 90 minutes earlier than normal on most days — will provide additional time to replenish essential products and thoroughly clean and sanitize stores. Lowe’s has increased third-party cleaning shifts at its stores.

Lowe’s says it has committed $170 million in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

That includes $80 million in special payments to full- and part-time, hourly employees. Another $25 million goes directly to support the needs of its employees, customers and communities — including $10 million for critical products for medical personnel.

The company has extended emergency paid leave up to four weeks for those at higher risk and expanded telemedicine benefits for all employees.
JUBILEE
Global business, workers, civil society join call for debt relief for poorer nations
Reuters April 10, 2020

WASHINGTON, April 10 (Reuters) - The International Chamber of Commerce on Friday joined a global trade union and a major civil society group to urge immediate debt relief for the world's poorest countries to help them fight the coronavirus pandemic and mitigate its economic impact.

In an open letter to finance ministers, the groups also urged countries to contribute to the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust, an International Monetary Fund instrument that provides debt service relief to its poorest members.

The ICC, the International Trade Union Confederation and Global Citizen, a group pushing to end extreme poverty by 2030, warned that failure to address the debt and financing needs of developing countries could trigger a series of debt defaults that would have devastating and wide-ranging consequences.

"We are concerned that a failure to immediately address the debt and financing needs of developing countries during this unprecedented crisis will result in large-scale loss of lives and livelihoods — potentially resulting in a fundamental collapse of social and economic systems," the groups wrote.

The letter reflects increasing support for a push by the World Bank and IMF for official bilateral creditors to temporarily suspend debt payments for the poorest countries, which will be hit hardest by the pandemic.

Details of the IMF-World Bank proposal are still being finalized ahead of debate by finance officials at the virtual Spring Meetings of the Fund and the Bank next week.

On Friday, the Institution of International Finance, which includes over 450 banks, hedge funds and other financial firms, also backed the call. Other backers include the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops and the Jubilee USA Network alliance of faith groups.

Nearly 140 campaign groups and charities, including Oxfam and Save the Children, have also urged the Group of 20 major economies and private creditors to cancel debt payments.

In their open letter, published Friday, the ICC, ITUC and Global Citizen warned that some developing countries now faced an "impossible choice" between servicing sovereign debt repayments or paying nurses and purchasing ventilators.

"Without urgent action, we see a fundamental risk that a series of debt defaults will further exacerbate the unprecedented economic downturn already unfolding before us," the groups said. (Reporting by Andrea Shalal, Editing by Rosalba O'Brien)

World Bank's Malpass upbeat on prospects for progress on debt relief

By Andrea Shalal Reuters April 10, 2020


FILE PHOTO: World Bank President David Malpass attends the "1+6" Roundtable meeting at the Diaoyutai state guesthouse in BeijingMore


By Andrea Shalal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - World Bank Group President David Malpass on Friday said he was confident of progress on his joint call with the International Monetary Fund for a temporary standstill in official bilateral debt payments by the world's poorest countries.

Malpass said the proposal would be discussed next week by finance officials of both the Group of Seven (G7) and Group of 20 (G20) economies, and he expected a "broad endorsement" by the 25-member joint Development Committee of the World Bank and IMF when it meets on Friday.

"The world’s poor are looking to the international community to show decisive leadership on debt relief, and I am confident of progress," he said in a posting on LinkedIn.

The World Bank and the IMF first issued their call for debt relief on March 25. [nL1N2BI15A] The initiative won significant backing over the past week, including from the Institute of International Finance, a group that represents over 450 global banks, hedge funds and other financial firms. [nL2N2BX1HW]

The proposal calls for China and other big creditors to suspend debt payments from International Development Association (IDA) countries beginning May 1, freeing up resources for them to fight against the pandemic. The IDA countries are home to a quarter of the world’s population and two-thirds of the world’s population living in extreme poverty.

Malpass said the proposal was discussed twice this week during working-level meetings of the G20, and would be on the agenda during virtual ministerial level meetings next week.

Two sources familiar with the discussions said G20 finance officials were likely to endorse the proposal when they meet online on April 15. The issue is particularly critical for G20 member China, which has sharply increased lending to developing countries over the past two decades.

China's government, banks and companies lent some $143 billion to Africa between 2000-2017, much of it for large-scale infrastructure projects, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. By some estimates, Chinese lending now dwarfs World Bank loans in Africa.

Malpass said borrowers that requested forbearance would be expected to ask for "at least comparable terms" from commercial creditors. In return for the suspended payments, beneficiary countries would commit to debt transparency and agree to direct additional resources toward health and economic needs, he said.

He said the World Bank and IMF would work closely with IDA countries and creditors to evaluate each country's debt sustainability outlook based on reconciled debt data and debt service requirements.

Malpass last month said IDA countries faced official bilateral debt service obligations of $14 billion through the end of 2020.


Pandemic debt relief needs private sector involvement - IIF

Reuters April 9, 2020



WASHINGTON, April 9 (Reuters) - Both private and public sector initiatives are needed to help the world's poorest countries deal with pandemic-related debt challenges, the Institute of International Finance, which includes over 450 banks, hedge funds and other global financial firms, said on Thursday.

In a letter to the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, OECD and Paris Club, the group welcomed a proposal from the World Bank and the IMF calling on official bilateral creditors to suspend debt payments for the poorest countries, if asked.

It said both official and private creditors should commit to debt payment forbearance for those countries for a specific period of time, without waiving payment obligation, adding that all types of private creditors and obligations should be treated alike, regardless whether they are foreign or domestic. (Reporting by Andrea Shalal Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)


Catholic bishops, faith groups urge Trump to back debt relief for poor countries


By Andrea Shalal Reuters April 8, 2020


WASHINGTON, April 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops and an alliance of faith groups have urged President Donald Trump to champion a moratorium on debt payments for poor countries hit by the coronavirus pandemic that has triggered a global recession.

In a letter sent to the U.S. president on Wednesday, the groups said U.S. leadership was needed to both to help the 76 poorest countries in the world combat the pandemic and safeguard U.S. economic interests.

A move by rich countries, the Group of 20 major economies, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to suspend debt payments for those countries would allow them to bolster their health systems and provide for their own health safety, the groups wrote in a letter dated Wednesday.

The novel coronavirus that emerged in China in December has raced around the globe, infecting 1.41 million people and killing 87,700, according to a Reuters tally.

The IMF and World Bank, backed by the World Health Organization, have called on China, the United States and other bilateral creditors to temporarily suspend debt payments by the poorest countries so they could use the money to halt the spread of the disease and mitigate its financial impact.

G20 finance ministers and central bankers are due to consider the issue when they meet online next week during the Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank.

The letter from the Catholic bishops and Jubilee USA Network, a non-profit alliance of religious, development and advocacy groups, comes amid growing concern about the high level of debt of developing countries and emerging market economies.

"The current financial crisis threatens U.S. imports and exports from and to the developing world," the bishops and Jubilee USA wrote. "Providing a suspension of debt payments and debt relief will help safeguard our common interests of returning the U.S. economy to prosperity and growth."

The groups said the debt payment moratorium should both be interest-free, and expose all debts, including private and predatory loans.

Such a decision could help better assess debt sustainability and vulnerabilities, and, if warranted, trigger a process to restructure debt, the groups told the U.S. president.

Lending by Western countries and multilateral institutions slowed after a major round of debt restructuring in 1996, but the Chinese government, banks and companies have dramatically expanded their lending to developing countries since then. (Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Michael Perry)



30% of Americans say coronavirus was made in a lab, despite evidence to the contrary, Pew survey finds
Published: April 13, 2020 By Quentin Fottre

Younger U.S. adults were more likely than older people to say the virus was developed in a laboratory


Beliefs about the origins of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, are also split along educational lines. MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto

What’s the difference between an urban myth and a fact supported by evidence? Not a lot, it seems.

Nearly 3 in 10 (29%) Americans say the novel coronavirus was most likely created in a laboratory, according to a survey of nearly 9,000 adults in the U.S. conducted from March 10 to 16, 2020 by the Pew Research Center, a nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank.

23 SKIDOO 
However, a sizable minority have a conspiracy theory about how it started. Roughly one quarter of adults (23%) say it is most likely that the current strain of coronavirus was developed intentionally in a laboratory, while 6% say it was most likely made accidentally in a lab.
That’s despite evidence that the virus came about naturally and jumped from a bat in a food market to another animal and then to a human, according to scientists, “though there is some uncertainty about how it first infected people,” Pew noted.

Younger U.S. adults were more likely than older people to say the virus was developed in a lab: One-third of adults aged 18 to 29 said it was developed in a lab (35%) versus 21% of adults 65 and older. Experts say it likely emerged at a food market in Wuhan, China.

Some 10,056 of the 23,608 U.S. fatalities were in New York State, as of Monday; almost 7,000 of those were in New York City. Nearly 189,000 of the 581,918 confirmed cases in the U.S. were in New York State. There number of confirmed cases worldwide hit 2 million, with nearly 120,000 deaths.
WALL ST AIN'T MAIN ST.
16 million people just got laid off but U.S. stocks had their best week in 45 years


Not unusual for Wall St. every time a corporation listed lays off workers its stocks go up why not the stock market itself

Published: April 13, 2020 By Andrea Riquier

Don’t fight the Fed.




This was the best of weeks, and it was the worst of weeks.***


To start with the “worst:” we learned that 6.6 million more people filed for unemployment for the first time, for a three-week tally of more than 16 million and taking the jobless rate up to 10% or more, even as it likely underestimates the number of people who haven’t been able to get through to overburdened state unemployment systems.

The “best” part may have been just as unsettling. Stocks had their best week in over four decades, with the Dow DJIA, -1.38% up 12.67%, the S&P 500 SPX, -1.01% gaining 12.1%, and the Nasdaq COMP, +0.47% up 10.59%.

In fact, two sectors of the S&P 500 charted their strongest week ever. The chart above shows the sector performances, with data from Dow Jones Market Data. The real estate sector was only launched in 2016; historical data before that is back-tested. All the other sector data dates back to 1989.

What gives?

First, it’s important to note that many strategists think markets haven’t fully grasped the scope of the devastation the coronavirus will wreak on the economy, let alone the human toll. And for now, the unprecedented actions by the Federal Reserve and other central banks are helping keep investors numb.

“Stocks are up because the damage to the economy — evident in claims — is beyond comprehension, while the response of the Fed is easier to understand,” wrote Chris Low, chief economist for FHN Financial, in a note out Thursday after the jobless claims data.

And most strategists think stocks are likely to take a leg lower from here. Investors haven’t yet had a true “capitulation,” Kim Forrest, founder and CIO of Bokeh Capital Management, told MarketWatch. Analysts at Goldman Sachs agree.

Still, there may be some historical context for understanding what’s going on.

In an analysis published Thursday, investor Ned Davis notes that the stock market does better than average when unemployment spikes. Davis’ research shows that a jobless rate over 6% correlates with the stock market rising 13.7% per annum.

“How can this be?” Davis wrote. “It defies logic. My explanation would be that this news is widely followed, and the market tends to look ahead. So it is probably priced in.”

It’s also probably in large part because of the central bank’s punchbowl, Davis added. Very high unemployment “can send the Fed into overdrive in terms of making money cheaper and more easily available… When the Fed helps investment grade bond yields plunge, it has been a good buy signal for stocks.”

The Fed on Thursday pledged more support for investment grade bonds, and some limited support for sub-investment grade debt.

Related:American businesses are tapping their credit lines at the fastest pace ever

Nicholas Colas, co-founder of investment research shop DataTrek Research, also had some thoughts on the link between the real economy and markets, in an analysis released Friday. “The issuance of money sits at the intersection of public trust and government responsibility,” Colas wrote.

“It is tempting to think that the Fed’s actions today means US stock prices will only trend higher from here: When you remove near term bankruptcy risk from every publicly held company regardless of credit rating or near-term financial condition, asset prices should rise,” Colas added. “Markets know that no matter how bad cash flow might be there is a Fed loan backstop waiting in the wings if needed.”

What’s more, he said, “The Fed knows it must keep equity markets stable to rising in order to keep the 40% of Americans who own stocks sufficiently liquid and confident to spark a recovery in consumer spending. This is the classic wealth effect, something the Federal Reserve understands well.”

It’s worth pointing out that if 40% of Americans own stocks, (MANY BY WAY OF THEIR RETIREMENT PLANS) 60% do not. And not only are those people not sparking a trickle-down recovery, they may be just trying to keep food on the table.


***It was the best of times, it was the worst of times it was the of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way in short, the period was so far like the present period that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only

CHARLES DICKENS 
A TALE OF TWO CITIES 
https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.185764/page/n11/mode/2up
Deadly Virus Fails to Trigger World Bank’s Pandemic Bonds

Tasos Vossos and John Lauerman Bloomberg April 10, 2020


(Bloomberg) --

The outbreak of coronavirus failed to trigger payouts from bonds that the World Bank issued to provide emergency pandemic resources, even after almost 100,000 global deaths from Covid-19.

The highly contagious coronavirus outbreak, deemed a pandemic a month ago by the World Health Organization and the cause of a global economic downturn, is not enough to trigger payouts from the World Bank’s pandemic bonds, an independent arbiter decided on Thursday.

AIR Worldwide Corporation published its so-called eligible event report, determining that the outbreak hadn’t met the “exponential growth rate” criterion in eligible countries, the World Bank said in a statement dated April 9. The determinations are final and binding on the World Bank and the investors. A World Bank spokesperson was not immediately available for comments.

AIR is continually reviewing the situation and will issue its next report on April 17.

The decision follows months of speculation on whether holders of the high-coupon bonds would finally take a hit to free up cash for struggling health systems. Poor countries that stand to benefit from the bonds are under increasing threat as the number of cases in Africa now exceeds 12,000, with more than 600 deaths.

“You can see the thing coming like a train, and these countries are going to need a response,” including patient testing and isolation, said Andrew Farlow, an economist at the University of Oxford who studies pandemics. “It’s bizarre and counterproductive that you have to wait.”

The bonds have drawn criticism for their arcane structure and a rigid process that took 122 days since the start of the outbreak to lead to a decision, which ended up blocking funds for struggling health systems anyway.

“Even if the bonds paid out as much as possible, payouts will have been too expensive, too slow and too small” said Dr Felix Stein, a senior research fellow at the University of Edinburgh. “The PEF did not work, even before the Covid-19 pandemic struck,” he said.

A writedown would have resulted in about $132.5 million moving to the World Bank’s Pandemic Emergency Financing Facility, becoming available for poor countries eligible for funding from the International Development Association. Investors have been receiving coupons of 6.5% over six-month Libor on the safe $225 million tranche and 11.1% above Libor on the risky notes ever since the bonds were issued in July 2017.

Bondholders this week were divided on the outcome before AIR released the report. One asset manager’s internal calculations pointed to a writedown, while another thought the growth rate was still not sufficient to trigger losses.

Prices on the secondary market suggested that a writedown was imminent, with the risky tranche indicated at mere cents on the dollar in March. The pandemic bonds are illiquid and prices typically come from a handful of specialized dealers.

The World Bank began selling the high-yielding securities a year after the most severe outbreak of Ebola virus on record ended in 2016. They’re modeled on catastrophe bonds that pay out in response to insurance claims for events like hurricanes.

The bonds are triggered by patterns in deaths from certain infectious diseases. Critics have said that they’re structured in a way that makes payouts late and unlikely.

“With epidemics like this, it’s extremely important to stop them as soon as possible, to stop them early because of the exponential growth that can occur,” said Olga Jonas, a senior fellow at the Harvard Global Health Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, who was previously the World Bank’s economist coordinating avian and pandemic influenza.


©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
Calpers Missed a $1 Billion Payday by Scrapping Market Hedge
Erik Schatzker Bloomberg April 10, 2020


(Bloomberg) -- Three years ago, America’s largest pension fund made an unusual investment. It bought so-called tail-risk protection, a kind of insurance against financial catastrophe. In a market meltdown like the one sparked by the coronavirus, the strategy promised a massive payout -- more than $1 billion.

If only the California Public Employees Retirement System had stuck with the plan. Instead, Calpers, as the fund is known, removed one of its two hedges against a bear market just weeks before the viral outbreak sent stocks reeling, according to people familiar with its decision.

The timing couldn’t have been worse. The fund had incurred hundreds of millions of dollars in premium-like costs for those investments. Then it missed out on a bonanza when disaster finally struck.

Softening the blow, Calpers held on to the second hedge long enough to make several hundred million dollars, one of the people said.

Ben Meng, chief investment officer of Calpers, said the fund terminated the hedges because they were costly and other risk-management tools are more effective, cheaper and better suited to an asset manager of its size.

“At times like this, we need to strongly resist ‘resulting bias’ -- looking at recent results and then using those results to judge the merits of a decision,” Meng said in a statement. “We are a long-term investor. For the size and complexity of our portfolio, we need to think differently.”

Calpers had been warned about the perils of shifting strategy. At an August 2019 meeting of its investment committee, Andrew Junkin, then one of the pension plan’s consultants at Wilshire Associates, reviewed the $200 million of tail-risk investments.

“Remember what those are there for,” Junkin told Calpers executives and board members, according to a transcript. “In normal markets, or in markets that are slightly up or slightly down, or even massively up, those strategies aren’t going to do well. But there could be a day when the market is down significantly, and we come in and we report that the risk-mitigation strategies are up 1,000%.”

Costly Flip-Flop

Sure enough, the position Calpers gave up generated a 3,600% return in March. The costly flip-flop demonstrates the pitfalls of trying to time stock-market hedging. Like many insurance products, tail-risk protection seems expensive when you need it least.

That’s especially true at a pension fund. Calpers tries to generate an annual return of 7% on its investments, leaving little room for error at a time when risk-free rates are close to zero. This kind of bear-market hedge can cost $5 million a year for every $1 billion protected, according to Dean Curnutt, chief executive officer of Macro Risk Advisors, which devises risk-management strategies for institutional investors.

“It becomes hard to establish and hold these hedges because they eat away at precious returns,” Curnutt said. “Pension funds have return targets that are highly unrealistic.”

Seeking Protection

Calpers, based in Sacramento, manages about $350 billion to fund the retirement benefits for some 2 million state employees, from firefighters to librarians to garbage collectors. When the pension plan doesn’t meet its 7% target, taxpayers may have to kick in more money to make sure there’s enough to meet its long-term obligations.

Half of Calpers’s assets are in stocks, and historically it has tried to blunt the impact of market downturns by investing in bonds, real estate, private equity and hedge funds. Over the past 20 years, the portfolio has returned 5.8% annually, compared with 5.9% for the S&P 500 and about 4.6% for an index of Treasuries.

In 2016, Ted Eliopoulos, then Calpers’s chief investment officer, asked his staff to investigate ways of protecting its stock holdings from crashes such as those in 1987, 2001 and 2008, according to the people familiar with the fund. He’d been inspired by Nassim Taleb, the former options trader who wrote about the probabilities of rare but devastating events in his 2007 bestseller “The Black Swan.”

The year after the book was published, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, stocks imploded and the global economy seized up. Calpers reported a 23% loss in 12 months, and Taleb became a celebrity.

Rare Events

Tail-risk hedging evolved from probability theory. In statistics, the fat belly of a bell curve represents events that are likeliest to occur while the skinny tail ends indicate those that are possible but infrequent, such as a collapse in financial markets.



In 2017, Calpers hired two outside fund managers to provide tail-risk protection. Universa Investments, a Miami-based firm advised by Taleb, provided the potentially more profitable hedge; LongTail Alpha in Newport Beach, California, the second one.

The investments, initially small and exploratory, quadrupled in size over the following two years. They ultimately safeguarded the pension plan against losses on several billion dollars, the people familiar with the situation said.

The program wasn’t cheap. Calpers calculated that in the year ended June 30, 2019, the Universa and LongTail Alpha investments reduced its 12-month return by a total of 4 basis points, or roughly $140 million.

Some of the hedging expense was management fees. Public filings show Calpers paid Universa $22.5 million and LongTail Alpha $3.2 million that year. The remaining cost reflected the declining value, or bleed, of the underlying positions at a time of low market volatility.

‘Price Matters’

At its peak, the Universa hedge was enough to protect some $5 billion of Calpers’s $200 billion in public equities, and Eliopoulos had plans to double the program’s size, the people said. It’s unclear how extensive the LongTail Alpha position was.

Most institutional investors prefer a more traditional approach to risk management, such as diversifying assets and holding Treasuries. Insurance is harder to grasp and fund managers typically balk at the idea of investing in anything that loses money most of the time, according to Macro Risk Advisors’ Curnutt.

“Tail-risk hedging does work,” Curnutt said. “But the price matters quite a bit.”

The payoffs can be staggering. In an April 7 letter to clients, Universa said its fund returned 3,612% in March. Calpers could have used that windfall of more than $1 billion to buy more stocks at lower prices or stayed in cash.

Longtail Alpha reported to clients on April 3 that its tail-risk hedge fund gained 929% last month.

Eliopoulos left Calpers in late 2018 and joined Morgan Stanley as a vice chairman. He declined to comment.

Meng, a former Wall Street trader, was skeptical of tail-risk hedging and ordered a review of the program as part of a wider effort to reduce the number of outside asset managers that Calpers paid, the people familiar with the situation said. A number of his subordinates argued in favor of keeping the hedges in place, saying it was only a matter of time before the 10-year bull market in stocks came to an end, the people said.

They lost the battle, and Calpers moved to redeem its tail-risk investments. It gave notice to Universa in October and by January no longer had the position in place that would have paid out more than $1 billion, according to those with knowledge of the decision.

LongTail Alpha persuaded Meng to hold on for longer, and fortunately he did. Because that hedge wasn’t terminated until March 31 -- after the stock-market rout -- Calpers was able to reap several hundred million dollars.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
AIRLINE LAYOFFS
Delta Cut to Junk by Fitch as 35,000 Workers Take Leave

Mary Schlangenstein and Hailey Waller Bloomberg April 10, 2020


(Bloomberg) --

Delta Air Lines Inc. was cut to junk at Fitch Ratings as part of a general downgrade of the U.S. airline industry and its ability to service debt. The assessment adds urgency to the Trump administration’s desire to save the industry.

Fitch on Friday lowered its rating on Delta’s debt to “BB+” from “BBB-” and warned that another downgrade is possible as air travel suffers with the spread of the coronavirus. The airline does, however, have more financial flexibility than some rivals, Fitch said in an assessment of the industry.

Delta, Alaska Air Group Inc. and Southwest Airlines Co. are the “better-positioned U.S. carriers to weather the expected downturn,” Fitch said.

Other downgrades by Fitch on Friday include:

Alaska Air downgraded to “BB+” from “BBB-”American Airlines downgraded by one notch to “B”JetBlue Airways downgraded to “BB” from “BB+”Southwest downgraded to “BBB+” from “A-”United Airlines Holdings Inc. downgraded to “BB-” from “BB”

President Donald Trump said on Friday that U.S. airlines must be saved. Responding to a tweet about the $50 billion bailout airlines are asking for, he said, “Not good...but it is what it is. Have to save the airlines!”

Airline Grants

Trump’s administration has announced as much as $32 billion in payroll grants for airlines, contractors and cargo carriers, controlled by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

Outside firms are advising Mnuchin on the terms he should set, including what he’ll demand from the airlines in return, such as warrants for equity in the companies. Mnuchin has said the money should be more than a bailout: he’s solicited proposals from the airlines for terms on receiving the aid, and has issued guidance.

“Though Delta remains a stronger credit than its network peers, debt raised to sustain liquidity through the pandemic will drive credit metrics outside of a range supportive of investment-grade ratings at least through 2021 and likely into 2022,” Fitch said in a statement.

Airlines have been battered by the collapse in travel, and have responded by offering workers leaves, grounding planes, cutting flights and freezing hiring, among other steps. The number of passengers screened at airport security checkpoints has fallen more than 90% from a year ago, the Transportation Security Administration has said.

Unpaid Leave

Delta said almost 35,000 employees have taken voluntary, unpaid leave and is encouraging more to apply.

Volunteers to take unpaid leave “are by far the most impactful” step the carrier is taking to reduce operating costs, Chief Executive Officer Ed Bastian told workers in a memo. The airline is enhancing benefits provided to those taking time off and is extending absences of as long as a year to encourage more to apply, he said.

Delta’s flying capacity at New York’s LaGuardia Airport has been cut by more than 90% this month, and by more than 80% at New York’s John F. Kennedy and Newark, New Jersey’s, Liberty Airport, Bastian said.

The airline lost its investment-grade status at S&P Global Ratings last month.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P

Air Zimbabwe to put workers on unpaid leave over coronavirus


Reuters April 10, 2020

HARARE, April 10 (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's state-owned airline will put workers on indefinite unpaid leave after revenue dried up with the new coronavirus outbreak virtually grounding global air travel, an internal notice to employees seen by Reuters said.

With $300 million of debt, Air Zimbabwe was already facing financial trouble before the outbreak of the virus.

The perennially loss-making national carrier said it would retain skeleton staff for adhoc operations and airworthiness compliance, adding that wages remained its biggest cost. Employees would, however, receive their April salaries.

"Some of us will be put on indefinite unpaid leave from 23 April 2020 until operations normalise," the notice said.

Air Zimbabwe spokesman Firstme Vitori confirmed the airline was putting workers on indefinite leave because there was no money to "fund financial obligations, including staff salaries".

Hotels across Zimbabwe have been forced to shut due to low tourist arrivals and after the government imposed a 21-day national lockdown to combat the spread of the coronavirus.

Air Zimbabwe has in the last decade cut its employee numbers from 1,000 to 232.

The airline, which has one plane in operation, suspended flights on March 26. (Reporting by MacDonald Dzirutwe; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
CRYPTOCURRENCY CRIMINAL CAPITALISM
U.S. federal court unseals indictment against OneCoin pyramid scheme co-founder


Michael McSweeney The BlockApril 11, 2020


U.S. prosecutors indicted a key figure in the OneCoin digital currency pyramid scheme on wire fraud, securities fraud and money laundering charges, according to a newly-unsealed complaint.

Karl Sebastian Greenwood was indicted in February 2018, according to court documents. OneCoin, a now-infamous investment scam, was perhaps the most notable of a slew of digital currency-focused pyramid schemes to emerge in the past five years. Greenwood was apprehended in November of that year, according to a report by the Bangkok Post.

The indictment accuses Greenwood of conspiring to defraud would-be investors into buying OneCoin packages, which promoters claimed could then be used to "mine" OneCoins. As with many pyramid schemes, the goal of participants was to sell those packages and bring new participants into the scheme.

According to the court documents, such efforts brought in "over $1 billion of investors funds" between 2014 and January 2018.

As prosecutors wrote:
"...GREENWOOD, and others working on his behalf, made and caused to be made false statements and misrepresentations soliciting individuals throughout the world, including in the Southern District of New York, to invest in 'OneCoin' a purported cryptocurrency, and instructed individuals to transmit investment funds to OneCoin depository accounts in order to purchase OneCoin packages, thereby causing individuals to send interstate and international wires representing their OneCoin investments, and resulting in the receipt of over $1 billion of investor funds into OneCoin[-]related bank accounts."

As reported by BehindMLM.com, Greenwood's pretrial conference is scheduled for June 3.

Other figures, including ringleaders Ruja Ignatova and Konstantin Ignatov, have been indicted by U.S. officials, though Ignatova – the so-called "Cryptoqueen" remains at large. Ignatov was arrested in March 2018 at the time of his indictment.

“As alleged, these defendants created a multibillion-dollar 'cryptocurrency' company based completely on lies and deceit. They promised big returns and minimal risk, but, as alleged, this business was a pyramid scheme based on smoke and mirrors more than zeroes and ones," Manhattan U.S. Attorney Geoffrey S. Berman said at the time.

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