BRINGING THE WAR HOME

Here’s a look at the nuclear sub, other Russian warships that will visit Cuba next week

IT'S SIXTIES FLASHBACK WEEK

Cuban authorities said that Moscow is also sending the Kazan, a Yasen-class nuclear-powered submarine, to Havana as part of the deployment.

Michael Wilner
Thu, June 6, 2024 

The Cuban armed forces announced Thursday that Russia will dock three naval vessels and one nuclear-powered submarine at the port in Havana next week.

U.S. intelligence officials assess that none of the vessels will be carrying nuclear weapons, and the Biden administration is dismissing the Russian movements as a messaging ploy in response to U.S. assistance to Ukraine. But the deployment is expected to be part of a larger Russian military exercise in the Caribbean over the coming weeks, involving both warships and aircraft, that could be the most significant Russian activity in the region in at least five years.

What ships will Russia deploy to Cuba?

The main warship in the Russian deployment is the Admiral Gorshkov, a state-of-the-art frigate that is the lead ship in a new class of six combat vessels Moscow has commissioned through 2025.

Gorshkov-class ships can serve multiple roles for the Russian Navy, capable of performing anything from long-range attacks to escort missions or anti-submarine warfare — duties often reserved for destroyer-class ships. They are equipped with Russia’s most advanced weapons and sensor technology and can each carry a single attack helicopter on board.

APRIL 7, 2023: The Russian frigate Admiral Gorshkov holds exercises in the Red Sea. Russian Defence Ministry Press Office/TASS/Sipa USA

Just last month, a video shared on social media by the Russian Armed Forces showed a NATO reconnaissance aircraft in the crosshairs of Gorshkov’s crew in the North Atlantic.

The second Russian ship in the deployment is the Nikolay Chiker, a tug point and icebreaker that last year was tracked by British authorities while stalking critical oil and gas pipelines near the Scottish coastal region of Shetland.

The second ship, the Pashin, is an oil tanker that is part of the Russian Navy’s Arctic fleet.
What kind of submarine is involved?

Cuban authorities said that Moscow is also sending the Kazan, a Yasen-class nuclear-powered submarine, to Havana as part of the deployment.

The Kazan is said to be a state-of-the-art submarine, part of a new class of vessels intended to replace Russia’s aging Soviet-era nuclear submarines, that are capable of carrying and firing nuclear cruise missiles. On a routine basis, they are presumed to be carrying land-attack cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, anti-submarine missiles, with a crew of up to 85 sailors.

In April, Russian-state media said the Kazan conducted a live-fire exercise, firing a conventional cruise missile at a coastal target in the Barents Sea.

Russian warships headed to Caribbean for drills as tensions rise over Ukraine, US officials say

TARA COPP
Wed, June 5, 2024 at 5:00 PM MDT·2 min read

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. has been tracking Russian warships and aircraft that are expected to arrive in the Caribbean for a military exercise in the coming weeks, in a Russian show of force as tensions rise over Western military support for Ukraine, U.S. officials said Wednesday.

The ships also are expected possibly to make port calls in Venezuela and Cuba, as Russia establishes a Western Hemisphere military presence that the senior Biden administration officials said was notable but not concerning. The exercise, which will be monitored by the U.S. military, will involve a “handful” of Russian ships and support vessels, the two officials said.

It's not the first time Russia has sent its ships to the Caribbean. This exercise, however, is taking place as Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested that Moscow could take “asymmetrical steps” elsewhere in the world in response to President Joe Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to use U.S.-provided weapons to strike inside Russia to protect Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city.

The officials, who spoke to reporters on the condition of anonymity to provide details that had not been announced publicly, said the exercise is “certainly” part of a broader Russian response to the U.S. support for Ukraine, but it also is an effort by Putin to show his navy is still capable of global power projection after losing several ships to Ukrainian strikes.

Ukrainian military officials said in March that Russia had lost one-third of its Black Sea fleet to Ukrainian strikes during the past two years of war.

Russia did not notify the U.S. of the pending exercise, but the ships’ movements have been tracked by the U.S. Navy, the officials said.

Despite Russia not notifying the U.S. — which countries often do to avoid miscalculation — the officials said militaries all over the globe have the right to conduct exercises in international waters and do so regularly. For example, on Friday about 20 NATO countries including the U.S. will begin BALTOPS 24, a major naval and air exercise in the Baltic region near Russia.

The officials said they expect the Russian ships will remain in the region through the summer and will likely conduct similar, follow-up exercises in the Caribbean after this one concludes.

The officials said Congress was notified of the upcoming Russian exercises on Wednesday.

Northern Fleet’s nuclear sub 'Kazan' makes port call to Havana next week

The top-modern, heavily armed, submarine is part of a Russian naval detachment of four ships that will stay in port of the Cuban capital from June 12 to June 17.


The Kazan is based at Nerpichya in Zapadnaya Litsa a short 60 km east of Russia's border with Norway on the Barents Sea coast. Photo: Press service of the Northern Fleet

ByThomas Nilsen     

THE BARENTS OBSERVER
June 06, 2024

“The visit corresponds to the historical friendly relations between Cuba and the Russian Federation,” a statement by Ministry of the Revolutionary Armed Forces reads.

The ministry finds reasons to underline that “none of the ships carry nuclear weapons.”

It was on May 17th the Northern Fleet detachment sailed out from the Kola Peninsula, heading for the North Atlantic. The three surface vessels in the group are the frigate Admiral Gorshkov, the oil tanker Pashin and the rescue tug Nikolai Chiker.

Russian navy tug ” Nikolay Chiker” at port in Severomorsk, Kola Peninsula. 

Photo: Thomas Nilsen

Somewhere outside the coast of Norway, the Admiral Gorshkov in exercise mode put an approaching NATO P-8 maritime patrol aircraft in gunsight, the Barents Observer reported.

The press service of the Northern Fleet this week posted another video from aboard the frigate, this time showing the crew launching a small quadcopter drone as target for artillery shooting.

The frigate carries a Ka-27M helicopter that at locations during the Atlantic voyage are training reconnaissance flights.

The Ka-27M helicopter operates out of the Admiral Gorshkov frigate. Here, somewhere in the North Atlantic this week. Photo: Information Service of the Northern Fleet

“The flights took place at a distance of up to 200 kilometers from the detachment of ships of the Northern Fleet and at altitudes of up to 1000 meters,” a Northern Fleet statement informs.

The Cuban Defense Ministry was first to announce the arrival of the Russian warships. By late Thursday, no official information is published by Russia’s Defense Ministry or the Northern Fleet about Havana as a first destination for the voyage that in May was said to last “for several months” on take place on “the world oceans.”

The Admiral Gorshkov is the lead vessel of Russia’s latest class of frigates. Commissioned in 2018, the warship can be armed with Tsirkon, Kalibr and Oniks cruise missiles, as well as Otvet anti-submarine missile.

Lead vessel of its class is also Kazan. The Yasen-M submarine was launched in 2017 and entered service with the Northern Fleet in 2021. This submarine can carry Oniks and Kalibr cruise missiles. The Defense Ministry in Moscow has previously said the Kazan will be armed with Tsirkon hypersonic missiles.

Russian warships headed to Caribbean for drills as tensions rise over Ukraine, US officials say

TARA COPP
Wed, June 5, 2024 at 5:00 PM

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. has been tracking Russian warships and aircraft that are expected to arrive in the Caribbean for a military exercise in the coming weeks, in a Russian show of force as tensions rise over Western military support for Ukraine, U.S. officials said Wednesday.

The ships also are expected possibly to make port calls in Venezuela and Cuba, as Russia establishes a Western Hemisphere military presence that the senior Biden administration officials said was notable but not concerning. The exercise, which will be monitored by the U.S. military, will involve a “handful” of Russian ships and support vessels, the two officials said.

It's not the first time Russia has sent its ships to the Caribbean. This exercise, however, is taking place as Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested that Moscow could take “asymmetrical steps” elsewhere in the world in response to President Joe Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to use U.S.-provided weapons to strike inside Russia to protect Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city.

The officials, who spoke to reporters on the condition of anonymity to provide details that had not been announced publicly, said the exercise is “certainly” part of a broader Russian response to the U.S. support for Ukraine, but it also is an effort by Putin to show his navy is still capable of global power projection after losing several ships to Ukrainian strikes.

Ukrainian military officials said in March that Russia had lost one-third of its Black Sea fleet to Ukrainian strikes during the past two years of war.

Russia did not notify the U.S. of the pending exercise, but the ships’ movements have been tracked by the U.S. Navy, the officials said.

Despite Russia not notifying the U.S. — which countries often do to avoid miscalculation — the officials said militaries all over the globe have the right to conduct exercises in international waters and do so regularly. For example, on Friday about 20 NATO countries including the U.S. will begin BALTOPS 24, a major naval and air exercise in the Baltic region near Russia.

The officials said they expect the Russian ships will remain in the region through the summer and will likely conduct similar, follow-up exercises in the Caribbean after this one concludes.

The officials said Congress was notified of the upcoming Russian exercises on Wednesday.

BYE BYE HIPPIES WHO BECAME YIPPIES!


Court ruling will allow student housing at UC Berkeley’s People’s Park, a counterculture landmark

Police descend on People's Park as crews cut down trees and people are asked to leave in Berkeley, Calif., on Thursday, Jan. 4, 2024. A California Supreme Court ruling will allow student housing at University of California to be built at Berkeley's historic People's Park.
Jane Tyska - member, ASSOCIATED PRESS

A California Supreme Court ruling will allow the University of California to build new student housing at Berkeley’s historic People’s Park

By OLGA R. RODRIGUEZ - Associated Press

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — People’s Park in Berkeley, which since the Vietnam War has been a site for protests and counterculture movements, can be converted into student housing for the University of California, the state Supreme Court ruled Thursday, capping a yearslong legal fight over the landmark.

The court ruled that a new law enacted in 2023 invalidates the claims by two local organizations that sued the school, saying more students living in downtown Berkeley would add noise pollution to an already dense area.

Because of the new law, which "all parties have effectively acknowledged, this lawsuit poses no obstacle to the development of the People’s Park housing project,” Chief Justice Patricia Guerrero wrote in the unanimous decision.

California is desperate for more housing of all types, including for students at its public universities and colleges. Some students sleep in their cars, crash on friends’ couches, or commute hours to attend class due to limited space in dorms and nearby apartments.

The court noted that Berkeley provides housing to the lowest percentage of students compared to other schools in the UC system. During the 2023-2024 academic year, UC Berkeley housed 9,905 students, about 22% of the university’s 45,699 enrolled students, UC Berkeley spokesperson Kyle Gibson said in an email.

UC Berkeley plans to build a $312 million housing complex for about 1,100 of its students at the nearly 3-acre (1.2-hectare) People’s Park, which it owns. Protests have at times escalated into skirmishes between police and activists.

In 2022, activists broke through an 8-foot (2-meter) chain fence erected around the park as crews began clearing trees to make room for the housing project. In January, police officers in riot gear removed activists from the park as crews began walling off the site with double-stacked shipping containers.

The park was founded in 1969 as part of the era’s free speech and Civil Rights Movement and for decades served as a gathering space for free meals, community gardening and art projects, and was used by homeless people. It turned into both a symbol of resistance and mayhem during a deadly confrontation that year known as “Bloody Thursday,” emboldening then-California Gov. Ronald Reagan to send in 3,000 National Guardsmen for a two-week occupation that evoked images of war in a city that was clamoring for peace in Vietnam.

The university is relieved by the court's decision and it will turn its attention to resuming construction at the site, Gibson said.

“Our students and unhoused people desperately need the housing components of the project, and the entire community will benefit from the fact that more than 60% of the 2.8-acre site will be revitalized as open park space,” Gibson said in a statement.

Make UC a Good Neighbor and The People’s Park Historic District Advocacy Group filed a lawsuit against the project, saying that the university system should have considered increased noise under the California Environmental Quality Act, or CEQA. They also said there are more appropriate places the university could build, and the park is a rare green space in one of Berkeley’s densest neighborhoods.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom vowed to work with legislators to amend the law after a state appeals court last year ruled against the University of California, saying that it failed to assess the impact of potential noise “from loud student parties” on residential neighborhoods.

In September, Newsom signed a law that amended CEQA to clarify that housing projects do not need to study the noise generated by prospective future residents.

Harvey Smith, president of the People’s Park Historic District Advocacy Group and one of the plaintiffs, said the decision was disappointing but not surprising.

“It's disappointing because community groups play by the rules and when we win what UC does is go to the Legislature to change the rules,” Smith said.

“Community groups don't have the deep pockets or powerful connections UC does,” he added.



 Stacked shipping containers begin to surround People's Park in Berkeley, Calif. on Thursday, Jan. 4, 2024. A California Supreme Court ruling will allow student housing at University of California to be built at Berkeley's historic People's Park.



Shipping containers are placed around People's Park in Berkeley, Calif., Thursday, Jan. 4, 2024. A California Supreme Court ruling will allow student housing at University of California to be built at Berkeley's historic People's Park.
Terry Chea - staff, ASSOCIATED PRESS



A crew removes debris from People's Park in Berkeley, Calif., Thursday, Jan. 4, 2024. A California Supreme Court ruling will allow student housing at University of California to be built at Berkeley's historic People's Park.
Terry Chea - staff, ASSOCIATED PRESS



 A fallen tree sits by a newly-erected barricade at People's Park in Berkeley, Calif., on Aug. 16, 2022. A California Supreme Court ruling will allow student housing at University of California to be built at Berkeley's historic People's Park.
Eric Risberg - staff, ASSOCIATED PRESS

 A protester uses bolt cutters to take down part of the fence that the University of California, Berkeley, erected around historic People's Park, Aug. 3, 2022, so a construction crew could begin work on a long-planned student housing project in Berkeley, Calif. A California Supreme Court ruling will allow student housing at University of California to be built at Berkeley's historic People's Park.
Michael Liedtke - staff, ASSOCIATED PRESS



 Crews work to remove debris from People's Park in Berkeley, Calif. on Thursday, Jan. 4, 2024. A California Supreme Court ruling will allow student housing at University of California to be built at Berkeley's historic People's Park.



 A cyclist rides past People's Park in Berkeley, Calif., on March 29, 2022. Many of the trees in the park were toppled on Aug. 3, 2022, during an attempt to start a construction project. A California Supreme Court ruling will allow student housing at University of California to be built at Berkeley's historic People's Park.
Eric Risberg - staff, ASSOCIATED PRESS



Signs are posted on the corner of Telegraph Avenue and Haste Street as people read the California Supreme Court ruling on the People's Park housing plan in Berkeley, Calif. on Thursday, June 6, 2024. A California Supreme Court ruling will allow student housing at University of California to be built at Berkeley's historic People's Park.



Lisa Teague speaks to a group of people after reading the California Supreme Court ruling on People's Park housing plan in Berkeley, Calif. on Thursday, June 6, 2024. A California Supreme Court ruling will allow student housing at University of California to be built at Berkeley's historic People's Park.



Storage containers surround the perimeter of People's Park in Berkeley, Calif. on Thursday, June 6, 2024. A California Supreme Court ruling will allow student housing at University of California to be built at Berkeley's historic People's Park.



Storage containers surround the perimeter of People's Park in Berkeley, Calif. on Thursday, June 6, 2024. A California Supreme Court ruling will allow student housing at University of California to be built at Berkeley's historic People's Park.

Enrique Marisol, 23, stands near a sign in support of People's Park at the corner of Telegraph Avenue and Haste Street during a reading of the California Supreme Court ruling on the People's Park housing plan in Berkeley, Calif. on Thursday, June 6, 2024.

Brontë Wittpenn - member image share, ASSOCIATED PRESS

KRIMINAL KAPITALI$M

German Luxury Car Dealers Raided Over Alleged Russian Sanctions Violations

Mercedes-Benz building (file photo)

 June 06, 2024

• By dpa

German customs investigators and the public prosecutor's office took action on June 6 against the suspected illegal export of luxury cars to Russia. The customs investigation office in the western city of Essen and the public prosecutor's office in Bochum announced that they suspected that managers of a car dealership in Bochum sold a large number of luxury vehicles worth over 5 million euros ($5.44 million) to Russia, violating the existing export embargo. Authorities suspect the dealers pretended that the cars had been legally exported to other countries, when in reality they were sent to Russia. Investigators searched and seized evidence from two properties.

European Parliament elections: Not quite a 'Trumpian moment'

Populists on the right are poised to win big this week but don't expect perfect parallels to what is happening here or a shift in Ukraine war support

ANALYSIS | EUROPE

ELDAR MAMEDOV
JUN 06, 2024

With the European Parliament elections already in full swing in some of the European Union’s 27 member states, the consensus among EU watchers is that the populist right is poised to make sweeping gains in the pan-European legislature. Some alarmed mainstream commenters warn of a “Trumpian moment” in Europe.

It is true that parties broadly fitting in the populist right/national-conservative camp have been going from strength to strength in the EU. Today, they are either leading, are part of ruling coalitions, or offer crucial parliamentary backing in Italy, Sweden, Finland, Hungary, Croatia, and the Czech Republic, with the Netherlands soon to join the club following the electoral victory of Geert Wilders’s party.

If the populist right wins in Austria later this year, as the polls predict, and manages to form a government, then roughly one third of EU countries will be governed by right-wing populists.

For a full picture, in France, the National Rally party is polling around 30% for the European Parliament, far ahead of the liberal President Emmanuel Macron’s party, which is stuck at just 15%. And in Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is polling second to the center-right Christian-Democratic Union, ahead of all three ruling coalition parties — center-left social-democrats, Greens, and center-right liberals. In Poland, the Law and Order party, though no longer in government, is still a potent force. Since the European elections are, in effect, a sum of 27 national elections, it is entirely expectable that they will mirror these trends and see a further rise of the populist right.

Yet hyperbolic comparisons with the Trumpian phenomenon obscure far more than they enlighten. Two reasons stand out.

First, even the most optimistic (or alarming, according to one’s perspective) projections do not predict that any of the existing populist right groups in the European Parliament will earn a plurality of the seats in the new assembly. There are currently two such groups: European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID). The polls predict that the more successful of them – ECR – could garner around 86 seats in a 720-member strong assembly (that is an increase from the current 66 seats).

ID is expected to win 67 seats (up from the current 49), and that excludes the German AfD, which could bring another 20 but was recently expelled from the ID over its lead member’s pro-Nazi comments. Still, both ECR and ID are very far from challenging the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) which is widely expected to win the elections with 172 MEPs, as well as center-left Socialists&Democrats (S&D), which is slated to get around 137 seats.

Second, the comparisons with Trump do not stand because there is no European equivalent of the Republican Party, and the right populist parties come in many shades and forms. The closest thing the EU has to the Republican party on the pan-European level is the EPP, itself a big tent that uneasily holds together centrist German and Benelux Christian-democrats, French Gaullists, Spanish post-Francoists, Nordic market liberals, and eastern European and Balkan ethnic nationalists. Since a Trump-style takeover of the EPP is impossible, for the populist right to fundamentally reshape European politics, it needs to establish a firm alliance with the EPP while forging its own internal cohesion.

That is a tall order. While all parties on the populist right, and increasingly many within the EPP, share restrictive stances on immigration (particularly from Muslim countries), climate action skepticism, and social conservatism of varying degrees, there is a crucial divide on the war in Ukraine. All the EPP parties are solidly pro-Ukraine. So are the leading forces in the ECR — Italian Prime-Minister Giorgia Meloni and the Polish Law and Order.

ID, by contrast, offers a more mixed picture: While the Italian Lega, Meloni’s coalition partner, generally toes the line on Ukraine, other heavy hitters, such as the French Marine Le Pen, and, before its expulsion, the German AfD, have been seen as far more reluctant to back Kyiv. Add to that one of Europe’s chief Ukraine skeptics, the Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban and his Fidesz party, currently without an affiliation in the European Parliament.

Leaders like Orban and Le Pen consistently call for a consolidation of the populist right into a single powerful bloc and court the ECR’s Meloni and the Poles to that end, but Ukraine remains a powerful deal-breaker. To find a way around it, however, it is the Ukraine skeptics who will more likely have to come around to adopt the mainstream EU line.

The Dutch Wilders, whose party sits with Le Pen’s ID in the European Parliament, used to be a staunch opponent of military aid to Ukraine, but as soon as he got a shot to form a government in the Netherlands, he shed his previous misgivings and pledged both support for Ukraine and increased defense spending to reach NATO’s 2% of GDP target.

Le Pen, in what one observer called the “process of Melonisation,” is similarly working to overcome her pro-Kremlin image and now offers full-throated support for Ukraine. Orban, of course, remains something of an outlier, but despite punching above his weight, he represents a relatively small Central European country and is dependent on EU cash handouts.

Herein lies another key difference with the “Trumpian moment”: Whereas in the U.S. the rise of the populist right has led to an emergence of a strong pro-foreign policy restraint camp within the Republican party, the European populist right is more likely to follow the opposite path by accepting the mainstream orthodoxies on foreign policy as a ticket to acceptance and power.

That may yet prove to be an Achilles heel for the populist right. While Europe has shown consistent solidarity with Ukraine and resilience in the sanctions war with Russia, there are signs of growing war fatigue. This hasn’t translated into demands to abandon Ukraine and appease Russia, but rather an expectation of some sort of a negotiated settlement to the war. According to the European Council on Foreign Relations’ EU-wide poll, 41% of Europeans hold the view that the EU should push Ukraine towards negotiating a peace deal with Russia, while 31% say the EU should support Ukraine in taking back the territories occupied by Russia.

By failing to articulate the preferences of that 41%, the populist right is leaving the field wide open for competitors from its own camp, as well as forces on the far left. The latter, according to the polls, may not reach even 40 MEPs and won’t win any votes in the European Parliament on an anti-war platform, but they could use their presence in the assembly strategically to channel the voice of those Europeans who do not feel represented by the current mainstream on questions of war and peace.

Eldar Mamedov  is a Brussels-based foreign policy expert

The views expressed by authors on Responsible Statecraft do not necessarily reflect those of the Quincy Institute or its associates.

Ramaphosa’s Administration and the Electricity Challenges in South Africa

STATE CAPITALISM AND ELECTRICITY = SOCIALISM

V.I. LENIN

BY KESTER KENN KLOMEGAH
JUNE 6, 2024

In this insightful interview, Dr Kelvin Kemm, a nuclear physicist and former chairman of the South African Nuclear Energy Corporation (NECSA), and current Chairman of Stratek Global, a nuclear project management company based in Pretoria, South Africa, thoroughly discusses the dynamics of energy situation, its impact on the economy and the ultimate pathway forward in South Africa. Here are the interview excerpts:

How would you describe the level of power shortage and its impact on the economy currently in South Africa?

Dr Kelvin Kemm: South Africa has experienced a period of power shortage which has been irritating to the average citizen, but also highly damaging to the economy. Contrary to a popular belief around the world, there have not been random power failures all over the place but instead there has been a pre-programmed system of power being intentionally turned off in areas, on a rotation basis, according to a pre-determined roster.

If all generating units are running, then there is no shortage of power. But there is no longer a reserve margin left in the country, due to a failure to build new adequate baseload electricity generating units. That is where the problem lies. This is largely due to the politics of not building further coal-fired power stations to satisfy international demands. South Africa’s current problem lies with the fact that there is no longer a reserve margin on hand to absorb scheduled maintenance and random breakdowns. When a number of these coincide then the country goes into what is known locally as the Load Shedding Schedule. Depending on the severity of the shortage, the schedule goes up in stages, meaning that the scheduled switch-off periods become longer, the shortest being one hour.

Certain critical areas are exempt. But for other areas, it has been economically damaging. All sorts of industrial operations are curtailed or stopped for an hour or two at a time. Particularly hard hit have been small businesses such as restaurants, hairdressers, and such luck who have not had the money to install their own back-up power supplies.

However, on the positive side, there has now been no load shedding for two months, since a dedicated high-intensity maintenance and operations programme was embarked upon. We just hope that load shedding is now a thing of the past.

What do you see as the main problems in the power industry? Besides the country’s cabinet, has parliament also involved in discussing this?

KK: In my opinion, a major problem concerning the power problem is that far too many people think that they know what they are talking about but don’t. Since the politics of climate change intruded into society every alternate person is a self-proclaimed energy expert, but can’t tell the difference between Megawatts and Megawatt-hours.

This is true of society at large, but at times is even worse with parliamentarians worldwide, who all want to ‘save the planet’ to look good to their constituents. Some of the worst in the world are European Union politicians.

The waters are muddied even further by the extreme greens who are so intent on ‘saving future generations’ that they don’t care very much about the current generations, particularly those in Africa. It is time that this Sandal Brigade pulled their socks up.

The intrusion of wind and solar power, supposedly to Save the Planet, or save Mankind, depending on which camp the ‘saviour’ is in, has generally had a significant detrimental effect.

This has proven to be a worldwide phenomenon. But now the chickens are coming home to roost, well, in many cases, to roast, as the resulting economic damage becomes evident in many countries. Some countries are visibly sabotaging themselves, as they head towards their Armageddon. South Africa must try to not be further drawn into this mad whirlpool. Wind and solar can effectively fill certain functions in electricity provision, but providing baseload power for the engine of an economy is not one of them.

Is the energy situation better under the administration of Cyril Ramaphosa or Jacob Zuma? Can you please discuss the two periods how the power industry has been managed?

KK: Under former President Jacob Zuma, the power crisis in South Africa steadily worsened, as the authorities tried to make up their minds on which direction to follow. At the same time, they were heavily influenced by the foreign salesmen of wind and solar systems. Certain European countries had their own GDP growth in mind, as they instructed African countries to ‘save the planet’ by buying their export products.

Much financial arm-twisting has taken place, in the forms of supposedly soft loans and other inducements to ‘save mankind from the sins of the Industrial Revolution and modern day. Industrialists’.

Meanwhile, the building of additional real baseload generating capacity did not take place. One very positive move under President Zuma was that he pushed for more nuclear power. However, this initiative was vehemently opposed by anti-nuclear green groups who are significantly funded by the countries exporting their own ‘green solutions’.

A Zuma-era project to build an additional 9600 MW of nuclear power was torpedoed by the anti-nuclear greens. Had they not stopped the nuclear build, we probably would never have had the load shedding.

Then President Cyril Ramaphosa deposed President Jacob Zuma. A hallmark of the tenure of President Ramaphosa has been dithering and uncertainty. The country hoped for a show of strong leadership under President Ramaphosa, but that did not materialise.

President Ramaphosa finally replaced a really weak and ineffectual Minister of Energy with the current minister, Gwede Mantashe, who promptly brought some insight to the portfolio, and immediately embarked on a new nuclear-build initiative to introduce an additional 2500 MW of nuclear. The new Minister has also doggedly stuck with his philosophy of maintaining the stance that South Africa needs to continue with coal power, and should not be bullied by the European Union and certain US interests. That is the correct stance, and the Minister needs some praise and support. He has been a breath of fresh air, in comparison to his ineffectual predecessor.

What are your expert views about “energy mix” for instance – a combination of wind, solar, hydro and nuclear power? Why nuclear is still bugged down with problems in the country?

KK: An energy mix should be implemented such that it is effective from an engineering perspective, and is also economically genuinely productive. It should not be presented as a political objective merely to keep the sandal brigade and foreign politicians happy. Sadly, in South Africa, an energy mix has largely been pursued for the wrong reasons.

South Africa needs coal, and will need it for decades to come. We cannot let children of the current generation die or miss out on modern development, to ‘save the planet’, to make EU politicians look good. Thankfully, South Africa is now advancing the nuclear agenda not only by announcing the planned building of a new large nuclear power station, but also by supporting the introduction of Small Modular Reactors.

With South Africa’s abundant sunshine, there certainly is a place for solar power. But dedicated special applications should be found which fit the economic and engineering profile of the Sun’s 24-hour path across the sky. Similarly with wind power, it is ideal for pumping water, in an area that has adequate wind, and where the highly intermittent nature of the wind’s, strength does not matter.

If, for example, South Africa decides to strengthen nuclear as additional remedy, how about nuclear safety regulations and training of staff for this?

KK: South Africa is one of the oldest nuclear countries in the world, predating all of Europe. South Africa’s nuclear power station Koeberg arrived at its 40th birthday in 2024. The 60th birthday of the Safari 1 nuclear reactor near Pretoria is 2025. South Africa is highly skilled in all aspects of nuclear power operation and training, at all levels. The country is in a position to offer nuclear training and support to all African countries and to many others around the world.

But we need to expand the Number of people being trained, because nuclear power is the future, and much more nuclear than the current 2500 MW nuclear expansion is required.

Projects like the advancement of the South African-developed HTMR-100 Small Modular Reactor should be pursued with vigour. The potential for the worldwide export of this advanced Generation IV Helium-cooled system is vast. In addition, South Africa is a world leader in the design and fabrication of the advanced TRISO fuel required for many SMR systems. South Africans have also designed and developed TRISO fuel variants for United States companies. The potential financial earnings are vast.

A number of countries have shown interest in investing in the unique South African SMR development, with a number of international visitors having visited South Africa to see for themselves. Various advanced discussions are taking place.

And financing nuclear energy?

KK: Nuclear power is not expensive. In fact, South Africa’s cheapest electricity is the nuclear electricity from Koeberg. But of course, worldwide, the Green Sandal Brigade have preached that nuclear is expensive, in an attempt to deter governments from advancing nuclear power.

Thankfully, many world leaders are now seeing the light of reason and from about 2022 there has been a steady visible movement towards nuclear power across the globe. This movement is accelerating. This is particularly true of African countries who more and more are realising that Small Modular Reactors are their path to prosperity, and are shaking off the European strangling grip of ‘sunbeams and breezes shall save you’.

African leaders are realising that they have to pursue African Solutions for Africa, using homegrown skills and competence.

Nuclear power is not expensive when you do your calculations correctly. That means taking the whole life cycle into account in calculating the true cost of electricity per kWh to the consumer. Just like buying a car, you calculate the amortisation and running cost per month over its life cycle. Why can’t intelligent citizens realise that it is the same for a nuclear reactor? It is also the same for wind and solar power which are invariably not presented to the public with their true costs. Their true costs are much higher than generally claimed.

When a sensible business case is presented then the financing of nuclear is not a problem. Many countries and financial institutions will happily finance a sensible financial model, as long as they can see past the placard-waving, slogan-shouting Sandal Brigade. Then they see the financial realities and benefits of nuclear power, plus the financial gains that they themselves can make from financing major nuclear projects.

Do you see any possible way out of the power shortage in the country? Do you think foreign players (countries) are showing interest and could help South Africa?

KK: To my mind, the way forward for South Africa is bright. We appear to be coming out of the load shedding by bringing back the serious engineering, and relegating much of the political interference, and bumbling political appointees, to the red tape bin.

We are also now on the path to additional nuclear power. The progress along this path is particularly helped by the world waking up to the reality that nuclear power is essential, for the entire planet. Bearing in mind that nuclear operations emit no noxious gases or liquids whatsoever, or even carbon dioxide, it is the perfect green solution. As well as being the sensible engineering and economic solution.

World electricity consumption doubled over the last 25 years. It will double again within the next 25 years. In fact, probably even faster because entities like big data centres, and also the advancing technology worldwide, are demanding electricity like a pack of hyenas at a fresh kill.

Kester Kenn Klomegah

MD Africa Editor Kester Kenn Klomegah is an independent researcher and writer on African affairs in the EurAsian region and former Soviet republics. He wrote previously for African Press Agency, African Executive and Inter Press Service. Earlier, he had worked for The Moscow Times, a reputable English newspaper. Klomegah taught part-time at the Moscow Institute of Modern Journalism. He studied international journalism and mass communication, and later spent a year at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. He co-authored a book “AIDS/HIV and Men: Taking Risk or Taking Responsibility” published by the London-based Panos Institute. In 2004 and again in 2009, he won the Golden Word Prize for a series of analytical articles on Russia's economic cooperation with African countries.

Scientists have traced the origin of the modern horse to a lineage that emerged 4,200 years ago



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A herder sits with his horse on an open plain in Inner Mongolia, China, July 2019. Scientists analyzed ancient horse genomes to calculate dates for the domestication of the modern horse -- 4,200 years ago, according to new research published Thursday, June 6, 2024, in the journal Nature. (Ludovic Orlando/Centre for Anthropobiology and Genomics of Toulouse, CAGT via AP)Read More


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A herder tracks a horse on an open plain in Inner Mongolia, China, July 2019. Scientists analyzed ancient horse genomes to calculate dates for the domestication of the modern horse -- 4,200 years ago, according to new research published Thursday, June 6, 2024, in the journal Nature. (Ludovic Orlando/Centre for Anthropobiology and Genomics of Toulouse, CAGT via AP)


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Horse herder catching one of his horses with a lasso on the Khomiin Tal plaeau, Mongolia, May 2014. Scientists analyzed ancient horse genomes to calculate dates for the domestication of the modern horse -- 4,200 years ago, according to new research published Thursday, June 6, 2024, in the journal Nature. (Ludovic Orlando/Centre for Anthropobiology and Genomics of Toulouse, CAGT via AP)


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Herders guide horses on an open plain in Inner Mongolia, China, July 2019. Scientists analyzed ancient horse genomes to calculate dates for the domestication of the modern horse -- 4,200 years ago, according to new research published Thursday, June 6, 2024, in the journal Nature. (Ludovic Orlando/Centre for Anthropobiology and Genomics of Toulouse, CAGT via AP)


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Herders guide horses on an open plain in Inner Mongolia, China, July 2019. Scientists analyzed ancient horse genomes to calculate dates for the domestication of the modern horse -- 4,200 years ago, according to new research published Thursday, June 6, 2024, in the journal Nature. (Ludovic Orlando/Centre for Anthropobiology and Genomics of Toulouse, CAGT via AP)


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Horse and mule trains carrying heavy loads across the Peruvian Andes, in the Salkantay mountains region, August 2024. Scientists analyzed ancient horse genomes to calculate dates for the domestication of the modern horse -- 4,200 years ago, according to new research published Thursday, June 6, 2024, in the journal Nature. (Ludovic Orlando/Centre for Anthropobiology and Genomics of Toulouse, CAGT via AP)

BY CHRISTINA LARSON
 June 6, 2024


WASHINGTON (AP) — The horse transformed human history – and now scientists have a clearer idea of when humans began to transform the horse.

Around 4,200 years ago, one particular lineage of horse quickly became dominant across Eurasia, suggesting that’s when humans started to spread domesticated horses around the world, according to research published Thursday in the journal Nature.

There was something special about this horse: It had a genetic mutation that changed the shape of its back, likely making it easier to ride.

“In the past, you had many different lineages of horses,” said Pablo Librado, an evolutionary biologist at the Spanish National Research Council in Barcelona and co-author of the new study. That genetic diversity was evident in ancient DNA samples the researchers analyzed from archaeological sites across Eurasia dating back to 50,000 years ago.

But their analysis of 475 ancient horse genomes showed a notable change around 4,200 years ago.

That’s when a specific lineage that first arose in what’s known as the Pontic-Caspian Steppe, a plains region that stretches from what is now northeastern Bulgaria across Ukraine and through southern Russia, began to pop up all across Eurasia and quickly replaced other lineages. Within three hundred years, the horses in Spain were similar to those in Russia.



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“We saw this genetic type spreading almost everywhere in Eurasia — clearly this horse type that was local became global very fast,” said co-author Ludovic Orlando, a molecular archaeologist at the Centre for Anthropobiology and Genomics of Toulouse in France.

The researchers believe that this change was because a Bronze Age people called the Sintashta had domesticated their local horse and begun to use these animals to help them dramatically expand their territory.

Domesticating wild horses on the plains of Eurasia was a process, not a single event, scientists say.

Archaeologists have previously found evidence of people consuming horse milk in dental remains dating to around 5,500 years ago, and the earliest evidence of horse ridership dates to around 5,000 years ago. But it was the Sintashta who spread the particular horses they had domesticated across Eurasia, the new study suggests.

Researchers believe the very earliest horse ancestors arose in North America, then sauntered across the Bering Strait into Asia around a million years ago. They flourished in Asia, but went extinct in the Americas.

People had domesticated other animals several thousand years before horses — including dogs, pigs, cattle, goats and sheep. But the new research shows that the shrinking genetic diversity associated with domestication happened much faster in horses.

“Humans changed the horse genome stunningly quickly, perhaps because we already had experience dealing with animals,” said Laurent Frantz, who studies the genetics of ancient creatures at the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich and was not involved in the study.

“It shows the special place of horses in human societies.”

—

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

All Dams Map of the Mekong Basin

Mainstream and Tributaries

A map detailing the current status of all dams completed and under construction on the Mekong River’s mainstream and tributaries

By Brian Eyler • Regan Kwan
STIMSON.ORG
May 7, 2024





This map shows the current status of all dams completed and under construction on the Mekong River’s mainstream and tributaries, representing a “definite future” for dams in the Mekong Basin. Nearly every tributary in every country of the Mekong is now blocked by a dam, posing a significant reduction in fish migration capabilities and downstream sediment distribution. Seasonal storage dams also pose a significant threat to the annual floodpulse which drives the Mekong fishery and robust agricultural production. This map will be updated as new dams begin construction or go online and its underlying dataset can be accessed below.

Download
Mekong All Dams Map

Currently, 745 dams are complete or under construction on the mainstream and tributaries of the Mekong Basin rendering the once connected, natural river system into a highly engineered watershed utilized for hydropower production, irrigation, urban water supply, and flood control. The rapid development of these dams over the last three decades has occurred in a mostly uncoordinated manner among the riparian countries of China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam and this is resulting in significant alterations to the Mekong’s natural floodpulse, the livelihoods of tens of millions of people who rely on the river, and the world’s largest freshwater fishery.

Dam data on this map was collected using satellite imagery or existing sources. Sources include project stakeholders, publications from national ministries, national power development plans, SERVIR-Mekong, the CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land and Ecosystems- Greater Mekong, World Bank, and the Mekong Region Futures Institute. A dataset inclusive of all dam sites identified on this map is accessible for download.

We encourage you to use this map and underlying data for your own research, presentations, or publications with proper attribution to the Stimson Center.

This map will be updated quarterly and with the completion or construction of major dams. To go deeper into this database, access the reservoirs database on the Mekong Infrastructure Tracker Dashboard. To learn more about the impacts of the largest dams in the Mekong, follow the Mekong Dam Monitor’s Facebook page or explore the Mekong Dam Monitor online platform. See more Stimson research about the impacts of Mekong dams on the Mekong Dam Monitor project page.

It’s High Time to Get Serious About Organized Crime on the High Seas

A call for global coordination to end illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing on the high seas

By Monica P. Medina

STIMSON,ORG
June 6, 2024




As we celebrate global ocean conservation milestones on World Ocean Day this year, we are ever mindful of the work left to do. A concerted global effort to end IUU fishing is needed – with leadership and collaboration from fishing nations, non-governmental partners, and multilateral institution

Thanks to modern technology and artificial intelligence, our vast planet – 70 percent of which is ocean – is getting smaller by the minute. Our ability to monitor human impacts on the ocean, and to better protect and manage its vast resources, has grown exponentially in the past decade. And yet, we don’t apply that capacity. Even as our 21st-century capabilities can give us the vital information we need to do this work, our legal and political tools are badly out of date. “Areas beyond national jurisdiction” remain a place where outlaws and organized criminal networks can thrive.

The high seas are one of the most dangerous places on Earth – and there is no law or court that can mete out justice if a stateless fishing vessel is involved in horrible crimes, including murder. Ian Urbina, a renowned journalist, has been telling this story for years. His book and related project, entitled Outlaw Ocean, has documented the vast amount of criminal activity that happens at sea with no place for victims or their families to turn for accountability. As Ian put it, the high seas are “too big to police, and under no clear international authority, these immense regions of treacherous water play host to rampant criminality and exploitation.”

One of the most pervasive types of criminal activity is illegal fishing, including the sometimes inhumane treatment of crews on scofflaw fishing vessels. It is estimated that one in five fish worldwide is caught through IUU fishing, valued at least $36 billion. This is a conservative estimate; in today’s marketplace, these costs may be much higher. Illegal fishing has been called by security experts a “global scourge” and one of the biggest threats to the sustainability of the ocean. It is devastating to ocean ecosystems, it depletes global fishing stocks putting the world’s food security at risk, and it undermines many fragile coastal economies and communities all over the world.

Make no mistake, industrial fishing vessels that work the distant waters outside of national jurisdictions, because of the lack of transparency in the sector and weak legal and enforcement environment, are the mode of convenience for many other crimes – including human trafficking, forced labor, smuggling of illegal narcotics and guns, and piracy. The recent case of the Adriana, a rusty fishing trawler that sank last June off the coast of Greece, killing hundreds of migrants on board, is illustrative. National coast guards allegedly just watched the struggling vessel – which had engine trouble and no food or water – but claimed they were powerless to act because the ship was in international waters. And late last month a Greek court dismissed the legal case against the vessel’s crew for the same reason – the ship’s location in an area beyond the jurisdiction of its national courts.

There are bright spots. Artificial intelligence and satellite and other remote sensing technologies abound, which can provide information about all the potential illegal activity associated with industrial fishing vessels in real-time. And they are beginning to be used at scale. President Biden put IUU fishing on the global security radar of the U.S. by issuing a National Security Memorandum orchestrating a whole-of-government approach to tackling IUU fishing. The United States and some other countries have stepped up their activities to improve maritime domain awareness and encourage sharing more information to help those countries who are losing the most to illegal fishing, such as the Pacific Islands nations. The U.S. Coast Guard is working closely with an international non-profit organization called Global Fishing Watch, to try to advance greater ocean governance through transparency. And organizations like the Stimson Center are supporting these efforts by acting as the secretariat for the IUU Fishing Action Alliance, a group of countries (including the United States) and organizations who have pledged to work together to combat IUU fishing.

The scope and scale of illegal fishing is becoming clearer and clearer. The ocean is in serious trouble – more than 30 percent of global fish stocks are overfished, there are countless illegal fishing vessels, with forced labor on more than we know, not to mention human trafficking, drug smuggling, gunrunning, and piracy. In addition to the food, economic, and environmental security threats to developing coastal nations, the opacity of the global seafood supply chain means that U.S. consumers are too often in the dark about where the fish they’re purchasing is caught, who owns the fishing vessels, and what labor abuses on vessels and in processing plants could be occurring.

And yet, there is still no concerted global effort to bring justice to bear. We are watching the ocean being plundered, with many innocent people paying the price. We still have not come together in a concerted way to make a lasting change. It’s not enough to raise general awareness of these crimes. Indeed, the fact that we know it is happening makes our inaction even more tragic. We must redouble our efforts now. We have the tools. We have the capacity to put a serious dent in high crime happening on fishing vessels in the areas beyond national jurisdiction. What we need now is coordinated action. With serious global cooperation and leadership – including by the most prolific fishing nations of the world such as the U.S., Europe, and China, and multilateral organizations like the Food and Agriculture Organization – we can bring law and order to the high seas.