It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Thursday, May 20, 2021
USA
Best practices to prevent the federal government from blowing its technology budget
INSTITUTE FOR OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND THE MANAGEMENT SCIENCES
INFORMS Journal Manufacturing & Service Operations Management Study Key Takeaways:
The study looked at archival data on 240 U.S. federal government technology programs across 24 federal agencies.
Researchers found that the practice of moving baseline targets is a key driver in continually increasing budgets for federal government technology programs.
The componentization of a program into smaller work units and increasing the level of competency in program management can dampen this increase, resulting in significant cost savings.
CATONSVILLE, MD, May 11, 2021 - With the U.S. federal government investing billions of taxpayer dollars in executing technology programs, wouldn't you like to know where this money is going? A new study has identified ways to reduce federal spending in the execution of these taxpayer-funded technology programs.
To monitor the execution of these programs, the federal government establishes a baseline, which is an aggregate plan consisting of the program's planned budget, schedule and scope. The problem is that federal technology programs are re-baselined several times, which means if the baseline is changed, it can appear as though a program is not over budget when in fact it is over the original planned budget.
New research in the INFORMS journal Manufacturing & Service Operations Management investigates the drivers of these baseline changes and identifies mechanisms to reduce these changes, thereby helping improve utilization of taxpayer contributions associated with such programs.
"Taxing the Taxpayers: An Empirical Investigation of the Drivers of Baseline Changes in U.S. Federal Government Technology Programs," written by Dwaipayan Roy, Anant Mishra and Kingshuk Sinha, all of the University of Minnesota, looks at archival data on 240 U.S. federal government technology programs across 24 federal agencies.
"We find significant savings can occur by reducing baseline changes in programs of greater scope if federal agencies and contractor firms invest greater efforts in componentizing a program into smaller work units and identifying managers with high levels of technical and practical knowledge in 'program management' - a competency critical for managing multiple interrelated projects," said Roy, professor in the Carlson School of Management.
"Baseline changes can serve as early warning signals for federal agencies and contractor firms to identify programs that may be facing execution challenges and enable them to make mid-course corrections," continued Roy.
Another key finding is that federal technology programs using the agile methodology experienced more baseline changes.
"Scope creep can be higher in such programs, as these programs can often lack sufficient upfront effort in developing the initial baseline and depend too much on making adaptations during execution. The upfront effort is actually critical for better managing adaptations and avoiding the time-consuming approval process needed for revising a baseline," added Roy.
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About INFORMS and Manufacturing & Service Operations Management
INFORMS is the leading international association for operations research and analytics professionals. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, one of 17 journals published by INFORMS, is a premier academic journal that covers the production and operations management of goods and services including technology management, productivity and quality management, product development, cross-functional coordination and practice-based research. More information is available at http://www.informs.org or @informs.
NSU researcher part of team to sequence the genome of the leopard
This genetic analysis revises current interpretation of their natural history, migrations and future vulnerability
Different African populations were genetically interrelated suggesting abundant gene flow across Africa such that all African population should be considered together as single subspecies.
There appeared a striking genomic distance between leopards living in Asia vs. leopards in Africa.
Asian leopards are more genetically separated from African leopards than brown bear species are from polar bear species, the researchers found.
The two leopard groups actually diverged around the same time as Neanderthals split apart from modern humans.
The genetic differences between African and Asian leopards have been maintained since 500,000 to 600,000 years ago. Asian leopards retain markedly less overall genetic variation than is seen in African leopards.
FORT LAUDERDALE/DAVIE, Fla. - They are some of the most beautiful, and elusive, animals on the plant. Leopards.
These majestic animals are the only great cat species (Genus Panthera) to roam about both Africa and Asia today. Leopards are considered as highly vulnerable, classified by the Convention on International Trade of Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Because of their elusive nature, and their adaptation to multiple landscapes (rain forest, savannah, deserts and mountain sides) an accurate estimation of their global census has not been possible.
In a major scientific step to reconstruct the evolutionary history plus their conservation status, the whole genome DNA sequence of 23 individual leopards sampled from eight geographically separated subspecies locales were interpreted using the latest technologies of population ecology and molecular evolution. Ancient DNA sequences for 18 archival specimens along with 5 living leopards were combined to refine our understanding of the leopard's movements, population reductions, divergence and isolation, and over the past half million years.
An international team involving scientists from Nova Southeastern University (NSU), Nottingham Trent University, the University of Cambridge, University of Leicester in U.K. and the University of Potsdam in Germany carried out genetic analysis of modern and historical specimens stored in natural history museums as part of the study.
"This study changes everything about genetic contributions to conservation management of the world's leopards, particularly the highly threatened Amur leopard," said Stephen J. O'Brien, Ph.D., a professor and research scientist in NSU's Halmos College of Arts and Sciences, who is a collaborating author and also led the genetic analyses the Florida panther restoration two decades ago.
O'Brien, is also the Chief Scientific Officer at the Theodosius Dobzhansky Center for Genome Bioinformatics, St. Petersburg State University, Russia, and is a member of the National Academy of Sciences.
Genetic distinctiveness of nine previously suggested subspecies was re-affirmed with increased precision. Different African populations were genetically interrelated suggesting abundant gene flow across Africa such that all African populations should be considered together as a single subspecies. By contrast Asian leopard populations were geographically distinct along ten prior recognized subspecies boundaries.
There appeared a striking genomic distance between leopards living in Asia vs. leopards in Africa. Asian leopards are more genetically separated from African leopards than brown bear species are from polar bear species, the researchers found. The two leopard groups actually diverged around the same time as Neanderthals split apart from modern humans. The genetic differences between African and Asian leopards have been maintained since 500,000 to 600,000 years ago. Asian leopards retain markedly less overall genetic variation than is seen in African leopards.
"While they both have spots, the African and Asian leopards are quite different when looking at their DNA, said Johanna Paijmans, Ph.D., lead author, Research Fellow at the University of Cambridge and Honorary Fellow at the University of Leicester. "Given their mobility, it is surprising that they have remained so distinct and do not carry more shared genetic material with one another. Our study demonstrates that many more exciting genetic discoveries could be hidden among the shelves of natural history museums around the world."
CAPTION
Photo of a Leopard
CREDIT
Ekaterina Blidchenko
The simplest explanation for both low Asian diversity and this large genetic difference may involve an origin for all leopards in Africa, with a single founding "out of Africa" migration to Asia occurring 500,000 - 600,000 years ago. Evidence of subsequent additional northern migrations were not detected, perhaps because the Asian habitats were protected by behavioural reinforcement, a term used to describe the blocking of immigrants across a narrow migration corridor. For example, a similar pattern had occurred with puma/cougar population migrations to North America from South American isthmus 1-12,000 years ago.
The depletion of genetic diversity observed in Asian leopard subspecies extends to the extreme in the critically endangered Amur leopard ( Panthera pardi orientalis ). Amur leopards comprise a tiny relict subspecies living on the edge of extinction in the Primorsky Krai region of the Russian Far East-RFE, along the North Chinese border. The Amur leopard population has dropped below 60 individuals and is now showing congenital traits that derive from close inbreeding. Conservation organizations in the RFE are proposing a genetic restoration of re-introduction of Amur leopards to Ussurijsky and Lazovsky Nature Reserves in the RFE (similar to what was successful for the Florida Panther restoration 15 years ago to augment the struggling wild population). The new Amur leopard genomic diversity data shall form a baseline for monitor of Amur leopard re-introduction consequences.
"Despite the fact that they the most widely distributed big cats, the evolutionary development and population history of leopards across Africa and Asia has not been studied with genomic tools before now," said Axel Barlow, Ph.D., an expert in palaeogenomics and molecular bioscience in Nottingham Trent University's School of Science and Technology. "Our results have highlighted marked genetic differences between African and Asian leopards, that Asian leopards originated from a single out-of-Africa dispersal event, and that the distinctiveness of leopards on the two continents has been maintained."
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About Nova Southeastern University (NSU): At NSU, students don't just get an education, they get the competitive edge they need for real careers, real contributions and real life. A dynamic, private research university, NSU is providing high-quality educational and research programs at the undergraduate, graduate, and professional degree levels. Established in 1964, the university includes 15 colleges, the 215,000-square-foot Center for Collaborative Research, the private JK-12 grade University School, the world-class NSU Art Museum Fort Lauderdale, and the Alvin Sherman Library, Research and Information Technology Center, one of Florida's largest public libraries. NSU students learn at our campuses in Fort Lauderdale, Fort Myers, Jacksonville, Miami, Miramar, Orlando, Palm Beach, and Tampa, Florida, as well as San Juan, Puerto Rico, and online globally. With nearly 200,000 alumni across the globe, the reach of the NSU community is worldwide. Classified as having "high research activity" by the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching, NSU is one of only 59 universities nationwide to also be awarded Carnegie's Community Engagement Classification, and is also the largest private institution in the United States that meets the U.S. Department of Education's criteria as a Hispanic-serving Institution. Please visit http://www.nova.edu for more information.
About NSU's Halmos College of Arts and Sciences and Guy Harvey Oceanographic Research Center: The college provides high-quality undergraduate and graduate education programs in a broad range of disciplines in the natural sciences, humanities, social sciences, and the arts. Halmos College faculty, researchers, staff, and students pursue studies and investigations in all of these fields and in interdisciplinary projects. Excellence in teaching, research, and community engagement are at the forefront of the College's many initiatives. The Guy Harvey Oceanographic Research Center hosts cutting edge research in the marine sciences focusing on the biology, conservation, and physical aspects of the tropical and subtropical ocean environments. Please visit hcas.nova.edu for more information.
COVID-19 wastewater testing proves effective in new study
Research offers much-needed guidance for early detection in nursing homes, dorms, barracks
IMAGE: UVA HEALTH'S AMY MATHERS, MD, LED A STUDY TO DETERMINE THE STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF WASTEWATER TESTING TO DETECT COVID-19 IN DORMS, NURSING HOMES, PRISONS AND OTHER CONGREGATE SETTINGS.... view more
CREDIT: SANJAY SUCHAK | UVA COMMUNICATIONS
Wastewater testing is an effective way to identify new cases of COVID-19 in nursing homes and other congregate living settings, and it may be particularly useful for preventing outbreaks in college dormitories, a new University of Virginia study finds.
The research, a collaboration of UVA's School of Medicine and School of Engineering, was led by UVA Health's Amy Mathers, MD. It offers some of the first clear guidance on the most effective methods to perform testing to detect COVID-19 in wastewater.
The researchers evaluated and compared sampling and analysis techniques by testing them within buildings with known numbers of positive cases. They were then able to determine wastewater testing's strengths and limitations as a tool for monitoring COVID-19 in a building population. For example, the technique proved better at detecting initial infections than determining the number of occupants infected or how long they had been infected.
One important answer revealed by the research: Wastewater testing can detect even small numbers of asymptomatic cases, something not previously documented.
"This work could be applied to surveillance in buildings where people live in groups, where transmission may be hard to control but the risk of spread could be high," said Mathers, an infectious disease expert in the School of Medicine's Department of Pathology. "Since we can identify new infections with high sensitivity, it provides an early warning signal of when to test everyone in the building to find and isolate the newly infected persons before an outbreak becomes large."
Wastewater Testing for COVID-19
To evaluate the effectiveness of wastewater testing for detecting COVID-19, Mathers collaborated with Lisa Colosi-Peterson, PhD, an associate professor in UVA Engineering's Department of Engineering Systems and Environment, who connected with Mathers through UVA's Center for Engineering in Medicine. They and their colleagues monitored wastewater from two student dormitory complexes for eight weeks. The researchers found that the wastewater testing caught more than 96% of cases.
One limitation of wastewater testing: It could not distinguish between new infections and virus found in stool from those who had recovered and were no longer contagious. That means the wastewater testing detected both active and former cases. "The inability to distinguish recently infected but no longer contagious persons from new contagious infections within a building is an important finding, as it means that wastewater testing would be best for identifying new cases and isolating individuals in groups without recent infections," Mathers said.
UVA's new research also establishes useful protocols for wastewater testing. In a scientific paper outlining their findings, the researchers describe how they collected and tested the samples, noting that refrigerating the samples on ice adequately preserved them for testing that same day. Institutions that plan to send their samples elsewhere for testing, however, may need to take additional steps to preserve the samples for longer, the researchers note. Cleansers and disinfectants used in the facilities could also degrade the viral RNA over time, they caution.
While the researchers are urging further study, they conclude that wastewater testing holds great promise for detecting and controlling COVID-19 in places where people live in close quarters. "Passive pooled surveillance of wastewater is now serving as an early warning system in many dormitories, barracks and prisons to identify new cases in situations where transmission risk is high," Mathers said. "Applications for wastewater surveillance to inform and control infectious disease transmission will continue to evolve, but it is hard to believe how far and how fast we have come in the last year."
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Findings Published
The project was a collaborative effort of UVA's School of Medicine, School of Engineering, School of Data Science and UVA Health's Facilities Management. The research team consisted of Colosi-Peterson, Katie E. Barry, Shireen M. Kotay, Michael D. Porter, Melinda D. Poulter, Cameron Ratliff, William Simmons, Limor I. Steinberg, D. Derek Wilson, Rena Morse, Paul Zmick and Mathers.
The researchers have published their findings in the scientific journal Applied and Environmental Microbiology.
The work was supported by a UVA Engineering in Medicine Seed Grant and support from the University Reopening Committee.
Trinity study finds people homeless in their 20s, 30s and 40s are physically comparable to those housed in their 70s and 80s
A Trinity College study published today (Monday, 10th May 2021) demonstrates an extremely high burden of physical and mobility problems experienced by people who are homeless and were admitted for inpatient care to an acute hospital in Dublin. The study found that only one third of participants could climb a hospital stairs and there was a very common presentation of geriatric conditions such as frailty, falls and needing a mobility aid on a long term basis, despite a low median participant age of 45 years.
Overall the study provided visible evidence of accelerated physical ageing among this cohort relative to the general population with participants, (all homeless and mostly using hostel accommodation or rough sleeping) in their 20s, 30s and 40s experiencing poor physical status and geriatric syndromes comparable to housed individuals in their 70s or 80s years.
It is commonly accepted that adults who are homeless experience poor health and frequently require hospital in-patient care. The objective of this study however was to evaluate a broad range of physical functioning variables to enable better future planning of targeted health and accommodation services for this group.
Uniquely this study collectively evaluated this group using a broad range of robust physical functioning measures, including lower extremity physical function, falls risk, functional capacity, stair climbing ability, frailty, fitness and grip strength. Notably, many participants were unable to even complete the simple physical tests due to pain or not feeling well enough.
The study of 65 people, (32.3% female, 66.7% male) was carried out in St James's Hospital and initiated by the Physiotherapy Department, Trinity College and Inclusion Health Team at St James's Hospital. It was conducted by Sinead Kiernan, Department of Physiotherapy St. James's Hospital and Researcher Discipline of Physiotherapy, Trinity and first author and led by Dr Cliona NÃ Cheallaigh, Lead Inclusion Health Service, St. James's Hospital and School of Medicine Trinity College.
Most participants (64.0%) utilized hostel accommodation or were rough sleepers (17%). It was previously noted that people who are homeless tend to present more often for unscheduled care - such as presenting to the emergency department much more commonly than those who are stably housed. Some will need to be admitted to hospital for further care - and this cohort can constitute a substantial proportion of inpatients in many acute hospitals at any one time. Some of these patients were referred to physiotherapy and appeared to have very low levels of mobility but the physical characteristics of this vulnerable group were not well known.
KEY FINDINGS
- The majority (83%) of participants had mobility problems.
- Over half (54%) of this cohort experienced at least 1 fall in the previous 6 months.
- Only 31% could attempt to climb one flight of stairs.
- Only 38% could walk for 6 minutes.
- The majority of participants (70.5%) were frail or pre-frail.
- One quarter (25%) displayed extremely poor balance
Dr. Julie Broderick, Principal Investigator and Assistant Professor, Discipline of Physiotherapy, Trinity College said:
"In our study we found that general physical and mobility levels of participants who were homeless in their 20s, 30s and 40s were comparable to levels we would expect to see among stably housed people in their 70s or 80s, this is visible evidence of accelerated physical ageing among this cohort. The huge physical burden experienced by this group who mostly utilised hostels or were rough sleepers is concerning. As well as other complex needs, mobility levels, strength and fitness need to be targeted in this group to prevent further deterioration. Falls prevention strategies are also necessary. Accommodation services for people who are homeless need to be suitable and accessible for people with low mobility levels."
RECOMMENDATIONS
It is established that many people who are homeless experience problems associated with addiction and mental health complexities, but physical and mobility limitations also deserve greater consideration. The Trinity research team propose that medical and rehabilitation services are needed to target these limitations as some may be reversible with appropriate physiotherapy provision. Physiotherapy and other physical rehabilitation services are a priority for this group.
Appropriate community and outreach services are also necessary as it is likely that ongoing support will be needed after discharge from hospital. Specific community-based onward referral services are also required.
And finally, the research team recommends that housing policy should respond to the physical health needs of people who are homeless along with housing and accommodation services that are designed with accessibility in mind.
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Social isolation has a profound and increasingly negative impact on physical functioning in older adults
Researchers highlight the importance of incorporating strategies to reduce social isolation and promote successful aging, in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine
Ann Arbor, May 11, 2021 - Social isolation among older adults is associated with poor health and premature mortality, but the connection between social isolation and physical functioning is poorly understood. New research generates more robust evidence about the associations between social isolation and physical functioning and how this accelerates over time, reports the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, published by Elsevier. It also highlights the importance of incorporating strategies to reduce social isolation and promote successful aging.
"Physical functioning is understood to influence the health of individuals. And social isolation is prevalent among older adults," explained lead investigator Borja del Pozo Cruz, PhD, Centre for Active and Healthy Ageing, Department of Sports Science and Clinical Biomechanics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark. "However, the true extent of the relationship between social isolation and physical functioning was not fully understood. We needed to shed some more light on this relationship, as it plays an important role in individual aging."
As individuals age, physical functioning declines, which can result in a loss of functional independence, onset of disability, and increased mortality, with significant personal, community, and economic costs. Older adults who are socially integrated may be more likely to engage in physical activity, which would in turn elicit improvements in their physical functioning.
Social isolation is a significant problem facing the health and well-being of individuals across the life course. Individuals who are socially isolated are more likely to experience mental health problems, develop dementia, and have increased risk of premature mortality. Social isolation is particularly worrisome among older adults, with data from the United States indicating that one in four older adults is isolated or severely isolated. Given the worldwide trends in population aging, social isolation among older adults is likely to become an increasing burden in years to come.
To examine the longitudinal associations between social isolation and physical functioning, investigators used nine waves of panel data from 2011 to 2019 from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS), a large US-representative sample of adults 65 or older. This means that the results can be generalized to the US population of older adults. The study analyzed observations from 12,427 NHATS participants to measure how individual changes in social isolation were associated with individual changes in objectively assessed physical functioning. Social isolation was captured through the Social Isolation Index (SII). Physical functioning was assessed using the NHATS version of the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB). The analytic sample encompassed 54,860 observations, meaning that respondents were observed 4.41 times on average.
These findings add to a growing evidence base demonstrating the negative consequences of social isolation, specifically the acceleration of aging decline trajectories in physical functioning. Investigators were able to identify with a high degree of granularity how the association between social isolation and physical functioning shifts over old age and exacerbates the decline in physical functioning associated with aging. The results showed that the older individuals are, the greater the extent to which social isolation impacts their health.
A small but growing number of observational studies in the UK, Japan, and China have identified negative associations between social isolation and physical functioning in samples of older adults. The current study resonates with and complements those results. However, the robust data generated by this national rather than community-based study enable findings to be generalized to a national population.
"Physical functioning is a well-established marker of general health and it has been previously correlated with morbidity and mortality," noted Dr. del Pozo Cruz. "We demonstrate in this study that social isolation has a profound impact on the physical functioning in older adults. Mandated social contact restrictions and lockdowns due to COVID-19, coupled with more severe consequences of contagion among older adults, have likely exacerbated this trend.
Study findings suggest that public health interventions should turn their attention to the social environments in which older people are embedded, in particular for those at risk of isolation.
"Social isolation is one of the biggest challenges that societies face in the 21st century. We have to start thinking about this issue now to avoid more serious consequences down the track," added Dr. del Pozo Cruz.
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Meditative practice and spiritual wellbeing may preserve cognitive function in aging
In the Journal of Alzheimer's Disease investigators review research that shows spiritual fitness and meditation mitigate the negative effects of stress and reduce the risk of memory loss, cognitive impairment, and Alzheimer's disease
IMAGE: THE OVERALL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SPIRITUAL FITNESS AND A PERSON'S COMPLETE PHYSICAL AND MENTAL HEALTH. view more
CREDIT: DR. KHALSA AND DR. NEWBERG
Amsterdam, May 11, 2021 - It is projected that up to 152 million people worldwide will be living with Alzheimer's disease (AD) by 2050. To date there are no drugs that have a substantial positive impact on either the prevention or reversal of cognitive decline. A growing body of evidence finds that targeting lifestyle and vascular risk factors have a beneficial effect on overall cognitive performance. A new review in the Journal of Alzheimer's Disease, published by IOS Press, examines research that finds spiritual fitness, a new concept in medicine that centers on psychological and spiritual wellbeing, and Kirtan Kriya, a simple 12-minute meditative practice, may reduce multiple risk factors for AD.
"The key point of this review is that making a commitment to a brain longevity lifestyle, including spiritual fitness, is a critically important way for aging Alzheimer's disease free," explain authors Dharma Singh Khalsa, MD, Alzheimer's Research and Prevention Foundation, Tucson, AZ, USA, and Andrew B. Newberg, MD, Department of Integrative Medicine and Nutritional Sciences, Department of Radiology, Marcus Institute of Integrative Health, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, PA, USA. "We hope this article will inspire scientists, clinicians, and patients to embrace this new concept of spiritual fitness and make it a part of every multidomain program for the prevention of cognitive disability."
Research reveals that religious and spiritual involvement can preserve cognitive function as we age. The authors observe that today, spirituality is often experienced outside the context of an organized religion and may be part of every religion or separate to it. Spiritual fitness is a new dimension in AD prevention, interweaving basic, psychological and spiritual wellbeing. The authors discuss the research on how these factors affect brain function and cognition. For example, psychological wellbeing may reduce inflammation, cardiovascular disease, and disability. Significantly, individuals who have a high score on a "purpose in life" (PIL) measure, a component of psychological wellbeing, were 2.4 times more likely to remain free of AD than individuals with low PIL. In another study, participants who reported higher levels of PIL exhibited better cognitive function, and further, PIL protected those with already existing pathological conditions, thus slowing their decline.
Stress and stress management are under-discussed topics in AD prevention, yet the authors point out that there is ample evidence that physical, psychological, and emotional effects of stress may elevate AD risk. Kirtan Kriya (KK) is a 12-minute singing meditation that involves four sounds, breathing, and repetitive finger movements. It has multiple documented effects on stress, such as improving sleep, decreasing depression, and increasing wellbeing. It has also been found to increase blood flow to areas of the brain involved in cognition and emotional regulation and increases grey matter volume and decreases ventricular size in long-term practitioners, which may slow brain aging. Research in healthy individuals, caregivers, and those with cognitive decline found that the practice improves cognition, slows memory loss, and improves mood.
The overall relationship between spiritual fitness and a person's complete physical and mental health is a topic of investigation in the emerging field of study called neurotheology. Early work has focused on the development of models regarding which brain areas are affected through spiritual practices such as meditation or prayer. Over the last 20 years, there has been an extensive growth in neuroimaging and other physiological studies evaluating the effect of meditation, spiritual practices, and mystical experiences. A neuroimaging study of KK found long term brain effects, during meditation and afterwards. Neurotheological studies can help understanding of how a practice such as KK can lead to more permanent effects in brain function that support spiritual fitness, according to Dr. Khalsa and Dr. Newberg.
"Mitigating the extensive negative biochemical effects of stress with meditation practices, in tandem with the creation of heightened levels of spiritual fitness, may help lower the risk of AD. Small shifts in one's daily routine can make all the difference in AD prevention," Dr. Khalsa and Dr. Newberg conclude. "We are optimistic this article will inspire future research on the topic of spiritual fitness and AD."
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George Perry, PhD, Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Alzheimer's Disease and Professor of Biology and Chemistry, Semmes Distinguished University Chair in Neurobiology, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX, added, "Living a brain longevity lifestyle including spiritual fitness is the only proven way to prevent this disease."
Extreme weather affecting UK agriculture -- But adapting to changing climate a challenge for many farmers, study shows
Extreme weather is harming UK agriculture - but many farmers have not yet made adapting to the effects of the climate emergency a priority, a new study shows.
All farmers who took part in the research said they had experienced or witnessed issues caused by extreme weather such as heavy rain or prolonged dry spells in recent years, and expected these to intensify further.
Many were concerned about the impact of heat and drought on crop and grass growth, with knock-on impacts for yield and winter animal feed, and the implications of heavy rainfall/flooding for soil run-off and erosion and for field operations such as drilling and harvesting. For a number of farmers, however, ongoing and future changes to our weather and climate were seen as too uncertain and too long-term for them to invest significant time or money in planning for them now,
The study shows many farmers are focused on short-term profitability and business survival in a challenging economic environment, as well as concerned about other political and public pressures. Although there is a growing acceptance that the climate is changing and that there are benefits to taking action, uncertainties about the exact scale, speed and nature of change locally, make it difficult for farmers to plan ahead.
The research, published in the journal Climate Risk Management, was carried out by Dr Rebecca Wheeler and Professor Matt Lobley from the University of Exeter's Centre for Rural Policy Research, in partnership with scientists from the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Rothamsted Research and Lancaster University.
Researchers carried out 31 in-depth interviews, 15 with farmers and 16 with stakeholders including advisors, consultants and industry representatives.
A number of agricultural stakeholders said they were concerned too few farm businesses are taking sufficient action to increase their business resilience to extreme weather and climate change.
Some farmers "hadn't got around" to certain measures they would like to undertake, whilst others were "concentrating on the short term".
Dr Wheeler said: "Farmers have an array of challenges and uncertainties to cope with, and it is understandable they are focused on the short-term profitability and survival of their business. This seems to be preventing them from adapting to the effects of the climate emergency. It is essential the industry finds ways to build resilience, and that farm businesses are supported in planning and responding to changing weather patterns."
More positively, the research also highlighted the capacity for innovation and adaptability within the farming industry. Many farmers are building resilience within their business through actions to improve soil health, which as well as raising productivity and storing carbon, also increases the ability for grass and crops to cope with weather extremes. There is also reason for farmers to be optimistic about some of the opportunities posed by climate change, such as warmer temperatures enabling new crops and increased yields in some instances, - as long as they are able to 'weather' the challenges posed by negative effects.
As well as improving soil health, positive actions taken by farmers in the research to future-proof their business included continuous evaluation of crop/grass varieties and growing techniques, installing additional livestock housing with good ventilation, increasing rainwater storage capacity, and risk-spreading through expanding the diversity of their crops and enterprises.
Professor Lobley said: "There are many innovative and exciting activities happening on farms across the country, but much is still to be done to improve the resilience of individual farms and the industry as a whole.
"Few farmers described themselves as directly adapting to climate change but most did see themselves as taking positive steps to respond to the risks of extreme weather or to generally improve their business resilience. For a number of farmers this primarily took the form of improving soil health."
Industry representatives involved in the research welcomed such positive steps but called for greater uptake of these and other measures. The findings highlighted a need for government and agricultural stakeholders to work with farmers to help them understand the risks posed to their particular business from extreme weather and climate change. Actions to help farmers respond and adapt to these risks include improved industry collaboration, creating opportunities for farmer-to-farmer learning, and providing tailored tools and support that take into account the specificities of different farming systems.
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The research was undertaken as part of the Crop Monitoring and Modelling Network for Improved Predictions of Climate Impacts (CROPNET) project, in partnership with the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster University and Rothamsted Research. The researchers are grateful to the Achieving Sustainable Agricultural Systems (ASSIST) network and all who contributed to and took part in the study
The research was funded by the UK Climate Resilience programme, which is jointly led by UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and the Met Office with Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) taking UKRI lead on behalf of Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC), Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC). Grant ref: NE/S01702X/. The funders have had no direct involvement in the research process or publication of related articles.
Elon Musk’s carbon comments will be ‘changing point’ for bitcoin: Gryphon CEO
Bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) price continued its free fall on Wednesday morning, down 15% to about $37,000 per coin by noon EDT. The cryptocurrency has dropped nearly 40% since Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk first bashed the fossil fuel emissions from bitcoin’s mining process a week ago.
“I believe what he said will be a changing point for the way bitcoin is perceived. He is casting a spotlight on energy use for … bitcoin, which is relevant. And it is making companies such as ourselves more relevant, and more on the forefront,” Gryphon Digital Mining CEO Robert Chang told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday.
Indeed, the race for carbon-free bitcoin mining has already begun.
Founded in early 2021, Gryphon Digital Mining operates completely free of carbon emissions by using hydropower. The company raised $14 million in April to move forward with the project and recently signed the Crypto Climate Accord, which is striving for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions for all signatories by 2040 and net zero emissions from electricity consumption by 2030. Though signatories haven’t piled on yet, the accord is rumored to have around 45 supporters.
SpaceX founder and Tesla CEO Elon Musk holds a helmet as he visits the construction site of Tesla's gigafactory in Gruenheide, near Berlin, Germany, May 17, 2021. REUTERS/Michele Tantussi TPX “(Reaching carbon-freAYe mining is) doable now I believe,” Chang said. “For example we were able to find 100% renewable energy through hydro right off the bat, so why can't others? I think partially because the thinking process is for some reason that if it's renewable, it has to be more expensive and that's certainly not the case.”
The company is led by Chang and several other prominent executives, including founder and president, Dan Tolhurst, who held senior strategy roles at Disney and Netflix, as well as independent chairperson of the board, Brittany Kaiser, the famed whistleblower of Cambridge Analytica. Chang likes where his company is positioned as the bitcoin discussion shifts to sustainability.
Chang's comments come after Musk tweeted on May 12 that the electric vehicle maker had suspended vehicle purchases using bitcoin. "We are concerned about rapidly increasing use of fossil fuels for bitcoin mining and transactions, especially coal, which has the worst emissions of any fuel," Musk wrote.
The next day, Musk reiterated his commitment to cryptocurrencies while still noting his environmental concerns
'We should look at the utility of bitcoin'
Still, Chang noted that while bitcoin’s emissions are large, they aren’t out of this world.
A Decrypt article from March equated bitcoin’s carbon emissions to the average electricity consumption of 9 million homes in one year. Still, the world carbon emissions are 620 times that of bitcoin’s, per Decrypt. Chang argued in a recent blog that bitcoin’s emissions are closer to acceptable when considering the overall value of the currency in the same way the U.S. has accepted energy consumption to print the dollar.
“I think we're looking at it the wrong way in that we should look at the utility of bitcoin as opposed to focusing so much on the cost of it,” Chang told Yahoo Finance.
Chang likened the bitcoin carbon emissions concerns to the invention of cars. In the early 20th Century, cars emitted far more fossil fuels into the atmosphere than the product’s travel predecessor — the horse and carriage — but people accepted cars’ convenience. As car models slowly shift to the electronic vehicle space, bitcoin is following a similar trajectory.
That’s why Musk’s comments aren’t bad for the industry in the long term and could even be good for carbon-free mining companies, according to Chang.
“Companies that (have carbon-free mining) will start to be getting a premium in the eyes of investors and the eyes of people looking to buy bitcoin,” Chang said.
Analysis-To tackle climate change, China must overhaul its vast power grid
SO DOES AMERICA, WHO WILL DO IT FIRST Muyu Xu and John Geddie Wed., May 19, 2021 FILE PHOTO: FILE PHOTO: Power lines and wind turbines are pictured at a wind and solar energy storage and transmission power station in Zhangjiakou
By Muyu Xu and John Geddie
BEIJING/LONDON (Reuters) - One of the most pressing challenges for China to meet its pledge to cap carbon emissions this decade and pivot toward renewables is overhauling its electricity grid, the world's largest, officials and analysts say.
Beijing's surprise announcement last year that it would hit peak emissions by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060 could presage the biggest reduction in projected global warming of any climate commitment to date, researchers say.
But building new solar plants and wind farms is the easy part, analysts say. Upgrading the system that transmits that green power to faraway consumers could be five times more costly, and depends on rapid technological progress.
"When we talk about the challenges, most people focus on the (electricity) grid," said Chunping Xie, an expert on China's policies on climate change and energy at the London School of Economics and Political Science. "It's the first step in this long journey."
Investments in China's grid and other associated costs are expected to exceed 6 trillion yuan ($896 billion) over the next five years, Mao Weiming, former chairman of State Grid, said in a speech in October.
China, the world's biggest electricity generator, power consumer and carbon emitter, has said it is aiming for renewable power to account for more than 50% of its total electricity generation capacity by 2025, up from 42% now.
This mainly involves pivoting to solar and wind energy and away from coal, of which China is the biggest global consumer. Beijing plans to more than double its solar and wind power capacity to 1,200 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, from 535 GW now.
Such a drastic swing from coal, which generates a stable baseload power supply, to renewables, which can fluctuate with weather conditions, could play havoc with China's electricity network, officials say.
A senior manager in charge of dispatch at China's State Grid - the world's largest utility, which manages 75% of the country's network - told Reuters the system had already "reached its ceiling" of how many renewable sources it could handle and still maintain stable operations. The official asked to remain anonymous as he is not authorised to talk to the media.
But China, which runs the world's largest power system, with a total installed capacity of 2,201 GW compared with 1,107 GW in the United States, is pressing on.
By 2030, it has said it will force grid operators to buy at least 40% their of power from non-fossil fuel sources, up from around 28% now.
MAJOR COSTS
Alex Whitworth, a research director at Wood Mackenzie, said that the pace of grid investment would most likely be maintained until the end of the decade, and would be five times higher than the cost of building additional renewable plants in that period.
The major costs involve new power lines, re-tooling hundreds of coal plants as backup generators, and ramping up storage capacity, analysts and officials say.
At least seven new ultra-high voltage power lines would be built over the next five years to better connect the country's far western regions, where solar, wind and hydropower plants are mainly located, to China's big cities, the State Grid said. China has 29 such lines already. That buildout could cost an estimated $34 billion.
"We have reached a consensus that China will preserve coal plants, but only for emergency uses," said Shu Yinbiao, president of Huaneng Group, China's second-largest power generation firm, and a former State Grid president.
But China is struggling to promote costly modifications to coal plants allowing them to offset gyrations in renewable power. It typically costs 150 million yuan ($23.27 million) to upgrade a 300-megawatt coal plant. Only about 10% of coal-fired power plants in China have been modified, according to data from State Grid and China Electricity Council. "China will need to establish a mechanism to make coal power unfavourable in the renewables' booming moment," said Zhang Shuwei, a director at Draworld Energy Research Centre. "Otherwise China is not able to advance its green agenda." TECH PROBLEMS
Power storage is another obstacle.
Bing Han, a senior research analyst at IHS Markit, expects China to need about 120 GW of energy storage to support additional solar and wind power needs by 2030. That is four times more than the 32.3GW capacity in place as of 2019, according to China Energy Storage Alliance.
For battery storage, Wood Mackenzie's Whitworth said China is expected to install 47 GWh by 2030, more than four times the total global storage capacity today.
But it is not just a question of cost. Chinese officials have said they are worried about slow technological developments.
"Power storage technology has not realized revolutionary progress," said Li Gao, director of Climate Change Department at the Ministry of Ecology and Environment at a media briefing in April.
Michal Meidan, director of the China Energy Programme at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, said "geopolitical tensions" and "technological rivalry" between China and Western countries could also hinder the collaboration needed to improve Beijing's storage capacity.
"It's not to say China cannot innovate, but it could take longer until China has its home-grown innovation," she said.
Other analysts questioned China's commitment to renewable power plans given its lack of clarity on phasing out coal and continued expansion of new power plants. China put 38.4 GW of new coal-fired power capacity into operation in 2020, more than three times the amount built elsewhere around the world.
But all agreed tackling the power system is an essential first step of a project critical to the future of the planet.
"The world just can't achieve climate targets without China," said LSE's Xie. "China's role in the world is now of a magnitude that makes its actions in the immediate future critical to how the world goes forward."
($1 = 6.4463 Chinese yuan renminbi)
(Reporting by Muyu Xu in Beijing and John Geddie in London, additional reporting by Nina Chestney in London; Editing by Gerry Doyle)
