ANOTHER NATO SUCCESS STORY
10 years since Kadhafi death, stability still eludes Libya

Issued on: 19/10/2021

People gather along the beach in Libya's eastern city of Benghazi, 

on October 15, 2021. Abdullah DOMA AFP/File


Tripoli (AFP)

Ten years since dictator Moamer Kadhafi was slain by Libyan rebels, the North African country is still struggling to emerge from the violence sparked by his overthrow.

A year-long ceasefire and a UN-led peace process have barely papered over deep divisions, and upcoming elections are unlikely to resolve the crisis, analysts say.

Kadhafi ruled Libya with an iron fist for 42 years after a 1969 coup against the monarchy, portraying himself as a revolutionary, Arab and African hero while mercilessly crushing all opposition.

In 2011, he was toppled in a revolt inspired by the Arab Spring uprisings and backed by NATO.

On October 20 of that year, rebels tracked him down to his hometown Sirte, tortured him and killed him in the street, displaying his body in a market.

His death has failed to bring democracy or stability.

Instead, Libya has fractured along regional and ideological lines, with an assortment of mafia-like militias and their foreign backers vying for control of the oil-rich country.

Last October's ceasefire was followed in March by the appointment of a unity government with a mandate to lead Libya to elections.

So with a presidential poll set for December 24 and legislative elections in January, is Libya finally turning the page on a decade of chaos?

"Relative to the past 10 years, Libya is in a much-improved situation," said Hamish Kinnear, an analyst with the research institute Verisk Maplecroft.

"The ceasefire agreed to in October 2020 continues to hold and the Government of National Unity is hanging on as Libya's sole government.

"But Libya's political stability is increasingly precarious," Kinnear told AFP.

"The next six months will tell us whether the quiet period that followed the October 2020 ceasefire was merely an opportunity for armed factions to lick their wounds or actual progress towards a political solution."

- Contested outcomes? -

Libyan academic Mahoud Khalfallah also voiced doubts that elections alone would lead to "a definitive solution" to the crisis. THEY HAVEN'T SO FAR

That would require "an end to negative foreign involvement in Libya's internal affairs, maturity of Libyan voters in choosing who represents them, disregarding tribalism and regionalism, and all sides accepting the outcome of elections," he said.

None of those is a given.

The road to the ballot box has been paved with bitter debates over electoral laws, notably a bill on presidential polls that appeared tailor-made for a bid by military strongman Khalifa Haftar and was passed in a move many of his opponents say bypassed due process.

A city name sign is pictured in front of war-ravaged buildings in Libya's eastern city of Benghazi 

Abdullah DOMA AFP/File

Haftar is despised by many in western Libya, particularly after the year-long offensive by his self-styled Libyan National Army to seize Tripoli, which killed thousands of people before he was pushed back by Turkish-backed armed groups in June 2020.

The strongman's portrait, with a vivid red cross over his face, now hangs on many official buildings.

Kinnear warned that polls based on the controversial law without wider backing from groups in the west could divide Libya once again into competing eastern and western governments.

"The risk of this would be heightened if Khalifa Haftar won the presidency, as he is a toxic figure for the armed factions that defended Tripoli during the LNA's failed offensive," he said.

- 'Irregularities' -

Foreign officials have prioritised holding elections and turned a blind eye to irregularities around the political process, including allegations of corruption around the February election of interim Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah.

"We are aware that there have been irregularities, even corruption, but we still believe that the solution lies in these elections," one European diplomat in Tripoli told AFP.

Analyst Ahmed al-Rashrash said Libyans were "hoping these elections will lead to a better life and to political stability and security".

A decade of conflict has ruined infrastructure and battered the economy, leaving the country suffering chronic power cuts and runaway inflation 

Abdullah DOMA AFP/File

But many voice doubts the process will resolve deep-seated issues.

"We're in a vicious cycle because of the failure of the political process," said Tripoli civil servant Abdelfattah Benour.

The situation has left some nostalgic for Kadhafi's era.

While the leader brutally stamped out all forms of opposition during his rule, many enjoyed high living standards paid for by Libya's vast oil wealth, with the highest GDP per capita in Africa.

That is a stark contrast to today.

A decade of conflict has ruined infrastructure and battered the economy, leaving Libya suffering chronic power cuts and runaway inflation.

That has left Libyans themselves suffering "both psychologically and economically", said Tripoli businessman Issam el-Mejri, although he said he felt "more freedom" since Kadhafi's fall.

Faraj Najib, who runs a small shop in the eastern city of Benghazi, said the elections were "a ray of hope for Libyans, who have been hugely impoverished" by the years of conflict.

© 2021 AFP

Lebanon elite united against probe seen as survival threat

Issued on: 19/10/2021 - 

Lebanese bury their dead after the official inquiry into last year's Beirut port explosion sparked bloodshed on the streets of the capital

 IBRAHIM AMRO AFP/File

Beirut (AFP)

They may often squabble but Lebanon's political parties seem united in rejecting an investigation into Beirut's massive port explosion that they fear could threaten their survival, analysts say.

The explosion of a huge stockpile of poorly stored fertiliser on the dockside on August 4, 2020 killed more than 210 people, wounded thousands and ravaged half the capital.

In the aftermath of mass protests in late 2019 demanding the ouster of the traditional ruling class, many said the disaster was just the latest example of official incompetence and corruption.

But months into a domestic investigation, no one has been held accountable.

Politicians have repeatedly obstructed the work of judge Tarek Bitar by refusing to show up for questioning, filing legal complaints against him or calling for his dismissal, which last week sparked deadly violence in the heart of Beirut.

Analyst Lina Khatib said hopes were fading of holding those responsible for the port blast accountable.

"The ruling class in Lebanon is in agreement about wanting the port probe to be abandoned and they will use all available means to derail it," said Khatib, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the Chatham House think tank.

The country's powerful Shiite movement Hezbollah has spearheaded a campaign to remove Bitar, accusing him of political bias.

The debate over his future, which comes after the previous investigator was removed in February, has already triggered the postponement of one cabinet meeting despite the urgency of addressing Lebanon's acute economic crisis.

- 'Battle for the rule of law' -

Nadim Houry, executive director at the Arab Reform Initiative, said that the whole ruling class felt under threat in what he described as "an essential battle in Lebanon for rule of law".

Last week's bloodshed and the funerals of those killed brought armed militiamen onto the streets of Beirut in scenes reminiscent of Lebanon's 1975 to 1990 civil war

 IBRAHIM AMRO AFP/File

"A section of society has decided that they want to go all the way and ask for truth," but they face "a political class that is willing to use threats, use violence, use even launching into another civil war to prevent that quest for truth from leading to a result," he said.

It emerged after the port blast that officials had known that hundreds of tonnes of ammonium nitrate had for years been left to linger in a warehouse near residential neighbourhoods.

Families of the victims see in Bitar the only hope for justice in a country where impunity has long been the norm.

After the 1975 to 1990 civil war, Lebanon issued a broad amnesty that benefited the country's warlords, allowing many of them to become political leaders.

"Regardless of what Bitar finds, it's the idea itself that any of them can somehow be held accountable that they are resisting," Houry said.

Any success in the blast probe would set a precedent and unravel a "impunity regime" under which each party agrees not to pursue the other for its crimes, as long as it is not targeted itself.

Tensions came to a boil last week after a rally against Bitar organised by Hezbollah and its Shiite ally Amal descended into violence that killed seven of their supporters.

- 'Price too high' -

The sound of gunfire and rocket-propelled grenades trapped residents indoors for hours, reviving memories of the civil war.

The inquiry's chief, judge Tarek Bitar, has become a bugbear not just for the Shiite parties pushing for his replacement but for the whole political elite, analysts say - AFP/File

Hezbollah accused snipers of the Lebanese Forces, a Christian party, of causing the bloodshed, but the latter has denied this.

The army, meanwhile, is investigating a video circulated on social media that appears to show a soldier shooting at protesters.

"Hezbollah is increasingly acting as the praetorian guard of the regime that has come into place since the 1990s," Houry said.

The Iran-backed movement, the only one not to have disarmed after the civil war, is at least partly blacklisted by most Western governments but holds seats in parliament.

While political parties have publicly supported an investigation, analysts say they ultimately wish to protect their own interests.

"Lebanon's ruling class may be political opponents but they are united in profiteering from the system... and they therefore oppose any steps to reform it or to instil accountability within it," Khatib said.

A spokesman for the families of blast victims quit on Saturday, after many feared he had been intimidated into toeing the Hezbollah line and calling for Bitar to step down.

Ibrahim Hoteit, who lost his brother in the explosion, lives in a Shiite-majority neighbourhood.

The following day, many refrained from taking part in a protest to mark the second anniversary of the now-defunct 2019 protest movement, fearing further violence.

"Ultimately, the ruling class want to push the Lebanese to conclude that the price of accountability is too high," Khatib said.

© 2021 AFP

Social unrest threatens Mideast economic recovery: IMF

Issued on: 19/10/2021

A protester holds a flag during clashes with armed forces in Lebanon, whose economy is in a tailspin PATRICK BAZ AFP/File

Dubai (AFP)

The Middle East and North Africa is on track for a recovery, but rising social unrest is threatening the "fragile" progress of low-income economies, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday.

The MENA region, which includes Arab countries and Iran, saw real GDP growth shrink by 3.2 percent in 2020 due to weak oil prices and sweeping lockdowns to halt the spread of the coronavirus.

But with rapid vaccination campaigns, especially in oil-rich Gulf nations, the IMF predicted GDP growth would rise to 4.1 percent this year, up 0.1 of a percentage point from its last projection in April.

"The region is going through recovery in 2021. Since the beginning of the year, we see progress in the economic performance," said Jihad Azour, director for the Middle East and Central Asia at the IMF.

But "this recovery is not the same in all countries. It is uncertain and uneven because of the divergence in vaccination... and geopolitical developments", he told AFP.

The IMF said in a report that while the prospects for oil-exporting economies improved with higher oil prices, low-income and crisis-hit countries were witnessing "fragile" recoveries.

It warned of "a rise in social unrest" in 2021 that "could pick up further due to repeated infection waves, dire economic conditions, high unemployment and food prices".

Algeria, Iraq, Lebanon, Sudan other countries have been witnessing protests in recent months by thousands of angry citizens demanding better jobs and services.

Unemployment increased in MENA last year by 1.4 percent to reach 11.6 percent, a rise exceeding that seen during the global financial crisis and the 2014-15 oil price shock, the IMF said.

- Increasing inequities -

The IMF warned of the longer-term risk of an uneven recovery, which could lead to a "permanent widening of existing wealth, income, and social gaps and, ultimately, weaker growth and less inclusive societies".

About seven million more people in the region are estimated to have entered extreme poverty during 2020-21 compared with pre-crisis projections, according to the IMF.

Meanwhile, inflation in the region is projected to increase to 12.9 percent in 2021 from 10.4 last year, with higher food and energy prices in some countries, before subsiding to 8.8 percent in 2022.

"Inequities are increasing. The low-skilled, the young, women, and migrant workers have been affected the most by the pandemic, as have smaller firms, particularly those in contact-sensitive sectors," said the report.

According to the international lender, the corporate sector has recovered to pre-pandemic levels, but smaller firms and those in "contact-sensitive sectors" are lagging behind.

"Fifteen to 25 percent of firms may need to be restructured or liquidated," it added.

In Lebanon, the continuing drop in the value of the currency has dashed hopes that the government formed last month can stem an economic crisis that the World Bank brands as one of the worst since the mid-19th century.

Nearly 80 percent of Lebanon's population lives below the poverty line.

"The Fund has already started technical discussions with the authorities... to develop what would be in fact that the framework within which the fund can help Lebanon," said Azour, a former Lebanese finance minister.

© 2021 AFP

Energy crunch hits global recovery as winter approaches

By DAVID McHUGH, COLLEEN BARRY, JOE McDONALD and TATIANA POLLASTR

I2 hours ago

 In this Sept. 27, 2021 file photo, steam billows out of the cooling towers at a coal-fired power station in Nanjing in east China's Jiangsu province. The world's facing an energy crunch. Europe is feeling it worst as natural gas prices skyrocket to five times normal, forcing some factories to hold back production. Reserves depleted last winter haven't been made up, and chief supplier Russia has held back on supplying extra. Meanwhile, the new Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline won't start operating in time to help if the weather is cold, and there's talk Europe could wind up rationing electricity. China is feeling it too, seeing power outages in some towns. (Chinatopix via AP, file)

Power shortages are turning out streetlights and shutting down factories in China. The poor in Brazil are choosing between paying for food or electricity. German corn and wheat farmers can’t find fertilizer, made using natural gas. And fears are rising that Europe will have to ration electricity if it’s a cold winter.

The world is gripped by an energy crunch — a fierce squeeze on some of the key markets for natural gas, oil and other fuels that keep the global economy running and the lights and heat on in homes. Heading into winter, that has meant higher utility bills, more expensive products and growing concern about how energy-consuming Europe and China will recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The biggest squeeze is on natural gas in Europe, which imports 90% of its supply — largely from Russia — and where prices have risen to five times what they were at the start of the year, to 95 euros from about 19 euros per megawatt hour.

It’s hitting the Italian food chain hard, with methane prices expected to increase sixfold and push up the cost of drying grains. That could eventually raise the price of bread and pasta at supermarkets, but meat and dairy aisles are more vulnerable as beef and dairy farmers are forced to pay more for grain to feed their animals and pass the cost along to customers.

“From October we are starting to suffer a lot,” said Valentino Miotto of the AIRES association that represents the grain sector.

Analysts blame a confluence of events for the gas crunch: Demand rose sharply as the economy rebounded from the pandemic, while a cold winter depleted reserves. Europe’s chief supplier, Russia’s Gazprom, held back extra summer supplies beyond its long-term contracts to fill reserves at home for winter. China’s electricity demand has come roaring back, vacuuming up limited supplies of liquid natural gas, which moves by ship, not pipeline. There also are limited facilities to export natural gas from the United States.

Costlier natural gas has even pushed up oil prices because some power generators in Asia can switch from using gas to oil-based products. U.S. crude is over $83 per barrel, the highest in seven years, while international benchmark Brent is around $85, with oil cartel OPEC and allied countries cautious about restoring production cuts made during the pandemic.

The crunch is likely short term but it’s difficult to say how long higher fossil fuel prices will last, said Claudia Kemfert, an energy economics expert at the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin.

But “the long-term answer that has to be taken out of this is to invest in renewables and energy saving,” she said.

 In this Jan. 14, 2021, file photo, tugboats get into position on the Russian pipe-laying vessel "Fortuna" in the port of Wismar, Germany. The world's facing an energy crunch. Europe is feeling it worst as natural gas prices skyrocket to five times normal, forcing some factories to hold back production. Reserves depleted last winter haven't been made up, and chief supplier Russia has held back on supplying extra. Meanwhile, the new Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline won't start operating in time to help if the weather is cold, and there's talk Europe could wind up rationing electricity. China is feeling it too, seeing power outages in some towns. (Jens Buettner/DPA via AP, File)

The European Union’s executive commission urged member nations last week to speed up approvals for renewable energy projects like wind and solar, saying the “clean energy transition is the best insurance against price shocks in the future and needs to be accelerated.”

In the meantime, some gas-dependent European industries are throttling back production. German chemical companies BASF and SKW Piesteritz have cut output of ammonia, a key ingredient in fertilizer.

That left Hermann Greif, a farmer in the village of Pinzberg in Germany’s southern Bavaria region, unexpectedly emptyhanded when he tried to order fertilizer for next year.

“There’s no product, no price, not even a contract,” he said. “It’s a situation we’ve never seen before.” One thing is certain: “If I don’t give the crops the food they need, they react with lower yields. It’s as simple as that.”

High energy prices already were hitting the region’s farmers, who need diesel to operate machinery and heat to keep animals warm, said Greif, who grows corn to feed a bioenergy power facility that feeds emission-free energy into the power grid.

Likewise in Italy, the cost of energy to process wheat and corn is expected to go up more than 600% for the three months ending Dec. 31, according to the grain association. That includes turning wheat into flour, and corn into feed for cows and pigs.

Giampietro Scusato, an energy consultant who negotiates contracts for the AIRES association and others, expects the volatility and high prices to persist for the coming year.

High energy prices also seep into bread and pasta production through transport costs and electricity use, which could eventually affect store prices. Dairy and meat sections are especially exposed because prices are low now and farmers may be forced to pass along the higher cost of animal feed to shoppers.

People worldwide also are facing soaring utility bills this winter, including in the U.S., where officials have warned home heating prices could jump as much as 54%. Governments in Spain, France, Italy and Greece have announced measures to help low-income households, while the European Union has urged similar aid.

Much depends on the weather. Europe’s gas reserves, usually replenished in summer, are at unusually low levels.

“A cold winter in both Europe and Asia would risk European storage levels dropping to zero,” says Massimo Di Odoardo at research firm Wood Mackenzie.

That would leave Europe dependent on additional natural gas from a just-completed Russian pipeline or on Russian willingness to send more through pipelines across Ukraine. But the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline has not passed regulatory approval in Europe and may not be contributing gas until next year.

 In this Monday, April 11, 2011 file photo, workers of the German energy company RWE prepare power supply on a high power pylon in Moers, Germany. The world's facing an energy crunch. Europe is feeling it worst as natural gas prices skyrocket to five times normal, forcing some factories to hold back production. Reserves depleted last winter haven't been made up, and chief supplier Russia has held back on supplying extra. Meanwhile, the new Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline won't start operating in time to help if the weather is cold, and there's talk Europe could wind up rationing electricity. China is feeling it too, seeing power outages in some towns. (AP Photo/Frank Augstein, File)

Russian suppliers’ decision to sell less gas on spot markets reflects “an intention to put pressure on the early certification of Nord Stream 2,” said Kemfert, the energy economics expert.

In China, outages have followed high prices for coal and gas as electric companies power down amid limits in passing costs to customers or government orders to stay under emission thresholds.

Factories in Jiangsu province, northwest of Shanghai, and Zhejiang in the southeast shut down in mid-September, and dozens warned deliveries might be delayed ahead of the Christmas shopping season.

Chenchen Jewelry Factory in Dongyang, a city in Zhejiang, faced power cuts over 10 days, general manager Joanna Lan said. The factory makes hairbands, stationery and promotional gifts and exports 80% to 90% of its goods to the U.S., Europe and other markets.

Deliveries were delayed “by at least a week,” Lan said. “We had to buy generators.”

The biggest city in the northeast, Shenyang, shut down streetlights and elevators and cut power to restaurants and shops a few hours a day.

China’s gas imports have jumped, but surging demand in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan also helped push up global prices, said Jenny Yang, research manager for the gas, power and energy futures team for China at IHS Markit.

In Brazil, higher gas and oil prices have been compounded by the worst drought in 91 years, which has left hydropower plants unable to supply electricity and more expensive bills.

Rosa Benta, a 67-year-old from a Sao Paulo working-class neighborhood, fears she will no longer be able to provide for her unemployed children and grandkids.

“Several times, (energy company) Enel called me saying I had debt. I told them: ‘I’m not going to stop feeding my son to pay you,’” Benta said outside her concrete house on a steep, narrow street. “If they want to cut the electricity, they can come.”

Benta lives on 1,400 reais (about $250) a month and says she often has to choose between buying gas for cooking or rice and beans.

“I don’t know what we are going to do with our lives,” she said.

 In this Aug. 26, 2021 file photo, a flare burns natural gas at an oil well Aug. 26, 2021, in Watford City, N.D. The world's facing an energy crunch. Europe is feeling it worst as natural gas prices skyrocket to five times normal, forcing some factories to hold back production. Reserves depleted last winter haven't been made up, and chief supplier Russia has held back on supplying extra. Meanwhile, the new Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline won't start operating in time to help if the weather is cold, and there's talk Europe could wind up rationing electricity. China is feeling it too, seeing power outages in some towns. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, file)

___

McHugh reported from Frankfurt, Germany, Barry from Milan, McDonald from Beijing and Pollastri from Sao Paulo.

Lake Tahoe waters plummet as drought, climate change plague resort


Alex Wigglesworth
Sun, October 17, 2021, 

People enjoy the public beach on the north shore of Lake Tahoe in Tahoe Vista. (Gary Coronado / Los Angeles Times)

Lake Tahoe's water level has dropped so low that water is no longer flowing into the Truckee River and salmon aren’t expected to spawn in a major tributary this year.

Some boat ramps and docks are hundreds of feet from the water line, and clumps of stringy algae have been washing up on beaches, said Geoffrey Schladow, director of the UC Davis Tahoe Environmental Research Center.

“It’s putting us on warning that things could  WILL get a lot worse,” he said.

The receding water level, which is driven by climate change and drought, comes as the latest insult to the treasured tourist destination nestled in the Sierra Nevada. Its waters have already been clouded by smoke and ash from multiple wildfires this summer.

Lake Tahoe's water level is always fluctuating. It is typically lowest in December and January and then increases in the spring as melting snow from nearby mountains flows down, Schladow said.

“This year, we didn't get that bump,” he said. “It was more or less dropping since the previous year.”

Multiple boat ramps were unable to open for the summer season.

And with no game-changing precipitation, conditions have continued to worsen. The water level is usually somewhere between the lake's natural rim, which sits at 6,223 feet, and a dam at the top of the Truckee River that is six feet higher, Schladow said. But last week, it dropped just below the rim. By Saturday afternoon, the water level was roughly half an inch below the rim — and falling, according to preliminary data from the U.S. Geological Survey.

That’s because the lake each year loses about six feet of water from evaporation — a rate of about a quarter-inch a day, which can increase with high winds, Schladow said.

“If this next year is just an average year, or worse, a dry year, it probably means that the water level this time next year will be maybe something like four feet below the rim,” he said. “And if the next year is dry, it sort of continues.”

The water last dropped below Lake Tahoe’s rim toward the end of the 2012-17 drought, which was followed by the region's wettest year on record, Schladow said. These swings from dry to wet are nothing new.

“What is changing is that these periods of extreme low and extreme high water seem to be happening more and more frequently,” he said.

That comes as climate change is causing droughts to become drier, hotter and longer, and bursts of precipitation to become shorter and more intense, he said.

“One of the manifestations of climate change that all the models seem to agree on is that there will be more extremes,” he said. “Hot and cold, wet and dry.”

Low water levels in a major tributary to Lake Tahoe forced the U.S. Forest Service to cancel an annual festival celebrating the fall migration of the kokanee salmon. The salmon are not expected to spawn in Taylor Creek this year because of the ongoing drought, although they could return in future years if conditions allow, the Forest Service said.

It’s possible that as the water level continues to drop, the streams that flow into Lake Tahoe could become blocked by sandbars, further jeopardizing the ability of salmon to navigate them, Schladow said. Although they will spawn elsewhere, they will probably have low success, he said.

So-called terminal bodies of water that permanently lose their outflows and become cut off from tributaries are known to grow salty and inhospitable to aquatic life, although that is not expected to happen with Tahoe anytime soon.

Several inches of snow fell in Lake Tahoe last week, but it wasn’t enough to make a measurable difference in the water level. The National Weather Service said more is on the way Sunday into Monday, with 3 to 6 inches expected to fall above 7,000 feet.

Another storm is expected next weekend, said Amanda Young, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Reno.

But overall, she said, this year has been drier and warmer than normal in the forecast area.

And long-term forecasts are calling for those conditions to persist, Schladow said — although that could change, he added.

If the area does see significant precipitation, especially rain, that will raise another concern: debris flows in recent burn areas including the watershed at the south end of the lake, which was scorched by the Caldor fire this year.

“Next spring there may be a lot of material being washed in from Trout Creek and the Upper Truckee River,” Schladow said.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

Climate report: Africa’s rare glaciers soon to disappear
By CARA ANNA

 In this Monday, Dec. 17, 2012 file photo, a herd of adult and baby elephants walks in the dawn light as the highest mountain in Africa, Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania, sits topped with snow in the background, seen from Amboseli National Park in southern Kenya. Africa's rare glaciers will disappear in the next two decades because of climate change, a new report warned Tuesday, Oct. 19, 2021 amid sweeping forecasts of pain for the continent that contributes least to global warming but will suffer from it most.

 (AP Photo/Ben Curtis, File)

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — Africa’s rare glaciers will disappear in the next two decades because of climate change, a new report warned Tuesday amid sweeping forecasts of pain for the continent that contributes least to global warming but will suffer from it most.

The report from the World Meteorological Organization and other agencies, released ahead of the U.N. climate conference in Scotland that starts Oct. 31, is a grim reminder that Africa’s 1.3 billion people remain “extremely vulnerable” as the continent warms more, and at a faster rate, than the global average. And yet Africa’s 54 countries are responsible for less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

The new report seizes on the shrinking glaciers of Mount Kilimanjaro, Mount Kenya and the Rwenzori Mountains in Uganda as symbols of the rapid and widespread changes to come. “Their current retreat rates are higher than the global average. If this continues, it will lead to total deglaciation by the 2040s,” it says.

Massive displacement, hunger and increasing climate shocks such droughts and flooding are in the future, and yet the lack of climate data in parts of Africa “is having a major impact” on disaster warnings for millions of people, WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said at Tuesday’s launch.

Estimates of the economic effects of climate change vary across the African continent, but “in sub-Saharan Africa, climate change could further lower gross domestic product by up to 3% by 2050,” Josefa Leonel Correia Sacko with the African Union Commission writes in the report. “Not only are physical conditions getting worse, but also the number of people being affected is increasing.”

By 2030, up to 118 million extremely poor people, or those living on less than $1.90 a day, “will be exposed to drought, floods and extreme heat in Africa if adequate response measures are not put in place,” Sacko adds.

Already, the U.N. has warned that the Indian Ocean island nation of Madagascar is one where “famine-like conditions have been driven by climate change.” And it says parts of South Sudan are seeing the worst flooding in almost 60 years.

Despite the threats ahead to the African continent, the voices of Africans have been less represented than richer regions at global climate meetings and among the authors of the crucial Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scientific assessments. African participation in IPCC reports has been “extremely low,” according to Future Climate for Africa, a multi-country research program.

The costs ahead are huge. “Overall, Africa will need investments of over $3 trillion in mitigation and adaptation by 2030 to implement its (national climate plans), requiring significant, accessible and predictable inflows of conditional finance,” the WMO’s Taalas said.

“The cost of adapting to climate change in Africa will rise to $50 billion per year by 2050, even assuming the international efforts to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius.”

Climate change threatens more than 

100 mn people in Africa: UN

Issued on: 19/10/2021

Rising sea levels caused by climate change kill trees. 

This photo was taken in Senegal in 2013

 SEYLLOU AFP/File

Geneva (AFP)

More than 100 million extremely poor people in Africa are threatened by accelerating climate change that could also melt away the continent's few glaciers within two decades, a UN report warned on Tuesday.

In a report ahead of the COP 26 climate summit in Glasgow, the UN highlighted Africa's "disproportionate vulnerability" last year from food insecurity, poverty and population displacement.

"By 2030, it is estimated that up to 118 million extremely poor people will be exposed to drought, floods and extreme heat in Africa, if adequate response measures are not put in place," said Josefa Leonel Correia Sacko, commissioner for rural economy and agriculture at the African Union Commission.

The extremely poor are those who live on less than US $1.90 per day, according to the report coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

"In sub-Saharan Africa, climate change could further lower gross domestic product by up to 3% by 2050," Sacko said.

"Not only are physical conditions getting worse, but also the number of people being affected is increasing," she said in the foreword.

WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said that last year Africa saw temperatures continue to increase, "accelerating sea-level rise" as well as extreme weather events like floods, landslides and droughts, all indicators of climate change.

- Disappearing glaciers -

"The rapid shrinking of the last remaining glaciers in eastern Africa, which are expected to melt entirely in the near future, signals the threat of imminent and irreversible change to the Earth system," Taalas said.

Last year Africa's land mass and waters warmed more rapidly than the world average, the report said.

The 30-year warming trend from 1991-2020 was above that of the 1961-1990 period in all of Africa's regions.

The rate in sea level rise along the tropical coasts and the south Atlantic as well as along the Indian Ocean was higher than the world average.

Though too small to serve as significant water reserves, Africa's glaciers have high tourism and scientific value and yet are retreating at a rate higher than the global average.

"If this continues, it will lead to total deglaciation by the 2040s," the report said.

"Mount Kenya is expected to be deglaciated a decade sooner, which will make it one of the first entire mountain ranges to lose glaciers due to human-induced climate change."

The other glaciers in Africa are on the Rwenzori Mountains in Uganda and Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania.

To avoid even higher costs of disaster relief, the WMO urged African countries to invest in "hydrometeorological infrastructure and early warning systems to prepare for escalating high-impact hazardous events."

It backed broadening access to early warning systems and to information on food prices and weather, including with simple text or voice messages informing farmers when to plant, irrigate or fertilize.

"Rapid implementation of African adaptation strategies will spur economic development and generate more jobs in support of economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic," the report said.

The report involved the WMO, the African Union Commission, the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) through the Africa Climate Policy Centre (ACPC), international and regional scientific organisations and United Nations agencies.

© 2021 AFP

Sri Lanka reverses organic farming drive as tea suffers

Issued on: 19/10/2021 

Tea crops have suffered in Sri Lanka due to a lack of organic fertiliser

 Ishara S. KODIKARA AFP

Colombo (AFP)

Sri Lanka on Tuesday backed down from ambitious plans to become the world's first completely organic farming nation, reversing a ban on imports of chemical fertiliser.

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had imposed a total ban on agrochemicals in May, saying he wanted to make Sri Lankan farming 100 percent organic.

Plantations Minister Ramesh Pathirana said Tuesday that the change of course was to help growers of Ceylon tea, exports of which are worth $1.3 billion annually for the island nation.

"Considering the fact that there has been a quality drop in tea that was produced in factories, the government has taken the decision to import sulphate of ammonia," Pathirana told reporters in Colombo.

He said imports of chemical fertiliser would continue until the island was able to produce enough organic fertiliser for local agricultural needs.

Rajapaksa's policy had sparked anger among tea plantation owners and other farmers who warned that a lack of organic fertiliser and lower yields would lead to shortages.

This risked compounding problems for a government already facing an unprecedented shortage of foreign exchange to import fuel, food and medicines.

Last week, the government breached its own ban by importing from Lithuania 30,000 tonnes of potassium chloride, but called it "organic fertiliser".

"We are not a stubborn government," government spokesman Dullas Alahapperuma told reporters at the same briefing with Pathirana.

"We are sensitive to the needs of the people."

© 2021 AFP

Teamsters Update: Yes on New California Law, A Few New Units, One Decertification Looming


FreightWaves
Mon, October 18, 2021


It has been a mixed few months for the Teamsters, but the scale does appear to be weighing more in the direction of positivity from its perspective.

As the union heads toward an election to replace James Hoffa as its president, and with more attention than ever put on the supply chain that the Teamsters is deeply immersed in, it has had some wins and some losses in the short term.

What would likely be its biggest win remains in limbo: the status of the AB5 independent contractor (IC) legislation in California, with its fate awaiting a decision by the Supreme Court on whether to review appellate court decisions that if allowed to stand would greatly restrict the use of ICs in the state. The Teamsters is an Intervenor-Defendant in the case brought by the California Trucking Association, with the primary defendant being the state's Attorney General's office.


It has been a period in which the Teamsters signed two contracts in July with XPO that for the first time recognized the union at two XPO facilities. While the company boasted that the deals were extremely favorable, the fact remains that XPO had resisted Teamster organizing efforts over the years but in 2021 finally put its signature on two contracts.

In the meantime, the work of the union continues. And besides celebrating a settlement in a driver classification case against XPO (NYSE: XPO), the Teamsters recently claimed victory with the signing of a bill by California Gov. Gavin Newsom that ties enforcement of labor laws to economic incentives designed to spur the purchase of cleaner drayage trucks.

The legislation in California, known as AB794, directs the state to restrict subsidies for clean drayage truck purchases to companies that are in compliance with a bevy of state labor laws, including regulations on the definition of a worker as an IC or an employee.

A purchaser of new drayage and short-haul trucks can participate in the state's incentive program "if it can demonstrate that it does not have any applicable law violation at the time of applying for the incentive," the law says.

In a prepared statement, the Teamsters saw the new law primarily through the prism of its key nonwage issue: driver misclassification. In a statement, the Teamsters quoted Ron Herrera, the union's port division director, as saying that AB 794 "will ensure that taxpayers are no longer forced to subsidize trucking companies that habitually misclassify voters."

The legislation says that vehicles that are not compliant with clean vehicle regulations in California are disproportionately operated by misclassified drivers, citing a study from the University of California. "Many of the misclassified employees do not have the financial resources to comply with clean-vehicle regulations," the legislation says.

On other fronts, here's a look at successes and setbacks at the Teamsters:

Representation/Decertification

Since the rapid back-to-back news, which was stunning at the time, that XPO had signed deals with Teamsters locals in Trenton, New Jersey, and Miami, there have been no further XPO-Teamsters contracts.

But the union is entering a time when tight labor markets and renewed union activism are likely to spur a more active battleground. So far, however, it has not turned into a significant list of new representation for the Teamsters.

Over the last few months, the Teamsters are claiming victory in several representation elections, based on announcements posted on the union's website.

One is for 16 drivers at a West Coast concrete construction company called Conco. The Teamsters' statement on the election said the vote among the drivers, who deliver rebar to construction sites, was unanimous. The rest of Conco already is fully unionized by the Teamsters, according to sources with Teamsters Local 174, which represents Conco workers.

In the last few months, the Teamsters also won an election for a 10-employee unit of drivers at US Foods in Delaware voted to be represented by the union.

There also was a successful representation vote covering 28 staff members at GPS Impact, which the Teamsters described as a public affairs company that does strategic communications and advertising for political candidates and advocacy organizations.

As far as other successful new representation votes, a Teamsters spokesman supplied information about winning an election at a Keurig Dr. Pepper plant in Kentucky — 266 workers, so, not an insignificant unit — and at least two companies in the cannabis business.

What is less clear is where the union has lost elections, which aren't publicized by the union. A Google search of Teamsters lost elections in 2021 turns up nothing; the home page of the dissident Teamsters for a Democratic Union, which thrives on pointing out missteps by the national union, doesn't list any either. (Notably, there is not a post on the TDU page regarding the XPO contracts, which could be considered the most significant victory by the current Teamsters management).

But the Teamsters also have needed to fight off decertification actions. Historically, those often occur at companies where the union is often unable to come to a contract agreement with the employer even after the rank and file votes to be represented by the Teamsters or some other union. Union officials often blame company intransigence on the inability to get those contracts, a delay that leads to frustration and in some cases decertification.

The Teamsters face a decertification election on Thursday at an XPO facility in Los Angeles after a group of workers successfully petitioned the National Labor Relations Board for such a vote. But a similar attempt at an XPO facility in Bakersfield, California, appears to have been withdrawn, according to NLRB documents.

A decertification vote also took the Teamsters out at an Airgas facility in Ventura, California, though that is not logistics-related.

Three decertification votes went against the union earlier this year.

Work Stoppages and New Deals

The giant strike against John Deere, the largest industrial walkout in several years, has raised the prospect that a combination of inflation and greater worker leverage with tight labor markets could start to mean walkouts become more common.

The Teamsters currently are in the middle of its second strike against a company called Keolis, which manages the Regional Transportation Commission of Washoe County, home of Reno, Nevada. A strike that started in August ended after about 10 days. A second strike began in early October and has shut bus service in the county. A spokesman for Keolis said negotiations are to resume Monday.

In the logistics field, the most significant Teamsters near-walkout in the past few months appears to have been averting a strike by drivers in July against the Safeway grocery chain.

The union also signed a new contract at a Sysco food distribution warehouse and related operations in Des Plaines, Illinois, in late August, but not without a strike. The walkout that began Aug. 30 was over in just a few days after a new contract was reached and later approved by the workers. Press reports put the number of workers covered by the contract at approximately 125.

While more than 200 truck drivers were not part of the Sysco contract that was in dispute, a statement from the union said the drivers did honor the picket lines of workers and did not continue to make deliveries.

The Teamsters can also cite new contracts at several facilities that could be shown to prospective new members as a sign the union can get things done. For example, workers at USF Reddway overwhelmingly approved a new five-year-pact in June. USF Reddway is a division of Yellow Corp. (NASDAQ: YELL)

There are also new contracts signed outside the logistics field. On its website, just in the last two to three months, the Teamsters touted new contracts signed at a Foster Farms poultry processing plant, a group of school administrators in Philadelphia, construction workers in Las Vegas (a group that includes some truck drivers) and school bus drivers in Niagara Falls, New York. A four-year deal at Boeing in April narrowly averted a strike.

The XPO-GXO Spinoff and A New Target

In a recent online forum sponsored by Deutsche Bank, several members of the management team of XPO's contract logistics spinoff GXO (NYSE: GXO) talked about automation being a key driver for GXO's long-term success. On that call, Angus Tweedy, the company's senior vice president for strategy, said GXO is a "huge expert in deploying labor-saving technologies like automation."

That isn't sitting well with the Teamsters. It has long fought XPO on numerous battlefields and until the recent contracts in Trenton and Miami had never prevailed in negotiations to get XPO to sign a collective bargaining agreement.

Given that, GXO is clearly becoming a new target. The outside public relations agency of the Teamsters, Berlin Rosen, recently sent a blast email highlighting an article highly critical of GXO and its focus on automation.

The article quoted Matt Draper, a national officer of Unite, which is a U.K. union. "From a worker's point of view, it is deeply concerning when any company seems to openly come out and say they wish to automate," Draper said in the article. He also said that unions should look to reach a deal on technology agreements that "take into account the effects of automation on workforces and their communities and that secure options for retraining workforces rather than just replacing them."

A high school is teaching teens to drive big rigs during the nationwide trucker shortage

Heather Schlitz
Mon, October 18, 2021

One high school is offering a truck-driving elective for students amid a widespread trucker shortage and an aging workforce. Mint Images/Getty Images

A California high school is the first non-vocational school to offer a truck-driving course.

The nationwide truck driver shortage is a leading cause of supply-chain issues.

Pay for truck drivers is soaring as retailers scramble to find drivers to deliver inventory.

During a truck-driver shortage that exacerbates the supply-chain issues nationwide, Patterson High School in California is offering an elective class on truck driving to attract young people to careers in the industry.

The school is the first non-vocational high school in the country to offer a class on truck driving, according to NPR, and will offer hands-on training to the school's seniors.

"A lot of [students] who enroll in the course have never considered trucking as a career," instructor Dave Dein told NPR. "Trucking doesn't have a great reputation and it comes with a lot of misconceptions about what exactly a truck driver is."

Some common misconceptions are that the industry is dangerous and that drivers are paid little, Dein told NPR. The course will teach students how to get a commercial license and how to navigate scenarios that professional truck drivers might face on the road.

The high school's program will put students through 180 hours of classroom instruction and 30 hours of lab instruction, where they'll get hands-on experience in trucks, NPR reported. However, if a student wants to pursue truck driving professionally, they'd still need additional training once they turn 18 and must turn 21 before they're eligible to drive trucks across state lines.

Some students are able to nab a commercial driver's license right before they graduate, according to NPR.

Trucker shortages are contributing to empty store shelves and delayed shipping during the supply chain crisis as e-commerce sales and retail demand soar.

The trucking industry was struggling prior to the pandemic, with a downturn in manufacturing leading hundreds of companies to go out of business and tens of thousands of drivers to leave the industry. Many of the drivers who left aren't returning to trucking, and instead are turning to construction and driving for other companies like UberEats and Instacart. Stress and homesickness are also pushing some drivers out of the industry.

Though truckers are raking in higher paychecks during the pandemic as companies struggle to hire, even higher salaries haven't allowed companies to staff up enough to meet the demand from surging e-commerce sales.

'Striketober': American workers battle for power amid labor crunch

Christopher Wilson

·Senior Writer

Mon, October 18, 2021,

Workers in Hollywood have a tentative agreement to stave off a strike that would effectively shut down the entertainment industry as workers across the United States flex their muscle in what activists are calling “Striketober.” The unrest comes as the nation is beset by labor shortages, potentially giving workers more power than they have had in decades when dealing with corporations.

The International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees (IATSE) was set to strike Sunday night but came to an agreement with Hollywood production companies over the weekend, although the deal still needs to be approved by members. More than 60,000 workers, including costumers, makeup artists, camera operators and set builders, were threatening a walkout as they negotiated a living wage for the lowest earners, more rest periods and compensation from streaming productions.

An IATSE banner outside the Costume Designers Guild offices in Burbank, Calif. (Mario Anzuoni/Reuters)

“We went toe-to-toe with some of the richest and most powerful entertainment and tech companies in the world,” IATSE International president Matthew Loeb said in a statement. “Our members stood firm.”

However, many of those IATSE members have expressed dissatisfaction with the deal and said they might vote it down. Work will continue until the ratification vote in a few weeks. The vote earlier this month to authorize the strike was nearly unanimous, just one example of widespread labor militancy across the country.

More than 10,000 John Deere workers in Iowa, Illinois and Kansas began striking last week, citing soaring profits for the company and a 160 percent raise for the CEO as they work to renegotiate their contract. Representatives from the farm equipment manufacturing company and the United Automobile, Aerospace and Agricultural Implement Workers of America returned to negotiations Monday, the fifth day of the strike. Union leadership had reached a tentative contract agreement earlier this month, but it was soundly rejected by workers.

Meanwhile, more than 28,000 health care workers at Kaiser Permanente in California and Oregon voted overwhelmingly this month to go on strike if their contract demands are not met. They would join other, smaller health care strikes already ongoing around the country, including one conducted by more than 2,000 workers in Buffalo, N.Y., who walked out on Oct. 1 seeking better pay, working conditions and staffing.

Employees of managed care company Kaiser Permanente protesting in Baldwin Park, Calif. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)

Workers in a wide range of industries — from breakfast cereal manufacturing to whiskey distilling to home health care to coal mining — have walked out in recent months. Earlier this year, workers at Nabisco and Volvo reached new contracts after strikes. According to the Labor Action Tracker project at Cornell, dozens of strikes have been started in October alone.

“The pandemic pushed a lot of buttons for people,” Todd Vachon, a labor expert at Rutgers University, told Yahoo News. “We saw a lot of unrest around workplace safety ... and even nonunion workers walking off the job and organizing in ways we haven’t seen in a long time.”

Over the last several decades, worker compensation has lagged well behind productivity, and CEO pay has risen sharply in comparison to that of the average worker. But labor activists say pandemic-related shutdowns and relief programs such as the expanded unemployment insurance and stimulus payments gave Americans a chance to assess their situations.

Millions have switched industries, and many who left the workforce and took on child care responsibilities have yet to return. In August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that a record 4.3 million Americans quit their jobs, especially within the service, hospitality and retail sectors. All of this comes during a time when public sympathies have shifted toward labor.

Applicants at a U.S. Postal Service job fair in Los Angeles. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)

According to a September Gallup poll, support for unions is at its highest point since 1965; 68 percent of Americans now say they approve of unions, up 20 points from a low in 2009. That includes 90 percent approval by Democrats and 66 percent approval by independents.

At the federal level, President Biden has consistently touted himself as pro-union, even encouraging Amazon workers to organize earlier this year. Labor activists have called on Congress to pass the Pro Act, a piece of legislation that would make workplace organizing easier, but it’s unlikely to overcome Republican opposition and the Democratic refusal to remove the Senate filibuster.

“People are choosing not to take the jobs that are being offered, so that builds some power and leverage for unions and bargaining that they haven’t had in decades, really, to be honest,” Vachon said.

“[Employers] can bring in replacement workers, and that makes the strike less effective. But when there’s folks refusing to take the jobs being offered, the strike is a lot more powerful of a weapon because it actually shuts down the production and the facility and brings the employer back to the table more quickly.”

In addition to the organized strikes, there have been waves of workers walking off the job in nonunion positions, such as fast food workers protesting allegedly unsafe working conditions and low wages despite being lauded as essential workers.

Activists in Washington rally in support of raising the minimum wage. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

Allynn Umel, director of the Fight for $15 campaign, told Yahoo News that “the hypocrisy between being called ‘essential’ and the need for workers to sacrifice themselves and their families over the course of the pandemic has been fueling a lot of frustrations that workers have been facing.” Low-wage workers, Umel said, “know this is a moment where they want to make it clear that the pre-pandemic status quo of unlivable wages and terrible working conditions are no longer acceptable."

All of these factors have combined to form what former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich called a “national general strike,” as workers potentially gain more power than they have had in decades amid labor shortages and widespread dissatisfaction with income inequality.

Workers, Vachon said, “are withholding their labor because they don’t like what’s being offered, and that’s essentially what a strike is.”

“It’s not organized by any organization, and they’re not all communicating about it across the whole economy. But what’s happening is there is a de facto general strike, and that just increases the economic power of the workers who go on real strikes.”

Bourbon producer signals intent to hire replacement workers SCABS

Kentucky Bourbon Producer Strike

FILE - Bettye Jo Boone, a 30 year employee of Heaven Hill, pickets in front of Heaven Hill Distillery in Bardstown, Ky., Monday, Sept. 13, 2021. Declaring an impasse in contract talks with striking union workers, global spirits producer Heaven Hill said Monday, Oct. 18 it will start hiring permanent replacement workers for bottling and warehouse operations in Kentucky. (Silas Walker/Lexington Herald-Leader via AP, File)More

BRUCE SCHREINER
Mon, October 18, 2021, 6:12 PM·3 min read

Declaring an impasse in contract talks with striking union workers, global spirits producer Heaven Hill said Monday it will start hiring permanent replacement workers for bottling and warehouse operations in Kentucky.

Union leaders responded that they're willing to continue negotiations and accused the company of wanting to replace longtime employees with non-union workers.

About 420 members of United Food and Commercial Workers Local 23D have been on strike for more than five weeks They voted overwhelmingly last month to reject a new five-year contract offer and formed picket lines at Heaven Hill’s operations in Bardstown.

Family-owned and operated Heaven Hill produces Evan Williams, one of the world’s top-selling bourbons. Other brands of Kentucky-based Heaven Hill include Elijah Craig, Henry McKenna, Old Fitzgerald, Larceny and Parker’s Heritage Collection.

The dispute has revolved around health care and worker scheduling issues. The schedule dispute was a sign of the bourbon industry’s growing pains as it tries to keep up with increasing global demand.

Heaven Hill said in a statement Monday that it had negotiated in “good faith” with the union but the sides have been unable to reach an agreement. The company now will begin the process of hiring permanent replacement workers, it said.

“We’ve heard from our employees in the community that they are in favor of the proposed contract terms and eager to return to work,” said Heaven Hill President Max L. Shapira. “Given the long-standing and positive working relationship Heaven Hill has with its employees, it is disappointing we were unable to reach an agreement with union leadership.”

Local union President Matt Aubrey condemned the company's latest move.

“It is stunning that Heaven Hill is refusing to continue negotiations and is resorting to hiring non-union workers to try to push out the hardworking Kentucky men and women who have worked at the company for generations and made it the success it is today,” he said in a statement.

He said the union is willing to meet with company negotiators to continue talks.

Aubrey accused the company of refusing to bargain in good faith, and said the union had filed Unfair Labor Practices charges against Heaven Hill with the National Labor Relations Board.

The company said its operations have continued with “limited interruptions” during the strike due to a “successful contingency plan.”

Workers often spend long careers at Kentucky bourbon distilleries, and the jobs often attract multiple generations of families. Disputes flare up occasionally, and other strikes occurred in recent years at Jim Beam and Four Roses — other iconic names in the bourbon sector.

The bourbon industry has been on a long upward trajectory.

Combined U.S. sales for bourbon, Tennessee whiskey and rye whiskey rose 8.2%, or $327 million, to $4.3 billion in 2020, despite plunging sales from bars and restaurants because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States reported early this year.

Kentucky distilleries produce 95% of the world’s bourbon supply, according to the Kentucky Distillers’ Association.