How will humans survive a global catastrophe?

An analysis of China and Western Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic shows that creating a safe refuge may be an option

Peer-Reviewed Publication

SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS

One suggested way to save humankind in the event of a deadly pandemic or other extreme global catastrophe is establishing a safe refuge – on an island or in such far-out places as the moon or under water -- where a portion of the human population can stay alive. 

A new paper published in the journal Risk Analysis suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates that a refuge is a viable concept and may not need to be geographically isolated or in an exotic location. In their analysis, the authors explore how and why both China and Western Australia served as successful refuges during the first two years of the pandemic. 

Seth Baum, a geographer and executive director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute in Washington, D.C., and Vanessa Adams, a geographer at the University of Tasmania, conducted a case study of China and Western Australia, both political jurisdictions that share their borders with others yet managed to keep COVID-19 infections low. From March 2020 to January 2022, China’s estimated cases per 100,000 people were 1,358 compared to 98,556 in the United States and 142,365 in India. Western Australia’s official cases were 48.8.  

Previous research has shown that island nations like Iceland, Australia, and New Zealand are good candidates for a refuge -- based on their success in keeping COVID-19 infections low in the first nine months of the pandemic. (A pandemic refuge is a place with low medical risk where a pathogen has not spread significantly.) The new study, covering nearly two years of the pandemic, suggests that geographic isolation (or being on an island) is not a prerequisite for a pandemic refuge. “China is a very clear case in point,” says Baum. “It has succeeded despite having the world’s longest land border.” 

In their paper, Baum and Adams examine both the differences and similarities between China and Western Australia. China is authoritarian, collectivist, and heavily populated in the most populous region of the world. Western Australia is democratic, individualist, and sparsely populated in one of the most remote regions of the world. 

Yet the two jurisdictions are similar in other, important ways. Both have a high degree of centralization and a high capacity for self-isolation -- China via its authoritarian government, Western Australia via its social isolation and strong economy driven by a booming mining industry. Both also have strong in-group cohesion and have been highly motivated to avoid pathogen spread. Both China and Western Australia have also maintained extensive trade with outside places throughout the pandemic. 

“This is encouraging because it suggests that pandemic refuges can provide a high degree of economic support for outside populations during pandemics, an important element for achieving the global objective of refuges – the continuity of civilization,” says Baum. 

“Pandemic refuges are a risk management policy concept worthy of serious consideration,” adds Adams, “alongside other public health measures such as vaccines and physical distancing.”

###

About SRA

The Society for Risk Analysis is a multidisciplinary, interdisciplinary, scholarly, international society that provides an open forum for all those interested in risk analysis. SRA was established in 1980 and has published Risk Analysis: An International Journal, the leading scholarly

India’s relic forests reveal a new species of leopard gecko

Peer-Reviewed Publication

PENSOFT PUBLISHERS

 

VIDEO: PAINTED LEOPARD GECKO ( EUBLEPHARIS PICTUS) view more 

CREDIT: SANJAY KUMAR & AVINASH CH.

Deep in the forests of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh in India lives a colourful gecko species that only now revealed its true identity. Meet Eublepharis pictus, also known as the Painted Leopard Gecko.

In 2017, researchers Zeeshan A. Mirza of the National Centre for Biological Sciences in Bangalore and C. Gnaneswar of the Madras Crocodile Bank Trust in Chennai found a gecko in a water tank near a temple in Vishakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, during a field survey. Back then, they identified it as belonging to the East Indian Leopard Gecko species (Eublepharis hardwickii).

“The species appears to be common in the hill forests, but its distinctness was only confirmed by other researchers,” Zeeshan Mirza explains.

In a phylogenetic study, where they looked for the evolutionary history and relationships within and between the leopard gecko species in the genus Eublepharis, the researchers found that what had until then been considered a southern population of East Indian Leopard Gecko might be distinct enough to represent a new species.

Once they had molecular data they could work with, the team made morphological comparisons between the species, looking at specimens across natural history museums.

“These lizards have conserved morphologies and most species are quite similar in general appearance,” Zeeshan Mirza elaborates. “With a few characters based on the number of specimens examined, we described the species and named it the Painted Leopard Gecko – in Latin, Eublepharis pictus, for its colouration.” They published their discovery in the open-access scientific journal Evolutionary Systematics.

With this new addition, the gecko genus Eublepharis now contains 7 species. Two of them - E. pictus and E. satpuraensis - were described by Zeeshan Mirza.

The Painted Leopard Gecko measures 11.7 cm in length, which is somewhat large for a leopard gecko. The Brahmani River, which runs through the Eastern Ghats, separates it geographically from the East Indian Leopard Gecko, with which it shares a lot of similar traits.

The new species lives in dry evergreen forests mixed with scrub and meadows. It is strictly nocturnal, actively foraging along trails in the forest after dusk. While looking for food, it has been observed licking surfaces as it moves, which suggests it might use its tongue as a sensory organ.

Even though the Painted Leopard Gecko seems to be widespread across the state of Odisha and northern Andhra Pradesh, the researchers worry about its conservation. “The species is collected for the pet trade and even now may be smuggled illegally,” they write in their paper, which is why they refrain from giving out the exact locations where it may be found.

The authors believe the species would stand more of a chance against humans if more people knew it was actually harmless. To protect it, they suggest listing it as Near Threatened based on IUCN conservation prioritisation criteria, until more is known about the size of its populations.

Further research may also encourage better protection of biodiversity in the area. “The Eastern Ghats are severely under-surveyed, and dedicated efforts will help recognize it as a biodiversity hotspot,” the authors conclude.

 

Original source:

Mirza ZA, Gnaneswar C (2022) Description of a new species of leopard geckos, Eublepharis Gray, 1827 from Eastern Ghats, India with notes on Eublepharis hardwickii Gray, 1827. Evolutionary Systematics 6(1): 77-88. https://doi.org/10.3897/evolsyst.6.83290

---

JOURNAL

Evolutionary Systematics

DOI

10.3897/evolsyst.6.83290 

ARTICLE TITLE

Description of a new species of leopard geckos, Eublepharis Gray, 1827 from Eastern Ghats, India with notes on Eublepharis hardwickii Gray, 1827

University of Kentucky study: Black overdose death rate doubles in Kentucky

UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY

PrintEmail App

image: The rate of deadly drug overdoses among Black people in Kentucky more than doubled from 2016 to 2020, according to a new analysis by University of Kentucky researchers. view more 

Credit: Darwin Brandis, iStock / Getty Images Plus

LEXINGTON, Ky. (June 1, 2022) — The rate of deadly drug overdoses among Black people in Kentucky more than doubled from 2016 to 2020, according to a new analysis by University of Kentucky researchers.

The Black overdose mortality rate increased by nearly 117% — from 21.2 deaths for every 100,000 people in 2016 to 46.0 per 100,000 in 2020, according to the research published in the journal Public Health Reports.

Using Kentucky death certificates and postmortem toxicology reports from 2016-2020, the team of researchers who are part of UK’s HEALing Communities Study (HCS) evaluated changes in drug overdose mortality for various racial and ethnic groups. The study shows that about 80% of drug overdose deaths among all racial and ethnic groups in Kentucky involved opioids.

“Historically, opioid overdose death rates have been disproportionately higher among white individuals, but the new study shows that the rates for both white and Black individuals in Kentucky are now nearly the same,” said study co-author Svetla Slavova, Ph.D., associate professor in the UK College of Public Health who is a part of the HCS research team and a faculty member in the Kentucky Injury Prevention and Research Center. “This reflects national data, which show that disparities in opioid overdose deaths continue to worsen for Black people.”

The shifting demographics are helping to inform drug overdose prevention efforts in Kentucky, including UK’s HCS aimed at reducing opioid-involved overdose deaths in 16 intervention communities across the Commonwealth.

“Black Kentuckians who are at risk for drug overdose may face additional barriers to accessing treatment,” said Sharon Walsh, Ph.D., the principal investigator for UK's HCS and director of UK’s Center on Drug and Alcohol Research. “This study underscores the importance of our efforts to expand treatment and harm reduction services in Kentucky’s communities of color.”

HCS has been expanding efforts to reach and engage people in communities of color through culturally tailored interventions and partnerships with community organizations. The goal is to connect people to evidence-based practices proven to reduce opioid overdose, including increasing access to and treatment with FDA-approved medications for opioid use disorder (including buprenorphine and methadone), overdose education and distribution of naloxone, a life-saving medication that rapidly reverses an opioid overdose.

The study reflects other national trends, including a rise in overdose deaths driven by illegally manufactured fentanyl. Fentanyl was identified as a contributing substance in more than 70% of drug overdose deaths among all ethnicities in Kentucky in 2020.

While fentanyl is linked to most overdose deaths, the study reports a rise in the involvement of stimulants, such as methamphetamines and cocaine. From 2016 to 2020, the number of psychostimulant-involved drug overdose deaths increased 513% among Black individuals and 191% among whites.

The study authors note that more research is needed to fully understand the social, cultural and illicit market circumstances driving these rapid trend changes as well as drivers of health inequity that may be contributing to drug overdose deaths among various racial and ethnic groups.

Research reported in this publication was supported by funding from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention under Award Number 5 NU17CE924971-03, by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration under Award Number HHSF223201810183C under Broad Agency Announcement Number 17-00123, and by the National Institutes of Health through the Helping to End Addiction Long-term Initiative under Award Number UM1DA049406. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Food and Drug Administration or the National Institutes of Health. 

The University of Kentucky is increasingly the first choice for students, faculty and staff to pursue their passions and their professional goals. In the last two years, Forbes has named UK among the best employers for diversity, and INSIGHT into Diversity recognized us as a Diversity Champion four years running. UK is ranked among the top 30 campuses in the nation for LGBTQ* inclusion and safety. UK has been judged a “Great College to Work for" three years in a row, and UK is among only 22 universities in the country on Forbes' list of "America's Best Employers."  We are ranked among the top 10 percent of public institutions for research expenditures — a tangible symbol of our breadth and depth as a university focused on discovery that changes lives and communities. And our patients know and appreciate the fact that UK HealthCare has been named the state’s top hospital for five straight years. Accolades and honors are great. But they are more important for what they represent: the idea that creating a community of belonging and commitment to excellence is how we honor our mission to be not simply the University of Kentucky, but the University for Kentucky.

Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases

Engineers uncover secret ‘thinking’ behind dandelions’ seed dispersal

Peer-Reviewed Publication

IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON

Knowing what causes dandelions to spread could help us understand how the plants respond to climate change, and could even help us design new ‘soft’ robots. 

Known for their fluffiness and uncanny ability to help children tell the time, dandelions provide essential early-Spring food for pollinators like bees, birds, butterflies, and moths. 

Their seeds are some of the best flyers in nature, catching the wind and spreading as far as 100 kilometres. Part of how they do this is by tuning their flight depending on the weather.  

Each dandelion seed is tethered by a thin tube to around 100 bristles, which form the parachute-like structure. When seeds break free from the flower head, these bundles of hairs catch the wind and carry their seeds. This hairy parachute closes when the air is humid, which often means the wind is weak. In drier, more windy conditions, dandelions widen their parachutes to better catch the wind so the seeds can fly freely.  

However until now, nobody knew how they sense and respond to their environment so effectively. 

Now an international team including Imperial researchers has uncovered the biomechanical ‘decisions’ behind dandelion seed dispersal.  

Their work, published in Nature Communications, found the seed-carrying parachutes open and close using something like actuators – devices that convert signals into movement – without using energy.  

The centre of the parachutes senses the humidity of their immediate environment by absorbing water molecules from the air. Responding to these humidity signals, they ‘decide’ to either open their parachutes and fly away, or to close their parachutes and stay put. 

They also found that the actuator has a unique radial, tube-like design to which the parachute hairs are attached to ensure simultaneous movement. The actuator changes its shape to either open or close their parachutes. 

Imperial author Dr Naomi Nakayama of the Department of Bioengineering who led the work said: “Our findings reveal how the dandelion ensures the survival of its species by making perhaps the most important decision in a plant’s life – to stay or go seek a better habitat.” 

Researchers at Imperial, the Universities of Edinburgh, Oxford, Lyon and Ecole Polytechnique de Paris, investigated this using their combination of expertise in plant biology and mechanical engineering. 

They placed dandelions into a bespoke, humidity-controlled chamber to study the effects of humidity on the parachute base. They measured humidity’s effects on the actuator using multiple imaging techniques, including an environmental scanning electron microscope.  

They found that parachute opening is modulated by the level of humidity in the atmosphere: higher humidity triggered swelling in the actuator and mechanical movement of hairs upwards, which closed the parachutes. Some regions of the actuator swelled noticeably, whereas others, such as the vasculature, barely changed. They observed that the actuator shape change was caused by uptake and release of water droplets, creating a crease in the area the parachute hairs are attached. 

They then built a structural computer model of the actuator accounting for these differences and for forces associated with changes in hydration level. Their model agreed quantitatively with most observations, which indicated that differences in capacity to absorb water is key to actuation and therefore parachute opening and closing. 

Plant structures can serve as important inspiration for soft robotics as, like plants, these robots don’t use joints or rigid parts to move appendages. Finding out how dandelion parachutes respond to their environment by moving many appendages simultaneously could help engineers create robots that move multiple fingers and arms with very simple yet functional designs. The way the dandelion actuator changes shape in some regions but not others can also teach us about mechanisms of shaping and movement in soft robots and biological tissues. 

Dandelion dispersal greatly influences urban and rural ecosystems, and knowing how their flight respond to the environment helps us predict the effects of changing climate.   

Dr Nakayama added: “Our work is a great example of what the natural world can teach us about interacting with our environments. It’s also a fantastic piece of multidisciplinary collaboration: bringing varying disciplines together to spark new ways of investigating biological and engineering problems.” 

“Dandelion pappus morphing is actuated by radially patterned material swelling” by Madeleine Seale, Annamaria Kiss, Simone Bovio, Ignazio Maria Viola, Enrico Mastropaolo, Arezki Boudaoud & Naomi Nakayama, published May 2022 in Nature Communications. 

Research shows how Gulf of Mexico escaped ancient mass extinction

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN

 

IMAGE: THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FLOWING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ACCORDING TO RESEARCHERS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS INSTITUTE FOR GEOPHYSICS, RIVER SEDIMENTS AND OCEAN CURRENTS HELPED SIMPLE SEA LIFE IN THE GULF SURVIVE A DEEP-OCEAN MASS EXTINCTION 56 MILLION YEARS AGO. view more 

CREDIT: U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY

An ancient bout of global warming 56 million years ago that acidified oceans and wiped-out marine life had a milder effect in the Gulf of Mexico, where life was sheltered by the basin’s unique geology – according to research by the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics (UTIG). 

Published in the journal Marine and Petroleum Geology, the findings not only shed light on an ancient mass extinction, but could also help scientists determine how current climate change will affect marine life and aid in efforts to find deposits of oil and gas.

And although the Gulf of Mexico is very different today, UTIG geochemist Bob Cunningham, who led the research, said that valuable lessons can be drawn about climate change today from how the Gulf was impacted in the past.

“This event known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum or PETM is very important to understand because it's pointing towards a very powerful, albeit brief, injection of carbon into the atmosphere that’s akin to what’s happening now,” he said. 

Cunningham and his collaborators investigated the ancient period of global warming and its impact on marine life and chemistry by studying a group of mud, sand, and limestone deposits found across the Gulf.

They sifted through rock chips brought up during oil and gas drilling and found an abundance of microfossils from radiolarians – a type of plankton— that had surprisingly thrived in the Gulf during the ancient global warming. They concluded that a steady supply of river sediments and circulating ocean waters had helped radiolarians and other microorganisms survive even while Earth’s warming climate became more hostile to life. 

“In a lot of places, the ocean was absolutely uninhabitable for anything,” said UTIG biostratigrapher Marcie Purkey Phillips. “But we just don’t seem to see as severe an effect in the Gulf of Mexico as has been seen elsewhere.”

CAPTION

Examples of radiolarians, a type of microplankton. These tiny lifeforms need normal salinity seawater with plenty of nutrients including silica to grow and maintain their glassy shells. Researchers at the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics found fossilized radiolarians in geologic samples dating back 56 million years, proving that life persisted in the Gulf of Mexico despite global warming that left many oceans barren.

CREDIT

U.S. Geological Survey

The reasons for that go back to geologic forces reshaping North America at the time. About 20 million years before the ancient global warming, the rise of the Rocky Mountains had redirected rivers into the northwest Gulf of Mexico – a tectonic shift known as the Laramide uplift – sending much of the continent’s rivers through what is now Texas and Louisiana into the Gulf’s deeper waters. 

When global warming hit and North America became hotter and wetter, the rain-filled rivers fire-hosed nutrients and sediments into the basin, providing plenty of nutrients for phytoplankton and other food sources for the radiolarians. 

The findings also confirm that the Gulf of Mexico remained connected to the Atlantic Ocean and the salinity of its waters never reached extremes – a question that until now had remained open. According to Phillips, the presence of radiolarians alone – which only thrive in nutrient-rich water that’s no saltier than seawater today – confirmed that the Gulf’s waters did not become too salty. Cunningham added that the organic content of sediments decreased farther from the coast, a sign that deep currents driven by the Atlantic Ocean were sweeping the basin floor. 

The research accurately dates closely related geologic layers in the Wilcox Group (a set of rock layers that house an important petroleum system), a feat that can aid in efforts to find undiscovered oil and gas reserves in formations that are the same age. At the same time, the findings are important for researchers investigating the effects of today’s global warming because they show how the water and ecology of the Gulf changed during a very similar period of climate change long ago.

CAPTION

A map of the Gulf of Mexico showing rivers that were flowing into the Gulf 56 million years ago. The colored circles mark the location of geologic samples. The orange arrows mark river outlets. The data was used in a study by the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics to investigate the climate impact of ancient global warming on the Gulf and its implications for the basin’s energy reserves.

CREDIT

University of Texas Institute for Geophysics

The study compiled geologic samples from 36 industry wells dotted across the Gulf of Mexico, plus a handful of scientific drilling expeditions including the 2016 UT Austin-led investigation of the Chicxulub asteroid impact, which led to the extinction of non-avian dinosaurs.

For John Snedden, a study coauthor and senior research scientist at UTIG, the study is a perfect example of industry data being used to address important scientific questions.

“The Gulf of Mexico is a tremendous natural archive of geologic history that’s also very closely surveyed,” he said. “We’ve used this very robust database to examine one of the highest thermal events in the geologic record, and I think it’s given us a very nuanced view of a very important time in Earth’s history.”

Snedden is also program director of UT’s Gulf Basin Depositional Synthesis, an industry-funded project to map the geologic history of the entire Gulf basin, including the current research. UTIG is a research unit of UT Jackson School of Geosciences.

---

JOURNAL

Marine and Petroleum Geology

DOI

10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2022.105634 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Productivity and organic carbon trends through the Wilcox Group in the deep Gulf of Mexico: Evidence for ventilation during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

1-Jun-2022

Automated drones could scare birds off agricultural fields

Peer-Reviewed Publication

WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY

 

IMAGE: A MANUALLY OPERATED WSU DRONE FLIES OVER A VINEYARD DURING TESTS FOR BIRD DETERRENCE AND FRUIT DAMAGE ASSESSMENT. view more 

CREDIT: WSU AGRICULTURAL AUTOMATION AND ROBOTICS LAB

PROSSER, Wash. - In the future, cameras could spot blackbirds feeding on grapes in a vineyard and launch drones to drive off the avian irritants, then return to watch for the next invading flock. All without a human nearby.

A Washington State University research team has developed just such a system, which they detail in a study published in the journal Computer and Electronics in Agriculture. The system is designed to have automated drones available to patrol 24 hours a day to deter pest birds, like European starlings or crows, that cost growers millions of dollars a year in stolen or ruined fruit.

“Growers don’t really have a good tool they can rely on for deterring pest birds at an affordable price,” said Manoj Karkee, associate professor in WSU’s Department of Biological Systems Engineering and the study’s corresponding author. “With further refinement and industry partnerships, this system could work.”

For the study, the team ran two separate tests: detecting birds and deploying drones automatically. Over a few years, Karkee’s team developed a camera system and algorithm that would find birds and count them as they flew in and out of fields.

The team customized very small drones and deployed them for flight tests on small plots with simulated birds.

Technologically, the system resembles drone package delivery systems. It will be several years before this particular technology would be commercially available for growers because there are still several hurdles, including making sure it works at scale, complies with federal drone regulations, and continues to deter birds even if drones are commonly flying around.

“Birds are really clever,” said Karkee, who is also affiliated with WSU’s Center for Precision & Automated Agricultural Systems. “They often find ways around deterrents. We don’t want a system that only lasts for a few months or years before they stop being scared off.”

For now, the birds are scared off just by the motion and whirring noises made by drones. But Karkee said that sounds, like distress calls or predatory bird noises, could be added. Builders could even design special drones for the job.

“We could make drones look like predators, or have reflective propellers that are really shiny,” he said. “All of these working together would likely keep birds away from those vineyards and fields. We need to research that over multiple years to make sure.”

The automation research is the third in a series of three studies concerning drones and bird pests. The first showed that manually operated drones, doing random flights, successfully drive off or keep birds away from vineyards. They found that drones reduced bird counts four-fold.

The second project showed the impact driving off the birds can have on crop yield. Karkee’s team followed up on the fields where they manually drove birds off. Those fields had around 50% reduction in damaged fruits.

Karkee plans to meet with growers, technology companies, and other stakeholders to start next steps on working toward a commercially available automated drone system.

“It takes time,” he said. “But the results so far are exciting. We’re looking forward to doing more work on this project.”

MAYBE SOME BIRDS BUT NOT ALL BIRDS... RAVEN ATTACKS DRONE

---

JOURNAL

Computers and Electronics in Agriculture

DOI

10.1016/j.compag.2022.106972 

ARTICLE TITLE

Automated execution of a pest bird deterrence system using a programmable unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV

EAGLE HUNTS DRONE

 

Over 70% of mass shootings in developed countries happen in the US, international analysis shows

816 deaths from mass shootings in the US between 1998-2019, which is the only country to have such an incident every single year

Peer-Reviewed Publication

TAYLOR & FRANCIS GROUP

Mass shootings in the US account for 73% of all 139 incidents occurring in developed countries between 1998 to 2019. During this time, 62% of all 1,318 fatalities from the attacks also happened in the states.

These are the findings of a shocking new study, published in the peer-reviewed International Journal of Comparative and Applied Criminal Justice.

It shows some 101 attacks occurred in the US during this period, leading to 816 deaths.
In comparison, France had the next highest number of mass shootings, with eight; and these lead to 179 deaths.

Half of the 36 developed countries studied have not had a single mass shooting in the last 22 years, and only five had more than two incidents. In stark contrast, the US has a mass shooting every single year – it is the only country to do so.

The research has been carried out by a leading expert on such confrontations, Assistant Professor, Dr Jason R Silva, from William Paterson University, who has analyzed the differences in characteristics between US mass shootings and all other countries – with mass shootings being classified here as “a public incident involving four or more fatalities, with at least some victims chosen indiscriminately”.

Emerging patterns show:

• 91% of perpetrators were born in the country they attacked
• 99% were male
• One-third had military experience
• 7% had a history of law enforcement experience

The study is calling on further research to help inform policy on the issue. And Dr Silva, based at the University’s Department of Sociology and Criminal Justice, says it is important to learn lessons from incidents for future approaches.

“Many developed countries instituted policies in the immediate aftermath of an attack that may have contributed to stopping the problem, and this can provide lessons for future approaches to US mass shooting intervention and prevention.

“For example, in the wake of three shootings in Finland between 2007-2009, the Finnish government issued new firearm guidelines for handguns and revolvers, which were the primary firearms during these attacks. Applicants for handgun licences are now required to be active members of a gun club and vetted by their doctor and police.”

By analyzing openly accessible data from both developed and developing nations internationally, as well as reviewing previous research on mass shootings, Dr Silva was able to paint a picture of the differences and similarities in the characteristics of mass shootings across the world. Crucially, he is also able to provide insight into the type of person carrying out the attacks; the details of the incident; and, indeed, the motives of why they took place – if such an explanation could be found.

Overall, it was shown that in developed countries (including the US), shootings were more likely to be carried out by those with ideological motives, and fame-seeking motives. As well as schools, attacks in open spaces were also common – and most incidents involved handguns and shotguns.

Looking at the US separately, shooters were more likely to use more than one firearm. The motivation of their attack was also distinct from other countries, with perpetrators facing employment and financial issues, as well as relationship problems.

“American mass shooters were more likely to attack factories, warehouses, and offices than perpetrators in all other combined countries. While individuals from all countries suffer from strain, this particular strain is largely a US mass shooting motive,” explains Dr Silva.

“Security measures should therefore focus on target hardening in high-risk workplaces, modelling other location-based intervention strategies that have effectively decreased incidents and casualties.

“Relationship problems present another distinct form of strain contributing to US mass shootings. This is not to say that relationship problems do not exist in other countries or that they do not result in violence. In fact, many other countries have much higher rates of intimate partner violence and homicide. However, it is uniquely American that relationship problems end in mass shootings: where individuals outside of those contributing to relationship problems were also, or instead, targeted at random.”

In developing countries, mass shootings were more likely to involve perpetrators with a military or police history, and to occur within their place of work – so, an “attack from within”. 64% of all mass shootings involved this type of incident. A motive was often “difficult” to source from within publicly available documents though.

Comparing and summarizing, Dr Silva added: “Mass shootings are a uniquely American problem, particularly in relation to other developed countries.”

His research disqualified incidents involving profit-driven criminal activity, state-sponsored violence, and familicide, as well as incidents involving organized terrorism and/or battles over sovereignty. This was because, he states, “it does not provide a valuable comparison with the US – the primary focus of this study – the US has never had mass shootings rooted in organized terrorism and/or battles over sovereignty”.

Limitations of the research include its “reliance” on open-source data, which “means it is impossible to know if all cases have been captured” – an issue greatest in developing countries with limited data and non-English language news outlets hindering the ability to search and find information.

---

JOURNAL

International Journal of Comparative and Applied Criminal Justice

DOI

10.1080/01924036.2022.2052126 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Global mass shootings: comparing the United States against developed and developing countries