Pierre Poilievre's controversy-ridden rise to front-runner status in the Conservative Party leadership race
Pierre Poilievre has made a name for himself by taking a strong stance on issues many Canadians find divisive. His steadfast support of the so-called “Freedom Convoy” and other related groups, including participation in a march with a prominent anti-vaccine-mandate figure, have made him a fixture in headlines and a controversial political figure.
Now, his tactic of leveraging divisive, polarizing issues has catapulted Poilievre into position as front-runner in the Conservative Party of Canada’s leadership race, says one political scientist.
The Carleton MP’s politics revolve around “riling up the base” using “highly partisan rhetoric,” and it appears this strategy is paying off, Max Cameron, a professor of political science at the University of British Columbia, told Canada’s National Observer.
Fifty-seven per cent of Conservative voters have a favourable impression of Poilievre, according to an Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News between Aug. 29 and 31. A sample of 1,001 Canadians aged 18 and over were interviewed for the survey, which saw Poilievre’s popularity climb eight points compared to a similar poll conducted in mid-July. Jean Charest is viewed favourably by 38 per cent of Conservative voters, down seven points, and MP Leslyn Lewis sits at 32 per cent.
The results of the leadership race are to be announced Sept. 10. Besides Poilievre, Charest and Lewis, former Ontario MPP Roman Baber and Conservative MP Scott Aitchison are also in the running.
Poilievre made headlines in recent weeks after a photo surfaced of him shaking hands with Jeremy Mackenzie, founder of a far-right group known as Diagolon, This is one of many controversial moments for the leadership candidate that has elicited both support and outrage from Canadians.
Poilievre did not respond to requests for comment by deadline.
Because politicians meet lots of people, Cameron said he is cautious about making inferences around photos, but noted Poilievre’s divisive strategy is premised on mobilizing a “group of supporters who really are passionate about some change that they want to see.”
On June 30, Poilievre also marched alongside James Topp, a Canadian soldier charged after speaking out against COVID-19 vaccine requirements while in uniform. Topp, who marched from Vancouver to Ottawa to protest COVID-19 vaccine mandates, has also appeared on Mackenzie’s podcast.
Vaccine mandates have been a key aspect of Poilievre’s messaging, and he even used the so-called “Freedom Convoy” that occupied downtown Ottawa for more than three weeks to shoot a promotional video.
His support of the convoy is not unique. Other MPs have taken the same stance, and some, including fellow leadership candidate Lewis, met with Topp and other key convoy organizers.
In Poilievre’s promotional video, he said the convoy represents "the people who want to stand and speak for their freedoms" and "those that our government and our media have insulted and left behind."
This summer, Poilievre has also decried the work of journalists and the mainstream media. On May 9, Poilievre tweeted that he won seven elections by going around liberal media and speaking “directly to Canadians.”
His campaign put out a statement in response to questions posed by a Global News reporter, referring to the questions as “an attack” and accusing “unprofessional journalists” of trying to set “disingenuous traps” to attack opponents.
Anti-vaccine-mandate attitudes, meeting with far-right organizers or skipping a debate are nothing new for the Conservative Party, but Cameron said Poilievre’s opposition to the World Economic Forum is unusual.
“Historically, that's been the sort of thing that Conservatives have embraced,” he explained. “[Former prime minister Stephen] Harper would go to those, and they're sort of a staple of the kind of corporate view of the world.
“It's not unusual to see people on the left criticizing the World Economic Forum … but for somebody on the right to criticize it, that tells us that there's a big pivot happening in the Conservative movement.”
Poilievre has established himself as a Conservative “bulldog” through these types of defining moments, but his legislative track record also speaks volumes, said Cameron.
“Back in 2014, he, as a member of the Harper government, was instrumental in introducing a series of changes to the Canada Elections Act,” Cameron explained.
The proposed changes (none of which are in place today) sought to impose a set of restrictions on voting, change campaign finance rules, raise the bar on voter identification, eliminate vouching and limit Elections Canada’s ability to enforce the Elections Act and the activities it could undertake to encourage participation, he said.
A group of more than 150 political scientists, including Cameron, voiced concerns about the proposed changes. He says this was one of the rare times a majority of the political science community spoke with a unified voice.
“That was my first sense of who Pierre Poilievre is, and it struck me that this was the kind of partisanship and politicization of electoral institutions that we have been seeing down south, and we know what the consequences of that kind of politicization are,” said Cameron.
To Cameron, Poilievre’s record on this issue as minister of state for democratic reform suggests his vision for Canada’s democracy is not inclusive, doesn’t encourage the broadest possible participation and doesn’t honour and respect non-partisan institutions.
“Then you add on to that, you know, the pandering to the truckers convoy, and so forth. And I think that the picture becomes pretty clear.”
Typically, Conservative leadership candidates draw support from the right during leadership contests and then tack towards centre for federal elections to appeal to a wider voter base, like former leader Erin O’Toole did before being ousted, said Cameron. But if he wins, Poilievre may be the exception, he said.
It’s impossible to know what strategies are unfolding in Poilievre’s camp, but “part of his appeal to his base, at least, is the perception that he actually means what he says,” and with strong stances on divisive issues, it would be hard to walk back, said Cameron.
If he wins the leadership contest, Cameron thinks it’s likely Poilievre will stick to his guns and strong reputation as a Conservative “bulldog” in the hopes it's enough to win a federal election.
Natasha Bulowski, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, Canada's National Observer
Opposition MPs voice concern at possibility of Pierre Poilievre leading the federal Conservatives
The Conservative Party of Canada will name its new leader Saturday evening, and the results will have serious implications for all Canadians, Liberal and NDP MPs say.
“It has been a race with a lot of focusing on making the fears of our country bigger and not looking at progressive ways to help one another move along in this country,” NDP MP and party whip Rachel Blaney told Canada’s National Observer.
The winner will be named at Ottawa’s Shaw Centre, and although Carleton MP Pierre Poilievre is the front-runner based on recent polling, Blaney said, “You can never be sure until the final ballots are cast and counted.”
Poilievre is up against former Quebec premier Jean Charest, Ontario MP Leslyn Lewis, former Ontario MPP Roman Baber and Conservative MP Scott Aitchison.
Of the candidates, Poilievre has the most MP endorsements, with 63 to Charest’s 16, according to their respective websites. In B.C., 10 of the province’s 13 Conservative MPs endorse Poilievre.
In an emailed statement to Canada’s National Observer, Charest’s campaign manager Chris Rougier said: “We knew we were up against a movement that had been building towards this moment long before Jean entered the race. We are feeling cautiously optimistic but agree, no matter the outcome, we need to move forward as a united Conservative Party to bring an end to Trudeau’s politics of division.”
In an interview, Liberal MP Hedy Fry told Canada’s National Observer that as far as she’s concerned, the race is still up in the air but expressed concern about the potential for Poilievre to take the helm of the Conservative Party.
The Vancouver Centre MP said Poilievre supporting the so-called “Freedom Convoy” and encouraging its revolutionary attitude and the sort of people looking at violence and overthrowing an elected government is troubling to her, both as an MP and a Canadian.
“How do you want to be a prime minister when you don't want to obey the rule of law?” she asked.
Poilievre did not respond to requests for comment by deadline.
Poilievre’s adversarial style is nothing new in the House of Commons, but there is potential for the debate to devolve even further, which will undermine Canadians’ trust in parliamentarians and institutions, Fry said.
“They're just going to think that all we ever care about is not what is best for them and for the future of the country, but what's best for the political decision-makers,” said Fry. “And I think that is going to be quite devastating for the country and where we're heading.” If Poilievre does become leader of the party, Fry hopes he will change tack and “lead with a certain amount of dignity.”
“The signals from his leadership race so far have not been encouraging in terms of that kind of stability and the kind of leader we're looking for in a democracy,” she said.
Rather than working together to improve the lives of Canadians, Poilievre takes a confrontational stance focused on “getting a good hit,” said Blaney.
“What we keep hearing from him is that he cares, but he's actually not offering anything that is going to make a difference.”
Related video: What Pierre Poilievre's leadership could mean for the Conservative Party's political future Duration 2:08 View on Watch
Blaming the federal government for inflation — which, Blaney emphasized, is a worldwide issue — does nothing to help Canadians make ends meet. Poilievre has yet to stand up to industries and companies raking in excess profits while people struggle to put food on the table, she said.
Right now, Blaney says Canadians need leaders who will work together. She pointed to former premier of Saskatchewan and federal NDP leader Tommy Douglas working with former Liberal prime minister Lester B. Pearson to make Canada’s universal publicly funded health-care system a reality. Poilievre, on the other hand, is about fragmenting the country and separating people, said Blaney.
She said his “very close links” to parts of “the [Freedom] Convoy, which were really focused on white supremacy,” are a serious concern.
“We saw what happened when our neighbours had a leader that really connected closely to the right wing of the country.”
A July 7 statement from Poilievre’s campaign said he “has stated unequivocally that ‘any and all racism is evil and must be stopped.’”
Anger is something that can be used or misused to promote action — it can be messy, but things get done and people can be mobilized and satisfied, Liberal MP Ken Hardie told Canada’s National Observer in an interview.
But, he warned, much of the anger we’re seeing is focused on individuals, not issues.
“This is where it gets destructive. This is what breeds hate,” said Hardie. “And that is clearly a growing issue. It's a growing issue for journalists, especially women journalists.”
Hardie says he has also had to take extra measures to keep himself safe.
He is also of the mind that Canada needs a strong Conservative Party but is unsure what will come out in the wash.
“We have an individual who has been quite critical of people in his own caucus, and you wonder if, in fact, there's going to be a significant party left after this vote if Mr. Poilievre becomes the leader,” said Hardie.
Since former prime minister Stephen Harper’s resignation in 2015, the Conservative Party has seen two leaders come and go. Many Conservative MPs have hitched their wagon to Poilievre, and Hardie noted that any time a party changes leadership, there are all sorts of considerations that come into play.
“You can see the desire to align with an individual who's maybe going to have an oversized say in your role as a member of Parliament on that side of the house. So, you know, who gets to sit on the committees, who gets to sit on the front bench, who gets relegated to the backbench…” he said.
Canada’s National Observer reached out to all 13 Conservative B.C. MPs for comment; only five replied. The office of MP Tako van Popta responded but declined to comment on his endorsement of Poilievre, as did a representative from MP Ed Fast’s office, who endorsed Charest.
A representative from MP Mark Strahl’s office responded with his March 7 statement of support for Poilievre, which declared the party needs a “principled leader” to make the case for conservatism in this country, “a champion who will stand up for our rights and freedoms and won’t back down from Justin Trudeau.”
Likewise, the office of MP Marc Dalton did not answer specific questions — Dalton entered the race but failed to come up with the required funds — but sent his June 2 statement of support for Lewis. In it, he praises Lewis’s principles, passion and vision for the country, adding she “amplifies” that the Conservative Party is a “modern political movement that embraces immigrants, people of colour and women.”
The two B.C. MPs who endorse Charest are Frank Caputo and Ed Fast. In a statement posted to Facebook on March 18, Fast wrote that Charest is the “mature and experienced leader” needed to unite the party and country.
Green MP Elizabeth May declined to comment until after the results of the leadership race are announced.
Natasha Bulowski, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, Canada's National Observer
