Is a far-right coup possible in Germany?
Lisa Hänel
12/09/2022

December 9, 2022

A militant group of Germany's far-right extremist Reichsbürger movement apparently planned to overthrow the government. Could such a coup succeed?

"According to our findings, the association has set itself the goal of eliminating the existing state order in Germany, the free democratic basic order, using violence and military means." This is how Attorney General Peter Frank described the reasons that led to a major raid this week against supporters of the so-called Reichsbürger movement.

Members of the Reichsbürger movement deny the existence of the post-WW2 Federal Republic of Germany. They believe the current state is no more than an administrative construct still occupied by the Western powers — the US, the UK and France. For them, the 1937 borders of the German Empire still exist.

But what does the group mean by "eliminate the free democratic basic order"? It can mean attacking politicians, storming parliamentary buildings, overthrowing the federal government, dissolving the judiciary, and usurping the military.

Is such a thing even within the realm of possibility in today's Germany, with its more than 75 years of democracy, a constitution, firm structures, and separation of powers?

"The state is defensible, the absolute majority of citizens not only identify as democrats but also find democracy worth protecting," Andreas Zick, head of the Institute for Interdisciplinary Research on Conflict and Violence at Bielefeld University, told DW.

Timo Reinfrank, executive director of the Amadeu Antonio Foundation, which aims to strengthen civil society against right-wing extremism, also confirmed: "A real coup d'etat can hardly succeed in Germany, the state order and the constitution are too solid for that."
Extremists with far-reaching connections

And yet: Political analysts this week have warned against underestimating the group that was arrested and the associated militant scene. The group is "insanely dangerous," warned Sebastian Fiedler, spokesman on criminal justice policy. for the ruling center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The Reichsbürger movement, as a whole, is capable and willing to carry out serious terrorist attacks against the state, says terrorism expert Peter R. Neumann.

The Reichsbürger movement in Germany

They join protests against measures to slow the spread of coronavirus, and reject the legitimacy of Germany's government. Some are prepared to use violence. 

Who are the Reichsbürger? And what is Germany doing about them?

What do Reichsbürger believe?

"Reichsbürger" translates to "citizens of the Reich." The nebulous movement rejects the modern German state, and insists that the German Empire's 1937 or 1871 borders still exist and the modern country is an administrative construct still occupied by Allied powers. For Reichsbürger, the government, parliament, judiciary and security agencies are puppets installed and controlled by foreigners.

What do they do?

The Reichsbürger refuse to pay taxes or fines. They see their personal property, such as their houses, as independent entities outside the authority of the Federal Republic of Germany, and reject the German constitution and other legal texts, but also swamp German courts with lawsuits. They produce their own aspirational documents such as passports and driving licenses.

How much of a threat are they?

The Reichsbürger scene began to develop in the 1980s and is a disparate, leaderless movement that has grown to about 19,000 supporters, according to German intelligence officials. Of those, about 950 have been identified as far-right extremists and at least 1,000 have a license to own firearms. Many subscribe to anti-Semitic ideologies.

Who are its members? One was Mr. Germany

According to German authorities, the average Reichsbürger is 50 years old, male, and is socially and financially disadvantaged. The movement's members are concentrated in the southern and eastern parts of Germany. Adrian Ursache, a former winner of the Mister Germany beauty pageant, is also a Reichsbürger and was sentenced to seven years in prison in 2019 for shooting and injuring a policeman.

Turning point

The case of Wolfgang P., who in October 2017 was sentenced to life in prison for murdering a police officer, is seen as a turning point for how German authorities deal with the extremist group. P., an alleged Reichsbürger member, shot at officers who were raiding his home to confiscate weapons. The case gained international attention and set off alarm bells over the escalation of violence.

What are the authorities doing about it?

German authorities were accused of long underestimating the threat. In 2017 for the first time Germany’s domestic intelligence service documented extremist crimes perpetrated by individual Reichsbürger. Since then there have been several raids on Reichsbürger targets and subgroups have been banned. Police and military have also probed whether they have Reichsbürger in their own ranks.

International parallels, conspiracy theories

Reichsbürger have been seen waving Russian flags, leading to allegations that they are funded by Russia with the aim to destabilize the German government. Germany's Reichsbürger are also compared to US groups such as "freemen-on-the-land," who believe that they are bound only by laws they consent to and can therefore declare themselves independent of the government and the rule of law.

What specifically makes the particular group that has been rooted out so dangerous? One reason is its composition, another is the ideology that binds them. The 25 people arrested this week apparently belong to a hodgepodge of extremists — among them are Reichsbürger and opponents of strict anti-COVID-19 measures who took to the streets in the past two years.

What they have in common is their rejection of the democratic state, though not all of them are figures on the fringe of society or far-right extremist radicals.

"They are in parts educated groups, they are people who pursue a profession, who move from the center into the scene and can build a parallel society there," says sociopsychologist Zick. "Over several years they were able to develop a cohesive milieu and forge and alliances to other groups."

Danger to the rule of law

Among those who were arrested is a judge and former Bundestag MP for the far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD). The group also included former army officers, aristocrats, and former members of the police. People, in other words, who have contacts, insights into democratic institutions, and financial resources. Several of them own and are able to use firearms, many of which were seized during the raid.

That makes those arrested and their supporters a threat to the rule of law, even if they can hardly bring the system to its knees. "It may not be able to launch a successful coup, but bits of ideology can be spread and be embraced by other extremist groups or even by individuals in the mainstream of society," Zick said.

Birgit Malsack-Winkemann, a judge and former AfD parliamentarian, was among the plotters who were arrested this weekImage: Bernd von Jutrczenka/dpa/picture alliance

COVID protests brought extremists together

The sociologist warns that many people are united by what has become a dangerous ideological mix. Some of them believe there is a state within a state that operates in secret and they subscribe to antisemitic conspiracy theories. "Central to this is also that many of the groups virtually demand the system be overthrown, because they do not recognize the form of government and democracy at its core," Zick explained.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated protests in particular have contributed to a radicalization of the scene, many experts conclude. Some people have lost faith in the state and have become receptive to perceived struggles for freedom and to demands for the establishment of an alternative state.

"The coronavirus protests have brought together various groups from the middle-class center, right-wing populism, right-wing extremism, conspiracy-oriented and other milieus about ideologies of resistance and freedom," said Andreas Zick.

"It's certainly not classic right-wing extremists, but it's something I've been calling conspiracy extremism for some time now, in which case you could say more precisely right-wing conspiracy terrorism," explained the SPD's spokesman on criminal policy, Sebastian Fiedler.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated protests have contributed to a radicalization among parts of the publicImage: Patrick Pleul/dpa/picture alliance

And politics and society have apparently not yet found a way to combat this. Fiedler said, for example, that the state authorities and politicians now understand quite well how radicalization in right-wing extremism and Islamism works and have set up deradicalization programs accordingly. But they have not yet begun to take action to deal with conspiracy myths. Conflict researcher Andreas Zick also advocates analyzing the groups to then develop a prevention plan.

Establishing a prevention plan seems more urgent than ever: it is precisely crises in a complex world that can push people away from democracy, which can sometimes seem tedious and complicated, and toward the simple explanations that make conspiracy myths so attractive.

"Extremism, in particular, is changing, and especially in times of crisis," Zick warned. "We tend to focus on the majority of the people, but it's small groups like terror cells that can make a state unstable."

This article was originally written in German.

https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2022/12/what-is-reichsburger-movement-accused.html

https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2022/12/conspiracies-are-right-wing-dozens.html

https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2022/12/amerikans-make-it-all-about-them-qanon.html

INDIGENOUS PEOPLES

India's tribes living on the margin of society

Murali Krishnan New Delhi

Although social services are improving in India's urban areas, rural tribal communities are being kept from accessing education and health services.

India's tribal communities suffer deficits in access to education, nutrition and clean drinking water, according to a "tribal development report" from the Bharat Rural Livelihoods Foundation (BRLF).

The new report claims to be the first exhaustive study since 1947 of the living conditions experienced by tribal communities across the country.

The study combined data from government sources, case studies, archival research and interviews with tribal communities. Its authors say the report is intended to highlight issues faced by tribal people in order to spearhead changes in policy.

"This voluminous report traces the historic neglect that tribes have suffered," said Pramathesh Ambasta, founding member of SPS, an Indian NGO focusing on development issues.

"The unique aspect is that it brings together many thematic areas concerning indigenous communities in one place," Ambasta told DW.

Many tribal people live in poor conditions in India

Image: David Talukdar/AA/picture alliance

Tribes missing out on development

Although over 8% of India's population belongs to a tribe, according to the latest census, tribal communities are increasingly being squeezed to the margins of society.

"Despite more than two decades of impressive GDP growth, India's growth has remained confined to enclaves of prosperity surrounded by vast hinterlands of deprivation," an excerpt of the report reads.

"Indigenous communities of India have been pushed farther away from alluvial plains and fertile river basins into the harshest ecological regions of the country like hills, forests and drylands."

Urban development has also displaced tribal communities. This has led to a situation where tribal people are forced to work as daily wage laborers and has left many more displaced without a means of sustenance.

"Tribal communities face marginalisation and oppression on multiple fronts — in terms of their lands, their forests, their access to basic services, and overall discrimination," said Shankar Gopalkrishnan, manager at the tribal interest group Campaign for Survival and Dignity.

"However, government policy has not treated any of these as priorities. In the case of forest and land rights, it has been actively undermining the rights of these communities. This needs to stop if genuine development or empowerment is to take place," she told DW.

For instance, the report said that tribal women have been particularly affected by the progressive and continuing loss of common lands and forests, as they are unable to continue playing a role in their communities' traditional economies after settlements are uprooted.

Tailor-made solutions needed

Dipa Sinha, an assistant professor at Ambedkar University researching health and public services, said that malnourishment is a big problem affecting Indian tribes, especially children.

Sinha told DW the future course of action should be focused on improving the supply side of welfare schemes for the tribal community through higher resource allocation and encouraging local innovations.

"Indigenous dietary practices that have been under threat for quite some time now need to preserve and ensure that access to non-timber forest products is not restricted through an abuse of the Forest Rights Act," added Sinha.

In its final analysis, the report emphasizes that it is important to understand the characteristics specific to different tribal communities and cultures before framing policies.

"There are many tribal communities that prefer isolation and silence. They are shy and are not going to reach out to the outside world on their own. Policymakers and leaders of the country need to understand this trait and then work towards the welfare of tribals so that they connect with them in a better way," the report said.

Iran hit with sanctions over protester execution

Mohsen Shekari was hanged Thursday after being found guilty of 'moharebeh' or 'enmity against God'
Demonstrator wave pre-Islamic Revolution flags of Iran during a rally in support of Iranian protests, with the Eiffel Tower in the background in Paris on Oct. 9, following the death of Iranian woman Mahsa Amini in Iran. (Photo: AFP)

By AFP
Published: December 10, 2022 

Iran was slapped with new sanctions Friday and activists called for fresh protests after the Islamic republic carried out its first execution over demonstrations that have shaken the regime for nearly three months.

Mohsen Shekari, 23, was hanged Thursday after being convicted of "moharebeh" -- or "enmity against God" -- after what rights groups denounced as a show trial.

The judiciary said Shekari was arrested after blocking a Tehran street and wounding a member of the Basij, a paramilitary force linked to Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Iran said it was exercising "utmost restraint" in the face of the protests that flared over the September 16 death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian Kurd, after her arrest for an alleged breach of the country's strict dress code for women.

Britain announced sanctions against 30 targets, including officials in Iran whom it accused of pursuing "egregious sentences" against protesters.

Canada imposed sanctions on 22 senior members of Iran's judiciary, prison system and police, as well top aides to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

European diplomats said the EU was also set to impose more punitive measures on Iran over the deadly crackdown that has killed at least 458 people, including more than 60 children, according to Oslo-based group Iran Human Rights (IHR).

Iran said on December 3 that more than 200 people were killed in the unrest, including security forces.

In addition to Shekari, Iranian media reported on Friday the death of a paramilitary and the burial of another, both of whom were said to have been wounded in clashes with protesters.

Hurried execution

Shekari's body was buried 24 hours after his execution in the presence of a few family members and security forces in Tehran's Behesht-e Zahra cemetery, the 1500tasvir social media monitor reported.

UN rights chief Volker Turk described the execution as "very troubling and clearly designed to send a chilling effect to the rest of the protesters".

Overnight, protesters nonetheless took to the street where Shekari was arrested, shouting, "They took away our Mohsen and brought back his body," in a video shared by 1500tasvir.

Elsewhere, chants of "Death to the dictator" and "Death to Sepahi" were heard at a demonstration in Tehran's Chitgar district, in reference to Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards.

1500tasvir said Shekari's execution happened with such haste that his family had still been waiting to hear the outcome of his appeal.

It posted harrowing footage of what it said was the moment his family learnt the news outside their Tehran home, with a woman doubled up in pain and grief, repeatedly screaming his name.

The families of political prisoners put to death in mass executions in 1988 joined in the condemnation.

"Mohsen's execution is a reminder of the loss of our loved ones, who... just like Mohsen, were tried in minutes-long sham trials," they said in a statement published by US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency.

Hamed Esmaeilion, an Iranian-Canadian activist who has organised mass protests in Berlin, Paris and other cities, said more demonstrations would be held at the weekend.

'Chilling effect'

Western governments, which had already imposed waves of sanctions against Iran over the protest crackdown, also expressed anger.

Washington called Shekari's execution "a grim escalation" and vowed to hold the Iranian regime to account for violence "against its own people".

Germany summoned the Iranian ambassador, a diplomatic source said, without providing further details.

Spain condemned the execution "in the strongest terms", calling on Tehran to "respect the fundamental rights of the Iranian population, including freedom of expression and peaceful demonstration".

Iran has defended its response to the protests and accused the West of hypocrisy.

"In countering riots, Iran has shown utmost restraint and, unlike many Western regimes... Iran has employed proportionate and standard anti-riot methods," its foreign ministry said.

"The same is true for the judicial process: restraint and proportionality," it tweeted late Thursday, adding: "Public security is a red line."

According to Amnesty, Iran executes more people annually than any nation other than China.

IHR this week warned the Islamic republic had already executed more than 500 people in 2022, a sharp jump on last year.

At least a dozen other people are currently at risk of execution after being sentenced to hang in connection with the protests, human rights groups warned.

Iranian women shot in eyes, breasts and thighs during anti-hijab protests: Report

Iranian women part of protests against the regime over the hijab law are being shot in their faces, breasts and genitals, a report said.

India Today Web Desk
New Delhi,

UPDATED: Dec 9, 2022 

People participate in a protest against the Islamic regime of Iran and the death of Mahsa Amini (Photo: File)


By India Today Web Desk: As anti-hijab protests rage on in Iran, security forces, who have brutally cracked down on demonstrators with batons and handcuffs, are reportedly targeting unarmed women with shotgun fire to their faces, breasts and genitals, a report said.

The "birdshot pellets" which security forces fired on protesters from close range targeted women's faces, breasts and genitals, The Guardian reported, citing medics who treated the bullet wounds.

Images accessed by the US media outlet showed people with dozens of tiny "shot" balls lodged deep in their flesh. But men were shot in their legs, buttocks, and backs.

Read | What the Iranian anti-hijab protest unveiled

"I treated a woman in her early 20s who was shot in her genitals by two pellets. Ten other pellets were lodged in her inner thigh. These 10 pellets were easily removed, but those two pellets were a challenge, because they were wedged in between her urethra and vaginal opening," a doctor was quoted as saying, indicating that men and women were targeted in different ways.

Some of the other medics accused security forces, including the feared pro-regime Basij militia, of ignoring riot control practices, such as firing weapons at feet and legs to avoid damaging vital organs, the report said.

Read | 'Death to dictator': Schoolgirls in Iran remove hijabs as they take up baton against govt

Protests have swept Iran since September 16 following the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian of Kurdish origin in custody after being arrested by the morality police for allegedly flouting the Sharia-based hijab law.

Protesters have burned their head coverings, shouted anti-government slogans and tossed turbans off Muslim clerics' heads. Since Mahsa Amini's death, a growing number of women have not been observing hijab, particularly in Tehran's fashionable north.

Iranians protest the death of Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police, in Tehran (Photo: AP)

Meanwhile, Iranian authorities have accused the United States, Israel, European powers and Saudi Arabia of being behind the persisting unrest, saying they used Amini’s death as an “excuse” to target the country and its foundations.

The hijab, which has been mandatory since shortly after the country’s 1979 Islamic revolution, has been a central ideological issue for Iranian authorities, who have repeatedly said they will not back down from it.

Read | 'Mullahs must get lost': Iranians sing at new Mahsa Amini protests

Watch | What do we learn from the hijab protests in Iran?

Sister of Iran's leader condemns his rule, urges Guards to disarm - letter

 

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with a group of students in Tehran, Iran November 2, 2022. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)

December 7, 2022

DUBAI (Reuters) - A sister of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has condemned his crackdown on nationwide protests and called on the widely-feared Revolutionary Guards to lay down their weapons, according to a letter published by her France-based son.

Iran has been gripped by unrest since the death of 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman Mahsa Amini in police custody on Sept 16., and is facing a three-day general strike movement which started on Monday.

Badri Hosseini Khamenei, who lives in Iran and is the sister of Ayatollah Khamenei, criticised the clerical establishment starting from the time of the Islamic Republic's late founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to her brother's rule, the letter, dated "December 2022", said.

"I think it is appropriate now to declare that I oppose my brother's actions and I express my sympathy with all mothers mourning the crimes of the Islamic Republic, from the time of Khomeini to the current era of the despotic caliphate of Ali Khamenei," she wrote in the letter which was shared on Wednesday on the Twitter account of her son, Mahmoud Moradkhani.

"Ali Khamenei's Revolutionary Guards and mercenaries should lay down their weapons as soon as possible and join the people before it is too late," the letter said.

The Revolutionary Guards are Iran's elite force which has helped the country's establish proxies across the Middle East, and runs a vast business empire.

On Tuesday, the elite force shared a statement calling on the judiciary to "not show mercy to rioters, thugs and terrorists", in a sign that the authorities have no intention of easing their fierce crackdown on dissent.

Iran’s judiciary spokesman, Masoud Setayeshi, said on Tuesday that five people indicted in the killing of Basij militia member Rouhollah Ajamian were sentenced to death in a verdict which they can still appeal.

In November, Khamenei's activist niece Farideh Moradkhani was arrested by authorities after calling on foreign governments to cut all ties with Tehran.

Videos shared on Twitter by 1500tasvir, an account that has 385,000 followers and focuses on Iran's protests, showed closed shops in commercial streets of Tehran, Isfahan, Ilam, Kermanshah, Najafabad, Arak, Babol, and Shiraz where security forces were forcing shopkeepers to open up their stores.

Reuters could not verify the videos.

President Ebrahim Raisi meanwhile gave a speech at the University of Tehran to mark Student Day.

Some students outside the main reception hall shouted "dishonourable" and "students will die but won't accept this government." A video shared by 1500tasvir showed students getting into verbal fights with plain clothed security forces.

Students protested in several universities across Iran such as Amir Kabir University in the capital, where they called for the "downfall of the whole regime" and shouted "death to Khamenei" according to footage shared by 1500tasvir.

In the northeastern city of Mashhad, students gathered outside Ferdowsi University and were threatened by people riding in a pick up truck who warned them they would be "summoned" and that it would end badly for them.

 

Iran Regime Has Increased Its Persecution Of Minorities – OpEd

 December 9, 2022  Arab News  0 Comments

By Arab News

By Dr. Majid Rafizadeh *

The Iranian regime’s suppression, specifically of religious and ethnic minorities, has reached a new peak. Some of the most violent attacks on protesters over the last three months have been occurring in provinces where minorities, including Kurds, Arabs, Sunnis and Balochis, reside.

Three major institutions appear to be involved: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, its paramilitary group the Basij and the regime’s security forces. The deputy Middle East director at Human Rights Watch, Adam Coogle, warned that attacks by IRGC forces “on residential areas in the Kurdistan region of Iraq (are) part of a long history of lethal attacks on civilians, including during the war in Syria. Countries seeking to hold Iran accountable for its brutal crackdown … should also ensure that those responsible for indiscriminately killing civilians abroad are held accountable as well.”

It is worth noting that Mahsa Amini, whose death while in the custody of Iran’s so-called morality police sparked the ongoing nationwide protests, was from the Kurdish ethnic minority group and the Sunni religious minority group. While many Iranians are subjected to persecution for exercising their basic rights, such as freedom of expression, the persecution of ethnic minorities appears to be proportionally much greater.

As Joe Stork, deputy director of Human Rights Watch’s Middle East and North Africa Division, previously pointed out: “Iranian authorities show little tolerance of political dissent anywhere in the country, but they are particularly hostile to dissent in minority areas where there has been any history of separatist activities.”

Iran has several ethnic minority groups, which mainly live in provinces bordering other countries. The ethnic minorities include the Arabs, who live near the Iraqi border in southwest Iran; Kurds, who reside in the northwest in what is known as Iranian Kurdistan; the Azeris, who are from several provinces including Tehran, Hamadan and East Azerbaijan; and the Balochis, who mostly reside in the southeastern province of Sistan and Balochistan, which borders Pakistan.

This also suggests that there is greater discrimination against people living in the border provinces. Many members of the ethnic minority groups also happen to belong to Iran’s religious minority, the Sunnis. Sunnis are the largest religious minority in the country, with many belonging to the Arab, Balochi, Turkmen and Kurdish ethnic groups.

According to the UN’s special rapporteur for human rights in Iran, the country’s Sunnis have long raised serious concerns that the “authorities do not appoint or employ them in high-ranking government positions, such as Cabinet-level ministers or governors. They have also raised concerns regarding reported restrictions on the construction of Sunni mosques in Shiite-majority areas, including the capital Tehran, and the execution or imminent execution of Sunni activists the government alleges were involved in terrorist-related activities.”

Since its establishment in 1979, the Islamic Republic has generally viewed the country’s ethnic and religious minorities through the lens of suspicion and regarded them as an opposition group or as outsiders. In addition, since one of the major revolutionary and religious principles of Iran’s ruling clerics is to export Shiite ideology, non-Shiite groups are generally considered rivals, conspirators or threats to achieving the regime’s ideological goals.

This explains why, even though Sunnis make up about 10 percent of Iran’s population, no Sunni has been appointed to a high-level government position since the establishment of the regime in 1979. This has all been happening despite Article 12 of the Islamic Republic’s constitution stipulating: “Other Islamic schools, including the Hanafi, Shafi’i, Maliki, Hanbali and Zaydi, are to be accorded full respect and their followers are free to act in accordance with their own jurisprudence in performing their religious rites. These schools enjoy official status in matters pertaining to religious education, affairs of personal status (marriage, divorce, inheritance and wills) and related litigation in courts of law.”

It should also be noted that Iran’s ethnic and religious minorities generally live in provinces that have an abundance of natural resources. For example, Khuzestan is one of Iran’s wealthiest provinces when it comes to oil and natural gas. It reportedly produces 85 percent to 90 percent of Iran’s oil, making it the main pillar of the country’s economy and the government’s revenues. But in spite of the fact that Khuzestan is rich in natural resources, many of its Arab and Sunni population live in poverty. Balochis face the same dire situation, as they are treated like second-class citizens, repressed and sidelined.

In a nutshell, the Iranian regime has recently escalated its brutal crackdown on and suppression of ethnic and religious minorities. The country’s minorities, including the Kurds, Arabs, Balochis and Sunnis, should be free to exercise their constitutional rights. It is important that human rights groups and the international political community pressure the Iranian regime into halting its persecution and harassment of religious and ethnic minorities.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Anti-regime protest in Iran. Photo Credit: PMOI/MEK

Arab News is Saudi Arabia's first English-language newspaper. It was founded in 1975 by Hisham and Mohammed Ali Hafiz. Today, it is one of 29 publications produced by Saudi Research & Publishing Company (SRPC), a subsidiary of Saudi Research & Marketing Group (SRMG).

HUMAN RIGHTS

INDONESIA

Opinion: Indonesia's penal reform is a danger to democracy

Rahka Susanto
Commentary
12/08/2022

December 8, 2022

The reform of Indonesia's criminal law not only makes sex outside marriage a punishable offence. Freedom of expression is also being restricted. It's a threat to democracy, says Rahka Susanto.

Activists protest against Indonesia's new penal code in Yogyakarta, Indonesia

 Slamet Riyadi/AP/picture alliance

Sex sells: The Indonesian parliament's ban on extramarital sex this week made international headlines. However, it was often overlooked that the reform also severely restricts the right to freedom of expression.

The new code prohibits, among other things, demonstrations without registration, the dissemination of views contrary to state ideology, and insulting the president and other public officials.

Anyone who behaves in a hostile manner towards the six religions and beliefs officially recognised in Indonesia, i.e. Islam, Protestantism, Catholicism, Hinduism, Buddhism and Confucianism, can now expect a prison sentence up to five years on charges of blasphemy.

At first glance, everything seemed coherent and politically correct: 77 years after independence from the Netherlands, Indonesia reformed its penal code, which dates back to colonial times, for the first time. Jakarta sold the reform as liberation from the nation's colonial legacy and an urgently needed modernisation.

Insulting high office becomes an offence

But the reality is different. Because with the article on "insulting heads of state and state institutions," the government in Jakarta facilitates the criminalisation of its critics. Instead of the announced modernisation, the criminal law reform enables arbitrary prosecution.

Indonesia is thus following Thailand's example. In the neighbouring country, insulting or violating the dignity of a ruling head of state, often a monarch, or the state itself, has long been considered a criminal offence.

Critics fear that a flexible interpretation of the new penal code could make it easier to arrest opposition figures. It could also include monitoring critical statements on social media.

Although criticism and insult are two different offences, there is no precise definition in the new text of the law of what counts as criticism and what counts as insulting the government. So far, the government has always pointed out that Indonesia is a society that upholds "Eastern civilisation," so criticism

should be expressed politely. This raises the question of when something is considered polite or impolite.

Constitutional judges decide

Indonesia is a young democracy. The largest Islamic country in the world has only had a law protecting freedom of expression since 1998. Many young people did not experience the times of dictatorship under General Suharto, who ruled between 1965 to 1998. More than 156 million people out of the total population of 274 million (57%) are under 30 years of age.

Indonesian parliamentarians ratified the new penal code this week, which replaced its colonial era predecessor

Image: AP Photo/picture alliance

Of all Indonesians, the young generation that grew up under democracy must now fear for their freedom. Only the Indonesian Constitutional Court can stop the dangerous reform. If the supreme court judges find that the new penal code violates the constitution, which protects the right to expression, it would be a major victory for democracy.

Europe can also contribute to the protection of human rights in Indonesia. EU member states should raise the issue of violations of freedom of expression and human rights with Indonesia's President Joko Widodo at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit with the EU in Brussels on December 14 and demand changes.

Rahkasiwi Dimas Susanto is a reporter with DW

Image: Privat

Sex Isn’t the Only Problem With Indonesia’s New Penal Code


Analysis by Clara Ferreira Marques | Bloomberg
December 9, 2022 

To anyone who’s been watching Indonesia in recent years, the passing of a conservative new criminal code — one that bans extramarital sex, makes it easier to punish LGBTQ people and harder to criticize the government — won’t come as a shock. Less tolerant forms of Islam have been seeping into the world’s most populous Muslim nation. Destructive blasphemy charges have toppled political hopefuls and Islamic bylaws are common. To secure his reelection in 2019, President Joko Widodo chose senior cleric Ma’ruf Amin as his running mate.

That doesn’t make the bill — and the circumstances that allowed it to be rushed through, without significant political resistance — any less troubling. Indonesia is attempting to court foreign investment, to improve its workforce and education system, and just bolstered its international standing with its presidency of the Group of 20. Jakarta can’t afford backsliding. It’s also gearing up for a presidential election in 2024, meaning discourse isn’t likely to move in a more liberal direction.

Nor is the regional context reassuring. In neighboring Malaysia, a November general election that saw millions of young voters casting ballots for the first time resulted in hardline Parti Islam Se-Malaysia emerging with the largest number of seats of any individual party, surfing a wave of discontent with existing alternatives. PAS hasn’t joined the governing coalition, but its concerns will be heard.

Granted, the revamp of Indonesia’s old code, still a relic of the Dutch colonial era, has been in the works for decades. This is a Muslim-majority nation, and far more conservative than is often assumed — a 2019 Pew survey found some 80% of Indonesians think homosexuality should not be accepted by society. For many Indonesians, even non-Muslim ones, the code may well reflect their beliefs, if not necessarily what they would actively campaign for.

It’s also true that the bill could have been worse. It did, for example, limit the categories of people who can file police complaints over morality crimes. Hardline groups, those campaigning for alcohol bans and the imposition of Islamic penal law, wanted more. And, yes, legislation is one thing and practice is quite another.

Unfortunately, the risks to minorities and political opponents suggest that’s no comfort at all.

First and foremost, concern will be for the LGBTQ community, already dealing with one of the harshest environments in Asia, even if same-sex relationships were not previously criminalized at the national level. Raids, shaming and harassment have long been common. The new code stipulates reports have to be made by a parent, spouse or child — meaning foreigners may find they can get around the law, and in theory limiting application — but it opens the door to morality policing on a much wider scale.

In fact, almost anyone is at risk of excessively zealous application, given how open to interpretation certain clauses are when it comes to anything that does not align with conservative views, including, say, black magic, in a country where such beliefs have long co-existed with Islam. It will hurt women by making sexual education and information on contraception harder. And that’s before considering the provisions that ban insulting the president and state institutions, gagging government critics, already frequently targeted with other provisions. Defamation laws, similar to lèse-majesté, are all too useful to restrict freedom of expression.

The question, then, is where we go from here. It may help to consider the three factors that have already supported the current conservative turn — none of them fading.

First, in both Malaysia and Indonesia, politicians have found that Islamic identity politics, and piety, pays. In Malaysia, this dates back to Premier Mahathir Mohamad in the 1980s, increasing under Najib Razak, who courted PAS and its conservative voters to shore up his power as scandals hit. Islamic organizations, after all, can mobilize voters and crowds, as they did against former Jakarta governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, known as Ahok, a Christian. He was jailed for blasphemy in 2017. His Muslim opponent and eventual successor, Anies Baswedan, will run for president in 2024 and should get the support of traditionalists, though he will inevitably seek the backing of more moderate Islamic groups too.

It’s proven pragmatic to occasionally cede to conservative forces, especially for a president like Jokowi, focused on his economic and development goals. The Indonesian leader, as anthropologist Martin van Bruinessen at Utrecht University pointed out to me, has successfully repressed the activism that brought down Ahok by banning some movements and co-opting others. “The current legislation seems to be at variance with government policy,” he explains, “but is the expression of political realities.” There are bargains to be made in a large coalition of discordant parties.

There’s also the education question. In both Malaysia and Indonesia, Islamic groups have been able to take advantage of creaking public systems, allowing them to set up religious boarding schools and other institutions that offer an affordable alternative to the private sector, but can encourage a drift to traditionalism and do not necessarily churn out the workers of the future. Neither country is doing enough to solve that education deficit.

Perhaps the most concerning, though, is the way democratic vulnerabilities in both countries have aided the conservative turn and are likely to encourage it. In Indonesia, that applies as much to the content of the code, with its provisions making it easier to muzzle critics, as to the way it has been passed. In 2019, an earlier effort to revise the criminal code met with massive demonstrations, there was widespread anger over the reluctance to make the draft public, and concerns over changes seen as a winding back of democracy.

This year, public consultation and discussion has again been curtailed, but the government has not seen itself hampered by a similar surge of anger, though the bill will fully come into effect three years after it is signed, leaving ample time for protest and court challenges. In part, says Alexander Arifianto at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, it’s about fatigue — and the fact people are not yet feeling targeted enough by the new code get out. The problem, as he argues, is that laws that interfere with personal freedoms are hard to predict, especially when they rely on private actors to enforce them.

You are not on the wrong side of morality laws — until you are.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Clara Ferreira Marques is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist and editorial board member covering foreign affairs and climate. Previously, she worked for Reuters in Hong Kong, Singapore, India, the U.K., Italy and Russia.

COP15

Urgent UN talks hope to protect nature, halt rapid decline

Stuart Braun
12/06/2022

December 6, 2022

A commitment to protect 30% of the world's land and ocean — and stave off mass extinction and climate change — will drive UN biodiversity conference talks in Montreal this week.

The natural ecosystems that sustain our planet and its species are fast declining.

Currently, less than 17% of land and 8% of oceans globally are protected areas where biodiversity is theoretically safe from threats like deforestation, exploitation or pollution.

But even though they are protected, these areas still aren't safeguarded from other hazards sparked by climate change, such as drought, floods and wildfires.

Human-induced biodiversity loss is driving the world's sixth mass extinction whereby three-quarters of animal and plant species could disappear in just a few centuries. This loss also worsens climate change by denuding the planet of carbon stores provided by trees and other vegetation.

This month's UN biodiversity conference in Montreal, Canada, aims to arrest ecosystem decline by protecting 30% of both global land and sea by 2030 (dubbed "30 by 30").

The goal, if agreed, will be part of a new global biodiversity framework, the first to be negotiated since 2010.

The 15th Convention of Parties (COP15), which upholds the 1992 Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) ratified by 195 UN members and the European Union, seeks to maintain biodiversity through the sustainable use of nature resources.

"Biodiversity is the foundation of life," said Elizabeth Maruma Mrema, a Tanzanian lawyer and executive secretary of the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity based in Montreal.

"We depend on biodiversity for the food we eat, the water we drink, the sequestration of carbon, the medicines we take, the air we breathe," she told DW.

The Amazon rainforest, one of the most biodiverse area on Earth, is rapidly being destroyed to make way for agricultureImage: Leo Correa/AP Photo/picture alliance

Tackling drivers of biodiversity loss

There is a lot of pressure for this critical COP to establish realistic and achievable goals.

The 2010 conference in Nagoya, Japan, set 20 biodiversity targets such as halving natural habitat loss by 2020. None were met, according to a 2020 CBD report.

"We basically failed to achieve any of the targets and things obviously have got a lot worse since," said Dave Hole, a climate change and biodiversity scientist at US-based Conservation International. "The next 10 years are incredibly important," he added, noting that insect numbers, which are vital to ecosystems as pollinators, are in steep decline. Some 40% of the world's insect species could become extinct over the next few decades, a 2019 study found.

The Montreal biodiversity summit will create a road map for nature recovery by 2030, not only through protection but by targeting 22 drivers of biodiversity loss, including overexploitation of natural resources, pollution, invasive alien species and climate change.

Biodiversity is also vital to the world economy. With 50% of global Gross Domestic Product dependent on nature, according to Mrema, biodiversity protection will not also nurture life on earth but will provide near 400 million extra jobs globally by 2030.

Mrema believes that the world is "ready to take those needed actions to reverse and halt the loss of biodiversity," but increasing protection won't be an easy task.

 

Roadblocks to nature protection

An area of forest equivalent to the size of Portugal is cut down every year — taking valuable biodiversity with it. Though half of this area is replanted, that doesn't restore ancient ecosystems and the species that once thrived there.

The efforts at COP15 to greatly increase the amount of protected biodiverse area will need to accommodate a number of competing interests. Will Indigenous people, for example, be forced off traditional lands where they live and work?

Mrema says the 30 by 30 goal is likely to be ratified. But, she added, there needs to be agreement on safeguarding Indigenous land rights, culture and traditional knowledge as it is those communities who are the custodians of biodiversity.

Finance is set to be another major sticking point. Some estimates say the current gap necessary to finance biodiversity protection could be as much as $824 billion (€780 billion) per year by 2030.

Like the deal for climate loss and damages compensation brokered last month at the COP27 climate conference, developing nations including Gabon, Cuba and Argentina, have called for rich countries to provide $700 billion a year by 2030 for biodiversity.

But developed nations have been reluctant to create a funding mechanism for nature protection.

"We don't want a paper agreement without anything behind it," said South Africa Environment Minister Barbara Creecy of the need to make up the funding gap. "We want a special biodiversity and conservation fund to support the goals."

A draft text of the biodiversity agreement includes the aim to reform around $500 billion annually in funding that harms nature, such as subsidies for fossil fuels among other things. This will replace the failed 2010 commitment to "eliminate, phase out or reform incentives, including subsidies, that are harmful to biodiversity," the draft text says.

 

Ocean biodiversity in the Maldives has declined because of the destruction of seagrass meadows through dredging

Image: Jason Boswell

Biodiversity and climate action interdependent

Using fossil fuels for energy is not only one of the main drivers of climate change, it also produces air and water pollution that damages the natural world. This illustrates the key link between biodiversity and climate agendas.

Experts say that any 30 by 30 target will be threatened by the onset of global warming and extreme weather impacts. "We can't find solutions for one in isolation from the other," said Elizabeth Maruma Mrema.

According to new research released last week, to avoid catastrophic climate change, the global land sector – including agriculture, forestry and natural land protection and restoration — must reach net zero emissions by 2030.

Protecting biodiversity would therefore serve to help transform the land sector from a greenhouse gas emitter (currently 12 gigatons annually) to a carbon sink by 2050, stated the report by Conservation International.

But such natural climate solutions will demand a much better understanding of biodiversity decline.

"The climate crisis has been studied in far greater depth scientifically than the crisis of biodiversity loss," said Jörg Rocholl, president of the ESMT international business school in Berlin, who is calling for a price on biodiversity loss like that placed on CO2 in the EU Emissions Trading System.

"There is an urgent need for catching up in this regard.

CRIMINAL CRYPTO  CAPITALI$M

Bahamian attorneys pursue access to FTX data of international customers


The Bahamian attorneys filed an emergency motion with a Delaware bankruptcy judge requesting access to FTX’s customer database to aid their ongoing investigations.

Authorities across the globe are fighting against time to bring justice to the millions of people impacted by the financial frauds committed by FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried. As part of the ongoing investigations, attorneys representing the Securities Commission of the Bahamas seek access to FTX’s database with international customer information.

The Bahamian attorneys filed an emergency motion with a Delaware bankruptcy judge requesting access to FTX’s customer database to aid their ongoing investigations. The motion highlighted previous failed attempts to access the defunct crypto exchange’s database. As a result, the lawyers claimed that FTX employees and counsel prevented authorities from getting critical financial information.

The database in question is reportedly stored on Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Google Cloud Portal databases, which include personal information such as wallet addresses, customer balances, deposit and withdrawal records, trades and accounting data. According to the lawyers, the U.S. bankruptcy proceedings will "suffer no harm or hardship if this relief is granted."

While AWS was used to store customer information, FTX used Google services as an analytics platform for data of users residing outside of the United States. According to the filing sourced by CNBC:
“While the Joint Provisional Liquidators are happy to engage in dialogue with the U.S. Debtors, their refusal to promptly restore access has frustrated the ability of the Joint Provisional Liquidators to carry out their duties under Bahamian law and placed FTX Digital’s assets at risk of dissipation.”

The latest domino effect of FTX fraud was felt by media outlet The Block, which had failed to disclose funding from Alameda Research. The Block CEO Mike McCaffrey stepped down from his position after failing to disclose $27 million loans from FTX's sister firm Alameda Research.

Related: CZ and SBF duke it out on Twitter over failed FTX/Binance deal

On Dec. 7, the new management team of FTX reportedly hired a team of financial forensic investigators to track down the missing customer funds exceeding $450 million in cryptocurrencies.

As previously reported by Cointelegraph, the forensics firm is tasked with conducting “asset-tracing” to identify and recover the missing digital assets and will complement the restructuring work being undertaken by FTX.

KEVIN AIN'T SO WONDERFUL

Binance's Changpeng Zhao Shocked After Seeing Kevin O'Leary's Interview

Fri, 12/09/2022 
Arman Shirinyan

CEO of one of biggest exchanges in world believes celebrity investor doesn't understand what he's talking about

Cover image via www.youtube.com

The CEO of the biggest cryptocurrency exchange on the market was left in shock after hearing an interview by Kevin O'Leary, who has been notably defending and supporting the CEO of the fallen FTX exchange, Sam-Bankman Fried. But after the most recent interview, CZ confidently stated that Mr. Wonderful is aligning with the fraudster.

According to CZ, Binance exited FTX 1.5 years ago in July 2021. Since then, FTX has not been conservative with its investments: the company redistributed around $5.5 billion among hundreds of companies. Some fund managers who had a brief look at FTX's sheets highlighted the "spray and pray" nature of the strategy as no patterns in investment behavior had been discovered.

Alameda and FTX have been investing in a "myriad" of companies from completely different sectors, making the efficiency of those investments questionable, which explains the whole insolvency and illiquid state of the company.

On top of that, highlights CZ, FTX spent money on Miami Stadium, multiple Super Bowls ads, F1 and more, without mentioning luxury real estate, which is a despicable misuse of their own users' funds, even according to the exchange's terms.

But the behavior of SBF was not what surprised the Binance CEO. CZ said that O'Leary ignored the "greatest financial crime in history" and does not seem able to admit what SBF really did, based on an interview with Squawk Box

Per CZ, unlike the celebrity investor, Binance is continuously doing its due diligence even after making an investment that allowed it to safely get out of the Alameda and FTX deal more than 1.5 years ago, far before the implosion and further insolvency of the exchange and Alameda fund.
#Binance

Disclaimer: The opinion expressed here is not investment advice – it is provided for informational purposes only. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of U.Today. Every investment and all trading involves risk, so you should always perform your own research prior to making decisions. We do not recommend investing money you cannot afford to lose.Read U.TODAY on
Google News

About the author
Arman Shirinyan is a trader, crypto enthusiast and SMM expert with more than four years of experience.

Arman strongly believes that cryptocurrencies and the blockchain will be of constant use in the future. Currently, he focuses on news, articles with deep analysis of crypto projects and technical analysis of cryptocurrency trading pairs.

UK
Millions cannot afford to heat their homes, new report finds



EREN SAGIR

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 8, 2022

MILLIONS of low-income households cannot afford to heat their homes, with 2.5 million going without food and heating as freezing temperatures sweep Britain, a damning new report has found.

Analysis by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) yesterday found that some 710,000 households are unable to heed the advice of the UK Health and Security Agency for vulnerable people to warm their homes to at least 18°C, wear extra layers and eat hot food to protect themselves.

A fifth of all low-income households are going without food and heating, with 4.3m people having already curbed their spending on heating even before the cold spell hit.

More than 7m households have gone without at least one of the essentials since June, according to the JRF.

Around 2.4m households have borrowed money or used credit to afford their bills so far this year.

JRF senior economist Rachelle Earwaker said that the government “must see that families won’t be able to get through the winter” on the current levels of support.

She said: “We’re still experiencing historically high inflation and the prices of essentials are still soaring.

“Energy bills, while capped, are still almost double what they were last winter.

“Housing shortages, rising rents and mortgage payments are overburdening budgets across the country.

“The dangerously cold weather on the horizon is cause for concern.

“People are being forced to wager their financial health and whether they can afford more debt, against their wellbeing without sufficient heat, clothing or hot food.”

Ms Earwaker added that the basic social security level is “woefully below” the level that would allow people to afford essentials.

The JRF is urging the government to change universal credit and increase the basic rate of support.

End Fuel Poverty Coalition co-ordinator Simon Francis hit out at the government for “standing by, happy to watch the most vulnerable struggle in fuel poverty.”

He told the Star: “The government could solve this at the stroke of a pen.

“Close the windfall tax loophole which would raise £22 billion and provide the urgent support to those who need it.”

Fuel Poverty Action warned that the situation was desperate and that people will lose their lives as a direct result of government policies.

A government spokesperson said its priority will “always be to support the most vulnerable” and that it is providing support for millions.

MORNINGSTAR

Warm banks open across Wirral to help people heat homes

8th December
By Rebecca McGrath@rebeccamjourno

Reporter

A DOZEN warm banks are taking in people in Wirral who cannot afford to heat their homes, new figures show.

The figures come as a leading anti-poverty charity cautions that hundreds of thousands of people on low incomes are at risk during the extreme low temperatures hitting the UK.

The soaring cost of fuel and basic essentials has led to the rise of so-called 'warm banks' – locations such as churches and libraries which people can visit if they are struggling to afford heating.

Warm Welcome, a campaign group, has compiled a map of warm spaces across the UK – with 12 open in Wirral as of December 1.

The charity said nearly 2,700 warm banks were open across the country at this time, including 337 in the North West.

They come in various shapes and sizes, and may provide other support – such as food, hot drinks, and internet access.

The charity says that more spaces are opening every day across the country, and that it is working hard to register new organisations that are helping out – meaning that the real figure could be higher.

David Barclay, manager of the Warm Welcome campaign, called it "unacceptable" that people are being forced to decide whether to heat their homes or eat.

But he said that the response from civil society has provided "cause for hope" – with the number of warm spaces rising significantly from just 350 at the start of October.

Mr Barclay added that warm banks could also have a role in the fight against loneliness in the UK, providing vulnerable people with community support.

The figures come as a cold snap grips the UK.

The UK Health Security Agency has issued a cold weather alert from Wednesday, December 7 to Monday, December 12, saying that those at risk should heat their most-used rooms to at least 18 degrees, wear extra layers, and have plenty of hot food and drinks to keep warm.

But a new report from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, an anti-poverty charity, estimates that more than 700,000 people on low incomes across the UK cannot afford these necessities.

Rachelle Earwaker, a senior economist at the charity, said that vulnerable people were having to "wager their financial health against their wellbeing" during periods of dangerously cold weather.

She urged the Government to "help everyone who needs it this winter", cautioning that energy bills are still almost double what they were at this point last year – even with the Government's energy price cap.

A spokesperson for the Department of Levelling Up, Housing and Communities said: “We know the pressures people are facing with rising costs, which is why we have continually taken action to help households by phasing in £37 billion worth of support.

“This includes £1,200 to help pay their bills and the two-year Energy Price Guarantee, that will save a typical household £1,000 annually."

UK

Senior Tory MPs Privately Admit They're 

Going To Lose The Next General Election

Some have joked about “managing decline” while others warn of a "self-fulfilling prophecy".

Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Boris Johnson, Theresa May and David Cameron

By Sophia Sleigh
10/12/2022
HUFFPOST UK

Senior Tory MPs are privately admitting they have already lost the next general election, HuffPost UK can reveal.

One former Tory cabinet minister said that a Conservative Party defeat in 2024 is fast becoming a “self-fulfilling prophecy”.

Other top Tories have drily commented that the current government led by Rishi Sunak is “managing decline”

HuffPost has been told about multiple cases in which senior Tories and even ministers have openly predicted or joked about losing the next election.

Some outgoing MPs will state publicly that the party is going to lose including Sir Charles Walker who said it is “almost impossible” for Sunak to win.

It comes amid a mass exodus of Conservative MPs - including former cabinet ministers Sajid Javid and Matt Hancock - announcing they will stand down at the next election.

“There will be more big names who throw in the towel this summer,” one former cabinet minister predicted.

Fifteen Tory MPs have announced they will quit at the next election - including rising star Dehenna Davison who is a junior minister at just 29.

Others stepping down include vice-chairman of the influential 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers Will Wragg, 34, and former cabinet minister Chloe Smith, 40.

A Conservative Party insider added: “MPs are accepting the view that it’s going to be tough or they are going to lose next election.

“If you get names like Iain Duncan Smith standing down - more will join the bonfire.”

An MP added: “I think it’s pretty clear there’s a lot of job hunting going on.”

Tory MPs have been spooked by some recent polls that have given Labour a 25-point lead over the Conservatives.

A recent by-election in Chester saw a 14-point swing towards Labour which pollsters say would give Labour a comfortable majority at an election.

The local elections in May 2023 will give MPs a further indication of where the public is heading at the next general election.

However, one Labour frontbencher said that while the next general election is “ours to lose” there was plenty of time for them to “screw up”.

Labour Party leader Keir Starmer has even told his MPs to tattoo “no complacency” to their heads.

“It is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy,” one former Tory cabinet minister told HuffPost UK.

“If colleagues keep saying we’re not going to win the next election - then that’s what’s going to happen.

“Although, it is also hard to see how we bounce back from those polls. The party is tired and we’re out of ideas. We won’t hold on to most of those red wall seats.

“And Labour voters who stayed at home last time because they didn’t like Corbyn will feel they can vote for Starmer.”

Another Tory former minister agreed, adding: “Where are the ideas? We’re not actually doing anything.”

However, MPs on the right of the party are less worried about Labour and more worried about former Ukip and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage staging a comeback.

One Tory MP said: “If Nigel was serious then that could take a lot of votes from us. I would be really worried about that - it would result in a Labour landslide.

“But I really don’t think Nigel could handle the rejection again - he’s tried seven times to become an MP.

“I’m not sure he’d seriously do it again. And Richard Tice [leader of Reform UK] just doesn’t have the same appeal.”

However, the MP might have a point after Tice told The Telegraph he was having conversations with Tory councillors and MPs about joining his party.

And earlier in the week a Barnsley councillor resigned from the Conservatives to join the Reform party.

Nigel Farage.
IAN FORSYTH VIA GETTY IMAGES

While the Tory civil war seems to have publicly abated, senior MPs warn that it is merely a ceasefire.

There is a strong sense of mistrust in the party with a lot of MPs still loyal to Boris Johnson blaming the people around Sunak for taking him down.

There is even a number of “diehard” Johnson fans who still see him as their only hope of electoral success - although MPs say such colleagues are “deluded”.

“People think we’re mad for getting rid of him,” one Johnson backing MP said.

“Boris could walk down the road naked in my constituency killing the first borns and people would still love him and vote for him.”

Some Tory MPs are keen to have Johnson campaign in their constituencies at the next election because he is a “vote winner”.

“You can see the true believers sit around him in the chamber,” one Tory staffer said.

There are even MPs who think there is a slim chance Johnson could stage a comeback if he survives a privileges committee probe into whether he misled MPs over the Partygate scandal.

However, one Tory backbencher hit back: “Some of my colleagues have this delusion that if we do really badly in the local elections Boris will have this Second Coming as we’ll all be begging for him to come back.

“It’s for the birds, frankly. He was never fit for office.”

The Tory MP said they did not have “buyer’s remorse” for backing Sunak despite their position in the polls and added: “Rishi is our best hope, our only hope, there is no viable alternative.”

Rishi Sunak
PETER NICHOLLS VIA GETTY IMAGES

Other MPs repeat the saying that “divided parties don’t win elections” and warn that the party remains ungovernable due to its diverse factions.

“That majority we won in 2019 saw so many people elected that aren’t actually proper Conservatives,” one backbencher said.

“There’s a big section of our party that didn’t have that experience or background.”

Such divisions are already causing Sunak headaches with rebellious MPs forcing him into U-turns over everything from house building targets to onshore wind.

Against this backdrop, businesses, PRs and donors are now seeking to establish relationships with the Labour Party.

Meanwhile, donations to the Tory Party have slumped to their lowest level in two years and the party is reportedly considering hiking its membership fees as it struggles to raise funds.

However, not all Tory MPs share the view that their party is doomed with one former minister saying: “We need to keep our heads down and focus on the economy.

“When the next election comes around we will have been in power for 14 years. We really lost our hand with the Truss government, we need to rebuild that.

“We’re in a better position than we were with Truss but it’s going to be tough. If we can turn the economy around then perhaps we are in with a shot.

“A few weeks ago I’d have said Labour were going to win the next election, now I am not so sure. It all depends on the economy.”

Another more optimistic MP said his party needed to stop scoring “own goals” and that their election hopes were not over until the “final whistle blows”.

A fresh poll by Savanta ComRes, released on Friday, might provide some comfort for Tory MPs after it found a 10-point swing from Labour to the Conservatives - a gap of just 11 per cent.

“Yes, people are annoyed with us but but I don’t think it’s a done deal with Labour” a Tory MP said.

UK

Labour celebrate victory over Tories in Hove by-election

9th December
By Daniel GreenDanGreen

Journo Digital reporter

Labour's Bella Sankey has been elected as the new councillor for Wish ward in Hove (Image: Brighton and Hove Labour)

Labour activists have celebrated gaining a council seat from the Conservatives in a landslide victory in a by-election.

Bella Sankey won the Wish ward by-election, beating the Conservative candidate Peter Revell by more than 750 votes.

The by-election was triggered following the death of Conservative councillor Garry Peltzer Dunn in September, who had served as a council representative in Hove for 50 years.

Former Brighton and Hove councillor and Green Party candidate Ollie Sykes placed third with 190 votes, followed by Liberal Democrat candidate Stewart Stone with 96.

Former Ukip leader Patricia Mountain, who led the right-wing populist party into the last general election, was last with just 34 votes.

Full results of the Wish ward by-election

• Bella Sankey (Labour) - 1,519
• Peter Revell (Conservative Party) - 756
• Ollie Sykes (Green Party) - 190
• Stewart Stone (Liberal Democrats) - 96
• Pat Mountain (Ukip) - 34

The result puts Labour on 16 councillors on the city council, with the Greens holding the most seats with 20, and the Conservatives on 11 - a record low since the creation of the council in 1996. There are also seven independent councillors.

Turnout in the ward was 34.2 per cent, down almost 17 per cent from the last election in 2019 which took place at the same time as elections across the city.

Bella Sankey, right, with Labour co-leader Carmen Appich and council chief executive Geoff Raw (Image: The Argus/LDR)

Some voters faced issues in casting their ballots after reports of postal votes not arriving due to strike action by the Royal Mail.

Residents who were affected by the latest industrial action were forced to have their voting packs re-issued and had to collect them in person due to the disruption.

The victory is the second council seat gain by Labour from the Conservatives this year, after the party won the Rottingdean Coastal by-election in May by 88 votes, with the Tories pushed into third place by an independent candidate.

Ms Sankey will only serve as a councillor for a few months before hitting the campaign trail once again for the city-wide local elections in May next year.

She also announced she is quitting her role as director of refugee charity Detention Action following her election to the city council.

The charity said: "We hope you'll join us in wishing Bella all the best in her future endeavours and in supporting Detention Action as we take our work from strength to strength."

The by-election is likely to be the last test of support for the main political parties ahead of the elections in around six months' time.