Trump plans to meet with striking autoworkers in Michigan instead of attending second GOP debate

SCAB AND A DOZEN SECRET SERVICE

MEG KINNARD
Mon, September 18, 2023 

Former President Donald Trump will travel to the battleground state of Michigan next week to meet with striking autoworkers instead of participating in the second Republican presidential debate, a person familiar with his plans said Monday.

Trump, who also skipped the first debate last month, has signaled that he is already focused on the 2024 election against President Joe Biden as he maintains a wide lead against his GOP rivals in primary polls. In recent days, he has been leaning hard into the strike, painting himself as sympathetic to the workers and accusing Biden of trying to destroy the car industry by expanding electric cars and other green energy policies.

The Sept. 27 trip, first reported by The New York Times, will also include a primetime speech, according to the person familiar with the plans who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity before they were made public.

That’s the date others in the GOP field will gather at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, for the cycle’s second primary debate.

When his fellow GOP contenders gathered in Milwaukee last month, Trump instead took part in a pre-taped interview with Tucker Carlson, which aired on the social media platform formerly known as Twitter during the debate’s first hour.

Trump has long sought to paint himself as a fighter for the “forgotten men and women” of the working class and spent much of his 2016 campaign campaigning in Rust Belt towns suffering from the shift away from mining and manufacturing. Earlier this year, he visited East Palestine, Ohio, after a train derailment, a visit aides have considered a key moment in his campaign as he worked to recover from midterm losses, and as they tried to move his focus away from his 2020 loss.

Ammar Moussa, a Biden campaign spokesperson, said Monday: “Donald Trump is going to Michigan next week to lie to Michigan workers and pretend he didn’t spend his entire failed presidency selling them out at every turn. Instead of standing with workers, Trump cut taxes for the super-wealthy while auto companies shuttered their doors and shipped American jobs overseas.” Moussa argued that Trump would have let auto companies go bankrupt during the financial crisis rather than bail them out, as President Barack Obama did in 2009.

On Monday, the United Auto Workers and Detroit’s Big Three carmakers resumed talks aimed at ending a strike that began last week. Stellantis described the discussion as “constructive.” A spokesperson for General Motors said representatives of the company and the United Auto Workers were continuing to negotiate.

Shawn Fain, the UAW president who has previously said that a second Trump presidency would be a “disaster," seemed to argue against Trump's efforts.

“Every fiber of our union is being poured into fighting the billionaire class and an economy that enriches people like Donald Trump at the expense of workers," Fain said in a statement issued Tuesday. "We can’t keep electing billionaires and millionaires that don’t have any understanding what it is like to live paycheck to paycheck and struggle to get by and expecting them to solve the problems of the working class.”

Dave Green, a UAW regional director in Ohio and Indiana, said the former president’s actions during his time in office give him “zero credibility” with organized labor now, adding that he doesn’t see a way the UAW would ever endorse Trump.

“His only intention here is to try and get votes for himself. And also divide our members against each other using political rhetoric,” Green told The AP on Monday.

Trump earlier this summer traveled to Michigan, where the Oakland County GOP honored him as its Man of the Decade. Asked about the strike in an interview that aired Sunday, he told NBC News that “auto workers will not have any jobs" because "electric cars, automatically, are going to be made in China.”

“The auto workers are being sold down the river by their leadership, and their leadership should endorse Trump,” he added.

___

Associated Press writers Jill Colvin and Joey Cappelletti contributed to this report

Auto suppliers say if the UAW strikes more plants, it could mean the end for many

Jamie L. LaReau, Detroit Free Press
Tue, September 19, 2023 

Pat Green is nervous. He has spent the past two years trying to hire talented people to fill the two plants in Grand Rapids operated by Cascade Die Casting Group, which makes aluminum and zinc diecasting for the automotive and appliance industries.

"We’ve got a good team now and I don’t want to lose people because it was hard to find good people," Green, who is CEO of the company, told the Detroit Free Press on Monday.

Pat Green, CEO of Cascade Die Casting Group in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

That's why on the fourth day of a historic United Auto Workers strike against the Detroit Three automakers, Green was intensely planning for ways to ride it out without having to lay off workers if the strike grows and stretches into weeks. He has good reason for planning. On Monday night UAW President Shawn Fain announced a new strike deadline of this Friday at noon. If Ford Motor Co., General Motors or Stellantis have not made substantial progress toward an agreement with the UAW by that time, Fain will expand the Stand Up Strike to more plants.

For Green's part, if that happens, he'll start by ending overtime at the company and then he'll ask for volunteers to take some time off with a reduced pay plan. It's something he started contemplating late last week.

The UAW's strike started at 11:59 p.m. Thursday when nearly 13,000 UAW workers across the three Detroit automakers walked out of three plants as part of the first wave of shutdowns until a new labor agreement is reached. Those plants are Ford Michigan Assembly Plant (Final Assembly and Paint only) in Wayne, Stellantis Toledo Assembly Complex in Ohio and GM's Wentzville Assembly in Missouri.

UAW Strikers slow a truck from entering the Ford Michigan Assembly Plant in Wayne on Monday, Sept. 18, 2023.

If the union and the automakers can't reach a tentative agreement, at some point the UAW has said it plans to strike more plants across the three companies. A broader and prolonged strike would mean parts suppliers couldn't keep production going if the vehicle assembly plants that use their parts are idled. No one is sure of just how long suppliers could hold out.

"We’re in better shape than most, but if others in the supply chain go down, we’ve got another crisis on our hands just like the chips crisis," Green said, referring to a recent shortage of semiconductor chips that crippled the industry. "If this stretches out to five or six weeks, there’s going to be real problems in the supply chain. And I could be wrong; it could be shorter than that.”
The first fallout

The Biden administration has been preparing to offer emergency economic aid to auto suppliers to mitigate any long-term damage caused by a prolonged strike, according to published reports.

But the strike has already had some impact. A component maker in Michigan, CIE Newcor, warned it may have to lay off 293 people.

German-based supplier ZF said that it has already had to lay off some workers at various sites, including in Michigan, said Tony Sapienza, ZF North America, Inc.’s head of communications. ZF supplies components for all the vehicles made at the three plants targeted so far in the strike, including the hybrid transmission to the Jeep Wrangler 4xe hybrid made at the Toledo facility.

Sapienza declined to say which of ZF's facilities have been affected or how many people ZF has laid off. ZF, which has North American offices in Northville, employs 11,000 people at five manufacturing sites and four technology centers in Michigan.

"The impact was immediate; we’ve had to slow production in a couple of areas," Sapienza told the Free Press. "If the strike were to broaden or last anything longer than one or two weeks, that would be a crisis for the supply chain. I’d be really concerned with tier 2 and tier 3 and their ability to stay solvent.”

Sapienza said a bigger and prolonged strike "would hurt" his company, but because of its size, it would be OK.

But “every plant that goes offline creates additional stress in the supply chain, and we really hope our customers and the UAW are taking this into consideration," Sapienza said.

U.S. Steel said Monday it is temporarily idling furnace B at the Granite City steel plant in Illinois as a "risk mitigation" in response to the UAW strike. The company said it is evaluating how many of its 1,450 employees there will be affected.

Keeping an eye on Unifor, too

All of this news comes as the UAW's counterpart in Canada, Unifor, is negotiating a new contract with Detroit automakers as well. Its current contract was slated to expire at 11:59 p.m. Monday. But in the early hours Tuesday morning, Unifor said it would keep talking with Ford, after the automaker made a “substantive offer” on a new labor contract as the former deal expired. Unifor is extending negotiations for a 24-hour period.

Unlike the UAW, Unifor is following tradition and has selected a target company — Ford — to negotiate a deal with first. It would use that agreement as a template for contracts with the other two. In the U.S., the UAW is negotiating with all three automakers separately, but simultaneously.

Around 4 p.m. Monday, Unifor National President Lana Payne said there was still no tentative agreement with Ford.

"While we remain at the table the likelihood of a strike increases with each passing hour," Payne said, adding that the union has advised more than 5,600 members at Ford facilities in Canada to prepare for all scenarios, including a strike.

After Ford's eleventh hour "substantive offer," Unifor said it will negotiate through the night, but members should continue to maintain strike readiness.

If Unifor does not get a tentative agreement and strikes in solidarity with the UAW, that will be a double whammy for parts suppliers.

“These are not normal times," Sapienza said. "We’re coming off of three years of stress on the supply chain and so we’re already in a fragile state. We’re keeping an eye on Unifor, for sure. … There’s only so much more stress the system can take.”

Layoffs could go into the thousands

The state of the supply chain is delicate. That's because it has had to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, which shut down the industry for eight weeks, then suppliers faced a massive shortage of semiconductor chips used in a variety of car parts. Since early last year many suppliers have struggled to hire and retain workers.

Joe Petrillo, director of business development and advanced engineering at Meridian Lightweight Technologies in Plymouth, said the company is a global supplier of lightweight cast metal parts to many automakers including the Detroit Three. So the strike is a concern because of the interconnection of the supply chain from the tier 1 suppliers — those that supply parts directly to the carmakers — down to the smaller tier 2 and tier 3 suppliers, those who supply components to the tier 1 group.

"We are monitoring the events and checking in with our suppliers and customers," Petrillo said. "In our view, an escalation of events that leads to a prolonged strike that possibly idles all the Detroit Three (manufacturing) plants, may prove to be the last Jenga block on a supply base that has been stressed to the max, having to overcome COVID shutdowns, 'stop-and-go production' due to chip and part shortages, while still trying to work its way through a constrained manufacturing labor market."

Alicia Carter of Westland strikers outside of the Ford Michigan Assembly Plant in Wayne on Monday, Sept. 18, 2023.

Glenn Stevens, executive director of MICHauto, the group that advocates for the statewide automotive industry, said he has been talking to suppliers for a couple months and they have all been preparing for a strike scenario for some time.

“Some much more proactively than others, but nobody was flying blind anticipating that there might not be a work stoppage,” Stevens said.

There are about 1,000 supplier facilities in Michigan, he said, noting that 96 of the top 100 suppliers to the North American auto market either have their headquarters or a facility in Michigan. So if the strike expands to other automaker plants and lasts into weeks, the job layoffs could reach into tens of thousands.

"You have the direct employment and you have the multiplier affect of each of the automotive jobs and that is between six to 10 people for every one automaker job, so it’s substantial," Stevens said. "This is the largest industry in our economy. It has an economic contribution of over $300 billion annually to the state of Michigan.
The potential impact

The larger suppliers are likely more protected than the smaller ones from strike fallout, said Laurie Harbour, CEO of Harbour Results, Inc. That's because they often have other customers from other industries to keep business going. They can move people around and change up schedules to avoid massive layoffs.

Laurie Harbour, CEO of Harbour Results, Inc.

"I talked to several companies last Friday and most said little to no impact yet," Harbour said. "Any one program, which is what you’re looking at with the (automakers), is not going to create massive layoffs but come tomorrow or the next day if (UAW's Fain) closes more plants and we get to a significant product like the (Ford) F-150 pickup, then you’re going to see more layoffs."

Because the sales volume of the F-150 is so important, if the union were to strike the plants that build Ford's big seller, "you’ll see thousands of layoffs because you have so many supplier plants and sub-suppliers," Harbour said.

"The fact that it’s happening in this spotty fashion is actually better for the supplier community," Harbour said. "But every day or week that goes by you could see more and more layoffs."

Big auto suppliers react

At giant tier 1 auto supplier Magna International, leaders are closely monitoring the situation, said Dave Niemiec, Magna spokesman. The company has about 12,450 employees in Michigan. Niemiec said it is premature to comment on any specific impact the strike may have on its operations.

"However, we have focused considerable attention on contingency planning to proactively address any temporary business disruptions to our operations," Niemiec said. "If that time comes, we are prepared in terms of temporarily scaling back production on affected programs as efficiently as possible, while being equally prepared to ramp up quickly when ready. In the meantime, we remain hopeful that the parties will be able to reach amicable agreements and the disruption and potential impact will be minimal."

When asked of any impact from the strike on Lear, spokesman Brian Corbett said, "At this time, we’re not commenting on the UAW strike."

Auto supplier ZF's North American headquarters in Northville, Michigan.

'We have to take action'

Harbour said most suppliers she's talked to are prepared or at least forming plans if the strike grows that include considering how to effectively keep producing, make scheduling changes to their shifts and have layoff strategies in place, even offering supplemental pay up to 70% of workers' salaries if they are laid off.

"Those are the ones who are financially strong and don’t want to lose their people," Harbour said. “It’s a daily challenge and you’ll evaluate everything every day: What is my forecast? What can I deliver to my customer? And run a little bit of inventory so that when the spigot comes back on, I have parts and ready to go.”

At Cascade Die Casting Group, Green said the company makes parts for the Detroit Three's SUVs and pickups. For example, it makes parts for the Jeep Grand Cherokee that Stellantis builds at the Mack Avenue Assembly Plant in Detroit. If the UAW strikes that plant or any of the plants that make the Detroit Three's heavy duty pickups, Green has to be ready.

"We know we can build some inventory for a period of time, but that’s a week or less so we’re going to have to start making plans to ask our employees to take time off almost immediately," Green said. "We’re waiting until one of the plants we supply parts to shuts down and we expect the union will shut down additional plants when they turn up the heat. When that happens, that’s when we have to take action.”

More: Canada's Unifor nears deadline in contract talks with Detroit 3: What to know

More: UAW's Fain: Biden, White House team not involved in negotiations with automakers

Jamie L. LaReau: jlareau@freepress.com. Follow her on Twitter @jlareauan. 

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Auto suppliers warn closures if UAW strikes more plants

A new breed of leaders are atop the largest US unions today. Here are some faces to know

United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain talks with members at the Labor Day parade in Detroit, Monday, Sept. 4, 2023. Fain has become an outspoken and aggressive union member and leader. At the time of his March election, Fain vowed to take a more confrontational stance in negotiating with big automakers — as well as clean up the union and unite members following a wide-ranging scandal that landed two former presidents in prison. 

(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

 Sean O'Brien, Teamsters General President, center, greets teamsters and United Parcel Service workers at a rally in downtown Los Angeles on July 19, 2023. O’Brien, a Boston-area native who grew up in a Teamsters family, worked with then-president James Hoffa (the son of Jimmy Hoffa, the former Teamsters leader) as the chief negotiator in the Teamsters' 2017 contract talks with UPS.

 (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes, File)


 Fran Drescher, president of SAG-AFTRA, is interviewed at a Writers Guild of America rally outside Paramount Pictures studio on May 8, 2023, in Los Angeles. In the ’90s, Drescher rose to fame as the co-creator and star of “The Nanny.” She is now the first president of the guild to preside over a film and TV actors strike since 1980. Actors have been on strike since July and, like the screenwriters who began picketing earlier this year, they're seeking better pay in an industry vastly changed due to streaming and the emergence of artificial intelligence. (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello, File

 Teamsters union president Sean O'Brien talks with President Joe Biden, at the White House in Washington on April 4, 2022. O’Brien, a Boston-area native who grew up in a Teamsters family, worked with then-president James Hoffa (the son of Jimmy Hoffa, the former Teamsters leader) as the chief negotiator in the Teamsters' 2017 contract talks with UPS. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Actor Joely Fisher, from left, SAG-AFTRA president Fran Drescher and Duncan Crabtree-Ireland, SAG-AFTRA national executive director and chief negotiator, take part in a rally by striking writers and actors outside Netflix studio in Los Angeles on July 14, 2023. Drescher took over as president of the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists in September 2021 and has become a firebrand, as well as the face and voice of the top creative minds in Hollywood, over the past few months.

 (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello, File)

Associated Press
Mon, September 18, 2023 

NEW YORK (AP) — There will be no Emmy Awards tonight and there are thousands of auto workers on picket lines in Missouri, Michigan and Ohio in a seemingly rapid reemergence of organized labor this year.

Unions have nowhere near the pull, or members, that they did decades ago, yet something has changed. There's no single explanation, but the boiling point we’re seeing today comes amid soaring costs of living and a widening gap between what workers and top executives are paid. Thousands of workers who were asked to make sacrifices during the pandemic even as corporate profits soared are now asking for a bigger piece of the pie.

Those demands have sparked grassroots organizing efforts across the country in the last year. And some of the nation’s largest unions have simultaneously been at the center of heated contract negotiations — with writers and actors hitting Hollywood picket lines, unionized auto workers striking at Detroit's Big Three and UPS reaching a new deal to avert a work stoppage that could have significantly disrupted the nation's supply chain.

Leading those efforts are new union leaders voted into power by workers that have seemingly run out of patience as they have a more difficult time making ends meet.

Here are some faces you should know.

Shawn Fain, United Auto Workers

Before Shawn Fain became the rallying voice for thousands of unionized auto workers striking at major car companies today, he was an electrician for Chrysler in his hometown of Kokomo, Indiana.

Fain became president of United Auto Workers this year, but his time with the union began at that then-Chrysler plant in 1994. Two of Fain’s grandparents were GM UAW retirees and one grandfather also worked at Chrysler, the union says. A biography on the UAW website notes that Fain “always carries one of his grandfather’s pay stubs with him" to remember where he came from.

Fain won a tight election to lead the UAW promising a more confrontational stance with big automakers. He vowed to clean up the union and unite members following a wide-ranging scandal that landed two former presidents in prison.

Fain has engaged aggressively with General Motors, Ford and Stellantis (formerly Fiat Chrysler). Months of contentious contract talks erupted into targeted strikes last week against all three Detroit automakers for the first time in the union's history.

The union under Fain has threatened to hit more plants if there is not enough movement from automakers during negotiations. The UAW wants across-the-board wage increases of 36% over four years, about twice what automakers are offering.


Even Fain has acknowledged that union demands are audacious, but he says automakers are raking in billions and can afford them.

“They could double our raises and not raise car prices and still make millions of dollars in profits,” Fain said last week. “We’re not the problem. Corporate greed is the problem.”

Sean O'Brien, International Brotherhood of Teamsters

Much of what you need to know about Teamsters president Sean O'Brien is right there in his handle for X/Twitter: @TeamstersSOB. Yes, those are O’Brien’s initials, sort of, but the underlying message is clear.

No one understands that better than UPS and perhaps James Hoffa, (son of the notorious Teamsters leader Jimmy Hoffa who disappeared in 1975), who was unseated by union members seeking a major leadership change.

O’Brien, a Boston-area native who grew up in a Teamsters family, worked with then-president Hoffa as the chief negotiator in the Teamsters' 2017 contract talks with UPS, but Hoffa abruptly fired him. The contract agreement was widely criticized by members and passed only through a procedural technicality, with a majority of votes cast in opposition.

O’Brien announced a union presidential campaign in 2021 against Hoffa, who soon bowed out. The network of reform-minded union leaders O’Brien assembled helped to elect him easily.

O'Brien immediately zeroed in on UPS and sought to right in their contract what many in the union saw as numerous wrongs. The Teamsters secured a lucrative contract last month that boosted wages and eliminated a second, lower-paid tier for some drivers. The winning margin: 86%.

O'Brien's UPS campaign appears to be a prelude to organizing delivery drivers for the online behemoth, Amazon.com.

“This is the template for how workers should be paid and protected nationwide, and nonunion companies like Amazon better pay attention,” O’Brien said.

Fran Drescher, SAG-AFTRA

Fran Drescher rose to fame as the co-creator and star of “The Nanny” in the ’90s. She's become the first president of Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists to preside over a strike since 1980.

Actors have been on picket lines since July and along with screenwriters who struck earlier this year, they're seeking better pay in an industry vastly changed due to streaming and the emergence of artificial intelligence.

Since becoming president of SAG-AFTRA in 2021, Drescher has become a firebrand voice for the top creative minds in Hollywood.

Drescher told The Associated Press that this moment in Hollywood is about the entire world of work, and a larger stand against corporate leaders who value shareholders over the people who create their product.

“At some point you have to say no more,” she said in recent interview. “I think it’s a conversation now about the culture of big business, and how it treats everybody up and down the ladder in the name of profit.”

Unlike the writers’ negotiations, the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, which represents major studios, has yet to resume talks with the actors guild.

Writers Guild of America Leaders

Screenwriters have been on strike since early May — far surpassing the landmark 2007-2008 work stoppage that last ground Hollywood productions to a halt.

Talks between WGA leadership and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers resumed last month, but haltingly. Those on strike seek more pay, the use of smaller writing staffs for shorter seasons of television shows, and control over artificial intelligence in the screenwriting process.

Today, news and documentary writer Michael Winship is the president of the Writers Guild of America East. TV writer and former journalist Lisa Takeuchi Cullen, WGAE’s current vice president, will become the next president after voting closes later this week.

Takeuchi Cullen, whose previous TV credits include “The Ordained” and “Law & Order: SVU,” tweeted last month that, “I will lead @WGAEast in our epic battle for fair pay."

“This is not your father’s Council. Your elected representatives are tireless, passionate, and in the thick of our careers," she wrote. "We have skin in the game. We get our members’ issues because they are ours too.”

Meredith Stiehm, a writer and executive producer who created the CBS procedural “Cold Case,” has been president of the Writers Guild of America West since 2021. Stiehm is running for reelection against challenger Rich Talarico (“Key & Peele”), with voting set to close Tuesday.

A night with striking UAW picketers involves laughter, dancing — and sleep deprivation

Phoebe Wall Howard, Detroit Free Press
Updated Fri, September 15, 2023

Temperatures dropped to 52 degrees after 3:30 a.m. Friday and all the TV camera crews were gone.

Striking UAW members remained.

Factory workers carried their picket signs at gates outside Ford's Michigan Assembly Plant in Wayne, hugging each other and laughing and chanting and even dancing on Michigan Avenue as thousands of UAW workers from three Ford, GM and Stellantis auto plants in Michigan, Ohio and Missouri started a historic strike against the Detroit Three.

Factory workers at Michigan Assembly endured six-hour strike shifts that began at midnight Thursday with plans to continue non-stop every day until workers reach a deal with Ford Motor Co. Their four-year labor contract expired at 11:59 p.m. Thursday. And while members on the picket line talked of deserving better wages and benefits, few criticized the company or its executives directly.

Horns honked with every car and truck that passed, it seemed all night. People streamed in and out of the UAW Local 900 union hall across the street from the factory that builds the Bronco SUV and Ranger pickup.

"This is what it's gonna take to get to where we need to be," said Dwayne Walker, 60, of Westland, president of UAW Local 900. "Now is our time. If not now, when?"

More: UAW strike 2023 against Detroit automakers: Live updates, news from the picket sites
'It feels different'

UAW President Shawn Fain had been and gone, mobbed by throngs and flanked by press that could be heard speaking various languages. He spent time talking to the press but he remained on site and talked with members and their supporters into the night.

"I love what you're doing, leading the way for us," Jean Taylor, 63, of Wayne told Fain. He smiled.

Jean Taylor of Wayne, a Hi-Lo driver for 30 years at Ford's Woodhaven Stamping Plant, showed up at the Michigan Assemby Plant to support striking workers. She is standing outside the UAW Local 900 hall on Sept. 15, 2023.

Taylor, a retired Hi-Lo driver who spent three decades working for Ford at Woodhaven Stamping Plant, went to the strike site to support the UAW. She said she felt overwhelmed by the feeling of unity on Friday morning. "It feels different to me because young people are coming together. They understand the union, the cause and the fight.
Got faith

Inside the union hall, a father and son who work at the plant picked up signs for picketing. Their shifts aren't until next week and they came early.

"This is a historical moment. You have to stand up for what you want," said Chris Trotter, 48, of Brighton, who has worked in the stamping plant for 10 years. "It's all gonna work out if you've got faith."

Chris Trotter Jr., left, and his father Chris Trotter, of Brighton, seen here on Friday, Sept. 15, 2023 at UAW Local 900, each work at Ford's Michigan Assembly and each has strike duty.

Chris Trotter Jr., 18, of Brighton, who began working in body shop assembly at the same plant as his father in May, said, "I think it takes a lot of work, time and effort to get what you want."

As they passed through the exit, a big group of factory workers from the Dearborn Truck Plant came into the union hall to pick up posters and signs. They had finished building the Ford F-150 pickup and wanted to walk the strike line.
Up for 21 hours so far

Ebony Kennedy, 47, of Inkster, works in the Michigan Assembly Plant's quality department when she's not organizing the hall to support striking workers. She fills the coffee pot, stacks styrofoam cups and puts out miniature bags of Doritos, Fritos and Ruffle chips.

She hadn't slept in 21 hours.

Coffee is ready for striking workers at the UAW Local 900 hall across the street from Ford Michigan Assembly on Sept. 15, 2023.

The uncertainty of the situation is hard, Kennedy said.

"In 2019, it was raining and we brought ponchos" to GM workers on strike," she said. "Now it's us. We collect things all the time for other people, and now we're collecting for ourselves. I thought we'd be donating."

While taking care of her own members, she's also preparing for Christmas, when the union will adopt about 250 children identified by childcare agencies, schools and members.

To maintain her energy, she sticks to a Keto diet and avoids sugar. "You feel lighter. I have hummus and chicken and snack all day."
'It's gonna be OK'

These factory workers sometimes refer to themselves as industrial athletes. They work 10-hour shifts, stand on their feet for 10 to 12 hours and navigate repetitive motion. Still, even Day 1 of a strike is exhausting.

Michael Miller, 26, of Monroe, came into the union hall with a red nose after walking all the gates to check on picketers. As a strike captain, he needs to make sure every member is working the strike shift in order to earn the $500 a week strike pay and get health insurance.

Michael Miller of Monroe, seen here on Friday, Sept. 15 at the UAW Local 900 hall, works at Michigan Assembly.

"For us young guys, everyone thinks we make good money. We're striking so we don't have to go somewhere else. In the 1990s, people earned $30 an hour. It's the same 20 years later. Houses were $50,000 then and they're $250,000 now," Miller said. "A lot of people didn't want to strike. Everyone says we're selfish. We want what's right. We build a (Ford) truck every 52 seconds, 600 times a day. People have no idea what it's like to work here."

Leaning back in a chair in an early empty hall, he said, "This is a tough time. Life in general. We need to let people know it's gonna be OK. Everyone is going through a lot right now."

More: Experts weigh implications of UAW strike strategy
Built Ford Tough

At any given time, 200 to 300 members of UAW Local 900 are assigned strike line duty. A man with an injured foot rested awhile, having walked the picket line. The coffee station was mobbed. And Chuck Browning, a UAW vice president and top negotiator for the Ford Department, stopped by the union hall after the strike began. Members said they were shocked he didn't leave until 2:30 a.m.

Dwayne Walker of Westland is president of UAW Local 900, home to the Michigan Assembly Plant workers who build the Ford Bronco, Ranger. He is seen here on Friday, Sept. 15, 2023 at the union hall.

Ford workers wore hoodies and jackets with an arm patch that said, "Built Ford Tough."

They talked with each other about their children working at Ford and General Motors and attending Wayne State University. They talked about paying child support, the cost of new cars, the UAW strike strategy and life.

"The check engine light comes on when you get to be this age," a 60-year-old factory worker said, sending those at his table into peels of laughter. Another man sipped soup from a Tupperware container.

Union leaders estimated 3,500 people had been at the union hall throughout the evening. Each strike shift had 147 people covering 18 or so (factory) gates, union organizers said.

Justin Skytta of Livonia is not a UAW member but was one of many young supporters from outside the auto industry at the strike outside Michigan Assembly on Sept. 15, 2023.

People were so spread out that it seemed so quiet in the hours before sunrise.

By 3:25 a.m., a picketer came in and said to no one in particular, "It's cold as hell out there but I'm warming up."

Tonya Hoskins of Westland, left, has worked at Ford for 27 years. Najoi Montgomery of Southfield has worked at Ford since 2020. Both UAW members are seen here at the Michigan Assembly strike site on Friday, Sept. 15, 2023.

Outside, Najoi Montgomery danced in the street (not alone) to the traditional hustle "I've changed" by Jaheim with Keyshia Cole. She has worked for Ford since 2020, putting seatbelts in Broncos and left headlights on Broncos and Rangers.

"I dance on the (assembly) line," Montgomery said. "Don't mind me."
No naps

A few feet away, train horns sounded in the distance.

Mike Kosciolek, 55, of Troy, a Hi-Lo driver for 24 years, sat near the plant's giant Ford sign holding his placard while listening with earbuds to the fantasy novel "Homeland," from The Dark Elf Trilogy by R.A. Salvatore.

"I'm here trying to make things better," he said.

As the clock ticked past 4:30 a.m., it felt like time was dragging. It was the calm before shift change at 6 a.m.

Mike Smith, vice president of UAW Local 900, has thousands of members who work at Michigan Assembly. He played a key role in strike logistics for the targeted strike on Friday, Sept. 15, 2023.

Mike Smith, 52, of Wayne told anyone who would listen that porta-potties should be delivered to the strike line on Friday.

"I haven't slept in 24 hours," said Smith, vice president of UAW Local 900. "I tried to lay down on the floor in my office."

It never happened.

"I wish I had time to shower and shave," he said.


This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Ford Michigan Assembly plant: UAW strikers laugh, dance, drink coffee

UAW: More plants could strike without progress in negotiations

Tue, September 19, 2023 

A United Auto Worker cheers at cars as they pass outside an entrance to the Stellantis's factory where the Jeep Wrangler and Gladiator are built in Toledo, Ohio on Monday. The UAW stet a new deadline of Friday to call more workers to strike. 

Photo by Aaron Josefczyk/UPI

Sept. 19 (UPI) -- United Auto Workers union President Shawn Fain said in a video Monday night if more progress has not been made with Detroit's Big Three automakers by noon Friday, more union workers will be called to strike.

About 12,700 union workers have been on strike approaching a week at General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis plants but Fain suggested that it has not resulted so far in negotiations progress.

"Autoworkers have waited long enough to make things right at the Big Three," Fain said in the video. "We're not waiting around, and we're not messing around. So, noon on Friday, Sept. 22, is a new deadline."

"Either the Big Three get down to business and work with us to make progress in negotiations, or more locals will be called on to stand up and go out on strike."

Workers are currently striking at GM's midsize truck and full-size van plant in Wentzville, Mo., Ford's Ranger midsize pickup and Bronco SUV plant in Wayne, Mich.; and the Stellantis' Jeep Wrangler and Gladiator plant in Toledo, Ohio.

Fain did not indicate in the video under what negotiation positions would prompt additional walkouts or which plants might be targeted next for strikes.

The union said its key demands focus on a 40% hourly pay increase, a reduced 32-hour workweek, a shift back to traditional pensions, and a restoration of cost-of-living adjustments.

UAW to strike at more US auto plants if no progress made by Friday

Updated Mon, September 18, 2023 

By David Shepardson and Joseph White

(Reuters) -The United Auto Workers union said it would announce on Friday more plants to strike if no serious progress was made in talks with Ford, General Motors and Chrysler-parent Stellantis, adding to pressure on the Detroit Three automakers.

Ford also faces a total strike at its smaller Canadian operations if no agreement is reached on Monday evening with the union representing about 5,600 Canadian auto workers, just days after workers at one of its U.S. plants walked out.

The UAW last week launched a targeted strike against Ford, GM and Stellantis, targeting one U.S. assembly plant at each company.

"We're not going to keep waiting around forever while they drag this out," UAW President Shawn Fain said in a video message late on Monday setting the new deadline after complaining about a lack of progress in recent talks. "We're not messing around."

Canadian union Unifor, whose contract with Ford expires at 11:59 EDT on Monday (0359 GMT on Tuesday), said there was still no deal just hours before the deadline.

Unifor National President Lana Payne said in a video posted on the union's website that Ford needed to do more to meet members' expectations and demands.

"If there is a strike, this will be a total strike," she said. "Every single one of Unifor's 5,600 members at Ford in Canada will be on picket lines."

Ford has two engine plants in Canada that build V-8 motors for F-series and Super Duty pickups assembled in the United States. It also has an assembly plant in Ontario.

A walkout by Canadian workers that shut down those engine plants could cripple U.S. production of Ford's most profitable vehicles, even if the UAW decides not to order walkouts at truck plants in Kentucky; Dearborn, Michigan; and Kansas City, Missouri.

"Ours is a small but highly consequential footprint for Ford operations in North America and this is our leverage, and we will use it," Payne said.

US NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE

Talks between the UAW and the Detroit automakers continued on Monday as a strike by auto workers over pay dragged on for a fourth day with little sign of progress toward a deal. Some 12,700 workers are striking at the three U.S. plants, including 3,300 at Ford's Wayne, Michigan assembly plant.

Union negotiators and representatives of GM, Ford and Stellantis held talks over the weekend in an attempt to end one of the most ambitious U.S. industrial labor actions in decades. On Monday, the UAW held talks with Stellantis though no deal was reached. It had scheduled a new round of talks with Ford for late afternoon.

Fain told NPR on Monday there were "minimal conversations over the weekend so the ball is in their court .... We have a long way to go."

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said it was premature to forecast the strike's impact on the economy, which would depend on how long the action lasted and what was affected.

The strikes have halted production at plants in Michigan, Ohio and Missouri that produce the Ford Bronco, Jeep Wrangler and Chevrolet Colorado, alongside other popular models.

Ford on Friday furloughed 600 workers who are not on strike at the Michigan Bronco plant because of the impact of the work stoppage. GM said it expected to halt operations at its Kansas car plant early this week because of the strike at its nearby Missouri plant, affecting 2,000 workers.

Analysts expect plants that build more profitable pickup trucks like Ford's F-150, GM's Chevy Silverado and Stellantis's Ram to be the next strike targets if the walkout continues.

The union and companies are at loggerheads over pay and benefits for workers. The three automakers have proposed 20% raises over the 4-1/2-year term of their proposed deals, though that is only half of what the UAW is demanding through 2027. The UAW at one point during the talks offered to lower its demand to 36%.

Besides higher wages, the UAW is also demanding shorter work weeks, restoration of defined benefit pensions and stronger job security as automakers make the shift to electric vehicles.

Separately, former President Donald Trump plans to skip the second Republican presidential debate and make a speech in Detroit on Sept. 27 to autoworkers and others discussing vehicle issues, an aide said.

(Reporting by David Shepardson and Ben Klayman; Additional reporting by Doina Chiacu and Jeff Mason; Editing by Alexander Smith, Richard Chang and Jamie Freed)

U.S. Steel to idle Granite City furnace B, blames UAW strike; steelworkers union rejects blame

Coke conveyors stand near the blast furnaces at U.S. Steel’s Granite City Works in Granite City, Ill., Oct. 21, 2015.

LUKE SHARRETT, NEW YORK TIMES

By Mark Maxwell and Sam Clancy – KSDK
Sep 18, 2023

United States Steel Corp. is temporarily idling furnace B at its Granite City steel plant, the company said Monday.

According to a statement from a U.S. Steel spokeswoman, the move is "risk mitigation" in response to the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike that began last week.

"As a result, we have decided to temporarily idle blast furnace ‘B’ at Granite City Works and are reallocating volumes as needed to other domestic facilities to efficiently meet customer demand," the statement said.

United Steelworkers Local 1899 President Dan Simmons said the union is still working to understand how many workers could be affected. He estimated perhaps 300 to 350 of the plant’s workers could be laid off, though he cautioned that figure was preliminary.

“They’re saying this is a temporary idle,” he said. “It won’t be a total plant shutdown.”

The U.S. Steel spokeswoman said the company anticipated the layoffs would last less than six months.

A spokesperson said in an email Monday to the Business Journal that the company expects the layoffs to happen in phases "as equipment is safely, temporarily idled."

"Impacts on specific areas of the facility – and the exact number of employees impacted -- are currently under review," the spokesperson said. "There are currently approximately 1,450 employees at Granite City Works, but we do not believe that many will be impacted."

The announcement comes four days after the UAW began its strike. About 10% of of the union's workers went on strike Friday at three different plants across the country, including General Motors' plant in Wentzville, but Simmons said he isn't buying U.S. Steel's explanation for the move.

“Our order book here was solid,” Simmons said. “It kind of caught us all off guard. It is total bull [expletive] that they’re trying to point to UAW. They’re looking at disruptions down the road. They had this planned for a while.”

A second furnace at the site – furnace A – has been idle since the pandemic started in 2020.

The idling of furnace B comes more than a year after U.S. Steel announced a plan to sell the two blast furnaces at its Granite City Works, and also said at that time that it plans to have only one finishing mill there.

U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) and SunCoke Energy announced in June 2022 a nonbonding letter of intent on the sale of two blast furnaces at Granite City that would eventually allow SunCoke to manufacture pig iron there for U.S. Steel. U.S. Steel told the Pittsburgh Business Times, a sister publication to the St. Louis Business Journal, that the sale of the blast furnaces would result in an estimated 550 jobs remaining out of 1,500 at Granite City Works.

U.S. Steel said in August that it was reviewing proposals as part of a strategic review it began last month after rejecting a bid by Ohio-based rival steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF) and its support from United Steelworkers. U.S. Steel officials said in a second-quarter earnings call in late July that conversations with SunCoke over the Granite City plant were continuing.

Go here for KSDK's full report.

Libya demonstrations turn flood aftermath into political storm

Reuters
Updated Tue, September 19, 2023 








Libyans protest outside mosque one week after deadly floods in Derna

(Reuters) - The aftermath of Libya's worst ever natural disaster was evolving into a political storm on Tuesday, after demonstrators furious at the failure to protect their city from a flood torched the home of the mayor of Derna.

The administration in charge of eastern Libya said it had suspended the mayor and fired the entire city council, after angry demonstrators demanded punishment for officials who left residents in harm's way.

The overnight protests marked the first unrest on the ground since a flood wiped out the centre of the city leaving thousands of residents confirmed dead and uncounted thousands more still missing. Following the protests, communications links with Derna were abruptly cut off on Tuesday morning.

Some journalists for media that have been broadcasting live from the city for days said on Tuesday that they had been ordered out. Officials in the eastern administration played this down or denied it.

Hichem Abu Chkiouat, minister of civil aviation in the administration that runs eastern Libya, told Reuters by phone that some reporters had been told to stay away from rescue operations, but denied this was linked to security or politics.

"It is an attempt to create better conditions for the rescue teams to carry out the work more smoothly and effectively," he said. "The large number of journalists has become an impediment to the work of rescue teams."

A spokesperson for the state-owned Libyan Telecommunications Holding Company, Mohamed Albdairi, told Libya Alahrar television that the communications had gone down in the area because some fiber optic cables had been severed. Engineers were investigating whether this was due to excavation work or sabotage, and looking to repair it, he said.

Monday's demonstration was the first open expression of mass discontent since dams burst above Derna in a storm on Sept 10, unleashing a torrent of water that swept away the centre of the city.

Demonstrators crowded into the square in front of Derna's landmark gold-domed Sahaba mosque chanting slogans. Some waved flags from atop the mosque's roof. Later in the evening, they torched the house of Mayor Abdulmenam al-Ghaithi, his office manager told Reuters.

The government administering eastern Libya said Ghaithi had been suspended as mayor, and all members of the Derna city council had been dismissed from their posts and referred to investigators.

A week after the disaster, swathes of Derna remain a muddy ruin, roamed by stray dogs, with families still searching for missing bodies in the rubble.

Angry residents say the disaster could have been prevented. Officials acknowledge that a contract to repair the dams after 2007 was never completed, blaming insecurity in the area.

Libya has been a failed state for more than a decade, with no government exercising nationwide authority since Muammar Gaddafi was toppled in 2011. Derna has been controlled since 2019 by the Libyan National Army which holds sway in the east. For several years before that it was in the hands of militant groups, including local branches of Islamic State and al Qaeda.

The demonstrators denounced the eastern-based parliament speaker Aguila Saleh, who has called the flood a natural catastrophe that could not be avoided.

"Aguila we don't want you! All Libyans are brothers!" protesters chanted.

Mansour, a student taking part in the protest, said he wanted an urgent investigation into the collapse of the dams, which "made us lose thousands of our beloved people".

Taha Miftah, 39, said the protest was a message that "the governments have failed to manage the crisis", and that the parliament was especially to blame.

The full scale of the death toll has yet to emerge, with thousands of people still missing. Officials have given widely varying death tolls. The World Health Organization has confirmed 3,922 deaths.

(Reporting by Reuters; Writing by Tom Perry and Peter Graff, Editing by Alexandra Hudson, William Maclean)

Libya floods: Why damage to Derna was so catastrophic

the Visual Journalism team and BBC Verify - BBC News
Thu, September 14, 2023 

Devastation in Derna


The Derna flooding death toll could reach 20,000 according to the city's mayor.

Entire neighbourhoods disappeared into the sea as a huge tsunami-like torrent of water swept the port city in eastern Libya.

Survivors described the situation as "beyond catastrophic".

BBC Verify and the BBC's Visual Journalism team have been analysing some of the reasons why the floods caused such catastrophic damage in Derna.
Record rainfall

The water was brought by Storm Daniel which hit Libya on Sunday.

The storm - a Mediterranean hurricane-like system known as a medicane - brought more than 400mm of rain to parts of the north-east coast within a 24-hour period.

That is an extraordinary deluge of water for a region which usually sees about 1.5mm throughout the whole of September.

Libya's National Meteorological Centre says it is a new rainfall record.

Satellite data shows the extent of some of the rainfall across the region - although in many places the amount recorded on the ground was higher.


Map showing the heavy rainfall over northern Libya and highlighting Derna and Benghazi

It's too early to attribute with certainty the severity of this storm to rising global temperatures.

However, climate change is thought to be increasing the frequency of the strongest medicanes.

Prof Liz Stephens, an expert in climate risks and resilience at Reading University in the UK, says scientists are confident that climate change is supercharging the rainfall associated with such storms.

A really simple guide to climate change


Four ways climate change affects extreme weather


Central bridges and communities along riverbed were swept away
Two dams overwhelmed

The Wadi Derna river runs from Libya's inland mountains, through the city of Derna and into the Mediterranean.

It is dry for much of the year, but the unusually heavy rain overwhelmed two crucial dams and destroyed several bridges.


Satellite image shows dam and buildings on usually dry riverbed

Residents of the city, who had been ordered by the local authorities to stay in their homes, reported hearing a loud blast before the city was engulfed in water.

"The dams would have held back the water initially, with their failure potentially releasing all the water in one go.

"The debris caught up in the floodwaters would have added to the destructive power," says Prof Stephens.

The upper dam had a storage capacity of 1.5 million cubic metres of water, whilst the lower dam could hold 22.5 million cubic metres.

Each cubic metre of water weighs about one tonne (1,000kg), so 1.5 million cubic metres of water would weigh 1.5 million tonnes.

Combine that weight with moving downhill, and it can produce enormous power. Witnesses have said that the waters were nearly three metres in places.

It is estimated that six inches (20cm) of fast moving flood-water is enough to knock someone off their feet, and 2ft (60cm) is enough to float a car. So it is no surprise that whole buildings were taken out in the flood.


Analysis of satellite images shows how many buildings affected

Experts say it's too early to know whether the extreme rainfall was simply too much for the dams to handle, or whether the condition of the structures also played a role.

Based on their observations, the dams are likely to be made from dumped and compacted soil or rocks, which is not as strong as concrete.

"These dams are susceptible to overtopping [when water exceeds a dam's capacity], and while concrete dams can survive overtopping, rockfill dams usually cannot," says Exeter University's Prof Dragan Savic, an expert in hydraulic engineering in the UK.

It appears that the upper dam failed first, according to structural engineer Andrew Barr.

He says the water then probably flowed down the rocky river valley towards the lower dam before overwhelming it, resulting in the sudden and catastrophic flooding of the city which lies trapped between mountains and the sea.

A research paper published last year on the hydrology of the Wadi Derna Basin highlighted that the area "has a high potential for flood risk", on the basis of likely historical flood volumes, and that the dams "needed periodic maintenance".

The report, by civil engineering expert Abdelwanees AR Ashoor from Libya's University of Omar Al-Mukhtar, said that "the current situation in the Derna valley basin requires officials to take immediate measures, carrying out regular maintenance of the existing dams, because in the event of a huge flood, the result will be disastrous for the residents of the valley and the city".

‏Several experts have highlighted the possible role that the political instability in Libya has played in the upkeep of the dam.

As rescue efforts in the city continue, Libyan journalist Johr Ali, who has spoken to survivors in the city, told the BBC: "People are hearing the cries of babies underground, they don't know how to get to them.

"People are using shovels to get the bodies from underneath the ground, they are using their own hands. They all say it's like doomsday."

Car engulfed in mud and rubble

Toys seen in damaged shop

Produced by Chris Clayton, Mike Hills, Paul Sargeant, Tural Ahmedzade, Kady Wardell, Gerry Fletcher, Filipa Silverio and Erwan Rivault. Additional reporting: Mark Poynting, Peter Mwai, Alex Murray, and Esme Stallard.

'Devastating disaster': Study links climate change and horrific flood that killed thousands

Doyle Rice, USA TODAY
Tue, September 19, 2023

Thousands of people died in a horrific flood in Libya earlier this month, a tragedy that was worsened by human-caused climate change, a study released Tuesday found.

In fact, the warming world made the Libyan disaster 50 times more likely, with "building in flood plains, poor dam maintenance and other local factors turning the extreme weather into a humanitarian disaster," the study said.

Julie Arrighi, director at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, said “this devastating disaster shows how climate change-fueled extreme weather events are combining with human factors to create even bigger impacts, as more people, assets and infrastructure are exposed and vulnerable to flood risks."

TOPSHOT - A boy pulls a suitcase past debris in a flash-flood damaged area in Derna, eastern Libya, on September 11, 2023. Flash floods in eastern Libya killed more than 2,300 people in the Mediterranean coastal city of Derna alone, the emergency services of the Tripoli-based government said on September 12. (Photo by AFP) (Photo by -/AFP via Getty Images) ORIG FILE ID: AFP_33UV7CW.jpgMore

The study was prepared by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group, which does quick analyses of weather and climate events to determine what, if any, role human-caused climate change may have had.
How storms led to disaster

In early September, a storm that affected Spain and a separate system named Storm Daniel, which formed in the eastern Mediterranean, brought "large amounts of rain over a 10-day period to several countries, including Spain, Greece, Bulgaria, Turkey and Libya.


"The heavy rain led to massive floods across the region, killing four people in Bulgaria, five in Spain, seven in Turkey, and 17 in Greece." according to a statement from the WWA.

However, the greatest disaster occurred in Libya, where the floods caused the collapse of two dams. The exactnumber of casualties is still not clear as the death toll has varied, with government officials and aid agencies giving tallies ranging from about 4,000 to 11,000 dead.

Meteorologists say Storm Daniel was a particularly potent "medicane," which is shorthand for Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone.
The role of climate change

The scientists in the new study found that human-caused climate change made the disaster in Libya up to 50 times more likely to happen, with up to 50% more rain during the period, as a result of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

Scientists used established peer-reviewed methods to determine the contribution of climate change to the floods.

Overall, according to the WWA, the event is still "extremely unusual," and can only be expected to occur around once in 300-600 years, in the current climate.

In Libya, "a combination of several factors – including long-lasting armed conflict, political instability, potential design flaws and poor maintenance of dams – all contributed to the disaster." The interaction of these factors, and the very heavy rain that was worsened by climate change, created the extreme death and destruction, the study said.
'Bad luck' and how climate change is 'loading the dice'

According to Yale Climate Connections' meteorologist Jeff Masters, who was not part of the study but wrote about the connection between climate change and Libya last week, the "flood disaster was driven in part by the meteorological bad luck of Daniel coming ashore directly atop a compact zone of higher elevation.

"That’s only part of the story, though. Human-induced climate change is loading the dice, enhancing the ability of tropical cyclones and similar storms to produce extreme rain as they draw more water vapor out of oceans into a warming atmosphere."

Contributing: The Associated Press

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Climate change had huge role in Libya flooding, study says

Climate change made Libya flooding 50 times more likely: Report

JON HAWORTH
Tue, September 19, 2023 

Climate change made Libya flooding 50 times more likely: Report

Climate change was one of the main factors that led to the catastrophic flooding in Libya, according to a new report.

World Weather Attribution (WWA), a collaboration of scientists from all over the globe, released a new report on Tuesday saying that human-caused climate change played a role in the devastating heavy rainfall event earlier this month in the Mediterranean.

“Human-caused warming made the heavy rainfall up to 10 times more likely in Greece, Bulgaria and Türkiye and up to 50 times more likely in Libya, with building in flood plains, poor dam maintenance and other local factors turning the extreme weather into ahumanitarian disaster,” the statement said.

While the WWA says that it is impossible to blame humans entirely as a direct cause of a natural disaster, it is emissions made and manufactured by humans and the warming of our planet that have increased the severity of these events.

“To quantify the effect of climate change on the heavy rain in the region, scientists analysed climate data and computer model simulations to compare the climate as it is today, after about 1.2°C of global warming since the late 1800s, with the climate of the past, following peer-reviewed methods,” the WWA said on Tuesday.

PHOTO: Rescuers and relatives of victims set up tents in front of collapsed buildings in Derna, Libya, Monday, Sept. 18, 2023. (Muhammad J. Elalwany/AP)

“For Greece, Bulgaria and Türkiye, the analysis showed that climate change made the heavy rain up to 10 times more likely to happen, with up to 40% more rain, as a result of human activities that have warmed the planet,” the report from the WWA concluded.

The report doesn’t place the blame squarely on climate change, however, and concluded that human error was another major element that contributed to the severity of the event.

Although the heavy rainfall in Libya is unusual and rare even factoring in climate change, the report highlighted poor dam maintenance, land use, armed conflict and political instability as factors that all played a significant role in the humanitarian disaster.

PHOTO: Rescuers and relatives of victims set up tents in front of collapsed buildings in Derna, Libya, Monday, Sept. 18, 2023. (Muhammad J. Elalwany/AP)

“The study also found that the destruction caused by the heavy rain was much greater due to factors that included construction in flood-prone areas, deforestation, and the consequences of the conflict in Libya,” the report said.

“The Mediterranean is a hotspot of climate change-fueled hazards. After a summer of devastating heatwaves and wildfires with a very clear climate change fingerprint, quantifying the contribution of global warming to these floods proved more challenging,” Friederike Otto, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science at Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, said. “But there is absolutely no doubt that reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience to all types of extreme weather is paramount for saving lives in the future.”

MORE: Hurricane Lee becomes rare storm to rapidly intensify from Cat 1 to Cat 5 in 24 hours

Alex Hall, director of UCLA Center for Climate Science, told ABC News that events like the one in Libya are much more likely to occur because of greenhouse gas emissions of the past 150 years and that “there is now about 10% more water vapor in the atmosphere,” Hall explained that this serves as extra fuel for storms and leads to more intense precipitation.

Said Julie Arrighi, Director at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre: “This devastating disaster shows how climate change-fueled extreme weather events are combining with human factors to create even bigger impacts, as more people, assets and infrastructure are exposed and vulnerable to flood risks.”


Horrific Libya flooding made up to 50 times more likely by planet-warming pollution, scientists find

Laura Paddison, CNN
Tue, September 19, 2023 at 7:00 AM MDT·5 min read

The deadly rainfall which caused catastrophic flooding and destruction in Libya, as well as other parts of the Mediterranean, this month was made much more likely and worse by the human-caused climate crisis, in addition to other human factors, according to a new scientific analysis.

The World Weather Attribution initiative – a team of scientists that analyze the role of climate change in the aftermath of extreme weather events – found planet-warming pollution made the deadly rainfall in Libya up to 50 times more likely to occur and 50% worse. They also found the extreme rainfall that hit Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria was made up to 10 times more likely.

Destruction from the rainfall was worsened by a tangle of other factors, including inadequate infrastructure and building in flood-prone areas, according to the analysis published Tuesday.

Extreme rainfall has swept across large parts of the Mediterranean region since the start of the month.

On September 3, Spain saw huge amounts of rain over the course of just a few hours, leading to floods which killed at least six people. Then Storm Daniel formed, causing severe flooding over four days in Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria.

A man carries a girl and a dog in the flooded village of Palamas near the city of Karditsa, central Greece, on September 8, 2023. - Angelos Tzortzinis/AFP/Getty Images

A collapsed bridge near the Pinios River Delta on the coast of Larissa, Greece, ten days after Storm Daniel, on September 14, 2023. - Konstantinos Tsakalidis/SOOC/AFP/Getty Images

At least 17 people died in Greece and large stretches of farmland in the central part of the country were left under water, causing damage experts say could take years to recover from. Storm Daniel also caused at least seven deaths in Turkey and four in Bulgaria.

By far the most catastrophic impacts, however, were in Libya.

Gaining energy from the unusually warm waters of the Mediterranean, Storm Daniel dumped record amounts of rainfall in parts of the country’s northeast, leading to the collapse of two dams and resulting in a 7-meter (23-foot) wave of water slamming into the city of Derna, sweeping people and buildings into the sea.

Official estimates suggest around 4,000 people were killed, while more than 10,000 remain missing.

To understand the impact of climate change on the likelihood and intensity of this heavy rainfall, WWA scientists analyzed climate data as well as climate models, which allow them to compare today’s climate – around 1.2 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels – to a world without climate change.

They found in Libya, not only did climate change make the extreme rainfall up to 50 times more likely, it also made it up to 50% more intense.

An event as severe as the one the country experienced is unusual even in today’s warmer climate, the report found, and can be expected around once in every 600 years.

Destroyed houses in the city of Derna on September 16, 2023, after a powerful storm and heavy rainfall hit Libya. - Zohra Bensemra/Reuters

A car is submerged in mud in Derna, Libya, on September 16, 2023 - Zohra Bensemra/Reuters

For Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria, climate change made the rainfall up to 10 times more likely and up to 40% heavier, the analysis found.

The kind of extreme rainfall this region experienced is likely to happen around once every 10 years, according to the report. Although for central Greece, which bore the brunt of the destruction between the three countries, it is only expected to happen around once in every 80 to 250 years.

The WWA scientists acknowledged that there remain uncertainties with the findings. It is not possible to definitively rule out the possibility the climate crisis had no impact on the floods, the report authors said. But, they added, there are “multiple reasons we can be confident that climate change did make the events more likely.”

Scientific research has long linked climate change to more intense rainfall. Studies have found that for every 1 degree Celsius of warming, the air can hold around 7% more moisture.

What united many of the places the analysis focused on was the collision of the climate crisis and high levels of vulnerability, the report found. In central Greece, many communities live in flood-prone areas. In Libya, a lethal cocktail of aging, poorly-maintained infrastructure, a lack of warnings and deep political fractures turned a crisis into a humanitarian catastrophe.

“Through these events we are already seeing how climate change and human factors can combine to create compounding and cascading impacts,” Maja Vahlberg, of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre and a report author, said on a call with reporters.

Steps can be taken to mitigate the risk, according to the report, including better early warning systems and evacuation plans.

“Reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience to all types of extreme weather is paramount for saving lives,” Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, at Imperial College London, said in a statement.

Karsten Haustein, a climate researcher at Leipzig University in Germany who was not involved in the study, said the findings show how rare these extreme rainfall events would have been in a world without climate change.

It’s “a remarkable result,” he told CNN.

Jasper Knight, a geoscientist at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, South Africa, also not involved in the study, said that the results shine a light on how climate change is affecting extreme events in the Mediterranean, a region which tends not to receive much attention.

But, he told CNN, “we also need more in-depth analysis based on longer and more accurate records.”

Climate change, conflict made Libya deluge more likely: study

Kelly MACNAMARA
Tue, September 19, 2023

The Libyan city of Derna was struck by flooding after heavy rains on September 10 overwhelmed two dams (Mahmud Turkia)

Climate change made torrential rains that triggered deadly flooding in Libya up to 50 times more likely, new research said Tuesday, noting that conflict and poor dam maintenance turned extreme weather into a humanitarian disaster.

An enormous wave of water struck the city of Derna after heavy rains on September 10 overwhelmed two dams, washing whole buildings and untold numbers of inhabitants into the Mediterranean Sea.

Scientists from the World Weather Attribution group said a deluge of the magnitude seen in northeastern Libya was an event that occurred once every 300-600 years.

They found that the rains were both more likely and heavier as a result of human-caused global warming, with up to 50 percent more rain during the period.

In a report looking at floods linked to Storm Daniel that swept across large parts of the Mediterranean in early September, they found that climate change made the heavy rainfall up to 10 times more likely in Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey and up to 50 times more likely in Libya.

But researchers stressed that other factors, including conflict and poor dam maintenance, turned the "extreme weather into a humanitarian disaster".

To unpick the potential role of global warming in amplifying extreme events, the WWA scientists use climate data and computer modelling to compare today's climate -- with roughly 1.2 degrees Celsius of heating since pre-industrial times -- to that of the past.

WWA scientists are normally able to give a more precise estimate of the role climate change has played -- or its absence -- in a given event.

But in this case they said the study was limited by a lack of observation weather station data, particularly in Libya, and because the events occurred over small areas, which are not as accurately represented in climate models.

That meant the findings have "large mathematical uncertainties", although the study said researchers were "confident that climate change did make the events more likely", because of factors including that current warming is linked to a 10-percent increase in rainfall intensity.

- 'Bigger impacts' -

"After a summer of devastating heatwaves and wildfires with a very clear climate change fingerprint, quantifying the contribution of global warming to these floods proved more challenging," said Friederike Otto of the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London.

"But there is absolutely no doubt that reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience to all types of extreme weather is paramount for saving lives in the future."

Daniel, which scientists said was the deadliest and costliest storm over the Mediterranean and Africa on record, formed in the eastern Mediterranean, causing deadly flooding across the region for the first 10 days of September.

The study said the magnitude of the impacts was driven by the vulnerability and exposure of communities and infrastructure.

For example, in central Greece, the damage was increased because cities are located in flood-prone areas.

In Libya, where the death toll in Derna alone has exceeded 3,300 and is expected to rise, the authors noted that "long-lasting armed conflict, political instability, potential design flaws and poor maintenance of dams all contributed to the disaster".

"This devastating disaster shows how climate change-fueled extreme weather events are combining with human factors to create even bigger impacts, as more people, assets and infrastructure are exposed and vulnerable to flood risks," said Julie Arrighi, director at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.

klm/imm/jm