UK
Trans church minister warns community in ‘greater danger’ after Sunak’s comments


Aisling Grace and Danielle Desouza, PA
Fri, 6 October 2023 

Members of the transgender community have criticised Rishi Sunak’s remarks at the Conservative Party conference, claiming his comments “put trans people in greater danger”.

The Prime Minister weighed in on debates about transgender rights during his speech in Manchester on Wednesday, saying: “We shouldn’t get bullied into believing that people can be any sex they want to be. They can’t, a man is a man and a woman is a woman. That’s just common sense.”

Methodist minister Dr Karl Rutlidge, 39, who is a transgender man, said he has faced “a difficult few days” following what he described as “transphobic” comments made by Government ministers at the Conservative Party conference.

Dr Karl Rutlidge said comments made by Rishi Sunak towards the transgender community were ‘appalling’ (Dr Karl Rutlidge/PA)

Mr Rutlidge, who is based in Kingston-upon-Thames, told the PA news agency: “It isn’t just Rishi Sunak who has made transphobic comments.

“Steve Barclay made comments about hospital wards… Suella Braverman made various inflammatory comments… followed by Rishi Sunak effectively dismissing the reality of trans lives and trans identities, which in the context of figures out showing that (transgender) hate crimes have gone up by 11% in the year ending March 2023 is appalling from the person who’s meant to set the tone as our Prime Minister.”

He said that these comments have the potential to empower those “who are already inclined towards transphobic attitudes” and “legitimises, potentially, even violence”.

“I think that having Government politicians make these kinds of comments puts trans people in greater danger,” he added.

“All I want to do is get on with my life with safety and dignity and peace.

“There’s so much more to me than the fact I happen to be trans and it feels like I’m treated like I’m not really a human being, like I’m an issue, and that’s incredibly difficult to deal with.

“I want to say to some of these politicians, ‘come and look me in the eye and talk to me as a real person’, because it just never seems to happen.”

Mr Rutlidge said comments made by Government ministers at the Conservative Party conference were ‘worse than I expected’ (Stefan Rousseau/PA)

Mr Rutlidge spoke about Brianna Ghey, a 16-year-old trans girl who was found with fatal stab wounds in February, adding that further violence towards the community “will only get worse”.

A transgender civil servant, who wished to remain anonymous, claimed that Rishi Sunak’s comments regarding transgender people at the Conservative Party conference are a “distraction” and “emboldening” transphobic people.

He told PA: “I would say the vast majority of people are far more bothered about the fact that their mortgages are doubling, that their food bills are doubling, they’re struggling to heat their homes and put food on the table, as opposed to anything to do with what is essentially other people’s medical history and medical background.”

A transgender civil servant claimed comments made about the transgender community at the Conservative Party conference are a ‘distraction’ (Danny Lawson/PA)

He claimed Mr Sunak’s speech “emboldens a certain sort of person that wants to be hostile towards us to think that they can be”.

“I’m openly trans on the internet but I’m not in day-to-day life, so no one knows and it’s no one’s business and no one has the right to know,” he said.

He continued: “It’s just pure dog-whistle politics, and they’ve got this distance that they’ve created where they don’t ever meet with any of us face to face.

“It’s all to do with ideology.”

A UK Government spokesperson said: “The Government has a proud history of advancing LGBT rights and one of the most robust legislative protection frameworks for LGBT people in the world.

“There is no place for hate crime in our society, it does not reflect the values of modern Britain, and we remain committed to ensuring these abhorrent offences are stamped out – which is why we have a robust framework to tackle it wherever it is found.

“However, we are clear that biological sex is fundamentally important to protecting single-sex spaces and providing appropriate healthcare as set out by ministers.”

Sunak is a bully, says Belgium’s trans deputy prime minister

James Crisp
Fri, 6 October 2023 

Petra De Sutter said Rishi Sunak’s comments were ‘hurtful and very disappointing’ - James Arthur Gekiere/AFP via Getty

Belgian’s transgender deputy prime minister has called Rishi Sunak a “bully” after he said a “man is a man” during his showpiece speech at the Conservative Party conference.

Petra De Sutter, the world’s first transgender cabinet minister, said Mr Sunak’s remarks on gender were “hurtful and very disappointing” and accused the Prime Minister of “fuelling transphobia”.

In his closing speech in Manchester on Wednesday, Mr Sunak claimed it was “common sense” to say that “a man is a man and a woman is a woman”.

“Hurtful and very disappointing,” Ms De Sutter wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, above a video of the speech.

“These words are fuelling transphobia and endangering the lives of many people around the world. Trans women are women, and in no way a threat to others.”

Ms De Sutter also appealed to Mr Sunak not to “join the real bullies” after he made the remarks – his most explicit on the subject – in his hour-long address to the Tory grassroots.

Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, whose party is leading the Tories in the polls, has struggled to explain his own stance on trans rights ahead of its conference, which begins this weekend.

Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary, also took aim at “gender ideology” in her speech, while Steve Barclay, the Health Secretary, said he would ban transgender patients being treated in single-sex wards.

Ms De Sutter, 60, is a member of the Green party and became a deputy prime minister in the coalition government in 2020. The former MEP was a doctor and gynaecology professor before becoming a politician.

As Belgium’s first transgender MP, she earned a reputation for combining a passion for LGBTQ+ rights with a sense of humour.

“I entered politics in 2014 and I was already under attack,” she once said. “I have the skin of an elephant – I am not afraid of attacks. I expect it. The trolls will continue, but I will ignore them. Fortunately, they are a minority.”

UK

Angela Rayner to open Labour conference with pledge to ‘make work pay’


Labour Party conference – a look at what to expect as members gather in Liverpool


Sophie Wingate, PA Political Correspondent
Fri, 6 October 2023 

Angela Rayner will set out Labour’s plan to make workers better off as she opens the party’s conference in Liverpool on Sunday.

Labour MPs, delegates and lobbyists will descend on the city for five days of policy debate, rallies and networking.

Party leader Sir Keir Starmer will head to the annual gathering boosted by a comfortable lead in the polls and a resounding by-election victory over the SNP in Scotland’s Rutherglen and Hamilton West seat.

His deputy Ms Rayner, who is also shadow levelling up secretary, will use her main speech to pledge “a decent job, a secure home and a strong community” for all under a Labour government.

She accused Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of “taking a sledgehammer” to these.

Ahead of the conference, which carries the slogan “Let’s get Britain’s future back”, she said: “With five prime ministers in seven years and constant chaos and instability, Britain’s future has been left to take a back seat. The Tories’ legacy is national decline – a nation levelled down and starved of hope.

“While the Tories have stolen Britain’s future, it’s Labour that will give it back with our plan to make working people better off by securing growth for all people and in all places.”

Ms Rayner will flesh out Labour’s planned new deal for workers, which she said aims to “boost wages, make work more secure and support working people to thrive”.

“It’s how Labour will make work pay,” she said.

Labour’s by-election victory in Rutherglen and Hamilton West provided Sir Keir Starmer with a boost ahead of the conference (Jane Barlow/PA)

She recently gave unions a “cast-iron commitment” to push through an Employment Rights Bill within 100 days of being in office if the party enters Downing Street.

The Opposition’s plan for secure homes to “end the Tories’ housing emergency” will also feature in Ms Rayner’s speech, as well as a pledge to oversee the “biggest ever transfer of power out of Westminster” to help the places “abandoned” by the Conservatives.

In an interview with the Guardian, she promised the party would focus on getting tough on developers and reforming planning rules to deliver “the biggest boost to affordable housing for a generation”.

Under its plans, Labour would set up a new expert unit to give councils and housing associations advice to get the best deal during negotiations with property firms, the paper reported.

This would be aimed at preventing developers from “wriggling out” of their affordable housing obligations, known as section 106 rules, Ms Rayner said.

It would publish guidance that would effectively restrict them to challenging 106 rules only if there were genuine barriers to building homes, according to the paper.

Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves will take to the main stage on Monday to detail how Labour would revive the sluggish economy, before Sir Keir’s keynote address on Tuesday.

Business chiefs are flocking to the Labour conference, with the party saying tickets to its business forum sold out in record time and noting an unprecedented interest in sponsorship.

The Labour Party women’s conference will take place in Liverpool on Saturday, the day before the main events get under way.

Rishi Sunak used his Tory conference speech to cancel the northern leg of HS2 (Danny Lawson/PA)

The gathering follows the Conservatives’ conference in Manchester, which was overshadowed by the fate of HS2.

Mr Sunak defied senior Tories and business leaders to scrap the rail line from Birmingham to Manchester, saying “the facts have changed” and the cost of the high-speed rail scheme had “more than doubled”.

Sir Keir has said Labour cannot commit to reversing the decision if it wins the next general election due to the “damage” done by the Government.

The Tories urged the Labour leader to clarify his position on HS2, as well as his support for a raft of transport schemes announced by Mr Sunak in place of the cancelled leg.

Conservative Party chairman Greg Hands said: “We all know Keir Starmer won’t tell us his plans if he becomes prime minister because he’s afraid of losing votes, and he changes his position to whatever he thinks people want to hear.

“Our country faces an important choice: Rishi Sunak, who will make the hard but necessary long-term decisions to get the country on the right path for the future, or Sir Keir Starmer, who is just like the same old politicians that have come before – always focused on the short-term and lacking the backbone to make the big changes Britain needs.”

Labour’s win in the Rutherglen by-election this week provided a huge boost to Sir Keir ahead of the conference, with analysts inferring its possible return to being the largest party north of the border and a clearer path to a Labour majority at Westminster if the same swing is replicated at the next national poll.

Labour Party chairwoman Anneliese Dodds said: “In what is likely to be the final conference season before the general election, it has never been more clear that Labour has the plans to unlock growth, make our streets safe, secure the future of the NHS, break down barriers to opportunity and make the UK a green energy superpower.”

In its first policy announcement ahead of the Liverpool gathering, Labour pledged to create an extra 700,000 urgent dentist appointments and introduce supervised toothbrushing in schools across England under plans to improve the nation’s oral health.

UK
'Are You Not Mortified?': Dermot O'Leary Roasts Sunak Over Braverman's Immigration Comments

Alicia Fitzgerald
Fri, 6 October 2023 

Dermot O'Leary / Rishi Sunak

Dermot O'Leary grilled Rishi Sunak on ITV's This Morning

Rishi Sunak was asked on live TV if he was “mortified” by Suella Braverman’s controversial comments about immigration.

The home secretary said the west was facing a “hurricane” of migrants in the years to come during her speech to the Tory conference.

Appearing on ITV’s this morning, the prime minister was asked by presenter Dermot O’Leary for his thoughts on Braverman’s rhetoric.

In particular, he expressed concern about her use of the word “hurricane”.

“Are you not embarrassed and ashamed when you hear words like that? Because I’m meeting you for the first time and you seem like a decent guy” O’Leary asked.

The prime minister responded: “I think that this debate gets charged a lot where people focus on one thing. So, if you just take a step back, what do I think we all agree on? We all agree that Britain is incredibly welcoming place. We haven’t failed in any way.”

O’Leary said: “Are you not mortified? That’s evil. It’s not a good word.“

Sunak replied: “They are being exploited by criminal gangs. And that’s why I’ve said it’s got to be ... the British people who decide who comes to our country and not criminal gangs. They are exploiting vulnerable people.”

O’Leary did not let Sunak off the hook, adding, “It’s this weaponising of the word that worries me. It’s demonising the people that come here in the first place.

“It’s an issue, of course it is. It’s the incendiary use of that word, that I think most people find unhelpful and harmful because it’s not the people who are coming here’s fault.”

Failing to answer the question, Sunak replied, “I think your viewers probably feel that there is an enormous sense of frustration that there are tens of thousands of people who have come here illegally over the past few years, and that’s not right.

“And I think most people in their local community may now have a hotel that’s been put over to house illegal migrants that’s costing taxpayers.”

Rishi Sunak on This Morning

Meanwhile, the PM also sent well-wishes to This Morning presenter Holly Willoughby after a man was charged over an alleged plot to kidnap the presenter.

On Friday morning, it was reported that the daytime star was “under police guard at her home” after “sinister” messages were found on a man’s phone reportedly threatening to “seriously harm” the daytime TV presenter.

Sunak said he was “so sorry to hear about everything that is going on with Holly”.

“I wanted to send my best to her and her family and to all of you,” the PM added.

NAZI PUR BLUT

Fury as Donald Trump says immigrants ‘poison blood’ of US

David Millward
Fri, 6 October 2023 

Donald Trump said migrants coming into the US are ‘from mental institutions’ - Angela Weiss/AFP

Donald Trump has triggered outrage by accusing undocumented immigrants of “poisoning the blood of our country” in a recent interview.

Mr Trump made his remarks in a 37-minute interview with Raheem Kassam, the editor-in-chief of The National Pulse and a former director of Breitbart News in London.

“Nobody has any idea where these people are coming from, and we know they come from prisons,” said the former president. “We know they come from mental institutions, insane asylums. We know they’re terrorists.

“Nobody has ever seen anything like we’re witnessing right now. It is a very sad thing for our country. It’s poisoning the blood of our country. It’s so bad, and people are coming in with disease. People are coming in with every possible thing that you could have.”

The former president’s remarks echo far-Right and white supremacist rhetoric about the threat posed to America by immigrants.

The Great Replacement Theory, a popular far-Right trope, claims that white Americans are being replaced by non-white newcomers in the country’s demographic make-up.

Mr Trump’s comments also echo those he made early in the 2016 election campaign when he launched an attack on Mexican immigrants, saying: “They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.”

Mehdi Hasan, a MSNBC talk show host, described the former president’s remarks as “a straight-up white supremacist neo-Nazi talking point”.

Jonathan Greenblatt, the chief executive of the Anti-Defamation League said racist rhetoric had inspired deadly attacks in Pittsburgh and El Paso.

But Mr Trump’s remarks were defended by Steven Cheung, a campaign spokesman, who told The Telegraph: “That’s a normal phrase that is used in everyday life – in books, television, movies, and in news articles. For anyone to think that is racist or xenophobic is living in an alternate reality consumed with nonsensical outrage.”

Immigration is certain to be a key issue in the presidential election, with a surge in migrants has left the Joe Biden administration vulnerable.

DUCK AND COVER

Russia will revoke ratification of nuclear test ban treaty, envoy says


Julian Borger in Washington and agencies

THE GUARDIAN
Fri, 6 October 2023 

Photograph: Getty Images

Russia’s envoy to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) has said that Moscow will revoke its ratification of the pact, a move that Washington denounced as endangering “the global norm” against nuclear test blasts.

Friday’s announcement by Mikhail Ulyanov added new fuel to tensions between Russia and the US over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and arms control disputes between the world’s largest nuclear powers.

Ulyanov, Moscow’s envoy to the CTBTO, said on X, formerly known as Twitter: “#Russia plans to revoke ratification (which took place in the year 2000) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.

“The aim is to be on equal footing with the #US who signed the Treaty, but didn’t ratify it. Revocation doesn’t mean the intention to resume nuclear tests.”

Related: The Ukraine war is in a new phase. Biden must rethink the US position | Stephen Wertheim

While the US signed but did not ratify the treaty, it has observed a moratorium on nuclear weapon test explosions since 1992 which it says it has no plans to abandon.

“We are disturbed by the comments of ambassador Ulyanov in Vienna today,” a US State Department spokesperson said in a statement. “A move like this by any state party needlessly endangers the global norm against nuclear explosive testing.”

Robert Floyd, the executive secretary of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), said it would be “concerning and deeply unfortunate if any state signatory were to reconsider its ratification of the CTBT.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin had suggested that Russia could revoke its ratification of the 1996 CTBT agreement to “mirror” the US a day earlier.

Speaking in Sochi on Thursday, Putin made several references to nuclear weapons. He said he was “not ready to say now whether we really need or don’t need to conduct tests”.

“As a rule, experts say, with a new weapon - you need to make sure that the special warhead will work without failures,” Putin said.

Any Russian nuclear test would be the first since 1990, the last conducted by the Soviet Union. Renewed testing by a nuclear superpower would undo one of the principal advances in non-proliferation since the cold war.

Since the all-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin and other Russian officials have frequently drawn attention to the country’s nuclear arsenal, the biggest in the world, in an attempt to deter other countries from helping Ukraine resist the invasion.

Vyacheslav Volodin, the chairman of the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, said after Putin’s remarks that it would swiftly consider whether revocation of Russia’s ratification of the CTBT was necessary.

Last week, Mikhail Kovalchuk, a close associate of Putin and head of the Kurchatov Institute research centre, said Russia could carry out a nuclear test “at least once” at Novaya Zemlya, an Arctic archipelago where the Soviet Union carried out testing.

Satellite images of Novaya Zemlya, published last month by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, showed recent construction activity at the old test site.

The institute also found signs of activities at the old US testing ground in the Nevada desert, and the Chinese site in Xinjiang province, suggesting the CTBT is increasingly fragile as international tensions rise, and the nuclear powers expand or modernise their arsenals.

National security officials in Donald Trump’s administration discussed in May 2020 a possible resumption of US tests for the first time since 1992.

In his remarks in Sochi, Putin claimed Russia had successfully tested an experimental nuclear-powered cruise missile, the Burevestnik, and was close to producing a new type of nuclear-capable ballistic missile.

“A Russian nuclear test in the near future would be the latest in a stream of nuclear signals related to the war in Ukraine, which often come when Russia is facing battlefield losses,” said Heather Williams, the director of a project on nuclear issues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“Nonetheless, these threats should be taken seriously. If Russia withdrew ratification from the CTBT or did test a nuclear weapon, this would be a major strategic and diplomatic provocation.

“It would undermine one of the few remaining agreements managing nuclear risk, since Russia suspended participation in the 2010 New Start treaty earlier this year.”

The CTBT was opened for signature in 1996 and since then it has been signed by 187 countries, and ratified by 178. For the test ban to enter into force, however, it requires ratification by 44 states who participated in negotiating the agreement and who had nuclear power or research reactors at the time.

Of that 44, eight countries have yet to ratify the ban: China, North Korea, Egypt, India, Iran, Israel, Pakistan and the US.

Reuters contributed to this report

EU FAR RIGHT OPPOSES NATO TOO

This is why Sweden might not join NATO after all

Dr Gladden Pappin, President, HIIA
Fri, 6 October 2023 

This is why Sweden might not join NATO after all

Fifteen months after Sweden was invited to join NATO, its accession to the joint defence alliance is at a clear inflexion point.

Until this summer, Sweden’s accession looked like a fait accompli, pending what everyone assumed would be an eventual, pro forma approval by Hungary and Turkey.

But as Ukraine’s defensive efforts have run aground and attention has turned elsewhere even in the most hawkish corners of the Western alliance, the Swedish candidacy is firmly on the rocks.

It is worth asking why.

'Rapid shedding of historical neutrality'

In the weeks after the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, fundamental assumptions about the structure of the Western alliance were thrown out the window.

Age-old policies of neutrality suddenly looked “immoral,” and pressure was duly brought on Sweden and Finland to step away from the sidelines and join NATO.

During the spring of 2022, Swedes themselves expressed concern at the rapid shedding of their historical neutrality. Yet international frustration is currently directed at Turkey and Hungary for not yet ratifying Sweden’s accession.

Joining NATO is not like joining the Schengen Zone; it is a commitment to shed blood for one another in the event of any invasion.

The Alliance against NATO network take part in a demonstration in support of democratic forces in Turkey and against Swedish NATO membership, in Stockholm, June 2023 - Maja Suslin/AP

Hungary and Turkey aren’t stalling arbitrarily. The core problem with Sweden’s accession is that treating it as an inevitable expansion has undermined trust within the alliance.

Resolving potential points of dispute prior to expansion is essential for a defensive alliance.

Ukraine, Sweden and strategy: What will be discussed at the Vilnius NATO summit?


Swedish government to increase defence spending amid NATO bid

Unlike a mere security alliance where military norms and methods are harmonised, a mutual defensive alliance demands a far higher level of commitment.

Joining NATO is not like joining the Schengen Zone; it is a commitment to shed blood for one another in the event of any invasion.
Risks that need to be resolved beforehand

In the days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO’s senior members and international influencers decided to push hard for its expansion — on an expedited basis, sidestepping typical NATO procedures.

But when diplomats describe Hungary’s hesitations about ratifying Sweden as an “annoying sideshow,” they stir bad blood which does not contribute to the strengthening of a defensive alliance.

While Hungary and Turkey have agreed to NATO’s expansion at a political and diplomatic level, the decision ultimately rests with the parliaments of both countries.

Allowing a new member to join NATO while it undergoes internal turmoil, or is in political tension with an existing member, brings with it obvious risks that should be resolved beforehand.

A security guard walks in front of a banner outside the venue of the NATO summit in Vilnius, July 2023 - AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis

There are other reasons that Sweden’s accession has stalled, as well. In recent months, Sweden has been undergoing a series of violent public incidents surrounding the burning of the Quran that have angered Turkey and prompted disappointment from the Hungarian foreign ministry as well.

Just recently, Sweden’s police chief Anders Thornberg noted that the country has experienced an “unprecedented” wave of violence.

NATO’s founding documents imply that internal stability and security, as well as mutual compatibility, are preconditions for accession and that internal strife shouldn’t be imported into NATO.

According to Article 4, parties to the treaty “will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.”

Allowing a new member to join NATO while it undergoes internal turmoil, or is in political tension with an existing member, brings with it obvious risks that should be resolved beforehand.
Engaging in careful diplomatic cultivation

Some level of cultural compatibility is also assumed by accession. Article 2 of the North Atlantic Treaty insists that “the further development of peaceful and friendly international relations” among the parties result from the treaty. Both Hungary and Turkey have complaints on these grounds.

In April, Sweden joined the European Commission’s case against Hungary at the European Court of Justice — part of the EU-level actions that are holding up billions of euros of funds to which Hungary is otherwise entitled.

Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrives for the 2nd day of the Europe Summit in Granada, October 2023 - AP Photo/Fermin Rodriguez

As a diplomatic strategy for paving the way to accession, decisions like these are strange, to say the least.

Second, state educational programming in Sweden has characterised Hungary as a backsliding democracy — drawing outrage from Hungarian parliamentarians.

Sweden PM asks military to help tackle violent gangs


Sweden raises its terror threat to four out of five after Quran burnings

While some have sought to pooh-pooh the anti-Hungarian educational material, noting that it was several years old, these issues are precisely the type that should be sorted out prior to accession.

Instead of engaging in careful diplomatic cultivation of Hungary, Sweden has assumed that Budapest will follow Ankara and hence does not require much direct attention. Such an approach is hardly good preparation for a defensive alliance.
Periodic Quran burnings need to be resolved in satisfactory manner

Similarly, an important part of Turkey’s international image is as a guardian of Islamic culture and civilisation.

The periodic burnings of the Quran that occur in Sweden are not only offensive to Turkey but also indicate the presence of a difficult internal situation.

Although Hungary comes from a different cultural background, it enjoys good relations with Turkey and is able to understand the perspective that has caused Ankara to take a cautious approach toward the Swedish accession.

Sweden’s accession is on hold precisely because Turkey and Hungary understand the nature of the alliance and want to proceed only when the diplomatic, strategic and political elements have been fully resolved.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan shakes hands with Sweden's PM Ulf Kristersson as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg looks on in Vilnius, July 2023 - AP Photo/Yves Herman

Currently, it is an open question whether these matters can be resolved in a manner satisfactory to Turkey as well as to the parliamentary representatives of Hungary’s voters.

From a security standpoint, the urgency of the early days of the war has also faded. With Russia bogged down in Ukraine, it is not going to be launching incursions into NATO territory anytime soon, and claims about Russia’s imperial ambitions seem hardly credible.

Sweden struggles to handle the fallout from repeated Quran-burning protests


Sweden 'at risk' thanks to Russian-backed Quran burning disinformation

Arguments for NATO’s expansion now have to be made in a more specific and strategic, not broad-brush manner.

Sweden’s accession is on hold precisely because Turkey and Hungary understand the nature of the alliance and want to proceed only when the diplomatic, strategic and political elements have been fully resolved.

Urgency to join NATO subsided

The larger reason, then, is that Sweden’s accession to NATO no longer looks like an urgent military imperative for key NATO members.

Sweden’s military contribution to NATO would be rather slender, and the scenarios for mutual defence are likelier to involve committing American troops to protect Sweden than vice versa.

With NATO’s most hawkish members hesitant about their own arms transfers, while the alliance itself remains formally uninvolved, it is natural that overall sentiment toward expansion might also cool or slow.

Poland's PM Mateusz Morawiecki and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attend a press conference in Warsaw, April 2023 - AP Photo/Michal Dyjuk

Given that cultural differences among NATO members — and within countries — have already been increasing, it is important to ask whether each expansion strengthens overall defensive resilience or stretches mutual goodwill beyond the breaking point, by creating mutual obligations that eventually generate animosity.

In recent days, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has explained that Poland will not be transferring new arms acquisitions to Ukraine.

Poland says it will stop sending weapons to Ukraine

Poland said its army will soon be the strongest in Europe. But is that possible?

Likewise, President Andrzej Duda has warned that Poland will not be pulled down along with Ukraine, as the latter continues to suffer.

With NATO’s most hawkish members hesitant about their own arms transfers, while the alliance itself remains formally uninvolved, it is natural that overall sentiment toward expansion might also cool or slow.
NATO membership is a serious committment

Ultimately, it is crucial to understand what the commitment to NATO membership means both for an incoming member and for existing members of NATO.

Decisions about expanding collective defence obligations can only be made clearly when that is evaluated frankly and democratically by each existing member.

With the rush of spring 2022 now a fading memory, the opportunity for cooler heads to ask questions has now arisen.

Sweden may yet join NATO, or the difficulties that have arisen may block its path for the foreseeable future.

Either way, the overall interests of the alliance are served only when each member — including the new one — is fully prepared for the mutual obligations such a step entails.

Dr Gladden Pappin is President of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs (HIIA). Since 2021, he has been living in Hungary and has been a senior guest lecturer at Mathias Corvinus Collegium.

EU veteran Tusk heads into final week of battle to steer Poland from populism


Shaun Walker in Bydgoszcz
Fri, 6 October 2023 

Photograph: Darek Delmanowicz/EPA

“I want this message to reach everybody in Poland,” said Donald Tusk, speaking to a rally of supporters, gathered in a cavernous indoor sports arena in the city of Bydgoszcz. “This is really the last chance.”

As a vicious, bruising campaign comes to its climax ahead of parliamentary elections on 15 October, Tusk, a veteran of Polish and European politics, has sought to make this point with increasing urgency.

Related: Polish elections: who are the key players and what is at stake?

The rally was just one stop on a busy campaign trail for Tusk, whose Civic Coalition is seeking to prevent the nationalist, populist Law and Justice (PiS) government from winning a third term.

Crowds of local supporters queued to see Tusk in Bydgoszcz, and at least 2,000 packed the hall to hear him speak, waving Polish flags and applauding regularly. Tusk told them that the parliamentary vote would be a referendum – on Poland’s future as a state with democratic norms as well as on its place inside the EU.

“It will be crucial for Poland’s future, for the future of our children and grandchildren,” he said, to cheers from the loyal audience.

Tusk is perhaps Poland’s best-known politician internationally. He was prime minister between 2007 and 2014, when he left to become European Council president. A year later, his party suffered a surprise defeat in elections, with PiS coming to power.

Now, Tusk is back. He has run a slick campaign, designed to counter the stereotype that his is the party of the metropolitan elite. In Bydgoszcz, he referred to himself several times as a “normal person”, and frequently talked about his grandchildren. A campaign video shows him cheerfully boarding his campaign bus with a stack of takeaway pizza boxes to deliver to his aides. He is not a great orator, but appears very comfortable on stage and brings the gravitas of experience: he’s done the job before, after all.

His key foe in this battle is the other major figure of recent Polish politics, the PiS chair, Jarosław Kaczyński, who controls his party tightly in a largely behind-the-scenes role. PiS has used its eight years in power to try to reshape Poland, eroding democratic institutions, curtailing women’s rights and demonising migrants and minorities. It has clashed with Brussels over the rule of law, leading to tens of millions of euros of EU funds for Poland being blocked.

At the same time, the PiS government has introduced various policies that have increased welfare and social spending, winning them support among many who felt the years after the transition from communism were unfair.

Kaczyński is now fighting for another four years to continue implementing his vision for the transformation of Poland. His government has launched ferocious attacks on Tusk and his party, drawing from the populist playbook to claim the opposition represents foreign forces that want to subjugate Poland.

A large part of the PiS campaign has focused specifically on Tusk, with Kaczyński calling him “the personification of evil” earlier in the summer. Tusk is regularly accused of being a German or Russian agent on public television, which is staunchly pro-PiS.

Kaczyński at a campaign rally in Busko-Zdrój. Photograph: Piotr Polak/EPA

Tusk has tried to portray himself as a patriot, coming up with a red-and-white heart as a campaign symbol and describing a huge march of supporters in Warsaw last weekend as the “march of a million hearts”.

“Tusk’s ambition is for the de-Pisification of Poland … but he is also fighting for his own legacy, for those years before 2015. He’s been smeared day and night for eight years,” said Jarosław Kuisz, the author of an upcoming book on recent Polish politics.

It has been the nastiest campaign most Poles can remember, and both sides have sought to portray a victory for the other as an apocalyptic scenario.

“I really think these elections are of historical importance,” said Adam Bodnar, a law professor who spent several years as Poland’s human rights ombudsman during PiS rule and who is now standing for election to the upper house of parliament as a Civil Coalition candidate in Warsaw.

“These elections won’t be fair, but there is still at least a chance to fight them and win … This is the last chance to stop the construction of a semi-authoritarian system.”

Most independent polls suggest the race is too close to call. A poll this week by the Kantar agency put PiS on 34% and Civic Coalition on 30%, meaning the ability to form the next government is likely to rest on the results of several smaller parties. One outcome is a hung parliament with no workable coalition possible, and the prospect of another election in the near future.

The Kantar poll suggested that Civic Coalition, together with the leftwing Lewica and the centre-right Third Way, could put together a narrow parliamentary majority, but the margins are slim and the system used to translate votes into mandates is complicated, meaning there is still much uncertainty.

“I don’t remember a campaign where so much is unclear and the polls differ by such margins,” said Jacek Karnowski, the editor-in-chief of Sieci, a strongly pro-PiS weekly magazine. He said he was confident of a PiS victory.

The entire outcome could hinge on a few tenths of a per cent one way or the other for a smaller electoral grouping, such as Third Way, which has polled at about 8-10% over recent months. Third Way will make it into parliament only if it passes the threshold of 8%; if it falls below that, all its votes will be transferred to other parties, with a disproportionate amount going to the biggest party, likely to be PiS.

A poster showing Jarosław Kaczyński behind bars during an opposition march in Warsaw. Photograph: Rafal Oleksiewicz/AP

Lewica, Poland’s main leftwing force, is one of the other smaller parties to watch, along with Confederation, a grouping of libertarians and far-right nationalists that is far more extreme than PiS and opposes Poland’s backing for Ukraine. Both have won support among younger voters, although Confederation has fallen sharply in the polls since the summer and is now polling at about 8%.

Part of the attraction of these parties for younger Poles is that they seem more in tune with the concerns of the younger generation than the two main parties, led by ageing men – Tusk is 66 and Kaczyński is 74.

“Gen Z people are either frustrated and angry, or disengaged. They will tell you they’ve got nothing in common with either Kaczyński or Tusk,” said Weronika Sarnowska, a 31-year-old Lewica candidate in Warsaw. For most of those who do vote, “it’s a protest vote, an anti-duopoly vote”, she said.

Nevertheless, Lewica and Third Way are very clear that PiS is the greater threat. “We are not symmetrists, we don’t say both of them are evil, because the only evil one is PiS,” said Michał Kobosko, who is top of the Third Way party list for Warsaw.

If the opposition does well enough to install Tusk as prime minister, there will still be a difficult period of government ahead, as PiS has politicised many state institutions, and the PiS-allied president, Andrzej Duda, will have nearly two years of his term left with the ability to veto legislation.

There is also the possibility that the election will yield no clear result and lead to months of coalition wrangling and perhaps new elections. But if there is a path to a workable governing coalition for either PiS or Civil Coalition, the election may be the end for one of the two men who have dominated Polish politics for the past two decades.

“For Kaczyński, if PiS lose it would be very difficult to rebuild this system again later, and if Tusk is the clear loser it will be the end for him … This is their final battle,” said Karnowski.

Additional reporting by Katarzyna Piasecka

Six people accused of assassinating Ecuador presidential candidate are killed in prison

ISN'T THAT CONVIENIENT

Our Foreign Staff
Fri, 6 October 2023

Fernando Villavicencio was shot dead at a campaign event in Quito on August 9 - REUTERS

Six people accused of assassinating an anti-corruption presidential candidate in Ecuador were killed in prison on Friday.

The suspects who were implicated in the attack in August on Fernando Villavicencio were killed at a jail in the Guayas province, Ecuador’s prisons agency, SNAI, said.

Ecuador’s government condemned the killings which come barely a week before a crucial run-off election.

President Guillermo Lasso pledged “neither complicity nor cover-up” in getting to the bottom of the crime, in a post on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.

“Here the truth will be known,” he said.

Mr Lasso announced he was calling off a visit to Seoul and returning from a trip to New York to handle the incident. 

A woman wounded in the attack on Fernando Villavicencio - GETTY IMAGES

The killings took place in Litoral Penitentiary in Guayaquil, the South American country’s largest city.

SNAI said in a statement the six men were all Colombian nationals. It gave no more details of the killings.

The government has said authorities are determined to identify those behind Mr Villavicencio’s murder.

Mr Lasso previously suggested Mr Villavicencio was the victim of a gang assassination.

Mr Villavicencio, a prominent journalist, was gunned down less than two weeks before a first-round general election.

Police arrested the six Colombians on the day of the assassination. A seventh suspect, also Colombian, was shot and killed by police, while other suspects were later arrested.

The US agreed to send FBI agents to assist Quito officials with the investigation.

Business heir Daniel Noboa, who holds a narrow lead in some polls ahead of the run-off, said in a social media post that the government must provide details of what occurred at the prison and that peace must be restored in the country.

His main rival for the presidency is Luisa Gonzalez, a protege of leftist former President Rafael Correa. She has said that surging crime is unprecedented and that voters should not allow “terror” to stop them from voting for change.

Italian court blocks deportation of migrant to Tunisia, saying it’s not a safe country

Giulia Carbonaro
Fri, 6 October 2023 


A court in Italy’s Florence ruled to block the deportation of a migrant to Tunisia after declaring that the country cannot be considered “safe”, delivering a significant blow to Giorgia Meloni’s government.

Cooperation with Tunisia in dealing with the surging numbers of migrant arrivals to Italy’s coasts has become crucial to the right-wing coalition government led by Meloni.

After talks spearheaded in part by Meloni, the European Union struck a deal with the Tunisian government earlier this year which will see the block giving the North African country €100 million to combat undocumented immigration.

At the same time, Meloni - who’s been cultivating Italy’s relationship with the Kais Saied government - has been pushing to have Tunisia considered a safe third country where migrants arriving from the country’s shores can eventually be relocated back there.

Tunisia’s President Saied, who has been hostile against migrants living in the country, has likely agreed to the deal because the country is currently facing rampant inflation and a major debt crisis.

Several human rights activists condemned the deal, raising doubts about whether Tunisia can really be considered a safe country to relocate migrants. In the wake of the EU-Tunisia deal, Amnesty International wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter that the agreement was “ill-judged” in relation to the “mounting evidence of serious human rights abuses by authorities” in Tunisia which would make the EU “complicit”.

On Wednesday, a court in Florence agreed with human rights activists, saying that Tunisia cannot be considered a safe country where democracy and human rights are respected.

It’s the first time that a migrant deportation to Tunisia is blocked in Italy, and the second time that a court defies the government’s recent attempts to deal with migration by relying on third countries like Tunisia to handle the issue.

In March, a court in Catania, Sicily, rejected the legitimacy of the government’s new rule stating that migrants arriving to Italy from “safe” countries can immediately be deported back without the possibility of asking for asylum. The judge ruled that the new decree was against both the Italian Constitution and EU law.

Now the Florence judge ruled that because of the ongoing socio-economic, water, and food crisis in Tunisia and the country’s “authoritarian descent”, Tunisia can no longer be considered safe.

Meloni isn’t happy about the latest ruling in Florence, and the government has already said it plans to appeal the decision.

She isn’t happy in general about what her government has managed to do in terms of tackling migration in the country. Meloni, who once suggested setting a naval blockade in the Mediterranean to stop migrant arrivals, has passed many tough new rules to stop migration - to little or no avail, as the number of migrants arriving to Italy’s shores this year has exceeded 130,000.

Last week, the Italian Prime Minister admitted she had hoped to “do better” on migration.

Oregon seeks $27M for dam repair it says resulted in mass death of Pacific lamprey fish



PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) — Oregon officials are seeking more than $27 million in damages over dam repairs they say killed more than half a million Pacific lamprey fish in what they've described as one of the largest damages claims for illegal killing of wildlife in state history.

In a claim filed in Douglas County Circuit Court on Friday, the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife said that recent repairs to Winchester Dam in the southern part of the state resulted in the death of at least 550,000 juvenile Pacific lamprey, an eel-like fish key to local ecosystems and of cultural significance to many Native American tribes in the region. The fish is also listed as a protected species in Oregon.

“The North Umpqua River’s diverse fish populations are unique within Oregon and are of considerable social, cultural, and economic importance locally and regionally,” the fish and wildlife department said in a news release. “The damages claim seeks reparation for the loss of a valuable public resource.”

The complaint was filed against the Winchester Water Control District along with TerraFirma and DOWL, companies that were contracted, respectively, for dam repairs and fish salvage operations.

The department has accused the defendants, among other things, of unlawful killing of fish and negligence.

Neither DOWL nor Ryan Beckley, president of the water control district and owner of TerraFirma, immediately responded to emailed requests for comment.

Built in 1890 on the North Umpqua River, Winchester Dam is a former hydropower plant that is now privately owned by the water district's residents, who largely use it for water sports and recreation, according to the complaint.

Environmental groups have long criticized the dam, describing it as an old, disintegrating structure that kills or prevents fish including lamprey and salmon from swimming upstream.

Jim McCarthy, Southern Oregon Program Director of WaterWatch of Oregon, said he hoped the damages claim would mark a turning point for lamprey conservation.

“This is wonderful news for Pacific lamprey which, for too long, have been disregarded and treated as disposable, leading to dramatic declines,” he said. “This is a win for Native American tribes which have worked so hard to raise awareness about the importance and value of these fish, and to restore them.”

The complaint stems from repairs that the Winchester Water Control District requested last year.

To carry out the repairs, the district received authorization from the fish and wildlife department to temporarily drain part of the reservoir behind the dam and close the fish ladder. This, on the condition that it take steps to salvage and relocate fish and make a “sufficient effort" to ensure that no more than 30,000 juvenile lampreys were killed in the process.

When the water drawdown started on August 7, however, those salvaging efforts were not completed, stranding and exposing thousands of lamprey in the sediment, according to the complaint. Two days later, the fish and wildlife department determined that an emergency salvage operation was necessary and recruited employees from across the western side of the state to assist. At least 550,000 lamprey died as a result, the complaint said.

The incident was raised during recent legislative hearings at the state Capitol in Salem. State Sen. Jeff Golden, the chair of the chamber's natural resources committee, has requested that the departments of Fish and Wildlife, Water Resources and Environmental Quality submit a report to lawmakers in the coming months.

___ Claire Rush is a corps member for the Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues.

Claire Rush, The Associated Press