Thursday, October 19, 2023

SPACE NEWS TOO

NASA's Webb discovers new feature in Jupiter’s atmosphere


Narrow jet stream near Jupiter's equator has winds traveling 320 miles per hour

Peer-Reviewed Publication

NASA/GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER

image of Jupiter from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope’s NIRCam 

IMAGE: 

THIS IMAGE OF JUPITER FROM NASA’S JAMES WEBB SPACE TELESCOPE’S NIRCAM (NEAR-INFRARED CAMERA) SHOWS STUNNING DETAILS OF THE MAJESTIC PLANET IN INFRARED LIGHT. IN THIS IMAGE, BRIGHTNESS INDICATES HIGH ALTITUDE. THE NUMEROUS BRIGHT WHITE ‘SPOTS’ AND ‘STREAKS’ ARE LIKELY VERY HIGH-ALTITUDE CLOUD TOPS OF CONDENSED CONVECTIVE STORMS. AURORAS, APPEARING IN RED IN THIS IMAGE, EXTEND TO HIGHER ALTITUDES ABOVE BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN POLES OF THE PLANET. BY CONTRAST, DARK RIBBONS NORTH OF THE EQUATORIAL REGION HAVE LITTLE CLOUD COVER.

 

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CREDIT: IMAGE: NASA, ESA, CSA, STSCI, R. HUESO (UNIVERSITY OF THE BASQUE COUNTRY), I. DE PATER (UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY), T. FOUCHET (OBSERVATORY OF PARIS), L. FLETCHER (UNIVERSITY OF LEICESTER), M. WONG (UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY), J. DEPASQUALE (STSCI)





NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope has discovered a new, never-before-seen feature in Jupiter’s atmosphere. The high-speed jet stream, which spans more than 3,000 miles (4,800 kilometers) wide, sits over Jupiter’s equator above the main cloud decks. The discovery of this jet is giving insights into how the layers of Jupiter’s famously turbulent atmosphere interact with each other, and how Webb is uniquely capable of tracking those features.

“This is something that totally surprised us,” said Ricardo Hueso of the University of the Basque Country in Bilbao, Spain, lead author on the paper describing the findings. “What we have always seen as blurred hazes in Jupiter’s atmosphere now appear as crisp features that we can track along with the planet’s fast rotation.”

The research team analyzed data from Webb’s NIRCam (Near-Infrared Camera) captured in July 2022. The Early Release Science program – jointly led by Imke de Pater from the University of California, Berkeley and Thierry Fouchet from the Observatory of Paris – was designed to take images of Jupiter 10 hours apart, or one Jupiter day, in four different filters, each uniquely able to detect changes in small features at different altitudes of Jupiter’s atmosphere.

“Even though various ground-based telescopes, spacecraft like NASA’s Juno and Cassini, and NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope have observed the Jovian system’s changing weather patterns, Webb has already provided new findings on Jupiter’s rings, satellites, and its atmosphere,” de Pater noted.

While Jupiter is different from Earth in many ways – Jupiter is a gas giant, Earth is a rocky, temperate world – both planets have layered atmospheres. Infrared, visible, radio, and ultraviolet light wavelengths observed by these other missions detect the lower, deeper layers of the planet’s atmosphere – where gigantic storms and ammonia ice clouds reside.

On the other hand, Webb’s look farther into the near-infrared than before is sensitive to the higher-altitude layers of the atmosphere, around 15-30 miles (25-50 kilometers) above Jupiter’s cloud tops. In near-infrared imaging, high-altitude hazes typically appear blurry, with enhanced brightness over the equatorial region. With Webb, finer details are resolved within the bright hazy band.

The newly discovered jet stream travels at about 320 miles per hour (515 kilometers per hour), twice the sustained winds of a Category 5 hurricane here on Earth. It is located around 25 miles (40 kilometers) above the clouds, in Jupiter’s lower stratosphere.

By comparing the winds observed by Webb at high altitudes, to the winds observed at deeper layers from Hubble, the team could measure how fast the winds change with altitude and generate wind shears.

While Webb’s exquisite resolution and wavelength coverage allowed for the detection of small cloud features used to track the jet, the complementary observations from Hubble taken one day after the Webb observations were also crucial to determine the base state of Jupiter’s equatorial atmosphere and observe the development of convective storms in Jupiter’s equator not connected to the jet.  

“We knew the different wavelengths of Webb and Hubble would reveal the three-dimensional structure of storm clouds, but we were also able to use the timing of the data to see how rapidly storms develop,” added team member Michael Wong of the University of California, Berkeley, who led the associated Hubble observations.

The researchers are looking forward to additional observations of Jupiter with Webb to determine if the jet’s speed and altitude change over time.

“Jupiter has a complicated but repeatable pattern of winds and temperatures in its equatorial stratosphere, high above the winds in the clouds and hazes measured at these wavelengths,” explained team member Leigh Fletcher of the University of Leicester in the United Kingdom. “If the strength of this new jet is connected to this oscillating stratospheric pattern, we might expect the jet to vary considerably over the next 2 to 4 years – it’ll be really exciting to test this theory in the years to come.”

“It’s amazing to me that, after years of tracking Jupiter’s clouds and winds from numerous observatories, we still have more to learn about Jupiter, and features like this jet can remain hidden from view until these new NIRCam images were taken in 2022,” continued Fletcher.

The researchers’ results were recently published in Nature Astronomy.

The James Webb Space Telescope is the world’s premier space science observatory. Webb is solving mysteries in our solar system, looking beyond to distant worlds around other stars, and probing the mysterious structures and origins of our universe and our place in it. Webb is an international program led by NASA with its partners, ESA (European Space Agency) and the Canadian Space Agency.

This image of Jupiter from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope’s NIRCam (Near-Infrared Camera) shows stunning details of the majestic planet in infrared light. In this image, brightness indicates high altitude. The numerous bright white ‘spots’ and ‘streaks’ are likely very high-altitude cloud tops of condensed convective storms. Auroras, appearing in red in this image, extend to higher altitudes above both the northern and southern poles of the planet. By contrast, dark ribbons north of the equatorial region have little cloud cover. In Webb’s images of Jupiter from July 2022, researchers recently discovered a narrow jet stream traveling 320 miles per hour (515 kilometers per hour) sitting over Jupiter’s equator above the main cloud decks.

CAPTION

Researchers using NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope’s NIRCam (Near-Infrared Camera) have discovered a high-speed jet stream sitting over Jupiter’s equator, above the main cloud decks. At a wavelength of 2.12 microns, which observes between altitudes of about 12-21 miles (20-35 kilometers) above Jupiter’s cloud tops, researchers spotted several wind shears, or areas where wind speeds change with height or with distance, which enabled them to track the jet. This image highlights several of the features around Jupiter’s equatorial zone that, between one rotation of the planet (10 hours), are very clearly disturbed by the motion of the jet stream.

 

CREDIT

Image : NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI, Image: NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI, R. Hueso (University of the Basque Country), I. de Pater (University of California, Berkeley), T. Fouchet (Observatory of Paris), L. Fletcher (University of Leicester), M. Wong (University of California, Berkeley), A. James (STScI)


These photos of Stoke Space's 'Hopper' reusuable rocket test are just amazing

Samantha Mathewson

These photos of Stoke Space's 'Hopper' reusuable rocket test are just amazing


Stoke Space shared stunning new photos from a recent flight test of the company's Hopper reusable rocket prototype.

The flight test, called Hopper2, included a vertical takeoff and vertical landing demonstration, during which the reusable second-stage rocket successfully lifted about 30 feet (9 meters) off the ground and then safely touched down in its targeted landing zone after 15 seconds of flight.

The recent photos that Stoke Space shared on X (formerly Twitter) show the spacecraft on the launch pad at the company's test site in Moses Lake, Washington, along with the bright blaze ignited by the rocket's hydrogen/oxygen engine during liftoff.


Related: Stoke Space gets closer to 100% reusable rocket with successful 'Hopper' test flight (video)

The test, performed on Sept. 17, was meant to demonstrate several of Hopper's systems and design elements, including its novel hydrogen/oxygen engine, coolant-based heat shield and a propulsion system that maneuvers the rocket by throttling its different engines.

While the spacecraft didn't directly experience the heat from hypersonic reentry to Earth's atmosphere during its test flight, it has successfully operated at 100% of the expected heat load in a simulated environment, bringing the company one step closer towards developing fully reusable rockets.



"This test was the last test in our Hopper technology demonstration program. We successfully completed all of the planned objectives," the company said in a statement announcing the successful test launch. "We've also proven that our novel approach to robust and rapidly reusable space vehicles is technically sound, and we've obtained an incredible amount of data that will enable us to confidently evolve the vehicle design from a technology demonstrator to a reliable reusable space vehicle."

Following the successful test of the second stage rocket, Stoke Space will now shift its focus to developing a reusable first stage in order to reach the company's goal of building a 100% reusable rocket with a turnaround time of just 24 hours.


Mysterious signals from 'hell planet' 40 light-years from Earth could finally be solved by James Webb Space Telescope

Paul Sutter
Thu, October 19, 2023 

This illustration shows one possible scenario for the hot, rocky exoplanet called 55 Cancri e, which is nearly two times as wide as Earth. New data from NASA Spitzer Space Telescope show that the planet has extreme temperature swings.

The first super-Earth astronomers ever discovered has given off strange signals for nearly two decades, and scientists may have finally figured out why.

Volcanoes on this hellish world periodically open up and spew hot gas that forms an atmosphere, only for that atmosphere to burn off and leave the planet bald again, a new study suggests. Testing that theory will involve training the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) on the strange exoplanet.

The planet, 55 Cancri e, is a rocky world about eight times as massive as our planet and was discovered in 2004 around 40 light-years from Earth.

Related: 32 jaw-dropping images from the James Webb Space Telescope

The planet is so close to its parent star, at less than 2% of the distance between Earth and the sun, that it makes a complete orbit in just 17 hours. This sets up some rather extreme conditions on the planet that have defied explanation.

Perhaps the most puzzling aspect of the planet, as pointed out in a paper accepted in September to the Astrophysical Journal Letters, is the nature of its transit signal. This is the light visible from Earth when 55 Cancri e crosses across the face of its parent star, making a tiny eclipse, and the light visible when the planet passes behind its star.

Sometimes, when 55 Cancri e passes behind its star, no visible light comes from the planet itself, while other times the planet emits a strong visible light signal. In infrared light, there's always a signal, though that signal varies in strength.

Observations of that infrared light with the Spitzer Space Telescope indicated that the day side of the planet experienced exceptionally scorching temperatures of well over 4,400 degrees Fahrenheit (2,427 degrees Celsius), while the night side had cooler, but still hellish, temperatures of around 2,060 F (1127 C).

In the new study, the authors hypothesize that the planet's proximity to its star is causing it to outgas, meaning that giant volcanoes and thermal vents open up, spewing hot carbon-rich elements into the atmosphere. But the planet can't hold on to that atmosphere for long due to the extreme heat, and this gas eventually gets blown away, leaving the planet bare until the outgassing begins again.

Unlike most planets, the atmosphere of 55 Cancri e is unstable. The outgassing process tries to bulk up the atmosphere, while the extreme radiation and solar wind from the star blow it away. But these two processes are not in balance, leading to the situation where sometimes the planet has an atmosphere, and other times it doesn't.

The researchers believe this imbalance in the planetary atmosphere can explain the strange transit signals. When the planet is in its atmosphere-less "bald" phase, no visible light comes from the planet's atmosphere, because there isn't one, but the planet's hot surface still emits infrared light. When the atmosphere puffs up, both the visible light and all the radiation coming from the surface show up in the transit signal.

While this is just a hypothesis, JWST offers a way to test it. By measuring the pressure and temperature of the planet's atmosphere, scientists could determine whether an atmosphere is always present.




Fact Check: NASA Predicted Future Collision of ‘Large Asteroid’ With Earth?


Madison Dapcevich
Wed, October 18, 2023 

NASA/Goddard/University of Arizona


Claim:

A NASA study predicted the future probability that a large asteroid named "Bennu" could collide with Earth.

Rating:


Context:

A 2021 NASA study did indeed determine the probability of Bennu, a large asteroid heavily studied that year, coming into contact with Earth by the year 2300. The report said the likelihood was “very low,” adding that chances equate to 1 in 1,750, or .057%



Claims that NASA predicted a “large asteroid could smash into Earth in 159 years” popped up in corners of the internet in September 2023 after findings originally published in 2021 resurfaced. The study in question, which is genuine and credible, determined the likelihood that "Bennu," a large and intensively explored asteroid, would collide with the planet.

But headlines published by several media outlets overly dramatized the study to suggest that such a collision may be more likely than anticipated, including one seen in a post on X below:


(Screengrab/X)

The study cited in news coverage, like that above, was initially published in 2021. In it, researchers described, among other topics, the extremely low probability of asteroid Bennu colliding with Earth.

While it’s technically true that Bennu could “smash into Earth in the next 159 years,” as some media outlets reported in 2023, such likelihood was determined to be “very low,” wrote NASA, adding that the chances of collision equate to 1 in 1,750, or .057%. (The researchers also identified Sept. 24, 2182, as the "most significant single date in terms of a potential impact, with an impact probability of 1 in 2,700, or about 0.037%.")

Although such headlines were somewhat fear-mongering and missing important context, we’ve nonetheless rated this claim as “True.”

First discovered in 1999, Bennu is a near-Earth asteroid that passes near the planet every six years, deemed an important target of study during NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission to collect information about its size, shape, mass, and composition.

A study published in the peer-reviewed journal Icarus on Nov. 15, 2021, titled, “Ephemeris and hazard assessment for near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu based on OSIRIS-REx data,” set out to determine the likelihood that Bennu could come into contact with Earth.

Along with information about its spin and orbital trajectory, all together, this information helped inform the study researchers about the potential for future collision with Earth. According to a news release issued by NASA on Aug. 11, 2021:

In 2135, asteroid Bennu will make a close approach with Earth. Although the near-Earth object will not pose a danger to our planet at that time, scientists must understand Bennu’s exact trajectory during that encounter in order to predict how Earth’s gravity will alter the asteroid’s path around the Sun – and affect the hazard of Earth impact.

Although the chances of it hitting Earth are very low, Bennu remains one of the two most hazardous known asteroids in our solar system, along with another asteroid called 1950 DA.

Bennu is expected to make its closest approach to Earth in 2135, at which point it may pass through a “gravitational keyhole,” which is an area in space where the asteroid may be impacted by Earth’s gravitational pull, sending it on a path toward impact.

“The orbital data from this mission helped us better appreciate Bennu’s impact chances over the next couple of centuries and our overall understanding of potentially hazardous asteroids – an incredible result,” said Dante Lauretta, OSIRIS-REx principal investigator and professor at the University of Arizona, in a news release at the time.

As there is an expected 0.057% impact probability through the year 2300, the researchers concluded that the study highlights the crucial importance of characterizing Bennu’s orbit.
Sources:

Archive, View Author, and Get author RSS feed. NASA Predicts Large Asteroid Could Smash into Earth in 159 Years. 20 Sept. 2023, https://nypost.com/2023/09/19/nasa-predicts-large-asteroid-could-smash-into-earth-in-159-years/.

Bennu - NASA Science. https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/asteroids/101955-bennu/. Accessed 12 Oct. 2023.

Dante Lauretta | Lunar and Planetary Laboratory & Department of Planetary Sciences | The University of Arizona. https://www.lpl.arizona.edu/faculty/dante-lauretta. Accessed 12 Oct. 2023.

Dapcevich, Madison. “Snopes Tips: Why Care If Research Is ‘Peer-Reviewed’?” Snopes, 30 Mar. 2022, https://www.snopes.com/news/2022/03/30/snopes-tips-why-care-if-research-is-peer-reviewed/.

Farnocchia, Davide, et al. “Ephemeris and Hazard Assessment for Near-Earth Asteroid (101955) Bennu Based on OSIRIS-REx Data.” Icarus, vol. 369, Nov. 2021, p. 114594. ScienceDirect, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2021.114594.

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov. “NASA Spacecraft Provides Insight into Asteroid Bennu’s Future Orbit.” NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasa-spacecraft-provides-insight-into-asteroid-bennus-future-orbit. Accessed 12 Oct. 2023.

NASA Predicts a Large Asteroid Could Hit Earth in the next Century. 20 Sept. 2023, https://www.audacy.com/wccoradio/news/national/nasa-predicts-a-large-asteroid-could-hit-earth-next-century.

“NASA Predicts Large Asteroid Impact Could Be in Earth’s Future.” KRON4, 19 Sept. 2023, https://www.kron4.com/news/national/nasa-predicts-large-asteroid-impact-could-be-in-earths-future/.

OSIRIS-REx Sheds Light on Hazardous Asteroid Bennu. www.youtube.com, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cb9IL8AqrGA. Accessed 12 Oct. 2023.
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NASA releases new image of Earth taken from space during annular solar eclipse: See the stunning shot

Brittany Kasko
Thu, October 19, 2023 

The eclipse was captured from space — it shows North America completely covered in darkness.


A new image from NASA shows a recent moment when millions of Americans stopped to check out the sun — using proper precautions to protect their eyes, of course.

An annular solar eclipse occurred on Oct. 14 and Americans across the country were in the direct line of crossing.

NASA released an image of the Earth just as the moon was passing in front of the sun.

This moment, also known as an annular solar eclipse, was captured when the moon’s shadow crossed North America.

The image was acquired by NASA’s EPIC imager, which is aboard the Deep Space Climate Observatory — a joint NASA, NOAA and U.S. Air Force satellite, as NASA reported.

The picture was taken at a point between the sun and the Earth, about 1.5 million kilometers from Earth, according to NASA.

BLACK HOLES EXPLAINED: WHY THEY'RE SOME OF THE STRANGEST OBJECTS IN SPACE

The image captured the moon at or near its furthest distance from Earth — with NASA noting that it makes the moon look smaller in the sky than it really is.

The map shows the dark path of annularity that occurred on Oct. 14, 2023, according to NASA.

The annular eclipse is sometimes referred to as the "ring of fire," as it can create a "sliver of sun in the shape of a ring" for those who are in the right place at the right time, as National Geographic editor and space expert Allie Yang told Fox News Digital ahead of the occurrence.

The significance with this particular annular eclipse was that the path crossed the U.S. — something that hasn’t happened since 2012, according to Yang.

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NASA reported that the October 2023 eclipse began around 9:13 Pacific Daylight Time in Oregon before moving southeast.

Annular solar eclipses (one seen here in 2010 in Qingdao, China) are special because the moon appears smaller than the sun when they overlap, creating a "ring of fire" at the right time and place.

The eclipse itself was visible in the U.S. — specifically in the states of Oregon, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, Texas, parts of California, Idaho, Colorado and Arizona.

The full eclipse shadow from the moon took place at 11:58 a.m. Central Daylight Time on Oct. 14, 2023, and was visible by those using specific eyewear.

The next scheduled occurrence in the U.S. is on June 21, 2039 — but a total solar eclipse will "darken skies" from Texas to Maine on April 8, 2024, as NASA noted.

Fox News Digital's Angelica Stabile contributed to this report.

NASA's Juno Reveals Hellish Landscape of Jupiter's Moon Io in Latest Flyby

Passant Rabie
Thu, October 19, 2023 

Jupiter’s Moon Io in the latest picture taken by the Juno spacecraft.

After years of capturing the massive world of Jupiter, the Juno spacecraft has recently turned its attention to its Jovian moons. During a close flyby of Jupiter’s spookiest moon, Juno imaged the charred surface of a volcanic world caught in a haunting gravitational tug.


This week, NASA shared new images taken by the Juno spacecraft during its flyby of Jupiter’s moon Io on October 15. The images reveal an ominous view of the most volcanically active world in the solar system, which has clearly been through a lot over the past 4.5 billion years.

This is perhaps the clearest view we’ve seen of Io as the Juno spacecraft inches its way closer to the moon. The surface of the moon is mangled by hundreds of volcanoes and lakes of molten silicate lava, which is why the moon appears burnt as though it had been through enormous torment.



The moon is wedged between Jupiter’s immense gravitational force, as well as the gravitational tug of its sister moons Europa and Ganymede. As a result, the moon is constantly being stretched and squeezed, which contributes to its volcanic activity.

NASA’s Juno spacecraft, which has been studying the Jovian system since 2016, observed Io during previous flybys in May and July. Juno also captured a cozy family photo of Jupiter and Io in September, revealing the gas giant and its moon side by side. The next time Juno approaches the volcanic world will be on December 30, as well as February 1, 2024, and then again on September 20, 2024, approaching the haunting world with caution to gather more data on its activity.

As the innermost of Jupiter’s large moons, Io is the main source of most of the charged particles in the planet’s magnetosphere, creating a donut-shaped cloud of ions and electrons that surround Jupiter. The cloud, known as Io Plasma Torus, is formed when atmospheric gases escaping from Io are ionized.

During upcoming flybys, scientists from the Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) will use the Hubble and James Webb telescopes to simultaneously observe the Jovian moon from a distance.

For more spaceflight in your life, follow us on X (formerly Twitter) and bookmark Gizmodo’s dedicated Spaceflight page.

 Gizmodo
Go or no go: How truly EV ready is the metropolitan U.S.?

By Dr. Tim Sandle
October 19, 2023

The industry-wide shift towards electric vehicles was the front and centre at the auto show in Munich — © GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP/File Ethan Miller

With new electric vehicles entering the market at a faster rate, questions about mass adoption preparedness are ongoing within the U.S.. This leads to the question, of concern to consumers and to businesses, as to which cities are boosting electric transportation uptake, and which lag behind?

An examination of over 100 of the largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. has ranked each for electric-vehicle friendliness, using criteria like number of EVs, public chargers, electricity cost (expressed as an eGallon), infrastructure challenges, clean energy, EV insurance costs, local incentives and more.

The analysis shows that most cities that provide optimal conditions for EV uptake are located on the West Coast. Western hubs have most amplified efforts toward expanding and improving the infrastructure and market conditions so as to support EV uptake on a larger scale. In fact, California claims almost half of the spots in the top 20. Miami, FL, is the only southern metro area to reach the top 10. This is a sign of a divided nation; one where challenges are unevenly distributed.

Most and least EVs on the roads

The locale with the most EVs on its roads was found to be Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA, with 290,000 registered cars. In contrast, the metro area with the lowest car number is Jackson, MS, with only 480 EVs. The biggest increase in buying EVs (almost 3 times more in 2021 than 2020) was registered in two Oklahoma metros: Tulsa and Oklahoma City.

Charging stations

The number of EVs on the road does not necessarily equate with accessibility to charging stations. In terms of the most EV public charging stations San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA, has the most EV public charging station reported per 1,000 people (2.2). The fewest charging stations among the metros analysed are in McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX (0.04/1,000 people).

Accessibility

Depending on where people live, even a high number of charging stations does not necessarily indicate these are accessible to all citizens. The highest number of multifamily buildings upgraded with EV infrastructure are found in San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA, (10.3 percent of the total number of rentals have this type of amenity). New Haven-Milford, CT, has seen the biggest increase in installing EV chargers for multifamily buildings (160.6 percent), but still only 2.3 percent of multifamily buildings provide this type of amenity here. This shows wide variances in terms of distribution.

Incentivisation

The state providing the most incentive and help in terms of EV adoption is California, more than double the initiatives publicized in the runner-up states, New York and Colorado. At the other end of the spectrum, Arkansas and West Virginia are lagging in the incentives department.

Insurance

The final measure of interest is motor vehicle insurance. The cheapest monthly payment for EV insurance is in North Carolina ($105/month), meanwhile the most expensive premium is paid in Florida ($313/month).

These types of data patterns are helpful for going beyond the headline figures for there are different measures of EV access distribution that need to be considered.


Transition trouble: German car suppliers struggle with electric shift


By AFP
October 18, 2023

Suppliers to the German auto industry are struggling amid the electric transition - Copyright AFP I-Hwa CHENG
Sam Reeves

After years earning bumper profits by producing parts for fossil fuel-powered cars, German suppliers to the crucial auto industry are struggling as the transition to electric mobility gathers pace.

While Germany is well known as the home of titans like Volkswagen, Mercedes and BMW, there are also hundreds of other companies in the country that form part of the sprawling auto sector.

They range from huge firms like ZF and Continental, to far smaller companies, making everything from spark plugs to heaters and exhaust pipes.

But as the industry speeds towards an electric future — the EU is planning to ban the sale of new combustion engine cars by 2035 — specialised suppliers in Europe’s top economy are struggling to keep up, experts warn.

German suppliers have lost nearly three percentage points of global market share since 2019, according to a study by consultancy Strategy&, part of the PwC network.

“The success of the past 20 years is at risk of being eroded in a short span of time,” it warned.

“In particular, Asian suppliers have made substantial gains by investing heavily, and aligning themselves clearly towards future growth in emerging technologies.”

Still, analysts say some of the larger players are navigating the transition better while smaller firms are most at risk.

– High energy prices, interest rates –

One company that has traditionally relied on fossil fuel-powered vehicles is Eberspaecher, whose products include exhaust systems and heaters.

But the firm, which supplies major car brands, has for some time been seeking to pivot to manufacturing more items for electric cars.

At a factory in Herxheim, southwest Germany, workers at a series of high-tech production lines manufacture heaters for hybrid and electric vehicles.

As well as heating the vehicle, they also help to regulate the temperature of the battery.

The family-owned company, founded in 1865, has been producing the devices for some years and over 10 million vehicles have been fitted with them — evidence, it says, of its successful transition to the new auto landscape.

“We see a vast growth potential with e-mobility in the global markets, especially North America, Europe and China,” Karsten Bolz, from the company’s electrical heaters business unit, told AFP.

He sounded relaxed about growing competition, describing it as a “normal part of the automotive business”.

“We have the right tools, we have the knowledge, we have the right technology,” he added.

Nevertheless, Eberspaecher, with over 10,000 employees worldwide, still depended in 2022 for 52 percent its revenues on the combustion engine.

And last year, while net revenues rose to around 2.7 billion euros ($2.9 billion), the company made a net loss of 94 million euros, compared to net profit of 21 million the previous year.

Elsewhere, the situation appears more alarming.

Local media abounds with reports of suppliers making job cuts, or planning to do so, and increasingly looking at shifting production overseas, where costs are cheaper.

Like other German manufacturers, car suppliers are being squeezed by sharply higher energy prices triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and elevated borrowing costs following a recent streak of interest rate hikes.

Of an estimated 400 suppliers in Germany, about 10 percent could face problems, with some potentially going out of business, Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, from the Center Automotive Research, told AFP.

“For small- and medium-size businesses with a heavy focus on combustion engines, it’s very tough,” he said.

– Asia gaining ground –

The Strategy& study shows several Asian companies rising up the global ranking of suppliers in recent years.

In terms of turnover, Chinese EV battery giant CATL was in second spot last year, with Japan’s Denso in third, and South Korea’s Hyundai Mobis in third.

The battle for dominance with Asian rivals reflects the bigger picture in the auto industry — Volkswagen, for instance, is seeing its market share eroded in China by a crop of homegrown electric car makers.

It’s not all doom and gloom, however.

The top supplier globally in terms of turnover remains Germany’s Bosch, whose huge array of products ranges from brakes to batteries, according to the recent study.

And with the transition moving at different paces around the world, industry players see an appetite for traditional combustion engine products for years to come.

At Eberspaecher, which has operations in Europe, Asia, Americas and Africa, revenues from combustion engines “are an important part of the business, and will stay an important part,” said Bolz.

“You still have demand in different parts of the world for clean exhaust technologies.”

Vietnam’s VinFast struggles to sell electric cars at home

AFP
October 17, 2023

Vinfast has enormous brand recognition in Vietnam but has found it tough to convince drivers that its electric vehicles are reliable and high-quality
- Copyright AFP Nhac NGUYEN


Alice Philipson and Tran Thi Minh Ha

Vietnam’s VinFast has grand ambitions of selling its electric vehicles in the United States and Europe to compete with the likes of Elon Musk’s Tesla, but it is struggling to find buyers for its cars at home.

Backed by Vingroup, Vietnam’s biggest conglomerate, Vinfast has enormous brand recognition in the country but has found it tough to convince drivers that its EVs are reliable and high-quality.

Ngo Trong Tu, a 31-year-old businessman from Hanoi, seriously considered buying a $35,000 VinFast EV but instead spent nearly $5,000 more on an imported petrol-powered Honda.

“It’s safer than buying a (VinFast) EV,” Tu told AFP in Hanoi. “On social media, many people said their VinFast EVs had faults.”

“I don’t want to spend my money on an imperfect product.”

Around 280,000 new passenger vehicles were sold in Vietnam in 2022, according to the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers.

VinFast — one of the few EV options in the country — sold only 7,400.

In the first half of 2023, there were 11,000 purchases — but more than half went to a taxi company owned by its parent Vingroup.

The automaker has also been plagued by complaints about faulty construction and car software problems, compounding the challenge of selling EVs in a country where charging infrastructure is underdeveloped.

In January, the presenter of the “Xe Dien EV” YouTube channel — which specialises in EV and battery reviews — said his new VinFast VF8’s battery was faulty and he could not open the car with its smart key.

In another video months later, he reported problems with the car’s virtual assistant, its accelerator and the air conditioner.

And in April, state media reported that a VinFast EV suddenly caught fire in Nghe An province.

VinFast said in a statement that authorities had identified the cause of the fire and it was not because of a problem in their vehicle.

Local authorities did not respond to AFP’s request for comment on the incident.

In an interview with AFP last month, when asked about the complaints, VinFast’s chief executive Le Thi Thu Thuy acknowledged that “there were a lot of doubts”.

It was unrealistic to expect a new product to be perfect, she said, adding: “There’s a lot of hope and expectations for us to be better.”

The company said in a statement that when complaints are reported to their service centre, they are always resolved promptly.

“To date, after several software updates and upgrades, our EVs are performing well,” it added.

– ‘Deep pockets’ –


VinFast’s parent is owned by Vietnam’s richest person, Pham Nhat Vuong, who started out selling dried noodles in the Soviet Union.

He went on to build a $5 billion empire with interests in a range of sectors including real estate, tourism and education.

The tycoon now has set his sights on the burgeoning global EV market — VinFast has opened showrooms in the United States, and outlets in France, Germany and the Netherlands.

VinFast shares have experienced wild fluctuations since debuting on the Nasdaq in August — it soared to a market value bigger than auto titans Ford and General Motors before lurching down.

And despite reporting a net loss of more than $600 million in the third quarter, it continues to expand. Its target markets now include India, Indonesia and the Middle East.

“For now, these losses can be carried because Vingroup has deep pockets, but that can’t go on forever,” said Southeast Asia trade expert James Guild from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

VinFast has said it aims to deliver up to 50,000 cars globally this year. It has sold around 21,000 so far.

With poor demand in Vietnam, and limited sales and bad press in the United States, VinFast may be producing more cars than it can sell, Guild said.

“It needs to have some kind of viable financial and operational plan for the next few years, and right now it’s hard to see what that is.”

Vingroup has pioneered EV infrastructure in Vietnam but one automobile expert in Vietnam, who refused to be named for fear of repercussions from the powerful conglomerate, said that “VinFast has not won our trust”.

“Users cannot buy such an expensive car based on national pride alone,” they said.

Tran Lien Phuong, director of the Ho Chi Minh City consulting and market research company AMCO, said despite the government encouraging people to buy products made in Vietnam, consumers display more faith in foreign brands.

“It will surely be a long and difficult play for Vingroup,” Phuong said.

“Anyone joining this game needs time.”

Myanmar truckers slog on as conflict clogs trade highway

AFP
October 18, 2023

Myanmar's "AH1" highway runs through Karen state, home to a decades-old conflict between ethnic rebels and the military
 - Copyright AFP STR

Standing beside his cargo of Thai fruit and furniture, truck driver Ko Cho steels himself for a journey to Myanmar’s Yangon that will demand bribes, dodging landslides and navigating a raging civil war.

The commercial hub is just 400 kilometres (250 miles) away, but a round trip from Myawaddy on the Thai border can take more than 10 days of slogging through checkpoints and paying backhanders to the military and its allies.

The main route linking Myanmar with its second-biggest trading partner is part of the United Nations-backed Asia Highway project to create a road network from Tokyo to Istanbul.

But this section of “AH1” runs through Karen state, home to a decades-old conflict between ethnic rebels and the military that has escalated since the generals’ coup in 2021.

Air strikes and artillery barrages regularly fall near the road, further choking a major artery of an economy on life support since the putsch.

“When we hear the gunfire is very close, we immediately stop and hide under the truck,” said 43-year-old driver Ko Zaw, a pseudonym.

Ko Cho, also a pseudonym, was waiting at a gas station when AFP spoke to him in September, travelling in a group of five trucks for safety.

“We have to stop and wait on the road when there is a battle,” he said. “It’s happened twice this month.”

Drivers always have ID cards, licences, cash and phones at the ready in case something happens, Aung Htoo, a truck owner who works the road, told AFP.

“Because we can’t turn the truck back, we have to leave and run away.”

– ‘Pay everyone everywhere’ –

Even getting onto the highway is a task.

In the border town of Myawaddy, truck owners pay a fee of 120,000 kyat ($65) just to “quickly” enter the loading zone where their cargoes are inspected, Aung Htoo said.

“It can take one month to enter the zone if we don’t pay,” he said. “All cars pay.”

Myawaddy, a drug and human trafficking hub largely controlled by a junta-allied militia, has been caught up in the military’s raging conflict with its opponents.

In September, anti-junta fighters used drones to drop bombs on a government compound, killing five officials and wounding 11 policemen.

Once a truck is safely out on the road, “checkpoints” run by the military or its militia allies demand fees of roughly 150,000 kyat ($75) per truck per journey to Yangon, Aung Htoo said.

From Myawaddy, the road winds up towards monsoon-soaked hills that periodically shed rocks and earth onto the tarmac, burying parts of the route for days.

Passenger buses crawl up inclines or hiss and lurch around washed-out corners, English-language lettering on their sides announcing “Man of the Year” or “Shopaholic”.

At one corner, an 18-wheeler truck lies tipped over, its crew waiting while a recovery vehicle works.

Every two hours or so there is a checkpoint, Ko Zaw said.

“We have to pay everyone everywhere — on the road, on the bridges, at toll gates, at the trade zones.”

If they try to negotiate the price, he said, the drivers are told “go back if you don’t have money”.

– ‘Worried for our lives’ –


Descending from the hills the road enters the town of Kawkareik — last year the target of a major assault by Karen National Union ethnic rebels that was only beaten back when the junta called in multiple air strikes.

Pickup trucks carrying heavily-armed troops swerve between the lumbering lorries while camouflaged fighters patrol on foot, barely visible against the jungle.

Hours later, across the plains at Nyaung Kar Shay, dozens of trucks line up for inspection at one of the last major checkpoints before Yangon.

A wait of at least half a day is normal there, Ko Cho said — unless a further bribe of around 100,000 kyat ($50) is paid.

In Yangon, the goods are unloaded at warehouses before the drivers turn their trucks back towards Myawaddy.

All for a wage of around $100 plus food expenses per trip.

“The truck owners worry about drivers, the spare man, the truck and also about the goods we are carrying,” Ko Zaw said.

“We drivers are also worried for our lives.”

\
Qatar signs 27-year gas deal with Britain’s Shell

By AFP
October 18, 2023

Since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February last year, European countries have scrambled to replace lost deliveries of natural gas from Russia 
- Copyright AFP I-Hwa CHENG

Qatar has agreed to supply British firm Shell with natural gas for 27 years, the Gulf emirate’s state-owned energy company announced on Wednesday.

Since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine last year, European countries have scrambled to replace lost deliveries of natural gas from Russia.

Qatar will supply 3.5 million tonnes of gas a year under the deal, QatarEnergy said, following two agreements with Shell for a share of the Gulf state’s huge North Field gas expansion project.

“We are delighted to sign these two long-term LNG sale and purchase agreements with Shell that will further enhance our decades-long relationship and strategic partnership in Qatar and around the world,” Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said.

“These agreements reaffirm Qatar’s commitment to help meeting Europe’s energy demands and bolstering its energy security with a source known for its superior economic and environmental qualities,” he added,

In October last year, Shell inked a deal with QatarEnergy for a 9.4 percent stake in Qatar’s North Field South project, the second phase in the expansion of the world’s largest gas field, which extends under the Gulf into Iranian territory.

In July the same year it also agreed to a 6.25 percent share in the first phase of the expansion, North Field East.

Deliveries of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Rotterdam are expected to begin in 2026.

The deal with Shell is equal in length to an agreement with France’s TotalEnergies announced earlier this month for a 27-year supply of natural gas.

Under its North Field expansion, Qatar is set to raise its output of liquified natural gas (LNG) by 60 percent or more to 126 million tonnes a year by 2027.

The main market for Qatari gas has traditionally been found in Asia, led by countries like China, Japan and South Korea.

The deal with Shell and Total is also the same in length to those agreed by the China National Petroleum Corporation in June and China’s Sinopec in 2022. All have set a benchmark as the longest in the liquefied gas industry.

US giants ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil have also signed deals to partner in the expansion.

Qatar is one of the world’s top LNG producers, alongside the United States, Australia and Russia.

QatarEnergy estimates the North Field holds about 10 percent of the world’s known natural gas reserves.

Nasvay: The chewing tobacco poisoning Kyrgyzstan


By AFP
October 18, 2023

Kyrgyz farmer Askarbek Duisheyev tends to his drying tobacco - Copyright AFP VYACHESLAV OSELEDKO
Bruno KALOUAZ

Farmer Askarbek Duisheyev pours a small plastic bottle into the palm of his hand and tips some green balls under his tongue.

This is nasvay, a type of toxic chewing tobacco hugely popular in Central Asia that is a key part of the fragile economy of impoverished southern Kyrgyzstan.

“I’ve been growing tobacco to make nasvay for the past two years. What else is there to do? There’s no work in the Batken region,” Duisheyev, 59, told AFP.

“I have to earn money and feed my family,” he said, as he cut tobacco leaves with a sickle in the village of Kara-Bulak, not far from the Tajik border.

Batken province is the poorest in the former Soviet republic, with nearly half the population living below the poverty line of 540 euros ($570) a year.

Surviving often means either leaving to work in Russia or growing tobacco to make nasvay.

The unregulated production of this addictive and cancerogenic product supports a third of the population according to the campaign group “Kyrgyzstan Without Tobacco”.


– Mysterious recipe –

At the start of autumn, barns in Batken are filled with drying tobacco leaves.

Since he does not have enough space of his own, Duisheyev rents storage from a neighbour who has left to work in Russia like millions of Kyrgyz.

“You can’t stay (inside) too long. The smell is overpowering,” he warned.

After being dried, crushed and mixed in with mysterious ingredients — usually lime, oil or even poultry droppings — the tobacco becomes nasvay, which users slip between their gums and lips.

“The secret is simply mixing three or four ingredients,” said nasvay producer Israil Khakimov.

But chewing the altered tobacco can lead to a long list of health problems.

“Consumption of nasvay can lead to gastrointestinal, oral and liver diseases, as well as cancer of the lips, throats and stomach,” said Saipidin Toroyev, a cancer specialist at Batken hospital.

“Nasvay is dangerous because, as it is placed in the mouth, the saliva brings particles down to the stomach and into the blood stream, causing damage to the whole body,” he told AFP, also pointing to its psychotropic and addictive effects.

Cheaper than cigarettes, consumption has shot up in recent years among both men and women, according to the health ministry.

– ‘Had to find another job’ –


Working out the number of users is tough since nasvay is part of the black economy.

And politicians are torn over whether to eradicate a public health hazard or turn a blind eye to an industry that supports a farming region suffering from water shortages and frequent cross-border conflicts with neighbouring Tajikistan.

Alisher Seidakmatov, who is in charge of agricultural development for the Batken region, told AFP that it is “also profitable to grow fruit and vegetables”.

That view is not shared by producers.

“I had to grow tobacco because my salary was insufficient and I would not earn the same growing potatoes,” said Duisheyev.

His salary as a forest ranger was just 10,000 soms (100 euros) per month.

“I had to find another job,” he said.

With his relatively modest production of around half a tonne of nasvay, he was able to earn his annual forest ranger salary with one harvest.

The nasvay ends up being sold in 50-kilo sacks on Saturdays in the regional capital at a busy tobacco market crowded with trucks and vans.

A buyer comes up to Dzhunusali Seidakmatov’s stall, picks up a fistful of tobacco, rubs it and breathes in.

Negotiations begin, but the two fail to strike a deal.

“He wanted me to sell it to him for 445 soms per kilo. I was expecting 450 soms,” said the seller, who wore a traditional Kyrgyz white felt halt.

“It’s not a problem. I’ve already sold more than 80 kilos,” he said.

French-Iranian academic held in Iran since 2019 back in France

By AFP
PublishedOctober 18, 2023

Adelkhah was arrested in Iran in 2019 and charged with endangering national security but was considered a hostage by supporters - Copyright Sciences Po/AFP/File 


Stuart WILLIAMS

French-Iranian academic Fariba Adelkhah has returned to France, her university said Wednesday, after being held for four-and-a-half years in Iran in a case that added to tensions between Paris and Tehran.

Adelkhah was arrested in June 2019 and convicted on national security charges that her supporters have denounced as absurd.

She was released from prison in February but remained unable to leave Iran.

A well-known researcher in Iranian Shiite religion and politics, Adelkhah landed back in Paris on Tuesday, according to her employer Sciences Po University, which had set up a support group to win her release.

“After so many years of being deprived of her freedom, what an emotion to finally welcome home our colleague Fariba, a symbol of our battle for academic freedom,” said university director Mathias Vicherat in a statement.

Adelkhah was one of some two dozen foreign nationals held by Tehran in what activists and Western governments have described as a deliberate strategy of hostage-taking aimed at extracting concessions from the West.

Several of the foreign prisoners have been released in recent months, including five Americans freed in a complex exchange for billions of dollars in Iranian funds that had been frozen in a South Korean account.

In May, Iran freed French prisoners Benjamin Briere and Bernard Phelan, the latter also an Irish national, after their health deteriorated during hunger strikes.

But around a dozen foreigners remain held by Iran including four French citizens: teacher Cecile Kohler and her partner Jacques Paris, Louis Arnaud, described by his family as an innocent traveller, and a man identified only as Olivier.

– Innocent traveller –

In a call with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi at the weekend to discuss the current conflict between Hamas and Israel, French President Emmanuel Macron “reiterated his deep concern” over the detainees and requested their immediate release, his office said in a statement.

Adelkhah said in a statement through her supporters: “I think of my former fellow women prisoners at Evin (prison in Tehran) and my French compatriots, Cecile, Jacques, Louis and Olivier, who have not yet regained their freedom.”

She was arrested in June 2019 along with her French colleague and partner Roland Marchal.

Marchal was released in March 2020 in an apparent prisoner swap after France released Iranian engineer Jallal Rohollahnejad, who faced extradition to the United States over accusations he had violated US sanctions against Iran.

Adelkhah was sentenced in May 2020 to five years in prison for conspiring against national security.

She was allowed home in Tehran from October 2020 with an electronic bracelet but was then returned to jail in January 2022.
V
Tibu, violent ‘no-man’s land’ hosting Colombian peace talks

By AFP
October 18, 2023

Tibu is in Colombia's Catatumbo region, known for being the world's largest area of drug cultivation - Copyright AFP Edinson ESTUPINAN

David SALAZAR

For months, the mayor of Tibu, a Colombian town under the yoke of guerrilla violence, was forced to do his job from more than 115 kilometers (71 miles) away, after receiving death threats.

Nelson Leal says he had no choice but to leave behind a “no-man’s land” under the control of dissidents who distanced themselves from the peace agreement the FARC guerrilla group signed with the government in 2016.

In March, when he had been on the job for 18 months, rebels stopped him on a road and intimidated him in the presence of his wife, his 13-year-old son and a niece. Then they took his car.

That was the incident that finally convinced him he had to leave, Leal told AFP in the city of Cucuta, where he now lives, governing Tibu by telephone

Prior to that experience, another of his sons had guns pointed at him from a motorcycle, as a warning.

But on October 8, Leal finally returned — under heavy guard — to the town of 60,000, which is now playing host to long-awaited talks between Bogota and dissident guerrillas who call themselves the Central General Staff (EMC).

The talks kicked off on Monday after a weeklong delay amid rising tensions and several deaths in clashes between the two sides.

Tibu is in the Catatumbo region, largely abandoned by state security forces and heavily contested by a plethora of armed groups.

It is also the municipality with the most drug cultivation in the world, according to UN data, with an area of over 22,000 hectares (84 square-miles) planted with coca, the base ingredient for cocaine — of which Colombia is the world’s biggest producer.

Apart from the EMC, Leal said, guerrillas from the National Liberation Army (ELN), the Gulf Clan — Colombia’s biggest drug organization — and Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel are also active around Tibu, near the porous border with Venezuela

“Tibu has become a no-man’s land in which the one with the weapons is the one that governs,” he said.

– ‘Exiled or killed’ –

The Attorney General’s office said in September that about a dozen areas in Colombia, including Tibu, were under the control of armed groups that impose their own “rules of conduct.”

Anyone who diverts from these “is exiled or killed,” it said in a report.

Benigno Neira, a 51-year-old farmer, describes life in Tibu as “complex.”

“One has to take heed, obey, in order to live,” he told AFP.

Colombia’s first-ever leftist president, Gustavo Petro, took office in August 2022 with the stated goal of achieving “total peace” in a country ravaged by decades of fighting between the security forces, leftist guerrillas, right-wing paramilitaries and drug gangs.

His government is also in talks with the ELN and other armed groups, though progress has been halting.

Critics say Petro, himself a former urban guerrilla, is being too indulgent with the rebels, having offered reduced sentences in exchange for laying down arms, as their former FARC comrades did.

On the other side of the coin, some locals — many of whom plant coca themselves — pledge support to rebel groups, which are often the only enforcers of law and order, and source of income.

The EMC — which had about 3,500 members at the end of 2022, according to official figures — has steadily increased its presence in territories formerly occupied by the FARC and largely abandoned by government forces.

– ‘Maximum responsibility’ –


According to Kevin Karlen, a local coordinator for the International Committee of the Red Cross, Tibu is one of the parts of the country “most affected by the armed conflict.”

The town’s police station has an air of being under siege.

In May, two officers and a civilian were killed in a car bomb, and since then, officers leave the station only when “absolutely necessary” — and then in armored vehicles, according to one, who asked not to be named.

In Tibu, there are no traffic cops. There’s no court, no prosecutor’s office.

The last head prosecutor based here was murdered in 2021, with an open docket of some 400 criminal cases.

His subordinates all moved to Cucuta out of fear, according to Leal. They return only occasionally to the town “where it is very easy to govern with a rifle,” he added.

Monday’s talks kicked off with EMC negotiator Andrey Avendano, Leal and government delegates posing for the world’s media.

The nitty gritty of the negotiations, which also come with a three-month bilateral ceasefire, have not been divulged.

Petro has urged the EMC’s 3,500-odd members to behave with “maximum responsibility” during the process.


Noboa vs organized crime: Can Ecuador’s new president rise to the challenge?

AFP
October 17, 2023

Fuerzas de seguridad custodian el inicio de una caravana en apoyo al candidato presidencial ecuatoriano Daniel Noboa, del Partido Acción Democrática Nacional, en Guayaquil el 6 de octubre de 2023
- Copyright AFP/File MARCOS PIN

Paola LOPEZ y Santiago PIEDRA SILVA

Ecuador’s president-elect Daniel Noboa, its youngest ever, is bracing for a titanic clash with narco traffickers that have turned the South American country upside down with a spate of horrific violence.

With little political experience, the businessman son of one of Ecuador’s richest men will be confronting gangs with ties to Mexican and Colombian cartels, seeking to restore the peace that reigned just a few years ago.

He has plans to install a separate judicial system for the most serious crimes, militarize the borders with Colombia and Peru — the world’s biggest cocaine producers — and jail the most violent offenders on barges offshore.

On Sunday, Noboa garnered 52 percent of ballots cast by voters with security concerns uppermost on their minds, according to opinion polls.

By Tuesday he had already called for the country’s security council to convene to report on the actions being taken to “restore peace to Ecuadoran families,” he said in a social media post.

In the four years to 2022, formerly peaceful Ecuador’s murder rate quadrupled, with at least 460 inmates massacred in prisons since February 2021 — many beheaded or burned alive — in fighting between enemy gangs.

As Ecuador went from being a mere transit stop to a hub for drug trafficking itself, the bloodbath has spilled into the streets with narco criminals dangling headless corpses from city bridges and detonating car bombs outside police stations in a show of force.

Could Noboa’s plans work?



– Prison mayhem –



Perhaps the first sign of things to come were simultaneous massacres in four prisons in February 2021. Since then, more than 460 inmates have died as the carnage has spread, some of the bloodshed transmitted live on social media.

Images of bodies hacked up with machetes or burnt beyond recognition spoke to the lack of control in the country’s overcrowded prisons, which have become trafficking centers.

Widespread graft among over-extended prison guards has allowed inmates to obtain guns and explosives, even drones.

In this context, Noboa’s proposal to seclude prisoners offshore under the supervision of “highly corruptible” guards, is risky, Renato Rivera, coordinator for the Ecuadoran Organized Crime Observatory, told AFP.

If individual guards are bought by organized crime and left to operate in isolation, “the (proposed) solution could become an additional problem,” he said.

There are also fears for human rights abuses as well as the high cost of building floating prisons.

It is a solution that would “take a lot of time” to execute, said Rivera, for a president elected to just 16 months in office.

Noboa will be finishing the term of outgoing leader Guillermo Lasso, who called snap elections to avoid possible impeachment.



– Security purge –



“A very aggressive, rapid and effective purge of the security forces, obviously infiltrated by organized crime, is indispensable” for Noboa to have any success, said David Chavez, a political analyst at the Central University of Ecuador.

“Without doing this it will be impossible to regain control of the prisons, I think that is a critical issue, the priority,” he told AFP.

Widespread corruption that spreads far beyond prisons to government and the private sector, was another of voters’ major concerns.

Transparency International gave the country a score of 36 out of 100 on its Corruption Perceptions Index for 2022, lower than the 43 average for the Americas.

In 2021 and 2022, concerned by high levels of graft tied to organized crime, the United States barred several senior police officers, judges and judicial employees from travel to its shores.

Strengthening the organs of state to hit back at organized crime and its ever-expanding web of graft was essential to addressing the security problem, said Chavez.

However, “Noboa and his vice president have made it very clear that their project is to continue… dismantling the state, decreasing its size,” he added.



– Intelligence overhaul –



The country’s intelligence services have been severely weakened in recent years.

Viewed as a tool of political espionage under socialist ex-president Rafael Correa — in office for 10 years until 2017 — the intelligence agencies were enfeebled by subsequent rightwing governments.

It is “a totally weakened intelligence system that is not preventing (crime), not generating alerts,” said Rivera.

Experts estimate that Ecuador could close this year with the record of 40 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, up from 33 per 100,000 today.

This is more than Mexico or Colombia, countries with “a much longer history of crime,” said Rivera.

The United States said Tuesday it would fund a program in Ecuador offering rewards for information that helps track down members of organized crime groups.



OLD SCHOOL CRIMINAL CAPITALISM 

Metro sues Loblaw, George Weston for ‘falsely’ implicating it in bread-price fixing scandal

Metro Inc. says Loblaw Cos. Ltd. and its parent company George Weston Ltd. misled federal regulators and “falsely implicated” Metro and other grocers in a national bread price-fixing plot.

In court documents, Metro accused Loblaw and Weston of dragging innocent competitors into the scandal so that it didn’t have to face “severe public backlash” alone.

“Instead of having customers walk away from Loblaw as a result of its betrayal of their trust, customers were left with the misleading impression that they had practically no choice but to buy bread from retailers that were involved in the price-fixing conspiracy,” Metro said in a statement of defence and crossclaim as part of an ongoing class action suit in Ontario Superior Court.

In an email, Loblaw spokesperson Catherine Thomas said Metro’s allegations are “simply ridiculous and utterly untrue, as will be made clear in court.”

Metro wants Loblaw and Weston to pay damages in an amount “to be determined at trial.” The Montreal-based grocer also accused Loblaw and Weston of public mischief for making false statements about Metro to the Competition Bureau, a federal law enforcement agency.

In 2017, Loblaw and Weston — which at the time controlled one of the largest commercial bakeries in Canada — announced they were giving the Competition Bureau information on an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” in exchange for immunity from prosecution.

In its latest statement on the price-fixing conspiracy, the bureau this summer said it continues to “investigate alleged price fixing” by other companies, including Metro, Sobeys’ parent Empire Co. Ltd., Wal-Mart Canada Corp., Giant Tiger Stores Ltd. and Maple Leaf Foods Inc.

Jake Edmiston, Financial Post