Friday, March 08, 2024

SPACE


Interstellar signal linked to aliens was actually just a truck


Date: March 7, 2024
Source:  Johns Hopkins University

Summary:
Sound waves thought to be from a 2014 meteor fireball north of Papua New Guinea were almost certainly vibrations from a truck rumbling along a nearby road, new research shows. The findings raise doubts that materials pulled last year from the ocean are alien materials from that meteor, as was widely reported.

FULL STORY


Sound waves thought to be from a 2014 meteor fireball north of Papua New Guinea were almost certainly vibrations from a truck rumbling along a nearby road, new Johns Hopkins University-led research shows. The findings raise doubts that materials pulled last year from the ocean are alien materials from that meteor, as was widely reported.

"The signal changed directions over time, exactly matching a road that runs past the seismometer," said Benjamin Fernando, a planetary seismologist at Johns Hopkins who led the research.

"It's really difficult to take a signal and confirm it is not from something. But what we can do is show that there are lots of signals like this, and show they have all the characteristics we'd expect from a truck and none of the characteristics we'd expect from a meteor."

The team will present its findings March 12 at the Lunar and Planetary Science Conference in Houston.

After a meteor entered Earth's atmosphere over the Western Pacific in January 2014, the event was linked to ground vibrations recorded at a seismic station in Papua New Guinea's Manus Island.

In 2023, materials at the bottom of the ocean near where the meteor fragments were thought to have fallen were identified as of "extraterrestrial technological" (alien) origin.

But according to Fernando, that supposition relies on misinterpreted data and the meteor actually entered the atmosphere somewhere else.

Fernando's team did not find evidence of seismic waves from the meteor.

"The fireball location was actually very far away from where the oceanographic expedition went to retrieve these meteor fragments," he said.

"Not only did they use the wrong signal, they were looking in the wrong place."

Using data from stations in Australia and Palau designed to detect sound waves from nuclear testing, Fernando's team identified a more likely location for the meteor, more than 100 miles from the area initially investigated.

They concluded the materials recovered from the ocean bottom were tiny, ordinary meteorites -- or particles produced from other meteorites hitting Earth's surface mixed with terrestrial contamination.

"Whatever was found on the sea floor is totally unrelated to this meteor, regardless of whether it was a natural space rock or a piece of alien spacecraft -- even though we strongly suspect that it wasn't aliens," Fernando added.

Fernando's team includes Constantinos Charalambous of Imperial College London; Steve Desch of Arizona State University; Alan Jackson of Towson University; Pierrick Mialle of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization; Eleanor K. Sansom of Curtin University; and Göran Ekström of Columbia University.


Story Source:

Materials provided by Johns Hopkins University. Original written by Roberto Molar Candanosa. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.


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Johns Hopkins University. "Interstellar signal linked to aliens was actually just a truck." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 7 March 2024. <www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/03/240307165128.htm>.


This Galaxy Was Already Dead When the Universe Was Only 700 Million Years Old

“That is not dead which can eternal lie,
And with strange aeons even death may die.”

― Howard Phillips Lovecraft, The Nameless City


False-color JWST image of a small fraction of the GOODS South field, with the galaxy JADES-GS-z7-01-QU highlighted 
Credit: JADES Collaboration

POSTED ON MARCH 7, 2024 
BY CAROLYN COLLINS PETERSEN

When a galaxy runs out of gas and dust, the process of star birth stops. That takes billions of years. But, there’s a galaxy out there that was already dead when the Universe was only 700 billion years old. What happened to it?

That’s what an international team of astronomers wants to know. “The first few hundred million years of the Universe was a very active phase, with lots of gas clouds collapsing to form new stars,” said Tobias Looser from the Kavli Institute for Cosmology at the University of Cambridge. “Galaxies need a rich supply of gas to form new stars, and the early universe was like an all-you-can-eat buffet.”

So, when the galaxy JADES-GS-z7-01-QU showed up in a JWST observation, it didn’t exhibit much evidence of ongoing star formation. (JADES stands for JWST Advanced Deep Extragalactic Survey.) It’s in what astronomers refer to as a “quenched” state and looks like star formation started and quickly stopped. Figuring out why this happened to the young galaxy is an important step in cosmology. Why did it stop creating stars? And, were the factors that affect star formation the same then as they are today?

Composite image of the GOODS-South field where galaxy JADES-GS-z7-01-QU lies. This is part of a deep survey using two 8.2-meter telescopes. JWST later zeroed in on a small portion of this field.
(Credit : ESO/M Hayes)

When a Galaxy Stops Forming Stars

Star-formation quenching is something astronomers don’t expect to happen quickly. “It’s only later in the universe that we start to see galaxies stop forming stars, whether that’s due to a black hole or something else,” said Dr Francesco D’Eugenio, also from the Kavli Institute for Cosmology and a co-author with Looser on a recent paper about JADES-GS-z7-01-QU.

Star birth usually begins as clouds of gas coalesce together. Gas-rich regions, including galaxies, are prime spots for star-birth nurseries. JWST data about JADES-GS-z7-01-QU shows that this baby galaxy experienced a very intense period of star formation shortly after it began forming (after the Epoch of Reionization). For somewhere between 30 to 90 million years, it was ablaze with star formation. Then, suddenly, it stopped.

That’s not surprising—although astronomers aren’t sure why it stopped. Clearly, it ran out of gas. Maybe a supermassive black hole at its heart gobbled up much of the available “star stuff”. The black hole’s rapidly moving winds and jets could also have shoved a great deal of the star-birth material completely out of the galaxy. It’s also possible that the very rapid pace of star formation that JADES-GS-z7-01-QU experienced simply used up the supply. That’s not impossible, according to Looser. “Everything seems to happen faster and more dramatically in the early universe, and that might include galaxies moving from a star-forming phase to dormant or quenched,” he said.

Figuring out the Answer


It’s not clear from the current JWST data what happened to this little galaxy back at the dawn of time. Astronomers are still probing the data. “We’re not sure if any of those scenarios can explain what we’ve now seen with Webb,” said paper co-author Professor Roberto Maiolino. “Until now, to understand the early Universe, we’ve used models based on the modern universe. But now that we can see so much further back in time, and observe that the star formation was quenched so rapidly in this galaxy, models based on the modern universe may need to be revisited.”

The epoch of reionization was when light from the first stars could travel through the early Universe. At this time, galaxies began assembling, as did black holes. The young galaxy JADES-GS-z7-01-QU went through a star burst phase during this time, and then stopped forming stars. Credit: Paul Geil/Simon Mutch/The University of Melbourne

That means more observations using JWST. “We’re looking for other galaxies like this one in the early universe, which will help us place some constraints on how and why galaxies stop forming new stars,” said D’Eugenio. “It could be the case that galaxies in the early universe ‘die’ and then burst back to life – we’ll need more observations to help us figure that out.”

There’s one other possibility that astronomers will want to probe. JADES-GS-z7-01-QU looked dead at the time of its life when JWST observed it. But, it’s possible that the star-birth quenching was only a temporary thing. Maybe it was caused by periodic outflows of star-stuff material to interstellar space (driven by the black hole in the nucleus). Other galaxies have also been observed to be taking a star-birth break, but they’re much more massive than this one.

Perhaps JADES-GS-z7-01-QU started up the star-forming factory later in its history. In that case, it could well have grown much more massive in later epochs of cosmic history. And, this provides an intriguing idea: perhaps other “quenched” galaxies also took a break, then got a massive infusion of gas—perhaps through collisions with other galaxies—to create later generations of stars. Future JWST observations should uncover more of these galaxies and that should allow astronomers to study their quenched phases in more detail.



AI makes a rendezvous in space

AI makes a rendezvous in space
Researchers from the Stanford Center for AEroSpace Autonomy Research (CAESAR) in 
the robotic testbed, which can simulate the movements of autonomous spacecraft. 
Credit: Andrew Brodhead

Space travel is complex, expensive, and risky. Great sums and valuable payloads are on the line every time one spacecraft docks with another. One slip and a billion-dollar mission could be lost. Aerospace engineers believe that autonomous control, like the sort guiding many cars down the road today, could vastly improve mission safety, but the complexity of the mathematics required for error-free certainty is beyond anything on-board computers can currently handle.

In a new paper presented at the IEEE Aerospace Conference in March 2024 and published on the preprint server arXiv, a team of aerospace engineers at Stanford University reported using AI to speed the planning of optimal and safe trajectories between two or more docking spacecraft. They call it ART—the Autonomous Rendezvous Transformer—and they say it is the first step to an era of safer and trustworthy self-guided .

Hail CAESAR

In , the number of possible outcomes is massive. With no room for error, they are essentially open-ended.

"Trajectory optimization is a very old topic. It has been around since the 1960s, but it is difficult when you try to match the performance requirements and rigid safety guarantees necessary for autonomous space travel within the parameters of traditional computational approaches," said Marco Pavone, an associate professor of aeronautics and astronautics and co-director of the new Stanford Center for AEroSpace Autonomy Research (CAESAR).

"In space, for example, you have to deal with constraints that you typically do not have on the Earth, like, for example, pointing at the stars in order to maintain orientation. These translate to mathematical complexity."

"For autonomy to work without fail billions of miles away in space, we have to do it in a way that on-board computers can handle," added Simone D'Amico, an associate professor of aeronautics and astronautics and fellow co-director of CAESAR. "AI is helping us manage the complexity and delivering the accuracy needed to ensure mission safety, in a computationally efficient way."

CAESAR is a collaboration between industry, academia, and government that brings together the expertise of Pavone's Autonomous Systems Lab and D'Amico's Space Rendezvous Lab. The Autonomous Systems Lab develops methodologies for the analysis, design, and control of autonomous systems—cars, aircraft, and of course, spacecraft.

The Space Rendezvous Lab performs fundamental and applied research to enable future distributed space systems whereby two or more spacecraft collaborate autonomously to accomplish objectives otherwise very difficult for a single system, including flying in formation, rendezvous and docking, swarm behaviors, constellations, and many others. The lab is planning a launch workshop for May 2024.

AI makes a rendezvous in space
CAESAR researchers discuss the robotic free-flyer platform, which uses air bearings to 
hover on a granite table and simulate a frictionless zero gravity environment. 
Credit: Andrew Brodhead

A warm start

The Autonomous Rendezvous Transformer is a trajectory optimization framework that leverages the massive benefits of AI without compromising on the safety assurances needed for reliable deployment in space. At its core, ART involves integrating AI-based methods into the traditional pipeline for trajectory optimization, using AI to rapidly generate high-quality trajectory candidates as input for conventional trajectory optimization algorithms.

The researchers refer to the AI suggestions as a "warm start" to the optimization problem and show how this is crucial to obtain substantial computational speed-ups without compromising on safety.

"One of the big challenges in this field is that we have so far needed 'ground in the loop' approaches—you have to communicate things to the ground where supercomputers calculate the trajectories and then we upload commands back to the satellite," explains Tommaso Guffanti, a postdoctoral fellow in D'Amico's lab and first author of the paper introducing the Autonomous Rendezvous Transformer.

"And in this context, our paper is exciting, I think, for including artificial intelligence components in traditional guidance, navigation, and control pipeline to make these rendezvous smoother, faster, more fuel efficient, and safer."

Next frontiers

ART is not the first model to bring AI to the challenge of space flight, but in tests in a terrestrial lab setting, ART outperformed other machine learning-based architectures. Transformer models, like ART, are a subset of high-capacity neural network models that got their start with , like those used by chatbots. The same AI architecture is extremely efficient in parsing, not just words, but many other types of data such as images, audio, and now, trajectories.

"Transformers can be applied to understand the current state of a spacecraft, its controls, and maneuvers that we wish to plan," Daniele Gammelli, a postdoctoral fellow in Pavone's lab, and also a co-author on the ART paper. "These large transformer models are extremely capable at generating high-quality sequences of data."

The next frontier in their research is to further develop ART and then test it in the realistic experimental environment made possible by CAESAR. If ART can pass CAESAR's high bar, the researchers can be confident that it's ready for testing in real-world scenarios in orbit.

"These are state-of-the-art approaches that need refinement," D'Amico says. "Our next step is to inject additional AI and machine learning elements to improve ART's current capability and to unlock new capabilities, but it will be a long journey before we can test the Autonomous Rendezvous Transformer in space itself."

More information: Tommaso Guffanti et al, Transformers for Trajectory Optimization with Application to Spacecraft Rendezvous, arXiv (2023). DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2310.13831



Widespread solar storm struck spacecraft near the sun, Earth and even Mars

News
By Meredith Garofalo 
published about 12 hours ago


In 2021, a solar storm was recorded by multiple different spacecraft and the results tell quite the story.

On April 17, 2021, one of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft captured this view of a coronal mass ejection billowing away from the Sun (which is covered by the black disk at center to better see features around it).
 (Image credit: NASA/STEREO-A/COR2)

Space weather may seem like a tale from a galaxy far, far away — but when solar storms impact us on Earth, we're directly affected. These storms are what give rise to the Northern Lights, for instance. They can even lead to temporary disruptions in our communications systems and power grid. From these solar flares, we can learn so much — and a recent release from NASA shares how, back in 2021, one in particular had a brilliant story to go with it. As space agencies continue to send astronauts into our planet's orbit, and start planning for journeys even beyond, ways of monitoring solar storms and their impacts will become increasingly critical. These storms have the potential to harm humans, satellites and spacecraft; a release from 2023 by the European Space Agency discussed how, for the first time, such energetic particles were simultaneously observed on the surfaces of the Earth, moon and Mars after a solar outburst. This raised important concerns.

"Space radiation can create a real danger to our exploration throughout the Solar System," Colin Wilson, ExoMars TGO project scientist, shared in the ESA's release. "Measurements of high-level radiation events by robotic missions is critical to prepare for long-duration crewed missions."

In an era with a historic number of satellites and other instruments roaming through the great unknown, NASA's heliophysics missions use spacecraft to get a deeper understanding of space phenomena and tell the stories of what happens after solar events when particles are released into space. A recent article from NASA shares a perfect example of the efforts being made to study the impacts from solar storms originating from the light of all lights: The sun. This solar outburst happened on April 17, 2021, and although these storms are not uncommon, with this specific event, the storm was so widespread that six spacecraft at different locations and positions felt the blast.

Related: Powerful solar flare unleashes colossal plasma plume, sparks radio blackouts across South Pacific (video


High-speed protons and electrons, also known as solar energetic particles (SEPs), were observed by spacecraft not only between the sun and Earth, but as far away as between Earth and Mars!



On April 17, 2021, one of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft captured this view of a coronal mass ejection billowing away from the Sun (which is covered by the black disk at center to better see features around it). (Image credit: NASA/STEREO-A/COR2)

According to NASA, this was the first time something like this has happened — we now have a whole different perspective on solar storms using data from multiple spacecraft versus a single one that can only provide a local insight.

Let's use a famous Marvel hero as an example: Thor creates a solar storm to wipe out a bunch of bad guys, generating lots of SEPs to send out into space. He knows, however, that there are enemies on all sides. So, he makes sure to create different balls of these SEPs that can go in all different directions, covering a much wider territory than a single beam can. With more "eyes" on a single event, we can better understand all of the different types of hazards that can come from one solar storm, which can sometimes pose a threat across a larger playing field.

"SEPs can harm our technology, such as satellites, and disrupt GPS," Nina Dresing of the Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Turku in Finland said in a statement. "Also, humans in space or even on airplanes on polar routes can suffer harmful radiation during strong SEP events."

Dresing and her team conducted further research from the event to learn where the SEPs came from, how the particles revved up to dangerous speeds, and when they made contact with each spacecraft. The conclusions were as follows (plotted on the diagram below.) The closest to the blast (which took the blunt of the blow) was the BepiColombo spacecraft, a joint mission of the European Space Agency and JAXA. BepiColombo is en route to Mercury. The second hardest hit by particles was NASA's Parker Solar Probe, which sits extremely close to the sun. That was followed by ESA's Solar Orbiter. Parker and the Solar Orbiter were on opposing sides of the flare when it happened.

A little closer to home, NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft, STEREO-A, the NASA/ESA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and NASA's Wind spacecraft were hit by the event. Finally, the farthest away and final spacecraft to detect particles from the blast were Mars orbiters: NASA’s MAVEN and ESA's Mars Express.




















This diagram shows the positions of individual spacecraft, as well as Earth and Mars, during the solar outburst on April 17, 2021. The Sun is at the center. The black arrow shows the direction of the initial solar flare. Several spacecraft detected solar energetic particles (SEPs) over 210 degrees around the Sun (blue shaded area). (Image credit: Solar-MACH)

By determining their differences in location from around the sun and noting how many electrons and protons were observed by each spacecraft, Dresing and her team were able to paint a much clearer picture of what happened from the solar ejection.

"Multiple sources are likely contributing to this event, explaining its wide distribution," Georgia de Nolfo, a team member and heliophysics research scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, said in the statement. "Also, it appears that, for this event, protons and electrons may come from different sources. This is not the first time that people have conjectured that electrons and protons have had different sources for their acceleration, this measurement was unique in that the multiple perspectives enabled scientists to separate the different processes better, to confirm that electrons and protons may originate from different processes."

As we know, this will not be the last time an event like this occurs, and the more research we can do, the better understanding we can have of what happens with space weather, and the more we can cautiously explore the final frontier. Future studies that stem from these results will cover a wider terrain of other phenomena; they'll be conducted by instruments including the Geospace Dynamics Constellation (GDC)SunRISEPUNCH, and HelioSwarm.

The study was published last year in the journal Astronomy & Astrophysics.


 

CSI in space: Analyzing bloodstain patterns in microgravity


As more people seek to go where no man has gone before, researchers are exploring how forensic science can be adapted to extraterrestrial environments.


Peer-Reviewed Publication

STAFFORDSHIRE UNIVERSITY

Bloodstain pattern experiments were conducted in reduced gravity aboard a parabolic aircraft 

IMAGE: 

BLOODSTAIN PATTERN EXPERIMENTS WERE CONDUCTED IN REDUCED GRAVITY ABOARD A PARABOLIC AIRCRAFT

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CREDIT: ZACK KOWALSKE




As more people seek to go where no man has gone before, researchers are exploring how forensic science can be adapted to extraterrestrial environments.

new study by Staffordshire University and the University of Hull highlights the behaviour of blood in microgravity and the unique challenges of bloodstain pattern analysis aboard spacecraft. 

Bloodstain expert Zack Kowalske is a Crime Scene Investigator based in Atlanta, USA, and led the study as part his PhD research at Staffordshire University.

“Studying bloodstain patterns can provide valuable reconstructive information about a crime or accident. However, little is known about how liquid blood behaves in an altered gravity environment. This is an area of study that, while novel, has implications for forensic investigations in space,” he commented.

“Forensic science is more than just trying to solve crimes; it additionally has a role in accident reconstruction or failure analysis. With this concept, consider how various forensic disciplines could be utilized in a critical accident onboard a space station or shuttle.”

Experiments were conducted aboard a Zero Gravity Corporation modified Boeing 727 parabolic aircraft. A mixture of 40% glycerin and 60% red food colouring was used, simulating the relative density and viscosity of human blood. Blood droplets were propelled from a hydraulic syringe toward a target during periods of reduced gravity between 0.00 and 0.05 g. From these blood stains, the researchers reconstructed the angle of impact.

Co-author Professor Graham Williams, from the University of Hull, explained: “With the lack of gravitational influence, surface tension and cohesion of blood droplets are amplified. What this means is that blood in space has a higher tendency to stick to surfaces until a greater force causes detachment. Within the application of bloodstain formation, it means that blood drops exhibit a slower spread rate and, therefore, have shapes and sizes that would not be reflective on Earth.

“On Earth, gravity and air drag have a noticeable influence on skewing the calculated angle. The initial hypothesis was that because of the absence of gravity, certain mathematical calculations would be more accurate. However, the amplified effect of surface tension became a predominant factor that caused the calculation to have greater variance, even in the absence of gravity.”

This is the first study relating to the behavior of blood in free flight. With the rate of technological evolution in space exploration, the authors say that the need for reliable forensic science techniques will become increasingly important.

Zack added: “We find ourselves in a new era of forensic science; just as mid-19th century research asked the question of what a bloodstain meant in relation to cause; we are once again at the beginning of new questions that tie in how new environments influence forensic science.

“Astroforensics is a novel subdiscipline that is in its infancy. Broadening the understanding of all forensic sciences in non-terrestrial environments is critical as we expand into a space-faring species. Research is needed, research that spans across all disciplines.”

Read the full paper Bloodstain pattern dynamics in microgravity: Observations of a pilot study in the next frontier of forensic science.

Read more about the study on The Conversation – We’re working out how to solve crimes in space – the final frontier of forensic science.

 

Populations of the future: updated tool helps to visualize projections


Reports and Proceedings

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS




New projections of population and human capital provide insights into what our future could look like all the way until the year 2100 under different developmental scenarios. The findings are presented in the datasets compiled by IIASA scientists in partnership with the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital.

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) framework is a crucial toolkit for exploring projections of the future state of socioeconomic development and its relationship with climate change, which is widely embraced by the global scientific community. One part of these projections is the population and human capital component of the SSPs — it’s “human core”. It focuses on building future estimates of what the populations of different countries would look like in terms of size, age, levels of educational attainment, sex ratio, life expectancy, migration trends, and other characteristics.

The first set of population and human capital projections following the SSPs was developed in 2013 (WIC2013) and was last updated in 2018 (WIC2018). In 2021, the SSP community requested another update of the human core of the SSPs, which culminated in the recent launch of an updated version, referred to as WIC2023. This updated version provides data, projection assumptions, and results on the populations of 200 countries and regions by age, sex, and education for alternative scenarios from 2020 to 2100, based on seven different future scenarios.

The updated WIC2023 population projection data is available in a new version of the Wittgenstein Centre Human Capital Data Explorer (WCDE). Although the tool is primarily targeted at scientists and policymakers, its simple interface and ease of use make it a go-to solution for anyone interested in learning more about the future of our society. The tool was developed by researchers in the IIASA Population and Just Societies (POPJUS) Program, in partnership with the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, a collaborative center of the Austrian Academy of Sciences (Vienna Institute of Demography), IIASA, and the University of Vienna. The projections are also available through the Zenodo data repository.

The most important refinements introduced cover the disparities between individuals with varying levels of education with regard to mortality. This data is now country- and region-specific rather than being normalized to a single level by gender. In addition, education-specific migration rates are implemented in the projection model for the first time. Education-specific fertility levels have also been updated with new estimates.

The overview of the updates introduced as part of WIC2023 is documented in a recent working paper by POPJUS researchers. The paper presents a comparison between the methodology used for developing the global population and education projections under the five SSPs in this update and the previous versions. Furthermore, a brief analysis of the primary results regarding population size and composition was conducted, with comparisons made to earlier projections and other organizations, including the United Nations Population Division.

Key findings

Compared to the previous assumptions, WIC2023 highlights that the world population would peak later and at a higher level of total population. In the most likely scenario from today’s perspective, the world population would peak in 2080 at 10.13 billion and slowly decline after that to reach 9.88 billion in 2100. The main reasons for a later peak and a higher population at the end of the century lie in further reductions in mortality and slower anticipated fertility decline in high-fertility countries.

WIC2018 showed peak population being reached in 2070 at 9.7 billion, with the world population at the end of the century at 9.3 billion. WIC2013 again projected lower population growth, peaking at 9.4 billion in 2070 and declining to 8.9 billion by 2100.

On average the population in the projections will be much better educated than today’s, because the younger cohorts are better educated than the older ones virtually everywhere.

By 2050, the majority of the population would have an upper-secondary education or more (64%) according to the SSP2 scenario and 29% a post-secondary education. Africa would still be the least educated world region with 30% of the 25+ population having not completed a primary education (13% at the world level), but diminishing from 48% in 2020 (21% at the world level). 

Reference
K.C., S., Dhakad, M., Potančoková, M. , Adhikari, S., et al. (2024). Updating the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Global Population and Human Capital Projections. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-24-003

 

About IIASA:
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is an international scientific institute that conducts research into the critical issues of global environmental, economic, technological, and social change that we face in the twenty-first century. Our findings provide valuable options to policymakers to shape the future of our changing world. IIASA is independent and funded by prestigious research funding agencies in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Europe. www.iiasa.ac.at

 

A better handle on the emissions budget for the Paris climate targets


Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF EXETER





A team of scientists from the University of Exeter, Met Office and Imperial College have found a new way to calculate the total carbon emissions consistent with the Paris climate targets of 1.5oC and 2oC of global warming.

Although the exceptionally warm climate in 2023 was close to exceeding the 1.5oC level, the Paris targets relate to the average warming over ten or more years.

The new study answers the question: how much carbon have we got left before we pass the Paris limits? 

About 15 years ago, climate scientists discovered a remarkably useful fact about climate change.

Despite the vast complexity of the climate system, global warming depends overwhelmingly on the total carbon dioxide emissions since pre-industrial times. 

This discovery opened up the possibility of defining total carbon budgets consistent with the Paris targets, and led to the definition of Net Zero as the point at which global warming essentially stops.

The problem is, the Earth System Models used to make climate projections disagree hugely about how much global warming we will get for a billion tonnes of carbon emissions.

The new study solves this problem by showing that observed global warming and estimated carbon emissions up to the current day are a really good indicator of how much carbon emissions are left before we pass the Paris climate targets.

The authors do this by what they call an “Emergent Constraint”, which is a fancy name for something quite simple.

Basically, they look at results from all of the available Earth System Models, which form a lovely straight line linking emissions per oC of global warming up to now, with emissions for a given level of future global warming.

This means that best estimates of global warming and emissions up to the current day can be converted simply into estimates of the total carbon budget for the Paris climate targets.

The good news is that the new study estimates emissions budgets that are at least 10% larger than the average value for the models.

The bad news is that if humankind continues to emit carbon at the currently rate, we have a little more than a decade before we exceed the Paris 1.5oC target, even for decade-mean warming.

Co-author Chris Jones, from the Met Office, said: “This emergent constraint is elegant and powerful. It both uses observations to narrow the possible range of future emissions, but also lets us consider other greenhouse gases than just CO2. In this way the remaining carbon budget is made much more policy relevant.”

Lead author Peter Cox, Director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter, said: “Our study clarifies the climate problem that needs to be solved, and we hope that it will stimulate greater efforts to reduce our emissions to Net Zero.”

Peter Cox, Mark Williamson, Pierre Friedlingstein, Chris Jones, Nina Raoult, Joeri Rogelj, Rebecca Varney, 2024. Emergent constraints on carbon budgets as a function of global warming. Nat Comm. 15, 1885. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-46137-7

 

Wind power surge: China's bold leap towards a green future


Peer-Reviewed Publication

CHINESE SOCIETY FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Graphical abstract. 

IMAGE: 

GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT.

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CREDIT: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND ECOTECHNOLOGY




A recent study introduces a novel methodology for evaluating the economic viability and competitive edge of onshore wind energy against traditional power sources. This approach underscores the potential of wind power to reach grid parity, where its cost becomes comparable or lower than conventional electricity sources. The research marks a significant step in understanding the dynamics of renewable energy markets and highlights the role of wind power in China's ambitious environmental goals.

The push for renewable energy is critical in addressing climate change, with wind power at the forefront. As the leading emitter of greenhouse gases, China has embarked on a transformative journey towards greener alternatives, aiming for carbon neutrality by 2060. This ambitious goal is propelled by the rapid growth in wind power, driven by technological advancements and cost reductions. China's proactive stance not only showcases its commitment to environmental sustainability but also positions it as a potential leader in the global shift towards renewable energy sources.

In a recent study (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ese.2023.100323) published in Volume 19 of the journal Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, a joint research group led by Prof Xi LU from School of Environment and Institute for Carbon Neutrality at Tsinghua University presents an innovative method for assessing the economic feasibility and market advantage of onshore wind energy in comparison to conventional energy sources.

This study highlights China's significant strides in adopting wind power, crucial for its 2060 carbon neutrality goal. Wind energy's share in China's power mix has surged, reaching 6.1% with 466.5 TWh produced, and aims for a 2500 GW capacity by 2060. The urgency in power system planning has intensified, necessitating models that accurately forecast the future dynamics of cost reduction and supply potential for wind power, aiming for carbon neutrality by 2060. Many existing analyses have not adequately accounted for the swift decrease in wind power generation costs observed in recent years, often offering forecasts of cost declines that are more conservative than actual trends.

Given the increasing significance of spatial and temporal dynamics in the economic competitiveness of wind energy for China's decarbonization strategy, this research developed a comprehensive model to assess the technical and economic viability of onshore wind power within the country. The evaluation was performed with a high spatial resolution of 0.0625° longitude by 0.0625° latitude, covering a period from 2020 to 2060. Results reveal vast wind power technical potentials as high as 53.9 PWh nationally, equivalent to approximately 7.2 times the electricity consumption in 2020. The average levelized cost of wind power is expected to decline from CNY 0.39 kWh-1 in 2020 to CNY 0.30 and CNY 0.21 kWh-1 in 2030 and 2060. 28.3%, 67.6%, and 97.6% of the technical potentials hold power costs lower than coal power in 2020, 2030, and 2060.

From the perspective of spatial and temporal precision in evaluation, the study represents a significant leap forward in our understanding of wind power's potential in China. The innovative approach not only sheds light on the evolving economics of wind energy but also provides a robust framework for integrating renewable energy sources into national carbon-neutrality strategies. This research is a vital contribution to the ongoing renewable energy research and climate action.

This breakthrough underscores the feasibility of integrating wind power into the energy mix at lower costs, paving the way for sustainable energy solutions. The findings highlight the importance of advancing renewable energy technologies and policies, contributing significantly to global environmental sustainability efforts.

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References

DOI

10.1016/j.ese.2023.100323

Original Source URL

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ese.2023.100323

Funding information

This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (72025401, 71974108, 72140003, and 72204132), the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation BX2021148, the Shuimu Tsinghua Scholar Program 2021SM014, the Tsinghua University-Inditex Sustainable Development Fund, the Erdos - Tsinghua University Collaborative Innovation Project, the Tsinghua-Toyota Joint Research Institute Cross-discipline Program.

About Environmental Science and Ecotechnology

Environmental Science and Ecotechnology (ISSN 2666-4984) is an international, peer-reviewed, and open-access journal published by Elsevier. The journal publishes significant views and research across the full spectrum of ecology and environmental sciences, such as climate change, sustainability, biodiversity conservation, environment & health, green catalysis/processing for pollution control, and AI-driven environmental engineering. The latest impact factor of ESE is 12.6, according to the Journal Citation ReportTM 2022.

 

Turning night into day: A revolutionary approach to 24/7 air quality monitoring using cameras


Peer-Reviewed Publication

CHINESE SOCIETY FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Graphical abstract. 

IMAGE: 

GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT.

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CREDIT: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND ECOTECHNOLOGY




A new research unveils a groundbreaking approach to air quality monitoring, leveraging the power of surveillance cameras with a state-of-the-art hybrid deep learning model. This pioneering method brings a significant leap in accurately measuring air pollutants like PM2.5, PM10, and the Air Quality Index (AQI), day or night. Transforming the way we understand and tackle air pollution, this model opens up new possibilities for environmental health and safety, making air quality monitoring more accessible and effective than ever before.

Air pollution is a critical global health issue, demanding innovative monitoring solutions. Traditional methods, reliant on ground stations, are expensive and geographically limited, hindering comprehensive coverage. Recent strides in technology have spotlighted the potential of using visual data from surveillance cameras as a cost-effective alternative for air quality assessment.

A new study (doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ese.2023.100319) published in Environmental Science and Ecotechnology (Volume 18, 2024) innovates a hybrid deep learning model that significantly improves outdoor air quality monitoring using surveillance camera images. This approach enhances air quality estimations, including PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations and the Air Quality Index (AQI), irrespective of the time of day.

The research team skillfully combined Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, creating a model that intelligently captures both the spatial details present in individual images and the temporal dynamics across a sequence of images. This innovative approach is particularly adept at overcoming the longstanding challenge of accurately estimating air quality during nighttime, a period when traditional image-based methods typically falter due to low light conditions. By analyzing the visual cues in surveillance footage, such as haze and visibility, the model can predict concentrations of particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) and the Air Quality Index (AQI) effectively, both day and night.

Highlights

  • Three time-series image datasets were constructed for air quality assessments.
  • CNN and LSTM are combined to achieve an average estimated R2 > 0.9 throughout the day.
  • Our method enhances nighttime air quality estimation and improves overall accuracy.
  • Our method outperforms existing methods with the differences on R2 being 0.02–0.22.


Dr. Xuejun Liu, lead researcher and corresponding author, emphasizes, "Our model's ability to accurately estimate air quality from images, regardless of day or night, marks a significant step forward in utilizing technology for environmental monitoring. It opens up new avenues for comprehensive air quality assessment in regions lacking infrastructure."

This research signifies a substantial leap forward in environmental monitoring, showcasing the potential to enhance air quality assessments significantly. It opens the door to more dynamic, cost-effective monitoring solutions that could vastly improve our understanding and management of air pollution on a global scale.

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References

DOI

10.1016/j.ese.2023.100319

Original Source URL

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ese.2023.100319

Funding information

This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China [2021YFE0112300]; the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [41771420]; the State Scholarship Fund from the China Scholarship Council (CSC) [201906865016]; and the Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province [KYCX21_1341].

About Environmental Science and Ecotechnology

Environmental Science and Ecotechnology (ISSN 2666-4984) is an international, peer-reviewed, and open-access journal published by Elsevier. The journal publishes significant views and research across the full spectrum of ecology and environmental sciences, such as climate change, sustainability, biodiversity conservation, environment & health, green catalysis/processing for pollution control, and AI-driven environmental engineering. The latest impact factor of ESE is 12.6, according to the Journal Citation ReportTM 2022.

 

Facing illegal wildlife trade in the European union: A call for comprehensive measures


Peer-Reviewed Publication

FACULTY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNIVERSITY OF LISBON

Seizure of about 1000 tarantula spiders of different species at Tom Jobim International Airport in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 2009. 

IMAGE: 

SEIZURE OF ABOUT 1000 TARANTULA SPIDERS OF DIFFERENT SPECIES AT TOM JOBIM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL, IN 2009. ILLEGALLY TRANSPORTED BY A BRITISH PET STORE OWNER, THE SPIDERS WERE ON THEIR WAY FROM PARAGUAY TO EUROPE TO BE SOLD AS PETS.

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CREDIT: IBAMA ARCHIVE – BRAZILIAN INSTITUTE OF ENVIRONMENT AND RENEWABLE NATURAL RESOURCES




New paper now published in Science proposes three measures the European Union should implement to improve open information, legality and sustainability of wildlife trade in the region.

Wildlife trade affects all kinds of species, from insects and fungi to large plants and mammals. The global trade of numerous species poses a significant threat to their survival, increasing their risk of extinction. The European Union is a major global hub for the illegal and unsustainable trade of those species whose international trade is not regulated by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) and new measures recently adopted in the region to mitigate it are not enough.

Pedro Cardoso, a conservation biologist at the Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (CE3C), at the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon (Ciências ULisboa), says “we need better information on the trade of the vast majority of species that are not listed by CITES, to guarantee that the sourcing of these species was made legally in their country of origin and that this sourcing was made in a sustainable way”. According to the involved team of biologists, law experts and economists united under EU project GLITSS – Globalization, Illicit Trade, Sustainability and Security, the EU falls short in ensuring that trade is documented, legal and sustainable, with possible consequences on the survival of the involved species.

The first proposal of the team is to create a database of all trade - legal or illegal - of all species, regardless of their inclusion in specific regulations. Currently any species not listed is not registered by EU countries and there is no information vital to ensure the trade is traced to its origins.

The second proposal is the establishment of a regulation in the EU akin to the Lacey Act in the United States which establishes that if the capture or export of a species was illegal in the country of origin, it is illegal in the US. Adopting similar legislation in the EU would prohibit the import of specimens that violate the laws of their country of origin, not only mitigating regulatory gaps but also contributing to biodiversity preservation in nations facing enforcement challenges due to resource limitations.

Finally, the third proposal is demanding the presentation of evidence supporting the sustainability of trade practices. Even when legal, the trade on many species is putting them under threat. The EU should demand some evidence that the specimens were captured without affecting the sustainability of the populations, particularly important if they were sourced from the wild.

These proposed measures aim to transform the EU from being a global hub for unregistered, illegal, or unsustainable wildlife activities into a model of environmental protection concerning wildlife trade.