Thursday, October 10, 2024

Rethinking Dry Forest Management in a Warming Climate


October 9, 2024
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La Cueva, Santa Fe National Forest. From left to right: Sam Hitt, president of the Santa Fe Forest Coalition, Joey Smallwood M.S., environmental studies and GIS, Cristina Salvador M.S., plant ecologist at the Santa Fe Botanical Garden, Sarah Hyden, co-founder and director of The Forest Advocate, Adam Rissien M.S., environmental studies, ReWilding Manager at WildEarth Guardians, Dominick DellaSala, Ph.D., Chief Scientist at Wild Heritage. Photo: Jonathan Glass, Public Journal and co-founder of The Forest Advocate.

Recently, a group of scientists and conservation organization representatives came together for a series of field days to survey and discuss current ecological conditions on the east side of the Santa Fe National Forest. We, along with others not present on these field days, are planning on creating a conservation alternative to the Santa Fe Mountains Landscape Resiliency Project, an already-in-progress US Forest Service project primarily focused on aggressive tree cutting and prescribed fire across large sections of forest. The Forest Service’s stated purpose of the Santa Fe Mountains Project is to reduce fire risk and to restore forest “health” and “resilience,” but past cutting/burning projects have caused severe ecological damage, and the potential fire mitigation effects are questionable at best. The project is just beginning, and not many acres have been treated so far. It is still possible to alter the course of this project, and to design a holistic alternative that truly protects and restores this unique and beautiful forest that is in the process of climate transition.

The conservation alternative will also be a template for conservation projects in dry forests across the West. It will focus on the retention of water in the ecosystem through a variety of strategies, while greatly decreasing treatments that overly open up and dry out forested landscapes.

Over three days, we viewed relatively undisturbed forest, cutting and burning treatments, and forest burned from wildfire. Various types of disturbances have seriously impacted the Santa Fe Mountains ecosystem. In one area, cutting and burning treatments from 15 years ago have precipitated a dense growth of Gambel oak that is crowding out much of the pre-existing natural understory. Some of the remaining ponderosa pines in the Gambel oak thickets are turning brown, and some are dying. In the Santa Fe watershed, which over two decades ago was aggressively cut and subsequently burned twice, some hillsides appear largely barren. These areas have little understory, little biodiversity, and only similar-size seemingly low-vitality trees with not much but grasses in between.

We observed a burn area from a fire that occurred 22 years ago. We were unable to see any signs of conifer regeneration in the high severity burn area, although there are plans to investigate this further. There also appeared to be little conifer regeneration in a moderate severity section of the same fire.

Although we were already generally aware of conditions in the Santa Fe National Forest, this overview was eye-opening and alarming. Natural disturbances to an ecosystem are normal, and often beneficial, but many of these disturbances are human-caused, and the disturbed areas of our forest appear to be going onto a concerning trajectory. Wetter forests are generally still capable of substantial regeneration after disturbances, but in these dry forests, some areas appear to be type converting into shrublands after cutting and burning treatments, and possibly also after moderate and high severity fire. However, in some cases conifer regeneration in high severity burn areas can naturally take up to two decades or more in dry Southwestern forests. The influence of the combination of a rapidly changing climate and Forest Service treatments could be speeding up vegetation type shifts.

The forests of the Santa Fe Mountains appear to be in the beginning stages of advancing climate impacts. It’s a challenge to develop strategies to protect and restore forests in this situation. The agency approaches are not working – widespread cutting and overly frequent burning are creating landscapes that no longer even resemble forests, but are instead overly-open, dried-out, weed infested landscapes with little natural understory and widely spaced trees prone to blow over. Our conservation alternative will be a call to develop a new forest management paradigm for such dry forests as quickly as possible.

There may be some level of much lighter fuels reduction treatments that these forests can tolerate, but exactly what may work is presently unknown. Recent Forest Service cutting treatments have left somewhat greater residual tree densities than some of the treatments from over a decade ago, but it is unknown if that is enough to avoid serious adverse impacts, especially to forest soils and natural understories. After cutting trees, the trunks and branches are piled and burned, and pile burn scars remain for decades. Pile burning causes such high intensity heat that the natural understory does not tend to come back, and invasive weeds often appear. The Forest Service plans to cut approximately 18,000 acres during the 10-year Santa Fe Mountains Project, and if there are 20 burn piles per acre, they would be burning in the neighborhood of 360,000 piles. That would have a tremendous impact on already dried out soils.

Not nearly enough local research exists on the impacts of aggressive cutting and burning treatments on dry forest understories. It is not clear what the impacts of such treatments are on the mycorrhizal fungal networks that help to retain soil moisture. In the Santa Fe Mountains Project analysis, no references are provided for the composition of historical understories, nor is the composition of current relatively undisturbed local understories identified. Unfortunately, completely undisturbed understories rarely exist in the Santa Fe National Forest due to ongoing cattle grazing, which is permitted in most national forests across the West.

Due to the need for increased knowledge about what is happening to the ecology of this dry forest, and what conditions are optimal to preserve sections that still have adequate ecosystem function, preliminary research studies are in planning or in progress. Dr. Dominick DellaSala et al. have just completed an ecoregional conservation assessment for the southern Rockies, with a focus on the Santa Fe National Forest, which will be an underpinning of the Santa Fe Mountains conservation alternative. The authors found that the Santa Fe National Forest is lagging in terms of multiple conservation goals, and that forests far from communities are receiving treatments which neither provide community protection from wildfire nor appear to have a net ecological benefit. The assessment also projects climate change impacts on the region.

While Dr. DellaSala was in Santa Fe for the field days, he gave a very well-received talk about the ecoregional conservation assessment, at the invitation of the Santa Fe Botanical Garden. He described the impacts of overly aggressive treatments on the dry Santa Fe Mountains forest ecosystem, which he said is not forest restoration, but instead is forest degradation. He pointed out that there are no understory reference conditions, which are necessary for restoration.

This overview of Santa Fe National Forest conditions has coalesced my own views of what may be occurring in the SFNF, and what are the fundamental needs to begin to address regarding forest management in the area. My impressions are:

+ Aggressive cutting and burning are causing severe impacts to forest understories, and it’s hard to see how they can subsequently be restored to a more natural landscape.

+ Moderate to high severity fire could possibly cause ecosystem type conversion in this dry forest. More research is needed regarding post-fire conifer regeneration after high severity fire in this area.

+ Our challenge is to balance the important role of fire on our landscapes vs. possibly increasing impacts of fire on our landscapes.

+ In areas where water retention has been increased by holistic restoration projects, or is already adequate, managing lightning ignitions under safe conditions for ecosystem benefits may be a reasonable option. Limited and carefully implemented prescribed burns may be necessary near communities where managed wildfire may not be acceptable to community members, but the optimal conditions for such burns still need to be determined.

+ Most restoration in this area should be focused on retaining moisture in the ecosystem, instead of drying it out further by aggressive cutting which dries out soils and understory vegetation, and over-burning which suppresses the natural understory. Higher vegetation moisture content reduces flammability. The focus of treatments should be primarily on maintaining ecosystem integrity and function; these forests need approaches that are different from extensive vegetation removal in an attempt to mitigate fire behavior and to match forest structure to agency estimates of historical forest structure.

+ Much more research is needed concerning the impacts of any kinds of disturbances on soils, understory vegetation, and conifer regeneration. It is necessary to have relatively intact understory references in order to consider desired understory conditions.

+ Serious consideration should be given to the effects of forest cutting and burning treatments on mycorrhizal fungi, and maintaining viable mycorrhizal fungi in soils should be a focus.

+ Consideration should be given to determining optimal times and methods in which to implement any potential cutting or burning treatments. Such treatments, if they occur, should be well-considered, strategic, limited, light-handed and include strategies to maintain a relatively natural understory.

+ More attention should be given to modifying human behaviors in forests that can cause fires to ignite.

+ An environmental impact statement should be completed for the Santa Fe Mountains Project to provide a framework in which to do a thorough analysis of the effects of disturbances on this ecologically precarious project landscape, given that effects of disturbances are very different than from even a decade or two ago. All of the adverse impacts of the recent two decades of fuels treatments must be taken into account, including the burning of 387,000 acres of forest from three separate SFNF escaped prescribed burns in 2022.

+ A moratorium on most cutting and burning treatments in the Santa Fe National Forest should be considered until the impacts of treatments during the rapid climate transition have been fully analyzed, and until updated and holistic forest management strategies are developed.

Hillside in Black Canyon, cut in the early 2000’s and burned twice. Photo: Sarah Hyden.

Old Growth in Pacheco Canyon, untreated. Photo: Sarah Hyden.

Santa Fe Municipal Watershed north of the Canada de los Alamos Forest, cut in the early 2000’s and burned twice. Photo: Sarah Hyden.

Gambel oak overgrowth in La Cueva canyon, cut 15 years ago and subsequently burned. It is a fuel break, but it was cut to a similar density of other projects of that time. This photo is from October of 2023, and conditions have not appreciably changed. The Gambel oak overgrowth extends throughout most of the treated area. Photo: Sarah Hyden.

2002 Dalton Fire high severity burn area, next to unburned forest. Little conifer regeneration can be seen. Photo: Sarah Hyden.

Map of field trip sites visited. Blue perimeter represents the Santa Fe Municipal Watershed boundary. Map composite by Jonathan Glass, Public Journal. Base map: ESRI National Geographic.

 

Sarah Hyden has been working to protect the Santa Fe National Forest for well over a decade. She was a co-founder of the Santa Fe Forest Coalition and was the WildEarth Guardians’ Santa Fe National Forest Advocate. In 2019, she co-founded The Forest Advocate, a not-for-profit organization dedicated to protection of the Santa Fe National Forest and all western forests. The Forest Advocate maintains an active website that publishes forest advocacy news and resources — theforestadvocate.org.

Asian-Americans Could Make the Difference in 2024 – and Not Just in Nevada

LIKE THEY DID IN GEORGIA IN 2020

 October 9, 2024
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Photograph by Nathaniel St. Clair

It’s emerging as a major anomaly in the  2024 presidential swing states polls  While Donald Trump is gaining and slightly leading Kamala Harris in three of the most important swing states in the Sunbelt – AZ, GA and NC – Harris still clings to a stubborn polling lead in a fourth swing state, Nevada.  It’s just 1.2 points, according to the latest Real Clear Politics polling averages, but it hasn’t budged much for months.  In fact, Harris has led Trump in most polls in Nevada since late August. And with just a month left in the race, and critical battlegrounds hanging in the balance elsewhere, it’s doubtful that the former president will even make a serious play for the Silver State.

Part of the reason, of course, is the state’s election history.  Nevada hasn’t voted Red since George W. Bush captured the state twice – in 2000 and 2004, by 2.5 and 3.5 points, respectively.  In fact, Democrats – and many Republicans – still tend to think of Nevada as reliably Blue.  Obama twice won the state by sizable margins – 13 and 7 points in 2008 and 2012, respectively.  And Trump has lost the state twice – to Clinton and Biden, each time by nearly 3 points. While far more competitive than neighboring New Mexico, which has leaned Democratic by double digits for years, Nevada, arguably, hasn’t been in serious contention for the past four election cycles. And with just 6 electoral votes – compared to 16 each for NC and GA, and 9 for AZ – there’s good reason for Trump to concentrate his precious campaign resources elsewhere.

But there’s another reason, too, for Nevada’s status as an outlier.  Its fast-growing Asian-American population.  Unlike the nation’s Hispanics, who are tilting increasingly toward Trump, Asian-Americans in Nevada (and elsewhere) are voting Democratic by a 2-1 margin, according to recent polls.  Moreover, their numbers in Nevada are unusually impactful:  Elsewhere in the Sunbelt, Asian Americans constitute no more than 4% of any one state’s total electorate.  But in Nevada, their share is a whopping 12%, giving Harris an important buffer against Hispanic (and other) defections.  According to some local political analysts, it may well be the reason she’s still in the lead.

Harris, of course, is America’s first partly Asian-American presidential candidate which does make her unusually attractive to this demographic group, especially Indian-Americans, the fastest growing segment.  In Nevada, several different nationality groups predominate but none is more important to Harris’s prospects than Filipino-Americans, with close to 200,000 registered voters.  First arriving generations ago as circus workers;  over the years, they’ve become a mainstay of Nevada’s burgeoning entertainment-oriented service sector.  Filipinos from other states where their numbers are much larger – especially in California – also look to Nevada as an attractive retirement center.  In addition to plentiful work, the state offers lower taxes and more affordable homes and a dry temperate climate – a reason many Califoirnians, including Hispanics, are migrating here as well.

Democrats haven’t always noticed the state’s Asian-American population – or conducted serious outreach to win their votes  But a sea change in the party’s thinking occurred in 2020 when Democrats needed to mobilize new voters to try to swing Georgia, a traditional Deep Red state.  In addition to Biden, two Democratic candidates were vying to win their highly-contested Senate contests.  The stakes were high: Not just the presidency, but also control of the Senate.  And the gambit worked:  Asian-Americans, though just 4% of the state’s electorate, turned out in record numbers to support the Democrats, giving Biden & Co their margin of victory.

Harris is well-aware of the strategic potential of Filipinos especially in Nevada.  Just two weeks ago, she launched a major digital ad campaign to coincide with Filipino Heritage Month.  It’s arguably the largest and most targeted outreach to Filipino-Americans in US election history, with virtually nothing on the GOP side to offset its likely impact.  And it’s just the beginning of a non-stop Harris media campaign as the race elsewhere seems to be tilting in Trump’s favor, and Nevada’s importance to an Electoral College victory looms larger than ever

Harris is also ramping up her efforts to capture the Asian-American vote in other swing states where she and Trump are divided by razor-thin margins.  Last month, a major new music video ad campaign aimed specifically at Indian-American voters got underway. Produced by Ritesh Parikh of Awesome TV, the Bollywood-themed campaign incorporates messages in multiple South Asian languages, including Telugu, Tamil, Gujarati, Punjabi and Hindi.  The video includes a song “Nacho, nacho,” which is based on the super-hit number from the 2022 movie RRR.  It features vocals by popular singer Shibani Kashyap along with visuals from the Harris campaign and messages from South Asian and Indian American supporters.  Ajay Bhutoria, a prominent Indian American community leader and chairman of Harris’ National Finance Committee, is responsible for producing and overseeing the video, which is just the first in a series that he plans to release for Harris over the remaining days of the race.

Filipino-Amricans are especially critical in Nevada but In terms of sheer size, no Asian American group is more important for both parties these days than Indian-Americans, with more than 150,000 voters in Georgia and Pennsylvania, and about 100,000 in Michigan, according to the estimates compiled by the Asian American Voter Survey.  Indian-Americans are also the single most affluent population sub-group in the United States, with median incomes above $110,000 per year.  Many Indian-Americans are highly trained professionals in the IT and engineering fields, and they enjoy strong transnational ties back to their homeland where they continue to influence internal politics.  Trump made an unprecedented effort to appeal to Indian-Americans in 2016, and after his victory, named three Indian-Americans, including his incoming UN Ambassador Nikk Haley, to top posts in his administration.  The former president also conducted a major diplomatic offensive to woo India’s popular Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a strategic ally against China in the Pacific – a stance that found favor with Indian-American voters.

There’s an intriguing parallel here:  While Democrats increasingly look to Asian-Americans to offset their losses among Hispanics, Republicans are cultivating Indian-American support as a potential counterweight to the Democrats’ near-monopoly over African-Americans.  Democrats have reason to fear GOP encroachments. According to polls conducted by the Asian American Voter Survey (AAVS) in July,  the number of Indians identifying as Democrats slipped to 54% in 2020, and now stands at just 47%, the lowest Democratic share ever recorded.  Even worse, just 46% of Indian Americans said they would vote for a Democratic candidate in 2024 compared with 65% in 2020.  Indian-American voters, more than many groups, including non-Hispanic Whites, tend to identify with the GOP “prosperity” message and even Trump’s MAGA message resonates with these voters, in part because Modi in India has adopted his own version of it – “Make India Great Again.”  This is potentially an enormous obstacle to the Harris campaign as it seeks to woo these voters back to the Democrats in November.

For Asian-Americans, the renewed attention by Republicans and Democrats alike is long-overdue.  Much as Hispanics have felt for decades, Asian-Americans have felt marginalized from national politics and opportunistically exploited when elections draw near.  Despite their important role in assisting Democrats in 2020, Asian-Americans were shut out from the president’s cabinet – a major diversity setback.  Protests from the Asian-Americans proved deeply embarrassing during Biden’s first year, and despite some fence-mending – including a high-profile White House campaign against Asian hate crimes – the community is still stinging from the administration’s rebuff.  Harris, currently trapped in a statistical dead-heat with Trump nearly everywhere, is well-positioned to make fresh gains with voters who share her cultural heritage.  Indeed, if she does manage to prevail in November, it may be due in no small part to her campaign’s last-ditch massive outreach to voters who have finally come of age.

To be sure, Asian Americans are still a relatively small ethnic constituency nationally, relative to Hispanics (19%) and African-Americans 13%). But while largely unnoticed, they are also far and away the fastest-growing one – with a growth rate (a whopping 81% for 2000-2019, which doubled their size) far surpassing even that of Hispanics.  Thanks to their important role in Georgia in 2020, and potentially several swing states in 2024, both parties are beginning to take notice of their potential and of the need to conduct more sustained outreach beyond election-year pandering.

Still, serious obstacles do remain – including the unusually high percentage of Asian-Americans who are immigrants and therefore, ineligible to vote.  Those who can vote require campaign messaging and materials presented in a plethora of different languages – from Hindi to Tagalog – which may boost campaign costs – especially in local elections – considerably, taxing campaign budgets..  In addition, despite tilting Democratic overall, the ideological and generational diversity – indeed, fragmentation — among Asian-Americans requires Democrats and Republicans alike to craft and vary their messages with greater nuance and precision than with other ethnic constituencies.

And it’s not just Indians or Filipinos.  In battleground Wisconsin, Harris recently sent her husband Doug Emhoff on a campaign swing to appeal to Hmong and Laotian refugees, who first arrived in the aftermath of the Vietnam War.  Most Vietnamese refugees tilt GOP, by a wide margin, but sensing an opening, the Harris campaign decided to send Emhoff to this year’s annual Hmong cultural festival to stump for her candidacy and for the candidacy of down-ballot Democrats running this year.  Why the Hmong?   While a tiny community overall, they are the largest Asian-American demographic in the Badger State, comprising a third of the total, with well over 100,000 eligible voters.  And local Republicans, it turned out, were also in full force at the Hmong festival this year – another precedent. Harris’ last-minute initiative may or may not work, but given the stakes, and the possibility of several states being decided by a swing of a few thousand votes, no group, it seems, is too small to warrant more sustained campaign attention.

And it’s not just the presidency, of course.  Asian-Americans, like Hispanics, are beginning to show up in ever increasing numbers as mayoral and state assembly candidates, as well as contenders for positions in the US Senate.  A Hmong candidate is currently vying for a seat in the Wisconsin state assembly, a first for the community.  And Vietnamese-born Hung Cao, the first Vietnamese member of the Virginia state assembly, is running against veteran Democrat and former 2016 vice-presidential candidate Tim Kaine for a seat in the US Senate, representing the Commonwealth, another major precedent.

All in all, whoever wins the presidency this year, the 2024 race will likely be a watershed, or an inflection point, in American politics.  Once an afterthought, or mere bystanders to the nation’s governing processes,  Asian-Americans – separately, and in a broader alliance – are beginning to exercise considerable leverage over the nation’s two parties – as well as third parties that can offer fresh outlets for political representation. It’s incumbent upon the two parties to spend the additional resources needed to fully integrate Asian Americans into their campaign strategies – and not just out of expediency, but out of a deep-seated respect for the communities and their contribution to America’s ever-expanding cultural mosaic.

Stewart Lawrence is a long-time Washington, DC-based policy consultant.  He can be reached at stewartlawrence811147@gmail.com.