Showing posts sorted by relevance for query AMERICAN CONSPIRACIES. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query AMERICAN CONSPIRACIES. Sort by date Show all posts

Saturday, July 29, 2023

THE WEIRDEST POLITICAL CONSPIRACY THEORIES IN 19TH CENTURY AMERICA

THE GRUNGE

Though it may seem like a modern plague, conspiracies have been with us for quite a long time. Generations of humans have been worrying about mysterious cabals and shadowy yet powerful figures for ages. In fact, strange conspiracy theories have been bubbling in the human consciousness for millennia, stretching back to ancient Romans fretting over who started the fire that burned much of their capital city in A.D. 64 (via Memory Studies). And, as Lapham's Quarterly notes, Jewish people in medieval Europe could be killed by mobs fueled by false rumors of a well-poisoning conspiracy, all supposedly put in place to eliminate the Gentiles. Around the same time, many also fretted about the specter of a secret yet immensely powerful network commanded by the Knights Templar, while others were constantly on the lookout for an as-yet-unrevealed Antichrist whose appearance had been prophesied in the Bible (per USC News).

When it comes to American history, conspiracies had a serious heyday in the 19th century. It makes sense given the nation was rocked by political parties constantly jockeying for power and increasingly dire tensions over the issue of slavery. Even after the nation had begun its recovery from the Civil War, conspiracies still lingered, pointing to hidden actors in the nation's political system. As so often happens with unfettered speculation over time, things could get pretty strange. These are some of the weirdest conspiracy theories in 19th-century American politics.

19TH CENTURY POLITICAL CONSPIRACIES DIDN'T COME OUT OF NOWHERE


American politics have nearly always been mired in some sort of conspiracy theory. Less than a decade after the American Revolution drew to a close in 1783, political parties were already volleying claims of backroom deals at one another.

The trouble began in the last decade of the 18th century. According to TIME, Massachusetts minister Jedidiah Morse seemed to be the source of the trouble, at least on American soil. In his sermons, Morse began to claim that the "Bavarian Illuminati" had infiltrated American society with the aim to upend both the newly-formed government and Christianity itself. He pointed to the revolution that was at the time tearing France apart, taking particular note of the atheistic Jacobins who were busy closing French churches and promoting a secular way of life. The Illuminati, he claimed, was also ready to promote a lurid way of life that laughed at notions of fidelity, chastity, and social order.

Morse went even further to tie in the future president Thomas Jefferson and his Democratic-Republican party. Morse was a devoted Federalist, counting himself among the political opponents of the Democratic-Republicans. Soon enough, others fell in line with Morse's alarmist thinking, including the president of Yale. As the new century dawned, the conspiracy fell out of favor but never fully went away. Even today, some Americans still fear that the mysterious Illuminati are running things toward evil, despite a considerable lack of evidence.

CATHOLICISM BECAME LINKED TO POLITICAL CONSPIRACY


In the early decades of the 19th century, American nativists were fighting for their rights against the invaders. Only these nativists were not American Indians indigenous to North America. Instead, as Smithsonian Magazine reports, they were members of a quasi-secret society who purported to be of "pure" Anglo-Saxon heritage. And the invaders? Well, Catholics, of course.

The society in question would eventually come to be known as the "Know Nothing" party, so called for its members' habit of feigning ignorance of the group when questioned. Though the political party would grow in power, its main fears centered on the notion that immigrants from majority Catholic nations, such as Ireland, were undermining the fabric of American society.

The United States in the 1840s was indeed accepting a wave of Irish Catholic immigrants, as Politico reports. According to this conspiracy theory, these Catholics were not true Americans, instead holding allegiance only to the Pope, who was set on destroying Protestant America. To that end, Catholic representatives were said to be guilty of lurid misdeeds, such as murdering infants and kidnapping young women. Never mind that no evidence of such crimes was ever uncovered. In response to the accusations, the Know Nothings and other nativist political groups helped pass laws that limited alcohol consumption and restricted immigration. This made it all the more difficult for new arrivals to participate in civic life or even find employment in their new home.


THE KNOW NOTHING PARTY THRIVED ON CONSPIRACY

The Know Nothing party first took shape as a secret society, originally called the Order of United Americans, then the Order of the Star Spangled Banner. According to Smithsonian Magazine, the order eventually became an organization of powerful players, established its own political party, and reached its apex of influence in the 1850s. Know Nothings became governors and legislators throughout the nation, briefly becoming a serious force in American politics. They were elected largely because of their conspiratorial view toward immigrants, who they argued were intentionally destroying the American way of life. It wasn't just Irish Catholics who loomed unnaturally large in the political imagination. The Know Nothings positioned German immigrants and women's rights suffragists as equally nefarious groups. People became so riled up by these opportunistic political conspiracies that they burned churches and formed violent gangs.

The Know Nothings rose to prominence by playing on the fear and rage of their fellow Americans. But this was not a strong enough foundation and the group soon crumbled. As time wore on, it became more and more difficult for the party to ignore the issue of slavery, which it had tried to avoid. Furthermore, devotees of the party may have also realized that its vision of a United States peopled only by "pure" white Protestants was ridiculously unattainable.

ANTEBELLUM SLAVEHOLDERS FEARED A BLACK REPUBLICAN CONSPIRACY


In the lead-up to the American Civil War, political conspiracies became widespread and widely believed, according to "Plots, Designs, and Schemes." They also became more and more focused on what was surely the most divisive issue at that point in American history: slavery.

In the South, slave owners became convinced that agents from the North were infiltrating their communities and wreaking havoc to undermine their way of life. During the 1830s, one of the prevailing theories was that abolitionists were actually being directed by the British, who were intent on destroying rebellious American democracy (and economic competition). Others argued that the call was coming from inside the house and that bigwigs in the Republican Party were engaged in a conspiracy to outlaw slavery. They became known as "Black Republicans."

Some kernels of truth inflamed these conspiracies further. As The Guardian reports, Abraham Lincoln (himself a Republican), referred to the "ultimate extinction" of slavery in 1858. Although the party did work to limit the expansion of slavery, pre-Civil War Republicans did little to actually stop the practice or roll back the institution of slavery as it had been entrenched in the South. For some Southern leaders, those details didn't matter. William Harris, who advocated for the secession of Mississippi, wrote that his state "will never submit to the principles and policy of this black Republican administration." Though it wasn't true, the conspiracy clearly had some very real effects.


ABOLITIONISTS HELD THEIR OWN CONSPIRACY THEORIES

While Southern slave owners were becoming alarmed at the idea of outsiders actively working to disassemble their culture and economy, anti-slavery abolitionists had their own suspicions. The "slave power" conspiracy alleged that slave owners had already infiltrated all levels of the government and were working to make their way of life the norm for all (via "Plots, Designs, and Schemes").

Though abolitionists on their own may not have been able to make it all the way to the Emancipation Proclamation, "Plots, Designs, and Schemes" notes that they were given a boost by the "slave power" conspiracies and similar suspicions. Northerners who were previously indifferent to slavery or who even held some seriously racist beliefs began to believe that maybe, just maybe, the Southerners really were worming their way into too much power. Some even alleged that it went all the way to the top, with the president himself either one of them or too weak to resist the "slave power" conspirators.

Though there was no evidence ever uncovered to support this — in fact, that would have been diametrically opposed to the conspiracies popular in the South — the "slave power" suspicions seem to have united many disparate groups in the buildup to the Civil War. Scholars even argue that, strange as it may have sounded to some, this particular conspiracy led to the rise of the Republican Party in the 19th century.

SOME STATES SECEDED BECAUSE OF CONSPIRACY

While some American political conspiracies may have seemed laughable in the first decades of the 19th century, they became harder to ignore as time went on. Tensions over the issue of slavery grew, as did fights over just how states were supposed to handle the issue. Eventually, things reached a breaking point. On December 20, 1860, South Carolina became the first state to secede from the Union. According to the National Park Service, this and the following secessions were touched off by the 1860 election of Republican Abraham Lincoln. Yet a closer look at secession declarations shows that conspiracies played their role in the breakup, too.

In its declaration of secession, Texas was convinced the North had sent emissaries to wreak havoc in its territory. This didn't just involve undermining the culture of the South or spreading fear and doubt in the minds of Southerners. The purported misdeed also included more obvious crimes, including such nefarious acts as poisoning the water supply of communities and committing arson in towns throughout the state. According to The Atlantic, other states made similar claims, arguing that Lincoln and his allies wanted not only to upend their way of life but to simply kill Southerners. Given Lincoln's recorded intent to reconcile with the South after the Civil War ended — to the point where even his allies thought he was being too soft on the rebels (via History) — this seems all the more unbelievable.

REAL SLAVE REBELLIONS WERE WARPED INTO FEAR-MONGERING CONSPIRACIES

In the 19th century, American slave owners thought the threat of a slave rebellion loomed largely. Could enslaved people have grown so tired of their inhumane treatment that they were planning a large-scale revolt? The idea makes sense. According to Britannica, the Haitian Revolution concluded in 1804 after a rebellion ousted the French and established the first country to be run by former slaves. Was it such a stretch to imagine that a similar thing might happen on U.S. soil?

As The Atlantic points out, slave rebellion did occur in the U.S. So too did conspiracy theories abound of organized slaves on the threshold of revolution, perhaps helped along by the abolitionists. It didn't help that John Brown actually did attempt to encourage an armed uprising amongst slaves in 1859 Virginia. Never mind that his attack fizzled and Brown himself was executed later that year. For some, this was enough evidence to confirm a widespread slave rebellion plot, with a few indulging in fantastical tales of vicious, well-organized people who wanted nothing more than bloody revenge. It was only a short step from that to believe that emancipation would be nothing less than the end of all white people. However, as the rest of United States history after the 1863 Emancipation Proclamation has made clear, no such thing ever happened.

NEWSPAPERS TIED LINCOLN ASSASSINS TO A LARGER PLOT


On April 14, 1865, President Abraham Lincoln's outing at Ford's Theater ended in his assassination by actor John Wilkes Booth. According to History, Booth had assembled a small group of conspirators to first kidnap Lincoln. When that plan failed, they decided instead to murder the president.

But was the assassination really the work of only a few people? As Ford's Theatre reports, some thought that the plot was beyond the abilities of some second-rate actor and his friends. Almost immediately after Lincoln's death, newspapers began hinting that the president's demise was the work of a larger, more organized group of Southern rebels.

The roster of potential masterminds behind the supposed plot included Confederate President Jefferson Davis and Confederate Secretary of State Judah P. Benjamin. Old religious prejudices came into play, with some arguing that Benjamin (who was Jewish) was influenced by a larger network of anti-Lincoln European bankers. Or was it the Catholics? After all, weren't some of the Booth conspirators devout followers of the Pope? Could Irish-Americans, who had largely opposed the war and rioted against a Union draft, be behind it? Heck, the murder might even have been ordered by Union officials who weren't keen on Lincoln's soft approach to the former Confederacy. However, Ford's Theatre points out that none of these conspiracies were ever proven true. Instead, the consensus remains that the assassination was in fact the work of Booth and a few of his associates.


SOME CONSPIRACISTS LIED TO THE PRESIDENT HIMSELF

When it comes to conspiracies, one of their reliable throughlines is that they're usually bunk. For many, most conspiracy theories are utterly ridiculous, like the idea that we are ruled by lizards or that the Earth is flat. Yet, every once in a while, conspiracy theories turn out to be true, like when the Iran-Contra affair really was a conspiracy to sell weapons and fun a Nicaraguan rebellion, as reported by NewScientist.

In the 19th century, one conspiracy theory fooled even the president. But those involved believed they were doing it for a good reason, given that the president was dying. According to The Washington Post, it all began with an assassination attempt. On July 2, 1881, Charles Guiteau — himself the victim of a conspiratorial thought that had him believing he was a political force and not a mentally ill nobody — shot President James Garfield at a train station. Garfield's doctor attempted to find the bullet lodged in his body by digging around in the wound with unsterilized equipment and hands. The president lingered for weeks before dying of a massive infection on September 19. Before that, his doctors issued cheerful reports to the newspapers, saying that he was "sleeping sweetly" or that "his eyes have regained their old-time sparkle." This was apparently an attempt to bolster the confidence of both the American public and Garfield himself, though eventually even the doctors had to admit their lie when the president finally died.


THE CHINESE EXCLUSION ACT WAS BASED ON CONSPIRATORIAL THINKING


By now, it's probably painfully clear to everyone that, wild as they may be, conspiracy theories can have some very serious consequences in the real world. They've been used as excuses to start wars, gain power, and sell newspapers. Even when a conspiracy isn't quite poised to tear a nation to pieces, it can be used to alienate an entire group of people for no reason other than the fact that they are "different."

In the post-Civil War world of American politics, that concept may have reached its zenith with the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882, which seriously restricted immigrants based on Chinese racial background. According to History, the act didn't come out of nowhere. It followed years of increasing worries that Chinese workers, who entered the country to work in the mining and construction booms of the mid-19th century, were going to bring society and the economy down. Real economic downturns, increasing labor competition, and concerns about "racial purity" led to the passage of the act.

Proponents of the act, such as San Francisco mayor James D. Phelan, alleged that Chinese immigrants weren't just somehow simultaneously barbaric and "cunning", but part of a larger force that would devastate America through disease and erosion of the much-beloved, vaguely-defined American way of life. This anti-Chinese sentiment, tinged with hints of conspiracy, sadly came to light again in the U.S. with the rise of the COVID-19 pandemic .

BY SARAH CROCKER
OCT. 4, 2022 

FOR PICTURES  & GRAPHICS




SEE



Saturday, March 12, 2005

Libertarian Anti-Imperialism

William Appleman Williams

I had come across Joseph Stromberg’s libertarian analysis of Anti-Imperialist American Historian William Appleman Williams, some time ago on the web and had the opportunity to cruise Stromberg’s column at antiwar.com again and thought it important enough to share.

I had not heard of Williams before, and appreciated Stromberg’s introduction to this overlooked American revisionist historian.

I came to appreciate why his socialist critique of American Empire and foreign policy would influence Americans of both the Libertarian Left and the Right. "
Radicals have hailed him as a supreme anti-imperialist, while Libertarian conservatives have seen him as the ``second Charles Beard,'' renewing the perspectives of the nation's foremost historian. says Paul Buhle.

Williams fell out of favour in the eighties and nineties as the neo-liberal ideology steamrolled over its opponents on the left after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Williams however is has not been left as an obscure footnote in history. His work is now considered essential in understanding American Imperialism in the age of Globalization.

With Stromberg’s appreciation of Williams, written in 1999 at the height of Clintons Popular Front War against Serbia, we see libertarian dialectical analysis unafraid to confront a marxian dialectic and appreciate it. Williams insight into American Imperialism became even more relevant as America pursued its new preemptive strike policy post 9/11 against the neo-cons old straw dog Iraq.

An essential aspect of Libertarian Dialectics is the praxis of revisionist history. In this we need no conspiracy theories to understand that the ruling ideas are the ideas of the ruling class, and that theirs is a history of the winners and losers. Our revisionism arises from understanding this dialectic we look at history from below, not from the losers, but the actual historical actors who have created the social change in the first place, the people themselves, as individuals and as social beings.

Stromberg is not your papa's libertarianism. It is not Republicanism Right, nor is it "vulgar libertarianism" or "liberaltarianism". If Kevin Carson is a Free Market Anti-Capitalist then Stromberg is a Libertarian Anti-Imperialist.

Stromberg is a consistent and outspoken opponent of Imperialism and War from a Libertarian perspective. And he has been so when such opposition on the right was tantamount to treason, which it has been in every case of American intervention abroad regardless of the popular opposition to it. Even now as half the American population opposes the Iraq war the Right continues to wave the flag of patriotism (the last refuge of a scoundrel as Bernard Shaw said) for their boys, and girls, over there. Why they are there is less important than supporting them once they are there, says the patriot regardless of whether they belong to the Democrats or Republicans. Stromberg consistently has asked why they are there and his answer is a consistent Anti-Imperialism in the tradition of Mark Twain.

Carson and Stromberg are amongst the few and the brave, who use Libertarian Dialectics, to confront the right wing liberaltarians and those who would reduce revisionist history to being a caricature of itself; conspiracy theory. Revisionist history is not a creature of the right but of the left, its essence is historical materialism, unable to accept this basic fact, the right insists on reducing every act to those of conspiracies amongst the rulers over the ruled.

So I am pleased to offer this introduction to Williams by Stromberg and a link to the rest of the article on Williams here on my blog. As well as readers will know from my web writings I have included other references to Williams as well as examples of his writings available on the web.


William Appleman Williams:

Premier New Left Revisionist

A PROGRESSIVE HISTORIAN

by
Joseph R.
Stromberg

Last week in a discussion of Charles Austin Beard, "isolationist" Progressive historian, I mentioned Beard's influence on a number of younger scholars, among them William Appleman Williams and Murray N. Rothbard. Williams emerged in the late 1950s as the spearhead of New Left diplomatic history and has had an enduring influence on the writing of American history. "Mainstream" scholars take his insights into account but acknowledge his impact only in the most backhanded way possible. It is probably among libertarians and anti-imperialist conservatives that Williams now finds his true following.

A LIFE IN HISTORY

William Appleman Williams (1921-1990) was born in Iowa in and attended the U.S. Naval Academy. He served in the Pacific in World War II. As influences on his thought, I should mention Beard, John Adams, James Madison, Walter Prescott Webb (whose writings on the frontier – ending with The Great Frontier – treated a theme which Williams made his own), and – in a generic sort of way – Karl Marx. One doubts, however, that Williams was ever really a "Marxist," despite the Cold War liberals' joy in awarding him that title.

After the war, he took a PhD in History at the University of Wisconsin, which was still something of a bastion of the old-style Progressive history. His first book, American-Russian Relations, 1781-1947 [1952] had a small impact and led Mr. Vital Center himself – Arthur Schlesinger, Jr., a founder of Cold War liberalism – to attack Williams as a "pro-Communist scholar."1 In 1957, Williams returned to teach at Wisconsin, where he and his graduate students became known as the "Wisconsin school" of diplomatic history. Late in life, he taught at Oregon State University and served as President of the Organization of American Historians. Even in the turbulent "sixties," he was critical of New Left excesses. He would have hated the present university climate of political correctness.

A BODY OF WORK

His Tragedy of American Diplomacy [1959; 1972] was noticed by the scholarly community, although the Cold War liberals, of course, hated it. The House Un-American Activities Committee noticed his work and wasted his time with summonses which were suddenly revoked after he had spent money and time traveling to hearings. This petty harassment was continued for a while by another government agency I need not mention.

As the quagmire in Vietnam raised fundamental questions about the policies pursued – with mere differences of nuance – by Cold War liberals and conservatives, Williams began to find an audience for his ideas. Book followed book. Here I shall only mention the very important Contours of American History [1961, 1973], the two-volumes of readings in American diplomatic history (The Shaping of American Diplomacy [1966, 1967]), America Confronts a Revolutionary World [1976] and Empire as a Way of Life [1980].

Joseph R. Stromberg has been writing for libertarian publications since 1973, including The Individualist, Reason, the Journal of Libertarian Studies, Libertarian Review, and the Agorist Quarterly, and is completing a set of essays on America's wars. He is a part-time lecturer in History at the college level. You can read his recent essay, "The Cold War," on the Ludwig von Mises Institute Website. His column, "The Old Cause," appears each Tuesday onAntiwar.com

William Appleman Williams Learning From History
American Radicals , American Radicals series

Paul Buhle and Edward Rice-Maximin

``I prefer to die as a free man struggling to create a human community than as a pawn of empire,'' wrote historian William Appleman Williams in 1976.

Annapolis graduate and World War II Naval officer, civil rights activist and President of the Organization of American Historians, Williams (1921-1990) is remembered as the pre-eminent historian and critic of Empire in the second half of this century. More than any other scholar, he anticipated, encouraged and explained the attack of conscience suffered by the nation during the Vietnam War. Radicals have hailed him as a supreme anti-imperialist, while Libertarian conservatives have seen him as the ``second Charles Beard,'' renewing the perspectives of the nation's foremost historian. Fellow historians consider him a great figure in American thought at large, one who looked for large patterns and asked the right questions.

Counterpunch also has an excellent article on Williams’s relevancy today in light of the new age of American Imperialism:

The Relevance of William Appleman Williams

History and the Tragedy of American Diplomacy


"William Appleman Williams suggested that in spite of its best intentions American foreign policy was based largely on a one-dimensional American belief that Americans and American democracy had all the answers. The sad truth is that that belief might not be far wrong, but the inflexibility of the administrators in charge of its application has contributed to a century of failure in foreign relations.

According to Williams, American diplomacy was based on three premises, which, for all intents and purposes, have not changed and maintain a contemporary validity and relevance. The first is the humanitarian impulse to help other people solve their problems. The second principle encourages self-determination, which insists that every society have the right to establish its own goals or objectives, and to realize them internally through the means it decides are appropriate. Third-and here's the kicker-American diplomacy has typically insisted that other people cannot really solve their problems and improve their lives unless they follow the American formula. The contradiction evident in this third premise effectively nullifies the genuine best interests of the first two, but it also speaks volumes about the global perception of American arrogance."


American Marxism: Theory without Tradition
by John B. Judis , Washington editor of In These Times and has recently completed a biography of William F. Buckley.


The Choice Before Us by William Appleman Williams
The
American Socialist, July 1957

Preface: History as a Way of Learning
Excerpted from The Contours of American History
by William Appleman Williams (1966) pp. 17-23.

Martin Luther King and the New American Frontier
By William Appleman Williams and Lewis Kreinberg

for Renewal Magazine. Originally Published April 5, 1968.

William Appleman Williams and the Myth of Economic Determinism
Steven Hurst
Manchester Metropolitan University
Paper prepared for the APG Conference, Reading, January 3-5 2003

Kindleberger on Bretton Woods
Redefining the Past: Essays in Honor of William Appleman Williams

Thursday, September 12, 2024

 

An exit for even the deepest rabbit holes: Personalized conversations with chatbot reduce belief in conspiracy theories



Summary author: Walter Beckwith


American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)





Personalized conversations with a trained artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot can reduce belief in conspiracy theories – even in the most obdurate individuals – according to a new study. The findings, which challenge the idea that such beliefs are impervious to change, point to a new tool for combating misinformation. “It has become almost a truism that people ‘down the rabbit hole’ of conspiracy belief are almost impossible to reach,” write the authors. “In contrast to this pessimistic view, we [show] that a relatively brief conversation with a generative AI model can produce a large and lasting decrease in conspiracy beliefs, even among people whose beliefs are deeply entrenched.” Conspiracy theories – beliefs that some secret but influential malevolent organization is responsible for an event or phenomenon – are notoriously persistent and pose a serious threat to democratic societies. Yet despite their implausibility, a large fraction of the global population has come to believe in them, including as much as 50% of the United States population by some estimates. The persistent belief in conspiracy theories despite clear counterevidence is often explained by social-psychological processes that fulfill psychological needs and by the motivation to maintain identity and group memberships.  Current interventions to debunk conspiracies among existing believers are largely ineffective.

 

Thomas Costello and colleagues investigated whether Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT-4 Turbo can effectively debunk conspiracy theories by using their vast information access and by using tailored counterarguments that respond directly to specific evidence presented by believers. In a series of experiments encompassing 2,190 conspiracy believers, participants engaged in several personalized interactions with an LLM, sharing their conspiratorial beliefs and the evidence they felt supported them. In turn, the LLM responded by directly refuting these claims through tailored, factual and evidence-based counterarguments. A professional fact-checker hired to evaluate the accuracy of the claims made by GPT-4 Turbo reported that, of these claims, 99.2% were rated as “true,” 0.8% as “misleading,” and 0 as “false”; and none were found to contain liberal or conservative bias. Costello et al. found that these AI-driven dialogues reduced participants’ misinformed beliefs by an average of 20%. This effect lasted for at least 2 months and was observed across various unrelated conspiracy theories, as well as across demographic categories. According to the authors, the findings challenge the idea that evidence and arguments are ineffective once someone has adopted a conspiracy theory. They also question social-psychological theories that focus on psychological needs and motivations as the main drivers of conspiracy beliefs. “For better or worse, AI is set to profoundly change our culture,” write Bence Bago and Jean-François Bonnefon in a related Perspective. “Although widely criticized as a force multiplier for misinformation, the study by Costello et al. demonstrates a potential positive application of generative AI’s persuasive power.”

 

A version of the chatbot referenced in this paper can be visited at https://www.debunkbot.com/conspiracies.

 

***A related embargoed news briefing was held on Tuesday, 10 September, as a Zoom Webinar. Recordings can be found at the following links:

The passcode for both is &M67bgdd

Can AI talk us out of conspiracy theories?


New MIT Sloan research shows that conversations with large language models can successfully reduce belief in conspiracy theories



Peer-Reviewed Publication

MIT Sloan School of Management




Have you ever tried to convince a conspiracy theorist that the moon landing wasn’t staged? You likely didn’t succeed, but ChatGPT might have better luck, according to research by MIT Sloan School of Management professor David Rand and American University professor of psychology Thomas Costello, who conducted the research during his postdoctoral position at MIT Sloan.

In a new paper “Durably reducing conspiracy beliefs through dialogues with AI” published in Science, the researchers show that large language models can effectively reduce individuals’ beliefs in conspiracy theories — and that these reductions last for at least 2 months — a finding that offers new insights into the psychological mechanisms behind the phenomenon as well as potential tools to fight the spread of conspiracies.

Going down the rabbit hole

Conspiracy theories — beliefs that certain events are the result of secret plots by influential actors — have long been a subject of fascination and concern. Their persistence in the face of counter-evidence has led to the conclusion that they fulfill deep-seated psychological needs, rendering them impervious to facts and logic. According to this conventional wisdom, once someone “falls down the rabbit hole,” it’s virtually impossible to pull them back out.

But for Rand, Costello, and their co-author professor Gordon Pennycook from Cornell University, who have conducted extensive research on the spread and uptake of misinformation, that conclusion didn’t ring true. Instead, they suspected a simpler explanation was at play.

“We wondered if it was possible that people simply hadn’t been exposed to compelling evidence disproving their theories,” Rand explained. “Conspiracy theories come in many varieties — the specifics of the theory and the arguments used to support it differ from believer to believer. So if you are trying to disprove the conspiracy but haven’t heard these particular arguments, you won’t be prepared to rebut them.”

Effectively debunking conspiracy theories, in other words, would require two things: personalized arguments and access to vast quantities of information — both now readily available through generative AI.

Conspiracy conversations with GPT4

To test their theory, Costello, Pennycook, and Rand harnessed the power of GPT-4 Turbo, OpenAI’s most advanced large language model, to engage over 2,000 conspiracy believers in personalized, evidence-based dialogues.

The study employed a unique methodology that allowed for deep engagement with participants' individual beliefs. Participants were first asked to identify and describe a conspiracy theory they believed in using their own words, along with the evidence supporting their belief.

GPT-4 Turbo then used this information to generate a personalized summary of the participant's belief and initiate a dialogue. The AI was instructed to persuade users that their beliefs were untrue, adapting its strategy based on each participant’s unique arguments and evidence.

These conversations, lasting an average of 8.4 minutes, allowed the AI to directly address and refute the specific evidence supporting each individual’s conspiratorial beliefs, an approach that was impossible to test at scale prior to the technology’s development.

A significant — and durable — effect

The results of the intervention were striking. On average, the AI conversations reduced the average participant's belief in their chosen conspiracy theory by about 20%, and about 1 in 4 participants — all of whom believed the conspiracy beforehand — disavowed the conspiracy after the conversation. This impact proved durable, with the effect remaining undiminished even two months post-conversation.

The AI conversation’s effectiveness was not limited to specific types of conspiracy theories. It successfully challenged beliefs across a wide spectrum, including conspiracies that potentially hold strong political and social salience, like those involving COVID-19 and fraud during the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

While the intervention was less successful among participants who reported that the conspiracy was central to their worldview, it did still have an impact, with little variance across demographic groups.

Notably, the impact of the AI dialogues extended beyond mere changes in belief. Participants also demonstrated shifts in their behavioral intentions related to conspiracy theories. They reported being more likely to unfollow people espousing conspiracy theories online, and more willing to engage in conversations challenging those conspiratorial beliefs.

The opportunities and dangers of AI

Costello, Pennycook, and Rand are careful to point to the need for continued responsible AI deployment since the technology could potentially be used to convince users to believe in conspiracies as well as to abandon them.

Nevertheless, the potential for positive applications of AI to reduce belief in conspiracies is significant. For example, AI tools could be integrated into search engines to offer accurate information to users searching for conspiracy-related terms.

“This research indicates that evidence matters much more than we thought it did — so long as it is actually related to people’s beliefs,” Pennycook said. “This has implications far beyond just conspiracy theories: Any number of beliefs based on poor evidence could, in theory, be undermined using this approach.”

Beyond the specific findings of the study, its methodology also highlights the ways in which large language models could revolutionize social science research, said Costello, who noted that the researchers used GPT-4 Turbo to not only conduct conversations but also to screen respondents and analyze data.

“Psychology research used to depend on graduate students interviewing or conducting interventions on other students, which was inherently limiting,” Costello said. “Then, we moved to online survey and interview platforms that gave us scale but took away the nuance. Using artificial intelligence allows us to have both.”

These findings fundamentally challenge the notion that conspiracy believers are beyond the reach of reason. Instead, they suggest that many are open to changing their views when presented with compelling and personalized counter-evidence.

“Before we had access to AI, conspiracy research was largely observation and correlational, which led to theories about conspiracies filling psychological needs,” said Costello. “Our explanation is more mundane — much of the time, people just didn’t have the right information.”

Saturday, July 11, 2020


Mourning in America: But after the Trump era's darkness, a rebirth is still possible
At last, the American people have awakened to the dangers of this president. But the worst may still lie ahead



CHAUNCEY DEVEGA SALON JULY 10, 2020 

Since Election Day 2016, America has been in a state of mourning.

Donald Trump's Independence Day speeches offered more of the almost never-ending funeral ceremonies for America's democracy, dignity and decency. Instead of trumpet-like exhortations to American greatness and goodness on the country's birthday, Trump chose to deliver horribly off-key funereal dirges.
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Trump's speeches were celebrations of white racism and neo-fascism, declarations that those Americans who dare to oppose him are de facto enemies of the state to be purged from the body politic.

Some of America's most respected historians have certified Donald Trump to be one of the worst presidents of all time.

Trump can do no better because he is inexorably compelled and attracted to the worst parts of America's past and present. In that way Donald Trump, his followers, enablers, voters, supporters and other allies are the human embodiment of almost everything wrong with American society.

Writing for the Washington Post, David Nakamura described Trump's Fourth of July weekend speeches, comparing them to his infamous "American Carnage" inaugural address:

Nearly 3½ years later, in the president's telling, the carnage is still underway but this time the enemy is closer to home — other Americans whose racial identity and cultural beliefs are toppling the nation's heritage and founding ideals….

As he has so often during his tenure, the president made clear that he will do little to try to heal or unify the country ahead of the November presidential election but rather aims to drive a deeper wedge into the country's fractures.

At Mount Rushmore, under the granite gaze of four U.S. presidents, Trump railed against "angry mobs" pursuing "far-left fascism" and a "left-wing cultural revolution" that has manifested in the assault on statues and monuments celebrating Confederate leaders and other U.S. historical figures, including some former presidents, amid the mass racial justice protests of recent weeks.

A day later, on the South Lawn of the White House, Trump's rhetoric was, if anything, even harsher. "We are now in the process of defeating the radical left — the Marxists, the anarchists, the agitators, the looters," he told his assembled guests on what is supposed to be a day of national celebration. As Nakamura observed:
In making the case that a radical and violent ideology underpins much of the social justice movement that propelled the nationwide demonstrations, Trump has dropped virtually all pretense that he supports millions of peaceful protesters who have called for broad reforms to address what they see as systemic racism and a culture of brutality in police departments.

Instead, he warned of a "growing danger" to the values of the nation's founders — a "merciless campaign to wipe out our history, defame our heroes, erase our values, and indoctrinate our children."

Trump even described those Americans who oppose him as being akin to Nazis or terrorists. Almost explicit in Trump's Independence Day speeches are threats of violence and destruction. He does not believe in the core tenets of democracy and normal politics, such as compromise and consensus-seeking within the constraints of an agreed-upon set of rules.

While political debates in America have often been intense and sometimes quite violent — see the Civil War — the nation's political leaders for the most part still shared a fundamental belief in the system and the need to preserve it for future generations. Donald Trump and his allies have no such principled commitments.

As with other authoritarians and demagogues, Donald Trump's threats must be taken seriously. Trump is not engaging in harmless hyperbole or mere attention-seeking and distracting behavior.

In addition to Trump's repeated public use of stochastic violence and his outright threats to have Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and other prominent Democrats jailed for treason — or worse — there is the president's ominous private behavior to consider as well.

As recounted by former national security advisor John Bolton in his new book, Donald Trump wants journalists to be killed. Trump also supports Chinese President Xi Jinping's use of concentration camps where Uighur Muslims have been tortured and killed.

To make matters worse, America's state of mourning is also a literal season of death with the coronavirus pandemic. Because he is only capable of destruction, Trump has made decisions about the pandemic that have led to the deaths of at least 133,000 Americans and counting.

In another example of Trump and his cabal's barbarism and disdain toward the American people, the administration's new "plan" for "confronting" the coronavirus pandemic is to habituate and condition the public into accepting hundreds of thousands of deaths as somehow being a "new normal," which might also include the needless deaths of school children from the coronavirus pandemic.

At the New Yorker, Robin Wright summarizes the pathetic condition of America in the Age of Trump:

The sorry state of America's political and physical health ripples across the globe. The United States, long the bedrock of the Western alliance, is less inspirational today — and perhaps will be even less so tomorrow…. This Fourth of July holiday is one of the most humbling in our history. Even at the height of world wars or the Great Depression, America inspired. But, today, the United States is destroying the moral authority it once had. There will still be fireworks. And the Statue of Liberty still towers over New York Harbor. But it is harder today to convince others that Americans embrace — or practice — the ideals that Lady Liberty represents.

New public opinion polls show that this feeling of dread and despair and embarrassment is widespread. American exceptionalism and greatness are in doubt. Americans' sense of patriotism is at a two-decade low. A new poll from Politico and Morning Consult shows that 75 percent of American voters believe the country is on the wrong track — the worst such response since Donald Trump won the White House in 2016.
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Collectively these polls show how the American people want a return to normalcy and decency. Trump cannot soothe such pain: his political brand is cruelty, chaos, and destructive disruption.

America's mourning in the Age of Trump is following the steps outlined by the "stages of grief": Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance.

With the George Floyd protests and people's uprising — and what appears to be a large shift in public opinion against Donald Trump — the American people seem to have finally arrived at the stage of accepting that the country is imperiled by the president and his movement.

Too much time may have already been wasted, because hope peddlers and other naïve voices in the American commentariat kept telling the American people that Trump would "pivot" and become "presidential," that special counsel Robert Mueller "would save the country," that "the institutions were strong" and that Trump's evil was being "exaggerated" by his critics, or that Trump's voters were "good people," the American people en masse are now finally moving to action. They are doing this through mobilizing, organizing, engaging in direct corporeal politics and — we must hope — showing up in massive numbers to vote Trump out of office in November.
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Of course, matters are not that simple.

While the Democrats and other good Americans are moving from acceptance to action in their stages of grief for America, Donald Trump and his supporters are being made to confront that their movement, at least in its current form, may be dying.

Trump's true believers are now in the denial and anger stages of grief. How will they react after Election Day if Trump is conclusively defeated and then forced out of office?

Trump's followers are willing to kill and die for him. We have seen an increase in hate crimes, mass shootings and other right-wing terrorism and violence. Blood has already been spilt in the (literal) name of Donald Trump. On Election Day and the weeks and months after there will likely be much more violence by Trump's supporters against their "enemies."
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Jonathan Lockwood, an operative for right-wing extremist Republicans in Oregon, recently issued an ominous warning to the American people and the world. In an interview with the Independent he explains:

"I think we should fear a violent uprising… All it takes is for Trump to say one line or post one tweet," he said, adding that such an uprising could consist of occupying state capitols or even taking hostages to prevent state legislatures from certifying the election results.

"I think you could see takeovers of every [state] capitol, since the president seems to enjoy watching that from DC, and the country can descend into a chaos that we've never seen. People are gravely underestimating how pervasive these conspiracies and the delegitimizing of Democrats governing truly are."

Election Day 2020 is an existential moment when the life or death of America's multiracial democracy — and the nation's pre-eminent place in the world – will be decided.

Will the American people choose death and destruction with Donald Trump and all that he represents? Or will the American people instead embrace life, and saving the country's democracy, with Joe Biden?

This election is a literal struggle between creation and destruction, a moment when the American people will either rise to the occasion or fall further into shame, defeat and ignominy.


CHAUNCEY DEVEGA
 is a politics staff writer for Salon. His essays can also be found at Chaunceydevega.com. He also hosts a weekly podcast, The Chauncey DeVega Show. Chauncey can be followed on Twitter and Facebook.

Friday, January 15, 2021

 

Conspiracy theories and the ‘American Madness’ that gripped the Capitol

Author Tea Krulos talked to Religion News Service about how conspiracy theories have spread, how religion plays a role and how to talk to friends and family who believe them.

(RNS) — Tea Krulos was introduced to conspiracy theories on TV shows like “The X-Files,” popular in the 1990s.

It all seemed to him like fun and games, or aliens and shadowy government figures, until the 2012 shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut.


RELATED: Russell Moore, Justin Giboney warn that conspiracies must be confronted with truth


That’s when conspiracy theorists — convinced the shooting had been faked by the government to strip Americans of their Second Amendment rights — began harassing the grieving families of 26 murdered children and school staff. And it’s when Krulos realized how deep and dark conspiracies could become.

“It’s just so crazy to think about how much this has changed in the last 10 years or even in the last five years — or even in the last year. It’s just been progressively building more and more steam,” he said.

“American Madness: The Story of the Phantom Patriot and How Conspiracy Theories Hijacked American Consciousness” by Tea Krulos. Courtesy image

The Milwaukee-based freelance journalist — who previously has profiled subcultures in books about paranormal enthusiasts and doomsday preppers — most recently turned his pen to conspiracy theorists in his book “American Madness: The Story of the Phantom Patriot and How Conspiracy Theories Hijacked American Consciousness.”

In it, Krulos follows the story of Richard McCaslin, who spent time in prison after raiding California’s Bohemian Grove in 2002 as his costumed alter ego, the Phantom Patriot, hoping to expose the child sacrifices and satanic ceremonies he believed world leaders were conducting there. McCaslin later died by suicide.

Krulos sees echoes of McCaslin’s story in headlines about Pizzagate and the Nashville bomber, who reportedly believed a popular conspiracy theory that lizard people called Reptilians control the world. He also sees the culmination of many conspiracy theories in last week’s siege of the U.S. Capitol.

“This last year has just been one giant conspiracy theory about everything — the pandemic, the civil unrest, the election — and it all sort of culminated with this terrifying scene we saw on Jan. 6. That was an army of conspiracy theorists, pretty much,” he said.

Krulos talked to Religion News Service about how conspiracy theories have spread, how religion plays a role and how to talk to friends and family who believe them.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

How did you get interested in the Phantom Patriot and the wider world of conspiracy theories?

In 2010, I was working on my first book, “Heroes in the Night,” which was about the Real-Life Superhero subculture. Richard found my blog and was reading it, and then he sent me a message. It turned into this almost 10-year project of interviewing him and researching the conspiracy theories he was telling me about.

I think the book added another layer probably around 2015, which was when (Donald) Trump was campaigning for president. I noticed one of the first media appearances he did after he announced he was running for president was on “The Alex Jones Show” on Infowars. Alex Jones had been a big influence on Richard and his raid into the Bohemian Grove. So I was like, there’s a connection here: Richard, Alex Jones, Donald Trump.

And then, of course, the conspiracy craziness really began. I was like: This is not a unique story. It’s a story that’s repeating itself. People are getting influenced by these conspiracies and they’re being driven into extremism because of it.

Author Tea Krulos. Photo by Megan Berendt/Creative Commons

How did conspiracy theories, as you write, hijack American consciousness?

The key ingredients in conspiracy are a lot of fear and anger and division among people, and we’ve just had so much of that, especially in this era. So I think people are really primed to be influenced by this stuff. And the internet is such a huge part of the problem. I think it’s so easy to create misinformation that looks like it could be legit. I see people telling people they need to fact-check stuff, and I’m glad, but a lot of times people don’t want to fact-check it. They see something that confirms this bias they have, and they’re like, “That sounds right to me, and so it’s fact to me.”

It has such an incredible fast and far reach, and I think this year has been especially bad because you have so many people stuck at home on the internet, so they start going down these rabbit holes. At first it might be just kind of a curiosity, but it sucks them in.


RELATED: Heathens condemn storming of Capitol after Norse religious symbols appear amid mob


How did you see this culminate Wednesday?

The details are still coming out, and the details are just awful. I’m not at all surprised, but guess who was there in the crowd (at a rally outside) riling everyone up with a bullhorn? Alex Jones himself. Lots of QAnon influencers were at the event. In fact, one of the first guys who broke into the building had a Q T-shirt on. And then, of course, the media loves showing images of this guy who calls himself the “QAnon Shaman.”

But, you know, you can’t just paint it as fringe nuts, because there were elected officials who were part of that crowd.

Trump supporters gesture to U.S. Capitol Police in the hallway outside of the Senate chamber at the Capitol in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

Who are conspiracy theorists?

It seems like everyone has people in their lives who, to varying degrees, believe some of this stuff.

I don’t think it’s relegated to just, you know, blue-collar Trump supporters. There are liberals who spread and share conspiracy theories as well. I think it’s more prevalent now that it’s conservative stuff, just because of Trump being in office and these huge groups like QAnon, but there is a wide range of people who have conspiracy beliefs.

This phrase drives me crazy when conspiracy people use it, and it’s “do your own research.” I think it’s great to read. I think it’s great to be curious about things. But by doing your own research, they’re telling you that you should watch YouTube videos that might look kind of slick because they’re presented in documentary fashion. They have this bad case of what’s called the Dunning-Kruger effect, where they think because they’ve watched these YouTube videos and they read a self-published book they then are equitable in their knowledge to someone who is an actual doctor or someone that works at NASA.


RELATED: How QAnon uses satanic rhetoric to set up a narrative of ‘good vs. evil’ (COMMENTARY)


Religion pops up throughout your book. For one, McCaslin grew up evangelical and his comics were full of references to Scripture. What role does religion play in conspiracy theories and the people who believe in them?

A very strong one. Really QAnon, which is the biggest conspiracy problem today, is just the Satanic Panic all over again. It’s very, very much based on this idea that Trump is a man of God, and he’s engaged in a holy war with the sinister Satan-worshipping cabal of Democrats and other liberals, the media, Hollywood, stuff like that. They are the satanic ring that are pedophiles and cannibals and secretly causing everything awful happening in our country.

Richard McCaslin as his costumed alter ego, the Phantom Patriot, in an undated image. Courtesy photo

For Richard, I think it was very much religion with some comic book stuff mixed in, and both of those combined together made him really see this very black and white. There’s good guys, who are the superheroes, and there’s bad guys, who are satanists, and we’re in this very moral war where you have to pick a side, good or bad.

I found it very interesting, though, that he very suddenly switched to become a Jehovah’s Witness while he was in prison, and then when he got out of prison, he started following the teachings of this conspiracy theorist named David Icke, who really popularized the Reptilian alien theory. After he started following David, he decided to drop religion entirely, and he described himself as being a spiritual person, but no longer a Christian.

So I think that really shows you just how strong some of these conspiracy theorist teachings can be, where they’re so influential people will drop their religion. In some cases, they’ll separate themselves from their family and friends. It’s very cultlike. They’re willing to give up anything — in some cases now, even their lives — because they believe in this stuff.

Last week, Russell Moore and others called on faith leaders to combat the conspiracy theories they say contributed to the mob violence at the Capitol. What can clergy and other leaders do?

I think that’s a great idea. As leaders, they’re in a position where they can, in an empathetic way, talk to people about the dangers of these theories and maybe share some of these stories.

You know, there were four people who died at the Capitol (as well as a Capitol police officer). At first, I had a lot of anger toward this crowd, but one of the women who died was going through a hard time. She had been struggling with drug addiction, and she had talked about someday wanting to be a drug counselor herself. But she had also fallen down this QAnon rabbit hole. She was searching for something to maybe fill this void in her, and she stumbled across QAnon, when she could have filled that with something more positive


What about the rest of us? How can we talk to friends and family members who believe some of the prominent conspiracy theories out there?

It’s really difficult, and I don’t think I have all the answers on this, I’m sad to say. I think being kind and trying to listen to someone and engage in a real conversation with them is something people should try to do, rather than saying, “Oh, you’re so stupid,” or something like that. That’s not going to help at all. Trying to say, you know, “I understand why you would think this, but if you look at legitimate news sources, no one is reporting on this.”

You can try, is the best you can do. A lot of people are just going to completely shut you out, though. It’s sad. There are many, many stories of people who have lost spouses, parents, siblings, really good friends. Their relationships have been severed because a person won’t stop hounding the other person about conspiracy theories.