Erin O'Toole's plan to revive Northern Gateway could run up against risk-averse oilpatch

Geoffrey Morgan 

© Provided by Financial Post Members of ForestEthics demonstrate against Enbridge Inc.'s Northern Gateway pipeline in Vancouver, on Aug. 31, 2010.


CALGARY – Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole hopes to revive the long-cancelled, West Coast-bound Northern Gateway pipeline if elected prime minister, but oil companies and pipeline giants are less keen to take risks on major new pipelines since the project was cancelled five years ago.

Twice this week, O’Toole said that if elected he would revive the Northern Gateway pipeline project in an effort to ship Canadian oil and provide economic partnerships for Indigenous groups along the pipeline’s path.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau cancelled Calgary-based Enbridge Inc.’s Northern Gateway project in 2016 and implemented a ban on oil tankers along the northern stretch of British Columbia’s West Coast — effectively killing hopes of a building a replacement project.

Before its cancellation, Indigenous groups held a 33 per cent equity stake in the 525,000-barrels-per-day pipeline to the West Coast but the project was challenged by eight First Nations and four environmental groups at the Federal Court of Appeal, which overturned the project due to a lack of Aboriginal consultation.

People Who Take Photos With Their Phone Need To See ThisSEE MORESponsored by THE PHOTO STICK OMNI

Trudeau opted not to engage in further consultation at the time, in a move which terminated the project. Enbridge declined to comment on whether it would revive the Northern Gateway pipeline.

Now, five years later, the Conservative Party is looking to revive the project, driving a wedge between themselves and the Liberal Party, which promised this week to cap oilsands production

.

“I would like to see intergenerational transfer of wealth and opportunity after generations of trauma-transfer,” O’Toole said at a campaign stop on Monday of the Northern Gateway project’s potential to provide income to First Nations.

But the Conservative Party’s hopes of reviving the long-cancelled, West Coast-bound Northern Gateway pipeline could stall in Calgary’s newly risk-averse oilpatch, which has watched multiple proposed pipeline projects cancelled in recent years.

“We’ve created so much risk in the system that we can’t expect private companies to develop pipelines on their own. They need government backing of some kind,” said Richard Masson, chief commercial officer of Fractal Systems, a technology company involved in oilsands upgrading

.

© Carlos Osorio/Reuters Conservative leader Erin O’Toole at a campaign stop on Monday.

Masson noted that both the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion and the Keystone XL project required government backing before construction started on either project.

The federal government purchased the Trans Mountain pipeline and expansion project from Houston-based Kinder Morgan Inc. after the company signalled it would abandon the project given opposition from the B.C. government. Meanwhile, Alberta’s government backed the Keystone XL pipeline that was cancelled in Jan. 2021 on U.S. President Joe Biden’s first day in office.

“You would have to have federal leadership or a lot of federal backstopping to see Northern Gateway developed, just like Alberta had to step in on Keystone XL,” said Masson, who is also an executive fellow at the University of Calgary School of Public Policy.

If Northern Gateway were revived, the risk of its subsequent cancellation would likely need to be spread out between Enbridge and the oil companies interested in shipping crude on the line, said Vicki Knott, CEO and co-founder of Calgary-based Crux OCM, which provides control room software systems for industrial companies and pipelines.

“I would think that the structure of the financial commitments up front would be very different than what they used to be 10 years ago,” she said. “The risk is just too high with cancelled pipelines over and over again. It’s been a failed strategy for them.”

If the risks were spread out, there continues to be a need in the oilpatch for additional export pipelines.

Reports from IHS Markit show that Enbridge Inc.’s Line 3 pipeline and the federally owned Trans Mountain expansion could be full in the next six years, providing a market opportunity for another oil export pipeline project to be built out of Western Canada.

“I would assume Enbridge would still be game to try,” Knott said, adding, “Enbridge makes money on their rate base, so the more pipelines they have, the more money they make.”

With additional reporting from The Canadian Press

• Email: gmorgan@nationalpost.com | Twitter: geoffreymorgan

Opinion: With Keystone cancelled, we must resuscitate Northern Gateway

THEY NEVER GIVE UP 

THIS ROUTE GOES THROUGH CONTESTED INDIGENOUS LANDS

Special to National Post 4/3/2021

U.S. President Joe Biden’s Day 1 decision to cancel the Keystone XL (KXL) pipeline is still being heavily litigated in the American press — and is now in the courts, with 21 states’ attorneys general filing suit. Even Democratic governors and senators like Joe Manchin are writing letters asking for a reversal of the decision due to its negative economic, environmental and strategic consequences.

© Provided by National Post The Enbridge Edmonton Terminal.

For the Americans, the country’s recent loss of energy independence combined with the cancellation of KXL and the Texas blackouts highlighted the fragility of energy supply and, stunningly, has increased essential imports from Russia, and OPEC states that don’t share its democratic values.

For Canada, however, the KXL cancellation has generated a different debate. Being dependent on the whims of U.S. politics for our largest and most valuable export is a strategic vulnerability. It hinders our ability to make sovereign decisions, which hinders our ability to make progress on the economy and the environment. It is time to change that. We need to build Canadian-controlled access to global energy markets. This means building the necessary infrastructure immediately.

The Trans Mountain (TMX) pipeline showed Canada that it’s possible to forge a public-private partnership on essential energy infrastructure that protects the public interest in balancing the economy and the environment. That pipeline is an important first step in giving Canadian energy companies direct access to growing Asian markets. Building the shelved Northern Gateway pipeline is the critical next step. It would offer a number of key benefits to Canadians.

First, it would expand Canada’s global economic reach and create thousands of jobs at a critical time for the economy. Canada thrives on supplying essential resources globally, and our growing and more efficient energy sector is now strong enough to move away from being reliant on the U.S.

As the U.S. oil industry is in free fall, Alberta has emerged as the most competitive major oil producer in the free world, hitting its all-time record oil production last quarter. Canada has more reserves than Russia, China and the U.S. combined. With our leaner and cleaner production positioned to grow another 25 per cent over the next decade, by 2030, Canada is expected to account for one-quarter of the entire free world’s oil production.

National infrastructure is a prerequisite to meeting these targets and growing our economy. When the U.S. cancels a project like KXL due to its own domestic politics, Canada cannot be seen as helpless. We have to act decisively to replace the lost capacity. Northern Gateway will add back 65 per cent of the oil that would have flowed through the KXL pipeline by 2025. It will also pivot that supply away from the U.S. to high-demand Asian markets, buttressing our sovereign economic and strategic relevance across Asia.

Second, Canada leads global energy markets with the best environmental, social and governance practices in the world, including methane regulation, water use and local stakeholder engagement — all while leading the world in decarbonizing oil production.

Since the Kyoto Accord, Alberta has reduced emissions per barrel by over 40 per cent. The average Canadian barrel is now cleaner than a barrel from California. Our recent projects are even better, and the latest study from researchers at the University of Calgary, University of Toronto and Stanford University found that, since 2018, oilsands emissions have been reduced far faster than initial models indicated, with our pace of decarbonization increasing.

Canadian barrels are getting cleaner, and this comes with cost savings that make our production leaner. This cleaner and leaner production is a double threat to state dictatorships that control 80 per cent of global reserves and place far lower value on ethical production commitments.

Third, we need to increase our ability to export our leaner and cleaner energy to Asian markets. Asia has 3.4 billion people who live in energy poverty. They need real solutions right now. With the right infrastructure, Canada can meet the needs of the emerging Asian middle class with cleaner Canadian energy solutions. Asia is the most important growth market for energy in the world and will take all of Northern Gateway’s 525,000 barrels per day the moment it is completed.

By the end of the decade, if Northern Gateway were built, Canada could be exporting five million barrels per day — 3.6 million to the U.S. and 1.4 million to Pacific tidewater. This pivot from our over-dependency on the U.S. will direct 30 per cent of our supply to key Asian markets, buttressing our commercial relevance and, with it, our soft power and diplomatic influence, particularly with China and India.

Canada can do this if we follow the model set by TMX. Following the government’s acquisition of TMX, a federal court decided that there had been insufficient Indigenous consultations and inadequate studies on how to minimize the impact of coastal tankers on marine life.

This led the government to conduct best-in-class consultations and marine studies, which in turn let the pipeline proceed. Like ports, airports and other public infrastructure, TMX showed that the government can play an essential role in funding and building essential Canadian energy infrastructure.

When TMX is completed in 2022, the government can use the assembled expertise and the proceeds from its subsequent sale to help finance Northern Gateway, and add best practices on tankers and Indigenous ownership to the original plan. This is a perfect moment to demonstrate to the world that Canada has the will and the capacity to build our own sovereign infrastructure to access markets and defend our economic and strategic interests globally.

Canada can meet Asia’s growing need for energy while leading the world in decarbonizaton, ethical production and environmental regulation. Building Asia-facing infrastructure is key to economic growth, jobs and our strategic relevance in that part of the world. Canada can do more in the world, and the world needs more of what we have to offer. Following TMX with Northern Gateway is an opportunity worth pursuing.

National Post

David Knight Legg is chairman of the ESG Working Group of the Province of Alberta and CEO of Invest Alberta Corporation. Adam Waterous is founder and managing partner of Waterous Energy Fund, a deep value, special situations investor in established North American oil and gas assets.

Carson Jerema: Keystone XL failure a major blow to Jason Kenney, but it's early days

HUBRIS THY NAME IS KINDER MORGAN 

Why the BC Government Rejected Trans Mountain Pipeline

 in Favour of a Pipeline to Prince Rupert 

"Kinder Morgan is failing British Columbia's test for proceeding with a proposed pipeline expansion, so far unable to prove it will meet key safety requirements or serve the province's best interests, the environment minister says.Mary Polak said the Texas company has not provided enough evidence in its plans for the Trans Mountain pipeline to convince the government it can meet five pre-conditions for approval.The province said in its final written submission to the National Energy Board on Monday that it is unable to support the pipeline expansion from Alberta to the West Coast."    Trans Mountain pipeline project hasn't yetmet B.C.'s 5 conditions: minister

While the protests of the anti-pipeline advocates in the Lower Mainland of BC appear to have succeeded with the BC government's announcement today do not be so sure that this will not mean pipelines will not reach the pacific coast for Supertanker export to Asia. 

This is the pipeline to go from Bruderheim, Alberta, a small town south of Edmonton, to Burnaby BC it is NOT the controversial Northern Gateway Pipeline which is also proposed to go to the Southern Coastal waters of the province, ending up with a deep water port in Kitimat, in the Hecate Strait.

While this pipeline will end up in Burnaby, home of the Left Coast revolutionary hot bed of Simon Fraser University , it is merely an expansion of an existing pipeline, going to an existing refinery. A refinery that is still functioning though it was built in 1938 a year before World War 2.0 the refinery is 80 years old now. It is what they call in business a gravy train, it has already been paid for years ago, even any upgrades have paid themselves off so any money made is pure profit.

Two pipelines were proposed to travel to the Vancouver -Kitimat coastal area, with the idea of building deep water ports in some of the roughest most dangerous water anywhere on the Pacific coast. It appears with this decision and the Federal governments conditions on the Northern Gateway, that pipelines going to Kitimat or Burnaby are now not going anywhere.

So where will a pipeline be built to get Alberta bitumen to market? 

More than likely right here.........

There’s a dumb, dumb, really dumb idea that just won’t go away—that Enbridge could solve all its problems if only, if only, it would send the Northern Gateway Pipeline to Prince Rupert.Enbridge long ago rejected the idea. Before Enbridge updated its website to make  Gateway Facts, to make it slick and more attractive, the old website had an FAQ where Enbridge explained why it wasn’t going to Prince Rupert.

TransCanada was selected by Progress Energy Canada Ltd. to design, build, own and operate an approximately 900-kilometre natural gas pipeline (approximately 780 km terrestrial and 120 km marine) running from Hudson’s Hope to Lelu Island near Prince Rupert. 

TransCanada provides update on Prince Rupert Gas Transmission projectAlthough the start date of the Prince Rupert Gas Transmission Project is largely out of TransCanada's hands, vice-president John Dunn told the Prince Rupert and District Chamber of Commerce the company will be ready to go should the time come."Pacific NorthWest LNG is working to receive their necessary regulatory approvals and it is up to our customer to look at the global and fiscal environment for LNG and make a positive final investment decision. we will be ready to commence construction as soon as that occurs," he said of the Lelu Island terminal that will receive gas from the line, noting construction also depends on regulatory approval from the B.C. Oil and Gas Commission for the pipeline.Dunn said the delay in a final investment decision by the project's lone customer does not mean TransCanada's work on the pipeline has come to a halt. With the company expecting to announce three prime contractors for the approximately 900 kilometre pipeline later this year, Dunn said there is a lot going on in the background."One of the things that the announcement in December mention is that both Pacific NorthWest LNG in terms of their terminal at Lelu Island and PRGT in terms of its pipeline are working very diligently with major constructors to drive the cost down. We are taking the opportunity with this pause in the decision to basically look at realigning the costs across the project, whether it be materials or whether it be suppliers," he said.

Not only is BC planning on building a LNG gas line along the Yellowhead they also plan on building deep sea ports for Tankers off the coast of Prince Rupert which could accommodate raw bitumen from Fort McMurray or upgraded petroleum distillates from Edmonton . The Yellowhead already has a major highway, railway and existing pipelines so the environmental damage in comparison to the southern routes is not as significant, the community disruption is less and the potential for long term jobs in this region make it an attractive proposition that should have been considered in the first place.

It also fits in with the provinces plan of expanding its hydro dam operations in the Northern Peace region that it share with Alberta.

  The third dam – "Site C" – was also proposed at the time for a site 83 km downriver of the Peace Canyon dam, or approximately 7 km southwest of Fort St. John. 

Currently the Site C dam proposal is facing protests as well. But if I were of a conspiracy frame of mind, I would say that with this rejection of Kinder Morgan and the delays over North Gateway, despite the protests against the Site C Dam the BC government could not have planned it better if they had adhered to central planning. 

Will the Northern Gateway be built further North, along Highway 16, the infamous Trail of Tears where hundreds of First Nations women and girls have disappeared. 

It appears that if any pipeline is going to come from Alberta to the BC coast it may be along  the Trail Tears giving more poignancy to the appropriateness of that name. 

January 11, 2016

Tariffs could force ‘rebalancing away’ from U.S. for oil exports: Cenovus

By The Canadian Press

February 20, 2025


Cenovus Energy logos are on display at the Global Energy Show in Calgary, Alta

 THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh

The threat of U.S. tariffs on Canadian energy won’t affect planned spending by Cenovus Energy Inc., but the company says such levies may prompt a “rebalancing away from the United States” when it comes to where it ships its oil.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to slap widespread tariffs on U.S. imports of Canadian goods is on hold until March. Trump had previously signed an executive order that would impose a 10 per cent tax on Canadian energy products, along with 25 per cent tariffs on all other goods.

Speaking on Cenovus’s fourth-quarter earnings call on Thursday, president and CEO Jon McKenzie said the tariffs could affect “so many of the variables that impact our cash flow,” including oil prices.

“But there’s also knock-on impacts on the price of condensate, the price of natural gas, which are all inputs to our business,” McKenzie told analysts.

He added U.S. refining margins and foreign exchange rates could also take a hit if the tariff threat comes to pass.

“So when you look at the spectrum of all the things that impact our cash flow, it’s really not clear to us who’s going to pay which portion of the tariff, as well as what the overall impact would be to the company,” he said.


“If we are in a world, unfortunately, in March where tariffs do come, we will watch those price signals and react accordingly.”

That could include a pivot when it comes to where oil products transported along the Trans Mountain pipeline are exported, said Geoff Murray, executive vice-president of commercial for Cenovus.

“I think we would see ... a rebalancing away from the United States and the balance to head globally,” he said.

There has generally been a 50/50 split between California and Asia for deliveries of oil transported along the pipeline, said Murray.

“Without tariffs, that continues unabated. Should tariffs show up, that would obviously look to an economic reason for rebalancing,” he said.

“We expect that would obviously drive as much volume as possible through Trans Mountain, perhaps beyond the contracted capacity, provided that volume can find a home out the dock, and then it would preferentially head globally, rather than to California.”

Asked if the tariffs would affect Cenovus’s spending plans for 2025, McKenzie said the company has already limited its capital spending to “fairly modest levels” and is in the process of completing a few major projects.

“I don’t think there’s anything on the tariff side that would change any of our operating plans this year or in the near future,” he said.

McKenzie highlighted milestones associated with a few of its projects in the fourth quarter, including the mechanical completion of the Narrows Lake pipeline.

The 17-kilometre pipeline connecting its Narrows Lake oilsands reservoir to its Christina Lake main processing facility is expected to result in up to 30,000 barrels per day of additional production from the site, starting in mid-2025.


Mechanical work was also completed on the concrete gravity structure and topsides for the West White Rose project off the coast of Newfoundland.

West White Rose, a multi-billion-dollar extension of the existing White Rose offshore oilfield, is now 88 per cent complete and on pace to produce its first oil in 2026, McKenzie said.

On Thursday, the Calgary-based company reported its fourth-quarter profit and revenue fell compared with a year ago as it saw lower oil and natural gas prices.

Cenovus said it earned $146 million or seven cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Dec. 31, down from $743 million or 32 cents per diluted share in the final three months of 2023.

Cenovus said its adjusted funds flow amounted to 87 cents per diluted share in its latest quarter, down from $1.08 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue totalled $12.8 billion, down from $13.1 billion a year earlier.

Total upstream production for the quarter amounted to 816,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from 808,600 a year earlier. Downstream throughput amounted to 666,700 barrels per day, up from 579,100 in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Cenovus’s net debt at the end of 2024 was $4.6 billion, an increase of around $420 million from the previous quarter. It was also above the company’s target of $4 billion, a milestone it had previously reached in its second quarter.

McKenzie said the net debt increase reflected a weakened Canadian dollar, a temporary buildup in inventory of around 22,000 barrels per day, along with its share buyback program.

Sammy Hudes, The Canadian Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 20, 2025.

Canada Revives Old Oil Pipeline Ideas Amid U.S. Trade Spat  WAR

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Feb 19, 2025

The heavy dependence on the United States for Canadian oil exports has rekindled talk about resuscitating previously abandoned Alberta-to-coast pipeline projects that would give Canada access to more markets.

Over the past decade, only one pipeline made it through all the protests.

With tariffs and trade war back on the table for Canada’s economy, politicians and pipeline industry executives say that the narrative has shifted.


The U.S. tariff threat was a wake-up call for Canadian policymakers that the federal and provincial governments may have too hastily scrapped over the past decade Alberta-to-coast pipeline projects that could have diversified Canada’s oil and gas exports.

Everyone in Canada agrees that energy exports are the biggest leverage the country has in a trade war with its neighbor to the south.

Canada supplies around 60% of all U.S. oil imports. The oil province of Alberta alone supplies 56% of all U.S. oil imports—twice as much as Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq combined, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says.

But the heavy dependence on the United States for Canadian oil exports has rekindled talk about resuscitating previously abandoned Alberta-to-coast pipeline projects that would give Canada access to more markets.

Over the past decade, only one pipeline made it through all the protests. The Trans Mountain Expansion Project, after it was abandoned by Kinder Morgan and purchased by the federal government, tripled the capacity of the original pipeline to 890,000 bpd from 300,000 bpd to carry crude from Alberta’s oil sands to British Columbia.

For other projects, it’s all just talk for now. No company is officially proposing reviving any scrapped pipeline plan, but politicians outside of Alberta have started to realize that things could change as the rules of the game have changed.

There has been talk of the scrapped projects Energy East, which would have delivered oil from Alberta east to Ontario and Quebec shores, and of Northern Gateway, which would have run from north of Edmonton in Alberta to Kitimat on British Columbia’s North Coast.

These two projects were scrapped between 2016 and 2017. Back then, Canada’s federal government led by Justin Trudeau was rejecting oil and gas projects on environmental grounds. In addition, green activists’ opposition in provinces other than Alberta was killing off many attempts of Alberta-based oil producers and pipeline operators to have pipelines built to Canada’s shores—and not only those going straight south to the biggest refining centers in the U.S.

With tariffs and trade war back on the table for Canada’s economy, politicians and pipeline industry executives say that the narrative has shifted.

Earlier this month, Canada’s Industry Minister, François-Philippe Champagne, said that the country may need an Alberta-East Coast pipeline.

“Things have changed … you cannot be in the past,” Champagne told CTV in an interview on February 9.

“We cannot be dependent,” the minister said.

Canadians have increased their support for Alberta-to-coast pipelines. Public support to revive Energy East has jumped to 65% from 58% since 2019, with support in Quebec growing from 33% to 47%, a new poll from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute showed last week.

Northern Gateway (Alberta to B.C.) generates the support of a slight majority of Canadians, with one-quarter opposing it. Notably, Northern Gateway generates 55% support in British Columbia, with 32% opposition, the polling showed.

Among all Canadians, the majority, 63%, believe the economy would greatly benefit from the expansion of oil and gas pipeline capacity, according to the poll.

Compared to 18 months ago, Canadians are now also nearly twice as likely to emphasize economic growth as a key factor in deciding energy policy, with a corresponding decline in the importance of environmental concerns, a separate Angus Reid Institute poll found last week.

Canadian federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said earlier this month that Canada should consider a West-East pipeline as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs threats exposed a “vulnerability” in Canada’s energy infrastructure.

“There are some vulnerabilities that we did not actually believe existed. We should be reflecting on the vulnerabilities and deciding whether there are some things we should do,” Wilkinson said.

Pipeline giants, however, are less enthusiastic—they had to cancel projects due to too much regulatory burden, opposition at federal and provincial level, and environmental campaigns against pipelines.

Enbridge, which had its Northern Gateway proposed pipeline scrapped by the federal government in the 2010s, says that Canada needs real change in many aspects of its regulatory and approval processes.

“For us to be willing to seriously consider reinvesting in a project like that, whether it's east or west or just west, we need to see real change on numerous fronts,” Enbridge’s president and CEO Greg Ebel said on the Q4 earnings call this month.

“We would need to see real legislative change at the federal and provincial government level that specifically identifies major infrastructure projects like Northern Gateway as being in the national interest and therefore legally required,” Ebel said.

Permitting changes and federal and provincial support for more energy would also help the potential revival of pipeline plans, the executive added, noting that there have been positive comments from Canada’s policymakers since the U.S. tariff threats.

“They're saying the right things, but it's going to take real actions, laws, regulation to attract the capital in our view,” Ebel concluded.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for KINDER MORGAN

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for KXL PIPELINE

CANADA/KANATA

Water, Land, and Freedom

anarchistnews.org
Jan 19, 2025



From It's Going Down by Franklin Lopez

Original title: "Water, Land, and Freedom: My Journey Through a Decade of Pipeline Resistance on the Yintah and Beyond "

Franklin Lopez looks back on grassroots movement media and the creation of the documentary film, Yintah.

In the summer of 2011, I was exhausted—physically, mentally, creatively. I’d just finished hauling my feature film, END:CIV, across North America, and when I got back to Vancouver, I didn’t even have a place to sleep. So, I did what many DIY filmmakers do: I moved into my van.

That’s when I got an invitation that would change everything: the Unist’ot’en Clan asked me to bring my film to their territory. I piled a crew of anarchist friends into my old camper van, and we headed north to the Wet’suwet’en yintah (land). At the time, I had no clue I was stepping onto ground zero for a legendary fight against pipelines.

Turns out, the Wet’suwet’en were gearing up to resist thirteen proposed oil and gas pipelines crossing their unceded lands—projects like the Pacific Trails fracked-gas pipeline and Enbridge’s Northern Gateway tar sands line. “The Wet’suwet’en” in those days basically meant three people: Freda Huson, Toghestiy (now known as Chief Dini Ze Smogelgem), and Mel Bazil, all determined to protect the Wedzin Kwa River from potential pipeline ruptures. Once I tasted that ice-cold water straight from the river, I understood exactly why they were putting everything on the line.

We started off screening END:CIV in Witset (then Moricetown) and Smithers, the nearby settler town. At the time, a major focus of my film work was decolonization and climate change—so the timing couldn’t have been better. Like many informed people, I believed that if we didn’t halt oil and gas production, our planet would face catastrophic climate chaos. Coming from a family of Boricua anti-colonial fighters, I also found it easy to connect with my new friends on the territory. Then my crew and I headed deeper into the bush to attend an action camp at Unist’ot’en Camp. Back then, it was just one cabin built squarely on the proposed Pacific Trails pipeline route—a bold statement that no pipeline would pass without resistance. Little did we know the strategy sessions in that tiny cabin would spark a movement that would eventually shake Canada to its core.
Documenting Resistance: Oil Gateway and the Early Days

During that first visit, I started filming. I talked with Freda, Toghestiy, and Mel, capturing some of the earliest footage from Unist’ot’en Camp. Those interviews would form part of my short doc, Oil Gateway, which laid out the bigger picture: the tangle of pipelines threatening so-called British Columbia. At the time, subMedia, my anarchist media project, was basically just me, operating on the principle of “rapid release and share.” In other words, frontline struggles need their story told right now, not stashed away for some festival circuit months or years down the road.

After another grueling year of grassroots touring (read: sleeping on couches and eating from dumpsters) END:CIV around Australia, Aotearoa (New Zealand), and Europe, I promised to return to the yintah. By 2012, the Unist’ot’en Camp had grown from that one cabin into a bustling center for resistance. I was humbled to see around 150 people attend the action camp, with many mentioning they first learned about Unist’ot’en through Oil Gateway. It was clear that pipelines were choke points in the fossil fuel machine, and documenting the fight to stop them became my obsession. So I released a second short doc, The Action Camp, showing how Unist’ot’en was evolving into a force to be reckoned with.
Planting the Seeds of Yintah the Film

In 2012, I met filmmaker Sam Vinal of Mutual Aid Media, who was already passionate about the Unist’ot’en struggle. He wanted to make a full-length doc, but my style—rapid release and share —didn’t mesh with the slower festival and grant world. Sam, along with his then-partner, Alexandra Kotcheff, decided to immerse themselves in the yintah, filming extensively at Unist’ot’en. That laid the groundwork for what would become Yintah the film —and kicked off a decade-long collaboration between me and Sam.

Meanwhile, I moved to Montreal and started documenting the movement against oil and gas pipelines in eastern Canada. I teamed up with Amanda Lickers of Reclaim Turtle Island to produce a film exposing the pipeline threats in the region. While covering a Mi’kmaq anti-fracking blockade in Elsipigtog, New Brunswick, I witnessed the lengths the Canadian state would go to shield private extractive projects and trample Indigenous sovereignty. The violent RCMP raid gave me a glimpse of things to come on the yintah but also gave me hope, as hundreds of supporters descended on Elsipigtog to support the anti-fracking fight, and eventually the fracking company pulled out. During that time, I crossed paths with producer Andrea Schmidt from Al Jazeera—a coincidence that turned out to be huge later on.

In 2014, I was back at Unist’ot’en with Amanda Lickers, interviewing Freda and Toghestiy. During that trip, I also met Michael Toledano, a Vice News stringer reporting on the unfolding resistance. In the footage we captured, Freda made a statement that turned out to be prophetic: if the Canadian government attacked, allies would rise up to shut down Canada.
AJ+ and Going Viral

Soon afterward, Andrea Schmidt, now at AJ+, asked me to produce a short documentary on the Wet’suwet’en fight. I got approval from the camp and went back to film. That short documentary reached over a million viewers on Facebook, further helping thrust the Unist’ot’en Camp into the international spotlight. It included a powerful moment where Freda confronted an Enbridge executive, telling her they did not have consent to build their pipeline. Soon after, Enbridge’s Northern Gateway pipeline quietly died.

In 2015, I got a frantic message from Michael Toledano, The RCMP had rolled up on the Unist’ot’en bridge. One of my best friends was getting married that weekend, but he understood when I told him, “Dude, I have to go.” I scrambled to get a plane ticket and headed north. After seeing Michael’s footage, I urged the Unist’ot’en women to post it immediately. Rapid release and share! They agreed, and I edited the video on the spot—it blew up online. Overnight, the RCMP faced widespread backlash and backed off—for a while.

Later that year, I produced Holding Their Ground, a follow-up AJ+ documentary that netted nine million views on Facebook alone. This documentary featured a previously published viral clip of Chevron execs being turned away at the Unist’ot’en bridge, proving that front-line footage can be released in real time and still have a major impact later. This footage is also featured in our film INVASION as well as in Yintah.
Naval resistance in the west, shutting down pipelines in the east.

While on that trip out west, I got a call from an anarchist comrade, telling me that Tsimshians on the coast needed some visibility for their fight to stop a liquefied natural gas (LNG) port from being built on their waters. I jumped at the opportunity, and while visiting their camp, I captured powerful images of Tsimshian fishermen blocking Petronas workers from conducting survey work. The Tsimshians continued their fight, and by 2017 the LNG project was dead.

This was a very special time, and it felt like we were riding a wave. My partner was several months pregnant, and she and I organized a series of events in Montreal featuring Freda, Toghestiy, and Felipe Uncacia, an Indigenous leader from Colombia. We also took advantage of this trip to connect them to Kanienkeha’ka (Mohawk) communities in the region, including stops in Kanehsatà:ke, Kahnawake, and Akwesasne.

Then that December I filmed an action in Quebec: activists physically shut down an Enbridge pipeline by turning its valve and locking themselves to it. That video went viral, inspiring similar coordinated valve-turning actions in the U.S. that halted a huge chunk of oil flowing south from Canada.

The following year, my child was born. Watching this tiny, noisy being taking his first breaths made me reflect on the kind of world I was bringing him into. Stepping away from the struggle wasn’t an option—I had to stay in the ring and keep fighting against colonialism and capitalism for his future and ours.
2019: The RCMP Raids and a Movement Under Siege

By late 2018, the Gidim’ten Clan asserted their right to control access to their territory, meaning no Coastal GasLink (CGL) workers could pass. I teamed up with Sam Vinal and Michael Toledano to find more filmmakers to document this pivotal moment. At subMedia, now a collective of four, we churned out videos and agitation clips and video updates in solidarity with the Wet’suwet’en.

Led by Molly Wickham, Gidim’ten land defenders and anarchists set up a checkpoint to stop CGL vehicles. The RCMP responded with paramilitary-style force, armed with semi-automatic rifles, arresting Molly and several others. Fearing a similar outcome, the Unist’ot’en leadership took down their blockade. It was heartbreaking to watch, and Sam and Michael filmed every moment.

That spring, after 25 years of subMedia, I needed a break. I was burned out, broke, and bummed out. I took my family west, and we visited Gidimt’en and Unist’ot’en, where the sight of cops and pipeline workers on once-autonomous land really sank my spirits. That’s when I got the idea to launch Amplifier Films, a new project dedicated to uplifting anti-colonial and anti-capitalist movements across Turtle Island. Around then, Sam and Michael decided to merge their footage to finish the film that had been percolating for years. Freda asked me to edit, and the timing was perfect. That fall, we produced INVASION, a short doc about the daily reality at Unist’ot’en under growing RCMP and CGL pressure. I edited INVASION at Amplifier Films in Montreal, reusing some of the best bits from my AJ+ docs and subMedia clips, including a tense confrontation between Tilly (a St’át’imc woman) and Prime Minister Trudeau.

We released INVASION online right as Freda declared that CGL workers had to vacate the territory or risk being blocked. The doc became a key tool for organizers prepping for another big clash with the police. It also premiered in Hot Docs and other prestigious festivals, despite being freely available online for months. Which just goes to show: rapid release and sharing is what movements need most.

Sure enough, raids began once again, culminating in a full-on assault on Unist’ot’en in early 2020. The footage of the RCMP tearing down the gate and arresting Freda and other defenders was intense. But it sparked a massive wave of solidarity actions across Canada. Soon after, Mohawks in Tyendinaga blocked CN Rail lines, kicking off “Shutdown Canada” as railways, highways, and ports were barricaded by anarchists and allies in solidarity with Wet’suwet’en. It was a watershed moment for Indigenous-led resistance.
Making Yintah and Reaching the Breaking Point

Riding that wave of momentum, Sam and I took Yintah to the Big Sky Film Festival in Missoula, Montana. We pitched it to a live audience and secured our first round of funding—enough to produce materials for bigger grants. Then COVID hit, but we pressed on, cutting a trailer and rough scenes for potential funders. Despite having a decade’s worth of incredible footage, we struggled to find backing.

That’s when Montreal’s Eyesteelfilm came on board. Known for their award-winning docs, they loved our trailer and partnered with us to help secure funding and a CBC broadcast deal. We also asked two Wet’suwet’en women—Jen Wickham and Brenda Michel—to join the team, following the principle of “Narrative Sovereignty,” so that Wet’suwet’en voices could help shape every stage of the film.

By fall 2021, we’d raised over our budget goals for Yintah, and I was in the thick of editing. We had more than 1,000 hours of footage spanning a decade. Meanwhile, new images kept rolling in—Coyote Camp rose up with the help of anarchists. CGL equipment was commandeered and roads were destroyed and blocked. Haudenauseane allies from out east travelled to the yintah to join the fight. Then the RCMP launched another brutal raid, and Molly Wickham, Michael Toledano, and others were arrested. I spent a weekend trying to bail Michael out and make sure the footage didn’t vanish into the RCMP’s hands.

Around this time, following hit pieces in far-right media outlets, the Alberta government launched a petition asking Canadians to complain to the CBC about my involvement in Yintah because I identify as an anarchist. Despite it all, we hit our production milestones. In spring 2022, we returned to Wet’suwet’en territory for a consultation where members of Gidimt’en and Unist’ot’en reviewed the scenes. By June, I had a four-hour assembly edit and a story document. A ten-minute sequence I edited even won an award at Cannes, and we got invited to True/False’s rough-cut weekend to get feedback from industry pros.

But the unrelenting pressure eventually took its toll and our dedicated team was submerged in conflictual tensions. Panic attacks, brutal insomnia, and not being there for my family forced me to make one of the toughest calls of my career: after three years on Yintah, I quit.

Reflections, Redemption, and Moving Forward

I spent the next couple of years in a dark place, hit by slanderous rumors about my departure and uncertain about ever picking up a camera again. Then, in spring 2024 right as Yintah was premiering at True/False—I found myself freezing my 52 years old ass off at another blockade, camera rolling, helping an Indigenous community in so-called Quebec document their fight against destructive logging. And once again, the rapid share & release footage proved useful in defending the land.

That fall, I finally got to watch Yintah. I was thrilled to see so much of the editing I’d done remain in place, including the Shutdown Canada sequence (what my friends call “Yintah’s subMedia moment”) set to The Halluci Nation’s “Landback.” A lot of the overall structure still followed the story outline I’d left behind. Its reach blew my mind: Netflix picked it up for North America, Canadians can watch it free on YouTube (VPNs work too), and it even got pirated on YTS! For a movement doc, that’s about as mainstream as it gets.

The scope of this whole saga is still jaw-dropping. A small cabin at Unist’ot’en grew into a global symbol of Indigenous sovereignty, standing against a massive corporate onslaught. But the fight isn’t over—with Coastal GasLink completed, Land defenders continue to face state repression and Canada has approved more pipelines to cross Wet’suwet’en yintah, and other neighboring Indigenous territories.

As for me, I’m pouring my energy into Amplifier Films. One of our first projects is “A Red Road to the West Bank,” which tells the story of Oka Crisis vet Clifton Ariwakehte Nicholas during his trip to Palestine. Our goal is to explore the similarities between the plight of the Palestinians and that of Indigenous people in Turtle Island. Stay tuned for that.

Ultimately, this story is bigger than pipelines. It’s about land, future generations, and what it means to be free. The Wet’suwet’en have shown the world what unwavering resistance looks like—anarchists have demonstrated the power of solidarity, and it’s on all of us to keep that flame alive.
Postscript: Yintah Missing Credits

There are a number of people who helped with Yintah who were not listed in the credits, but whose free labor, particularly at the beginning when we had no cash, was priceless.

Cybergeek Antoine Beaupré for his creation of the custom software video-proxy-magic, which allowed me to crunch 80TB of video into a 5TB drive while keeping the folder structure intact. This helped us share all the footage with the other producers and assistant editors without having to spend thousands on large hard drive arrays.

Many thanks to the post-production interns from the University of the West of England Bristol who helped us organize footage during the early days: Charlotte Butler Blondel, Robert Henman, and George Willmott. Also, much gratitude to Stephen Presence of the Radical Film Network for connecting them with me. A shout-out as well to Marius Fernandes, who did a short stint as an assistant editor.

Ryan Hurst was the first editor for Yintah a few years before this incarnation. A few of his sequences made it in the final film and I rebuilt a lot of his edit projects when doing the footage review.

Big ups to Macdonald Stainsby—he is thanked in the credits, but it should be known that his work in connecting Freda, Toghestiy, and Mel to other troublemakers like me was invaluable. His anti–tar sands organizing and his critiques of environmental NGOs had a huge influence on my work.

Finally, I want to extend my deepest thanks to all the anarchists and anti-authoritarians who poured so much of themselves into this struggle. Your tireless solidarity—often at great personal risk—helped propel the fight farther than anyone imagined. We couldn’t have come this far without you.

Thank you for reading and for standing with the Wet’suwet’en and Indigenous communities everywhere defending their homelands.

Trigon gives green light to LPG export facility in Prince Rupert, B.C.

By The Canadian Press
June 11, 2025 

The bulk carrier Unicorn Ocean is seen loading coal at Ridley Terminals, part of the Prince Rupert port system, March 8, 2013. Ridley Terminals was renamed Trigon Pacific Terminals in April 2022. 

THE CANADIAN PRESS/Robin Rowland

PRINCE RUPERT — Trigon Pacific Terminals is giving a green light to a new $750-million liquefied petroleum gas export facility in Prince Rupert, B.C.

Trigon chief executive Rob Booker says the company now needs the federal government to expedite the shovel-ready project that he says is in the national interest.

Subject to all necessary legal and regulatory approvals, Trigon says the facility is expected to start exports in late 2029.

It will have annual capacity of 2.5 million tonnes per year.

The company says the final investment decision comes with support from the Lax Kw’alaams and Metlakatla First Nations.


Trigon already operates a multi-commodity bulk export terminal at the Port of Prince Rupert.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 11, 2025.

Alberta premier says province is looking to entice private-sector pipeline builder

By The Canadian Press
Updated: June 11, 2025 

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks at the Global Energy Show in Calgary on Wednesday, June 11, 2025. 

THE CANADIAN PRESS/Lauren Krugel

CALGARY — The Alberta government is working to entice a private-sector player to build a major crude pipeline to coastal waters, Premier Danielle Smith said Wednesday.

“We’re talking to all of the pipeline proponents; anyone who has had success in building a pipeline in Canada and has an interest in perhaps coming together as a consortium. Or, if one emerges as being a principal proponent, then we’ll be interested in talking to them, too,” Smith told reporters following a speech to the Global Energy Show.

“But we know that it’s a chicken and egg problem, that no one’s going to come forward with a project without some guarantee that it is going to be approved.”

Alberta could help the project along by committing barrels of physical bitumen received in lieu of cash royalties from oilsands producers, Smith said.

She has been enthusiastic about reviving a plan to ship oilsands crude to the northern B.C. coast for export to Asia, and the end point she sees making the most sense is Prince Rupert, B.C.


Enbridge Inc. had once planned to ship crude to another northern B.C. port, Kitimat, via its proposed Northern Gateway pipeline. That project was nixed in 2016 when the federal government banned tankers off the northern B.C. coast.

Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel has said it would take a major overhaul in federal regulations for his company to revisit such a proposal.

Smith said Prince Rupert might be a more viable choice than Kitimat, as it has a less treacherous route out to the open Pacific and many other commodities already move out of there.

Smith said no company will agree to build a pipeline to the northern B.C. coast as long as there is a tanker ban, and oilsands companies aren’t going to expand their production as long as there’s a federal emissions cap.

The premier urged conference attendees to keep up the pressure on Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government to do what needs to be done to get “nation-building” projects built.

“Anything less than success means failing to act for Canada. It means failing to stand up for democracy and peaceful global development,” she said.

“And most importantly, it means a loss of economic prosperity that future Canadian youth and families cannot count on to enhance their standard of living locally and to eliminate energy poverty globally.”

With U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs throwing the Canada-U.S. trade relationship into disarray, there have been growing calls for Canada to tap into other markets for its resources.

The only way meaningful amounts of Canadian oil can currently flow to customers outside the United States is via the federally owned Trans Mountain pipeline to the B.C. Lower Mainland, whose expansion started up about a year ago.

Carney recently met with provincial and territorial premiers to hear about what projects they’d like to see fast-tracked under new legislation, but has not said which have made the cut.

Smith said she’ll give the Liberals until the fall legislative session to determine whether Carney is serious about his pledge to make Canada an “energy superpower.”

Smith is also keen on accessing global markets via the East Coast or a pipeline to the Port of Churchill in northern Manitoba, which would give tanker access to Hudson Bay.

Smith heaped praise on Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew — a New Democrat of a much different political stripe than her United Conservative Party — for being open to that idea.

“He has been very vocal in saying that he wants Churchill to be a major export hub, including oil and gas, and he’s been unequivocal about that,” Smith said.

B.C. NDP Premier David Eby, on the other hand, has been skeptical about pursuing a Northern Gateway-like proposal while Trans Mountain, already in operation, is not running full at full capacity and could be further expanded to meet producers’ needs.

Smith did not appear deterred. In an onstage interview with former CBC anchor Peter Mansbridge at the conference, she said with a chuckle: “I’ll convince David Eby.”

---

Lauren Krugel, The Canadian Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 11, 2025.

Key to conflict: How battle for Marib is crucial to Yemen war

Issued on: 28/09/2021 - 

A grab from an AFPTV video shows a Yemeni pro-government fighter firing at positions of the Iran-backed Huthi rebels as they inch closer to the loyalists' last northern bastion, the strategic city of Marib, on September 27 - AFP

Dubai (AFP)

Yemen's Huthi rebels are drawing closer to the strategic city of Marib, whose seizure from the government could be a pivotal moment in the seven-year war.

The Iran-allied Huthis are in the midst of a major push to take the city, with hundreds from both sides killed in fierce fighting this month.

Here are some key facts about Marib and its strategic role:

- 'Military weight' -

Marib is the last northern bastion of the internationally recognised government, which was driven from the capital Sanaa in 2014 and is now based in the southern city of Aden.

If it falls into rebel hands, not only would the Huthis control all the north, but it could also facilitate the capture of other provinces.

Marib has "significant military weight" for the government, said Ahmed Nagi of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center.

"It carries the symbolic course of the conflict, with it being the area the Huthis have not been able to seize despite relentless efforts over the past six years, even before the intervention of the Saudi-led coalition" from 2015, he told AFP.

A picture taken on March 5 shows smoke billowing during clashes between forces loyal to Yemen's Saudi-backed government and Huthi rebel fighters in Yemen's northeastern province of Marib - AFP/File

Capturing Marib would also give the Huthis leverage in any negotiations with the government.

Yemeni Prime Minister Maeen Abdulmalek Saeed said this week that the ongoing battle "is not one for (nearby) Shabwa or Marib, but a battle for all Yemenis", according to the official Saba news agency.

"The fate of the battle will determine the future of Yemen."

- Energy wealth -

Marib province boasts oil and gas reserves, making it a major economic prize.

The Safer oil refinery, established in 1986, is one of two in Yemen with the capacity to produce 10,000 barrels per day, according to Yemen's ministry of oil and minerals.

Yemenis attend the mass funeral of Huthi rebel fighters killed in battles with Saudi-backed government troops in the Marib region, at the capital Sanaa's al-Saleh Mosque, on June 20 

Mohammed HUWAIS AFP/File

In a 2019 report, the ministry said production had reached 20,000 bpd.

Marib governor Sultan al-Arada says production has so far not been affected by the fighting and that Marib supplies gas to the entire country, even areas under rebel control.

Nagi said there was an "economic dimension" to the battle.

"The Huthis are aggressively fighting to control the resources of Marib," he said.

- North-south gateway -

Marib is about 120 kilometres (75 miles) east of the rebel-held capital Sanaa, connected via a major highway. It also lies near another highway that leads to the south of Saudi Arabia.

A tank is pictured at a position of Yemen's Saudi-backed government fighetrs near the frontline facing Iran-backed Huthi rebels in the province of Marib, on June 19 - AFP/File

Its location is significant not only because of its proximity to Sanaa but also because it sits at a crossroads between the southern and northern regions.

The city has several historical sites, and is surrounded by mountains and valleys. It is said to have been the capital of the ancient Saba kingdom, best known for the Queen of Sheba.

- Peace talks? -

Controlling Marib would significantly strengthen the rebels' hand in any peace talks, if they decide to return to the negotiating table.

Yemeni children are pictured at the Jaw al-Naseem camp for internally displaced people on the outskirts of the northern city of Marib, on February 18, in the Saudi-backed Yemeni government's last northern bastion

 Nabil ALAWZARI AFP/File

The last talks took place in Sweden in 2018, when the opposing sides agreed to a mass prisoner swap and to spare the city of Hodeida, where the port serves as the country's lifeline.

But despite agreeing to a ceasefire in Hodeida, violent clashes have since broken out between the rebels and pro-government troops around the city.

- Humanitarian risks -

Marib had between 20,000 and 30,000 inhabitants before the war.

A mother with her malnourished child at a treatment centre in Yemen's western province of Hodeida on September 25

 Khaled Ziad AFP/File

But its population has ballooned to hundreds of thousands, as Yemenis fled frontline cities for its "relative stability" and the chance to maintain a livelihood, according to Nagi.

The government says there are 139 camps in Marib province, hosting approximately 2.2 million people.

But these displaced civilians are now again caught in the line of fire.

The United Nations has warned that civilians are at grave risk due to the military escalation, which has forced many to flee towards new displacement sites as fighting nears.

- Array of forces -

Opposing the Huthis are pro-government forces who include local tribes, backed by a Saudi-led coalition and its airpower.

"The coalition stands by the national army by providing air and logistical support," Marib governor Sultan al-Arada said in March.

A grab from an AFPTV video shows Yemeni pro-government fighters on September 27 - AFP

"If it were not for air support, the situation could have been different."

The Huthis, meanwhile, consider Marib "one of the main frontlines of the aggressors' war on Yemen".

They claim it is "an arena for occupying foreign forces and a bowl swarming with dark forces and organisations from Al-Qaeda, Daesh (Islamic State) and the Muslim Brotherhood".

According to Nagi, fighters of the Muslim Brotherhood-influenced Al-Islah party were a strong presence on the battlefield.

"Al-Islah is present in most provinces in the country, but many of its members fled to Marib since it is a safer region and they fight within the ranks of the government army and the tribes," he said.

© 2021 AFP

Battle for 'future of Yemen' as rebels close on key city


Issued on: 28/09/2021 -

A grab from an AFPTV video shows a Yemeni pro-government fighter firing at positions of the Iran-backed Huthi rebels as they inch closer to the loyalists' last northern bastion, the strategic city of Marib, on September 27 - AFP

Dubai (AFP)

Yemen's Huthi rebels could be on the verge of changing the course of the war as they close in on a key northern city, experts say, warning millions of refugees are at risk.

Hundreds of fighters have died in fierce clashes this month after the Iran-backed insurgents renewed their campaign for Marib, the government's last bastion in the oil-rich northern region.

Seizing Marib would be a game-changer, completing the rebels' takeover of Yemen's north while giving them control of oil resources and the upper hand in any peace negotiations.

It also raises fears for the more than two million refugees living in camps in the region after fleeing other frontline cities during the long-running conflict.

"The battle of Marib will determine the future of Yemen," Abdulghani Al-Iryani, a senior researcher at the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, told AFP.

"Huthis control most of the governorate and are closing in on the city."

The severe threat to Marib comes just over seven years after the rebels overran the national capital Sanaa, just 120 kilometres (75 miles) to the east, in 2014.

A grab from an AFPTV video shows Yemeni pro-government fighters looking at positions of the Iran-backed Huthi rebels near the loyalists' last northern bastion, the strategic city of Marib, on September 27 - AFP

The takeover prompted the Saudi-led intervention to prop up the government the following year.

The grinding war has created what the United Nations calls the world's worst humanitarian crisis with millions of displaced people on the brink of famine.

"The refugees will probably pay the highest price for this destructive war," said Iryani.

- Air bombardments -

Marib sits at a crossroads between the southern and northern regions and is key to controlling Yemen's north. If it falls, the Huthis could be emboldened to push into the government-held south, analysts say.

A picture taken on February 8, 2018 shows Saudi soldiers standing guard as workers unload aid from a Saudi air force cargo plane at an airfield in Yemen's central province of Marib 

ABDULLAH AL-QADRY AFP/File

Ahmed Nagi, of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, said they have made significant advances after opening new fronts around Marib in recent weeks.

If they seize the city, "the Huthis will use Marib to advance towards the southern governorates bordering it", he told AFP.

The Huthis began a big push to seize Marib in February and, after a lull, they renewed their campaign this month, prompting intense air bombardments from coalition forces.

"Losing Marib to the Huthis could change the course of the war," said Elisabeth Kendall, researcher at the University of Oxford's Pembroke College.

"It would be another nail in the coffin of the government's claim to authority and would strengthen Huthi leverage in any projected peace talks."

According to Iryani, there still lies the possibility that Marib's tribes and parties, which fight on the government side, accept a Huthi deal to spare the city destruction.

Yemen AFP

"It's unlikely that they will fight their way into the city. More likely, they will strike a deal. Neither side wishes to engage in a bloody urban battle," he said.

"The offer stipulates the local government disavow the coalition, declare neutrality and share the governorate's resources with (the rebels in) Sanaa.

"In return, Huthis will leave the city alone and recognise its local government."

- 'Dire' fallout -

The city had between 20,000 and 30,000 inhabitants before the war, but its population has ballooned as Yemenis fled there from other parts of the country.

A Yemeni man next to burning tyres during protests calling for the removal of the Saudi-backed coalition government and deteriorating economic and living conditions, in Yemen's third city of Taez on September 27 

AHMAD AL-BASHA AFP

With about 139 refugee camps in the province, according to the government, hosting approximately 2.2 million people, the displaced civilians are caught in the line of fire once again.

"As they disperse, it will be harder for them to access humanitarian assistance and, with the spectre of famine looming over Yemen, the Marib battle will make it more imminent," said Iryani.

Kendall said "if the rebels seize Marib, the impact on the humanitarian situation will be dire", while Nagi predicted a "huge" disaster.

About 80 percent of the 30 million people in Yemen, long the Arabian Peninsula's poorest country, are dependent on aid.

While the UN and the US are pushing for an end to the war, the Huthis have demanded the reopening of Sanaa airport, closed under a Saudi blockade since 2016, before any ceasefire or negotiations.

Sixty-seven Yemeni rebels and pro-government troops have been killed in recent fighting for Marib, military sources said Monday - AFP

"Taking over Marib will not push the Huthis to accept the brokered peace or even to be committed to it if it is accepted," said Nagi.

"On the contrary, it encourages Huthis to move to the other southern parts to ensure its full control over all Yemen."

© 2021 AFP

Increasing Arctic freshwater is driven by climate change

by Kelsey Simpkins, University of Colorado at Boulder

Sea ice in the ocean in northern Baffin Bay in September 2008. Credit: Alex Jahn

New, first-of-its-kind research from CU Boulder shows that climate change is driving increasing amounts of freshwater in the Arctic Ocean. Within the next few decades, this will lead to increased freshwater moving into the North Atlantic Ocean, which could disrupt ocean currents and affect temperatures in northern Europe.


The paper, published July 27, 2020 in Geophysical Research Letters, examined the unexplained increase in Arctic freshwater over the past two decades and what these trends could mean for the future.

"We hear a lot about changes in the Arctic with respect to temperature, how ecosystems and animals are going to be affected," said Rory Laiho, co-author and PhD student in atmospheric and oceanic sciences. "But this particular study gives an added perspective on what's happening physically to the ocean itself, which then can have important implications for ocean circulation and climate."

Since the 1990s, the Arctic Ocean has seen a 10% increase in its freshwater. That's 2,400 cubic miles (10,000 cubic kilometers), the same amount it would take to cover the entire U.S. with 3 feet of water.

The salinity in the ocean isn't the same everywhere, and the Arctic Ocean's surface waters are already some of the freshest in the world due to large amounts of river runoff.

This freshwater is what makes sea ice possible: it keeps cold water at the surface, instead of allowing this denser liquid to sink below less dense, warm water. In this way, the Arctic Ocean is much different than other oceans. But as more freshwater exits the Arctic, this same stabilizing mechanism could disrupt the ocean currents in the North Atlantic that moderate winter temperatures in Europe.

Such disruptions have happened before, during the "great salinity anomalies" of the 1970s and 80s. But these were temporary events. If too much cold freshwater from the Arctic continuously flows into the North Atlantic, the ocean turnover could be disrupted more permanently.

Ironically, this would mitigate the impacts of global warming during winter in northern Europe for a while. But disrupting the ocean currents could have negative effects for climate long-term and on the North Atlantic's ecosystems.

Nares Strait, between Greenland and Canada, as seen from space. Credit: MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC

A signal in the noise


The main mission of the research for Alexandra Jahn, lead author of the new study and assistant professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, and her graduate student, Laiho, was to differentiate between natural variability cycles in Arctic freshwater amounts and climate change's impact. They examined the results from an ensemble of models run from 1920 to 2100.

"When we look at all the simulations together, we can see if they all do the same thing. If so, then that's due to a forced response," said Jahn. "If those changes are big enough so they could not occur without increasing greenhouse gases in the model simulations, that's what we call the emergence of a clear climate change signal. And here we see such clear climate change signals for the Arctic freshwater during the current decade."

Their results showed that Nares Strait, which runs between Greenland and Canada and is the most northern gateway between the Arctic and more southern oceans—will be the first place to see a freshwater export increase attributable to climate change in the next decade. Other straits farther south and east, including Davis and Fram straits, will be next to show this signal.

The researchers also ran the models through different emissions scenarios to see if these changes will be affected by humans' emissions choices in the next few decades. They looked at the "business as usual" (over 4 degrees Celsius warming by the end of the century) scenario and what would happen if humans limited warming to 2 degrees Celsius, the upper end of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) targets for this century.

They found that the change in freshwater in the Arctic Ocean and the amounts moving through the northern straits were unaffected since they will be subject to an increase in freshwater before the 2040s—and the decisions made globally in the next few decades will not influence them, as these climatic changes are already in motion. But in the second half of this century, the two scenarios diverged, and increases in freshwater amounts were seen in more places in the high-warming scenario than in the low-warming scenario.

"What this work is showing us is that we're probably already experiencing the first of these changes, we just can't tell from the direct observations yet," Jahn said.

All water from the Arctic Ocean eventually ends up in the North Atlantic. But timing is everything. Being able to predict the timing of the emergence of climate change signals will allow scientists to monitor upcoming changes in real time, and better understand how changes in the Arctic Ocean can impact climate worldwide.

"It fills a gap in our current understanding, and helps us ask new questions about what physically is happening in the Arctic," said Jahn.

More information: Alexandra Jahn et al. Forced Changes in the Arctic Freshwater Budget Emerge in the Early 21 st Century, Geophysical Research Letters (2020).

DOI: 10.1029/2020GL088854

Journal information: Geophysical Research Letters

Provided by University of Colorado at Boulder