Erin O'Toole's plan to revive Northern Gateway could run up against risk-averse oilpatch

Geoffrey Morgan 

© Provided by Financial Post Members of ForestEthics demonstrate against Enbridge Inc.'s Northern Gateway pipeline in Vancouver, on Aug. 31, 2010.


CALGARY – Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole hopes to revive the long-cancelled, West Coast-bound Northern Gateway pipeline if elected prime minister, but oil companies and pipeline giants are less keen to take risks on major new pipelines since the project was cancelled five years ago.

Twice this week, O’Toole said that if elected he would revive the Northern Gateway pipeline project in an effort to ship Canadian oil and provide economic partnerships for Indigenous groups along the pipeline’s path.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau cancelled Calgary-based Enbridge Inc.’s Northern Gateway project in 2016 and implemented a ban on oil tankers along the northern stretch of British Columbia’s West Coast — effectively killing hopes of a building a replacement project.

Before its cancellation, Indigenous groups held a 33 per cent equity stake in the 525,000-barrels-per-day pipeline to the West Coast but the project was challenged by eight First Nations and four environmental groups at the Federal Court of Appeal, which overturned the project due to a lack of Aboriginal consultation.

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Trudeau opted not to engage in further consultation at the time, in a move which terminated the project. Enbridge declined to comment on whether it would revive the Northern Gateway pipeline.

Now, five years later, the Conservative Party is looking to revive the project, driving a wedge between themselves and the Liberal Party, which promised this week to cap oilsands production

.

“I would like to see intergenerational transfer of wealth and opportunity after generations of trauma-transfer,” O’Toole said at a campaign stop on Monday of the Northern Gateway project’s potential to provide income to First Nations.

But the Conservative Party’s hopes of reviving the long-cancelled, West Coast-bound Northern Gateway pipeline could stall in Calgary’s newly risk-averse oilpatch, which has watched multiple proposed pipeline projects cancelled in recent years.

“We’ve created so much risk in the system that we can’t expect private companies to develop pipelines on their own. They need government backing of some kind,” said Richard Masson, chief commercial officer of Fractal Systems, a technology company involved in oilsands upgrading

.

© Carlos Osorio/Reuters Conservative leader Erin O’Toole at a campaign stop on Monday.

Masson noted that both the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion and the Keystone XL project required government backing before construction started on either project.

The federal government purchased the Trans Mountain pipeline and expansion project from Houston-based Kinder Morgan Inc. after the company signalled it would abandon the project given opposition from the B.C. government. Meanwhile, Alberta’s government backed the Keystone XL pipeline that was cancelled in Jan. 2021 on U.S. President Joe Biden’s first day in office.

“You would have to have federal leadership or a lot of federal backstopping to see Northern Gateway developed, just like Alberta had to step in on Keystone XL,” said Masson, who is also an executive fellow at the University of Calgary School of Public Policy.

If Northern Gateway were revived, the risk of its subsequent cancellation would likely need to be spread out between Enbridge and the oil companies interested in shipping crude on the line, said Vicki Knott, CEO and co-founder of Calgary-based Crux OCM, which provides control room software systems for industrial companies and pipelines.

“I would think that the structure of the financial commitments up front would be very different than what they used to be 10 years ago,” she said. “The risk is just too high with cancelled pipelines over and over again. It’s been a failed strategy for them.”

If the risks were spread out, there continues to be a need in the oilpatch for additional export pipelines.

Reports from IHS Markit show that Enbridge Inc.’s Line 3 pipeline and the federally owned Trans Mountain expansion could be full in the next six years, providing a market opportunity for another oil export pipeline project to be built out of Western Canada.

“I would assume Enbridge would still be game to try,” Knott said, adding, “Enbridge makes money on their rate base, so the more pipelines they have, the more money they make.”

With additional reporting from The Canadian Press

• Email: gmorgan@nationalpost.com | Twitter: geoffreymorgan

Opinion: With Keystone cancelled, we must resuscitate Northern Gateway

THEY NEVER GIVE UP 

THIS ROUTE GOES THROUGH CONTESTED INDIGENOUS LANDS

Special to National Post 4/3/2021

U.S. President Joe Biden’s Day 1 decision to cancel the Keystone XL (KXL) pipeline is still being heavily litigated in the American press — and is now in the courts, with 21 states’ attorneys general filing suit. Even Democratic governors and senators like Joe Manchin are writing letters asking for a reversal of the decision due to its negative economic, environmental and strategic consequences.

© Provided by National Post The Enbridge Edmonton Terminal.

For the Americans, the country’s recent loss of energy independence combined with the cancellation of KXL and the Texas blackouts highlighted the fragility of energy supply and, stunningly, has increased essential imports from Russia, and OPEC states that don’t share its democratic values.

For Canada, however, the KXL cancellation has generated a different debate. Being dependent on the whims of U.S. politics for our largest and most valuable export is a strategic vulnerability. It hinders our ability to make sovereign decisions, which hinders our ability to make progress on the economy and the environment. It is time to change that. We need to build Canadian-controlled access to global energy markets. This means building the necessary infrastructure immediately.

The Trans Mountain (TMX) pipeline showed Canada that it’s possible to forge a public-private partnership on essential energy infrastructure that protects the public interest in balancing the economy and the environment. That pipeline is an important first step in giving Canadian energy companies direct access to growing Asian markets. Building the shelved Northern Gateway pipeline is the critical next step. It would offer a number of key benefits to Canadians.

First, it would expand Canada’s global economic reach and create thousands of jobs at a critical time for the economy. Canada thrives on supplying essential resources globally, and our growing and more efficient energy sector is now strong enough to move away from being reliant on the U.S.

As the U.S. oil industry is in free fall, Alberta has emerged as the most competitive major oil producer in the free world, hitting its all-time record oil production last quarter. Canada has more reserves than Russia, China and the U.S. combined. With our leaner and cleaner production positioned to grow another 25 per cent over the next decade, by 2030, Canada is expected to account for one-quarter of the entire free world’s oil production.

National infrastructure is a prerequisite to meeting these targets and growing our economy. When the U.S. cancels a project like KXL due to its own domestic politics, Canada cannot be seen as helpless. We have to act decisively to replace the lost capacity. Northern Gateway will add back 65 per cent of the oil that would have flowed through the KXL pipeline by 2025. It will also pivot that supply away from the U.S. to high-demand Asian markets, buttressing our sovereign economic and strategic relevance across Asia.

Second, Canada leads global energy markets with the best environmental, social and governance practices in the world, including methane regulation, water use and local stakeholder engagement — all while leading the world in decarbonizing oil production.

Since the Kyoto Accord, Alberta has reduced emissions per barrel by over 40 per cent. The average Canadian barrel is now cleaner than a barrel from California. Our recent projects are even better, and the latest study from researchers at the University of Calgary, University of Toronto and Stanford University found that, since 2018, oilsands emissions have been reduced far faster than initial models indicated, with our pace of decarbonization increasing.

Canadian barrels are getting cleaner, and this comes with cost savings that make our production leaner. This cleaner and leaner production is a double threat to state dictatorships that control 80 per cent of global reserves and place far lower value on ethical production commitments.

Third, we need to increase our ability to export our leaner and cleaner energy to Asian markets. Asia has 3.4 billion people who live in energy poverty. They need real solutions right now. With the right infrastructure, Canada can meet the needs of the emerging Asian middle class with cleaner Canadian energy solutions. Asia is the most important growth market for energy in the world and will take all of Northern Gateway’s 525,000 barrels per day the moment it is completed.

By the end of the decade, if Northern Gateway were built, Canada could be exporting five million barrels per day — 3.6 million to the U.S. and 1.4 million to Pacific tidewater. This pivot from our over-dependency on the U.S. will direct 30 per cent of our supply to key Asian markets, buttressing our commercial relevance and, with it, our soft power and diplomatic influence, particularly with China and India.

Canada can do this if we follow the model set by TMX. Following the government’s acquisition of TMX, a federal court decided that there had been insufficient Indigenous consultations and inadequate studies on how to minimize the impact of coastal tankers on marine life.

This led the government to conduct best-in-class consultations and marine studies, which in turn let the pipeline proceed. Like ports, airports and other public infrastructure, TMX showed that the government can play an essential role in funding and building essential Canadian energy infrastructure.

When TMX is completed in 2022, the government can use the assembled expertise and the proceeds from its subsequent sale to help finance Northern Gateway, and add best practices on tankers and Indigenous ownership to the original plan. This is a perfect moment to demonstrate to the world that Canada has the will and the capacity to build our own sovereign infrastructure to access markets and defend our economic and strategic interests globally.

Canada can meet Asia’s growing need for energy while leading the world in decarbonizaton, ethical production and environmental regulation. Building Asia-facing infrastructure is key to economic growth, jobs and our strategic relevance in that part of the world. Canada can do more in the world, and the world needs more of what we have to offer. Following TMX with Northern Gateway is an opportunity worth pursuing.

National Post

David Knight Legg is chairman of the ESG Working Group of the Province of Alberta and CEO of Invest Alberta Corporation. Adam Waterous is founder and managing partner of Waterous Energy Fund, a deep value, special situations investor in established North American oil and gas assets.

Carson Jerema: Keystone XL failure a major blow to Jason Kenney, but it's early days

HUBRIS THY NAME IS KINDER MORGAN 

Why the BC Government Rejected Trans Mountain Pipeline

 in Favour of a Pipeline to Prince Rupert 

"Kinder Morgan is failing British Columbia's test for proceeding with a proposed pipeline expansion, so far unable to prove it will meet key safety requirements or serve the province's best interests, the environment minister says.Mary Polak said the Texas company has not provided enough evidence in its plans for the Trans Mountain pipeline to convince the government it can meet five pre-conditions for approval.The province said in its final written submission to the National Energy Board on Monday that it is unable to support the pipeline expansion from Alberta to the West Coast."    Trans Mountain pipeline project hasn't yetmet B.C.'s 5 conditions: minister

While the protests of the anti-pipeline advocates in the Lower Mainland of BC appear to have succeeded with the BC government's announcement today do not be so sure that this will not mean pipelines will not reach the pacific coast for Supertanker export to Asia. 

This is the pipeline to go from Bruderheim, Alberta, a small town south of Edmonton, to Burnaby BC it is NOT the controversial Northern Gateway Pipeline which is also proposed to go to the Southern Coastal waters of the province, ending up with a deep water port in Kitimat, in the Hecate Strait.

While this pipeline will end up in Burnaby, home of the Left Coast revolutionary hot bed of Simon Fraser University , it is merely an expansion of an existing pipeline, going to an existing refinery. A refinery that is still functioning though it was built in 1938 a year before World War 2.0 the refinery is 80 years old now. It is what they call in business a gravy train, it has already been paid for years ago, even any upgrades have paid themselves off so any money made is pure profit.

Two pipelines were proposed to travel to the Vancouver -Kitimat coastal area, with the idea of building deep water ports in some of the roughest most dangerous water anywhere on the Pacific coast. It appears with this decision and the Federal governments conditions on the Northern Gateway, that pipelines going to Kitimat or Burnaby are now not going anywhere.

So where will a pipeline be built to get Alberta bitumen to market? 

More than likely right here.........

There’s a dumb, dumb, really dumb idea that just won’t go away—that Enbridge could solve all its problems if only, if only, it would send the Northern Gateway Pipeline to Prince Rupert.Enbridge long ago rejected the idea. Before Enbridge updated its website to make  Gateway Facts, to make it slick and more attractive, the old website had an FAQ where Enbridge explained why it wasn’t going to Prince Rupert.

TransCanada was selected by Progress Energy Canada Ltd. to design, build, own and operate an approximately 900-kilometre natural gas pipeline (approximately 780 km terrestrial and 120 km marine) running from Hudson’s Hope to Lelu Island near Prince Rupert. 

TransCanada provides update on Prince Rupert Gas Transmission projectAlthough the start date of the Prince Rupert Gas Transmission Project is largely out of TransCanada's hands, vice-president John Dunn told the Prince Rupert and District Chamber of Commerce the company will be ready to go should the time come."Pacific NorthWest LNG is working to receive their necessary regulatory approvals and it is up to our customer to look at the global and fiscal environment for LNG and make a positive final investment decision. we will be ready to commence construction as soon as that occurs," he said of the Lelu Island terminal that will receive gas from the line, noting construction also depends on regulatory approval from the B.C. Oil and Gas Commission for the pipeline.Dunn said the delay in a final investment decision by the project's lone customer does not mean TransCanada's work on the pipeline has come to a halt. With the company expecting to announce three prime contractors for the approximately 900 kilometre pipeline later this year, Dunn said there is a lot going on in the background."One of the things that the announcement in December mention is that both Pacific NorthWest LNG in terms of their terminal at Lelu Island and PRGT in terms of its pipeline are working very diligently with major constructors to drive the cost down. We are taking the opportunity with this pause in the decision to basically look at realigning the costs across the project, whether it be materials or whether it be suppliers," he said.

Not only is BC planning on building a LNG gas line along the Yellowhead they also plan on building deep sea ports for Tankers off the coast of Prince Rupert which could accommodate raw bitumen from Fort McMurray or upgraded petroleum distillates from Edmonton . The Yellowhead already has a major highway, railway and existing pipelines so the environmental damage in comparison to the southern routes is not as significant, the community disruption is less and the potential for long term jobs in this region make it an attractive proposition that should have been considered in the first place.

It also fits in with the provinces plan of expanding its hydro dam operations in the Northern Peace region that it share with Alberta.

  The third dam – "Site C" – was also proposed at the time for a site 83 km downriver of the Peace Canyon dam, or approximately 7 km southwest of Fort St. John. 

Currently the Site C dam proposal is facing protests as well. But if I were of a conspiracy frame of mind, I would say that with this rejection of Kinder Morgan and the delays over North Gateway, despite the protests against the Site C Dam the BC government could not have planned it better if they had adhered to central planning. 

Will the Northern Gateway be built further North, along Highway 16, the infamous Trail of Tears where hundreds of First Nations women and girls have disappeared. 

It appears that if any pipeline is going to come from Alberta to the BC coast it may be along  the Trail Tears giving more poignancy to the appropriateness of that name. 

January 11, 2016

Key to conflict: How battle for Marib is crucial to Yemen war

Issued on: 28/09/2021 - 

A grab from an AFPTV video shows a Yemeni pro-government fighter firing at positions of the Iran-backed Huthi rebels as they inch closer to the loyalists' last northern bastion, the strategic city of Marib, on September 27 - AFP

Dubai (AFP)

Yemen's Huthi rebels are drawing closer to the strategic city of Marib, whose seizure from the government could be a pivotal moment in the seven-year war.

The Iran-allied Huthis are in the midst of a major push to take the city, with hundreds from both sides killed in fierce fighting this month.

Here are some key facts about Marib and its strategic role:

- 'Military weight' -

Marib is the last northern bastion of the internationally recognised government, which was driven from the capital Sanaa in 2014 and is now based in the southern city of Aden.

If it falls into rebel hands, not only would the Huthis control all the north, but it could also facilitate the capture of other provinces.

Marib has "significant military weight" for the government, said Ahmed Nagi of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center.

"It carries the symbolic course of the conflict, with it being the area the Huthis have not been able to seize despite relentless efforts over the past six years, even before the intervention of the Saudi-led coalition" from 2015, he told AFP.

A picture taken on March 5 shows smoke billowing during clashes between forces loyal to Yemen's Saudi-backed government and Huthi rebel fighters in Yemen's northeastern province of Marib - AFP/File

Capturing Marib would also give the Huthis leverage in any negotiations with the government.

Yemeni Prime Minister Maeen Abdulmalek Saeed said this week that the ongoing battle "is not one for (nearby) Shabwa or Marib, but a battle for all Yemenis", according to the official Saba news agency.

"The fate of the battle will determine the future of Yemen."

- Energy wealth -

Marib province boasts oil and gas reserves, making it a major economic prize.

The Safer oil refinery, established in 1986, is one of two in Yemen with the capacity to produce 10,000 barrels per day, according to Yemen's ministry of oil and minerals.

Yemenis attend the mass funeral of Huthi rebel fighters killed in battles with Saudi-backed government troops in the Marib region, at the capital Sanaa's al-Saleh Mosque, on June 20 

Mohammed HUWAIS AFP/File

In a 2019 report, the ministry said production had reached 20,000 bpd.

Marib governor Sultan al-Arada says production has so far not been affected by the fighting and that Marib supplies gas to the entire country, even areas under rebel control.

Nagi said there was an "economic dimension" to the battle.

"The Huthis are aggressively fighting to control the resources of Marib," he said.

- North-south gateway -

Marib is about 120 kilometres (75 miles) east of the rebel-held capital Sanaa, connected via a major highway. It also lies near another highway that leads to the south of Saudi Arabia.

A tank is pictured at a position of Yemen's Saudi-backed government fighetrs near the frontline facing Iran-backed Huthi rebels in the province of Marib, on June 19 - AFP/File

Its location is significant not only because of its proximity to Sanaa but also because it sits at a crossroads between the southern and northern regions.

The city has several historical sites, and is surrounded by mountains and valleys. It is said to have been the capital of the ancient Saba kingdom, best known for the Queen of Sheba.

- Peace talks? -

Controlling Marib would significantly strengthen the rebels' hand in any peace talks, if they decide to return to the negotiating table.

Yemeni children are pictured at the Jaw al-Naseem camp for internally displaced people on the outskirts of the northern city of Marib, on February 18, in the Saudi-backed Yemeni government's last northern bastion

 Nabil ALAWZARI AFP/File

The last talks took place in Sweden in 2018, when the opposing sides agreed to a mass prisoner swap and to spare the city of Hodeida, where the port serves as the country's lifeline.

But despite agreeing to a ceasefire in Hodeida, violent clashes have since broken out between the rebels and pro-government troops around the city.

- Humanitarian risks -

Marib had between 20,000 and 30,000 inhabitants before the war.

A mother with her malnourished child at a treatment centre in Yemen's western province of Hodeida on September 25

 Khaled Ziad AFP/File

But its population has ballooned to hundreds of thousands, as Yemenis fled frontline cities for its "relative stability" and the chance to maintain a livelihood, according to Nagi.

The government says there are 139 camps in Marib province, hosting approximately 2.2 million people.

But these displaced civilians are now again caught in the line of fire.

The United Nations has warned that civilians are at grave risk due to the military escalation, which has forced many to flee towards new displacement sites as fighting nears.

- Array of forces -

Opposing the Huthis are pro-government forces who include local tribes, backed by a Saudi-led coalition and its airpower.

"The coalition stands by the national army by providing air and logistical support," Marib governor Sultan al-Arada said in March.

A grab from an AFPTV video shows Yemeni pro-government fighters on September 27 - AFP

"If it were not for air support, the situation could have been different."

The Huthis, meanwhile, consider Marib "one of the main frontlines of the aggressors' war on Yemen".

They claim it is "an arena for occupying foreign forces and a bowl swarming with dark forces and organisations from Al-Qaeda, Daesh (Islamic State) and the Muslim Brotherhood".

According to Nagi, fighters of the Muslim Brotherhood-influenced Al-Islah party were a strong presence on the battlefield.

"Al-Islah is present in most provinces in the country, but many of its members fled to Marib since it is a safer region and they fight within the ranks of the government army and the tribes," he said.

© 2021 AFP

Battle for 'future of Yemen' as rebels close on key city


Issued on: 28/09/2021 -

A grab from an AFPTV video shows a Yemeni pro-government fighter firing at positions of the Iran-backed Huthi rebels as they inch closer to the loyalists' last northern bastion, the strategic city of Marib, on September 27 - AFP

Dubai (AFP)

Yemen's Huthi rebels could be on the verge of changing the course of the war as they close in on a key northern city, experts say, warning millions of refugees are at risk.

Hundreds of fighters have died in fierce clashes this month after the Iran-backed insurgents renewed their campaign for Marib, the government's last bastion in the oil-rich northern region.

Seizing Marib would be a game-changer, completing the rebels' takeover of Yemen's north while giving them control of oil resources and the upper hand in any peace negotiations.

It also raises fears for the more than two million refugees living in camps in the region after fleeing other frontline cities during the long-running conflict.

"The battle of Marib will determine the future of Yemen," Abdulghani Al-Iryani, a senior researcher at the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, told AFP.

"Huthis control most of the governorate and are closing in on the city."

The severe threat to Marib comes just over seven years after the rebels overran the national capital Sanaa, just 120 kilometres (75 miles) to the east, in 2014.

A grab from an AFPTV video shows Yemeni pro-government fighters looking at positions of the Iran-backed Huthi rebels near the loyalists' last northern bastion, the strategic city of Marib, on September 27 - AFP

The takeover prompted the Saudi-led intervention to prop up the government the following year.

The grinding war has created what the United Nations calls the world's worst humanitarian crisis with millions of displaced people on the brink of famine.

"The refugees will probably pay the highest price for this destructive war," said Iryani.

- Air bombardments -

Marib sits at a crossroads between the southern and northern regions and is key to controlling Yemen's north. If it falls, the Huthis could be emboldened to push into the government-held south, analysts say.

A picture taken on February 8, 2018 shows Saudi soldiers standing guard as workers unload aid from a Saudi air force cargo plane at an airfield in Yemen's central province of Marib 

ABDULLAH AL-QADRY AFP/File

Ahmed Nagi, of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, said they have made significant advances after opening new fronts around Marib in recent weeks.

If they seize the city, "the Huthis will use Marib to advance towards the southern governorates bordering it", he told AFP.

The Huthis began a big push to seize Marib in February and, after a lull, they renewed their campaign this month, prompting intense air bombardments from coalition forces.

"Losing Marib to the Huthis could change the course of the war," said Elisabeth Kendall, researcher at the University of Oxford's Pembroke College.

"It would be another nail in the coffin of the government's claim to authority and would strengthen Huthi leverage in any projected peace talks."

According to Iryani, there still lies the possibility that Marib's tribes and parties, which fight on the government side, accept a Huthi deal to spare the city destruction.

Yemen AFP

"It's unlikely that they will fight their way into the city. More likely, they will strike a deal. Neither side wishes to engage in a bloody urban battle," he said.

"The offer stipulates the local government disavow the coalition, declare neutrality and share the governorate's resources with (the rebels in) Sanaa.

"In return, Huthis will leave the city alone and recognise its local government."

- 'Dire' fallout -

The city had between 20,000 and 30,000 inhabitants before the war, but its population has ballooned as Yemenis fled there from other parts of the country.

A Yemeni man next to burning tyres during protests calling for the removal of the Saudi-backed coalition government and deteriorating economic and living conditions, in Yemen's third city of Taez on September 27 

AHMAD AL-BASHA AFP

With about 139 refugee camps in the province, according to the government, hosting approximately 2.2 million people, the displaced civilians are caught in the line of fire once again.

"As they disperse, it will be harder for them to access humanitarian assistance and, with the spectre of famine looming over Yemen, the Marib battle will make it more imminent," said Iryani.

Kendall said "if the rebels seize Marib, the impact on the humanitarian situation will be dire", while Nagi predicted a "huge" disaster.

About 80 percent of the 30 million people in Yemen, long the Arabian Peninsula's poorest country, are dependent on aid.

While the UN and the US are pushing for an end to the war, the Huthis have demanded the reopening of Sanaa airport, closed under a Saudi blockade since 2016, before any ceasefire or negotiations.

Sixty-seven Yemeni rebels and pro-government troops have been killed in recent fighting for Marib, military sources said Monday - AFP

"Taking over Marib will not push the Huthis to accept the brokered peace or even to be committed to it if it is accepted," said Nagi.

"On the contrary, it encourages Huthis to move to the other southern parts to ensure its full control over all Yemen."

© 2021 AFP

Increasing Arctic freshwater is driven by climate change

by Kelsey Simpkins, University of Colorado at Boulder

Sea ice in the ocean in northern Baffin Bay in September 2008. Credit: Alex Jahn

New, first-of-its-kind research from CU Boulder shows that climate change is driving increasing amounts of freshwater in the Arctic Ocean. Within the next few decades, this will lead to increased freshwater moving into the North Atlantic Ocean, which could disrupt ocean currents and affect temperatures in northern Europe.


The paper, published July 27, 2020 in Geophysical Research Letters, examined the unexplained increase in Arctic freshwater over the past two decades and what these trends could mean for the future.

"We hear a lot about changes in the Arctic with respect to temperature, how ecosystems and animals are going to be affected," said Rory Laiho, co-author and PhD student in atmospheric and oceanic sciences. "But this particular study gives an added perspective on what's happening physically to the ocean itself, which then can have important implications for ocean circulation and climate."

Since the 1990s, the Arctic Ocean has seen a 10% increase in its freshwater. That's 2,400 cubic miles (10,000 cubic kilometers), the same amount it would take to cover the entire U.S. with 3 feet of water.

The salinity in the ocean isn't the same everywhere, and the Arctic Ocean's surface waters are already some of the freshest in the world due to large amounts of river runoff.

This freshwater is what makes sea ice possible: it keeps cold water at the surface, instead of allowing this denser liquid to sink below less dense, warm water. In this way, the Arctic Ocean is much different than other oceans. But as more freshwater exits the Arctic, this same stabilizing mechanism could disrupt the ocean currents in the North Atlantic that moderate winter temperatures in Europe.

Such disruptions have happened before, during the "great salinity anomalies" of the 1970s and 80s. But these were temporary events. If too much cold freshwater from the Arctic continuously flows into the North Atlantic, the ocean turnover could be disrupted more permanently.

Ironically, this would mitigate the impacts of global warming during winter in northern Europe for a while. But disrupting the ocean currents could have negative effects for climate long-term and on the North Atlantic's ecosystems.

Nares Strait, between Greenland and Canada, as seen from space. Credit: MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC

A signal in the noise


The main mission of the research for Alexandra Jahn, lead author of the new study and assistant professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, and her graduate student, Laiho, was to differentiate between natural variability cycles in Arctic freshwater amounts and climate change's impact. They examined the results from an ensemble of models run from 1920 to 2100.

"When we look at all the simulations together, we can see if they all do the same thing. If so, then that's due to a forced response," said Jahn. "If those changes are big enough so they could not occur without increasing greenhouse gases in the model simulations, that's what we call the emergence of a clear climate change signal. And here we see such clear climate change signals for the Arctic freshwater during the current decade."

Their results showed that Nares Strait, which runs between Greenland and Canada and is the most northern gateway between the Arctic and more southern oceans—will be the first place to see a freshwater export increase attributable to climate change in the next decade. Other straits farther south and east, including Davis and Fram straits, will be next to show this signal.

The researchers also ran the models through different emissions scenarios to see if these changes will be affected by humans' emissions choices in the next few decades. They looked at the "business as usual" (over 4 degrees Celsius warming by the end of the century) scenario and what would happen if humans limited warming to 2 degrees Celsius, the upper end of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) targets for this century.

They found that the change in freshwater in the Arctic Ocean and the amounts moving through the northern straits were unaffected since they will be subject to an increase in freshwater before the 2040s—and the decisions made globally in the next few decades will not influence them, as these climatic changes are already in motion. But in the second half of this century, the two scenarios diverged, and increases in freshwater amounts were seen in more places in the high-warming scenario than in the low-warming scenario.

"What this work is showing us is that we're probably already experiencing the first of these changes, we just can't tell from the direct observations yet," Jahn said.

All water from the Arctic Ocean eventually ends up in the North Atlantic. But timing is everything. Being able to predict the timing of the emergence of climate change signals will allow scientists to monitor upcoming changes in real time, and better understand how changes in the Arctic Ocean can impact climate worldwide.

"It fills a gap in our current understanding, and helps us ask new questions about what physically is happening in the Arctic," said Jahn.

More information: Alexandra Jahn et al. Forced Changes in the Arctic Freshwater Budget Emerge in the Early 21 st Century, Geophysical Research Letters (2020).

DOI: 10.1029/2020GL088854

Journal information: Geophysical Research Letters

Provided by University of Colorado at Boulder

After Years of Angst, Canada’s Oil Pipeline Problem May Be Over

Kevin Orland and Robert Tuttle Bloomberg June 23, 2020



(Bloomberg) -- The shortage of pipeline space that has hamstrung Canada’s oil producers for years may finally be over -- just not in the way they had hoped.

The pandemic-induced oil crash prompted Canadian companies to cut about 1 million barrels of daily crude output, freeing up space on the country’s previously congested pipelines. With that production likely slow to return and as many as three new conduits slated to be built in the next three years, the industry may have years of cheap, plentiful shipping capacity ahead.

That’s a significant turnabout for a country where, until Covid-19 hit, the lack of pipelines out of Western Canada was a central political and economic issue, often pitting the oil-rich province of Alberta against the government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

But the pipeline relief came only because oil producers had to adapt to a dramatic drop in demand and low prices that are causing mounting financial losses. Some had spent heavily to ramp up their ability to ship crude by rail and now find themselves stuck with idled tanker cars and loading terminals.

The industry “achieved the dream of going long pipeline in Western Canada but for all the wrong reasons,” said Kevin Birn, IHS Markit’s director of North American crude oil markets.

Enbridge Inc., which typically has to ration space on its Mainline pipeline system, had spare capacity in recent months, a rare occurrence. Shipments of crude by train, the main alternative to pipelines, have plunged as well. April crude-by-rail exports fell 55% to about 156,000 barrels a day, according to the Canada Energy Regulator. That trend appears to have continued into May, with about 49,000 barrels a day moving by rail, according to Genscape.

Until recently, the problem had been just the opposite. The lack of enough shipping capacity forced producers to sell their crude at wide discounts to benchmark U.S. prices, hurting Alberta’s economy. The industry accounts for about a 10th of Canada’s gross domestic product and a fifth of its exports.

Trudeau’s approach to the issue has varied. On one hand, he shelled out C$4.5 billion ($3.3 billion) to buy the Trans Mountain pipeline and save a key expansion from being scrapped. On the other, he rejected Enbridge’s proposed Northern Gateway project 

THIS WAS A SAFER BETTER ECOLOGICAL ROUTE THAN KITIMAT, THOUGH IT TOO IS OPPOSED BY FIRST NATIONS, ENVIRONMENTALISTS, IT FITS WITHIN THE PLANS FOR A DEEP WATER PORT OFF PRINCE RUPERT THE PIPELINE WOULD BE BUILT ALONG THE EXISTING YELLOWHEAD HWY https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/search?q=NORTHERN+GATEWAY

implemented regulations that industry groups have said will make it impossible to build new pipelines. Those moves contributed to Trudeau’s Liberal party losing all of its parliament seats from Alberta and Saskatchewan in an election last year.

But through all the turmoil, and many delays, three major pipeline projects are expected to enter service by the end of 2023: TC Energy Corp.’s Keystone XL, Enbridge’s expansion of its Line 3, and the Canadian government’s expansion of the Trans Mountain line. The projects would add a combined 1.79 million barrels of daily shipping capacity out of Alberta, an almost 50% increase.

For now, with producers reducing output because of the pandemic, the current pipeline system should be able to handle flows, Birn said. Oil-sands companies will be slower to bring production back online until they have more certainty that a recovery is underway, bridging the gap until the new lines are running, he said.

The need for the pipelines in the immediate term has been deferred or delayed because of the dramatic reduction in demand,” he said. “Covid-19 may have bought the industry some time.”

To be sure, those start dates are by no means certain. Line 3 already was stalled by a year because of permitting delays, and the project continues to face opposition in Minnesota. Keystone XL, after more than a decade since it was first proposed, is still facing legal challenges in Montana, and Trans Mountain also continues to face resistance from some indigenous communities in British Columbia.

In the meantime, some companies are stuck with investments in rail that they won’t need.

Cenovus Energy Inc., which suspended crude-by-rail shipments in March, had signed three-year deals in 2018 to transport 100,000 barrels of oil a day, and it also owns the Bruderheim rail-loading facility near Edmonton. Executives said on their first-quarter conference call that the idled crude-by-rail program costs them about C$18 million a year, including the expense of storing unused rail cars.


Rail continues to be a part of the company’s “portfolio approach” to transporting its crude over the long-term, said Sonja Franklin, a Cenovus spokeswoman. The majority of the costs associated with the rail program are variable, she said.

Exxon Mobil Corp.’s Canadian unit, Imperial Oil Ltd., is in a joint venture on a rail terminal next to its Strathcona refinery in Edmonton. The roughly C$170 million facility can load trains with 100 to 120 cars, for about 210,000 barrels of daily shipping capacity. Imperial executives said on the company’s first-quarter earnings call in May that rail volumes for April had plummeted to 10,000 barrels a day, less than 5% of the facility’s capacity.

Imperial declined to comment.

With crude demand and oil-sands production likely to remain reduced until new pipelines come online, those rail facilities could stay underused for some time, barring a major technological advancement that makes oil-sands crude cheaper to produce, said Fernando Valle, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

“We could be pretty much set for most of this decade unless there’s a breakthrough,” Valle said.

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World’s first CO2 storage service soon ready in Norway


By AFP
September 25, 2024


Wildfires in Canada have generated record CO2 emissions

 - Copyright Nova Scotia Government/AFP/File Handout

Pierre-Henry DESHAYES

Norway is set to inaugurate Thursday the gateway to a massive undersea vault for carbon dioxide, a crucial step before opening what its operator calls the first commercial service offering CO2 transport and storage.

The Northern Lights project plans to take CO2 emissions captured at factory smokestacks in Europe and inject them into geological reservoirs under the seabed.

The aim is to prevent the emissions from being released into the atmosphere, and thereby help halt climate change.

On the island of Oygarden, a key milestone will be marked on Thursday with the inauguration of a terminal built on the shores of the North Sea, its shiny storage tanks rising up against the sky.

It is here that the liquified CO2 will be transported by boat, then injected through a long pipeline into the seabed, at a depth of around 2.6 kilometres (1.6 miles), for permanent storage.

The facility, a joint venture grouping oil giants Equinor of Norway, the Anglo-Dutch Shell and TotalEnergies of France, is expected to bury its first CO2 deliveries in 2025.

It will have an initial capacity of 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year, before being ramped up to five million tonnes in a second phase if there is enough demand.

“Our first purpose is to demonstrate that the carbon capture and storage (CCS) chain is feasible,” Northern Lights managing director Tim Heijn told AFP.

“It can make a real impact on the CO2 balance and help achieve climate targets,” he said.



– Prohibitive cost –



CCS technology is complex and costly but has been advocated by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), especially for reducing the CO2 footprint of industries like cement and steel, which are difficult to decarbonise.

The world’s overall capture capacity is currently just 50.5 million tonnes, according to the IEA, or barely 0.1 percent of the world’s annual total emissions.

In order to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius since the pre-industrial era, CCS would have to prevent at least one billion tonnes of CO2 emissions per year by 2030, the IEA says.

The technology is still in the early stages, and has been slow to develop because of prohibitive costs — compared to the price companies have to pay for CO2 emission quotas, for example.

It therefore depends heavily on subsidies.

“Public support was and will be crucial to help such innovative projects to advance, especially as CCS costs are still higher than the costs of CO2 emissions in Europe,” said Daniela Peta, public affairs director at the Global CCS Institute.

The Norwegian government has financed 80 percent of the cost of Northern Lights, which has been kept confidential.

The Scandinavian country is Western Europe’s largest oil and gas producer.

The North Sea, with its depleted oil and gas fields and its vast network of pipelines, is an ideal region to bury unwanted greenhouse gases.

– Greenwashing? –

Northern Lights is part of an ambitious 30-billion-kroner ($2.9 billion) scheme dubbed “Longship” — after the Viking ships — of which the state has provided 20 billion kroner.

The plan initially included the creation of two CO2 capture sites in Norway.

While the Heidelberg Materials cement factory in Brevik is expected to begin shipping its captured emissions to the site next year, snowballing costs have forced the waste-to-energy plant Hafslund Celsio in Oslo to review its plans.

In addition, Northern Lights has also secured cross-border deals with Norwegian fertiliser manufacturer Yara and energy group Orsted to bury CO2 from an ammonia plant in the Netherlands and two biomass power stations in Denmark.

Some environmentalists worry the technology could provide an excuse to prolong the use of fossil fuels and divert funds needed for renewable energies.

They have also raised concerns about the risk of leaks.

“Northern Lights is ‘greenwashing’,” said the head of Greenpeace Norway, Frode Pleym, noting that the project was run by oil companies.

“Their goal is to be able to continue pumping oil and gas. CCS, the electrification of platforms and all of these kinds of measures are used by the oil industry in a cynical way to avoid doing anything about their enormous emissions,” he said.

WHO KILLED HVALDIMIR THE WHITE WHALE?!

‘Russian spy’ whale Hvaldimir found dead in Norway

The white beluga was found off the southwest coast at Risavika Bay by a father and son who were out fishing.

Hvaldimir was first spotted off the coast of northern Norway in 2019 [Jorgen Ree Wiig/Sea Surveillance Service/Handout/NTB Scanpix via Reuters]

Published On 2 Sep 2024

A beluga whale nicknamed Hvaldimir, after his strange harness prompted suspicions he was a Russian spy, has been found dead in the southwest of Norway.

The whale’s carcass was discovered floating off Risavika Bay in southern Norway on Saturday by a father and son who were out fishing, Norwegian public broadcaster NRK reported.

“Hvaldimir was not just a beluga whale; he was a beacon of hope, a symbol of connection, and a reminder of the deep bond between humans and the natural world,” Marine Mind, a nonprofit organisation that had been tracking his movements, said on social media.

Hvaldimir, a combination of the Norwegian word for whale, “hval”, and the first name of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, was first spotted off Norway’s far northern coast in 2019.

His man-made harness, with what appeared to be a mount for a camera stamped with the words “Equipment St Petersburg”, fuelled speculation that he was a “spy whale“.

Norwegian officials said Hvaldimir may have escaped an enclosure and been trained by the Russian navy as he appeared to be accustomed to humans.

Moscow has never responded to the speculation.

Hvaldimir was thought to be between 14 and 15 years old [File: Jorgen Ree Wiig/Sea Surveillance Service/NTB Scanpix via Reuters]

After Hvaldimir was found dead, his carcass was lifted out of the water with a crane and taken to a nearby harbour for further examination.

“We’ve managed to retrieve his remains and put him in a cooled area, in preparation for a necropsy by the veterinary institute that can help determine what really happened to him,” marine biologist Sebastian Strand told NRK, adding that no major external injuries were visible on the animal.

Strand, who has monitored Hvaldimir’s adventures for the past three years on behalf of Marine Mind, said he was deeply affected by the whale’s sudden death.
“It’s absolutely horrible,” Strand said. “He was apparently in good condition as of [Friday). So we just have to figure out what might have happened here.”

Hvaldimir was 4.2 metres (14ft) long, weighed 1,225kg (2,700 pounds) and was thought to be between 14 and 15 years old.

Over the past five years, he had been seen in several Norwegian coastal towns and it was clear that he was very tame and enjoyed playing with people, NRK said.

Norwegian media speculated that rather than being a “spy whale”, Hvaldimir had actually been a “therapy whale” of some kind.

Beluga whales, whose habitat is the northern waters of Greenland, Norway and Russia, usually live to between 40 and 60 years of age.

 

Hvaldimir: a Beluga whale found dead in Norway… and also alleged ‘Russian spy’?



A white whale wearing a harness was seen by fishermen off the coast of northern Norway in April 2019. On Sunday, an NGO that tracks his movements said the whale, nicknamed ‘Hvaldimir’ had been found dead. — Picture courtesy of Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries via AFP

Monday, 02 Sep 2024 

STOCKHOLM, Sept 2 — A Beluga whale whose strange harness sparked suspicions it was trained by Russia for spying purposes has been found dead in Norway, according to an NGO which tracks his movements.

-Advertisement-

Nicknamed “Hvaldimir” in a pun on the Norwegian word for whale, hval, and its purported ties to Moscow, the beluga first appeared off the coast in Norway's far-northern Finnmark region in 2019.

At the time, Norwegian marine biologists removed an attached man-made harness with a mount suited for an action camera and the words “Equipment St. Petersburg” printed on the plastic clasps.

Norwegian officials said Hvaldimir may have escaped an enclosure and may have been trained by the Russian navy as he appeared to be accustomed to humans.

Moscow has never issued any official reaction to speculation that he could be a “Russian spy”.

On Saturday, the beluga's lifeless body was discovered off the southwest coast at Risavika by Marine Mind, an organisation that has tracked his movements for years.

“I found Hvaldi dead when I was scouting for him yesterday like usual,” Marine Mind's founder Sebastian Strand told AFP.

“We had confirmation of him being alive little more than 24 hours before finding him floating motionlessly,” he added.

Fredrik Skarbovik, maritime coordinator at the port of Stavanger, confirmed the beluga's death to the VG tabloid newspaper.

Strand said the cause of the whale's demise was unknown and no visible injuries were found during an initial inspection of Hvaldimir's body.

“We've managed to retrieve his remains and put him in a cooled area, in preparation for a necropsy by the veterinary institute that can help determine what really happened to him,” Strand added.

With an estimated age of around 14 or 15, Hvaldimir was relatively young for a Beluga whale, which can live to between 40 and 60 years of age.

Beluga whales can reach a size of six metres (20 feet) and generally tend to inhabit the icy waters around Greenland, northern Norway and Russia.

Those include the Barents Sea, a geopolitically important area where Western and Russian submarine movements are monitored.

It is also the gateway to the Northern Route that shortens maritime journeys between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. — AFP

Vivian Krause to ‘Oil Mafia’ Supporters: ‘the Environmentalists Have Won’

The researcher who inspired Alberta’s Energy War Room isn’t done with the alleged conspiracy to landlock Canadian fossil fuel.

April 14, 2023 by DeSmog 

LONG READ


By Taylor Noakes on Desmog

Vivian Krause may well claim the title of the Canadian woman who launched a thousand op-eds.

For over a decade Krause’s claim — that American philanthropic organizations are influencing Canadian environmental groups — provided the basis for hundreds of editorials alleging a far-reaching conspiracy to landlock Canadian oil and gas resources. Columnists pointed to Krause’s research as evidence that American-backed eco-radicals had taken over federal and provincial governments in Canada, halted major pipeline projects, and “played right into the business interests of U.S. billionaires by becoming their useful idiots.”

In recent years Krause has selectively pushed back against such claims, taking legal action against some publications that suggested she linked U.S. oil interests to anti-pipeline efforts. While Krause maintains that she never explicitly stated there were commercial interests behind environmental campaigns against the tar sands, she has nonetheless stated her belief the American economy has benefited considerably. Canadian Press issued a correction and apology to Krause for a 2021 story that made this link more explicit. But most of the high-profile columnists and politicians who referenced her work went unchallenged when concluding environmental protest constitutes foreign political and economic interference, or benefits the American energy sector.

Krause’s research laid the foundation for a $3.5 million public inquiry into anti-Alberta energy campaigns and their funding. She’s been credited by Alberta premiers Danielle Smith and Jason Kenney for inspiring the $30 million Canadian Energy Centre, also known as the Energy War Room, which aims to counter what it has described as “domestic and foreign-funded campaigns against Canada’s oil and gas industry.”

Alberta’s public inquiry found no wrongdoing by environmentalists, yet Krause continues to entertain speculation about foreign-funded radicals unwittingly serving the interests of international producers in online spaces run by fossil fuel industry supporters.


Krause rolled out a familiar set of research during a talk to an online group calling itself the Canadian Oil Mafia. Krause told supporters that environmentalists have won the public relations war for Canadians’ hearts and minds, and did not challenge any conspiratorial ideas raised during the hour-long session.

Krause’s claim that environmentalists have won was out of step with the tens of billions of dollars in annual subsidies still paid out to the fossil fuel sector by governments in Canada, the Trudeau government’s purchase of the TransMountain pipeline in 2018, the fact that Canada’s oil sands production hit a record high of 3.6 million barrels a day in the first half of 2022 — largely due to new pipeline capacity across North America — and the record-smashing profits that Canadian oil producers are posting these days, to name just a few examples.

Moreover, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in 2021 Canada was responsible for 51 percent of total U.S. petroleum imports, including crude oil, and 62 percent of its total crude oil imports, making Canada far and away the primary source of foreign oil to the United States.

Krause’s talk, which took place on Twitter Spaces in June 2022, was hosted by Sohaib Abbas and kicked off with, appropriately enough, the Chad Cooke Band’s song Oil Man.

Abbas is the organizer of the Canadian Oil Mafia, whose stated mission is: “To have a positive impact educating others on the Generational Opportunity in the Canadian Energy Industry.” The group consists of people who have made investments in the fossil fuel energy sector, or who otherwise support it. The Canadian Oil Mafia consists of a Twitter Spaces group and, up until a few months ago, a website that sold merchandise featuring pro-oil slogans. Abbas regularly hosts online events featuring speakers commenting on the fossil fuel industry.

Krause’s June presentation was titled: “Sabotaging of Canadian Oil and Gas.” Twitter recorded 679 people tuning into the event, with an average of about 200 participants throughout Krause’s talk.

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After the musical introduction a co-host identified as Mark provided a summary of some of the difficulties experienced by the Canadian oil patch in recent years, from the vantage point of people who feel the Canadian fossil fuel sector has been denied fair access to the global oil and gas market.

The introduction went over some well-trod (if misleading) claims about how Canada “couldn’t get its oil to tidewater” before veering off into speculation about Hollywood celebrities allegedly partying with the Saudi Royal Family while attacking Canada’s oil and gas sector. In fact, Canadian oil exports are at all-time highs, nearing $14 billion CAD in June of 2022, with oil sands production reaching 3.5 million barrels per day in 2021, much of which was pumped south to the Gulf of Mexico through new pipeline infrastructure, including Enbridge’s Line 3.

Asked to comment on this discrepancy, Krause wrote in an emailed statement to DeSmog that “the fact that the industry has recently been profitable does not change the fact that Northern Gateway, Energy East and Keystone XL were canceled.” Though all three of these proposed pipelines were controversial and elicited strong opposition from environmentalists, Northern Gateway’s cancellation was caused in large part by the Federal Court of Appeal rejecting the project due to insufficient consultation with Indigenous groups. The latter two were both canceled by TransCanada Energy (now called TC Energy).

Despite the presentation’s title, Krause did not directly demonstrate who was responsible for allegedly sabotaging Canada’s fossil fuel sector. Participants seemed to already believe the sector had been sabotaged and that environmentalists were responsible.

What Krause offered was the insinuation of guilt by association, and much of that was based on what Krause claims to have discovered about campaigns against the salmon farming industry in British Columbia, and not the fossil fuel sector.

Krause said the issue of salmon farming was particularly contentious in British Columbia in the 1990s, as farming practices were damaging wild salmon habitats (arguments that have been confirmed by recent research). The BC government instituted a divisive moratorium that had the support of environmentalists, including the David Suzuki Foundation.

Krause claimed that she had found evidence suggesting wild salmon had greater concentrations of mercury than farmed salmon, and that studies issued by the Suzuki Foundation — concerning the negative environmental impacts of salmon farming — were flawed. She stated that her efforts to bring this to the attention of the foundation were rebuffed, and this caused her to split with Suzuki, whom she said she once supported. This she claimed was the moment that set her on a course to investigate the money trail behind prominent Canadian environmental groups.

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Krause was emphatic that “…the same organizations using the same strategies, the same tactics, and sometimes involving the same scientific journals, the same activists, the same people with the same approach that had sabotaged salmon farming in British Columbia (…) were now turning their eyes to Alberta oil,” but never provided any specific proof.

One host asked whether Krause believed an increase in the number of applications or approvals from the Alberta Energy Regulator starting in 2010 had “tipped off” environmental activists.

Krause responded that the Rockefeller Brothers Fund had been funding the Suzuki Foundation on matters related to the north coast of BC and that, after the California energy crisis and the September 11th terrorist attacks of 2001, that the fund began reorienting its focus toward energy security. Krause said that the Rockefeller fund then became more involved in advocacy and activism circa 2004, providing money to set up meetings in Canada as well as to “develop a strategic plan to address oil and gas development in B.C.” Krause also said the same fund gave “Canadian environmental groups $100,000 each” though without specifying which groups were funded, which she said was “…to prevent the development of a pipeline and tanker port on the north coast of B.C.” She continued, saying that the same funder then provided millions more in the middle aughts to what she termed activist groups.

“Those of us who have a different vision for our country, our future, we need to realize that we’re in a battle of ideas,” Krause said. “It’s not just the best ideas that win. It’s the team that works the hardest. The people that wanted to sabotage all these projects, they worked really hard. They raised a lot of money. They’re winning right now.”

Krause reiterated that environmental activists have successfully sabotaged the “projects that could have enabled our country to be part of the global energy market.”

Krause described how the best intentions of the environmental movement had, as she described it, negatively impacted the lives of ordinary people. “That is one of the things that motivated me — I have no time for people who falsely malign hardworking people. And we saw an entire industry that’s been falsely maligned, unfairly smeared,” said Krause.

Krause again used fish farming examples to support her allegations of manipulation of the fossil fuel sector. She said that the environmentalist effort against the BC salmon farming industry had been done specifically to aid the Alaskan commercial salmon fishing industry: “Alaska had a flourishing commercial salmon fishing industry. And then there was the competition from the farmed salmon. What happened is the Packard Foundation put this program together to help the Alaskan commercial fisheries reposition their product. And they did it by de-positioning or de-marketing the competition,” Krause said. “This was about market access and what they were doing by funding the activist groups was blocking market access. So they were mitigating the trade impacts by exaggerating the environmental impact.”

Krause alleged that the same groups turned their attention to Alberta oil in 2010, and adopted the same strategies for the same purpose. This, Krause explained, was done all while being mindful not to offend Saudi Arabian interests, and so it was Canadian oil that came to be demonized by American ENGOs.

“They didn’t want to talk about the geopolitics, especially after 9/11,” Krause said. Instead, she claimed the US built up its alternative energy supply “in the name of saving the planet rather than in the name of getting off Saudi oil.”

Canadian tarsands oil first surpassed imports from Saudi Arabia in 2004, a consequence of the American invasion of Iraq. By 2014, the United States was importing less oil and petroleum products than at any time in the previous two decades, but this was a consequence of reduced demand and increased domestic production, not a transition to alternative energy sources. Increased American production resulted in a global oil glut by the end of 2014. At Saudi Arabia’s insistence, OPEC maintained their production rate, pushing the price of a barrel of oil down to below $50 by early 2015. This in turn caused both American and Canadian oil production to plummet. It led to major layoffs in the oil patch and contributed to the chronic difficulties experienced by Canada’s fossil fuel sector in subsequent years.

Krause was asked why American philanthropic organizations chose to focus their energies on landlocking Canadian oil and gas, to which she responded Canada was the only country that could help the United States transition off of imported Saudi Arabian oil, which she claimed ranged from 40 to 60 percent of all the oil consumed in the United States.

While Canada did replace Saudi Arabia as the primary foreign source of oil imported into the United States in 2004, Saudi Arabian exports to the United States were already declining, falling from a high of 1.77 million barrels per day in 2003 to 530,000 in 2020. Similarly, U.S. oil imports from the Persian Gulf fell over the same period, from an all time high set in 2001, when imports from the region accounted for 23 percent of the U.S. total, down to less than 16 percent in 2018. Current data reveals that Saudi Arabia only accounted for 5 percent of total American petroleum imports, including crude oil. Canada, by contrast, accounted for 51 percent in the same year, continuing a more or less consistent trend that reaches back to the 1990s.

These facts undermine Krause’s claims that the conspiracy to sabotage Canada’s oil and gas sector was successful. As a percentage of its total oil import, the United States is more dependent on Canada today than it has been on Saudi Arabia at any point in the last four — nearly five — decades.

Krause opined that the other reason American philanthropic groups targeted Canada is because, in Krause’s words, “we’re easy to push around,” which was readily accepted by the audience.

“We’ve made ourselves an easy target by never fighting back and never pushing back (…) that’s why I talked so much about salmon farming, because if you want to know the future of the activism against Canadian oil, look at salmon farming. They had just shown that you can bully an industry, an entire industry, and have it discontinue investing in a particular country. It worked on fish. Why not try it on oil?”

The Canadian Oil Mafia latched on to this narrative in particular, with the cohost identified as Mark stating: “We are such a punching bag.”

Given reports that the Canadian government provided more than $18 billion in verifiable subsidies to the fossil fuel sector in 2022, Krause’s claim that the environmental movement has won anything is difficult to believe.

Taylor C. Noakes is an independent journalist and public historian.

—

Previously Published on desmog