Polling from YouGov, released today, shows the SNP extending their lead over Labour by 7 points to 11%. Although it will certainly be well received in SNP circles, for the moment it doesn't look like it will be enough to make them favourites in the upcoming Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election.
YouGov puts Labour on 27% (down 5 points) to the SNP's 38% (+2). Based on this alone, the Rutherglen by-election might look favourable for the SNP, however this doesn't take the context of the seat into consideration. In 2019, the SNP held on to the seat by 9.7%. Although it's a decent margin, the national results for 2019 in Scotland saw SNP experience a vote that was around 26 points greater than Labour. On current polling, that margin is 11 points. With this swing, Labour could still be hopeful of winning back Rutherglen.
To put YouGov's recent pro-SNP shift into context, the below graph compares the 2019 Rutherglen result with a proportional and uniform swing applied based on the new polling. The dashed line represents the parties' vote shares based on the SNP-Lab swing from YouGov's previous poll, where the SNP led by just 4 points nationally.
On both a proportional and uniform swing of the YouGov poll, Labour would win the by-election - by 5% and 12% respectively. This compares to margins of 12% and 23% on prior polling. Our own adjusted UNS model predicts a slightly smaller Labour win.
There are some caveats to such predictions. By-elections are unique contests, with different electorates, and the high pre-existing Labour vote share might also mean the swing in the seat is lower than nationally. Equally, Labour might gain an advantage based on the circumstances surrounding Margaret Ferrier. Either way, it remains an important test for Starmer and Sarwar.
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