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Monday, March 09, 2026

Avian Flu Strikes California’s Northern Elephant Seals; Area Quarantined – Analysis


 Mongabay
By Christine Heinrichs


Ever since a deadly strain of avian influenza, H5N1, killed some 17,000 southern elephant seal pups on South American coastlines in 2023 and 2024, researchers and public officials have kept an extra-close eye on California’s northern elephant seals. Fears of infection have now become reality: Lab tests just proved the virus has breached this colony.

In mid-February, six young, newly weaned seals on Año Nuevo State Park beaches fell ill. They had obvious respiratory problems and also suffered from neurological symptoms, including weakness, tremors and seizures — all of which pointed to H5N1.

The research team collected samples from sick and dead elephant seals, which were analyzed at the California Animal Health and Food Safety Laboratory System. Initial screening revealed that the samples were positive for avian influenza; it was then confirmed to be the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain.

As of Feb. 24, seven pups had tested positive for the virus, according to the USDA’s National Veterinary Services Laboratory. At time of publication, 30 seals had died, 29 of them weaned pups, but the cause has not yet been confirmed for all the victims.

The outbreak marks the first cases of H5N1 in marine mammals in California and the first time it’s been found in northern elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris). This highly contagious virus has been circulating the planet as a panzootic — an animal pandemic — since 2020, infecting and killing some 700 species of birds and mammals.

Because of the constant monitoring of these seals, the virus was detected “very early in the outbreak,” Roxanne Beltran, an assistant professor in ecology and evolutionary biology at UC Santa Cruz, said during a press conference. Beltran’s lab leads the university’s northern elephant seal research program at Año Nuevo.

Her colleague, Christine Johnson, elaborated. “This is exceptionally rapid detection of an outbreak in free-ranging marine mammals,” she said. Johnson directs the Institute for Pandemic Insights at the University of California, Davis. “We have most likely identified the very first cases here because of coordinated teams that have been on high alert with active surveillance for this disease for some time.”

On Monday, Feb. 23, California State Parks barred the public from the elephant seal viewing area of the Año Nuevo Coast Natural Preserve. Then, with confirmation that H5N1 was responsible, tours have been canceled for the rest of the season.

A deadly virus

Avian flu — which, in another, milder strain is much like the common cold in wild birds — morphed and became pathogenic when chickens and other poultry at industrial-scale producers were exposed to the virus through contact with migrating flocks of wild birds. Since it first appeared in Europe in 2020, this “Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza” strain has devastated wildlife worldwide, the largest avian flu outbreak ever. And this panzootic is obviously not over.

H5N1 has raged on, leaping the species barrier to infect animals on six continents, pole to pole. Animals that gather in large groups, like pinnipeds and birds, are particularly vulnerable. Proximity is a big factor in a virus’s ability to spread, as the world learned too well during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Animals can be infected by contact with an infected bird or animal or their droppings. Both scavengers and carnivores may catch H5N1 by eating an infected carcass. But in 2024, researchers made a startling discovery about how this quickly mutating virus had changed: They discovered that elephant seals were passing the virus between themselves. This method of transmission makes a virus infinitely more dangerous. Since then, animal-to-animal transmission has been confirmed in the wild, in zoos and on farms.

Some of the wildlife victims are endangered species, and this virus’s ability to spread to new hosts is astounding. As of December 2025, H5N1 had infected some 598 types of bird and 102 mammal species, according to the United Nations. The numbers have jumped substantially over the past 18 months: As of August 2024, the U.N. tally was 485 bird and 48 mammal species.


H5N1 has stricken or killed animals as diverse as sea otters, house cats, terns, dolphins, foxes, California condors, rats, albatrosses, cougars, polar bears, zoo tigers — and many, many others, including humans. An outbreak in imperiled species could push them to extinction: Wildlife is already fighting to survive against a changing climate, disappearing habitat and other stressors.

On the lookout

Scientists from UC Davis have been testing samples from marine birds and mammals along the coast since 2024. With colleagues from UC Santa Cruz, they’d increased surveillance at elephant seal beaches over the past two months in anticipation of a possible disease outbreak: From mid-December through March, the area becomes a nursery, as mothers arrive and give birth to their pups. The beaches are literally littered with seals, often in very close proximity.

“Given the catastrophic impacts observed in related species, we were concerned about the possibility of the virus infecting northern elephant seals for the first time, so we ramped up monitoring to detect any early signs of abnormalities,” Beltran said.

That wasn’t only because of the massive seal die-off in South America. “We had two prior outbreaks in U.S. marine mammals; not elephant seals, but other types of seals, one in Maine in 2022 and [another] in Washington state in 2023,” Johnson said. “Because of these trends and global trends in H5N1 outbreaks around the world, our teams, both at UC Davis and UC Santa Cruz, increased disease surveillance at Año Nuevo and other locations in anticipation of a possible spillover into seals.”

The team is now working closely with NOAA Fisheries, the California Department of Fish and Wildlife and the West Coast Marine Mammal Stranding Network to closely monitor marine mammals along the coast.

The rich eastern Pacific coast is a marine mammal hotspot, with about 350,000 northern elephant seals that haul out on at least 14 rookery beaches along the U.S. West Coast, offshore islands and Mexico.

Elephant seals congregate at various locations along the West Coast. The size of the circle shows the relative number of seals at that site. The seals’ flippers are tagged with different colors according to their birthplace. Image courtesy of Richard Condit, Population Biology of Northern Elephant Seals.

They share that coast with five other pinnipeds: 250,000-300,000 California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), about 66,000 northern or Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus), some 14,000 northern fur seals, (Callorhinus ursinus), 35,000-44,000 Guadalupe fur seals (Arctocephalus townsendi) and perhaps 31,000 harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardsi).

With some six decades of study, researchers have amassed astounding data on this elephant seal population. It includes some 380,000 observations of 55,000 individuals.

They’ve tracked individuals, built family trees, and they knew the history of one of the victims, a dead “weaner.” It was the offspring of a mother in the study who was herself born on that beach. The pup entered the researcher’s database when she was 15 days old. She was weaned when her mother left the beach; two mornings later, she was convulsing on the beach. By afternoon, she was dead.

“It’s tough to watch animals we have followed and watched for years get sick,” Beltran said. “We know their family lineages.”

This large body of research will greatly inform assessments of the long-term effects on the population: how many pups survive, whether females are affected and future births.
Rapid transmission

The virus’s ability to mutate rapidly and its record of infecting other species make it a cause of intense concern, and seal populations have suffered catastrophic losses. In 2022-23, H5N1 swept along South America’s Atlantic and Pacific coastlines, slaying more than 30,000 sea lions in addition to the devastation of the southern elephant seal (M. leonina) population on Argentina’s Península Valdés, which was the species’ largest die-off ever.

It’s also infected people. Since 2024, 71 human cases have been diagnosed in the U.S., with two deaths. Most cases involved hands-on contact with infected cows or poultry. Current public health risk is considered low, experts say, with no person-to-person transmission reported.

“The more a virus like this is able to mutate and find its way into a wide range of species, especially farmed species that live in close contact with people like poultry and now cattle, the more the odds go up that a viral strain will more easily make that leap to people,” wildlife veterinarian Steve Osofsky, a professor and wildlife health expert at Cornell University’s College of Veterinary Medicine, wrote in Statin June 2025.

Cautionary measures

To protect the public and limit virus transmission, the public has been barred from the area for the rest of the season. A California State Parks spokesperson said 4,363 tickets for Año Nuevo tours were canceled. Visitors pay $11 each to hike out 1.5-3 kilometers (1-2 miles) with a guide to view the elephant seals during the mid-December through March mating and pupping season.

Since this pathogen is zoonotic and can spread between wildlife, livestock and humans, surveillance extends beyond animals. With each leap to a new mammal host, it raises concern that the virus could more easily infect people. Since 2021, there have been 131 human infections globally, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But thus far, it hasn’t spread between humans.

Over the past 50 years or so, zoonotic diseases have emerged and spread at ever-faster rates, facilitated by human conversion of wild habitats and global travel and trade. This allows humans and animals to swap germs that are quickly transported across the globe and shared with species that have no immunity to them. These emerging diseases rarely have a cure and are often fatal. Examples include HIV and Ebola.

Christian Walzer, executive director of health at the nonprofit Wildlife Conservation Society, called H5N1 “an existential threat to the world’s biodiversity.”

For now, the hope is that this is a small outbreak. “If it’s a cluster, we will figure it out,” said Dominic Travis, the chief programs officer at The Marine Mammal Center. “If it’s perpetuated, it will be really tricky. We will assess it day by day with NOAA.”

The timing of the outbreak may lean in the seals’ favor. “We are cautiously optimistic, as most of the adult females had already departed the beach for their routine migrations before the outbreak began, and most seals on the colony seem healthy,” Beltran said.

This article includes reporting by Sharon Guynup.

Source: This article was published by Mongabay

Citation: Uhart, M., Vanstreels, R. E., Nelson, M. I., Olivera, V., Campagna, J., Zavattieri, V., … Rimondi, A. (2024). Massive outbreak of influenza A H5N1 in elephant seals at peninsula Valdes, Argentina: Increased evidence for mammal-to-mammal transmission. doi:10.1101/2024.05.31.596774


Mongabay

Mongabay is a U.S.-based non-profit conservation and environmental science news platform. Rhett A. Butler founded Mongabay.com in 1999 out of his passion for tropical forests. He called the site Mongabay after an island in Madagascar.

Friday, February 20, 2026

MAGA Goon Threatens Researchers Over Ugly Trump Tariff Numbers

Tamilore Oshikanlu
Wed, February 18, 2026 

President Donald Trump’s op economic adviser is lashing out at Federal Reserve researchers after a new study undercut one of the administration’s core talking points on tariffs.

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, went on a tirade Wednesday morning during an appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box, blasting a Federal Reserve Bank of New York paper that found Americans—not foreign exporters—are footing the overwhelming cost of Trump’s tariffs.

“The paper is an embarrassment,” Hassett, 63, said of the study. He went further, calling it “the worst paper I’ve ever seen in the history of the Federal Reserve system” and suggesting that the authors behind it should be “disciplined” for their findings.


Kevin Hassett appeared on CNBC 'Squawk Box' defending Trump's tariffs. / CNBC Squawk Box

The study, published Feb. 12 by the New York Fed, examined whether tariffs imposed at the start of Trump’s second term were successfully forcing foreign exporters to lower prices. Instead, researchers found the opposite: roughly 90 percent of tariff costs are being passed on to U.S. consumers and businesses.

That conclusion directly contradicts Trump’s repeated claims that tariffs strengthen the economy without hurting Americans. The president, 79, has touted the policy as both an economic and national security win, writing in a recent Truth Social rant that “TARIFFS have given us Economic and National Security.”

Reached for comment, White House spokesperson Kush Desai blasted the analysis.

“Kevin Hassett is right: the New York Fed’s tariff report is the latest ‘study’ that does not match reality or hold up to any scrutiny. The average American tariff has increased nearly sevenfold in the past year, while inflation cooled, real wages increased, and economic growth accelerated – the exact opposite of what the ‘experts’ and a growing body of ‘studies’ said would happen. More pointless reports are not going to change the fact that President Trump was right and the Panican experts were, and remain, wrong."

When questioned by Squawk Box host Joe Kernen, 70, on American consumers eating the cost of tariffs, Hassett dismissed the Fed’s analysis as politically motivated. He argued the findings had fueled “highly partisan” coverage and claimed the paper relied on flawed assumptions that “wouldn’t be accepted in a first semester econ class.”

Pressed on who actually bears the burden of tariffs, Hassett insisted the study was too narrow—faulting it for focusing primarily on price changes while ignoring broader economic dynamics like supply and demand interactions and shifts in consumer and producer behavior.

Instead, he offered a far rosier picture of the administration’s policy, claiming tariffs have ultimately benefited Americans. “Real wages were up $1,400 on average last year,” Hassett said, arguing that American consumers are “better off” despite rising import costs.

The New York Fed declined to comment on Hassett’s remarks.


Kevin Hassett stands firm behind President Donald Trump on his tariff policies. / Kevin Dietsch / Getty Images

Trump has made tariffs a cornerstone of his second term, dramatically increasing duties on imports from countries including China, Mexico, and Canada. Since last year, average tariff rates have jumped from roughly 2.6 percent to about 13 percent, according to the study.

But the policy has triggered a cascade of consequences—both economic and political.

Canada, one of the countries hit by the tariffs, has already responded with retaliatory measures, including pulling U.S. alcohol from shelves in Ontario’s government-run liquor stores. The escalating trade tensions have added strain to relations between the two longtime allies.


Tensions between Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump have heightened over tariff disputes. / BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI / AFP via Getty Images

Back in Washington, Trump is also facing mounting resistance from within his own party. In a notable rebuke last Tuesday, six House Republicans joined Democrats in voting to end the emergency tariffs imposed on Canada.

The vote marked an unusual crack in GOP unity on one of Trump’s signature policies—and the president did not take it lightly.

In a fiery Truth Social post, Trump warned that Republicans who opposed him could face consequences in upcoming midterm elections, signaling he’s prepared to punish within his own ranks.

Even within the Trump administration, there are signs that officials may be quietly reconsidering parts of the tariff strategy.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, 46, suggested Tuesday during an interview on Squawk Box that some tariffs—particularly on steel and aluminum—could be adjusted for companies struggling to comply with the steep duties.

Meanwhile, Canadian officials are gearing up for what could be a contentious round of negotiations. Prime Minister Mark Carney, 60, announced on Monday that veteran diplomat Janice Charette will serve as the country’s chief trade negotiator in upcoming free-trade agreement talks with the United States.

Trump's top economic advisor says Fed researchers should be punished for their recent views on tariffs


Naomi Buchanan
Wed, February 18, 2026 




Trump's top economic advisor said Fed economists behind a recent report on tariffs should be "disciplined."


The report from the New York Fed found that Americans bear 90% the economic burden of tariffs.


Economists voiced worries about the comments and what they mean for Fed independence.

Donald Trump's economic advisor said that Federal Reserve writers behind a report claiming that Americans bear the brunt of tariffs should be "disciplined."

Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, criticized the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's economic analysis of the impact of tariffs published last week, calling for the authors to be punished for their findings.

"The paper is an embarrassment. It's, I think, the worst paper I've ever seen in the history of the Federal Reserve system. The people associated with this paper should presumably be disciplined because what they've done is put out a conclusion which has created a lot of news that's highly partisan based on analysis that wouldn't be accepted in a first semester econ class," Hassett told CNBC.

The economists found that 90% of the economic burden of higher tariffs fell on US firms and consumers. The average tariff rate climbed to 13% from 2.6% in 2025 as part of Trump's sweeping trade policy unveiled last April.

"While importers pay the duty, the 'economic burden' of the tariff can be shifted onto exporters if they lower their export prices," the report reads. "There is 100 percent pass-through from tariffs to import prices, and therefore on U.S. consumers and firms," the economists explained in the write.

Hassett defended the tariffs in his comments to CNBC.

"The basic theory of President Trump's tariffs is that, sure we're importing stuff from China, but we've got producers in the US that make the same stuff, maybe at a slightly higher price. If we bring the stuff home, create the demand at home, then that will hurt China and drive up wages in the US and American consumers be better off."

Hassett's remarks come as Fed independence is in focus. The Trump administration is in the midst of criminal investigations into Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Fed governor Lisa Cook.

Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist who is known for creating the Sahm rule, a popular recession indicator, said the comments, specifically Hassett calling for the paper's authors to be disciplined, are "deeply disturbing."

She added that Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, "must" be asked about Hassett's comments at his confirmation hearing.


"The Fed Chair has the ability to suppress research from the Fed. Will he if it disagrees with White House?" Sahm wrote.

Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told Business Insider that Hassett's comments are "distressing."

"At best it's an angry outburst instead of a reasoned response, and at worst it is meant to chill speech and curb central bank independence," he added.

Kashkari Rips Hassett Criticism of NY Fed Tariff Analysis



Catarina Saraiva
Thu, February 19, 2026 

Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said recent comments by National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett critical of a New York Fed study on tariffs undermine the central bank’s independence.

“This is just another step to try to compromise the Fed’s independence,” Kashkari said Thursday at an event in Fargo, North Dakota, of Hassett’s remarks. “Over the last year we’ve seen multiple attempts to try to compromise the Fed’s independence.” He added, “It’s really about monetary policy.”

 Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari criticizes National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett’s comments about a New York Fed study on tariffs.
Source: Bloomberg

Hassett on Wednesday said the New York Fed economists’ study, which found US companies bear most of the burden from President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes, was “an embarrassment” and that the researchers associated with it should be “disciplined.”

Kashkari said research conducted by Fed district banks reflect efforts “to get better and learn about the economy — by having this breadth of opinions.”


“We are doing our very best to make the best assessment of the economy based on data and analysis,” the Minneapolis Fed chief said.

‘Hug the Mast’

Kashkari also pointed to the current Justice Department investigation of the Fed over building renovations as evidence of Trump administration pressure. Chair Jerome Powell in January said, when served subpoenas, that the reasons for the investigation were a pretext to punish him for not cutting interest rates quickly enough. Trump has repeatedly said the Fed should cut rates aggressively.

“The louder the noise gets turned up, the more we hug the mast of what is our mission,” Kashkari said, citing the Fed’s mandate to achieve price stability and maximum employment.

The Minneapolis Fed chief was also asked about Kevin Warsh, whom Trump has said he’ll nominate to be the next Fed chair. Powell’s term expires in May. Warsh has repeatedly criticized various elements of the Fed and said he wants to revamp the institution.


“I look forward to working with him and hearing his ideas,” said Kashkari, who worked with Warsh during the financial crisis. “We can always do better. If we’ve got good ideas on how to improve things, let’s go take them forward.”

Balance Sheet

Warsh has said he wants to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet, which surged in size during both the financial crisis and the pandemic, when the Fed was buying assets to shore up the economy. Kashkari argued there are many technical reasons why the balance sheet — currently at $6.6 trillion — is much bigger today than it was before those crises, including foreign demand for US currency and the amount of reserves banks have to maintain at the Fed for liquidity purposes.


“We’ve shrunk our balance sheet quite a bit in the last few years, and I’m not sure that we can shrink it much further from here without making some other fundamental changes to the way the financial system operates,” he said.

On interest rates, Kashkari said the Fed’s benchmark is currently likely close to “neutral” — the point where they’re neither restricting the economy nor stimulating it. The Fed held rates unchanged at its January meeting, a decision Kashkari supported, after cutting them three consecutive times in the last few months of 2025.

--With assistance from Matt Shirley.

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek




Tariffs paid by midsize US companies tripled last year, a JPMorganChase Institute study shows

President Donald Trump visits Coosa Steel Corporation in Rome, Ga., Thursday, Feb. 19, 2026. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein) · Associated Press Finance · ASSOCIATED PRESS
JOSH BOAK

Thu, February 19, 2026 at 4:16 AM MST 4 min read

WASHINGTON (AP) — Tariffs paid by midsize U.S. businesses tripled over the course of past year, new research tied to one of America’s leading banks showed on Thursday — more evidence that President Donald Trump 's push to charge higher taxes on imports is causing economic disruption.

The additional taxes have meant that companies that employ a combined 48 million people in the U.S. — the kinds of businesses that Trump had promised to revive — have had to find ways to absorb the new expense, by passing it along to customers in the form of higher prices, employing fewer workers or accepting lower profits.

“That’s a big change in their cost of doing business,” said Chi Mac, business research director of the JPMorganChase Institute, which published the analysis Thursday. “We also see some indications that they may be shifting away from transacting with China and maybe toward some other regions in Asia.”

The research does not say how the additional costs are flowing through the economy, but it indicates that tariffs are being paid by U.S. companies. The study is part of a growing body of economic analyses that counter the administration's claims that foreigners pay the tariffs.

The JPMorganChase Institute report used payments data to look at businesses that might lack the pricing power of large multinational companies to offset tariffs, but may be small enough to quickly change supply chains to minimize exposure to the tax increases. The companies tended to have revenues between $10 million and $1 billion with fewer than 500 employees, a category known as “middle market.”

The analysis suggests that the Trump administration’s goal of becoming less directly reliant on Chinese manufacturers has been occurring. Payments to China by these companies were 20% below their October 2024 levels, but it’s unclear whether that means China is simply routing its goods through other countries or if supply chains have moved.

The authors of the analysis emphasized in an interview that companies are still adjusting to the tariffs and said they plan to continue studying the issue.

White House spokesman Kush Desai called the analysis “pointless” and said it didn't “change the fact that President Trump was right.” The study showed that U.S. companies are paying tariffs that the president had previously claimed would be paid by foreign entities.

Trump defended his tariffs during a trip to Georgia on Thursday while touring Coosa Steel, a company involved in steel processing and distribution. The president said he couldn’t believe the Supreme Court would soon decide on the legality of some of his tariffs, given his belief that the taxes were helping U.S. manufacturers.

“The tariffs are the greatest thing to happen to this country,” Trump said.

The president imposed a series of tariffs last year for the ostensible goal of reducing the U.S. trade imbalance with other countries, so that America was not longer importing more than it exports. But trade data published Thursday by the Census Bureau showed that the trade deficit climbed last year by $25.5 billion to $1.24 trillion. The president on Wednesday posted on social media that he expected there would be a trade surplus “during this year.”

The Trump administration has been adamant that the tariffs are a boon for the economy, businesses, and workers. Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, lashed out on Wednesday at research by the New York Federal Reserve showing that nearly 90% of the burden for Trump's tariffs fell on U.S. companies and consumers.

“The paper is an embarrassment,” Hassett told CNBC. “It’s, I think, the worst paper I’ve ever seen in the history of the Federal Reserve system. The people associated with this paper should presumably be disciplined.”

Trump increased the average tariff rate to 13% from 2.6% last year, according to the New York Fed researchers. He declared that tariffs on some items such as steel, kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities were in the national security interest of the country. He also declared an economic emergency to bypass Congress and impose a baseline tax on goods from much of the world in April 2025 at an event he called “Liberation Day.”

The high rates provoked a financial market panic, prompting Trump to walk back his rates and then engage in talks with multiple countries that led to a set of new trade frameworks. The Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on whether Trump surpassed his legal authority by declaring an economic emergency.

Trump was elected in 2024 on his promise to tame inflation, but his tariffs have contributed to voter frustration over affordability. While inflation has not spiked during Trump's term thus far, hiring slowed sharply and a team of academic economists estimate that consumer prices were roughly 0.8 percentage points higher than they would otherwise be.



A year in, it’s official: Americans, not foreigners, are paying for Trump’s tariffs

Analysis by Allison Morrow, CNN
February 12, 2026


Nearly 90% of the cost of Trump's tariffs have been borne by American consumers and businesses, according to the New York Federal Reserve. - Nam Y. Huh/AP

A new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York confirms what economists have long warned about: The burden of tariffs is borne almost entirely by the people living in the country that imposes them.

That simple fact — now learned experientially in 21st century America — is an Econ 101 lesson as foundational as supply and demand. ’Twas ever thus!

US businesses and consumers last year paid for nearly 90% of 2025’s import taxes, the Fed branch found. That’s hardly surprising: The National Bureau of Economic Research and the Congressional Budget Office recently found roughly the same thing.

And while the New York Fed report didn’t parse the split between businesses and consumers, the CBO report, published Wednesday, estimated businesses would continue shrinking their margins slightly to offset the extra costs, while passing on the bulk of the levies — 70% — to consumers. (As for those foreign exporters President Donald Trump has long claimed would foot the bill? They’re taking on about 5%, the CBO estimates.)

In real dollar terms, the tariffs amounted to an average tax increase of $1,000 per household in 2025, according to the non-partisan Tax Foundation.

Now, on one hand, these are just your standard academic mumbo-jumbo papers published by a bunch of nerds, for a bunch of nerds. The collective wisdom of economists has never much mattered to Trump when it comes to “the most beautiful word to me in the dictionary,” as he once described tariffs.

But the CBO and New York Fed reports landed just as tariff fatigue is hitting hard in DC.

In a rare rebuke of Trump’s signature economic agenda, six House Republicans joined with Democrats on Wednesday in a vote that would effectively repeal his tariffs on Canada. The tariffs won’t get repealed, mind you, because even if it passed the Senate, Trump would just veto it. But the brushback from Trump’s own party members didn’t go over well in the West Wing, as one might have guessed. Shortly after the vote, Trump responded with a threat of “consequences” for “any Republican” in Congress who votes against tariffs.

Meanwhile, a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariffs is due any day, potentially tossing his whole agenda into upheaval.

In a statement, White House spokesman Kush Desai defended the tariff agenda, noting inflation had cooled and corporate profits have gone up even as “America’s average tariff rate has increased nearly sevenfold.”

“The reality is that President Trump’s economic agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs, and energy abundance are reducing costs and accelerating economic growth,” he said.

Of course, all of that is happening as everyday Americans seethe over the cost of living and increasingly hold Trump and the Republicans responsible. Trump’s campaign message of lowering prices on “day one” simply hasn’t happened. (Except on a few items like eggs — we can give him the W on that one, largely because farmers worked really hard to snuff out the bird flu that was crimping egg supplies and driving up prices.)

On paper, the US economy is humming along nicely. That’s largely because the economy is measured in averages and aggregates.

Take, for example, the January jobs report released Wednesday. On the whole, it looked surprisingly strong, with 130,000 jobs added, nearly double what economists had expected. But if you zoom in, almost all of the gains came from one sector, health care. Zoom in a little more, and virtually every other sector showed either weak gains or losses. In fact, for all of 2025, health care and social assistance accounted for 97% of all the job growth.

That is a prime example of what economist Diane Swonk of KPMG has called the “one-legged stools” holding up the entire economy. Two other one-legged stools: Rich people doing shopping sprees, and giant tech companies shelling out hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure.

For more CNN.com


90% of Trump’s tariffs are paid for by American consumers and companies, New York Fed says

President Donald Trump has said foreign exporters will pay for his tariffs, but new New York Fed data indicates the contrary is happening. · Fortune · Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc—Getty Images

Sasha Rogelberg
Fri, February 13, 202

Despite President Donald Trump insisting it’s foreign businesses paying for his raft of tariffs, mounting data indicates that, actually, American households and businesses are footing the bill for his import taxes.

A Federal Reserve Bank of New York report released Thursday, using data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Foreign Trade Statistics through November 2025, found Americans paid for nearly 90% of the tariffs in 2025, including 94% of the levies from January to August of last year, 92% from September to October, and 86% in November.

“Our results show that the bulk of the tariff incidence continues to fall on U.S. firms and consumers,” the economists wrote. Americans “continue to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs imposed in 2025.”

The report authors—Mary Amiti, Chris Flanagan, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein—explained in their report that over the course of 2025, average tariff rates quintupled from 2.6% to 13%. If foreign firms were the ones paying for the levies, it would be reflected in those companies having to lower prices in order for them to remain the same on American soil once the taxes were applied. Instead, their data reflects that companies exporting to the U.S. have only modestly decreased their prices, leaving it to domestic companies to absorb the increased costs or pass them down to consumers.

Trump has repeatedly asserted other countries looking to export goods to the U.S. are the ones paying for the tariffs. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed last month, Trump said: “The data shows that the burden, or ‘incidence,’ of the tariffs has fallen overwhelmingly on foreign producers and middlemen, including large corporations that are not from the U.S.”

The president’s declaration on the tariffs’ success comes as his trade policy undergoes increased scrutiny. On Wednesday, the House of Representatives passed a resolution, with the support of three Republicans, to overturn the tariffs imposed on Canada out of economic concern. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is awaiting an imminent ruling from the Supreme Court, which will determine the legality of the tariffs on the basis of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Americans have taken note of higher prices as a result of tariffs, and last month, consumer confidence sank to its lowest level in more than 11 years, with survey respondents citing tariffs as one reason for this anxiety.

“Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism,” Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson said in a statement. “References to prices and inflation, oil and gas prices, and food and grocery prices remained elevated. Mentions of tariffs and trade, politics, and the labor market also rose in January, and references to health/insurance and war edged higher.”

“America’s average tariff rate has increased nearly sevenfold in the past year–yet inflation has cooled and corporate profits have increased,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement to Fortune. “The reality is that President Trump’s economic agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs, and energy abundance are reducing costs and accelerating economic growth.”

Writing on the wall

The tariffs’ impact on American businesses and consumers follows a pattern seen in the tariff impact from Trump’s first term. A 2019 study from the Journal of Economic Perspectives found Americans were paying the full incidence, or cost, of tariffs through 2018, which amounted to an estimated reduction of $1.4 billion per month in aggregate U.S. real income through 2018.

The New York Fed report this week similarly mirrors data from myriad sources, including from the Harvard Business School’s Tariff Tracker, which found that through October 2025, the levies added 0.76% to the Consumer Price Index, or U.S. inflation. The Kiel Institute likewise found foreign exports were absorbing only 4% of the tariff burden, leaving 96% to be eaten by U.S. buyers.

U.S. business leaders have been sounding the alarm on tariffs for months for this exact reason, claiming it would be domestic businesses making the call to either absorb costs at the expense of their own margins, or pass down costs to customers.

Procter & Gamble announced in July 2025 it would raise prices on some of its household products like diapers and skincare due to tariffs. General Motors reported the same month a $1.1 billion profit hit as a result of the levies.

“There’s not much you can do,” Bernstein senior analyst Daniel Roeska told Fortune in July. “If the policy is to put tariffs on cars, then that will increase the cost of cars, and ultimately, that will likely increase the price of cars.”

Taken together, the burden of these levies have outweighed the benefits Trump has claimed the taxes will fund, according to some economists. The president has claimed tariff revenue will pay off the country’s staggering $38 trillion national debt and the administration will be able to dole out $2,000 rebate checks to Americans and provide tax cuts.

Nonpartisan think tank the Tax Foundation found earlier this month the costs of tariffs for U.S. households exceed the benefit of a tax break. The group previously estimated Trump’s tax cut would increase the average return by $1,000 from last year, but calculated that the tariff burden for Americans would swell to $1,300 in 2026, wiping out any benefit from the cuts.

“Tariffs are really holding back the potential of the new tax law, both to deliver relief to taxpayers and to grow the economy,” Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation, told Fortune.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

Thursday, February 19, 2026

Bird flu ravaging Antarctic wildlife, scientist warns


By AFP
February 17, 2026


In a recent expedition to Antarctica, new cases of avian flu were discovered in Antarctic cormorants, kelp gulls, Adelie and gentoo penguins, and Antarctic fur seals, according to researcher Victor Neira - Copyright AFP Alain JOCARD

Scientists are sounding the alarm over the spread of bird flu across Antarctica, with a leading Chilean researcher telling AFP Tuesday of an observed strain “capable of killing 100 percent” of infected fauna.

Researchers have been warning in recent years of bird flu’s spread on the icy continent, which hosts temporary teams of scientists but no permanent residents.

But a particularly dangerous strain of the disease was detected in April 2024 by Chilean researcher Victor Neira and his team in five skuas, a type of polar seabird.

Since then, the virus has spread to other species, with cases detected along 900 kilometers (560 miles) of coastline studied by scientists.

In a recent expedition to Antarctica, new cases were discovered in Antarctic cormorants, kelp gulls, Adelie and gentoo penguins, and Antarctic fur seals, Neira told AFP.

“The virus has completely spread throughout the Antarctic region where we have the capacity to go and study,” said Neira, a scientist at the University of Chile and the Chilean Antarctic Institute (INACH).

“This disease is capable of killing 100 percent of the birds in short periods of time,” he said.

“For example, in one or two days it can kill 90 percent or 100 percent of the animals in a given area.”

Antarctic species are often small in total population, underscoring the risk of outbreaks.

Animals such as Antarctic cormorants and skuas number around 20,000 in total.

A global wave of bird flu has affected birds and mammals around the world since 2021, spread via bird migration.

In 2023, it killed thousands of Humboldt penguins in Chile.

Monday, February 16, 2026

UTA opens AI-driven Smart Agriculture Research Center


USDA-backed program puts students on research teams forecasting bird flu and other ag threats



University of Texas at Arlington

Smart Agriculture Research Center grand opening 

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UTA's Smart Agriculture Research Center grand opening.

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Credit: UT Arlington





In the last year, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), commonly known as bird flu, swept through chicken coops across the nation, killing egg-laying hens and contributing to rising egg prices. The outbreaks underscored how vulnerable food systems can be to rapidly spreading biological threats and how urgently new predictive tools are needed to help producers respond.

That’s why the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS) partnered with The University of Texas at Arlington to develop solutions through the Smart Agriculture Research Center (SARC), a new research hub using artificial intelligence and data science to tackle agriculture’s most pressing challenges.

“Agriculture is essential to society, yet it has historically seen less AI integration than other industries,” said Jianzhong Su, professor of mathematics and co-director of SARC. “UTA has tremendous strength in technology and data science, and that positions us to help modernize agriculture in Texas and beyond.”

Opened in August 2025, SARC serves the entire UTA campus through four core pillars: providing AI capacity and data discovery tools for agriculture research projects; serving as a resource hub for faculty pursuing agriculture-related research; securing major USDA and external training and center grants; and serving as UTA’s institutional gateway for external partners focused on sustainability and global environmental impact. Dr. Su and Co-Director Gautam Das, professor of computer science and engineering, work together with more than 20 faculty members in science and engineering.

On Feb. 9, the center hosted a grand opening that included UTA and USDA officials.

“The work done by SARC will turn interdisciplinary research into practical solutions that strengthen our region and drive progress worldwide,” said Kate Miller, vice president for research and innovation at UTA, at the grand opening event. “It is a testament to our 130-year legacy and our bold future.”

Backed by growing federal investment, the center brings together UTA faculty, students and USDA-ARS scientists to apply machine learning to real-world agricultural problems—from predicting plant disease and modeling soil health to forecasting outbreaks of HPAI.

“This center is UTA’s direct response to the national call for climate-smart agriculture and resilient food systems,” said Scott Miller, associate vice president for research and innovation at UTA, during the grand opening event. “We are here to ensure that the innovations born in Arlington scale to support the entire nation.”

Students at the core of the research

A major engine behind the center’s work is a USDA-supported summer research program that immerses UTA students in federal agricultural research projects.

Each year, 20 to 25 undergraduate and graduate students—primarily from mathematics, computer science, engineering and science—participate in an eight- to 10-week summer research experience. Students are grouped into small research teams, each paired with a UTA faculty mentor and a USDA-ARS scientist, to tackle real agricultural data challenges using artificial intelligence and machine learning.

Projects span a wide range of agricultural issues, including predicting plant diseases, modeling the effects of weather on crop resilience, assessing the environmental effects of fertilizers and pesticides, and developing data-driven tools for livestock and poultry health monitoring.

One of the newest research directions focuses on predicting HPAI outbreaks. UTA researchers and USDA scientists are developing models that automatically collect publicly reported outbreak data and generate short-term forecasts. These tools can help poultry producers take preventive measures—such as enhancing biosecurity, increasing sanitation or modifying facility management—to reduce the risk of virus spread.

Although students conduct their research on UTA’s campus, they collaborate remotely with USDA scientists located across the country and participate in site visits to observe agricultural research operations firsthand. The experience provides students with direct exposure to national research networks, which helps build a highly skilled workforce in AI-enabled agriculture.

Building national research capacity

Additional collaborative USDA projects total over $5.5 million in external research investment connected to UTA faculty and ARS partners.

By connecting North Texas talent with national agricultural research networks, the Smart Agriculture Research Center aims to train the next generation of AI-enabled agricultural scientists, strengthen food and environmental resilience, and help producers respond to emerging biological and climate threats.

Thursday, February 05, 2026

 

H5N1 causes die-off of Antarctic skuas, a seabird



Skua deaths mark first wildlife mortality due to avian flu on Antarctica




University of California - Davis

Researchers with skua carcasses in Antarctica 

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Scientists evaluate skua carcasses at Beak Island in Antarctica in March 2024.

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Credit: Ben Wallis





More than 50 skuas in Antarctica died from the high pathogenicity avian influenza virus H5N1 in the summers of 2023 and 2024, marking the first documented die-off of wildlife from the virus on the continent. That is confirmed for the first time in a study led by Erasmus MC in The Netherlands and the University of California, Davis. It published this week in the Nature journal Scientific Reports.

A relative of gulls, skuas are predatory, large brown birds living mostly in polar and subpolar environments. Similar to raptors, they play an important ecological role as scavengers. That role could position them to further spread the virus across Antarctica, the report notes.

Scientists previously detected the virus in a kelp gull and two skuas in Antarctica found dead in January and February 2024. However, avian flu had not been confirmed as the cause of their deaths.

“We knew there were animals with the infection, but this is the first study to show they died of the viral infection,” said co-senior author Ralph Vanstreels, a wildlife veterinarian with the UC Davis One Health Institute within the Weill School of Veterinary Medicine. “It’s an important distinction in the early days of an outbreak.”

Expedition to Antarctica

In March 2024, the authors traveled to Antarctica on a research expedition shortly after the breeding seasons of skuas and penguins. 

They surveyed wildlife at 10 locations in the South Shetland Islands, northern Weddell Sea and Antarctic Peninsula. When they found infected or dead wildlife, they collected tissue samples and environmental samples for analysis and performed necropsies.

The team found and performed post-mortem examinations on carcasses of gentoo penguins, Adélie penguins and Antarctic fur seals, but H5N1 was not diagnosed as the cause of death of those animals.

“As the expedition progressed, it became obvious quickly that skuas were a major victim,” said Vanstreels.

The team detected H5N1 in skuas at three locations – Hope Bay, Devil Island and Beak Island, which experienced a mass die-off of south polar skuas.

“We diagnosed high pathogenicity avian influenza as the cause of death for nearly all of the dead skuas we found at Beak Island,” said first author Matteo Iervolino, a Ph.D. candidate at Erasmus MC in Rotterdam, The Netherlands. “There, I could really see with my eyes the impact this virus can have on these populations.”

Vanstreels called it a “crisis in animal suffering.” The virus hits the brain, causing neurological symptoms, like a twisted neck or abnormal stretching. The birds swim or walk in circles. Sometimes they stumble blindly into an object or fall out of the air. The authors emphasize that humans are partly responsible for the virus and for preventing its spread.

History and spread of H5N1

H5N1 virus was discovered in 1996 in Southeast China on a domestic goose farm. It went uncontrolled within the poultry industry for several years, during which it spilled over into wild birds and then spread to Europe, the Middle East, Africa and later to North America, South America and, in early 2024, to Antarctica.

The same lineage of virus now affecting Antarctic skuas previously decimated elephant seals and sea lions in Argentina, led to the loss of more than 400 million poultry, and has affected dairy cows, mink, foxes, bears, otters and many other mammals and wild birds.

It can also spread to people. About half of the approximately 1,000 people infected with the virus died.

“We let the virus slip out through our fingers when it first emerged in the poultry industry,” said corresponding senior author Thijs Kuiken, a professor at Erasmus MC. “Once it got into wild bird populations, we lost ability to control this virus. Now it’s established in wild bird populations in all the continental regions of the world except Oceania.”

More surveillance needed to prevent spread

Wildlife in Antarctica already face a harsh environment and many threats, from global warming and increased tourism to invasive species, overfishing and pollution. Avian influenza creates an additional stressor requiring further surveillance and monitoring to help prevent future spillover, the study said.

For example, the last census of skuas in Antarctica was conducted in the 1980s, when scientists counted about 800 breeding pairs. Without an updated accounting of the population, the true impact of 50 skua deaths remains unclear.

“Everything points toward this virus spreading further,” Kuiken said. “If nobody is watching, we won’t know what is happening.”

The HPAI Australis Expedition was funded by the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO) and Ocean Expeditions. The study was funded by the European Union, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC) and PTI Global Health.