Tuesday, December 03, 2024

Turkey could benefit from rebel offensive in Syria: experts

By AFP
December 2, 2024

Under threat? Syrian Kurds demonstrate in the northeastern city of Qamishli 
- Copyright AFP Delil SOULEIMAN

Anne CHAON

Turkey could be one of the big winners from the new Syria crisis, giving it a chance to tackle its Syrian refugee problem and the Kurdish threat along its border, observers say.

Although Syrian President Bashar al-Assad spurned an offer of help from his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ankara now appears to have an increasingly important role in decisions that will affect Syria’s immediate future.

– What role did Turkey play in the new rebel offensive?



Omer Ozkizilcik, an Atlantic Council associate researcher in Ankara, said Turkey has a long history of “cooperating” with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the jihadist alliance that led last week’s rebel offensive.

“We can clearly say there was indirect Turkish support (for the offensive) but no direct Turkish involvement,” he told AFP.

Although the attack was due to take place “seven weeks ago… Turkey stopped the rebels from launching this military offensive,” he added.

Assad’s ally Russia has also been “heavily” bombing rebel positions in the northwest to stymie an attack on his government.

Charles Lister, an expert at Washington’s Middle East Institute agreed, saying “the Aleppo offensive was initially planned for mid-October but Turkey put a stop to it”.

It was only after Ankara’s efforts to normalise ties with the Assad regime were rebuffed as it pushed for a political solution, that Turkey gave its green light, Ozkizilcik said.



– What relationship does Turkey have with HTS? –



Turkey has pushed back against the expansion of HTS into the “security zone” in northwest Syria it has carved out for itself, and has put pressure on the radical Islamist group to drop its Al-Qaeda affiliation.

It has also pressed it to avoid attacking Christian and Druze minorities, analysts say.

“The HTS of today is not what it was in 2020,” Ozkizilcik said.

Although Turkey has some influence over the group, Firas Kontar, a Syrian opposition figure of Druze origin and author of “Syria, the Impossible Revolution”, believes Erdogan “no longer has the means to stop HTS”.



– What are relations like between Damascus and Ankara?



Ankara and Damascus broke off ties in 2011 when the war started with Erdogan backing the rebels and denouncing Assad as a “murderer”.

However, since late 2022 the Turkish leader has been seeking a rapprochement, saying in July he was ready to host Assad “at any time”.

But Assad said he would only meet if Turkish forces withdrew from Syria.

Ankara is hoping a rapprochement would pave the way for the return of the 3.2 million Syrian refugees still on its soil, whose presence has become a major domestic hot potato.

“Now with the changing situation on the ground, the balance of power in Syria has shifted: Turkey is the most powerful actor at the moment inside Syria, and Iran and Russia will likely try to negotiate with Turkey,” Ozkizilcik said.



– How is Turkey present in Syria?



Since 2016, Turkey has staged multiple operations against Kurdish forces in northern Syria which has given it a foothold in areas bordering the frontier.

The aim is to oust Kurdish fighters from the border zone, notably the YPG (People’s Protection Units) which are backed by Washington as bulwark against Islamic State group jihadists.

But Ankara views the YPG as an extension of the PKK which has fought a decades-long insurgency inside Turkey and is banned as a terror group by Washington and Brussels.



– And what of the Syrian Kurdish movements?



According to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, pro-Turkey rebels on Sunday seized Tal Rifaat, a town north of Aleppo and the surrounding villages, where some 200,000 Syrian Kurds were living.

Tal Rifaat lies just outside Turkey’s “security zone” with the move prompting Kurdish residents to flee to a safe zone further east.

Turkey’s secret service said it had killed a PKK leader in the area.

“Turkey has already made and probably will make many gains against the YPG terror group to secure its national security,” said Ozkizilcik.

















UN chief ‘alarmed’ by Syria violence, calls for end to fighting

By AFP
December 2, 2024

As of November 30, more than 48,500 people had been displaced in Idlib and northern Aleppo, more than half of them children, the UN says - Copyright AFP CARLOS COSTA

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Monday he was “alarmed” by the escalation of violence in Syria and called for an immediate end to fighting that his organization says has displaced nearly 50,000 people.

“All parties must do their utmost to protect civilians and civilian objects, including by allowing safe passage to civilians who are fleeing hostilities,” Guterres’s spokesman Stephane Dujarric said in a statement.

“Syrians have endured the conflict for nearly 14 years. They deserve a political horizon that will deliver a peaceful future, not more bloodshed,” he added.

Syria has been at war since President Bashar al-Assad cracked down on pro-democracy protests in 2011, with subsequent fighting that has involved foreign powers and jihadists leaving an estimated half a million people dead.

The conflict had been mostly dormant, with Assad back in control of much of the country until last week, when a rebel alliance led by Islamist armed groups began its offensive.

Syria’s military and its ally Russia have responded with deadly air raids on areas under rebel control.

The fighting has killed more than 457 people, including at least 72 civilians, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

As of November 30, more than 48,500 people had been displaced in Idlib and northern Aleppo, more than half of them children, the UN’s humanitarian agency OCHA said on Monday, adding that the situation was highly fluid.

“Tens of thousands of people on the move; critical services interrupted; women, men and children fearing for safety,” OCHA chief Tom Fletcher said on X, describing the situation as “worrying.”

“Syrians have already endured over 13 years of suffering. All sides must do more to protect civilians.”

The number of displaced was a steep increase from the 14,000 people reported on 28 November.

And according to Dujarric, UN peacekeeping operations in the country have been “largely suspended” across Aleppo, Idlib and Hama due to security concerns.

“This has led to severe disruption in people’s ability to access life-saving assistance,” he said, adding that the United Nations remained committed to delivering humanitarian aid.

Dujarric warned that “the presence of unburied bodies and lack of drinking water” in Syria threatens public health and said that damage to Aleppo’s university hospital had left hundreds of patients without care.

“Syria is also already one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises, with 16.7 million human beings in need of assistance and over seven million people internally displaced,” he said.

Israel’s stepped-up offensive against Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon since September had also had an effect on the situation, he said.

“More than half a million people have also fled from Lebanon to Syria in recent weeks, and winter conditions will only make the needs in the coming weeks even more acute.

Read more: https://www.digitaljournal.com/world/un-chief-alarmed-by-syria-violence-calls-for-end-to-fighting/article#ixzz8tL2MPWDd




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