Syria Insight: Assad keeps his head down amid Gaza, Lebanon wars

Syria's Bashar Al-Assad faces a difficult tightrope walk as allies in the region, such as Hassan Nasrallah, are taken out by Israel in quick succession.

17 October, 2024

If silence is as telling as words then the responses from Arab leaders to Hassan Nasrallah’s death reveal much about the multipolarity of the MENA region and the late Hezbollah leader's place within it.

Three camps became apparent in the days following his demise. First 'the mourners' - including Hezbollah's ideological brethren in Iraq and Yemen - who eulogised Nasrallah's enigmatic life and martyrdom.

Then 'the mute' - resolutely anti-Hezbollah states such as the UAE and Bahrain - who avoided publicly condemning this figurehead of the so-called Axis of Resistance but refused to commemorate a staunch opponent of perceived Sunni Gulf hegemony.

Finally, there were 'the pragmatists' - notably Jordan, Egypt, and surprisingly Saudi Arabia - where there was no love lost for Nasrallah but who still recognised the dangerous new path Lebanon had been thrust down, likely to have grave reverberations for the future.

Such fissures were perhaps most pronounced in divided Syria, with opposition Idlib erupting into a festival of nocturnal joy - due to Hezbollah’s role in expelling many of the province's inhabitants from homes elsewhere in Syria - while in Damascus the atmosphere was more sombre with flags lowered to half-mast, music muffled, and three days of mourning shrouding the city.


Whether this was out of genuine respect for a formidable adversary of Israel or fears of the regime's ever-present intelligence services is impossible to discern, but equally perplexing was the absence of words from Bashar Al-Assad himself, who more than anyone owed a debt of gratitude to the fallen Lebanese commander.

From Friday evening until Sunday Assad remained silent.

Behind closed doors across Syria, tongues likely wagged about this unexplainable delay in condolences, after all, Hezbollah blood fell thick on this land to keep the president in his palace, which could have been perceived either as a petulant snub by Assad of his war-time allies or that he was stupefied into silence, fearing who might be next on Israel’s hit list.

This reflects a broader paradoxical assumption: Assad’s illusion of power hinges on both the Iranian militias that surround him and being a meek and compliant neighbour to Israel.

What will Israel's war on Gaza mean for Syria?

Analysis

Samuel Ramani

What happens if one component in this equation is removed? In this case, the former, as some analysts predict the demise of the Axis of Resistance as Israel reaps the lives of their seemingly imperishable leadership, including Hamas's Ismail Haniyeh, Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah (and his successor), and Iranian Quds Force deputy Abbas Nilforoushan.

Bente Scheller, author of 'The Wisdom of Syria’s Waiting Game' and head of the Middle East Division at the Heinrich Boell Foundation, believes possible long-standing tensions within the Axis of Resistance, dating back to the Syria war, are probably not helped by Assad's reticence during this crisis moment for the Iran-led alliance.

"Hezbollah was, absolutely, essential for Assad’s political survival, they were the best-organised militia that came in to help him with the ground offensive against the rebels during the Syria war," Scheller told The New Arab.

"From their side, I think Hezbollah were a little annoyed by the Syrian army because their fighters would go into battle and capture rebel towns, then Syrian soldiers would enter, loot and misbehave. For Assad, he would never have made it with his own troops - without Hezbollah he could not have achieved what he did."

This appears apparent in the country’s southwestern Quneitra province, where Israeli forces have reportedly encroached deeper into Syrian territory over the past week under the guise of the Sufa 53 road project.

The Assad regime has neither confronted the invasion party nor acknowledged any losses to Israel, instead diverting Syrian troops to the frontlines in Idlib province around 400km to the north, ready for a new offensive against the rebels.


Assad’s current opportunism and past reluctance to take back Syrian refugees from Lebanon, a key domestic issue for Hezbollah, will be a difficult pill for the party's supporters to swallow, as its fighters stand alone against an Israeli invasion force in southern Lebanon without a single shot being fired by the Syrian army in support.

"Hezbollah has done their duty for Assad and now he is safe enough to say 'they were useful then but we don’t need to reward them now'," Scheller added.

"In the past two weeks, Assad has clearly not raised his voice for Hezbollah or done anything to protect them, so I think they will be reconsidering what they did for him and why there has been absolutely no response whatsoever from Damascus."

Hezbollah's role in Syria's war was essential to the Assad regime's survival. [Getty/File]

Israel has used the window of opportunity to remind Assad of its omnipotence and his impotence, with a sharp rise in airstrikes on Iran-linked entities across Syria, the Syrian Network for Human Rights monitor has confirmed, increasingly in urban areas with mounting civilian casualties.

This ultimately underlines the regime’s inability to protect its own citizens from external attack, despite the vast sums spent on the military over the decade.

The decision of the regime to prioritise the military during the 'guns or butter' considerations of 2011 onwards likely contributed heavily to Syria's continued economic malaise, yet Syrian air defences appear unable or under orders not to engage Israeli aircraft entering Syria, while the army is in no position to challenge the Israeli invasion force in the occupied Golan Heights.

One unprecedented Israeli airstrike in Mezzeh, Damascus, on 8 October, happened just a short distance from the presidential palace, killing seven civilians including four children. As if to add insult to injury it appears the rockets were fired from Israeli-occupied Syrian land in the Golan.

Is a regional war between Israel and Iran inevitable?

Analysis

Giorgio Cafiero

This massacre and Israel’s assaults on Gaza and Lebanon triggered a small pro-regime rally in Damascus in solidarity with Hezbollah with calls for strikes on Tel Aviv. This is a request that Assad, of course, is unlikely to oblige - after all, unlike the rebels, Israel has an air force, GPS coordinates, and laser-guided missiles.

Despite enduring repeated Israeli blows in recent weeks, Hezbollah remains a somewhat effective fighting force, as Sunday’s drone strike on an Israeli military base demonstrated.

The Syrian regime, on the other hand, appears as vulnerable as ever, with Assad likely aware that any open defiance to Israeli belligerence will result in his own demise, said Karam Shaar, director of Karam Shaar Advisory Limited and a Syria researcher.

"He has to tow a very difficult line, balancing his relationship with the Iranians - which means giving them access to Syrian land and facilitating weapon shipments to Hezbollah - and knowing full well that an attack by Israel could come at any moment, if he helps the Iranians in any major way," Shaar told The New Arab.

"I genuinely think Bashar Al-Assad wakes up every morning touching his neck to check it's still attached to his shoulder, he is fully aware that these are incredibly difficult times for his regime."

While Assad has managed to successfully triangulate between Russia, Iran, and regional powers over the past decade, a failure to live up to promises to Arab states - such as ending the captagon trade or creating the conditions for the safe return of refugees - and strict US sanctions leave him untrusted and isolated.

Assad's illusion of power hinges on both the Iranian militias that surround him and being a meek and compliant neighbour to Israel. [Getty/File]

Yet despite the huge sacrifices and assistance Iran has made to keep Assad in power, he has worked hard to ensure the Syrian regime is not a pawn of Tehran, and as recent events have shown, he will likely maintain this distance from his allies.

"The Iranians have strong leverage over Assad, but it is not a master-slave relationship, he does have some wiggle room," said Shaar.

What could have more profound implications for Assad’s future is the US election, said Shaar. A Harris administration will likely be a continuation of Washington’s current Syria policy, based on the effectively defunct UN Resolution 2254, while the return of Donald Trump to the White House in January could see him join Benjamin Netanyahu in attempting to strangle Iran into submission.

"A Trump administration would be much more forceful than Biden's, however, I think it also means much more uncertainty due to his erratic behaviour," said Shaar.

"So if you ask me, under which administration things would get completely out of control and spill out into a regional conflict, I would have to say Trump’s."

This grim irony will not be lost on Syrians - after enduring 13 years of unhinged violence by the Assad regime and its allies with complete impunity, 'Syria' has become a textbook for how regional parties can deal with their opponents.

Starvation sieges, double tap strikes, the targeting of hospitals, and the mass torture of civilians were widespread across Syria from 2011 to today, and now appear to be an essential part of Israeli tactics in Gaza and Lebanon, too.


Israel faces little impulsion from the world to limit its actions and when it does, uses the same pretences as Assad - it's the ‘terrorists’ embedded within the civilian population who are to blame, so everywhere in Gaza is fair game.

Paul McLoughlin is a senior news editor at The New Arab.

A Reflection On Venezuela

By Boaventura de Sousa Santos

August 2, 2024

Source: Originally published by Z. Feel free to share widely.



Boaventura de Sousa Santos

A reflection on Venezuela

I am not, nor have I ever been, a staunch Chavista. Hugo Chavez was a benevolent political meteorite who shook the Latin American sub-continent and the world in the first decade of the 21st century. In 2013, shortly after Hugo Chavez’s death, I wrote a piece entitled “Hugo Chavez: the legacy and the challenges”. I identified some signs of authoritarianism and bureaucratization and ended the text with the following sentence: “Without external interference, I am sure that Venezuela would know how to find a non-violent and democratic solution. Unfortunately, what is happening is that all means are being used to turn the poor against Chavismo, the social base of the Bolivarian revolution and those who have benefited most from it. And, at the same time, to provoke a rupture in the Armed Forces and a consequent military coup to oust Maduro. Europe’s foreign policy (if it can be called that) could be a moderating force if it hadn’t lost its soul in the meantime.”[i] I have to admit that my fear has not been realized to date, although there has been no shortage of attempts to make it happen. I believe that the current moment is yet another such attempt. Hence the importance of reflecting on the clamor in the Western media about the possibility of fraud in the recent elections in Venezuela and the consensus on the right and left about the need to audit the results. This perplexes me greatly and forces me to reflect.

1. The Venezuelan electoral system has been unanimously considered one of the most secure and protected against fraud. It requires four stages of identification: registration on the electoral roll, electronic voting, paper ballot extraction, and the voter’s fingerprint. The numbers must match. Of course, no electoral system is completely immune to fraud, but when we compare it to the electoral systems of other countries (such as the US or Portugal), the Venezuelan system is more secure. Why is it so obvious to so many people that there may have been fraud?

2. The opposition had been announcing that it would only recognize the results if it won the elections. In this respect, it was following a practice that is becoming widespread among far-right forces running for election (Trump in 2020, Bolsonaro in 2022, Milei in 2023). This should call for some caution on the part of democratic forces, lest their insistence on auditing serve as a crutch for political forces that, supposedly in the name of democracy, want to destroy it.

3. Outside of Venezuela, the most vociferous forces in defense of Venezuelan democracy are far-right political forces that in their own countries have advocated or practiced coups d’état and electoral fraud. In Brazil, with the active collaboration of the US, Jair Bolsonaro and the political and military forces that supported him were the protagonists of the most clamorous electoral fraud of the last decade. They managed to disable and put in prison for more than 500 days the candidate who would certainly have won the elections, Lula da Silva; they easily manipulated the media and the courts; and the 2018 election was declared valid internationally without any reservations. This shows that the media-political clamor about the possibility of fraud and the need to verify the results is not based, contrary to what it seems, on a deep-rooted love of democracy, but rather on other reasons, which I’ll explain below.

4. The double standards go far beyond the far-right forces and the primitivism of their considerations. European countries, which pride themselves on being impeccable democracies, were almost unanimous in recognizing as the legitimate president of Venezuela a suit who had proclaimed himself president in a square in Caracas. I’m referring to Mr. Juan Guaidó, on 23 January 2019. How can it be explained that, in this case, no care was taken to verify the democratic processes? It’s all the more shocking when we compare this apparent negligence with the zeal of now, regarding an election that had more than 900 observers from almost 100 countries? Incidentally, in an aside that adds to the perplexity, one wonders why it is only in a few countries that it is so crucial to use external observers to give credibility to electoral processes. If the possibility of fraud always exists, the need for observers should be universal and supervised by the UN.

5. I don’t dispute the reasons for Maria Corina Machado’s disqualification (it is well known that she took part in several coup attempts against the Bolivarian government and even called for foreign military intervention), but the choice of her replacement, former diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, is quite perplexing. There is something disturbingly caricatured about the Venezuelan opposition. First, it was Juan Guaidó; now it’s a gentleman who looked like he’d just left a nursing home for a leisure activity that happened to be a presidential candidacy. I only mention this because Edmundo Gonzalez’s hands may eventually be stained with blood. Between 1981 and 1983 Edmundo Gonzalez was the first secretary of the Venezuelan Embassy in El Salvador, whose ambassador was Leopoldo Castillo, known as Matacuras (priest killer). At the time, the Condor Plan for counter-insurgency, promoted by Ronald Reagan, was being implemented in that country with the aim of preventing the advance of the revolutionary forces of the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN). This plan included the execution of Operation Centaur, which involved the army and death squads and aimed to assassinate revolutionaries and, in particular, members of religious communities based on liberation theology. A total of 13,194 people were murdered, including Don Oscar Romero, now a saint in the Catholic Church, four Maryknoll nuns and five priests. According to CIA data declassified in 2009, Leopoldo Castillo appears to be co-responsible for the coordination and execution of Operation Centaur. Edmundo Gonzalez was the first secretary of the Venezuelan Embassy. The crimes committed are crimes against humanity and as such are imprescriptible.[ii]

Why all the clamor about possible electoral fraud?

The short answer to this question is this: Venezuela is the only country in Latin America where two fundamental resources are not controlled by the US: the armed forces and natural resources (the largest reserves of oil, rare earths, gold, iron, etc.). Throughout the 20th century, the US repeatedly intervened in Venezuela’s elections with the aim of guaranteeing its access to natural resources. They have always done so with the help of a very small number of oligarchic families, some of whom have controlled the country’s wealth since the 16th century and the days of the encomiendas. Maria Corina Machado belongs to one of these families. Her electoral program is very similar to Javier Milei’s and she has already pledged in an interview that, if she were president, she would move the Venezuelan Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. It’s a far-right program that has been supported by the US and, lately, by the oligarch of oligarchs, Elon Musk.

Because it doesn’t control the two resources I mentioned, the US has used the two strategies at its disposal (in addition to electoral interference and support for the opposition): participation in coups d’état, which may or may not include assassination attempts on the leaders to be taken down; and economic sanctions. At the moment, Venezuela is being punished with 930 sanctions that have been imposed for almost two decades. The sanctions have caused the abrupt impoverishment of Venezuela and have been responsible for thousands of deaths due to the lack of essential life-saving medicines (for example, for a period, insulin). This abrupt impoverishment led to the suspension of many of the government’s redistributive policies and, ultimately, to emigration. More than seven million people.

There’s no doubt that a country with so many millions of citizens forced to emigrate can’t be doing well. And it’s understandable that many of these emigrants see the defeat of Nicolas Maduro as an end to the sanctions and their hope of returning. In this context, two thoughts come to mind. The first is that Maduro has liberalized the economy in recent years, adopting some measures that can hardly be considered socialist or even left-wing. Many deals are being signed with large US and European companies, in the oil sector and beyond. Today, the Venezuelan economy is one of the fastest-growing in Latin America, but obviously this comes after brutal impoverishment. How far this new (Chinese-inspired?) economic model can succeed is an open question.

The second thought is that, if we look at the international panorama of migration and refugees, Venezuela is the only case where the media attention is centered on the country from which the displaced people are leaving. In all other cases, attention is centered on the “receiving” countries (which often includes deportation). Once again, the reason seems to be this: the policy of destabilization and demonization of the Bolivarian government and the creation of a consensus to activate the third US weapon: the infamous regime change. In fact, I think that the social unrest currently underway is aimed at creating a Maidan Revolution ten years later. I’m referring to the social unrest in Ukraine in 2014 that led to the flight of the democratically elected president, Victor Yanukovych, and, shortly afterwards, to the election of Volodymyr Zelensky. The reason why a “color revolution” is unlikely to take place in Venezuela is that the US has no Venezuelan military trained at the School of the Americas, where so many coups have been forged. The Venezuelan Armed Forces have already recognized the election results.

But there will certainly be more attempts in the future, especially since Venezuela has three major allies: China, Russia and Iran, three enemies of the US. The first two are original members of the BRICS and the third will soon join them. This means that, although the discursive façade is about electoral fraud and democracy, what is at stake is the geopolitical turmoil that Maduro’s victory is causing. This should make the leaders of Latin American countries think, especially Brazil. Sooner or later, Brazil will have to decide which side it is on in the new global geopolitical and geostrategic horizon that is underway. I understand the caution because, after all, the US recently interfered brutally in Brazil’s domestic politics. But on the other hand, only by defending the sovereignty of other countries will Brazil, or any other country, be able to effectively defend its own sovereignty when the imperial storm hits. In any case, it’s better to act collectively than individually. The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) needs to be more active now that the Union of Latin American Nations (UNASUR) has disappeared.

[i] Pneumatóforo. Escritos políticos, 1981-2018. Coimbra: Almedina, 2018, p. 165-175.

[ii] May be consulted in: 

https://nlginternational.org/2024/07/national-lawyers-guild-report-election-monitoring-delegation-to-the-bolivarian-republic-of-venezuela/; https://www.elperiodista.cl/2024/07/vinculan-a-candidato-opositor-en-venezuela-con-asesinatos-de-religiosos-en-el-salvador/

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Boaventura de Sousa Santos

Boaventura de Sousa Santos is the emeritus professor of sociology at the University of Coimbra in Portugal. His most recent book is Decolonizing the University: The Challenge of Deep Cognitive Justice.

Venezuela: An Attempted Coup By Any Other Name

by Maria Paez Victor

August 2, 2024



Image by Planet Volumes.

“We will coup whoever we want! Deal with it.

Elon Musk, 25 July 2020, Twitter

Once again, as in 2002, Venezuela has been the victim of a combined media and diplomatic coup attempt, but this time with the added element of organized crime and a cyber-attack.

Millions of eligible voters cast their electronic ballots before the presence of more than 635 international witnesses including electoral experts of the United Nations, the African Union, and electoral staff of 65 countries. How many international witnesses are allowed for the USA or Canadian elections? None.

Nicolás Maduro was re-elected with 51.2% of votes (5,150,092 votes), and the far-right candidate Edmundo González lost with 44.2% of votes (4,445,978 votes). The other 8 opposition leaders received 4.6% of the total votes cast. This is the statistically irreversible results given out by the constitutional Electoral Authority (CNE) on election day, 28 July 2024, having examined and audited 80% of the votes. These results were audited 16 times.

However, the rest of the 20% votes have not yet (at the writing of this article) been released because of a massive cyber-attack. The elements of the electronic system that transmit the results to the central point was hacked over a hundred times in a most sophisticated manner that was traced to North Macedonia.

The Attorney General, Tarek William Saab, named as responsible for this cyber-attack: Lester Toledo, Leopoldo López, and M. Corina Machado. Furthermore, President Maduro implicated Elon Musk, considering him a far-right fanatic who has the technology to pull an attack like this and has many times denigrated Venezuela. It is alleged that Musk supported the supposed “humanitarian” invasion of Venezuela through Colombia in 2019. He famously said “We will coup whoever we want! Deal with it.” Musk must desire Venezuela’s lithium, apart its oil and gold.

Ironically, in the USA there is no constitutional or other law that demands that election results be declared on Election Day. In fact, in that supposed beacon of democracy, for much of the 19th Century it took days if not weeks to the winner to be declared.”[1] And much more recently:

* In 2000, Bush won the presidency over Al Gore with only 537 votes; there was a delay of 37 days before the results were released and was ultimately decided by the US Supreme Court.

* In 2021, Biden won over Trump with 51.3% of votes, (almost exactly as Maduro has won now), Trump obtaining 46.8%. There was a delay of 4 days before the final results were given out and only certified by the Electoral College after 33 days. Trump launched 63 lawsuits contesting the results[2] and still insists they were bogus.

Yet today, like a pack of vicious hyenas, the fascist far right – and not so far right – nations and NGOs are howling for Venezuela to release the detailed results immediately. The implication being that there is some sort of fraud or hidden trick. They DEMAND that the Electoral Authority (CNE) release the remaining votes, which the world should know are not little pieces of paper in a cardboard box. In Venezuela the vote is done electronically, the paper trail is only an added security measure to show that someone has duly voted.

President Maduro has formally asked the Venezuelan Supreme Court to settle any discrepancy about the vote, just as George Bush asked of the US Supreme Court in 2020.

Many of us who analyze the Venezuelan situation predicted it earlier: the far right, fascist group led by M. Corina Machado and her puppet candidate in Edmundo Gonzalez, had no electoral intention. Clue: unlike other candidates from the opposition, they refused to sign the agreement among candidates to respect the results and reject any violence after the results came in. Because that is exactly what they planned. Even before the results were in Machado was telling her formidable social media networks that Gonzalez had overwhelmingly won the election.

We wondered why Machado insisted on travelling the country to campaign. Now the Attorney General has found out why: under the cover of campaigning, she was paying off bands of real criminals she grouped in what she called “comanditos’ (little commands). These were common criminals trained in Colombia, with the help of the Colombian narco ex-presidents of Alvaro Uribe and Duque, and gangs of organized crime, who were paid up to $150 a day to burst on to the scene the day after the elections. There was a clear plan with strategic targets laid out for every “comandito”. It was also discovered that a great number of them were trained terrorists who arrived in Venezuela under the cover of Venezuelans migrants who were returned by plane from the USA.

Images have been flashed these past few days around the world of individuals setting fires and burning tires who are portrayed invariably as “the people” rejecting the fraud of the elections. In fact, “the people”, whether Chavistas or opposers, peaceful people in the great majority, were snug in their homes, having nothing to do with this terrorism. What did these supposed freedom fighters do? They looted, burned and destroyed, stores, schools, clinic, food warehouses, plazas, electricity plants, PSUV headquarters, police stations, water plants, and destroyed statues.

They injured 77 members of the police and armed forces, killing one officer by a bullet to his neck, not to mention the many social leaders dragged out of their homes and assaulted. In each area they had lists of the social community leaders identified with Bolivarianism, attacked and set fire to their houses and physically beat them up, women included, threatening to kill them and anyone in the town that supported the government. The government has set a special fund to help these victims.

These criminals had a specific plan. They were trained, armed, and received part of their pay in drugs. The blood tests done on every one of those caught show the presence of drugs. In certain areas they combined with organized bands of narco-paramilitary. The overall plan was to knock out the electricity supply to 10 states, create chaos, attack and march to Miraflores (the main government house) and capture or kill the president and prepare the way for foreign intervention.

How do we know all this? Firstly, because the terrorists are being rounded up, alive, without killing any one of them and they are talking. The terrorists aren’t fighting for any ideology or democracy, they are craven cowards that assault defenseless people, but when caught, fall on their knees crying and telling everything they know to the authorities. And because today:

* There are security cameras everywhere, and it seems everybody has a phone camera to catch their horrible deeds.

* There is a real Attorney General, not a vile traitor as before.

* There are now anti-terrorist laws that were previously missing to enable such violence to be dealt with through the courts.

There is a great difference today from the street violence of 2015 y 2017, “guarimbas” images of which were flashed around the world to convey that Venezuela was in chaos and should be “intervened”. At that time, Venezuelans watched disgusted and astounded as the violent criminals were never arrested for assaults, arson and deaths. The then Attorney General, Luisa Ortega, who spent years destroying the institution, gave strict orders that these street criminals were not to be arrested because they were “exercising their democratic right”. It turned out she was a mercenary traitor piling up millions of dollars the CIA gave her and is now living in great luxury in the USA where she fled when her crimes were discovered.

Following these events the National Assembly passed modern anti-terrorist laws that now include these heinous crimes against the peace, which the Constitution did not have when it was first written in 1999. Now there will be no impunity; so far there are 1,062 arrested who will go to trial. They are confessing readily with practically no promptings. It is to the great credit of the Venezuelan police and military that they have not caught these terrorists by shooting them – as it might happen in other countries which will remain nameless. No bodies, no dead terrorists: all captured alive up to now.

What would the governments of the USA, Canada or Europe do if bands of armed people set fires, assaulted and shot officials and members of the public, and terrorised their towns and cities? For sure they would be caught in a heartbeat and could very well end up being shot on sight.

President Maduro has said: we have seen this film before. The Bolivarian government under Chávez and Maduro has had since 1999, had 31 elections, and always the extreme right opposition has yelled fraud. That is, they recognize the elections when they have gained places in the National Assembly, state governments and mayoralties. Very convenient: if they win, the elections are legitimate, if they lose, they are a fraud. This has happened over and over again but the international media never seem to pick up on this or do not want to.

We are in the presence of an attempt of the international fascist far right and the CIA to overthrow the government of Venezuela with a massive disinformation and denigration campaign to justify illegal sanctions and foreign intervention in the country.

The checkered past and crimes of Machado, poster girl of the far right, is never mentioned, her involvement in coups, her promotion of street violence in the past, her asking the USA for sanctions and military invasion against Venezuela, and right now, her collaboration with criminal gangs and narco-paramilitary groups are never mentioned. Her puppet, Edmundo González, was involved in the logistics and financing of the death squads in El Salvador’s civil war. Their hands are tainted with blood.

But this is another universe from the one in 2015 and 2017. Venezuela is strong and prepared. Its economy has diversified and grown, despite the sanctions. It no longer depends exclusively on the US oil market – the whole world wants its oil. Even the USA needs Venezuelan oil for its refineries in Louisiana and Texas to keep the price of gasoline down in a crucial presidential election year.

The spectre that arises for the for the West is that their chickens have come home to roost: after decades of denigrating and harming Venezuela with a vicious hybrid war, Venezuela has turned to the East for its friends and allies. Russia and China have stood by Venezuela and its electoral process; Turkey, Iran, India, OPEC, and soon the Non-Aligned nations will also rally to its side as it is made clear that the purpose of the far right was not to win an election but to provoke a coup. And the “piéce de resistance” is that the BRIC, considering Venezuela a strategic partner, is poised to welcome it as a full member. This will open many more opportunities for Venezuelan development than Europe, the USA and Canada have done and who have treated Venezuela so badly for so long.

Let us rejoice in the triumph of the Venezuelan people and may they live in peace, secure in their own sovereignty.

NOTES

1. CNN, “Why the delayed election results prove the system is adequately working”, 4 Nov. 2020 ↑

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election ↑

An Attack on Venezuela’s Democracy

By Leonardo Flores

August 1, 2024

Source: Venezuela Solidarity Network



A massive cyberattack, a global disinformation campaign and armed gangs are key elements in an attempted coup in Venezuela following presidential elections on July 28. The results of those elections, in which 10 candidates competed, saw President Maduro win 51.2% of the vote against opposition leader Edmundo González’s 44.2%, with 80% of the vote counted. The remaining eight candidates combined for 4.6%, in a vote that has become controversial for all the wrong reasons. González and his far-right allies rejected the results and alleged fraud.

For months, the Venezuelan government has been denouncing the far-right’s strategy for these elections: use friendly pollsters to disseminate wildly inaccurate polls, favoring Gónzalez; denounce the elections before they were held; denounce the results before they were announced; and lead violent street protests similar to those of 2014 and 2017 (guarimbas).

As predicted, the far-right forced a narrative of fraud into social and traditional media, while armed gangs and paramilitary actors sowed terror in the days following the election, attacking public institutions, security forces and innocent bystanders. Chavismo responded with a massive rally in Caracas to support the electoral results and oppose the violence.

Although tensions remain, the government appears to have snuffed out the coup. The situation is complicated by the fact that Venezuela’s National Electoral Council (an independent branch of government solely responsible for elections) was hit by a massive cyberattack the night of the elections, that continues to affect its website as of July 31.

Venezuela’s Electoral Process and a Cyberattack

Anyone familiar with Venezuela’s electoral process would know to be skeptical about allegations of fraud in the vote count. This process, the same one lauded as the “best in the world” by Jimmy Carter twelve years ago, is renowned for its safety and transparency. This two-minute video by Venezuelanalysis is one of the best explainers of why fraud is nearly impossible.

The CNE is led by a council of five rectors; currently, three are aligned with the government, while two are aligned with the opposition. If there was widespread fraud, why have the opposition members of the CNE stayed silent?

Key to understanding the claims of fraud is that once polls close, the voting machines print out the local results (actas) before transmitting them to CNE headquarters for a complete digital tally. Copies of the actas are given to witnesses from any political party present at each precinct.

Prior to the election, eight candidates – including President Maduro – signed a pact with the CNE agreeing to respect the results. González refused to do so and his party said it would not abide by the CNE results, but rather would solely recognize their own actas. The only way to ensure that a picture or scan of an acta is real is to compare it to actas published by other political parties and the CNE’s localized results.

This is impeded by the cyberattack on the CNE. According to a CNE technician, the hack could not alter the vote count, but delayed the transmission of the results. This meant that the CNE published its first report on results later than expected, and delayed the publication of its actas, which in other elections appeared on its website within a day or so of the vote.

This delay was crucial in allowing the opposition to frame the elections as irregular and fraudulent. The New York Times published an analysis of the opposition’s alleged actas, in an effort to lend credence to their claims of fraud. However, at the moment there is no reason to believe those actas are real, and every reason to believe that the far-right opposition is lying about the results. They cried fraud in the 2004, 2013, 2017, 2018 and 2023 elections, without presenting credible evidence. No actual evidence has been presented to bolster their claims.

Disinformation Campaign

In the months prior to the elections, pollsters with links to the opposition claimed González had a huge lead. These pollsters have a history of bias in favor of the opposition. In the 2018 presidential elections, they were wrong by an average of 26 percentage points.

On election day, the opposition widely disseminated an exit poll by a U.S. funded firm with links to the CIA. Exit polls have been banned in Venezuela after they were used to destabilize the country following the 2004 referendum. This poll was cited by mainstream media, far-right operatives and political figures as “proof” that the CNE’s results were fraudulent. Note that a different exit poll by Hinterlaces, a firm seen as friendly to the Venezuelan government, came much closer to predicting the results.

As of July 31, the opposition claimed to have more than 81% of the actas, giving González a 67% to 30% victory over Maduro. They uploaded their alleged actas onto a slick website, further demonstrating that this was a coup long in the making. For its part, the pro Maduro coalition planned to release its actas on July 31.

The opposition figures fed a narrative of a landslide González victory and outright fraud committed by the Maduro government. This led to a social media campaign featuring the use of a major bot network and AI that amplified claims of fraud and engaged in making fake news go viral. Among those complicit in spreading disinformation were Elon Musk – whose own social media platform put disclaimers on several of his posts – and Argentine President Milei, who called for a coup in Venezuela.

The barrage of disinformation and fake news about the results set the stage for the next phase of the attempted coup: violence committed by fascistic paramilitary groups and armed gangs.

Violence and Armed Gangs

In the late hours of the 28th, opposition protesters were called to the streets by their far-right leaders. While some protests were peaceful, others were not; disinformation in social media disinformation painted a chaotic picture of Venezuela in which average citizens were being brutalized by security forces.

There are too many social media examples to choose from, but I will note two:A right-wing operative claimed a police officer pointed a gun at a woman and her child. Video of the incident shows him urging them to leave the area with his arms.
A man on the street wails for the death of his friend and blames police for his murder, as his friend lies on the ground next to him, “blood” on the street. Video of the incident then shows the man alive and well, seated behind his friend on a motorcycle; the “blood” remains on the street next to the front wheel.

Several great threads are documenting some of the more egregious examples, including the one at this link.

On the day after the election, Venezuela experienced violence as paramilitary groups and armed gangs burned buildings, sacked and looted a regional CNE headquarters, blocked roads, attacked police and military, beat up people who looked “chavista”, attempted to attack a hospital, burned a community radio station and school, tore down statues of Chávez and Indigenous leaders, attacked local community leaders, military installations and food distribution centers, among others.

It is unclear how many people were killed as a result of this wave of violence.

Capture gang members claim to have received $150 to participate in “Maria Corina Machado’s activities in Caracas” (roughly at minute 31:40 in the link), including claiming fraud on July 28, and take to the streets on July 29 to cause damage and disturbances, leading to a “bloodbath.” Note that prior to the elections Maduro was widely condemned in corporate media for suggesting there would be a bloodbath if the far-right attempted to seize power.

The Venezuelan government reports that some of the violent actors were caught with Captagon, a stimulant used by mercenaries and terrorists throughout the world to maintain focus.

Maduro made even more serious claims about the U.S. role in the attempted coup. In a meeting of the Council of State, he said the perpetrators of violence “entered [Venezuela] on planes we allowed the United States to bring migrants on. It was an operation of trickery in U.S. imperial diplomacy.” (As part of dialogue over the past year between the two countries, Venezuela allowed deportation flights from the U.S.)

President Maduro also noted that the violence was “financed by the United States and Colombian narcotrafficking.” Prior to the elections Colombian paramilitaries reported being approached by the far-right to carry out attacks in Venezuela. Moreover, last month opposition figure Carlos Prosperi said that right-wing operatives and politicians were getting up to $9,000 a month from funds stolen from the Venezuelan state by the U.S. government.

As of July 31, the violence has mostly ended but the disinformation campaign continues.

Why Maduro Won and the Far-Right Lost

Central to the idea of the disinformation campaign is the idea that Maduro could not possibly have won. A key element of this narrative has been the decades-long, systematic attempt to make chavistas invisible – to pretend that the biggest political force in the country simply does not exist.

Corporate media rarely shows us the massive demonstrations in support of the government prior to and after the elections. Western think tanks never analyze the depth of organization throughout the different layers of chavismo and the interactions between these layers that not only creates a formidable machine to get out the vote, but also to mobilize on the streets in moments of crisis (federal, state, municipal, political parties, communes and other expressions of people’s power).

This is one of the reasons that the opposition’s claim that Maduro only took 30% of the vote (3.2 million votes, per their figures) lacks credibility. In the 2018 presidential elections, Maduro won with 6.2 million votes. Since then, Venezuela has experienced: three and a half straight years of economic growth; inflation under control and at historically low levels; 96% of food consumed is now produced in the country; a huge boom in entrepreneurship; and an economy projected by the IMF to have among the highest growth in Latin America.

On top of that, social programs have been strengthened. The Great Housing Mission reached 5.1 million dignified public housing units delivered (assuming 3-4 people per household, that may be anywhere between 50-66% of the population). The local committees for supply and production (CLAP) continue to distribute discounted or free food to millions of families every month, which may well have prevented famine during the worst of U.S. sanctions.

The base of chavismo was energized and the PSUV itself has more than 5 million members. In fact, even the markets were betting on Maduro, as was Chevron, which inked another oil deal with the government in the run up to the election.

On the other side, the opposition ran a terrible campaign. Edmundo González was rarely on the campaign trail, and instead he was represented by his proxy Maria Corina Machado – the latest opposition figure to have Washington’s full blessing. Their plan to privatize everything from the oil industry to public housing did not resonate with a population deeply familiar with the neoliberal shock therapies of the 90s. Close ties to Argentina’s Milei and Israel, did not resonate amongst a population that is watching the economic disaster in Argentina and the genocide in Palestine.

Opposition leader Henrique Capriles – a two time presidential loser who continues to be a major player – characterized Gonzalez’s campaign as “the worst he’s ever seen.” Two opposition governors and nearly a dozen mayors flipped their support to Maduro in the days prior to the election. The aforementioned Prosperi, who actually participated in last year’s opposition primaries only to denounce them for widespread irregularities (primaries where Machado won a non-credible 92% of the vote), also flipped his support to Maduro. Why would opposition leaders do this if they believed a victory was within reach?

U.S. & International Response

The Maduro victory has been recognized by dozens of countries, including China, Russia, Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Honduras, and Qatar, among others, as well as multilateral organizations such as OPEC and Alba (Bolivarian Alliance for Our Americas). On the flip side, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay, Costa Rica and Peru, among others, refused to recognize the elections. Peru – which is led by de facto dictator Dina Boluarte – went so far as to recognize González as the president (Guaidó 2.0, as Maduro called it).

Brasil, Colombia and – to an extent – Mexico, are playing a strategic role of “wait and see,” defending Venezuela’s sovereignty to greater (Mexico) and lesser (Colombia) degrees. They appear to be positioning themselves in such a way to try to influence the Biden administration to moderate its response.

It is not surprising that the chaos in the U.S. executive branch has led to differing statements from Biden, Harris and Secretary of State Blinken. The first to pronounce herself was Harris, who tweeted on Sunday that the U.S. “will continue to work toward a more democratic… future” for Venezuela, remarks widely interpreted as admitting the far-right had lost. Blinken then expressed “serious concerns that the result announced does not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people.” However, on July 30 Biden, following a conversation with Brazilian President Lula, called for the release of voting data, stopping short of endorsing the fraud narrative.

Possible Consequences of the Attempted Coup

This division within the U.S. government points at a possible reason for the attempted coup: the poisoning of relations between the U.S. and Venezuela. Over the past year, the United States engaged in dialogue with Venezuela and partially softened oil sanctions, in exchange for certain “electoral guarantees.” The coup attempt will make it difficult for the Biden administration to continue its policy of easing the pressure off Venezuela. It will also materially benefit Machado and her allies, who will keep receiving Venezuelan funds held in U.S. accounts to continue their regime change endeavors.

In Venezuela, there is confidence that CNE results will match the ballot receipts, confirming the integrity of the election. Criminal elements are being captured, and military forces have repeatedly expressed their support for the Constitution and elections.

The coup appears to be over, though it would be shameful if it leads to a hardening or prolonging of sanctions. The real “irregularity” is the decade-long economic war Venezuelans have endured. They voted under threat of their lives being turned upside down again, of their family members dying of preventable conditions or leaving as economic refugees. Despite the threats, they rejected the far-right candidate and voted for peace. Hawks in Washington will do all they can to make them pay for their vote.

María Páez Victor, Ph.D. is a Venezuelan born sociologist living in Canada.

VENEZUELA

'According to the numbers of the Electoral institution, Maduro won with more than 51% of the vote'

Issued on: 03/08/2024 - 12:10

Video by:

Herminia FERNANDEZ

2024-08-03 11:34 'According to the numbers of the Electoral institution, Maduro won with more than 51% of the vote'

Revived TV drama breaks Iraq's taboos

Baghdad (AFP) – After a 27-year hiatus, an Iraqi TV programme banned by Saddam Hussein for its gritty depiction of life under sanctions has returned to portray drug lords thriving in the war-scarred country.


Issued on: 18/03/2024

Iraqi actors film scenes for a television series to be broadcast during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, when TV viewership traditionally peaks 

© AHMAD AL-RUBAYE / AFP

Television viewership in the Middle East traditionally peaks during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, when the faithful tune in to their favourite shows after breaking their daily fast at sunset.

This Ramadan, a revived "Wahiba's World" is one of several Iraqi shows focusing on social issues such as drug addiction, crime, divorce and unemployment.

It delves into "issues troubling our society as a consequence of war and chaos," the programme's director Samer Hikmat told AFP.

Iraqis have suffered through decades of turmoil since the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s and former dictator Saddam's invasion of Kuwait in 1990, which triggered harsh economic sanctions.

They were followed by a US-led invasion in 2003, civil war, sectarian violence and the jihadist proto-state of the Islamic State group, which was only defeated in late 2017.

The oil-rich country of 43 million, still recovering from those conflicts, is now plagued by endemic corruption and clientelism, a weak economy, poor public services and high unemployment.
'Drug-fuelled wealth'

Decades of instability have created "a class of people who have profited from the chaos," Hikmat said, pointing in particular at newly wealthy drug dealers.

"Young people fall victim to this dark path."

This Ramadan, several Iraqi shows focus on social issues including drug addiction and crime © AHMAD AL-RUBAYE / AFP

Iraq, traditionally mainly a transit country for drugs, has faced an explosion in narcotics use in recent years, mainly of the amphetamine-like stimulant captagon and crystal meth.

The first series of "Wahiba's World", released in 1997, told the story of Wahiba, a nurse who makes every effort to help her neighbours amid the crippling international sanctions that plunged many Iraqis into poverty and crime.

Seventeen minutes into the broadcast of the first episode, authorities banned the programme, fearing it could incite people against the regime.

A year later, the show received a regional prize and authorities allowed it to be aired, but only at midday, considered a dead time slot.

This year, the show began airing on the first day of Ramadan during prime time on the Iraqi local private channel UTV.

Several actors had died during the long hiatus, but many others reprised their roles. In the revival, Wahiba plays a supporting part to her granddaughter and namesake, a psychiatrist, as the main character.

Unemployment, divorce and child marriage are among other topics addressed in this year's series © AHMAD AL-RUBAYE / AFP

In a busy industrial area in Baghdad's centre, in the same garage where scenes from the first series were shot, director Hikmat filmed a segment in which drug lord Alaa threatens to behead a member of his gang.

Actor Zuhair Rashid, who portrays the drug dealer Alaa, said the programme showed the grim reality of "drug-fuelled wealth, its consequences and tragic endings".

- 'Sensitive issues' –

Despite these efforts, Iraq's worn-out entertainment industry is still far from gaining recognition in a region where Syrian and Egyptian programmes have long held the top spot.

After the rise of IS, Iraq's drama shows, which only air on local television, have focused chiefly on telling stories of the jihadists' brutal rule and the war to defeat them.

But critic Mehdi Abbas said there is a noticeable trend this Ramadan, with "the majority of this year's shows tackling issues that are a threat to society".

Another new show, titled "Nay" -- flute in Arabic -- addresses unemployment, especially among art students, and the growing gap between rich and poor.

Actress Suzanne Salehi, who stars in it, said the programme recounts the "yearning for an opportunity" of youth.

An Iraqi director supervises the filming of the Iraqi series 'Al-Waziriya' -- despite such efforts, Iraq's TV industry is still far from gaining regional recognition 

© AHMAD AL-RUBAYE / AFP

"Separation", another Iraqi show, is based on real divorce stories that writer Hassaballah Yehya followed in court, reflecting increasing break-up rates in the country.

It also tackles child marriage, which is not uncommon in Iraq, especially in rural areas. The legal age of marriage in Iraq is 18, but it can be lowered to 15 in cases of parental or judicial consent.

"People usually avoid sensitive issues," Yehya said, adding that "we're trying to break taboos."

© 2024 AFP

POSTMODERN NEO COLONIALISM

Under new general, Russia’s Wagner makes deeper inroads into Libya

Using a new avatar of the paramilitary group, Putin is strengthening Russia’s presence in the North African country.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (R) welcomes General Khalifa Haftar (L), commander in the Libyan National Army (LNA), during a meeting in Moscow, Russia [FILE: Sergei Karpukhin/Reuters]

By Simon Speakman Cordall
Published On 25 Feb 2024

With the gaze of much of the world fixed on the carnage unfolding in Gaza, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin continues to expand his country’s reach in Africa.

Russia, in the form of the private military contractor (PMC) Wagner, has been a growing presence in Libya since at least 2018, when the group was first reported to be training troops under renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar, leader of the Libyan National Army, forces belonging to the eastern of the country’s two parliaments.

But, following the death of Wagner’s founder and former Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin, after his failed coup in Russia last year, the fate of the paramilitary force in Libya and Africa seemed uncertain.

Russia operates several PMCs. However, none is said to be as close to the Kremlin or to have been deployed as extensively as that founded by Prigozhin. At little cost to the Kremlin, Wagner has gained Russia financial, military and political influence across swaths of Libya and Africa.

Given the stakes, the Kremlin was never likely to disband Wagner, despite its active rebellion last year. Instead, following Prigozhin’s much-predicted demise, his commercial and military interests were divided between Russia’s various intelligence services, a report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) released this week claims.

Like other PMCs, like the United States’ Constellis (formerly Blackwater), Wagner allowed its government to operate in overseas conflicts at arm’s length: projecting power while maintaining a degree of deniability. That distance also allows PMCs to operate outside the typical bounds of state warfare, engaging in campaigns of terror and disinformation in a way that conventional forces cannot.

Command of Wagner’s overseas presence has been assigned to Russia’s military intelligence (GRU), specifically General Andrei Averyanov. Through a series of intermediate PMCs like Convoy, established in Russian-occupied Crimea in 2022, and Redut, active in Ukraine, but established in 2008 to protect Russian commercial interests, maintaining legal deniability, Wagner’s Ukrainian operation is being retitled the Volunteer Corps, with other operations becoming the Expeditionary Corps.

That its ambition remained undimmed was evidenced by its initial instruction to build a fighting force across Africa of some 40,000 contractors – since reduced to 20,000 but far larger than its current footprint.

Some measure of General Averyanov’s intent can perhaps be gained from looking at past command of Unit 29155, the wing of Russian military intelligence reported to be responsible for overseeing foreign assassinations and destabilising European countries.
African dreams

Africa, one of the richest continents in terms of minerals and energy, is undergoing a “youth boom” that stands to change the demographics of the world.

Within Africa, Libya boasts the largest oil reserves and gold deposits estimated to rank among the world’s top 50. In addition, its geographic location, linking Niger, Chad and Sudan to North Africa and Europe, makes it of vital strategic importance.

Already Averyanov has been busy, travelling to meet with Field Marshall Haftar in September of last year, followed by trips to Mali, Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic (CAR) and Niger.

In all cases, the offer was largely the same: resources for security.

Only in Libya did that rubric break. Russia’s lucrative oil extraction plants operate under the auspices of Libya’s other, internationally recognised government in Tripoli, meaning Haftar and his allies, claimed by the US Department of Defence to include the United Arab Emirates, would have to pay for the Expeditionary Corps’ deployment themselves.

“Haftar needs Wagner,” Tarek Megerisi, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations said, using the better-known name for the group. “Furthermore, while he’s hosting them in Libya, [Wagner] can use its position to prop up operations in Syria, Sudan and elsewhere.

“It’s a network,” he continued, citing reports. “It’s not just military support, either. They’re using their position in eastern Libya to transport [illegal narcotic] Captagon from Syria, shift gold to evade sanctions, as well as help traffic migrants from southern Africa and as far away as Bangladesh.

“Libya is a hugely profitable area for Wagner,” he said.

Presence

By current estimates, the Expeditionary Corps is thought to have some 800 contractors deployed in Libya, with a further 4,600 dispersed across sub-Saharan Africa. In addition to its fighters, the Expeditionary Corps maintains three air bases – one in the oil basin of Sirte, one in al-Jufra in the interior, and one in Brak al-Shati – which analysts say allows both groups, (Haftar’s Libyan National Army and the PMC) to move goods between allies in Sudan and other sub-Saharan locations.

In addition to its presence on the ground, talks are under way to give Russian warships docking rights at the port of Tobruk in exchange for air defence systems and training for LNA pilots.

“The Central and Eastern Mediterranean is an incredibly important area for Europe and, by extension, NATO,” Ivan Klyszcz, an authority on Russian foreign policy at the International Centre for Defence and Security at Tallinn, said. “Russia already has a Mediterranean port at Tartous in Syria, a port at Tobruk would deepen that presence and potentially bring them into competition with Europe, not least the British, who maintain a large naval presence at Cyprus.”

That the Expeditionary Corps could increase its footfall to 20,000, referenced in the RUSI report and widely discussed by military bloggers, already appears to be within sight.

“That doesn’t sound unachievable, if you consider where they are now,” Jalel Harchaoui of RUSI said. “After all, we’re not talking about purely Russian recruitment, so much as ongoing recruitment across Africa,” he said, recalling Wagner’s transplanting of fighters from Syria to Libya in 2020.

“Eventually, what we may be seeing is a PMC where local troops from one African state can be deployed to another, where they’ll be free to operate to whatever rules they see fit. For instance, in one state, it could simply be a case of providing security to a head of government or a facility. In another, they may be called upon to resort to rape, torture and anti-personnel mines.

“The business model allows them to accomplish all of this, to build alliances … at little cost to what is, at the end of the day, Russia’s relatively small economy,” he said.
End game

However, while a significant player, Wagner is far from alone in a shifting and occasionally crowded Libyan battleground. In addition to the Tripoli-allied militias are the Turkish forces who allied with local commanders to counter and repel the Wagner-backed Haftar, when he attempted to take and hold the capital in 2020 and end the political deadlock in his favour.

Moreover, with Russia’s extensive investment in Libyan energy protected and governed by the Turks’ allies in Tripoli, there are no guarantees that Moscow’s alliance with Haftar may not also fall victim to the cold pragmatism that has been constant amid the chaos in Libya since its revolution.

“There is nothing to suggest that Russia is pledged to Haftar,” Klyszcz continued, “Haftar is important because of where he is, not who he is. It’s as much a marriage of convenience as it is anything else,” he said.

“Likewise with Turkey. There is nothing to suggest that the PMC can’t cooperate with Turkey, as they have in other parts of the world.

“You need to remember that Russia is engaged upon a global strategy with regional implications,” Klszcz said. “Putin’s intention is to create a multipolar world, with India and China all exerting power, rather than just the West as we have at present,” he said.

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA

Syria protests spurred by economic misery stir memories of the 2011 anti-government uprising



BEIRUT (AP) — Anti-government protests in southern Syria have stretched into a second week, with demonstrators waving the colorful flag of the minority Druze community, burning banners of President Bashar Assad's government and at one point raiding several offices of his ruling party.

The protests were initially driven by surging inflation and the war-torn country's spiraling economy but quickly shifted focus, with marchers calling for the fall of the Assad government.

The demonstrations have been centered in the government-controlled province of Sweida, the heartland of Syria’s Druze, who had largely stayed on the sidelines during the long-running conflict between Assad and those trying to topple him.

In a scene that once would have been unthinkable in the Druze stronghold, protesters kicked members of Assad’s Baath party out of some of their offices, welded the doors shut and spray-painted anti-government slogans on the walls.

The protests have rattled the Assad government, but don't seem to pose an existential threat. They come at a time when government forces have consolidated control over most of the country. Meanwhile, Damascus has returned to the Arab fold and restored ties with most governments in the region.

Still, anger is building, even among Syrians who did not join the initial anti-Assad protests in 2011. Those demonstrations were met with a harsh crackdown and plunged the country into years of civil war.

For some, the final straw came two weeks ago when the Syrian president further scaled back the country’s expensive fuel and gasoline subsidy program. Assad also doubled meager public sector wages and pensions, but those actions did little to cushion the blow, instead accelerating inflation and further weakening the already sinking Syrian pound. The results further piled on the economic pressure on millions living in poverty.

Soon after, protests kicked off in Sweida and the neighboring province of Daraa.

Over the past decade, Sweida had largely isolated itself from Syria’s uprising-turned-conflict. The province witnessed sporadic protests decrying corruption and the country’s economic backslide. This time, crowds quickly swelled into the hundreds, calling out political repression by Assad's government and stirring echoes of the protests that rocked the country in 2011.

“People have reached a point where they can no longer withstand the situation," Rayan Maarouf, editor-in-chief of the local activist media collective Suwayda24, told The Associated Press. “Everything is crumbling.”

While Assad’s political fortunes have been on the rise in recent months, life for much of the country’s population has become increasingly miserable. At least 300,000 civilians have been killed in the conflict, half of Syria’s prewar population of 23 million has been displaced and large parts of the infrastructure have been crippled. Ninety percent of Syrians live in poverty. Rampant corruption and Western-led sanctions have also worsened poverty and inflation.

In Daraa — often referred to as the birthplace of the 2011 uprising but now under government control — at least 57 people were arrested in the current protests, according to the Britain-based Syrian Network for Human Rights. Unlike in 2011, government forces did not use lethal force.

In Sweida, the response has been more restrained, with Assad apparently wary of exerting too much force against the Druze. During the years of civil war, his government presented itself as a defender of religious minorities against Islamist extremism.

Over the years, the province's young men also have armed themselves to defend their villages from Islamic State militants and Damascus-associated militias that produce and trade in illegal amphetamine pills, known as Captagon.

Joseph Daher, a Swiss-Syrian researcher and professor at the European University Institute in Florence, believes that this provides a layer of protection for protesters.

“Unlike other government-held areas, Sweida has some form of limited autonomy,” Daher said.

Meanwhile, in Damascus, Lattakia, Tartous and other urban government strongholds, some are voicing their discontent more quietly. They write messages of support for the protests on paper, take pictures of those notes on the streets of their towns, and share them on social media.

Others suffer in silence and focus on daily survival. In Damascus, some have taken to carrying backpacks instead of wallets to carry the wads of cash they need to make everyday purchases amid the rampant inflation, while families struggle to buy basic necessities.

“If I buy (my son) two containers of milk, I’d have spent my entire month’s salary,” Damascus resident Ghaswan al-Wadi told the AP while preparing her family dinner at home after a long day at work.

The ongoing protests highlight Assad's vulnerability as a result of the failing economy, even in areas that tried to withstand the situation and not hold large-scale protests against his rule.

Could the protests eventually threaten his rule?

Daher said this could only happen if the protesters banded together.

“You have forms of solidarity from other cities (with Sweida)," Daher said. “But you can’t say it would have a real effect on the regime, unless there would be collaboration between (protesters in) different cities.”

Kareem Chehayeb, The Associated Press

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for DRUZE 

'Nothing left to lose': Syrian protesters reigniting 'noble' revolution, seeking 'removal of regime'

Issued on: 30/08/2023 

04:19
Video by: Mark OWEN

Anti-government protests in southern Syria have stretched into a second week, with demonstrators waving the colorful flag of the minority Druze community, burning banners of President Bashar Assad's government and at one point raiding several offices of his ruling party. The protests were initially driven by surging inflation and the war-torn country's spiraling economy but quickly shifted focus, with marchers calling for the fall of the Assad government. For in--depth analysis and a deeper perspective on the demonstrators' rage and demand for change, FRANCE 24's Mark Owen is joined by Celine Kassem, Human rights activist and Media Executive for the Syrian Emergency Task Force.

Protests against Assad, economic crisis hit Druze city in Syria • FRANCE 24 

 

English Aug 25, 2023 

Hundreds of Syrians in the mainly Druze city of As-Suwayda took to the streets for a fifth consecutive day on Thursday, protesting at worsening economic conditions and demanding the departure of Syrian President Bashar al Assad. Mahmoud Naffakh, of France 24's Observers team, takes a closer look at the causes and consequences of these rare demonstrations against the Syrian authorities. 

'

Members of US Congress make a rare visit to opposition-held northwest Syria

ELLEN KNICKMEYER and ABBY SEWELL
Updated Sun, August 27, 2023



Rep. Scott Fitzgerald, R-Wis., speaks House Rules Committee prepares a measure for a floor vote at the Capitol in Washington, Monday, Dec. 5, 2022. Three U.S. Congress members, including Fitzgerald, made a brief visit to opposition-held northwest Syria on Sunday, Aug. 27, the first known trip to the war-torn country by American lawmakers in six years.
(AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)


BEIRUT (AP) — Three Republican members of the U.S. Congress made a quick trip Sunday into opposition-held northwest Syria in the first known visit to the war-torn country by American lawmakers in six years. They urged the Biden administration and regional partners to keep up the pressure on Syrian President Bashar Assad.

The roughly one-hour stop was a signal of the significant support on Capitol Hill for the opposition in Syria's long civil war.

U.S. Rep. French Hill of Arkansas, one of the three lawmakers, told The Associated Press by telephone after leaving Syria that the trip was the latest of his several to the region this summer to press the U.S. government and Arab allies to continue pushing for a political resolution to the war.

Hill said his message was in behalf of “those in Syria who want to have their own representative government."

The conflict began in 2011 after Assad launched a campaign to crush what began as a peaceful uprising against his family's autocratic rule. Assad has held on to power despite the uprising thanks in large part to the armed intervention by allies Russia and Iran. But the conflict has splintered the country, killed at least 300,000 civilians, and displaced half of Syria's prewar population of 23 million.

The trip comes at a time that Middle East leaders have begun restoring relations with Assad's government. By doing so, the Arab leaders are breaking sharply from the U.S., which is pushing to keep Assad isolated over government abuses that the United Nations says include repeated use of chemical weapons against Syrian civilians.

The U.N says 300,000 Syrian civilians died in the first 10 years of the conflict.

Hill and his fellow lawmakers, Ben Cline of Virginia and Scott Fitzgerald of Wisconsin, entered Syria early Sunday from Turkey via the Bab al-Salama crossing in northern Aleppo province.

They were greeted by orphans who attend Wisdom House, a school for orphans that is a project of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, a U.S.-based Syrian opposition organization that facilitated the lawmakers’ trip.

Hill’s constituents in Arkansas have been leading donors to the school. “It was an emotional day for me to see those children, holding up pictures of their parents who’d been murdered by Assad's regime, getting a hug and a kiss from them," he said.

The children were students at Wisdom House, a school for orphans that is a project of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, a U.S.-based Syrian opposition organization that facilitated the lawmakers’ trip. Hill's constituents in Arkansas have been leading donors to the school.

The lawmakers met with opposition and humanitarian leaders, including Raed Saleh, head of the White Helmets, a volunteer group of first responders known for extracting civilians from buildings flattened by bombing.

Saleh spoke with the lawmakers about the political status of the conflict in Syria and on continuing humanitarian efforts for victims of a earthquake earlier this year in Turkey and Syria, the White Helmets said on X, the site formerly known as Twitter.

Security concerns meant there was no public announcement of the trip beforehand. Hill spoke from neighboring Turkey, where the congressmen also held a series of meetings.

The last-known trip by a U.S. lawmaker to Syria was in 2017, when Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., visited U.S. forces stationed in northeast Syria’s Kurdish region. McCain had previously visited Syria and met with armed opposition fighters.

Also in 2017, U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii, visited Damascus, the capital, and met with Assad, a decision that was widely criticized at the time.

Since the beginning of the uprising-turned-civil-war in Syria, the U.S. government has backed the opposition and has imposed sanctions on Assad’s government and associates over human rights concerns. Washington has conditioned restoring relations with Damascus on progress toward a political solution to the 12-year conflict.

A growing number of Arab leaders are moving to end their own isolation of Assad, in line with arguments that engagement is the best way to address the flow of refugees, illegal drugs and other problems for the region from Syria. The 22-member Arab League recently reinstated Syria as a member after cutting ties earlier in the Syrian war.

Hill said he had engaged Middle East governments repeatedly over the past three months about “what are the ramifications of the Arab League’s admission of Syria back to the League and yet asking nothing” of Assad in return in terms of greater political freedoms and an end to rights abuses.

Hill also is pushing for the U.S. and Arab countries to press Assad harder on Syria's status as the world's leading global trafficker of Captagon, a highly addictive amphetamine.

Congress late last year passed a mandate for the U.S. to target Captagon smuggling in the Middle East, and President Joe Biden signed it into law.

Hill accused Biden of not doing enough to pressure Assad to adopt political reforms and stop the flow of that illegal drug, an important source of revenue for the Assad government.

"What I believe Syria needs, and the same thing the U.S. needs, is American leadership, Hill said.

Neither the State Department nor the White House had immediate comment on the Republican lawmakers' trip.

Control of northwest Syria is largely split between the Turkish-backed opposition groups and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a group that was originally founded as an offshoot of al-Qaida and is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States. In recent years, the group’s leadership have attempted to publicly distance themselves from their al-Qaida origins.

The Turkish-backed opposition groups have regularly clashed with Kurdish forces based in northeast Syria, who are allies of the United States in the fight against the Islamic State.

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Knickmeyer reported from Washington. Associated Press writer Omar Albam in Idlib, Syria contributed to this report.

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