Iran Is a Wake-Up Call for the Defense Establishment

by Ioannis Vlahos | Aug 6, 2026 | 

As the war in Iran has reached its fifth month, progress fails to be made and opposition continues to mount. And while President Donald Trump certainly deserves his fair share of the blame, the playbook he’s using is in no way his own.

Since the Cold War, the United States has become the preeminent world power, utilizing its heavily budgeted and expansive military to enforce its hegemony across the globe. During the later years of the 20th century especially, this has primarily taken the form of strategic bombing and overwhelming air power.

From the Gulf War to Iran, US defense leaders have made use of this strategy extensively, and besides serving as a destructive show of force, many claim it is the future of human warfare, and that high tech aircraft and weapons systems can and will be able to secure victory without deploying troops on the ground.

Dan Grazier, who is a Senior Fellow and Director of the National Security Reform Program at the Stimson Center, published a recent report disputing this very notion, claiming the limits of air power – which have been obvious in the current Iran war – are being largely ignored by the defense establishment in favor of plans for an expensive and high tech Air Force.

As such, DoD officials have been pushing extensively for new contracts and programs that aim to create next generation air power, featuring expensive fighters, stealth bombers, and various drone models. President Donald Trump launched the Iran War with this paradigm in mind, demonstrated by the ferocity of strikes carried out in the country by US and Israeli forces.

“But these plans, especially with regard to traditional methods, ignore hard-earned historical lessons. In some cases, proposals are based on historical myths and imagined outcomes,” Grazier said in his report, entitled “The Future of American Airpower.” “The force that will result from the current plans, even if the contractors manage to deliver aircraft that perform as promised, will not meet the nation’s security needs because the assumptions about warfare on which the plans are based are fundamentally wrong.”

The Iran War not only illustrated the defense establishment’s affinity for aerial bombardment, but it also greatly exposed the problematic nature of this framework as official DoD strategy.

Since the end of WW1, military theorists across the world have devised strategies that would supposedly  win wars using aircraft alone, with much of the emphasis placed on the role of bomber fleets and the wholesale destruction they wrought. These ideas were put to the test in a slew of conflicts during the 20th century, notably WW2 and the Gulf War, and given its destructive capabilities many began to hold air power as a military priority – which, according to Grazier, is a dangerous fallacy.

“Both of these much-touted examples of airpower failed completely. Allied soldiers stormed the beaches of Normandy on June 6, 1944. General Schwartzkopf resorted to ordering his forces to execute the famous ‘Left Hook’ that ended the Gulf War after 100 hours of fighting on the ground,” Grazier said in his report. “If either of these bombing campaigns worked as their designers intended, the enemy would have surrendered before any ground troops began to move.”

Grazier argues not only that current air power theory is rife with misconceptions, but that it is largely outdated and out of touch with 21st century warfare. “Today, there are many ways to deliver munitions to any point on the globe. With the advent of long-range rocket artillery, cruise and ballistic missiles, and uncrewed aircraft, the centrality and even relevance of manned strike fighters and bombers diminish by the day.”

“In the 21st century, there is no need for fleets of bombers to be escorted by swarms of fighters to fly over the enemy’s capital. Put another way, there is no longer a need to establish general theater air superiority.”

Besides the declining utility of traditional aircraft, Grazier also points out that the long held notions of air power theory touted by the defense establishment are both obsolete and risky. Especially in the past two decades, administrations have been increasingly starting and waging conflicts almost exclusively using airstrikes, which according to Grazier “lowers the threshold for war initiation, but does not deliver war conclusion.”

“This creates a potential dilemma for a politician,” says Grazier. If the airstrikes fail to deliver the promised results, an all-too-common occurrence, the politician then must decide to admit defeat or escalate the situation with other military means. Escalation may include deploying ground troops to achieve a political goal that was not originally deemed worthy of such a sacrifice.”

Grazier argues that the so-called “Normandy Threshold” should be the standard for foreign policy: if the potential conflict is not deemed dire enough to deploy ground forces, then no military action should be taken at all.

While the US military excels in destruction, it erroneously sets it as the metric for strategic success. The belief that simply bombing an enemy nation into oblivion will ensure victory has emboldened the defense establishment to launch and pursue wars with reckless abandon, leaving behind costly and unpopular failures in their wake.

The Iran War has exemplified this problem tremendously. Besides having the lowest popular support of any conflict in American history, over-reliance on air supremacy has achieved none of the war’s stated objectives. Iran continues to successfully withstand Israeli-American strikes while causing significant disruption to regional bases and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

“Because the US has no way of controlling outcomes on the ground, the Iranians will continue to put into power the people they want” Grazier tells Antiwar.com in an interview. “When those people realize the Americans aren’t crashing across the shore, the Iranian leaders almost certainly won’t give any significant concessions because they don’t have to. It would seem cowardly for them to do so because the United States isn’t willing to fully commit to the conflict.”

Notwithstanding the dubious motives for entering Iran, like Josef Stalin’s Winter War, the conflict has resulted in viral embarrassment for the United States military and has showcased its glaring weaknesses. Dr. Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, claims that depleted munitions, the vulnerability of forward bases and air defense equipment and the failure to completely eliminate Iranian missile fire has raised serious questions about the state of the US military and its effectiveness in future conflicts, especially one with China.

“The bottom line is that the Iran war has cast a spotlight on the flaws and weaknesses in U.S. military strategy, both in general and specifically as it pertains to contingencies in Asia” Kavanagh said in her article. “The United States has for decades assumed that its forward bases will be defensible and that power projection assets such as bombers, aircraft carriers, and fighter jets will allow the United States to prevail in military contests even far from home.”

“If these things were ever true, they are not anymore” she continues. “Money and time can fix munitions shortages in the medium term, but they cannot solve these more serious and, in many ways, intractable strategic shortcomings. In an increasingly multipolar world where access to military power has been democratized and the United States has a smaller advantage than in the past, what the United States can achieve with military force will be more limited. U.S. strategic aims and ambitions will need to adjust accordingly.”

Grazier plans to publish a report later this year detailing his proposed reforms, which would consist of reverting the military to its pre-1947 organization with the Army and the Navy. As for the Air Force, Grazier says that it “should be broken up into its useful parts by military function”; this essentially means delegating a reduced force of fighters and bombers to the Army Air Defense and Field Artillery branches, respectively. He also proposes integrating fixed-wing cargo aircraft into the Army’s Transportation Corps, whose logistics officers could then “integrate them into a cohesive operational concept.”

America’s military is not weak, but has to this day operated on strategies and ideas that have become ineffectual in modern warfare. Investing in the hottest and priciest tech doesn’t translate into battlefield success. Until it can reform and adapt for national defense, the military establishment may want to rethink waging wars that most Americans never wanted in the first place.

Ioannis Vlahos is an editorial assistant and writer for AntiWar.com. He studies history and journalism at George Mason University. Contact: ivlahos93@gmail.com.

Is Iran Preparing to Permanently Block the Strait of Hormuz?

By Tom Kool - Aug 07, 2026

Conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran keep oil markets on edge as Iran weighs a permanent Hormuz shipping ban while Trump insists a deal is within reach.

Friday, August 07, 2026

The oil market’s very own schizophrenia – trying to read into the contradicting claims of US President Trump and Iranian officials seeking to escalate the blockade of Hormuz even further – continues to puzzle industry analysts and traders. Iran’s Parliament is reviewing a bill to permanently ban US, Israeli and other hostile vessels from the Hormuz, backed up by a flurry of drone and missile strikes in the Strait, just as Trump claimed a final deal is ‘close’. ICE Brent is set to close the week at $83 per barrel.

Iran and Oman Draw the Lines Through Hormuz. Tehran and Muscat have agreed on the coordinates of a proposed shipping corridor giving Iran control over Gulf-bound vessels, but Iranian officials cautioned that key details remain unresolved, and the new deal alone would not guarantee security in the strait.

Aramco Splits Its September Pricing Strategy. Saudi national oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) cut its flagship grade Arab Light for Asia by 50 cents to a $2/barrel discount against Oman/Dubai but raised scarce Arab Medium and Heavy grades by $1.25/barrel, suggesting it could boost Gulf output soon.

Court Blocks Trump’s $20 Billion Climate Clawback. A US federal appeals court ruled that the EPA could not cancel Biden-era clean-energy grants solely over policy disagreements, restoring an injunction protecting $20 billion in funds for nonprofit lenders such as the Climate United Fund or CGC. 

US Major Changes Guard After 14 Years. Ryan Lance, CEO of ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), will retire next month and hand the reins to CFO Andy O’Brien after transforming the company into the world’s largest independent oil producer, having bought Concho Resources, Shell’s Permian assets and Marathon Oil.

China Opens Its Fuel Export Taps Wider. Beijing has relaxed restrictions on refined product exports for a second month, allowing August transportation fuel shipments of up to 3.6–3.7 million tonnes—well above last year’s monthly average—as refinery runs recover, reaching 13 million b/d last month.

Mexico Bans Fracking Despite US Gas Dependence. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum has ruled out pilot fracking projects in Coahuila and Tamaulipas despite rumours claiming the contrary, even though falling conventional gas output leaves Mexico reliant on the US for 75% of its gas needs.

Rhine Shipping Costs Explode as Water Hits Record Low. Navigable depth at Kaub fell to just 17 cm this week, forcing vessels to carry barely 20% of normal loads and tripling inland German tanker freight to €160 per tonne, however light precipitation on Friday has halted the past weeks’ continuous declines.

US Natural Gas Sinks Despite the Summer Heat. Henry Hub futures fell to a 14-week low of $2.64 per MMBtu after gas inventories jumped by 33 Bcf—well above the 5-year average—as near-record production and weaker LNG feedgas flows outweighed higher cooling demand across the country.

China Pushes the Yuan into Iron Ore Pricing. China’s main steel association CISA called for yuan-denominated benchmarks based on its vast port-side market, seeking to boost its clout in a market dominated by Australian and Brazilian miners and pushing for more yuan term deals for state buyers.Related: ADNOC Reports 15 Vessel Attacks as Hormuz Risks Mount

Britain Tightens the Screws on Russia’s Shadow Fleet. London sanctioned 6 Russian banks, 6 newly acquired tankers and 4 companies importing weapons-grade tantalum and niobium, expanding a pressure campaign that has now targeted more than 3,400 Russian individuals and entities since 2022.

Russia Drops Fuel Standards as Refineries Burn. Moscow has extended its waiver allowing refiners to produce lower-grade (Euro-2,3 and 4 standard) gasoline until July 2027 as Ukrainian attacks leave roughly 40% of refining capacity offline and pushed the country’s crude runs to a 21-year low in July.

Trump Puts a Price Floor Under US Solar. The White House will impose a 15% tariff and minimum import prices on polysilicon, wafers, cells and panels from December 4, seeking to shield domestic solar from Chinese competition and kick-start domestic polysilicon output, having only 2 factories currently.

China’s Rare-Earth Exports Hit a Summer Slump. Chinese exports of rare earths fell 17.3% month-on-month in July to a four-month low of 4,224 tonnes, down 30% from a year ago, as slower approvals from Beijing and seasonally weakening buying patterns from overseas customers led to a drying up of flows.

Congo Slams the Door on Raw Copper and Cobalt Exports. The Democratic Republic of Congo has banned copper (#2 globally) and cobalt (#1 globally) concentrate exports with immediate effect to force more domestic processing and boost mining revenue as the 0.5 mtpa Kamoa-Kakula smelter ramps up.

Iraq and Syria Dust Off a Hormuz Bypass. Baghdad and Damascus aim to rebuild the Kirkuk–Baniyas pipeline by 2029, potentially carrying 1.5–2 million b/d to the Mediterranean and giving Iraq a much-needed alternative after the Hormuz closure exposed its near-total dependence on Gulf export routes.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

 

Pentagon war game exposed a critical US aluminum risk months before Iran attacks

Bloomberg News | August 5, 2026 |

Aluminum smelter. Stock image.

Last summer, about 80 government officials and industry executives gathered in Washington to answer a key question: How would the US aluminum supply chain hold up in the event of a major global conflict?

The answer: potentially not well. That’s according to an analysis of the war simulation exercise, the details of which have not previously been reported. High-purity aluminum — an ultra-refined form used by the military for fighter jets and armored vehicles — emerged as a critical vulnerability. The metal is a niche, specialty material that accounts for a small share of the overall market but is crucial for defense and the aerospace industry.

The report noted that while China is the world’s dominant aluminum producer, the United Arab Emirates is a crucial supplier of the high-purity variety to the US. It provides about 90% of American imports of that metal, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter. Any hostilities that disrupt UAE aluminum production, then, threaten deliveries to the US. The report didn’t go into detail about how US aluminum supply would fare overall. 

Seven months after the Pentagon war game, the US attacked Iran. Iranian drone strikes damaged major plants in the UAE and Bahrain in March, driving prices for the metal to a four-year high. While the UAE facility has since restarted, it will take months to return to full capacity. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, meanwhile, has made it harder to get aluminum shipments to global buyers.

War-driven bottlenecks are amplifying concern that years of falling US aluminum production have eroded vital supply chains, putting them at risk despite the Trump administration’s tariffs and other efforts to rebuild domestic manufacturing.

The Iran war has laid bare a key weakness in the US defense industrial base: America effectively no longer makes high-purity aluminum. The nation’s sole large-scale producer shut down in 2022 because of soaring energy costs, leaving the government dependent on foreign suppliers.

That reliance on imports comes at an inopportune moment. The US military is racing to replenish high-purity aluminum stockpiles after months of war, while a global surge in defense spending is intensifying competition for the materials that underpin modern weapons production.

The attacks on Persian Gulf aluminum producers show that facilities essential to Defense Department logistics are increasingly at risk of targeted strikes, according to Bill Greenwalt, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

“It’s a huge wake-up call for the department to be looking at supply chains in all areas around the world to ensure that they’re not especially vulnerable to attack or sabotage,” said Greenwalt, who served as Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for industrial policy during the George W. Bush administration.

Companies that sell high-purity aluminum for US military use are rushing to pin down supply as the Iran war boosts defense spending. The ultra-refined metal has exceptionally low iron and silicon content, which means it can be used to produce alloys engineered for the strength and durability that’s required for fighter jets buffeted by extreme aerodynamic forces. 

While the high-purity aluminum market is not in a true shortage, it remains tight and it’s unclear how much metal these suppliers can secure, according to people familiar with the matter.

High-purity aluminum trades about 5 to 10 cents a pound above the so-called US Midwest premium, industry consultant Greg Wittbecker said. The Midwest premium, or the surcharge added to global price benchmarks to deliver aluminum to that region, surged in June to record highs in data going back to 2003 as the Iran war roiled supply, though prices have since pared some gains.

Regular suppliers of high-purity metal include Tennessee-based Kaiser Aluminum Corp., France’s Constellium SE and Apollo Global Management’s Arconic Corp., according to one trader. The companies are the top three providers of the ultra-refined metal to defense contractors including Lockheed Martin Corp. and Boeing Co. 

A spokesperson for Kaiser declined to comment. Spokespeople for the Defense Department, Constellium and Arconic didn’t immediately respond to requests  for comment. 

Much of the supply is likely to come from Emirates Global Aluminium PJSC. It’s the dominant supplier to the US, providing about 75,000 to 85,000 metric tons of high-purity aluminum per year for military needs, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter. Whether the three manufacturers can obtain enough material now hinges on uninterrupted shipments from the Middle East and how fast EGA’s damaged plant can restart, they added. Aluminum stockpiles held by EGA in the US are running low, they said.

A spokesperson for EGA declined to comment.

“This is a very specific type of aluminum product that is very much business to business, so it’s not something that you can go and pick up from a distributor,” Uday Patel, senior research manager for global aluminum markets at Wood Mackenzie, said in an interview. “We’re in a situation where there is no solution. Much will depend on how much stocks are in the pipeline.”

‘Large-scale combat’

The Pentagon war game unfolded over two days in July of last year, according to a report from the nonprofit Institute for Defense Analyses, which oversaw the exercise. 

The government officials and executives gathered were presented with a task: Increase the capacity of the US aluminum industry before and after a “major large-scale combat operation” that would curtail imports in 2027. A second event, such as a cyberattack leading to the loss of a smelter, would occur at the same time.

The participants were given cards representing actions they could take, like enforcing a “Buy American” rule, along with the estimated cost. They had to stick to specific budget scenarios ranging from $12 billion to $1 billion. Using wall charts, they wrote down their actions on sticky notes placed along a timeline.  

At the end of the exercise, the participants made a series of recommendations for government agencies and policymakers. They advised amassing a domestic stockpile of high-purity aluminum and related products, as well as expanding US production of the metal and investing in new equipment. They also suggested improving access to low-cost, reliable power sources, which they said could be done by reopening old coal-fired plants or opening new nuclear reactors and natural gas generators.

The war game was part of a broader effort to identify strategic dependencies. That’s an area where Washington has made far more progress diagnosing the problem than fixing it, according to Michael O’Hanlon, the Philip H. Knight Chair in defense and strategy at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.

The Pentagon frequently lacks information about subcontractors who are multiple steps removed from prime Defense Department contractors like Lockheed Martin, meaning dependencies become fully apparent only after a disruption occurs, according to O’Hanlon. Though the president can invoke the Defense Production Act — a federal law that grants emergency powers to control domestic industries — to prioritize the use of aluminum for the military, that would mean less supply for civilian consumption.

“If you start prioritizing for the military, then you’re going to deprioritize for somebody else,” O’Hanlon said.

As part of an effort led by Deputy Secretary of Defense Stephen Feinberg, the Pentagon has been working to gain better visibility into its supply chain, including for sub-tier suppliers many rungs below the primary contractors.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in late June called for assessing supply-chain vulnerabilities across various industries and expanding domestic capacity to ensure the US is never at the mercy of foreign chokepoints.

The Defense Department’s war game “makes clear that America’s military readiness is inseparable from America’s industrial readiness,” Charles Johnson, chief executive officer of the Aluminum Association industry group, said in an emailed statement. 

Johnson said the Aluminum Association is urging the Senate to advance the provisions in the House-passed National Defense Authorization Act that would strengthen the US domestic aluminum supply chain. The legislation would direct the Defense Department to submit a report to Congress on the supply chain, including an analysis of opportunities to increase aluminum production in the US.

Falling short

US policy efforts have so far fallen short, however.

In the clearest acknowledgment yet that President Donald Trump 50% tariffs on foreign aluminum haven’t boosted domestic manufacturing as intended, his administration recently unveiled an incentive program aimed at bringing aluminum smelting back to the US. The plan offers to halve duties on imports of the metal for companies building domestic plants.

Despite “the benefits from the aluminum tariff regime, the domestic production and supply of primary aluminum, which is critical to the US economy and defense industrial base, is still in insufficient supply,” according to a White House proclamation. 

Trump’s tariffs have also hindered domestic stockpiling of aluminum. That’s because they’ve helped drive up US prices, forcing manufacturers to buy only what they need as costs rise. 

The Pentagon’s Defense Logistics Agency has sought to procure high-purity aluminum on its own. Last year, it put out a tender seeking a contractor to provide the metal, with a stringent requirement: The material had to come from a US supplier. That’s a common provision in Defense Department contracts.

The agency later withdrew the tender without explanation. While Arconic makes the ultra-refined metal at its plant in Davenport, Iowa, the facility uses feedstock that’s partly imported. And the output is on a small scale and is only for the company’s internal consumption.

Artificial intelligence is a growing threat to US aluminum manufacturing, albeit an indirect one. Aluminum production, among the most energy-intensive industries, is struggling to compete with power-hungry data centers for cheap electricity. 

Before it was shut in 2022 due to high energy costs, Century Aluminum Co.’s Hawesville, Kentucky, smelter was identified by the Commerce Department as the only high-purity aluminum producer in the US to meet military demand. Century Aluminum sold the site earlier this year to TeraWulf Inc., a company that plans to build a data center there for AI behemoth Anthropic.

The US military can still get the high-purity aluminum it needs if it’s willing to pay a higher price, according to Eugene Gholz, an associate professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame. The metal can be produced elsewhere, although at elevated cost or with delays, he said. 

“If the government really wants the high-purity aluminum, they’re going to get it,” said Gholz, who served as senior adviser to the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Manufacturing and Industrial Base Policy from 2010 to 2012.

Still, supply-chain adjustment is neither immediate nor inexpensive. New production can take years to develop, especially in defense industries where permitting and investment are lengthy processes. That will remain a challenge for the US as it seeks to diversify its sources of high-purity aluminum and other critical materials, according to Jerry McGinn, director of the Center for the Industrial Base at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“These markets migrated out of the U.S. in the ’80s and ’90s because of market forces,” McGinn said. “Bringing them back is a hard thing to do.”

(By Yvonne Yue Li)

Ukraine Continues Attacks on Russia’s Black Sea Patrol Boats

Ukraine in July sank the patrol boat Izumrud used to protect Novorossiysk (Ukrainian Navy)

Published Aug 7, 2026 2:29 PM by The Maritime Executive

The Security Service of Ukraine is reporting that it damaged two more of Russia’s patrol boats used to protect key assets in the Black Sea. It is part of a series of systematic attacks targeting the boats and Russian shipping used to supply Crimea.

The Ukrainian Navy reported that it used long-range drones to attack two patrol boats in the port of Kerch. It said the vessels Balaklava and Kerch were damaged in these latest strikes. The SBU reports it is consistently working to reduce Russia’s strength and that military facilities, fuel and energy complexes, and other targets remain under attack.

Few details were provided on this latest attack, which was announced on August 6. The two vessels are part of the Project 10410 class used for coastal patrols. Reports said these two vessels were being used to protect the Crimean Bridge, a strategic logistics route and high-value military target. Ukraine has attacked the bridge in the past, seeking to interrupt the flow of military equipment, supplies, and fuel into Crimea.

The Project 10410 vessels, known as the Svetlyak class, date to the late 1980s and are approximately 50 meters (161 feet) in length. They are reported to be fast boats with a speed of approximately 30 knots and a crew of up to 28. Russia is believed to have as many as 33 of the vessels still in service, although the number could be less based on Ukraine’s claims of attacks.

 

Balaklava Patrol boat (Alexxx1979 - CC BY-SA 3.0)

 

The most recent attack came as Ukraine reported it also launched drones against one of Russia’s largest fuel refineries. The Slavneft-YANOS refinery is more than 700 km (nearly 440 miles) inside Russia from the border with Ukraine. SBU said four fuel tanks were damaged and were leaking. Two tankers were said to be on fire

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense reported in July that its forces had struck a record 236 ships. It highlighted that Ukrainian middle-strike drones now control not only land supply routes but sea routes as well, including in the Sea of Azov and around the Kerch Strait. It said the number of strikes at ranges of 50 km and beyond (over 30 miles) rose by 74 percent in July.

Among the strikes last month was the Russian patrol boat Izumrud. It was one of Russia’s newer vessels, having been built in 2014 and used to guard Novorossiysk. Ukraine claimed to have deployed one of its newest generation surface drones, the Sargan-3000, against the 62-meter (203-foot) patrol boat. Ukraine said sailors have been killed and injured in that attack and later released a satellite photo showing the severe damage and the vessel largely submerged at its dock.

Two Shipping Lines Suspend Service to Russia's Black Sea Ports

Damage to the Nadezhda (Turkish social media)

Published Aug 5, 2026 4:18 PM by The Maritime Executive

Facing an onslaught of Ukrainian drone attacks, Russian state shipping company Fesco and Turkish regional operator Kalyon have halted all sailings in the Black Sea, putting a stop to a substantial segment of the logistics network for Russian ports in the region. The suspension of Fesco's services is expected to significantly limit Russia's imports of goods from East Asia through Novorossiysk, forcing these cargoes to move overland by rail from the Far East or to pass through St. Petersburg.  

The announcement follows three recent casualties - the loss of the Fesco container ship Yanina on Saturday, an attack on the boxship LDR Yasar, and a drone strike on the Turkish ro/ro freighter Nadezhda off Novorossiysk. The attack on Nadezhda hit the accommodations block, seriously injuring three crewmembers.

Kalyon said that out of concern for the safety of its seafarers and the risk to their lives, it has temporarily suspended all voyages on Russian routes. Its employees share these concerns, the company said. "Due to the current security conditions, the great majority of ship crews have notified us that they do not wish to continue their duties, and this situation has rendered operational sustainability effectively impossible," explained Kalyon. 

Turkey's foreign ministry has issued a call to both sides of the Russia-Ukraine war to stop targeting merchant ships.

"We are deeply concerned that the war between Russia and Ukraine is spreading further into the Black Sea, also affecting civilian vessels, despite all our warnings. Unless preventive measures are taken, the escalation in the Black Sea will have multifaceted negative repercussions, including for food security," the ministry said in a statement. 

On the Ukrainian side of the Black Sea, merchant shipping has all but come to a halt under steady pressure from Russian drone and missile strikes, which have damaged both vessels and port infrastructure around the Odesa region. The shutdown has significant implications for Ukrainian grain and steel exports, with corresponding effects on GDP and tax revenue needed for the war effort. 

Both sides are feeling the effects of the counter-shipping strikes. Ukraine's persistent attacks on Russian tankers have cut crude oil loadings in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea ports by more than 60 percent, according to BIMCO. CPC loadings of Kazakh oil have also dropped by about 60 percent, the association assesses.

WAR IS ECOCIDE

Oman’s Turtle Coast Hit by Oil Leaking From the Tanker Caroline Bezengi

The Caroline Bezengi aground off Jazirat Al Qibliyyah on the Dhofar coast of Oman

Published Aug 4, 2026 5:51 PM by The Maritime Executive

The environmental catastrophe predicted when salvage surveyors inspected the Russian dark fleet Supermax, the Cameroon-flagged Caroline Bezengi (159,168 dwt), beached on rocks off an Omani island, is beginning to unfold.

The Caroline Bezengi was hit by an explosion on June 8 while off the coast of Oman. The tanker had completed a transit of the Suez Canal on May 30 and left the Maritime Security Transit Corridor when the explosion occurred. The crew was taken off without injury some four days later, and the tanker subsequently was driven onto the rocks on the southwest tip of Jazirat Al Qibliyyah, one of the Hallaniyat Islands off the coast of Dhofar in the southwest of Oman. The tanker was laden with oil taken on board at Novorossiysk and was destined for Gujarat. The tanker has a past association with Russian state ship-owner Sovcomflot, and had been sanctioned by the EU, UK, and US (OFAC).

The position of the ship is particularly difficult, and is exposed to heavy seas normal in this Khareef monsoon season. While the ship appears to be grounded on rocks forward, there are outcrops off the port side that could also catch the ship if it shifted. There are also exposed rocks 500 yards off the stern of the ship.

The Omani maritime authorities conducted an onboard survey of the ship on July 12, and noted considerable deterioration in comparison with an aerial survey conducted the prior week, with the ship lower in the water, with a more pronounced list, and liable to break up in heavy weather. The tanker was fully laden except for one tank – this empty tank being the only one apparently not breached, with the remaining tanks all full, showing signs of seawater contamination. Crude leakage into ballast was noted during the on-board inspection, and also into the double hull spacing, the fumes from which were identified as potentially explosive. The survey also identified a feasible plan for off-loading the Caroline Bezengi’s cargo, worth probably over $100 million, via a 1000-yard pipeline to a receiving tanker anchored in safer waters in the lee of the island. The tanker potentially could be refloated as it was lightened, but with all the risks of on-board explosions and the ship breaking up further as the operation progresses.

Local newspapers reported on July 23 that the Omani Ministry of Transport, Communications and Information Technology has issued an urgent 24-hour directive for the owners to remove the vessel. It is not clear if the Ministry received a response from the Chinese registered owners, Rentoor Ship Management, based in Huangpu Qu, Shanghai. But it appears unlikely, as the address appears to be a dead-letter box in a residential block of flats in downtown Shanghai, a typical set-up in the registration particulars of Russian dark fleet tankers. 

 

Jazirat Al Qibliyyah and the Caroline Bezengi (red) on August 2 with possible salvor vessels (green) (Sentinel-2/CJRC)

 

From satellite imagery of Jazirat Al Qibliyyah on August 2, there are indications of several small vessels standing off the wreck in two groups, 1nm to the north and 5nm to the east of the wreck of the Caroline Bezengi. But no unloading operation appears to be underway, and a strong plume of oil can be seen drifting around the island from the wreck and way off towards the north-east. This plume continues in a consistent direction and broadens, such that it would hit the Omani coast between Sharbithat and Ras Madrakah. This is a particularly isolated area, the sea fringed by cliffs and small widths of inaccessible beach, which makes it a perfect coastline for turtles to come ashore and lay eggs without human interference. The sea area offshore is a marine reserve for a number of endangered species, including petrels and the rare Arabian Sea humpback whale. It is not clear if the Omani authorities have yet got a salvage operation underway, and neither the ministry nor the marine salvage firm best equipped to take on the task have responded to enquiries.

 

 
The spread of the oil plume from the Caroline Bezengi, affecting a protected marine reserve and landing on the Omani coast between Sharbithal and Ras Madrakah (Google Earth/CJRC)

The Caroline Bezengi appears to have been a victim of a limpet mine attack, likely orchestrated by Ukraine. Unless the Ukrainians have acquired a long-range naval capability, a limpet mine would most likely have been placed on the ship since leaving Novorossiysk, and when it was at anchor. Ships customarily anchor while waiting to enter the Suez Canal, but also often do so in the As Suways Anchorage on exit as well, to complete procedures. The timing of the explosion, on a predictable course, may have been a warning not to register Russian-owned dark fleet tankers;  39 such vessels currently fly the Omani flag, out of a total ship registry of 43 vessels.
 

Oil Slicks and a Burning Ship Show the Toll of the Hormuz Crisis

Minoan Pioneer, center right, drifts among oil slicks on August 5 (Copernicus / Sentinel-2)

Published Aug 5, 2026 10:52 PM by The Maritime Executive

Sentinel-2c satellite imagery taken on August 5 off the northern tip of Oman’s Musandam Peninsula shows the extent of damage inflicted on shipping and Oman’s coastline as a consequence of Iranian IRGC drone and anti-shipping cruise missile attacks.

Clearly identifiable both from its length and its color is the 225m container ship, the Liberian-flagged Minoan Pioneer (IMO 9471630). The Minoan Pioneer was attacked on August 3, and her third engineer remains missing. Yesterday this vessel was appearing as a hot spot on NASA FIRMS fire detection satellite imagery. The ship is no longer burning to a degree which shows a red heat signature in FIRMS, but in today’s Sentinel imagery black smoke appears to be still coming off the bow of the ship.

The Minoan Pioneer does not appear to be leaking bunker fuel, and the source is unclear; though the resolution of Sentinel-2 imagery has limits, it is possible that there may be two additional, smaller vessels linked to some of the visible oil plumes (circled in green and yellow).

Royal Navy of Oman locations on Goat Island (left) and Didamar (right), the Minoan Pioneer (red) and two possible small 85m (yellow) and 55m (green) vessels plus oil spills (Sentinel-2c/CJRC)

Tidal flow in the Strait is heavier than within the Gulf, and tends to flow inwards through the north of the Strait and outwards in the southern section. Salinity is lower in the Gulf of Oman than within the Arabian Gulf, but tidal mixing forces are vigorous, quickly evening out the salinity, a tidal mechanism which should help with the dispersal of oil.

Locations where vessels are known to have been struck within Omani territorial waters while transiting the Omani coastal route (Google Earth/CJRC)

There is no evidence in the imagery of any salvage or cleanup activity underway, presumably because any such activity could be vulnerable to IRGC drone or missile attack. At the single point in time of imaging, no warships were identifiable, nor were any ships spotted using the Omani coastal route to either enter or exit the Gulf.

Any cleanup activity undertaken once the military situation permits will be difficult and complex, because the Musandam Peninsula’s fjord-like coastline is both difficult to navigate and typically has no accessible shoreline, its cliffs falling directly into the sea. Given the mountainous terrain, many of the remote fishing communities scattered around the northern and eastern coast are only accessible by sea.

War Risk Insurance Pays $11M for Loss of Mayuree Naree

Precious Shipping received a payment on its war risk insurance for the loss of the bulker in the Strait of Hormuz (Royal Thai Navy)

Published Aug 7, 2026 12:40 PM by The Maritime Executive

The Thai shipping company Precious Shipping reports it has received a payment of $10.98 million on the war risk insurance related to the bulker Mayuree Naree, which was destroyed during an attack in the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel, which later grounded in Iran, was declared a constructive total loss.

The 30,193-dwt bulker, which was built in 2008, was struck on March 11 by two projectiles. The company said the vessel had been following the safety advisories and was attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz when it was struck at approximately 08:15 local time.

The attack caused a fire on the vessel in the engine room and flooding. A total of 20 of the 23 crew aboard were able to escape the ship and were rescued by the Royal Navy of Oman. They returned to Thailand on March 16.

Three seafarers were missing after the attack. The company had reported at the end of March that a specialized team searched the ship despite difficult conditions, including residual smoke, the fire damage in the engine room and surrounding compartments, and flooding. They were unable to locate the remains of the missing crew, but a second search days later located the crewmembers. The bodies were returned to Thailand at the beginning of July.

After the ship was abandoned, it continued to drift in the Strait. Iranian officials reported the ship had grounded in late March on the other side of the Strait. It was reported on the southern coast of Qeshm Island, north of Larak Island, under the control of the Iranians.

“The group received $10.98 million in war risk insurance proceeds relating to the vessel loss and statutory crew compensation,” the company said in its mid-year financial reports. It said that it had incurred an expense of $1.26 million from the incident, but that there were no cargo claims as the ship was sailing in ballast.

Three of the surviving crewmembers, however, have sued the company in the Labour Court in Thailand. The company acknowledges the suit, which was filed in early July with allegations that the company was not adequately providing for the survivors. The company said it had provided medical examinations, counseling, and psychological support while meeting its contractual obligations. Precious Shipping reports that 17 of the survivors have now returned to work.

The company, however, has a second ship still stuck in the Persian Gulf. It said in March a charter ended for the Hatthaya Naree (39,000 dwt). The Singapore-flagged vessel, which was built in 2015, was fixed on a new time charter on June 24, 2026. However, due to the continuing security situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the vessel remains in the region pending safe onward transit. Precious Shipping reports it has a total of 41 vessels after the loss of the Mayuree Naree.

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) listed the Mayuree Naree as one of a total of 64 confirmed incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East since March. It calculates that 17 fatalities have been confirmed. There is no confirmed count on how many seafarers remain trapped in the region.

As Hormuz Talks Inch Towards Finish Line, Conflict Heats Up in Yemen

Strike in progress at a Saudi-backed military outpost in Marib (Saudi social media)

Published Aug 6, 2026 7:49 PM by The Maritime Executive

On Thursday, Iranian-backed Houthi forces launched attacks on the Saudi border city of Najran and the Yemeni government stronghold at Marib, part of a broader pattern of regional escalation. Saudi intelligence suggests that preparations are under way by Iran-backed militias to launch new strikes on Gulf infrastructure and seaports. The new hostilities could complicate delicate plans to negotiate a truce between Iran, its GCC neighbors and the United States. 

Najran is a small oasis city just north of the Yemeni border, and Houthi forces have repeatedly targeted its airport, claiming that the site is being used to launch surveillance drones over Houthi territory. 11 civilians were wounded in the strike on Thursday, Saudi forces said. The area has strategic relevance: In the civil war period, the Najran region was a launchpad for Saudi incursions across the border, and it was the location of a significant Saudi defeat at the hands of Houthi forces in 2019. 

The Marib area is about 80 miles inland from the Houthi capital at Sanaa, and is a gateway to Yemen's oilfields. The strikes on government bases in Marib and nearby regions killed more than 30 government soldiers, Yemeni sources told Al Jazeera - the most significant attacks since the Yemeni ceasefire deal was signed in 2022. The numbers are expected to rise.

Saudi military sources have also reported signs of a possible pending Iranian-backed attack by Houthi groups and Iraqi militias, which possess drone capabilities for long-range strikes on Saudi infrastructure. 

"I think they want to coordinate attacks from both north and south," a Saudi official told CNN, "mostly civilian and economic installations" like seaports and energy facilities - targets which the Houthis have hit before.  

Just yesterday, Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree said that the group would be intensifying its effort to blockade Saudi ports in the Red Sea, and he pledged to counteract Saudi efforts to ship crude northwards through the Suez Canal - where energy logistics would be out of reach of Houthi targeting. 

COMMENT: Iran and the UAE are working together to outlast Trump

A container ship crosses the Strait of Hormuz. UAE-Iran trade has accelerated even as the wider Gulf war continues. / bne IntelliNewsFacebook

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By Ben Aris August 7, 2026

A "truce" between the UAE and Iran, agreed after direct contacts between senior officials in mid-June, is helping both countries manage the fallout of the wider Gulf war and undermining Washington's strategy of economic pressure, Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, wrote in a note published August 7.

The de-escalation has spared Emirati cities and critical infrastructure from the direct attacks Iran has continued to level at other Gulf states, Batmanghelidj notes, citing a Financial Times report on the truce. The UAE exported more crude through the Strait of Hormuz than any other Gulf producer in July, with supertankers loading from secondary terminals at Zirku and Das islands and smaller vessels conducting ship-to-ship transfers off Fujairah before crossing the strait - a sign, he writes, that the FT's characterisation of the truce as a "bold gamble" is paying off.

Emirati officials deny making direct financial transfers to Iran, and Batmanghelidj is sceptical of reports the UAE paid Tehran "billions of dollars" to halt attacks, arguing any such inflow would show up immediately in Iran's foreign-exchange markets. What Iran needed, he argues, was not cash but the logistical and financial channels to procure goods.

Over 50 container ships crossed between the UAE and Iran in July, according to shipping-data provider Kpler, approaching pre-war levels - feeder services between the Iranian ports of Bandar Lengeh and Bandar Abbas and the Emirati ports of Port Rashid and Jebel Ali, carrying fruit and vegetables out and industrial intermediate goods back. At least eight bulk carriers crossed the strait in the past week to call at Bandar Imam Khomeini, delivering grain and animal feed to a country reliant on imports to cover its food-consumption shortfall; Iranian importers regained the dollar liquidity needed to pay for those cargoes through the UAE's financial system, reversing a block Emirati authorities imposed in early March after the first wave of Iranian strikes on Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

Not appeasement, but interdependence

Batmanghelidj pushes back on Western commentary that frames the UAE's continued economic engagement as a form of appeasement.

"It is a reflection of the deep and long-standing interdependence between the two countries," he writes. "As the war dragged on, Emirati officials needed to mitigate harm to key parts of the economy, ranging from the oil industry to the tourism sector. Likewise, Iranian officials needed to restore critical supply chains, sustaining manufacturing output and safeguarding food security to maintain stability during the war."

He argues the dynamic also explains why a reported Israeli push for a "land blockade" of Iran - convincing regional states to shut border crossings and ports to Tehran - has gone nowhere: neighbouring states' own economic engagement with Iran is what lets them manage the instability created, in his telling, by the Trump administration's oscillation between offering a deal and threatening further strikes.

"Six months on, it is clear that the war has no military solution, only a diplomatic one," Batmanghelidj concludes, framing the UAE's restored trade with Iran as evidence that regional actors, not Washington, are setting the terms of how the conflict actually winds down.