Wednesday, March 18, 2020

BLACK SWAN COVID-19

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A “black swan” is the term of art for something that is highly improbable, even unimaginable. ... And the facile willingness to see crises as black swans has provided policymakers cover for failing to act in the face of clear and present dangers from climate change to health care to economic insecurity.

No, the coronavirus pandemic wasn't an 'unforseen problem' - The Washington Post


https://www.washingtonpost.com › outlook › 2020/03/17 › no-coronavirus-...

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Black Swan Definition - Investopedia


https://www.investopedia.com › Investing › Markets


Mar 11, 2020 - Black swan events can cause catastrophic damage to an economy, and because they cannot be predicted, can only be prepared for by ...

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Black swan theory - Wikipedia


https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Black_swan_theory


The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often ...
‎Background · ‎Coping with · ‎Epistemological approach · ‎See also


Black Swans Started The Selloff, Now Economic Gravity Will ...


https://www.forbes.com › sites › michaelcannivet › 2020/03/11 › black-sw...


6 days ago - Nicholas Nassim Taleb wrote a book on this subject titled, The Black Swan. ... Pandemics have always been a potential ‘black swan’ risk to markets. ... With COVID-19 causing an unprecedented disruption in global travel, the energy industry faces its biggest demand shock since the financial ...

Is coronavirus really a black swan event? - The Week


https://theweek.com › articles › coronavirus-really-black-swan-event


Mar 8, 2020 - Both the long economic expansion and 2020 presidential race seem ... Politico reports, "Trump faces 'black swan' threat to the economy and ...

Black Swan Definition from Financial Times Lexicon


markets.ft.com › research › Lexicon › Term › term=black-swan


A black swan in markets is an event that has not occurred in the past, thus rendering useless risk management models based on historic data. Such a risk model ...

Black Swan Event - Guide to Unpredictable Catastrophic Events


https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com › Resources › Knowledge › Finance


A black swan event, a phrase commonly used in the world of finance, is an extremely negative event or occurrence that is impossibly difficult to predict. In other ...

What does coronavirus 'Black Swan' mean for markets?


https://euobserver.com › opinion
2 hours ago - ... and raised concerns that the economy is moving towards a sharp slowdown. The Black Swan of the coronavirus infection epidemic launched ..
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Roubini warns on 'severe' coronavirus recession, says everyone needs $1K payment


Famed economist Nouriel Roubini predicted that a recession from the worldwide coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak will be “more severe” than the global financial crisis, but fiscal pump-priming is critical to mitigating the impact.

With governments around the world resorting to extreme measures to keep citizens indoors and away from large gatherings, many on Wall Street are now expecting a global recession. Known as “Dr. Doom” for his gloomy economic predictions, Roubini added to those voices by telling Yahoo Finance on Tuesday that markets have reasons to be downbeat.

“For now, there is not much to be optimistic [about], and what we can hope is if there’s going to be the right stimulus — and it has to be something of at least 3% of GDP — this is going to be a very severe, but short recession,” Roubini told “On The Move” in an interview.

In order to counteract the widening effects of social distancing, President Donald Trump and his top advisors are currently debating a massive stimulus — including cutting every American a check.

Roubini agreed, suggesting that Congress give $1,000 to “every single U.S. resident” before it’s too late.

“It doesn’t matter if you’re young, old, employed, unemployed, student, formerly employed, partially employed, hourly worker, contractor, gig, or small business,” the New York University economist said.

“Everybody needs at $1,000 or otherwise we’ll end up in the Great Depression at this point.”
Reality will bite soon

Retail and manufacturing data this week offered investors a small hint of the ugliness the pandemic has in store for the economy — and neither figure was pretty.

With that in mind, Roubini expects the recession will start during the current quarter, as the pandemic spurs mass closures of businesses and lost wages for many hourly and service sector workers. He forecasted a contraction in economic growth through the second quarter, and “most likely” in Q3.

“But if we have the monetary easing we have right now, if we control the pandemics by doing systematic quarantines, maybe by June-July the pandemic is stopped, and maybe by the fourth quarter of this year we are going to have an economic recovery,” he said.

The economist added that the U.S. needs “fiscal stimulus,” since the Federal Reserve has done “everything under the sun.” Within the space of a week, the Fed has cut rates to zero, and thrown trillions at the market in an effort to backstop financial institutions, non-bank corporations and lending markets overall.

Yet Roubini pointed out that what the economy actually needs is fiscal stimulus to backstop falling private demand — especially as exports, consumption, residential investment, and capital expenditures collapse.
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THOSE WHO OPPOSE MEDICARE FOR ALL AS TOO COSTLY  ARE THOSE WHO APPROVED THE WAR IN IRAQ WITH NO BUDGET OR FUNDING REQUIREMENTS OR LIMITS COSTING AMERICANS TRILLIONS IN DEBT FINANCING.
THE WAR WAS SO CORRUPT THAT THE USA LOST BILLIONS TO THE LIKES OF HALLIBURTON IN CONTRACTING OUT COST OVERRUNS ACCORDING TO THE INSPECTOR GENERAL 
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Trump’s $46B coronavirus aid request includes $8B for DoD  
Joe Gould, Defense News•March 17, 2020

WASHINGTON ― The White House submitted an emergency funding request to Congress late Tuesday for an added $45.8 billion, with $8.3 billion in it for the Defense Department―all to address the coronavirus pandemic.

The request is separate from the Trump administration’s $1 trillion stimulus proposal, which it presented the same day on Capitol Hill.

“With the pandemic growing, resource needs have also grown. The unprecedented mobilization the Administration has achieved has forced agencies to incur unanticipated costs,” White House acting budget director Russell Vought said in a letter attached to the 118-page request.

“These costs must be met with a legislative response to ensure full operational capacity. The aim of this request is to maintain that capacity and ensure that resource needs created by the pandemic response are met.”

Congressional chairmen hope COVID-19 won’t derail defense policy bill
For DoD, the funds would be to, “mitigate the risk of COVID-19 to United States service members, their dependents, and DOD civilians; minimize the impacts of the virus on strategic mission readiness; and support national response efforts.

“The request includes resources to facilitate changes in servicemember personnel policy; expedite access to rapid COVID-19 diagnostics; ensure access to medical care, including additional medical countermeasures; address the impacts of the pandemic on logistics and supply chains, including pharmaceuticals and personal protective equipment; and bolster the overall national response.”

The president is also requesting a variety of new authorities across the federal government, including the provision of transfer authority from the Defense Emergency Response Fund to other currently available DoD accounts.

On the heels of an $8.3 billion aid package Congress approved last week ― primarily for the Department of Health and Human Services ― the sizes of the spending packages signal the broad scope of what the Trump administration believes it will need to grapple with the pandemic.
WHAT WAS PROJECTED FOR 2023 HAS ALREADY BEEN MET IN 2020
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'Try getting it yourselves': Trump told governors they're responsible for getting their own medical equipment to treat coronavirus patients
HOW TO WIN FRIENDS AND INFLUENCE PEOPLE

President Donald Trump told a group of governors on Monday that they should get vital equipment to treat coronavirus patients on their own.
© Alex Brandon/AP Photo

"Respirators, ventilators, all of the equipment - try getting it yourselves," Trump told the governors during a phone call, The New York Times reported. "We will be backing you, but try getting it yourselves. Points of sales, much better, much more direct if you can get it yourself."

The Times reported that Trump's directive took some of the governors by surprise given that states are already working overtime to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus and are hoping for more federal aid.

Hospitals across the country are overwhelmed as the number of confirmed coronavirus cases continues to skyrocket.

The Washington Post reported that health care workers are building triage tents outside emergency rooms, squeezing extra beds into break rooms and physical therapy gyms, and calling for delays in elective surgeries - or cancelling them altogether - as they grapple with the rapidly spreading disease.

At least 3,823 people in 49 US states plus Washington, DC, and three territories have tested positive for the virus, and at least 67 patients have died. New York alone reported 950 cases as of Monday morning.

The Times reported that Trump used most of his conference call with governors to paint a rosy picture of the disease, which contradicts everything scientists and public health experts have said.

"We're going to get it remedied and hopefully very quickly," the president said. "We broke down a system that was broken, very badly broken," he added, and said his administration would create a new system "that I think is going to be the talk of the world."

Trump's comments are at odds with his own earlier statements, during which he claimed the US was well equipped to handle the virus, that it was "totally under control," and that it had been "contained."

The World Health Organization classified the novel coronavirus as a pandemic on Wednesday. To date, the disease has infected nearly 175,000 people around the world and killed more than 6,700.

The Trump administration has been widely criticized for what critics say is tepid response to a rapidly spreading pandemic. Trump declared a national emergency on Friday after weeks of downplaying the risks of the public health crisis.

The move will trigger the Stafford Act and open up access to $50 billion in federal money to be allocated to states and municipalities.

Cities and states across the country have also implemented strict restrictions and shut down public places in the absence of federal guidance.

New York - which is a hotspot for the outbreak in the US - Los Angeles, Massachusetts, Ohio, and others have begun lockdown procedures. New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey jointly moved to ban gatherings of more than 50 people.

On Monday, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo called for the Army Corps of Engineers to deploy to the state and build more hospital beds.

"This is a disaster waiting to happen," Cuomo said on "Good Morning America."

"There has been no country that has handled this without a national response," he added.
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MICROSOFT NEWS POLL
Do you think President Trump has shown good leadership skills in his response to the coronavirus outbreak?

Yes, absolutely
14%

To a certain extent
6%

No, not at all
80%

No opinion / Other
1%

Based on 20,026 responses. Snapshot of real-time results.Learn More
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Inside the Pro-Trump Facebook Group Where First Responders Call Coronavirus a Hoax

by Isaac Arnsdorf PROPUBLICA
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power.

In a 27,000-member private Facebook group for first responders who support President Donald Trump, firefighters and paramedics have posted thousands of comments in recent weeks downplaying the coronavirus pandemic that they are responsible for helping to handle.

Posts in the group, which is called IAFF Union Firefighters for Trump and has been endorsed by Trump, scoffed at the seriousness of the virus, echoing false assertions by Trump and his allies comparing it to the seasonal flu. “Every election year has a disease,” read one meme, purporting to be written on a doctor’s office whiteboard. “This is a viral-pneumonia being hyped as The Black Plague before an election.”

As of Monday, there were 4,464 cases and 78 deaths in the U.S., according to researchers at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

As confirmed cases and deaths expanded and officials began shutting down mass gatherings and public places, the posts intensified their attacks on Democrats and the media. “I believe this is all by design,” wrote a Texas firefighter whose identity was corroborated by ProPublica. “Democrats have wanted to slow down and even kill the economy. It’s the only hope they have of beating Trump. Sad and disgusting the depths of s--t the Democrats will descend to in order to gain power.”


© Provided by ProPublica

Posts containing factual information or firsthand experiences with the virus were met with more accusations of plots to harm Trump’s reelection. When a Florida firefighter said action was required now to prevent a crisis like is currently underway in Italy, where 27,980 have been infected and 2,158 have died, because the virus spreads at an exponential rate, the first reply was poop emojis and “Trump2020.”

Some comments promoted a baseless conspiracy theory that the virus is a biological weapon developed by the Chinese in collaboration with Democrats.

“By the Chinese to stop the riots in Hong Kong,” one member wrote.

“[Y]ou are absolutely correct,” another replied. “I said that in the beginning. Democrats saw an opportunity to use it against Trump and get rid of older people which they have been trying to do for a while.”

Commenters contacted by ProPublica declined to answer questions or didn’t respond to messages. ProPublica reviewed hundreds of screenshots provided by co-workers of members of the group who asked to be anonymous, fearing retaliation. Those people said the social media posts are not idle online venting — they reflect real-world attitudes that are leading some first responders to potentially shun special plans and protective equipment. That dismissiveness, the people said, could put first responders and others at risk as they attend to emergency calls with potentially infected people.
© Provided by ProPublica

Leaders at the International Association of Fire Fighters are also concerned. “I’ve read the social media. I know there are going to be accusations that this is all hype,” Jim Brinkley, IAFF assistant to the general president for technical and information resources, said in a video that the union posted online. “If we ignore it, if we take it lightly, we will set a new standard in the wrong direction for infectious disease in this country.”

Firefighters and paramedics, who jointly respond to 911 calls in most places, are among those at the greatest risk of encountering the coronavirus, and their exposure could endanger others if they have to be quarantined and are no longer available to work. Dozens of firefighters who responded to the nursing home in Kirkland, Washington, that was a hot spot of the outbreak had to be quarantined for weeks.

The private Facebook group was formed last year to protest the IAFF’s official endorsement of Democratic presidential hopeful Joe Biden. Trump encouraged his followers to join the Facebook group in May 2019.

ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom based in New York. Sign up for ProPublica’s Big Story newsletter to receive articles and investigations like this one as soon as they’re published.

The group’s founder, Kelly Hallman, told ProPublica he doesn’t speak for everyone who posts, but he can understand why many emergency professionals share his skepticism about the coronavirus. He said previous outbreaks such as SARS, the H1N1 “swine flu” and Ebola didn’t prompt such a big response, and he thinks the reason is politics.

“There’s never been this much hoopla given to the other things,” Hallman said. “They’re doing it to crash the economy and make Trump look bad.”

Hallman’s view hasn’t changed as Trump went from calling concerns over the coronavirus a “hoax” on Feb. 28 to declaring a national emergency on Friday. Hallman said Trump has had to address fears stirred up by the media.

“If you had to point a finger at why the leftist media and the left in general has a smile on their face about this whole thing, it’s the Dow,” Hallman said, referring to the historic decline in stock prices. “My wife and kids are scared, they’re believing what they’re seeing on TV. And I’m trying to tell them it’s not as bad as the media makes it out.”
© Provided by ProPublica

Public health experts are unified in calling for drastic measures to contain and mitigate the spread in the U.S. “When you’re dealing with an emerging infectious diseases outbreak, you are always behind where you think you are,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said at a White House press conference on Monday. “It will always seem that the best way to address it would be doing something that looks like it might be an overreaction. It’s not an overreaction. It’s a reaction that we feel is commensurate with what is actually going on in reality.”

The government’s guidelines, Fauci said, “will fail if people don’t adhere to them.”

IAFF spokesman Doug Stern said views like those expressed in the Facebook group reflect the minority of first responders, citing conversations with local leaders who are eager for more information about how to prepare for the coronavirus.

“Our leadership is aware of this issue, and we are taking it seriously because we know how important it is,” Stern said of COVID-19. Most important, Stern said, is for 911 callers to tell the dispatcher if anyone is experiencing flu-like symptoms so responders can wear protective gear and send a smaller team.

Caroline Chen contributed reporting.

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Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Amazon road-building projects would result in deforestation of 2.4 million hectares

by Bob Yirka , Phys.org
Amazon forest
Credit: CC0 Public Domain
A team of researchers from the U.S., Bolivia, Brazil, Sweden, Peru and Columbia has found that most of the road projects currently planned for the Amazon rainforest have not been assessed for environmental or economic impacts. In their paper published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the group describes their own assessment of the impact of 75 planned road building projects and what they found.
Despite the critical role that the Amazon rainforest plays in storing carbon, governments in the area continue to approve road building projects, oftentimes without ever assessing the ecological impact of such projects or whether they will even be economically viable. In this new effort, the researchers analyzed 75 road building projects that are slated for the next five years.
The researchers began by noting that the construction of the roads, which together will add up to 12,000 kilometers of roadway, will cost approximately $27 billion. The roads will be built in Columbia, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia and Brazil. They also note that the rationale for building the roads is to promote agriculture and cattle ranching. To assess the impact of the projects, the team chose to constrain their study to 20 years.
The researchers found that building the roads would result in deforestation of approximately 2.4 million hectares of rainforest. Seventeen percent of the projects are in violation of either  or Indigenous rights. They also found that the money spent to build many of the roads would not result in economic gain—instead, almost half of them would experience losses. They found that canceling the ones that they  to experience losses would prevent losses of up to $7.6 billion and reductions of rainforest loss by approximately 1.1 million hectares.
The researchers also ranked the roads by degree of environmental (and social) impact and found that if road planners approved those with the least impact and cut the others, they would see a net gain of $4 billion while cutting the amount of rainforest loss to just 10% of original projections. They conclude that proper assessments of  building projects in the Amazon could reduce the amount of forest cut down and the costs involved
Study of Brazilian Amazon shows 50,000 km of road was built in just three years
More information: Thais Vilela et al. A better Amazon road network for people and the environment, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2020). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1910853117
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