MYANMAR CRISIS

Myanmar's purge of tycoon highlights tension within regime

Military chief may follow 'Xi Jinping's playbook' to eliminate rivals, expert says

Myanmar's ruler, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, has arrested a number of associates of Shwe Mann, a rival and a former speaker of the lower house of parliament. 

(Source photo by Reuters)

THOMPSON CHAU and DOMINIC OO, 

contributing writers

April 17, 2022 

YANGON/TAIPEI -- The arrest and detention of Khin Shwe, a longtime Myanmar tycoon, by the military regime last month hints at an irreconcilable split between Min Aung Hlaing's ruling faction and Shwe Mann, a former general who was once among the country's most powerful politicians.

The arrest of Khin Shwe points to tensions between the current military leaders and the old guard associated with previous juntas, as the two are not believed to be connected with Myanmar's pro-democracy movement, which is trying to remove the generals from power, or the National Unity Government, a shadow authority established by ousted lawmakers from Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy.

The interrogation by authorities in late March of Yangon's commerce minister, Aung Than Oo, and Mayor Bo Htay over a land dispute has added to speculation that there is a factional dispute between Myanmar's current military rulers and the old guard. Both Aung Than Oo and Bo Htay were appointed by the military after it seized power in February 2021.

Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar's ruler, has struggled to resuscitate collapsing business confidence following military takeover in February last year. Members of the local and foreign business community have largely shunned the regime's top officials as public resentment against the military authorities deepens.

On March 21, 70-year-old Khin Shwe and his son, Zay Thiha, were arrested and are being held at Yangon's Insein Prison following a dispute dating back to 2018 related to a construction project on military-owned land in Bahan township. Their detention was confirmed by military spokesperson Zaw Min Tun at a news conference in Naypyidaw on March 24.

A leaked police report circulated on social media and verified by Burmese news outlet Khit Thit Media suggests the father and son were arrested for allegedly failing to pay more than $20 million for land that the company leased in Yangon in breach of the initial memorandum of understanding, as well as for destroying buildings considered heritage sites owned by the Defense Ministry.

Myanmar tycoon Khin Shwe poses for a photo at his office in Yangon in 2015.

 © Reuters

In 1990, Khin Shwe founded the Zaykabar conglomerate. His company became a big player in Myanmar's construction industry thanks to its closeness to the military, making him one of the richest people in the country.

The tycoon was a prominent member of the military-business establishment, an ally of the military and a member of parliament for the pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) from 2010 to 2015. He was originally sanctioned by the U.S. due to his close relationship with Khin Nyunt, a spymaster who ruled Myanmar with an iron fist until his ouster in 2004.

Business people and analysts have also highlighted Khin Shwe's close ties to Shwe Mann as a reason for his fall from grace. His daughter is married to the son of Shwe Mann, who was a powerful general, third in command in the junta that ruled Myanmar for half a century before giving way in 2011 to a quasi-military government led by President Thein Sein. Shwe Mann then became speaker of the lower house of parliament.

Under the Thein Sein administration, Shwe Mann was also leader of the then-ruling USDP until he was ousted in 2015. He drew closer to Aung San Suu Kyi in the run-up to the elections that year that brought Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy to power.

Shwe Mann, left, then speaker of Myanmar's parliament, greets pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi before their meeting in 2015. 

 © Reuters

"Shwe Mann remains widely reviled within the USDP among hard-liners and some military leaders," said Thant Zin, a Burmese business analyst in Yangon who has access to members of the military. They blame his decision as parliament speaker to block a switch to proportional representation for the party's decimation at the polls, despite gaining a significant share of the vote, Than Zin said.

Shwe Mann has not been seen in public since February 2021. The Union Betterment Party that he founded did not win any seats in the 2020 polls.

"Khin Shwe and Shwe Mann are in-laws. This reaffirms the fact that Shwe Mann is now completely out of their picture. I think Min Aung Hlaing is on the path of following Xi Jinping's playbook, where the Chinese president is eliminating Jiang Zemin's faction one after another," said a well-connected Burmese-Chinese business owner in Yangon.

A lot of cronies are "vigilant," and "quite a number of tycoons remain overseas, avoiding the risk of getting detained," the businessman said.

"I can't shed a tear for him [Khin Shwe]. He was crying himself, of course," another influential business source in Yangon remarked.

Khin Shwe had allegedly asked Shwe Mann for help with his business and with bringing in a Chinese company without permission, which might have angered the military. But experts point to other underlying reasons: "Khin Shwe encouraged his constituents in Kawhmu to vote for the NLD, so [he] was regarded as a traitor by the USDP. Also, he was a Khin Nyunt crony, and of Chinese ethnicity, so he's not one that Min Aung Hlaing and company appreciate," the source told Nikkei.

Myanmar's military ousted the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021. 

 © Reuters

Political insiders have branded Shwe Mann "a paper tiger" and say his political career is over, according to a politician who is not connected to the NUG or the NLD. "Unlike other old guards of the Tatmadaw [Myanmar's military], the State Administration Council [the official name of the military government] will not use Shwe Mann for its future political games."

"I don't think it necessarily signals a split within the old crony-military elite-industrial complex. Khin Shwe's arrest would serve as a 'warning shot' [for] present and old cronies, and their offspring no less -- that they and their assets are not as untouchable as they had deemed," said Thant Zin. "The arrest is symbolic of the current junta's 'settling of old scores' mentality."

The downfall of prominent politicians and tycoons could have implications for the regime's top brass. According to Thant Zin, Aung Than Oo's mentor and the person closest to him in the current cabinet is Immigration Minister and USDP Vice Chair Khin Yi.

"It remains to be seen if the arrests would undermine Khin Yi's position in the regime and the USDP," he said.

Myanmar junta to free 1,600 prisoners in new year amnesty

Some 1,619 prisoners, including 42 foreigners, had been "pardoned" and will be released to mark the new year. PHOTO: AFP

YANGON (AFP) - Myanmar's junta will release over 1,600 prisoners from jails across the country on Sunday(April 17) to mark the Buddhist new year, it said, without specifying whether those being pardoned were protesters or common criminals.

The Southeast Asian country has been in turmoil since the military's ouster of Aung San Suu Kyi's government last year, which sparked huge protests and a deadly crackdown.

Some 1,619 prisoners, including 42 foreigners had been "pardoned" and will be released to mark the new year, according to an announcement carried by state TV on Sunday morning.

It remains unclear whether anti-junta protesters or journalists jailed covering the coup will be among those freed.

There was also no mention of Australian academic Sean Turnell, a former adviser to ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who was arrested shortly after the coup.

He is currently on trial for allegedly breaching the official secrets act, which carries a maximum 14-year jail sentence.

The exact details of his alleged offence have not been made public, though state television has said he had access to "secret state financial information" and had tried to flee the country.

Myanmar typically grants an annual amnesty to thousands of prisoners to mark its traditional Buddhist New Year holiday - which in previous years have been joyous affairs with city-wide water fights.

But this year, with the military continuing its bloody crackdown on dissent, the streets in many major cities have been silent as people protest junta rule.

UK

‘Inhumane and heartless’ – Civil Service unions oppose Rwanda asylum plan

By Jane Deith

16 Apr 2022

Two Civil Service unions have voiced their opposition to the government’s plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, one describing it as ‘inhumane’ and ‘heartless’.

The Home Secretary gave her personal approval to push the plan through, after some officials were concerned about whether it would be value for money.

The Government insists that Rwanda is a “fundamentally safe and secure country” which has a track record of supporting asylum seekers.

Priti Patel facing mutiny over Rwanda one-way ticket policy

UK home secretary Priti Patel in Kigali, Rwanda

Mason Boycott-Owen
April 16 2022 

British home secretary Priti Patel is facing a mutiny from civil servants over her controversial Rwanda policy after a top official formally challenged its value for money.

Unions representing staff in Whitehall warned of mass walk-outs and transfer requests over the ethical and legal implications of the policy to send illegal migrants 5,000 miles to the African country for processing.

The threat will exacerbate concerns among top Tories about the dysfunctional nature of the Home Office which has repeatedly faced questions over its handling of immigration.

It comes after Britain’s prime minister Boris Johnson said he was prepared to take on an “army of politically motivated lawyers” in the courts to ensure that his policy to slash illegal migration into the UK was enacted.

Home Office sources confirmed that Ms Patel had to force civil servants to sign off on the Rwanda Partnership plan by issuing a ministerial direction, required when officials challenge policy proposals on value-for-money grounds.

The direction is thought to have been sought by Matthew Rycroft, the permanent secretary at the Home Office.

It is only the second ministerial direction the Home Office has received in the last 30 years, alongside the bringing forward of the Windrush Compensation Scheme.

This is despite the policy expected to cost between £20,000 and £30,000 (€24,100-€36,200) per migrant covering hotel accommodation before departure, the flight to Rwanda and the first three months of accommodation there.

Immigration minister Tom Pursglove also said yesterday that sending migrants to Rwanda would save Britain money in the “longer term”.

Ms Patel set out details in Kigali, the Rwandan capital, of a deal to send single male asylum seekers who enter the UK illegally to Rwanda where they would be given an opportunity to build a “new life”.

Research from the Find Out Now polling company showed it was overwhelmingly popular among Conservative and Leave voters, while as few as one in 10 Labour voters back it.

The policy has also caused deep disquiet in Whitehall, where civil servants could walk out rather than implement the policy.

One official, who works outside the Home Office, said the Rwanda plan was “taking ‘hostile environment’ to a whole new level”.

Canada is failing Ukrainians displaced by Russian invasion, former head of Doctors Without Borders says

April 16, 2022
Via The Globe and Mail: Canada is failing Ukrainians displaced by Russian invasion, former head of Doctors Without Borders says. BEHIND PAYWALL

Excerpt:

Ottawa needs to do more to help Ukrainian refugees navigate the complexities of paperwork and logistics to come to Canada, the former head of Doctors Without Borders says, lest it reprise past blunders.

“We know the failures in Afghanistan of not living up to our promises. And we cannot repeat history,” said Joanne Liu, a Montreal emergency physician who returned recently from three weeks in Ukraine, where she was struck by the warm reception to her Canadian passport.

 
Many in the country remember early Canadian promises to stand by Ukraine, making Canada “a place of promise, a place of hope,” Dr. Liu said. “We have to live up to our promise,” she added, pointing to bureaucratic obstacles Ukrainians must navigate before coming to Canada.

 
“We absolutely need to lift the red tape. For people who are seeking to come here, it’s not good enough to just say, ‘Well, we have extended the hours of our consulates.’ ”

 
For example, Ukrainians need better linguistic support to complete paperwork in an unfamiliar language, she said. “You have to facilitate it. That means you should staff better, you should have people who speak the language.”

 
In early March, the Canadian government said it was creating a telephone hotline as “a dedicated service channel for Ukraine immigration inquiries.” That line offers service in French and English only, and suggests anyone who speaks another language write in using a web form. The Globe and Mail called the number six times on Friday, but was not able to reach anyone. When The Globe selected an option for callers “regarding the situation in Ukraine,” the hotline hung up each time.

 
Global Affairs Canada referred questions to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, which did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Friday.

CALL IT A BABUSHKA INSTEAD

Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen confronted by Muslims over headscarf issue

Marine Le Pen, French far-right National Rally party candidate, speaks with a Muslim woman in Pertuis, France. Photo: Reuters/Christian Hartmann

Catherine Le Nouvelle
April 16 2022 

Muslim headscarves took centre stage in France’s presidential campaign yesterday amid far-right candidate Marine Le Pen’s push to ban them .

Both she and rival Emmanuel Macron were confronted by women in headscarves who asked why their clothing choices should be caught up in politics.

Mr Macron wouldn’t ban religious clothing, but he has overseen the closure of several mosques and Islamic groups. Many Muslims feel the presidential campaign has unfairly stigmatised their faith.

At a farmers’ market in the southern town of Pertuis, a woman in a blue-and-white head covering approached Ms Le Pen as the candidate weaved past fishmongers and vendors to greet supporters.

“What is the headscarf doing in politics?” the woman asked.

Ms Le Pen defended her position, calling the headscarf a “uniform imposed over time by people who have a radical vision of Islam”.

“That’s not true,” countered the woman. “I started to wear the veil when I was an older woman... For me it is a sign of being a grandmother.”

The woman noted that her father had served in the French military for 15 years.

Ms Le Pen’s opposition to the headscarf has encapsulated what her critics say makes her dangerous to French unity, by stigmatising millions of French Muslims.

Mr Macron also spoke with a woman in a Muslim headscarf, in a lively exchange on broadcaster France Info. He sought to distance himself from Ms Le Pen by saying he would not change any laws, but defended an existing ban on headscarves in schools.

The woman, Sara El Attar, said she felt insulted by previous comments by Mr Macron where he suggested headscarves destabilise relations between men and women.

She repeated the argument that many veiled women in France make, that people mistakenly think they are veiled not through personal choice, but because men make them wear headscarves.

Mr Macron sought to defend his record. “For me personally, the question of the headscarf is not an obsession,” he said.

  

‘Radical vision’: France vote spotlights Muslim headscarves

President Macron has defended the existing ban on headscarves in schools while election opponent Marine Le Pen seeks to outlaw coverings outright.

Protesters hold a placard reading 'Veiled or not veiled, we want equality' as they take part in a demonstration in Perpignan, southwestern France

 [File: Raymond Roig/AFP]

Published On 15 Apr 2022

Muslim headscarves took centre stage in France’s presidential campaign amid far-right candidate Marine Le Pen’s push to entirely ban them in the country with western Europe’s largest Muslim population.

Both Le Pen and rival Emmanuel Macron, facing a tightly contested April 24 runoff vote, were confronted by women in headscarves on Friday who asked why their clothing choices should be caught up in politics.

Macron said he would not ban religious clothing, but he has overseen the closure of several mosques and Islamic groups. And many Muslims in France feel the presidential campaign has unfairly stigmatised their faith.

At a farmers’ market in the southern town of Pertuis, a woman in a blue-and-white head covering approached Le Pen as the candidate weaved past fishmongers and vendors to greet supporters.

“What is the headscarf doing in politics?” the woman asked.

Le Pen defended her position calling the headscarf a “uniform imposed over time by people who have a radical vision of Islam”.

“That’s not true,” countered the woman. “I started to wear the veil when I was an older woman… For me it is a sign of being a grandmother.” The woman noted her father served in the French military for 15 years.

Speaking to RTL radio on Thursday, Le Pen explained how her pledge to ban the headscarf in all public spaces would be implemented, saying it would be enforced by police in the same way as seatbelt-wearing in cars.

“People will be given a fine in the same way that it is illegal to not wear your seat belt. It seems to me that the police are very much able to enforce this measure,” she said.

Le Pen’s opposition to the headscarf has encapsulated what her critics say makes her dangerous to French unity by stigmatising millions of French Muslims. If she becomes president, Le Pen said she would also slash immigration and wants to outlaw ritual slaughter, which would restrict French Muslims’ and Jews’ access to kosher and halal meat.

Macron, too, debated a woman in a Muslim headscarf on Friday in a lively exchange on broadcaster France-Info. He sought to distance himself from Le Pen by saying he would not change any laws, but defended an existing ban on headscarves in schools as part of France’s secular principles.

The woman, Sara el-Attar, said she felt insulted by previous comments by Macron when he suggested headscarves destabilise relations between men and women.

French women “have been castigated these recent years for a simple scarf, without any leader deigning to denounce this injustice”, she said.

‘Not an obsession’

El-Attar repeated the argument many veiled women in France make: people mistakenly think they are veiled not through personal choice, but because men make them wear headscarves.

Macron sought to defend his record. “For me personally, the question of the headscarf is not an obsession,” Macron said.

But critics say his government stoked prejudice against Muslims by cracking down on what it has claimed are efforts by some Muslims to carve out spaces in France for stricter interpretations of Islam. The government has gone after some schools, mosques and Islamic associations.

Le Pen, 53, has toned down her anti-immigration rhetoric during campaigning this year and has focused instead on household spending, putting her closer than ever to power, opinion polls indicate.

A Note on Marx’s Atheistic Humanism

by William Manson / April 16th, 2022 /DISSIDENT VOICE

Karl Marx’s thought is justifiably characterized as “materialist.”  In his doctoral dissertation, he had contrasted the theories of Democritus and Epicurus, both of whom rejected Pythagorean-Platonic notions of a separate world of the “spirit” (i.e., of eternal “patterns” from which transient, this-world things supposedly derived).  Like many radical humanists of the mid-19th century, Marx was profoundly influenced by Feuerbach’s dismissal of an illusory “God” as in actuality a projection of the potential powers of humanity.  Not only Christianity but virtually all world religions had insisted on an after-worldly disposition of the immortal “soul” — transmigration, inferior reincarnation (bad karma), infernal punishment for this-worldly “sins,” and so on.  (By contrast, Nietzsche’s Zarathustra reassured the dying tightrope walker that there was no hell to fear — death was simply a termination.)

Despotic rulers, from times immemorial, had utilized priestly elites to indoctrinate their credulous “subjects” in humble obedience — lest the “God” of reigning ideology impose horrific, never-ending punishments on their recalcitrant, immortal souls.  Even into the 20th century, most people worldwide remained indoctrinated in some variant of belief in virtuous humility as a crucial basis for after-worldly “salvation” (variously depicted).  Oppressed populations, fearing disease and death, would solicit “divine” protection through prayer, and offer ritual sacrifices as a quid pro quo for divine favor.  To Marx (as well as Freud), all this was a survival of fear-dominated times, in which hapless humans, unable to comprehend the class-based origins of their oppression, desperately looked skyward for fantasized rescue.

Where did this almost-universal notion of the “soul” come from?  Nineteenth century anthropologists concluded that, in pre-modern times, the occurrence of death remained a mystery.  At one moment, the dying loved one was still talking, her features lively and animated–and then, inert stillness.  (“The rest is Silence” — Hamlet.)  To observers of such a moment, something appeared to have left the body, which remained in place but now forever motionless.  This “something,” our remote ancestors must have (falsely) surmised, must have ascended to some other realm or dimension.  Thus, the after-worldly, immortal “soul” — and, along with it, absurd, this-worldly anxieties about its “salvation.”  For Marx, such preoccupation was a terrible travesty, a deluded affront to confronting the very real, material problems of survival and to struggling to overcome the deprivations of being oppressed and exploited.

William Manson is the author of The Psychodynamics of Culture (Greenwood Press). Read other articles by William.

NATO’s “Weapons for Peace” Program and Russia’s Diplomatic Demarche

by Nauman Sadiq / April 16th, 2022 /DISSIDENT VOICE

Karen DeYoung reported for the Washington Post Thursday that Russia sent a formal diplomatic note to the United States on Tuesday, accusing Washington and its NATO clients of insidiously subverting peace process with Ukraine initiated at the Istanbul talks on March 29, and the subsequent withdrawal of Russian forces from the outskirts of Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy, thus ending the month-long offensive in Ukraine.

The document, titled “On Russia’s concerns in the context of massive supplies of weapons and military equipment to the Kiev regime,” was forwarded to the State Department by the Russian Embassy in Washington, in which Russia accused NATO of trying to “pressure Ukraine to abandon peace negotiations with Russia in order to continue the bloodshed.”

Moscow also warned Washington that US and NATO shipments of the “most sensitive” weapons systems to Ukraine were “adding fuel” to the conflict and could bring “unpredictable consequences.” Russia experts suggested Moscow, which had labeled weapons convoys coming into the country as legitimate military targets but had not thus far attacked them, might be preparing to do so.

“They have targeted supply depots in Ukraine itself, where some of these supplies have been stored,” George Beebe, former director of Russia analysis at the CIA and Russia adviser to former vice president Dick Cheney, told the news outlet. “The real question is do they go beyond attempting to target the weapons on Ukrainian territory, try to hit the supply convoys themselves and perhaps the NATO countries on the Ukrainian periphery” that serve as transfer points for the US supplies.

If Russian forces stumble in the next phase of the war as they did in the first, “then I think the chances that Russia targets NATO supplies on NATO territory go up considerably,” Beebe said. “There has been an assumption on the part of a lot of us in the West that we could supply the Ukrainians really without limits and not bear significant risk of retaliation from Russia,” he said. “I think the Russians want to send a message here that that’s not true.”

Among the items Russia identified as “most sensitive” were “multiple-launch rocket systems,” such as Slovakia’s illicit deal with NATO for transferring its Soviet-era S-300 air defense system to Ukraine in return for the transatlantic military alliance delivering four Patriot missile systems to Slovakia, and the Soviet-era Strela-10, SA-8, SA-10, SA-12, SA-13 and SA-14 mobile air defense systems, with range higher than Stingers and having capability to hit cruise missiles, and myriads of other advanced multiple rocket launchers, that NATO covertly provided to Ukraine.

The Czech Republic had delivered tanks, multiple rocket launchers, howitzers and infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine among military shipments that had reached hundreds of millions of dollars and would continue, two Czech defense sources confided to Reuters.

Defense sources confirmed a shipment of five T-72 tanks and five BVP-1, or BMP-1, infantry fighting vehicles seen on rail cars in photographs on Twitter and video footage last week. “For several weeks, we have been supplying heavy ground equipment – I am saying it generally but by definition it is clear that this includes tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, howitzers and multiple rocket launchers,” a senior defense official said.

“What has gone from the Czech Republic is in the hundreds of millions of dollars.” The senior defense official said the Czechs were also supplying “a range of anti-aircraft weaponry.” Independent defense analyst Lukas Visingr said “short-range air-defense systems Strela-10, or SA-13 Gopher in NATO terminology, had been spotted on a train apparently bound for Ukraine.”

Russia accused the Western powers of violating “rigorous principles” governing the transfer of weapons to conflict zones, and of being oblivious to “the threat of high-precision weapons falling into the hands of radical nationalists, extremists and bandit forces in Ukraine.”

Washington, the diplomatic demarche said, was pressuring other countries to stop any military and technical cooperation with Russia, and those with Soviet-era weapons to transfer them to Ukraine. “We call on the United States and its allies to stop the irresponsible militarization of Ukraine, which implies unpredictable consequences for regional and international security,” the note added.

Russia’s “paranoid attitude” accusing Washington and its NATO clients of scuttling peace process with Ukraine and orchestrating a proxy war on Russia’s vulnerable western flank by funding, training, arming and internationally legitimizing Ukraine’s ultra-nationalist militias in order to destabilize and provoke Russia aside, in the spirit of apparent “reconciliation and multilateralism” defining the Biden administration’s approach to conducting international diplomacy, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken handed over the “power of attorney” to the Ukrainian leadership to reach a negotiated settlement with Russia without any pressure, whatsoever, from Washington to escalate hostilities with its arch-rival.

On April 3, confirming in an NBC News interview that Ukrainian President Zelensky had Washington’s full confidence to reach a peaceful settlement with Russia, Blinken, while assuming the air of “magnanimity and rapprochement,” revealed that President Joe Biden’s administration would support whatever the Ukrainian people wanted to do to bring the war to an end.

“We’ll be looking to see what Ukraine is doing and what it wants to do,” Blinken said. “And if it concludes that it can bring this war to an end, stop the death and destruction and continue to assert its independence and its sovereignty – and ultimately that requires the lifting of sanctions – of course, we will allow that.”

Blinken argued with overtones of diplomatic sophistry that although Putin had allegedly “failed to accomplish his objectives” in Ukraine – “subjugating Kyiv, demonstrating Russia’s military prowess and dividing NATO members” – he said it still made sense to pursue a negotiated settlement.

“Even though he’s been set back, even though I believe this is already a strategic defeat for Vladimir Putin, the death and destruction that he’s wreaking every single day in Ukraine … are terrible, and so there’s also a strong interest in bringing those to an end.”

Lending credence to ostensible “American neutrality” and “hands-off approach” to the Ukraine conflict, the Wall Street Journal published a misleading report on April 1 that German chancellor Olaf Scholz had offered Volodymyr Zelensky a chance for peace days before the launch of the Russian military offensive, but the Ukrainian president turned it down.

The newly elected German chancellor told Zelensky in Munich on February 19 “that Ukraine should renounce its NATO aspirations and declare neutrality as part of a wider European security deal between the West and Russia,” the Journal revealed. The newspaper also claimed that “the pact would be signed by Mr. Putin and Mr. Biden, who would jointly guarantee Ukraine’s security.”

However, Zelensky rejected the offer to make the concession and avoid confrontation, saying that “Russian President Vladimir Putin couldn’t be trusted to uphold such an agreement and that most Ukrainians wanted to join NATO.”

While making the preposterous allegation that the hapless Ukrainian leadership vetoed NATO’s “flexible and conciliatory approach” to peacefully settle the dispute in order to absolve the transatlantic military alliance for its confrontational approach to Russia since the inception in 1949, the Journal report conveniently overlooked the crucial fact that last November, the US and Ukraine signed a Charter on Strategic Partnership.

The agreement unequivocally confirmed “Ukraine’s aspirations for joining NATO” and “rejected the Crimean decision to re-unify with Russia” following the 2014 Maidan coup. Then in December, Russia, in the last-ditch effort to peacefully resolve the dispute, proposed a peace treaty with the US and NATO.

The central Russian proposal was a written agreement assuring that Ukraine would not join the NATO military alliance and, in return, Russia would drawdown its troop buildup along Ukraine’s borders. When the proposed treaty was contemptuously rebuffed by Washington, it appeared the die was cast for Russia’s inevitable invasion of Ukraine.

Following the announcement of drawdown of Russian forces in Ukraine, specifically scaling back Russian offensive north of the capital, by the Russian delegation at the Istanbul peace initiative on March 29, the Ukrainian delegation, among other provisions, demanded “security guarantees in terms similar to Article 5 of the NATO charter,” the collective defense clause of the transatlantic military alliance.

CNN reported on April 1 that Western officials were taken aback by “the surprising Ukrainian proposal.” “We are in constant discussion with Ukrainians about ways that we can help ensure that they are sovereign and secure,” White House communications director Kate Bedingfield said. “But there is nothing specific about security guarantees that I can speak to at this time.”

“Ukraine is not a NATO member,” Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab told the BBC when asked whether the UK is prepared to become a guarantor of Ukrainian independence. “We’re not going to engage Russia in direct military confrontation,” he added.

While noting that Russian peace negotiations were “nothing more than a smokescreen,” Western diplomats contended that an Article 5-type commitment to Ukraine was unlikely given that the US and many of its allies, including the UK, were not willing to put their troops in direct confrontation with Russian forces. The theory that Russia would not attack Ukraine if it had Western security guarantees appears to still be a bigger risk than the US and its allies are willing to take.

As a way for Russia to “save face in the negotiations,” the Ukrainians even went to the extent of suggesting that any such security guarantees would not apply to the separatist territories in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. However, a number of US and Western officials have taken a skeptical approach to potential security guarantees, with many saying it is still premature to discuss any contingencies as the negotiations proceed.

Contradicting the misleading reports hailing Ukraine’s political and military leadership as purported “masters of their own destinies,” President Joe Biden told the EU leaders at a summit last month in Brussels that “any notion that we are going to be out of this in a month is wrong”, and that the EU and NATO needed to prepare for “a long-term pressure campaign against Russia.”

US and European officials voiced skepticism over Russia’s “sincerity and commitment” towards the peace talks, underlining that only a full ceasefire, troop withdrawal and return of captured territory to Ukraine would be enough to trigger discussions over lifting sanctions on Russia’s economy.

“The notion that you would reward Putin for occupying territory doesn’t make sense … it would be very, very difficult to countenance” a senior EU official told the Financial Times. “There’s a disconnect between these negotiations, what really happens on the ground, and the total cynicism of Russia. I think we need to give them a reality check,” the official added.

Western countries were discussing both “enforcement of existing sanctions” and drawing up “potential additional measures” to increase pressure on Russian president Vladimir Putin, senior EU and US officials told the British newspaper. They were not discussing a possible timeframe for easing sanctions, they said.

Advising Ukrainians to hold out instead of rushing for securing peace deal with Russia, the Sunday Times reported, senior British officials were urging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to instruct his negotiators to refuse to make concessions during peace negotiations with Russian counterparts.

A senior government source said there were concerns that allies were “over-eager” to secure an early peace deal, adding that a settlement should be reached only when Ukraine is in the strongest possible position.

In a phone call and subsequently during a surprise visit to Kyiv, Boris Johnson warned President Zelensky that President Putin was a “liar and a bully” who would use talks to “wear you down and force you to make concessions.” The British prime minister also told MPs it was “certainly inconceivable that any sanctions could be taken off simply because there is a ceasefire.” London was making sure there was “no backsliding on sanctions by any of our friends and partners around the world,” he added.

Considering the backdrop of the Russo-Ukraine War that was deliberately orchestrated by NATO powers to insidiously destabilize and internationally isolate Russia, it stretches credulity that the powerless Ukrainian leadership “wields veto power” over NATO’s policy to reach a negotiated settlement with Russia.

Are readers gullible enough to assume the Ukrainian proposals for a peace treaty with Russia were put forth without prior consultation with NATO patrons and the latter cannot exercise enough leverage to compellingly persuade the impervious Ukrainian leadership to reach a peaceful settlement with Russia?

In conclusion, it’s obvious the credulous Ukrainian leadership’s insistence on seeking the EU membership amidst the war and demanding security guarantees in terms similar to Article 5 of the NATO charter instead of imploring for immediate ceasefire to save Ukrainian lives were clearly the deal-breaker stipulations that were deliberately inserted in the draft of Ukrainian proposals by perfidious NATO advisers to the naïve Ukrainian politicians in order to sabotage the peace negotiations with Russia.Facebook

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Nauman Sadiq is an Islamabad-based attorney, columnist and geopolitics’ analyst who has a particular interest in the politics of Af-Pak and MENA regions, energy politics, and Petro-imperialism. Read other articles by Nauman.

Tunisian weavers turn rags into eco-friendly rugs

Najet unravels an old pair of jeans, raw material for a designer carpet: traditional, eco-friendly crafts are being adapted for new markets thanks to a project born in the Tunisian desert.

© FETHI BELAID A Tunisian craftswoman weaves a rug at a workshop run by Shanti, a social enterprise that helps artisans from across the North African country

© FETHI BELAID Najet works in the southwestern Tunisian oasis of Nefta

"I learned to weave at a young age, from my mother," said the 52-year-old from the oasis town of Nefta, 500 kilometres (310 miles) south of Tunis.

Now, she is making a living from it.

She is selling her Turkish-style kilim rugs via Shanti, a social enterprise that helps artisans from across the North African country reach buyers and bring vital revenue into some of its most marginalised communities.

© FETHI BELAID Fatima Alhamal, local coordinator for Shanti, whose staff use an eclectic array of old clothing from the flea market, giving them a new life as rugs

Shanti is the brainchild of Najet's Franco-Tunisian nephew Mehdi Baccouche.


"Unstitching old jumpers, tearing up old cotton garments, making rugs out of them, it's a folk art found in all Tunisian homes," he told AFP.

While the skill "has been around forever", reaching buyers is a challenge, he added.

Back in 2014, he had asked his aunt to weave carpets for his friends, soon moving to selling them via Facebook.

Seeing the potential, two years later he created Shanti, which buys carpets and takes charge of getting them to consumers.

It also employs designers who work with artisans to improve their design skills and make their products more marketable.

"These are my creations, they come out of my imagination and Shanti approved them," Najet said.

- 'Recycle clothes' -

Najet uses an eclectic array of old pullovers, socks and assorted pass-me-downs from the local flea market, giving them a new life as rugs.

She has little fear of running out of raw materials.

Despite a lean patch, the Tunisian clothes industry still keeps 1,600 firms in business, providing 100 times that many jobs.

In Nefta, a town of some 22,000 people, Shanti has also set up a haberdashery where weavers have free access to balls of wool recycled from second-hand clothes.

The association's local coordinator Fatima Alhamal, Najet's daughter, says the store makes "a huge difference".

Previously, "craftswomen had to go and find materials, which they had to pay for, then earned 12-15 euros for a kilim".

Now Shanti pays them 40 euros ($43) apiece, up to a maximum of four a month each to avoid pressuring them into overwork.

It then sells them in Tunisia and abroad.

The association also helps the workers improve their work spaces, for example with air conditioning -- a necessity in southern Tunisia's blistering summer heat.

The work has changed the social standing of the women involved.

"People see them completely differently now," Fatma said.

Najet says she is happy to be making a living from home.

"I don't have to go out for anything, I can cook and eat here, I can work comfortably."

- Eco-friendly -

Baccouche said at first people teased him for getting involved in "an old ladies' craft".

But the project fills a valuable niche in an area where women are disproportionately underemployed, and which has faced an ever-worsening economic crisis since before the revolt that sparked the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011.

"It was important to show that you can be an old woman who never went to school and doesn't know how to use the internet, but you can still do something and earn a living from it," he said.

Yet the association also tries to avoid creating conflicts within families.

It pays the women not in cash but in post office accounts where their husbands can't see how much they are making -- or use it to pay household bills.

Using its system of ordering in advance, Shanti runs a boutique in the capital Tunis.

"L'Artisanerie" also acts as a space for coordinators who train artisans from other rural areas, making bamboo furniture, poetry and embroidery.

In four years, more than 200 producers have been able to find a market for their work. Sixty work every day for L'Artisanerie.

"We're trying to show that you can make something 100 percent Tunisian, with Tunisian materials and skills, but with a design that fits current tastes," Baccouche said.

Some products, joint creations by artisans and Shanti designers, are sold to design-conscious Tunisians.

Others are exported or sold to bigger firms -- such as Indigo, a manufacturer for Zara, or Mango, which recently bought 164 rugs made from recycled jeans.

For now, the system still relies on some support from non-profits such as Oxfam or on Danish development aid.

But Baccouche has big ambitions, with Shanti expanding into sustainable agriculture and eco-tourism.

"We're trying to set up an entire, eco-friendly production and logistics chain," he said.

fka/par/kir

ECOCIDE
Mexico's Pemex battles fire at Salina Cruz refinery


MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexican state oil company Pemex was on Saturday fighting to quell a fire burning in a gasoline storage tank at the Salina Cruz refinery in the southern Oaxaca state, local media and a Pemex source said, in the latest accident to hit the company.

© Reuters/STRINGER A view shows a fire as Mexican state oil company Pemex fight to quell a fire in a gasoline storage tank at the Salina Cruz refinery, in Salina Cruz

© Reuters/STRINGER A view shows a fire as Mexican state oil company Pemex fight to quell a fire in a gasoline storage tank at the Salina Cruz refinery, in Salina Cruz

The fire that started on Friday had been partially controlled by emergency crews, but winds rekindled the blaze on Saturday, an oil company source told Reuters, ruling out damage to other areas of the facility.

© Reuters/Daniel Becerril FILE PHOTO: The logo of Mexican oil company Pemex is pictured at Reynosa refinery, in Tamaulipas state

The source added that no injuries were reported in the incident.

Television images showed a dense plume of black smoke billowing from inside the refinery.

In August, the Salina Cruz refinery was hit by another fire.

The Oaxaca Civil Protection body reported on its Twitter account that access to the complex was currently restricted by the authorities.

"With the support of the (local government) and (police) the area is being cordoned off to avoid problems," it said.

Salina Cruz has a capacity to process 330,000 barrels per day of crude oil, according to data from Eikon Refinitiv.

In November, another fire broke out at a Pemex refinery complex in northern Mexico but it was brought under control without any injuries to staff or disruption to production.

(Reporting by Ana Isabel Martinez and Noé Torres; Editing by Drazen Jorgic and Franklin Paul)

Thai royalists defend Putin as pro-democracy camp condemns war


Supporters of Thailand's King Maha Vajiralongkorn and Queen Suthida gather before a religious ceremony, at The Grand Palace in Bangkok, Thailand, on Nov 1, 2020.
Reuters file

APRIL 11, 2022

By JITSIREE THONGNOI

SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST

After years of defending Thailand's monarchy from a pro-democracy movement, the Southeast Asian country's royalist groups have turned their focus to Russia and its leader Vladimir Putin as he continues to wage war against Ukraine.

In recent weeks, the Facebook page of royalist group Thai Move Institute has been flooded with posts about the downside of sanctions imposed on Russia, and reports of questionable veracity - many from a website styling itself as The Truth - saying that Ukraine used fake news to "slander" Putin. 

The group's motto is "Thailand's direction upon the royal footsteps". It is part of a network of conservative voices allied to the military and royalist establishment led by Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha.

These voices have denounced the country's youth-led pro-democracy movement, which has held street protests calling for reform of the monarchy and constitutional changes, and railed against online attacks on King Maha Vajiralongkorn's wealth and conduct.

Royalists have supported the use of Section 112 of Thailand's criminal code - the lèse-majeste law that outlaws criticism of the royal family and carries punishments of up to 15 years in jail - against members of the pro-democracy movement.

Thailand has become increasingly polarised in recent years, with a deepening ideological divide that can be traced back to at least 2006 - when former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra was ousted in a coup - pitching conservative, pro-establishment voices against pro-democracy activists seeking change.

Tensions have only heightened as the pandemic-battered economy struggles with a subdued tourism outlook and higher bills for importing energy.

The population is also divided over Russia's invasion, with some groups, as in other Southeast Asian nations, stating their belief that Kyiv in tandem with Nato and the US forced Putin's hand.

Critics say Thailand's royalists came out in favour of Putin either as a "knee-jerk reaction" to the opposition's stance on the war, or as a result of long-held resentments towards the US, which some Thais perceive as a threat to the country's monarchy.

While Thailand voted to condemn Moscow's aggression against Ukraine during a UN General Assembly session in March, it stopped short of voting Russia out of the UN Human Rights Council, abstaining on April 7 alongside other Asian nations such as Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and India.

Thailand's Permanent Mission to the UN said in a statement that the country was "deeply concerned with the escalation of conflicts and humanitarian crises in Ukraine" especially with the "alleged human rights atrocities against civilians, including in Bucha".

But it said suspending a state's membership of a UN body was a decision that "cannot be taken lightly", adding "we are of the view that any action taken should be impartial, transparent and comprehensive".

Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of Thailand’s opposition Move Forward Party, issued a statement supporting Russia’s suspension from the UN Human Rights Council. PHOTO: Facebook

However, opposition politician Pita Limjaroenrat has taken a different stance.

On April 9, the leader of the Move Forward Party - which has denounced the 2014 coup that first brought Prayuth to power and wants Thailand's lèse-majeste law revoked - issued a statement on Facebook supporting Russia's suspension from the UN Human Rights Council.

Tyrell Haberkorn, a professor of Southeast Asian Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said Thailand's official statements on Russia, and its decision not to support the human rights council vote in particular, "indicate the international effects of rising authoritarianism domestically".

Royalist support for Russia "seems to be a knee-jerk reaction in response to the condemnation of the invasion by the democracy movement", she said.

"Were the democracy movement to support Russia, then I suspect conservative royalists would support Ukraine."

Zachary Abuza, a professor specialising in Southeast Asian politics and security at the US' National War College, said Putin had resonated with conservatives in Thailand, particularly his "authoritarian policies, defence of Russian nationalism and traditional values".

"The Thai government and their ultraroyalist backers are geriatrics, completely out of touch with the values, mores, and interests of the younger Thai population," he said.

"They refuse to accept that Thai society has changed, they have a nostalgic, and cherry-picked, view of Thai history and culture, similar to Putin."

Conspiracies abound

In recent weeks former major general and medical doctor Rienthong Nanna, an ultraroyalist, has been posting pro-Russia messages on Facebook, including discussing the election wins last week of pro-Putin politicians Viktor Orban, Hungary's prime minister, and Aleksandar Vučić, the populist Serbian president.

He is the founder of the Rubbish Collection Organisation, an online vigilante group that scours the internet for potential lèse-majeste cases and likens offenders to human garbage.

A day after Russia began its military assault on Ukraine, Rienthong said: "I'd like to send my support to President Putin and the Russian army. I have admired your leadership, bravery and resolution. You have always been an honest and trustful friend to Thailand like President Xi Jinping ."

The post was liked more than 18,000 times.

Sondhi Limthongkul, another royalist who staged anti-government street protests in the months before former prime minister Thaksin was forced out of power, recently wrote to his 3.5 million Facebook followers about the Bucha massacre.

One commenter said he believed the killings were staged because "it's what the Ukrainian president is good at".

Supporters of Move Forward, however, argue Thailand could burnish its international credentials by taking a stand against the killings in Bucha, where more than 300 people are thought to have died. The pro-democracy camp has urged Prayuth's government to issue a stronger condemnation of Russia.

Janjira Sombatpoonsiri, a visiting fellow at Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and an assistant professor at Chulalongkorn University's Institute of Asian Studies, said establishment figures in Thailand were wary of US-led efforts to intervene in other countries' affairs.

A woman with a face mask and picture of Putin daubed in red takes part in an anti-war protest outside the Russian embassy in Bangkok last month. PHOTO: Reuters

They were particularly sceptical about Washington's "democracy promotion", she said, as it "could threaten not only the elites' status quo but Thai sovereignty".

Royalists viewed US-led military interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya as evidence that the CIA was pushing for regime change to promote democracy, Janjira said, which she said clashes with the idea of "royal nationalism" that sees Thai national identity as interwoven with the supremacy and survival of the monarchy.

"This narrative has been amplified on the internet in the aftermath of [Thailand's] 2014 military putsch," Janjira said. "With the international community, particularly the US, pressuring the junta to reinstall democracy, conspiracy stories frame the pressure as part of a CIA scheme for regime change."

"The storyline also links the US' global democracy advocacy and funding for anti-coup groups with an effort to topple the junta, restore a Thaksin-led government, and reinforce Western hegemony in Southeast Asia," she said.

Abuza, from the National War College, said Bangkok had followed Beijing's lead when it came to its official stance on the war.

"While China may look at the Russian military's poor showing in the war with consternation, China is not going to abandon Putin. That gives Prayuth political cover," Abuza said.

"The younger generation in Thailand sees the invasion for what it is, the extreme action of a dictator with unchecked political power who is running the country into the ground, gutting the rule of law, leaving it economically weaker and more isolated internationally."

This article was first published in South China Morning Post.

300-year-old description of an aurora, or northern lights, found in ancient Chinese texts

Northern lights are usually seen at the earth’s poles, but that is not a requirement.
Reuters

ByKEVIN MCSPADDEN

SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST

APRIL 16, 2022

A team of scientists said an ancient Chinese text describes the oldest known record of what we would call an aurora borealis, or “the northern lights”, which they believe happened in the 10th century BC, or about 300 years before the next chronicle of the celestial event from the Assyrians.

The text was found in the Bamboo Annals , a written history that describes ancient China starting during the mythological period of the Yellow Emperor around 2700BC to the Warring States Period (475–221BC). It describes a “five-coloured light” during the reign of King Zhao (977–957BC) of the Zhou dynasty (1046–256BC).More from AsiaOneRead the condensed version of this story, and other top stories with NewsLite.

According to the paper, published in Advances in Space Research in January, the event happened near an ancient settlement called Haojing, which is now Xianyang in Shanxi province in central China.

This image shows an ancient text that described what is believed to have been the earliest recording of the northern lights. PHOTO: Nagoya University

In the present day, auroras are occasionally observed in China’s far northern Heilongjiang province, but very rarely in the central region of the country.

The study said that the earth’s north magnetic pole is known to have been inclined about 15 degrees closer to central China than at present, and the phenomenon could therefore have been visible to observers in central China at “times of significant magnetic disturbance”.

Marinus Anthony van der Sluijs, an independent researcher based in Canada, said that the presence of the aurora in an important historical record means it was probably an event that was “rare enough to be worthy of inclusion in any annals but not unusual from a scientific point of view”.

His co-author, Hisashi Hayakawa from Nagoya University in Japan, said “The auroral visibility in China indicates an occurrence of a quite intense geomagnetic storm at that time”.

The scientists refer to the event as a “candidate aurora” in the paper because there is not enough evidence to definitively prove that the celestial storm happened.

Crucial to this discovery is that the Bamboo Annals had two versions, a controversial “current text” published in the 16th century, which has been widely deemed unreliable by historians, and an “ancient text” published in the 4th century BC, which is incomplete.

In the current text, the Chinese text described a “fuzzy star”, which has been interpreted to mean a comet. But the ancient text describes a “five-coloured light”, suggesting that an ancient scribe may have incorrectly changed the original text to refer to a comet, said van der Sluijs.

If the research of Hayakawa and van der Sluijs is correct, it would predate the Assyrian record of an aurora event by 300 years, when scholars described the northern lights around 679 – 655BC.

At that time, scholars wrote an Assyrian tablet that had many descriptions of celestial events, including what had been the oldest record of an aurora.

The earliest drawings of an aurora came much later, in the 8th century CE, in a journal written in a Syriac language.

Interestingly, the Buddhist monk Tanmozui appears to have cited the ancient Chinese description of the “five-coloured light” in 520, which he described as a phenomenon that “spread all over the western part [of the sky], which became all blue and red”.

This article was first published in South China Morning Post.