How machine learning can help identify new, deeply buried porphyry copper deposits

Staff Writer | September 4, 2022 | 

Todd Creek project in British Columbia. (Reference image by ArcWest Exploration).

A recent study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, presents two novel machine learning techniques to identify new, deeply buried porphyry copper deposits by characterizing magma fertility.


Fertile magma refers to magmas that can form porphyry deposits.

According to the paper’s authors, their main objective was to improve traditional geochemical indicators plagued by high false-positive rates.

To achieve such a goal, the researchers developed two algorithms, which they called ‘random forest’ and ‘deep neural network.’ They formulated the models using a global dataset of zircon chemistry, which is normally employed to evaluate the porphyry copper deposits in magma.

In detail, they focused the models on 15 trace elements. They then validated the models with independent data sets from two well-characterized porphyry copper deposits in south-central British Columbia, Canada, and Tibet, China.

Both models resulted in a classification accuracy of 90% or greater. The ‘random forest’ model exhibited a false-positive rate of 10%, whereas the ‘deep neural network’ model had a 15% false-positive rate. In comparison, traditional metrics report false positives at a 23%–66% rate.

Europium, yttrium, neodymium, cerium, and other elements emerged as significant indicators of magma fertility.

The models’ performances show that the algorithms can distinguish between fertile and barren magmas using trace element ratios. Notably, model performance was not affected by regional differences or geologic settings.

In the scientists’ view, as the demand for rare earth elements, minerals, and metals surges, machine learning is going to continue to be used as a robust, accurate, and effective approach for identifying and locating porphyry copper resources.

A brief history of U of A; The Gateway

How well do you know your campus newspaper? In the past 112 years, The Gateway has seen a lot of changes while one thing has remained consistent: serving students campus 

 

Helen Zhang

Founding

Two years after the founding of the University of Alberta, The Gateway was born.

The first issue of The Gateway was printed November 21, 1910, establishing itself as the oldest university paper in Western Canada (Brandon University’s The Quill published their first issue two months later). Being situated in Edmonton, commonly known as “The Gateway to the North,” the founders of The Gateway saw the University of Alberta and their newspaper as a “gateway” to opportunities for this geographic region.

“There is something unique about our position in this institution, the university farthest north in America and farthest West in Canada,” said The Gateway staff in the first issue.

In the 112 years since its founding, The Gateway has been front and center for the most significant events facing the university, province, and country – the same year The Gateway was founded, a typhoid outbreak struck campus.

Much like The Gateway of the past two and a half years, The Gateway of 1910 wrote an editorial calling for measures to be taken to protect students’ health,and argued that “present conditions point to the need of some protection for students who may be stricken down by such epidemics in the future.”

They even proposed the introduction of a health insurance fee specifically for students. “The time seems most opportune for the introduction of a scheme of insurance.”

The following year, two Gateway editors contracted typhoid, which led to only six issues being published that year. The Gateway also experienced disrupted publication in 1914-1918 due to influenza outbreak, meaning The Gateway has survived not one, not two, but three pandemics!

The Canadian University Press

The Gateway has also played an important role supporting student journalism in Canada. The Gateway was a founding member of the Canadian University Press (CUP), the association of student newspapers across the country, in January 1938. The paper was represented by Editor-in-Chief Duncan Campbell in the founding and helped produce the collective’s constitution.

“New Year’s Eve in the Manitoba metropolis, seventeen editors, head men on college papers from the Atlantic to the Pacific put their heads together and gave birth to the C.U.P..”

The Gateway goes on Strike

For years, The Gateway selected a new Editor-in-Chief each year through an election by staff. The newspaper, however, was not yet independent from the Students’ Union and the UASU Personnel Board was responsible for the final decision. Typically, the board respected the choice of Gateway staff and hired their choice of EIC as a convention.

In 1972, the UASU overruled The Gateway‘s selection of Ron Yakimchuk, who had been with the paper for five years, and selected Terri Jackson, a student who had never done work for The Gateway. Jackson applied on the basis of changing the consensus-based structure of the organization and the need to focus on local campus news. However, her appointment was met with a backlash from The Gateway staff, resulting in staff unanimously deciding to go on strike.

The strike featured a petition, picket line, and a rally, and The Gateway received messages of support from students, faculty, and other community organizations.

“If you care about your paper, even with all its deficiencies, and do not want an uncritical Student Council mouthpiece, you have a chance Friday to guarantee our right to publish unhindered by petty bureaucrats and power-trippers,” wrote the staff in a special strike issue of the paper.

The UASU carried forward their decision despite protests. This conflict ultimately resulted in all members of that year’s staff resigning and starting their own newspaper called the Poundmaker, housed a block off campus, which lasted until 1974.

During the strike, the former Gateway staff received support from other student papers who viewed the situation as SU overreach and a threat to a free press on campus. As a result of the UASU appointment of this EIC, The Gateway was expelled from CUP by request of the former staff.

I WAS A MEMBER OF THE GATEWAY UNDERGROUND/POUNDMAKER COLLECTIVE WHICH LASTED WELL OVER FOUR YEARS AS AN INDEPENDENT COMMUNITY WEEKLY WHICH RAN OUT OF A COLLECTIVE HOUSE ON CAMPUS, THEN CONTINUED PUBLISHING OUT OF OUR ANARCHIST BOOKSTORE; EREWHON BOOKS.  

The Gateway continued to print the following school year, without any of the institutional knowledge of previous staff. It wasn’t until fall 1975 that the paper started publishing as a member of CUP again. Over the years, new generations of staff joined The Gateway and worked to revitalize The Gateway’s focus on independent journalism — but never forgot the limitations of being owned by a third party. 

The Autonomy and Magazine Era

Fast forward over thirty years, and The Gateway ran a successful campaign to achieve independence from the UASU in the spring of 2002. 71.4 per cent of voters chose to support The Gateway as an independent publication separate from the Students’ Union. Students committed to paying a fee to support this independence, at $2.50 per semester for full-time students, and $1.25 for part-time.

Allowed The Gateway to become a registered non-profit, hire its staff without the UASU’s involvement, and manage its own finances to better fulfill its mandate as the community’s media outlet.

But more importantly, it gave the paper autonomy to cover all aspects of campus life, without facing conflicts of interest or undue interference.

“Finally, we’re free to pursue [our ideas] without having to go through miles of red tape and a mountain of bureaucracy,” said former EIC Dan Lazin.

The next big structural change for The Gateway was the introduction of a monthly magazine, rather than a weekly paper in 2016 — otherwise known as the “swagazine era.” 

The Gateway published its “the end of an era” paper on April 6 — the last printed newspaper (until now!). The issue featured years-worth of alumni tales and renditions of their time publishing the newspaper.

The Magazine went on to be a success for five years, winning the Alberta Magazine Publishers Association “Best New Alberta Magazine” award in 2020.

The following year, The Gateway lost its DFU, necessitating a reassessment of the organization from the ground up. The Gateway became an online publication, staffing was reduced to make a more lean and nimble editorial team, and new revenue sources were pursued by the business management unit — all with a focus on continuing to provide journalism by students, for students.

A New Era

The Gateway has proudly served the students of U of A for 112 years and continues to carry forward that legacy. This paper has survived pandemics, strikes, cuts, and immense changes of all shapes and sizes since 1910; most importantly, it is still around today because of the dedication and hard work of generations of university students.

The first issue of The Gateway wrote “​​We believe that this journal will fill a real need and that it will more and more make its influence felt as a factor in student life” — not only do we believe this to be true today, but we see it also as an aspiration to live up to tomorrow

This print edition of The Gateway is about tapping into our roots, showing what we are capable of, and telling stories that matter to students. Through all the changes we have gone through, we truly believe we are at the beginning of a new chapter of The Gateway.

Welcome to the legacy era!

US internet service company blocks controversial online forum citing 'imminent threats to human life'


By Donie O'Sullivan, CNN
Sun September 4, 2022

New York (CNN)Cloudflare, a major American internet services company, pulled its support for Kiwi Farms, a controversial online message board, Saturday evening citing "imminent threats to human life." 

The move temporarily forced Kiwi Farms offline.

Cloudflare's decision came as Kiwi Farms was linked to a campaign of harassment and violent threats targeting Clara Sorrenti, a Canadian trans woman who is a streamer on Twitch, a platform popular among video gamers.

Sorrenti, better known by her online name "Keffals," launched a campaign calling on Cloudflare to stop providing services to the site.

Fearing for her safety after her personal details were posted online, Sorrenti said she left her home in Canada in recent weeks and traveled to Belfast, Northern Ireland, to stay with a friend. However, she says, the online harassers were able to track her down there.

Police in Northern Ireland are investigating threats made against her there, The Sunday Times reported.

Cloudflare's decision comes amid an ongoing debate about what major internet companies and platforms should do about online hate and harassment campaigns that are organized with the support of their services.

Matthew Prince, the CEO of Cloudflare, has long expressed discomfort about his company's potential role of deciding what can and cannot be online. It is a position echoed by others in Silicon Valley who argue it shouldn't be up to them to police speech online.

"This is an extraordinary decision for us to make and, given Cloudflare's role as an Internet infrastructure provider, a dangerous one that we are not comfortable with," Prince wrote in a blog post Saturday after blocking Kiwi Farms.

But, he said the rhetoric on Kiwi Farms "and specific, targeted threats have escalated over the last 48 hours to the point that we believe there is an unprecedented emergency and immediate threat to human life unlike we have previously seen from Kiwifarms or any other customer before."

"Cloudflare provides security services to Kiwifarms, protecting them from DDoS and other cyberattacks. We have never been their hosting provider," Prince added.
In 2019, Cloudflare pulled its support for the hate-filled forum 8chan after that site was linked to a shooting in El Paso, Texas, that killed 23 people.

Last Wednesday amid increasing public pressure to stop providing support to Kiwi Farms, Cloudflare released a blog post attempting to clarify its position.

The post did not reference Kiwi Farms directly, but Cloudflare said its decisions to stop providing support to 8chan in 2019, and to the neo-Nazi website The Daily Stormer in 2017, had unintended consequences.

"In a deeply troubling response, after both terminations we saw a dramatic increase in authoritarian regimes attempting to have us terminate security services for human rights organizations," the blog post read.

By Sunday morning, Kiwi Farms was mostly back up online, finding another service provider to keep it on the web.

Sorrenti told CNN Sunday she is going to continue to campaign to have all internet service providers refuse Kiwi Farms business.

 Caisse, OMERS hit hard after renewables company Azure Power’s share price plummets

written by Admin September 6, 2022 

Journalists and stakeholders at Azure Solar Power Plant, New Delhi, March 2018.Money Sharma/Getty Images

The stock market crash of India’s renewable power companies has slashed hundreds of millions of dollars from the portfolios of two major Canadian pension funds.

Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec and Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System (OMERS) own 75% of New Delhi-based Azure Power Global Ltd. AzuleneThe company lost two-thirds of the value of its shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange last week, most of which fell on Aug. 29.

On that day, the company announced that CEO Harsh Shah had stepped down after less than two months in office. In addition, since May 2022, we have identified the existence of whistleblower complaints alleging “potential procedural misconduct and misconduct by certain employees of factories belonging to one of our subsidiaries.” did.

After reviewing the whistleblower’s complaint, Azure said it found “deviations from safety and quality standards” and “evidence of manipulation of project data and information by certain employees.” The company said it is taking corrective action and has communicated its findings to the “appropriate authorities.”

The company said on August 1 that it had not completed an assessment of its internal controls over financial reporting and said it would delay filing its annual report. (A company that cannot assess its internal controls cannot prove that its financial statements are accurate.)

On Wednesday’s conference call with investors, board chairman Alan Rosling could not comment on the magnitude of the financial impact of the project data issue, noting that Azure may have to rectify its financial situation. Said it can’t even be ruled out. Asked by analysts if the CEO’s resignation was related to the whistleblower’s report, Rosling said Shah “came to me with a very personal request.” Confidentiality contract with. ”

Over the past six years, Caisse has spent approximately US$488 million to purchase over 34 million shares of Azure Power at an average price of approximately US$14, according to trading records. He closed at $3.55 for shares on Friday and $121.6 million for Caisse shares, an unrealized loss of more than $350 million.

OMERS has purchased approximately 14 million shares of Azure Power stock for a total of US$289.2 million, spending an average of just over US$21 per share since August 2021. The stock was worth US$48.8 million as of Friday, leaving him with a loss of more than US$200 million in just over a year.

Canadian pension funds have invested in giants, with portfolios in the hundreds of billions of dollars and dozens of large investments. Many are home runs rather than strikeouts, as the fund has reported returns above its benchmarks for many years.

Similarly, Caisse and OMERS lock in losses only when you sell shares. If held and Azure Power restored, the two would be able to get their stock back and minimize the pain. Rupesh Agarwal, Azure’s acting CEO, said Wednesday:

But the timing and perspective of the controversy are poor for both Caisse and OMERS.

When Caisse reported half-year results for August featuring a loss of $33.6 billion, huge amount of time addressing US$150 million wipeout of Celsius Network, a major cryptocurrency investment filed For bankruptcy protection in July.

Caisse CEO Charles Emond said in response to a myriad of questions from the media: “Otherwise, all investments will pay off.”

OMERS, on the other hand, has reported industry-leading revenue over the last 18 months. Reversing the story from 2020 when Canada was the only major pension fund lose moneyBut OMERS lost all of its investment in Vue International Bidco PLC, Europe’s largest cinema chain, in July. When a debt restructuring wiped out capitalOMERS jointly owned the chain with Alberta Investment Management Co. (AIMCo).

Caisse spokesperson Kate Monfette said in an email that the fund manager “has strong long-term beliefs in the renewable energy sector, which plays an important role in addressing climate change. We expect to maintain the highest governance and compliance standards and to address any issues that may arise in such matters promptly and effectively.”

OMERS spokesperson Neil Hrab said in an email that pension managers are “investors in quality investments around the world. We are committed to acting with integrity and upholding the highest professional standards. We invest in companies that share our values, including: Consistent with this, we expect the companies in our portfolio to adhere to strong and effective governance and compliance practices, and to avoid related issues. We fully support the necessary and appropriate measures against

Indeed, Azure Power appears to be an ideal investment in multiple themes that are popular with institutional investors, combining the renewable power industry with India’s home to one of the world’s largest economies. rice field.

Founded in 2008, Azure Power says it installed India’s first utility-scale private solar power project in 2009. It issued India’s first ‘green bond’ and claims to own and operate the largest single-site solar power project in India.

It also said it was the first power company outside India to list on the New York Stock Exchange. This makes them subject to US securities laws and regulations, which is typically attractive to major institutional investors.

Caisse joined Azure Power from the beginning as a public company by purchasing US$75 million in shares at $18 per share in its October 2016 initial public offering. I bought more shares on the open market and even participated in several company public offerings.

OMERS was first acquired in August 2021 with an investment of US$219 million.

However, both funds may have made their most serious commitment to Azure Power earlier this year. The company has launched an equity sale called a rights offering. Caisse and OMERS have signed a “backstop agreement” to purchase unsubscribed Azure Power shares in the offering.

When Azure Power announced in January that it had only sold 78.4% of its rights, Caisse and OMERS, which had already bought nearly 11 million shares in the offering for US$15.79 each, stepped in to step in to add another $340. I bought 10,000 shares.

Overall, Caisse spent just under $158 million and OMERS spent just under $70 million, including backstop shares.

As part of their ownership of Azure Power, the two funds placed their employees on the Azure board.

Cyril Cabanes, Managing Director of Caisse’s Asia Pacific Infrastructure Investment business based in Singapore, has been a member of Azure’s Board of Directors since January 2017. November 2019.

Delphine Voeltzel, managing director of OMERS Infrastructure in Asia, joined the board in May.

“As a board of directors, we are deeply concerned, outraged, upset and deeply involved in this issue,” Rosling, chairman of Azure, said on an investor conference call. “It is clear that as a company we need to take a very hard look at ourselves and ask questions like the ones you are asking … to be able to answer quickly and confidently about our management. is needed.”

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Canadian Employment Fell As Young Adults Bear Most Job Losses While Seniors Gain

SEPTEMBER 9, 2022

Canada’s rate hikes are finally beginning to slow unemployment, but the losses are being carried by young adults. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows the unemployment rate increased in July as job losses came in. Breaking it down, most of the jobs lost are young adults, or people in the education and construction industries. Higher interest rates are finally slowing down the job market, but not for seniors, the only employment demographic to grow in Canada.  

Canada’s Unemployment Rate Rises, But Still Unusually Low

Canadian unemployment fell for a third consecutive month. Seasonally adjusted employment fell by 39,700 jobs in July, bringing the unemployment rate 0.5 points higher to 5.4%. Previous losses had been attributed to a lack of workers. “… this time we can’t pin it on a lack of workers,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO. 

Most jobs lost were full time, with education representing the bulk of the decline. “The details of the report weren’t great either, with full-time jobs dropping a hefty 77,200, and both goods-producing and service industries falling,” said Porter. 

He emphasizes while the decline isn’t great, the unemployment rate is still at an overheated level. “[the unemployment rate is] still at a level (5.4%) that had been seen only once in the 45 years before the pandemic,” he explained 

Canada’s Young Adults Are Getting Crushed, They Represent Most Losses

Notable is who was losing their job and searching for work — young adults. Most of the jobs lost last month were people between the age of 20 and 24, representing a loss of 31,200 jobs from a month before. The unemployment rate for this group increased to 8.6%, up 1 point, and significantly higher than the average.

Workers from 25 to 54 years old also took a big hit. The cohort lost 25,700 jobs, with unemployment rising 0.6 points to 4.6% in July. At least the unemployment rate for this demographic is still extremely tight. 

Canada’s seniors saw some losses, but were generally winners of the group. Workers aged 55 and older saw employment rise 10,800 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising just 0.3 points to 5%. Not only is the rate still below the average with the smallest growth of any cohort, it’s also still full employment.

Housing Slowdown Starts To Bite, Conditions Are Cooling Fast

Higher interest rates are beginning to slow down employment. Construction jobs fell 28,200 jobs in July, representing the bulk of losses when combined with education. While education might pick up in the September report, construction is more likely to be a little longer. Rates are only expected to climb further from here. 

“While we can readily find some “yes, buts” in this release, there is no debating that conditions are cooling quickly, with the pullback in construction a clear indication that rate hikes are beginning to bite,” said Porter. 

Remember, these are still strong employment numbers, and the market is considered overheated. However, this is an overheated labor market that’s producing more inflation than economic output. Job losses are likely to result in an economic contraction before inflation stabilizes, making it difficult to use rate cuts to soften the blow without seeing even more risk.

Canada's real problem is not job losses, it's the rush to retire

By Julie Gordon - 3h ago

View of a wood flooring sales office and an employment agency in Toronto

© Reuters/CHRIS HELGREN

OTTAWA (Reuters) - More than a year after the Great Resignation took hold in the United States, Canada is grappling with its own greyer version: The Great Retirement.

Canada's labor force grew in August, but it fell the previous two months and remains smaller than before the summer as tens of thousands of people simply stopped working. Much of this can be chalked up to more Canadians than ever retiring, said Statistics Canada.

It is not just the 65-and-over crowd packing up their offices and hanging up their tool belts. A record number of Canadians aged 55-64 are now reporting they retired in the last 12 months, Statscan data shows. (Graphic: https://tmsnrt.rs/3RVXvNM)

Graphic: Canadians are retiring in droves - https://graphics.reuters.com/CANADA-ECONOMY/EMPLOYMENT/lgpdwdxkovo/chart.png

That is hastening a mass exodus of Canada's most highly skilled workers, leaving businesses scrambling, helping push wages sharply higher and threatening to further drag down the country's sagging productivity, economists say.

"We knew from a long time ago that this wave was coming, that we would get into this moment," said Jimmy Jean, chief economist at Desjardins Group. "And it's only going to intensify in the coming years."

"The risk you have, and in some sectors you're already seeing it, is that people are leaving without there being enough younger workers to take over. So there's a loss of human capital and knowledge."

During the pandemic, retirements fell as many Canadians decided to stay in their jobs longer. With restrictions now lifted, many are rushing to make up for lost time, choosing to travel and spend more time with family.

Related video: Canada posts 40,000 job losses in August

Duration 1:52  View on Watc

Their departures are shrinking the labor force, which could weigh on economic growth at a time when the central bank is aggressively hiking interest rates to counter spiking inflation, fanning fears that the economy will fall into recession.

Canada - which has ramped up immigration to help drive economic growth - has the largest working-age population, as a percentage of the overall population, in the G7, but at the same time its labor force has never been older, according to Statscan. One in five workers in Canada is 55 or older. (Graphic: https://tmsnrt.rs/3RTcMyJ)

Graphic: Canada's labor force is rapidly aging - https://graphics.reuters.com/CANADA-ECONOMY/EMPLOYMENT2/xmvjoajkypr/chart.png

There were 307,000 Canadians in August who had left their job in order to retire at some point in the last year, up 31.8% from one year earlier and 12.5% higher than in August 2019, before the onset of the pandemic, Statscan said.

Adding to the problem, more than 620,000 Canadians entered the 65+ age category during the pandemic, a 9.7% increase in that population group. Despite three straight months of job losses, job vacancies and postings remain well above pre-pandemic levels.

NURSES AND TRUCKERS

The retirement problem is particularly dire in skilled fields like trades and nursing. Since May, Canada has lost 34,400 jobs in healthcare even as a record number of nurses reported working overtime hours.

Those were not jobs being cut, but rather people retiring, said Cathryn Hoy, president of the Ontario Nurses’ Association.

"It's a huge problem right now, because we've had so many that have retired unexpectedly," she said, citing the pandemic, working conditions and a wage dispute with Canada's largest province.

The transportation industry is also grappling with a severe worker shortage, both because of the pandemic-driven frenzy for more goods and as the workforce ages.

"More and more drivers are aging and therefore retiring or contemplating different lifestyle," said Tony Reeder, owner of Trans-Canada College, a career college that trains transport truck drivers.

At the same time, demand is booming from trucking companies, many of which take on student drivers for on-the-job training courses and then hire them outright as soon as they are fully licensed, said Reeder.

"Without trucks and people to drive trucks ... goods will sit at ports and in warehouses as opposed to getting to the destination where they can be consumed," he said.

(Reporting by Julie Gordon in Ottawa; Editing by Steve Scherer and Matthew Lew

India's top court grants bail to journalist two years after his arrest

By Suchitra Mohanty - Friday

FILE PHOTO: Television journalists are seen outside the premises 

of the Supreme Court in New Delhi© Reuters/ANUSHREE FADNAVIS

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India's Supreme Court on Friday granted bail to a journalist two years after he was arrested on accusations of incitement and terrorism while reporting on the alleged rape of a young woman whose death sparked nationwide protests.

Siddique Kappan, a journalist from the southern state of Kerala, and three co-accused were arrested while on the way to report from the site of the alleged rape in Hathras district, in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, in October 2020.

Prosecution for the state of Uttar Pradesh said they were travelling with an intention to incite violence and were collecting funds to run a website full of misinformation.

The top court granted bail to Kappan after observing that no formal charges were filed against him and a document named "Toolkit" recovered by the state police only propagated a call for justice in the rape case.

Kappan's lawyers have said that no evidence was produced in support of the allegations made against him, according to media reports.

A Supreme Court bench chaired by the Chief Justice of India observed during the hearing that every person had the freedom to express their views on the justice delivery system.

"Sometimes protests are necessary as there are some deficiencies," Justice S Ravindra Bhat, one of the judges in the bench, said.

The top court directed Kappan to remain in New Delhi for six weeks after which he can move to his home state Kerala.

(Reporting by Suchitra Mohanty in New Delhi, writing by Shivam Patel, Editing by William Maclean)

Poll shows Bolsonaro narrowing gap to Lula ahead of Brazil election


Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro visits the 45th

 Expointer agricultural fair in Esteio

Fri, September 9, 2022 at 5:40 PM·1 min read

(Reuters) -Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro slightly narrowed his deficit to opponent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of an October election, a poll published on Friday showed.

The survey by Datafolha showed Lula's lead dipping to 11 percentage points in the first round of the election, with 45% support against Bolsonaro's 34%. Bolsonaro recorded 32% support in the previous poll last week.

In an expected second-round run-off, Lula would be elected with 53% of the votes versus 39% for Bolsonaro, a 14 percentage point advantage, down from 15 points one week ago, the poll showed.

Bolsonaro's approval and rejection rates did not change from a week ago, at 31% and 42% respectively.

Datafolha interviewed 2,676 people in person between September 8 and 9. The poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points up or down.

(Reporting by Carolina Pulice and Pedro Fonseca; editing by Richard Pullin)

Brazil election front-runner Lula calls Bolsonaro 'worse than Trump'

Friday

RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) - Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is "a bit worse than (Donald) Trump," leftist election front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Friday, describing him as "ruder, less civilized and a bad copy," of the former U.S. president.


Former President and presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva 

meets evangelical leaders in Sao Goncalo

© Reuters/PILAR OLIVARES

Bolsonaro, a far-right populist who trails Lula in polls ahead of the Oct. 2 election, has long admired Trump and has been dubbed the "Trump of the Tropics." The two were ideological allies, and the time they overlapped was one of closer ties between the two largest nations in the Americas.

By contrast, Bolsonaro was one of the last global leaders to recognize President Joe Biden's election victory, and ties between Brasilia and Washington have become frostier since Trump left office.

 Lula widens lead over Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election

Duration 3:39

View on Watch

Critics fear Bolsonaro may seek to copy Trump and refuse to accept losing to Lula in the upcoming election. For months, Bolsonaro has been making unfounded claims of election fraud, and said the country's widely praised electronic voting system lacks credibility, sparking fears of a constitutional crisis.

Lula, speaking with reporters in Rio de Janeiro, said the world was a better place without people like Bolsonaro and Trump in charge.

"The world is already suffering a lot," Lula said, adding he would have preferred if Bolsonaro had modeled himself on Biden and his Democratic predecessors Barack Obama and Bill Clinton.

Bolsonaro's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Viga Gaier; Editing by David Gregorio)

Analysis-Kim Jong Un's 'decapitation' fears shine through in new N.Korea nuclear law

By Josh Smith - Friday

North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un sits in his vehicle after arriving at a railway station in Dong Dang, Vietnam

© Reuters/Athit Perawongmetha

SEOUL (Reuters) - A new North Korean law calls for "automatic" nuclear launches if the country's leadership or command and control systems are threatened, underscoring leader Kim Jong Un's fears of a so-called "decapitation" strike, experts said.

In an updated nuclear policy law passed on Thursday, North Korea enshrined the right to use preemptive nuclear strikes to protect itself, with Kim saying the legislation makes the country's nuclear status "irreversible" and bars denuclearisation talks.

The law outlines when North Korea could use its nuclear weapons, including if there is an attack on the government's leadership or the nuclear command and control system.

"In case the command and control system over the state nuclear forces is placed in danger owing to an attack by hostile forces, a nuclear strike shall be launched automatically and immediately to destroy the hostile forces," the law states, according to state news agency KCNA.

Kim has "monolithic command" over the nuclear forces, but the law's wording may indicate that if he is killed, a senior official would be designated to authorize nuclear strikes, said Ankit Panda of the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"The basic idea here is to communicate to the United States and South Korea that decapitating the North Korean leadership would not spare them nuclear retaliation," he said, noting that there are precedents in other nuclear states, including the United States during the Cold War.

Both the United States and Russia have employed technical systems, including the Soviet Union's infamous "Dead Hand," designed to ensure nuclear retaliation even if leaders are killed.

For now, that sort of "fail deadly" system in North Korea seems unlikely, Panda said.

"I would expect, for the moment, the fail deadly system would rely on organizational steps: for instance, the First Secretary of the Workers’ Party could confirm that Kim Jong Un had been killed in the course of a conflict, thereby authorizing the release of nuclear weapons," he said.

Although South Korea and the United States say they do not seek to change North Korea's government by force, both countries have war plans that imply strikes against Pyongyang's leadership.

Amid the "fire and fury" tensions of 2017 the Trump administration insisted it had no intention of launching a "bloody nose strike" against Kim, but had privately reviewed and updated war plans for a decapitation strike, according to a book by journalist Bob Woodward.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, who took office in May, has publicly given new emphasis to the so-called "Kill Chain" system to counter a North Korean nuclear attack, and is pouring resources into boosting the weapons that would be used under such plans, including F-35A stealth fighters and missiles launched from submarines.

First developed a decade ago as North Korea ramped up its nuclear development, Kill Chain calls for preemptive strikes against the North's missiles and possibly its senior leadership if an attack appears imminent.

In his speech discussing the new law on Thursday, Kim cited Kill Chain and its related strategies by name, saying they justify North Korea's nuclear development.

"This would seemingly warn away any notions of 'bloody nose' strikes, assuming any administration contemplates that again," Rob York, director for regional affairs at the Hawaii-based Pacific Forum, said of the new law.

(Reporting by Josh Smith. Editing by Gerry Doyle)

New N.Korea law outlines nuclear weapons use, including pre-emptive strikes

By Josh Smith - Thursday

The truce village of Panmunjom inside the demilitarized zone 

(DMZ) separating the two Koreas© Reuters/KIM HONG-JI

SEOUL (Reuters) -North Korea has officially enshrined the right to use preemptive nuclear strikes to protect itself in a new law that leader Kim Jong Un said makes its nuclear status "irreversible" and bars denuclearisation talks, state media reported on Friday.

The move comes as observers say North Korea appears to be preparing to resume nuclear testing for the first time since 2017, after historic summits with then-U.S. President Donald Trump and other world leaders in 2018 failed to persuade Kim to abandon his weapons development.

The North's rubber-stamp parliament, the Supreme People's Assembly, passed the legislation on Thursday as a replacement to a 2013 law that first outlined the country's nuclear status, according to state news agency KCNA.

"The utmost significance of legislating nuclear weapons policy is to draw an irretrievable line so that there can be no bargaining over our nuclear weapons," Kim said in a speech to the assembly, adding that he would never surrender the weapons even if the country faced 100 years of sanctions.

Among the scenarios that could trigger a nuclear attack would be the threat of an imminent nuclear strike; if the country's leadership, people or existence were under threat; or to gain the upper hand during a war, among other reasons.

A deputy at the assembly said the law would serve as a powerful legal guarantee for consolidating North Korea's position as a nuclear weapons state and ensuring the "transparent, consistent and standard character" of its nuclear policy, KCNA reported.

"Actually spelling out the conditions for use are especially rare, and it may simply be a product of North Korea's position, how much it values nuclear weapons, and how essential it sees them for its survival," said Rob York, director for regional affairs at the Hawaii-based Pacific Forum.

PREEMPTIVE STRIKES

The original 2013 law stipulated that North Korea could use nuclear weapons to repel invasion or attack from a hostile nuclear state and make retaliatory strikes.

The new law goes beyond that to allow for preemptive nuclear strikes if an imminent attack by weapons of mass destruction or against the country's "strategic targets", including its leadership, is detected.

"In a nutshell, there are some really vague and ambiguous circumstances in which North Korea is now saying it might use its nuclear weapons," Chad O'Carroll, founder of the North Korea-tracking website NK News, said on Twitter.

"I imagine the purpose is to give U.S. and South Korean military planners pause for thought over a much wider range of actions than before," he added.

Like the earlier law, the new version vows not to threaten non-nuclear states with nuclear weapons unless they join with a nuclear-armed country to attack the North.

The new law adds, however, that it can launch a preemptive nuclear strike if it detects an imminent attack of any kind aimed at North Korea's leadership and the command organization of its nuclear forces.

That is an apparent reference to South Korea's "Kill Chain" strategy, which calls for preemptively striking North Korea's nuclear infrastructure and command system if an imminent attack is suspected.

Kim cited Kill Chain, which is part of a three-pronged military strategy being boosted under new South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, as a sign that the situation is deteriorating and that Pyongyang must prepare for long-term tensions.

Under the law, Kim has "all decisive powers" over nuclear weapons, but if the command and control system is threatened, then nuclear weapons may be launched "automatically".

If Kim delegates launch authority to lower commanders during a crisis, that could increase the chances of a catastrophic miscalculation, analysts said.

'RESPONSIBLE NUCLEAR STATE'

The law bans any sharing of nuclear arms or technology with other countries, and is aimed at reducing the danger of a nuclear war by preventing miscalculations among nuclear weapons states and misuse of nuclear weapons, KCNA reported.

Analysts say Kim's goal is to win international acceptance of North Korea's status as a "responsible nuclear state."

U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has offered to talk to Kim any time, at any place, and Yoon has said his country would provide massive amounts of economic aid if Pyongyang began to give up its arsenal.

South Korea on Thursday offered to hold talks with North Korea on reunions of families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War, in its first direct overture under Yoon, despite strained cross-border ties.

North Korea has rebuffed those overtures, however, saying that the United States and its allies maintain "hostile policies" such as sanctions and military drills that undermine their messages of peace.

"As long as nuclear weapons remain on earth and imperialism remains and manoeuvres of the United States and its followers against our republic are not terminated, our work to strengthen nuclear force will not cease," Kim said.

(Reporting by Josh Smith; Editing by Himani Sarkar, Lincoln Feast and Gerry Doyle)

Okinawa voters expected to turn backs on central govt despite China threat

By Elaine Lies - Yesterday

Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki speaks to media after a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Tokyo© Reuters/POOL

TOKYO (Reuters) - Voters in Okinawa are expected to re-elect their opposition-backed governor on Sunday, turning their backs on Japan's central government and national ruling party despite being on the front lines should conflict with China erupt over Taiwan.

Rising tensions in the nearby waters have become a concern for the tropical prefecture, which is far closer to Taiwan than to Tokyo. China this summer launched five missiles into the sea close to Okinawa - and within Japan's exclusive economic zone - during military exercises after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own.



FILE PHOTO: Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki attends a news conference at at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan in Tokyo© Reuters/ISSEI KATO

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has pushed for increased defence spending to counter China, but media polls have shown voters likely to re-elect Denny Tamaki, who is supported by a broad coalition of opposition parties.

The LDP backs Atsushi Sakima, a former mayor. Tamaki defeated him in 2018 by 396,632 votes to 316,458, partly by calling for the large Futenma U.S. air base to be moved outside the prefecture.


Sakima favours the central government's plan to move the base from a crowded urban area to Okinawa's more remote Henoko district, while a third candidate, former national lawmaker Mikio Shimoji, wants it re-purposed as a shared military and commercial airport.


The U.S. military is a hot-button issue in Okinawa, which saw some of the bloodiest fighting in World War Two and has long resented the burden of hosting the majority of U.S. troops in Japan on facilities that take up 5% of Okinawa's land. Polls show 55% of Okinawa voters oppose moving the Futenma base to Henoko.

But with Okinawa's economy hit hard by slumping tourism due to the coronavirus pandemic, Tamaki's campaign is shifting attention to economic policies, which Sakima has long emphasised, and which could give him a slight boost.

"The situation is a bit fluid as a result of this," said Airo Hino, a political science professor at Tokyo's Waseda University.

Candidates backed by the LDP have also won four recent mayoral elections in Okinawa, signalling a potential shift.

"I think the Taiwan situation may be having a bit of an impact even in Okinawa," Hino said.

(This 11 September story corrects 10 September story's spelling of "land" in sixth paragraph)

(Reporting by Elaine Lies; Editing by Chang-Ran Kim and William Mallard)