By Josh Smith - Friday
North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un sits in his vehicle after arriving at a railway station in Dong Dang, Vietnam
© Reuters/Athit Perawongmetha
SEOUL (Reuters) - A new North Korean law calls for "automatic" nuclear launches if the country's leadership or command and control systems are threatened, underscoring leader Kim Jong Un's fears of a so-called "decapitation" strike, experts said.
In an updated nuclear policy law passed on Thursday, North Korea enshrined the right to use preemptive nuclear strikes to protect itself, with Kim saying the legislation makes the country's nuclear status "irreversible" and bars denuclearisation talks.
The law outlines when North Korea could use its nuclear weapons, including if there is an attack on the government's leadership or the nuclear command and control system.
"In case the command and control system over the state nuclear forces is placed in danger owing to an attack by hostile forces, a nuclear strike shall be launched automatically and immediately to destroy the hostile forces," the law states, according to state news agency KCNA.
Kim has "monolithic command" over the nuclear forces, but the law's wording may indicate that if he is killed, a senior official would be designated to authorize nuclear strikes, said Ankit Panda of the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"The basic idea here is to communicate to the United States and South Korea that decapitating the North Korean leadership would not spare them nuclear retaliation," he said, noting that there are precedents in other nuclear states, including the United States during the Cold War.
Both the United States and Russia have employed technical systems, including the Soviet Union's infamous "Dead Hand," designed to ensure nuclear retaliation even if leaders are killed.
For now, that sort of "fail deadly" system in North Korea seems unlikely, Panda said.
"I would expect, for the moment, the fail deadly system would rely on organizational steps: for instance, the First Secretary of the Workers’ Party could confirm that Kim Jong Un had been killed in the course of a conflict, thereby authorizing the release of nuclear weapons," he said.
Although South Korea and the United States say they do not seek to change North Korea's government by force, both countries have war plans that imply strikes against Pyongyang's leadership.
Amid the "fire and fury" tensions of 2017 the Trump administration insisted it had no intention of launching a "bloody nose strike" against Kim, but had privately reviewed and updated war plans for a decapitation strike, according to a book by journalist Bob Woodward.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, who took office in May, has publicly given new emphasis to the so-called "Kill Chain" system to counter a North Korean nuclear attack, and is pouring resources into boosting the weapons that would be used under such plans, including F-35A stealth fighters and missiles launched from submarines.
First developed a decade ago as North Korea ramped up its nuclear development, Kill Chain calls for preemptive strikes against the North's missiles and possibly its senior leadership if an attack appears imminent.
In his speech discussing the new law on Thursday, Kim cited Kill Chain and its related strategies by name, saying they justify North Korea's nuclear development.
"This would seemingly warn away any notions of 'bloody nose' strikes, assuming any administration contemplates that again," Rob York, director for regional affairs at the Hawaii-based Pacific Forum, said of the new law.
(Reporting by Josh Smith. Editing by Gerry Doyle)
SEOUL (Reuters) - A new North Korean law calls for "automatic" nuclear launches if the country's leadership or command and control systems are threatened, underscoring leader Kim Jong Un's fears of a so-called "decapitation" strike, experts said.
In an updated nuclear policy law passed on Thursday, North Korea enshrined the right to use preemptive nuclear strikes to protect itself, with Kim saying the legislation makes the country's nuclear status "irreversible" and bars denuclearisation talks.
The law outlines when North Korea could use its nuclear weapons, including if there is an attack on the government's leadership or the nuclear command and control system.
"In case the command and control system over the state nuclear forces is placed in danger owing to an attack by hostile forces, a nuclear strike shall be launched automatically and immediately to destroy the hostile forces," the law states, according to state news agency KCNA.
Kim has "monolithic command" over the nuclear forces, but the law's wording may indicate that if he is killed, a senior official would be designated to authorize nuclear strikes, said Ankit Panda of the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"The basic idea here is to communicate to the United States and South Korea that decapitating the North Korean leadership would not spare them nuclear retaliation," he said, noting that there are precedents in other nuclear states, including the United States during the Cold War.
Both the United States and Russia have employed technical systems, including the Soviet Union's infamous "Dead Hand," designed to ensure nuclear retaliation even if leaders are killed.
For now, that sort of "fail deadly" system in North Korea seems unlikely, Panda said.
"I would expect, for the moment, the fail deadly system would rely on organizational steps: for instance, the First Secretary of the Workers’ Party could confirm that Kim Jong Un had been killed in the course of a conflict, thereby authorizing the release of nuclear weapons," he said.
Although South Korea and the United States say they do not seek to change North Korea's government by force, both countries have war plans that imply strikes against Pyongyang's leadership.
Amid the "fire and fury" tensions of 2017 the Trump administration insisted it had no intention of launching a "bloody nose strike" against Kim, but had privately reviewed and updated war plans for a decapitation strike, according to a book by journalist Bob Woodward.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, who took office in May, has publicly given new emphasis to the so-called "Kill Chain" system to counter a North Korean nuclear attack, and is pouring resources into boosting the weapons that would be used under such plans, including F-35A stealth fighters and missiles launched from submarines.
First developed a decade ago as North Korea ramped up its nuclear development, Kill Chain calls for preemptive strikes against the North's missiles and possibly its senior leadership if an attack appears imminent.
In his speech discussing the new law on Thursday, Kim cited Kill Chain and its related strategies by name, saying they justify North Korea's nuclear development.
"This would seemingly warn away any notions of 'bloody nose' strikes, assuming any administration contemplates that again," Rob York, director for regional affairs at the Hawaii-based Pacific Forum, said of the new law.
(Reporting by Josh Smith. Editing by Gerry Doyle)
New N.Korea law outlines nuclear weapons use, including pre-emptive strikes
(DMZ) separating the two Koreas© Reuters/KIM HONG-JI
SEOUL (Reuters) -North Korea has officially enshrined the right to use preemptive nuclear strikes to protect itself in a new law that leader Kim Jong Un said makes its nuclear status "irreversible" and bars denuclearisation talks, state media reported on Friday.
The move comes as observers say North Korea appears to be preparing to resume nuclear testing for the first time since 2017, after historic summits with then-U.S. President Donald Trump and other world leaders in 2018 failed to persuade Kim to abandon his weapons development.
The North's rubber-stamp parliament, the Supreme People's Assembly, passed the legislation on Thursday as a replacement to a 2013 law that first outlined the country's nuclear status, according to state news agency KCNA.
"The utmost significance of legislating nuclear weapons policy is to draw an irretrievable line so that there can be no bargaining over our nuclear weapons," Kim said in a speech to the assembly, adding that he would never surrender the weapons even if the country faced 100 years of sanctions.
Among the scenarios that could trigger a nuclear attack would be the threat of an imminent nuclear strike; if the country's leadership, people or existence were under threat; or to gain the upper hand during a war, among other reasons.
A deputy at the assembly said the law would serve as a powerful legal guarantee for consolidating North Korea's position as a nuclear weapons state and ensuring the "transparent, consistent and standard character" of its nuclear policy, KCNA reported.
"Actually spelling out the conditions for use are especially rare, and it may simply be a product of North Korea's position, how much it values nuclear weapons, and how essential it sees them for its survival," said Rob York, director for regional affairs at the Hawaii-based Pacific Forum.
PREEMPTIVE STRIKES
The original 2013 law stipulated that North Korea could use nuclear weapons to repel invasion or attack from a hostile nuclear state and make retaliatory strikes.
The new law goes beyond that to allow for preemptive nuclear strikes if an imminent attack by weapons of mass destruction or against the country's "strategic targets", including its leadership, is detected.
"In a nutshell, there are some really vague and ambiguous circumstances in which North Korea is now saying it might use its nuclear weapons," Chad O'Carroll, founder of the North Korea-tracking website NK News, said on Twitter.
"I imagine the purpose is to give U.S. and South Korean military planners pause for thought over a much wider range of actions than before," he added.
Like the earlier law, the new version vows not to threaten non-nuclear states with nuclear weapons unless they join with a nuclear-armed country to attack the North.
The new law adds, however, that it can launch a preemptive nuclear strike if it detects an imminent attack of any kind aimed at North Korea's leadership and the command organization of its nuclear forces.
That is an apparent reference to South Korea's "Kill Chain" strategy, which calls for preemptively striking North Korea's nuclear infrastructure and command system if an imminent attack is suspected.
Kim cited Kill Chain, which is part of a three-pronged military strategy being boosted under new South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, as a sign that the situation is deteriorating and that Pyongyang must prepare for long-term tensions.
Under the law, Kim has "all decisive powers" over nuclear weapons, but if the command and control system is threatened, then nuclear weapons may be launched "automatically".
If Kim delegates launch authority to lower commanders during a crisis, that could increase the chances of a catastrophic miscalculation, analysts said.
'RESPONSIBLE NUCLEAR STATE'
The law bans any sharing of nuclear arms or technology with other countries, and is aimed at reducing the danger of a nuclear war by preventing miscalculations among nuclear weapons states and misuse of nuclear weapons, KCNA reported.
Analysts say Kim's goal is to win international acceptance of North Korea's status as a "responsible nuclear state."
U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has offered to talk to Kim any time, at any place, and Yoon has said his country would provide massive amounts of economic aid if Pyongyang began to give up its arsenal.
South Korea on Thursday offered to hold talks with North Korea on reunions of families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War, in its first direct overture under Yoon, despite strained cross-border ties.
North Korea has rebuffed those overtures, however, saying that the United States and its allies maintain "hostile policies" such as sanctions and military drills that undermine their messages of peace.
"As long as nuclear weapons remain on earth and imperialism remains and manoeuvres of the United States and its followers against our republic are not terminated, our work to strengthen nuclear force will not cease," Kim said.
(Reporting by Josh Smith; Editing by Himani Sarkar, Lincoln Feast and Gerry Doyle)
SEOUL (Reuters) -North Korea has officially enshrined the right to use preemptive nuclear strikes to protect itself in a new law that leader Kim Jong Un said makes its nuclear status "irreversible" and bars denuclearisation talks, state media reported on Friday.
The move comes as observers say North Korea appears to be preparing to resume nuclear testing for the first time since 2017, after historic summits with then-U.S. President Donald Trump and other world leaders in 2018 failed to persuade Kim to abandon his weapons development.
The North's rubber-stamp parliament, the Supreme People's Assembly, passed the legislation on Thursday as a replacement to a 2013 law that first outlined the country's nuclear status, according to state news agency KCNA.
"The utmost significance of legislating nuclear weapons policy is to draw an irretrievable line so that there can be no bargaining over our nuclear weapons," Kim said in a speech to the assembly, adding that he would never surrender the weapons even if the country faced 100 years of sanctions.
Among the scenarios that could trigger a nuclear attack would be the threat of an imminent nuclear strike; if the country's leadership, people or existence were under threat; or to gain the upper hand during a war, among other reasons.
A deputy at the assembly said the law would serve as a powerful legal guarantee for consolidating North Korea's position as a nuclear weapons state and ensuring the "transparent, consistent and standard character" of its nuclear policy, KCNA reported.
"Actually spelling out the conditions for use are especially rare, and it may simply be a product of North Korea's position, how much it values nuclear weapons, and how essential it sees them for its survival," said Rob York, director for regional affairs at the Hawaii-based Pacific Forum.
PREEMPTIVE STRIKES
The original 2013 law stipulated that North Korea could use nuclear weapons to repel invasion or attack from a hostile nuclear state and make retaliatory strikes.
The new law goes beyond that to allow for preemptive nuclear strikes if an imminent attack by weapons of mass destruction or against the country's "strategic targets", including its leadership, is detected.
"In a nutshell, there are some really vague and ambiguous circumstances in which North Korea is now saying it might use its nuclear weapons," Chad O'Carroll, founder of the North Korea-tracking website NK News, said on Twitter.
"I imagine the purpose is to give U.S. and South Korean military planners pause for thought over a much wider range of actions than before," he added.
Like the earlier law, the new version vows not to threaten non-nuclear states with nuclear weapons unless they join with a nuclear-armed country to attack the North.
The new law adds, however, that it can launch a preemptive nuclear strike if it detects an imminent attack of any kind aimed at North Korea's leadership and the command organization of its nuclear forces.
That is an apparent reference to South Korea's "Kill Chain" strategy, which calls for preemptively striking North Korea's nuclear infrastructure and command system if an imminent attack is suspected.
Kim cited Kill Chain, which is part of a three-pronged military strategy being boosted under new South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, as a sign that the situation is deteriorating and that Pyongyang must prepare for long-term tensions.
Under the law, Kim has "all decisive powers" over nuclear weapons, but if the command and control system is threatened, then nuclear weapons may be launched "automatically".
If Kim delegates launch authority to lower commanders during a crisis, that could increase the chances of a catastrophic miscalculation, analysts said.
'RESPONSIBLE NUCLEAR STATE'
The law bans any sharing of nuclear arms or technology with other countries, and is aimed at reducing the danger of a nuclear war by preventing miscalculations among nuclear weapons states and misuse of nuclear weapons, KCNA reported.
Analysts say Kim's goal is to win international acceptance of North Korea's status as a "responsible nuclear state."
U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has offered to talk to Kim any time, at any place, and Yoon has said his country would provide massive amounts of economic aid if Pyongyang began to give up its arsenal.
South Korea on Thursday offered to hold talks with North Korea on reunions of families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War, in its first direct overture under Yoon, despite strained cross-border ties.
North Korea has rebuffed those overtures, however, saying that the United States and its allies maintain "hostile policies" such as sanctions and military drills that undermine their messages of peace.
"As long as nuclear weapons remain on earth and imperialism remains and manoeuvres of the United States and its followers against our republic are not terminated, our work to strengthen nuclear force will not cease," Kim said.
(Reporting by Josh Smith; Editing by Himani Sarkar, Lincoln Feast and Gerry Doyle)
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