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Varcoe: 'Windfall tax' in Europe hits home for Calgary oil and gas producer

Opinion by Chris Varcoe, Calgary Herald - 

If those backing a windfall tax on the oilpatch want a peek at what it creates — aside from more revenues for governments — Calgary-based Vermilion Energy offers a glimpse: uncertainty.


Oil barrels are pictured at the site of Canadian group Vermilion Energy in Parentis-en-Born, France, on Oct. 13, 2017.© Provided by Calgary Herald

With a global energy crisis unfolding today, the reverberations have reached Vermilion, a mid-sized petroleum producer that is active in Canada, the United States, Australia and several European countries.

On Thursday, Vermilion reported third-quarter net earnings of $271 million in a period of high energy prices, up from a loss of $147 million a year earlier.

The company also announced it could pay an estimated $250 million to $350 million for 2022 because of the new temporary “windfall tax” being imposed by European Union (EU) countries on profits by oil and gas producers.

In a news release, Vermilion said it doesn’t “believe a windfall tax is an appropriate solution as it will not incentivize new domestic supply, nor reduce consumption, and it may ultimately result in higher natural gas prices in Europe.”

Uncertainty surrounding the new tax led the Canadian company to pause its share buyback program in the fourth quarter so it can fully assess the impact of the levy on its debt targets.

“It’s been an interesting time with the policy in Europe. It’s during this energy crisis, it’s discussions from price caps to windfall taxes on oil and gas companies,” Vermilion president Dion Hatcher said on a conference call.

“Our ask, as we think about the policies in Europe, is really we want stable and predictable policies.”

With energy prices soaring following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, the EU approved a temporary windfall tax in September aimed at fossil fuel companies in the region.

Some details have yet to be ironed out by individual countries and it’s unclear whether the tax will apply retroactively to 2022, prospectively to 2023, or for both years, according to Vermilion.

If it hits both years, the potential cumulative costs are estimated at $650 million to $750 million, based on the current commodity price outlook.

Vermilion’s shares fell almost eight per cent on Thursday to close at $27.25 on the Toronto Stock Exchange, while the overall S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index climbed by 2.5 per cent.

“It’s all about the EU windfall tax,” said analyst Phil Skolnick of Eight Capital. “It’s just a knee-jerk reaction to them saying they’re pausing the (buybacks) and that caught some people off guard.”

Ottawa could reap $4.4 billion from extending windfall tax to other sectors: PBO

Advocates of windfall tax on oil and gas sector can now point to EU for inspiration

Ottawa reveals plan for new tax on stock buybacks

'A dart in the forehead of the energy industry': Oilpatch reacts to tax on stock buybacks

Vermilion has a diverse base of international operations, including in France — where it’s the No. 1 domestic oil producer — along with Ireland, Germany and the Netherlands.

About a third of its production of 84,000 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day came from outside North America, but it contributed an oversized amount of free cash flow as the company received premium prices for its natural gas and oil in Europe.

Continental gas prices hit all-time highs above $120 per million British thermal units (mmBTU) at Europe’s benchmark futures market in late August. Vermilion estimates the realized price for all of its gas production will average $22 per mmBTU this year, compared with $5 for gas in Alberta.

Calls for a windfall tax have gathered steam in recent months as gasoline prices and energy bills have jumped for consumers, while producers around the world have reported record profits.

During the run-up to the American mid-term elections, President Joe Biden warned last week of a similar windfall tax on the U.S. sector, while saying it’s time oil companies “stop the war profiteering.”

In Canada, the federal government opted not to bring in a windfall tax, but announced plans to introduce a new levy on public companies repurchasing their own shares, beginning in 2024.

“This is a time of unprecedented profits in the oil and gas sector. Right now, that money is almost entirely being handed back to shareholders,” said Keith Stewart of Greenpeace Canada, which is calling for a windfall tax.

The levy on corporate share buybacks , which have grown in popularity across the sector in the past year, amounts to a different form of a windfall tax on the sector, said Ben Brunnen, founder of Verum Consulting.

Governments in Canada are already collecting more royalties and taxes tied to higher oil and gas prices, he noted.


FILE PHOTO: Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland delivers the fall economic statement in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada on November 3, 2022.

If policymakers want to see more benefits, they should encourage industry growth, rather than create new taxes, said Brunnen, former vice-president of fiscal and economic policy with the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.

“Investors have been patient with the oil and gas industry over the last decade or so, struggling to get some good returns. And when those returns finally come, they get penalized,” he said.

“It’s short-sighted economic policy.”

At Vermilion, the company expects to unveil its 2023 capital budget in January that’s similar to this year’s $550-million program. Hatcher said there’s a potential for more money being allocated to increase European gas output.

“We have the ability and desire to drill more wells in Europe and if ongoing discussions with regulators are productive, we will look to allocate additional capital to the region in 2023,” he said.

Hatcher would also like to see government policies recognize the industry’s contribution to energy security, displacing the need to import supplies.

“Going back to ‘97, we have put meaningful capital at risk to provide secure energy in Europe … without the guarantees of return,” he said.

“Our business is cyclical and there are periods of low prices, and there are periods of high prices. And we need those periods of high prices to offset the lows.”

Chris Varcoe is a Calgary Herald columnist.

Letter: It's time to turn away from fossil fuels to power new builds

Reader Letters - 
Leader Post

We’re way behind on electrification in Regina when it has advantages that would benefit us while helping to fight the climate crisis. Building right with all electric the first time will save money on energy costs for buildings with the costs of operating high-efficiency electric appliances being lower with savings over time. A study by Inclusive Economics and UCLA’s Luskin Center for Innovation found that there could be significant job growth from electrifying new and existing buildings. Most of the new jobs would be in construction, with opportunities for job growth in other sectors as well, including manufacturing.


Solar panels on a row of townhouses.© Provided by Leader Post

Building electrification (also known as beneficial electrification or building decarbonization) involves the shift to electricity rather than burning fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal for heating and cooking. We need to be going to all-electric buildings powered by solar, wind and other sources of zero-carbon electricity. Electrification is an effective decarbonization strategy that can be rolled out on a municipal basis because the electricity used can be generated with clean resources.

So why are we building backwards with buildings that are not highly energy efficient or electrified? It’s developers nickel and diming with no accountability to the City of Regina or the province to build with a focus on decarbonization. We need to stop looking for the cheapest shortcuts in buildings in our province and city and look for the solutions that have the best long term benefit environmentally and economically. If we’re serious about sustainability then it’s time to get serious about electrification.

Larry Neufeld, Regina

CONSERVATIVE ALBERTA ECONOMIST 
Jack Mintz: The real climate policy question — why is Trudeau's carbon tax so low?

ASKS A GOOD QUESTION OF THE TORIES

THEY HAVE NO CARBON TAX PLAN

Opinion by Jack M. Mintz -Financial Post

Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson speaking to the 

Calgary Chamber of Commerce.

Public finance economists — myself included — have long argued that the best way to reduce GHG emissions is to impose a “price” via an emission trading system (ETS) or carbon tax . The idea is not new. British economist Arthur Pigou first proposed environmental taxes a century ago.

A Pigou argument for carbon pricing is based on both effectiveness and least economic cost. Businesses and households react to the price by adopting technologies or conservation practices to reduce emissions without any need for further political meddling in markets. As a bonus, recycling the revenues to reduce uncompetitive taxes such as the income tax results in a “double dividend” by improving both the environment and the economy .

The federal minister of natural resources, John Wilkinson, seems to agree — except for the double dividend bit: Ottawa gives its carbon tax revenues back to households in lump-sum transfers. But the minister is so sold on carbon taxes he’s willing to guarantee carbon prices in private-sector contracts and commit to paying penalties if the tax is cancelled — presumably in order to keep a future Poilievre government from doing just that. Legal issues aside, is it really smart to force a policy decision like this on future voters?

In the runup to the COP27 talkfest in Egypt, the OECD published a report on “ Pricing greenhouse gas emissions: Turning climate targets into climate action.” Because worldwide GHG emissions keep increasing and are expected to do so for the rest of decade perhaps it should have been called “Turning climate targets into climate in action.”

The OECD argues that carbon taxation and ETS systems are spreading, with 71 jurisdictions now pricing at least some GHG emissions. But dig into the numbers and you find the average 2021 global carbon tax was only 71 U.S. cents per tonne of CO2 — just 95 Canadian cents! Add in ETS pricing and the average carbon price shoots up to €4.29, or just C$5.80 — which amounts to a hill of beans.

To persuade us carbon pricing is important, the OECD also includes excise taxes on gasoline and diesel. They bring the carbon price up to €17.52 (C$23.67). But in most places the purpose of such taxes has been to fund subsidized road transportation and operate as a surrogate tax on congestion costs, not to price GHG emissions. Besides, it’s a very poor carbon levy because it only applies narrowly to just a few sources.

With the recent spike in energy prices, many countries have been handing out subsidies to help consumers cope. Net of subsidies, the 2021 carbon price (not including excise taxes on fuel) is €3.43 (C$4.06). Despite the Trudeau government’s rhetoric, Canada is in the middle of the pack with the 31st highest carbon price: €21.69 (C$29.36).

Maybe we should start asking the obvious question: why are carbon prices so low? They certainly haven’t caught on — not compared with the value-added tax (VAT), for instance, which started in 1954 in France and grew in 30 years to become an important revenue source in over 150 countries. VAT revenues now account for almost a fifth of total tax revenues in OECD countries while carbon revenues are bupkis – roughly three per cent of the total.

So why is carbon pricing failing as a policy? At least five reasons.

First, it is very visible, leads to higher prices for necessities (transportation and heating), and hurts low-income and rural voters. Hidden taxes and even costly regulations on businesses are politically easier: voters don’t see them raising prices, even though they do.

Second, voters like policies that give them money rather than take it away. Outside California the U.S. has very little carbon pricing. But Washington just passed legislation providing almost a half-trillion dollars in climate subsidies. Subsidies financed by higher deficits or corporate taxes are more appealing than taxes — until they break the bank.

Third, many countries have little faith in the effectiveness of carbon pricing, actually preferring clean energy regulations and mandates. Even Jonathan Wilkinson , when he was environment minister, was convinced that even with the carbon price rising to $170 per tonne mandates and clean fuel regulations were needed if Canada was to reach its (unrealistic) GHG emission targets by 2030.

BULLSHIT
Fourth, without international coordination carbon policies have significant impacts on competitiveness that could lead to deindustrialization and job losses in energy-intensive industries. For Canada, this is especially important. Our carbon policies are on a different track than those of our largest trading partner, the U.S. Even if we match the Americans’ huge new subsidies, our high carbon price will make Canadian businesses less competitive than U.S. companies. Border tariffs with the U.S. might offset our disadvantage but wouldn’t stop Canadian businesses shifting production south to the largest market in the world.

Fifth, energy security and poverty will force countries to trade off climate change with other public objectives until practical technologies develop commercially. In today’s energy crisis, European countries are scrambling for coal, natural gas and oil to support both consumers and industries.

Though it does bring in revenues, which is always appealing to governments, carbon pricing just doesn’t cut it for many countries, as the OECD has now shown.

CAPTALI$T CLIMATE CRI$I$ OPPORTUNITY

Faulkner: Climate change migration and the future of real estate

Dennis Faulkner - Yesterday - Edmonton Journal

Canada is already at or near the top of the list of the best countries to live in. Alas, there is possibly another reason to move to Canada — climate change.


Forest fires and floods are some of the climate change effects that will affect where people live.

Forward thinkers and generational planners may see a move to Canada as the best way to thrive in a climate-changed world.

Some residents of California have moved because of the increase in wildfires. Many no longer feel safe. They have migrated to other parts of the United States, where the wildfire risk is much lower.

Declining river levels in the United States, including the Colorado River, Mississippi River and Missouri River, are reaching dangerously low levels.

California has to keep implementing new restrictions for the acceptable use of the precious waters of the Colorado River. Many farmers have had to limit and change what crops they grow in California because of the shortages.

The Colorado River runs down to Mexico or used to. Now what runs into Mexico is more like a trickle.

The Missouri and Mississippi Rivers are now so low that there are backlogs of vessels waiting to get to tidewater. These vessels contain grains and other products for world export.

The delay in getting food resources affects revenue for exporters and farmers and may contribute to food shortages in parts of the world.

On the West Coast of Canada, some waterways have dried up, which is affecting salmon’s ability to spawn.

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In the last several years, there has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of storms, droughts and wildfires. All these changes to our weather patterns come with great additional costs.

Climate change aside, the Canadian government has significantly increased our immigration quotas. Canada typically processes about 260,000 immigration applications each year. That level is increasing.

In 2019, Canada welcomed 341,000 new permanent residents. In 2021, we welcomed 401,000 permanent residents, which broke the old record set in 1913.

This year is expected to increase to as many as 420,000 applications processed, with even more increases expected in 2023 and beyond.

We will likely see more business and corporate migration to Canada, as well.

The increase in immigration is necessary to support our economy and replace our aging and retiring baby boomers.

This increased immigration will put upward pressure on housing demand. Rental demand will likely increase across the nation. Demand for home ownership will follow.

We already have a housing shortage in Canada. That shortage may be as high or higher than 2 million homes.

The recent rapid increase in mortgage rates has resulted in downward pressure on housing demand across Canada. Many areas of British Columbia and Ontario have seen significant drops in valuations since the beginning of the year.

Some are anticipating as much as a 30 per cent valuation drop in housing in regions of B.C. and Ontario. The prairie provinces did not appreciate significantly over the last 10 years and may not see much of a correction at all.

What affects values the most is the relationship between demand and supply.

The increased levels of immigration in Canada may reduce the amount of downward correction in values. Climate change migration could contribute to stronger housing demand in Canada for decades to come.

The prairie provinces could be at the top of the list of many new Canadians seeking housing affordability and employment opportunities. In the coming two to five years, we may see the housing values in prairie provinces significantly outperform many regions, including Ontario and B.C.

Canada could see a significant increase in immigration applications related to climate change issues in the years and decades to come.

Dennis Faulkner works as a realtor at Re/Max River City and holds a bachelor of arts degree with a major in macroeconomics. He can be contacted at hello@simplyrealestate.ca

Deep inside Greenland's melting ice cap, the situation is dire

Mark Robinson - 
The rocks at the edge of the ice looked more like someone had backed up a gravel truck and dumped it rather than the remnants of what had once been encased deep in a glacier.

Picking my way through the piles and onto the Greenland ice cap itself during a StormHunters expedition back in 2013 was a crash course in not breaking an ankle. Gravel mixed with meltwater and crumbling ice poured past my feet and I wondered if what I was seeing was regular summer melt, or if this was one of the first signs of a serious problem.

Lucky for me, a powerful new documentary called Into The Ice answered my question — but the answer wasn’t the one I’d hoped for.

Into The Ice, a film by documentarian Lars Ostenfeld, took him high up onto the Greenland ice cap as he followed three sets of scientists delving deep into the frozen surface.

As Ostenfbeld explained, when I spoke with him over a video call in advance of the film’s screening at the Planet in Focus Festival, getting a better look of what’s happening inside the glacier is an important as seeing what the satellites are telling us.

“Half of the ice melt is happening inside the ice and we have no idea what’s going on in there. The satellites and the radar are only seeing the surface and that’s where our knowledge is coming from,” he told The Weather Network.



Deep inside Greenland's melting ice cap, the situation is dire© Provided by The Weather NetworkOn the ice caps of Greenland during the filming of Into the Ice. (Courtesy of Lars Ostenfeld)

So, to understand how the ice is changing and document how climatologists are finding new ways to document those changes, Ostenfeld travelled across the ice cap with Jason Box, dropped into a deep moulin (a meltwater hole in the ice) with Alun Hubbard, and examined ice cores with Dorthe Dahl-Jensen.

Each section of the documentary has its share of adventure, but it’s the section where Ostenfeld descends into the moulin that had my heart going (and I’ve been inside live volcanoes).

I asked Ostenfeld what emotions were going through his mind as he stood at the edge of the ice.

He laughed as he told me, “First of all, it was a good idea back in Denmark to climb down in the moulin. It sounded like a great adventure, but when I was standing there at the edge, looking down, it was totally black. You could see the ice and it just went down into a black hole. Nobody knew how deep it was and nobody knew where it ends. That was scary.”

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Heading down into the moulin was dangerous beyond anything he’d ever done before.

“We took it in slow steps,” he said. “When I was down at 60 metres there was a small plateau and I could stop and film from there. I was scared: very, very scared. My knees were shaking, my heart was going, but my safety guy, and expedition leader, was right beside me and the way he spoke to me, and the way he handled things made me feel safe.”

Getting to the bottom was a goal for both Ostenfeld and the scientists. For the former, getting a shot from the bottom of the hole would be potentially a first in filming, and for the scientists, and it was a chance to determine how much melt was ongoing within the ice cap.

On his first attempt, Ostenfeld only made it part of the way down as Alan Hubbard, his companion glaciologist, decided the ice was too warm and dangerous to make it all the way to the bottom. On the second attempt, spoiler alert, the scene had my stomach in knots while watching the film.

Antarctica's Doomsday Glacier 'holding on today by its fingernails'

At the end of the day, the real point of the documentary wasn’t to have an adventure, but to make people feel the effects of climate change.

“It is happening and I want people to feel it and take it seriously. This film celebrates science and the scientists and I want people to listen to what they are saying. It's like a Cassandra complex: you know what’s happening in the future but you feel like no one’s listening. And I want people to listen to the scientists because we can do something. If everyone does something small, it adds up over time,” Ostenfeld explained.



Deep inside Greenland's melting ice cap, the situation is dire© Provided by The Weather NetworkHeading down a deep moulin (a meltwater hole in the ice) during the filming of Into the Ice. (Courtesy of Lars Ostenfeld)

Completing the film changed Ostenfeld’s perspective on climate change and the natural world.

“One, I didn’t realize how big nature is and the problem is enormous. There’s a lot of ice that is melting so it will affect the whole world,” he said. “And second, I had the same feeling as Jason (one of the scientists) in that, is anyone listening? I began the film just because I was curious about what was happening to the ice and didn’t know much about it. After I finished filming and editing, I’m more worried about it now.”

While I know that the Greenland ice cap isn’t going anywhere soon, I’m hoping that when I next return the piles of ice debris won’t be that much larger and the ice that much smaller.

But, I’m not confident it won’t be bad news.

Into the Ice is playing a wide variety of film festivals in Europe and North America and Ostenfeld hopes to bring it to a streaming service soon.

Thumbnail image: Into the Ice. (Courtesy of Lars Ostenfeld)

DEAD SOULS TOURISM 

Archaeologists discover vast tunnel beneath Egyptian temple

Greg Cannella - Yesterday - CBS News

Archaeologists have discovered a massive ancient rock tunnel beneath an Egyptian temple, the Egyptian Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities announced last week.

A group led by Dr. Kathleen Martinez, who heads the Egyptian-Dominican mission of the University of Santo Domingo, uncovered the tunnel. She has made several previous discoveries in her search for the tomb of Queen Cleopatra.

Archeologists described the tunnel a "geometric miracle," according to a news release from the ministry. It stretches over 4,300 feet and is carved in a rock 42 feet below the ground in the area of the Temple of Tapozeris Magna, which is located west of the city of Alexandria, the ministry said.


Archaeologists have found a tunnel beneath a temple west of Alexandria, Egypt. November 2022. / Credit: Egypt Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities

The name of the temple, Tapozeris Magna, is dedicated to Osiris — the God of death. AND RESSURECTION BEING A FERTILITY DIETY


The tunnel's architectural design appears to resemble that of Greece's Jubilinos Tunnel, but longer, the ministry said. Martinez said a part of the tunnel was found to be submerged under the waters of the Mediterranean Sea, according to the ministry.

A network of tunnels stretching from King Marriott Lake to the Mediterranean were also discovered, as well as 16 burial sites inside rock-carved tombs commonly used in the Greek and Roman centuries, the ministry disclosed.


Archaeologists have found a tunnel beneath a temple west of Alexandria, Egypt. November 2022. / Credit: Egypt Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities
During previous excavations at the site, researchers also found important artifacts inside the temple, including coins bearing the images and names of both Queen Cleopatra and Alexander the Great. They said a number of beheaded statues, and statues of the goddess Isis, were also found.


Alabaster head found during excavations beneath the Tapuziris Magna Temple near Alexandria, Egypt. / Credit: Egypt Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities 

China Then, India Now

Rich Karlgaard, Forbes Staff - Yesterday 

Investor reaction to China’s 20th Party Congress in October was swift and ugly. The Monday after the event concluded, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 6.4%, the worst one-day drop since the 2008 financial crisis. Goldman Sachs’ index of Chinese ADRs sank 15%. China’s yuan reached its lowest point versus the U.S. dollar in 14 years.


Gautam Adani, chairman of Adani Group Forbes Asia© Provided by Forbes

Markets can process any kind of news: good, bad and neutral. What markets hate is surprise. Certainly, the reach of President Xi Jinping’s power ambitions were no surprise. His becoming president for life was expected. Rather, the shock (to global investors anyway) was Xi’s warm embrace of 1949, the year Mao Zedong prevailed in the Chinese civil war (1946-49) and created the Marxist-Leninist People’s Republic of China. It is stunning that Xi, leader of the world’s second largest economy, sees greater glory in the frequent mass starvation years between 1949-76. It’s as if Deng Xiaoping’s post-Mao miracle of reforms, and booms in innovation and prosperity, were bad for China.

Related video: What Will Fuel India's Economic Boom & Decoding The 'New India' Picture: Chetan Ahya Exclusive   Duration 14:24   View on Watch


While China copes with its self-inflicted errors, let’s turn to India. Gautam Adani, who tops the list of India’s richest, sees a bright future for the country. The chairman of Ahmedabad-based Adani Group, which has interests in ports, airports, green energy, cement and more, spoke at September’s Forbes Global CEO Conference in Singapore.

Below are highlights of Adani’s speech. (His comments are edited for brevity.)

Globalization is at an inflexion point. It will look very different from what we had come to accept in a largely unipolar world.
We are now witnessing a new set of geopolitical couplings as we transition into a multipolar world. What I see ahead are the new principles of global engagement based on greater self-reliance, lowered supply chain risks and stronger nationalism. Some have called this “the rising tide of deglobalization.”
Global turbulence has accelerated opportunities for India. It has made India one of the few relatively bright spots from a political, geostrategic and market perspective.
What many see as India’s imperfections reflects a thriving and a noisy democracy. Only the free can afford to make noise—to have their imperfections visible. To over-manage this would be to destroy India’s unique ability to express its diversity.
India has just become the world’s fifth largest economy. We are on the path to be the world’s third largest economy by 2030. India’s real growth is just starting.
Between now and 2050, India will become a country with 100% literacy levels. India will also be poverty-free, well before 2050. We will be a country with a median age of just 38 years even in 2050, with the largest consuming middle class the world will ever see.
India will attract the highest levels of foreign direct investment given the sheer scale of consumption of 1.6 billion people. (Last year, India recorded its highest annual FDI inflow of $85 billion. Inflow this year is expected to cross $100 billion—thereby setting another record.) We will be the country that will go from a $3 trillion economy to a $30 trillion economy, a country with a stock market capitalization of $45 trillion, and a country that will be supremely confident of its position in the world.
It took India almost 58 years post-independence to reach the $1 trillion GDP mark. It then took 12 years to achieve $2 trillion—and thereafter, only five years to achieve $3 trillion. This rate will further accelerate as the digital revolution kicks in and transforms every type of activity at a national scale.
In 2021, India added a unicorn every nine days, and it executed the largest number of real-time financial transactions globally—a staggering 48 billion. This was three times greater than China and six times greater than the U.S., Canada, France and Germany combined.

Hedge China. Embrace India.

Carbon dioxide emissions rising globally, but drop in China


SHARM EL-SHEIKH, Egypt (AP) — The world’s burning of coal, oil and natural gas this year is putting 1% more heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the air than last year, bad news for the fight against climate change but with an odd twist, according to scientists who track emissions.


Carbon dioxide emissions rising globally, but drop in China© Provided by The Canadian Press

China’s carbon pollution was down 0.9% this year compared to 2021, while emissions in the United States were 1.5% higher, said a study by scientists at Global Carbon Project released early Friday at international climate talks in Egypt. Both are opposite long-term trends. American emissions had been steadily dropping while Chinese emissions had been rising — until this year.

In both cases, it is a reaction to the pandemic and perhaps a bit of the energy crisis created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, study lead author Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter told The Associated Press. He said those two factors make this year’s data chaotic and hard to draw trends from. China’s lockdown in 2022 to try to control renewed COVID-19 is a major factor in that country’s drop, he said.

Much of the jump was in transportation — cars and air travel — with people’s limits on travel during the pandemic wearing off, Friedlingstein said.

While global carbon pollution is still increasing, it isn’t increasing at as fast a rate as 10 or 15 years ago. But overall scientists said this is bad news because it is pushing Earth closer to hitting and then passing the globally adopted threshold of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times.

“It means we better get ready to blow past the target and enter a world that humans have never experienced,’’ said Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer, who wasn’t part of the research team.

Friedlingstein’s team — along with other scientific reports — figure Earth can only put 380 billion metric tons (419 U.S. tons) of carbon dioxide into the air before Earth reaches the 1.5-degree mark. That’s about 9 to 10 years worth of emissions, meaning the globe will likely hit that point around 2031 or 2032.

“The time for 1.5 is running out,” Friedlingstein said.

“This is bad news,” said Brown University climate scientist Kim Cobb, who wasn’t part of the research team. “It’s hard to see any silver lining in rising emissions, when we must cut emissions in half by 2030 to keep global warming to an absolute minimum.”

In 2022, the world is on track to put 36.6 billion metric tons (40.3 billion U.S. tons) of carbon dioxide in the air from energy and cement use, the study calculated. That’s the weight of the Great Pyramid of Giza in carbon dioxide spewed every 75 minutes.

In addition to the United States seeing emissions go up, India had a 6% increase in 2022, while Europe had a 0.8% drop. The rest of the world averaged a 1.7% carbon pollution jump.

Pollution from coal jumped 1% from last year, for oil it went up 2% and for natural gas it went down 0.2%, the report said. About 40% of the carbon dioxide comes from burning coal, 33% from oil and 22% from natural gas, Friedlingstein said.

The team calculates emissions levels through the early fall using data provided by top carbon-emitting countries, including the U.S., China, India and Europe, and then makes projections for the rest of year.

While there are limitations to projections, Oppenheimer said: “This is the A-team on CO2 emissions and the carbon cycle. They know what they’re doing.”

Carbon emissions from fossil fuels plunged 5.3% in 2020 but rebounded 5.6% last year, spurred by China, and now have completely erased the pandemic drop and are back on a slowly rising trend, Friedlingstein said.

The team also looks at overall emissions, including the effects of land use. When land use is factored in, emissions are flat, not rising slightly, he said.

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Follow AP’s climate and environment coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment

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Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at @borenbears

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Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Seth Borenstein, The Associated Press

Guilbeault optimistic about targets even as Canada's emissions rebound post-pandemic

OTTAWA — Canada's carbon dioxide emissions crept back up in 2021 after falling sharply during the first year of COVID-19, and experts believe they will go up even further this year as the return to normal has accelerated.

The European Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research shows Canada's carbon dioxide emissions grew three per cent in 2021 after falling nearly 10 per cent in 2020.

That is on track with the worldwide trend reported at the United Nations climate talks in Egypt today by the Global Carbon Project. Its annual carbon budget says emissions in 2021 returned to 2019 levels, and they are expected to grow one per cent this year compared to 2019.

It said that by the end of this year, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will be 51 per cent higher than in pre-industrial times, and the budget for climate success is getting ever smaller.

Still, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault said he is feeling more optimistic than ever that Canada and the rest of the world may be able to live up to the Paris climate agreement.

That target is to keep global warming to as close to 1.5 C as possible. Above 1.5 C, the effects of climate change grow exponentially, and after 2 C, some of the change could be irreversible.

"We've made tremendous progress," Guilbeault said from Egypt, where he is attending the COP27 climate conference.

"If you would have asked me that question seven or eight years ago, the projections were that we were heading into a world where warming would be anywhere between four to six degrees Celsius. After Paris, the assessment was that we were heading into a world where temperature increases would be in the order of 2.8 degrees Celsius."

Guilbeault said in the last few weeks, other reports have shown that if all the countries that have promised to cut emissions live up to their promises, the increase may be limited to between 1.7 C and 2.4 C.

That shift downward from up to 6 C to as low as 1.7 C happened over "just about a decade," he said. "Now, that's still too much, but we've made tremendous progress. But there's a lot more that needs to be done."

When it comes to emissions-cutting, Canada is lagging behind its peers. The Global Carbon Project says the biggest hope for containing global warming is that 24 countries saw significant economic growth between 2012 and 2021 and still cut their emissions.

Canada is not among them. It is the only G7 country not on the list, with emissions holding steady between 2012 and 2021.

The European data show Canada's carbon emissions rose the slowest of any G7 country in 2021, but also shows Canada has done the worst job of any G7 country in lowering carbon dioxide emissions since 2005. That year is the starting point for the targets under the Paris climate accord.

In the 16 years since then, Canada's carbon dioxide emissions have fallen three per cent. Japan cut carbon dioxide 16 per cent since 2005, the United States cut it 20 per cent, Germany 21 per cent, France 26 per cent, Italy 36 per cent and the United Kingdom 40 per cent.

And the data show Canada is the only G7 country whose methane and nitrous oxide emissions rose between 2005 and 2021. Its methane emissions are up 2.7 per cent, while nitrous oxide increased 18 per cent.

Canada promised that by 2030, total emissions will be down 40 to 45 per cent.

The country's struggle to cut emissions more than it has came in large part because oil production has grown exponentially, with emissions growth in that sector and from transportation offsetting improvements in electricity and manufacturing.

Canadian environment groups on the ground in Egypt this week were hoping Guilbeault would unveil the cap on oil and gas emissions he promised at last year's climate talks in Glasgow.

But the government does not plan to release the details of the cap until sometime next year.

Aly Hyder Ali, program manager for oil and gas at Environmental Defence, said Canada is risking its reputation as a climate leader if it doesn't put more on the table to show its promises are more than just talk.

"We just need to see those commitments and promises turn into action with legitimate pathways and plans in place," he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 11, 2022.

Mia Rabson, The Canadian Press

A CROCK O SHIT

Nord Stream methane leak will NOT increase global warming, study says

Jonathan Chadwick For Mailonline - TODAY

Methane gas that leaked from a damaged Nord Stream pipeline in September will not increase global warming, a new study claims.

The leaks will have a 'negligible' effect on warming, despite releasing 220,000 tons of methane into the air, academics say.

This is relatively 'tiny' and too small to affect humans compared with emissions from sources such as the coal and gas industries, they add.

The cause of the pipeline damage is unknown, although there are suspicions from Western leaders that it was caused deliberately by Russia.

AND RUSSIA SAYS IT WAS THE USA/NATO

A few days after the leaks, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that the leaks were no accident and that she 'cannot rule out' sabotage.


According to Swedish and Danish authorities, there were four leaks from the two Nord Stream pipes (two in the Swedish economic zone, two in the Danish economic zone)© Provided by Daily Mail


This photo from the Danish Defence Command shows the gas leak at the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, as seen off the Danish Baltic island of Bornholm, south of Dueodde© Provided by Daily Mail


Security walks in front of the landfall facility of the Baltic Sea gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 in Lubmin, Germany, September 19, 2022© Provided by Daily Mail

What was the Nord Stream gas leak?

Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 are two pipelines linking Russia and Germany, owned by Russia.

A sudden loss of pressure in the pipelines was noted by operators of Nord Stream 2 overnight on Monday, September 26.

This was followed by a statement from the Danish Energy Authority outlining that a leak likely occurred in a pipe.

It was later confirmed on Tuesday by Sweden's Maritime Administration that two fissures had been detected on Nord Stream 1 in Swedish and Danish waters.

A third leak was later reported on the Nord Steam 2 pipeline, that has yet to begin commercial operations, in the same area northeast of the Danish island of Bornholm.

According to Swedish and Danish authorities, there were four leaks from the two Nord Stream pipes - two in the Swedish economic zone, and two in the Danish economic zone.

The new study was led by experts at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing.

'We derived a negligible increase in global surface air temperature,' they say in their new paper, published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

'Although the resultant warming from this methane leak incident was minor, future carbon release from additional Earth system feedbacks, such as thawing permafrost, and its impact on the methane mitigation pathways of the Paris Agreement, warrants investigation.'

On September 26, Nord Stream 1 and 2, two subsea pipelines for transferring natural gas from Russia to Germany, were both 'deliberately' ruptured, the experts say.

According to Swedish and Danish authorities, there were four leaks from the two Nord Stream pipes – two in the Swedish economic zone, and two in the Danish economic zone.

Massive quantities of gases, primarily methane, escaped into the ocean and were then released into the atmosphere.

Methane is a greenhouse gas, meaning it exacerbates global warming and climate change effects if it is released into the atmosphere.

It is also highly flammable, so when in contact with the air it raises the risk of explosion, and directly reduces air quality.

Methane is the second most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide (CO2), but has a much stronger greenhouse effect.

The visible leaks from the four spill points gradually lessened and stopped around October 2, the team say.



The pipelines show signs of sabotage and multiple 'detonations', Swedish authorities have said. Pictured, pipes at the landfall facilities of Nord Stream 2 in Lubmin, Germany© Provided by Daily Mail


This map shows the pair of Nord Stream natural gas pipelines that runs under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany. It comprises the Nord Stream 1 pipeline running from Vyborg in northwest Russia, near Finland, and the Nord Stream 2 pipeline running from Ust-Luga in northwest Russia near Estonia. Red stars in the image depict the locations of the leaks© Provided by Daily Mail

Methane from Nord Stream is detected from space

Methane leaking from a 'sabotaged' pipeline in Northern Europe has been captured by satellites.

Imagery from satellite company GHGSat shows the stream of methane over the Baltic Sea off of Sweden.

The methane leaked from a rupture point on Nord Stream 2 - one of two pipelines linking Russia to Germany thought to be deliberately damaged.

Related video: WION Climate Tracker | Study: CO2 emissions to hit an all-time high

Duration 2:17 View on Watch

For their study, the researchers estimated the climate impact of the leaked methane using the energy-conservation framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6), released in 2021.

These assessment reports provide scientific evidence for policymakers to use in decisions about how to tackle climate change.

The researchers collected estimates of the total amount of leaked methane available in the world's media after the incident, including those from AFP, Associated Press and an article in Nature.

They found that the earliest estimates of total emissions (one to two days after the leaks) reached up to 500,000 tons, while the latest (one month after the incident) put the estimate at no more than 250,000 tons.

Another study by a research team from Nanjing University gave 'a more accurate estimate' of no more than 220,000 tonnes by drawing upon multiple observations, including those from high-resolution satellites.

At 220,000, this would still make it the largest methane emission in a single event in human history – more than twice that of the Aliso Canyon accident in 2015, which released around 100,000 tons of methane from an underground storage facility in California's Santa Susana Mountains.

However, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics team argue that the Nord Stream emissions are 'still trivial' compared with other emissions sources.

For example, according to IPCC AR6, annual emissions of methane from the oil and gas sectors amounted to as much as 70 million tons between 2008 and 2017.

So if 250,000 tons is taken as reasonable estimate of the methane leaked by Nord Stream, this is only equivalent to 1.3 days of emissions from the oil and gas sectors, the researchers point out.



The Aliso Canyon accident in 2015 released around 100,000 tons of methane from an underground storage facility in California's Santa Susana Mountains. Pictured is the SS-25 well, where the 2015 gas leak occurred© Provided by Daily Mail


The Nord Stream pipeline leak is relatively 'tiny' and too small to affect humans compared with emissions from sources such as the coal and gas industries. Pictured, an oil rig for drilling an oil well© Provided by Daily Mail

Methane: a powerful greenhouse gas

Methane is a colourless, odourless flammable gas, and the main constituent of natural gas.

Methane is a greenhouse gas, and the second biggest cause of climate change after carbon dioxide.

Both gases trap heat in the atmosphere, similar to the glass roof of a greenhouse.

During the day, the sun shines through the atmosphere and Earth's surface warms up in the sunlight.

At night, the Earth's surface cools, releasing heat back into the air, but some of the heat is trapped by the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Too much of these gases can cause Earth's atmosphere to trap more and more heat, causing the planet to warm up.

Methane has more than 80 times the heat-trapping potency of carbon dioxide over the first 20 years after it reaches the atmosphere.

However this does decrease over time, as it breaks down over the course of about a decade.

It is emitted during the production and transport of coal, natural gas and oil, as well as from livestock and decaying organic waste at landfill sites.

The team also point out that methane in the atmosphere is gradually removed by reacting with certain unstable 'radicals', such as hydroxyl radical, resulting in an approximate 10-year lifetime.

This is short-lived compared to CO2, which is said to hang around in Earth's atmosphere for hundreds of years.

Researchers then further estimated the possible warming potentially caused by the Nord Stream methane leaks in the 'near term', defined as the next 20 years.

They used 'global warming potential' (GWP) – a measure of how much energy the emissions of 1 ton of a gas will absorb over a given period of time, relative to the emissions of 1 ton of CO2.

They found that the quantity of heat accumulated per unit mass of methane in the next 20 years after its emission into the atmosphere is 82.5 times that of CO2.

Armed with this information, they were able to calculate that the climatic impact of the leaked methane is equivalent to that of 20.6 million tons of CO2.

But this would raise the atmospheric CO2 concentration by only 0.0026 parts per million (ppm) and in turn cause a 'tiny' increase in warming that cannot be perceived in ecosystems or by humans, said study author Dr Xiaolong Chen.

The team conclude that human-cased or 'anthropogenic' methane emissions – from the likes of coal mining, agricultural activities and more – need to be reduced to hit the targets of the Paris Agreement.

Adopted in 2016, the Paris Agreement aims to hold an increase in global average temperature to below 2°C (3.6°F) and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C (2.7°F).

'If we are going to achieve the warming target of below 1.5°C or 2°C set out in the Paris Agreement, damage to infrastructure such as this should be avoided so that we can better control and reduce methane emissions,' said Dr Chen.



In this picture provided by Swedish Coast Guard, the gas leak in the Baltic Sea from Nord Stream photographed from the Coast Guard's aircraft on Wednesday, September 27, 2022© Provided by Daily Mail

Estimates published last month by Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) put the estimates of methane emitted from the Nord Stream leaks somewhere between 56,000 and 155,000 metric tonnes.

But the Norwegian team also said this was 'negligible' and only about 0.01 to 0.03 per cent of the methane emitted globally every year.

'Reducing methane emissions needs to be a global priority this decade if we are to have any chance at keeping warming below 1.5°C by 2030,' said Rona Thompson at NILU.

The European Space Agency (ESA) has already said that the Nord Stream leak 'pales in comparison' with the 80 million metric tonnes emitted each year by the oil and gas industry. Read more

ROFLMAO 

Iran accuses Western countries of «training» protesters in «making weapons and Molotov cocktails»

CIA

Molotov cocktail - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Molotov_cocktail

A Molotov cocktail is a hand thrown incendiary weapon constructed from a frangible container filled with flammable substances equipped with a fuse ...

‎Molotov bread basket · ‎Frangible Grenade M1 · ‎Frangibility · ‎Improvised weapon

Iranian Foreign Minister Hosein Amirabdolahian has accused Western countries of promoting violence during the latest protests in the country and said that several states have reportedly offered "training" for the "manufacture of weapons and Molotov cocktails".

Iran's Foreign Minister Hosein Amirabdolahian - -/Kremlin/dpa

Amirabdolahian told UN Secretary General António Guterres that "in violation of the UN Charter, a few Western countries have acted to incite violence and offer training in the manufacture of weapons and Molotov cocktails" to protesters.

He has also said that these unspecified countries "exploited peaceful demands in Iran, which has resulted in the death of policemen and the creation of insecurity in Iran, to the point of paving the way for an Islamic State terrorist act."

Amirabdolahian thus linked incidents in protests over the September death in custody of Mahsa Amini, arrested for allegedly wearing the veil incorrectly, to the October attack by the jihadist group on a mausoleum in Shiraz.

In this line, he criticized that some countries "try to convene a meeting of the Human Rights Council on Iran" and stressed that this meeting should take place to address the acts of countries that "incite violence and terrorism".

"Iran is a true defender of Human Rights and has shown great restraint during the recent unrest", he said, amidst the denunciations of NGOs for the death of more than 300 people due to the repression of the demonstrations by Iranian security forces.

The Iranian judiciary recently indicated that more than 1,000 people have been charged so far for their involvement in "unrest" during the protests and vowed to respond "firmly" to the incidents, a day after more than 220 Iranian parliamentarians called on the courts to issue death sentences against protesters and compared them to members of the Islamic State.

CIA

PREVIEW

1:32

How do Molotov Cocktails Work?

YouTube · Concerning Reality

CIA

The history of the Molotov cocktail, an iconic weapon of ...

https://www.nationalgeographic.com › history › article

Mar 10, 2022 — For nearly a century, the device—called also a petrol bomb or a gasoline bomb—has been the most accessible weapon for underdogs fighting against ...