Showing posts sorted by relevance for query CONSPIRACY THEORIES. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query CONSPIRACY THEORIES. Sort by date Show all posts

Friday, December 08, 2023



First-of-its-kind study sheds light on the psychological impact of antisemitic conspiracy theories on Jewish people

2023/12/08


New research published in the British Journal of Psychology shows that Jewish individuals who believe antisemitic conspiracy theories are prevalent in society experience increased feelings of threat and a tendency to avoid those outside their group. This study, one of the first of its kind, sheds light on the often-overlooked consequences of conspiracy theories on the groups they target.

While a significant amount of research has been done on why people believe in conspiracy theories, there has been little focus on how these theories affect the groups they target. Conspiracy theories can be harmful, often targeting specific groups with accusations of secret, malevolent actions. This new study aimed to understand the impact of such beliefs on Jewish individuals, a group frequently subjected to conspiracy theories.

“We can’t fully appreciate how conspiracy theories divide society unless we consider how the targets of these beliefs are affected,” explained study author Daniel Jolley (@DrDanielJolley), an assistant professor in social psychology at the University of Nottingham. “Whilst research exploring the consequences of those who subscribe to conspiracy theories is undoubtedly important, a notable oversight is the research examining the perspective of the targets of conspiracy theories. Our work therefore sought to explore how conspiracy theories about social groups can have significant negative effects on their members.”

The first part of the study involved 250 Jewish participants, mostly from the United States, Israel, and the United Kingdom. They were asked to estimate how popular they thought various Jewish conspiracy theories were among non-Jewish people. Following this, the participants rated their feelings of threat from these conspiracies and their level of anxiety about interacting with non-Jewish people. The study also measured their preference for avoiding contact with non-Jewish individuals.

The researchers found that participants who believed that conspiracy theories about Jewish people were more popular felt more threatened and showed a stronger preference for avoiding contact with non-Jewish people. However, there was no direct link between the perceived popularity of these conspiracy theories and personal anxiety when meeting non-Jewish people.

The second study took a different approach, using an experimental method with 210 Jewish participants from the United States. The participants were randomly exposed to manipulated information suggesting that either many or few non-Jewish people believed in Jewish conspiracy theories. The participants then rated their levels of intergroup threat, personal anxiety, and avoidance preferences similar to the first study.

Participants exposed to the scenario where many non-Jews believed in conspiracy theories reported higher levels of threat and perceived anger within their group. However, their personal anxiety and avoidance preferences didn’t show significant differences from those exposed to the scenario where few non-Jews believed in these theories. This reinforced the notion that the perceived prevalence of these theories among outsiders could influence internal group emotions, particularly a sense of threat and collective anger.

“Our work focused on the impact of conspiracy theories about Jewish people on the emotions and behaviors of the Jewish community,” Jolley told PsyPost. “Our studies revealed that perceiving Jewish conspiracy theories as popular is linked with Jewish feeling threatened, angry and anxious. These conspiracy beliefs are also linked to Jewish people being more avoidant of non-Jewish people.”

The third study, involving 209 American Jewish participants, built further on these findings. Participants were again exposed to manipulated scenarios indicating varying levels of belief in conspiracy theories among non-Jewish people. This time, the researchers also measured the participants’ willingness to take collective action in support of Jewish people and introduced an opportunity for participants to engage in a simulated online interaction with a non-Jewish person.

The participants who were led to believe that conspiracy theories were widely held showed greater willingness for collective action and were more likely to avoid interacting with a non-Jewish person in the behavioral task. This study provided a crucial link between perceptions, emotions, and actual behavior, demonstrating that the perceived popularity of conspiracy theories can lead to real-world avoidance of intergroup contact.

“One surprising aspect of our findings was the dual effect of perceived conspiracy popularity,” Jolley said. “On one hand, it increased group solidarity within the targeted community, fostering intentions to support fellow members. However, it also fueled a desire to avoid interactions with individuals outside the community. This nuanced perspective adds complexity to the understanding of the consequences of intergroup conspiracy theories, highlighting both positive and negative outcomes.”

These studies collectively highlight a critical aspect of conspiracy theories – their impact on the targeted groups. The findings underscore that conspiracy theories are more than just a societal curiosity; they have tangible, adverse effects on those they target. They contribute to a sense of threat, emotional distress, and social avoidance within these groups, which can exacerbate social divides and perpetuate misunderstanding and prejudice.

“Our work focused on the Jewish community,” Jolley said. “However, we believe that our findings are very unlikely to be isolated to Jewish people. Conspiracy theories target many different groups – from healthcare workers and scientists to entire social groups. The same impacts such as feeling threatened, angry, and anxious, and a desire to avoid others, are likely observed in a wide range of target groups.”

“We hope that our work acts as a catalyst for exploring the impact of perceived conspiracy popularity in other groups, and that such work can provide important insights that can used to support those who are targeted.”

The study, “The impact of conspiracy beliefs on a targeted group: Perceived popularity of Jewish-targeted conspiracy beliefs elicits outgroup avoidant behaviours“, was authored by Daniel Jolley, Jenny L. Paterson, and Andrew McNeill.

© PsyPost

Sunday, October 01, 2023

The “need for chaos” is linked to the sharing of conspiracy theories, study finds



New research suggests that a psychological concept known as “the need for chaos” plays a bigger role than partisanship and ideology in the sharing of conspiracy theories on the internet. The study, published in Research & Politics, indicates that individuals driven by a desire to disrupt and challenge established systems are more inclined to share conspiracy theories.

The study was authored by Christina Farhart (assistant professor, Carleton College), Erin Fitz (PhD candidate, Colorado State University), Joanne Miller (professor, University of Delaware), and Kyle Saunders (professor, Colorado State University).

The authors wanted to explore three specific motivations behind the sharing of conspiracy theories: motivated sharing (sharing to bolster their or their group’s beliefs), sounding the alarm (sharing to generate collective action against a political outgroup due to feelings of losing), and the need for chaos (sharing to disrupt the political system regardless of partisanship or belief).

“We were motivated by prior research that revealed the relationship between the need for chaos and willingness to share conspiracy theories on social media,” the researchers told PsyPost.

“Although earlier work found a positive relationship between the need for chaos and sharing (and that the need for chaos superseded partisan motivations for sharing) these studies did not assess how the need for chaos affected sharing when pitted against a direct measure of conspiracy theory belief. Testing these mechanisms together is important because people who believe conspiracy theories might be more willing to share them online, but belief is not a necessary condition for sharing.”

To conduct the study, the researchers administered an original survey in December 2018 using the Lucid platform, which recruits online survey respondents in line with US Census demographics. The survey included questions about respondents’ beliefs in specific conspiracy theories and their willingness to share those conspiracy theories. A total of 3,336 respondents participated in the survey. Among them, 1,772 identified as Democrats/leaning Democrat, and 1,564 identified as Republicans/leaning Republican.

Motivated sharing was operationalized by assessing respondents’ beliefs in specific conspiracy theories and their willingness to share those conspiracy theories. The study examined how the willingness to share was related to whether the conspiracy theories aligned with respondents’ partisan identity.

For example, an item assessing Democratic-aligned conspiracy theories asked: “Some people believe Donald Trump is plotting with secret societies of white supremacists, such as the Ku Klux Klan, to take control of the United States. Others do not believe this. What do you think?”

On the other hand, an item assessing Republican-aligned conspiracy theories asked: “Some people believe that the Mueller investigation is not, in fact, an investigation into the Trump campaign’s collusion with the Russian government. Instead, they believe it is an investigation into nefarious activities, including child molestation and a variety of other crimes, perpetrated by the Clintons, Barack Obama, and other unelected people who are currently working behind the scenes to run the government. Others do not believe this. What do you think?”

To measure the “sounding the alarm” motivation, the researchers asked respondents about their perception of whether their political side was winning or losing more often on issues that mattered to them. The study explored how the feeling of being on the losing side influenced the willingness to share conspiracy theories.

The researchers employed the eight-item Need for Chaos scale to measure individuals’ desire for extreme disruption of the established democratic system. This scale aimed to assess whether individuals with a higher need for chaos were more likely to share conspiracy theories regardless of their truth value or partisanship.

Those with a high need for chaos agree with statements such as “We cannot fix the problems in our social institutions, we need to tear them down and start over” and “I need chaos around me – it is too boring if nothing is going on.”

The researchers also included various control variables to account for other factors that might influence respondents’ willingness to share conspiracy theories, such as their strength of partisan identity, authoritarianism, trust, religiosity, education, income, gender, age, ethnicity, and race.

After controlling for these variables, the researchers confirmed that the need for chaos was positively associated with the willingness to share conspiracy theories on social media. Individuals with a higher need for chaos were more likely to express willingness to share all six conspiracy theories included in the study.

They also found that individuals who believed in a conspiracy theory were more willing to share that theory on social media. In other words, belief in a conspiracy theory was a strong predictor of the willingness to share it.

“While we also found that those with a higher need for chaos consistently expressed greater willingness to share conspiracy theories on social media, our results ultimately indicated that belief in conspiracy theories was the strongest predictor of willingness to share,” the researchers told PsyPost. “These findings contribute to our understanding of why people share conspiracy theories by suggesting that, whereas some individuals share specifically to impugn political rivals, others do so to challenge the entire political system.”

Surprisingly, loser perceptions (feeling that one’s side is losing in politics) were negatively associated with the willingness to share conspiracy theories. Those who perceived their side as currently winning more often than losing expressed greater willingness to share conspiracy theories.

Contrary to expectations, the researchers also did not find a significant relationship between partisanship or ideology and the willingness to share conspiracy theories. Partisanship and ideology did not robustly predict the sharing of either ideologically-aligned or ideologically-inconsistent conspiracy theories.

The study, like all research, also includes some caveats. The study is observational, meaning it’s based on observing and analyzing existing behaviors rather than manipulating variables. This prevents the researchers from drawing causal conclusions about the relationships between motives, beliefs, and sharing behavior.

“Altogether, our findings reveal that prior notions of partisanship and chaos as drivers of sharing hostile political rumors (including [conspiracy theories]) are perhaps more nuanced than extant literature suggests,” the researchers concluded.

The study, “By any memes necessary: Belief- and chaos-driven motives for sharing conspiracy theories on social media“, was published online August 1, 2023.

© PsyPost

Friday, October 09, 2020

A psychologist explains why people cling to conspiracy theories during uncertain times


John M. Grohol, Psych Central
Conspiracy theories blaming 5G for the coronavirus have exploded online. Cindy Ord/Getty Images

Conspiracy theories frequently surface after traumatic events and during times of uncertainty, such as in the aftermath of mass shootings or during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Far-fetched theories can spread rapidly online and via social media. Recently, a study indicated that nearly one third of Americans believe in a conspiracy theory about the coronavirus, such as one that claims the outbreak is linked to 5G internet.

Dr. John Grohol, a psychologist and the founder of Psych Central, says that conspiracy theorists come up with ideas out of thin air to match whatever 'fact' they think is true, and often use paranoia-based beliefs to convince others.

He says that these people tend to be uncooperative, distrustful, and socially isolated — which is why believing in a conspiracy theory with strangers on the internet can give them a sense of belonging.

Conspiracy theories are as old as time, but it's only in more recent years that psychologists have begun to unravel the belief that some people have in them. According to researcher Goertzel (1994), conspiracy theories are explanations that refer to hidden groups working in secret to achieve sinister objectives.

Dr. John Grohol. Courtesy of John Grohol

Whether it's the killing of a US President (Kennedy), a mass-shooting involving a seemingly-normal older white, adult male (Las Vegas), or the Charlie Hebdo murders, conspiracy theories are never far behind. Even climate change has a conspiracy theory attached to it (the US government is to blame, naturally).

What drives people's belief in these "out there" explanations for significant events? Let's find out.

There is a conspiracy theory that there were two shooters at the Las Vegas massacre, the largest mass-shooting in modern US history. The theory — believed by tens of thousands of people around the world — rests on the "evidence" of two grainy, hard-to-hear videos from eyewitnesses. These videos suggest that somehow a second shooter was able to shoot from the 4th floor of the Mandalay Bay hotel — despite the fact that there were no broken windows on the 4th floor, and police searching the building floor-by-floor heard no such shots.1

What is the purpose of the second shooter? As proof that the official narrative is false, as the second shooter points to some "new world order" plot that is intent on taking over our government and society. Or something like that. The rationale for a second shooter requires a suspension of your belief in reality and simple critical thinking.
The psychology behind conspiracy theories

Researchers have been hard at work examining why a small minority of the population believe, and even thrive, on conspiracy theories.

Lantian et al. (2017) summarize the characteristics associated with a person who is likely to believe in conspiracy theories:

… personality traits such as openness to experience, distrust, low agreeability, and Machiavellianism are associated with conspiracy belief.

"Low agreeability" refers to a trait of "agreeableness," which psychologists define as how much an individual is dependable, kind, and cooperative. Someone with low agreeability is an individual who is usually not very dependable, kind, or cooperative. Machiavellianism refers to a personality trait where a person is so "focused on their own interests they will manipulate, deceive, and exploit others to achieve their goals."

Lantian et al. (2017) continue:

In terms of cognitive processes, people with stronger conspiracy beliefs are more likely to overestimate the likelihood of co-occurring events, to attribute intentionality where it is unlikely to exist, and to have lower levels of analytic thinking.

None of this should be surprising, because once you start to analyze a situation with demonstrable facts, it usually — and quite thoroughly — will break down the conspiracy theory into its component parts, none of which make sense standing on their own. For example, with zero evidence, conspiracy theorists need to invent a reason for a second shooter in Las Vegas, to match what they see as "facts." But once a person starts inventing a narrative out of thin air, you can see very little critical thinking occurring.

Conspiracy theories make a person feel special

Lantian et al.'s (2017) research examined the role of a person's 'need for uniqueness' and a belief of conspiracy theories, and found a correlation.

We argue that people high in need for uniqueness should be more likely than others to endorse conspiracy beliefs because conspiracy theories represent the possession of unconventional and potentially scarce information. […] Moreover, conspiracy theories rely on narratives that refer to secret knowledge (Mason, 2002) or information, which, by definition, is not accessible to everyone, otherwise it would not be a secret and it would be a well-known fact.

People who believe in conspiracy theories can feel "special," in a positive sense, because they may feel that they are more informed than others about important social and political events. […]

Our findings can also be connected to recent research demonstrating that individual narcissism, or a grandiose idea of the self, is positively related to belief in conspiracy theories. Interestingly, Cichocka et al. (2016) found that paranoid thought mediates the relationship between individual narcissism and conspiracy beliefs.

The current work suggests, however, that need for uniqueness could be an additional mediator of this relationship. Indeed, previous work has shown that narcissism is positively correlated with need for uniqueness (Emmons, 1984) and here we showed that need for uniqueness is related to conspiracy belief.
People who believe in conspiracy theories are likely more alienated and socially isolated

Moulding et al. (2016) also dug into the characteristics of people who believe in conspiracy theories in two studies.

It has been noted that individuals who endorse conspiracy theories are likely to be higher in powerlessness, social isolation, and 'anomia,' which is broadly defined as a subjective disengagement from social norms.

Such disengagement from the normative social order may result in greater conspiratorial thinking for a number of related reasons. First, individuals who feel alienated may consequently reject conventional explanations of events, as they reject the legitimacy of the source of these explanations. Due to these individuals feeling alienated from their peers, they may also turn to conspiracist groups for a sense of belonging and community, or to marginalized subcultures in which conspiracy theories are potentially more rife.

People who feel powerless may also endorse conspiracy theories as they also help the individual avoid blame for their predicament. In this sense, conspiracy theories give a sense of meaning, security and control over an unpredictable and dangerous world. Finally, and most simply, conspiracy beliefs — which imply a level of Machiavellianism and power enacted by those without fixed morality — are most likely to resonate with people who feel powerless and believe that society lacks norms.

The Internet has amplified the abilities of these like-minded people to come together to share and expand on their conspiracy theories. It took only hours after the Las Vegas massacre for a conspiracy Facebook group to appear with more than 5,000 members.

In their study, Moulding et al. (2016) found that, consistent with their hypotheses, "endorsement of conspiracy theories related moderately-to-strongly with the alienation-related variables — isolation, powerlessness, normlessness, and disengagement from social norms."

Researcher van Prooijen (2016) also found that self-esteem instability resulting in self-uncertainty also is a characteristic associated with a greater likelihood to believe in conspiracy theories. People who don't feel like they belong to any one group — a trait psychologists refer to as 'belongingness' — are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories.

Conspiracy theories are driven by people, not facts

You can't really argue with people who believe in conspiracy theories, because their beliefs aren't rational. Instead, they are often fear- or paranoia-based beliefs that, when confronted with contrarian factual evidence, will dismiss both the evidence and the messenger who brings it.2 That's because conspiracy theories are driven by the people who believe and spread them and their own psychological makeup — not on the factual support or logical reasoning of the theory itself.

Conspiracy theories aren't going away, for as long as there are people who have a need to believe in them, they will continue to expand and thrive. The Internet and social media sites such as Facebook have only made such theories even easier to spread. Save your breath arguing with people who believe in them, as no amount of facts will dissuade them from their false belief.

Footnotes:
The conspiracy theorists apparently don't realize that all of Mandalay Bay's windows do not open, like in most Vegas hotels. If there was no broken window, there was no way a person could shoot from the 4th floor. And independent police departments as well as individual officers and first-responders suddenly become a part of the whole government conspiracy. []
"Fake news" they'll say, as though that is a rational, mature, and cohesive argument in reply. []


John M. Grohol, PsyD, is the founder and editor-in-chief of PsychCentral.com, a mental health and human behavior technology expert, coauthor of Self-Help That Works, and a published researcher. He sits on the scientific board of the journal, Computers in Human Behavior, and is a founding board member of the Society for Participatory Medicine.

This piece was originally published on Business Insider April 27, 2020, and is republished with permission from PsychCentral.com. All rights reserved. Read the original article here. This piece was last updated June 8, 2018.Read the original article on Psych Central. Copyright 2020.


READ MORE: Bill Gates points to social media as the reason coronavirus conspiracy theories spread so rapidly: 'Incorrect things that are very titillating can spread very rapidly compared to the truth'

Thursday, May 21, 2020

FILM
Tracing conspiracy theories in film

Oliver Stone's 1991 movie about the Kennedy assassination was a masterpiece of the genre. While many of these films come from Hollywood, there’s also a history of conspiracy films in Germany.

ALL MADE UP? CONSPIRACY THEORIES IN MOVIES
'JFK' (1991)
US director Oliver Stone has often dealt with conspiracies in his films. His 1991 movie "JFK" looks into the alleged cover-up of President John F. Kennedy's assassination. Prosecutor Jim Garrison (Kevin Costner) does not believe that a lone gunman killed JFK; his theory is that a widespread network, the "deep state," is behind the assassination.

Presumably, no one has ever postulated the following theory: that the coronavirus was brought into the world by the powerful lobby surrounding streaming giants Netflix, Amazon and others as a way to bring their competitors — the movie theaters — to their knees.

This is, of course, absolute nonsense. And yet, nobody can rule out that there's someone in the world would actually make such an absurd claim. No conspiracy theory seems to be crazy enough that it would not be written down on paper or spread indiscriminately on the internet.

Read more: Opinion: Conspiracy theories on the rise

Conspiracy theories are not theories at all - but irrational mind games

In these times, when conspiracy theories are running rampant in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, it is worth taking a look back at film history. But before we do that, we have to take note that the term "conspiracy theory" in itself is nonsensical. After all, we are not talking about actual theories, but instead about "myths," "narratives," and even "fairy tales." Those terms seem more appropriate because conspiracy theories usually have less to do with "theory" than with what they're actually directed at.

The Vietnam trauma encouraged conspiracy theories in the US: Robert Redford and Faye Dunaway in the paranoia thriller "The Three Days of Condor"

The assassination of US President John F. Kennedy in Dallas in 1963 led to a whole flood of conspiracy theories. At times, people claimed it was the CIA who had conducted the assassination; sometimes it was the Soviet Union, sometimes the Cubans or Cuban exiles. Then there is the theory that members of the mafia perpetrated the assassination; another theory is the later Presidents Lyndon B. Johnson or George Bush Senior were behind it.

And these are just some of the more "serious" theories — if you can use that adjective in this context at all. Some of the more bizarre "theories" claim that homosexuals or UFOs played a major role in the murder.

Popular films revolving around political-economic conspiracies: JFK

At some point, of course, the film industry began tapping into such notions. Since the murder of Kennedy still doesn't seem to be completely solved, authors, producers and directors have had plenty of freedom in concocting their own stories.

Where facts remain hidden, it's easy to speculate. Oliver Stone's 1991 film JFK (see article image) is still the most popular film about the Kennedy murder today. Kevin Costner, who starred in the film, was at the height of his career at the time, as was US director Oliver Stone.

For all its cinematic brilliance, Stone's film fueled further speculations about the masterminds behind the assassination. Director Stone's focus was mainly on the arms industry. The idea was that arms producers were allegedly behind the assassination, as Kennedy aimed to end the Cold War.

The logic was that, with no threat of war and no arms race, fewer weapons would be purchased, resulting in declining revenue for the industry. According to the thesis expressed in the film, the person responsible for this development — President Kennedy — had to be eliminated.

Cinema and conspiracy theories — populist, entertaining, critical

Cinema has always enjoyed taking up conspiracy theories; as popular subjects they either reveal true conspiracies or only deal in speculation.

Some films have fueled conspiracy theories, with the anti-Semitic propaganda movies of Nazi Germany being a particularly grave example. Films that critically question conspiracy theories also exist.

Read more: Conspiracies are always 'theories of power'

Many films on the subject have been created in Hollywood, perhaps due to the powerful film industry there with all its creative possibilities and imaginative minds. But there are probably other reasons as well: In the current heated atmosphere in the US, where the president in particular deals in fringe theories, the climate for conspiracy theories appears to be flourishing.

Perhaps it also has to do with the size of the US, the relative independence of the states, the citizens' love of freedom and the physical distance to the capital, Washington DC, from most parts of the country. A lack of education always fosters conspiracy theories — an issue which may also apply to parts of the US.

A German silent movie with a conspiracy theme: Fritz Lang's "The Testament Of Dr. Mabuse"

But German cinema has also contributed a great deal to the subject. Even during the heyday of Weimar cinema, when people acted in silent movies, the topic of conspiracies was repeatedly addressed, such as in The Cabinet of Dr. Caligari, Fritz Lang's Mabuse films, as well as his masterpiece Metropolis, — all of which look atconspiracies in one way or another.

It's also easy to imagine that in just a few years, there will be a whole new wave of conspiracy film thrillers dealing with the subject of the coronavirus.

DW RECOMMENDS


WhatsApp restricts spread of coronavirus misinformation

The messaging app WhatsApp has moved to limit the increasing spread of misinformation through its platform. The WHO has identified an "infodemic" of false medical advice and conspiracy theories around COVID-19 online. (07.04.2020)


'Pandemic populism': Germany sees rise in conspiracy theories

With the COVID-19 crisis sparking uncertainty, conspiracy theories are booming in Germany. Right-wing activists in particular are trying to stir up hatred against politicians and the democratic system, a new study warns. (26.04.2020)


Coronavirus: How do I recognize a conspiracy theory?

Conspiracy theories are coming in hard and fast during the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of them even sound plausible. So it's important to know: what makes a conspiracy theory? And why are they so popular? (19.05.2020)


All made up? Conspiracy theories in movies

Against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic, Germany abounds with conspiracy theories. Movies have for decades been devoted to all kinds of conspiracies — including those that actually exist. (19.05.2020)



Date 19.05.2020
Author Jochen Kürten (als)
Related Subjects Fritz Lang, Oliver Stone
Keywords conspiracy theories, film, movies, Oliver Stone, Fritz Lang, John F. Kennedy

Tuesday, July 18, 2023

Positive contact with diverse groups can reduce belief in conspiracy theories about them


Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF NOTTINGHAM



New research has shown that having positive contact with people from diverse groups can reduce the development of harmful intergroup conspiracy beliefs.

Experts from the University of Nottingham’s School of Psychology, in collaboration with the University of East Anglia, found that among British participants, positive intergroup contact interfered with the development of conspiracy theories about other groups. The findings have been published today in the European Journal of Social Psychology.

Social psychologist Dr Daniel Jolley from the University of Nottingham led the research and explains: “Intergroup conspiracy theories are common and potentially can lead to everything from misinformed voting to extreme expressions of prejudice. Seeking ways to reduce conspiracy theories is of particular importance.”

Three studies were conducted with over 1,000 people, where the team explored whether positive intergroup contact interferes with the development of conspiracy theories about other social groups.

The first two studies explored relationships, where British participants were asked about their experience of contact with immigrants (Study 1) or Jewish people (Study 2) and their belief in conspiracy theories in relation to them. In the third study, participants were asked to think about a positive contact experience with a Jewish person and then report their conspiracy beliefs held about this group. Participants also reported their feelings (prejudice) towards the target group in each study.

The research demonstrated that those people who had experienced higher quality positive contact with Jewish people or immigrants or imagined a positive contact experience were less likely to believe conspiracy theories about them. Importantly, these effects remained even when accounting for (negative) feelings towards the target group, demonstrating that the effect is not merely another prejudice reduction effect.

Dr Jolley explains: “The research findings offer a promising potential starting point for developing tools to bring diverse groups of people together who may not usually have contact and try to foster positive conversations to help reduce potentially harmful conspiracy theories from taking hold.

“Whilst the problems are often very complex, and positive contact will not solve all the issues surrounding conspiracy theories towards certain groups, the fact that this work offers a potential tool to reduce intergroup conspiracy theories is a notable breakthrough. Our work offers a framework that, along with future research, might lead to the reduction of conspiracy beliefs in the general population”.

Friday, July 22, 2022

Beliefs in conspiracy theories may not be increasing

New findings challenge widespread perceptions by the public, scholars, journalists, and policymakers

Peer-Reviewed Publication

PLOS

“Conspiracy” typed out on a typewriter. 

IMAGE: “CONSPIRACY” TYPED OUT ON A TYPEWRITER. view more 

CREDIT: MARKUS WINKLER, UNSPLASH, CC0 (HTTPS://CREATIVECOMMONS.ORG/PUBLICDOMAIN/ZERO/1.0/)

A new analysis contradicts popular thinking about beliefs in conspiracy theories, suggesting that such beliefs may not have actually increased over time. Joseph Uscinski of the University of Miami, Florida, and colleagues present these findings in the open-access journal PLOS ONE on July 20, 2022.

Belief in a conspiracy theory involves holding the opinion that a small group of people has covertly coordinated to cause a certain event or circumstance, despite a lack of appropriate evidence. In recent years, the perception that beliefs in conspiracy theories have increased has become widespread among the general public, as well as among scholars, journalists, and policymakers, with many blaming social media. However, few studies have examined whether such perceptions actually hold true.

To help clarify whether beliefs in conspiracy theories are increasing, Uscinski and colleagues conducted four different survey analyses. For the first, they investigated whether beliefs in certain conspiracy theories—including theories related to COVID-19 and the Kennedy assassination—have increased among Americans. The second analysis evaluated beliefs in conspiracy theories, such as the idea that human-driven global warming is a hoax, in six European countries. The third analysis addressed Americans’ beliefs in which specific groups are conspiring, and the fourth measured general lines of thought in the U.S. linked to belief in conspiracy theories.

In all four analyses, the researchers found no statistically significant evidence that beliefs in conspiracy theories have increased over time. A greater number of beliefs in specific theories decreased than increased over time, and of those that did increase, none involved the COVID-19 pandemic nor QAnon.

The researchers emphasize the importance of caution in making inferences based in their findings and note that additional research will be needed to confirm the findings and to better understand beliefs in conspiracy theories, such as their psychological underpinnings and how they are promoted.

Nonetheless, these findings suggest that beliefs in conspiracy theories exist at certain baseline levels that may be concerning, and perhaps these levels are only now becoming more apparent to the public.

Dr. Adam Enders adds: “Despite popular claims about America slipping down the conspiracy theory rabbit hole into a state of post-truth, we do not find that conspiracism has increased over time. We examine beliefs in dozens of specific conspiracy theories, perceptions of who is likely to be involved in conspiracy theories, and the general predisposition to interpret events and circumstances as the product of conspiracy theories––in no case do we observe an average increase in conspiracy beliefs.”

Dr. Joseph Uscinski adds: “Some conspiracy theories are gaining in popularity, but many are not. At any given time, perhaps because of political circumstances, some conspiracy theories will be more attractive, but at the same time, many other will recede into history.”

#####

In your coverage please use this URL to provide access to the freely available article in PLOS ONEhttps://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0270429

Citation: Uscinski J, Enders A, Klofstad C, Seelig M, Drochon H, Premaratne K, et al. (2022) Have beliefs in conspiracy theories increased over time? PLoS ONE 17(7): e0270429. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0270429

Author Countries: U.S.A., U.K.

Funding: National Science Foundation Grant #2123635 paid for effort by JU, CK, MS, KP, and MM’s efforts. URL: https://www.nsf.gov/. Portions of the data used in this study was funded by the Leverhulme Trust. Project title: Conspiracy and Democracy URL: https://www.leverhulme.ac.uk/former-schemes/conspiracy-and-democracy. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Friday, February 02, 2024

Takeaways from the AP's look at the role of conspiracy theories in American politics and society

DAVID KLEPPER
Updated Wed, January 31, 2024 

This image provided by the Adventist Digital Library shows part of a Millerite document circulated on Oct. 16, 1844, in the Boston area, with a headline reading, "End of the World, October 22, 1844!!" Before the appointed day, many of William Miller’s followers sold or gave away their possessions, donned white clothing and headed for high land — in some parts of Massachusetts they climbed trees on the highest hills — so as to hasten their reunion with God. 
(Adventist Digital Library via AP)


WASHINGTON (AP) — Conspiracy theories have a long history.

Humans have always speculated about secret motives and plots as a way to understand their world and avoid danger.

These days, however, conspiracy theories and those who believe them seem to be playing an outsize role in politics and culture.

Republican Donald Trump has amplified conspiracy theories about climate changeelectionsvoting and crime, and has expressed support for the QAnon conspiracy theory. His lies about the 2020 election he lost to Democrat Joe Biden spurred the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, an event that quickly spun off its own conspiracy theories.

On the left, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has exploited conspiracy theories about vaccines to wage his own campaign for the presidency this year.

Conspiracy theories have also proven lucrative for those cashing in on unfounded medical claims, investment proposals or fake news websites.

The Associated Press has examined the history of conspiracy theories in the United States.

Interviews with experts on technology, psychology and politics give insight into why people choose to believe and spread conspiracy theories, and how those beliefs are affecting our mental health, our politics and our society.

A look at some of the biggest takeaways from the investigation:

A LONG HISTORY

Conspiracy theories exposed social tensions long before the American Revolution and the birth of U.S. democracy.

Just as now, early conspiracy theories reflected popular worries of the day. In the years immediately after the American Revolution, rumors and hoaxes circulated about dark plots by the Illuminati and Freemasons, suggesting those secret organizations wanted to control the republic.

Likewise, the conspiracy theories of the modern age often reflect uncertainties about technology, immigration and government overreach. Stories about UFO coverupsmicrochips in vaccines or the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, being an inside job are examples.

While the specific claims in many of these tales can be debunked, the stories reflect anxieties shared by millions of people.

“We are the stories we tell ourselves,” said John Llewellyn, a professor at Wake Forest University who studies conspiracy theories and why people believe what they believe.

WHY PEOPLE BELIEVE

Humans thirst for information that can help them protect themselves and help them make better decisions for the future. This information, along with personal experiences, upbringing and cultural perspectives, creates a view of the world that helps people understand big events and forces in their lives.

Disasters, elections, wars and even the outcomes of sporting events can shake our perspective, and make us look for explanations. Sometimes that means accepting the facts. But sometimes it can be easier to embrace an alternative explanation.

Conspiracy theories can act as a shortcut to understanding. They fill in the gaps of understanding with speculation that often reflects more about the believer's inner beliefs than the events themselves. Conspiracy theories suggesting vaccinations are being used to implant microchips in people, for instance, reflect concerns about technology, medicine and government power.

With the internet, false claims and conspiracy theories can travel further and faster than ever. Social media algorithms prioritize content that elicits strong emotions, like anger and fear.

FACING THE DEMONS

The AP interviewed dozens of current and former conspiracy theory believers to understand what led them to believe. They consistently said conspiracy theories offered them a sense of power and control in a world that can seem random and chaotic.

“The pieces did not fit,” said Melissa Sell, a conspiracy theorist from Pennsylvania who began doubting the official narrative of history after the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting in Connecticut in 2012.

They spoke of growing distrust of democratic institutions and the media, and a gnawing feeling they were being lied to. The world of online conspiracy theories offered answers, and a built-in community of like-minded people.

“I was suicidal before I got into conspiracy theories,” said Antonio Perez, a Hawaii man who became obsessed with Sept. 11 conspiracy theories and QAnon until he decided that they were interfering with his life. But when he first found other online conspiracy theorists, he was ecstatic. “It’s like: My God, I’ve finally found my people!”

TURNING IDEAS INTO ACTION

Polls show nearly half of Americans believe a conspiracy theory and that those beliefs are almost always harmless. But when fringe views interfere with a person's job or relationships, they can lead to social isolation. And when people put their conspiracy theory beliefs into action, it can lead to violence.

In recent years, conspiracy theorists have tried to stop vaccine clinics, they've attacked election officials and they've committed murders that they say were motivated by their beliefs. The Jan. 6 riot is perhaps the most notable example of how conspiracy theories can lead to violence: The thousands of people who stormed the Capitol and fought with police were motivated by Trump's election lies.

Such rapidly spreading disinformation fuels extremist groups and encourages distrust — a particular concern during a year of big elections in the U.S. and other nations. RussiaChinaIran and other U.S. adversaries have worked to amplify conspiracy theories as a way to destabilize democracy further. Artificial intelligence's ability to rapidly create lifelike video and audio only increases the challenge.

“I think the post-truth world may be a lot closer than we’d like to believe,” said A.J. Nash, vice president for intelligence at ZeroFox, a cybersecurity firm that tracks disinformation. “What happens when no one believes anything anymore?”

PROFITING OFF BELIEF

As long as there have been conspiracy theories, people have tried to make a buck off of them. A century or more ago, peddlers went from town to town selling tonics and pills that they said could cure just about any problem. Nowadays, sales take place online. Business is booming.

There are supplements that claim to reverse aging, bogus treatments for COVID-19, T-shirts, investment scams claiming a new financial order is just around the corner.

The AP took a close look at conspiracy theories involving medbeds, which are futuristic-looking devices that believers think can reverse aging and cure a long list of illnesses. According to claims circulating online, the U.S. military is hiding the technology from the public but Trump, if he wins another term as president, will make them available for free. For people desperate to find help with a medical condition, the claims can be too tempting to ignore.

“There have always been hucksters selling medical cures, but I do feel like it’s accelerating,” said Timothy Caulfield, a health policy and law professor at the University of Alberta who studies medical ethics and fraud. “There are some forces driving that: obviously the internet and social media, and distrust of traditional medicine, traditional science. Conspiracy theories are creating and feeding this distrust.”

Grave peril of digital conspiracy theories: 'What happens when no one believes anything anymore?'

DAVID KLEPPER
Wed, January 31, 2024 







WASHINGTON (AP) — Days after Maui's wildfires killed scores of people and destroyed thousands of homes last August, a shocking claim spread with alarming speed on YouTube and TikTok: The blaze on the Hawaiian island was set deliberately, using futuristic energy weapons developed by the U.S. military.

Claims of “evidence” soon emerged: video footage on TikTok showing a beam of blinding white light, too straight to be lightning, zapping a residential neighborhood and sending flames and smoke into the sky. The video was shared many millions of times, amplified by neo-Nazis, anti-government radicals and supporters of the QAnon conspiracy theory, and presented as proof that America's leaders had turned on the country's citizens.

“What if Maui was just a practice run?” one woman asked on TikTok. “So that the government can use a direct energy weapon on us?”


The TikTok clip had nothing to do with the Maui fires. It was actually video of an electrical transformer explosion in Chile earlier in the year. But that didn't stop a TikTok user with a habit of posting conspiracy videos from using the clip to sow more fear and doubt. It was just one of severalsimilarvideos and images doctored and passed off as proof that the wildfires were no accident.

Conspiracy theories have a long history in America, but now they can be fanned around the globe in seconds, amplified by social media, further eroding truth with a newfound destructive force.

With the United States and many other nations facing big elections in 2024, , the perils of rapidly spreading disinformation, using ever more sophisticated technology such as artificial intelligence, now also threaten democracy itself — both by fueling extremist groups and by encouraging distrust.

“I think the post-truth world may be a lot closer than we’d like to believe,” said A.J. Nash, vice president for intelligence at ZeroFox, a cybersecurity firm that tracks disinformation. “What happens when no one believes anything anymore?”

Extremists and authoritarians deploy disinformation as potent weapons used to recruit new followers and expand their reach, using fake video and photos to fool their followers.

And even when they fail to convince people, the conspiracy theories embraced by these groups contribute to mounting distrust of authorities and democratic institutions, causing people to reject reliable sources of information while encouraging division and suspicion.

Melissa Sell, a 33-year-old Pennsylvania resident, is among those who has lost faith in the facts.

“If it’s a big news story on the TV, the majority of the time it’s to distract us from something else. Every time you turn around, there’s another news story with another agenda distracting all of us,” she said. Sell thinks the Maui wildfires may have been intentionally set, perhaps to distract the public, perhaps to test a new weapon. “Because the government has been caught in lies before, how do you know?” she said.

Absent meaningful federal regulations governing social media platforms, it's largely left to Big Tech companies to police their own sites, leading to confusing, inconsistent rules and enforcement. Meta, the owner of Instagram and Facebook, says it makes an effort to remove extremist content. Platforms such as X, formerly known as Twitter, as well as Telegram and far-right sites like Gab, allow it to flourish.

Federal election officials and some lawmakers have suggested regulations governing AI, including rules that would require political campaigns to label AI-generated images used in its ads. But those proposals wouldn't affect the ability of extremist groups or foreign governments to use AI to mislead Americans.

Meanwhile, U.S.-based tech platforms have rolled back their efforts to root out misinformation and hate speech, following the lead of Elon Musk, who fired most of the content moderators when he purchased X.

“There's been a big step backward,” said Evan Hansen, the former editor of Wired.com who was Twitter's director of curation before leaving when Musk purchased the platform. “It’s gotten to be a very difficult job for the casual observer to figure out: What do I believe here?”

Hansen said a combination of government regulations, voluntary action by tech titans and public awareness will be needed to combat the coming wave of synthetic media. He noted the Israel-Hamas war has already seen a deluge of fake and altered photos and video. Elections in the U.S. and around the world this year will create similar opportunities for digital mischief.

The disinformation spread by extremist groups and even politicians like former President Donald Trump can create the conditions for violence, by demonizing the other side, targeting democratic institutions and convincing their supporters that they're in an existential struggle against those who don't share their beliefs.

Trump has spread lies about elections, voting and his opponents for years. Building on his specious claims of a deep state that controls the federal government, he has echoed QAnon and other conspiracy theories and encouraged his followers to see their government as an enemy. He even suggested that now-retired Army Gen. Mark Milley, whom Trump himself nominated to be the top U.S. military officer during his administration, was a traitor and deserved execution. Milley said he has had to take security precautions to protect his family.

The list of incidents blamed on extremists motivated by conspiracy theories is growing. The Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, attacks on vaccine clinics, anti-immigrant fervor in Spain; and anti-Muslim hate in India: All were carried out by people who believed conspiracy theories about their opponents and who decided violence was an appropriate response.

Polls and research surveys on conspiracy theories show about half of Americans believe in at least one conspiracy theory, and those views seldom lead to violence or extremism. But for some, these beliefs can lead to social isolation and radicalization, interfering with their relationships, career and finances. For an even smaller subset, they can lead to violence.

The credible data that exists on crimes motivated by conspiracy theories shows a disturbing increase. In 2019, researchers at the University of Maryland’s National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism identified six violent attacks in which perpetrators said their actions were prompted by a conspiracy theory. In 2020, the year of the most recent survey, there were 116.

Laws designed to rein in the power of social media and artificial intelligence to spread disinformation aren't likely to pass before the 2024 election, and even if they are, enforcement will be a challenge, according to AI expert Vince Lynch, CEO of the tech company IV.AI.

“This is happening now, and it's one of the reasons why our society seems so fragmented," Lynch said. “Hopefully there may be AI regulation someday, but we are already through the looking glass. I do think it's already too late.”

To believers, the facts don’t matter.

“You can create the universe you want,” said Danielle Citron, a professor at the University of Virginia School of Law who studies online harassment and extremism. “If the truth doesn’t matter, and there is no accountability for these false beliefs, then people will start to act on them.”

Sell, the conspiracy theorist from Pennsylvania, said she began to lose trust in the government and the media shortly after the 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting in Newtown, Connecticut, that left 20 students and six educators dead. Sell thought the shooter looked too small and weak to carry out such a bloody act, and the gut-wrenching interviews with stricken loved ones seemed too perfect, almost practiced.

“It seemed scripted,” she said. “The pieces did not fit.”

That idea — that the victims of the rampage were actors hired as part of a plot to push gun control laws — was notably spread by conspiracy theorist Alex Jones. The families of Sandy Hook victims sued, and the Infowars host was later ordered to pay nearly $1.5 billion in damages.

Claims that America's elected leaders and media cannot be trusted feature heavily in many conspiracy theories with ties to extremism.

In 2018, a committed conspiracy theorist from Florida mailed pipe bombs to CNN, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and several other top Democrats; the man’s social media feed was littered with posts about child sacrifice and chemtrails — the debunked claim that airplane vapor clouds contain chemicals or biological agents being used to control the population.

In another act of violence tied to QAnon, a California man was charged with using a speargun to kill his two children in 2021. He told an FBI agent that he had been enlightened by QAnon conspiracy theories and had become convinced that his wife “possessed serpent DNA and had passed it on to his children.”

In 2022, a Colorado woman was found guilty of attempting to kidnap her son from foster care after her daughter said she began associating with QAnon supporters. Other adherents have been accused of environmental vandalism, firing paintballs at military reservists, abducting a child in France and even killing a New York City mob boss.

The coronavirus pandemic, with its attendant social isolation, created ideal conditions for new conspiracy theories as the virus spread fear and uncertainty around the globe. Vaccine clinics were attacked, doctors and nurses threatened. 5G communication towers were vandalized and burned as a wild theory spread claiming they were being used to activate microchips hidden in the vaccine. Fears about vaccines led one Wisconsin pharmacist to destroy a batch of the highly sought after immunizations, while bogus claims about supposed COVID-19 treatments and cures led to hospitalizations and death.

Few recent events, however, display the power of conspiracy theories like the Jan. 6 insurrection, when thousands of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol, vandalized the offices of Congress and fought with police in an attempt to disrupt the certification of the 2020 election.

More than 1,200 people have been charged with Capitol riot-related crimes. About 900 have pleaded guilty or been convicted after trials. Over 750 have been sentenced, with roughly two-thirds receiving some term of imprisonment, according to data compiled by The Associated Press. Many of those charged said they had bought into Trump’s conspiracy theories about a stolen election.

“We, meaning Trump supporters, were lied to,” wrote Jan. 6 defendant Robert Palmer in a letter to a judge, who later sentenced him to more than five years for attacking police. “They kept spitting out the false narrative about a stolen election and how it was ‘our duty’ to stand up to tyranny.”

Many conspiracy theorists reject any link between their beliefs and violence, saying they're being blamed for the actions of a tiny few. Others insist these incidents never occurred, and that events like the Jan. 6 attack were actually false-flag events concocted by the government and media.

“Lies, lies lies: They're lying to you over and over and over again,” said Steve Girard, a Pennsylvania man who has protested the incarceration of Jan. 6 defendants. He spoke to the AP while waving a large American flag on a busy street in Washington.

While they may have taken on a bigger role in our politics, surveys show that belief in conspiracy theories hasn't changed much over the years, according to Joe Uscinski, a University of Miami professor and an expert on the history of conspiracy theories. He said he believes that while the internet plays a role in spreading conspiracy theories, most of the blame lies with the politicians who exploit believers.

“Who was the bigger spreader of COVID misinformation: some guy with four followers on Twitter or the president of the United States? The problem is our politicians,” Uscinski said. “Jan. 6 happened, and people said: ‘Oh, this is Facebook’s fault.’ No, the president of the United States told his followers to be at this place, at this time and to fight like hell.”

Governments in Russia, China, Iran and elsewhere have also pushed extremist content on social media as part of their efforts to destabilize Western democracy. Russia has amplified numerous anti-U.S. conspiracy theories, including ones claiming the U.S. runs secret germ warfare labs and created HIV as a bioweapon, as well as conspiracy theories accusing Ukraine of being a Nazi state.

China has helped spread claims that the U.S. created COVID-19 as a bioweapon.

Tom Fishman, the CEO at the nonprofit Starts With Us, said that Americans can take steps to defend the social fabric by turning off their computer and meeting the people they disagree with. He said Americans must remember what ties them together.

“We can look at the window and see foreshadowing of what could happen if we don’t: threats to a functioning democracy, threats of violence against elected leaders,” he said. “We have a civic duty to get this right.”