Alberta NDP holds lead in new survey, but 'reluctant' UCP voters could be key on election day: pollster
Fri, December 16, 2022
A new poll says that if Albertans went to the polls today, Rachel Notley's NDP would likely win more votes, but with a provincial election still months away, the same survey suggests it could be the mood of "reluctant UCP" voters that is key in determining the outcome.
The survey from Abacus Data, conducted from Dec. 6 to 10, found that 38 per cent of Alberta respondents would cast their ballot for the provincial NDP, while 32 per cent would vote for Danielle Smith's United Conservative Party. Three per cent said they would support the Alberta Party. Twenty-five per cent of the 1,000 people surveyed said they were undecided.
There are notable differences between cities and regions, according to the survey.
NDP support appears highest in Edmonton, where it had the support of 54 per cent of respondents compared with 22 per cent backing the UCP. In Calgary, the survey suggests a tie between the two parties at 37 per cent. In "other areas," the UCP had 37 per cent support, versus 28 per cent for the NDP. In all three cases, the number of undecided voters was at least 20 per cent.
Among decided voters across the entire province, 51 per cent said they intend to vote NDP, while 43 per cent said they'd vote UCP.
Vote intention
But pollster David Coletto says in his analysis of the survey results that understanding how "reluctant UCP" voters react over the next few months will be crucial to anticipating the results of the next election.
The next provincial general election is scheduled for May 29, 2023.
Vote choice by region and community type
Vote choice by region and community type
Coletto describes "reluctant UCP" voters as those who voted for the party in 2019 and today say they are undecided or would vote for a party other than the United Conservatives. He said the group represents about 16 per cent of the electorate.
"They are, I think, a really critical segment of the electorate to understand because where they end up going, what they end up doing, could be the difference between an NDP or UCP government," Coletto said in an interview.
The respondents making up the "reluctant" UCP group are more likely to be female than male (62 per cent versus 38 per cent) and evenly distributed across age groups, according to Coletto. They are also more concentrated in Calgary and in other communities across the province and less likely to be living Edmonton.
"Among the reluctant UCP group, 68 [per cent] are open to voting UCP and 68 [per cent] are open to voting for the NDP," Coletto, the CEO of Abacus Data, wrote in his analysis of the results.
"That's a high level of overlap demonstrating the potential 'swingness' ... of this segment."
Accessible voter pools
Coletto notes loyal UCP voters like their leader, Danielle Smith, but among the reluctant UCP group, Smith has a "pretty negative" net favourable rating (-59) while Notley has a net positive (+9). A score of zero would mean as many respondents have a positive view of the leader as they would a negative view.
"The upshot: Notley is accepted by the group while Smith is disliked," he said.
Net favourables
One challenge for Smith among the reluctant UCP group, according to Coletto, is the survey's findings that two in three think she would be a worse premier than her predecessor, Jason Kenney, and only seven per cent think she would be better.
Kenney's run as leader of the UCP officially ended in October, when he was replaced by Smith. He announced he would resign his post last May after he secured only 51 per cent support of UCP members in a leadership review.
Smith vs. Kenney as premier
The survey also asked respondents to rate several political leaders on a scale of 0 to 100, where 0 means they really dislike the person and 100 means they really like them.
While Smith scored nearly 76 per cent on the likability scale with loyal UCP voters, she scored around 30 per cent with reluctant UCP voters. By comparison, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau received a 24 per cent score from the reluctant UCP group.
Coletto said Smith needs to change her perception among reluctant UCP voters, in part by focusing on the issues they care about most.
Three top issues
The poll indicates the cost of living is the leading issue for both loyal and reluctant UCP voters surveyed. Among loyal NDP voters, the issue is tied with health care as a leading concern.
"For the UCP to win over the reluctants, they should focus on the economy and taxes while NDP should make it all about health care," Coletto wrote.
Top 5 issues
The survey suggests that among the "reluctant UCP" group, respondents consider United Conservatives to be the most trusted in stopping any future mask or vaccine mandates, protecting the rights of gun owners, managing the economy, keeping taxes as low as possible and making Alberta an attractive place for new business.
But the same group considers the NDP to be the most trusted party in dealing with issues like the cost of living, improving health care, climate change and housing affordability.
Most trusted party on issues among reluctant UCP voters
The Abacus Data survey also asked all respondents what Alberta needs most right now: shake things up or focus on the basics?
Forty-seven per cent of loyal UCP voters surveyed said they want to shake things up, compared with 53 per cent who want Alberta to focus on the basics.
But at least 90 per cent of both reluctant UCP voters and loyal NDP voters want the province to focus on the basics.
One UCP policy that could "shake things up" is Alberta's new Sovereignty Act, which passed earlier this month.
The bill was introduced by Smith as centrepiece legislation to pursue a more confrontational approach with Trudeau's government on a range of issues deemed to be overreach in provincial areas of responsibility.
Twenty-nine per cent of all Albertans surveyed think it's a good idea while 41 per cent think it's a bad idea.
'Winnable' votes
Lori Williams, an associate professor of policy studies at Mount Royal University, said she wasn't surprised that the survey suggests a competitive race between the UCP and the NDP. She said it appears the "reluctant" UCP voters are winnable by either party right now.
"We've got a number of voters that are winnable," Williams said. "They're available, if you like, to be persuaded by either the NDP or the UCP. And the key to that is focusing on what's most important to Albertans and proposing a vision for the future that meets the concerns, the primary concerns, of those voters."
Williams said there's certainly room for both parties to make headway.
"The poll indicates there's an advantage to the NDP at this point in time. But again, we know that there are five months between now and the next election, and there's lots of room for both parties to try to appeal to to those voters that can be persuaded to move one direction or another."
The Abacus Data survey was conducted on an online sample of 1,000 adults living in Alberta. It is taken from an online panel and cannot be considered a true probability sample. However, a comparable margin of error for a sample that size is +/-3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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Saturday, December 17, 2022
Thursday, September 29, 2022
Bell: Danielle Smith, can she beat Rachel Notley? More numbers
Rick Bell - Yesterday
UCP leadership candidate Danielle Smith speaks at a campaign rally in Chestermere on Tuesday, August 9, 2022.© Provided by Calgary Sun
One minute you’re thinking about whether these UCP leadership hopefuls can defeat the NDP and their leader Rachel Notley.
The next minute some numbers appear as if from the political gods.
They’re actually numbers from the well-respected ThinkHQ Public Affairs.
It is a poll of adult Albertans.
Let’s roll. What are individuals asked?
Does the prospect of Brian Jean as UCP leader make you more or less likely to vote for the UCP in the next provincial election?
More likely 21%. Less likely 28%. That’s a minus 7.
What about voting for a Travis Toews-led UCP?
More likely 17%. Less likely 22%. That’s a minus 5.
Now, Danielle Smith.
More likely to vote for the UCP with Smith at the helm 20%. Less likely 39%.
That’s a minus 19.
Now let’s look at different parts of the province, starting with battleground Calgary.
The city of Calgary.
More likely to vote for a Jean-led UCP. 17%. Less likely 33%. Not so good.
In the city of Calgary, more likely to vote for Team Toews, 16%. Less likely 22%.
Smith? You want to know about Smith?
Within the Calgary city limits, 18% are more likely to vote UCP with Smith running the show. Less likely 44%.
Ouch.
Of the three candidates, where does Smith have the highest number of people less likely to vote UCP, compared to more likely to vote UCP with her in charge?
As well as Calgary, there’s the area around Calgary, and in the city of Edmonton, and surrounding the capital, and in small urban areas, and in northern Alberta.
Yes, Smith fares better in rural Alberta, but Jean and Toews are strong there as well.
You want some more, I know you do.
Just one more helping of the political calculus.
For those identifying themselves as supporting the UCP, 35% are more likely to vote for the party in the next election with Smith in the top job and 22% less likely, numbers in the same neighbourhood as Toews and Jean.
As for those supporting the NDP, the intensity against Smith is greatest.
59% are less likely to back the UCP with Smith.
40% are less likely to back the party with a Jean-led UCP and 30% less likely with Toews holding the reins.
Of course, there is a margin of error and this is a snapshot in time, so handle the arithmetic as you see fit.
There is no conspiracy here. The numbers are the numbers.
Remember, this scribbler was the one rolling out the nose counts showing Smith as the frontrunner in the UCP leadership race by a healthy margin.
A little dessert? Who doesn’t like dessert?
Premier Jason Kenney has the approval of 30% of Albertans sampled, with 67% disapproving and few unsure how they feel.
Flameless Heaters - REQUEST A QUOTE Today
Adwww.artictherm.com
Jean has the approval of 33% and the disapproval of 49%. The rest are unsure.
Toews is at 29% approval and 38% disapproval with a full third of those polled unsure about him.
He’s a quiet guy.
Smith?
She has 27% approval and 58% disapproval.
Brian Jean seen as UCP candidate most likely to win next election: poll
Bell: UCP race, more poll numbers, is it all over but the shouting?
Bell: Kenney unpopular to the end, a lesson for Pierre Poilievre
Now let’s bring in Marc Henry from ThinkHQ.
If the polling of UCP members is on the money and Smith wins the party leadership Oct. 6 to become premier, Henry says the following.
“There may be some real unintended consequences.
“She’s extremely divisive. She definitely has her supporters, her strong supporters. But she’s got more detractors and they’re strong detractors.”
And …
“She will absolutely invigorate NDP turnout. They’re more motivated against Smith than the others. Danielle Smith is a lightning rod for that vote. She becomes a rallying cry.”
The pollster finally points to those unsure of who they will vote for in the next provincial election.
With these folks, 16% are more likely to vote for a Toews UCP, 19% less likely.
If Jean is UCP leader it’s 18% more likely to vote UCP, 29% less likely.
With Smith as UCP leader, 10% are more likely to vote for the party and 39% are less likely.
We are told these are individuals who probably voted UCP in the last election and are sitting out there waiting to see what unfolds.
And to end this day …
The UCP without a leader and it’s a coin toss with the NDP, says the poll. The governing party is very much in the running.
With a leader?
“With Jean or Toews, you know, they have some work to do but certainly that base is there,” says Henry, the noted nose counter.
“With Smith, they are going to be facing a headwind.”
Knowing some of the Smith team now on board, if their candidate becomes premier, they will be pulling out all the stops to win the next election.
It promises to be a fight for the ages.
Meanwhile in Medicine Hat, with this race to be premier headed for the last lap on the track, Notley the NDP leader talks to families who do not have a family doctor.
rbell@postmedia.com
Rick Bell - Yesterday
UCP leadership candidate Danielle Smith speaks at a campaign rally in Chestermere on Tuesday, August 9, 2022.© Provided by Calgary Sun
One minute you’re thinking about whether these UCP leadership hopefuls can defeat the NDP and their leader Rachel Notley.
The next minute some numbers appear as if from the political gods.
They’re actually numbers from the well-respected ThinkHQ Public Affairs.
It is a poll of adult Albertans.
Let’s roll. What are individuals asked?
Does the prospect of Brian Jean as UCP leader make you more or less likely to vote for the UCP in the next provincial election?
More likely 21%. Less likely 28%. That’s a minus 7.
What about voting for a Travis Toews-led UCP?
More likely 17%. Less likely 22%. That’s a minus 5.
Now, Danielle Smith.
More likely to vote for the UCP with Smith at the helm 20%. Less likely 39%.
That’s a minus 19.
Now let’s look at different parts of the province, starting with battleground Calgary.
The city of Calgary.
More likely to vote for a Jean-led UCP. 17%. Less likely 33%. Not so good.
In the city of Calgary, more likely to vote for Team Toews, 16%. Less likely 22%.
Smith? You want to know about Smith?
Within the Calgary city limits, 18% are more likely to vote UCP with Smith running the show. Less likely 44%.
Ouch.
Of the three candidates, where does Smith have the highest number of people less likely to vote UCP, compared to more likely to vote UCP with her in charge?
As well as Calgary, there’s the area around Calgary, and in the city of Edmonton, and surrounding the capital, and in small urban areas, and in northern Alberta.
Yes, Smith fares better in rural Alberta, but Jean and Toews are strong there as well.
You want some more, I know you do.
Related video: UCP leadership candidate Danielle Smith outlines her proposed Alberta Sovereignty Act
Duration 5:51 View on Watch
Just one more helping of the political calculus.
For those identifying themselves as supporting the UCP, 35% are more likely to vote for the party in the next election with Smith in the top job and 22% less likely, numbers in the same neighbourhood as Toews and Jean.
As for those supporting the NDP, the intensity against Smith is greatest.
59% are less likely to back the UCP with Smith.
40% are less likely to back the party with a Jean-led UCP and 30% less likely with Toews holding the reins.
Of course, there is a margin of error and this is a snapshot in time, so handle the arithmetic as you see fit.
There is no conspiracy here. The numbers are the numbers.
Remember, this scribbler was the one rolling out the nose counts showing Smith as the frontrunner in the UCP leadership race by a healthy margin.
A little dessert? Who doesn’t like dessert?
Premier Jason Kenney has the approval of 30% of Albertans sampled, with 67% disapproving and few unsure how they feel.
Flameless Heaters - REQUEST A QUOTE Today
Adwww.artictherm.com
Jean has the approval of 33% and the disapproval of 49%. The rest are unsure.
Toews is at 29% approval and 38% disapproval with a full third of those polled unsure about him.
He’s a quiet guy.
Smith?
She has 27% approval and 58% disapproval.
Brian Jean seen as UCP candidate most likely to win next election: poll
Bell: UCP race, more poll numbers, is it all over but the shouting?
Bell: Kenney unpopular to the end, a lesson for Pierre Poilievre
Now let’s bring in Marc Henry from ThinkHQ.
If the polling of UCP members is on the money and Smith wins the party leadership Oct. 6 to become premier, Henry says the following.
“There may be some real unintended consequences.
“She’s extremely divisive. She definitely has her supporters, her strong supporters. But she’s got more detractors and they’re strong detractors.”
And …
“She will absolutely invigorate NDP turnout. They’re more motivated against Smith than the others. Danielle Smith is a lightning rod for that vote. She becomes a rallying cry.”
The pollster finally points to those unsure of who they will vote for in the next provincial election.
With these folks, 16% are more likely to vote for a Toews UCP, 19% less likely.
If Jean is UCP leader it’s 18% more likely to vote UCP, 29% less likely.
With Smith as UCP leader, 10% are more likely to vote for the party and 39% are less likely.
We are told these are individuals who probably voted UCP in the last election and are sitting out there waiting to see what unfolds.
And to end this day …
The UCP without a leader and it’s a coin toss with the NDP, says the poll. The governing party is very much in the running.
With a leader?
“With Jean or Toews, you know, they have some work to do but certainly that base is there,” says Henry, the noted nose counter.
“With Smith, they are going to be facing a headwind.”
Knowing some of the Smith team now on board, if their candidate becomes premier, they will be pulling out all the stops to win the next election.
It promises to be a fight for the ages.
Meanwhile in Medicine Hat, with this race to be premier headed for the last lap on the track, Notley the NDP leader talks to families who do not have a family doctor.
rbell@postmedia.com
Sunday, September 11, 2022
UCP leads NDP, Brian Jean preferred by party supporters as conservative leader: poll
The UCP's fortunes have been buoyed by a slew of good news, from the perception of a receding pandemic to a $13.2-billion surplus
Author of the article: Bill Kaufmann
The online Leger poll of 1,006 conducted Sept. 1-5 shows the UCP under outgoing premier Jason Kenney would capture 44 per cent of total committed voters versus 41 per cent for the Opposition NDP, according to the poll.
That dovetails with other polls in recent months showing rising support for the UCP.
It also shows UCP backbencher Jean, who’s vying for the party’s leadership against six rivals, would narrowly top that field among the party’s supporters and edges out Danielle Smith, former Wildrose Party leader and presumptive front-runner, as most capable of going on to win the 2023 general election.
The UCP’s fortunes have been buoyed by good news, from the perception of a receding pandemic to an economic resurgence capped by the announcement of a $13.2-billion government surplus driven by ballooning energy revenues, said Leger executive vice-president Ian Large.
“It’s been a steady uptick for the UCP. We saw a big jump first in March, then in July,” he said.
“This trend is clearly heading in the right direction for the UCP … . People don’t like change when things are going well.”
The poll shows a continuation of NDP strength in Edmonton, with the party capturing 52 per cent of the vote versus 33 per cent for the UCP.
But in Calgary, the governing party leads the NDP by 44 per cent to 38 per cent. The UCP leads in the rest of the province 53 per cent to 32 per cent for the NDP.
Large said while the momentum has been on the UCP’s side, that could change dramatically depending on the fallout from the party’s leadership race, with a winner to be revealed Oct. 6.
Divisions within the party, a potentially unpopular leadership choice and policies like candidate Smith’s Alberta Sovereignty Act could swing public opinion at a crucial time, he said.
“If the leadership race produces anything controversial, that’s going to affect the support the UCP’s got,” said Large.
Mount Royal University political science professor Duane Bratt agrees. Next spring’s election will once again hinge on Calgary, where a Smith premiership would prove problematic for the UCP, he said.
“What the poll does show is a generic conservative would do quite well, but once you put a name to that it gets harder,” he said.
“Smith would be toxic in Calgary and the NDP would pick up a lot of seats.”
When asked about the poll’s significance on Thursday, UCP leadership hopeful Travis Toews said it shores up a trend in public opinion but that adopting rival Smith’s proposed Alberta Sovereignty Act puts that position in jeopardy.
“I have a deep concern about that because I believe the Conservative party holds by far and away the best solutions for the province going forward,” he said.
“Don’t take that for granted — we have to work hard, we have to be Albertans’ best choice … but we can’t take policy positions that ultimately undermine our economic and fiscal and political strength, positions that simply won’t be acceptable to the majority of Albertans.”
The Alberta Sovereignty Act would enable Alberta to ignore federal laws deemed to be against the province’s interests.
The UCP's fortunes have been buoyed by a slew of good news, from the perception of a receding pandemic to a $13.2-billion surplus
Author of the article: Bill Kaufmann
Calgary Herald
Publishing date: Sep 09, 2022 •
Publishing date: Sep 09, 2022 •
Brian Jean speaks to the media after being sworn in as an MLA on April 7, 2022, at the Alberta legislature in Edmonton.
PHOTO BY ED KAISER /Postmedia file
If a provincial election were held today, the UCP would narrowly defeat the NDP, according to a new poll.
And the survey suggests that among the ruling party’s supporters, though not necessarily card-carrying members, Brian Jean would win the UCP leadership race and is considered most likely to defeat Rachel Notley’s NDP next spring.
If a provincial election were held today, the UCP would narrowly defeat the NDP, according to a new poll.
And the survey suggests that among the ruling party’s supporters, though not necessarily card-carrying members, Brian Jean would win the UCP leadership race and is considered most likely to defeat Rachel Notley’s NDP next spring.
The online Leger poll of 1,006 conducted Sept. 1-5 shows the UCP under outgoing premier Jason Kenney would capture 44 per cent of total committed voters versus 41 per cent for the Opposition NDP, according to the poll.
That dovetails with other polls in recent months showing rising support for the UCP.
It also shows UCP backbencher Jean, who’s vying for the party’s leadership against six rivals, would narrowly top that field among the party’s supporters and edges out Danielle Smith, former Wildrose Party leader and presumptive front-runner, as most capable of going on to win the 2023 general election.
The UCP’s fortunes have been buoyed by good news, from the perception of a receding pandemic to an economic resurgence capped by the announcement of a $13.2-billion government surplus driven by ballooning energy revenues, said Leger executive vice-president Ian Large.
RECOMMENDED FROM EDITORIAL
“It’s been a steady uptick for the UCP. We saw a big jump first in March, then in July,” he said.
“This trend is clearly heading in the right direction for the UCP … . People don’t like change when things are going well.”
The poll shows a continuation of NDP strength in Edmonton, with the party capturing 52 per cent of the vote versus 33 per cent for the UCP.
But in Calgary, the governing party leads the NDP by 44 per cent to 38 per cent. The UCP leads in the rest of the province 53 per cent to 32 per cent for the NDP.
Large said while the momentum has been on the UCP’s side, that could change dramatically depending on the fallout from the party’s leadership race, with a winner to be revealed Oct. 6.
Divisions within the party, a potentially unpopular leadership choice and policies like candidate Smith’s Alberta Sovereignty Act could swing public opinion at a crucial time, he said.
“If the leadership race produces anything controversial, that’s going to affect the support the UCP’s got,” said Large.
Mount Royal University political science professor Duane Bratt agrees. Next spring’s election will once again hinge on Calgary, where a Smith premiership would prove problematic for the UCP, he said.
“What the poll does show is a generic conservative would do quite well, but once you put a name to that it gets harder,” he said.
“Smith would be toxic in Calgary and the NDP would pick up a lot of seats.”
When asked about the poll’s significance on Thursday, UCP leadership hopeful Travis Toews said it shores up a trend in public opinion but that adopting rival Smith’s proposed Alberta Sovereignty Act puts that position in jeopardy.
“I have a deep concern about that because I believe the Conservative party holds by far and away the best solutions for the province going forward,” he said.
“Don’t take that for granted — we have to work hard, we have to be Albertans’ best choice … but we can’t take policy positions that ultimately undermine our economic and fiscal and political strength, positions that simply won’t be acceptable to the majority of Albertans.”
The Alberta Sovereignty Act would enable Alberta to ignore federal laws deemed to be against the province’s interests.
UCP leadership candidates (left to right) Leela Aheer,
Brian Jean, Rajan Sawhney and Travis Toews at yesterday’s press conference.
Jim Wells/Postmedia
On Thursday, UCP leadership rivals Toews, Jean, Leela Aheer and Rajan Sawhney gathered in Calgary to denounce the act as ineffective and a threat to the party’s unity and electoral fortunes.
The UCP government could face another minefield if Smith wins the leadership and pushes the Sovereignty Act, said Bratt.
“What if Smith is defeated (in the legislature) on the Sovereignty Act and we go to the polls early?” he said. “I don’t know how she can backtrack from (the act).”
The poll shows Jean would narrowly lead the UCP leadership vote across multiple ballots and 18 per cent — a slim plurality — believe he’d be best positioned to defeat the NDP, just ahead of Smith at 15 per cent.
Large emphasized those polled are UCP supporters and not necessarily party members eligible to cast leadership ballots.
But he said the result could be an indication presumptive front-runner Smith faces “a much tighter race than people are expecting.”
Bratt said the poll’s take on the leadership race is skewed away from where most of the party’s voting members reside, in the rural areas, and thus isn’t reliable.
But it does indicate Jean’s strength among party supporters beyond that smaller base, he added.
Bratt expects Smith to top the first ballot, but after that, it’s a toss-up, “because her growth ability after that is quite small.
“Where do Jean supporters go (on subsequent ballots) — to Toews or Smith? We simply don’t know.”
As a non-random online survey, a margin of error wasn’t reported but if the poll had used random sampling, its margin of error would have been plus or minus 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20, says Leger.
BKaufmann@postmedia.com
Twitter: @BillKaufmannjrn
On Thursday, UCP leadership rivals Toews, Jean, Leela Aheer and Rajan Sawhney gathered in Calgary to denounce the act as ineffective and a threat to the party’s unity and electoral fortunes.
The UCP government could face another minefield if Smith wins the leadership and pushes the Sovereignty Act, said Bratt.
“What if Smith is defeated (in the legislature) on the Sovereignty Act and we go to the polls early?” he said. “I don’t know how she can backtrack from (the act).”
The poll shows Jean would narrowly lead the UCP leadership vote across multiple ballots and 18 per cent — a slim plurality — believe he’d be best positioned to defeat the NDP, just ahead of Smith at 15 per cent.
Large emphasized those polled are UCP supporters and not necessarily party members eligible to cast leadership ballots.
But he said the result could be an indication presumptive front-runner Smith faces “a much tighter race than people are expecting.”
Bratt said the poll’s take on the leadership race is skewed away from where most of the party’s voting members reside, in the rural areas, and thus isn’t reliable.
But it does indicate Jean’s strength among party supporters beyond that smaller base, he added.
Bratt expects Smith to top the first ballot, but after that, it’s a toss-up, “because her growth ability after that is quite small.
“Where do Jean supporters go (on subsequent ballots) — to Toews or Smith? We simply don’t know.”
As a non-random online survey, a margin of error wasn’t reported but if the poll had used random sampling, its margin of error would have been plus or minus 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20, says Leger.
BKaufmann@postmedia.com
Twitter: @BillKaufmannjrn
Sunday, March 14, 2021
A ONE TERM PREMIER
POLLING 338Canada:
Philippe J. Fournier
POLLING 338Canada:
A major warning sign for Jason Kenney’s UCP
Philippe J. Fournier
3/14/2021
Since the Wildrose and PC merger back in 2017, the Alberta NDP didn’t lead in any voting intention polls in the province until late fall of 2020.
Since the Wildrose and PC merger back in 2017, the Alberta NDP didn’t lead in any voting intention polls in the province until late fall of 2020.
While several polls throughout 2020 clearly indicated that many Albertans were less than enthused with Jason Kenney’s handling of the pandemic, the United Conservative Party (UCP) was still consistently polling either in first place or tied with the NDP, until a poll from Research Co. measured the NDP with a narrow 3-point lead in December.
Eyebrows were raised, but surely the new year would bring a return to normal?
© Used with permission of / © St. Joseph Communications.
Kenney holds a COVID-19 briefing in Edmonton on March 20, 2020 (CP/Jason Franson)
In January, Mainstreet Research released its own numbers in the Western Standard which gave the NDP a stunning 17-point lead over the UCP, and a renewed Wildrose Party (now a pro-independence party), rising on the UCP’s right flank. However, it was argued that Mainstreet’s poll had coincided with the several media stories of UCP MLAs and staff who had travelled to sunny destinations during the Holiday break. Perhaps those numbers only reflected a knee-jerk, temporary anti-UCP sentiment that would subside in the following weeks?
Lo and behold: Two additional Alberta polls were released this week from the Angus Reid Institute and Léger, and, although both polls showed radically different numbers, they both confirm the UCP has been bleeding support since the end of 2020:
CLICK ON INFOGRAPICS TO ENLARGE
In January, Mainstreet Research released its own numbers in the Western Standard which gave the NDP a stunning 17-point lead over the UCP, and a renewed Wildrose Party (now a pro-independence party), rising on the UCP’s right flank. However, it was argued that Mainstreet’s poll had coincided with the several media stories of UCP MLAs and staff who had travelled to sunny destinations during the Holiday break. Perhaps those numbers only reflected a knee-jerk, temporary anti-UCP sentiment that would subside in the following weeks?
Lo and behold: Two additional Alberta polls were released this week from the Angus Reid Institute and Léger, and, although both polls showed radically different numbers, they both confirm the UCP has been bleeding support since the end of 2020:
CLICK ON INFOGRAPICS TO ENLARGE
© Provided by Maclean's
First: The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) measured the NDP at 41 per cent province-wide, three points ahead of the UCP. Considering the size of the poll’s sample, this result should be read as a statistical tie between the two parties. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that this represents a 7-point swing in favour of the NDP compared to ARI’s previous Alberta poll in November. The poll’s regional subsamples indicates the NDP is leading in both Calgary and Edmonton, but trailing the UCP in the regions of Alberta. Of note: ARI measures a significant gender gap (which we have observed in previous Alberta polls): Among male voters, the UCP leads 42 to 36 per cent; among women voters, the NDP holds a 12-point lead (46 to 34 per cent).
Second: Léger, one of the top-rated pollsters in the country, released a real head-scratcher for Postmedia this weekend. According to this new poll, the NDP pulls ahead with 51 per cent of voting intentions in the province, a crushing 21-point margin over the UCP among decided and leaning voters. The NDP leads by 40 points in Edmonton, 16 points in Calgary, and, more shockingly, 9 points in the regions of Alberta. Rachel Notley’s NDP is also in first among all age groups—including a 32-point lead among the 18 to 34 year-old demographic. The poll shows no significant gender gap however: the NDP is ahead by 19 points with men and by 23 points among women.
What to make of these diverging numbers? Canadian pollsters as a general rule have had a rough time in recent Alberta elections. In the 2019 provincial Alberta election, Léger underestimated the UCP by five points, and Angus Reid overestimated the NDP by 6 points. Months later in the federal election, although polling firms scored generally well in their national numbers, polls underestimated the federal Conservatives in Alberta by an average of 10 points. Naturally, two occurrences don’t make a rule, but it does at least make us weary that polls may once again be underestimating the right-wing vote in the province.
First: The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) measured the NDP at 41 per cent province-wide, three points ahead of the UCP. Considering the size of the poll’s sample, this result should be read as a statistical tie between the two parties. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that this represents a 7-point swing in favour of the NDP compared to ARI’s previous Alberta poll in November. The poll’s regional subsamples indicates the NDP is leading in both Calgary and Edmonton, but trailing the UCP in the regions of Alberta. Of note: ARI measures a significant gender gap (which we have observed in previous Alberta polls): Among male voters, the UCP leads 42 to 36 per cent; among women voters, the NDP holds a 12-point lead (46 to 34 per cent).
Second: Léger, one of the top-rated pollsters in the country, released a real head-scratcher for Postmedia this weekend. According to this new poll, the NDP pulls ahead with 51 per cent of voting intentions in the province, a crushing 21-point margin over the UCP among decided and leaning voters. The NDP leads by 40 points in Edmonton, 16 points in Calgary, and, more shockingly, 9 points in the regions of Alberta. Rachel Notley’s NDP is also in first among all age groups—including a 32-point lead among the 18 to 34 year-old demographic. The poll shows no significant gender gap however: the NDP is ahead by 19 points with men and by 23 points among women.
What to make of these diverging numbers? Canadian pollsters as a general rule have had a rough time in recent Alberta elections. In the 2019 provincial Alberta election, Léger underestimated the UCP by five points, and Angus Reid overestimated the NDP by 6 points. Months later in the federal election, although polling firms scored generally well in their national numbers, polls underestimated the federal Conservatives in Alberta by an average of 10 points. Naturally, two occurrences don’t make a rule, but it does at least make us weary that polls may once again be underestimating the right-wing vote in the province.
© Provided by Maclean's
We add these newest polls in the 338Canada Alberta model and present today this updated Alberta projection. A word of warning before going further however: Readers will notice a high degree of uncertainty in these projections. These large confidence intervals are not a bug, but a feature, caused by the significant spread in the latest polls. When data is uncertain, projections are bound to be uncertain as well.
If an election were held in Alberta this week, the NDP and UCP would be projected in a dead heat that could be decided by no more than a handful of districts. The NDP wins an average of 45 seats, including near-sweeps of Edmonton and Calgary. As for the UCP, although it is projected ahead in 45 electoral districts, the fact that it is favoured in all eight “toss up” districts brings the party’s average to 42 seats. The threshold for a majority at the Legislative Assembly of Alberta is 44 seats:
We add these newest polls in the 338Canada Alberta model and present today this updated Alberta projection. A word of warning before going further however: Readers will notice a high degree of uncertainty in these projections. These large confidence intervals are not a bug, but a feature, caused by the significant spread in the latest polls. When data is uncertain, projections are bound to be uncertain as well.
If an election were held in Alberta this week, the NDP and UCP would be projected in a dead heat that could be decided by no more than a handful of districts. The NDP wins an average of 45 seats, including near-sweeps of Edmonton and Calgary. As for the UCP, although it is projected ahead in 45 electoral districts, the fact that it is favoured in all eight “toss up” districts brings the party’s average to 42 seats. The threshold for a majority at the Legislative Assembly of Alberta is 44 seats:
© Provided by Maclean's
As you may notice on the graph below, both probability density curves overlap almost perfectly. The seat projection confidence intervals range roughly from the mid-30s to the mid-50s for both parties:
As you may notice on the graph below, both probability density curves overlap almost perfectly. The seat projection confidence intervals range roughly from the mid-30s to the mid-50s for both parties:
© Provided by Maclean's
The NDP wins 55 per cent of all 100,000 simulations performed by the 338Canada model, odds barely better than a coin flip. In a hypothetical scenario where numbers such as these are the last ones available before voting day, there would be no clear-cut favourite. The projection would simply be too close to call:
The NDP wins 55 per cent of all 100,000 simulations performed by the 338Canada model, odds barely better than a coin flip. In a hypothetical scenario where numbers such as these are the last ones available before voting day, there would be no clear-cut favourite. The projection would simply be too close to call:
© Provided by Maclean's
Naturally, more polling would be necessary to have a clearer picture of the landscape as the UCP is nearing the mid-point of its mandate. Despite these poor results for the UCP, there are nevertheless some silver linings for Jason Kenney in these numbers.
First, poll after poll in the past six months, Kenney has been among the most poorly rated premier in Canada on his handling of the pandemic (Angus Reid’s had his approval rating at 39 per cent, and Léger at 40 per cent), yet his party is still projected in a dead heat with the NDP. The election is still two years away, so there is, theoretically, plenty of time for the UCP to rebound.
Second, the UCP still enjoys a mathematical seat advantage over the NDP. The projection shows the UCP could potentially lose the popular vote in a general election by as much 3 or 4 points behind the NDP, and still win the most seats. The fact that the NDP runs up the score with urban voters skews the projection in favour of the UCP—in ways similar to the federal Conservatives running up the score in Alberta and Saskatchewan in 2019, only to come up well short in the seat count despite winning the popular vote over the federal Liberals.
Additionally, the Léger poll also measured a high level of undecided and discreet voters (27 per cent). Could conservative voters in Alberta currently unsatisfied with the UCP and Jason Kenney decide to “park” their theoretical vote with undecideds, but still come back into the UCP fold come next election? It certainly is a plausible hypothesis.
Still, this should be a major warning sign to the UCP. Complacency was among the many factors that sank the Progressive Conservatives in the 2015 election, which resulted with a near-perfect split of the right-of-centre vote between the PC and former Wildrose, and allowing the NDP to sneak through both of them. Disgruntled voters tend to vote in lesser droves than motivated ones, and clearly the NDP base appears motivated to regain power in Edmonton in two years—something no political party in Alberta has ever done.
Follow 338Canada on Twitter
* * *
For details on this Alberta projection, visit the 338Canada Alberta page. Find your home riding in this list or use the regional links below:
Calgary
Edmonton
Northern Alberta
Central Alberta
Southern Alberta
Naturally, more polling would be necessary to have a clearer picture of the landscape as the UCP is nearing the mid-point of its mandate. Despite these poor results for the UCP, there are nevertheless some silver linings for Jason Kenney in these numbers.
First, poll after poll in the past six months, Kenney has been among the most poorly rated premier in Canada on his handling of the pandemic (Angus Reid’s had his approval rating at 39 per cent, and Léger at 40 per cent), yet his party is still projected in a dead heat with the NDP. The election is still two years away, so there is, theoretically, plenty of time for the UCP to rebound.
Second, the UCP still enjoys a mathematical seat advantage over the NDP. The projection shows the UCP could potentially lose the popular vote in a general election by as much 3 or 4 points behind the NDP, and still win the most seats. The fact that the NDP runs up the score with urban voters skews the projection in favour of the UCP—in ways similar to the federal Conservatives running up the score in Alberta and Saskatchewan in 2019, only to come up well short in the seat count despite winning the popular vote over the federal Liberals.
Additionally, the Léger poll also measured a high level of undecided and discreet voters (27 per cent). Could conservative voters in Alberta currently unsatisfied with the UCP and Jason Kenney decide to “park” their theoretical vote with undecideds, but still come back into the UCP fold come next election? It certainly is a plausible hypothesis.
Still, this should be a major warning sign to the UCP. Complacency was among the many factors that sank the Progressive Conservatives in the 2015 election, which resulted with a near-perfect split of the right-of-centre vote between the PC and former Wildrose, and allowing the NDP to sneak through both of them. Disgruntled voters tend to vote in lesser droves than motivated ones, and clearly the NDP base appears motivated to regain power in Edmonton in two years—something no political party in Alberta has ever done.
Follow 338Canada on Twitter
* * *
For details on this Alberta projection, visit the 338Canada Alberta page. Find your home riding in this list or use the regional links below:
Calgary
Edmonton
Northern Alberta
Central Alberta
Southern Alberta
Friday, May 20, 2022
ALBERTA DEJA VU
Ex-Wildrose leader Danielle Smith reannounces UCP leadership bid as next step in Alberta politics
Paula Tran - Yesterday
The Canadian Press
Former Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith reannounced that she will run in the upcoming United Conservative Party leadership race on Thursday.
She thanked Kenney for the work he has done for Alberta's energy industry and added she wouldn't mind seeing Kenney stay on as premier until a new leader has been elected.
Read more:
UCP begins search for new leader with Jason Kenney stepping down
"I want to start off by thanking Premier Jason Kenney for all the work that he's done over the last number of years.
"I've decided to jump back into politics, seeking the leadership of the UCP. That is just a continuation of my last political life," Smith said.
Video: Jason Kenney announces intention to step down as UCP leader
Smith spared no time getting into her platform, saying she will fix and restore faith in Alberta politics. She also said she will attempt to unite the UCP and pointed to the large number of people who registered to vote in Kenney's leadership review.
"If you look at what happened during the UCP leadership contest, there were a lot of people who got brought into the UCP who had never been in politics before and I think that's what has occurred," Smith said.
"I think there has been a lot of division that has happened between friends and family, and we need to stop dividing people along identity lines... We are stronger united and that holds for our conservative movement as well."
Kenney’s plan to step down as UCP leader shows how hard merging 2 parties is: political commentator
Smith also said she wants to see more people run in the leadership race and noted she respects the role of individual MLAs in Alberta politics.
"I would love to see Todd Lowen and Drew Barnes throw their name in the race for UCP leadership. We need to start unifying the movement again and that's going to require all hands on deck over the next couple of years," Smith said.
Video: UCP caucus meeting to discuss future after Jason Kenney announces plan to step down
But Smith also spent time talking about her own credentials, saying she has a lot of experience as the former party leader for the Wildrose Party, which merged with the UCP in 2017.
She also talked about her time as a former radio host on 770 CHQR as proof she can "take the heat" in Alberta politics.
ON HER FIRST CAMPAIGN THE WHEELS LITERALLY CAME OFF HER BUS
Read more:
Ex-Wildrose leader Danielle Smith returns to Alberta politics, will vote against Kenney leadership
"I'm not going to enter a contest thinking I'm going to come in second place... This is a real opportunity for the UCP to make sure that we're selling memberships, that we're getting people excited again.
"I can handle the heat. I have handled it for a lot of years, and that's the way I conducted myself on the radio," Smith said.
Hopefuls for UCP leadership jockey for position, disagree over interim head
Jean, 59, easily won the Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche byelection in March on a platform of ousting Kenney as party leader.
Prior to that, he’d been an MP in the Stephen Harper federal Conservative government and led the Wildrose party after Smith’s departure from 2015 to 2017, until its merger with the PCs.
He was MLA for Fort McMurray-Conklin from 2015 to 2018, leaving after he lost the party leadership to Kenney in a race tarnished by the so-called “kamikaze campaign” that remains under RCMP investigation.
Calgary-Klein MLA Jeremy told reporters Thursday he’s not ruling out a run for his party’s leadership.
“I haven’t made that decision at this time – I have a lot to add to the conversation whether thats’s running myself or getting behind somebody,” said Nixon.
“I wouldn’t rule myself out of anything at this time.”
Jean and Smith represent the right wing of the UCP, but current cabinet ministers further to the centre, including Jobs, Economy and Innovation Minister Doug Schweitzer and Finance Minister Travis Toews, would be credible candidates, said Mount Royal University political science professor Lori Williams.
But Williams said that leadership choice might not come down to a left-right split given what ousted Kenney.
“It had a lot more to do with his leadership choices, his flip-flopping and inability to operate to what Albertans wanted,” she said.
“He didn’t seem to hear or understand that.”
FILE PHOTO: Doug Schweitzer and Travis Toews attend the rural crime town hall at the Hampton Inn in Grande Prairie, Alta. on Thursday, Sept. 12, 2019.
But because of his divisive influence, the sooner Kenney leaves the party’s top position the better, with a change in leadership automatically making an NDP election win next year harder to achieve, said Williams.
“There’s no question (the NDP) would prefer Jason Kenney staying on and the party remaining split,” she said.
Another name that’s arisen as a UCP leadership possibility is Calgary Nose Hill Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner.
She didn’t answer when asked Thursday if she’s considering entering the race, but in a statement called for unity and for her provincial cousins to strive for equality of opportunity as she does in Parliament.
“I know my conservative colleagues in the Alberta legislature will continue to do the same,” said Rempel Garner.
Former federal cabinet minister Rona Ambrose, who’s seen by some as a natural successor to Kenney, has said she doesn’t want the job.
Cypress Hills-Medicine Hat MLA Drew Barnes, who was booted from the UCP over his opposition to Kenney’s leadership, also gave no intention of challenging for the leadership but said he was ready to return to the party.
Meanwhile, Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley said uncertainty in the UCP’s leadership will continue to ensure the government’s dysfunction.
“The drama and infighting plaguing the UCP is not over,” she said, while surrounded by NDP candidates and MLAs.
And she said no matter who the UCP chooses as the next leader, they’re still headed for a tough reckoning with voters a year from now.
“What we’re hearing on the doorsteps is people don’t trust the UCP and it doesn’t matter who ultimately leads the UCP,” said Notley.
— With files from Dylan Short
BKaufmann@postmedia.com
Ex-Wildrose leader Danielle Smith reannounces UCP leadership bid as next step in Alberta politics
Paula Tran - Yesterday
The Canadian Press
Former Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith reannounced that she will run in the upcoming United Conservative Party leadership race on Thursday.
She thanked Kenney for the work he has done for Alberta's energy industry and added she wouldn't mind seeing Kenney stay on as premier until a new leader has been elected.
Read more:
UCP begins search for new leader with Jason Kenney stepping down
"I want to start off by thanking Premier Jason Kenney for all the work that he's done over the last number of years.
"I've decided to jump back into politics, seeking the leadership of the UCP. That is just a continuation of my last political life," Smith said.
Video: Jason Kenney announces intention to step down as UCP leader
Smith spared no time getting into her platform, saying she will fix and restore faith in Alberta politics. She also said she will attempt to unite the UCP and pointed to the large number of people who registered to vote in Kenney's leadership review.
"If you look at what happened during the UCP leadership contest, there were a lot of people who got brought into the UCP who had never been in politics before and I think that's what has occurred," Smith said.
"I think there has been a lot of division that has happened between friends and family, and we need to stop dividing people along identity lines... We are stronger united and that holds for our conservative movement as well."
Kenney’s plan to step down as UCP leader shows how hard merging 2 parties is: political commentator
Smith also said she wants to see more people run in the leadership race and noted she respects the role of individual MLAs in Alberta politics.
"I would love to see Todd Lowen and Drew Barnes throw their name in the race for UCP leadership. We need to start unifying the movement again and that's going to require all hands on deck over the next couple of years," Smith said.
Video: UCP caucus meeting to discuss future after Jason Kenney announces plan to step down
But Smith also spent time talking about her own credentials, saying she has a lot of experience as the former party leader for the Wildrose Party, which merged with the UCP in 2017.
She also talked about her time as a former radio host on 770 CHQR as proof she can "take the heat" in Alberta politics.
ON HER FIRST CAMPAIGN THE WHEELS LITERALLY CAME OFF HER BUS
Read more:
Ex-Wildrose leader Danielle Smith returns to Alberta politics, will vote against Kenney leadership
"I'm not going to enter a contest thinking I'm going to come in second place... This is a real opportunity for the UCP to make sure that we're selling memberships, that we're getting people excited again.
"I can handle the heat. I have handled it for a lot of years, and that's the way I conducted myself on the radio," Smith said.
Bill Kaufmann - Yesterday 9:15 p.m.
Calgary Herald
© Gavin Young
Calgary Herald
© Gavin Young
Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche MLA Brian Jean speaks with media at McDougall Centre in Calgary before a UCP caucus meeting on Thursday, May 19, 2022. The UCP were meeting following Premier Jason Kenney's announcement Wednesday night that he will be resigning as leader.
Less than a day after Premier Jason Kenney announced he would step down, two candidates intending to replace him are already disagreeing on how the governing UCP should move forward.
Former Wildrose party leaders Brian Jean and Danielle Smith are the only ones to state their intentions to seek the UCP’s top job so far, after Kenney told supporters Wednesday he’ll resign after capturing just 51.4 per cent of the vote in a leadership review.
On Thursday, Jean was adamant the only way for the party to move forward is to immediately jettison Kenney from the top spot and elect an interim leader.
“The leadership process can’t start until Kenney leaves — he knows that, we know that,” said Jean as headed into a UCP caucus meeting at Calgary’s McDougall Centre.
“We need to renew it and excite Albertans about the future of the party.”
In an online news conference, Smith said she wouldn’t object to Kenney staying on as premier until September — when she expects a leadership vote to be held — partly so he can host the Alberta visit of Pope Francis in July.
“The premier did a lot of work in getting reconciliation and an apology from the Vatican and the Pope . . . if he wants to stay as premier and stay for the honour he deserves, I wouldn’t object to that,” he said.
“I would defer to caucus in making that judgment.”
Later on Thursday, party officials announced Kenney would remain at the helm until a replacement was elected on a yet-to-be-determined date.
Smith said she’s learned from the past, which included what she called the “mistake” of crossing the floor as leader of the Wildrose to join with then-premier Jim Prentice’s ruling Progressive Conservatives in late 2014.
“It’s not what Albertans wanted me to do, they wanted me to continue holding (Prentice) to account. I didn’t, it was a big mistake on my part and we were both judged very harshly for that,” she said, adding she’s committed to party unity.
“Albertans recognize that with the NDP polling at 44 per cent, that if we split this movement we won’t be successful at forming the next government.”
Danielle Smith, former leader of the Wildrose Party and talk show host, is running for the United Conservative Party of Alberta in the 2023 General Election.
Part of the healing and uniting process, said Smith, would be officially apologizing to all those charged or arrested for violating COVID-19 public health restrictions in the past two years and exploring how such enforcement could be avoided in the future.
Jean has said he opposes COVID-19 vaccine mandates and expanding an immunization passport program imposed last fall.
On April 1, Smith, 51, announced she’d seek the UCP nomination in the Livingstone-Macleod riding currently held by MLA Roger Reid but also made it clear she was ready to run for the party’s leadership .
She led Wildrose beginning in October 2009 and positioned the party to defeat Allison Redford’s Progressive Conservatives in the 2012 provincial election.
But issues over perceived extremism in the Wildrose ranks and her refusal to exert discipline torpedoed those electoral hopes.
In a surprise move, she crossed the floor to join Premier Jim Prentice’s Progressive Conservatives in December 2014.
That was seen by many on the political right as a betrayal and she failed to win the PC nomination in the Highwood riding the following year.
Smith worked as a radio host for six years until stepping down in January 2021, citing an increasing hostility toward free speech .
She insisted that doesn’t mean she’s too thin-skinned for a return to politics.
“I can handle the heat, I’ve handled heat for a lot of years — what I can’t handle is cancel culture and that’s what we’ve really got to push back against,” said Smith.
Less than a day after Premier Jason Kenney announced he would step down, two candidates intending to replace him are already disagreeing on how the governing UCP should move forward.
Former Wildrose party leaders Brian Jean and Danielle Smith are the only ones to state their intentions to seek the UCP’s top job so far, after Kenney told supporters Wednesday he’ll resign after capturing just 51.4 per cent of the vote in a leadership review.
On Thursday, Jean was adamant the only way for the party to move forward is to immediately jettison Kenney from the top spot and elect an interim leader.
“The leadership process can’t start until Kenney leaves — he knows that, we know that,” said Jean as headed into a UCP caucus meeting at Calgary’s McDougall Centre.
“We need to renew it and excite Albertans about the future of the party.”
In an online news conference, Smith said she wouldn’t object to Kenney staying on as premier until September — when she expects a leadership vote to be held — partly so he can host the Alberta visit of Pope Francis in July.
“The premier did a lot of work in getting reconciliation and an apology from the Vatican and the Pope . . . if he wants to stay as premier and stay for the honour he deserves, I wouldn’t object to that,” he said.
“I would defer to caucus in making that judgment.”
Later on Thursday, party officials announced Kenney would remain at the helm until a replacement was elected on a yet-to-be-determined date.
Smith said she’s learned from the past, which included what she called the “mistake” of crossing the floor as leader of the Wildrose to join with then-premier Jim Prentice’s ruling Progressive Conservatives in late 2014.
“It’s not what Albertans wanted me to do, they wanted me to continue holding (Prentice) to account. I didn’t, it was a big mistake on my part and we were both judged very harshly for that,” she said, adding she’s committed to party unity.
“Albertans recognize that with the NDP polling at 44 per cent, that if we split this movement we won’t be successful at forming the next government.”
Danielle Smith, former leader of the Wildrose Party and talk show host, is running for the United Conservative Party of Alberta in the 2023 General Election.
Part of the healing and uniting process, said Smith, would be officially apologizing to all those charged or arrested for violating COVID-19 public health restrictions in the past two years and exploring how such enforcement could be avoided in the future.
Jean has said he opposes COVID-19 vaccine mandates and expanding an immunization passport program imposed last fall.
On April 1, Smith, 51, announced she’d seek the UCP nomination in the Livingstone-Macleod riding currently held by MLA Roger Reid but also made it clear she was ready to run for the party’s leadership .
She led Wildrose beginning in October 2009 and positioned the party to defeat Allison Redford’s Progressive Conservatives in the 2012 provincial election.
But issues over perceived extremism in the Wildrose ranks and her refusal to exert discipline torpedoed those electoral hopes.
In a surprise move, she crossed the floor to join Premier Jim Prentice’s Progressive Conservatives in December 2014.
That was seen by many on the political right as a betrayal and she failed to win the PC nomination in the Highwood riding the following year.
Smith worked as a radio host for six years until stepping down in January 2021, citing an increasing hostility toward free speech .
She insisted that doesn’t mean she’s too thin-skinned for a return to politics.
“I can handle the heat, I’ve handled heat for a lot of years — what I can’t handle is cancel culture and that’s what we’ve really got to push back against,” said Smith.
Jean, 59, easily won the Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche byelection in March on a platform of ousting Kenney as party leader.
Prior to that, he’d been an MP in the Stephen Harper federal Conservative government and led the Wildrose party after Smith’s departure from 2015 to 2017, until its merger with the PCs.
He was MLA for Fort McMurray-Conklin from 2015 to 2018, leaving after he lost the party leadership to Kenney in a race tarnished by the so-called “kamikaze campaign” that remains under RCMP investigation.
Calgary-Klein MLA Jeremy told reporters Thursday he’s not ruling out a run for his party’s leadership.
“I haven’t made that decision at this time – I have a lot to add to the conversation whether thats’s running myself or getting behind somebody,” said Nixon.
“I wouldn’t rule myself out of anything at this time.”
Jean and Smith represent the right wing of the UCP, but current cabinet ministers further to the centre, including Jobs, Economy and Innovation Minister Doug Schweitzer and Finance Minister Travis Toews, would be credible candidates, said Mount Royal University political science professor Lori Williams.
But Williams said that leadership choice might not come down to a left-right split given what ousted Kenney.
“It had a lot more to do with his leadership choices, his flip-flopping and inability to operate to what Albertans wanted,” she said.
“He didn’t seem to hear or understand that.”
FILE PHOTO: Doug Schweitzer and Travis Toews attend the rural crime town hall at the Hampton Inn in Grande Prairie, Alta. on Thursday, Sept. 12, 2019.
But because of his divisive influence, the sooner Kenney leaves the party’s top position the better, with a change in leadership automatically making an NDP election win next year harder to achieve, said Williams.
“There’s no question (the NDP) would prefer Jason Kenney staying on and the party remaining split,” she said.
Another name that’s arisen as a UCP leadership possibility is Calgary Nose Hill Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner.
She didn’t answer when asked Thursday if she’s considering entering the race, but in a statement called for unity and for her provincial cousins to strive for equality of opportunity as she does in Parliament.
“I know my conservative colleagues in the Alberta legislature will continue to do the same,” said Rempel Garner.
Former federal cabinet minister Rona Ambrose, who’s seen by some as a natural successor to Kenney, has said she doesn’t want the job.
Cypress Hills-Medicine Hat MLA Drew Barnes, who was booted from the UCP over his opposition to Kenney’s leadership, also gave no intention of challenging for the leadership but said he was ready to return to the party.
Meanwhile, Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley said uncertainty in the UCP’s leadership will continue to ensure the government’s dysfunction.
“The drama and infighting plaguing the UCP is not over,” she said, while surrounded by NDP candidates and MLAs.
And she said no matter who the UCP chooses as the next leader, they’re still headed for a tough reckoning with voters a year from now.
“What we’re hearing on the doorsteps is people don’t trust the UCP and it doesn’t matter who ultimately leads the UCP,” said Notley.
— With files from Dylan Short
BKaufmann@postmedia.com
Related
Monday, May 08, 2023
Here are the ridings to watch in the 2023 Alberta provincial election
CBC
Sat, May 6, 2023
Alberta will head to the polls on May 29. (Dan McGarvey/CBC - image credit)
With polls suggesting the UCP and NDP are nearly identical in support, all eyes are focusing on Alberta ridings that could determine the outcome of the May 29 provincial election.
Calgary and Southern Alberta
Calgary-Elbow
Since former premier Ralph Klein left provincial politics in early 2007, five MLAs from four different parties have represented Calgary-Elbow. It's the riding that sent Klein and former premier Alison Redford to the legislature.
Former UCP MLA and cabinet minister Doug Schweitzer handily won Calgary-Elbow in the 2019 election, defeating ex-Alberta Party leader Greg Clark.
But Schweitzer resigned last summer and the riding has been vacant since. It's never been NDP territory and the UCP wants to keep it in the blue column.
For this election, lawyer Chris Davis is carrying the UCP banner and he's facing off against Samir Kayande, who has worked in the oil and gas sector as well as the tech industry. The Alberta Party has nominated Kerry Cundal.
Samir Kayande/Facebook
Calgary-Acadia
This riding has long been held by conservative-minded politicians. But in 2015, with a vote split between the PC and Wildrose parties, Calgary-Acadia went to the NDP — one of many surprise victories for the party in Calgary that year.
The UCP's Tyler Shandro took the riding in 2019. He's running again and carrying some baggage. A former health minister and current minister of justice, Shandro generated headlines for going into his neighbour's driveway and yelling at him.
Tyler Shandro/Facebook
That led to a complaint to the Law Society of Alberta which resulted in a hearing for Shandro. That matter will conclude in June.
For this election, Shandro is facing off against NDP candidate Diana Batten, a registered nurse and nursing instructor. In the race to form government, both top parties are hoping Calgary-Acadia adds to their list of seats.
Calgary-North West
This is another strongly conservative part of Calgary but it is considered to be in play. This riding is a test of the NDP's suburban strength.
Sonya Savage took this riding in 2019 and was given the plum cabinet post of energy minister. When Danielle Smith became UCP leader last fall, she moved Savage to environment minister.
Jason Franson/The Canadian Press
After securing her party's nomination again, Savage abruptly announced in March she would not stand for re-election. Enter Rajan Sawhney. The UCP cabinet minister had just announced that for personal reasons, she would not seek re-election in her riding of Calgary-North East.
But after Savage's sudden departure, UCP leader Smith named Sawhney to run in Calgary-North West. Sawhney is taking on the NDP's Michael Lisboa-Smith, a teacher. Jennifer Yeremiy is representing the Alberta Party in this riding.
Calgary-Cross
Recent polling seems to show that this northeast Calgary riding could be one of the more interesting races in the election.
UCP cabinet minister Mickey Amery, whose father was a longtime northeast MLA, is seeking re-election. He's up against the NDP's Gurinder Singh Gill who has run in past elections.
The tricky thing to watch in Calgary-Cross is turnout.
For example, the NDP's Ricardo Miranda pulled a major upset in defeating a star PC candidate in the 2015 election, former police chief Rick Hanson. Miranda boosted his vote total in the 2019 election but was defeated by Amery.
CBC
The northeast feels slighted by the UCP government on a number of issues including a lack of provincial response to a major hailstorm a couple of years ago that devastated many homes. Health and education are also key concerns in the riding.
If the NDP's message resonates here, it could be a sign that other ridings in the northeast are in play in this election. The UCP wants to hold that line in the northeast to help it stay in power.
Lethbridge-East and West
Lethbridge's two ridings could also be key in determining if the NDP has a shot at winning the election. Party stalwart Shannon Phillips is the NDP candidate in Lethbridge-West, a riding she first won in 2015.
The UCP had selected Torry Tanner as its standard bearer but she stepped down prior to the election call. That decision followed a video she posted in the past surfaced, in which she blamed teachers for exposing students to pornography and helping them change their gender identity.
Cheryl Seaborn, a former UCP constituency president, has replaced her.
Nate Neudorf/Facebook
In Lethbridge-East, UCP cabinet minister and deputy premier Nathan Neudorf is facing off against Rob Miyashiro for the NDP.
Miyashiro is a former two-term member of Lethbridge city council. With this riding's history of sending a progressive to Edmonton, the NDP is hoping to add this one to their tally.
Alberta NDP
Banff-Kananaskis
This sprawling riding includes the mountain communities of Banff and Canmore as well as the Stoney Nakoda and Tsuut'ina first nations. It went NDP in 2015 but the UCP won in 2019 with Miranda Rosin.
She pledged to fight plans to build the Springbank off-stream reservoir, a project seen as key to preventing a repeat of the 2013 flood in Calgary.
Sarah Elmeligi/Facebook
The UCP government, under then premier Jason Kenney, went ahead with the project but new UCP Leader Danielle Smith mused a few months ago about revisiting the plan. There's no sign of any changes.
Given environmental concerns in communities like Banff and Canmore, the NDP is hoping this riding is a possible flip. Potential coal mining along the eastern slopes of the Rockies and the UCP's decision to charge people to access Kananaskis Country are also local concerns.
Rosin is seeking another term. NDP candidate Sarah Elmeligi, a conservation biologist, won a contested nomination for the NDP. Regan Boychuk is the candidate for the Green Party of Alberta.
Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press
Edmonton and northern Alberta
Edmonton-South West
In 2019, the NDP swept every Edmonton riding except Edmonton-South West. Edmonton UCP candidate Kaycee Madu won over his closest competitor by 715 votes.
Then-premier Kenney made the Edmonton lawyer and political rookie a member of his cabinet. Madu served in three different cabinet portfolios and is one of Smith's two deputy premiers.
His time in office was marked by controversy. A retired Court of Queen's Bench justice found Madu, then the justice minister, tried to interfere with the administration of justice when he called Edmonton Police Chief Dale McFee about a traffic ticket in March 2021.
Nathan Ip/Facebook
Madu faces a high-profile NDP candidate his time around: Nathan Ip, vice-chair of the Edmonton Public School Board. The NDP believes they will win Edmonton-South West in a sweep of all 20 city ridings. A UCP campaign source says Madu and his volunteers are working hard to win a second term.
Edmonton-South West is a riding to watch because it may act as a referendum on what the UCP, and Madu as its only representative on cabinet, has done for the capital city.
Morinville-St. Albert
Morinville-St. Albert, which includes the northeast part of the city of St. Albert and rural areas north of Edmonton city limits, was a new riding in the 2019 election.
UCP candidate Dale Nally easily won over his closest competitor in 2019 with 50 per cent of the vote. Nally, who served as Service Alberta and red tape reduction minister under Smith, is seeking a second term.
Ty Ferguson/CBC
The NDP thinks its candidate Karen Shaw has a good chance at unseating him. Shaw was a Sturgeon County councillor for four terms and operates a family farm in the area.
The NDP has a difficult time winning seats in rural areas as voters usually choose conservative candidates, but the party believes it is competitive in this riding.
Edmonton-Sherwood Park and Sherwood Park
The two ridings east of Edmonton are ones to watch. In 2015, both went to NDP candidates who defeated Progressive Conservative candidates. The UCP won both seats easily four years later.
It's possible the seats could flip back to the NDP in 2023.
David Bajer/CBC
UCP incumbent Jordan Walker is in for a fight against NDP candidate Kyle Kasawski in Sherwood Park, the more urban of the two ridings. Alberta Party stalwart Sue Timanson is running again in Sherwood Park.
Nate Glubish, who served in cabinet under both Kenney and Smith, is seeking a second term in Strathcona-Sherwood Park. He is facing a well-known NDP candidate in Strathcona County councillor Bill Tonita.
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
The NDP has found it hard to break through in rural ridings but the party thinks they have a great chance in Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville.
Taneen Rudyk, a councillor in the town of Vegreville and president of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities, is carrying the party's banner in 2023.
Although the area usually votes conservative, Rudyk's father Derek Fox served two terms as the NDP MLA for the former riding of Vegreville.
Town of Vegreville
Jackie Armstrong-Homeniuk is seeking a second term for the UCP. Armstrong-Homeniuk was the government's point person on settling refugees who have fled the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
With a significant number of the riding's voters descendants of Ukrainian immigrants who settled the area in the early part of the 20th Century, is one one of the reasons why the party is confident she'll win on May 29.
Lesser Slave Lake
The NDP is hoping for good things in Lesser Slave Lake, although the seat is a long shot for the party.
Former NDP cabinet minister Danielle Larivee is hoping to return to the legislature after being defeated by UCP candidate Pat Rehn in 2019.
The NDP hope voters will embrace Larivee after Rehn's controversial time in office.
Kenney removed Rehn from the UCP caucus for six months after municipal leaders complained the MLA was never in the constituency.
Danielle Larivee/Google Meet
However, the riding was a conservative stronghold prior to 2015. Former Progressive Conservative MLA Pearl Calahasen represented the area for 26 years before Larivee was elected.
With Rehn not running again, Scott Sinclair became the candidate for the UCP after winning a close nomination race against three others.
CBC
Sat, May 6, 2023
Alberta will head to the polls on May 29. (Dan McGarvey/CBC - image credit)
With polls suggesting the UCP and NDP are nearly identical in support, all eyes are focusing on Alberta ridings that could determine the outcome of the May 29 provincial election.
Calgary and Southern Alberta
Calgary-Elbow
Since former premier Ralph Klein left provincial politics in early 2007, five MLAs from four different parties have represented Calgary-Elbow. It's the riding that sent Klein and former premier Alison Redford to the legislature.
Former UCP MLA and cabinet minister Doug Schweitzer handily won Calgary-Elbow in the 2019 election, defeating ex-Alberta Party leader Greg Clark.
But Schweitzer resigned last summer and the riding has been vacant since. It's never been NDP territory and the UCP wants to keep it in the blue column.
For this election, lawyer Chris Davis is carrying the UCP banner and he's facing off against Samir Kayande, who has worked in the oil and gas sector as well as the tech industry. The Alberta Party has nominated Kerry Cundal.
Samir Kayande/Facebook
Calgary-Acadia
This riding has long been held by conservative-minded politicians. But in 2015, with a vote split between the PC and Wildrose parties, Calgary-Acadia went to the NDP — one of many surprise victories for the party in Calgary that year.
The UCP's Tyler Shandro took the riding in 2019. He's running again and carrying some baggage. A former health minister and current minister of justice, Shandro generated headlines for going into his neighbour's driveway and yelling at him.
Tyler Shandro/Facebook
That led to a complaint to the Law Society of Alberta which resulted in a hearing for Shandro. That matter will conclude in June.
For this election, Shandro is facing off against NDP candidate Diana Batten, a registered nurse and nursing instructor. In the race to form government, both top parties are hoping Calgary-Acadia adds to their list of seats.
Calgary-North West
This is another strongly conservative part of Calgary but it is considered to be in play. This riding is a test of the NDP's suburban strength.
Sonya Savage took this riding in 2019 and was given the plum cabinet post of energy minister. When Danielle Smith became UCP leader last fall, she moved Savage to environment minister.
Jason Franson/The Canadian Press
After securing her party's nomination again, Savage abruptly announced in March she would not stand for re-election. Enter Rajan Sawhney. The UCP cabinet minister had just announced that for personal reasons, she would not seek re-election in her riding of Calgary-North East.
But after Savage's sudden departure, UCP leader Smith named Sawhney to run in Calgary-North West. Sawhney is taking on the NDP's Michael Lisboa-Smith, a teacher. Jennifer Yeremiy is representing the Alberta Party in this riding.
Calgary-Cross
Recent polling seems to show that this northeast Calgary riding could be one of the more interesting races in the election.
UCP cabinet minister Mickey Amery, whose father was a longtime northeast MLA, is seeking re-election. He's up against the NDP's Gurinder Singh Gill who has run in past elections.
The tricky thing to watch in Calgary-Cross is turnout.
For example, the NDP's Ricardo Miranda pulled a major upset in defeating a star PC candidate in the 2015 election, former police chief Rick Hanson. Miranda boosted his vote total in the 2019 election but was defeated by Amery.
CBC
The northeast feels slighted by the UCP government on a number of issues including a lack of provincial response to a major hailstorm a couple of years ago that devastated many homes. Health and education are also key concerns in the riding.
If the NDP's message resonates here, it could be a sign that other ridings in the northeast are in play in this election. The UCP wants to hold that line in the northeast to help it stay in power.
Lethbridge-East and West
Lethbridge's two ridings could also be key in determining if the NDP has a shot at winning the election. Party stalwart Shannon Phillips is the NDP candidate in Lethbridge-West, a riding she first won in 2015.
The UCP had selected Torry Tanner as its standard bearer but she stepped down prior to the election call. That decision followed a video she posted in the past surfaced, in which she blamed teachers for exposing students to pornography and helping them change their gender identity.
Cheryl Seaborn, a former UCP constituency president, has replaced her.
Nate Neudorf/Facebook
In Lethbridge-East, UCP cabinet minister and deputy premier Nathan Neudorf is facing off against Rob Miyashiro for the NDP.
Miyashiro is a former two-term member of Lethbridge city council. With this riding's history of sending a progressive to Edmonton, the NDP is hoping to add this one to their tally.
Alberta NDP
Banff-Kananaskis
This sprawling riding includes the mountain communities of Banff and Canmore as well as the Stoney Nakoda and Tsuut'ina first nations. It went NDP in 2015 but the UCP won in 2019 with Miranda Rosin.
She pledged to fight plans to build the Springbank off-stream reservoir, a project seen as key to preventing a repeat of the 2013 flood in Calgary.
Sarah Elmeligi/Facebook
The UCP government, under then premier Jason Kenney, went ahead with the project but new UCP Leader Danielle Smith mused a few months ago about revisiting the plan. There's no sign of any changes.
Given environmental concerns in communities like Banff and Canmore, the NDP is hoping this riding is a possible flip. Potential coal mining along the eastern slopes of the Rockies and the UCP's decision to charge people to access Kananaskis Country are also local concerns.
Rosin is seeking another term. NDP candidate Sarah Elmeligi, a conservation biologist, won a contested nomination for the NDP. Regan Boychuk is the candidate for the Green Party of Alberta.
Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press
Edmonton and northern Alberta
Edmonton-South West
In 2019, the NDP swept every Edmonton riding except Edmonton-South West. Edmonton UCP candidate Kaycee Madu won over his closest competitor by 715 votes.
Then-premier Kenney made the Edmonton lawyer and political rookie a member of his cabinet. Madu served in three different cabinet portfolios and is one of Smith's two deputy premiers.
His time in office was marked by controversy. A retired Court of Queen's Bench justice found Madu, then the justice minister, tried to interfere with the administration of justice when he called Edmonton Police Chief Dale McFee about a traffic ticket in March 2021.
Nathan Ip/Facebook
Madu faces a high-profile NDP candidate his time around: Nathan Ip, vice-chair of the Edmonton Public School Board. The NDP believes they will win Edmonton-South West in a sweep of all 20 city ridings. A UCP campaign source says Madu and his volunteers are working hard to win a second term.
Edmonton-South West is a riding to watch because it may act as a referendum on what the UCP, and Madu as its only representative on cabinet, has done for the capital city.
Morinville-St. Albert
Morinville-St. Albert, which includes the northeast part of the city of St. Albert and rural areas north of Edmonton city limits, was a new riding in the 2019 election.
UCP candidate Dale Nally easily won over his closest competitor in 2019 with 50 per cent of the vote. Nally, who served as Service Alberta and red tape reduction minister under Smith, is seeking a second term.
Ty Ferguson/CBC
The NDP thinks its candidate Karen Shaw has a good chance at unseating him. Shaw was a Sturgeon County councillor for four terms and operates a family farm in the area.
The NDP has a difficult time winning seats in rural areas as voters usually choose conservative candidates, but the party believes it is competitive in this riding.
Edmonton-Sherwood Park and Sherwood Park
The two ridings east of Edmonton are ones to watch. In 2015, both went to NDP candidates who defeated Progressive Conservative candidates. The UCP won both seats easily four years later.
It's possible the seats could flip back to the NDP in 2023.
David Bajer/CBC
UCP incumbent Jordan Walker is in for a fight against NDP candidate Kyle Kasawski in Sherwood Park, the more urban of the two ridings. Alberta Party stalwart Sue Timanson is running again in Sherwood Park.
Nate Glubish, who served in cabinet under both Kenney and Smith, is seeking a second term in Strathcona-Sherwood Park. He is facing a well-known NDP candidate in Strathcona County councillor Bill Tonita.
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
The NDP has found it hard to break through in rural ridings but the party thinks they have a great chance in Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville.
Taneen Rudyk, a councillor in the town of Vegreville and president of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities, is carrying the party's banner in 2023.
Although the area usually votes conservative, Rudyk's father Derek Fox served two terms as the NDP MLA for the former riding of Vegreville.
Town of Vegreville
Jackie Armstrong-Homeniuk is seeking a second term for the UCP. Armstrong-Homeniuk was the government's point person on settling refugees who have fled the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
With a significant number of the riding's voters descendants of Ukrainian immigrants who settled the area in the early part of the 20th Century, is one one of the reasons why the party is confident she'll win on May 29.
Lesser Slave Lake
The NDP is hoping for good things in Lesser Slave Lake, although the seat is a long shot for the party.
Former NDP cabinet minister Danielle Larivee is hoping to return to the legislature after being defeated by UCP candidate Pat Rehn in 2019.
The NDP hope voters will embrace Larivee after Rehn's controversial time in office.
Kenney removed Rehn from the UCP caucus for six months after municipal leaders complained the MLA was never in the constituency.
Danielle Larivee/Google Meet
However, the riding was a conservative stronghold prior to 2015. Former Progressive Conservative MLA Pearl Calahasen represented the area for 26 years before Larivee was elected.
With Rehn not running again, Scott Sinclair became the candidate for the UCP after winning a close nomination race against three others.
Tuesday, February 22, 2022
Notley:
Alberta Budget must relieve pressure on families, protect public health care
OPINION
OPINION
Rachel Notley - Leader Alberta NDP
As Albertans, we all keep a close eye on global energy prices. For many cycles of boom and bust, our fortunes have been tied to the prices of West Texas Intermediate and Western Canadian Select.
© Provided by Edmonton Journal
© Provided by Edmonton Journal
Alberta NDP Official Opposition Leader Rachel Notley speaks to the media prior to the first in a series of budget town halls, in Edmonton Tuesday Sept. 10, 2019.
As I write this, oil is trading at prices we haven’t seen for eight or more years, and those prices are supercharged by a favourable exchange rate for Canadian dollars. It’s a welcome reversal from the depressed prices we’ve seen to varying degrees since 2014.
But something is different this time. The energy industry has significantly restructured in response to those many years of low prices. Instead of building and hiring, most firms are passing this money directly along to shareholders, including many outside of Alberta.
Meeting with Alberta families and small business owners, it’s clear they aren’t feeling the prosperity of previous booms. In fact, many Albertans tell me they are falling further behind each month. Inflation is driving up the cost of everything from ground beef to gasoline. The policies of the UCP are driving up many other monthly costs. Albertans are paying more income tax, property tax, school fees, tuition, more interest on student debt, more camping fees, and vastly more for car insurance and utilities, all thanks to the UCP.
Meanwhile, today’s cash boom is doing wonders for the provincial treasury. Albertans should expect to see a significant surplus in the budget this month. We can also expect the UCP to claim credit for this. Let’s be clear: a traffic cone could balance the budget riding the current global energy price rally.
But with this cash boom for the government in mind, here are some of the things I will be looking for in the provincial budget.
First, the UCP must reattach personal income tax brackets to inflation. Jason Kenney used to rage against the federal Liberals for their policy of “bracket creep” — he’s called it an enormous, insidious, vicious, pernicious way to hike income taxes by stealth. It’s also the very first thing Kenney and the UCP did to Albertans, starting with their first budget. This sneaky tax hike will separate Alberta families from another $850 million in new taxes by election day of 2023. Bracket creep should be abolished in this budget.
Secondly, there are a range of benefits for Albertans that the UCP has disconnected from inflation, which means their real buying power shrinks every month. We all see what’s happening at the grocery store. With inflation at 30-year highs, the same basket of food is getting more expensive every month. The Child and Family Benefit, the Seniors Benefit, Income Support, and Assured Income for the Severely Handicapped (AISH) are all being devalued by inflation, thanks to the UCP.
Albertans who receive AISH are surviving below the poverty line, and the UCP’s policy will take about $1,000 worth of yearly buying power away from them by 2023. Our government indexed AISH to inflation, and the UCP supported this move, only to reverse it immediately after the election — yet another reason why Albertans can’t trust the UCP. I will be looking for these cruel UCP policies to be reversed in Budget 2022.
I am very concerned to hear Kenney and the UCP signal that they intend to use the COVID-19 pandemic as an excuse to push Alberta health care towards an American model of private, for-profit delivery. We have all heard the UCP try to shift the blame for their COVID failures onto health-care workers. But Albertans know the truth — we weren’t let down by the health-care system; we were let down by the UCP. This government attacked doctors and nurses before and during the pandemic, and is still rolling out a plan to lay off 11,000 frontline professionals.
In wave after wave, the UCP failed to act when the danger was obvious and pandered to extremists instead of protecting families. The UCP’s negligence led to hundreds of preventable deaths and tens of thousands of Albertans’ surgeries getting cancelled. The bottom line is this: Albertans can’t trust the UCP with their health care.
Lastly, we need to have a serious strategic discussion about how to ensure energy revenues are reinvested in jobs and projects here in Alberta that drive long-term prosperity and diversification. We must not repeat the mistakes of several Conservative governments and pretend that non-renewable resource revenue will be around forever.
We’ve started this conversation with Alberta families and businesses at AlbertasFuture.ca . I invite all Albertans to check out the proposals we have made, and to add their voices to this critical discussion.
Rachel Notley is leader of the Alberta NDP and leader of the official Opposition.
As I write this, oil is trading at prices we haven’t seen for eight or more years, and those prices are supercharged by a favourable exchange rate for Canadian dollars. It’s a welcome reversal from the depressed prices we’ve seen to varying degrees since 2014.
But something is different this time. The energy industry has significantly restructured in response to those many years of low prices. Instead of building and hiring, most firms are passing this money directly along to shareholders, including many outside of Alberta.
Meeting with Alberta families and small business owners, it’s clear they aren’t feeling the prosperity of previous booms. In fact, many Albertans tell me they are falling further behind each month. Inflation is driving up the cost of everything from ground beef to gasoline. The policies of the UCP are driving up many other monthly costs. Albertans are paying more income tax, property tax, school fees, tuition, more interest on student debt, more camping fees, and vastly more for car insurance and utilities, all thanks to the UCP.
Meanwhile, today’s cash boom is doing wonders for the provincial treasury. Albertans should expect to see a significant surplus in the budget this month. We can also expect the UCP to claim credit for this. Let’s be clear: a traffic cone could balance the budget riding the current global energy price rally.
But with this cash boom for the government in mind, here are some of the things I will be looking for in the provincial budget.
First, the UCP must reattach personal income tax brackets to inflation. Jason Kenney used to rage against the federal Liberals for their policy of “bracket creep” — he’s called it an enormous, insidious, vicious, pernicious way to hike income taxes by stealth. It’s also the very first thing Kenney and the UCP did to Albertans, starting with their first budget. This sneaky tax hike will separate Alberta families from another $850 million in new taxes by election day of 2023. Bracket creep should be abolished in this budget.
Secondly, there are a range of benefits for Albertans that the UCP has disconnected from inflation, which means their real buying power shrinks every month. We all see what’s happening at the grocery store. With inflation at 30-year highs, the same basket of food is getting more expensive every month. The Child and Family Benefit, the Seniors Benefit, Income Support, and Assured Income for the Severely Handicapped (AISH) are all being devalued by inflation, thanks to the UCP.
Albertans who receive AISH are surviving below the poverty line, and the UCP’s policy will take about $1,000 worth of yearly buying power away from them by 2023. Our government indexed AISH to inflation, and the UCP supported this move, only to reverse it immediately after the election — yet another reason why Albertans can’t trust the UCP. I will be looking for these cruel UCP policies to be reversed in Budget 2022.
I am very concerned to hear Kenney and the UCP signal that they intend to use the COVID-19 pandemic as an excuse to push Alberta health care towards an American model of private, for-profit delivery. We have all heard the UCP try to shift the blame for their COVID failures onto health-care workers. But Albertans know the truth — we weren’t let down by the health-care system; we were let down by the UCP. This government attacked doctors and nurses before and during the pandemic, and is still rolling out a plan to lay off 11,000 frontline professionals.
In wave after wave, the UCP failed to act when the danger was obvious and pandered to extremists instead of protecting families. The UCP’s negligence led to hundreds of preventable deaths and tens of thousands of Albertans’ surgeries getting cancelled. The bottom line is this: Albertans can’t trust the UCP with their health care.
Lastly, we need to have a serious strategic discussion about how to ensure energy revenues are reinvested in jobs and projects here in Alberta that drive long-term prosperity and diversification. We must not repeat the mistakes of several Conservative governments and pretend that non-renewable resource revenue will be around forever.
We’ve started this conversation with Alberta families and businesses at AlbertasFuture.ca . I invite all Albertans to check out the proposals we have made, and to add their voices to this critical discussion.
Rachel Notley is leader of the Alberta NDP and leader of the official Opposition.
Saturday, December 04, 2021
Braid: Major decisions on Kenney critics are looming for the UCP
At the legislature, MLAs understand that any criticism of Premier Jason Kenney or the government will freeze them out of committees and legislature debates or statements.
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The usually rambunctious UCP has fallen oddly silent since the recent party convention in Calgary.
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But it doesn’t mean there’s a peace treaty.
At the legislature, MLAs understand that any criticism of Premier Jason Kenney or the government will freeze them out of committees and legislature debates or statements.
The most vocal recent critics, MLAs Leela Aheer from Chestermere-Strathmore and Airdrie-Cochrane member Peter Guthrie, seem to be biding their time, waiting to see what happens in the next few weeks.
Plenty is happening already.
There’s a fierce background battle over the UCP nomination in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche, where former Wildrose Leader Brian Jean is up against Joshua Gogo, who has no critical word for Kenney.
The riding is open because UCP member Laila Goodridge resigned to run successfully for the federal Conservatives.
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Jean has said that he’ll return to the legislature to give Kenney’s opponents some spine. He wants the premier to resign.
Kenney says he will endorse Jean “100 per cent” if party members choose him as a candidate.
That’s easy to say, because Kenney’s supporters have no intention of letting Jean win this nomination.
Brian Jean as an official UCP candidate would be a huge symbolic defeat for Kenney. It would imply that UCP members who want him out have a wide base in the province.
There aren’t many Canadian premiers — certainly not this one — who would tolerate a former leadership competitor in their caucus as a declared member of an internal opposition party.
And so, Kenney’s people are striving to short-circuit Jean before he gets started. Some 370 new UCP members were signed up by Gogo’s backers and submitted by the final cutoff date.
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Jean’s campaigners feel they have majority backing based on his long record in federal and provincial politics and based on his support for the community.
This is the setup for tense in-person voting to be held Dec. 11 in Fort McMurray, and the next day in Lac La Biche.
Predictions in a situation like this are a mug’s game. But I would say, based on Kenney’s long record of winning backroom fights, that Jean has a less-than-even chance.
Even before that nomination vote, the party itself has a major decision to make.
Next week, probably on Dec. 6 or 7, the UCP board will rule on the 22 riding resolutions demanding a leadership vote by March 1. The party can’t simply ignore this and doesn’t intend to. Demanding a leadership vote with identical resolutions by 22 or more ridings is guaranteed in the party constitution.
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“If they think they can just push this aside, they’re completely wrong,” said one participant who wants an early vote. “This would be far from over.”
The party has already agreed to a leadership review in early April as part of an annual general meeting advanced by several months.
For many dissidents, a bigger sticking point than the date is the manner of balloting.
They want a provincewide vote of all members that would have to be conducted virtually.
They also demand independent scrutiny of both the voting and the results by an outside accounting firm.
That demand is a legacy of the notorious 2017 UCP leadership contest that saw controversy over contributions, voting and the so-called kamikaze candidacy of Jeff Callaway. Mistrust lies heavy on the party to this day.
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For the party board, accepting the riding resolutions as legitimate appears to be a slam dunk — outright rejection would cause a revolt.
But the board will also say, most likely, that while the ridings can rightfully force a vote, only the elected board can set the date or the rules.
It’s possible the balloting might be moved into March as a concession, but this is no sure thing. The decisions haven’t yet been made.
Best guess of the outcome? Kenney wins a leadership review held with in-person voting and sails on to the next election.
At that point the UCP’s dissidents, with no formal options left, would have a choice: fade away or burst into an uprising that makes all the earlier ones look tame.
Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald
Twitter: @DonBraid
Facebook: Don Braid Politics
Brian Jean preferred as UCP leader over Jason Kenney, Danielle Smith: Leger poll
Brian Jean celebrates the yes vote during the Unity Vote at the Wildrose Special General Meeting in Red Deer Alta, on Saturday July 22, 2017. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press)
Sean Amato
CTV News Edmonton
Published Dec. 3, 2021
EDMONTON -
Albertans are more likely to vote for Brian Jean than Jason Kenney or Danielle Smith, a new Leger poll shows.
Jean has support from 18 per cent of Albertans, the premier is preferred by 15 per cent and former Wildrose leader Smith polled at 11 per cent.
A slight majority of Albertans, 51 per cent, said they would not vote for the UCP under any leader.
RELATED STORIES
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Kenney suggests Jean will be allowed to run, questions his 'commitment and reliability'
"These poll results show that public mood in Alberta has shifted decisively against the United Conservative Party, most likely as a result of the way the governing party has handled the unprecedented COVID-19 crisis," said Remi Courcelles from Solstice Public Affairs, the company that commissioned the poll.
"A change in leadership won’t necessarily solve all of the UCP’s problems. That being said, it would appear that a UCP led by Brian Jean would improve the party’s electoral fortunes."
Regionally, Kenney was preferred in Calgary, he and Jean are tied in Edmonton but Jean was favoured 23 per cent to 15 per cent for Kenney outside of the big cities.
Kenney has struggled in polls throughout the pandemic, with an Angus Reid survey recently pegging his popularity at 22 per cent.
The UCP tossed two MLAs who criticized Kenney, roughly 25 per cent of its constituency associations are demanding an early leadership review and the governing party has finished second in some fundraising races to the NDP.
Jean – who lost a provincial election to Rachel Notley's NDP in 2015 as leader of the Wildrose Party – has publicly asked for Kenney's resignation and said he could do a better job of leading the UCP.
"If he doesn't leave we are going to have an NDP majority," Jean said in November.
"The UCP will not be in competition. It won't be competitive in the next election. That's very concerning to me."
Jean is attempting to win a UCP nomination and a by-election to become the MLA for Fort McMurray-Lac la Biche.
Kenney has publicly questioned Jean's reliability to finish his term and his commitment to the UCP.
Smith has expressed interest in the job as well, but has not launched a campaign.
Kenney will face a UCP leadership review in April 2022, if not sooner.
The online survey was conducted between Nov. 16-29. It had a sample size of 1,000 adult Albertans. The method of polling was a non-probablity sample, so no margin of error can be associated.
Sean Amato
CTV News Edmonton
Published Dec. 3, 2021
EDMONTON -
Albertans are more likely to vote for Brian Jean than Jason Kenney or Danielle Smith, a new Leger poll shows.
Jean has support from 18 per cent of Albertans, the premier is preferred by 15 per cent and former Wildrose leader Smith polled at 11 per cent.
A slight majority of Albertans, 51 per cent, said they would not vote for the UCP under any leader.
RELATED STORIES
Kenney says his confidence is high as UCP AGM wraps up
'This is my party': Jean insists UCP will be crushed by NDP unless Kenney is gone
Kenney suggests Jean will be allowed to run, questions his 'commitment and reliability'
"These poll results show that public mood in Alberta has shifted decisively against the United Conservative Party, most likely as a result of the way the governing party has handled the unprecedented COVID-19 crisis," said Remi Courcelles from Solstice Public Affairs, the company that commissioned the poll.
"A change in leadership won’t necessarily solve all of the UCP’s problems. That being said, it would appear that a UCP led by Brian Jean would improve the party’s electoral fortunes."
Regionally, Kenney was preferred in Calgary, he and Jean are tied in Edmonton but Jean was favoured 23 per cent to 15 per cent for Kenney outside of the big cities.
Kenney has struggled in polls throughout the pandemic, with an Angus Reid survey recently pegging his popularity at 22 per cent.
The UCP tossed two MLAs who criticized Kenney, roughly 25 per cent of its constituency associations are demanding an early leadership review and the governing party has finished second in some fundraising races to the NDP.
Jean – who lost a provincial election to Rachel Notley's NDP in 2015 as leader of the Wildrose Party – has publicly asked for Kenney's resignation and said he could do a better job of leading the UCP.
"If he doesn't leave we are going to have an NDP majority," Jean said in November.
"The UCP will not be in competition. It won't be competitive in the next election. That's very concerning to me."
Jean is attempting to win a UCP nomination and a by-election to become the MLA for Fort McMurray-Lac la Biche.
Kenney has publicly questioned Jean's reliability to finish his term and his commitment to the UCP.
Smith has expressed interest in the job as well, but has not launched a campaign.
Kenney will face a UCP leadership review in April 2022, if not sooner.
The online survey was conducted between Nov. 16-29. It had a sample size of 1,000 adult Albertans. The method of polling was a non-probablity sample, so no margin of error can be associated.
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