Rick Bell - Yesterday
UCP leadership candidate Danielle Smith speaks at a campaign rally in Chestermere on Tuesday, August 9, 2022.© Provided by Calgary Sun
One minute you’re thinking about whether these UCP leadership hopefuls can defeat the NDP and their leader Rachel Notley.
The next minute some numbers appear as if from the political gods.
They’re actually numbers from the well-respected ThinkHQ Public Affairs.
It is a poll of adult Albertans.
Let’s roll. What are individuals asked?
Does the prospect of Brian Jean as UCP leader make you more or less likely to vote for the UCP in the next provincial election?
More likely 21%. Less likely 28%. That’s a minus 7.
What about voting for a Travis Toews-led UCP?
More likely 17%. Less likely 22%. That’s a minus 5.
Now, Danielle Smith.
More likely to vote for the UCP with Smith at the helm 20%. Less likely 39%.
That’s a minus 19.
Now let’s look at different parts of the province, starting with battleground Calgary.
The city of Calgary.
More likely to vote for a Jean-led UCP. 17%. Less likely 33%. Not so good.
In the city of Calgary, more likely to vote for Team Toews, 16%. Less likely 22%.
Smith? You want to know about Smith?
Within the Calgary city limits, 18% are more likely to vote UCP with Smith running the show. Less likely 44%.
Ouch.
Of the three candidates, where does Smith have the highest number of people less likely to vote UCP, compared to more likely to vote UCP with her in charge?
As well as Calgary, there’s the area around Calgary, and in the city of Edmonton, and surrounding the capital, and in small urban areas, and in northern Alberta.
Yes, Smith fares better in rural Alberta, but Jean and Toews are strong there as well.
You want some more, I know you do.
Related video: UCP leadership candidate Danielle Smith outlines her proposed Alberta Sovereignty Act
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Just one more helping of the political calculus.
For those identifying themselves as supporting the UCP, 35% are more likely to vote for the party in the next election with Smith in the top job and 22% less likely, numbers in the same neighbourhood as Toews and Jean.
As for those supporting the NDP, the intensity against Smith is greatest.
59% are less likely to back the UCP with Smith.
40% are less likely to back the party with a Jean-led UCP and 30% less likely with Toews holding the reins.
Of course, there is a margin of error and this is a snapshot in time, so handle the arithmetic as you see fit.
There is no conspiracy here. The numbers are the numbers.
Remember, this scribbler was the one rolling out the nose counts showing Smith as the frontrunner in the UCP leadership race by a healthy margin.
A little dessert? Who doesn’t like dessert?
Premier Jason Kenney has the approval of 30% of Albertans sampled, with 67% disapproving and few unsure how they feel.
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Jean has the approval of 33% and the disapproval of 49%. The rest are unsure.
Toews is at 29% approval and 38% disapproval with a full third of those polled unsure about him.
He’s a quiet guy.
Smith?
She has 27% approval and 58% disapproval.
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Now let’s bring in Marc Henry from ThinkHQ.
If the polling of UCP members is on the money and Smith wins the party leadership Oct. 6 to become premier, Henry says the following.
“There may be some real unintended consequences.
“She’s extremely divisive. She definitely has her supporters, her strong supporters. But she’s got more detractors and they’re strong detractors.”
And …
“She will absolutely invigorate NDP turnout. They’re more motivated against Smith than the others. Danielle Smith is a lightning rod for that vote. She becomes a rallying cry.”
The pollster finally points to those unsure of who they will vote for in the next provincial election.
With these folks, 16% are more likely to vote for a Toews UCP, 19% less likely.
If Jean is UCP leader it’s 18% more likely to vote UCP, 29% less likely.
With Smith as UCP leader, 10% are more likely to vote for the party and 39% are less likely.
We are told these are individuals who probably voted UCP in the last election and are sitting out there waiting to see what unfolds.
And to end this day …
The UCP without a leader and it’s a coin toss with the NDP, says the poll. The governing party is very much in the running.
With a leader?
“With Jean or Toews, you know, they have some work to do but certainly that base is there,” says Henry, the noted nose counter.
“With Smith, they are going to be facing a headwind.”
Knowing some of the Smith team now on board, if their candidate becomes premier, they will be pulling out all the stops to win the next election.
It promises to be a fight for the ages.
Meanwhile in Medicine Hat, with this race to be premier headed for the last lap on the track, Notley the NDP leader talks to families who do not have a family doctor.
rbell@postmedia.com
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