CBC
Sat, May 6, 2023
Alberta will head to the polls on May 29. (Dan McGarvey/CBC - image credit)
With polls suggesting the UCP and NDP are nearly identical in support, all eyes are focusing on Alberta ridings that could determine the outcome of the May 29 provincial election.
Calgary and Southern Alberta
Calgary-Elbow
Since former premier Ralph Klein left provincial politics in early 2007, five MLAs from four different parties have represented Calgary-Elbow. It's the riding that sent Klein and former premier Alison Redford to the legislature.
Former UCP MLA and cabinet minister Doug Schweitzer handily won Calgary-Elbow in the 2019 election, defeating ex-Alberta Party leader Greg Clark.
But Schweitzer resigned last summer and the riding has been vacant since. It's never been NDP territory and the UCP wants to keep it in the blue column.
For this election, lawyer Chris Davis is carrying the UCP banner and he's facing off against Samir Kayande, who has worked in the oil and gas sector as well as the tech industry. The Alberta Party has nominated Kerry Cundal.
Samir Kayande/Facebook
Calgary-Acadia
This riding has long been held by conservative-minded politicians. But in 2015, with a vote split between the PC and Wildrose parties, Calgary-Acadia went to the NDP — one of many surprise victories for the party in Calgary that year.
The UCP's Tyler Shandro took the riding in 2019. He's running again and carrying some baggage. A former health minister and current minister of justice, Shandro generated headlines for going into his neighbour's driveway and yelling at him.
Tyler Shandro/Facebook
That led to a complaint to the Law Society of Alberta which resulted in a hearing for Shandro. That matter will conclude in June.
For this election, Shandro is facing off against NDP candidate Diana Batten, a registered nurse and nursing instructor. In the race to form government, both top parties are hoping Calgary-Acadia adds to their list of seats.
Calgary-North West
This is another strongly conservative part of Calgary but it is considered to be in play. This riding is a test of the NDP's suburban strength.
Sonya Savage took this riding in 2019 and was given the plum cabinet post of energy minister. When Danielle Smith became UCP leader last fall, she moved Savage to environment minister.
Jason Franson/The Canadian Press
After securing her party's nomination again, Savage abruptly announced in March she would not stand for re-election. Enter Rajan Sawhney. The UCP cabinet minister had just announced that for personal reasons, she would not seek re-election in her riding of Calgary-North East.
But after Savage's sudden departure, UCP leader Smith named Sawhney to run in Calgary-North West. Sawhney is taking on the NDP's Michael Lisboa-Smith, a teacher. Jennifer Yeremiy is representing the Alberta Party in this riding.
Calgary-Cross
Recent polling seems to show that this northeast Calgary riding could be one of the more interesting races in the election.
UCP cabinet minister Mickey Amery, whose father was a longtime northeast MLA, is seeking re-election. He's up against the NDP's Gurinder Singh Gill who has run in past elections.
The tricky thing to watch in Calgary-Cross is turnout.
For example, the NDP's Ricardo Miranda pulled a major upset in defeating a star PC candidate in the 2015 election, former police chief Rick Hanson. Miranda boosted his vote total in the 2019 election but was defeated by Amery.
CBC
The northeast feels slighted by the UCP government on a number of issues including a lack of provincial response to a major hailstorm a couple of years ago that devastated many homes. Health and education are also key concerns in the riding.
If the NDP's message resonates here, it could be a sign that other ridings in the northeast are in play in this election. The UCP wants to hold that line in the northeast to help it stay in power.
Lethbridge-East and West
Lethbridge's two ridings could also be key in determining if the NDP has a shot at winning the election. Party stalwart Shannon Phillips is the NDP candidate in Lethbridge-West, a riding she first won in 2015.
The UCP had selected Torry Tanner as its standard bearer but she stepped down prior to the election call. That decision followed a video she posted in the past surfaced, in which she blamed teachers for exposing students to pornography and helping them change their gender identity.
Cheryl Seaborn, a former UCP constituency president, has replaced her.
Nate Neudorf/Facebook
In Lethbridge-East, UCP cabinet minister and deputy premier Nathan Neudorf is facing off against Rob Miyashiro for the NDP.
Miyashiro is a former two-term member of Lethbridge city council. With this riding's history of sending a progressive to Edmonton, the NDP is hoping to add this one to their tally.
Alberta NDP
Banff-Kananaskis
This sprawling riding includes the mountain communities of Banff and Canmore as well as the Stoney Nakoda and Tsuut'ina first nations. It went NDP in 2015 but the UCP won in 2019 with Miranda Rosin.
She pledged to fight plans to build the Springbank off-stream reservoir, a project seen as key to preventing a repeat of the 2013 flood in Calgary.
Sarah Elmeligi/Facebook
The UCP government, under then premier Jason Kenney, went ahead with the project but new UCP Leader Danielle Smith mused a few months ago about revisiting the plan. There's no sign of any changes.
Given environmental concerns in communities like Banff and Canmore, the NDP is hoping this riding is a possible flip. Potential coal mining along the eastern slopes of the Rockies and the UCP's decision to charge people to access Kananaskis Country are also local concerns.
Rosin is seeking another term. NDP candidate Sarah Elmeligi, a conservation biologist, won a contested nomination for the NDP. Regan Boychuk is the candidate for the Green Party of Alberta.
Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press
Edmonton and northern Alberta
Edmonton-South West
In 2019, the NDP swept every Edmonton riding except Edmonton-South West. Edmonton UCP candidate Kaycee Madu won over his closest competitor by 715 votes.
Then-premier Kenney made the Edmonton lawyer and political rookie a member of his cabinet. Madu served in three different cabinet portfolios and is one of Smith's two deputy premiers.
His time in office was marked by controversy. A retired Court of Queen's Bench justice found Madu, then the justice minister, tried to interfere with the administration of justice when he called Edmonton Police Chief Dale McFee about a traffic ticket in March 2021.
Nathan Ip/Facebook
Madu faces a high-profile NDP candidate his time around: Nathan Ip, vice-chair of the Edmonton Public School Board. The NDP believes they will win Edmonton-South West in a sweep of all 20 city ridings. A UCP campaign source says Madu and his volunteers are working hard to win a second term.
Edmonton-South West is a riding to watch because it may act as a referendum on what the UCP, and Madu as its only representative on cabinet, has done for the capital city.
Morinville-St. Albert
Morinville-St. Albert, which includes the northeast part of the city of St. Albert and rural areas north of Edmonton city limits, was a new riding in the 2019 election.
UCP candidate Dale Nally easily won over his closest competitor in 2019 with 50 per cent of the vote. Nally, who served as Service Alberta and red tape reduction minister under Smith, is seeking a second term.
Ty Ferguson/CBC
The NDP thinks its candidate Karen Shaw has a good chance at unseating him. Shaw was a Sturgeon County councillor for four terms and operates a family farm in the area.
The NDP has a difficult time winning seats in rural areas as voters usually choose conservative candidates, but the party believes it is competitive in this riding.
Edmonton-Sherwood Park and Sherwood Park
The two ridings east of Edmonton are ones to watch. In 2015, both went to NDP candidates who defeated Progressive Conservative candidates. The UCP won both seats easily four years later.
It's possible the seats could flip back to the NDP in 2023.
David Bajer/CBC
UCP incumbent Jordan Walker is in for a fight against NDP candidate Kyle Kasawski in Sherwood Park, the more urban of the two ridings. Alberta Party stalwart Sue Timanson is running again in Sherwood Park.
Nate Glubish, who served in cabinet under both Kenney and Smith, is seeking a second term in Strathcona-Sherwood Park. He is facing a well-known NDP candidate in Strathcona County councillor Bill Tonita.
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
The NDP has found it hard to break through in rural ridings but the party thinks they have a great chance in Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville.
Taneen Rudyk, a councillor in the town of Vegreville and president of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities, is carrying the party's banner in 2023.
Although the area usually votes conservative, Rudyk's father Derek Fox served two terms as the NDP MLA for the former riding of Vegreville.
Town of Vegreville
Jackie Armstrong-Homeniuk is seeking a second term for the UCP. Armstrong-Homeniuk was the government's point person on settling refugees who have fled the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
With a significant number of the riding's voters descendants of Ukrainian immigrants who settled the area in the early part of the 20th Century, is one one of the reasons why the party is confident she'll win on May 29.
Lesser Slave Lake
The NDP is hoping for good things in Lesser Slave Lake, although the seat is a long shot for the party.
Former NDP cabinet minister Danielle Larivee is hoping to return to the legislature after being defeated by UCP candidate Pat Rehn in 2019.
The NDP hope voters will embrace Larivee after Rehn's controversial time in office.
Kenney removed Rehn from the UCP caucus for six months after municipal leaders complained the MLA was never in the constituency.
Danielle Larivee/Google Meet
However, the riding was a conservative stronghold prior to 2015. Former Progressive Conservative MLA Pearl Calahasen represented the area for 26 years before Larivee was elected.
With Rehn not running again, Scott Sinclair became the candidate for the UCP after winning a close nomination race against three others.
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