Showing posts sorted by relevance for query WUHAN. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query WUHAN. Sort by date Show all posts

Wednesday, January 08, 2020

A New, Unidentified Virus Is Causing Pneumonia Outbreak in China, Officials Say

By  
So, what is it?

(Image: © Shutterstock)
The unidentified viral illness that has sickened dozens in the Chinese city of Wuhan is not severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), according to local health officials.    
In the early 2000s, an outbreak of SARS swept the globe, infecting more than 8,000 people and killing more than 750, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The epidemic began in China and hit the country harder than any other, so when an unknown form of pneumonia recently emerged in Wuhan, it stirred rumors of a second SARS outbreak. Now, local health officials have officially crossed SARS off the list of potential culprits, according to The New York Times. 
Officials also confirmed that the mystery illness is not Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), bird flu or an adenovirus. 
As of Sunday (Jan. 5), 59 people in Wuhan have been diagnosed with the unidentified disease, presenting with symptoms of fever, body aches, breathing difficulties and lung injury. The total number of infected people is up from the 44 cases reported last week. 
In addition, 21 people who recently visited the city were hospitalized in Hong Kong between Dec. 31 and Jan. 6, according to a report from the Hong Kong health department. The city will also ramp up efforts to spot feverish passengers traveling through its international airport and on its high-speed rail system, according to the report. Health authorities in Singapore are also on the alert for infected travelers and recently quarantined a young girl after her trip to Wuhan. She was later diagnosed with a common viral illness, according to the Singapore Ministry of Health.  
Rumors of a potential SARS outbreak gained traction online earlier this month, but Chinese authorities have since censored the hashtag #WuhanSARS and are now investigating eight people in Wuhan who allegedly spread misleading information about the outbreak on social media, The New York Times reported. The government failed to adequately inform the public and international health agencies during the historic SARS epidemic, which may explain the reaction of Chinese citizens to this new illness.  
"I have to emphasize this is a new disease, and no one on earth has gone through this before," Leo Poon, a public health expert at the University of Hong Kong, told The New York Times. "I hope this pathogen is a less harmful one so it would not cause a major epidemic similar to SARS. It would be a nightmare for all of us."
As of yet, no health workers have contracted the mystery illness, which may indicate that the virus has not begun to spread between people, Wang Linfa, an expert on emerging infectious diseases at the Duke-NUS Medical School in Singapore, told the Times. "We should not go into panic mode," he said.  
Originally published on Live Science. 

Hong Kong to add mystery respiratory illness to reportable diseases

Disease has sent 59 people to the hospital in the mainland Chinese city of Wuhan

The Associated Press · 

Secretary for Food and Health, Prof. Sophia Chan, speaks about response measures to prevent and control a mysterious infectious disease. (Andy Wong/Associated Press
Hong Kong's health chief said Tuesday that a respiratory illness whose cause remains unknown will be added to an official list of diseases that medical practitioners are required to report to the government.
The disease — an unidentified form of viral pneumonia — has sent 59 people to the hospital in the mainland Chinese city of Wuhan, in central Hubei province. As of Sunday, seven were in critical condition, while the rest were stable. Municipal authorities have ruled out SARS, the severe acute respiratory syndrome that killed 700 people in 2002 and 2003.
In Hong Kong, a total of 15 patients were being treated Sunday for symptoms including fever and respiratory infection after recent visits to Wuhan. It is not clear whether they have the same illness as the Wuhan patients
Speaking at a news conference, the health chief, Sophia Chan, said the "severe respiratory disease associated with a novel infectious agent" will be added to a list of reportable infectious diseases in Hong Kong's Prevention and Control of Disease Ordinance.
The regulation enables the government to take stronger measures against the spread of certain diseases, such as tuberculosis and chicken pox. Actions under the ordinance could include enforcing quarantines or limiting the movement of people who are suspected to have infections.
"Under the amendment, medical practitioners will have to report suspected cases as well as carry out appropriate investigations and follow-ups to the Center for Health Protection under the Department of Health," Chan said.
The U.S. Consulate General in Wuhan issued a health alert Tuesday for the pneumonia outbreak, warning travellers to Wuhan to avoid animals, as well as animal markets and products.
Dr. Gauden Galea, WHO Representative to China, said public health officials in China "remain focused on continued contact tracing, conducting environmental assessments at the wholesale market, and investigations to identify the pathogen causing the outbreak."
WHO is closely monitoring the event and communicating with counterparts in China, Galea added in a emailed statement

Precautions for travellers

Currently, there are no suspected cases in Canada or involving Canadians overseas, Anna Maddison, a spokesperson for the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) said.
Canada's Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, is keeping in close contact with her provincial and territorial colleagues, the agency said. PHAC officials are also in close contact with federal partners, the World Health Organization and other international partners.
Maddison pointed to systems to identify, prevent and control the spread of infectious diseases including a global public health intelligence monitoring system that scans the world's open source media
"No matter the destination, travellers should always take precautions against respiratory and other illnesses while travelling, and seek medical attention if they become ill."
During their trip, Canadian travellers to Wuhan city are encouraged to:
  • Avoid high-risk areas such as farms, live animal markets, and areas where animals may be slaughtered.
  • Avoid contact with animals (alive or dead), including pigs, chickens, ducks and wild birds.
  • Avoid surfaces with animal droppings or secretions on them.
Travellers should also wash their hands often, and practise proper cough and sneeze etiquette.
People are encouraged to tell their health-care providers about their travel if they become ill after returning to Canada. 
Toronto Pubic Health said the overall risk to residents is considered very low.
"Given that Toronto Pearson International Airport is an international travel hub, Toronto Public Health is actively monitoring this situation, along with provincial and national health agencies," the department added in a release.
With files from CBC News

RELATED STORIES

EXTERNAL LINKS


  • Pneumonia of unknown cause – China, World Health Organization
  • Wuhan Health Commission updates
  • Wuhan ‘pneumonia’: Hong Kong health chief under pressure to seek more information from mainland authorities amid silence on latest patient numbers
  • Lawmakers grill health secretary Sophia Chan for 2½ hours on the government’s response to the pneumonia situation in Wuhan
    Hong Kong’s public hospitals admitted eight more people who had been to Wuhan in the past two weeks and presented with symptoms of either fever and respiratory infection or pneumonia
    Phila Siu,Elizabeth Cheung,Lilian Cheng
    Published: 12:17pm, 8 Jan, 2020

    Lawmakers had questioned whether Hong Kong had enough stocks of masks in the event of an outbreak. Photo: Winson Wong

    Hong Kong’s health minister on Wednesday came under pressure to seek more details on the mystery Wuhan pneumonia outbreak from the mainland Chinese government, as lawmakers expressed concerns that authorities there had not released updates on patient numbers since Sunday.

    The lawmakers tabled urgent questions on the outbreak as in the 24 hours to noon on Wednesday, Hong Kong’s public hospitals admitted eight more people who had been to Wuhan in central China in the past two weeks and presented with symptoms of either fever and respiratory infection or pneumonia.
  • This brings the total number of suspected cases in Hong Kong to 38, though 21 patients have been discharged.
  • Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee was grilled for 2½ hours in the Legislative Council on the government’s response to the pneumonia situation in Wuhan.
    Hong Kong officials increase powers in fight against Chinese ‘pneumonia’
    8 Jan 2020

    Some lawmakers said Chan must press the mainland authorities for the genetic map of the Wuhan virus so Hong Kong experts could help look into the disease in case of an outbreak locally. The Hong Kong government also needed to ask the mainland side whether other cities or provinces had also been infected, they said.
    The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission said on Sunday that 59 people had been infected with the unidentified strain, seven of whom were in a critical condition.
  • “That was from its last update on January 5. Today is already January 8,” Civic Party lawmaker Tanya Chan said. “Do you have ways to really find out how many cases there are on the mainland at present, in particular in Wuhan? Can you obtain the genetic map?”

    The commission said on Wednesday night that eight people with the virus had been discharged from hospital.
  • No other mainland government agencies had offered any updates.
    A source said the mainland health authorities were likely to announce results of the investigation on the virus in around a week.

    Some of the patients infected with the unknown pneumonia have been treated in Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan. Photo: Jun Mai
  • The World Health Organisation’s office in China, which said on Sunday it was closely monitoring the disease in Wuhan, offered no updates when asked on Wednesday.

    The Hong Kong government on Wednesday made it mandatory for all medical practitioners to notify the authorities of anyone suspected to have contracted the unidentified strain.
  • This was done by gazetting a bill to amend the Prevention and Control of Disease Ordinance, to include with immediate effect “severe respiratory disease associated with a novel infectious agent” as a statutory notifiable infectious disease. The law empowers officials to put patients in mandatory quarantine
  • The government has also stepped up checks on visitors coming from Wuhan by train or plane.
  • Other lawmakers, including the Democratic Party’s Helena Wong Pik-wan, were concerned whether there were also cases in other Chinese cities. They urged the minister to find out as there was no such information.
    Wuhan pneumonia not Sars, but virus unidentified as more hospitalised
    7 Jan 2020

    Civic Party lawmaker Kwok Ka-ki, a urologist, said he had talked to public hospital doctors who told him the government knew hardly anything about the Wuhan pneumonia. That made it difficult for doctors to provide the best treatment to those who developed symptoms after returning from Wuhan recently, Kwok added.
    The health secretary replied that the governments of Hong Kong, Macau and the mainland had in 2005 signed an agreement to notify each other if any major public health incidents were discovered. The government had been in close contact with the mainland authorities and the mechanism had been working well, she stressed.
    She believed the mainland would tell the Hong Kong government if such pneumonia cases were found outside Wuhan, adding she would continue to ask the authorities for more information about the disease.
    Mystery pneumonia infects at least 59 people in Wuhan, China
    Health services sector lawmaker Joseph Lee Kok-long challenged the government’s earlier announcement that the number of isolation beds in public hospitals could be raised from the current 480 to 1,400 in 72 hours.
    According to the latest figures, 15 out of 17 public hospitals had over-occupancy rates in medical wards as of midnight on Tuesday, ranging from 103 to 131 per cent, because of the higher number of diseases triggered by winter weather.
    On this, Chan insisted the increase could be done in 72 hours. But she admitted there was “significant room for improvement” regarding the overcrowding in hospitals.
    Hong Kong set to add mystery pneumonia to list of notifiable diseases
    7 Jan 2020

    Pro-government lawmakers, including Wilson Or Chong-shing, had concerns as to whether there were enough stocks of masks in the event of a local outbreak. Chan said public hospitals had enough masks to last three months. The government had talked to pharmacies, which said more stocks would arrive in the city in one to two weeks.
    The Hospital Authority said on Wednesday it was exploring the feasibility of deferring non-emergency surgeries and services among the measures at public hospitals to centralise resources and manpower to cope with suspected cases related to the Wuhan pneumonia.
    Meanwhile, infectious diseases expert Professor Yuen Kwok-yung from the University of Hong Kong suspected the unidentified virus that led to the Wuhan outbreak was a coronavirus strain from bats.
    That was because the Wuhan cases were not found with bird flu, flu or other known viruses, but the infections were suspected to be linked to game meat.
    “Bats still carry around a dozen coronavirus strains,” Yuen said. “There is a reason for us to speculate that the virus spread from bats to some wild animals, and then jumped to humans.”

    A student at PolyU developed a fever and persistent cough after returning from Wuhan and was taken to hospital. Photo: Handout
    He said viruses of a few major infectious diseases in the past, including severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) in 2003 and Middle East respiratory syndrome, which started in 2012, were also traced back to bats.
    “Theoretically, it is also possible for bats to spread the virus to humans directly. But very few people eat bats. However, many people eat masked palm civet and other wild animals,” Yuen said.
    Separately, a third Hong Kong education institution, Polytechnic University, has reported that a student developed a fever and persistent cough after returning from Wuhan recently.
    The case was reported to the government on Tuesday night and she was in a stable condition on Wednesday. The dormitory where she lived had been sterilised, PolyU said.
    Additional reporting by Linda Lew
  • SEE https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/search?q=WUTAN
    SEE https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/search?q=CHINA 
    SEE  https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/search?q=SARS 
    SEE  https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/search?q=PANDEMIC

Posted by at No comments:

Tuesday, January 28, 2020



Blogger Says China "stole Coronavirus from Canada and weaponized it into a Bioweapon."
— Bloggers on Sunday, January 26th, 2020 in an article

Websites spin unproven link between Canada, China about coronavirus outbreak

By Daniel Funke on Tuesday, January 28th, 2020 
Police stand guard outside Wuhan Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market, where a number of people related to the market fell ill with a virus in Wuhan, China, on Jan. 21, 2020. (AP)

A widely shared article on social media inaccurately claims Canada is the source of the 2019 coronavirus outbreak in China.
Zero Hedge, a blog with a track record of publishing false information, said in a Jan. 26 story that the coronavirus is part of a Chinese plot to develop a bioweapon. The article was republished from a website called Great Game India.
"Last year a mysterious shipment was caught smuggling Coronavirus from Canada. It was traced to Chinese agents working at a Canadian lab," the story reads. "Subsequent investigation by GreatGameIndia linked the agents to Chinese Biological Warfare Program from where the virus is suspected to have leaked causing the Wuhan Coronavirus outbreak."
The story weaves together unrelated facts to construct a conspiracy theory. Officials are still trying to determine the exact cause of the outbreak, but there’s no evidence of it being created for use as a bioweapon.
(Screenshot from Zero Hedge)
The article was flagged as part of Facebook’s efforts to combat false news and misinformation on its News Feed. (Read more about our partnership with Facebook.)
The virus, which originated in the central China city of Wuhan, has infected more than 4,000 people worldwide, and China has restricted travel within the country amid a rising death toll.
The Canadian lab
Great Game India claims that the current coronavirus outbreak can be traced to Chinese agents who infiltrated a Canadian lab to steal virus samples. But there’s no evidence for that.
The story focuses on the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg. In 2013, researchers there were investigating a new cluster of coronavirus infections that appeared to have originated in Saudi Arabia. 
Great Game India implies that disease is the same one that’s currently affecting China. But the lab was examining the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus. (There are seven kinds of coronaviruses that can infect humans.)
Great Game India goes on to claim that Chinese scientists working in the Canadian lab were "bio-warfare agents" and took the samples to the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
One of the scientists mentioned in the Great Game India story, Xiangguo Qiu, is under investigation for a possible "policy breach" after she was invited to the Wuhan lab twice a year for two years. Qiu, her husband and her students from China were removed from the lab in July 2019.
There are questions about what information Qiu shared with Chinese officials while visiting Wuhan, and the Canadian National Microbiology Laboratory has sent viruses to China in the past for research. But there is no evidence to support the claim that Qiu stole coronavirus samples and gave them to the Wuhan lab to create biological weapons.
The Wuhan lab
The assertion that the origin of the coronavirus outbreak is a Chinese lab near Wuhan also lacks evidence.
The Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory is a maximum-security biolab that deals with some of the world’s most dangerous pathogens, such as Ebola and the SARS coronavirus. Some experts have linked the lab to China’s biological warfare program. The country denies having such a program, but the State Department has raised concerns about China’s potential noncompliance with the Biological Weapons Convention, which bans the production of such weapons.
"Coincidentally, the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory is located only 20 miles away from the Huanan Seafood Market which is the epicenter of the Coronavirus outbreak dubbed the Wuhan Coronavirus," the Great Game India story reads.
As of now, however, the lab’s proximity to the seafood market is a coincidence, as there is no evidence that the lab is the source of the coronavirus outbreak.
The CDC and the World Health Organization are still investigating the cause of the coronavirus outbreak. In its most recent situation summary, the CDC said that both it and Chinese authorities had isolated the genome of the Wuhan coronavirus.
Their findings suggest "a likely single, recent emergence from a virus related to bat coronaviruses and the SARS coronavirus." Early reports suggested that the disease appeared to have originated at a seafood and animal market in Wuhan, and it spread from there to several Asian countries, Australia, France, Canada and the United States.
Our ruling
A Zero Hedge story claims that Chinese agents stole coronavirus samples from Canada to create a biological weapon, which has now caused an outbreak of the disease around the world.
A Chinese scientist who worked in a Canadian lab studying coronaviruses is under investigation for trips she took to Wuhan. But there’s no evidence she gave China coronavirus samples to develop a biological weapon. Plus, the lab worked on MERS, not the Wuhan coronavirus. The Wuhan lab mentioned in the story does deal with dangerous pathogens like coronaviruses, but there is no evidence that it is the source of the latest outbreak.
The story lacks evidence for its headline, so we rate it False.
Posted by at No comments:

Saturday, April 04, 2020

Hell is Coming and We Sold Out Our National Security For A Few Dollars

 EVEN INVESTMENT CAPITALISTS GET IT, THERE IS A REVOLUTION COMING AFTER THE RECESSION

Inan Dogan, PhD,Insider Monkey•April 3, 2020

Executive Summary: Two weeks ago we predicted that the U.S. death toll from COVID-19 would reach 20,000 by April 15th. The following article explains why.


 Article:

I am furious and frustrated. Once the greatest country on the face of this planet, the United States is going hat in hand to China, begging for a few respirators and masks. Anthony Fauci and the CDC know that nearly half of the infected people show no symptoms and stealthily spread the new coronavirus, yet their hands are tied trying to tell the American people to wear masks because the few that we do have rightfully belong to our healthcare workers. We are absolutely helpless.

Let’s start from the beginning. On December 31, China notified the World Health Organization about an unknown virus causing a SARS like disease. By January 2nd, there were 44 confirmed cases in Wuhan, obviously all of which were symptomatic cases. At least 6 of these patients died.

On January 3rd, Singapore started temperature screening all passengers arriving from Wuhan. That same day, Hong Kong reported two cases, both of whom travelled to Wuhan and displayed fever and pneumonia like symptoms.

On January 7th, the World Health Organization reported that Chinese experts isolated a novel coronavirus causing a new outbreak.

The first known COVID-19 death, a 61 year old male, occurred on January 9th, but China revealed this on January 11th.

Two new cases outside of China were reported on January 13th and 16th in Thailand and Japan; both patients had traveled to Wuhan.

The CDC announced that passengers from Wuhan would be screened at JFK starting on January 17th, and in San Francisco and Los Angeles on January 18th. At the time, the CDC didn’t know whether the virus could spread from person to person.

We discovered the first case of COVID-19 in the U.S. on January 21st. “A man from Washington state returned home after a trip to Wuhan, China, on Jan. 15, sought medical attention on Jan. 19 and now is in isolation at Providence Regional Medical Center in Everett, Wash.,” according to NPR.

America is a great country, but it seems like Singapore is greater when it comes to acting fast and detecting COVID-19 infections. We started screening passengers from Wuhan on the west coast 15 days after Singapore did.

China reported its second and third COVID-19 deaths on January 17th and January 20th. “Zhong Nanshan, who heads up China's National Health Commission, told Xinhua News Agency, China's official state-run news organization, that two cases of human-to-human transmission had been confirmed in China, one in Wuhan and one in Guangdong,” reported ABC news.

Three days later, on January 23rd, the World Health Organization’s director-general Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus calmed our nerves, saying “At this time, there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission outside China”, and decided not to declare the coronavirus outbreak a “global emergency”.

"On January 23, 2020, the Department of State ordered the departure of all non-emergency U.S. personnel and their family members from Wuhan" the State Department said. That’s the same day China cancelled its New Year celebrations and imposed extensive travel restrictions to Wuhan and surrounding municipalities.

On January 24th “A woman from Chicago who traveled to Wuhan, China, at the end of December and returned on Jan 13 represents the second travel-related case of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection diagnosed in the United States, according to officials from the Illinois Department of Public Health" University of Minnesota’s CIDRAP reported.

Also on January 24th the Chinese COVID-19 death toll stood at 26 (assuming that they weren’t lying about it or undercounting it).

On January 25th, China expanded travel restrictions to five other Chinese cities in Hubei, covering 56 million people. The Chinese death toll reached 56 the next day (kind of fishy, right? Just 56 people died but China is imposing unheard of lockdowns).

Also on January 25th the third case of a coronavirus infection was confirmed in Southern California, a traveler from Wuhan.

On January 26th, two more cases of the new coronavirus infection were detected in Arizona and Los Angeles, both with travel histories to Wuhan.

The death toll in China reached 106 on January 27th if you can believe it.

On January 29th, we evacuated 195 “Deep State Department” (as Trump calls it) employees from China to California. Wouldn’t it be more beneficial for us if they stayed isolated in China and provided human intelligence in terms of the extent of the COVID-19 outbreak within China?

On January 30th, the CDC confirmed the 6th coronavirus infection, also the first “known” human-to-human transmission within the U.S. Thankfully, the CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield let us know that "the immediate risk to the American public is low." Nevertheless, on that same day the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a public health emergency because their “greatest concern is the potential for the virus to spread to countries with weaker health systems, and which are ill-prepared to deal with it." Thank God we have a strong health system and are well-prepared to deal with this kind of outbreaks.

The clowns at the World Health Organization urged countries not to restrict travel or trade in response to COVID-19 on January 30th as well.

On January 31st, the CDC confirmed the seventh coronavirus infection, a male who traveled to Wuhan. “We are preparing as if this were the next pandemic, but we are hopeful still that this is not and will not be the case,” the director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Dr. Nancy Messonnier said after this news came out. Very comforting!!

On January 31st, Trump also announced that all foreign nationals who had traveled to China except the immediate family members of US citizens or permanent residents won’t be allowed into the U.S. effective February 2nd, 5 pm (EST). Better late than never, though why just China? The virus had spread to around two dozen countries by the end of January.

The next day Joe Biden sent the following tweet: “We are in the midst of a crisis with the coronavirus. We need to lead the way with science — not Donald Trump’s record of hysteria, xenophobia, and fear-mongering. He is the worst possible person to lead our country through a global health emergency.” So, if Biden were the POTUS, would he have listed to the clowns at the WHO, CDD, and NCIRD and have done nothing?

On February 1st, a Boston student who recently traveled to Wuhan became the 8th confirmed coronavirus case in the U.S.

On February 2nd, a Santa Clara woman became the ninth confirmed case. She also traveled to Wuhan. The 10th and 11th cases, a husband and wife from California, were also confirmed later that day. The husband traveled to Wuhan and the wife was infected by the husband.

On February 5th the twelfth known coronavirus case in the U.S. was confirmed, a Wisconsin man who traveled to Beijing and was exposed to known cases while there. In the meantime, 350 Americans from Wuhan arrived into the country and were quarantined.

On February 10th, the thirteenth known case of COVID-19 was identified, one of the evacuees from Wuhan.

On February 12, another evacuee from Wuhan was confirmed as the 14th case. The 13# and the 14# patients arrived in different flights from Wuhan and had no contact with each other in the U.S.

On February 13th, the CDC “confirmed another infection with Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in the United States. The patient is among a group of people under a federal quarantine order at JBSA-Lackland in Texas because of their recent return to the U.S. on a State Department-chartered flight that arrived on February 7, 2020,” from Wuhan.

On February 19th Iran confirmed its first coronavirus case and hours later reported two deaths from COVID-19. More importantly, “state news agency IRNA reported that they had not travelled abroad or even outside of Qom province prior to their deaths,” according to BBC. These two were the first two known community transmission of the new coronavirus outside of China. On that day, Trump was busy granting clemency to Blagojevich, Milken and Kerik, and the S&P 500 Index closed at 3386.

On February 21st, Italy reported the first local transmission of the new coronavirus, a 38-year male was believed to have contracted the virus after coming in contact with someone who had been to China.

On February 22nd Italy reported its first two deaths from COVID-19, two patients at two different locations.

That’s when I realized the gravity of the situation. I spent the next few days reading and researching the subject. On February 25th I came to the conclusion that it was just a matter of time that the new coronavirus will spread from Italy to other European countries and then to the United States.

One viable option for us to slow down the spread of this virus was to impose a complete travel ban (meaning no foreigners at all would be allowed to enter, and Americans arriving from other countries would be tested and put in a 14-day quarantine). Sure, this would have had a small economic impact on our economy as our GDP would take a 2.9% annualized hit, but we would save hundreds of thousands of jobs (and lives???).

The other alternative was burying our heads in the sand and pretending that everything was going to be magically ok. In this scenario I expected the recession to be deeper because this is the route initially taken by China and they were quickly forced to change course. So, I sent an email alert to our premium subscribers on February 26th.

That night, the CDC confirmed the first community transmission of the new coronavirus in California.

On February 27th, I also published a free article on our site and on Yahoo Finance with the title Recession is Imminent: We Need A Travel Ban NOW. I predicted that a US recession is imminent and that US stocks would go down by at least 20% in the next 3-6 months (you will notice a pattern of too conservative predictions by the end of this article). I also told you to short the market ETFs and buy long-term bonds.

One of the commenters said “Author needs to be sited for trying to cause hysteria”. Another said “Media fearmongering as usual.” A third one said “Where this person get his PhD from? Trump university? And in the end, seems he is more interested in protecting his stock.” A fourth one said “Wouldn’t a travel ban push the economy into an even bigger recession? The nonsense about bioterrorists (which, BTW, is not even a word according to Spell Check) is obviously just fear-mongering. I call fake news.”

That same day I went to Costco, bought a ton of food and ordered a freezer from Walmart. It didn’t occur to me to buy water or toilet paper that day. Costco was slightly more crowded than usual, so a few of our fellow Americans also saw this coming.

On February 28th, the second and third cases of unknown origin of the novel coronavirus were reported on the west coast.

On February 29th, the first death from COVID-19 was reported in Washington. It is now crystal clear to us that the new coronavirus is spreading uncontrollably within the United States.


On March 1st, New York confirmed its first case of COVID-19, a woman who recently traveled to Iran. Can you believe that New Yorkers were able to identify only a single case just a month ago?

On March 8th, I published another article with the title “Plunge Protection Team Gives You Another Opportunity To Short The Market”. S&P 500 Index closed at 2972 on Friday despite all the indications of a COVID-19 pandemic. As expected, we told our readers once again to short the market to protect their nest eggs. I said the following:

“I usually don’t publish my stock recommendations publicly before things happen. I put bread on the table by selling newsletter subscriptions. Once a year or so I make an exception. Make a note of this prediction. Better yet, do yourself a favor and hedge your market exposure. You will thank me later.”

I have yet to receive a thank you email. But that same day I received an email from a hedge fund honcho (though not the head honcho) from Manikay Partners who said “Why don’t you think this risk is already priced in? And in fact this is a buying opportunity? If the cases stabilize, interest rates are already lowered, and earnings will accelerate. Just my 2 cents -it’s quite easy to recommend shorting the market given all the fear, but the opposite might in fact be the correct trade. I don’t believe we will enter a recession.”

That article that he disagreed with also made the following prediction:

“Remember, Italy reported its 3rd coronavirus case on February 7th and its first death from coronavirus within 15 days. Fifteen days after that death, Italy has 7375 infections and 366 deaths. United States is roughly 3 weeks behind Italy in terms of the spread of the coronavirus. By the end of March, we will probably be in the same position as Italy is in now.”
As always, my predictions proved to be too conservative. At the end of March we reported 3,900 COVID-19 deaths.
Two weeks ago, on March 20th, I published my last article: “Hell is Coming: Here is the Mathematical Proof”. At the time, our death toll stood at 205.

I shared a very simple model that predicts the number of deaths and the actual number of infections through April 15th. I have an engineering undergrad and a PhD in financial economics. Trust me when I say I can develop very complicated models. You have to be really skilled to develop complicated models. However, it is extremely difficult to develop a simple model that can make accurate predictions and can also be understood by ordinary people.

I don’t want to take your time with sharing the details of the model (please click the link and read the article if you are curious). The model predicted that the U.S. death would reach 800 by March 26th (the actual death toll was 1042 on the morning of March 26th).

The model also predicts a U.S. death toll of 6400 for April 3rd. That’s today. We have about 12 hours to find out the actual death toll which currently sits at 6068.

Here is the first sentence of that article: “Right now 2 million Americans are infected with the coronavirus. The total U.S. death toll by April 15th will be more than 20,000.”

The 2 million U.S. coronavirus infections was an estimate for March 20th.

I also republished the same article on Yahoo Finance and it received more than 700 comments. Most readers couldn’t understand at all how my simple model worked. “After 5 months, there are only 250,000 infected globally. How is it that the US will magically have 2,000,000 infected when the rest of the world (including the originating country with 1.4 billion individuals vs the US's 350 million people) combined had 250,000?” asked one reader.

“Kinda sounds like a weather man to me. We could get up to 15 inches of snow and wind up with 2 inches. We don't know what's gonna happen and can't predict the future. This is exactly what put people into absolute panic mode,” another reader opined.

“I'm all for freedom of the press but this is out of control. All they do is fear monger anymore and someone needs to put a stop to it somehow,” a third reader said.

“The author is clearly pulling made up numbers out of thin air,” a fourth reader commented.

“Why do you scare people with your theory. These numbers haven't been seen anywhere else, and likely won't be here either,” another reader said.

The best feedback I received was the following email message:

“My name is Shawn xxxx (redacted) and I am a Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetist sending a message to Inan Dogan, PhD. I happened across his article Hell is Coming... on Yahoo and wanted to pass along the tremendous good it has done. I live in the XXX area (redacted) and using his Covid-19 model for the US, extroplated a model informing the XXX (redacted) 13 county community containing 7 million people. Back in early March upon completing this work was so alarmed I organized a 13 county healthcare communication channel via FB groups and now have over 1000 members. We are organizing in advance, taking care of each other, moving resources and responding proactively rather than reactively. This is all come about because of Inan's work and I wanted to pass along my immense thanks from all the physicians, nurses, and other healthcare workers that are benefiting from his foresight and wisdom. Thanks so much.”

I am not the hero here. Shawn and his colleagues are the true heroes. To hear him take the time out of his day to send goodwill my way warmed my heart. It is a shame that our first responders and frontline healthcare workers don’t even have the stupid $1 masks and PPEs, and are forced to put their lives on the line to help the sick.

A week after my article was published, another reader left the following comment: “And here we are in the future. On March 26, the United States was up to 1300 deaths. The predictions in this article were not fear mongering. They were math. Sadly the predicted numbers were on the low side. I am genuinely curious if any of the commenters from a week ago (SO many negative comments) have changed their opinions on this matter. I wish very much that this all was wrong, but here we sit in the reality of what is happening.”

Yesterday another reader summarized the general mood right now:

“So I read this article the day after it was published. I truly wanted it to be wrong or flawed in some manner. Unfortunately, if anything as the author stated, he was being overly conservative. I have continued to reread the article and the comments every couple of days. I am continually shocked at people who want to try to bash basic math as somehow partisan. I truly hope that the inability to accept basic facts and truths has not doomed our country to worse than otherwise predicted. I hope over the next few days that we will seem some positive effects of social distancing on this initial model. Btw I have noticed the nasty replies start to silent. Crickets.”

I want to provide some updated estimates for the next 3 weeks, but we are already at 3200 words. We need to use a more detailed model this time around because we need to take into account the effects of the reactionary policies (social distancing, stay at home orders, etc.) implemented over the last 2.5 weeks to slow down the spread of this virus.

We know that the number of infections doubles approximately every 3 days when we don’t take any actions. Since every metropolitan area started taking actions at different points in time, we now have to develop separate models for each metropolitan area and aggregate the predictions of each model to arrive at a national figure for the number of infections and projected death count.

There isn’t a pressing need now to estimate these figures anymore because Donald Trump pivoted a few days ago and shared more reasonable projections of 100K-240K deaths from COVID-19. I will publish my estimates in a few days.
This crisis showed us that we need to make fundamental changes to our “heads I win tails you lose” capitalist system. US corporations started to migrate their manufacturing operations into China 20 years ago. They wanted to save a buck and increase profits at the expense of our national security. Today, China is the undisputed leader in manufacturing, probably even better than Germany.

This coronavirus pandemic started in China. Did you read a single story about China needing ventilators and masks over the last 3 months? There are 1.4 billion people in China and every single one of them is wearing a mask in public. Yet here, our healthcare workers can’t find any to wear.

Now, we have to go hat in hand to China and ask for ventilators, masks, and other PPEs. How can we be this helpless? Aren’t you disgusted by this? I am furious. The republican politicians failed us. The democrats failed us. We need a completely new mindset.

You understand that we have to spend $2.2 trillion on a bailout package because we couldn’t take action on January 3rd the same way Singapore took action, or we couldn’t impose a total travel ban because our hospitality industry might get hurt. Well, now we practically imposed a similar travel ban after the horse bolted out of the barn. The new coronavirus is still spreading like a wildfire in several of our states, and their governors can’t put their states under a lockdown because it isn’t "practical".

You know what? They will have to do it sooner or later. If Chinese dictators can’t turn a blind eye to this COVID-19 menace, democratically elected governors can’t do it either. By delaying the response, they are giving the new coronavirus more time to spread.

There will be more time to talk about what needs to be done. Here is what I know. This isn’t going to be a shallow recession and our economy won’t snap back at the end of Q2 or in Q3. The system has to change fundamentally.



Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)