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Breaking The Ranks: Russia Legitimizes Its Former Foes – OpEd
Afghanistan’s Taliban government announced late earlier this month that Russia has become the inaugural country to officially recognize their government— the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA), a unique clerical dictatorship of its kind.
This mark a significant moment for the Taliban regime who were not formally recognized by a single nation, since toppling the US-backed republic in 2021. Their foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi called it a “courageous step” and hoped others will follow. Moscow said it would continue to support Kabul in security, counter-terrorism and combat against drug crime.
In April this year, Russia suspended its two decades long designation of Taliban as terrorist organization hoping it will boost their cooperation in security sector particularly against the regional chapter of Islamic State that attacked a concert hall near Moscow last year and killed 144 people. Four months after the attack, Russian President Putin called Taliban “allies” in the fight against terrorism at SCO summit in Astana and now his country has become the first to give official recognition to their government.
Interestingly, just three decades ago, Russia’s predecessor, the former Soviet Union, was famously fought and forced to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan by Afghan Mujahideen– many of whom or their second bread now constitute Taliban leadership, and their rank and file.
The Comrades and the Mullas:
Despite their complex past, this newfound rapprochement raises questions on how the two parties have reached this convergence? The answer is not simple. To put things in perspective, it needs assessment of the international, regional and domestic factors.
Several years before the Taliban takeover of Kabul, the comrades in Moscow started to establish contacts with the Mullas, when the latter had increased the prospects of their return to power by intensifying the brutal insurgency against Ashraf Ghani led government.
There were and remains to be serious doubts on how the security vacuum left by collapse of the government in Afghanistan and the withdrawal of US led NATO forces from the country would be filled.
To this end, the Taliban has ruthlessly reinforced their regime on Afghanistan by introducing strict laws and policing, cracking down on dissent and banning political parties resulting in a hardcore exclusive set-up, attracting international criticism.
On the Taliban’s counter-terrorism commitements to the world, the latter is largely skeptical as reflected by the successive UN reports pointing out the presence of militant outfits in the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.
To address these concerns, some countries especially in the neighborhood has exchanged diplomats to maintain channels of direct engagement with Kabul.
Russia faces security challenges from extremist militant groups especially the regional chapter of the Islamic State that also carries out sporadic attacks in Afghanistan including against the Taliban.
Moscow’s Taliban recognition is mainly triggered by the necessity of tackling these security threats. It is also in line with its broader geostrategic recalibration when it has locked its horns with the West in Ukraine.
Afghanistan’s other immediate neighbor and global giant China was the first country to appoint full ambassador to Taliban-controlled Kabul in 2023. It has been providing humanitarian help, and is working cautiously on some mining projects and vows to expand its business — including the promise of extending the multi-billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghanistan.
Business over human rights:
The US and its European allies has withheld their recognition of the Taliban regime making it conditional to the regime’s reneging on their repressive policies especially against women which the UN calls as gender apartheid. The Taliban has refused to compromise, calling it interference in their internal policies.
This has likely driven the Taliban to focus on its neighbors who prioritize stability, cooperation on counter-terrorism, migration, trade, connectivity projects and anti-narcotic campaigns over the group’s governance style.
However, Taliban think—as once said by their interior minister Sirajuddin Haqqani, that the US, its allies and the Taliban have recently ended decades’ long brutal war against each other which makes it harder for the West to recognize their former adversary this soon.
Russia’s taking the lead in formally recognizing the Taliban could potentially encourage Afghanistan’s Central Asian neighbors, Iran and China, to follow Moscow’s steps giving regional legitimacy to Taliban. Beijing was quick to welcome Moscow’s decision next day saying it supports the international community in enhancing engagement and exchanges with the Taliban government.
The South Asian neighbors seems to be broadly inclined to align with US policy vis-a-vis Taliban, however, the possibility remains that individual states within this region, and in the Middle East, may pursue independent diplomatic trajectories based on their strategic calculations.
The latest developments will contribute to the normalization of the Taliban repression of Afghan women and political opposition. As international validation comes, they will continue to disregard the imperative for domestic legitimacy.
If others follow Moscow, it would boost the confidence of the Taliban especially of their pro-engagement quarters and bring unity among them.
This could also serve as a wake-up call for the Afghan political figures and groups to set aside their differences and form a genuine opposition.
The Vice:
Despite recognition, the Moscow-Kabul relationship willnot be an easy road. Russia’s latest decision will not be received positively in Washington and some European capitals. Russia and China doesn’t seem to be able or willing to fill in for the recent US aid cuts to Afghanistan. However, the exchanges between Russian and Afghan businesses would likely increase, slightly easing up the pressure on Afghan economy reeling from western isolation.
Taliban’s powerful supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada has long held the opinion that opening up to full engagements with international community would bind them by the international conventions that brings obligations particularly in human rights. Hibatullah is afraid that it would eventually make his government surrender the agenda of establishing a Sharia-based system based on their strict interpretation of Islam.
This hesitancy is further reinforced by Taliban’s narrative of drawing the lines on religious grounds which serve as a challenge to making friends outside the fragile and indecisive Muslim communities. A clear example of this policy is the so-called “virtues and vices” law, ratified by their supreme leader last year, that has officially designated “friendship with and helping the infidels” as a “vice”. This probably limits the scope of cooperation even after recognition unless Hibatullah push himself to commit a “vice.” However, for the moment, at least at first glance, Russia’s recognition of their regime seems a breakthrough for the Taliban.
Abdullah Hasrat is an Afghan journalist who has been reporting on Afghanistan’s political, social, and humanitarian developments since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021. For three years, he served as a Kabul-based correspondent for Agence France-Presse (AFP), a leading international news agency. He holds a master’s degree in political science and previously served as Director of Communications at the Independent Directorate of Local Governance (IDLG) under the former Afghan government.
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