“We are not living in a European Green Deal era anymore,”
By AFP
September 18, 2025
The EU is wrangling over its climate targets with the clock ticking down on a key UN deadline - Copyright AFP NICOLAS TUCAT
Adrien DE CALAN, Umberto BACCHI
EU countries will seek Thursday to settle on an emissions-cutting plan to bring to a key UN conference in Brazil, as divisions on the bloc’s green agenda threaten its global leadership on climate.
Environment ministers for the 27-nation bloc are gathering in Brussels with the clock ticking down on a United Nations deadline to produce plans to fight global warming for 2035.
One of the world’s biggest greenhouse-gas emitters behind China, the United States and India, the EU has to date been the most committed to climate action, by some margin.
As such the bloc was hoping to pull ahead and derive its submission to November’s COP30 climate conference from a more ambitious 2040 goal.
But that is yet to be agreed by member states, leaving Brussels scrambling for a last-minute solution.
Denmark, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency, has suggested submitting to the UN a “statement of intent”, rather than a hard target.
That would include a pledge to cut emissions between 66.3 percent and 72.5 percent compared to 1990 levels — with the range expected to be narrowed down at a later stage.
“This approach would ensure that (the) EU does not go to (the) UN Climate Summit empty-handed,” said a spokesperson for the Danish presidency of the European Council.
But even that is hardly a done deal and talks on Thursday could prove lengthy. One European diplomat suggested reporters prepare “a sleeping bag”.
– ‘Better than nothing’ –
The nearly 200 countries party to the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate action were supposed to put forward updated policies in February, providing a tougher 2035 emissions reduction target and a detailed blueprint for achieving it.
But only a handful made the deadline, since extended to September — still allowing plans to be assessed before COP30 starts on November 10, in the Brazilian city of Belem.
While not as good as a formal submission the “statement of intent” was “much better than nothing”, said a senior EU diplomat.
“It sort of saves the EU face at international level,” added Elisa Giannelli, of the E3G climate advocacy group.
The UN has pushed for world leaders, among them EU chief Ursula von der Leyen, to announce their commitments at the General Assembly in New York next week.
The EU has set a goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050 under its so-called European Green Deal, and says it has already cut emissions by 37 percent compared to 1990.
But climate has increasingly taken a backseat in Brussels, as political winds turned.
With wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, security and defence are now top of mind, said Linda Kalcher, director of the Strategic Perspectives think tank, noting that EU leaders’ talks on climate are much less frequent now.
Right-wing electoral gains in several member states and the European Parliament have curbed ambitions, and the European Commission has pivoted to boosting industry, faced with fierce competition from China and US tariffs.
– ‘Short-sighted’ –
That was where the commission’s proposal to cut emissions by 90 percent by 2040, which was to inform the UN goal, got bogged down.
Denmark and Spain are among those pushing for approval. But others, like Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland, think it over-ambitious and detrimental to industry.
France, which is suffering from shaky finances and a prolonged political crisis, wants more clarity on the investment framework to support decarbonisation before committing.
“We are not living in a European Green Deal era anymore,” said Giannelli.
Rather than seeing climate action as “an opportunity for international trade, economic growth, and competitiveness”, some nations have taken the “short-sighted view” that it is a costly exercise benefiting “only climate”, she said.
Last week, Paris and Berlin called for the 2040 target to be discussed at a leaders’ summit in October — effectively pushing back a decision that the commission had hoped could have been reached Thursday.
The delay sent a “bad signal” and brought into question EU leadership, said Michael Sicaud-Clyet of environmental group WWF, adding that the bloc was “losing its credibility” on climate.
“We continue to work together to find a compromise,” Wopke Hoekstra, the European Commissioner for Climate, told AFP, adding that he thought a deal on 2040 could still be reached before COP30.
Ahead of IMO Meeting, Critiques of Net-Zero Framework Emerge
Following the Trump administration's pointed criticism of the IMO's net zero greenhouse gas framework, a growing chorus of voices from industry are proposing to relax the terms of the agreement, which was tentatively approved at MEPC 83 five months ago.
On Thursday, a group of large shipowners announced that they would like to see changes in the deal and have "grave concerns" about the current text. Signatories include Bahri, Frontline, Capital Group, TMS, Dynagas, Gaslog, Hanwha Shipping, Angelicoussis Group and Stolt Tankers, among others.
"As it stands, we do not believe the IMO NZF will serve effectively in support of decarbonizing the maritime industry," the owners told Reuters in a joint statement, adding that "realistic" adjustment was needed before adoption should be considered.
Separately, DNV has suggested a rethink of the deal's terms for LNG, currently the shipping industry's most popular alternative fuel choice. The availability of true zero-carbon fuel is low, and DNV forecasts that the production projects to make it are likely to face headwinds for some time. Citing "pragmatism," DNV CEO Knut Orbeck-Nilssen has advocated for a more accepting view of LNG within IMO's net-zero framework.
On the other side of the Atlantic, ABS has advocated for a full "timeout" to think through the details of the net-zero framework. Chairman and CEO Christopher J. Wiernicki recently advised that "achieving net zero for shipping by 2050 looks like a wildcard."
While the deal has its skeptics, the Getting to Zero Coalition - Maersk, NYK, Fincantieri, Gard, CMB.Tech, BV and LR, among many others - has urged IMO to pass it as written. "Every year that action is delayed will compound into further delays down the road, as existing projects are scrapped and the planning cycle must begin anew. The absence of global regulatory guidance will raise the costs of change in the long run—costs that the industry, countries, and consumers will bear," the Coalition wrote.
But the overall policy environment has also changed since IMO took the first step down road to carbon regulation nine years ago. Carbon reduction measures have fallen into disfavor in Washington, and face headwinds in Europe as well. France - once a stalwart proponent of climate action, and a key backer of the Paris Agreement - is now quietly pushing to slow down formalization of Europe's 2040 climate goals, Politico reports. A key vote on 2040 targets was scheduled for September 18, but was canceled last week after demands for a delay from France and Germany - the opposite of what might have been expected in years past.
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